Mosquito-borne arboviruses in Australia: the current scene and implications of climate change for human health

Arboviruses in Mammals in the Neotropics: A Systematic Review to Strengthen Epidemiological Monitoring Strategies and Conservation Medicine

Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) are a diverse group of ribonucleic acid (RNA) viruses, with the exception of African swine fever virus, that are transmitted by hematophagous arthropods to a vertebrate host. They are the important cause of many diseases due to their ability to spread in different environments and their diversity of vectors. Currently, there is no information on the geographical distribution of the diseases because the routes of transmission and the mammals (wild or domestic) that act as potential hosts are poorly documented or unknown. We conducted a systematic review from 1967 to 2021 to identify the diversity of arboviruses, the areas, and taxonomic groups that have been monitored, the prevalence of positive records, and the associated risk factors. We identified forty-three arboviruses in nine mammalian orders distributed in eleven countries. In Brazil, the order primates harbor the highest number of arbovirus records. The three most recorded arboviruses were Venezuelan equine encephalitis, Saint Louis encephalitis and West Nile virus. Serum is the most used sample to obtain arbovirus records. Deforestation is identified as the main risk factor for arbovirus transmission between different species and environments (an odds ratio of 1.46 with a 95% confidence interval: 1.34-1.59). The results show an increase in the sampling effort over the years in the neotropical region. Despite the importance of arboviruses for public health, little is known about the interaction of arboviruses, their hosts, and vectors, as some countries and mammalian orders have not yet been monitored. Long-term and constant monitoring allows focusing research on the analysis of the interrelationships and characteristics of each component animal, human, and their environment to understand the dynamics of the diseases and guide epidemiological surveillance and vector control programs. The biodiversity of the Neotropics should be considered to support epidemiological monitoring strategies.

Pathogenesis of West Nile Virus Lineage 2 in Domestic Geese after Experimental Infection

West Nile virus (WNV) is an emerging infectious pathogen circulating between mosquitoes and birds but also infecting mammals. WNV has become autochthonous in Germany, causing striking mortality rates in avifauna and occasional diseases in humans and horses. We therefore wanted to assess the possible role of free-ranging poultry in the WNV transmission cycle and infected 15 goslings with WNV lineage 2 (German isolate). The geese were monitored daily and sampled regularly to determine viremia, viral shedding, and antibody development by molecular and serological methods. Geese were euthanized at various time points post-infection (pi). All infected geese developed variable degrees of viremia from day 1 to day 10 (maximum) and actively shed virus from days 2 to 7 post-infection. Depending on the time of death, the WN viral genome was detected in all examined tissue samples in at least one individual by RT-qPCR and viable virus was even re-isolated, except for in the liver. Pathomorphological lesions as well as immunohistochemically detectable viral antigens were found mainly in the brain. Furthermore, all of the geese seroconverted 6 days pi at the latest. In conclusion, geese are presumably not functioning as important amplifying hosts but are suitable sentinel animals for WNV surveillance.

TIR-Domain-Containing Adapter-Inducing Interferon-β (TRIF)-Dependent Antiviral Responses Protect Mice against Ross River Virus Disease

Ross River virus (RRV) is the major mosquito-borne virus in the South Pacific region. RRV infections are characterized by arthritic symptoms, which can last from several weeks to months. Type I interferon (IFN), the primary antiviral innate immune response, is able to modulate adaptive immune responses. The relationship between the protective role of type I IFN and the induction of signaling proteins that drive RRV disease pathogenesis remains poorly understood. In the present study, the role of TIR-domain-containing adapter-inducing interferon-β (TRIF), an essential signaling adaptor protein downstream of Toll-like receptor (TLR) 3, a key single-stranded RNA (ssRNA)-sensing receptor, was investigated. We found that TRIF^-/- mice were highly susceptible to RRV infection, with severe disease, high viremia, and a low type I IFN response early during disease development, which suggests the TLR3-TRIF axis may engage early in response to RRV infection. The number and the activation level of CD4⁺ T cells, CD8⁺ T cells, and NK cells were reduced in TRIF^-/- mice compared to those in infected wild-type (WT) mice. In addition, the number of germinal center B cells was lower in TRIF^-/- mice than WT mice following RRV infection, with lower titers of IgG antibodies detected in infected TRIF^-/- mice compared to WT. Interestingly, the requirement for TRIF to promote immunoglobulin class switch recombination was at the level of the local immune microenvironment rather than B cells themselves. The slower resolution of RRV disease in TRIF^-/- mice was associated with persistence of the RRV genome in muscle tissue and a continuing IFN response. IMPORTANCE RRV has been prevalent in the South Pacific region for decades and causes substantial economic and social costs. Though RRV is geographically restricted, a number of other alphaviruses have spread globally due to expansion of the mosquito vectors and increased international travel. Since over 30 species of mosquitoes have been implicated as potent vectors for RRV dissemination, RRV has the potential to further expand its distribution. In the pathogenesis of RRV disease, it is still not clear how innate immune responses synergize with adaptive immune responses. Type I IFN is crucial for bridging innate to adaptive immune responses to viral invasion. Hence, key signaling proteins in type I IFN induction pathways, which are important for type I IFN modulation, may also play critical roles in viral pathogenesis. This study provides insight into the role of TRIF in RRV disease development.

The Putative Roles and Functions of Indel, Repetition and Duplication Events in Alphavirus Non-Structural Protein 3 Hypervariable Domain (nsP3 HVD) in Evolution, Viability and Re-Emergence

Alphavirus non-structural proteins 1–4 (nsP1, nsP2, nsP3, and nsP4) are known to be crucial for alphavirus RNA replication and translation. To date, nsP3 has been demonstrated to mediate many virus–host protein–protein interactions in several fundamental alphavirus mechanisms, particularly during the early stages of replication. However, the molecular pathways and proteins networks underlying these mechanisms remain poorly described. This is due to the low genetic sequence homology of the nsP3 protein among the alphavirus species, especially at its 3′ C-terminal domain, the hypervariable domain (HVD). Moreover, the nsP3 HVD is almost or completely intrinsically disordered and has a poor ability to form secondary structures. Evolution in the nsP3 HVD region allows the alphavirus to adapt to vertebrate and insect hosts. This review focuses on the putative roles and functions of indel, repetition, and duplication events that have occurred in the alphavirus nsP3 HVD, including characterization of the differences and their implications for specificity in the context of virus–host interactions in fundamental alphavirus mechanisms, which have thus directly facilitated the evolution, adaptation, viability, and re-emergence of these viruses.

Weekly dengue forecasts in Iquitos, Peru; San Juan, Puerto Rico; and Singapore

BACKGROUND

Predictive models can serve as early warning systems and can be used to forecast future risk of various infectious diseases. Conventionally, regression and time series models are used to forecast dengue incidence, using dengue surveillance (e.g., case counts) and weather data. However, these models may be limited in terms of model assumptions and the number of predictors that can be included. Machine learning (ML) methods are designed to work with a large number of predictors and thus offer an appealing alternative. Here, we compared the performance of ML algorithms with that of regression models in predicting dengue cases and outbreaks from 4 to up to 12 weeks in advance. Many countries lack sufficient health surveillance infrastructure, as such we evaluated the contribution of dengue surveillance and weather data on the predictive power of these models.

METHODS

We developed ML, regression, and time series models to forecast weekly dengue case counts and outbreaks in Iquitos, Peru; San Juan, Puerto Rico; and Singapore from 1990-2016. Forecasts were generated using available weekly dengue surveillance, and weather data. We evaluated the agreement between model forecasts and actual dengue observations using Mean Absolute Error and Matthew's Correlation Coefficient (MCC).

