Frequency of exacerbations in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: an analysis of the SPIROMICS cohort

Predicting COPD exacerbations based on quantitative CT analysis: an external validation study

Purpose

Quantitative computed tomography (CT) analysis is an important method for diagnosis and severity evaluation of lung diseases. However, the association between CT-derived biomarkers and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations remains unclear. We aimed to investigate its potential in predicting COPD exacerbations.

Methods

Patients with COPD were consecutively enrolled, and their data were analyzed in this retrospective study. Body composition and thoracic abnormalities were analyzed from chest CT scans. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors of exacerbation. Based on 2-year follow-up data, the deep learning system (DLS) was developed to predict future exacerbations. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was conducted to assess the diagnostic performance. Finally, the survival analysis was performed to further evaluate the potential of the DLS in risk stratification.

Results

A total of 1,150 eligible patients were included and followed up for 2 years. Multivariate analysis revealed that CT-derived high affected lung volume/total lung capacity (ALV/TLC) ratio, high visceral adipose tissue area (VAT), and low pectoralis muscle cross-sectional area (CSA) were independent risk factors causing COPD exacerbations. The DLS outperformed exacerbation history and the BMI, airflow obstruction, dyspnea, and exercise capacity (BODE) index, with an area under the ROC (AUC) value of 0.88 (95%CI, 0.82-0.92) in the internal cohort and 0.86 (95%CI, 0.81-0.89) in the external cohort. The DeLong test revealed significance between this system and conventional scores in the test cohorts (p < 0.05). In the survival analysis, patients with higher risk were susceptible to exacerbation events.

Conclusion

The DLS could allow accurate prediction of COPD exacerbations. The newly identified CT biomarkers (ALV/TLC ratio, VAT, and pectoralis muscle CSA) could potentially enable investigation into underlying mechanisms responsible for exacerbations.

Tracking COPD exacerbation patterns and forecasting readmission risks utilizing electronic medical records

INTRODUCTION

Accurate evaluation of exacerbation frequency is an essential part of COPD assessment. But relying on just the prior-year exacerbation history may not capture the full picture of risk given the inherent year-to-year fluctuations in exacerbation rates. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive performance of models incorporating the 3-year exacerbation history based on electronic medical record.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 86,501 COPD hospitalized patients in Beijing from 2008 to 2014. The annual frequency of COPD exacerbation hospitalizations over a 3-year period after the index hospitalization was calculated, with patients segmented into seven distinct exacerbation trajectory groups. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the predictive capability of the 3-year exacerbation history for exacerbation readmission in the fourth year. Predictors included age, sex, comorbidities, and exacerbation hospitalization in previous 1-3 years. Model performance was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Of the studied patients, 56.5% were men, and the mean age (SD) was 73.8 (10.3) years. The overall readmission rate for COPD exacerbation was 0.31 per person-year, with only 3.8% of patients persistently readmitted over three consecutive years. The 3-year trajectory of exacerbation frequency was associated with exacerbation risk in the fourth year. Compared to just the prior year, the inclusion of a 3-year exacerbation hospitalization history notably improved prediction accuracy, with AUC elevating from 0.731 (0.724-0.739) to 0.786 (0.779-0.792).

CONCLUSION

These results unveil the fluctuating nature of COPD exacerbation hospitalization frequency across years and demonstrate that integrating a more comprehensive 3-year exacerbation history significantly refines the prediction model for future risk, thus providing a more nuanced and actionable insight for clinical care.

Clinical Characteristics and Frequency of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbations in Korean Patients: Findings From the KOCOSS Cohort 2012-2021

BACKGROUND

Acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) exert a substantial burden on patients and healthcare systems; however, data related to the frequency of AECOPD in the Korean population are limited. Therefore, this study aimed to describe the frequency of severe, and moderate or severe AECOPD, as well as clinical and demographic characteristics of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in South Korea.

METHODS

Data from patients aged > 40 years with post-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1)/forced vital capacity ≤ 70% of the normal predicted value from the Korea COPD Subgroup Study database were analyzed (April 2012 to 2021). The protocol was based on the EXAcerbations of COPD and their OutcomeS International study. Data were collected retrospectively for year 0 (0-12 months before study enrollment) based on patient recall, and prospectively during years 1, 2, and 3 (0-12, 13-24, and 25-36 months after study enrollment, respectively). The data were summarized using descriptive statistics.

RESULTS

Data from 3,477 Korean patients (mean age, 68.5 years) with COPD were analyzed. Overall, most patients were male (92.3%), former or current smokers (90.8%), had a modified Medical Research Council dyspnea scale score ≥ 1 (83.3%), and had moderate airflow limitation (54.4%). The mean body mass index (BMI) of the study population was 23.1 kg/m², and 27.6% were obese or overweight. Hypertension was the most common comorbidity (37.6%). The mean blood eosinophil count was 226.8 cells/μL, with 21.9% of patients having ≥ 300 cells/μL. A clinically insignificant change in FEV1 (+1.4%) was observed a year after enrollment. Overall, patients experienced a mean of 0.2 severe annual AECOPD and approximately 1.1 mean moderate or severe AECOPD. Notably, the rates of severe AECOPD remained generally consistent over time. Compared with patients with no exacerbations, patients who experienced severe exacerbations had a lower mean BMI (21.7 vs. 23.1 kg/m²; P < 0.001) and lower lung function parameters (all P values < 0.001), but reported high rates of depression (25.5% vs. 15.1%; P = 0.044) and anxiety (37.3% vs. 16.7%; P < 0.001) as a comorbidity.

CONCLUSION

Findings from this Korean cohort of patients with COPD indicated a high exacerbation burden, which may be attributable to the unique characteristics of the study population and suboptimal disease management. This highlights the need to align clinical practices with the latest treatment recommendations to alleviate AECOPD burden in Korea.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT05750810.

Long COVID symptoms after 8-month recovery: persistent static lung hyperinflation associated with small airway dysfunction

BACKGROUND

Limited research has investigated the relationship between small airway dysfunction (SAD) and static lung hyperinflation (SLH) in patients with post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) especially dyspnea and fatigue.

METHODS

64 patients with PASC were enrolled between July 2020 and December 2022 in a prospective observational cohort. Pulmonary function tests, impulse oscillometry (IOS), and symptom questionnaires were performed two, five and eight months after acute infection. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to test the association between SLH and patient-reported outcomes.

RESULTS

SLH prevalence was 53.1% (34/64), irrespective of COVID-19 severity. IOS parameters and circulating CD4/CD8 T-cell ratio were significantly correlated with residual volume to total lung capacity ratio (RV/TLC). Serum CD8 + T cell count was negatively correlated with forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) with statistical significance. Of the patients who had SLH at baseline, 57% continued to have persistent SLH after eight months of recovery, with these patients tending to be older and having dyspnea and fatigue. Post-COVID dyspnea was significantly associated with SLH and IOS parameters R5-R20, and AX with adjusted odds ratios 12.4, 12.8 and 7.6 respectively. SLH was also significantly associated with fatigue.

CONCLUSION

SAD and a decreased serum CD4/CD8 ratio were associated with SLH in patients with PASC. SLH may persist after recovery from infection in a substantial proportion of patients. SAD and dysregulated T-cell immune response correlated with SLH may contribute to the development of dyspnea and fatigue in patients with PASC.

Mortality prevention as the centre of COPD management

COPD is a major healthcare problem and cause of mortality worldwide. COPD patients at increased mortality risk are those who are more symptomatic, have lower lung function and lower diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide, decreased exercise capacity, belong to the emphysematous phenotype and those who have concomitant bronchiectasis. Mortality risk seems to be greater in patients who experience COPD exacerbations and in those who suffer from concomitant cardiovascular and/or metabolic diseases. To predict the risk of death in COPD patients, several composite scores have been created using different parameters. In previous years, large studies (also called mega-trials) have evaluated the efficacy of different therapies on COPD mortality, but until recently only nonpharmaceutical interventions have proven to be effective. However, recent studies on fixed combinations of triple therapy (long-acting β-agonists, long-acting muscarinic antagonists and inhaled corticosteroids) have provided encouraging results, showing for the first time a reduction in mortality compared to dual therapies. The aim of the present review is to summarise available data regarding mortality risk in COPD patients and to describe pharmacological therapies that have shown effectiveness in reducing mortality.

Efficacy of Acupuncture in Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Purpose

The effect of acupuncture as adjunctive therapy for acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) was controversial. Thus, we aimed to evaluate the effects of acupuncture for treating AECOPD.

Methods

Eight databases were searched from database inception to July 30, 2023. All RCTs compared acupuncture plus conventional western medicine with conventional western medicine alone were included. Outcomes were quality of life, lung function, blood oxygen condition, exercise capacity, daily symptoms, duration of hospitalization, and adverse events. The statistical analyses were conducted using Stata 17.0, and methodological quality was measured by the Cochrane bias risk assessment tool. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach was used to assess the quality of evidence.

Results

Twelve studies including 915 patients were included. Compared with conventional western medicine alone, acupuncture combined with conventional western therapy significantly improved quality of life (CAT: MD: -3.25; 95% CI: -3.73 to -2.78, P<0.001) and arterial blood gas (PaCO2: MD: -1.85; 95% CI: -2.74 to -0.95, P<0.001; PaO2: MD: 5.15; 95% CI: 1.22 to 9.07, P = 0.01). And for lung function, statistical benefits were found in FEV1/FVC (MD: 4.66; 95% CI: 2.21 to 7.12, P<0.001), but no difference was seen for FEV1% (MD: 1.83; 95% CI: -0.17 to 3.83, P = 0.073). There was no significant improvement in exercise capacity (6MWD: MD: 96.69; 95% CI: -0.60 to 193.98, P = 0.051), hospitalization duration (MD: -5.70; 95% CI: -11.97 to 0.58, P = 0.075), and dyspnea (mMRC: MD: -0.19; 95% CI: -0.61 to 0.63, P = 0.376) between two groups. Overall bias for CAT and mMRC was in "high" risk, FEV1%, FEV1/FVC, PaCO2, and PaO2 was in "some concern" and 1 RCT assessing hospitalization duration was in "low" risk. And the overall assessments were either moderate, low or very low certainty. Seven trials performed safety assessment of acupuncture, and no serious adverse events were reported.

