Meta-analysis fine-mapping is often miscalibrated at single-variant resolution

Fine-mapping across diverse ancestries drives the discovery of putative causal variants underlying human complex traits and diseases

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of human complex traits or diseases often implicate genetic loci that span hundreds or thousands of genetic variants, many of which have similar statistical significance. While statistical fine-mapping in individuals of European ancestry has made important discoveries, cross-population fine-mapping has the potential to improve power and resolution by capitalizing on the genomic diversity across ancestries. Here we present SuSiEx, an accurate and computationally efficient method for cross-population fine-mapping. SuSiEx integrates data from an arbitrary number of ancestries, explicitly models population-specific allele frequencies and linkage disequilibrium patterns, accounts for multiple causal variants in a genomic region and can be applied to GWAS summary statistics. We comprehensively assessed the performance of SuSiEx using simulations. We further showed that SuSiEx improves the fine-mapping of a range of quantitative traits available in both the UK Biobank and Taiwan Biobank, and improves the fine-mapping of schizophrenia-associated loci by integrating GWAS across East Asian and European ancestries.

Fine mapping of candidate effector genes for heart rate

An elevated resting heart rate (RHR) is associated with increased cardiovascular mortality. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified > 350 loci. Uniquely, in this study we applied genetic fine-mapping leveraging tissue specific chromatin segmentation and colocalization analyses to identify causal variants and candidate effector genes for RHR. We used RHR GWAS summary statistics from 388,237 individuals of European ancestry from UK Biobank and performed fine mapping using publicly available genomic annotation datasets. High-confidence causal variants (accounting for > 75% posterior probability) were identified, and we collated candidate effector genes using a multi-omics approach that combined evidence from colocalisation with molecular quantitative trait loci (QTLs), and long-range chromatin interaction analyses. Finally, we performed druggability analyses to investigate drug repurposing opportunities. The fine mapping pipeline indicated 442 distinct RHR signals. For 90 signals, a single variant was identified as a high-confidence causal variant, of which 22 were annotated as missense. In trait-relevant tissues, 39 signals colocalised with cis-expression QTLs (eQTLs), 3 with cis-protein QTLs (pQTLs), and 75 had promoter interactions via Hi-C. In total, 262 candidate genes were highlighted (79% had promoter interactions, 15% had a colocalised eQTL, 8% had a missense variant and 1% had a colocalised pQTL), and, for the first time, enrichment in nervous system pathways. Druggability analyses highlighted ACHE, CALCRL, MYT1 and TDP1 as potential targets. Our genetic fine-mapping pipeline prioritised 262 candidate genes for RHR that warrant further investigation in functional studies, and we provide potential therapeutic targets to reduce RHR and cardiovascular mortality.

Fast and flexible joint fine-mapping of multiple traits via the Sum of Single Effects model

We introduce mvSuSiE, a multi-trait fine-mapping method for identifying putative causal variants from genetic association data (individual-level or summary data). mvSuSiE learns patterns of shared genetic effects from data, and exploits these patterns to improve power to identify causal SNPs. Comparisons on simulated data show that mvSuSiE is competitive in speed, power and precision with existing multi-trait methods, and uniformly improves on single-trait fine-mapping (SuSiE) in each trait separately. We applied mvSuSiE to jointly fine-map 16 blood cell traits using data from the UK Biobank. By jointly analyzing the traits and modeling heterogeneous effect sharing patterns, we discovered a much larger number of causal SNPs (>3,000) compared with single-trait fine-mapping, and with narrower credible sets. mvSuSiE also more comprehensively characterized the ways in which the genetic variants affect one or more blood cell traits; 68% of causal SNPs showed significant effects in more than one blood cell type.