RESULTS

For near term predictions of weekly case counts and when using surveillance data, ML models had 21% and 33% less error than regression and time series models respectively. However, using weather data only, ML models did not demonstrate a practical advantage. When forecasting weekly dengue outbreaks 12 weeks in advance, ML models achieved a maximum MCC of 0.61.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results identified 2 scenarios when ML models are advantageous over regression model: 1) predicting dengue weekly case counts 4 weeks ahead when dengue surveillance data are available and 2) predicting weekly dengue outbreaks 12 weeks ahead when dengue surveillance data are unavailable. Given the advantages of ML models, dengue early warning systems may be improved by the inclusion of these models.

Integrating statistical and mechanistic approaches with biotic and environmental variables improves model predictions of the impact of climate and land-use changes on future mosquito-vector abundance, diversity and distributions in Australia

Changes to Australia's climate and land-use patterns could result in expanded spatial and temporal distributions of endemic mosquito vectors including Aedes and Culex species that transmit medically important arboviruses. Climate and land-use changes greatly influence the suitability of habitats for mosquitoes and their behaviors such as mating, feeding and oviposition. Changes in these behaviors in turn determine future species-specific mosquito diversity, distribution and abundance. In this review, we discuss climate and land-use change factors that influence shifts in mosquito distribution ranges. We also discuss the predictive and epidemiological merits of incorporating these factors into a novel integrated statistical (SSDM) and mechanistic species distribution modelling (MSDM) framework. One potentially significant merit of integrated modelling is an improvement in the future surveillance and control of medically relevant endemic mosquito vectors such as Aedes vigilax and Culex annulirostris, implicated in the transmission of many arboviruses such as Ross River virus and Barmah Forest virus, and exotic mosquito vectors such as Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We conducted a focused literature search to explore the merits of integrating SSDMs and MSDMs with biotic and environmental variables to better predict the future range of endemic mosquito vectors. We show that an integrated framework utilising both SSDMs and MSDMs can improve future mosquito-vector species distribution projections in Australia. We recommend consideration of climate and environmental change projections in the process of developing land-use plans as this directly impacts mosquito-vector distribution and larvae abundance. We also urge laboratory, field-based researchers and modellers to combine these modelling approaches. Having many different variations of integrated (SDM) modelling frameworks could help to enhance the management of endemic mosquitoes in Australia. Enhanced mosquito management measures could in turn lead to lower arbovirus spread and disease notification rates.

Pathogenicity of West Nile Virus Lineage 1 to German Poultry

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne virus that originates from Africa and at present causes neurological disease in birds, horses, and humans all around the globe. As West Nile fever is an important zoonosis, the role of free-ranging domestic poultry as a source of infection for humans should be evaluated. This study examined the pathogenicity of an Italian WNV lineage 1 strain for domestic poultry (chickens, ducks, and geese) held in Germany. All three species were subcutaneously injected with WNV, and the most susceptible species was also inoculated via mosquito bite. All species developed various degrees of viremia, viral shedding (oropharyngeal and cloacal), virus accumulation, and pathomorphological lesions. Geese were most susceptible, displaying the highest viremia levels. The tested waterfowl, geese, and especially ducks proved to be ideal sentinel species for WNV due to their high antibody levels and relatively low blood viral loads. None of the three poultry species can function as a reservoir/amplifying host for WNV, as their viremia levels most likely do not suffice to infect feeding mosquitoes. Due to the recent appearance of WNV in Germany, future pathogenicity studies should also include local virus strains.

How do local differences in saltmarsh ecology influence disease vector mosquito populations?

Saltmarsh breeding mosquitoes are an important source of vectors for arboviral transmission. In southern Australia, the most prominent vector borne disease, Ross River virus (Togaviridae: Alphavirus) (RRV), is transmitted by the saltmarsh mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) Aedes camptorhynchus (Thomson). However, the factors driving the abundance of this mosquito within and among saltmarshes are poorly understood. To predict the abundance of this mosquito within saltmarshes, the environmental conditions and aquatic invertebrate ecology of three temperate saltmarshes habitats were monitored over two seasons. Up to 44% of first-instar mosquito numbers and 21% of pupal numbers were accounted for by environmental variables. Samphire vegetation cover was a common predictor of first-instar numbers across sites although, between saltmarshes, aquatic factors such as high salinity, temperatures less than 22 °C and water body volume were important predictors. The identified predictors of pupal numbers were more variable and included high tides, waterbody volume and alkalinity. The composition of invertebrate functional feeding groups differed between saltmarshes and showed that an increased diversity led to fewer mosquitoes. It was evident that apparently similar saltmarshes can vary markedly in invertebrate assemblages, water availability and conditions through tidal inundations, rainfall or waterbody permanency. The present study advances insight into predictors of vector mosquito numbers that drive the risk of RRV outbreaks.

Epidemic Alphaviruses: Ecology, Emergence and Outbreaks

Over the past century, the emergence/reemergence of arthropod-borne zoonotic agents has been a growing public health concern. In particular, agents from the genus Alphavirus pose a significant risk to both animal and human health. Human alphaviral disease presents with either arthritogenic or encephalitic manifestations and is associated with significant morbidity and/or mortality. Unfortunately, there are presently no vaccines or antiviral measures approved for human use. The present review examines the ecology, epidemiology, disease, past outbreaks, and potential to cause contemporary outbreaks for several alphavirus pathogens.

Phylogenetic and Timescale Analysis of Barmah Forest Virus as Inferred from Genome Sequence Analysis

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) is a medically important mosquito-borne alphavirus endemic to Australia. Symptomatic disease can be a major cause of morbidity, associated with fever, rash, and debilitating arthralgia. BFV disease is similar to that caused by Ross River virus (RRV), the other major Australian alphavirus. Currently, just four BFV whole-genome sequences are available with no genome-scale phylogeny in existence to robustly characterise genetic diversity. Thirty novel genome sequences were derived for this study, for a final 34-taxon dataset sampled over a 44 year period. Three distinct BFV genotypes were characterised (G1-3) that have circulated in Australia and Papua New Guinea (PNG). Evidence of spatio-temporal co-circulation of G2 and G3 within regions of Australia was noted, including in the South West region of Western Australia (WA) during the first reported disease outbreaks in the state's history. Compared with RRV, the BFV population appeared more stable with less frequent emergence of novel lineages. Preliminary in vitro assessment of RRV and BFV replication kinetics found that RRV replicates at a significantly faster rate and to a higher, more persistent titre compared with BFV, perhaps indicating mosquitoes may be infectious with RRV for longer than with BFV. This investigation resolved a greater diversity of BFV, and a greater understanding of the evolutionary dynamics and history was attained.

Rapid identification of shallow inundation for mosquito disease mitigation using drone-derived multispectral imagery

Mosquito breeding habitat identification often relies on slow, labour-intensive and expensive ground surveys. With advances in remote sensing and autonomous flight technologies, we endeavoured to accelerate this detection by assessing the effectiveness of a drone multispectral imaging system to determine areas of shallow inundation in an intertidal saltmarsh in South Australia. Through laboratory experiments, we characterised Near-Infrared (NIR) reflectance responses to water depth and vegetation cover, and established a reflectance threshold for mapping water sufficiently deep for potential mosquito breeding. We then applied this threshold to field-acquired drone imagery and used simultaneous in-situ observations to assess its mapping accuracy. A NIR reflectance threshold of 0.2 combined with a vegetation mask derived from Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) resulted in a mapping accuracy of 80.3% with a Cohen's Kappa of 0.5, with confusion between vegetation and shallow water depths (< 10 cm) appearing to be major causes of error. This high degree of mapping accuracy was achieved with affordable drone equipment, and commercially available sensors and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software, demonstrating the efficiency of such an approach to identify shallow inundation likely to be suitable for mosquito breeding.

