Envisioning environmental equity: climate change, health, and racial justice

Policy approaches to decarbonising the transport sector in Aotearoa New Zealand: modelling equity, population health, and health-system effects

BACKGROUND

Health co-benefits are a key potential advantage of transport decarbonisation policy. However, health effects will occur in the context of existing transport-health inequities and decarbonisation policies will themselves affect inequities. This research examines the effects of national decarbonisation pathways for transport on population health, health inequity, and health-system costs in Aotearoa New Zealand.

METHODS

We modelled the health, health-system, and environmental impacts of two pathways to net zero for transport developed by the New Zealand Climate Change Commission using a proportional multistate lifetable model. The behaviour pathway emphasises a mixed approach, including reduced driving, increased cycling and use of public transport, and light vehicle electrification, and the technology pathway focuses on vehicle electrification. We used data from transport, environmental, population health, and health-care sources to populate the model. We simulated changes in health effects through the pathways of physical activity, air pollution (PM2·5 and NO2), and injury for the Aotearoa New Zealand population from 2018 to 2050. We modelled impacts for Māori (the Indigenous People of Aotearoa) and non-Māori. For each pathway to net zero, we calculated changes in overall health-adjusted life-years (HALYs), age-standardised HALYs, and rate ratios for Māori and non-Māori. We also calculated changes in health-system costs and transport greenhouse gas emissions. 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UIs) were derived for all model outputs by use of a Monte Carlo simulation.

FINDINGS

Both pathways show improvements in population health, reductions in health-system costs, and reduced lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions compared with baseline, although health gains were substantially larger in the behaviour pathway. For example, an extra 2100 HALYs (95% UI 1500-3100) were gained in the behaviour scenario compared with baseline. Health gains were 20-30% larger for Māori than non-Māori in both pathways, although more HALYs were gained by Māori in the behaviour pathway. For the cohort aged 0-4 years in 2018, healthy life expectancy differences between Māori and non-Māori reduced by 0·5% in the behaviour pathway over their lifetime. HALYs gained by Māori and non-Māori were altered substantially depending on assumptions about the equity of the implemented pathway.

INTERPRETATION

Decarbonising transport might improve overall population health, save the health system money, and reduce health inequities between Māori and non-Māori. Pathways that increase physical activity have a larger effect on population health than those that rely on low-emission vehicles. The effects on inequity between Māori and non-Māori are larger in the behaviour pathway than in the technology pathway but dependent on how equitably policies supporting decarbonisation are implemented.

FUNDING

Health Research Council of New Zealand and University of Otago.

Extreme temperatures, PM2.5 and trajectories of impaired thyroid hormone sensitivity: A longitudinal study of patients with schizophrenia

BACKGROUND

The climate change scenario has witnessed an increase in extreme temperature events (ETEs), including heat waves and cold spells, and a heightened occurrence of compounding with fine particulate matter (PM2.5). However, the impact of this phenomenon on the sensitivity to thyroid hormones (THs) in humans is unclear, especially in a group as specific as schizophrenia.

METHODS

A longitudinal study was constructed using longitudinal measurements of thyroid function in schizophrenia in the Anhui Mental Health Center. The latent growth mixture model was applied to assess the optimal trajectory of change in impaired THs sensitivity. We then used logistic regression to explore associations between heat waves, cold spells, and PM2.5 with impaired THs sensitivity trajectories in the total population and different gender and age subgroups. Furthermore, the effect of the frequency, intensity, and duration of ETEs in the above associations was explored, as well as an assessment of the interaction between ETEs and PM2.5.

RESULTS

Among 931 participants, we identified two classifications of trajectories of impaired THs sensitivity: "Low-stable" (n = 836, 89.80 %) and "Rise-slight down" (n = 95, 10.20 %). Logistic regression showed significant associations between each additional day of heat waves (≥3 days with temperature thresholds above the 95th percentile) and cold spells (≥3 days with temperature thresholds below the 5th percentile) and "Rise-slight down" trajectory, with odds ratios (95 % confidence intervals) of 1.06 (1.02, 1.10) and 1.19 (1.14, 1.24), respectively, and the strength of this association increased with the intensity and duration of ETEs. Subgroup analyses indicated that the association was more pronounced in males and the age group above 40 years. Furthermore, PM2.5 was found to interact with heat waves, with high concentrations exacerbating the effects of heat waves.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that mitigating both ETEs and PM2.5 exposures may bring health co-benefits in preventing thyroid impairment in schizophrenia.

