Coronary heart disease risk prediction in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study

Clinical features, future cardiac events, and prognostic factors following percutaneous coronary intervention in young female patients

BACKGROUND

The proportion of young females among the patients who undergo percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is relatively small, and information on their clinical characteristics is limited. This study investigated the clinical characteristics and prognostic factors for future cardiac events in young females who underwent PCI.

METHODS

This multicenter observational study included 187 consecutive female patients aged < 60 years who underwent PCI in seven hospitals. The primary composite endpoint was the incidence of cardiac death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and target vessel revascularization.

RESULTS

The mean patient age was 52.1 ± 6.1 years and 89 (47.6%) had diabetes, and renal dysfunction (an estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2) was observed in 38 (20.3%). During a median follow-up of 3.3 years, the primary endpoint occurred in 28 patients. The Cox proportional hazards models showed that renal dysfunction was an independent predictor for the primary endpoint (hazard ratio 3.04, 95% confidence interval 1.25-7.40, p = 0.01), as well as multivessel disease (hazard ratio 2.79, 95% confidence interval 1.12-6.93, p = 0.03). Patients with renal dysfunction had a significantly higher risk for the primary endpoint than those without renal dysfunction.

CONCLUSIONS

Renal dysfunction was strongly associated with future cardiac events in young females who underwent PCI.

Sex Differences in Cardiovascular Risk Associated With Prediabetes and Undiagnosed Diabetes

INTRODUCTION

Women with Type 2 diabetes (T2D) face up to 50% higher risk of cardiovascular disease than men. This study evaluated the extent to which prediabetes and undiagnosed T2D are associated with a greater excess risk of cardiovascular disease in women versus in men.

METHODS

Data were pooled from 18,745 cardiovascular disease-free individuals from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, and the Jackson Heart Study. The risk of coronary heart disease, ischemic stroke, and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (coronary heart disease or stroke) associated with prediabetes or undiagnosed T2D was estimated using Cox models adjusting for sociodemographic factors, concomitant risk factors, medication use, and menopausal status. Data were collected in 2022, and the analysis was performed in 2023.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 18.6 years, the associations between prediabetes and risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease were only significant in women (hazard ratio=1.18, 95% CI=1.01, 1.34, p=0.03) but not in men (hazard ratio=1.08, 95% CI=1.00, 1.28, p=0.06) (p-interaction=0.18). The associations between undiagnosed T2D and cardiovascular disease outcomes were significant in both sexes, but the effect was more pronounced in women (coronary heart disease: hazard ratio=1.83, 95% CI=1.4, 2.41, p<0.0001 in women vs hazard ratio=1.6, 95% CI=1.38, 2.07, p=0.007 in men; stroke: hazard ratio=1.99, 95% CI=1.39, 2.72, p<0.0001 vs hazard ratio=1.81, 95% CI=1.36, 2.6, p<0.0001; atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease: hazard ratio=1.86, 95% CI=1.5, 2.28, p<0.0001 vs hazard ratio=1.65, 95% CI=1.4, 1.98, p<0.0001) (all p-interactions≤0.2). Both White and Black patients exhibit similar sex differences.

CONCLUSIONS

Prediabetes or undiagnosed T2D was associated with a greater excess risk of cardiovascular disease in women than in men. The sex differential in cardiovascular disease risk among those without the T2D diagnosis suggests the need for sex-specific guidelines in T2D screening and treatment.

Age-Related Differences in the Contribution of Systolic Blood Pressure and Biomarkers to Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

We sought to determine how biomarkers known to be associated with hypertension-induced end-organ injury complement the use of systolic blood pressure (SBP) for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction at different ages. Using data from visits 2 (1990 to 1992) and 5 (2011 to 2013) of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, 3 models were used to predict CVD (composite of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure). Model A included traditional risk factors (TRFs) except SBP, model B-TRF plus SBP, and model C-TRF plus biomarkers (high-sensitivity troponin T [hsTnT] and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP]). Harrel's C-statistics were used to assess risk discrimination for CVD comparing models B and A and C and B. At visit 2, the addition of SBP to TRF (model B vs model A) significantly improved the C-statistic (∆C-statistic, 95% confidence interval 0.010, 0.007 to 0.013) whereas the addition of hsTnT to TRF (model C vs model B) decreased the C-statistic (∆C-statistic -0.0038, -0.0075 to -0.0001) compared with SBP. At visit 5, the addition of SBP to TRF did not significantly improve the C-statistic (∆C-statistic 0.001, -0.002 to 0.005) whereas the addition of both hsTnT and NT-proBNP to TRF significantly improved the C-statistic compared with SBP (∆C-statistic 0.028, 0.015 to 0.041 and 0.055, 0.036 to 0.074, respectively). In summary, the incremental value of SBP for CVD risk prediction diminishes with age whereas the incremental value of hsTnT and NT-proBNP increases with age.

Depression with obstructive sleep apnea lead to high cardiovascular disease morbidity/all-cause mortality: Findings from the SHHS cohort

The aim of this study is to explore the association between depression and obstructive sleep apnea, and cardiovascular disease morbidity/all-cause mortality using Sleep Heart Health Study data. This post hoc analysis of a prospective study used patient data from the Sleep Heart Health Study conducted between 1995 and 1998. The association between depression and obstructive sleep apnea, and cardiovascular disease morbidity/all-cause mortality was explored using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models. A total of 4918 participants, 656 (13.3%) with obstructive sleep apnea (obstructive sleep apnea group), 1614 (32.8%) with depression (depression group), 482 (9.8%) with depression and obstructive sleep apnea (depression and obstructive sleep apnea group), and 2166 (44%) with neither obstructive sleep apnea nor depression (health group), were included. The incidence of cardiovascular disease was 24.5%, 31.0%, 31.6% and 41.7% for healthy, depression, obstructive sleep apnea, and depression and obstructive sleep apnea groups, respectively. The risk of cardiovascular disease in depression and obstructive sleep apnea participants was increased compared with that in healthy participants, which was consistent across various definitions of obstructive sleep apnea (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.24 [1.06-1.47]; 1.25 [1.05-1.49]; 1.28 [1.06-1.54]; 1.55 [1.22-1.96] for apnea-hypopnea index ≥ 10 per hr, 15 per hr, 20 per hr, 30 per hr, respectively). The risk of all-cause mortality was increased in the depression and obstructive sleep apnea participants (hazard ratio: 1.46; 95% confidence interval: 1.07-1.99) compared with that in healthy participants when the definition of obstructive sleep apnea was apnea-hypopnea index ≥ 30. Participants with depression and obstructive sleep apnea might be at a greater risk of cardiovascular disease, and those with higher apnea-hypopnea index might be at a greater risk of all-cause mortality.

Neck circumference predicts development of carotid intima-media thickness and carotid plaque: A community-based longitudinal study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Carotid intima-media thickness (C-IMT) is an important index for evaluating subclinical atherosclerosis. Neck circumference (NC), a new anthropometric index of the upper body fat, is closely related to cardiovascular disease (CVD) and CVD risk factors. This study investigated the relationship between NC, C-IMT, and carotid plaque in a community-based cohort.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Participants recruited from Shanghai communities were followed up for 1.1-2.9 years. All participants underwent anthropometric and biochemical measurements. Elevated NC was defined as NC ≥ 38.5 cm and NC ≥ 34.5 cm in men and women, respectively. Elevated C-IMT, determined by ultrasound, was defined as a level higher than the 75th percentile in the study population (>0.75 mm). In total, 1189 participants without carotid plaque at baseline were included, with an average age of 59.6 ± 7.3 years. After a mean follow-up of 2.1 ± 0.2 years, 203 participants developed carotid plaques. After adjusting for various atherosclerosis risk factors, the logistic regression showed that the higher NC group had a significantly greater risk of developing carotid plaque than the lower NC group (odds ratio [OR], 1.55; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-2.14; P = 0.008). Of those without carotid plaque at follow-up, 495 participants developed elevated C-IMT. Compared to the lower NC group, the higher NC group had a significantly increased risk of elevated C-IMT (OR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.14-1.95; P = 0.003).

CONCLUSION

Higher NC was significantly positively correlated with the risk of carotid plaque and elevated C-IMT.

Persistent vascular dysfunction following an acute nonpharmacological reduction in blood pressure in hypertensive patients

BACKGROUND

Vascular dysfunction, an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease, often persists in patients with hypertension, despite improvements in blood pressure control induced by antihypertensive medications.