Flooding and Arboviral Disease: Predicting Ross River Virus Disease Outbreaks Across Inland Regions of South-Eastern Australia

Flood frequency is expected to increase across the globe with climate change. Understanding the relationship between flooding and arboviral disease can reduce disease risk and associated costs. South-eastern Australia is dominated by the flood-prone Murray-Darling River system where the incidence of Australia's most common arboviral disease, Ross River virus (RRV), is high. This study aimed to determine the relationship between riverine flooding and RRV disease outbreaks in inland south-eastern Australia, specifically New South Wales (NSW). Each study month from 1991 to 2013, for each of 37 local government areas (LGAs) was assigned 'outbreak/non-outbreak' status based on long-term trimmed-average age-standardized RRV notification rates and 'flood/non-flood' status based on riverine overflow. LGAs were grouped into eight climate zones with the relationship between flood and RRV outbreak modeled using generalized estimating equations. Modeling adjusted for rainfall in the previous 1-3 mo. Spring-summer flooding increased the odds of summer RRV outbreaks in three climate zones before and after adjusting for rainfall 1, 2, and 3 mo prior to the outbreak. Flooding at any time of the year was not predictive of RRV outbreaks in the remaining five climate zones. Predicting RRV disease outbreaks with flood events can assist with more targeted mosquito spraying programs, thereby reducing disease transmission and mosquito resistance.

The Role of Temperature in Transmission of Zoonotic Arboviruses

We reviewed the literature on the role of temperature in transmission of zoonotic arboviruses. Vector competence is affected by both direct and indirect effects of temperature, and generally increases with increasing temperature, but results may vary by vector species, population, and viral strain. Temperature additionally has a significant influence on life history traits of vectors at both immature and adult life stages, and for important behaviors such as blood-feeding and mating. Similar to vector competence, temperature effects on life history traits can vary by species and population. Vector, host, and viral distributions are all affected by temperature, and are generally expected to change with increased temperatures predicted under climate change. Arboviruses are generally expected to shift poleward and to higher elevations under climate change, yet significant variability on fine geographic scales is likely. Temperature effects are generally unimodal, with increases in abundance up to an optimum, and then decreases at high temperatures. Improved vector distribution information could facilitate future distribution modeling. A wide variety of approaches have been used to model viral distributions, although most research has focused on the West Nile virus. Direct temperature effects are frequently observed, as are indirect effects, such as through droughts, where temperature interacts with rainfall. Thermal biology approaches hold much promise for syntheses across viruses, vectors, and hosts, yet future studies must consider the specificity of interactions and the dynamic nature of evolving biological systems.

Life on the margin: Rainwater tanks facilitate overwintering of the dengue vector, Aedes aegypti, in a sub-tropical climate

A key determinant of insect persistence in marginal habitats is the ability to tolerate environmental extremes such as temperature. Aedes aegypti is highly invasive and little is known about the physiological sensitivity of the species to fluctuating temperature regimes at the lower critical threshold for development. A temperature that may limit the establishment and persistence of the species in sub-optimal regions. Daily winter temperatures were measured in common Australian larval habitats, replicated in environmental chambers and used to investigate the effect of fluctuating temperatures on the development and survival of tropical and subtropical strains of Australian Ae. aegypti. Development was slow for all treatments but both strains were able to complete development to the adult stage, suggesting previous models underestimate the potential for the species to persist in eastern Australia. Results suggested that thermal buffering in large volume habitats, and water that persists for greater than 32 days, will facilitate completion of the life cycle during sub-tropical winters. Furthermore, we provide a non-linear estimate of the lower critical temperature for Ae. aegypti development that suggests the current threshold may be incorrect. Our study demonstrates that the current re-introduction of water storage containers such as rainwater tanks, into major Australian population centres will increase the risk of Ae. aegypti establishment by permitting year-round development in locations south of its current distribution.

Evaluation of a Health Communication Campaign to Improve Mosquito Awareness and Prevention Practices in Western Australia

Fight the Bite represents the Department of Health's first attempt to actively raise awareness and improve prevention practices related to mosquitoes in Western Australia (WA). The multi-faceted campaign model involved a range of stakeholders and delivery methods over a 2 year period, achieving a recall rate of 8.2% among 2,500 survey participants. Significant regional differences were noted in campaign exposure, reflecting the variation in mosquito management issues throughout the State, and subsequent engagement by local government. Of those individuals with campaign recall, 43.8% reported an increase in awareness and 27.4% reported a change in behavior, which equated to a 1.7 and 1.2% change across the total survey population, respectively. The results of this study demonstrate that Fight the Bite has significantly improved awareness and prevention practices among those individuals who were exposed to the campaign. This was particularly promising, given the modest budget, resources, and time period over which the campaign was run prior to evaluation. This outcome means that Fight the Bite can be confidently adopted as a proven and standardized but regionally adaptable campaign approach to raising awareness about mosquito avoidance and mosquito-borne diseases by the Department of Health and its stakeholders. Future campaign aims include increasing reach through heightened and sustained promotion of Fight the Bite by both the Department and local government, as well as expanded collaboration with a range of stakeholders within the community.

Statistical modeling of the effect of rainfall flushing on dengue transmission in Singapore

BACKGROUND

Rainfall patterns are one of the main drivers of dengue transmission as mosquitoes require standing water to reproduce. However, excess rainfall can be disruptive to the Aedes reproductive cycle by "flushing out" aquatic stages from breeding sites. We developed models to predict the occurrence of such "flushing" events from rainfall data and to evaluate the effect of flushing on dengue outbreak risk in Singapore between 2000 and 2016.

METHODS

We used machine learning and regression models to predict days with "flushing" in the dataset based on entomological and corresponding rainfall observations collected in Singapore. We used a distributed lag nonlinear logistic regression model to estimate the association between the number of flushing events per week and the risk of a dengue outbreak.

RESULTS

Days with flushing were identified through the developed logistic regression model based on entomological data (test set accuracy = 92%). Predictions were based upon the aggregate number of thresholds indicating unusually rainy conditions over multiple weeks. We observed a statistically significant reduction in dengue outbreak risk one to six weeks after flushing events occurred. For weeks with five or more flushing events, compared with weeks with no flushing events, the risk of a dengue outbreak in the subsequent weeks was reduced by 16% to 70%.

CONCLUSIONS

We have developed a high accuracy predictive model associating temporal rainfall patterns with flushing conditions. Using predicted flushing events, we have demonstrated a statistically significant reduction in dengue outbreak risk following flushing, with the time lag well aligned with time of mosquito development from larvae and infection transmission. Vector control programs should consider the effects of hydrological conditions in endemic areas on dengue transmission.

Temperature explains broad patterns of Ross River virus transmission

Thermal biology predicts that vector-borne disease transmission peaks at intermediate temperatures and declines at high and low temperatures. However, thermal optima and limits remain unknown for most vector-borne pathogens. We built a mechanistic model for the thermal response of Ross River virus, an important mosquito-borne pathogen in Australia, Pacific Islands, and potentially at risk of emerging worldwide. Transmission peaks at moderate temperatures (26.4°C) and declines to zero at thermal limits (17.0 and 31.5°C). The model accurately predicts that transmission is year-round endemic in the tropics but seasonal in temperate areas, resulting in the nationwide seasonal peak in human cases. Climate warming will likely increase transmission in temperate areas (where most Australians live) but decrease transmission in tropical areas where mean temperatures are already near the thermal optimum. These results illustrate the importance of nonlinear models for inferring the role of temperature in disease dynamics and predicting responses to climate change.

Mosquitoes cannot control their body temperature, so their survival and performance depend on the temperature where they live. As a result, outside temperatures can also affect the spread of diseases transmitted by mosquitoes. This has left scientists wondering how climate change may affect the spread of mosquito-borne diseases. Predicting the effects of climate change on such diseases is tricky, because many interacting factors, including temperatures and rainfall, affect mosquito populations. Also, rising temperatures do not always have a positive effect on mosquitoes – they may help mosquitoes initially, but it can get too warm even for these animals.