Canadian Association of Radiologists Statement on Environmental Sustainability in Medical Imaging

Immediate and strategic action is needed to improve environmental sustainability and reduce the detrimental effects of climate change. Climate change is already adversely affecting the health of Canadians related to worsening air pollution and wildfire smoke, increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, and expansion of vector-borne and infectious illnesses. On one hand, radiology contributes to the climate crisis by generating greenhouse gas emissions and waste during the production, manufacture, transportation, and use of medical imaging equipment and supplies. On the other hand, radiology departments are also susceptible to equipment and infrastructure damage from flooding, extreme temperatures, and power failures, as well as workforce shortages due to injury and illness, potentially disrupting radiology services and increasing costs. The Canadian Association of Radiologists' (CAR) advocacy for environmentally sustainable radiology in Canada encompasses both minimizing the detrimental effects that delivery of radiology services has on the environment and optimizing the resilience of radiology departments to increasing health needs and changing patterns of disease on imaging related to climate change. This statement provides specific recommendations and pathways to help guide radiologists, medical imaging leadership teams, industry partners, governments, and other key stakeholders to transition to environmentally sustainable, net-zero, and climate-resilient radiology organizations. Specific consideration is given to unique aspects of medical imaging in Canada. Finally, environmentally sustainable radiology programs, policies, and achievements in Canada are highlighted.

Reducing air pollution does not necessarily reduce related adults' mortality burden: Variations in 177 countries with different economic levels

Prolonged exposure to PM2.5 is associated with increased mortality. However, reducing air pollution concentrations does not necessarily reduce the related burden of deaths. Here, we aim to estimate the variations in PM2.5-related mortality due to contributions from key factors - PM2.5 concentration, population exposure, and healthcare levels - for 177 countries from 2000 to 2018 at the 1-km grid scale according to the Global Mortality Exposure Model (GEMM) model. We find that global reductions in PM2.5-related deaths mainly come from high and upper-middle income countries, where lowered air pollutant concentration and better healthcare can offset mortality burdens caused by increasing exposed populations. Changes in population exposure to PM2.5 contribute the most (54 %) to change in global related deaths over the examined period, followed by changes in healthcare (-42 %) and pollution concentrations (4 %). The impacts vary across countries and regions within them due to other drivers, which are significantly influenced by development status. Policies aiming at reducing PM2.5 associated health risks need to account for country-specific balances of these key socioeconomic drivers.

Mapping the Environmental Co-Benefits of Reducing Low-Value Care: A Scoping Review and Bibliometric Analysis

Reducing low-value care (LVC) and improving healthcare's climate readiness are critical factors for improving the sustainability of health systems. Care practices that have been deemed low or no-value generate carbon emissions, waste and pollution without improving patient or population health. There is nascent, but growing, research and evaluation to inform practice change focused on the environmental co-benefits of reducing LVC. The objective of this study was to develop foundational knowledge of this field through a scoping review and bibliometric analysis. We searched four databases, Medline, Embase, Scopus and CINAHL, and followed established scoping review and bibliometric analysis methodology to collect and analyze the data. A total of 145 publications met the inclusion criteria and were published between 2013 and July 2023, with over 80% published since 2020. Empirical studies comprised 21%, while commentary or opinions comprised 51% of publications. The majority focused on healthcare generally (27%), laboratory testing (14%), and medications (14%). Empirical publications covered a broad range of environmental issues with general and practice-specific 'Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions', 'waste management' and 'resource use' as most common topics. Reducing practice-specific 'GHG emissions' was the most commonly reported environmental outcome. The bibliometric analysis revealed nine international collaboration networks producing work on eight key healthcare areas. The nineteen 'top' authors were primarily from the US, Australia and Canada.

A rural teledentistry care experience: a geriatric approach to assessing oral health status and treatment needs in older adults from a Mapuche community in Chile

Background

Limited attention has been given to oral health challenges faced by older Indigenous populations, especially in rural settings, where disparities exist. This study aims to assess oral health in a rural Mapuche community in southern Chile, utilizing geriatric technology support, and exploring the connection between geriatric health and oral well-being to fill a gap in this context.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted involving 76 independent older adults from a rural Mapuche community who required dental care. Assessments were in a remote care setting gathering extensive data including comprehensive geriatric assessments, medical and dental conditions using a geriatric teledentistry platform (TEGO®). Statistical analysis involved descriptive analysis, logistic regression, and both multiple correspondence analysis and k-means cluster analysis.