METHODS

As some of these medications may directly affect vascular function, this study sought to comprehensively examine the impact of reducing blood pressure, by a nonpharmacological approach (5 days of sodium restriction), on vascular function in 22 hypertensive individuals (14 men/8 women, 50 ± 10 years). Following a 2-week withdrawal of antihypertensive medications, two 5-day dietary phases, liberal sodium (liberal sodium, 200 mmol/day) followed by restricted sodium (restricted sodium, 10 mmol/day), were completed. Resting blood pressure was assessed and vascular function, at both the conduit and microvascular levels, was evaluated by brachial artery flow-mediated dilation (FMD), reactive hyperemia, progressive handgrip exercise, and passive leg movement (PLM).

RESULTS

Despite a sodium restriction-induced fall in blood pressure (liberal sodium: 141 ± 14/85 ± 9; restricted sodium 124 ± 12/79 ± 9 mmHg, P < 0.01 for both SBP and DBP), FMD (liberal sodium: 4.6 ± 1.8%; restricted sodium: 5.1 ± 2.1%, P = 0.27), and reactive hyperemia (liberal sodium: 548 ± 201; restricted sodium: 615 ± 206 ml, P = 0.08) were not altered. Similarly, brachial artery vasodilation during handgrip exercise was not different between conditions (liberal sodium: Δ0.36 ± 0.19 mm; restricted sodium: Δ0.42 ± 0.18 mm, P = 0.16). Lastly, PLM-induced changes in peak blood flow (liberal sodium: 5.3 ± 2.5; restricted sodium: 5.8 ± 3.6 ml/min per mmHg, P = 0.30) and the total vasodilatory response [liberal sodium: 2 (0.9-2.5) vs. restricted sodium: 1.7 (1.1-2.6) ml/min per mmHg; P = 0.5] were also not different between conditions.

CONCLUSION

Thus vascular dysfunction, at both the conduit and microvascular levels, persists in patients with hypertension even when blood pressure is acutely reduced by a nonpharmacological approach.

Cardiovascular risk in patients receiving antihypertensive drug treatment from the perspective of endothelial function

Blood-pressure-lowering therapy with antihypertensive drugs can reduce the risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in patients with hypertension. However, patients treated with antihypertensive drugs generally have a worse prognosis than untreated individuals. Consistent with the results obtained from epidemiological studies, a clinical study showed that endothelial function was impaired more in treated patients with hypertension than in untreated individuals with the same blood pressure level, suggesting that blood-pressure-lowering therapy with currently available antihypertensive drugs cannot restore endothelial function to the level of that in untreated individuals. Several mechanisms of endothelial dysfunction in treated patients are postulated: irreversible damage to the endothelium caused by higher cumulative elevated blood pressure exposure over time; the persistence of the primary causes of hypertension even after the initiation of antihypertensive drug treatment, including an activated renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system, oxidative stress, and inflammation; and higher global cardiovascular risk related not only to conventional cardiovascular risk factors but also to undetectable nonconventional risk factors. Lifestyle modifications/nonpharmacological interventions should be strongly recommended for both untreated and treated individuals with hypertension. Lifestyle modifications/nonpharmacological interventions may directly correct the primary causes of hypertension, which can improve endothelial function and consequently reduce cardiovascular risk regardless of the use or nonuse of antihypertensive drugs.

Risk Assessment of CHD Using Retinal Images with Machine Learning Approaches for People with Cardiometabolic Disorders

BACKGROUND

Coronary heart disease (CHD) is the leading cause of death worldwide, constituting a growing health and social burden. People with cardiometabolic disorders are more likely to develop CHD. Retinal image analysis is a novel and noninvasive method to assess microvascular function. We aim to investigate whether retinal images can be used for CHD risk estimation for people with cardiometabolic disorders.

METHODS

We have conducted a case-control study at Shenzhen Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital, where 188 CHD patients and 128 controls with cardiometabolic disorders were recruited. Retinal images were captured within two weeks of admission. The retinal characteristics were estimated by the automatic retinal imaging analysis (ARIA) algorithm. Risk estimation models were established for CHD patients using machine learning approaches. We divided CHD patients into a diabetes group and a non-diabetes group for sensitivity analysis. A ten-fold cross-validation method was used to validate the results.

RESULTS

The sensitivity and specificity were 81.3% and 88.3%, respectively, with an accuracy of 85.4% for CHD risk estimation. The risk estimation model for CHD with diabetes performed better than the model for CHD without diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

The ARIA algorithm can be used as a risk assessment tool for CHD for people with cardiometabolic disorders.

Menopausal hormone therapy and risk of cardiovascular events in women with prediabetes or type 2 diabetes: A pooled analysis of 2917 postmenopausal women

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The effect of MHT on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among women with prediabetes or type 2 diabetes (PreDM or T2DM) is unclear. We examined the association between ever or early use MHT and CVD risk in postmenopausal women with PreDM or T2DM, and the potential modifying effect of race.

METHODS

2,917 postmenopausal women with PreDM or T2DM were pooled from 3 prospective CVD cohorts (the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities, the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, and the Jackson Heart Study). Ever (yes vs no) or early use of MHT (MHT initiated ≤5 vs > 5 years since menopause), and their associations with ischemic stroke, coronary heart disease (CHD), and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 15 years, 264 stroke, 484 CHD, and 659 ASCVD events were observed. In fully adjusted models, ever use of MHT was associated with reduced risk of stroke (hazard ratio 0.86, 95% CI 0.76-0.98), CHD (0.85, 0.74-0.98), and ASCVD (0.83, 0.73-0.95) in white women with PreDM or T2DM. Early use of MHT was associated with reduced risk of stroke (0.82, 0.72-0.95), CHD (0.85, 0.74-0.98), and ASCVD (0.82, 0.70-0.96) in the white group. No risk reduction with ever or early use of MHT was found for black women with PreDM or T2DM.

CONCLUSIONS

MHT is associated with statistically reduced CVD risk among white but not black women with PreDM or DM. Race is an effect modifier in the association between MHT use and CVD.

Association of childhood obesity phenotypes with early adulthood Carotid Intima-Media Thickness (CIMT): Tehran lipid and glucose study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Over the past few years, obesity and metabolic syndrome prevalence among children and adolescence have an increasing trend. This study aims to investigate the association of obesity phenotypes during childhood and adolescence with early adulthood carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Participants were divided into four obesity phenotypes: Metabolically healthy normal weight (MHNW), metabolically unhealthy normal weight (MUNW), metabolically healthy obese (MHO), and metabolically unhealthy obese (MUO). Participants were followed for 18 years. Multivariate-adjusted Risk Ratios (RRs) were calculated for high CIMT (≥95% percentile) incidence. In this cohort study 1220 children and adolescents with the average age of 10.9 ± 4.0 years were included. CIMT values had a significantly increasing trend from MHNW to MUO group (p for trend<0.001). Individuals with normal weight status, even with an unhealthy metabolic profile did not have higher risk of high CIMT. Similarly, Children with obesity but healthy metabolic status was not at higher risk. On the other hand, MUO phenotype during childhood was associated with increased risk of high CIMT in early adulthood (RR = 2.13, 95%CI (1.02-4.48)). This association became insignificant for all obesity phenotypes after adjusting for adulthood BMI.

CONCLUSION

Adulthood CIMT has an increasing trend based on childhood and adolescence obesity phenotypes from MHNW to MUO. Children with MUO phenotype was the only ones that had an increased risk of high CIMT incidence in early adulthood.

Early Menopause and Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Women With or Without Type 2 Diabetes: A Pooled Analysis of 9,374 Postmenopausal Women

OBJECTIVE

Early menopause may be associated with higher cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), coupled with early menopause, may result in even greater CVD risk in women. We examined CVD risk in women with early compared with normal-age menopause, with and without T2DM overall, and by race/ethnicity.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We pooled data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, and the Jackson Heart Study. We included women with data on menopausal status, menopausal age, and T2DM, excluding pre- or perimenopausal women and those with prevalent CVD. Outcomes included incident coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, heart failure (HF), and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) (CHD or stroke). We estimated the risk associated with early (<45 years) compared with normal-age menopause using Cox proportional hazards models. Covariates included age, race/ethnicity, education, BMI, blood pressure, cholesterol, smoking, alcohol consumption, antihypertensive medication, lipid-lowering medication, hormone therapy use, and pregnancy history.

