Predicting one-year mortality among elderly survivors of hospitalization for an acute myocardial infarction: results from the Cooperative Cardiovascular Project

Association of Body Mass Index with Long-Term All-Cause Mortality in Patients Who Had Undergone a Vertebroplasty for a Vertebral Compression Fracture

We aimed to investigate the association between preoperative body mass index (BMI) and postoperative long-term mortality in patients who underwent a vertebroplasty. We retrospectively enrolled patients with a vertebral compression fracture who underwent a vertebroplasty between May 2013 and June 2020 in a medical center in Taiwan. The survival status of the study sample was confirmed by the end of March 2021. Cox-proportional hazard models were conducted to examine the effects of being overweight/obese (≥25 kg/m2 vs. <25 kg/m2) and BMI (as a continuous variable) on all-cause mortality after adjusting for age, sex, history of smoking, diabetes, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, and osteoporosis. A total of 164 patients were analyzed (mean age 75.8 ± 9.3 years, male 25.6%, mean BMI 24.0 ± 4.1 kg/m2) after a median follow-up of 785 days. Compared with a BMI < 25 kg/m2, a BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 was associated with a significantly lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR 0.297, 95% CI 0.101 to 0.878, p = 0.028). These findings were consistent when BMI was examined as a continuous variable (HR 0.874, 95% CI 0.773 to 0.988, p = 0.031). A low BMI (<22 kg/m2) should be considered as a risk factor for postoperative long-term mortality in this ageing population.

Clinical Nomogram to Predict Major Adverse Cardiac Events in Acute Myocardial Infarction Patients within 1 Year of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

The purpose of this study was to summarize the clinical characteristics and risk factors of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in patients who had had acute myocardial infarction (AMI) within 1 year of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). A total of 421 AMI patients who were treated with PCI and experienced MACEs within 1 year of their admission were included in this retrospective study. In addition, patients were matched for age, sex, and presentation with 561 patients after AMI who had not had MACEs. The clinical characteristics and risk factors for MACEs within 1 year in AMI patients were investigated, to develop a nomogram for MACEs based on univariate and multivariate analyses. The C statistic was used to assess the discriminative performance of the nomogram. In addition, calibration curve and decision curve analyses were conducted to validate the calibration performance and utility, respectively, of the nomogram. After univariate and multivariate analyses, a nomogram was constructed based on age (odds ratio (OR): 1.030; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.014–1.047), diabetes mellitus (OR: 1.667; 95% CI: 1.151–2.415), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (OR: 1.332; 95% CI: 1.134–1.565), uric acid (OR: 1.003; 95% CI: 1.001–1.005), lipoprotein (a) (OR: 1.003; 95% CI: 1.002–1.003), left ventricular ejection fraction (OR: 0.929; 95% CI: 0.905–0.954), Syntax score (OR: 1.075; 95% CI: 1.053–1.097), and hypersensitive troponin T (OR: 1.002; 95% CI: 1.002–1.003). The C statistic was 0.814. The calibration curve showed good concordance of the nomogram, while decision curve analysis demonstrated satisfactory positive net benefits. We developed a convenient, practical, and effective prediction model for predicting MACEs in AMI patients within 1 year of PCI. To ensure generalizability, this model requires external validation.

Assessment of Selected Baseline and Post-PCI Electrocardiographic Parameters as Predictors of Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction after a First ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

OBJECTIVE

To assess the performance of ten electrocardiographic (ECG) parameters regarding the prediction of left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD) after a first ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).

METHODS

We analyzed 249 patients (74.7% males) treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) included into a single-center cohort study. We sought associations between baseline and post-PCI ECG parameters and the presence of LVSD (defined as left ventricular ejection fraction [LVEF] ≤ 40% on echocardiography) 6 months after STEMI.

RESULTS

Patients presenting with LVSD (n = 52) had significantly higher values of heart rate, number of leads with ST-segment elevation and pathological Q-waves, as well as total and maximal ST-segment elevation at baseline and directly after PCI compared with patients without LVSD. They also showed a significantly higher prevalence of anterior STEMI and considerably wider QRS complex after PCI, while QRS duration measurement at baseline showed no significant difference. Additionally, patients presenting with LVSD after 6 months showed markedly more severe ischemia on admission, as assessed with the Sclarovsky-Birnbaum ischemia score, smaller reciprocal ST-segment depression at baseline and less profound ST-segment resolution post PCI. In multivariate regression analysis adjusted for demographic, clinical, biochemical and angiographic variables, anterior location of STEMI (OR 17.78; 95% CI 6.45-48.96; p < 0.001), post-PCI QRS duration (OR 1.56; 95% CI 1.22-2.00; p < 0.001) expressed per increments of 10 ms and impaired post-PCI flow in the infarct-related artery (IRA; TIMI 3 vs. <3; OR 0.14; 95% CI 0.04-0.46; p = 0.001) were identified as independent predictors of LVSD (Nagelkerke's pseudo R2 for the logistic regression model = 0.462). Similarly, in multiple regression analysis, anterior location of STEMI, wider post-PCI QRS, higher baseline number of pathological Q-waves and a higher baseline Sclarovsky-Birnbaum ischemia score, together with impaired post-PCI flow in the IRA, higher values of body mass index and glucose concentration on admission were independently associated with lower values of LVEF at 6 months (corrected R2 = 0.448; p < 0.00001).

CONCLUSIONS

According to our study, baseline and post-PCI ECG parameters are of modest value for the prediction of LVSD occurrence 6 months after a first STEMI.

Presentation, Treatment, and Outcomes of Older Adults Hospitalized for Acute Myocardial Infarction According to Cognitive Status: The SILVER-AMI Study

BACKGROUND

While survival after acute myocardial infarction has improved substantially, older adults remain at heightened risk for hospital readmissions and death. Evidence for the role of cognitive impairment in older myocardial infarction survivors' risk for these outcomes is limited.

METHODS

3041 patients aged ≥75 years hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction (mean age 82 ± 5 years, 56% male) recruited from 94 US hospitals. Cognition was assessed using the Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status; scores of <27 and <22 indicated mild and moderate/severe impairment, respectively. Readmissions and death at 6 months post-discharge were ascertained via participant report and medical record review. Associations between cognition and outcomes were evaluated with multivariable-adjusted logistic regression.

RESULTS

Mild and moderate/severe cognitive impairment were present in 11% and 6% of the cohort, respectively. Readmission and death at 6 months occurred in 41% and 9% of participants, respectively. Mild and moderate/severe cognitive impairment were associated with increased risk of readmission (odds ratio [OR] 1.36; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.08-1.72 and OR 1.58; 95% CI, 1.18-2.12, respectively) and death (OR 2.19; 95% CI, 1.54-3.11 and OR 3.82; 95% CI, 2.63-5.56, respectively) in unadjusted analyses. Significant associations between moderate/severe cognitive impairment and death (OR 1.69; 95% CI, 1.10-2.59) persisted after adjustment for demographics, myocardial infarction characteristics, comorbidity burden, functional status, and depression, but not for readmissions.

CONCLUSIONS

Moderate-to-severe cognitive impairment is associated with heightened risk of death in older acute myocardial infarction patients in the months after hospitalization, but not with readmission. Routine cognitive screening may identify older myocardial infarction survivors at risk for poor outcomes who may benefit from closer oversight and support in the post-discharge period.

A prognostic nomogram for long-term major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with acute coronary syndrome after percutaneous coronary intervention

BACKGROUND

Accurate prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) is very important for the management of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients. We aimed to construct an effective prognostic nomogram for individualized risk estimates of MACEs for patients with ACS after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).