Results

The sample comprised individuals with limited formal education and a high degree of vulnerability. Geriatric assessments unveiled cognitive deterioration, frailty, depression risk, and multimorbidity. A distribution of the DMFT index, number of remaining teeth, number of occluding pairs, number of teeth with restorative needs and other relevant clinical findings was conducted based on sociodemographic, and medical-geriatric-dental characteristics, and additionally, a Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis of Dentition Variables in Relation to Geriatric Assessments was performed. The dental burden was substantial, with an average DMFT index of 25.96 (SD 4.38), high prevalence of non-functional dentition (89.3%), periodontal disease (83%), xerostomia (63.2%) and oral mucosal lesions (31.5%). Age, lower education, depression, daily medication number and sugary consumption frequency were associated with a decreased average number of teeth (p < 0.05). Multiple correspondence analysis and k-means cluster analysis identified 4 clusters, with the edentulous and functional dentition groups being the most distinct.

Conclusion

This study uncovers a substantial dental burden and intricate medical-geriatric conditions interlinked among Indigenous older adults in a rural Chilean Mapuche community. The implementation of a geriatric technological ecosystem in the community enabled the resolution of less complex oral health issues and facilitated remote consultations with specialists, reducing the necessity for travel to health centers. This underscores the need for innovative dental public health initiatives to address health disparities and improve the overall well-being of older Indigenous adults.

What would it really take to solve the overdose epidemic in the United States?

The high overdose mortality rates in the United States poses several questions: Why have they been increasing exponentially since 1979? Why are they so high? And how can they be greatly reduced? Building on past research, the causes of the increase seem to be deeply rooted in US social and economic structures and processes, rather than due only to opioid prescription patterns or the advent of synthetic opioids. Given this, we consider what changes might be needed to reverse the exponentially-increasing overdose mortality. We use a path dependency argument to argue that the United States political, economic, and public health systems have helped create this crisis and, unfortunately, continue to heighten it. These same systems suggest that proposals to expand harm reduction and drug treatment capacity, to decriminalize or legalize drugs, or to re-industrialize the country sufficiently to reduce "communities of despair" will not be enacted at a scale sufficient to end the overdose crisis. We thus suggest that in the United States serious improvements in overdose rates and related policies and structures require massive social movements with a broad social change agenda.

Increased urban greenspace in childhood associated with lower inattention deficit among adolescents

PURPOSE

There is a growing interest in assessing the benefits of exposure to urban greenspace on mental health due to the increased urbanization of youth and concerns for their mental health. We investigated the prospective associations of residential greenspace in childhood and mental health in adolescence. Use of a well-characterized birth cohort permitted adjustment for a range of potential confounding factors including family and neighborhood characteristics in addition to prior mental health problems, and exploration of moderation effects by sex and family socioeconomic status.

METHODS

We analyzed longitudinal data collected from 742 urban-dwelling participants of the Quebec Longitudinal Study of Children Development. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) within 250, 500, and 1000 m buffer zones surrounding the home residence was used to indicate childhood exposure to greenspace. Six self-reported mental health problems at 15/17 years were examined using the Mental Health and Social Inadaptation questionnaire: inattention, hyperactivity/impulsivity, conduct, depression, anxiety, and suicidal ideation.

RESULTS

Childhood urban greenspace was associated with lower inattention problems in both females and males. We observed a 0.14 reduced standard deviation (SD) (β = - 0.14, SE = 0.05, p < 0.01) in relation to an interquartile range (IQR) increase of NDVI (0.15) at the 250 m buffer zone, and similar results were found in 500 m and 1000 m buffer zones. These associations only slightly attenuated after adjustment for individual (sex, childhood mental health), family (family SES, maternal age at birth, parental mental health, family composition), and neighborhood (material and social deprivation) characteristics (β = - 0.13, SE = 0.06, p = 0.03). No association was found for other mental health problems, and no moderation associations of sex or family socioeconomic status were observed.

CONCLUSION

 These findings suggest that increasing residential greenspace in cities may be associated with modest benefits in attentional capacities in youth, necessitating further research to elucidate the underlying mechanisms.

Environmental-, Climate-, and Health-Related Dietary Motivations Are Associated With Higher Diet Quality in a National Sample of US Adults With Lower Incomes

BACKGROUND

Plant-based diets can have co-benefits for human and planetary health. Associations between environmental, climate, and health concerns and dietary intake in US adults are understudied, particularly in underserved populations.