Climate change could affect the Ross River virus, the most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia. The virus infects 2,000 to 9,000 people each year and can cause long-term joint pain and disability. Currently, the virus spreads year-round in tropical, northern Australia and seasonally in temperate, southern Australia. Large outbreaks have occurred outside of Australia, and scientists are worried it could spread worldwide.

Now, Shocket et al. have built a model that predicts how the spread of Ross River virus changes with temperature. Shocket et al. used data from laboratory experiments that measured mosquito and virus performance across a broad range of temperatures. The experiments showed that ~26°C (80°F) is the optimal temperature for mosquitoes to spread the Ross River virus. Temperatures below 17°C (63°F) and above 32°C (89°F) hamper the spread of the virus. These temperature ranges match the current disease patterns in Australia where human cases peak in March. This is two months after the country’s average temperature reaches the optimal level and about how long it takes mosquito populations to grow, infect people, and for symptoms to develop.

Because northern Australia is already near the optimal temperature for mosquitos to spread the Ross River virus, any climate warming should decrease transmission there. But warming temperatures could increase the disease’s transmission in the southern part of the country, where most people live. The model Shocket et al. created may help the Australian government and mosquito control agencies better plan for the future.

The ecology and epidemiology of Ross River and Murray Valley encephalitis viruses in Western Australia: examples of One Health in Action

Arboviruses are maintained and transmitted through an alternating biological cycle in arthropods and vertebrates, with largely incidental disease in humans and animals. As such, they provide excellent examples of One Health, as their health impact is inextricably linked to their vertebrate hosts, their arthropod vectors and the environment. Prevention and control requires a comprehensive understanding of these interactions, and how they may be effectively and safely modified. This review concentrates on human disease due to Ross River and Murray Valley encephalitis viruses, the two major arboviral pathogens in Australia. It describes how their pattern of infection and disease is influenced by natural climatic and weather patterns, and by anthropogenic activities. The latter includes human-mediated environmental manipulations, such as water impoundment infrastructures, human movements and migration, and community and social changes, such as urban spread into mosquito larval habitats. Effective interventions need to be directed at the environmental precursors of risk. This can best be achieved using One Health approaches to improve collaboration and coordination between different disciplines and cross-sectoral jurisdictions in order to develop more holistic mitigation and control procedures, and to address poorly understood ecological issues through multidisciplinary research.

A forecasting model for dengue incidence in the District of Gampaha, Sri Lanka

Background

Dengue is one of the major health problems in Sri Lanka causing an enormous social and economic burden to the country. An accurate early warning system can enhance the efficiency of preventive measures. The aim of the study was to develop and validate a simple accurate forecasting model for the District of Gampaha, Sri Lanka. Three time-series regression models were developed using monthly rainfall, rainy days, temperature, humidity, wind speed and retrospective dengue incidences over the period January 2012 to November 2015 for the District of Gampaha, Sri Lanka. Various lag times were analyzed to identify optimum forecasting periods including interactions of multiple lags. The models were validated using epidemiological data from December 2015 to November 2017. Prepared models were compared based on Akaike’s information criterion, Bayesian information criterion and residual analysis.

Results

The selected model forecasted correctly with mean absolute errors of 0.07 and 0.22, and root mean squared errors of 0.09 and 0.28, for training and validation periods, respectively. There were no dengue epidemics observed in the district during the training period and nine outbreaks occurred during the forecasting period. The proposed model captured five outbreaks and correctly rejected 14 within the testing period of 24 months. The Pierce skill score of the model was 0.49, with a receiver operating characteristic of 86% and 92% sensitivity.

Conclusions

The developed weather based forecasting model allows warnings of impending dengue outbreaks and epidemics in advance of one month with high accuracy. Depending upon climatic factors, the previous month’s dengue cases had a significant effect on the dengue incidences of the current month. The simple, precise and understandable forecasting model developed could be used to manage limited public health resources effectively for patient management, vector surveillance and intervention programmes in the district.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-018-2828-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Ecological niche modeling and distribution of Ornithodoros hermsi associated with tick-borne relapsing fever in western North America

Tick-borne relapsing fever in western North America is a zoonosis caused by the spirochete bacterium, Borrelia hermsii, which is transmitted by the bite of infected Ornithodoros hermsi ticks. The pathogen is maintained in natural cycles involving small rodent hosts such as chipmunks and tree squirrels, as well as the tick vector. In order for these ticks to establish sustained and viable populations, a narrow set of environmental parameters must exist, primarily moderate temperatures and moderate to high amounts of precipitation. Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modeling (Maxent) was used to predict the species distribution of O. hermsi and B. hermsii through time and space based on current climatic trends and future projected climate changes. From this modeling process, we found that the projected current distributions of both the tick and spirochete align with known endemic foci for the disease. Further, global climate models predict a shift in the distribution of suitable habitat for the tick vector to higher elevations. Our predictions are useful for targeting surveillance efforts in areas of high risk in western North America, increasing the efficiency and accuracy of public health investigations and vector control efforts.

The model presented here provides valuable epidemiological information on tick-borne relapsing fever in western North America. The inference gleaned from these models represents areas where human infection with B. hermsii is likely to occur. The predicted distribution of O. hermsi and B. hermsii may allow health officials to decrease human disease burden by implementing targeted surveillance efforts, thus better utilizing resources. The models we created predict the current distribution of O. hermsi and B. hermsii, as well as the predicted distribution in 2050 under medium and high greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. Understanding how the distribution of the pathogen and its vector expand or contract in response to GHG concentrations is necessary for understanding human risk of infection with this debilitating disease both now and in the future.

The elimination of the dengue vector, Aedes aegypti, from Brisbane, Australia: The role of surveillance, larval habitat removal and policy

Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) is a highly invasive mosquito whose global distribution has fluctuated dramatically over the last 100 years. In Australia the distribution of Ae. aegypti once spanned the eastern seaboard, for 3,000 km north to south. However, during the 1900s this distribution markedly reduced and the mosquito disappeared from its southern range. Numerous hypotheses have been proffered for this retraction, however quantitative evidence of the mechanisms driving the disappearance are lacking. We examine historical records during the period when Ae. aegypti disappeared from Brisbane, the largest population centre in Queensland, Australia. In particular, we focus on the targeted management of Ae. aegypti by government authorities, that led to local elimination, something rarely observed in large cities. Numerous factors are likely to be responsible including the removal of larval habitat, especially domestic rainwater tanks, in combination with increased mosquito surveillance and regulatory enforcement. This account of historical events as they pertain to the elimination of Ae. aegypti from Brisbane, will inform assessments of the risks posed by recent human responses to climate change and the reintroduction of 300,000 rainwater tanks into the State over the past decade.

We examined the historical role that water storage practices and the enforcement of anti-mosquito regulations played in the elimination of Aedes aegypti from Brisbane, a major urban centre in Australia. We examined changes in regulations pertaining to mosquitoes, collected government records documenting surveillance, and the response by the community to the actions of local authorities. Our findings indicate that anti-mosquito regulations, underpinned by effective implementation, were successful in gaining community support and removing the risk of mosquito presence at non-compliant properties. In particular, we argue that the removal of rainwater tanks which provided a permanent larval habitat in otherwise suboptimal environments, played a major role in the elimination of the species from Brisbane. Public Health regulations were supported by a large surveillance effort by local government health officers that were empowered to enforce legislation where necessary. Our findings are of importance to health authorities managing the ongoing expansion of Aedes populations, particularly in regions of sub-optimal climate and where water storage has become a major concern.

Influence of meteorological variables on dengue incidence in the municipality of Arapiraca, Alagoas, Brazil

INTRODUCTION:

Meteorological influences along with the lack of basic sanitation has contributed to disease outbreaks, resulting in large socio-economic losses, especially in terms of dengue. This study aimed to evaluate the meteorological influences on the monthly incidence of dengue in Arapiraca-AL, Brazil during 2008-2015.