RESULTS

We included 9,374 postmenopausal women for a median follow-up of 15 years. We observed 1,068 CHD, 659 stroke, 1,412 HF, and 1,567 ASCVD events. T2DM significantly modified the effect of early menopause on CVD risk. Adjusted hazard ratios for early menopause and the outcomes were greater in women with T2DM versus those without (CHD 1.15 [95% CI 1.00, 1.33] vs. 1.09 [1.03, 1.15]; stroke 1.21 [1.04, 1.40] vs. 1.10 [1.04, 1.16]; ASCVD 1.29 [1.09, 1.51] vs. 1.10 [1.04, 1.17]; HF 1.18 [1.00, 1.39] vs. 1.09 [1.03, 1.16]). The modifying effect of T2DM on the association between early menopause and ASCVD was only statistically significant in Black compared with White women.

CONCLUSIONS

Early menopause was associated with an increased risk for CVD in postmenopausal women. T2DM may further augment the risk, particularly in Black women.

Selection of preoperative stress electrocardiography test for appropriate patients with non-small cell lung cancer

OBJECTIVE

Lobectomy is an established surgical procedure for treating non-small cell lung cancer; however, it significantly impacts postoperative cardiac function. The stress electrocardiography test is relatively easy to perform and is used to confirm the presence of coronary artery stenotic lesions. However, it has a low pre-test probability and may yield many false positives. We examined the factors that would enable the appropriate selection of patients for stress electrocardiography as a preoperative cardiovascular examination preceding lobectomy for non-small cell lung cancer.

METHODS

From June 2016 to July 2018, 240 patients at our institution who underwent stress electrocardiography before lobectomy for primary lung cancer were included in this study. Clinical information was extracted from electronic medical records and evaluated retrospectively. Smoking history, diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and ischemic heart disease were considered risk factors for coronary artery stenosis. We determined the coronary risk factors that were applicable to each participant and calculated the total number of coronary risk factors as a risk score.

RESULTS

Patients with coronary risk factor scores of ≥ 3 were significantly more likely to have abnormal stress electrocardiography results. In addition, these patients also underwent more comprehensive examinations to identify coronary diseases. There were no patients with complications that could be attributed to ischemic heart disease.

CONCLUSION

Stress electrocardiography may be more useful before lobectomy in non-small cell lung cancer patients if the patients are appropriately selected, with the test utilized mainly in patients with coronary risk factor scores of ≥ 3.

Relationship between Oral Bacterial Count and Postoperative Complications among Patients with Cardiovascular Disease Treated by Surgery: A Retrospective Cohort Study

In this retrospective observational study, we evaluated the relationship between perioperative oral bacterial counts and postoperative complications in cardiovascular disease (CVD) patients. From April 2012 to December 2018, all patients scheduled for surgery received perioperative oral management (POM) by oral specialists at a single center. Tongue dorsum bacterial counts were measured on the pre-hospitalization day, preoperatively, and postoperatively. Background data were collected retrospectively. Among the 470 consecutive patients, the postoperative complication incidence rate was 10.4% (pericardial fluid storage, n = 21; postoperative pneumonia, n = 13; surgical site infection, n = 9; mediastinitis, n = 2; and seroma, postoperative infective endocarditis, lung torsion, and pericardial effusion, n = 1 each). Oral bacterial counts were significantly higher in the pre-hospitalization than in the pre- and postoperative samples (p < 0.05). Sex, cerebrovascular disease, and operation time differed significantly between complications and no-complications groups (p < 0.05). Multivariate analysis with propensity score adjustment showed a significant association between postoperative oral bacterial count and postoperative complications (odds ratio 1.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.00–1.60; p = 0.05). Since the development of cardiovascular complications is a multifactorial process, the present study cannot show that POM reduces complications but indicates POM may prevent complications in CVD patients.

Developing a cognitive dysfunction risk score for use with opioid-dependent persons in drug treatment

BACKGROUND

Cognitive dysfunction is common in persons seeking medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD) and may hinder many addiction-related services. Brief but accurate screening measures are needed to efficiently assess cognitive dysfunction in these resource-limited settings. The study aimed to develop a brief predictive risk score tailored for use among patients in drug treatment.

METHODS

The present study examined predictors of mild cognitive impairment (MCI), objectively assessed via the NIH Toolbox, among 173 patients receiving methadone as MOUD at an urban New England drug treatment facility. Predictors of MCI were identified in one subsample using demographic characteristics, medical chart data, and selected items from the Brief Inventory of Neuro-Cognitive Impairment (BINI). Predictors were cross-validated in a second subsample using logistic regression. Receiver operating curve (ROC) analyses determined an optimal cut-off score for detecting MCI.

RESULTS

A cognitive dysfunction risk score (CDRS) was calculated from patient demographics (age 50+, non-White ethnicity, less than high school education), medical and substance use chart data (history of head injury, overdose, psychiatric diagnosis, past year polysubstance use), and selected self-report items (BINI). The CDRS discriminated acceptably well, with a ROC curve area of 70.6 %, and correctly identified 78 % of MCI cases (sensitivity = 87.5 %; specificity = 55.6 %).

CONCLUSIONS

The CDRS identified patients with cognitive challenges at a level likely to impede treatment engagement and/or key outcomes. The CDRS may assist in efficiently identifying patients with cognitive dysfunction while requiring minimal training and resources. Larger validation studies are needed in other clinical settings.

Prediction models for atrial fibrillation applicable in the community: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Aims

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmia associated with an increased stroke risk. The use of multivariable prediction models could result in more efficient primary AF screening by selecting at-risk individuals. We aimed to determine which model may be best suitable for increasing efficiency of future primary AF screening efforts.

Methods and results

We performed a systematic review on multivariable models derived, validated, and/or augmented for AF prediction in community cohorts using Pubmed, Embase, and CINAHL (Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature) through 1 August 2019. We performed meta-analysis of model discrimination with the summary C-statistic as the primary expression of associations using a random effects model. In case of high heterogeneity, we calculated a 95% prediction interval. We used the CHARMS (Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies) checklist for risk of bias assessment. We included 27 studies with a total of 2 978 659 unique participants among 20 cohorts with mean age ranging from 42 to 76 years. We identified 21 risk models used for incident AF risk in community cohorts. Three models showed significant summary discrimination despite high heterogeneity: CHARGE-AF (Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology) [summary C-statistic 0.71; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.66–0.76], FHS-AF (Framingham Heart Study risk score for AF) (summary C-statistic 0.70; 95% CI 0.64–0.76), and CHA₂DS₂-VASc (summary C-statistic 0.69; 95% CI 0.64–0.74). Of these, CHARGE-AF and FHS-AF had originally been derived for AF incidence prediction. Only CHARGE-AF, which comprises easily obtainable measurements and medical history elements, showed significant summary discrimination among cohorts that had applied a uniform (5-year) risk prediction window.

Conclusion

CHARGE-AF appeared most suitable for primary screening purposes in terms of performance and applicability in older community cohorts of predominantly European descent.

Objective Sleep Efficiency Predicts Cardiovascular Disease in a Community Population: The Sleep Heart Health Study

Background There was little evidence about the role of objective sleep efficiency (SE) in the incidence of major cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. The purpose of this study was to investigate the correlation between objective SE and CVD based on polysomnography. Methods and Results A total of 3810 participants from the SHHS (Sleep Heart Health Study) were selected in the current study. CVD was assessed during an almost 11-year follow-up period. The primary composite cardiovascular outcome was major adverse cardiovascular events, defined as CVD mortality, congestive heart failure, myocardial infarction, and stroke. The secondary composite cardiovascular outcome was major adverse cardiovascular event plus revascularization. Objective measured SE, including SE and wake after sleep onset, was based on in-home polysomnography records. Cox regression analysis was used to explore the association between SE and CVD. After multivariate Cox regression analysis, poor SE (<80%) was significantly associated with primary (hazard ratio [HR], 1.338; 95% CI, 1.025-1.745; P=0.032) and secondary composite cardiovascular outcomes (HR, 1.250; 95% CI, 1.027-1.521; P=0.026); it was also found to be a predictor of CVD mortality (HR, 1.887; 95% CI, 1.224-2.909; P=0.004). Moreover, wake after sleep onset of fourth quartile (>78.0 minutes) was closely correlated with primary (HR, 1.436; 95% CI, 1.066-1.934; P=0.017), secondary composite cardiovascular outcomes (HR, 1.374; 95% CI, 1.103-1.712; P=0.005), and CVD mortality (HR, 2.240; 95% CI, 1.377-3.642; P=0.001). Conclusions Poor SE and long wake after sleep onset, objectively measured by polysomnography, were associated with the increased risk of incident CVD.