OBJECTIVE

The study objectives were to assess how dietary choices motivated by the environment, climate, and health vary by sociodemographic characteristics and how they relate to diet quality and intake frequency of different food groups in US adults with lower incomes.

DESIGN

The study design was cross-sectional.

PARTICIPANTS/SETTING

A web-based survey was fielded in December 2022 to 1,798 US adults with lower incomes (<250% of federal poverty guidelines).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Environmental-, climate-, and health-related dietary motivations and diet quality and dietary food group intake frequency were assessed.

STATISTICAL ANALYSES

Differences in mean dietary outcomes and dietary motivation ratings by sociodemographic characteristics were evaluated using analysis of variance and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Associations between dietary motivations and diet quality scores and dietary intake frequency were examined using generalized linear models adjusted for sociodemographic covariates.

RESULTS

Younger adults, women, nonbinary people, racial and ethnic minoritized groups, and adults experiencing food insecurity reported higher environmental and climate dietary motivations; older adults, higher-income adults, and food-secure adults reported higher health motivations. Agreeing with environmental- (β = 2.28, 95% CI 1.09 to 3.47), climate- (β = 2.15, 95% CI 0.90 to 3.40), and health-related (β = 5.27, 95% CI 3.98 to 6.56) dietary motivations was associated with higher diet quality scores compared with those with neutral rankings. Similarly, agreement with environmental-, climate-, and health-related dietary motivations was associated with higher intake frequency of fish, fruits and vegetables, and plant proteins, but not with red and processed meat intake frequency. Of several climate-mitigation behaviors presented, participants perceived meat reduction as least effective (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Environment, climate, and health were positive motivators of several healthy dietary choices in US adults with lower incomes. Such motivators did not translate to lower intake frequency of red and processed meat.

How can open public data promote efficient and equitable green production? Evidence from eco-efficiency in China

Nowadays, concurrent attention to economic development and ecological issues is becoming an important trend. In this paper, we measure the eco-efficiency of 285 Chinese cities from 2003 to 2019 using a non-radial directional distance function and the data envelopment analysis method, based on which we analyze the club convergence of cities' eco-efficiency using the logt test; we estimate the impact of open public data platforms on eco-efficiency and its convergence using a multi-period difference in difference model and panel-ordered logit model, respectively. We find that, first, open public data platforms improve cities' eco-efficiency by about 6.5%, and the impact mechanisms include scale efficiency, technical efficiency, and total factor productivity, or, at the micro level, increasing the economic agglomeration degree, boosting the amount of foreign investment used, and increasing green innovation level. Second, there are three convergence clubs of eco-efficiency in China's cities, whose average eco-efficiency trends are above, close to, and below average, respectively. Third, public data platforms significantly increase the probability of cities belonging to the convergence clubs of high and medium eco-efficiency (Clubs 1 and 2) and decrease the probability of belonging to the low one (Club 3). However, the mechanisms only include technical efficiency and total factor productivity, or the amount of foreign investment used and the green innovation level at the micro level.

Advancing disability-inclusive climate research and action, climate justice, and climate-resilient development

Globally, more than 1 billion people with disabilities are disproportionately and differentially at risk from the climate crisis. Yet there is a notable absence of climate policy, programming, and research at the intersection of disability and climate change. Advancing climate justice urgently requires accelerated disability-inclusive climate action. We present pivotal research recommendations and guidance to advance disability-inclusive climate research and responses identified by a global interdisciplinary group of experts in disability, climate change, sustainable development, public health, environmental justice, humanitarianism, gender, Indigeneity, mental health, law, and planetary health. Climate-resilient development is a framework for enabling universal sustainable development. Advancing inclusive climate-resilient development requires a disability human rights approach that deepens understanding of how societal choices and actions-characterised by meaningful participation, inclusion, knowledge diversity in decision making, and co-design by and with people with disabilities and their representative organisations-build collective climate resilience benefiting disability communities and society at large while advancing planetary health.

Climate and environmental changes exacerbate health disparities in pregnant people and their offspring. How can we protect women and their babies?

BACKGROUND

The effects of climate and environmental changes (CEC) are being felt globally and will worsen over the next decade unless significant changes are made on a global level. Climate change is having serious consequences for health, particularly for vulnerable women and their offspring and less resilient individuals in communities with socioeconomic inequalities. To protect human health from CEC effects, efforts need to be directed toward building resilience strategies. Building political and economic power, as well as directly addressing CEC-related challenges, are critical components of climate resilience. Effective communication and tailored methods to engage women in preventive strategies are also necessary to ameliorate the deleterious effects of CEC on women's health. Furthermore, women from marginalized communities face more CEC-associated challenges.