METHODS

This was a prospective study of patients with ACS after PCI from January 2013 to July 2019 (n = 2465). After removing patients with incomplete clinical information, a total of 1986 patients were randomly divided into evaluation (n = 1324) and validation (n = 662) groups. Predictors included in the nomogram were determined by a multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model based on the training set. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves were used to assess the discrimination and predictive accuracy of the nomogram, which were then compared with those of the classic models. The clinical utility of the nomogram was assessed by X-tile analysis and Kaplan-Meier curve analysis.

RESULTS

Independent prognostic factors, including lactate level, age, left anterior descending branch stenosis, right coronary artery stenosis, brain natriuretic peptide level, and left ventricular ejection fraction, were determined and contained in the nomogram. The nomogram achieved good areas under the ROC curve of 0.712-0.762 in the training set and 0.724-0.818 in the validation set and well-fitted calibration curves. In addition, participants could be divided into two risk groups (low and high) according to this model.

CONCLUSIONS

A simple-to-use nomogram incorporating lactate level effectively predicted 6-month, 1-year, and 4-year MACE incidence among patients with ACS after PCI.

Association of severity of coronary artery disease by SYNTAX score (SS) and lower extremity arterial disease by duplex ultrasound (DUS) study-an Indian perspective

Background

Coronary artery disease (CAD) and lower extremity artery disease (LEAD) often coexist. Ankle brachial index (ABI) has been shown to be an independent predictor of CAD. Studies have reported correlation of CAD and LEAD on the basis of ABI and also invasive angiography. But rigorous searching did not reveal any similar research where severity of LEAD was assessed by duplex ultrasound (DUS).

In this study, we assessed the association of severity and localisation of LEAD by DUS with SYNTAX score (SS).

Results

A total of 637 subjects above 45 years of age with coronary angiographic confirmation of CAD were studied in this single centre cross-sectional, descriptive and analytical research. High SS was significantly more common in subjects with LEAD (p = 0.04). In the femoro-popliteal segment, total occlusion of arteries was found in significantly more proportion of subjects with high SS. A progressive increase in mean SS was noted across the grades of arterial disease in the femoro-popliteal segment (p = 0.007). 85.2% of the LEAD was in the femoro-popliteal segment, while below-knee arterial disease was present in 98.5% of subjects with LEAD. Hypertension, smoking, history of CVE and presentation with ACS independently increased the risk of LEAD.

Conclusion

High prevalence of asymptomatic LEAD and association of high SS with LEAD as a whole as well as femoro-popliteal involvement suggests the need for a point of care DUS study (POCUS) since treatment varies with location and extent of disease which cannot be fathomed by ABI alone. Being the largest study on association of CAD and LEAD from Indian subcontinent till date and also the first study to use non-invasive tool as DUS for LEAD assessment while studying its association with CAD makes this a landmark experience.

Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment in the Management of Older Patients With Cardiovascular Disease

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) disproportionately affects older adults. It is expected that by 2030, one in five people in the United States will be older than 65 years. Individuals with CVD now live longer due, in part, to current prevention and treatment approaches. Addressing the needs of older individuals requires inclusion and assessment of frailty, multimorbidity, depression, quality of life, and cognition. Despite the conceptual relevance and prognostic importance of these factors, they are seldom formally evaluated in clinical practice. Further, although these constructs coexist with traditional cardiovascular risk factors, their exact prevalence and prognostic impact remain largely unknown. Development of the right decision tools, which include these variables, can facilitate patient-centered care for older adults. These gaps in knowledge hinder optimal care use and underscore the need to rigorously evaluate the optimal constructs for providing care to older adults. In this review, we describe available tools to examine the prognostic role of age-related factors in patients with CVD.

Association Between Inpatient Echocardiography Use and Outcomes in Adult Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction

IMPORTANCE

Guidelines recommend that patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) undergo echocardiography for assessment of cardiac structure and ejection fraction, but little is known about the association between echocardiography as used in routine clinical management of AMI and patient outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between risk-standardized hospital rates of transthoracic echocardiography and outcomes.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This retrospective cohort study of data from 397 US hospitals that contributed to the Premier Healthcare Informatics inpatient database from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2014, used International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) codes to identify 98 999 hospital admissions for patients with AMI. Data were analyzed between October 2017 and January 2019.

EXPOSURES

Rates of transthoracic echocardiography.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Inpatient mortality, length of stay, total inpatient costs, and 3-month readmission rate.

RESULTS

Among the 397 hospitals with more than 25 admissions for AMI in 2014, a total of 98 999 hospital admissions for AMI were identified for analysis (38.2% women; mean [SD] age, 66.5 [13.6] years), of which 69 652 (70.4%) had at least 1 transthoracic echocardiogram performed. The median (IQR) hospital risk-standardized rate of echocardiography was 72.5% (62.6%-79.1%). In models that adjusted for hospital and patient characteristics, no difference was found in inpatient mortality (odds ratio [OR], 1.02; 95% CI, 0.88-1.19) or 3-month readmission (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.93-1.10) between the highest and lowest quartiles of echocardiography use (median risk-standardized echocardiography use rates of 83% vs 54%, respectively). However, hospitals with the highest rates of echocardiography had modestly longer mean lengths of stay (0.23 days; 95% CI, 0.04-0.41; P = .01) and higher mean costs ($3164; 95% CI, $1843-$4485; P < .001) per admission compared with hospitals in the lowest quartile of use. Multiple sensitivity analyses yielded similar results.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In patients with AMI, hospitals in the quartile with the highest rates of echocardiography showed greater hospital costs and length of stay but few differences in clinical outcomes compared with hospitals in the quartile with the lowest rates of echocardiography. These findings suggest that more selective use of echocardiography might be used without adversely affecting clinical outcomes, particularly in hospitals with high rates of echocardiography use.

Comorbidity assessment for mortality risk stratification in elderly patients with acute coronary syndrome

BACKGROUND

The Charlson's is the most used comorbidity index. It comprises 19 comorbidities, some of which are infrequent in elderly patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS), while some others are manifestations of cardiac disease rather than comorbidities. Our goal was to simplify comorbidity assessment in elderly non-ST-segment elevation ACS patients.

METHODS

The study group consisted of 1 training (n = 920, 76 ± 7 years) and 1 testing (n = 532; 84 ± 4 years) cohorts. The end-point was all-cause mortality at 1-year follow-up. Comorbidities were assessed selecting those medical disorders other than cardiac disease that were independently associated with mortality by multivariable analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 130 (14%) patients died in the training cohort. Six comorbidities were predictive: renal failure, anemia, diabetes, peripheral artery disease, cerebrovascular disease and chronic lung disease. The increase in the number of comorbidities yielded a gradient of risk on top of well-known clinical predictors: ≥3 comorbidities (27% mortality, HR = 1.90, 95% CI 1.20-3.03, p = .006); 2 comorbidities (16% mortality, HR = 1.29, 95% CI 0.81-2.04, p = .30); and 0-1 comorbidities (7.6% mortality, reference category). The discrimination accuracy (C-statistic = 0.80) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, p = .20) of the predictive model using the 6 comorbidities was comparable to the predictive model using the Charlson index (C-statistic = 0.80; Hosmer-Lemeshow test, p = .70). Similar results were reproduced in the testing cohort (≥3 comorbidities: 24% mortality, HR = 2.37, 95% CI 1.25-4.49, p = .008; 2 comorbidities: 14% mortality, HR = 1.59, 95% CI 0.82-3.07, p = .20; 0-1 comorbidities: 7.5% reference category).

