Are we underestimating the annual risk of infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis in high-burden settings?

Persistent Mycobacterium tuberculosis bioaerosol release in a tuberculosis-endemic setting

Pioneering studies linking symptomatic disease and cough-mediated Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) release established the infectious origin of tuberculosis (TB), simultaneously informing the notion that pathology is a prerequisite for Mtb transmission. Our recent work has challenged this assumption: by sampling TB clinic attendees, we detected equivalent release of Mtb-containing bioaerosols by confirmed TB patients and individuals not receiving a TB diagnosis and observed time-dependent reduction in Mtb bioaerosol positivity during 6-month follow-up of both cohorts, irrespective of anti-TB chemotherapy. Now, we report widespread Mtb release in our TB-endemic setting: of 89 randomly recruited community members, 79.8% (71/89) produced Mtb-containing bioaerosols independently of QuantiFERON status, a standard test for Mtb exposure. Moreover, during 2-month longitudinal sampling, only 2% (1/50) were serially Mtb bioaerosol negative. These results necessitate a reframing of the prevailing paradigm of Mtb transmission and TB etiology, perhaps explaining the historical inability to elucidate Mtb transmission networks in TB-endemic regions.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis cough aerosol culture status associates with host characteristics and inflammatory profiles

Interrupting transmission events is critical to tuberculosis control. Cough-generated aerosol cultures predict tuberculosis transmission better than microbiological or clinical markers. We hypothesize that highly infectious individuals with pulmonary tuberculosis (positive for cough aerosol cultures) have elevated inflammatory markers and unique transcriptional profiles compared to less infectious individuals. We performed a prospective, longitudinal study using cough aerosol sampling system. We enrolled 142 participants with treatment-naïve pulmonary tuberculosis in Kenya and assessed the association of clinical, microbiologic, and immunologic characteristics with Mycobacterium tuberculosis aerosolization and transmission in 129 household members. Contacts of the forty-three aerosol culture-positive participants (30%) are more likely to have a positive interferon-gamma release assay (85% vs 53%, P = 0.006) and higher median IFNγ level (P < 0.001, 4.28 IU/ml (1.77-5.91) vs. 0.71 (0.01-3.56)) compared to aerosol culture-negative individuals. We find that higher bacillary burden, younger age, larger mean upper arm circumference, and host inflammatory profiles, including elevated serum C-reactive protein and lower plasma TNF levels, associate with positive cough aerosol cultures. Notably, we find pre-treatment whole blood transcriptional profiles associate with aerosol culture status, independent of bacillary load. These findings suggest that tuberculosis infectiousness is associated with epidemiologic characteristics and inflammatory signatures and that these features may identify highly infectious persons.

Tuberculosis among children visiting friends & relatives

BACKGROUND

Most paediatric tuberculosis (TB) cases in low-TB-incidence countries involve children born to migrant families. This may be partially explained by trips to their countries of origin for visiting friends and relatives (VFR). We aimed to estimate the risk of latent TB infection (LTBI) and TB in children VFR.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective multicentric observational study in Catalonia (Spain) from June 2017 to December 2019. We enrolled children aged < 15 years with a negative tuberculin skin test (TST) at baseline and at least one parent from a high-TB-incidence country, and who had travelled to their parent's birth country for ≥21 days. TST and QuantiFERON-TB Gold Plus (QFT-Plus) were performed within 8-12 weeks post-return. LTBI was defined as a TST ≥5 mm and/or a positive QFT-Plus.

RESULTS

Five hundred children completed the study, equivalent to 78.2 person-years of follow-up (PYFU). Thirteen children (2.6%) were diagnosed with LTBI (16.6/per100 PYFU, 95%CI = 8.8-28.5), including two cases (0.4%) of TB (2.5/per100 PYFU, 95%CI = 0.3-9.3). LTBI incidence rates remained high after excluding BCG-vaccinated children (9.7/per100 PYFU, 95%CI = 3.9-20.0). Household tobacco smoke exposure was associated with LTBI (aOR = 3.9, 95%CI = 1.1-13.3).

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of LTBI in children VFR in high-TB-incidence countries may equal, or perhaps even exceed, the infection risk of the native population. The primary associated risk factor was the presence of smokers in the household. Furthermore, the incidence rate of active TB largely surpassed that of the countries visited. Children VFR in high-TB-incidence countries should be targeted for diagnostic and preventive interventions.

Effectiveness of preventive treatment among different age groups and Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection status: a systematic review and individual-participant data meta-analysis of contact tracing studies

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis is a preventable disease. However, there is debate regarding which individuals would benefit most from tuberculosis preventive treatment and whether these benefits vary in settings with a high burden and low burden of tuberculosis. We aimed to compare the effectiveness of tuberculosis preventive treatment in exposed individuals of differing ages and Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection status while considering tuberculosis burden of the settings.

