Secular trends in mortality by stroke subtype in the 20th century: a retrospective analysis

Burden of intracerebral haemorrhage in Europe: forecasting incidence and mortality between 2019 and 2050

Background

Anticipating the burden of intracerebral haemorrhage is crucial for proactive management and building resilience against future health challenges. Prior forecasts are based on population demography and to a lesser extent epidemiological trends. This study aims to utilise selected modifiable risk factors and socio-demographic indicators to forecast the incidence and mortality of intracerebral haemorrhage in Europe between 2019 and 2050.

Methods

Three intracerebral haemorrhage risk factors identified in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors study (GBD 2019)-high systolic blood pressure, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body mass index-were utilised to predict the risk-attributable fractions between 2019 and 2050. Disease burden not attributable to these risk factors was then forecasted using time series models (autoregressive integrated moving average [ARIMA]), incorporating the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) as an external predictor. The optimal parameters of ARIMA models were selected for each age-sex-country group based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Different health scenarios were constructed by extending the past 85th and 15th percentiles of annualised rates of change in risk factors and SDI across all location-years, stratified by age and sex groups. A decomposition analysis was performed to assess the relative contributions of population size, age composition, and intracerebral haemorrhage risk on the projected changes.

Findings

Compared with observed figures in 2019, our analysis predicts an increase in the burden of intracerebral haemorrhage in Europe in 2050, with a marginal rise of 0.6% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], -7.4% to 9.6%) in incident cases and an 8.9% (-2.8% to 23.6%) increase in mortality, reaching 141.2 (120.6-166.5) thousand and 144.2 (122.9-172.2) thousand respectively. These projections may fluctuate depending on trajectories of the risk factors and SDI; worsened trends could result in increases of 16.7% (8.7%-25.3%) in incidence and 31.2% (17.7%-48%) in mortality, while better trajectories may lead to a 10% (16.4%-2.3%) decrease in intracerebral haemorrhage cases with stabilised mortality. Individuals aged ≥80 years are expected to contribute significantly to the burden, comprising 62.7% of the cases in 2050, up from 40% in 2019, and 72.5% of deaths, up from 50.5%. Country-wide variations were noted in the projected changes, with decreases in the standardised rates across all nations but varying crude rates. The largest relative reductions in counts for both incidence and mortality are expected in Latvia, Bulgaria, and Hungary-ranging from -38.2% to -32.4% and -37.3% to -30.2% respectively. In contrast, the greatest increases for both measures were forecasted in Ireland (45.7% and 74.4%), Luxembourg (45% and 70.7%), and Cyprus (44.5% and 74.2%). The modelled increase in the burden of intracerebral haemorrhage could largely be attributed to population ageing.

Interpretation

This study provides a comprehensive forecast of intracerebral haemorrhage in Europe until 2050, presenting different trajectories. The potential increase in the number of people experiencing and dying from intracerebral haemorrhage could have profound implications for both caregiving responsibilities and associated costs. However, forecasts were divergent between different scenarios and among EU countries, signalling the pivotal role of public health initiatives in steering the trajectories.

Funding

The European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No. 754517. The National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) under its Programme Grants for Applied Research (NIHR202339).

Emerging Strategies and Effective Prevention Measures for Investigating the Association Between Stroke and Sudden Cardiac Fatality

Stroke-related cardiac death is a significant concern for patients with stroke and their healthcare providers. It is a complex and multifaceted condition that requires careful management of both modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors. This review provides an overview of the pathophysiology, risk factors, and prevention strategies for stroke-related cardiac death. The review highlights the importance of identifying and managing modifiable risk factors such as hypertension, diabetes, and lifestyle factors, as well as non-modifiable risk factors such as age and genetics. Additionally, the review explores emerging strategies for prevention, including the use of wearable devices and genetic testing to identify patients at risk, stem cell therapy and gene therapy for cardiac dysfunction, and precision medicine for personalized treatment plans. Despite some limitations to this review, it provides valuable insights into the current understanding of stroke-related cardiac death and identifies important areas for future research. Ultimately, the implementation of evidence-based prevention strategies and personalized treatment plans has the potential to improve outcomes for patients with stroke and reduce the burden of stroke-related cardiac death in the population.

Projections of future coronary heart disease and stroke mortality in Japan until 2040: a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis

Background

We aimed to estimate the future burden of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortalities by sex and all 47 prefectures of Japan until 2040 while accounting for effects of age, period, and cohort and integrating them to be at the national level to account for regional differences among prefectures.

Methods

We estimated future CHD and stroke mortality projections, developing Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models in population and the number of CHD and stroke by age, sex, and all 47 prefectures observed from 1995 to 2019; then applying these to official future population estimates until 2040. The present participants were all men and women aged over 30 years and were residents of Japan.

Findings

In the BAPC models, the predicted number of national-level cardiovascular deaths from 2020 to 2040 would decrease (39,600 [95% credible interval: 32,200-47,900] to 36,200 [21,500-58,900] CHD deaths in men, and 27,400 [22,000-34,000] to 23,600 [12,700-43,800] in women; and 50,400 [41,900-60,200] to 40,800 [25,200-67,800] stroke deaths in men, and 52,200 [43,100-62,800] to 47,400 [26,800-87,200] in women).

Interpretation

After adjusting these factors, future CHD and stroke deaths will decline until 2040 at the national level and in most prefectures.

Funding

This research was supported by the Intramural Research Fund of Cardiovascular Diseases of the National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center (21-1-6, 21-6-8), JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP22K17821, and the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare Comprehensive Research on Life-Style Related (Diseases Cardiovascular Diseases and Diabetes Mellitus Program), Grant Number 22FA1015.

Identification of a circulating microRNAs biomarker panel for non-invasive diagnosis of coronary artery disease: case-control study

Background

Circulating microRNAs (miRNAs) are considered a hot spot of research that can be employed for monitoring and/or diagnostic purposes in coronary artery disease (CAD). Since different disease features might be reflected on altered profiles or plasma miRNAs concentrations, a combination of miRNAs can provide more reliable non-invasive biomarkers for CAD.

Subjects and methods

We investigated a panel of 14-miRNAs selected using bioinformatics databases and current literature searching for miRNAs involved in CAD using quantitative real-time PCR technique in 73 CAD patients compared to 73 controls followed by function and pathway enrichment analysis for the 14-miRNAs.

Results

Our results revealed three out of the 14 circulating miRNAs understudy; miRNAs miR133a, miR155 and miR208a were downregulated. While 11 miRNAs were up-regulated in a descending order from highest fold change to lowest: miR-182, miR-145, miR-21, miR-126, miR-200b, miR-146A, miR-205, miR-135b, miR-196b, miR-140b and, miR-223. The ROC curve analysis indicated that miR-145, miR-182, miR-133a and, miR-205 were excellent biomarkers with the highest AUCs as biomarkers in CAD. All miRNAs under study except miR-208 revealed a statistically significant relation with dyslipidemia. MiR-126 and miR-155 showed significance with BMI grade, while only miR-133a showed significance with the obese patients in general. MiR-135b and miR-140b showed a significant correlation with the Wall Motion Severity Index. Pathway enrichment analysis for the miRNAS understudy revealed pathways relevant to the fatty acid biosynthesis, ECM-receptor interaction, proteoglycans in cancer, and adherens junction.

Conclusion

The results of this study identified a differentially expressed circulating miRNAs signature that can discriminate CAD patients from normal subjects. These results provide new insights into the significant role of miRNAs expression associated with CAD pathogenesis.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12872-022-02711-9.

Average Lifespan Shortened due to Stroke in Canada: A Nationwide Descriptive Study From 1990 to 2015

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

There are challenges in comparability when using existing life lost measures to examine long-term trends in premature mortality. To address this important issue, we have developed a novel measure termed average lifespan shortened (ALSS). In the present study, we used the ALSS measure to describe temporal changes in premature mortality due to stroke in the Canadian population from 1990 to 2015.

METHODS

Mortality data for stroke were obtained from the World Health Organization mortality database. Years of life lost was calculated using Canadian life tables. ALSS was calculated as the ratio of years of life lost in relation to the expected lifespan.