Functional dissection of complex and molecular trait variants at single nucleotide resolution

Identifying the causal variants and mechanisms that drive complex traits and diseases remains a core problem in human genetics. The majority of these variants have individually weak effects and lie in non-coding gene-regulatory elements where we lack a complete understanding of how single nucleotide alterations modulate transcriptional processes to affect human phenotypes. To address this, we measured the activity of 221,412 trait-associated variants that had been statistically fine-mapped using a Massively Parallel Reporter Assay (MPRA) in 5 diverse cell-types. We show that MPRA is able to discriminate between likely causal variants and controls, identifying 12,025 regulatory variants with high precision. Although the effects of these variants largely agree with orthogonal measures of function, only 69% can plausibly be explained by the disruption of a known transcription factor (TF) binding motif. We dissect the mechanisms of 136 variants using saturation mutagenesis and assign impacted TFs for 91% of variants without a clear canonical mechanism. Finally, we provide evidence that epistasis is prevalent for variants in close proximity and identify multiple functional variants on the same haplotype at a small, but important, subset of trait-associated loci. Overall, our study provides a systematic functional characterization of likely causal common variants underlying complex and molecular human traits, enabling new insights into the regulatory grammar underlying disease risk.

Identification of 27 allele-specific regulatory variants in Parkinson's disease using a massively parallel reporter assay

Genome wide association studies (GWAS) have identified a number of genomic loci that are associated with Parkinson's disease (PD) risk. However, the majority of these variants lie in non-coding regions, and thus the mechanisms by which they influence disease development, and/or potential subtypes, remain largely elusive. To address this, we used a massively parallel reporter assay (MPRA) to screen the regulatory function of 5254 variants that have a known or putative connection to PD. We identified 138 loci with enhancer activity, of which 27 exhibited allele-specific regulatory activity in HEK293 cells. The identified regulatory variant(s) typically did not match the original tag variant within the PD associated locus, supporting the need for deeper exploration of these loci. The existence of allele specific transcriptional impacts within HEK293 cells, confirms that at least a subset of the PD associated regions mark functional gene regulatory elements. Future functional studies that confirm the putative targets of the empirically verified regulatory variants will be crucial for gaining a greater understanding of how gene regulatory network(s) modulate PD risk.

Multi-ancestry genome-wide association study of major depression aids locus discovery, fine mapping, gene prioritization and causal inference

Most genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of major depression (MD) have been conducted in samples of European ancestry. Here we report a multi-ancestry GWAS of MD, adding data from 21 cohorts with 88,316 MD cases and 902,757 controls to previously reported data. This analysis used a range of measures to define MD and included samples of African (36% of effective sample size), East Asian (26%) and South Asian (6%) ancestry and Hispanic/Latin American participants (32%). The multi-ancestry GWAS identified 53 significantly associated novel loci. For loci from GWAS in European ancestry samples, fewer than expected were transferable to other ancestry groups. Fine mapping benefited from additional sample diversity. A transcriptome-wide association study identified 205 significantly associated novel genes. These findings suggest that, for MD, increasing ancestral and global diversity in genetic studies may be particularly important to ensure discovery of core genes and inform about transferability of findings.

A cross-ancestry genome-wide meta-analysis, fine-mapping, and gene prioritization approach to characterize the genetic architecture of adiponectin

Previous genome-wide association studies (GWASs) for adiponectin, a complex trait linked to type 2 diabetes and obesity, identified >20 associated loci. However, most loci were identified in populations of European ancestry, and many of the target genes underlying the associations remain unknown. We conducted a cross-ancestry adiponectin GWAS meta-analysis in ≤46,434 individuals from the Metabolic Syndrome in Men (METSIM) cohort and the ADIPOGen and AGEN consortiums. We combined study-specific association summary statistics using a fixed-effects, inverse variance-weighted approach. We identified 22 loci associated with adiponectin (p < 5×10-8), including 15 known and seven previously unreported loci. Among individuals of European ancestry, Genome-wide Complex Traits Analysis joint conditional analysis (GCTA-COJO) identified 14 additional distinct signals at the ADIPOQ, CDH13, HCAR1, and ZNF664 loci. Leveraging the cross-ancestry data, FINEMAP + SuSiE identified 45 causal variants (PP > 0.9), which also exhibited potential pleiotropy for cardiometabolic traits. To prioritize target genes at associated loci, we propose a combinatorial likelihood scoring formalism (Gene Priority Score [GPScore]) based on measures derived from 11 gene prioritization strategies and the physical distance to the transcription start site. With GPScore, we prioritize the 30 most probable target genes underlying the adiponectin-associated variants in the cross-ancestry analysis, including well-known causal genes (e.g., ADIPOQ, CDH13) and additional genes (e.g., CSF1, RGS17). Functional association networks revealed complex interactions of prioritized genes, their functionally connected genes, and their underlying pathways centered around insulin and adiponectin signaling, indicating an essential role in regulating energy balance in the body, inflammation, coagulation, fibrinolysis, insulin resistance, and diabetes. Overall, our analyses identify and characterize adiponectin association signals and inform experimental interrogation of target genes for adiponectin.