CONCLUSIONS

Therefore, effective policies and programs targeting these at-risk populations-are crucial to improve the overall state of global health. In closing, it is time to increase awareness of the effects of CECs on women's health and their transgenerational effects in order to ensure that all people, regardless of race, ethnicity, education and income are protected from the detrimental effects of CECs.

Toward a Social Bioethics Through Interpretivism: A Framework for Healthcare Ethics

Recent global events demonstrate that analytical frameworks to aid professionals in healthcare ethics must consider the pervasive role of social structures in the emergence of bioethical issues. To address this, the authors propose a new sociologically informed approach to healthcare ethics that they term "social bioethics." Their approach is animated by the interpretive social sciences to highlight how social structures operate vis-à-vis the everyday practices and moral reasoning of individuals, a phenomenon known as social discourse. As an exemplar, the authors use social bioethics to reframe common ethical issues in psychiatric services and discuss potential implications. Lastly, the authors discuss how social bioethics illuminates the ways healthcare ethics consultants in both policy and clinical decision-making participate in and shape broader social, political, and economic systems, which then cyclically informs the design and delivery of healthcare.

Elucidating Best Geospatial Estimation Method Applied to Environmental Sciences

The aim of this study is to assess and identify the most suitable geospatial interpolation algorithm for environmental sciences. The research focuses on evaluating six different interpolation methods using annual average PM10 concentrations as a reference dataset. The dataset includes measurements obtained from a target air quality network (scenery 1) and a sub-dataset derived from a partitive clustering technique (scenery 2). By comparing the performance of each interpolation algorithm using various indicators, the study aims to determine the most reliable method. The findings reveal that the kriging method demonstrates the highest performance within environmental sciences, with a spatial similarity of approximately 70% between the two scenery datasets. The performance indicators for the kriging method, including RMSE (root mean square error), MAE (mean absolute error), and MAPE (mean absolute percentage error), are measured at 3.2 µg/m3, 10.2 µg/m3, and 7.3%, respectively.This study addresses the existing gap in scientific knowledge regarding the comparison of geospatial interpolation techniques. The findings provide valuable insights for environmental managers and decision-makers, enabling them to implement effective control and mitigation strategies based on reliable geospatial information and data. In summary, this research evaluates and identifies the most suitable geospatial interpolation algorithm for environmental sciences, with the kriging method emerging as the most reliable option. The study's findings contribute to the advancement of knowledge in the field and offer practical implications for environmental management and planning.

Projection of high temperature-related burden of kidney disease in Australia under different climate change, population and adaptation scenarios: population-based study

Background

The dual impacts of a warming climate and population ageing lead to an increasing kidney disease prevalence, highlighting the importance of quantifying the burden of kidney disease (BoKD) attributable to high temperature, yet studies on this subject are limited. The study aims to quantify the BoKD attributable to high temperatures in Australia across all states and territories, and project future BoKD under climatic, population and adaptation scenarios.

Methods

Data on disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs) due to kidney disease, including years of life lost (YLL), and years lived with disability (YLD), were collected during 2003-2018 (baseline) across all states and territories in Australia. The temperature-response association was estimated using a meta-regression model. Future temperature projections were calculated using eight downscaled climate models to estimate changes in attributable BoKD centred around 2030s and 2050s, under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), while considering changes in population size and age structure, and human adaptation to climate change.

Findings

Over the baseline (2003-2018), high-temperature contributed to 2.7% (Standard Deviation: 0.4%) of the observed BoKD in Australia. The future population attributable fraction and the attributable BoKD, projected using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, showed a gradually increasing trend when assuming no human adaptation. Future projections were most strongly influenced by the population change, with the high temperature-related BoKD increasing by 18.4-67.4% compared to the baseline under constant population and by 100.2-291.2% when accounting for changes in population size and age structure. However, when human adaptation was adopted (from no to partial to full), the high temperature-related BoKD became smaller.

Interpretation

It is expected that increasing high temperature exposure will substantially contribute to higher BoKD across Australia, underscoring the urgent need for public health interventions to mitigate the negative health impacts of a warming climate on BoKD.

Funding

Australian Research Council Discovery Program.

Mental Health in a Changing Planet

This Viewpoint discusses climate change and its effect on mental health.