METHODS:

We used generalized linear models constructed via logistic regression to assess the association between the monthly incidence of dengue (MID) of and 8 meteorological variables [rainfall (R), air temperature (AT), dew point temperature (DPT), relative humidity (RH), pressure surface, wind speed (WS), wind direction (WD), and gust], based on data obtained from DATASUS and meteorological station databases, respectively. The dengue-1 model included R, AT, DPT, and RH and the dengue-2 model included AT, DPT, RH, WS, and WD. A MID >100 (classified as moderate incidence) indicated an abnormal month.

RESULTS:

Based on the dengue-1 model, variables with the highest odds ratio included R-lag1, DPT-lag1, and AT-lag1 with a 10.1, 18.3, and 26.7 times greater probability of a moderate MID, respectively. Based on the dengue-2 model, variables with the highest odds ratio were AT-lag1 and RH-lag0 indicating an 8.9 and 18.1 times greater probability of a moderate MID, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS:

AT, DPT, R, RH and WS influenced the occurrence of a moderate MID.

Inter-epidemic Rift Valley fever virus seroconversions in an irrigation scheme in Bura, south-east Kenya

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an acute mosquito-borne viral zoonosis whose outbreaks are often associated with prolonged rainfall and flooding, during which large numbers of vectors emerge. Recent studies into the inter-epidemic maintenance of RVF virus (RVFV) suggest that both vertical transmission in vectors and direct transmission between hosts act in combination with predisposing factors for persistence of the virus. A comparative longitudinal survey was carried out in Tana River County, Kenya, in irrigated, riverine and pastoral ecosystems from September 2014-June 2015. The objectives were to investigate the possibility of low-level RVFV transmission in these ecosystems during an inter-epidemic period (IEP), examine variations in RVFV seroprevalence in sheep and goats and determine the risk factors for transmission. Three hundred and sixteen small ruminants were selected and tested for immunoglobulin G antibodies against RVFV nucleoprotein using a competitive ELISA during six visits. Data on potential risk factors were also captured. Inter-epidemic RVFV transmission was evidenced by 15 seroconversions within the irrigated and riverine villages. The number of seroconversions was not significantly different (OR = 0.66, CI = 0.19-2.17, p = .59) between irrigated and riverine areas. No seroconversions were detected in the pastoral ecosystem. This study highlights the increased risk of inter-epidemic RVFV transmission posed by irrigation, through provision of necessary environmental conditions that enable vectors access to more breeding grounds, resting places and shade, which favour their breeding and survival.

Neglected Australian arboviruses: quam gravis?

At least 75 arboviruses have been identified from Australia. Most have a zoonotic transmission cycle, maintained in the environment by cycling between arthropod vectors and susceptible mammalian or avian hosts. The primary arboviruses that cause human disease in Australia are Ross River, Barmah Forest, Murray Valley encephalitis, Kunjin and dengue. Several other arboviruses are associated with human disease but little is known about their clinical course and diagnostic testing is not routinely available. Given the significant prevalence of undifferentiated febrile illness in Australia, investigation of the potential threat to public health presented by these viruses is required.

A comparative analysis of three vector-borne diseases across Australia using seasonal and meteorological models

Ross River virus (RRV), Barmah Forest virus (BFV), and dengue are three common mosquito-borne diseases in Australia that display notable seasonal patterns. Although all three diseases have been modeled on localized scales, no previous study has used harmonic models to compare seasonality of mosquito-borne diseases on a continent-wide scale. We fit Poisson harmonic regression models to surveillance data on RRV, BFV, and dengue (from 1993, 1995 and 1991, respectively, through 2015) incorporating seasonal, trend, and climate (temperature and rainfall) parameters. The models captured an average of 50–65% variability of the data. Disease incidence for all three diseases generally peaked in January or February, but peak timing was most variable for dengue. The most significant predictor parameters were trend and inter-annual periodicity for BFV, intra-annual periodicity for RRV, and trend for dengue. We found that a Temperature Suitability Index (TSI), designed to reclassify climate data relative to optimal conditions for vector establishment, could be applied to this context. Finally, we extrapolated our models to estimate the impact of a false-positive BFV epidemic in 2013. Creating these models and comparing variations in periodicities may provide insight into historical outbreaks as well as future patterns of mosquito-borne diseases.

Mosquito communities and disease risk influenced by land use change and seasonality in the Australian tropics

Background

Anthropogenic land use changes have contributed considerably to the rise of emerging and re-emerging mosquito-borne diseases. These diseases appear to be increasing as a result of the novel juxtapositions of habitats and species that can result in new interchanges of vectors, diseases and hosts. We studied whether the mosquito community structure varied between habitats and seasons and whether known disease vectors displayed habitat preferences in tropical Australia.

Methods

Using CDC model 512 traps, adult mosquitoes were sampled across an anthropogenic disturbance gradient of grassland, rainforest edge and rainforest interior habitats, in both the wet and dry seasons. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMS) ordinations were applied to examine major gradients in the composition of mosquito and vector communities.

Results

We captured ~13,000 mosquitoes from 288 trap nights across four study sites. A community analysis identified 29 species from 7 genera. Even though mosquito abundance and richness were similar between the three habitats, the community composition varied significantly in response to habitat type. The mosquito community in rainforest interiors was distinctly different to the community in grasslands, whereas forest edges acted as an ecotone with shared communities from both forest interiors and grasslands. We found two community patterns that will influence disease risk at out study sites, first, that disease vectoring mosquito species occurred all year round. Secondly, that anthropogenic grasslands adjacent to rainforests may increase the probability of novel disease transmission through changes to the vector community on rainforest edges, as most disease transmitting species predominantly occurred in grasslands.

Conclusion

Our results indicate that the strong influence of anthropogenic land use change on mosquito communities could have potential implications for pathogen transmission to humans and wildlife.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-016-1675-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Desiccation survival time for eggs of a widespread and invasive Australian mosquito species, Aedes (Finlaya) notoscriptus (Skuse)

The Australian native mosquito Aedes (Finlaya) notoscriptus (Skuse) is closely associated with natural and artificial water holding receptacles. Eggs are laid in habitats where they are exposed to drying conditions as water levels fluctuate. Withstanding desiccation enables survival in challenging environments and increases the potential for establishment in non-native habitats. Until now, the desiccation resistance of Ae. notoscriptus eggs has been unknown despite the historical invasive success of this important dog heartworm and arbovirus vector. Viability and mean survival times of eggs from two Ae. notoscriptus populations (metropolitan areas of Sydney, NSW and Adelaide, SA) were evaluated, with eggs stored under three dryness conditions for up to 367 days. Our results revealed that Ae. notoscriptus eggs can withstand desiccation for extended periods, under a variety of conditions, with approximately 9-13% egg viability recorded after one year. This prolonged egg survival reflects the widespread distribution of this mosquito in Australia and its history of incursions and subsequent establishment in non-native habitats. Differences in mean egg volume were recorded in addition to significantly different egg length to width ratios for the two populations, which may reflect adaptation to biotope of origin and an associated likelihood of drought and drying conditions. The results of this study suggest that the desiccation resistant eggs of Ae. notoscriptus make this species highly adaptable, increasing the risk of movement to non-endemic regions of the world.

A Bayesian Belief Network for Murray Valley encephalitis virus risk assessment in Western Australia

BACKGROUND

Murray Valley encephalitis virus (MVEV) is a clinically important virus in Australia responsible for a number of epidemics over the past century. Since there is no vaccine for MVEV, other preventive health measures to curtail its spread must be considered, including the development of predictive risk models and maps to help direct public health interventions. This article aims to support these approaches by presenting a model for assessing MVEV risk in Western Australia (WA).

METHODS

A Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) for assessing MVEV risk was developed and used to quantify and map disease risks in WA. The model combined various abiotic, biotic, and anthropogenic factors that might affect the risk of MVEV into a predictive framework, based on the ecology of the major mosquito vector and waterbird hosts of MVEV. It was further refined and tested using retrospective climate data from 4 years (2000, 2003, 2009, and 2011).

