Cost-effectiveness of female human papillomavirus vaccination in 179 countries: a PRIME modelling study

Factors influencing HPV vaccine hesitancy among university students in China: A cross-sectional survey utilizing the 3Cs model

The HPV vaccine, which has been demonstrated to be an effective method of reducing the risk of developing cervical cancer, is still being underutilized among college students in China. To assess the current status of HPV vaccine hesitancy among college students in Guangdong Province after the COVID-19 outbreak, and to systematically analyze the influencing factors of HPV vaccine hesitancy and construct a prediction model based on the WHO 3Cs model. A cross-sectional web-based survey was conducted in June 2023 among female college students in four cities in Guangdong Province. The data were analyzed using binary logistic regression with a focus on the 3Cs model: Complacency, Convenience, and Confidence. LASSO regression was employed to analyze the variables deemed to be of significance and to construct predictive models. Out of 1399 participants, 86.5% expressed no hesitancy toward HPV vaccination. However, 11.9% exhibited hesitancy, and 1.6% refused vaccination altogether. Factors such as trust in vaccine efficacy, perception of HPV infection risk, price considerations, and constraints like distance or time were significant contributors to hesitancy. Knowledge of the HPV vaccine, socio-demographic characteristics, and the educational level of participants' mothers also played a role in vaccine hesitancy. It is recommended that targeted interventions be implemented within educational institutions with the aim of raising awareness of cervical cancer and HPV vaccines, simplifying the scheduling of vaccination appointments, and increasing affordability through the implementation of strategic purchasing measures or subsidy schemes.

An Application of an Initial Full Value of Vaccine Assessment Methodology to Measles-Rubella MAPs for Use in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Measles and rubella micro-array patches (MR-MAPs) are a promising innovation to address limitations of the current needle and syringe (N&S) presentation due to their single-dose presentation, ease of use, and improved thermostability. To direct and accelerate further research and interventions, an initial full value vaccine assessment (iFVVA) was initiated prior to MR-MAPs entering phase I trials to quantify their value and identify key data gaps and challenges. The iFVVA utilized a mixed-methods approach with rapid assessment of literature, stakeholder interviews and surveys, and quantitative data analyses to (i) assess global need for improved MR vaccines and how MR-MAPs could address MR problem statements; (ii) estimate costs and benefits of MR-MAPs; (iii) identify the best pathway from development to delivery; and (iv) identify outstanding areas of need where stakeholder intervention can be helpful. These analyses found that if MR-MAPs are broadly deployed, they can potentially reach an additional 80 million children compared to the N&S presentation between 2030-2040. MR-MAPs can avert up to 37 million measles cases, 400,000 measles deaths, and 26 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). MR-MAPs with the most optimal product characteristics of low price, controlled temperature chain (CTC) properties, and small cold chain volumes were shown to be cost saving for routine immunization (RI) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared to N&S. Uncertainties about price and future vaccine coverage impact the potential cost-effectiveness of introducing MR-MAPs in LMICs, indicating that it could be cost-effective in 16-81% of LMICs. Furthermore, this iFVVA highlighted the importance of upfront donor investment in manufacturing set-up and clinical studies and the critical influence of an appropriate price to ensure country and manufacturer financial sustainability. To ensure that MR-MAPs achieve the greatest public health benefit, MAP developers, vaccine manufacturers, donors, financiers, and policy- and decision-makers will need close collaboration and open communications.

Optimal human papillomavirus vaccination strategies in the context of vaccine supply constraints in 100 countries

Background

Countries are recommended to immunise adolescent girls routinely with one or two doses of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem. With most existing vaccine doses absorbed by countries (mostly high-income) with existing HPV vaccination programmes, limited supply has been left for new country introductions until 2022; many of those, low- and middle-income countries with higher mortality. Several vaccination strategies were considered by the Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization to allow more countries to introduce vaccination despite constrained supplies.

Methods

We examined the impact of nine strategies for allocating limited vaccine doses to 100 pre-introduction countries from 2020 to 2030. Two algorithms were used to optimise the total number of cancer deaths that can be averted worldwide by a limited number of doses (knapsack and decreasing order of country-specific mortality rates), and an unoptimised algorithm (decreasing order of Human Development Index) were used.

Findings

Routinely vaccinating 14-year-old girls with either one or two doses and switching to a routine 9-year-old programme when supply is no longer constrained could prevent the most cervical cancer deaths, regardless of allocation algorithm. The unoptimised allocation averts fewer deaths because it allocates first to higher-income countries, usually with lower cervical cancer mortality.