The heart of Detroit study: a window into urban middle-aged and older African Americans' daily lives to understand psychosocial determinants of cardiovascular disease risk

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease disproportionately affects African Americans. Psychosocial factors, including the experience of and emotional reactivity to racism and interpersonal stressors, contribute to the etiology and progression of cardiovascular disease through effects on health behaviors, stress-responsive neuroendocrine axes, and immune processes. The full pathway and complexities of these associations remain underexamined in African Americans. The Heart of Detroit Study aims to identify and model the biopsychosocial pathways that influence cardiovascular disease risk in a sample of urban middle-aged and older African American adults.

METHODS

The proposed sample will be composed of 500 African American adults between the ages of 55 and 75 from the Detroit urban area. This longitudinal study will consist of two waves of data collection, two years apart. Biomarkers of stress, inflammation, and cardiovascular surrogate endpoints (i.e., heart rate variability and blood pressure) will be collected at each wave. Ecological momentary assessments will characterize momentary and daily experiences of stress, affect, and health behaviors during the first wave. A proposed subsample of 60 individuals will also complete an in-depth qualitative interview to contextualize quantitative results. The central hypothesis of this project is that interpersonal stressors predict poor cardiovascular outcomes, cumulative physiological stress, poor sleep, and inflammation by altering daily affect, daily health behaviors, and daily physiological stress.

DISCUSSION

This study will provide insight into the biopsychosocial pathways through which experiences of stress and discrimination increase cardiovascular disease risk over micro and macro time scales among urban African American adults. Its discoveries will guide the design of future contextualized, time-sensitive, and culturally tailored behavioral interventions to reduce racial disparities in cardiovascular disease risk.

Indigenous Peoples: Traditional knowledges, climate change, and health

Indigenous Peoples around the globe make up approximately six percent of the global population, yet they sustainably care for around eighty percent of the world's remaining biodiversity. Despite continued political, economic, and racial marginalization, as well as some of the worst health inequities on the planet, Indigenous Peoples have worked hard to maintain their cultures and languages against all odds. Indigenous Peoples' close connections to land, water, and ecosystems, however, have placed them at increasing vulnerability from the effects of climate change. With this, the health risks from climate change have unique considerations within Indigenous Nations for both mitigation and adaptation responses that are largely unappreciated. This Indigenous narrative review will synthesis the current climate and health landscape of Indigenous Peoples at a global, high-level scale, including relevant international mechanisms and considerations for Indigenous Peoples' health. This Indigenous narrative review will also explore and reflect on the strengths of Indigenous traditional knowledges as it pertains to climate change and health.

Health-care systems' resource footprints and their access and quality in 49 regions between 1995 and 2015: an input-output analysis

BACKGROUND

Strategies to reduce the environmental impact of health care are often limited to greenhouse gas emissions. To broaden their scope, our aim was to determine the evolution of the resource footprints, dependency, and efficiency of health-care systems and to determine the relationship between this evolution and their Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) index.

METHODS

We carried out an input-output analysis of 49 health-care systems from 1995 to 2015. We harmonised the EXIOBASE v3.8.2 database-providing data for 49 world regions-to the World Health Organization Health Expenditures Database. We then performed a panel data analysis to understand the relationship between Healthcare Access and Quality index and energy footprint per capita of health-care systems. EXIOBASE3 does not provide measurement errors so it was not possible to propagate the uncertainties as can be done with other input-output databases.

FINDINGS

Health-care systems' footprint increased over the past two decades, reaching 7% of global non-metallic minerals footprint, 4% of global metal ores footprint, and 5% of global fossil fuels footprint in 2013. This increase was mostly due to China, rising from 7% of the non-metallic minerals footprint in 1995 to 45% in 2013. 80% of the health-care systems studied were dependent at more than 50% on fossil fuel imports. The energy footprint per capita was correlated exponentially with the HAQ index but some countries performed much better than others at a given energy footprint. Health-care systems have not become more efficient between 2002 and 2015.

INTERPRETATION

Health-care systems' resources footprint are exponentially linked to their HAQ. Both prevention and efficiency measures will be needed to change this relationship. If it is not enough, high-income countries will have to choose between further reducing the resource consumption of their health-care systems or shifting the efforts to other sectors, health being considered an incompressible need. We call for the creation of a HAQE (health-care access, quality, and efficiency) index that would add resource efficiency to access and quality when ranking health-care systems.

FUNDING

The Shift Project.