RESULTS

Over a 25-year timeframe, the age-standardized rates adjusted to the World Standard Population for deaths from all strokes and stroke types substantially decreased in both sexes. The ALSS measure indicated that men who died of stroke lost 12.1% of their lifespan in 1990 and 11.4% in 2015, whereas these values among women were 11.1% and 10.0%, respectively. Patients with subarachnoid hemorrhagic stroke lost the largest portion whereby both sexes lost about one-third of their lifespan in 1990 and one-fourth in 2015. Men with intracerebral hemorrhagic stroke lost around 18% of their lifespan in 1990 and 14% in 2015 as compared to women who lost about 16% and 12% over the same timeframe. The loss of lifespan for patients with ischemic stroke and other stroke types combined was relatively stable at about 10% throughout the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrated a modest improvement in lifespan among patients with stroke in Canada between 1990 and 2015. Our novel ALSS measure provides intuitive interpretation of temporal changes in lifespan among patients with stroke and helps to enhance our understanding of the burden of strokes in the Canadian population.

Survival in Adversity: Trends in Mortality Among Blacks in the United States, 1900-2010

The goal of this study was to analyze trends in black age-adjusted mortality rates (AADR) from 1900 through 2010 and to propose explanations. Analyses included a descriptive study of trends in AADR from major causes for blacks and age-specific all-cause mortality at each decade. In 1900, all-cause AADRs were higher for blacks than whites. Over the century, differences decreased substantially. Reductions mortality were greatest among young people, lowest among older adults. Deaths from infectious diseases showed the greatest decrease. Heart disease mortality among blacks increased from 1920 to 1950, then decreased by 2010. For men and women, AADRs for cancer rose to a peak in 1990, then declined. Stroke mortality decreased steadily for males and females. AADRs from unintentional injuries (not including motor vehicle injury) decreased gradually. Despite widespread societal resistance, blacks have made substantial gains in a wide range of social determinants of health, such as civil rights, education, employment, income, and housing. Substantial gains remain to be made.

MicroRNAs in cardiovascular disease

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the predominant cause of human morbidity and mortality in developed countries. Currently, microRNAs have been investigated in many diseases as well-promising biomarkers for diagnosis, prognosis, and disease monitoring. Plenty studies have been designed so as to elucidate the properties of microRNAs in the classification and risk stratification of patients with CVD and also to evaluate their potentials in individualized management and guide treatment decisions. Therefore, in this review article, we aimed to present the most recent data concerning the role of microRNAs as potential novel biomarkers for cardiovascular disease.

Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Type-Specific Stroke Morbidity and Mortality in China

BACKGROUND

Stroke has become the leading cause of death in China. This study aimed to assess the age-period-cohort (APC) effects on the long-term trends of type-specific stroke morbidity and mortality in China between 1993 and 2017.Methods and Results:The data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 (GBD 2017) and were analyzed with the age-period-cohort framework. The net drifts of mortality were below 0 (hemorrhagic stroke [HS]: males: -1.620%, females: -3.531%; ischemic stroke [IS]: males: -1.041%, females: -3.002%), and the local drift values were below 0 in all age groups and for both genders. The net drifts of HS incidence were below 0 (males: -1.412%, females: -2.688%), while those of IS were above 0 (males: 1.425%, females: 1.117%). Period effect of mortality showed similar monotonic downward patterns for both genders, with a faster decrease for females than for males. Period effect of incidence showed a declined trend of incidence for HS, but an elevated trend for IS in both genders. After controlling for age and period effects, cohort effects on incidence found a monotonic decline trend for HS, while for IS, an elevated trend was found at first to peak during the 1950-1970 s, then declined steadily afterwards. Cohort effects on mortality showed a monotonic declined trend.

CONCLUSIONS

By using Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis, a disparity between HS and IS was identified. Different prevention and control strategies should be used depending on the subtypes of stroke.

Time Trends in Survival Following First Hemorrhagic or Ischemic Stroke Between 1991 and 2015 in the Rotterdam Study

Background and Purpose—

The introduction of stroke units and the implementation of evidence-based interventions have been a breakthrough in the management of patients with stroke over the past decade. Survival following stroke is an important indicator in monitoring stroke burden. Recent data on survival by stroke subtype in the general population is scarce. We assessed (1) recent temporal time trends in survival; (2) age-standardized death rates; (3) survival probabilities at 6 months, 1, 2, and 3 years following first hemorrhagic or ischemic stroke.

Methods—

Within the population-based Rotterdam Study between 1991 and 2015, we assessed time trends in survival among 162 with first-ever hemorrhagic and 988 patients with first-ever ischemic stroke across 3 time periods (1991–1998; 1999–2007; 2008–2015) using time-varying Cox regression model and calculated age-standardized death rates according to the European 2010 census population.

Results—

In the hemorrhagic stroke group, a total of 144 deaths occurred during 386 person-years. Following a hemorrhagic stroke, we observed similar mortality rates over the years with 30 per 100 person-years in 2015 compared with 25/100 person-years in 1991. Similarly, compared with the earliest study period (1991–1998), mortality rates remained unchanged in the latest study period (2008–2015; hazard ratio, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.61–1.57]; P =0.93). In the ischemic stroke group, a total of 711 deaths occurred during 4897 person-years. We observed a decline in mortality rates in 2015 (11 per 100 person-years) compared with 1991 (29/100 person-years). This translated to favorable trends in the latest study period 2008 to 2015 (hazard ratio, 0.71 [95% CI, 0.56–0.90]; P <0.01).

Conclusions—

Survival following ischemic stroke has improved over the past decade, while no change was observed in survival following hemorrhagic stroke.

Long-term trends in death and dependence after ischaemic strokes: A retrospective cohort study using the South London Stroke Register (SLSR)

BACKGROUND

There have been reductions in stroke mortality over recent decades, but estimates by aetiological subtypes are limited. This study estimates time trends in mortality and functional dependence by ischaemic stroke (IS) aetiological subtype over a 16-year period.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The study population was 357,308 in 2011; 50.4% were males, 56% were white, and 25% were of black ethnic backgrounds. Population-based case ascertainment of stroke was conducted, and all participants who had their first-ever IS between 2000 and 2015 were identified. Further classification was concluded according to the underlying mechanism into large-artery atherosclerosis (LAA), cardio-embolism (CE), small-vessel occlusion (SVO), other determined aetiologies (OTH), and undetermined aetiologies (UND). Temporal trends in survival rates were examined using proportional-hazards survival modelling, adjusted for demography, prestroke risk factors, case mix variables, and processes of care. We carried out additional regression analyses to explore patterns in case-fatality rates (CFRs) at 30 days and 1 year and to explore whether these trends occurred at the expense of greater functional dependence (Barthel Index [BI] < 15) among survivors. A total of 3,128 patients with first-ever ISs were registered. The median age was 70.7 years; 50.9% were males; and 66.2% were white, 25.5% were black, and 8.3% were of other ethnic groups. Between 2000-2003 and 2012-2015, the adjusted overall mortality decreased by 24% (hazard ratio [HR] per year 0.976; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.959-0.993). Mortality reductions were equally noted in both sexes and in the white and black populations but were only significant in CE strokes (HR per year 0.972; 95% CI 0.945‒0.998) and in patients aged ≥55 years (HR per year 0.975; 95% CI 0.959‒0.992). CFRs within 30 days and 1 year after an IS declined by 38% (rate ratio [RR] per year 0.962; 95% CI 0.941‒0.984) and 37% (RR per year 0.963; 95% CI 0.949‒0.976), respectively. Recent IS was independently associated with a 23% reduced risk of functional dependence at 3 months after onset (RR per year 0.983; 95% CI 0.968-0.998; p = 0.002 for trend). The study is limited by small number of events in certain subgroups (e.g., LAA), which could have led to insufficient power to detect significant trends.

CONCLUSIONS

Both mortality and 3-month functional dependence after IS decreased by an annual average of around 2.4% and 1.7%, respectively, during 2000‒2015. Such reductions were particularly evident in strokes of CE origins and in those aged ≥55 years.

Male Mortality Trends in the United States, 1900-2010: Progress, Challenges, and Opportunities

OBJECTIVES

Male mortality fell substantially during the past century, and major causes of death changed. Building on our recent analysis of female mortality trends in the United States, we examined all-cause and cause-specific mortality trends at each decade from 1900 to 2010 among US males.