Conclusion

Acupuncture might have auxiliary effects on AECOPD. However, the quality of the evidence is limited, and more high-quality RCTs are needed to be performed in the future.

Comprehensive Nomograms Using Routine Biomarkers Beyond Eosinophil Levels: Enhancing Predictability of Corticosteroid Treatment Outcomes in AECOPD

Purpose

Patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) exhibit heterogeneous responses to corticosteroid treatment. We aimed to determine whether combining eosinophil levels with other routine clinical indicators can enhance the predictability of corticosteroid treatment outcomes and to come up with a scoring system.

Patients and Methods

Consecutive patients admitted with AECOPD receiving corticosteroid treatment between July 2013 and March 2022 at Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital were retrospectively analyzed. Data on patients' demographics, smoking status, hospitalization for AECOPD in the previous year, comorbidities, blood laboratory tests, in-hospital treatment and clinical outcomes were collected. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and backward logistic regression were used for predictor selection, and predictive nomograms were developed. The discrimination and calibration of the nomograms were assessed using the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) and calibration plots. Internal validation was performed using the 500-bootstrap method, and clinical utility was evaluated using decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

Among the 3254 patients included, 804 (24.7%) had treatment failure. A nomogram of eosinophils, platelets, C-reactive protein (CRP), low density lipoprotein cholesterol, prognostic nutritional index (PNI), hospitalization for AECOPD in the previous year, ischemic heart diseases and chronic hepatic disease was developed to predict treatment failure for patients with a smoking history. For patients without a smoking history, a nomogram of CRP, PNI, ischemic heart diseases and chronic hepatic disease was developed. Although the AUCs of these two nomograms were only 0.644 and 0.647 respectively, they were significantly superior to predictions based solely on blood eosinophil levels.

Conclusion

We developed easy-to-use comprehensive nomograms utilizing readily available clinical biomarkers related to inflammation, nutrition and immunity, offering modestly enhanced predictive value for treatment outcomes in corticosteroid-treated patients with AECOPD. Further investigations into novel biomarkers and additional patient data are imperative to optimize the predictive performance.

Inhaled Corticosteroids in Subjects with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: An Old, Unfinished History

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is one of the major causes of disability and death. Maintenance use of inhaled bronchodilator(s) is the cornerstone of COPD pharmacological therapy, but inhaled corticosteroids (ICSs) are also commonly used. This narrative paper reviews the role of ICSs as maintenance treatment in combination with bronchodilators, usually in a single inhaler, in stable COPD subjects. The guidelines strongly recommend the addition of an ICS in COPD subjects with a history of concomitant asthma or as a step-up on the top of dual bronchodilators in the presence of hospitalization for exacerbation or at least two moderate exacerbations per year plus high blood eosinophil counts (≥300/mcl). This indication would only involve some COPD subjects. In contrast, in real life, triple inhaled therapy is largely used in COPD, independently of symptoms and in the presence of exacerbations. We will discuss the results of recent randomized controlled trials that found reduced all-cause mortality with triple inhaled therapy compared with dual inhaled long-acting bronchodilator therapy. ICS use is frequently associated with common local adverse events, such as dysphonia, oral candidiasis, and increased risk of pneumonia. Other side effects, such as systemic toxicity and unfavorable changes in the lung microbiome, are suspected mainly at higher doses of ICS in elderly COPD subjects with comorbidities, even if not fully demonstrated. We conclude that, contrary to real life, the use of ICS should be carefully evaluated in stable COPD patients.

Inhaled versus systemic corticosteroids for acute exacerbations of COPD: a systematic review and meta-analysis

This meta-analysis compares the efficacy and safety of inhaled versus systemic corticosteroids for COPD exacerbations.Following a pre-registered protocol, we appraised eligible randomised controlled trials (RCTs) according to Cochrane methodology, performed random-effects meta-analyses for all outcomes prioritised in the European Respiratory Society COPD core outcome set and rated the certainty of evidence as per Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation methodology.We included 20 RCTs totalling 2140 participants with moderate or severe exacerbations. All trials were at high risk of methodological bias. Low-certainty evidence did not reveal significant differences between inhaled and systemic corticosteroids for treatment failure rate (relative risk 1.75, 95% CI 0.76-4.02, n=569 participants); breathlessness (mean change: standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.11, 95% CI -0.36-0.15, n=239; post-treatment scores: SMD -0.18, 95% CI -0.41-0.05, n=293); serious adverse events (relative risk 1.47, 95% CI 0.56-3.88, n=246); or any other efficacy outcomes. Moderate-certainty evidence implied a tendency for fewer adverse events with inhaled compared to systemic corticosteroids (relative risk 0.80, 95% CI 0.64-1.0, n=480). Hyperglycaemia and oral fungal infections were observed more frequently with systemic and inhaled corticosteroids, respectively.Limited available evidence suggests potential noninferiority of inhaled to systemic corticosteroids in COPD exacerbations. Appropriately designed and powered RCTs are warranted to confirm these findings.

Lung Structure and Risk of Sleep Apnea in SPIROMICS

Rationale

The SubPopulations and InteRmediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study (SPIROMICS) is a prospective cohort study that enrolled 2981 participants with the goal of identifying new chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) subgroups and intermediate markers of disease progression. Individuals with COPD and obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) experience impaired quality of life and more frequent exacerbations. COPD severity also associates with computed tomography scan-based emphysema and alterations in airway dimensions.

Objectives

The objective was to determine whether the combination of lung function and structure influences the risk of OSA among current and former smokers.

Methods

Using 2 OSA risk scores, the Berlin Sleep Questionnaire (BSQ), and the DOISNORE50 (Diseases, Observed apnea, Insomnia, Snoring, Neck circumference > 18 inches, Obesity with body mass index [BMI] > 32, R = are you male, Excessive daytime sleepiness, 50 = age ≥ 50) (DIS), 1767 current and former smokers were evaluated for an association of lung structure and function with OSA risk.

Measurements and Main Results

The study cohort's mean age was 63 years, BMI was 28 kg/m2, and forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) was 74.8% predicted. The majority were male (55%), White (77%), former smokers (59%), and had COPD (63%). A high-risk OSA score was reported in 36% and 61% using DIS and BSQ respectively. There was a 9% increased odds of a high-risk DIS score (odds ratio [OR]=1.09, 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.03-1.14) and nominally increased odds of a high-risk BSQ score for every 10% decrease in FEV1 %predicted (OR=1.04, 95%CI: 0.998-1.09). Lung function-OSA risk associations persisted after additionally adjusting for lung structure measurements (%emphysema, %air trapping, parametric response mapping for functional small airways disease, , mean segmental wall area, tracheal %wall area, dysanapsis) for DIS (OR=1.12, 95%CI:1.03-1.22) and BSQ (OR=1.09, 95%CI:1.01-1.18).

Conclusions

Lower lung function independently associates with having high risk for OSA in current and former smokers. Lung structural elements, especially dysanapsis, functional small airways disease, and tracheal %wall area strengthened the effects on OSA risk.

Deep learning prediction of hospital readmissions for asthma and COPD

QUESTION

Severe asthma and COPD exacerbations requiring hospitalization are linked to increased disease morbidity and healthcare costs. We sought to identify Electronic Health Record (EHR) features of severe asthma and COPD exacerbations and evaluate the performance of four machine learning (ML) and one deep learning (DL) model in predicting readmissions using EHR data.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

Observational study between September 30, 2012, and December 31, 2017, of patients hospitalized with asthma and COPD exacerbations.

RESULTS

This study included 5,794 patients, 1,893 with asthma and 3,901 with COPD. Patients with asthma were predominantly female (n = 1288 [68%]), 35% were Black (n = 669), and 25% (n = 479) were Hispanic. Black (44 vs. 33%, p = 0.01) and Hispanic patients (30 vs. 24%, p = 0.02) were more likely to be readmitted for asthma. Similarly, patients with COPD readmissions included a large percentage of Blacks (18 vs. 10%, p < 0.01) and Hispanics (8 vs. 5%, p < 0.01). To identify patients at high risk of readmission index hospitalization data of a subset of 2,682 patients, 777 with asthma and 1,905 with COPD, was analyzed with four ML models, and one DL model. We found that multilayer perceptron, the DL method, had the best sensitivity and specificity compared to the four ML methods implemented in the same dataset.

INTERPRETATION

Multilayer perceptron, a deep learning method, had the best performance in predicting asthma and COPD readmissions, demonstrating that EHR and deep learning integration can improve high-risk patient detection.

Analyses of Factors Associated with Acute Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Review

Acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) is the exacerbation of a range of respiratory symptoms during the stable phase of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). AECOPD is thus a dangerous stage and key event in the course of COPD, as its deterioration and frequency seriously affects the quality of life of patients and shortens their survival. Acute exacerbations occur and develop due to many factors such as infection, tobacco smoke inhalation, air pollution, comorbidities, airflow limitation, various biomarkers, history of previous deterioration, natural killer cell abnormalities, immunoglobulin G deficiency, genetics, abnormal muscle and nutritional status, negative psychology, and seasonal temperature changes. There is relatively limited research on the impact of the role of standardized management on the alleviation of AECOPD. However, with the establishment of relevant prevention and management systems and the promotion of artificial intelligence technology and Internet medical approaches, long-term effective and standardized management of COPD patients may help to achieve the quality of life and disease prognosis in COPD patients and reduce the risk of AE.