Effects of ultrasound technology advances on measurement of carotid intima-media thickness: A review

In this review, we describe how technological advances in ultrasound imaging related to transducer construction and image processing fundamentally alter generation of ultrasound images to produce better quality images with higher resolution. However, carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) measurements made from images acquired on modern ultrasound systems are not comparable to historical population nomograms that were used to determine wall thickness thresholds that inform atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk. Because it is nearly impossible to replicate instrumentation settings that were used to create the reference carotid IMT nomograms and to place an individual's carotid IMT value in or above a clinically relevant percentile, carotid IMT measurements have a very limited role in clinical medicine, but remain a useful research tool when instrumentation, presets, image acquisition, and measurements can be standardized. In addition to new validation studies, it would be useful for the ultrasound imaging community to reach a consensus regarding technical aspects of ultrasound imaging acquisition, processing, and display for blood vessels so standard presets and imaging approaches could reliably yield the same measurements.

Monitoring the Effects of Hypolipidemic Treatment in Children with Familial Hypercholesterolemia in Poland

Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) is the most common monogenic autosomal dominant disorder. FH results in an increased cardiovascular mortality rate. However, cardiovascular risk control factors enable the avoidance of approximately 80% of strokes and cardiovascular diseases. Therefore, early detection and implementation of lipid-lowering treatment is essential. In the present study, 57 pediatric patients aged 9.57 ± 3.26 years with FH were enrolled in the study. Researchers checked the lipid profile and performed the ultrasound imaging including intima-media thickness (IMT) measurement and echo (e)-tracking in the study group. Patients were treated with a low-cholesterol diet solely or along with pharmacological treatment with statins. Subsequently, patients were monitored for 12 months. The positive results of dietary treatment were observed in 40 patients. The efficacy of 12 months of nutritional therapy along with pharmacological treatment was reported in 27 patients. We observed a significant decrease in the carotid beta index stiffness and an insignificant decrease in the IMT in the group of patients treated with statins. The obtained data show that statin therapy in children with FH allow for the reduction of the degree of atherosclerotic vessel changes.

Chronic Non-Communicable Disease Risk Calculators - An Overview, Part II

The aim of this review was to identify the different risk assessment tools that stratify the individual's risk of four of the eight leading causes of death: stroke, ischaemic heart diseases, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and dementia. It follows part I, which summarized the risk assessment tools for the other four leading causes of death (breast cancer, lung cancer, colorectal cancer and osteoporosis). As in part I, the different tools were compared by their variables and validation criteria and an overview table was designed for each illness. The tables facilitate the choice of the adequate risk assessment tool for the individual patient in order to estimate the risk of developing an NCD. This could guide treating physicians in the decision-making process about completing diagnostics for early detection and, if necessary, treatment, such that the patient's quality of life can be preserved and costs to the health care system are minimal.

Restless Leg Syndrome and Objectively-Measured Atherosclerosis in the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging

BACKGROUND

Previous studies suggest associations between restless leg syndrome (RLS) and atherosclerosis, but these have primarily been based upon subjective atherosclerotic measures.

OBJECTIVE

We evaluated associations between RLS and an objective indicator of atherosclerosis, namely carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT).

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study among 30,097 Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging (CLSA) participants, we used a four-item questionnaire to screen for probable-RLS. cIMT was measured at the bifurcation of the common carotid artery. Associations were tested with linear regression adjusting for age, sex, ferritin, pulmonary disease, smoking, alcohol, physical activity, anxiety, depression, and other sleep diagnoses.

RESULTS

Among 26,304 included participants, 2047 (7.8%) had probable-RLS. Mean cIMT was higher (0.755 ± 0.17 vs 0.736 ± 0.17, P < 0.001) in those with RLS, even after excluding those without prior atherosclerotic diseases (0.740 ± 0.17 vs 0.723 ± 0.16, P = 0.016).

CONCLUSION

RLS is associated with objective measures of atherosclerosis. © 2020 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Cardiometabolic risk prediction algorithms for young people with psychosis: a systematic review and exploratory analysis

OBJECTIVE

Cardiometabolic risk prediction algorithms are common in clinical practice. Young people with psychosis are at high risk for developing cardiometabolic disorders. We aimed to examine whether existing cardiometabolic risk prediction algorithms are suitable for young people with psychosis.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and narrative synthesis of studies reporting the development and validation of cardiometabolic risk prediction algorithms for general or psychiatric populations. Furthermore, we used data from 505 participants with or at risk of psychosis at age 18 years in the ALSPAC birth cohort, to explore the performance of three algorithms (QDiabetes, QRISK3 and PRIMROSE) highlighted as potentially suitable. We repeated analyses after artificially increasing participant age to the mean age of the original algorithm studies to examine the impact of age on predictive performance.

RESULTS

We screened 7820 results, including 110 studies. All algorithms were developed in relatively older participants, and most were at high risk of bias. Three studies (QDiabetes, QRISK3 and PRIMROSE) featured psychiatric predictors. Age was more strongly weighted than other risk factors in each algorithm. In our exploratory analysis, calibration plots for all three algorithms implied a consistent systematic underprediction of cardiometabolic risk in the younger sample. After increasing participant age, calibration plots were markedly improved.

CONCLUSION

Existing cardiometabolic risk prediction algorithms cannot be recommended for young people with or at risk of psychosis. Existing algorithms may underpredict risk in young people, even in the face of other high-risk features. Recalibration of existing algorithms or a new tailored algorithm for the population is required.

Distinctive body perception mechanisms in high versus low symptom reporters: A neurophysiological model for medically-unexplained symptoms

OBJECTIVE

The neurophysiological processes involved in the generation of medically-unexplained symptoms (MUS) remain unclear. This study tested three assumptions of the perception-filter model contributing to MUS: (I.) increased bodily signal strength (II.) decreased filter function, (III.) increased perception.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional, observational study, trait MUS were assessed by a web-based survey (N = 486). The upper and lower decile were identified as extreme groups of high (HSR; n = 29; 26 women; Mage = 26.0 years) and low symptom reporters (LSR; n = 29; 21 women; Mage = 28.4 years). Mean heart rate (HR) and heart rate variability (HRV), and cortisol awakening response (CAR) were assessed as indicators of bodily signal strength (I.). Heartbeat-evoked potentials (HEPs) were assessed during rest and a heartbeat perception task. HEPs reflect attentional resources allocated towards heartbeats and served as index of filter function (II.). Interoceptive accuracy (IAc) in heartbeat perception was assessed as an indicator of perception (III.).

RESULTS

HSR showed higher HR and lower HRV (RMSSD) than LSR (I.), but no differences in CAR. HSR exhibited a stronger increase of HEPs when attention was focused on heartbeats than LSR (II.); there were no group differences in IAc (III.).

CONCLUSIONS

The perception-filter model was partially confirmed in that HSR showed altered bodily signals suggesting higher sympathetic activity (I.); higher HEP increases indicated increased filter function for bodily signals (II.). As more attentional resources are mobilized to process heartbeats, but perception accuracy remains unchanged (III.), this overflow could be responsible for detecting minor bodily changes associated with MUS.

Preventing undesirable behavior of intelligent machines

Intelligent machines using machine learning algorithms are ubiquitous, ranging from simple data analysis and pattern recognition tools to complex systems that achieve superhuman performance on various tasks. Ensuring that they do not exhibit undesirable behavior-that they do not, for example, cause harm to humans-is therefore a pressing problem. We propose a general and flexible framework for designing machine learning algorithms. This framework simplifies the problem of specifying and regulating undesirable behavior. To show the viability of this framework, we used it to create machine learning algorithms that precluded the dangerous behavior caused by standard machine learning algorithms in our experiments. Our framework for designing machine learning algorithms simplifies the safe and responsible application of machine learning.

Racial Differences in Malignant Left Ventricular Hypertrophy and Incidence of Heart Failure: A Multicohort Study

BACKGROUND

A malignant subphenotype of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) has been described, in which minimal elevations in cardiac biomarkers identify individuals with LVH at high risk for developing heart failure (HF). We tested the hypothesis that a higher prevalence of malignant LVH among blacks may contribute to racial disparities in HF risk.

METHODS

Participants (n=15 710) without prevalent cardiovascular disease were pooled from 3 population-based cohort studies, the ARIC Study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities), the DHS (Dallas Heart Study), and the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). Participants were classified into 3 groups: those without ECG-LVH, those with ECG-LVH and normal biomarkers (hs-cTnT (high sensitivity cardiac troponin-T) <6 ng/L and NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) <100 pg/mL), and those with ECG-LVH and abnormal levels of either biomarker (malignant LVH). The outcome was incident HF.