Improving fine-mapping by modeling infinitesimal effects

Fine-mapping aims to identify causal genetic variants for phenotypes. Bayesian fine-mapping algorithms (for example, SuSiE, FINEMAP, ABF and COJO-ABF) are widely used, but assessing posterior probability calibration remains challenging in real data, where model misspecification probably exists, and true causal variants are unknown. We introduce replication failure rate (RFR), a metric to assess fine-mapping consistency by downsampling. SuSiE, FINEMAP and COJO-ABF show high RFR, indicating potential overconfidence in their output. Simulations reveal that nonsparse genetic architecture can lead to miscalibration, while imputation noise, nonuniform distribution of causal variants and quality control filters have minimal impact. Here we present SuSiE-inf and FINEMAP-inf, fine-mapping methods modeling infinitesimal effects alongside fewer larger causal effects. Our methods show improved calibration, RFR and functional enrichment, competitive recall and computational efficiency. Notably, using our methods' posterior effect sizes substantially increases polygenic risk score accuracy over SuSiE and FINEMAP. Our work improves causal variant identification for complex traits, a fundamental goal of human genetics.

Russian Biodiversity Collections: A Professional Opinion Survey

Biodiversity collections are important vehicles for protecting endangered wildlife in situations of adverse anthropogenic influence. In Russia, there are currently a number of institution- and museum-based biological collections, but there are no nation-wide centres of biodiversity collections. In this paper, we report on the results of our survey of 324 bioconservation, big-data, and ecology specialists from different regions of Russia in regard to the necessity to create several large national biodiversity centres of wildlife protection. The survey revealed specific goals that have to be fulfilled during the development of these centres for the protection and restoration of endangered wildlife species. The top three problems/tasks (topics) are the following: (1) the necessity to create large national centres for different types of specimens; (2) the full sequencing and creation of different "omic" (genomic, proteomic, transcriptomic, etc.) databases; (3) full digitisation of a biodiversity collection/centre. These goals may constitute a guideline for the future of biodiversity collections in Russia that would be targeted at protecting and restoring endangered species. With the due network service level, the translation of the website into English, and permission from the regulator (Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Russian Federation), it can also become an international project.

East Asian-specific and cross-ancestry genome-wide meta-analyses provide mechanistic insights into peptic ulcer disease

Peptic ulcer disease (PUD) refers to acid-induced injury of the digestive tract, occurring mainly in the stomach (gastric ulcer (GU)) or duodenum (duodenal ulcer (DU)). In the present study, we conducted a large-scale, cross-ancestry meta-analysis of PUD combining genome-wide association studies with Japanese and European studies (52,032 cases and 905,344 controls), and discovered 25 new loci highly concordant across ancestries. An examination of GU and DU genetic architecture demonstrated that GUs shared the same risk loci as DUs, although with smaller genetic effect sizes and higher polygenicity than DUs, indicating higher heterogeneity of GUs. Helicobacter pylori (HP)-stratified analysis found an HP-related host genetic locus. Integrative analyses using bulk and single-cell transcriptome profiles highlighted the genetic factors of PUD being enriched in the highly expressed genes in stomach tissues, especially in somatostatin-producing D cells. Our results provide genetic evidence that gastrointestinal cell differentiations and hormone regulations are critical in PUD etiology.

Polygenic prediction across populations is influenced by ancestry, genetic architecture, and methodology

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) developed from multi-ancestry genome-wide association studies (GWASs), PRSmulti, hold promise for improving PRS accuracy and generalizability across populations. To establish best practices for leveraging the increasing diversity of genomic studies, we investigated how various factors affect the performance of PRSmulti compared with PRSs constructed from single-ancestry GWASs (PRSsingle). Through extensive simulations and empirical analyses, we showed that PRSmulti overall outperformed PRSsingle in understudied populations, except when the understudied population represented a small proportion of the multi-ancestry GWAS. Furthermore, integrating PRSs based on local ancestry-informed GWASs and large-scale, European-based PRSs improved predictive performance in understudied African populations, especially for less polygenic traits with large-effect ancestry-enriched variants. Our work highlights the importance of diversifying genomic studies to achieve equitable PRS performance across ancestral populations and provides guidance for developing PRSs from multiple studies.