Association of GLP-1 Receptor Agonists with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbations among Patients with Type 2 Diabetes

Rationale: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) have worse clinical outcomes compared with patients without metabolic dysregulation. GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide 1) receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) reduce asthma exacerbation risk and improve FVC in patients with COPD. Objectives: To determine whether GLP-1RA use is associated with reduced COPD exacerbation rates, and severe and moderate exacerbation risk, compared with other T2D therapies. Methods: A retrospective, observational, electronic health records-based study was conducted using an active comparator, new-user design of 1,642 patients with COPD in a U.S. health system from 2012 to 2022. The COPD cohort was identified using a previously validated machine learning algorithm that includes a natural language processing tool. Exposures were defined as prescriptions for GLP-1RAs (reference group), DPP-4 (dipeptidyl peptidase 4) inhibitors (DPP-4is), SGLT2 (sodium-glucose cotransporter 2) inhibitors, or sulfonylureas. Measurements and Main Results: Unadjusted COPD exacerbation counts were lower in GLP-1RA users. Adjusted exacerbation rates were significantly higher in DPP-4i (incidence rate ratio, 1.48 [95% confidence interval, 1.08-2.04]; P = 0.02) and sulfonylurea (incidence rate ratio, 2.09 [95% confidence interval, 1.62-2.69]; P < 0.0001) users compared with GLP-1RA users. GLP-1RA use was also associated with significantly reduced risk of severe exacerbations compared with DPP-4i and sulfonylurea use, and of moderate exacerbations compared with sulfonylurea use. After adjustment for clinical covariates, moderate exacerbation risk was also lower in GLP-1RA users compared with DPP-4i users. No statistically significant difference in exacerbation outcomes was seen between GLP-1RA and SGLT2 inhibitor users. Conclusions: Prospective studies of COPD exacerbations in patients with comorbid T2D are warranted. Additional research may elucidate the mechanisms underlying these observed associations with T2D medications.

Bu-Fei Yi-Shen Granules Reduce Acute Exacerbations in Patients with GOLD 3-4 COPD: A Randomized Controlled Trial

Purpose

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a disease characterized by frequent acute exacerbations (AEs), especially in severe and very severe cases. We aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of Bu-fei Yi-shen granules (BYGs) for COPD.

Patients and Methods

We conducted a multicenter, randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial of 348 COPD patients with GOLD 3-4 COPD. The patients were randomly assigned into experimental or control groups in a 1:1 ratio. Patients in the experimental group were prescribed BYG, while those in the control group were administered a placebo, orally, twice daily, with 5 days on and 2 days off per week for 52 weeks. The outcomes included AEs, pulmonary function, clinical signs and symptoms, dyspnea scores (mMRC), quality of life scores, and a 6-minute walk test (6MWT).

Results

A total of 280 patients completed the trial, including 135 patients in the experimental group and 145 in the control group. Compared to the control group, significant differences were observed in frequencies of AEs (mean difference: -0.35; 95% CI: -0.61, -0.10; P = 0.006) and AE-related hospitalizations (-0.18; 95% CI: -0.36, -0.01; P = 0.04), 6MWD (40.93 m; 95% CI: 32.03, 49.83; P < 0.001), mMRC (-0.57; 95% CI: -0.76, -0.37; P < 0.001), total symptoms (-2.18; 95% CI: -2.84, -1.53; P < 0.001), SF-36 (11.60; 95% CI: 8.23, 14.97; P < 0.001), and mCOPD-PRO (-0.45; 95% CI: -0.57, -0.33; P < 0.001) after treatment. However, there were no significant differences in mortality, pulmonary function, and mESQ-PRO scores (P > 0.05). No obvious adverse events were observed.

Conclusion

BYG, as compared to a placebo, could significantly reduce the frequencies of AEs and AE-related hospitalizations for GOLD 3-4 COPD patients. Clinical symptoms, treatment satisfaction, quality of life, and exercise capacity improved. There was no significant improvement in mortality and pulmonary function.

Acupuncture as adjunctive therapy for patients with AECOPD: study protocol for a multicenter, randomized controlled trial

Background

The acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) is a common respiratory disease among older adults, which imposes a significant burden on individuals and society and poses a major challenge to the global public health system due to its high morbidity and mortality. Acupuncture is effective for AECOPD, but its efficacy has been questioned due to the limited methodological quality. Thus, we aim to investigate the efficacy of acupuncture as adjunctive therapy for AECOPD and determine whether the efficacy of acupuncture differs with the type of acupoint combinations.

Methods and analysis

This study proposes a prospective, multicenter randomized controlled trial that will comprise four groups, including two acupuncture treatment groups, one sham acupuncture group, and one basic treatment group. The acupuncture treatment groups will be distinguished by their focus on different patterns of acupoint combination, namely the Xi-cleft and He-sea acupoint combination and the Eight Confluence points acupoint combination, which may vary in clinical efficacy based on traditional acupuncture theories. The study aims to randomize 556 patients in a 1:1:1:1 ratio across the four groups. Each patient in acupuncture group or sham acupuncture group will receive routine drug therapy and 7 sessions of acupuncture treatment over 1 week. Participants in the basic treatment group will only receive routine drug therapy. The trial will be conducted in seven hospitals located in China. The primary outcomes in this trial will include differences in the Breathlessness, Cough, and Sputum Scale (BCSS) before randomization, 7 days after randomization, 5 and 9 weeks after randomization.

Ethics and dissemination

Ethical approval was obtained from the Sichuan Regional Ethics Review of Committee on Traditional Chinese Medicine (Approval ID: 2022KL-068). The results of this study will be distributed through peer-reviewed journals.Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier ChiCTR2200064484.

DElaying Disease Progression In COPD with Early Initiation of Dual Bronchodilator or Triple Inhaled PharmacoTherapy (DEPICT): A Predictive Modelling Approach

INTRODUCTION

Clinical studies demonstrate an accelerated decline in lung function in patients with moderate chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease [GOLD] grade 2) versus severe and very severe COPD (GOLD grades 3 and 4). This predictive modelling study assessed the impact of initiating pharmacotherapy earlier versus later on long-term disease progression in COPD.

METHODS

The modelling approach used data on decline in forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) extracted from published studies to develop a longitudinal non-parametric superposition model of lung function decline with progressive impact of exacerbations from 0 per year to 3 per year and no ongoing pharmacotherapy. The model simulated decline in FEV1 and annual exacerbation rates from age 40 to 75 years in COPD with initiation of long-acting anti-muscarinic antagonist (LAMA)/long-acting beta2-agonist (LABA) (umeclidinium (UMEC)/vilanterol (VI)) or triple (inhaled corticosteroid (ICS)/LAMA/LABA; fluticasone furoate (FF)/UMEC/VI) therapy at 40, 55 or 65 years of age.

RESULTS

Model-predicted decline in FEV1 showed that, compared with 'no ongoing' therapy, initiation of triple or LAMA/LABA therapy at age 40, 55 or 65 years preserved an additional 469.7 mL or 236.0 mL, 327.5 mL or 203.3 mL, or 213.5 mL or 137.5 mL of lung function, respectively, by the age of 75. The corresponding average annual exacerbation rates were reduced from 1.57 to 0.91, 1.06 or 1.23 with triple therapy or to 1.2, 1.26 and 1.4 with LAMA/LABA therapy when initiated at 40, 55 or 65 years of age, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This modelling study suggests that earlier initiation of LAMA/LABA or triple therapy may have positive benefits in slowing disease progression in patients with COPD. Greater benefits were demonstrated with early initiation therapy with triple versus LAMA/LABA.

Year-to-year trajectories of hospital utilisation rates among patients with COPD: a real-world, single-centre, retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

The long-term clinical trajectory of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in terms of year-to-year hospital utilisation rates can be highly variable and is not well studied. We investigated year-to-year trends of hospitalisation or emergency department (ED) visits among patients with COPD over 3 years, identified distinct trajectories and examined associated predictive factors.

DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Data were extracted from the Changi General Hospital, Singapore COPD data warehouse.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with COPD aged ≥40 years with 3 years of follow-up data.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The yearly rates of hospitalisations or ED visits, stratified by COPD-related or all-cause, were described. Group-based trajectory modelling was used to identify clinically distinct trajectories year-by-year. Baseline predictive factors associated with different trajectories were examined.

RESULTS

In total, 396 patients were analysed (median age 70 years; 87% male). Four trajectories were generated for year-to-year trends in COPD-related hospitalisations/ED visits (C1-C4: consistently frequent, consistently infrequent, improving and worsening); post-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) was a significant predictor of trajectory, with worse lung function being the main factor associated with less favourable trajectories. For all-cause hospitalisations/ED visits, four trajectories were identified (A1-A4: infrequent and stable, frequent and stable, frequent and decreasing, frequent and increasing); significant differences in age (p=0.041), sex (p=0.016) and ethnicity (p=0.005) were found between trajectories. Higher overall comorbidity burden was a key determinant in less favourable trajectories of all-cause hospitalisations/ED visits.

CONCLUSIONS

Distinct trajectories were demonstrated for hospitalisations/ED visits related to COPD or all causes, with predictive associations between FEV1 and COPD trajectory and between comorbidities and all-cause trajectory. Trajectories carry nuanced prognostic information and may be useful for clinical risk stratification to identify high-risk individuals for preventative treatments.

Mortality in non-exacerbating COPD: a longitudinal analysis of UK primary care data

INTRODUCTION

Non-exacerbating patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are a less studied phenotype. We investigated clinical characteristics, mortality rates and causes of death among non-exacerbating compared with exacerbating patients with COPD.