CONCLUSION

A simplified comorbidity assessment comprising 6 comorbidities provides useful risk stratification in elderly patients with ACS.

Comparison of Recommendations and Use of Cardiovascular Risk Equations by Health Technology Assessment Agencies and Clinical Guidelines

OBJECTIVES

To identify risk equations for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in primary and secondary prevention settings that are used or recommended by health technology assessment (HTA) organizations and in clinical guidelines (CGs).

METHODS

A targeted literature review was conducted using a two-stage search strategy. First, HTA reviews of manufacturers' drug submissions, reports from established HTA organizations (Europe, Canada, and Australia), and CGs from countries with and without HTA organizations, including the United States, were identified. Documents published between September 30, 2006 and September 30, 2016, were examined for cardiovascular risk equations, recommendations, and commentaries. Next, publications associated with risk equations and cited by HTA and CG documents were retrieved. This literature was examined to extract commentaries and risk equation study characteristics.

RESULTS

The review identified 47 risk equations, 25 in the primary CVD prevention setting (i.e., patients with no CVD history), including 5 for CVD prevention in diabetes and 22 solely in secondary prevention settings; 11 were identified for heart failure, 3 for stroke or transient ischemic attack, 2 for stable angina, and 11 for acute coronary syndrome or related conditions. A small set of primary prevention equations was found to be commonly used by HTAs, whereas secondary prevention equations were less common in HTA documents. CGs provided more risk equations as options than HTA documents.

CONCLUSIONS

Although there is an abundance of risk equations developed for primary and secondary prevention, there remains a need for additional research to provide sufficient clinical and HTA guidance for risk estimation, particularly in high-risk or secondary prevention settings.

Determinants of clinical presentation on outcomes in older patients with myocardial infarction

AIM

Myocardial infarction without chest pain misleads the clinician, resulting in a diagnosis delay and an increase of mortality. The main objective of the present study was to determine the risk factors of atypical presentation in older patients with myocardial infarction.

METHODS

All consecutive patients aged ≥75 years presenting with myocardial infarction and hospitalized in the cardiology intensive care unit were included in the present prospective multicenter observational study. All patients benefited from both specialized cardiac management and geriatric assessment.

RESULTS

A total of 215 consecutive patients were included. The mean age was 85 ± 6 years. A total of 142 patients (66%) had a typical presentation (i.e. chest pain) and 73 patients (34%) had an atypical clinical presentation (i.e. no chest pain). A total of 29 (13.5%) patients died within 30 days of the index hospitalization. Higher Cumulative Illness Rating Score-Geriatric severity index score (P = 0.019) and initial atrial fibrillation (P = 0.022) were predictive of 30-day all-cause mortality. Typical presentation (P = 0.010) was a protective factor of 30-day all-cause mortality. A Cumulative Illness Rating Score for Geriatrics total score increase (P = 0.0003) and residing in a nursing home (P = 0.024) emerged as independent risk factors for atypical presentation.

CONCLUSIONS

In "real-life" elderly patients, comorbidities influence the prognosis of myocardial infarction, but also clinical presentation. Identification of patients at risk of atypical presentation; that is, patients with multiple comorbid conditions, might help refine the prognostic value in older patients with myocardial infarction. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2018; 18: 1591-1596.

Self- vs proxy-reported mobility using the mobility assessment tool-short form in elderly preoperative patients

Background

Mobility is fundamental to maintenance of an independent lifestyle and can predict clinical outcomes after health events among older individuals. However, certain clinical situations do not accommodate physical or self-assessments. This investigation examines whether proxy-reported assessments of function using the Mobility Assessment Tool-short (MAT-sf) form is a reliable alternative.

Methods

Sixty-six older persons (≥ age 70) and their proxies were enrolled. Proxies rated patients' mobility using the MAT-sf as did the patients.

Results

The mean age of patients was 78.4 yr. (±6.2); 44% were female and 86% were white. Spouses made up 55% of the proxies, while 39% were children/in-laws. The correlation coefficient between patient and proxy MAT-sf scores was 0.81 (p < 0.01); a comparison of the slope of the regression line relating patient- and proxy-reported MAT-sf to a line of identity showed disagreement (p < 0.01), with proxy reports underreporting patient responses by 8.3% in lower mobility patients. The intra-class correlation characterizing agreement between repeated proxy reports 0.81.

Conclusion

Proxy reports of mobility in older patients have good reliability. However, in patients with poor mobility, the proxies tend to report a lower mobility than the patients.

Risk Stratification and in Hospital Morality in Patients Presenting with Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS) in Bahrain

Background:

Risk factors and short-term mortality in patients presented with Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS) in Bahrain has not been evaluated before.

Aim:

In this prospective observational study, we aim to determine the clinical risk profiles of patients with ACS in Bahrain and describe the incidence, pattern of presentation and predictors of in-hospital clinical outcomes after admission.

Methods:

Patients with ACS were prospectively enrolled over a 12 month period. The rate of incidence of risk factors in patients was compared with 635 non-cardiac patient admissions that matched for age and gender. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to predict poor outcomes in patients with ACS. The variables were ages >65 years, body mass index (BMI) >28 kg/m², GRACE (Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events) score >170, history of diabetes mellitus (DM), systolic hypertension >180 mmHg, level of creatinine >160 μmol/l and Heart Rate (HR) on admission >90 bpm, serum troponin rise and ST segment elevation on the ECG.

Results:

Patients with ACS (n=635) were enrolled consecutively. Mean age was 61.3 ± 13.2 years, with 417 (65.6%) male. Mean age for patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI, n=156) compared with non-STEMI (NSTEMI, n=158) and unstable angina (UA, n=321) was 56.5± 12.8 vs 62.5±14.0 years respectively. In-hospital mortality was 5.1%, 3.1% and 2.5% for patients with STEMI, NSTEMI, and UA, respectively. In STEMI patients, thrombolytic therapy was performed in 88 (56.5%) patients and 68 (43.5%) had primary coronary angioplasty (PCI). The predictive value of different clinical variables for in-hospital mortality and cardiac events in the study were: 2.8 for GRACE score >170, 3.1 for DM, 2.2 for SBP >180 mmHg, 1.4 for age >65 years, 1.8 for BMI >28, 1.7 for creatinine >160 μmol/L, 2.1 for HR >90 bpm, 2.2 for positive serum troponin and 2.3 for ST elevation.

Conclusion:

Patients with STEMI compared with NSTEMI and UA were of younger age. There was higher in-hospital mortality in STEMI compared with NSTEMI and UA patients. The most significant predictors of death or cardiac events on admission in ACS were DM, GRACE Score >170, systolic hypertension >180 mmHg, positive serum troponin and HR >90 bpm.

Urinary Incontinence as a Predictor of Death: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

The association between urinary incontinence (UI) and increased mortality remains controversial. The objective of our study was to evaluate if this association exists.

Methods

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies comparing death rates among patients suffering from UI to those without incontinence. We searched in Medline, Embase and the Cochrane library using specific keywords. Studies exploring the post-stroke period were excluded. Hazard ratios (HR) were pooled using models with random effects. We stratified UI by gender and by UI severity and pooled all models with adjustment for confounding variables.