Privacy-preserving federated genome-wide association studies via dynamic sampling

MOTIVATION

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) benefit from the increasing availability of genomic data and cross-institution collaborations. However, sharing data across institutional boundaries jeopardizes medical data confidentiality and patient privacy. While modern cryptographic techniques provide formal secure guarantees, the substantial communication and computational overheads hinder the practical application of large-scale collaborative GWAS.

RESULTS

This work introduces an efficient framework for conducting collaborative GWAS on distributed datasets, maintaining data privacy without compromising the accuracy of the results. We propose a novel two-step strategy aimed at reducing communication and computational overheads, and we employ iterative and sampling techniques to ensure accurate results. We instantiate our approach using logistic regression, a commonly used statistical method for identifying associations between genetic markers and the phenotype of interest. We evaluate our proposed methods using two real genomic datasets and demonstrate their robustness in the presence of between-study heterogeneity and skewed phenotype distributions using a variety of experimental settings. The empirical results show the efficiency and applicability of the proposed method and the promise for its application for large-scale collaborative GWAS.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

The source code and data are available at https://github.com/amioamo/TDS.

Colocalization of expression transcripts with COVID-19 outcomes is rare across cell states, cell types and organs

Identifying causal genes at GWAS loci can help pinpoint targets for therapeutic interventions. Expression studies can disentangle such loci but signals from expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) often fail to colocalize-which means that the genetic control of measured expression is not shared with the genetic control of disease risk. This may be because gene expression is measured in the wrong cell type, physiological state, or organ. We tested whether Mendelian randomization (MR) could identify genes at loci influencing COVID-19 outcomes and whether the colocalization of genetic control of expression and COVID-19 outcomes was influenced by cell type, cell stimulation, and organ. We conducted MR of cis-eQTLs from single cell (scRNA-seq) and bulk RNA sequencing. We then tested variables that could influence colocalization, including cell type, cell stimulation, RNA sequencing modality, organ, symptoms of COVID-19, and SARS-CoV-2 status among individuals with symptoms of COVID-19. The outcomes used to test colocalization were COVID-19 severity and susceptibility as assessed in the Host Genetics Initiative release 7. Most transcripts identified using MR did not colocalize when tested across cell types, cell state and in different organs. Most that did colocalize likely represented false positives due to linkage disequilibrium. In general, colocalization was highly variable and at times inconsistent for the same transcript across cell type, cell stimulation and organ. While we identified factors that influenced colocalization for select transcripts, identifying 33 that mediate COVID-19 outcomes, our study suggests that colocalization of expression with COVID-19 outcomes is partially due to noisy signals even after following quality control and sensitivity testing. These findings illustrate the present difficulty of linking expression transcripts to disease outcomes and the need for skepticism when observing eQTL MR results, even accounting for cell types, stimulation state and different organs.

KidneyGPS: a user-friendly web application to help prioritize kidney function genes and variants based on evidence from genome-wide association studies

BACKGROUND

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified hundreds of genetic loci associated with kidney function. By combining these findings with post-GWAS information (e.g., statistical fine-mapping to identify independent association signals and to narrow down signals to causal variants; or different sources of annotation data), new hypotheses regarding physiology and disease aetiology can be obtained. These hypotheses need to be tested in laboratory experiments, for example, to identify new therapeutic targets. For this purpose, the evidence obtained from GWAS and post-GWAS analyses must be processed and presented in a way that they are easily accessible to kidney researchers without specific GWAS expertise. MAIN: Here we present KidneyGPS, a user-friendly web-application that combines genetic variant association for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) from the Chronic Kidney Disease Genetics consortium with annotation of (i) genetic variants with functional or regulatory effects ("SNP-to-gene" mapping), (ii) genes with kidney phenotypes in mice or human ("gene-to-phenotype"), and (iii) drugability of genes (to support re-purposing). KidneyGPS adopts a comprehensive approach summarizing evidence for all 5906 genes in the 424 GWAS loci for eGFR identified previously and the 35,885 variants in the 99% credible sets of 594 independent signals. KidneyGPS enables user-friendly access to the abundance of information by search functions for genes, variants, and regions. KidneyGPS also provides a function ("GPS tab") to generate lists of genes with specific characteristics thus enabling customizable Gene Prioritisation (GPS). These specific characteristics can be as broad as any gene in the 424 loci with a known kidney phenotype in mice or human; or they can be highly focussed on genes mapping to genetic variants or signals with particularly with high statistical support. KidneyGPS is implemented with RShiny in a modularized fashion to facilitate update of input data ( https://kidneygps.ur.de/gps/ ).