METHODS

We used data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, Hospital Episode Statistics and Office for National Statistics between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2018. Ever smokers with a COPD diagnosis with minimum 3 years of baseline information were included. We compared overall using Cox regression and cause-specific mortality rates using competing risk analysis, adjusted for age, sex, deprivation, smoking status, body mass index, GOLD stage and comorbidities. Causes of death were identified using International Classification of Diseases-10 codes.

RESULTS

Among 67 516 patients, 17.3% did not exacerbate during the 3-year baseline period. Mean follow-up was 4 years. Non-exacerbators were more likely to be male (63.3% vs 52.4%, p<0.001) and less often had a history of asthma (33.9% vs 43.6%, p<0.001) or FEV1<50% predicted (23.7 vs 31.8%) compared with exacerbators. Adjusted HR for overall mortality in non-exacerbators compared with exacerbators was 0.62 (95% CI 0.56 to 0.70) in the first year of follow-up and 0.87 (95% CI 0.83 to 0.91) thereafter. Non-exacerbating patients with COPD died less of respiratory causes than exacerbators (29.2% vs 40.3%) and more of malignancies (29.4% vs 23.4%) and cardiovascular diseases (26.2% vs 22.9%). HRs for malignant and circulatory causes of death were increased after the first year of follow-up.

DISCUSSION

In this primary care cohort, non-exacerbators showed distinct clinical characteristics and lower mortality rates. Non-exacerbators were equally likely to die of respiratory, malignant or cardiovascular diseases.

Causes of and Clinical Features Associated with Death in Tobacco Cigarette Users by Lung Function Impairment

Rationale: Cigarette smoking contributes to the risk of death through different mechanisms. Objectives: To determine how causes of and clinical features associated with death vary in tobacco cigarette users by lung function impairment. Methods: We stratified current and former tobacco cigarette users enrolled in Genetic Epidemiology of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPDGene) into normal spirometry, PRISm (Preserved Ratio Impaired Spirometry), Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 1-2 COPD, and GOLD 3-4 COPD. Deaths were identified via longitudinal follow-up and Social Security Death Index search. Causes of death were adjudicated after a review of death certificates, medical records, and next-of-kin interviews. We tested associations between baseline clinical variables and all-cause mortality using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Measurements and Main Results: Over a 10.1-year median follow-up, 2,200 deaths occurred among 10,132 participants (age 59.5 ± 9.0 yr; 46.6% women). Death from cardiovascular disease was most frequent in PRISm (31% of deaths). Lung cancer deaths were most frequent in GOLD 1-2 (18% of deaths vs. 9-11% in other groups). Respiratory deaths outpaced competing causes of death in GOLD 3-4, particularly when BODE index ⩾7. St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire score ⩾25 was associated with higher mortality in all groups: Hazard ratio (HR), 1.48 (1.20-1.84) normal spirometry; HR, 1.40 (1.05-1.87) PRISm; HR, 1.80 (1.49-2.17) GOLD 1-2; HR, 1.65 (1.26-2.17) GOLD 3-4. History of respiratory exacerbations was associated with higher mortality in GOLD 1-2 and GOLD 3-4, quantitative emphysema in GOLD 1-2, and airway wall thickness in PRISm and GOLD 3-4. Conclusions: Leading causes of death vary by lung function impairment in tobacco cigarette users. Worse respiratory-related quality of life is associated with all-cause mortality regardless of lung function.

Blood Gene Expression and Immune Cell Subtypes Associated with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbations

Rationale: Acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AE-COPDs) are associated with a significant disease burden. Blood immune phenotyping may improve our understanding of a COPD endotype at increased risk of exacerbations. Objective: To determine the relationship between the transcriptome of circulating leukocytes and COPD exacerbations. Methods: Blood RNA sequencing data (n = 3,618) from the COPDGene (Genetic Epidemiology of COPD) study were analyzed. Blood microarray data (n = 646) from the ECLIPSE (Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints) study were used for validation. We tested the association between blood gene expression and AE-COPDs. We imputed the abundance of leukocyte subtypes and tested their association with prospective AE-COPDs. Flow cytometry was performed on blood in SPIROMICS (Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcomes in COPD Study) (n = 127), and activation markers for T cells were tested for association with prospective AE-COPDs. Measurements and Main Results: Exacerbations were reported 4,030 and 2,368 times during follow-up in COPDGene (5.3 ± 1.7 yr) and ECLIPSE (3 yr), respectively. We identified 890, 675, and 3,217 genes associated with a history of AE-COPDs, persistent exacerbations (at least one exacerbation per year), and prospective exacerbation rate, respectively. In COPDGene, the number of prospective exacerbations in patients with COPD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease stage ⩾2) was negatively associated with circulating CD8+ T cells, CD4+ T cells, and resting natural killer cells. The negative association with naive CD4+ T cells was replicated in ECLIPSE. In the flow-cytometry study, an increase in CTLA4 on CD4+ T cells was positively associated with AE-COPDs. Conclusions: Individuals with COPD with lower circulating lymphocyte counts, particularly decreased CD4+ T cells, are more susceptible to AE-COPDs, including persistent exacerbations.

Review of the health-promoting effects of exercise and the involvement of myokines

Exercise reduces the risk of obesity-based, lifestyle-related diseases, such as metabolic abnormalities and cardiovascular diseases. The present review covers the health-promoting effects of exercise from the point of view of the physiologically active factor myokine, which is secreted by skeletal muscle, and focuses on the skeletal muscle as a new endocrine organ. Myokines have various effects, such as preventing metabolic syndrome by breaking down fat, preventing diabetes by improving glucose metabolism, and preventing progression of arteriosclerosis, dementia, and osteoporosis by enhancing bone metabolism. These substances also stabilize blood pressure, prevent cancer, increase immunity against infections, and prevent the development of age-associated diseases. Myokines are secreted by skeletal muscle into blood vessels, allowing them to exert systemic endocrine effects in organs throughout the body. Myokines are involved in bodily homeostasis and adaptation to the environment, and function by a mechanism similar to that of the skeletal muscle mass regulatory mechanism. Determining the relationships between multiple organs and their biological significance is important for exercise and health research. Progress in this field is expected to result in the identification of pathological mechanisms of action, development of new drugs, evaluation of the effectiveness of biomarkers over a wide range, and future improvement in healthcare.

Longitudinal Follow-Up of Participants With Tobacco Exposure and Preserved Spirometry

Importance

People who smoked cigarettes may experience respiratory symptoms without spirometric airflow obstruction. These individuals are typically excluded from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) trials and lack evidence-based therapies.

Objective

To define the natural history of persons with tobacco exposure and preserved spirometry (TEPS) and symptoms (symptomatic TEPS).

Design, Setting, and Participants

SPIROMICS II was an extension of SPIROMICS I, a multicenter study of persons aged 40 to 80 years who smoked cigarettes (>20 pack-years) with or without COPD and controls without tobacco exposure or airflow obstruction. Participants were enrolled in SPIROMICS I and II from November 10, 2010, through July 31, 2015, and followed up through July 31, 2021.

Exposures

Participants in SPIROMICS I underwent spirometry, 6-minute walk distance testing, assessment of respiratory symptoms, and computed tomography of the chest at yearly visits for 3 to 4 years. Participants in SPIROMICS II had 1 additional in-person visit 5 to 7 years after enrollment in SPIROMICS I. Respiratory symptoms were assessed with the COPD Assessment Test (range, 0 to 40; higher scores indicate more severe symptoms). Participants with symptomatic TEPS had normal spirometry (postbronchodilator ratio of forced expiratory volume in the first second [FEV1] to forced vital capacity >0.70) and COPD Assessment Test scores of 10 or greater. Participants with asymptomatic TEPS had normal spirometry and COPD Assessment Test scores of less than 10. Patient-reported respiratory symptoms and exacerbations were assessed every 4 months via phone calls.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was assessment for accelerated decline in lung function (FEV1) in participants with symptomatic TEPS vs asymptomatic TEPS. Secondary outcomes included development of COPD defined by spirometry, respiratory symptoms, rates of respiratory exacerbations, and progression of computed tomographic-defined airway wall thickening or emphysema.

Results

Of 1397 study participants, 226 had symptomatic TEPS (mean age, 60.1 [SD, 9.8] years; 134 were women [59%]) and 269 had asymptomatic TEPS (mean age, 63.1 [SD, 9.1] years; 134 were women [50%]). At a median follow-up of 5.76 years, the decline in FEV1 was -31.3 mL/y for participants with symptomatic TEPS vs -38.8 mL/y for those with asymptomatic TEPS (between-group difference, -7.5 mL/y [95% CI, -16.6 to 1.6 mL/y]). The cumulative incidence of COPD was 33.0% among participants with symptomatic TEPS vs 31.6% among those with asymptomatic TEPS (hazard ratio, 1.05 [95% CI, 0.76 to 1.46]). Participants with symptomatic TEPS had significantly more respiratory exacerbations than those with asymptomatic TEPS (0.23 vs 0.08 exacerbations per person-year, respectively; rate ratio, 2.38 [95% CI, 1.71 to 3.31], P < .001).

Conclusions and Relevance

Participants with symptomatic TEPS did not have accelerated rates of decline in FEV1 or increased incidence of COPD vs those with asymptomatic TEPS, but participants with symptomatic TEPS did experience significantly more respiratory exacerbations over a median follow-up of 5.8 years.