Interpretation

To optimise the deaths averted through vaccination when supply is limited, it is important to prioritise high-burden countries and vaccinating older girls first.

Funding

WHO, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

HPVsim: An agent-based model of HPV transmission and cervical disease

In 2020, the WHO launched its first global strategy to accelerate the elimination of cervical cancer, outlining an ambitious set of targets for countries to achieve over the next decade. At the same time, new tools, technologies, and strategies are in the pipeline that may improve screening performance, expand the reach of prophylactic vaccines, and prevent the acquisition, persistence and progression of oncogenic HPV. Detailed mechanistic modelling can help identify the combinations of current and future strategies to combat cervical cancer. Open-source modelling tools are needed to shift the capacity for such evaluations in-country. Here, we introduce the Human papillomavirus simulator (HPVsim), a new open-source software package for creating flexible agent-based models parameterised with country-specific vital dynamics, structured sexual networks, and co-transmitting HPV genotypes. HPVsim includes a novel methodology for modelling cervical disease progression, designed to be readily adaptable to new forms of screening. The software itself is implemented in Python, has built-in tools for simulating commonly-used interventions, includes a comprehensive set of tests and documentation, and runs quickly (seconds to minutes) on a laptop. Performance is greatly enhanced by HPVsim's multiscale modelling functionality. HPVsim is open source under the MIT License and available via both the Python Package Index (via pip install) and GitHub (hpvsim.org).

Parents' perspectives on dental team as advisors to promote HPV vaccination among Spanish adolescents

PURPOSE

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a prevalent sexually transmitted infection responsible for many anogenital and oropharyngeal cancers. Dental care providers have the potential to influence vaccine uptake, yet little is known about how patients perceive their role in HPV education and prevention.

METHODS

Parents of adolescents aged 9 to 17 years (n = 375) were recruited from Valdeorras District Hospital (Galicia, Spain) to investigate parents' attitudes concerning the involvement of dental care providers in discussions related to HPV. A survey was distributed to the participants, and 343 (91.5%) were included in the analysis.

RESULTS

In general, nearly half of the parents reported feeling comfortable regarding discussing HPV with their dentist. Participants described more comfort with dentists than with dental hygienists. Parents' comfort levels were influenced by various social determinants of health, including education level, marital status, geographic origin, and child vaccination status (p > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Parents reported varying comfort levels when discussing HPV and its vaccine with dental professionals, displaying a preference for dentists. Dental settings have the potential to promote vaccination, but the existence of ongoing barriers needs to be addressed.

Oral and periodontal manifestation related during human papilloma virus infections: Update on early prognostic factors

Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) is considered one of the most common sexually transmitted infections and has been shown to play an important role in the pathogenesis of squamous cell carcinomas (SCC) of the cervix and head and neck. Manifestations of HPV infections can be manifold, ranging from asymptomatic infections to benign or potentially malignant lesions to intraepithelial neoplasms and invasive carcinomas. The heterogeneity of clinical manifestations from HPV infection depends on the interactions between the viral agent and the host, a direct consequence of the ability on the part of HPV is to remain silent and to evade and convey the action of the host immune system. The oral mucosa represents one of the tissues for which HPV has a distinct tropism and is frequently affected by infection. While much information is available on the role that HPV infection plays in the development of SCC in the oral cavity, there is less information on asymptomatic infections and benign HPV-induced oral lesions. Therefore, the purpose of this review is to analyze, in light of current knowledge, the early clinical and bio-humoral prognostic features related to the risk of HPV malignant transformation, focusing on subclinical conditions, benign lesions, and the correlation between oral infection and infection in other districts. The data show that the main risk associated with HPV infection is related to malignant transformation of lesions. Although HPV-driven OPSCC is associated with a better prognosis than non-HPV-driven OPSCC, primary prevention and early detection of the infection and affected genotype are essential to reduce the risk of malignant neoplastic complications and improve the prognosis.

Equity impact of HPV vaccination on lifetime projections of cervical cancer burden among cohorts in 84 countries by global, regional, and income levels, 2010-22: a modelling study

Background

While human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines have been available since 2006, the coverage has varied among countries. Our aim is to analyse the equity impact of HPV vaccination on the lifetime projections of cervical cancer burden among vaccinated cohorts of 2010-22 in 84 countries.