RESULTS

Over the 10-year follow-up period, HF occurred in 512 (3.3%) participants, with 5.2% in black men, 3.8% in white men, 3.2% in black women, and 2.2% in white women. The prevalence of malignant LVH was 3-fold higher among black men and women versus white men and women. Compared with participants without LVH, the adjusted hazard ratio for HF was 2.8 (95% CI, 2.1-3.5) in those with malignant LVH and 0.9 (95% CI, 0.6-1.5) in those with LVH and normal biomarkers, with similar findings in each race/sex subgroup. Mediation analyses indicated that 33% of excess hazard for HF among black men and 11% of the excess hazard among black women was explained by the higher prevalence of malignant LVH in blacks. Of black men who developed HF, 30.8% had malignant LVH at baseline, with a corresponding population attributable fraction of 0.21. The proportion of HF cases occurring among those with malignant LVH, and the corresponding population attributable fraction, were intermediate and similar among black women and white men and lowest among white women.

CONCLUSIONS

A higher prevalence of malignant LVH may in part explain the higher risk of HF among blacks versus whites. Strategies to prevent development or attenuate risk associated with malignant LVH should be investigated as a strategy to lower HF risk and mitigate racial disparities.

Metabolomic Pattern Predicts Incident Coronary Heart Disease

Objective- Alterations in the serum metabolome may be detectable in at-risk individuals before the onset of coronary heart disease (CHD). Identifying metabolomic signatures associated with CHD may provide insight into disease pathophysiology and prevention. Approach and Results- Metabolomic profiling (chromatography-mass spectrometry) was performed in 2232 African Americans and 1366 European Americans from the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities). We applied Cox regression with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator to select metabolites associated with incident CHD. A metabolite risk score was constructed to evaluate whether the metabolite risk score predicted CHD risk beyond traditional risk factors. After 30 years of follow-up, we observed 633 incident CHD cases. Thirty-two metabolites were selected by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator to be associated with CHD, and 19 of the 32 showed significant individual associations with CHD, including a sugar substitute, erythritol. Theophylline (hazard ratio [95% CI] =1.16 [1.09-1.25]) and gamma-linolenic acid (hazard ratio [95% CI] =0.89 [0.81-0.97]) showed the greatest positive and negative associations with CHD, respectively. A 1 SD greater standardized metabolite risk score was associated with a 1.37-fold higher risk of CHD (hazard ratio [95% CI] =1.37 [1.27-1.47]). Adding the metabolite risk score to the traditional risk factors significantly improved model predictive performance (30-year risk prediction: Δ C statistics [95% CI] =0.016 [0.008-0.024], continuous net reclassification index [95% CI] =0.522 [0.480-0.556], integrated discrimination index [95% CI] =0.038 [0.019-0.065]). Conclusions- We identified 19 metabolites from known and novel metabolic pathways that collectively improved CHD risk prediction. Visual Overview- An online visual overview is available for this article.

A hybrid neural network model for predicting kidney disease in hypertension patients based on electronic health records

Background

Disease prediction based on Electronic Health Records (EHR) has become one hot research topic in biomedical community. Existing work mainly focuses on the prediction of one target disease, and little work is proposed for multiple associated diseases prediction. Meanwhile, a piece of EHR usually contains two main information: the textual description and physical indicators. However, existing work largely adopts statistical models with discrete features from numerical physical indicators in EHR, and fails to make full use of textual description information.

Methods

In this paper, we study the problem of kidney disease prediction in hypertension patients by using neural network model. Specifically, we first model the prediction problem as a binary classification task. Then we propose a hybrid neural network which incorporates Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) and Autoencoder networks to fully capture the information in EHR.

Results

We construct a dataset based on a large number of raw EHR data. The dataset consists of totally 35,332 records from hypertension patients. Experimental results show that the proposed neural model achieves 89.7% accuracy for the task.

Conclusions

A hybrid neural network model was presented. Based on the constructed dataset, the comparison results of different models demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed neural model. The proposed model outperformed traditional statistical models with discrete features and neural baseline systems.

Association of daytime napping with incident cardiovascular disease in a community-based population

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between self-reported daytime napping habits and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a large community-based study population.

METHODS

Of the 4170 participants, 55.5% were women and the mean age was 63.1 years (SD, 11.0 years). CVD included cardiovascular death, congestive heart failure, myocardial infarction, stroke, angina, and revascularization and was defined as the first confirmed incidence of CVD during an average 11-year follow-up. Self-reported daytime napping habits were recorded using baseline questionnaires. Backward stepwise Cox regression analysis was used to explore the relationship between CVD and napping habits.

RESULTS

In this study, 914 participants with CVD (21.9%) were observed. Participants who took regular long naps had a higher prevalence of incident CVD than did those who took regular short naps, irregular naps, or no naps (34.5% vs. 28.4%, 22.4%, 16.6%, respectively; P < 0.001). In the final backward stepwise Cox regression model, regular long naps were found to be associated with CVD (HR: 1.403, 95% CI: 1.079-1.825, P = 0.012).

CONCLUSIONS

Regular long daytime napping was an independent risk factor for CVD. Healthy sleep habits may promote human health and prevent CVD.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00005275.

Serum Vitamin D Concentrations and Cognitive Change Over 20 Years: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Neurocognitive Study

BACKGROUND/AIMS

25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentrations have been associated with cognitive decline and incident dementia in elderly populations; however, these relationships are susceptible to reverse causation. Less is known about the association of midlife 25(OH)D with long-term cognitive decline.

METHODS

This was a prospective cohort study of 13,044 participants (mean age 57 years at baseline) in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. 25(OH)D was measured from serum collected at baseline (1990-1992) using liquid chromatography tandem high-sensitivity mass spectrometry. Cognition was assessed using 3 neuropsychological tests at 3 time points, which were combined into a composite cognitive Z-score. Multivariable-adjusted linear mixed-effects models with random intercepts and slopes were used to estimate associations between 25(OH)D and cognitive change over 20 years.

RESULTS

Compared to persons with sufficient 25(OH)D (≥30 ng/mL), those with deficient (< 20 ng/mL) and intermediate (20-< 30 ng/mL) 25(OH)D concentrations had similar cognitive decline in composite cognitive Z-scores (deficient versus sufficient: -0.035 [95% CI -0.104 to 0.033] and intermediate versus sufficient: -0.029 [95% CI -0.080 to 0.023]).

CONCLUSIONS

Lower concentrations of 25(OH)D measured in midlife were not significantly associated with more rapid cognitive decline over a 20-year follow-up period. The results of this prospective study are less susceptible to reverse causation than prior studies.

Establishment and validation of a prediction model for ischemic stroke risks in patients with type 2 diabetes

AIMS

A risk scoring system for predicting ischemic stroke incidence may identify type 2 diabetes patients at high risk for ischemic stroke who can benefit from preventive intervention programs. Such a risk scoring system can serve as a benchmark to test novel putative risk factors.

METHODS

The study adopted a retrospective cohort, including 28,124 Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes aged 30-84 years during 2001-2004. Participants were randomly assigned to the derivation and validation sets at a 2:1 ratio. Cox's proportional hazard regression model was used to identify risk factors of ischemic stroke incidence in the derivation set. And then the steps proposed by the Framingham Heart Study for establishing an ischemic stroke prediction model with a scoring system was used.

RESULTS

Among 9374 patients in the validation set, 1076 subjects (11.48%) developed ischemic stroke with a mean follow up period of 8.0 years. We identified the following risk factors: age, gender, smoking habit, duration of type 2 diabetes, blood pressure, HbA1c level, total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein ratio, creatinine, fasting plasma glucose variation (FPG-CV), arterial embolism and thrombosis, diabetes retinopathy, hypoglycemia, anti-diabetes medication use, and cardiovascular medication. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve of the 3-year, 5-year, and 8-year ischemic stroke incidence risks were 0.72, 0.71, and 0.68 for the validation set, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This proposed ischemic stroke incidence risk prediction model is the first model established for Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes recruited from nationwide clinical settings.

Prediction of the risk of mortality using risk score in patients with coronary heart disease

Background

The aim of the study is to develop risk scores with traditional factors for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality among coronary heart disease (CHD) patients.