RESULTS

Implementing the model across WA demonstrated that it could predict locations of human MVEV infection and sentinel animal seroconversion in the 4 years tested with some degree of accuracy. In general, risks are highest in the State's north and lower in the south. The model predicted that short-term climate change, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's A1B emissions scenario, would decrease MVEV risks in summer and autumn, largely due to higher temperatures decreasing vector survival.

CONCLUSIONS

To our knowledge, this is the first model to use a BBN to quantify MVEV risks in WA. The models and maps developed here may assist public health agencies in preparing for and managing Murray Valley encephalitis in the future. In its current form, the model is knowledge-driven and based on the analysis of potential risk factors that affect the dynamics of MVEV using retrospective data. Further work and additional testing should be carried out to test its validity in future years.

Determining meteorological drivers of salt marsh mosquito peaks in tropical northern Australia

In northern Australia the northern salt marsh mosquito Aedes vigilax is a vector of Ross River virus and is an appreciable pest. A coastal wetland adjacent to Darwin's residential suburbs offers a favorable habitat for Ae. vigilax, and despite vigilant mosquito control efforts, peaks of Ae. vigilax occur in excess of 500/trap/night some months. To improve mosquito control for disease and nuisance biting to nearby residential areas, we sought to investigate meteorological drivers associated with these Ae. vigilax peaks. We fitted a cross-sectional logistic regression model to weekly counts of female Ae. vigilax mosquitoes collected between July, 1998 and June, 2009 against variables, tide, rainfall, month, year, and larval control. Aedes vigilax peaks were associated with rainfall during the months September to November compared with January, when adjusted for larval control and tide. To maximize mosquito control efficiency, larval control should continue to be implemented after high tides and with increased emphasis on extensive larval hatches triggered by rainfall between September and November each year. This study reiterates the importance of monitoring and evaluating service delivery programs. Using statistical modelling, service providers can obtain solutions to operational problems using routinely collected data. These methods may be applicable in mosquito surveillance or control programs in other areas.

Modeling Occurrence of Urban Mosquitos Based on Land Use Types and Meteorological Factors in Korea

Mosquitoes are a public health concern because they are vectors of pathogen, which cause human-related diseases. It is well known that the occurrence of mosquitoes is highly influenced by meteorological conditions (e.g., temperature and precipitation) and land use, but there are insufficient studies quantifying their impacts. Therefore, three analytical methods were applied to determine the relationships between urban mosquito occurrence, land use type, and meteorological factors: cluster analysis based on land use types; principal component analysis (PCA) based on mosquito occurrence; and three prediction models, support vector machine (SVM), classification and regression tree (CART), and random forest (RF). We used mosquito data collected at 12 sites from 2011 to 2012. Mosquito abundance was highest from August to September in both years. The monitoring sites were differentiated into three clusters based on differences in land use type such as culture and sport areas, inland water, artificial grasslands, and traffic areas. These clusters were well reflected in PCA ordinations, indicating that mosquito occurrence was highly influenced by land use types. Lastly, the RF represented the highest predictive power for mosquito occurrence and temperature-related factors were the most influential. Our study will contribute to effective control and management of mosquito occurrences.

Ross River Virus (RRV) infection in horses and humans: a review

A fascinating and important arbovirus is Ross River Virus (RRV) which is endemic and epizootic in nature in certain parts of the world. RRV is a member of the genus Alphavirus within the Semliki Forest complex of the family Togaviridae, which also includes the Getah virus. The virus is responsible for causing disease both in humans as well as horses. Mosquito species (Aedes camptorhynchus and Aedes vigilax; Culex annulirostris) are the most important vector for this virus. In places of low temperature as well as low rainfall or where there is lack of habitat of mosquito there is also limitation in the transmission of the virus. Such probability is higher especially in temperate regions bordering endemic regions having sub-tropical climate. There is involvement of articular as well as non-articular cells in the replication of RRV. Levels of pro-inflammatory factors viz., tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α); interferon-gamma (IFN-γ); and macrophage chemo-attractant protein-1 (MAC-1) during disease pathogenesis have been found to be reduced. Reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) is the most advanced molecular diagnostic tool along with epitope-blocking enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for detecting RRV infection. Treatment for RRV infection is only supportive. Vaccination is not a fruitful approach. Precise data collection will help the researchers to understand the RRV disease dynamics and thereby designing effective prevention and control strategy. Advances in diagnosis, vaccine development and emerging/novel therapeutic regimens need to be explored to their full potential to tackle RRV infection and the disease it causes.

Dengue virus detection in Aedes aegypti larvae from southeastern Brazil

The transmission of dengue, the most important arthropod-borne viral disease in Brazil, has been intensified over the past decades, along with the accompanying expansion and adaptation of its Aedes vectors. In the present study, we mapped dengue vectors in Ouro Preto and Ouro Branco, Minas Gerais, by installing ovitraps in 32 public schools. The traps were examined monthly between September, 2011 through July, 2012 and November, 2012 to April, 2013. The larvae were reared until the fourth stadium and identified according to species. The presence of dengue virus was detected by real time PCR and agarose gel electrophoresis. A total of 1,945 eggs was collected during the 17 months of the study. The Ovitrap Positivity Index (OPI) ranged from 0 to 28.13% and the Eggs Density Index (EDI) ranged from 0 to 59.9. The predominant species was Aedes aegypti, with 84.9% of the hatched larvae. Although the collection was low when compared to other ovitraps studies, vertical transmission could be detected. Of the 54 pools, dengue virus was detected in four Ae. aegypti pools.

Arthropod-borne arthritides

Infections with several types of viral and bacterial pathogens are able to cause arthritic disease. Arthropod vectors such as ticks and mosquitoes transmit a number of these arthritis-causing pathogens, and as these vectors increase their global distribution, so too do the diseases they spread. The typical clinical manifestations of infectious arthritis are often similar in presentation to rheumatoid arthritis. Hence, care needs to be taken in the diagnoses and management of these conditions. Additionally, clinical reports suggest that prolonged arthropathies may result from infection, highlighting the need for careful clinical management and further research into underlying disease mechanisms.

Climate change impacts on West Nile virus transmission in a global context

West Nile virus (WNV), the most widely distributed virus of the encephalitic flaviviruses, is a vector-borne pathogen of global importance. The transmission cycle exists in rural and urban areas where the virus infects birds, humans, horses and other mammals. Multiple factors impact the transmission and distribution of WNV, related to the dynamics and interactions between pathogen, vector, vertebrate hosts and environment. Hence, among other drivers, weather conditions have direct and indirect influences on vector competence (the ability to acquire, maintain and transmit the virus), on the vector population dynamic and on the virus replication rate within the mosquito, which are mostly weather dependent. The importance of climatic factors (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and winds) as drivers in WNV epidemiology is increasing under conditions of climate change. Indeed, recent changes in climatic conditions, particularly increased ambient temperature and fluctuations in rainfall amounts, contributed to the maintenance (endemization process) of WNV in various locations in southern Europe, western Asia, the eastern Mediterranean, the Canadian Prairies, parts of the USA and Australia. As predictions show that the current trends are expected to continue, for better preparedness, any assessment of future transmission of WNV should take into consideration the impacts of climate change.

Exploring the potential for Ross River virus emergence in New Zealand

Ross River virus (RRV) is an exotic vector-borne disease considered highly likely to emerge as a future human health issue in New Zealand, with its range expansion from Australia being driven by exotic mosquito introduction and improving conditions for mosquito breeding. We investigated our ability to assess the potential for such emergence using deterministic modeling and making preliminary predictions based on currently available evidence. Although data on actual mosquito densities (as opposed to indices) were identified as a need for predictions to be made with greater confidence, this approach generated a contrasting prediction to current opinion. Only limited potential for RRV emergence in New Zealand was predicted, with outbreaks in the human population more likely of concern in urban areas (mainly should major exotic vectors of the virus establish). The mechanistic nature of the model also allowed the understanding that if such outbreaks do occur, they will most likely be driven by virus amplification in dense human populations (as opposed to the spillover infection from wildlife common in Australia). With implications for biosecurity and health care resource allocation, modeling approaches such as that employed here have much to offer both for disease emergence prediction and surveillance strategy design.