Classification of COPD as ABCD according to GOLD 2011 and 2017 versions in COPD patients at University Medical Center in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

In 2017, Global Initiative for Chronic Lung Disease (GOLD) made substantial changes to its ABCD group categorization. Although several studies had been conducted to assess the impact of the new GOLD category, there was no research on the change of the GOLD classification in Vietnam. This retrospective analysis was conducted at Asthma and COPD clinic at the University Medical Center in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Our study population comprised patients visiting Medical Center from January 2018 to January 2020. We categorized patients' demographic, clinical characteristics and pharmacotherapy based on GOLD 2011 and 2017 guidelines. A comparison between the two versions was also determined. A total of 457 patients were included in this study. The percentage of groups A, B, C and D according to GOLD 2011 was 5%, 20.8%, 13.1% and 61.1%; and according to GOLD 2017 was 6.1%, 34.1%, 12% and 47.8%, respectively. In terms of gender, male patients constituted nearly 95% of the study's population (433/457 patients). Regarding pharmacotherapy, approximately 20% of the low-risk group (group A-B) was overtreated with ICS components: LABA+ICS (15.8%) and LAMA+LABA+ICS (3.8%). There were 13.3% and 1.1% of patients transferred from D to B and from C to A, respectively. All of them had lower FVC% pred, FEV1% pred and FEV1/FVC than the patients remained in group B or A (p<0.005). This is the first research in Vietnam to show the distribution of COPD patients using both the GOLD 2011 and GOLD 2017 criteria. There was 14% of patients reclassified from high-risk groups to low-risk groups when changing from 2011 to 2017 version and discordance of medications between guidelines and real-life practice. Therefore, clinicians should use their clinical competence to consider patients' conditions before deciding the appropriate therapeutic approach. Consequently, further studies were required to evaluate the effect of the change in GOLD classification.

The Experiences of Individuals with a History of Acute Exacerbations of COPD and Their Thoughts on Death: Empirical Qualitative Research

Background

The most important problem of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients is acute exacerbation. Researching this experience and examining its relationship with death is extremely important in patient care.

Methods

This study was conducted to reveal the experiences of individuals with a history of acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPDs) and their thoughts on death by qualitative empirical research. The study was conducted in a pulmonology clinic between July and September 2022. In-depth face-to-face interviews were conducted with patients in their rooms using a semi-structured form created specifically for the study and used as a data collection tool. With patient consent, interviews were recorded and documented. During the data analysis phase, the Colaizzi method was used. The study was presented in accordance with the Consolidated Criteria for Reporting Qualitative Research (COREQ) checklist for qualitative research.

Results

The study was completed with 15 patients. A total of 13 of the patients were male and the mean age was 65 years. Patient statements were coded after the interviews and collected under 11 sub-themes. These sub-themes were categorized under the following main themes: recognizing AECOPDs, AECOPD instant experiences, post-AECOPD, and thoughts on death.

Conclusion

Patients were able to recognize the symptoms of an AECOPD, that the severity of the symptoms increased during the exacerbation, that they felt regret or anxiety about re-exacerbation, and that all of these factors contributed to their fear of death.

The Experiences of Individuals with a History of Acute Exacerbations of COPD and Their Thoughts on Death: Empirical Qualitative Research

Background

The most important problem of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients is acute exacerbation. Researching this experience and examining its relationship with death is extremely important in patient care.

Methods

This study was conducted to reveal the experiences of individuals with a history of acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPDs) and their thoughts on death by qualitative empirical research. The study was conducted in a pulmonology clinic between July and September 2022. In-depth face-to-face interviews were conducted with patients in their rooms using a semi-structured form created specifically for the study and used as a data collection tool. With patient consent, interviews were recorded and documented. During the data analysis phase, the Colaizzi method was used. The study was presented in accordance with the Consolidated Criteria for Reporting Qualitative Research (COREQ) checklist for qualitative research.

Results

The study was completed with 15 patients. A total of 13 of the patients were male and the mean age was 65 years. Patient statements were coded after the interviews and collected under 11 sub-themes. These sub-themes were categorized under the following main themes: recognizing AECOPDs, AECOPD instant experiences, post-AECOPD, and thoughts on death.

Conclusion

Patients were able to recognize the symptoms of an AECOPD, that the severity of the symptoms increased during the exacerbation, that they felt regret or anxiety about re-exacerbation, and that all of these factors contributed to their fear of death.

COPD Phenotyping

COPD is a heterogeneous condition, the onset and trajectory of which is influenced not only by tobacco exposure but also an individual's genetics and the exposures they accumulate over their life course. In such a complex chronic disease, phenotyping individuals based on similar clinical or molecular characteristics can aid in guiding appropriate therapeutic management. Treatable traits, characteristics for which evidence exists for a specific favorable treatment response, are increasingly incorporated into COPD clinical guidelines. But the COPD phenotyping literature is evolving. Innovations in lung imaging and physiologic metrics, as well as omics technologies and biomarker science, are contributing to a better understanding of COPD heterogeneity. This review summarizes the evolution of COPD phenotyping, the current use of phenotyping to direct clinical care, and how innovations in clinical and molecular approaches to unraveling disease heterogeneity are refining our understanding of COPD phenotypes.

Genetic regulators of sputum mucin concentration and their associations with COPD phenotypes

Hyper-secretion and/or hyper-concentration of mucus is a defining feature of multiple obstructive lung diseases, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Mucus itself is composed of a mixture of water, ions, salt and proteins, of which the gel-forming mucins, MUC5AC and MUC5B, are the most abundant. Recent studies have linked the concentrations of these proteins in sputum to COPD phenotypes, including chronic bronchitis (CB) and acute exacerbations (AE). We sought to determine whether common genetic variants influence sputum mucin concentrations and whether these variants are also associated with COPD phenotypes, specifically CB and AE. We performed a GWAS to identify quantitative trait loci for sputum mucin protein concentration (pQTL) in the Sub-Populations and InteRmediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study (SPIROMICS, n = 708 for total mucin, n = 215 for MUC5AC, MUC5B). Subsequently, we tested for associations of mucin pQTL with CB and AE using regression modeling (n = 822-1300). Replication analysis was conducted using data from COPDGene (n = 5740) and by examining results from the UK Biobank. We identified one genome-wide significant pQTL for MUC5AC (rs75401036) and two for MUC5B (rs140324259, rs10001928). The strongest association for MUC5B, with rs140324259 on chromosome 11, explained 14% of variation in sputum MUC5B. Despite being associated with lower MUC5B, the C allele of rs140324259 conferred increased risk of CB (odds ratio (OR) = 1.42; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.10-1.80) as well as AE ascertained over three years of follow up (OR = 1.41; 95% CI: 1.02-1.94). Associations between rs140324259 and CB or AE did not replicate in COPDGene. However, in the UK Biobank, rs140324259 was associated with phenotypes that define CB, namely chronic mucus production and cough, again with the C allele conferring increased risk. We conclude that sputum MUC5AC and MUC5B concentrations are associated with common genetic variants, and the top locus for MUC5B may influence COPD phenotypes, in particular CB.

Association of rural living with COPD-related hospitalizations and deaths in US veterans

It is unclear whether the high burden of COPD in rural areas is related to worse outcomes in patients with COPD or is because the prevalence of COPD is higher in rural areas. We assessed the association of rural living with acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPDs)-related hospitalization and mortality. We retrospectively analyzed Veterans Affairs (VA) and Medicare data of a nationwide cohort of veterans with COPD aged ≥ 65 years with COPD diagnosis between 2011 and 2014 that had follow-up data until 2017. Patients were categorized based on residential location into urban, rural, and isolated rural. We used generalized linear and Cox proportional hazards models to assess the association of residential location with AECOPD-related hospitalizations and long-term mortality. Of 152,065 patients, 80,162 (52.7%) experienced at least one AECOPD-related hospitalization. After adjusting for demographics and comorbidities, rural living was associated with fewer hospitalizations (relative risk-RR = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.89-0.91; P < 0.001) but isolated rural living was not associated with hospitalizations. Only after accounting for travel time to the closest VA medical center, neighborhood disadvantage, and air quality, isolated rural living was associated with more AECOPD-related hospitalizations (RR = 1.07; 95% CI: 1.05-1.09; P < 0.001). Mortality did not vary between rural and urban living patients. Our findings suggest that other aspects than hospital care may be responsible for the excess of hospitalizations in isolated rural patients like poor access to appropriate outpatient care.

Reduced quantity and function of pneumococcal antibodies are associated with exacerbations of COPD in SPIROMICS

While hypogammaglobulinemia is associated with COPD exacerbations, it is unknown whether frequent exacerbators have specific defects in antibody production/function. We hypothesized that reduced quantity/function of serum pneumococcal antibodies correlate with exacerbation risk in the SPIROMICS cohort. We measured total pneumococcal IgG in n = 764 previously vaccinated participants with COPD. In a propensity-matched subset of n = 200 with vaccination within five years (n = 50 without exacerbations in the previous year; n = 75 with one, n = 75 with ≥2), we measured pneumococcal IgG for 23 individual serotypes, and pneumococcal antibody function for 4 serotypes. Higher total pneumococcal IgG, serotype-specific IgG (17/23 serotypes), and antibody function (3/4 serotypes) were independently associated with fewer prior exacerbations. Higher pneumococcal IgG (5/23 serotypes) predicted lower exacerbation risk in the following year. Pneumococcal antibodies are inversely associated with exacerbations, supporting the presence of immune defects in frequent exacerbators. With further study, pneumococcal antibodies may be useful biomarkers for immune dysfunction in COPD.