METHODS

In this systematic review and individual-participant meta-analysis, we investigated the development of incident tuberculosis in people closely exposed to individuals with tuberculosis. We searched for studies published between Jan 1, 1998, and April 6, 2018, in MEDLINE, Web of Science, BIOSIS, and Embase. We restricted our search to cohort studies; case-control studies and outbreak reports were excluded. Two reviewers evaluated titles, abstracts, and full text articles for eligibility. At each stage, two reviewers discussed discrepancies and re-evaluated articles until a consensus was reached. Individual-participant data and a pre-specified list of variables, including characteristics of the exposed contact, the index patient, and environmental characteristics, were requested from authors of all eligible studies; contacts exposed to a drug-resistant tuberculosis index patient were excluded. The primary study outcome was incident tuberculosis. We estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for incident tuberculosis with mixed-effects Cox regression models with a study-level random effect. We estimated the number-needed-to-treat (NNT) to prevent one person developing tuberculosis. Propensity score matching procedures were used in all analyses. This study is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42018087022).

FINDINGS

After screening 25 358 records for eligibility, 439 644 participants from 32 cohort studies were included in the individual-participant data meta-analysis. Participants were followed for 1 396 413 person-years (median of 2·7 years [IQR 1·3-4.4]), during which 2496 people were diagnosed with incident tuberculosis. Overall, effectiveness of preventive treatment was 49% (aHR 0·51 [95% CI 0·44-0·60]). Participants with a positive tuberculin-skin-test (TST) or IFNγ release assay (IGRA) result at baseline benefitted from greater protection, regardless of age (0·09 [0·05-0·17] in children younger than 5 years, 0·20 [0·15-0·28] in individuals aged 5-17 years, and 0·17 [0·13-0·22] in adults aged 18 years and older). The effectiveness of preventive treatment was greater in high-burden (0·31 [0·23-0·40]) versus low-burden (0·58 [0·47-0·72]) settings. The NNT ranged from 9 to 34 depending on age among participants with a positive TST or IGRA in both high-burden and low-burden settings; among all contacts (regardless of TST or IGRA test result), the NNT ranged from 29 to 43 in high-burden settings and 213 to 455 in low-burden settings.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings suggest that a risk-targeted strategy prioritising contacts with evidence of M tuberculosis infection might be indicated in low-burden settings, and a broad approach including all contacts should be considered in high-burden settings. Preventive treatment was similarly effective among contacts of all ages.

FUNDING

None.

Comparison of microscopic and xpert MTB diagnoses of presumptive mycobacteria tuberculosis infection: retrospective analysis of routine diagnosis at Cape Coast Teaching Hospital

INTRODUCTION

Tuberculosis is a global health problem that causes 1. 4 million deaths every year. It has been estimated that sputum smear-negative diagnosis but culture-positive pulmonary TB diagnosis contribute to 12.6% of pulmonary TB transmission. TB diagnosis by smear microscopy smear has a minimum detection limit (LOD) of 5,000 to 10,000 bacilli per milliliter (CFU/ml) of sputum result in missed cases and false positives. However, GeneXpert technology, with a LOD of 131-250 CFU/ml in sputum samples and its implementation is believe to facilitate early detection TB and drug-resistant TB case. Since 2013, Ghana health Service (GHS) introduce GeneXpert MTB/RIF diagnostic in all regional hospitals in Ghana, however no assessment of performance between microscopy and GeneXpert TB diagnosis cross the health facilities has been reported. The study compared the results of routine diagnoses of TB by microscopy and Xpert MTB from 2016 to 2020 at the Cape Coast Teaching Hospital (CCTH).

METHODS

The study compared routine microscopic and GeneXpert TB diagnosis results at the Cape Coast Teaching Hospital (CCTH) from 2016 to 2020 retrospectively. Briefly, sputum specimens were collected into 20 mL sterile screw-capped containers for each case of suspected TB infection and processed within 24 h. The samples were decontaminated using the NALC-NaOH method with the final NaOH concentration of 1%. The supernatants were discarded after the centrifuge and the remaining pellets dissolved in 1-1.5 ml of phosphate buffer saline (PBS) and used for diagnosis. A fixed smears were Ziehl-Neelsen acid-fast stain and observed under microscope and the remainings were used for GeneXpert MTB/RIF diagnosis. The data were analyze using GraphPad Prism.

RESULTS

50.11% (48.48-51.38%) were females with an odd ratio (95% CI) of 1.004 (0.944-1.069) more likely to report to the TB clinic for suspected TB diagnosis. The smear-positive cases for the first sputum were 6.6% (5.98-7.25%), and the second sputum was 6.07% (5.45-6.73%). The Xpert MTB-RIF diagnosis detected 2.93% (10/341) (1.42-5.33%) in the first and 5.44% (16/294) (3.14-8.69%) in the second smear-negative TB samples. The prevalence of Xpert MTB-RIF across smear positive showed that males had 56.87% (178/313) and 56.15% (137/244) and females had 43.13% (135/313) and 43.85% (107/244) for the first and second sputum. Also, false negative smears were 0.18% (10/5607) for smear 1 and 0.31% (16/5126) for smear 2.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, the study highlights the higher sensitivity of the GeneXpert assay compared to traditional smear microscopy for detecting MTB. The GeneXpert assay identified 10 and 16 positive MTB from smear 1 and smear 2 samples which were microscopic negative.