The changing epidemiology of Kunjin virus in Australia

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne virus responsible for outbreaks of viral encephalitis in humans and horses, with particularly virulent strains causing recent outbreaks of disease in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and North America. A strain of WNV, Kunjin (WNV_KUN), is endemic in northern Australia and infection with this virus is generally asymptomatic. However in early 2011, an unprecedented outbreak of encephalitis in horses occurred in south-eastern Australia, resulting in mortality in approximately 10%–15% of infected horses. A WNV-like virus (WNV_NSW2011) was isolated and found to be most closely related to the indigenous WNV_KUN, rather than other exotic WNV strains. Furthermore, at least two amino acid changes associated with increased virulence of the North American New York 99 strain (WNV_NY99) compared to the prototype WNV_KUN were present in the WNV_NSW2011 sequence. This review summarizes our current understanding of WNV_KUN and how the epidemiology and ecology of this virus has changed. Analysis of virulence determinants of contemporary WNV_KUN isolates will provide clues on where virulent strains have emerged in Australia. A better understanding of the changing ecology and epidemiology associated with the emergence of virulent strains is essential to prepare for future outbreaks of WNV disease in Australia.

Mosquito consumption by insectivorous bats: does size matter?

Insectivorous bats have often been touted as biological control for mosquito populations. However, mosquitoes generally represent only a small proportion of bat diet. Given the small size of mosquitoes, restrictions imposed on prey detectability by low frequency echolocation, and variable field metabolic rates (FMR), mosquitoes may not be available to or profitable for all bats. This study investigated whether consumption of mosquitoes was influenced by bat size, which is negatively correlated with echolocation frequency but positively correlated with bat FMR. To assess this, we investigated diets of five eastern Australian bat species (Vespadelus vulturnus Thomas, V. pumilus Gray, Miniopterus australis Tomes, Nyctophilus gouldi Tomes and Chalinolobus gouldii Gray) ranging in size from 4-14 g in coastal forest, using molecular analysis of fecal DNA. Abundances of potential mosquito and non-mosquito prey were concurrently measured to provide data on relative prey abundance. Aedes vigilax was locally the most abundant mosquito species, while Lepidoptera the most abundant insect order. A diverse range of prey was detected in bat feces, although members of Lepidoptera dominated, reflecting relative abundance at trap sites. Consumption of mosquitoes was restricted to V. vulturnus and V. pumilus, two smaller sized bats (4 and 4.5 g). Although mosquitoes were not commonly detected in feces of V. pumilus, they were present in feces of 55 % of V. vulturnus individuals. To meet nightly FMR requirements, Vespadelus spp. would need to consume ~600-660 mosquitoes on a mosquito-only diet, or ~160-180 similar sized moths on a moth-only diet. Lower relative profitability of mosquitoes may provide an explanation for the low level of mosquito consumption among these bats and the absence of mosquitoes in feces of larger bats. Smaller sized bats, especially V. vulturnus, are likely to be those most sensitive to reductions in mosquito abundance and should be monitored during mosquito control activities.

Foraging ranges of insectivorous bats shift relative to changes in mosquito abundance

The need to develop effective management strategies for insectivorous bat populations requires an understanding of factors influencing habitat use. Availability of pest prey, such as mosquitoes is likely to be one such factor. To assess whether this is the case, we radio-tracked Vespadelus vulturnus Thomas (little forest bat), a predator of Aedes vigilax Skuse (saltmarsh mosquito), in saltmarsh and adjacent coastal swamp forest during periods of high and low Ae. vigilax abundance. When mosquito abundance in structurally-open saltmarsh was similar to the more cluttered coastal swamp forest, use of saltmarsh by V. vulturnus was disproportionately greater than its availability, with saltmarsh selected preferentially for foraging. However, at times of low Ae. vigilax abundance in saltmarsh, use of saltmarsh by V. vulturnus was reduced and all habitats were used in proportion to availability in the study area. This is the first radio-tracking study to demonstrate a shift in foraging range by an insectivorous bat species correlated with fluctuations in the distribution and abundance of a particular prey resource. The shift in foraging range by V. vulturnus, corresponding with a spatio-temporal variation in abundance of Ae. vigilax highlights the importance of mosquitoes as a dietary item. Broadscale pest control of Ae. vigilax may have ecological implications for the diet and habitat use of V. vulturnus. An adaptive management approach is proposed, whereby careful monitoring of insectivorous bat populations is recommended before and after any application of broadscale mosquito control measures. We also suggest a precautionary approach is taken such that broadscale control of mosquitoes avoids the lactation period of bats, a time when their energetic demands are greatest and when there is reduced risk of contracting mosquito-borne diseases transmitted by Ae. vigilax.

The human and animal health impacts of introduction and spread of an exotic strain of West Nile virus in Australia

Vector-borne diseases can have substantial impacts on human and animal health, including major epidemics. West Nile virus (WNV) is of particular international importance due to its recent emergence and impact in the Western Hemisphere. Despite the presence of a sub-type of WNV (Kunjin virus, KUN) in Australia, a potential ecological niche could be occupied by an exotic strain of WNV of the North American type. This study assesses the probability an exotic strain of WNV enters Australia via an infected mosquito in an aircraft from the United States (U.S.) landing at Sydney airport, the probability it spreads to susceptible species and the impact of the resulting outbreak on human and animal health. A release, exposure and consequence assessment were conducted using expert opinion and scientific literature to parameterise the inputs for the models (OIE, 2009). Following establishment of WNV in Australia, the spatio-temporal spread of WNV was predicted over a six year period based on the Australian human and equine populations at-risk, the known distribution of other mosquito-borne flaviviruses in Australia, climatic factors, and the spread of WNV in the U.S. following it's incursion in New York City in 1999. The impact of this spread was measured as a multiplier of human and equine demographics using the U.S. incidence and case fatality rates as a reference. For an 8 month period from September to April (considering seasonal impact on mosquito activity during the coldest months in Australia and the U.S.), and assuming WNV is endemic in the U.S., the median probability an infected mosquito is introduced is 0.17, and the median number of infected mosquitoes introduced is predicted to be zero, with a 95th percentile range of one. The overall probability of a WNV outbreak (WNV released into Australia, susceptible hosts exposed and the virus spread) occurring in the human and the horse population during this time period is estimated to be 7.0×10(-6) and 3.9×10(-6), respectively. These values are largely influenced by the presence of mosquitoes in aircrafts and whether the introduced infected mosquito contacts wild birds. Results of this study suggest there is a low risk of introduction and spread of an exotic strain of WNV from the U.S via aircraft, and provides an insight into the magnitude and impact of the spread among human and horse populations. The generic framework presented could be applied to assess the potential introduction of other mosquito-borne diseases (which involve a wild bird transmission cycle) via international aircraft movements.