Methods and Results

We performed a prospective cohort study of 1911 CHD patients aged 40 and older. Cox models were used to estimate the association of traditional factors [sex, age, fasting blood glucose (FBG), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), blood pressure (BP), and cigarette use] and risk scores with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. During a mean follow-up of 4.9 years, 232 deaths were identified, 159 of which were cardiovascular-related. Both 4-year and whole follow-up data showed age, sex, HDL-C, LDL-C, and FBG were significantly associated with the risk of mortality, while BP and smoking were not significant predictors in all models. We incorporated age, sex, FBG, HDL-C, and LDL-C to establish risk scores for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in the 4-year and whole follow-up study. These risk scores were positively associated with the risk of death as quartiles and continuous variables. Assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs), these risk scores demonstrated strong discriminatory capacity, from 0.744 to 0.763; and the utility of these scores was confirmed with AUROCs from 0.736 to 0.756 (all P<0.001) in a validation cohort of 1506 CHD patients with a mean follow-up of 4.7 years.

Conclusions

These simple risk score assessments, including a set of traditional risk factors, might improve the identification of high-risk CHD patients for a more intensive secondary prevention treatment.

Carotid Intima-Media Thickness as a Cardiovascular Risk Factor and Imaging Pathway of Atherosclerosis

Assessment of carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) has emerged as a simple and noninvasive technique for measuring atherosclerotic burden. Although serum biomarkers have been linked to the risk of developing atherosclerosis, carotid IMT has the theoretical advantage of directly visualizing a final consequence of the disease itself, namely atherosclerosis in the vessel wall. The current widespread application of carotid IMT measurements has been based on the validity, standardization, and reproducibility of the measurement and the evidence that an increased carotid IMT can be regarded as an attractive biomarker of atherosclerosis and of increased cardiovascular risk, potentially useful as a therapeutic target in those at increased cardiovascular risk. The utilization of carotid IMT measurements as a surrogate end point in clinical trials evaluating a specific drug intervention may result in considerably smaller efforts and costs than when using a hard end point such as myocardial infarction, stroke, or death. In addition, the use of carotid IMT measurement as a screening tool in clinical practice in association with traditional risk factors may improve risk classification and decisions regarding therapeutic interventions. However, although carotid IMT may be correlated with clinical outcomes, changes in surrogate end points over time that result from a particular therapy may not necessarily be predictive of future cardiovascular events. Therefore, it is necessary to perform more clinical studies to clearly define the relationship between the modifications in carotid IMT and the changes in cardiovascular events. In an era of economic burden, when there is a clear combination of limited resources with high expense of innovation in drug development, carotid IMT represents a reasonable, worthwhile surrogate trial end point with a history of nearly 30 years of technical progress and clinical research. Current data strongly suggest that carotid IMT will continue to successfully be used as a valuable tool in clinical atherosclerosis research.

An alternative approach identified optimal risk thresholds for treatment indication: an illustration in coronary heart disease

OBJECTIVES

Treatment thresholds based on risk predictions can be optimized by considering various health (economic) outcomes and performing marginal analyses, but this is rarely performed. We demonstrate a general approach to identify treatment thresholds optimizing individual health (economic) outcomes, illustrated for statin treatment based on 10-year coronary heart disease (CHD) risk predicted by the Framingham risk score.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

Creating a health economic model for a risk-based prevention strategy, risk thresholds can be evaluated on several outcomes of interest. Selecting an appropriate threshold range and decrement size for the thresholds and adapting the health economic model accordingly, outcomes can be calculated for each risk threshold. A stepwise, or marginal, comparison of clinical as well as health economic outcomes, that is, comparing outcomes using a specific threshold to outcomes of the former threshold while gradually lowering the threshold, then takes into account the balance between additional numbers of individuals treated and their outcomes (additional health effects and costs). In our illustration, using a Markov model for CHD, we evaluated risk thresholds by gradually lowering thresholds from 20% to 0%.

RESULTS

This approach can be applied to identify optimal risk thresholds on any outcome, such as to limit complications, maximize health outcomes, or optimize cost-effectiveness. In our illustration, keeping the population-level fraction of statin-induced complications <10% resulted in thresholds of T = 6% (men) and T = 2% (women). Lowering the threshold and comparing quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) after each 1% decrease, QALYs were gained down to T = 1% (men) and T = 0% (women). Also accounting for costs, net health benefits were favorable down to T = 3% (men) and T = 6% (women).

CONCLUSION

Using a stepwise risk-based approach to threshold optimization allows for preventive strategies that optimize outcomes. Presenting this comprehensive overview of outcomes will better inform decision makers when defining a treatment threshold.

Galectin-3 and incidence of atrial fibrillation: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study

BACKGROUND

Galectin-3, a β-galactoside binding lectin involved in important regulatory roles in adhesion, inflammation, immunity, and fibrosis, may be relevant to atrial fibrillation (AF) etiology.

METHODS

We included 8,436 participants free of AF at baseline (1996-1998) and with measures of plasma galectin-3 from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study. We ascertained incident AF through 2013 from study visit electrocardiograms, hospitalizations, and death certificates. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for AF risk factors plus incident heart failure (HF) and coronary heart disease (CHD), were used to estimate hazard ratios for the association between galectin-3 and incident AF.

RESULTS

The mean age (SD) of participants was 62.6 (5.6) years, and the sample was comprised of 58.7% women and 21.2% blacks. During a median follow-up of 15.7 years, 1,185 incident cases of AF were observed. After adjusting for AF risk factors, participants with galectin-3 levels ≥90th percentile (19.5 ng/mL) had a significantly higher risk of incident AF when compared with the lowest quartile (4.4-11.9 ng/mL), with hazard ratios (95% CI) of 1.40 (1.04-1.89) for the 90th-<95th percentile and 1.51 (1.11-2.06) for the 95th-100th percentile. This association was attenuated and no longer statistically significant after accounting for incident CHD and HF as time-dependent variables.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated plasma galectin-3 is associated with increased risk of incident AF. Galectin-3 may increase AF risk via pathways involving CHD and HF.

Endothelial Function Is Impaired in Patients Receiving Antihypertensive Drug Treatment Regardless of Blood Pressure Level: FMD-J Study (Flow-Mediated Dilation Japan)

Hypertension is associated with endothelial dysfunction. Blood pressure significantly correlates with endothelial function in antihypertensive drug-naive subjects. The purpose of this study was to determine whether treatment status affects the relationship between blood pressure and endothelial function. We measured flow-mediated vasodilation (FMD) in 2297 subjects, including 1822 antihypertensive drug-naive subjects and 475 treated hypertensive patients. FMD significantly decreased in relation to increase in systolic blood pressure (8.2±3.1% in subjects with systolic blood pressure of <120 mm Hg, 7.5±2.8% for 120-129 mm Hg, 7.1±2.8% for 130-139 mm Hg, and 6.7±2.6% for ≥140 mm Hg; P<0.001). Systolic blood pressure was independently associated with FMD in untreated subjects. In contrast, there was no significant relationship between systolic blood pressure and FMD in treated hypertensive patients (4.6±3.1% in treated hypertensives with systolic blood pressure of <120 mm Hg, 4.8±2.7% for 120-129 mm Hg, 4.9±2.8% for 130-139 mm Hg, and 4.5±2.3% for ≥140 mm Hg; P=0.77). Propensity score matching analysis revealed that the prevalence of endothelial dysfunction defined as FMD of less than the division point for the lowest tertile, and the middle tertile of FMD was significantly higher in treated hypertensive patients than in untreated subjects in all systolic blood pressure categories. Endothelial function assessed by FMD was impaired regardless of the level of blood pressure achieved by antihypertensive drug treatment in hypertensive patients.

Migraine Headache and Long-Term Cardiovascular Outcomes: An Extended Follow-Up of the Women's Ischemia Syndrome Evaluation

BACKGROUND

The association between migraine headache and cardiovascular events has been inconsistent. This study determines the long-term risk of cardiovascular events among women with and without a history of migraine headache who were under evaluation for suspected myocardial ischemia in the Women's Ischemia Syndrome Evaluation (WISE).

METHODS

The WISE is a National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute-sponsored prospective, multicenter study that aims to improve myocardial ischemia evaluation in women. A total of 936 women presenting with symptoms of myocardial ischemia underwent structured data collection and coronary angiography. Information pertaining to migraine headache was available in 917 women. All-cause mortality data were available on all women for a median of 9.5 years, and nonfatal cardiovascular event data were available on 888 women for a median of 6.5 years.