Optimizing the cascade of prevention to protect people from tuberculosis: A potential game changer for reducing global tuberculosis incidence

The provision of tuberculosis preventive treatment is one of the critical interventions to reduce tuberculosis incidence and ultimately eliminate the disease, yet we still miss appropriate tools for an impactful intervention and treatment coverage remains low. We used recent data, epidemiological estimates, and research findings to analyze the challenges of each step of the cascade of tuberculosis prevention that currently delay the strategy implementation. We addressed research gaps and implementation bottlenecks that withhold key actions in tuberculosis case finding, testing for tuberculosis infection, provision of preventive treatment with safer, shorter regimens and supporting people to complete their treatment. Empowering communities to generate demand for preventive therapy and other prevention services in a holistic manner and providing adequate financial support to sustain implementation are essential requirements. The adoption of an effective, universal monitoring and evaluation system is a prerequisite to provide general and granular insight, and to steer progress of the tuberculosis infection strategy at global and local level.

Overlooked, dismissed, and downplayed: reversion of Mycobacterium tuberculosis immunoreactivity

Tuberculosis (TB) is caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb). Following infection, immune responses to Mtb antigens can be measured using the tuberculin skin test or an interferon-γ release assay. The gain of Mtb immunoreactivity, a change from a negative to a positive tuberculin skin test or interferon-γ release assay result, is called conversion and has long been used as a measure of Mtb exposure. However, the loss of immunoreactivity (reversion; a positive followed by a negative result) has often been overlooked. Instead, in clinical and epidemiological circles, Mtb immunoreactivity is commonly considered to persist lifelong and confer a lifetime of disease risk. We present a critical review, describing the evidence for reversion from cohort studies, ecological studies and studies of TB progression risk. We outline the inconsistent reasons why reversion has been dismissed from common understanding and present evidence demonstrating that, just as conversion predominantly indicates prior exposure to Mtb antigens, so its opposite, reversion, suggests the reduction or absence of exposure (endogenous or exogenous). Mtb immunoreactivity is dynamic in both individuals and populations and this is why it is useful for stratifying short-term TB progression risk. The neglect of reversion has shaped TB research and policy at all levels, influencing clinical management and skewing Mtb infection risk estimation and transmission modelling, leading to an underestimation of the contribution of re-exposure to the burden of TB, a serious oversight for an infectious disease. More than a century after it was first demonstrated, it is time to incorporate reversion into our understanding of the natural history of TB.

M. tuberculosis Infection Attributable to Exposure in Social Networks of Tuberculosis Cases in an Urban African Community

Background

The persistence of tuberculosis today and its global disparity send a powerful message that effective tuberculosis control must respond to its regional epidemiology. Active case finding through contact investigation is a standard protocol used for tuberculosis control, but its effectiveness has not been established, especially in endemic areas.

Methods

To quantify the potential effectiveness of contact investigation in Kampala, Uganda, we used a cross-sectional design to evaluate the social networks of 123 tuberculosis index cases and 124 controls without tuberculosis.

Results

Tuberculous infection was present in 515 of 989 tuberculosis case contacts (52.1%) and 396 of 1026 control contacts (38.6%; adjusted prevalence ratio, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.3-1.6). The proportion of infected participants with known exposure within the social network of the tuberculosis case was 35%. The population-attributable fraction was 11.1% for any known exposure, with 7.3% attributable to household exposure and 3.4% attributable to extrahousehold exposure.

Conclusions

This low population-attributable fraction indicates that contact tracing in the social networks of index cases will have only a modest effect in reducing tuberculous infection in a community. New approaches to community-level active case finding are needed.

Systems analysis and improvement approach to optimize tuberculosis (SAIA-TB) screening, treatment, and prevention in South Africa: a stepped-wedge cluster randomized trial

BACKGROUND

The use of systems engineering tools, including the development and use of care cascades using routinely collected data, process mapping, and continuous quality improvement, is used for frontline healthcare workers to devise systems level change. South Africa experiences high rates of tuberculosis (TB) infection and disease as well as HIV co-infection. The Department of Health has made significant gains in HIV services over the last two decades, reaching their set "90-90-90" targets for HIV. However, TB services, although robust, have lagged in comparison for both disease and infection. The Systems Analysis and Improvement Approach (SAIA) is a five-step implementation science method, drawn from systems engineering, to identify, define, and implement workflow modifications using cascade analysis, process mapping, and repeated quality improvement cycles within healthcare facilities.

METHODS

This stepped-wedge cluster randomized trial will evaluate the effectiveness of SAIA on TB (SAIA-TB) cascade optimization for patients with TB and high-risk contacts across 16 clinics in four local municipalities in the Sarah Baartman district, Eastern Cape, South Africa. We hypothesize that SAIA-TB implementation will lead to a 20% increase in each of: TB screening, TB preventive treatment initiation, and TB disease treatment initiation during the 18-month intervention period. Focus group discussions and key informant interviews with clinic staff will also be conducted to determine drivers of implementation variability across clinics.

DISCUSSION

This study has the potential to improve TB screening, treatment initiation, and completion for both active disease and preventive measures among individuals with and without HIV in a high burden setting. SAIA-TB provides frontline health care workers with a systems-level view of their care delivery system with the aim of sustainable systems-level improvements.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT06314386. Registered 18 March 2024, https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06314386 . NCT06314386.