Anthropogenic ecological change and impacts on mosquito breeding and control strategies in salt-marshes, Northern Territory, Australia

Darwin, in the tropical north of Australia, is subject to high numbers of mosquitoes and several mosquito-borne diseases. Many of Darwin's residential areas were built in close proximity to tidally influenced swamps, where long-term storm-water run-off from nearby residences into these swamps has led to anthropogenic induced ecological change. When natural wet-dry cycles were disrupted, bare mud-flats and mangroves were transformed into perennial fresh to brackish-water reed swamps. Reed swamps provided year-round breeding habitat for many mosquito species, such that mosquito abundance was less predictable and seasonally dependent, but constant and often occurring in plague proportions. Drainage channels were constructed throughout the wetlands to reduce pooled water during dry-season months. This study assesses the impact of drainage interventions on vegetation and mosquito ecology in three salt-marshes in the Darwin area. Findings revealed a universal decline in dry-season mosquito abundance in each wetland system. However, some mosquito species increased in abundance during wet-season months. Due to the high expense and potentially detrimental environmental impacts of ecosystem and non-target species disturbance, large-scale modifications such as these are sparingly undertaken. However, our results indicate that some large scale environmental modification can assist the process of wetland restoration, as appears to be the case for these salt marsh systems. Drainage in all three systems has been restored to closer to their original salt-marsh ecosystems, while reducing mosquito abundances, thereby potentially lowering the risk of vector-borne disease transmission and mosquito pest biting problems.

Spatio-temporal patterns of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Background

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is a common and wide-spread mosquito-borne disease in Australia. This study investigated the spatio-temporal patterns of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia using geographical information system (GIS) tools and geostatistical analysis.

Methods/Principal Findings

We calculated the incidence rates and standardised incidence rates of BFV disease. Moran's I statistic was used to assess the spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidences. Spatial dynamics of BFV disease was examined using semi-variogram analysis. Interpolation techniques were applied to visualise and display the spatial distribution of BFV disease in statistical local areas (SLAs) throughout Queensland. Mapping of BFV disease by SLAs reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation over time. Statistically significant differences in BFV incidence rates were identified among age groups (χ² = 7587, df = 7327,p<0.01). There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidence for all four periods, with the Moran's I statistic ranging from 0.1506 to 0.2901 (p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state.

Conclusions/Significance

This is the first study to examine spatial and temporal variation in the incidence rates of BFV disease across Queensland using GIS and geostatistics. The BFV transmission varied with age and gender, which may be due to exposure rates or behavioural risk factors. There are differences in the spatio-temporal patterns of BFV disease which may be related to local socio-ecological and environmental factors. These research findings may have implications in the BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Environmental drivers of Ross River virus in southeastern Tasmania, Australia: towards strengthening public health interventions

In Australia, Ross River virus (RRV) is predominantly identified and managed through passive health surveillance. Here, the proactive use of environmental datasets to improve community-scale public health interventions in southeastern Tasmania is explored. Known environmental drivers (temperature, rainfall, tide) of the RRV vector Aedes camptorhynchus are analysed against cumulative case records for five adjacent local government areas (LGAs) from 1993 to 2009. Allowing for a 0- to 3-month lag period, temperature was the most significant driver of RRV cases at 1-month lag, contributing to a 23·2% increase in cases above the long-term case average. The potential for RRV to become an emerging public health issue in Tasmania due to projected climate changes is discussed. Moreover, practical outputs from this research are proposed including the development of an early warning system for local councils to implement preventative measures, such as public outreach and mosquito spray programmes.

Arbovirus models to provide practical management tools for mosquito control and disease prevention in the Northern Territory, Australia

Ross River virus (RRV) causes the most common human arbovirus disease in Australia. Although the disease is nonfatal, the associated arthritis and postinfection fatigue can be debilitating for many months, impacting on workforce participation. We sought to create an early-warning system to notify of approaching RRV disease outbreak conditions for major townships in the Northern Territory. By applying a logistic regression model to meteorologic factors, including rainfall, a postestimation analysis of sensitivity and specificity can create rainfall cut-points. These rainfall cut-points indicate the rainfall level above which previous epidemic conditions have occurred. Furthermore, rainfall cut-points indirectly adjust for vertebrate host data from the agile wallaby (Macropus agilis) as the life cycle of the agile wallaby is intricately meshed with the wet season. Once generated, cut-points can thus be used prospectively to allow timely implementation of larval survey and control measures and public health warnings to preemptively reduce RRV disease incidence. Cut-points are location specific and have the capacity to replace previously used models, which require data management and input, and rarely provide timely notification for vector control requirements and public health warnings. These methods can be adapted for use elsewhere.

Challenges in predicting climate and environmental effects on vector-borne disease episystems in a changing world

Vector-borne pathogens cause enormous suffering to humans and animals. Many are expanding their range into new areas. Dengue, West Nile and Chikungunya have recently caused substantial human epidemics. Arthropod-borne animal diseases like Bluetongue, Rift Valley fever and African horse sickness pose substantial threats to livestock economies around the world. Climate change can impact the vector-borne disease epidemiology. Changes in climate will influence arthropod vectors, their life cycles and life histories, resulting in changes in both vector and pathogen distribution and changes in the ability of arthropods to transmit pathogens. Climate can affect the way pathogens interact with both the arthropod vector and the human or animal host. Predicting and mitigating the effects of future changes in the environment like climate change on the complex arthropod-pathogen-host epidemiological cycle requires understanding of a variety of complex mechanisms from the molecular to the population level. Although there has been substantial progress on many fronts the challenges to effectively understand and mitigate the impact of potential changes in the environment on vector-borne pathogens are formidable and at an early stage of development. The challenges will be explored using several arthropod-borne pathogen systems as illustration, and potential avenues to meet the challenges will be presented.

A geospatial evaluation of Aedes vigilax larval control efforts across a coastal wetland, Northern Territory, Australia

Adjacent to the northern suburbs of Darwin is a coastal wetland that contains important larval habitats for Aedes vigilax (Skuse), the northern salt marsh mosquito. This species is a vector for Ross River virus and Barmah Forest virus, as well as an appreciable human pest. In order to improve aerial larval control efforts, we sought to identify the most important vegetation categories and climatic/seasonal aspects associated with control operations in these wetlands. By using a generalized linear model to compare aerial control for each vegetation category, we found that Schoenoplectus/mangrove areas require the greatest amount of control for tide-only events (30.1%), and also extensive control for tide and rain events coinciding (18.2%). Our results further indicate that tide-affected reticulate vegetation indicated by the marsh grasses Sporobolus virginicus and Xerochloa imberbis require extensive control for Ae. vigilax larvae after rain-only events (44.7%), and tide and rain events coinciding (38.0%). The analyses of vector control efforts by month indicated that September to January, with a peak in November and December, required the most control. A companion paper identifies the vegetation categories most associated with Aedes vigilax larvae population densities in the coastal wetland. To maximize the efficiency of aerial salt marsh mosquito control operations in northern Australia, aerial control efforts should concentrate on the vegetation categories with high larval densities between September and January.

A comparison of Aedes vigilax larval population densities and associated vegetation categories in a coastal wetland, Northern Territory, Australia

Darwin's northern suburbs border an extensive coastal reed and upper mangrove wetland recognized as an important larval habitat for Aedes vigilax (Skuse), the northern salt marsh mosquito, an established vector for Ross River and Barmah Forest viruses and an appreciable pest species. We sought to identify the most important vegetation categories associated with Ae. vigilax breeding to maximize the efficiency of mosquito control efforts. Using a generalized linear model with negative binominal distribution and log link, this study compares larval densities, determined by focused dipping, between 13 discernable vegetation categories. The incidence rate ratios (RR) generated can be used to compare the magnitude of larval densities for each vegetation category, compared with the reference category. Aedes vigilax larval densities were almost ten times greater in artificial drainage areas (RR=9.82), followed by tide-affected reticulate (Sporobolus/Xerochloa) areas (RR=8.15), then Schoenoplectus/mangroves (RR=2.29), compared with the reference vegetation category "lower mangroves." Furthermore, larval densities were highest in May, due to tidal inundation, for drainage areas and tide-affected reticulates (RR=12.2, 11.7, respectively) compared with March, the reference month. Thus, to maximize the efficiency of aerial salt marsh mosquito control operations in this wetland, larval control is best accomplished by concentrating on drains, Schoenoplectus/mangroves, and tide-affected reticulate areas, commencing early after the wet season. These results should apply to other areas of salt marsh mosquito breeding across northern Australia.