METHODS

We conducted a descriptive study of age-adjusted death rates (AADRs) for 11 categories of disease and injury stratified by race (white, nonwhite, and, when available, black), the excess of male mortality over female mortality ([male AADR - female AADR]/female AADR), and potential causes of persistent excess of male mortality. We used national mortality data for each decade.

RESULTS

From 1900 to 2010, the all-cause AADR declined 66.4% among white males and 74.5% among nonwhite males. Five major causes of death in 1900 were pneumonia and influenza, heart disease, stroke, tuberculosis, and unintentional nonmotor vehicle injuries; in 2010, infectious conditions were replaced by cancers and chronic lower respiratory diseases. The all-cause excess of male mortality rose from 9.1% in 1900 to 65.5% in 1980 among white males and a peak of 63.7% in 1990 among nonwhite males, subsequently falling among all groups.

CONCLUSION

During the last century, AADRs among males declined more slowly than among females. Although the gap diminished in recent decades, exploration of social and behavioral factors may inform interventions that could further reduce death rates among males.

Divergent trends in ischaemic heart disease and stroke mortality in India from 2000 to 2015: a nationally representative mortality study

Introduction

India accounts for about a fifth of cardiovascular deaths globally, but nationally representative data on mortality trends are not yet available. In this nationwide mortality study, we aimed to assess the trends in ischaemic heart disease and stroke mortality over 15 years using the Million Death Study.

Methods

We determined national and subnational cardiovascular mortality rates and trends by sex and birth cohort using cause of death ascertained by verbal autopsy from 2001 to 2013 among 2·4 million households. We derived mortality rates for ischaemic heart disease and stroke by applying mortality proportions to UN mortality estimates for India and projected the rates from 2000 to 2015.

Findings

Cardiovascular disease caused more than 2·1 million deaths in India in 2015 at all ages, or more than a quarter of all deaths. At ages 30–69 years, of 1·3 million cardiovascular deaths, 0·9 million (68·4%) were caused by ischaemic heart disease and 0·4 million (28·0%) by stroke. At these ages, the probability of dying from ischaemic heart disease increased during 2000–15, from 10·4% to 13·1% in men and 4·8% to 6·6% in women. Ischaemic heart disease mortality rates in rural areas increased rapidly and surpassed those in urban areas. By contrast, the probability of dying from stroke decreased from 5·7% to 5·0% in men and 5·0% to 3·9% in women. A third of premature stroke deaths occurred in the northeastern states, inhabited by a sixth of India’s population, where rates increased significantly and were three times higher than the national average. The increased mortality rates of ischaemic heart disease nationally and stroke in the northeastern states were higher in the cohorts of adults born in the 1970s onwards, than in earlier decades. A large and growing proportion of the ischaemic heart disease nationally and stroke deaths in high-burden states reported earlier diagnosis of cardiovascular disease, but low medication use.

Interpretation

The unexpectedly diverse patterns of cardiovascular mortality require investigation to identify the role of established and new cardiovascular risk factors. Secondary prevention with effective and inexpensive long-term treatment and adult smoking cessation could prevent substantial numbers of premature deaths. Without progress against the control of cardiovascular disease in India, global goals to reduce non-communicable diseases by 2030 will be difficult to achieve.

Funding

Fogarty International Center of the US National Institutes of Health, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Indian Council of Medical Research, and the Disease Control Priorities.

Central and Peripheral Secondary Cell Death Processes after Transient Global Ischemia in Nonhuman Primate Cerebellum and Heart

Cerebral ischemia and its pathological sequelae are responsible for severe neurological deficits generally attributed to the neural death within the infarcted tissue and adjacent regions. Distal brain regions, and even peripheral organs, may be subject to more subtle consequences of the primary ischemic event which can initiate parallel disease processes and promote comorbid symptomology. In order to characterize the susceptibility of cerebellar brain regions and the heart to transient global ischemia (TGI) in nonhuman primates (NHP), brain and heart tissues were harvested 6 months post-TGI injury. Immunostaining analysis with unbiased stereology revealed significant cell death in lobule III and IX of the TGI cerebellum when compared to sham cerebellum, coinciding with an increase in inflammatory and apoptotic markers. Cardiac tissue analysis showed similar increases in inflammatory and apoptotic cells within TGI hearts. A progressive inflammatory response and cell death within the cerebellum and heart of chronic TGI NHPs indicate secondary injury processes manifesting both centrally and peripherally. This understanding of distal disease processes of cerebral ischemia underscores the importance of the chronic aberrant inflammatory response and emphasizes the needs for therapeutic options tailored to target these pathways. Here, we discuss the protocols for characterizing the histopathological effects of transient global ischemia in nonhuman primate cerebellum and heart, with an emphasis on the inflammatory and apoptotic cell death processes.

Chronic inflammation and apoptosis propagate in ischemic cerebellum and heart of non-human primates

The major pathological consequences of cerebral ischemia are characterized by neurological deficits commonly ascribed to the infarcted tissue and its surrounding region, however, brain areas, as well as peripheral organs, distal from the original injury may manifest as subtle disease sequelae that can increase the risks of co-morbidities complicating the disease symptoms. To evaluate the vulnerability of the cerebellum and the heart to secondary injuries in the late stage of transient global ischemia (TGI) model in non-human primates (NHP), brain and heart tissues were collected at six months post-TGI. Unbiased stereological analyses of immunostained tissues showed significant Purkinje cells loss in lobule III and lobule IX of the TGI cerebellum relative to sham cerebellum, with corresponding upregulation of inflammatory and apoptotic cells. Similarly, TGI hearts revealed significant activation of inflammatory and apoptotic cells relative to sham hearts. Aberrant inflammation and apoptosis in the cerebellum and the heart of chronic TGI-exposed NHPs suggest distal secondary injuries manifesting both centrally and peripherally. These results advance our understanding on the sustained propagation of chronic secondary injuries after TGI, highlighting the need to develop therapeutic interventions targeting the brain, as well as the heart, in order to abrogate cerebral ischemia and its related co-morbidities.

Kudiezi injection mitigates myocardial injury induced by acute cerebral ischemia in rats

Background

Kudiezi (KDZ) injection is commonly used in traditional Chinese medicine as treatment for cerebral infarction and angina pectoris. The present study investigated the therapeutic effects of KDZ injection on myocardial injury induced by acute cerebral ischemia and the possibly protective mechanisms.

Methods

Rats were divided into three groups: sham, 6h-ischemia, and KDZ treatment (KDZ). The neurological deficits were determined by the Garcia score. The cerebral infarct volume was measured by 2,3,5-triphenyltetrazolium chloride (TTC) staining, and brain water content was also evaluated. Serum creatinine kinase (CK), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and creatine kinase-myocardial band (CK-MB) activity, myocardial tissue malondialdehyde (MDA) levels, L-Glutathione (GSH) levels, and superoxide dismutase (SOD) activity as well as mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase (COX) activity were determined. Mitochondrial COX I and COX III mRNA expressions of myocardial tissues were measured by RT-PCR.

Results

Impaired neurological function and brain edema were observed in the 6h-ischemia group. TTC staining showed that the 6h-ischemia group had larger infarct zones than the sham group. Myocardial ischemic changes (widened myocardial cell gap, cracks, and obvious edema) were detected in the 6h-ischemia group compared with the sham group, with elevated serum CK-MB activity and CK and LDH levels. Electrocardiography showed lower medium frequency (MF) and high frequency (HF) in the 6h-ischemia group compared with the sham group. In myocardial tissue, COX activity was elevated in the 6h-ischemia compared with the sham group, while SOD, GSH, and MDA levels, and COX I and COX III mRNA expressions remained unchanged. KDZ injection decreased neurological impairment, brain edema, gaps between cells, and infarct size. Compared with the 6h-ischemia group, it reduced serum CK-MB activity and CK and LDH levels, and MDA levels in myocardial tissue. KDZ significantly increased GSH levels, SOD activity, and mitochondria COX activity and the expression of COX I and COX III mRNA in myocardial tissue compared with the sham group.

Conclusion

KDZ injection had a protective effect against cerebral ischemia in rats. KDZ injection could also alleviate myocardial injury after acute cerebral ischemia in rats. The possible mechanisms involve the regulation of the oxidative stress/antioxidant capacity after cerebral ischemia.