Results

Thirty-eight studies were retrieved. When compared to non-urinary incontinent participants, UI was associated with an increase in mortality with pooled non adjusted HR of 2.22 (95%CI 1.77–2.78). The risk increased with UI severity: 1.24 (95%CI: 0.79–1.97) for light, 1.71 (95%CI: 1.26–2.31) for moderate, and 2.72 (95%CI: 1.90–3.87) for severe UI respectively. When pooling adjusted measures of association, the resulting HR was 1.27 (95%CI: 1.13–1.42) and increased progressively for light, moderate and severe UI: 1.07 (95%CI: 0.79–1.44), 1.25 (95%CI: 0.99–1.58), and 1.47 (95%CI: 1.03–2.10) respectively. There was no difference between genders.

Conclusion

UI is a predictor of higher mortality in the general and particularly in the geriatric population. The association increases with the severity of UI and persists when pooling models adjusted for confounders. It is unclear if this association is causative or just reflects an impaired general health condition. As in most meta-analyses of observational studies, methodological issues should be considered when interpreting results.

Evaluation of Acute Myocardial Infarction In-hospital Mortality Using a Risk-adjustment Model Based on Japanese Administrative Data

This study aimed to develop a new risk-adjustment method to assess acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in-hospital mortality. Risk-adjustment was based on variables obtained from administrative data from Japanese hospitals, and included factors such as age, gender, primary diagnosis and co-morbidity. The infarct location was determined using the criteria of the International Classification of Diseases (10th version). Potential co-morbidity risk factors for mortality were selected based on previous studies and their critical influence analysed to identify major co-morbidities. The remaining minor co-morbidities were then divided into two groups based on their medical implications. The major co-morbidities included shock, pneumonia, cancer and chronic renal failure. The two minor co-morbidity groups also demonstrated a substantial impact on mortality. The model was then used to assess clinical performance in the participating hospitals. Our model reliably employed the available data for the risk-adjustment of AMI mortality and provides a new approach to evaluating clinical performance.

Association Between Preadmission Functional Status and Use and Effectiveness of Secondary Prevention Medications in Elderly Survivors of Acute Myocardial Infarction

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether function-related indicators (FRIs), derived from preadmission claims data, help explain the frequent practice of forgoing secondary prevention medications observed in Medicare.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort.

SETTING

National Medicare data.

PARTICIPANTS

Elderly Medicare beneficiaries discharged alive from an acute myocardial infarction (AMI) hospitalization in 2007-2008 (N = 184,156).

MEASUREMENTS

Study outcomes were number of guideline-recommended secondary prevention medications (statins, beta-blockers, and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers) used after discharge and 12-month survival. Preadmission data (FRIs, cardiovascular conditions, comorbid conditions), type of AMI (non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction, anterior, other), and procedures and complications during the hospitalization were from claims data.

RESULTS

Function-related indicators (FRIs) were common before admission; 50% of individuals had at least one (range 0-11). After discharge, 85.8% used at least one class of guideline medication, and 30.2% used all three; 19.6% died within 12 months. Each additional FRI reduced the likelihood of receiving all three medication classes by 5% (adjusted odds ratio = 0.95, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.94-0.96) and increased 12-month mortality by 20% (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.20, 95% CI = 1.19-1.21). Individuals taking all three classes of medication were 30% less likely to die within 12 months than those not taking guideline medications (aHR = 0.70, 95% CI = 0.67-0.73). Similar survival benefit was observed in individuals with and without functional impairments.

CONCLUSION

Greater impairment in preadmission functional status, using a measure derived from claims data, was associated with less use of secondary prevention medications after AMI. Survival benefits of taking these medications were consistent across functional impairment levels.

Stabilizing l1-norm prediction models by supervised feature grouping

Emerging Electronic Medical Records (EMRs) have reformed the modern healthcare. These records have great potential to be used for building clinical prediction models. However, a problem in using them is their high dimensionality. Since a lot of information may not be relevant for prediction, the underlying complexity of the prediction models may not be high. A popular way to deal with this problem is to employ feature selection. Lasso and l1-norm based feature selection methods have shown promising results. But, in presence of correlated features, these methods select features that change considerably with small changes in data. This prevents clinicians to obtain a stable feature set, which is crucial for clinical decision making. Grouping correlated variables together can improve the stability of feature selection, however, such grouping is usually not known and needs to be estimated for optimal performance. Addressing this problem, we propose a new model that can simultaneously learn the grouping of correlated features and perform stable feature selection. We formulate the model as a constrained optimization problem and provide an efficient solution with guaranteed convergence. Our experiments with both synthetic and real-world datasets show that the proposed model is significantly more stable than Lasso and many existing state-of-the-art shrinkage and classification methods. We further show that in terms of prediction performance, the proposed method consistently outperforms Lasso and other baselines. Our model can be used for selecting stable risk factors for a variety of healthcare problems, so it can assist clinicians toward accurate decision making.

Clinical indicators for recurrent cardiovascular events in acute coronary syndrome patients treated with statins under routine practice in Thailand: an observational study

BACKGROUND

Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients are at very high cardiovascular risk and tend to have recurrent cardiovascular events. The clinical indicators for subsequent cardiovascular events are limited and need further investigation. This study aimed to explore clinical indicators that were associated with recurrent cardiovascular events following index hospitalization.

METHODS

The data of patients hospitalized with ACS at a tertiary care hospital in northern Thailand between January 2009 and December 2012 were retrospectively reviewed from medical charts and the electronic hospital database. The patients were classified into three groups based on the frequency of recurrent cardiovascular events (nonfatal ACS, nonfatal stroke, or all-cause death) they suffered: no recurrent events (0), single recurrent event (1), and multiple recurrent events (≥2). Ordinal logistic regression was performed to explore the clinical indicators for recurrent cardiovascular events.

RESULTS

A total of 405 patients were included; 60 % were male; the average age was 64.9 ± 11.5 years; 40 % underwent coronary revascularization during admission. Overall, 359 (88.6 %) had no recurrent events, 36 (8.9 %) had a single recurrent event, and 10 (2.5 %) had multiple recurrent events. The significant clinical indicators associated with recurrent cardiovascular events were achieving an LDL-C goal of < 70 mg/dL (Adjusted OR = 0.43; 95 % CI = 0.27-0.69, p-value < 0.001), undergoing revascularization during admission (Adjusted OR = 0.44; 95 % CI = 0.24-0.81, p-value = 0.009), being male (Adjusted OR = 1.85; 95 % CI = 1.29-2.66, p-value = 0.001), and decrease estimated glomerular filtration rate (Adjusted OR = 2.46; 95 % CI = 2.21-2.75, p-value < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The routine clinical practice indicators assessed in ACS patients that were associated with recurrent cardiovascular events were that achieving the LDL-C goal and revascularization are protective factors, while being male and having decreased estimated glomerular filtration rate are risk factors for recurrent cardiovascular events. These clinical indicators should be used for routinely monitoring patients to prevent recurrent cardiovascular events in ACS patients.

Patient evaluation and selection for transcatheter aortic valve replacement: the heart team approach

Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) has been shown to significantly impact mortality and quality of life in patients with severe aortic stenosis (AS) who are deemed high risk for surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR). Essential to these outcomes is proper patient selection. The multidisciplinary TAVR heart team was created to provide comprehensive patient evaluation and aid in proper selection. This review with outline the history and components of the heart team, and delineate the team's role in risk and frailty assessment, evaluation of common co-morbidities that impact outcomes, and the complex multi-modality imaging necessary for procedural planning and patient selection. The heart team is critical in determining patient eligibility and benefit and the optimal operative approach for TAVR. The future of structural heart disease will certainly require a team approach, and the TAVR heart team will serve as the successful model.