Methods

We used WHO and UNICEF estimates of national immunisation coverage for HPV vaccination in 84 countries during 2010-22. We used PRIME (Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics) to estimate the lifetime health impact of HPV vaccination on cervical cancer burden in terms of deaths, cases, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted by vaccination in their respective countries. We generated concentration indices and curves to assess the equity impact of HPV vaccination across 84 countries.

Findings

The health impact of HPV vaccination varied across the 84 countries and ranged from Switzerland to Tanzania at 2 to 34 deaths, 4 to 47 cases, and 40 to 735 DALYs averted per 1000 vaccinated adolescent girls over the lifetime of the vaccinated cohorts of 2010-22. The concentration index for the distribution of average coverage during 2010-22 among the 84 countries ranked by vaccine impact was 0.33 (95% CI: 0.27-0.40) and highlights the wide inequities in HPV vaccination coverage.

Interpretation

Our findings suggested that countries with a relatively higher cervical cancer burden and thereby a relatively higher need for HPV vaccination had relatively lower coverage during 2010-22. Further, there were significant inequities in HPV vaccination coverage within the Americas, Europe, and Western Pacific regions, and in high- and low-income countries with a pro-advantaged and regressive distribution favouring countries with lower vaccine impact.

Funding

Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Prevalence and genotype distribution of HPV infections among women in Chengdu,China

BACKGROUND

Human papilloma virus (HPV) infection among female is the cause of cervical cancer and genital warts. In China, the HPV vaccination rate and the target population screening rate among females are low, and the aims of this study on the genotype distribution and prevalence of HPV infection were to provide more targeted strategies for the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer and HPV-related diseases.

METHODS

Polymerase chain reaction-reverse dot blot (PCR-RDB) was adopted for HPV genotyping test, the prevalence and 23 genotypes distribution of HPV infections among 181,705 women in Chengdu from 2013 to 2020 were analysed.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence rate of HPV infection among 181,705 cases was 23.28%, the prevalence of HR-HPV at the age group < 20 years, 60-69 years and ≥ 70 years were higher than the overall prevalence.The prevalence of HPV showed a bimodal U-shaped curve with age; the first and second peak common occurred among females < 20 years old (42.97%) and 60-69 years old (37.56%), respectively.The top five genotypes of HPV infection among females in Chengdu were HPV52/16/58/81/53. Single infection (73.26%) was the main HPV infection pattern, followed by double infection (19.17%) and multiple infection (7.57%), the infection rate of HPV showed a gradual declined as the patterns of HPV coinfections increased, low-risk and high-risk coinfection was higher in low-risk HPV infection (43.68%) and lower in high-risk HPV infection (13.59%). The prevalence of genotypes - 6 and - 81 infection was the second highest at the age group of 20 and 40-59, respectively, while the prevalence of HPV16 was the highest at the age group of ≥ 70 among 23 genotypes among the 181,705 women.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of HPV infections among women in Chengdu is higher than domestic certain developed citys, among the five vaccines available, nonavalent vaccine is more suitable for Chengdu females. For young females prioritizing vaccination is essential in the current context.Double screening for HPV DNA is important in middle-aged women (30-49 years), and screening should not be lacking in older women (> 65 years). Additionally,for patients with genital warts, it is necessary to screen for high-risk HPV infection and provide appropriate management and treatment. Given the limitations of this study, future HPV research should aim to achieve full coverage of the target population, and our studies should also include cellular or pathological data of HPV-positive cases, vaccination rates, and various lifestyle details.

Temporal patterns of cancer burden in Asia, 1990-2019: a systematic examination for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

Background

Cancers represent a challenging public health threat in Asia. This study examines the temporal patterns of incidence, mortality, disability and risk factors of 29 cancers in Asia in the last three decades.

Methods

The age, sex and year-wise estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of 29 cancers for 49 Asian countries from 1990 through 2019 were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors 2019 study. Besides incidence, mortality and DALYs, we also examined the cancer burden measured in terms of DALYs and deaths attributable to risk factors, which had evidence of causation with different cancers. The development status of countries was measured using the socio-demographic index. Decomposition analysis was performed to gauge the change in cancer incidence between 1990 and 2019 due to population growth, aging and age-specific incidence rates.