The role of miRNAs in cardiovascular disease risk factors

Coronary artery disease and atherosclerosis are complex pathologies that develop over time due to genetic and environmental factors. Differential expression of miRNAs has been identified in patients with coronary artery disease and atherosclerosis, however, their association with cardiovascular disease risk factors, including hyperlipidemia, hypertension, obesity, diabetes, lack of physical activity and smoking, remains unclear. This review examines the role of miRNAs as either biomarkers or potential contributors to the pathophysiology of these aforementioned risk factors. It is intended to provide an overview of the published literature which describes alterations in miRNA levels in both human and animal studies of cardiovascular risk factors and when known, the possible mechanism by which these miRNAs may exert either beneficial or deleterious effects. The intent of this review is engage clinical, translational, and basic scientists to design future collaborative studies to further elucidate the potential role of miRNAs in cardiovascular diseases.

Danhong injection attenuates cardiac injury induced by ischemic and reperfused neuronal cells through regulating arginine vasopressin expression and secretion

Ischemic stroke is associated with cardiac myocyte vulnerability through some unknown mechanisms. Arginine vasopressin (AVP) may exert considerable function in the relationship of brain damage and heart failure. Danhong injection (DHI) can protect both stroke and heart failure patients with good efficacy in clinics. The aim of this study is to investigate the mechanism of DHI in heart and brain co-protection effects to determine whether AVP plays key role in this course. In the present study, we found that both the supernatant from oxygen-glucose deprivation (OGD) and reperfused primary rat neuronal cells (PRNCs) and AVP treatment caused significant reduction in cell viability and mitochondrial activity in primary rat cardiac myocytes (RCMs). Besides, DHI had the same protective effects with conivaptan, a dual vasopressin V1A and V2 receptor antagonist, in reducing the RCM damage induced by overdose AVP. DHI significantly decreased the injury of both PRNCs and RCMs. Meanwhile, the AVP level was elevated dramatically in OGD and reperfusion PRNCs, and DHI was able to decrease the AVP expression in the injured PRNCs. Therefore, our present results suggested that OGD and reperfusion PRNCs might induce myocyte injury by elevating the AVP expression in PRNCs. The ability of DHI to reinstate AVP level may be one of the mechanisms of its brain and heart co-protection effects.

The Role of Adiponectin in Cardiometabolic Diseases: Effects of Nutritional Interventions

Adiponectin is an adipocyte-derived hormone abundantly present in plasma that exerts its effects through the activation of 3 receptors. Its concentrations are negatively regulated by the accumulation of visceral fat, and clinical studies implicate hypoadiponectinemia in the pathogenesis of diabetes mellitus type 2, coronary artery disease, hypertension, and left ventricular hypertrophy. In contrast, high concentrations of adiponectin are associated with a decreased risk of coronary artery disease, with an improvement in the differentiation of preadipocytes into adipocytes, and with increased endothelial nitric oxide production. Therefore, adiponectin appears to be an important molecule involved in limiting the pathogenesis of obesity-linked disorders, and it may have potential benefits in the treatment and prevention of cardiovascular disease. Caloric restriction, moderate alcohol consumption, and consuming a Mediterranean diet increase adiponectin concentrations, and current evidence suggests a positive, dose-dependent relation between ω-3 (n-3) fatty acid intake and circulating concentrations of adiponectin. Recently, it was reported that the administration of aged garlic extract and a single food intervention with pistachios can increase adiponectin concentrations in individuals with metabolic syndrome. Moreover, the Mediterranean diet is associated with higher adiponectin concentrations. Additional studies are needed to evaluate the potential benefits of increasing adiponectin by nutritional interventions in the treatment and prevention of cardiometabolic diseases.

Stroke and cardiac cell death: Two peas in a pod

A close pathological link between stroke brain and heart failure may exist. Here, we discuss relevant laboratory and clinical reports demonstrating neural and cardiac myocyte cell death following ischemic stroke. Although various overlapping risk factors exist between cerebrovascular incidents and cardiac incidents, stroke therapy has largely neglected the cardiac pathological consequences. Recent preclinical stroke studies have implicated an indirect cell death pathway, involving toxic molecules, that originates from the stroke brain and produces cardiac cell death. In concert, previous laboratory reports have revealed a reverse cell death cascade, in that cardiac arrest leads to ischemic cell death in the brain. A deeper understanding of the crosstalk of cell death pathways between stroke and cardiac failure will facilitate the development of novel treatments designed to arrest the global pathology of both diseases thereby improving the clinical outcomes of patients diagnosed with stroke and heart failure.

Contributions of risk factors and medical care to cardiovascular mortality trends

Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and other cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) lead to 17.5 million deaths worldwide per year. Taking into account population ageing, CVD death rates are decreasing steadily both in regions with reliable trend data and globally. The declines in high-income countries and some Latin American countries have been ongoing for decades without slowing. These positive trends have broadly coincided with, and benefited from, declines in smoking and physiological risk factors, such as blood pressure and serum cholesterol levels. These declines have also coincided with, and benefited from, improvements in medical care, including primary prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of acute CVDs, as well as post-hospital care, especially in the past 40 years. These variables, however, explain neither why the decline began when it did, nor the similarities and differences in the start time and rate of the decline between countries and sexes. In Russia and some other former Soviet countries, changes in volume and patterns of alcohol consumption have caused sharp rises in CVD mortality since the early 1990s. An important challenge in reaching firm conclusions about the drivers of these remarkable international trends is the paucity of time-trend data on CVD incidence, risk factors throughout the life-course, and clinical care.

The global burden of hemorrhagic stroke: a summary of findings from the GBD 2010 study

This report summarizes the findings of the GBD 2010 (Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors) study for hemorrhagic stroke (HS). Multiple databases were searched for relevant studies published between 1990 and 2010. The GBD 2010 study provided standardized estimates of the incidence, mortality, mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) lost for HS (including intracerebral hemorrhage and subarachnoid hemorrhage) by age, sex, and income level (high-income countries [HIC]; low- and middle-income countries [LMIC]) for 21 GBD 2010 regions in 1990, 2005, and 2010. In 2010, there were 5.3 million cases of HS and over 3.0 million deaths due to HS. There was a 47% increase worldwide in the absolute number of HS cases. The largest proportion of HS incident cases (80%) and deaths (63%) occurred in LMIC countries. There were 62.8 million DALY lost (86% in LMIC) due to HS. The overall age-standardized incidence rate of HS per 100,000 person-years in 2010 was 48.41 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 45.44 to 52.13) in HIC and 99.43 (95% CI: 85.37 to 116.28) in LMIC, and 81.52 (95% CI: 72.27 to 92.82) globally. The age-standardized incidence of HS increased by 18.5% worldwide between 1990 and 2010. In HIC, there was a reduction in incidence of HS by 8% (95% CI: 1% to 15%), mortality by 38% (95% CI: 32% to 43%), DALY by 39% (95% CI: 32% to 44%), and MIR by 27% (95% CI: 19% to 35%) in the last 2 decades. In LMIC countries, there was a significant increase in the incidence of HS by 22% (95% CI: 5% to 30%), whereas there was a significant reduction in mortality rates of 23% (95% CI: -3% to 36%), DALY lost of 25% (95% CI: 7% to 38%), and MIR by 36% (95% CI: 16% to 49%). There were significant regional differences in incidence rates of HS, with the highest rates in LMIC regions such as sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia, and lowest rates in High Income North America and Western Europe. The worldwide burden of HS has increased over the last 2 decades in terms of absolute numbers of HS incident events. The majority of the burden of HS is borne by LMIC. Rates for HS incidence, mortality, and DALY lost, as well as MIR decreased in the past 2 decades in HIC, but increased significantly in LMIC countries, particularly in those patients ≤75 years. HS affected people at a younger age in LMIC than in HIC. The lowest incidence and mortality rates in 2010 were in High Income North America, Australasia, and Western Europe, whereas the highest rates were in Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. These results suggest that reducing the burden of HS is a priority particularly in LMIC. The GBD 2010 findings may be a useful resource for planning strategies to reduce the global burden of HS.