Estimating mortality in survivors of the acute coronary syndrome by the 4-drug score

OBJECTIVE

Four drug classes, platelet inhibitors, β-blockers, statins, and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (or angiotensin receptor blockers), have been shown to reduce mortality in clinical trials. We sought to evaluate whether the simple number of secondary prevention drugs at discharge is independently associated with 1-year mortality in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients.

METHODS

We analyzed a prospective cohort study using data of all 5 Acute Coronary Syndrome Israeli Surveys (ACSIS) conducted between 2002 and 2010 in all Israeli cardiology departments. All 9,107 hospital survivors of ACS participated.

RESULTS

A score from 1 to 4 discharge drugs was significantly associated with gradual decreasing rates of 1-year mortality (14.4, 9.0, 5.1, and 3.6%, respectively; p for trend <0.001). Only when the number of discharge drugs increased to 3-4 as a result of the intervention during hospitalization in patients initially admitted with 0-2 drugs, a significant multivariate-adjusted decrease in the hazard ratio (HR), independent of multiple baseline, admission presentation, and in-hospital course characteristics, was measured (HR, 0.66; 95% confidence interval, 0.50-0.87).

CONCLUSION

The use of a higher number of secondary prevention drugs at discharge following ACS was associated with significantly lower mortality rates, particularly in patients with mono- or dual-baseline therapy.

Epidemiology of heart failure

Heart failure (HF) has been singled out as an epidemic and is a staggering clinical and public health problem, associated with significant mortality, morbidity, and healthcare expenditures, particularly among those aged ≥ 65 years. The case mix of HF is changing over time with a growing proportion of cases presenting with preserved ejection fraction for which there is no specific treatment. Despite progress in reducing HF-related mortality, hospitalizations for HF remain frequent and rates of readmissions continue to rise. To prevent hospitalizations, a comprehensive characterization of predictors of readmission in patients with HF is imperative and must integrate the impact of multimorbidity related to coexisting conditions. New models of patient-centered care that draw on community-based resources to support HF patients with complex coexisting conditions are needed to decrease hospitalizations.

Promoting access to innovation for frail old persons. IAGG (International Association of Gerontology and Geriatrics), WHO (World Health Organization) and SFGG (Société Française de Gériatrie et de Gérontologie) Workshop--Athens January 20-21, 2012

Frailty tends to be considered as a major risk for adverse outcomes in older persons, but some important aspects remain matter of debate.

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this paper is to present expert's positions on the main aspects of the frailty syndrome in the older persons.

PARTICIPANTS

Workshop organized by International Association of Gerontology and Geriatrics (IAGG), World Health Organization (WHO) and Société Française de Gériatrie et de Gérontologie (SFGG).

RESULTS

Frailty is widely recognized as an important risk factor for adverse health outcomes in older persons. This can be of particular value in evaluating non-disabled older persons with chronic diseases but today no operational definition has been established. Nutritional status, mobility, activity, strength, endurance, cognition, and mood have been proposed as markers of frailty. Another approach calculates a multidimensional score ranging from "very fit" to "severely frail", but it is difficult to apply into the medical practice. Frailty appears to be secondary to multiple conditions using multiple pathways leading to a vulnerability to a stressor. Biological (inflammation, loss of hormones), clinical (sarcopenia, osteoporosis etc.), as well as social factors (isolation, financial situation) are involved in the vulnerability process. In clinical practice, detection of frailty is of major interest in oncology because of the high prevalence of cancer in older persons and the bad tolerance of the drug therapies. Presence of frailty should also be taken into account in the definition of the cardiovascular risks in the older population. The experts of the workshop have listed the points reached an agreement and those must to be a priority for improving understanding and use of frailty syndrome in practice.

CONCLUSION

Frailty in older adults is a syndrome corresponding to a vulnerability to a stressor. Diagnostic tools have been developed but none can integrate at the same time the large spectrum of factors and the simplicity asked by the clinical practice. An agreement with an international common definition is necessary to develop screening and to reduce the morbidity in older persons.

Minimizing inappropriate medications in older populations: a 10-step conceptual framework

The increasing burden of harm resulting from the use of multiple drugs in older patient populations represents a major health problem in developed countries. Approximately 1 in 4 older patients admitted to hospitals are prescribed at least 1 inappropriate medication, and up to 20% of all inpatient deaths are attributable to potentially preventable adverse drug reactions. To minimize this drug-related iatrogenesis, we propose a quality use of medicine framework that comprises 10 sequential steps: 1) ascertain all current medications; 2) identify patients at high risk of or experiencing adverse drug reactions; 3) estimate life expectancy in high-risk patients; 4) define overall care goals in the context of life expectancy; 5) define and confirm current indications for ongoing treatment; 6) determine the time until benefit for disease-modifying medications; 7) estimate the magnitude of benefit versus harm in relation to each medication; 8) review the relative utility of different drugs; 9) identify drugs that may be discontinued; and 10) implement and monitor a drug minimization plan with ongoing reappraisal of drug utility and patient adherence by a single nominated clinician. The framework aims to reduce drug use in older patients to the minimum number of essential drugs, and its utility is demonstrated in reference to a hypothetic case study. Further studies are warranted in validating this framework as a means for assisting clinicians to make more appropriate prescribing decisions in at-risk older patients.

Global left ventricular longitudinal systolic strain for early risk assessment in patients with acute myocardial infarction treated with primary percutaneous intervention

BACKGROUND

Left ventricular systolic function is a key determinant of outcome after ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). The aim of this study was to study speckle-tracking global longitudinal strain (GLS) for early risk evaluation in STEMI and compare it with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), wall motion score index (WMSI), and end-systolic volume index (ESVI).

METHODS

Five-hundred seventy-six patients underwent echocardiography ≤24 hours after primary percutaneous coronary intervention for STEMI. The end point was the composite of death, hospitalization with reinfarction, congestive heart failure, or stroke. Associations with outcome were assessed by multivariate Cox regression with adjustment for clinical parameters. Hazard ratios (HRs) for events within the first year are reported per absolute percentage GLS increase.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up period of 24 months, 162 patients experienced at least one event. GLS was associated with the composite end point (adjusted HR, 1.20; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-1.29) and also when controlling for LVEF (adjusted HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.07-1.29) and ESVI (adjusted HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.08-1.28). Although WMSI was significantly associated with outcome beyond any association accounted for by GLS, a borderline significant association was found after controlling for WMSI (adjusted HR for GLS, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.00-1.21). When GLS or WMSI was known, there was no significant association between LVEF or ESVI and outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

In a large population of patients with STEMI, GLS and WMSI were comparable and both superior for early risk assessment compared with volume-based left ventricular function indicators such as LVEF and ESVI. Compared with WMSI, the advantage of GLS is the provision of a semiautomated quantitative measure.

The impact of the aging population on coronary heart disease in the United States

BACKGROUND

The demographic shift toward an older population in the United States will result in a higher burden of coronary heart disease, but the increase has not been quantified in detail. We sought to estimate the impact of the aging US population on coronary heart disease.

METHODS

We used the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model, a Markov model of the US population between 35 and 84 years of age, and US Census projections to model the age structure of the population between 2010 and 2040.

RESULTS

Assuming no substantive changes in risks factors or treatments, incident coronary heart disease is projected to increase by approximately 26%, from 981,000 in 2010 to 1,234,000 in 2040, and prevalent coronary heart disease by 47%, from 11.7 million to 17.3 million. Mortality will be affected strongly by the aging population; annual coronary heart disease deaths are projected to increase by 56% over the next 30 years, from 392,000 to 610,000. Coronary heart disease-related health care costs are projected to rise by 41% from $126.2 billion in 2010 to $177.5 billion in 2040 in the United States. It may be possible to offset the increase in disease burden through achievement of Healthy People 2010/2020 objectives or interventions that substantially reduce obesity, blood pressure, or cholesterol levels in the population.