Persistent Mycobacterium tuberculosis bioaerosol release in a tuberculosis-endemic setting

Pioneering studies linking symptomatic disease and cough-mediated release of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) established the infectious origin of tuberculosis (TB), simultaneously informing the pervasive notion that pathology is a prerequisite for Mtb transmission. Our prior work has challenged this assumption: by sampling TB clinic attendees, we detected equivalent release of Mtb-containing bioaerosols by confirmed TB patients and individuals not receiving a TB diagnosis, and we demonstrated a time-dependent reduction in Mtb bioaerosol positivity during six-months' follow-up, irrespective of anti-TB chemotherapy. Now, by extending bioaerosol sampling to a randomly selected community cohort, we show that Mtb release is common in a TB-endemic setting: of 89 participants, 79.8% (71/89) produced Mtb bioaerosols independently of QuantiFERON-TB Gold status, a standard test for Mtb infection; moreover, during two-months' longitudinal sampling, only 2% (1/50) were serially Mtb bioaerosol negative. These results necessitate a reframing of the prevailing paradigm of Mtb transmission and infection, and may explain the current inability to elucidate Mtb transmission networks in TB-endemic regions.

Tuberculosis infection and hypertension: prevalence estimates from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

OBJECTIVES

Tuberculosis infection (TBI) is marked by dynamic host-pathogen interactions with persistent low-grade inflammation and is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) including acute coronary syndrome, myocardial infarction and stroke. However, few studies assess the relationship between TBI and hypertension, an intermediate of CVD. We sought to determine the association between TBI and hypertension using data representative of the adult US population.

METHODS

We performed cross-sectional analyses using data from the 2011-2012 US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Eligible participants included adults with valid QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube (QFT-GIT) test results who also had blood pressure measures and no history of TB disease. TBI was defined by a positive QFT-GIT. We defined hypertension by either elevated measured blood pressure levels (ie, systolic ≥130 mm Hg or diastolic ≥80 mm Hg) or known hypertension indications (ie, self-reported previous diagnosis or use of antihypertensive medications). Analyses were performed using robust quasi-Poisson regressions and accounted for the stratified probability sampling design of NHANES.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of TBI was 5.7% (95% CI 4.7% to 6.7%) and hypertension was present among 48.9% (95% CI 45.2% to 52.7%) of participants. The prevalence of hypertension was higher among those with TBI (58.5%, 95% CI 52.4% to 64.5%) than those without TBI (48.3%, 95% CI 44.5% to 52.1%) (prevalence ratio (PR) 1.2, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.3). However, after adjusting for confounders, the prevalence of hypertension was similar for those with and without TBI (adjusted PR 1.0, 95% CI 1.0 to 1.1). The unadjusted prevalence of hypertension was higher among those with TBI versus no TBI, especially among individuals without CVD risk factors including those with normal body mass index (PR 1.6, 95% CI 1.2 to 2.0), euglycaemia (PR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.5) or non-smokers (PR 1.2, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.4).

CONCLUSIONS

More than half of adults with TBI in the USA had hypertension. Importantly, we observed a relationship between TBI and hypertension among those without established CVD risk factors.

SUMMARY

The prevalence of hypertension was high (59%) among adults with TBI in the USA. In addition, we found that the prevalence of hypertension was significantly higher among adults with positive QFT without established hypertension risk factors.

Recombinant expression and functional characterization of FadD2 protein in Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) is a crucial and highly destructive intracellular pathogen responsible for causing tuberculosis (TB). The emergence and dissemination of multi-drug resistant Mtb has further aggravated the TB crisis, leading to high mortality. Mtb FadD2 is a fatty acyl-coenzyme A (CoA) synthetase that modifies the cell envelope and plays an important role in reducing Mtb susceptibility to pyrazinoic acid (POA). However, the functional mechanism of Mtb FadD2 remains poorly understood. Here, we successfully expressed, purified and obtained monomeric FadD2 by using buffer (500 mM NaCl, 20 mM Tris-HCl, pH7.4 and 5 % glycerol). Palmitate was found to be the optimal substrate for FadD2. Fatty acyl-CoA synthetase activity reached maximum at 450 μM palmitate, and the Km value was 318.2 μM for palmitate. The results of mutation experiments indicated the critical role of T370 and K551 in the enzymatic activity of FadD2. Our work provides a guideline and concept for the development of novel drugs against Mtb.