Setting priorities for stroke care and research

Recent publications describing the sobering global increase in stroke mortality and global life years lost due to stroke despite improvements in developed countries have drawn focus on the severe impact of stroke in the developing world. At the same time, three recent interventional trials that failed to demonstrate an important role for catheter-based therapies in acute stroke have called into question this expensive use of technology. Coupling all of this new data leads to the natural conclusion that a focus on stroke prevention for the developing world, and for the poor in developed countries, should be where we set our priorities for the foreseeable future.

Ischemic stroke brain sends indirect cell death signals to the heart

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Ischemic stroke is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity in the world and may be associated with cardiac myocyte vulnerability. However, it remains uncertain how an ischemic brain contributes to cardiac alternations. Here, we used experimental stroke models to reveal the pathological effects of the ischemic brain on the heart.

METHODS

For the in vitro study, primary rat neuronal cells were subjected to 90-minute oxygen-glucose deprivation (OGD). Two hours after OGD, the supernatant was collected and cryopreserved until further biological assays. Primary rat cardiac myocytes were exposed to ischemic-reperfusion injury and subsequently to the supernatant derived from either the OGD or non-OGD-exposed primary rat neuronal cells for 2, 6, 24, or 48 hours. Thereafter, we measured cell viability and mitochondrial activity in rat cardiac myocytes. For the in vivo study, we subjected adult rats to transient middle cerebral artery occlusion, and their brains and hearts were harvested for immunohistochemical analyses at 3 months later.

RESULTS

The supernatant from the OGD, but not the non-OGD-exposed primary rat neuronal cells, caused significant reduction in cell viability and mitochondrial activity in rat cardiac myocytes. Ischemic stroke animals displayed phenotypic expression of necrosis, apoptosis, and autophagy in their hearts, which paralleled the detection of these same cell death markers in their brains.

CONCLUSIONS

Ischemic stroke was accompanied by cardiac myocyte death, indicating a close pathological link between brain and heart. These results suggest a vigilant assessment of the heart condition in stroke patients, likely requiring the need to treat systemic cardiac symptoms after an ischemic brain episode.

Global and regional burden of first-ever ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke during 1990-2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND

The burden of ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke varies between regions and over time. With differences in prognosis, prevalence of risk factors, and treatment strategies, knowledge of stroke pathological type is important for targeted region-specific health-care planning for stroke and could inform priorities for type-specific prevention strategies. We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) to estimate the global and regional burden of first-ever ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke during 1990-2010.

METHODS

We searched Medline, Embase, LILACS, Scopus, PubMed, Science Direct, Global Health Database, the WHO library, and regional databases from 1990 to 2012 to identify relevant studies published between 1990 and 2010. We applied the GBD 2010 analytical technique (DisMod-MR) to calculate regional and country-specific estimates for ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke incidence, mortality, mortality-to-incidence ratio, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost, by age group (aged <75 years, ≥ 75 years, and in total) and country income level (high-income and low-income and middle-income) for 1990, 2005, and 2010.

FINDINGS

We included 119 studies (58 from high-income countries and 61 from low-income and middle-income countries). Worldwide, the burden of ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke increased significantly between 1990 and 2010 in terms of the absolute number of people with incident ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke (37% and 47% increase, respectively), number of deaths (21% and 20% increase), and DALYs lost (18% and 14% increase). In the past two decades in high-income countries, incidence of ischaemic stroke reduced significantly by 13% (95% CI 6-18), mortality by 37% (19-39), DALYs lost by 34% (16-36), and mortality-to-incidence ratios by 21% (10-27). For haemorrhagic stroke, incidence reduced significantly by 19% (1-15), mortality by 38% (32-43), DALYs lost by 39% (32-44), and mortality-to-incidence ratios by 27% (19-35). By contrast, in low-income and middle-income countries, we noted a significant increase of 22% (5-30) in incidence of haemorrhagic stroke and a 6% (-7 to 18) non-significant increase in the incidence of ischaemic stroke. Mortality rates for ischaemic stroke fell by 14% (9-19), DALYs lost by 17% (-11 to 21%), and mortality-to-incidence ratios by 16% (-12 to 22). For haemorrhagic stroke in low-income and middle-income countries, mortality rates reduced by 23% (-18 to 25%), DALYs lost by 25% (-21 to 28), and mortality-to-incidence ratios by 36% (-34 to 28).

INTERPRETATION

Although age-standardised mortality rates for ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke have decreased in the past two decades, the absolute number of people who have these stroke types annually, and the number with related deaths and DALYs lost, is increasing, with most of the burden in low-income and middle-income countries. Further study is needed in these countries to identify which subgroups of the population are at greatest risk and who could be targeted for preventive efforts.

Age-period-cohort projections of ischaemic heart disease mortality by socio-economic position in a rapidly transitioning Chinese population

Background

With economic development and population aging, ischaemic heart disease (IHD) is becoming a leading cause of mortality with widening inequalities in China. To forewarn the trends in China we projected IHD trends in the most economically developed part of China, i.e., Hong Kong.

Methods

Based on sex-specific IHD mortality rates from 1976 to 2005, we projected mortality rates by neighborhood-level socio-economic position (i.e., low- or high-income groups) to 2020 in Hong Kong using Poisson age-period-cohort models with autoregressive priors.

Results

In the low-income group, age-standardized IHD mortality rates among women declined from 33.3 deaths in 1976–1980 to 19.7 per 100,000 in 2016–2020 (from 55.5 deaths to 34.2 per 100,000 among men). The rates in the high-income group were initially higher in both sexes, particularly among men, but this had reversed by the end of the study periods. The rates declined faster for the high-income group than for the low-income group in both sexes. The rates were projected to decline faster in the high-income group, such that by the end of the projection period the high-income group would have lower IHD mortality rates, particularly for women. Birth cohort effects varied with sex, with a marked upturn in IHD mortality around 1945, i.e., for the first generation of men to grow up in a more economically developed environment. There was no such upturn in women. Birth cohort effects were the main drivers of change in IHD mortality rates.

Conclusion

IHD mortality rates are declining in Hong Kong and are projected to continue to do so, even taking into account greater vulnerability for the first generation of men born into a more developed environment. At the same time social disparities in IHD have reversed and are widening, partly as a result of a cohort effect, with corresponding implications for prevention.

State differences in the reporting of 'unspecified stroke' on death certificates: implications for improvement

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Little is known about the comparability of stroke subtype mortality across states. We conducted a cross-sectional descriptive study to examine state differences in the reporting of "unspecified stroke" on death certificates in the United States.

METHODS

The number of deaths from different subtypes of stroke in each state for the years 2007 to 2009 were obtained from the CDC WONDER online databases. We calculated the percentage of stroke deaths classified as unspecified stroke (International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision [ICD-10] code I64) among all stroke deaths (ICD-10 codes I60-I69) for each state.

RESULTS

Of 398 942 people who died from stoke in the United States between 2007 and 2009, in 209 933 (53%) cases, the medical certifier did not specify whether the stroke was hemorrhage or infarction on the death certificate. There were 44 states in which the percentage of unspecified stroke among all strokes was ≥50 and 20 states in which the percentage was ≥55%. The percentage was lowest in the District of Columbia (46%) and highest in Oklahoma (64%). The state variation in the proportion of unspecified stroke decreased with age of the deceased. The state percentage of unspecified stroke correlated most with the state percentage of cerebral infarction and other and sequelae of cerebrovascular disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Owing to the high percentage and state variation in the reporting of unspecified stroke on death certificates, the comparability of stroke subtype mortality is threatened. Querying of medical certifiers for more specific information for better coding is needed.