RESULTS

A total of 224 (24.4%) women reported a history of migraine headache. Compared with women who did not report a history of migraine headache, women with a history of migraine headache had an increased adjusted risk of cardiovascular event (cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, heart failure, or stroke) (hazard ratio 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.75) at a median follow-up of 6.5 years. This result was driven mainly by a twofold increase in the risk of stroke (hazard ratio 2.33; 95% confidence interval, 1.16-4.68).

CONCLUSION

Among women being evaluated for ischemic heart disease, those reporting a history of migraine headache had increased risk of future cardiovascular events on long-term follow-up. This risk was primarily driven by a more-than twofold increase in the risk of stroke.

Synergy of circulating miR-212 with markers for cardiovascular risks to enhance estimation of atherosclerosis presence

Synergy of specific microRNAs (miRNAs) with cardiovascular risk factors to estimate atherosclerosis presence in ischemic stroke patients has not been investigated. The present study aimed to identify atherosclerosis-related circulating miRNAs and to evaluate interaction with other cardiovascular markers to improve the estimation of atherosclerosis presence. We performed a miRNA profiling study using serum of 15 patients with acute ischemic stroke who were classified by the presence of no (n = 8) or severe (n = 7) stenosis on intracranial and extracranial vessels, which identified miR-212, -372, -454, and -744 as miRNAs related with atherosclerosis presence. Of the 4 miRNAs, only miR-212 showed a significant increase in expression in atherosclerosis patients in a validation study (atherosclerotic patients, n = 32, non-atherosclerotic patients, n = 33). Hemoglobin A1c, a high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and lipoprotein(a), both established risk markers, were independently related with atherosclerosis presence in the validation population. miR-212 enhanced the accuracy of atherosclerosis presence by the three existing markers (three markers, 78.5%; three markers+miR-212, 84.6%, P<0.05) and significantly added to the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (three markers, 0.8258; three markers+miR-212, 0.8646, P<0.05). The inclusion of miR-212 increased the reclassification index calculated using net reclassification improvement (0.4527, P<0.05) and integrated discrimination improvement (0.0737, P<0.05). We identified circulating miR-212 as a novel marker of atherosclerosis. miR-212 enhanced the estimation of atherosclerosis presence in combination with hemoglobin A1c, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and lipoprotein(a). Thus, miR-212 is expected to improve the estimation of atherosclerosis using peripheral blood of patients.

Oral health and cardiovascular disease risk in a cohort of periodontitis patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The aim of this study was to determine whether oral health is uniformly associated with three different cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), including myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and heart failure (HF), which has not been studied previously.

METHODS

A full mouth investigation was performed in 8999 individuals referred to a specialized periodontology clinic between 1979 and 2012. The number of deepened pockets (NDP), number of teeth (NT), and bleeding on probing (BOP) were investigated. Incident CVD diagnosis was obtained from the Swedish cause of death and the hospital discharge registers.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up time of 15.8 years (153,103 person years at risk), 1338 incident cases of fatal/non-fatal CVD occurred (672 fatal/non-fatal MI, 545 stroke and 302 HF). When NT, BOP and NDP were all included in the same model with age, sex, smoking, calendar time, and education level, NT and NDP, but not BOP, were significantly related to future CVD (combined end-point, p = 0.0003 for NT and p = 0.007 for NDP). In similar analyses of 3 separate CVD outcomes, NT was significantly related to MI, with an incidence rate ratio (IRR) for a given interquartile range change of 0.90 (95% CI 0.82-0.99) and to HF, with an IRR of 0.87 (95% CI 0.77-0.99). However, NT was not significantly related to stroke. BOP and NDP were not significantly related to any of the three separate CVD outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Oral health, mainly represented by NT, was related to incident MI and HF, but not to incident stroke. Therefore, oral health does not seem to relate to all major CV disorders in a similar fashion.

Smoking and Cardiac Structure and Function in the Elderly: The ARIC Study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities)

BACKGROUND

Cigarette smoking has been associated with higher risk of incident heart failure independent of coronary artery disease, but the impact of tobacco use on cardiac structure and function in the general population is uncertain. This study evaluated the relationship between smoking and echocardiographic measures in a large elderly cohort.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We studied 4580 participants free of overt coronary artery disease, heart failure, and significant valvular disease from the fifth visit of the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) who underwent transthoracic echocardiography. Participants were classified into 3 categories based on self-reported smoking habits: never (43.2%), former (50.5%), and current smokers (6.3%). Pack-years and years of smoking were also estimated. Compared with never smokers, current smokers had greater left ventricular (LV) mass index (80.4±1.1 versus 76.7±0.4 g/m(2); P<0.001), LV mass/volume ratio (1.93±0.03 versus 1.83±0.03 g/mL; P<0.001), higher prevalence of LV hypertrophy (15% versus 9%; P=0.008), and worse diastolic function, as reflected by higher E/E' ratio (11.7±0.2 versus 10.9±0.1; P<0.001), after adjusting for potential confounding factors. In contrast, former smokers showed similar echocardiographic features when compared with never smokers. Furthermore, estimated pack-years and years of smoking, measures of cumulative cigarette exposure, were associated with greater LV mass index, LV mass/volume ratio, and worse diastolic function (higher E/E' ratio) in current smokers after multivariable analysis (all P<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Active smoking and cumulative cigarette exposure were associated with subtle alterations in LV structure and function in an elderly, community-based population free of overt coronary artery disease and heart failure.

The validity of the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score for the prediction of the incidence of coronary heart disease and stroke, and total mortality

Background

Cardiovascular disease shares several risk factors with type 2 diabetes. We tested whether the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC), recently developed in a Finnish population to estimate the future risk of diabetes, would also identify individuals at high risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke, and total mortality in this same population.

Design

Independent risk factor surveys were conducted in 1987, 1992, and 1997 in Finland, comprising 8268 men and 9457 women aged 25-64 years and free of CHD and stroke at baseline. During the follow-up until the end of 2001, 699 incident acute CHD events, 324 acute stroke events, and 765 deaths occurred.

Methods

The data were analysed by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the Cox-regression model.

Results

The areas under the ROC curves (AUC) were 71% for CHD, 73% for stroke, and 68% for total mortality in men and 78, 68, and 72% in women, respectively. The addition of systolic and diastolic blood pressures, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and smoking increased the AUC values modestly (the change of the absolute values from 2.6 to 6.5%), but the additional use of plasma glucose had only a slight effect on the AUC values for CHD and stroke.

Conclusions

The FINDRISC is a reasonably good predictor of CHD, stroke and total mortality.

Cross-Sectional Positive Association of Serum Lipids and Blood Pressure With Serum Sodium Within the Normal Reference Range of 135-145 mmol/L

OBJECTIVE

Serum sodium concentration is maintained by osmoregulation within normal range of 135 to 145 mmol/L. Previous analysis of data from the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) showed association of serum sodium with the 10-year risk scores of coronary heart disease and stroke. Current study evaluated the association of within-normal-range serum sodium with cardiovascular risk factors.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Only participants who did not take cholesterol or blood pressure medications and had sodium within normal 135 to 145 mmol/L range were included (n=8615), and the cohort was stratified based on race, sex, and smoking status. Multiple linear regression analysis of data from ARIC study was performed, with adjustment for age, blood glucose, insulin, glomerular filtration rate, body mass index, waist to hip ratio, and calorie intake. The analysis showed positive associations with sodium of total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio; apolipoprotein B; and systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Increases in lipids and blood pressure associated with 10 mmol/L increase in sodium are similar to the increases associated with 7 to 10 years of aging. Analysis of sodium measurements made 3 years apart demonstrated that it is stable within 2 to 3 mmol/L, explaining its association with long-term health outcomes. Furthermore, elevated sodium promoted lipid accumulation in cultured adipocytes, suggesting direct causative effects on lipid metabolism.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum sodium concentration is a cardiovascular risk factor even within the normal reference range. Thus, decreasing sodium to the lower end of the normal range by modification of water and salt intake is a personalizable strategy for decreasing cardiovascular risks.