Airborne transmission risks of tuberculosis and COVID-19 in schools in South Africa, Switzerland, and Tanzania: Modeling of environmental data

The COVID-19 pandemic renewed interest in airborne transmission of respiratory infections, particularly in congregate indoor settings, such as schools. We modeled transmission risks of tuberculosis (caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis, Mtb) and COVID-19 (caused by SARS-CoV-2) in South African, Swiss and Tanzanian secondary schools. We estimated the risks of infection with the Wells-Riley equation, expressed as the median with 2.5% and 97.5% quantiles (credible interval [CrI]), based on the ventilation rate and the duration of exposure to infectious doses (so-called quanta). We computed the air change rate (ventilation) using carbon dioxide (CO2) as a tracer gas and modeled the quanta generation rate based on reported estimates from the literature. The share of infectious students in the classroom is determined by country-specific estimates of pulmonary TB. For SARS-CoV-2, the number of infectious students was estimated based on excess mortality to mitigate the bias from country-specific reporting and testing. Average CO2 concentration (parts per million [ppm]) was 1,610 ppm in South Africa, 1,757 ppm in Switzerland, and 648 ppm in Tanzania. The annual risk of infection for Mtb was 22.1% (interquartile range [IQR] 2.7%-89.5%) in South Africa, 0.7% (IQR 0.1%-6.4%) in Switzerland, and 0.5% (IQR 0.0%-3.9%) in Tanzania. For SARS-CoV-2, the monthly risk of infection was 6.8% (IQR 0.8%-43.8%) in South Africa, 1.2% (IQR 0.1%-8.8%) in Switzerland, and 0.9% (IQR 0.1%-6.6%) in Tanzania. The differences in transmission risks primarily reflect a higher incidence of SARS-CoV-2 and particularly prevalence of TB in South Africa, but also higher air change rates due to better natural ventilation of the classrooms in Tanzania. Global comparisons of the modeled risk of infectious disease transmission in classrooms can provide high-level information for policy-making regarding appropriate infection control strategies.

In-kind nutritional supplementation for household contacts of persons with tuberculosis would be cost-effective for reducing tuberculosis incidence and mortality in India: a modeling study

Background

Undernutrition is the leading cause of tuberculosis (TB) globally, but nutritional interventions are often considered cost prohibitive. The RATIONS study demonstrated that nutritional support provided to household contacts of persons with TB can reduce TB incidence. However, the long-term cost-effectiveness of this intervention is unclear.

Methods

We assessed the cost-effectiveness of a RATIONS-style intervention (daily 750 kcal dietary supplementation and multi-micronutrient tablet). Using a Markov state transition model we simulated TB incidence, treatment, and TB-attributable mortality among household contacts receiving the RATIONS intervention, as compared to no nutritional support. We calculated health outcomes (TB cases, TB deaths, and disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) over the lifetime of intervention recipients and assessed costs from government and societal perspectives. We tested the robustness of results to parameter changes via deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

Findings

Over two years, household contacts receiving the RATIONS intervention would experience 39% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 23-52) fewer TB cases and 59% (95% UI: 44-69) fewer TB deaths. The intervention was estimated to avert 13,775 (95% UI: 9036-20,199) TB DALYs over the lifetime of the study cohort comprising 100,000 household contacts and was cost-effective from both government (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio: $229 per DALY averted [95% UI: 133-387]) and societal perspectives ($184 per DALY averted [95% UI: 83-344]). The results were most sensitive to the cost of the nutritional supplement.

Interpretation

Prompt nutritional support for household contacts of persons with TB disease would be cost-effective in reducing TB incidence and mortality in India.

Summary

Undernutrition is the leading cause of tuberculosis in India. Using a Markov state-transition model, we found that food baskets for household contacts of persons with tuberculosis would be cost-effective in reducing tuberculosis incidence and mortality in India.

Research in context

Evidence before this study: Undernutrition is the leading risk factor for TB worldwide. Recently, the RATIONS study demonstrated a roughly 40% reduction in incident TB among household contacts who received in-kind macronutrient and micronutrient supplementation. Added value of this study: Although the RATIONS study demonstrated a dramatic reduction in incident TB, it is unclear if nutritional interventions to prevent TB are cost-effective. Previously, only one cost-effectiveness analysis of nutritional interventions for household contacts has been published. Due to lack of published data, that study had to make assumptions regarding the impact of nutritional interventions on TB incidence and mortality. In this study, we conducted an economic evaluation of a RATIONS-style intervention to reduce incident TB and mortality in India using observed data. Implications of all the available evidence: In-kind nutritional supplementation for household contacts of individuals with TB disease would be cost-effective in reducing incident TB and TB mortality, particularly if TB programs leverage economies of scale to bring down the cost of the nutritional intervention.

Effect of Mycolic Acids on Host Immunity and Lipid Metabolism

Mycolic acids constitute pivotal constituents within the cell wall structure of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Due to their structural diversity, the composition of mycolic acids exhibits substantial variations among different strains, endowing them with the distinctive label of being the 'signature' feature of mycobacterial species. Within Mycobacterium tuberculosis, the primary classes of mycolic acids include α-, keto-, and methoxy-mycolic acids. While these mycolic acids are predominantly esterified to the cell wall components (such as arabinogalactan, alginate, or glucose) of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, a fraction of free mycolic acids are secreted during in vitro growth of the bacterium. Remarkably, different types of mycolic acids possess varying capabilities to induce foamy macro-phages and trigger immune responses. Additionally, mycolic acids play a regulatory role in the lipid metabolism of host cells, thereby exerting influence over the progression of tuberculosis. Consequently, the multifaceted properties of mycolic acids shape the immune evasion strategy employed by Mycobacterium tuberculosis. A comprehensive understanding of mycolic acids is of paramount significance in the pursuit of developing tuberculosis therapeutics and unraveling the intricacies of its pathogenic mechanisms.