The changing gender differences in life expectancy in Korea 1970-2005

Women live much longer than men in Korea, with remarkable gains in life expectancy at birth for the past decades. The gender differential has steadily increased over time, reaching a peak of more than 8 years in 1980s, and decreased thereafter to 6.7 years in 2005. Studies to investigate the pattern and contributing factors to changes in the life expectancy gender gap have been mostly from Western countries, and there has been no such study in Asian countries, except in Japan. We therefore aimed to examine age- and cause-specific contributions to the changing gender differentials in life expectancy in Korea, in particular the decline of the gap, using a decomposition method. Between 1970 and 1979 when the gender gap in life expectancy widened, faster mortality decline among women in ages 20-44 explained 66% of the total increase in the gender gap, which would be due to substantial improvements in reproductive health among women and excess male mortality in occupational injuries and transport accidents. Although greater survival advantage among elderly women over 70 contributed to further increase in the gender gap, the contributions from younger ages with the ages 15-64 contributing the most (-2 years) resulted in the overall reduction of the gender gap which began in 1992 and continued to 2005. Among causes of death, liver diseases (-0.5 years, 38% of the total decline), transport accidents (-0.4 years, 31%), hypertensive diseases (-0.3 years, 19%), stroke (-0.1 years, 11%), and tuberculosis (-0.1 years) contributed the most to the overall 1.4 years reduction in the gender gap. However, changes in mortality from lung cancer (+0.3 years), suicide (+0.3 years), chronic lower respiratory diseases (+0.2 years), and ischemic heart diseases (+0.1 years) contributed to widening the gap during the same period. In sum, while smoking-related causes of death have contributed most to the narrowing gap in most other industrialized countries, these causes contributed toward increasing the gender gap in Korea. Instead, liver disease, hypertension-related diseases, and transport accidents were major contributing causes of death to the narrowing of gender differentials in life expectancy in Korea.

Is the use of cholesterol in mortality risk algorithms in clinical guidelines valid? Ten years prospective data from the Norwegian HUNT 2 study

RATIONALE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

Many clinical guidelines for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention contain risk estimation charts/calculators. These have shown a tendency to overestimate risk, which indicates that there might be theoretical flaws in the algorithms. Total cholesterol is a frequently used variable in the risk estimates. Some studies indicate that the predictive properties of cholesterol might not be as straightforward as widely assumed. Our aim was to document the strength and validity of total cholesterol as a risk factor for mortality in a well-defined, general Norwegian population without known CVD at baseline.

METHODS

We assessed the association of total serum cholesterol with total mortality, as well as mortality from CVD and ischaemic heart disease (IHD), using Cox proportional hazard models. The study population comprises 52 087 Norwegians, aged 20-74, who participated in the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT 2, 1995-1997) and were followed-up on cause-specific mortality for 10 years (510 297 person-years in total).

RESULTS

Among women, cholesterol had an inverse association with all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR): 0.94; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.89-0.99 per 1.0 mmol L(-1) increase] as well as CVD mortality (HR: 0.97; 95% CI: 0.88-1.07). The association with IHD mortality (HR: 1.07; 95% CI: 0.92-1.24) was not linear but seemed to follow a 'U-shaped' curve, with the highest mortality <5.0 and ≥7.0 mmol L(-1) . Among men, the association of cholesterol with mortality from CVD (HR: 1.06; 95% CI: 0.98-1.15) and in total (HR: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.93-1.03) followed a 'U-shaped' pattern.

CONCLUSION

Our study provides an updated epidemiological indication of possible errors in the CVD risk algorithms of many clinical guidelines. If our findings are generalizable, clinical and public health recommendations regarding the 'dangers' of cholesterol should be revised. This is especially true for women, for whom moderately elevated cholesterol (by current standards) may prove to be not only harmless but even beneficial.

Spontaneous upper limb monoplegia secondary to probable cerebral amyloid angiopathy

Cerebral amyloid angiopathy is a clinicopathological disorder characterised by vascular amyloid deposition initially in leptomeningeal and neocortical vessels, and later affecting cortical and subcortical regions. The presence of amyloid within the walls of these vessels leads to a propensity for primary intracerebral haemorrhage. We report the unusual case of a 77-year-old female who presented to our emergency department with sudden onset isolated hypoaesthesia and right upper limb monoplegia. A CT scan demonstrated a peripheral acute haematoma involving the left perirolandic cortices. Subsequent magnetic resonance imaging demonstrated previous superficial haemorrhagic events. One week following discharge the patient re-attended with multiple short-lived episodes of aphasia and jerking of the right upper limb. Further imaging demonstrated oedematous changes around the previous haemorrhagic insult. Cerebral amyloid angiopathy is an overlooked cause of intracerebral haemorrhage; the isolated nature of the neurological deficit in this case illustrates the many guises in which it can present.

The Second Stroke Audit of Catalonia shows improvements in many, but not all quality indicators

BACKGROUND

Periodic audits allow monitoring of healthcare quality by comparing performances at different time points. Aims To assess quality of in-hospital stroke care in Catalonia in 2007 and compare it with 2005 (post-/preguidelines delivery, respectively).

METHODS

Data on 13 evidence-based performance measures were collected by a retrospective review of medical records of consecutive stroke admissions (January-December 2007) to 47 acute hospitals in Catalonia. Adherence was calculated according to the ratio (patients with documented performance measures' compliance) (valid cases for that measure). Sampling weights were applied to produce estimates of compliance. The proportions of compliance with performance measures in both audits were compared using random-effects logistic regressions, with each performance measure as the dependent variable and audit edition as the explanatory variable to determine whether changes in stroke care quality occurred along time.

RESULTS

We analyzed 1767 events distributed among 47 hospitals. In 2007, there was an increase in tissue plasminogen activator administrations (2·8% vs. 5·9%) and stroke unit admissions (16·6% vs. 22·6%) and a reduction in seven-day mortality (9·5% vs. 6·8%). Logistic regression models provided evidence of improved adherences to seven performance measures (screening of dysphagia, management of hyperthermia, baseline computed tomography scan, baseline glycemia, rehabilitation needs, early mobilization, and anticoagulants for atrial fibrillation), but worsening of management of hypertension, dyslipidemia, and antithrombotics at discharge. The remaining three performance measures showed no changes.

CONCLUSIONS

The Second Stroke Audit showed improvements in most dimensions of care, although unexpectedly a few but relevant performance measures became worse. Therefore, periodic stroke audits are needed to check changes in quality of care over time.

The economic burden of ill health due to diet, physical inactivity, smoking, alcohol and obesity in the UK: an update to 2006-07 NHS costs

BACKGROUND

Estimates of the economic cost of risk factors for chronic disease to the NHS provide evidence for prioritization of resources for prevention and public health. Previous comparable estimates of the economic costs of poor diet, physical inactivity, smoking, alcohol and overweight/obesity were based on economic data from 1992-93.

METHODS

Diseases associated with poor diet, physical inactivity, smoking, alcohol and overweight/obesity were identified. Risk factor-specific population attributable fractions for these diseases were applied to disease-specific estimates of the economic cost to the NHS in the UK in 2006-07.

RESULTS

In 2006-07, poor diet-related ill health cost the NHS in the UK £5.8 billion. The cost of physical inactivity was £0.9 billion. Smoking cost was £3.3 billion, alcohol cost £3.3 billion, overweight and obesity cost £5.1 billion.

CONCLUSION

The estimates of the economic cost of risk factors for chronic disease presented here are based on recent financial data and are directly comparable. They suggest that poor diet is a behavioural risk factor that has the highest impact on the budget of the NHS, followed by alcohol consumption, smoking and physical inactivity.

UK stroke incidence, mortality and cardiovascular risk management 1999-2008: time-trend analysis from the General Practice Research Database

OBJECTIVES

Stroke is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to investigate secular trends in stroke across the UK.

DESIGN

This study aimed to investigate recent trends in the epidemiology of stroke in the UK. The study was a time-trend analysis from 1999 to 2008 within the UK General Practice Research Database. Outcome measures were incidence and prevalence of stroke, stroke mortality, rate of secondary cardiovascular events, and prescribing of pharmacological therapy for primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease.

RESULTS

The study cohort included 32,151 patients with a first stroke. Stroke incidence fell by 30%, from 1.48/1000 person-years in 1999 to 1.04/1000 person-years in 2008 (p<0.001). Stroke prevalence increased by 12.5%, from 6.40/1000 in 1999 to 7.20/1000 in 2008 (p<0.001). 56-day mortality after first stroke reduced from 21% in 1999 to 12% in 2008 (p<0.0001). Prescribing of drugs to control cardiovascular risk factors increased consistently over the study period, particularly for lipid lowering agents and antihypertensive agents. In patients with atrial fibrillation, use of anticoagulants prior to first stroke did not increase with increasing stroke risk.