Utility of genetic and non-genetic risk factors in predicting coronary heart disease in Singaporean Chinese

Background Although numerous phenotype based equations for predicting risk of 'hard' coronary heart disease are available, data on the utility of genetic information for such risk prediction is lacking in Chinese populations. Design Case-control study nested within the Singapore Chinese Health Study. Methods A total of 1306 subjects comprising 836 men (267 incident cases and 569 controls) and 470 women (128 incident cases and 342 controls) were included. A Genetic Risk Score comprising 156 single nucleotide polymorphisms that have been robustly associated with coronary heart disease or its risk factors ( p < 5 × 10^-8) in at least two independent cohorts of genome-wide association studies was built. For each gender, three base models were used: recalibrated Adult Treatment Panel III (ATPIII) Model (M₁); ATP III model fitted using Singapore Chinese Health Study data (M₂) and M₃: M₂ + C-reactive protein + creatinine. Results The Genetic Risk Score was significantly associated with incident 'hard' coronary heart disease ( p for men: 1.70 × 10^-10-1.73 × 10^-9; p for women: 0.001). The inclusion of the Genetic Risk Score in the prediction models improved discrimination in both genders (c-statistics: 0.706-0.722 vs. 0.663-0.695 from base models for men; 0.788-0.790 vs. 0.765-0.773 for women). In addition, the inclusion of the Genetic Risk Score also improved risk classification with a net gain of cases being reclassified to higher risk categories (men: 12.4%-16.5%; women: 10.2% (M₃)), while not significantly reducing the classification accuracy in controls. Conclusions The Genetic Risk Score is an independent predictor for incident 'hard' coronary heart disease in our ethnic Chinese population. Inclusion of genetic factors into coronary heart disease prediction models could significantly improve risk prediction performance.

Biomarkers and degree of atherosclerosis are independently associated with incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in a primary prevention cohort: The ARIC study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Biomarkers and atherosclerosis imaging have been studied individually for association with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD); however, limited data exist on whether the biomarkers are associated with events with a similar magnitude in the presence of atherosclerosis. In this study, we assessed whether the presence of atherosclerosis as measured by carotid intima media thickness (cIMT) affects the association between biomarkers known to be associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a primary prevention cohort.

METHODS

8127 participants from the ARIC study (4th visit, 1996-1998) were stratified as having minimal, mild, or substantial atherosclerosis by cIMT. Levels of C-reactive protein, lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2, cardiac troponin T, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, lipoprotein(a), cystatin C, and urine albumin to creatinine ratio were measured in each participant. Hazard ratios were used to determine the relationship between the biomarkers and incident CHD, stroke, and CVD in each category of atherosclerosis.

RESULTS

While each of the biomarkers was significantly associated with risk of events overall, we found no significant differences noted in the strength of association of biomarkers with CHD, stroke, and CVD when analyzed by degree of atherosclerosis.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that the level of atherosclerosis does not significantly influence the association between biomarkers and CVD.

Rationale and design of the Optimal Macro-Nutrient Intake Heart Trial to Prevent Heart Disease (OMNI-Heart)

Background The DASH (Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension) diet is a carbohydrate-rich, reduced-fat diet that lowers blood pressure (BP) and LDL-cholesterol. Whether partial replacement of some carbohydrate (C) with either protein (P) or unsaturated fat (U) can further improve these and other cardiovascular (CVD) risk factors is unknown.

Methods OmniHeart is a randomized, three-period, crossover feeding study designed to compare the effects on BP and blood lipids of a carbohydrate-rich diet (CARB, similar to the DASH diet) with a diet rich in protein (PROT, predominantly from nonmeat sources) and a diet rich in unsaturated fat (UNSAT, predominantly monounsaturated). Throughout feeding (run in and the three intervention periods), participants are provided with all of their meals that meet the nutrient profile of their assigned diet. Calorie intake is adjusted to maintain weight. The target sample size is 160 (50% African-American). Participants are adults, aged 30 or older, with prehypertension or Stage 1 hypertension (systolic BP 120–159 or diastolic BP 80–99 mmHg). The primary outcome variables are systolic BP and LDL-cholesterol. Secondary outcomes are diastolic BP, HDL-cholesterol, and triglycerides. Other outcome variables are total cholesterol, apolipoproteins VLDL-apoB, VLDL-apoCIII, apolipoprotein B, non-HDL cholesterol, and lipoprotein(a), and insulin resistance, as measured by Homeostasis Model Assessment (HOMA).

Conclusions OMNI-Heart should advance our fundamental knowledge of the effects of diet on both traditional and emerging risk factors, and, in the process, guide policy makers, health care providers and the general public on the relative benefits of carbohydrate, protein, and unsaturated fat as a means to reduce CVD risk.

The impact of multiple single day blood pressure readings on cardiovascular risk estimation: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study

AIMS

The aim of this study was to determine the magnitude of change in estimated cardiovascular disease risk when multiple same day blood pressure measurements are used in estimating coronary heart disease, heart failure and stroke risks.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Black and White participants, N = 11,129, enrolled in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study (mean age 53.9 ± 5.7 (SD) years) were included. Each participant had three sitting, five supine, and six standing blood pressure measures during one day. Main outcome measures were changes in estimated coronary heart disease, heart failure and stroke risk when using the different blood pressure measures. Mean sitting, standing and supine systolic blood pressure values of the study population were 120.8 ± 18.6, 124.9 ± 20 and 124.7 ± 19.6 mmHg, respectively. The substitution of the second sitting systolic blood pressure with the third sitting systolic blood pressure (taken ∼5 min later) in two separate coronary heart disease risk models reclassified 3.3% to 5.1% of study participants. Similar substitutions for heart failure and stroke risk prediction models led to reclassification of 1.9% and 2.7% of participants respectively. When mean sitting systolic blood pressure was replaced with mean standing systolic blood pressure 5.4% to 11.6% of the participants were reclassified. Maximum upward and downward change in an individual's estimated risk was 31% and 26% respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Estimated risks of coronary heart disease, heart failure, and stroke for an individual can change significantly within a day due to changes in systolic blood pressure. Given recommendations to use estimated risk for therapeutic decisions, our study has implications for the use of a single systolic blood pressure in cardiovascular risk estimation.

Relation of longitudinal changes in body mass index with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk scores in middle-aged black and white adults: the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study

PURPOSE

We assessed whether longitudinal changes in body mass index (BMI) are positively associated with changes in 10-year American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk scores in middle-aged blacks compared to whites.

METHODS

Data were from 1691 participants enrolled in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study aged 40 years or more in 2000-2001, who had follow-up examinations 5 and 10 years later.

RESULTS

The prevalence of obesity increased from 32.3% in 2000-2001 (mean age: 42.8 years) to 41.7% in 2010-2011, higher in blacks than whites. The corresponding change in 10-year ASCVD risk was significantly higher for blacks (men: 4.5%-9.6%, women: 1.7%-5.0%) than whites (men: 2.4%-5.2%, women: 0.7%-1.6%). In 2010-2011, 57.5% of black men had ASCVD risk scores of 7.5% or more compared to white men (14.7%), black women (17.4%), and white women (1.6%). Although BMI trends were positively associated with 10-year change in ASCVD risk scores (0.07% per 1 kg/m(2) increase), it explained very little variance in risk score trends in all race-sex groups.

CONCLUSIONS

In middle-aged adults, longitudinal changes in BMI had little independent influence on changes in 10-year ASCVD risk scores as its effect may be largely mediated through ASCVD risk factors already accounted for in the risk score.

Prediction models for cardiovascular disease risk in the general population: systematic review

OBJECTIVE

 To provide an overview of prediction models for risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the general population.

DESIGN

 Systematic review.

DATA SOURCES

 Medline and Embase until June 2013.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR STUDY SELECTION

 Studies describing the development or external validation of a multivariable model for predicting CVD risk in the general population.

RESULTS

 9965 references were screened, of which 212 articles were included in the review, describing the development of 363 prediction models and 473 external validations. Most models were developed in Europe (n=167, 46%), predicted risk of fatal or non-fatal coronary heart disease (n=118, 33%) over a 10 year period (n=209, 58%). The most common predictors were smoking (n=325, 90%) and age (n=321, 88%), and most models were sex specific (n=250, 69%). Substantial heterogeneity in predictor and outcome definitions was observed between models, and important clinical and methodological information were often missing. The prediction horizon was not specified for 49 models (13%), and for 92 (25%) crucial information was missing to enable the model to be used for individual risk prediction. Only 132 developed models (36%) were externally validated and only 70 (19%) by independent investigators. Model performance was heterogeneous and measures such as discrimination and calibration were reported for only 65% and 58% of the external validations, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

 There is an excess of models predicting incident CVD in the general population. The usefulness of most of the models remains unclear owing to methodological shortcomings, incomplete presentation, and lack of external validation and model impact studies. Rather than developing yet another similar CVD risk prediction model, in this era of large datasets, future research should focus on externally validating and comparing head-to-head promising CVD risk models that already exist, on tailoring or even combining these models to local settings, and investigating whether these models can be extended by addition of new predictors.