Invited Commentary: The Winding Road to Identifying the Annual Rate of Tuberculosis Infection

Many persons with immunological tests indicating Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, such as tuberculin skin tests or interferon-γ release assays, are at risk of progression to tuberculosis disease. Persons whose tests revert to negative may no longer be at such risk. Therefore, identifying the rate of test reversion, potentially indicating cure of M. tuberculosis infection, is an important area of investigation. In their accompanying article (Am J Epidemiol. 2023;192(12):1937-1943), Schwalb et al. extract data on test reversion from prechemotherapy literature and construct a model to predict the rate of reversion, and thus the likely cure of infection. Unfortunately, the incompleteness of the historical data and the use of imprecise definitions of test positivity and reversion lead to substantial misclassification and limit the usefulness of the model. Better definitions and improved tests will be needed in order to develop a clear picture of this aspect of the natural history of tuberculosis.

Impact of Reversion of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Immunoreactivity Tests on the Estimated Annual Risk of Tuberculosis Infection

A key metric in tuberculosis epidemiology is the annual risk of infection (ARI), which is usually derived from tuberculin skin test (TST) and interferon-γ release assay (IGRA) prevalence surveys carried out in children. Derivation of the ARI assumes that immunoreactivity is persistent over time; however, reversion of immunoreactivity has long been documented. We used a deterministic, compartmental model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection to explore the impact of reversion on ARI estimation using age-specific reversion probabilities for the TST and IGRA. Using empirical data on TST reversion (22.2%/year for persons aged ≤19 years), the true ARI was 2-5 times higher than that estimated from immunoreactivity studies in children aged 8-12 years. Applying empirical reversion probabilities for the IGRA (9.9%/year for youths aged 12-18 years) showed a 1.5- to 2-fold underestimation. ARIs are increasingly underestimated in older populations, due to the cumulative impact of reversion on population reactivity over time. Declines in annual risk did not largely affect the results. Ignoring reversion leads to a stark underestimation of the true ARI in populations and our interpretation of Mtb transmission intensity. In future surveys, researchers should adjust for the reversion probability and its cumulative effect with increasing age to obtain a more accurate reflection of the burden and dynamics of Mtb infection.

1-Year Incidence of Tuberculosis Infection and Disease Among Household Contacts of Rifampin- and Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis infection (TBI) and TB disease (TBD) incidence remains poorly described following household contact (HHC) rifampin-/multidrug-resistant TB exposure. We sought to characterize TBI and TBD incidence at 1 year in HHCs and to evaluate TB preventive treatment (TPT) use in high-risk groups.

METHODS

We previously conducted a cross-sectional study of HHCs with rifampin-/multidrug-resistant TB in 8 high-burden countries and reassessed TBI (interferon-gamma release assay, HHCs aged ≥5 years) and TBD (HHCs all ages) at 1 year. Incidence was estimated across age and risk groups (<5 years; ≥5 years, diagnosed with human immunodeficiency virus [HIV]; ≥5 years, not diagnosed with HIV/unknown, baseline TBI-positive) by logistic or log-binomial regression fitted using generalized estimating equations.

RESULTS

Of 1016 HHCs, 850 (83.7%) from 247 households were assessed (median, 51.4 weeks). Among 242 HHCs, 52 tested interferon-gamma release assay-positive, yielding a 1-year 21.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 16.7-27.4) TBI cumulative incidence. Sixteen of 742 HHCs developed confirmed (n = 5), probable (n = 3), or possible (n = 8) TBD, yielding a 2.3% (95% CI, 1.4-3.8) 1-year cumulative incidence (1.1%; 95% CI, .5-2.2 for confirmed/probable TBD). TBD relative risk was 11.5-fold (95% CI, 1.7-78.7), 10.4-fold (95% CI, 2.4-45.6), and 2.9-fold (95% CI, .5-17.8) higher in age <5 years, diagnosed with HIV, and baseline TBI high-risk groups, respectively, vs the not high-risk group (P = .0015). By 1 year, 4% (21 of 553) of high-risk HHCs had received TPT.

CONCLUSIONS

TBI and TBD incidence continued through 1 year in rifampin-/multidrug-resistant TB HHCs. Low TPT coverage emphasizes the need for evidence-based prevention and scale-up, particularly among high-risk groups.

Addressing mechanism bias in model-based impact forecasts of new tuberculosis vaccines

In tuberculosis (TB) vaccine development, multiple factors hinder the design and interpretation of the clinical trials used to estimate vaccine efficacy. The complex transmission chain of TB includes multiple routes to disease, making it hard to link the vaccine efficacy observed in a trial to specific protective mechanisms. Here, we present a Bayesian framework to evaluate the compatibility of different vaccine descriptions with clinical trial outcomes, unlocking impact forecasting from vaccines whose specific mechanisms of action are unknown. Applying our method to the analysis of the M72/AS01E vaccine trial -conducted on IGRA+ individuals- as a case study, we found that most plausible models for this vaccine needed to include protection against, at least, two over the three possible routes to active TB classically considered in the literature: namely, primary TB, latent TB reactivation and TB upon re-infection. Gathering new data regarding the impact of TB vaccines in various epidemiological settings would be instrumental to improve our model estimates of the underlying mechanisms.