CONCLUSION

Stroke incidence in the UK has decreased and survival after stroke has improved in the past 10 years. Improved drug treatment in primary care is likely to be a major contributor to this, with better control of risk factors both before and after incident stroke. There is, however, scope for further improvement in risk factor reduction in high-risk patients with atrial fibrillation.

A Stepwise Approach to Stroke Surveillance in Brazil: the EMMA (Estudo de Mortalidade E Morbidade Do Acidente Vascular Cerebral) Study

Background:

Stroke mortality rates in Brazil are the highest in the Americas. Deaths from cerebrovascular disease surpass coronary heart disease.

Aim:

To verify stroke mortality rates and morbidity in an area of São Paulo, Brazil, using the World Health Organization Stepwise Approach to Stroke Surveillance.

Methods:

We used the World Health Organization Stepwise Approach to Stroke Surveillance structure of stroke surveillance. The hospital-based data comprised fatal and nonfatal stroke (Step 1). We gathered stroke-related mortality data in the community using World Health Organization questionnaires (Step 2). The questionnaire determining stroke prevalence was activated door to door in a family-health-programme neighbourhood (Step 3).

Results:

A total of 682 patients 18 years and above, including 472 incident cases, presented with cerebrovascular disease and were enrolled in Step 1 during April–May 2009. Cerebral infarction (84.3%) and first-ever stroke (85.2%) were the most frequent. In Step 2, 256 deaths from stroke were identified during 2006–2007. Forty-four per cent of deaths were classified as unspecified stroke, 1/3 as ischaemic stroke, and 1/4 due to haemorrhagic subtype. In Step 3, 577 subjects over 35 years old were evaluated at home, and 244 cases of stroke survival were diagnosed via a questionnaire, validated by a board-certified neurologist. The population demographic characteristics were similar in the three steps, except in terms of age and gender.

Conclusion:

By including data from all settings, World Health Organization stroke surveillance can provide data to help plan future resources that meet the needs of the public-health system.

Temporal trends in hospitalisation for stroke recurrence following incident hospitalisation for stroke in Scotland

BACKGROUND

There are few studies that have investigated temporal trends in risk of recurrent stroke. The aim of this study was to examine temporal trends in hospitalisation for stroke recurrence following incident hospitalisation for stroke in Scotland during 1986 to 2001.

METHODS

Unadjusted survival analysis of time to first event, hospitalisation for recurrent stroke or death, was undertaken using the cumulative incidence method which takes into account competing risks. Regression on cumulative incidence functions was used to model the temporal trends of first recurrent stroke with adjustment for age, sex, socioeconomic status and comorbidity. Complete five year follow-up was obtained for all patients. Restricted cubic splines were used to determine the best fitting relationship between the survival events and study year.

RESULTS

There were 128,511 incident hospitalisations for stroke in Scotland between 1986 and 2001, 57,351 (45%) in men. A total of 13,835 (10.8%) patients had a recurrent hospitalisation for stroke within five years of their incident hospitalisation. Another 74,220 (57.8%) patients died within five years of their incident hospitalisation without first having a recurrent hospitalisation for stroke. Comparing incident stroke hospitalisations in 2001 with 1986, the adjusted risk of recurrent stroke hospitalisation decreased by 27%, HR = 0.73 95% CI (0.67 to 0.78), and the adjusted risk of death being the first event decreased by 28%, HR = 0.72 (0.70 to 0.75).

CONCLUSIONS

Over the 15-year period approximately 1 in 10 patients with an incident hospitalisation for stroke in Scotland went on to have a hospitalisation for recurrent stroke within five years. Approximately 6 in 10 patients died within five years without first having a recurrent stroke hospitalisation. Using hospitalisation and death data from an entire country over a 20-year period we have been able to demonstrate not only an improvement in survival following an incident stroke, but also a reduction in the risk of a recurrent event.

Declining 1-year case-fatality of stroke and increasing coverage of vascular risk management: population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

The authors estimated trends in 1-year case-fatality of stroke in relation to changes in vascular risk management from 1997 to 2005.

METHODS

A cohort study was implemented using data for 407 family practices in the UK General Practice Research Database, including subjects with first acute strokes between 1997 and 2005. One-year case-fatality was estimated by year and sex. Rate ratios were estimated using Poisson regression.

RESULTS

There were 19 143 women and 16 552 men who had first acute strokes between 1997 and 2005. In women, the 1-year case-fatality declined from 41.2% in 1997 to 29.2% in 2005. In men, the decline was from 29.2% in 1997 to 22.2% in 2005. The proportion of general practices that prescribed antihypertensive drugs to two-thirds or more of new patients with stroke increased from 6% in 1997 to 48% in 2005, for statins from 1% to 39% and for antiplatelet drugs from 11% to 39%. The rate ratio for 1-year mortality in 2005, compared with 1997-1998, adjusted for age group, sex, prevalent coronary heart disease, prevalent hypertension and deprivation quintile was 0.79 (0.74 to 0.86, p<0.001). After adjustment for antihypertensive, statin and antiplatelet prescribing, the rate ratio was 1.29 (1.17 to 1.42).

CONCLUSIONS

Reducing 1-year case-fatality after acute stroke may be partly explained by increased prescribing of antihypertensive, statin and antiplatelet drugs to patients with recent strokes. However, these analyses did not include measures of possible changes over time in stroke severity or acute stroke management.

Understanding the rapid increase in life expectancy in South Korea

OBJECTIVES

We assessed life expectancy increases in the past several decades in South Korea by age and specific causes of death.

METHODS

We applied Arriaga's decomposition method to life table data (1970-2005) and mortality statistics (1983-2005) to estimate age- and cause-specific contributions to changes in life expectancy.

RESULTS

Reductions in infant mortality made the largest age-group contribution to the life expectancy increase. Reductions in cardiovascular diseases (particularly stroke and hypertensive diseases) contributed most to longer life expectancy between 1983 and 2005 (30% in males and 28% in females). Lower rates of stomach cancer, liver disease, tuberculosis, and external-cause mortality accounted for 30% of the male and 20% of the female increase in longevity. However, higher mortality from ischemic heart disease, lung and bronchial cancer, colorectal cancer, breast cancer, diabetes, and suicide offset gains by 10% in both genders.

CONCLUSIONS

Rapid increases in life expectancy in South Korea were mostly achieved by reductions in infant mortality and in diseases related to infections and blood pressure.

Differences in the association of cardiovascular risk factors with education: a comparison of Costa Rica (CRELES) and the USA (NHANES)

Background

Despite different levels of economic development, Costa Rica and the USA have similar mortalities among adults. However, in the USA there are substantial differences in mortality by educational attainment, and in Costa Rica there are only minor differences. This contrast motivates an examination of behavioural and biological correlates underlying this difference.

Methods

The authors used data on adults aged 60 and above from the Costa Rican Longevity and Healthy Ageing Study (CRELES) (n=2827) and from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (n=5607) to analyse the cross-sectional association between educational level and the following risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD): ever smoked, current smoker, sedentary, high saturated fat, high carbohydrates, high calorie diet, obesity, severe obesity, large waist circumference, HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, triglycerides, hemoglobin A1c, fasting glucose, C-reactive protein, systolic blood pressure and BMI.

Results

There were significantly fewer hazardous levels of risk biomarkers at higher levels of education for more than half (10 out of 17) of the risk factors in the USA, but for less than a third of the outcomes in Costa Rica (five out of 17).

Conclusions

These results are consistent with the context-specific nature of educational differences in risk factors for CVD and with a non-uniform nature of association of CVD risk factors with education within countries. Our results also demonstrate that social equity in mortality is achieved without uniform equity in all risk factors.

Mortality from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Europe and other areas of the world: an update

OBJECTIVE

To update trends in mortality from coronary heart diseases (CHD) and cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) over the period 1981-2004 in Europe, the USA, Latin America, Japan and other selected areas of the world.

METHODS

Age-standardized mortality rates were derived from the World Health Organization database. Joinpoint analysis was used to identify significant changes in trends.