CONCLUSION

With the focus on kidney function related evidence, KidneyGPS fills a gap between large general platforms for accessing GWAS and post-GWAS results and the specific needs of the kidney research community. This makes KidneyGPS an important platform for kidney researchers to help translate in silico research results into in vitro or in vivo research.

Extremely sparse models of linkage disequilibrium in ancestrally diverse association studies

Linkage disequilibrium (LD) is the correlation among nearby genetic variants. In genetic association studies, LD is often modeled using large correlation matrices, but this approach is inefficient, especially in ancestrally diverse studies. In the present study, we introduce LD graphical models (LDGMs), which are an extremely sparse and efficient representation of LD. LDGMs are derived from genome-wide genealogies; statistical relationships among alleles in the LDGM correspond to genealogical relationships among haplotypes. We published LDGMs and ancestry-specific LDGM precision matrices for 18 million common variants (minor allele frequency >1%) in five ancestry groups, validated their accuracy and demonstrated order-of-magnitude improvements in runtime for commonly used LD matrix computations. We implemented an extremely fast multiancestry polygenic prediction method, BLUPx-ldgm, which performs better than a similar method based on the reference LD correlation matrix. LDGMs will enable sophisticated methods that scale to ancestrally diverse genetic association data across millions of variants and individuals.

Single-cell genomics improves the discovery of risk variants and genes of atrial fibrillation

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have linked hundreds of loci to cardiac diseases. However, in most loci the causal variants and their target genes remain unknown. We developed a combined experimental and analytical approach that integrates single cell epigenomics with GWAS to prioritize risk variants and genes. We profiled accessible chromatin in single cells obtained from human hearts and leveraged the data to study genetics of Atrial Fibrillation (AF), the most common cardiac arrhythmia. Enrichment analysis of AF risk variants using cell-type-resolved open chromatin regions (OCRs) implicated cardiomyocytes as the main mediator of AF risk. We then performed statistical fine-mapping, leveraging the information in OCRs, and identified putative causal variants in 122 AF-associated loci. Taking advantage of the fine-mapping results, our novel statistical procedure for gene discovery prioritized 46 high-confidence risk genes, highlighting transcription factors and signal transduction pathways important for heart development. In summary, our analysis provides a comprehensive map of AF risk variants and genes, and a general framework to integrate single-cell genomics with genetic studies of complex traits.

Nuclear genetic control of mtDNA copy number and heteroplasmy in humans

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) is a maternally inherited, high-copy-number genome required for oxidative phosphorylation1. Heteroplasmy refers to the presence of a mixture of mtDNA alleles in an individual and has been associated with disease and ageing. Mechanisms underlying common variation in human heteroplasmy, and the influence of the nuclear genome on this variation, remain insufficiently explored. Here we quantify mtDNA copy number (mtCN) and heteroplasmy using blood-derived whole-genome sequences from 274,832 individuals and perform genome-wide association studies to identify associated nuclear loci. Following blood cell composition correction, we find that mtCN declines linearly with age and is associated with variants at 92 nuclear loci. We observe that nearly everyone harbours heteroplasmic mtDNA variants obeying two principles: (1) heteroplasmic single nucleotide variants tend to arise somatically and accumulate sharply after the age of 70 years, whereas (2) heteroplasmic indels are maternally inherited as mixtures with relative levels associated with 42 nuclear loci involved in mtDNA replication, maintenance and novel pathways. These loci may act by conferring a replicative advantage to certain mtDNA alleles. As an illustrative example, we identify a length variant carried by more than 50% of humans at position chrM:302 within a G-quadruplex previously proposed to mediate mtDNA transcription/replication switching2,3. We find that this variant exerts cis-acting genetic control over mtDNA abundance and is itself associated in-trans with nuclear loci encoding machinery for this regulatory switch. Our study suggests that common variation in the nuclear genome can shape variation in mtCN and heteroplasmy dynamics across the human population.