Genetic epidemiology of resistance to M. tuberculosis Infection: importance of study design and recent findings

Resistance to M. tuberculosis, often referred to as "RSTR" in the literature, is being increasingly studied because of its potential relevance as a clinical outcome in vaccine studies. This review starts by addressing the importance of epidemiological characterization of this phenotype, and ongoing challenges in that characterization. Then, this review summarizes the extant genetic and genomic studies of this phenotype, including heritability studies, candidate gene studies, and genome-wide association studies, as well as whole transcriptome studies. Findings from recent studies that used longitudinal characterization of the RSTR phenotype are compared to those using a cross-sectional definition, and the challenges of using tuberculin skin test and interferon-gamma release assay are discussed. Finally, future directions are proposed. Since this is a rapidly evolving area of public health significance, this review will help frame future research questions and study designs.

Tuberculosis infection and hypertension: Prevalence estimates from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

Objectives

Latent Tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is marked by dynamic host-pathogen interactions with persistent low-grade inflammation and is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) including acute coronary syndrome, myocardial infarction, and stroke. However, few studies assess the relationship between LTBI and hypertension, an intermediate of CVD. We sought to determine the association between LTBI and hypertension using data representative of the adult US population.

Methods

We performed cross-sectional analyses using data from the 2011-2012 US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Eligible participants included adults with valid QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube (QFT-GIT) test results who also had blood pressure measures and no history of TB disease. LTBI was defined by a positive QFT-GIT. We defined hypertension by either elevated measured blood pressure levels (i.e., systolic ≥130mmHg or diastolic ≥80mmHg) or known hypertension indications (i.e., self-reported previous diagnosis or use of antihypertensive medications). Analyses were performed using robust quasi-Poisson regressions and accounted for the stratified probability sampling design of NHANES.

Results

The overall prevalence of LTBI was 5.7% (95%CI 4.7-6.7) and hypertension was present among 48.9% (95%CI 45.2-52.7) of participants. The prevalence of hypertension was higher among those with LTBI (58.5%, 95%CI 52.4-64.5) than those without LTBI (48.3%, 95%CI 44.5-52.1) (prevalence ratio [PR]=1.2, 95%CI 1.1-1.3). However, after adjusting for confounders, the prevalence of hypertension was similar for those with and without LTBI (adjusted PR=1.0, 95%CI 0.9 -1.1). Among individuals without CVD risk factors of elevated BMI (PRnormal BMI=1.6, 95%CI 1.2-2.0), hyperglycemia (PReuglycemia=1.3, 95%CI 1.1-1.5), or cigarette smoking (PRnon-smokers=1.2, 95%CI 1.1-1.4), the unadjusted prevalence of hypertension was higher among those with LTBI vs. no LTBI.

Conclusions

More than half of adults with LTBI in the US had hypertension. Importantly, we observed a relationship between LTBI and hypertension among those without established CVD risk factors.

Transmission modeling to infer tuberculosis incidence prevalence and mortality in settings with generalized HIV epidemics

Tuberculosis (TB) killed more people globally than any other single pathogen over the past decade. Where surveillance is weak, estimating TB burden estimates uses modeling. In many African countries, increases in HIV prevalence and antiretroviral therapy have driven dynamic TB epidemics, complicating estimation of burden, trends, and potential intervention impact. We therefore develop a novel age-structured TB transmission model incorporating evolving demographic, HIV and antiretroviral therapy effects, and calibrate to TB prevalence and notification data from 12 African countries. We use Bayesian methods to include uncertainty for all TB model parameters, and estimate age-specific annual risks of TB infection, finding up to 16.0%/year in adults, and the proportion of TB incidence from recent (re)infection, finding a mean across countries of 34%. Rapid reduction of the unacceptably high burden of TB in high HIV prevalence settings will require interventions addressing progression as well as transmission.

A cost-effectiveness evaluation of latent tuberculosis infection screening of a migrant population in Malaysia

To estimate the costs and benefits of screening for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) in a migrant population in Malaysia. An economic model was developed from a Malaysian healthcare perspective to compare QuantiFERON-TB Gold Plus (QuantiFERON) with the tuberculin skin test (TST). A decision tree was used to capture outcomes relating to LTBI screening followed by a Markov model that simulated the lifetime costs and benefits of the patient cohort. The Markov model did not capture the impact of secondary infections. The model included an R shiny interactive interface to allow adaptation to other scenarios and settings. QuantiFERON is both more effective and less costly than TST (dominant). Compared with QuantiFERON, the lifetime risk of developing active TB increases by approximately 40% for TST due to missed LTBI cases during screening (i.e. a higher number of false negative cases for TST). For a migrant population in Malaysia, QuantiFERON is cost-effective when compared with TST. Further research should consider targeted LTBI screening for migrants in Malaysia based on common risk factors.