Findings

All cancers combined claimed an estimated 5.6 million [95% uncertainty interval, 5.1-6.0 million] lives in Asia with 9.4 million [8.6-10.2 million] incident cases and 144.7 million [132.7-156.5 million] DALYs in 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of all cancers combined in Asia was 197.6/100,000 [181.0-214.4] in 2019, varying from 99.2/100,000 [76.1-126.0] in Bangladesh to 330.5/100,000 [298.5-365.8] in Cyprus. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was 120.6/100,000 [110.1-130.7] in 2019, varying 4-folds across countries from 71.0/100,000 [59.9-83.5] in Kuwait to 284.2/100,000 [229.2-352.3] in Mongolia. The age-standardized DALYs rate was 2970.5/100,000 [2722.6-3206.5] in 2019, varying from 1578.0/100,000 [1341.2-1847.0] in Kuwait to 6574.4/100,000 [5141.7-8333.0] in Mongolia. Between 1990 and 2019, deaths due to 17 of the 29 cancers either doubled or more, and 20 of the 29 cancers underwent an increase of 150% or more in terms of new cases. Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (both sexes), breast cancer (among females), colon and rectum cancer (both sexes), stomach cancer (both sexes) and prostate cancer (among males) were among top-5 cancers in most Asian countries in terms of ASIR and ASMR in 2019 and cancers of liver, stomach, hodgkin lymphoma and esophageal cancer posted the most significant decreases in age-standardized rates between 1990 and 2019. Among the modifiable risk factors, smoking, alcohol use, ambient particulate matter (PM) pollution and unsafe sex remained the dominant risk factors between 1990 and 2019. Cancer DALYs due to ambient PM pollution, high body mass index and fasting plasma glucose has increased most notably between 1990 and 2019.

Interpretation

With growing incidence, cancer has become more significant public health threat in Asia, demanding urgent policy attention and guidance. Its heightened risk calls for increased cancer awareness, preventive measures, affordable early-stage detection, and cost-effective therapeutics in Asia. The current study can serve as a useful resource for policymakers and researchers in Asia for devising interventions for cancer management and control.

Funding

The GBD study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

School Nurses' Experiences and Roles in Promoting and Administering the HPV Vaccine: A Systematic Review Using the Socioecological Framework

Understanding the school nurse's experience in human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine promotion can reduce vaccine disparities. HPV vaccination is critical to cancer prevention. Despite the importance of the school nurse in vaccine promotion, there is a lack of understanding. This article aims to examine the knowledge, attitude, experience, and role of school nurses related to HPV vaccination and promotion in school settings. A systematic search for school nurses and their experiences related to HPV vaccination was conducted. A thematic synthesis was undertaken using the socioecological model. This review highlights the complexity of HPV vaccine promotion in schools over time. Multilevel factors impact nursing practice. Nurses have good vaccine knowledge and positive attitudes. Poor workflow processes, competing demands, and vaccine communication challenge school nurses. The themes that were synthesized informed the LEADS model. With the support of school nurses, reaching the goal of eliminating cervical cancer as a public health problem is possible.

Epidemiology and genotypes analysis of human papillomavirus infection in Beijing, China

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to investigate the epidemiology of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) in the female population in Beijing, China, and identify the relationship between HPV genotypes and host factors.

METHODS

HPV testing was performed on women aged 15-89 (mean age 38.0 ± 10.9 years) from Beijing in 2020. High-risk HPV genotyping real-time polymerase chain reaction was used to determine HPV genotypes. The overall prevalence, age-specific prevalence, genotype distribution, and the correlation between HPV genotypes and cervical cytology were analyzed.

RESULTS

Among the 25,344 study participants, the single and double infection rates were 18.8% (4,777/25,344) and 4.2% (1,072/25,344), respectively. A total of 6,119 HPV-positive individuals were found to have 91.6% negative results for intraepithelial lesion or malignancy (NILM), 5.8% atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASC-US), 0.9% low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL), and 1.7% high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL). In single HPV infections, the HPV16 genotype was highly associated with cervical cytology severity (χ2 trend = 172.487, P < 0.001). Additionally, HPV infection rates increased gradually with age, and statistical differences were observed across age groups (χ2 = 180.575; P < 0.001). High-risk HPV genotypes were highly prevalent in women below 25 years of age and those aged 55-59 years. Cluster analysis revealed that the 13 HPV genotypes could be roughly divided into two groups in a single infection; however, patterns of infection consistent with biological characteristics were not observed.