sfkit: a web-based toolkit for secure and federated genomic analysis

Advances in genomics are increasingly depending upon the ability to analyze large and diverse genomic data collections, which are often difficult to amass due to privacy concerns. Recent works have shown that it is possible to jointly analyze datasets held by multiple parties, while provably preserving the privacy of each party's dataset using cryptographic techniques. However, these tools have been challenging to use in practice due to the complexities of the required setup and coordination among the parties. We present sfkit, a secure and federated toolkit for collaborative genomic studies, to allow groups of collaborators to easily perform joint analyses of their datasets without compromising privacy. sfkit consists of a web server and a command-line interface, which together support a range of use cases including both auto-configured and user-supplied computational environments. sfkit provides collaborative workflows for the essential tasks of genome-wide association study (GWAS) and principal component analysis (PCA). We envision sfkit becoming a one-stop server for secure collaborative tools for a broad range of genomic analyses. sfkit is open-source and available at: https://sfkit.org.

Genetic fine-mapping from summary data using a nonlocal prior improves the detection of multiple causal variants

MOTIVATION

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been successful in identifying genomic loci associated with complex traits. Genetic fine-mapping aims to detect independent causal variants from the GWAS-identified loci, adjusting for linkage disequilibrium patterns.

RESULTS

We present "FiniMOM" (fine-mapping using a product inverse-moment prior), a novel Bayesian fine-mapping method for summarized genetic associations. For causal effects, the method uses a nonlocal inverse-moment prior, which is a natural prior distribution to model non-null effects in finite samples. A beta-binomial prior is set for the number of causal variants, with a parameterization that can be used to control for potential misspecifications in the linkage disequilibrium reference. The results of simulations studies aimed to mimic a typical GWAS on circulating protein levels show improved credible set coverage and power of the proposed method over current state-of-the-art fine-mapping method SuSiE, especially in the case of multiple causal variants within a locus.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

https://vkarhune.github.io/finimom/.

Cross-ancestry genome-wide association meta-analyses of hippocampal and subfield volumes

The hippocampus is critical for memory and cognition and neuropsychiatric disorders, and its subfields differ in architecture and function. Genome-wide association studies on hippocampal and subfield volumes are mainly conducted in European populations; however, other ancestral populations are under-represented. Here we conduct cross-ancestry genome-wide association meta-analyses in 65,791 individuals for hippocampal volume and 38,977 for subfield volumes, including 7,009 individuals of East Asian ancestry. We identify 339 variant-trait associations at P < 1.13 × 10^-9 for 44 hippocampal traits, including 23 new associations. Common genetic variants have similar effects on hippocampal traits across ancestries, although ancestry-specific associations exist. Cross-ancestry analysis improves the fine-mapping precision and the prediction performance of polygenic scores in under-represented populations. These genetic variants are enriched for Wnt signaling and neuron differentiation and affect cognition, emotion and neuropsychiatric disorders. These findings may provide insight into the genetic architectures of hippocampal and subfield volumes.

CARMA is a new Bayesian model for fine-mapping in genome-wide association meta-analyses

Fine-mapping is commonly used to identify putative causal variants at genome-wide significant loci. Here we propose a Bayesian model for fine-mapping that has several advantages over existing methods, including flexible specification of the prior distribution of effect sizes, joint modeling of summary statistics and functional annotations and accounting for discrepancies between summary statistics and external linkage disequilibrium in meta-analyses. Using simulations, we compare performance with commonly used fine-mapping methods and show that the proposed model has higher power and lower false discovery rate (FDR) when including functional annotations, and higher power, lower FDR and higher coverage for credible sets in meta-analyses. We further illustrate our approach by applying it to a meta-analysis of Alzheimer's disease genome-wide association studies where we prioritize putatively causal variants and genes.