Machine learning for screening of at-risk, mild and moderate COPD patients at risk of FEV1 decline: results from COPDGene and SPIROMICS

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to train and validate machine learning models for predicting rapid decline of forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) in individuals with a smoking history at-risk-for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD 0), or with mild-to-moderate (GOLD 1-2) COPD. We trained multiple models to predict rapid FEV1 decline using demographic, clinical and radiologic biomarker data. Training and internal validation data were obtained from the COPDGene study and prediction models were validated against the SPIROMICS cohort. Methods: We used GOLD 0-2 participants (n = 3,821) from COPDGene (60.0 ± 8.8 years, 49.9% male) for variable selection and model training. Accelerated lung function decline was defined as a mean drop in FEV1% predicted of > 1.5%/year at 5-year follow-up. We built logistic regression models predicting accelerated decline based on 22 chest CT imaging biomarker, pulmonary function, symptom, and demographic features. Models were validated using n = 885 SPIROMICS subjects (63.6 ± 8.6 years, 47.8% male). Results: The most important variables for predicting FEV1 decline in GOLD 0 participants were bronchodilator responsiveness (BDR), post bronchodilator FEV1% predicted (FEV1.pp.post), and CT-derived expiratory lung volume; among GOLD 1 and 2 subjects, they were BDR, age, and PRMlower lobes fSAD. In the validation cohort, GOLD 0 and GOLD 1-2 full variable models had significant predictive performance with AUCs of 0.620 ± 0.081 (p = 0.041) and 0.640 ± 0.059 (p < 0.001). Subjects with higher model-derived risk scores had significantly greater odds of FEV1 decline than those with lower scores. Conclusion: Predicting FEV1 decline in at-risk patients remains challenging but a combination of clinical, physiologic and imaging variables provided the best performance across two COPD cohorts.

Early diagnostic BioMARKers in exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: protocol of the exploratory, prospective, longitudinal, single-centre, observational MARKED study

INTRODUCTION

Acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) play a pivotal role in the burden and progressive course of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). As such, disease management is predominantly based on the prevention of these episodes of acute worsening of respiratory symptoms. However, to date, personalised prediction and early and accurate diagnosis of AECOPD remain unsuccessful. Therefore, the current study was designed to explore which frequently measured biomarkers can predict an AECOPD and/or respiratory infection in patients with COPD. Moreover, the study aims to increase our understanding of the heterogeneity of AECOPD as well as the role of microbial composition and hostmicrobiome interactions to elucidate new disease biology in COPD.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The 'Early diagnostic BioMARKers in Exacerbations of COPD' study is an exploratory, prospective, longitudinal, single-centre, observational study with 8-week follow-up enrolling up to 150 patients with COPD admitted to inpatient pulmonary rehabilitation at Ciro (Horn, the Netherlands). Respiratory symptoms, vitals, spirometry and nasopharyngeal, venous blood, spontaneous sputum and stool samples will be frequently collected for exploratory biomarker analysis, longitudinal characterisation of AECOPD (ie, clinical, functional and microbial) and to identify host-microbiome interactions. Genomic sequencing will be performed to identify mutations associated with increased risk of AECOPD and microbial infections. Predictors of time-to-first AECOPD will be modelled using Cox proportional hazards' regression. Multiomic analyses will provide a novel integration tool to generate predictive models and testable hypotheses about disease causation and predictors of disease progression.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This protocol was approved by the Medical Research Ethics Committees United (MEC-U), Nieuwegein, the Netherlands (NL71364.100.19).

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT05315674.

COPD: Providing the right treatment for the right patient at the right time

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a common disease associated with significant morbidity and mortality that is both preventable and treatable. However, a major challenge in recognizing, preventing, and treating COPD is understanding its complexity. While COPD has historically been characterized as a disease defined by airflow limitation, we now understand it as a multi-component disease with many clinical phenotypes, systemic manifestations, and associated co-morbidities. Evidence is rapidly emerging in our understanding of the many factors that contribute to the pathogenesis of COPD and the identification of "early" or "pre-COPD" which should provide exciting opportunities for early treatment and disease modification. In addition to breakthroughs in our understanding of the origins of COPD, we are optimizing treatment strategies and delivery of care that are showing impressive benefits in patient-centered outcomes and healthcare utilization. This special issue of Respiratory Medicine, "COPD: Providing the Right Treatment for the Right Patient at the Right Time" is a summary of the proceedings of a conference held in Stresa, Italy in April 2022 that brought together international experts to discuss emerging evidence in COPD and Pulmonary Rehabilitation in honor of a distinguished friend and colleague, Claudio Ferdinando Donor (1948-2021). Claudio was a true pioneer in the field of pulmonary rehabilitation and the comprehensive care of individuals with COPD. He held numerous leadership roles in in the field, provide editorial stewardship of several respiratory journals, authored numerous papers, statement and guidelines in COPD and Pulmonary Rehabilitation, and provided mentorship to many in our field. Claudio's most impressive talent was his ability to organize spectacular conferences and symposia that highlighted cutting edge science and clinical medicine. It is in this spirit that this conference was conceived and planned. These proceedings are divided into 4 sections which highlight crucial areas in the field of COPD: (1) New concepts in COPD pathogenesis; (2) Enhancing outcomes in COPD; (3) Non-pharmacologic management of COPD; and (4) Optimizing delivery of care for COPD. These presentations summarize the newest evidence in the field and capture lively discussion on the exciting future of treating this prevalent and impactful disease. We thank each of the authors for their participation and applaud their efforts toward pushing the envelope in our understanding of COPD and optimizing care for these patients. We believe that this edition is a most fitting tribute to a dear colleague and friend and will prove useful to students, clinicians, and researchers as they continually strive to provide the right treatment for the right patient at the right time. It has been our pleasure and a distinct honor to serve as editors and oversee such wonderful scholarly work.

Predicting severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations using quantitative CT: a retrospective model development and external validation study

BACKGROUND

Quantitative CT is becoming increasingly common for the characterisation of lung disease; however, its added potential as a clinical tool for predicting severe exacerbations remains understudied. We aimed to develop and validate quantitative CT-based models for predicting severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations.

METHODS

We analysed the Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures In COPD Study (SPIROMICS) cohort, a multicentre study done at 12 clinical sites across the USA, of individuals aged 40-80 years from four strata: individuals who never smoked, individuals who smoked but had normal spirometry, individuals who smoked and had mild to moderate COPD, and individuals who smoked and had severe COPD. We used 3-year follow-up data to develop logistic regression classifiers for predicting severe exacerbations. Predictors included age, sex, race, BMI, pulmonary function, exacerbation history, smoking status, respiratory quality of life, and CT-based measures of density gradient texture and airway structure. We externally validated our models in a subset from the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene) cohort. Discriminative model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), which was also compared with other predictors, including exacerbation history and the BMI, airflow obstruction, dyspnoea, and exercise capacity (BODE) index. We evaluated model calibration using calibration plots and Brier scores.

FINDINGS

Participants in SPIROMICS were enrolled between Nov 12, 2010, and July 31, 2015. Participants in COPDGene were enrolled between Jan 10, 2008, and April 15, 2011. We included 1956 participants from the SPIROMICS cohort who had complete 3-year follow-up data: the mean age of the cohort was 63·1 years (SD 9·2) and 1017 (52%) were men and 939 (48%) were women. Among the 1956 participants, 434 (22%) had a history of at least one severe exacerbation. For the CT-based models, the AUC was 0·854 (95% CI 0·852-0·855) for at least one severe exacerbation within 3 years and 0·931 (0·930-0·933) for consistent exacerbations (defined as ≥1 acute episode in each of the 3 years). Models were well calibrated with low Brier scores (0·121 for at least one severe exacerbation; 0·039 for consistent exacerbations). For the prediction of at least one severe event during 3-year follow-up, AUCs were significantly higher with CT biomarkers (0·854 [0·852-0·855]) than exacerbation history (0·823 [0·822-0·825]) and BODE index 0·812 [0·811-0·814]). 6965 participants were included in the external validation cohort, with a mean age of 60·5 years (SD 8·9). In this cohort, AUC for at least one severe exacerbation was 0·768 (0·767-0·769; Brier score 0·088).

INTERPRETATION

CT-based prediction models can be used for identification of patients with COPD who are at high risk of severe exacerbations. The newly identified CT biomarkers could potentially enable investigation into underlying disease mechanisms responsible for exacerbations.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health and the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

A Computer-based Analysis for Identification and Quantification of Small Airway Disease in Lung Computed Tomography Images: A Comprehensive Review for Radiologists

Computed tomography (CT) imaging is being increasingly used in clinical practice for detailed characterization of lung diseases. Respiratory diseases involve various components of the lung, including the small airways. Evaluation of small airway disease on CT images is challenging as the airways cannot be visualized directly by a CT scanner. Small airway disease can manifest as pulmonary air trapping (AT). Although AT may be sometimes seen as mosaic attenuation on expiratory CT images, it is difficult to identify diffuse AT visually. Computer technology advances over the past decades have provided methods for objective quantification of small airway disease on CT images. Quantitative CT (QCT) methods are being rapidly developed to quantify underlying lung diseases with greater precision than subjective visual assessment of CT images. A growing body of evidence suggests that QCT methods can be practical tools in the clinical setting to identify and quantify abnormal regions of the lung accurately and reproducibly. This review aimed to describe the available methods for the identification and quantification of small airway disease on CT images and to discuss the challenges of implementing QCT metrics in clinical care for patients with small airway disease.

Adherence to Long-Acting Inhaler Use for Initial Treatment and Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Retrospective Cohort Study

We aimed to determine the effect of long-acting inhaler use adherence on acute exacerbations in treatment-naïve patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) using claims data from the Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service from July 2015−December 2016. Patients with COPD aged ≥ 40 years who used long-acting inhalers were enrolled and observed for 6 months. Medication adherence was determined by the medication possession ratio (MPR); patients were categorized to adherence (MPR ≥ 80%) and non-adherence (MPR < 80%) groups. Ultimately, 3959 patients were enrolled: 60.4% and 39.6% in the adherence and non-adherence groups, respectively. The relative risk of acute exacerbation in the non-adherence group was 1.58 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.25−1.99) compared with the adherence group. The adjusted logistic regression analysis revealed a relative risk of acute exacerbation in the non-adherence vs. adherence group of 1.68 (95% CI 1.32−2.14) regarding the number of inhalers used. Poor adherence to long-acting inhalers influenced increased acute exacerbation rates among patients with COPD. The acute exacerbation of COPD risk requiring hospitalization or ED visits was high in the non-adherence group, suggesting that efforts to improve medication adherence may help reduce COPD exacerbations even in the initial management of treatment-naïve patients.