CONCLUSIONS

Without considerable changes in risk factors or treatments, the aging of the US population will result in a sizeable increase in coronary heart disease incidence, prevalence, mortality, and costs. Health care stakeholders need to plan for the future age-related health care demands of coronary heart disease.

Influence of frailty and health status on outcomes in patients with coronary disease undergoing percutaneous revascularization

BACKGROUND- Although older patients frequently undergo percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI), frailty, comorbidity, and quality of life are seldom part of risk prediction approaches. We assessed their incremental prognostic value over and above the risk factors in the Mayo Clinic risk score. METHODS AND RESULTS- Patients ≥65 years who underwent PCI were assessed for frailty (Fried criteria), comorbidity (Charlson index), and quality of life [SF-36]. Of the 628 discharged [median follow-up of 35.0 months (interquartile range, 22.7 to 42.9)], 78 died and 72 had a myocardial infarction (MI). Three-year mortality was 28% for frail patients, 6% for nonfrail patients. The respective 3-year rates of death or MI were 41% and 17%. After adjustment, frailty [hazard ratio (HR), 4.19 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.85, 9.51], physical component score of the SF-36 (HR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.24 to 2.02), and comorbidity, (HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.05, 1.16) were associated with mortality. Frailty was associated with mortality/MI (HR, 2.61, 1.52, 4.50). Models with conventional Mayo Clinic risk score had C-statistics of 0.628, 0.573 for mortality and mortality/MI, respectively. Adding frailty, quality of life, and comorbidity, the C-statistic was (0.675, 0.694, 0.671) for mortality and (0.607, 0.587, 0.576) for mortality/MI, respectively. Including frailty, comorbidities and SF-36, conferred a discernible improvement to predict death and death/MI (integrated discrimination improvement, 0.027 and 0.016, and net reclassification improvement of 43% and 18%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS- After PCI, frailty, comorbidity and poor quality of life are prevalent and are associated with adverse long-term outcomes. Their inclusion improves the discriminatory ability of the Mayo Clinic risk score derived from the routine cardiovascular risk factors.

Influence of comorbid conditions on one-year outcomes in non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome

OBJECTIVE

To investigate comorbid conditions with prognostic influence in non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTEACS).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The study group consisted of a derivation cohort of 1017 patients (admitted from October 1, 2002, through October 1, 2008) and an external validation cohort of 652 patients (admitted from February 1, 2006, through September 30, 2009). Comorbid conditions, including risk factors and components of the Charlson comorbidity index (ChCI) and coronary artery disease-specific index, were recorded. The main outcome was one-year mortality.

RESULTS

During follow-up, 103 patients died. After adjusting for variables associated with NSTEACS characteristics (base model), 5 comorbid conditions predicted mortality: severe or mild renal failure (hazard ratio [HR], 2.9 and HR, 1.6, respectively), dementia (HR, 3.1), peripheral artery disease (HR, 2.0), previous heart failure (HR, 2.6), and previous myocardial infarction (HR, 1.4). A simple comorbidity index (SCI) was developed using these variables, (per point: HR, 1.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-1.8; P = .0001). Adding the SCI, Charlson comorbidity index, or coronary artery disease-specific index to the base model resulted in a gain of 6.58%, 5.00%, and 4.04%, respectively, in discriminative ability (P = .001), without significant differences among the 3 indices. In patients with comorbid conditions, the highest risk period was in the first weeks after NSTEACS. The strength of the association between SCI and mortality rate was similar in the external validation cohort (HR, 1.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-1.6; P = .001).

CONCLUSION

Renal dysfunction, dementia, peripheral artery disease, previous heart failure, and previous myocardial infarction are the comorbid conditions that predict mortality in NSTEACS. A simple index using these variables proved to be as accurate as the more complex comorbidity indices for risk stratification. In-hospital management of patients with comorbid conditions merits further investigation.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of blood pressure screening in adolescents in the United States

OBJECTIVE

To compare the long-term effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of 3 approaches to managing elevated blood pressure (BP) in adolescents in the United States: no intervention, "screen-and-treat," and population-wide strategies to lower the entire BP distribution.

STUDY DESIGN

We used a simulation model to combine several data sources to project the lifetime costs and cardiovascular outcomes for a cohort of 15-year-old U.S. adolescents under different BP approaches and conducted cost-effectiveness analysis. We obtained BP distributions from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2004 and used childhood-to-adult longitudinal correlation analyses to simulate the tracking of BP. We then used the coronary heart disease policy model to estimate lifetime coronary heart disease events, costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALY).

RESULTS

Among screen-and-treat strategies, finding and treating the adolescents at highest risk (eg, left ventricular hypertrophy) was most cost-effective ($18000/QALY [boys] and $47000/QALY [girls]). However, all screen-and-treat strategies were dominated by population-wide strategies such as salt reduction (cost-saving [boys] and $650/QALY [girls]) and increasing physical education ($11000/QALY [boys] and $35000/QALY [girls]).

CONCLUSIONS

Routine adolescents BP screening is moderately effective, but population-based BP interventions with broader reach could potentially be less costly and more effective for early cardiovascular disease prevention and should be implemented in parallel.

Global longitudinal strain by speckle tracking for infarct size estimation

AIMS

To assess the utility of speckle tracking global longitudinal systolic strain (GLS) compared with traditional echocardiographic indices including left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), wall motion score index (WMSI), and end-systolic volume index (ESVI), in estimating the infarct size (IS) following a ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).

METHODS AND RESULTS

The study includes 227 patients with STEMI and day 1 and day 30 echocardiograms, and myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) only at day 30 to assess IS. IS was modelled by linear regression with echocardiographic parameters using MPI as reference. Resulting echocardiographic IS estimates were compared by ratios of standard deviations of model residuals (RSD). To estimate the resultant day 30 IS 1 day after a STEMI, GLS was more precise than LVEF (RSD: 0.91, P = 0.014) and ESVI (RSD: 0.88, P = 0.002), and comparable with WMSI (RSD 0.99, P = 0.86). To estimate IS from a day 30 echocardiogram, GLS was comparable with LVEF (RSD: 0.98, P = 0.68) and ESVI (RSD: 1.04, P = 0.40), but WMSI was more precise (RSD: 0.89, P = 0.006). Multiple linear regression revealed that on day 1 after STEMI, GLS significantly complemented the standard parameters separately (P-values all models <0.001) or combined [multivariable model: GLS (P = 0.001), WMSI (P = 0.03), LVEF (P = 0.40)]. On day 30, GLS significantly complemented LVEF and ESVI, but when WMSI was in the model, GLS's association with IS was not significant.

CONCLUSION

On day 1 after revascularization for STEMI, GLS contains additional information about final IS compared with standard echocardiographic systolic function indices. Studies are needed to clarify whether this has prognostic implications.

Anemia and chronic kidney disease are potential risk factors for mortality in stroke patients: a historic cohort study

Background

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated to a higher stroke risk. Anemia is a common consequence of CKD, and is also a possible risk factor for cerebrovascular diseases. The purpose of this study was to examine if anemia and CKD are independent risk factors for mortality after stroke.