CONCLUSION

High-risk HPV was found in 24.1% of outpatients, with HPV52, HPV58, HPV16, HPV39, and HPV51 being the most common high-risk genotypes. Single high-risk HPV infection was predominant. HPV16, HPV39, HPV51, and HPV52 were associated with cervical lesion progression. HPV16 infection was especially worrying since it aggravates cervical lesions. Because the infection rates of the 13 HPV genotypes differed by age, the peak HPV infection rate should not guide vaccination, screening, and prevention programs. Instead, these initiatives should be tailored based on the regional HPV distribution characteristics. Moreover, it was determined that Beijing's populace needed to receive treatment for HPV39 infection.

Gender-Neutral HPV Vaccine in India; Requisite for a Healthy Community: A Review

Human papillomavirus (HPV) affects approximately 80% of individuals, irrespective of gender, and is implicated in various cancers. Existing HPV vaccines, while safe and effective, do not sufficiently protect males when administered solely to females. This review, triggered by the urgent need to address this gap and reduce the associated stigma, aims to evaluate the introduction of a gender-neutral HPV vaccine, GARDASIL-9, in India. The primary objective is to assess the necessity and feasibility of incorporating the gender-neutral HPV vaccine into India's national immunization program. This integration is crucial to ensure equitable access for all children and to mitigate the substantial burden of HPV. A literature search was conducted using databases such as Google Scholar, PubMed, government websites, and relevant publications. Keywords included "gender-neutral vaccine", "HPV vaccine", and "Indian population". The central research question guiding this review is: How necessary and feasible is the inclusion of a gender-neutral HPV vaccine in India's national immunization schedule to ensure equitable access for all children and reduce the HPV burden? The review inclusion criteria comprised studies addressing the prevalence of HPV infections, HPV vaccination awareness among both genders, the cost-effectiveness of gender-neutral vaccines, current HPV vaccination status, and future perspectives specific to India. Studies not meeting these criteria were excluded. The review highlights that introducing a gender-neutral HPV vaccine in India is imperative. Including males in vaccination efforts significantly reduces the overall disease burden and helps in reducing the stigma associated with HPV. A comprehensive vaccination program, bolstered by education and awareness campaigns, and its inclusion in the national immunization schedule is essential. This approach ensures equitable access to the vaccine for all children, fostering a healthier community, preventing HPV-related cancers, and enhancing public health outcomes in India.

Cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in Burkina Faso: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Africa has some of the highest cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates globally. Burkina Faso launched a human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programme for 9-year-old girls in 2022 with support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance (Gavi). An economic evaluation of HPV vaccination is required to help sustain investment and inform decisions about optimal HPV vaccine choices.

METHODS

We used a proportionate outcomes static cohort model to evaluate the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination for 9-year-old girls over a ten-year period (2022-2031) in Burkina Faso. The primary outcome measure was the cost (2022 US$) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted from a limited societal perspective (including all vaccine costs borne by the government and Gavi, radiation therapy costs borne by the government, and all other direct medical costs borne by patients and their families). We evaluated four vaccines (CERVARIX®, CECOLIN®, GARDASIL-4®, GARDASIL-9®), comparing each to no vaccination (and no change in existing cervical cancer screening and treatment strategies) and to each other. We combined local estimates of HPV type distribution, healthcare costs, vaccine coverage and costs with GLOBOCAN 2020 disease burden data and clinical trial efficacy data. We ran deterministic and probabilistic uncertainty analyses.

RESULTS

HPV vaccination could prevent 37-72% of cervical cancer cases and deaths. CECOLIN® had the most favourable cost-effectiveness (cost per DALY averted < 0.27 times the national gross domestic product [GDP] per capita). When cross-protection was included, CECOLIN® remained the most cost-effective (cost per DALY averted < 0.20 times the national GDP per capita), but CERVARIX® provided greater health benefits (66% vs. 48% reduction in cervical cancer cases and deaths) with similar cost-effectiveness (cost per DALY averted < 0.28 times the national GDP per capita, with CECOLIN® as the comparator). We estimated the annual cost of the vaccination programme at US$ 2.9, 4.1, 4.4 and 19.8 million for CECOLIN®, GARDASIL-4®, CERVARIX® and GARDASIL-9®, respectively. A single dose strategy reduced costs and improved cost-effectiveness by more than half.

CONCLUSION

HPV vaccination is cost-effective in Burkina Faso from a limited societal perspective. A single dose strategy and/or alternative Gavi-supported HPV vaccines could further improve cost-effectiveness.