RESULTS

In the European Union (27 countries), CHD mortality in men declined from 139/100,000 in 1985-1989 to 93/100,000 in 2000-2004 (-33%). In women, the fall was from 61/100,000 to 44/100,000 (-27%). In this area, a decline by over 30% was also registered in CVD mortality for both sexes. In the Russian Federation and other countries of the former Soviet Union, CHD rates in 2000-2004 were exceedingly high, around 380/100,000 men and 170/100,000 women in Russia, 430 for men and 240 for women in Ukraine, 420 and 200 in Belarus. For CVD, a similar situation was registered, with mortality rates of 226/100,000 for men and 159/100,000 for women in 2004 in the Russian Federation, and more than 24% increase since the late 1980s for men and 15% for women. CHD and CVD mortality continued to decline in most Latin American countries, Australia and other areas considered, including Asia (even if with marked differences).

CONCLUSION

Although mortality from CHD and CVD continues to decline in several areas of the world including most countries of Europe and of the America providing data and Australia, unfavourable trends were still observed in the Russian Federation and other countries of the former Soviet Union, whose recent rates remain exceedingly high.

Age- and sex-specific trends in fatal incidence and hospitalized incidence of stroke in Scotland, 1986 to 2005

BACKGROUND

Temporal trends in stroke incidence are unclear. We aimed to examine age- and sex-specific temporal trends in incidence of fatal and nonfatal hospitalized stroke in Scotland from 1986 to 2005.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Mean age at the time of first stroke was 70.8 (SD, 12.9) years in men and 76.4 (12.9) years in women. Between 1986 and 2005, rates fell in men from 235 (95% CI, 229 to 242) to 149 (144 to 154) and in women from 299 (292 to 306) to 182 (177 to 188). Poisson modeling showed that temporal trends were influenced by age with declines in incidence of hospitalized stroke starting later in younger than older age groups. In both men and women aged under 55 years, the overall incidence rate of stroke was significantly higher in 2005 than in 1986.

CONCLUSIONS

We report in a whole country that the overall incidence of stroke declined steadily and substantially between 1986 and 2005, with a relative reduction in the risk of stroke of 31% in men and 42% in women. Reductions in rates of both hospitalized and nonhospitalized fatal stroke contributed to this overall decline. The increase in incident stroke rates in young people is of concern.

Sociodemographic variations in the contribution of secondary drug prevention to stroke survival at middle and older ages: cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To determine the extent to which secondary drug prevention for patients with stroke in routine primary care varies by sex, age, and socioeconomic circumstances, and to quantify the effect of secondary drug prevention on one year mortality by sociodemographic group.

DESIGN

Cohort study using individual patient data from the health improvement network primary care database.

SETTING

England.

PARTICIPANTS

12 830 patients aged 50 or more years from 113 general practices who had a stroke between 1995 and 2005 and who survived the first 30 days after the stroke.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Multivariable associations between odds of receiving secondary prevention after a stroke, and sex, age group, and socioeconomic circumstances; hazard ratios for all cause mortality from 31 days after the stroke and within the first year among patients receiving treatment and by social group; and probabilities of one year mortality for social factors of interest and treatment.

RESULTS

Only 25.6% of men and 20.8% of women received secondary prevention. Receipt of secondary prevention did not vary by socioeconomic circumstances or by sex. Older patients were, however, substantially less likely to receive treatment. The adjusted odds ratio for 80-89 year olds compared with 50-59 year olds was 0.53 (95% confidence interval 0.41 to 0.69). This was because older people were less likely to receive lipid lowering drugs-for example, the adjusted odds ratio for 80-89 year olds compared with 50-59 year olds was 0.44 (95% confidence interval 0.33 to 0.59). Secondary prevention was associated with a 50% reduction in mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio 0.50, 95% confidence interval 0.42 to 59). On average, mortality within the first year was 5.7% for patients receiving treatment compared with 11.1% for patients not receiving treatment. There was little evidence that the effect of treatment differed between the social groups examined.

CONCLUSION

Under-treatment among older people with stroke in routine primary care cannot be justified given the lack of evidence on variations in effectiveness of treatment by age.

Radiation to supraclavicular and internal mammary lymph nodes in breast cancer increases the risk of stroke

The aim of this study was to assess whether adjuvant treatment of breast cancer (BC) affects the risk of stroke, and to explore radiation targets and fraction doses regarding risk and location of stroke. In a Swedish BC cohort diagnosed during 1970-2003, we carried out a nested case-control study of stroke after BC, with relevant details extracted from medical records. The odds ratio (OR) for radiotherapy (RT) vs that of no RT did not differ between cases and controls (OR=0.85; confidence interval, CI=0.6-1.3). Radiotherapy to internal mammary chain (IMC) and supraclavicular (SCL) lymph nodes vs that of no RT was associated with a higher, although not statistically significant, risk of stroke (OR=1.3; CI=0.8-2.2). In a pooled analysis, RT to IMC and SCL vs the pooled group of no RT and RT to breast/chest wall/axilla (but not IMC and SCL), showed a significant increase of stroke (OR=1.8; CI=1.1-2.8). There were no associations between cancer laterality, targets of RT, and location of stroke. The radiation targets, IMC and SCL, showed a statistically significant trend for an increased risk of stroke with daily fraction dose. Our finding of a target-specific increased risk of stroke and a dose-response relationship for daily fraction dose, indicate that there may be a causal link between RT to the IMC and SCL and risk of stroke.

Fasting blood glucose and the risk of stroke and myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

Although diabetes is a well-known risk factor of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases, the cardiovascular disease risk of glycemia below the current diabetic threshold remains uncertain.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 652,901 Korean men aged 30 to 64 years from the Korean National Health Insurance System were categorized into 8 groups by fasting blood glucose (FBG) level at baseline and were followed up for cardiovascular diseases occurrence during 1992-2001. Over the follow-up period of 8.8 years, 10,954 stroke and 3766 myocardial infarction events occurred. In age-adjusted analyses, there was evidence of linear associations between FBG and myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, and intracerebral hemorrhagic stroke. However, with additional adjustment for socioeconomic position, behaviors, and other cardiovascular disease risk factors, the associations with myocardial infarction and intracerebral hemorrhagic stroke were markedly attenuated with increased risk only at the highest FBG levels (> or =7.5 mmol/L). With full adjustment, the association with ischemic stroke persisted; a linear increase in the risk of ischemic stroke was observed from FBG level of 5.6 mmol/L. When the analyses were repeated with those persons who had been diagnosed with diabetes removed, there was no evidence of associations of FBG with intracerebral hemorrhagic stroke, but the association with ischemic stroke persisted.

CONCLUSIONS

In this Korean male population, the association with high FBG differed between ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhagic stroke, and myocardial infarction. The linear increase in the risk of ischemic stroke, independently of other cardiovascular risk factors, was observed at a level below the current FBG criteria for impaired fasting glucose (> or =5.6 mmol/L). However, for other cardiovascular diseases, the current cutoff for diagnosing diabetes appropriately identified Korean men at risk.

The Worldwide Challenge of the Dementias: A Role for B Vitamins and Homocysteine?

Dementia has reached epidemic proportions, with an estimated 4.6 million new cases worldwide each year. With an aging world population, the prevalence of dementia will increase dramatically in the next few decades. Of the predicted 114 million who will have dementia in 2050, about three-quarters will live in less developed regions. Although strongly age-related, dementia is not an inevitable part of aging but is a true disease, caused by exposure to several genetic and nongenetic risk factors. Prevention will be possible when the nongenetic risk factors have been identified. Apart from age, more than 20 nongenetic risk factors have been postulated, but very few have been established by randomized intervention studies. Elevated blood concentrations of total homocysteine and low-normal concentrations of B vitamins (folate, vitamin B12, and vitamin B6) are candidate risk factors for both Alzheimer's disease and vascular dementia. Seventy-seven cross-sectional studies on more than 34,000 subjects and 33 prospective studies on more than 12,000 subjects have shown associations between cognitive deficit or dementia and homocysteine and/or B vitamins. Biologically plausible mechanisms have been proposed to account for these associations, including atrophy of the cerebral cortex, but a definite causal pathway has yet to be shown. Raised plasma total homocysteine is a strong prognostic marker of future cognitive decline, and is common in world populations. Low-normal concentrations of the B vitamins, the main determinant of homocysteine concentrations, are also common and occur in particularly vulnerable sections of the population, such as infants and elderly. Large-scale randomized trials of homocysteine-lowering vitamins are needed to see if a proportion of dementia in the world can be prevented.