Fast and accurate Bayesian polygenic risk modeling with variational inference

The advent of large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWASs) has motivated the development of statistical methods for phenotype prediction with single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array data. These polygenic risk score (PRS) methods use a multiple linear regression framework to infer joint effect sizes of all genetic variants on the trait. Among the subset of PRS methods that operate on GWAS summary statistics, sparse Bayesian methods have shown competitive predictive ability. However, most existing Bayesian approaches employ Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, which are computationally inefficient and do not scale favorably to higher dimensions, for posterior inference. Here, we introduce variational inference of polygenic risk scores (VIPRS), a Bayesian summary statistics-based PRS method that utilizes variational inference techniques to approximate the posterior distribution for the effect sizes. Our experiments with 36 simulation configurations and 12 real phenotypes from the UK Biobank dataset demonstrated that VIPRS is consistently competitive with the state-of-the-art in prediction accuracy while being more than twice as fast as popular MCMC-based approaches. This performance advantage is robust across a variety of genetic architectures, SNP heritabilities, and independent GWAS cohorts. In addition to its competitive accuracy on the "White British" samples, VIPRS showed improved transferability when applied to other ethnic groups, with up to 1.7-fold increase in R2 among individuals of Nigerian ancestry for low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol. To illustrate its scalability, we applied VIPRS to a dataset of 9.6 million genetic markers, which conferred further improvements in prediction accuracy for highly polygenic traits, such as height.

Genetic architecture of the inflammatory bowel diseases across East Asian and European ancestries

Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs) are chronic disorders of the gastrointestinal tract with the following two subtypes: Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). To date, most IBD genetic associations were derived from individuals of European (EUR) ancestries. Here we report the largest IBD study of individuals of East Asian (EAS) ancestries, including 14,393 cases and 15,456 controls. We found 80 IBD loci in EAS alone and 320 when meta-analyzed with ~370,000 EUR individuals (~30,000 cases), among which 81 are new. EAS-enriched coding variants implicate many new IBD genes, including ADAP1 and GIT2. Although IBD genetic effects are generally consistent across ancestries, genetics underlying CD appears more ancestry dependent than UC, driven by allele frequency (NOD2) and effect (TNFSF15). We extended the IBD polygenic risk score (PRS) by incorporating both ancestries, greatly improving its accuracy and highlighting the importance of diversity for the equitable deployment of PRS.

Nuclear genetic control of mtDNA copy number and heteroplasmy in humans

Human mitochondria contain a high copy number, maternally transmitted genome (mtDNA) that encodes 13 proteins required for oxidative phosphorylation. Heteroplasmy arises when multiple mtDNA variants co-exist in an individual and can exhibit complex dynamics in disease and in aging. As all proteins involved in mtDNA replication and maintenance are nuclear-encoded, heteroplasmy levels can, in principle, be under nuclear genetic control, however this has never been shown in humans. Here, we develop algorithms to quantify mtDNA copy number (mtCN) and heteroplasmy levels using blood-derived whole genome sequences from 274,832 individuals of diverse ancestry and perform GWAS to identify nuclear loci controlling these traits. After careful correction for blood cell composition, we observe that mtCN declines linearly with age and is associated with 92 independent nuclear genetic loci. We find that nearly every individual carries heteroplasmic variants that obey two key patterns: (1) heteroplasmic single nucleotide variants are somatic mutations that accumulate sharply after age 70, while (2) heteroplasmic indels are maternally transmitted as mtDNA mixtures with resulting levels influenced by 42 independent nuclear loci involved in mtDNA replication, maintenance, and novel pathways. These nuclear loci do not appear to act by mtDNA mutagenesis, but rather, likely act by conferring a replicative advantage to specific mtDNA molecules. As an illustrative example, the most common heteroplasmy we identify is a length variant carried by >50% of humans at position m.302 within a G-quadruplex known to serve as a replication switch. We find that this heteroplasmic variant exerts cis -acting genetic control over mtDNA abundance and is itself under trans -acting genetic control of nuclear loci encoding protein components of this regulatory switch. Our study showcases how nuclear haplotype can privilege the replication of specific mtDNA molecules to shape mtCN and heteroplasmy dynamics in the human population.