Methods

This historic cohort study was based on a stroke registry and included patients treated for a first clinical stroke in the stroke unit of one academic hospital over a three-year period. Mortality predictors comprised demographic characteristics, CKD, glomerular filtration rate (GFR), anemia and other stroke risk factors. GFR was estimated by means of the simplified Modification of Diet in Renal Disease formula. Renal function was assessed according to the Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative (K/DOQI)-CKD classification in five groups. A value of hemoglobin < 120 g/L in women and < 130 g/L in men on admission defined anemia. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox models were used to describe and analyze one-year survival.

Results

Among 890 adult stroke patients, the mean (Standard Deviation) calculated GFR was 64.3 (17.8) ml/min/1.73 m² and 17% had anemia. Eighty-two (10%) patients died during the first year after discharge. Among those, 50 (61%) had K/DOQI CKD stages 3 to 5 and 32 (39%) stages 1 or 2 (p < 0.001). Anemia was associated with an increased risk of death one year after discharge (p < 0.001). After adjustment for other factors, a higher hemoglobin level was independently associated with decreased mortality one year after discharge [hazard ratio (95% CI) 0.98 (0.97-1.00)].

Conclusions

Both CKD and anemia are frequent among stroke patients and are potential risk factors for decreased one-year survival. The inclusion of patients with a first-ever clinical stroke only and the determination of anemia based on one single measure, on admission, constitute limitations to the external validity. We should investigate if an early detection and management of both CKD and anemia could improve survival in stroke patients.

The heart failure epidemic

Heart failure has been singled out as an emerging epidemic, which could be the result of increased incidence and/or increased survival leading to increased prevalence. Knowledge of the responsibility of each factor in the genesis of the epidemic is crucial for prevention. Population-based studies have shown that, over time, the incidence of heart failure remained overall stable, while survival improved. Therefore, the heart failure epidemic is chiefly one of hospitalizations. Data on temporal trends in the incidence and prevalence of heart failure according to ejection fraction and how it may have changed over time are needed while interventions should focus on reducing the burden of hospitalizations in hear failure.

National impact of the troponin diagnostic standard on the prevalence and prognosis of acute myocardial infarction in older persons

BACKGROUND

Consensus guidelines from the American College of Cardiology, the American Heart Association, and the European Society of Cardiology have made cardiac troponin central to the diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Although multiple studies have shown that the troponin diagnostic standard facilitates the identification of new AMI cases in the general population, and that elevations of troponin are associated with poor prognosis, questions remain regarding the impact of the troponin diagnostic standard on the prevalence and prognosis of AMI in older persons.

METHODS

Nationwide samples of eligible Medicare beneficiaries aged > or =65 years who were hospitalized (n = 71,120) with a primary discharge diagnosis of AMI between April 1998 and March 1999 (baseline cohort) or July 2000 and June 2001 (remeasurement cohort) were evaluated. The analysis was restricted to patients with clinically confirmed AMI who underwent testing for both CK-MB and troponin.

RESULTS

The majority of these patients (71.0%) were both CK-MB- and troponin-positive, but 17.8% were diagnosed with AMI based solely on positive troponin levels. Combining the CK-MB or both groups as a reference and troponin as a design variable to fit Cox proportional hazards models, troponin-only-positive patients had an unadjusted risk ratio (RR) of 1.14 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07-1.22) for the 30-day mortality and RR of 1.09 (95% CI, 1.03-1.15) for the 3-year mortality. However, after adjusting for patient demographics, clinical characteristics, physician specialties, and hospitals characteristics, troponin-only-positive patients had similar risk for early- and long-term mortality as the other 2 groups; the risk-adjusted RR for 30-day mortality was 0.96 (95% CI, 0.89-1.02) and for 3-year mortality was 0.95 (95% CI, 0.90-1.00).

CONCLUSION

The widespread application of cardiac troponins results in a substantial increase in AMI diagnoses in older patients. Contrary to the prevailing wisdom that troponin-only-positive AMIs are smaller "infarctlets" and likely to have better prognosis, older persons with troponin-only AMIs are at similar risk for early and long-term mortality compared with those with CK-MB-positive AMIs. Therefore, nationwide efforts should focus on the unique characteristics of this emerging patient population so as to improve quality of care provided to this high-risk cohort of patients with AMI.

Epidemiology of chronic kidney disease in heart failure

Heart failure is common and is associated with a poor prognosis. Chronic kidney disease is common in heart failure and shares many risk factors with heart failure, such as age, hypertension, diabetes, and coronary artery disease. Over half of all patients who have heart failure may have moderate-to-severe chronic kidney disease. The presence of chronic kidney disease is associated with increased morbidity and mortality, yet it is also associated with underuse of evidence-based heart failure therapy that may reduce morbidity and mortality. Understanding the epidemiology and outcomes of chronic kidney disease in heart failure is essential to ensure proper management of these patients.

Coronary heart disease attributable to passive smoking: CHD Policy Model

BACKGROUND

Passive smoking is a major risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD), and existing estimates are out of date due to recent and substantial changes in the level of exposure.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the annual clinical burden and cost of CHD treatment attributable to passive smoking.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Annual attributable CHD deaths, myocardial infarctions (MI), total CHD events, and the direct cost of CHD treatment.

METHODS

A Monte Carlo simulation estimated the CHD events and costs as a function of the prevalence of CHD risk factors, including passive-smoking prevalence and a low (1.26) and high (1.65) relative risk of CHD due to passive smoking. Estimates were calculated using the CHD Policy Model, calibrated to reproduce key CHD outcomes in the baseline Year 2000 in the U.S.

RESULTS

At 1999-2004 levels, passive smoking caused 21,800 (SE=2400) to 75,100 (SE=8000) CHD deaths and 38,100 (SE=4300) to 128,900 (SE=14,000) MIs annually, with a yearly CHD treatment cost of $1.8 (SE=$0.2) to $6.0 (SE=$0.7) billion. If recent trends in the reduction in the prevalence of passive smoking continue from 2000 to 2008, the burden would be reduced by approximately 25%-30%.

CONCLUSIONS

Passive smoking remains a substantial clinical and economic burden in the U.S.

Evolving applications for patient-centered health status measures

Patient-centered health status measures-assessments of patients' symptoms, function, and quality of life-have matured substantially over the past 2 decades. Currently, valid, reliable, and sensitive disease-specific measures are available for quantifying the health status of patients with cardiovascular disease. This article briefly reviews the concept of health status measures, with a focus on their interpretation. It then discusses both the rationale and potential applications of health status measures in clinical care. Health status measures are not surrogate measures of outcome but rather highly meaningful outcomes of care. As such, they have important emerging roles as outcomes in clinical trials, as tools for monitoring patients in routine clinical care, as a mechanism for operationalizing and evaluating disease management programs, and as tools for quality assessment/improvement. Over time, it is expected that health status measures will also have an increasingly important role in patient-centered medical decision making. By becoming aware of the evolving roles of health status measures, clinicians can help to accelerate the realization of the Institute of Medicine's vision for a more transparent, evidence-based, patient-centered healthcare system.

Frailty and its potential relevance to cardiovascular care

Frailty is characterized by vulnerability to acute stressors and is a consequence of decline in overall function and physiologic reserves. An estimated 7% of the US population older than 65 years and 30% of octogenarians are frail. The domains to define frailty include mobility, strength, balance, motor processing, cognition, nutrition, endurance, and physical activity. Pathophysiologic pathways leading to frailty involve a multisystem cascade that includes neuroendocrine dysfunction with lower insulin-like growth factor and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate and an altered inflammatory milieu with increased levels of C-reactive protein, interleukins, tumor necrosis factor alpha, and abnormal coagulation. Frailty predicts death and heralds the transition to disability in general populations. As the population with coronary artery disease shifts toward older patients, physicians must consider the role of frailty in their patients. This review will enable clinicians to recognize frailty and consider its relevance in their daily practice. We also elaborate on reasons to consider frailty in older adults with cardiovascular disease and focus on its early identification, on referral to specialists, and on care after serious cardiac events.