Contribution of Reinfection to Annual Rate of Tuberculosis Infection (ARI) and Incidence of Tuberculosis Disease

BACKGROUND

Modeling studies have concluded that 60-80% of tuberculosis (TB) infections result from reinfection of previously infected persons. The annual rate of infection (ARI), a standard measure of the risk of TB infection in a community, may not accurately reflect the true risk of infection among previously infected persons. We constructed a model of infection and reinfection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis to explore the predictive accuracy of ARI and its effect on disease incidence.

METHODS

We created a deterministic simulation of the progression from TB infection to disease and simulated the prevalence of TB infection at the beginning and end of a theoretical year of infection. We considered 10 disease prevalence scenarios ranging from 100/100 000 to 1000/100 000 in simulations where TB exposure probability was homogeneous across the whole simulated population or heterogeneously stratified into high-risk and low-risk groups. ARI values, rates of progression from infection to disease, and the effect of multiple reinfections were obtained from published studies.

RESULTS

With homogeneous exposure risk, observed ARI values produced expected numbers of infections. However, when heterogeneous risk was introduced, observed ARI was seen to underestimate true ARI by 25-58%. Of the cases of TB disease that occurred, 36% were among previously infected persons when prevalence was 100/100 000, increasing to 79% of cases when prevalence was 1000/100 000.

CONCLUSIONS

Measured ARI underestimates true ARI as a result of heterogeneous population mixing. The true force of infection in a community may be greater than previously appreciated. Hyperendemic communities likely contribute disproportionally to the global TB disease burden.

Challenges and the Way forward in Diagnosis and Treatment of Tuberculosis Infection

Globally, it is estimated that one-quarter of the world's population is latently infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), also known as latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI). Recently, this condition has been referred to as tuberculosis infection (TBI), considering the dynamic spectrum of the infection, as 5-10% of the latently infected population will develop active TB (ATB). The chances of TBI development increase due to close contact with index TB patients. The emergence of multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) and the risk of development of latent MDR-TB has further complicated the situation. Detection of TBI is challenging as the infected individual does not present symptoms. Currently, there is no gold standard for TBI diagnosis, and the only screening tests are tuberculin skin test (TST) and interferon gamma release assays (IGRAs). However, these tests have several limitations, including the inability to differentiate between ATB and TBI, false-positive results in BCG-vaccinated individuals (only for TST), false-negative results in children, elderly, and immunocompromised patients, and the inability to predict the progression to ATB, among others. Thus, new host markers and Mtb-specific antigens are being tested to develop new diagnostic methods. Besides screening, TBI therapy is a key intervention for TB control. However, the long-course treatment and associated side effects result in non-adherence to the treatment. Additionally, the latent MDR strains are not susceptible to the current TBI treatments, which add an additional challenge. This review discusses the current situation of TBI, as well as the challenges and efforts involved in its control.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis Transmission in High-Incidence Settings-New Paradigms and Insights

Tuberculosis has affected humankind for thousands of years, but a deeper understanding of its cause and transmission only arose after Robert Koch discovered Mycobacterium tuberculosis in 1882. Valuable insight has been gained since, but the accumulation of knowledge has been frustratingly slow and incomplete for a pathogen that remains the number one infectious disease killer on the planet. Contrast that to the rapid progress that has been made in our understanding SARS-CoV-2 (the cause of COVID-19) aerobiology and transmission. In this Review, we discuss important historical and contemporary insights into M. tuberculosis transmission. Historical insights describing the principles of aerosol transmission, as well as relevant pathogen, host and environment factors are described. Furthermore, novel insights into asymptomatic and subclinical tuberculosis, and the potential role this may play in population-level transmission is discussed. Progress towards understanding the full spectrum of M. tuberculosis transmission in high-burden settings has been hampered by sub-optimal diagnostic tools, limited basic science exploration and inadequate study designs. We propose that, as a tuberculosis field, we must learn from and capitalize on the novel insights and methods that have been developed to investigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission to limit ongoing tuberculosis transmission, which sustains the global pandemic.

Population-based sequencing of Mycobacterium tuberculosis reveals how current population dynamics are shaped by past epidemics

Transmission is a driver of tuberculosis (TB) epidemics in high-burden regions, with assumed negligible impact in low-burden areas. However, we still lack a full characterization of transmission dynamics in settings with similar and different burdens. Genomic epidemiology can greatly help to quantify transmission, but the lack of whole genome sequencing population-based studies has hampered its application. Here, we generate a population-based dataset from Valencia region and compare it with available datasets from different TB-burden settings to reveal transmission dynamics heterogeneity and its public health implications. We sequenced the whole genome of 785 Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains and linked genomes to patient epidemiological data. We use a pairwise distance clustering approach and phylodynamic methods to characterize transmission events over the last 150 years, in different TB-burden regions. Our results underscore significant differences in transmission between low-burden TB settings, i.e., clustering in Valencia region is higher (47.4%) than in Oxfordshire (27%), and similar to a high-burden area as Malawi (49.8%). By modeling times of the transmission links, we observed that settings with high transmission rate are associated with decades of uninterrupted transmission, irrespective of burden. Together, our results reveal that burden and transmission are not necessarily linked due to the role of past epidemics in the ongoing TB incidence, and highlight the need for in-depth characterization of transmission dynamics and specifically tailored TB control strategies.