Generalizability of Risk Stratification Algorithms for Exacerbations in COPD

BACKGROUND

Contemporary management of COPD relies on exacerbation history to risk-stratify patients for future exacerbations. Multivariate prediction models can improve the performance of risk stratification. However, the clinical usefulness of risk stratification can vary from one population to another.

RESEARCH QUESTION

How do two validated exacerbation risk prediction models (Acute COPD Exacerbation Prediction Tool [ACCEPT] and the Bertens model) compared with exacerbation history alone perform in different patient populations?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

We used data from three clinical studies representing populations at different levels of moderate to severe exacerbation risk: the Study to Understand Mortality and Morbidity in COPD (SUMMIT; N = 2,421; annual risk, 0.22), the Long-term Oxygen Treatment Trial (LOTT; N = 595; annual risk, 0.38), and Towards a Revolution in COPD Health (TORCH; N = 1,091; annual risk, 0.52). We compared the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and net benefit (measure of clinical usefulness) among three risk stratification algorithms for predicting exacerbations in the next 12 months. We also evaluated the effect of model recalibration on clinical usefulness.

RESULTS

Compared with exacerbation history, ACCEPT showed better performance in all three samples (change in AUC, 0.08, 0.07, and 0.10, respectively; P ≤ .001 for all). The Bertens model showed better performance compared with exacerbation history in SUMMIT and TORCH (change in AUC, 0.10 and 0.05, respectively; P < .001 for both), but not in LOTT. No algorithm was superior in clinical usefulness across all samples. Before recalibration, the Bertens model generally outperformed the other algorithms in low-risk settings, whereas ACCEPT outperformed others in high-risk settings. All three algorithms showed the risk of harm (providing lower net benefit than not using any risk stratification). After recalibration, risk of harm was mitigated substantially for both prediction models.

INTERPRETATION

Exacerbation history alone is unlikely to provide clinical usefulness for predicting COPD exacerbations in all settings and could be associated with a risk of harm. Prediction models have superior predictive performance, but require setting-specific recalibration to confer higher clinical usefulness.

MRI-assessed diaphragmatic function can predict frequent acute exacerbation of COPD: a prospective observational study based on telehealth-based monitoring system

BACKGROUND

Acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) have considerably high mortality and re-hospitalisation rate. Diaphragmatic dysfunction (DD) is common in COPD patients. However, whether diaphragmatic dysfunction is related to acute exacerbation is yet to be elucidated. This study aimed to evaluate the diaphragm function by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in COPD patients and assess whether the impact of DD may help predict AECOPD.

METHODS

20 healthy adult volunteers and 80 COPD patients were enrolled. The diaphragms function parameters were accessed by MRI. Patients were guided to start self-management by the Telehealth-based monitoring system following the enrolment. Events of acute exacerbation of COPD were recorded by the system and confirmed by healthcare providers. Binary univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to investigate the factors associated with the frequency of AECOPD. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were further used to assess the value of prediction indexes.

RESULTS

Fifty-nine COPD patients completed a one-year follow-up based on the Telehealth-based monitoring system. The clinical outcomes showed that the diaphragm function parameters at the end of maximal breathing were lower in the COPD group than in the healthy control group (P < 0.05). ANOVA showed significant differences among Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) stages for diaphragm function parameters, including chest wall motion, lung area, upper-lower diameter, and the diaphragm thickening fraction at the end of maximal breathing (P < 0.05). Moreover, significant differences in diaphragm function parameters were observed between patients with infrequent AECOPD (n = 28) and frequent AECOPD (n = 31) based on the frequency of AECOPD (P < 0.05). The diaphragm thickening fraction and the chest wall motion were associated with AECOPD after adjusting for age, sex, BMI, and lung functions, and the combination of predictions showed better accuracy in predicting the frequency of AECOPD.

CONCLUSIONS

In COPD patients, diaphragm function parameters correlate with the severity of airflow limitation. The diaphragm thickening fraction and the chest wall motion were associated with the frequency of AECOPD and can predict it.

Functional Predictors Discriminating Asthma-COPD Overlap (ACO) from Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD)

Background

A significant proportion of patients with obstructive lung disease have clinical and functional features of both asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), referred to as the asthma–COPD overlap (ACO). The distinction of these phenotypes, however, is not yet well-established due to the lack of defining clinical and/or functional criteria. The aim of our investigations was to assess the discriminating power of various lung function parameters on the assessment of ACO.

Methods

From databases of 4 pulmonary centers, a total of 540 patients (231 males, 309 females), including 372 patients with asthma, 77 patients with ACO and 91 patients with COPD, were retrospectively collected, and gradients among combinations of explanatory variables of spirometric (FEV₁, FEV₁/FVC, FEF_25-75), plethysmographic (sR_eff, sG_eff, the aerodynamic work of breathing at rest; sWOB), static lung volumes, including trapped gases and measurements of the carbon monoxide transfer (DL_CO, K_CO) were explored using multiple factor analysis (MFA). The discriminating power of lung function parameters with respect to ACO was assessed using linear discriminant analysis (LDA).

Results

LDA revealed that parameters of airway dynamics (sWOB, sR_eff, sG_eff) combined with parameters of static lung volumes such as functional residual capacity (FRC_pleth) and trapped gas at FRC (V_TG^FRC) are valuable and potentially important tools discriminating between asthma, ACO and COPD. Moreover, sWOB significantly contributes to the diagnosis of obstructive airway diseases, independent from the state of pulmonary hyperinflation, whilst the diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide (DL_CO) significantly differentiates between the 3 diagnostic classes.

Conclusion

The complexity of COPD with its components of interaction and their heterogeneity, especially in discrimination from ACO, may well be differentiated if patients are explored by a whole set of target parameters evaluating, interactionally, flow limitation, airway dynamics, pulmonary hyperinflation, small airways dysfunction and gas exchange disturbances assessing specific functional deficits.

Characteristics of 12-Month Readmission for Hospitalized Patients with COPD: A Propensity Score Matched Analysis of Prospective Multicenter Study

Purpose

Hospitalization for acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) is considered as severe exacerbations. Readmission for severe exacerbations is a crucial event for COPD patients. However, factors associated with readmission for severe exacerbations are incomplete. The study aimed to investigate different characteristics between the severe and non-severe exacerbation groups.

Patients and Methods

Patients hospitalized for severe AECOPD were included in multi-centers, and their exacerbations in next 12 months after discharge were recorded. According to exacerbations, patients were separated into the severe-exacerbation group and the non-severe exacerbation group. Propensity-score matching (PSM) and multivariable analyses were performed to compare the baseline characteristics of two groups. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test and receiver operating characteristic curve were applied to evaluate how well the model could identify clusters.

Results

The cohort included 550 patients with severe AECOPD across 27 study centers in China, and 465 patients were finally analyzed. A total of 41.5% of patients underwent readmission for AECOPD within 1 year. There were no significant differences in baseline characteristics between groups after PSM. Severe exacerbations in the 12 months were related to some factors, eg, the duration of COPD (13 vs 8 years, P<0.001), the COPD Assessment Test (CAT) score (20 vs 17, P<0.001), the blood eosinophil percentage (1.5 vs 2.0, P<0.05), and their inhaler therapies. Patients readmitted with AECOPD had a longer time of diagnosis (≥9 years), more symptoms (CAT ≥10), and lower blood eosinophils (Eos <2%). A clinical model was derived to help identify patients at risk of readmission with severe exacerbations.

Conclusion

These analyses confirmed the relevance of COPD at admission with future severe exacerbations. A lower blood eosinophils percentage appears to be related to readmission when combined with clinical history. Further studies are needed to evaluate whether this study can predict the risk of exacerbations.

Trajectories of Severe Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Their Relationship with Mortality Risk

PURPOSE

Acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) are important factors contributing to mortality risk. The rate of exacerbations varies overtime. An inconsistent pattern of exacerbation occurrence is a common finding. The mortality risk associated with such a pattern is not entirely clear. Our objective was to assess the risk of mortality associated with various possible patterns of AECOPD trajectories.

METHODS

This is a multicenter historical cohort study. Four different exacerbation trajectories were defined according to the incidence of severe AECOPD requiring hospital admission 2 years before and after the date of the first visit to the respiratory clinic-Consistent non-exacerbators (NEx): no AECOPD before or after the index date; consistent exacerbators (Ex): at least one AECOPD both before and after the index date; converters to exacerbators (CONV-Ex): no exacerbations before and at least one AECOPD after the index date; converters to non-exacerbators (CONV-NEx): at least one AECOPD before the index date, and no exacerbations after said date. All-cause mortality risk for these trajectories was assessed.

RESULTS

A total of 1713 subjects were included in the study: NEx: 1219 (71.2%), CONV-NEx: 225 (13.1%), CONV-Ex: 148 (8.6%), Ex: 121 (7.1%). After correcting for confounding variables, the group with the highest mortality risk was Ex. The CONV-Ex and CONV-Nex groups had a mortality risk between Ex and NEx, with no significant differences between them.

CONCLUSION

Different possible trajectories of severe AECOPD before and after a first specialized consultation are associated with different mortality risks. An inconsistent pattern of exacerbations has a mortality risk between Ex and NEx, with no clear differences between CONV-Ex and CONV-NEx.