Risk stratification and prognostic factors in the post-myocardial infarction patient

Among the 5 million patients presenting to emergency departments with chest pain each year in the United States, approximately 1 million are diagnosed with myocardial infarction (MI). Physicians have the difficult task of making decisions regarding admission and treatment and identifying patients at high risk for adverse outcomes, such as early mortality, left ventricular dysfunction (LVD), and heart failure. Several measures can be implemented in the process of risk assessment, including clinical judgment, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic findings, and the presence of biomarkers. Biomarkers--which can be classified as antecedent, screening, diagnostic, staging, or prognostic--may help identify the subset of patients who need early intervention and/or intensive therapy. Using a multimarker strategy that combines a marker of hemodynamic stress (brain natriuretic peptide) or of inflammation (C-reactive protein) with a marker of necrosis (cardiac troponin) may help to risk-stratify patients, guide treatment, and optimize admission and discharge decisions. This article discusses the potential benefits of risk assessment tools in the management of post-MI patients with LVD.

Predictive power of systolic function and congestive heart failure in patients with patients admitted for chest pain without ST elevation in the troponin era

BACKGROUND

Impaired systolic function and congestive heart failure (CHF) are powerful predictors of adverse outcomes in patients with myocardial infarction (MI). However, there are little data in which both of these variables were assessed in heterogenous patients admitted from the emergency department for exclusion of ischemia.

METHODS

Consecutive patients admitted for MI exclusion who had ejection fraction (EF) measured were included. Systolic dysfunction was defined as EF <40%. Congestive heart failure was diagnosed based on clinical or x-ray evidence in the first 24 hours. Multivariate analysis was used to determine predictors of 30-day and 1-year mortality.

RESULTS

Of the 4,343 consecutive patients admitted, 3,682 (85%) had EF assessed (including 97% of the troponin I [TnI]-positive patients) and were included. One-year unadjusted mortality was 9.5%, but in the presence of systolic dysfunction or CHF, it increased to 22% and 26%, respectively. The most important multivariate predictors of 30-day and 1-year mortality were similar and included CHF (OR for 1-year mortality 2.5, 95% CI 1.9-3.4), TnI elevations (OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.5-2.6), and severe renal failure (OR 5.2, 95% CI 3.7-7.2). Systolic dysfunction was predictive of 1 year (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.4-2.5) but not 30-day mortality. Results were similar in the 3,018 patients who were troponin-negative.

CONCLUSIONS

Congestive heart failure is an independent predictor of both short- and long-term mortality in patients admitted for MI exclusion. In contrast, systolic dysfunction predicts long-term but not short-term mortality. One cannot be used as a surrogate for the other.

Value of simultaneous functional assessment in association with acute rest perfusion imaging for predicting short- and long-term outcomes in emergency department patients with chest pain

BACKGROUND

Rest tomographic myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) has significant utility for clinical decision making in emergency department chest pain patients. The role of functional data, commonly acquired with perfusion, has not been systematically evaluated.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Low- to moderate-risk patients undergoing rest MPI for risk stratification were included. The patients' MPI findings were classified as normal (normal perfusion or function), abnormal (perfusion defect with abnormal regional function), or discordant (perfusion defect with normal regional function). Ejection fraction was determined from the gated MPI studies. Events based on perfusion classifications and ejection fraction were evaluated. A total of 2,826 consecutive patients (abnormal MPI results in 40%, normal in 32%, and discordant in 27%) were studied. Outcomes were similar for those with normal MPI results versus those with discordant MPI results (myocardial infarction [MI] based on troponin I [TnI], 3.5% vs 4.0%; MI based on creatine kinase-MB, 1.5% vs 1.7%; revascularization, 5.2% vs 5.5%; and MI/revascularization based on TnI, 7.9% vs 8.1%) (P = not significant for all). Both groups had significantly fewer events (P < .001 for all) when compared with patients with abnormal MPI studies (MI based on TnI, 15%; MI based on creatine kinase-MB, 10%; revascularization, 17%; MI based on TnI or revascularization, 24%). The mortality rate was not different among the 3 groups. Multivariate analysis showed that mild/moderate and severe systolic dysfunction were independent predictors of 30-day and 1-year mortality rates (P = .001).

CONCLUSIONS

The concurrent evaluation of perfusion and function (regional and global) with MPI provides significant risk/outcome predictive power.

Risk factor assessment: defining populations and individuals at risk

This article summarizes the current knowledge on risk stratification in patients who have structural heart disease, notably coronary artery disease and nonischemic cardiomyopathy. Although other types of structural heart disease and inherited ion channel abnormalities are also associated with a risk of SCD, the risk stratification strategies and data in these entities are diverse and beyond the scope of this article.

Weight change after myocardial infarction--the Enhancing Recovery in Coronary Heart Disease patients (ENRICHD) experience

BACKGROUND

The relationship of changes in weight to outcomes in patients after myocardial infarction (MI) is controversial.

METHODS

From the ENRICHD trial data, we assessed weight change, and the associations of baseline weight and change at follow-up with outcomes and interactions between psychosocial factors.

RESULTS

At baseline, 73.6% of patients (n = 1706) were overweight or obese; 134 patients had body mass index of > or = 40. Underweight patients were more likely to die or have nonfatal recurrent MI. After controlling for covariates, overweight and obese patients had similar outcomes to normal-weight patients. Eighteen percent of patients gained > 5%, 27% lost > 5%, and 55% had < or = 5% change in weight. Compared with weight loss of < or = 5%, the risk of death (adjusted hazard ratio 1.74, P = .01) and cardiovascular death (hazard ratio 1.79, P = .04) increased with weight loss of > 5%. After propensity matching, weight loss of > 5% remained as a significant risk factor for death and cardiovascular death. There was no interaction between weight change and depression and/or social support at baseline or follow-up. Weight change was not associated with recurrent MI or cardiovascular hospitalizations.

CONCLUSIONS

A large proportion of patients lose or gain > 5% of body weight after an MI. The association between obesity and lower mortality is modulated by comorbidities. Weight loss after MI is associated with worse outcomes and is not related to depression or social support.

Renal impairment predicts long-term mortality risk after acute myocardial infarction

Renal function predicts mortality after acute myocardial infarction (AMI), but it is unknown whether the prognostic importance of renal function persists over time. This study examined how the association between renal function and mortality changed in the 10 yr after AMI in a cohort of patients. In 118,753 patients (age >/=65 yr) from the Cooperative Cardiovascular Project, mean Cockcroft-Gault creatinine clearance was 55 +/- 24 ml/min and estimated GFR was 57 +/- 21 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) at baseline. By 10 yr, 68% of patients had died. Compared with normal renal function, even mild renal impairment increased the 10-yr risk for mortality risk by 10%. Severe renal impairment more than doubled the risk for mortality at 1 yr, and this increased risk persisted at both 5 and 10 yr. At 1 yr, the contribution of creatinine clearance to mortality risk rivaled traditional factors such as BP and systolic function; by 10 yr, creatinine clearance surpassed these other risk factors, rivaled only by patient age. Associations with estimated GFR demonstrated similar trends. In conclusion, renal function in hospitalized patients with AMI is an important and consistent predictor of mortality for up to 10 yr.