Prognostic risk factors for moderate-to-severe exacerbations in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a systematic literature review

Background

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. COPD exacerbations are associated with a worsening of lung function, increased disease burden, and mortality, and, therefore, preventing their occurrence is an important goal of COPD management. This review was conducted to identify the evidence base regarding risk factors and predictors of moderate-to-severe exacerbations in patients with COPD.

Methods

A literature review was performed in Embase, MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL). Searches were conducted from January 2015 to July 2019. Eligible publications were peer-reviewed journal articles, published in English, that reported risk factors or predictors for the occurrence of moderate-to-severe exacerbations in adults age ≥ 40 years with a diagnosis of COPD.

Results

The literature review identified 5112 references, of which 113 publications (reporting results for 76 studies) met the eligibility criteria and were included in the review. Among the 76 studies included, 61 were observational and 15 were randomized controlled clinical trials. Exacerbation history was the strongest predictor of future exacerbations, with 34 studies reporting a significant association between history of exacerbations and risk of future moderate or severe exacerbations. Other significant risk factors identified in multiple studies included disease severity or bronchodilator reversibility (39 studies), comorbidities (34 studies), higher symptom burden (17 studies), and higher blood eosinophil count (16 studies).

Conclusions

This systematic literature review identified several demographic and clinical characteristics that predict the future risk of COPD exacerbations. Prior exacerbation history was confirmed as the most important predictor of future exacerbations. These prognostic factors may help clinicians identify patients at high risk of exacerbations, which are a major driver of the global burden of COPD, including morbidity and mortality.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12931-022-02123-5.

Precision medicine in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Over the last 20 years, it has become possible to use a precision medicine approach to the management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Clinical and physiological features as well as a blood biomarker can be used to target treatments to patients most likely to benefit and avoid treatment in patients less likely to benefit. Future advances in a precision medicine approach to COPD will depend on more precise characterization of individual patients, possibly using quantitative imaging, new physiological techniques, novel biomarkers and genetic profiling. Precision medicine has led to significant improvements in the management of COPD and clinicians should use all available information to optimize the treatment of individual patients.

International Differences in the Frequency of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbations Reported in Three Clinical Trials

Rationale: Exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are an important endpoint in multinational clinical treatment trials, but the observed event rate is often lower than anticipated and appears to vary between countries. Objectives: We investigated whether systematic differences in national exacerbation rates might explain this observed variation. Methods: We reviewed data from three large multicenter international randomized trials conducted over an 18-year period with different designs and clinical severities of COPD, comparing bronchodilator and/or inhaled corticosteroids with bronchodilators alone and/or placebo. Exacerbations were defined by antibiotic and/or oral corticosteroid use (moderate) or need for hospitalization (severe). We calculated crude exacerbation rates in the 30 countries contributing 30 or more patients to at least two trials. We grouped data by exacerbation rate based on their first study contribution. Measurements and Main Results: For the 29,756 patients in 41 countries analyzed, the mean exacerbation rate was two- to threefold different between the highest and lowest tertiles of the recruiting nations. These differences were not explained by demographic features, study protocol, or reported exacerbation history at enrollment. Of the 18 countries contributing to all trials, half of those in the highest and half in the lowest tertiles of exacerbation history remained in these groups across trials. Severe exacerbations showed a different rank order internationally. Conclusions: Countries contributing to COPD trials differ consistently in their reporting of healthcare-defined exacerbations. These differences help explain why large studies have been needed to show differences between treatments that decrease exacerbation risk.

Quantitative CT Lung Imaging and Machine Learning Improves Prediction of Emergency Room Visits and Hospitalizations in COPD

RATIONALE

Predicting increased risk of future healthcare utilization in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients is an important goal for improving patient management.

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to determine the importance of computed tomography (CT) lung imaging measurements relative to other demographic and clinical measurements for predicting future health services use with machine learning in COPD.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this retrospective study, lung function measurements and chest CT images were acquired from Canadian Cohort of Obstructive Lung Disease study participants from 2010 to 2017 (https://clinicaltrials.gov, NCT00920348). Up to two follow-up visits (1.5- and 3-year follow-up) were performed and participants were asked for details related to healthcare utilization. Healthcare utilization was defined as any COPD hospitalization or emergency room visit due to respiratory problems in the 12 months prior to the follow-up visits. CT analysis was performed (VIDA Diagnostics Inc.); a total of 108 CT quantitative emphysema, airway and vascular measurements were investigated. A hybrid feature selection method with support vector machine classifier was used to predict healthcare utilization. Performance was determined using accuracy, F1-measure and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Matthews's correlation coefficient (MC).

RESULTS

Of the 527 COPD participants evaluated, 179 (35%) used healthcare services at follow-up. There were no significant differences between the participants with or without healthcare utilization at follow-up for age (p = 0.50), sex (p = 0.44), BMI (p = 0.05) or pack-years (p = 0.76). The accuracy for predicting subsequent healthcare utilization was 80% ± 3% (F1-measure = 74%, AUC = 0.80, MC = 0.6) when all measurements were considered, 76% ± 6% (F1-measure = 72%, AUC = 0.77, MC = 0.55) for CT measurements alone and 65% ± 5% (F1-measure = 60%, AUC = 0.67, MC = 0.34) for demographic and lung function measurements alone.

CONCLUSION

The combination of CT lung imaging and conventional measurements leads to greater prediction accuracy of subsequent health services use than conventional measurements alone, and may provide needed prognostic information for patients suffering from COPD.

Risk of COPD exacerbation is increased by poor sleep quality and modified by social adversity

STUDY OBJECTIVES

Sleep is an important dimension in the care of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but its relevance to exacerbations is unclear. We wanted to assess whether sleep quality as measured by the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) is associated with an increased risk of COPD exacerbations and does this differ by socio-environmental exposures.

METHODS

We included 1647 current and former smokers with spirometrically confirmed COPD from the SPIROMICS cohort. We assessed incidence rate ratios for exacerbation using zero-inflated negative binomial regression adjusting for demographics, medical comorbidities, and multiple metrics of disease severity, including respiratory medications, airflow obstruction, and symptom burden. Our final model adjusted for socio-environmental exposures using the Area Deprivation Index, a composite measure of contemporary neighborhood quality, and Adversity-Opportunity Index, a composite measure of individual-level historic and current socioeconomic indicators. We used a pre-determined threshold of 20% missingness to undertake multiple imputation by chained equations. As sensitivity analyses, we repeated models in those with complete data and after controlling for prior exacerbations. As an exploratory analysis, we considered an interaction between socio-environmental condition and sleep quality.

RESULTS

After adjustment for all co-variates, increasing PSQI scores (range 0-21) were associated with a 5% increased risk for exacerbation per point (p = .001) in the imputed dataset. Sensitivity analyses using complete cases and after controlling for prior exacerbation history were similar. Exploratory analysis suggested less effect among those who lived in poor-quality neighborhoods (p-for-interaction = .035).

CONCLUSIONS

Poor sleep quality may contribute to future exacerbations among patients with COPD. This represents one target for improving disease control.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study (SPIROMICS). ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier# NCT01969344. Registry URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/.

The Role of the Pharmacist in Optimizing Outcomes With Roflumilast, a PDE4 Inhibitor for the Treatment of COPD

PURPOSE

The pharmacology of roflumilast, recent dosing revisions, and the integral roles of pharmacists in effective chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) management are reviewed here.

SUMMARY

COPD is characterized by progressive airflow limitation and intermittent acute exacerbations of symptoms, which contribute to disease progression, worsening of comorbidities, and reduced health-related quality of life. Patients with COPD may use a variety of pharmacotherapies (in combination with nonpharmacological modalities) to prevent exacerbations, reduce the impact of symptoms, and reduce or prevent COPD progression. Given the complex and multifaceted nature of disease management, pharmacists are uniquely positioned to collaborate with other clinicians to improve treatment adherence and efficacy via a number of diverse avenues in patients with COPD. Central to this endeavor is patient education and counseling regarding their treatment regimen.

CONCLUSION

Recent findings from a phase 3 clinical trial demonstrate improved tolerability and reduced treatment discontinuation resulting from the use of an uptitration regimen in patients with severe COPD who initiate therapy with roflumilast. Pharmacists have a central role in effective COPD management, especially with respect to patient education about treatments.

ERS statement: a core outcome set for clinical trials evaluating the management of COPD exacerbations

Clinical trials evaluating the management of acute exacerbations of COPD assess heterogeneous outcomes, often omitting those that are clinically relevant or more important to patients. We have developed a core outcome set, a consensus-based minimum set of important outcomes that we recommend are evaluated in all future clinical trials on exacerbations management, to improve their quality and comparability. COPD exacerbations outcomes were identified through methodological systematic reviews and qualitative interviews with 86 patients from 11 countries globally. The most critical outcomes were prioritised for inclusion in the core outcome set through a two-round Delphi survey completed by 1063 participants (256 patients, 488 health professionals and 319 clinical academics) from 88 countries in five continents. Two global, multi-stakeholder, virtual consensus meetings were conducted to 1) finalise the core outcome set and 2) prioritise a single measurement instrument to be used for evaluating each of the prioritised outcomes. Consensus was informed by rigorous methodological systematic reviews. The views of patients with COPD were accounted for at all stages of the project. Survival, treatment success, breathlessness, quality of life, activities of daily living, the need for a higher level of care, arterial blood gases, disease progression, future exacerbations and hospital admissions, treatment safety and adherence were all included in the core outcome set. Focused methodological research was recommended to further validate and optimise some of the selected measurement instruments. The panel did not consider the prioritised set of outcomes and associated measurement instruments to be burdensome for patients and health professionals to use.