Health and economic effects of introducing single-dose or two-dose human papillomavirus vaccination in India

BACKGROUND

Cervical cancer is a major public health problem in India, where access to prevention programmes is low. The WHO-Strategic Advisory Group of Experts recently updated their recommendation for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination to include a single-dose option in addition to the two-dose option, which could make HPV vaccination programmes easier to implement and more affordable.

METHODS

We combined projections from a type-specific HPV transmission model and a cancer progression model to assess the health and economic effects of HPV vaccination at national and state level in India. The models used national and state-specific Indian demographic, epidemiological and cost data, and single-dose vaccine efficacy and immunogenicity data from the International Agency for Research on Cancer India vaccine trial with 10-year follow-up. We compared single-dose and two-dose HPV vaccination for a range of plausible scenarios regarding single-dose vaccine protection, coverage and catch-up. We used a healthcare sector payer perspective with a time horizon of 100 years.

RESULTS

Under the base-case scenario of lifelong protection of single-dose vaccination in 10-year-old girls with 90% coverage, the discounted incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of nationwide vaccination relative to no vaccination was US$406 (₹INR30 000) per DALY (disability-adjusted life-years) averted. This lay below an opportunity-cost-based threshold of 30% Indian gross domestic product per capita in each Indian state (state-specific ICER range: US$67-US$593 per DALY averted). The ICER of two-dose vaccination versus no vaccination vaccination was US$1404 (₹INR104 000). The ICER of two-dose vaccination versus single-dose vaccination, assuming lower initial efficacy and waning of single-dose vaccination, was at least US$2282 (₹INR169 000) per DALY averted.

CONCLUSIONS

Nationwide introduction of single-dose HPV vaccination at age 10 in India is highly likely to be cost-effective whereas extending the number of doses from one to two would have a less favourable profile.

A quantitative assessment of the consistency of projections from five mathematical models of the HIV epidemic in South Africa: a model comparison study

BACKGROUND

Mathematical models are increasingly used to inform HIV policy and planning. Comparing estimates obtained using different mathematical models can test the robustness of estimates and highlight research gaps. As part of a larger project aiming to determine the optimal allocation of funding for HIV services, in this study we compare projections from five mathematical models of the HIV epidemic in South Africa: EMOD-HIV, Goals, HIV-Synthesis, Optima, and Thembisa.

METHODS

The five modelling groups produced estimates of the total population, HIV incidence, HIV prevalence, proportion of people living with HIV who are diagnosed, ART coverage, proportion of those on ART who are virally suppressed, AIDS-related deaths, total deaths, and the proportion of adult males who are circumcised. Estimates were made under a "status quo" scenario for the period 1990 to 2040. For each output variable we assessed the consistency of model estimates by calculating the coefficient of variation and examining the trend over time.

RESULTS

For most outputs there was significant inter-model variability between 1990 and 2005, when limited data was available for calibration, good consistency from 2005 to 2025, and increasing variability towards the end of the projection period. Estimates of HIV incidence, deaths in people living with HIV, and total deaths displayed the largest long-term variability, with standard deviations between 35 and 65% of the cross-model means. Despite this variability, all models predicted a gradual decline in HIV incidence in the long-term. Projections related to the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets were more consistent, with the coefficients of variation below 0.1 for all groups except children.

CONCLUSIONS

While models produced consistent estimates for several outputs, there are areas of variability that should be investigated. This is important if projections are to be used in subsequent cost-effectiveness studies.

Pricing Treatments Cost-Effectively when They Have Multiple Indications: Not Just a Simple Threshold Analysis

BACKGROUND

Economic evaluations of treatments increasingly employ price-threshold analyses. When a treatment has multiple indications, standard price-threshold analyses can be overly simplistic. We examine how rules governing indication-specific prices and reimbursement decisions affect value-based price analyses.

METHODS

We analyze a 2-stage game between 2 players: the therapy's manufacturer and the payer purchasing it for patients. First, the manufacturer selects a price(s) that may be indication specific. Then, the payer decides whether to provide reimbursement at the offered price(s). We assume known indication-specific demand. The manufacturer seeks to maximize profit. The payer seeks to maximize total population incremental net monetary benefit and will not pay more than their willingness-to-pay threshold. We consider game variants defined by constraints on the manufacturer's ability to price and payer's ability to provide reimbursement differentially by indication.

RESULTS

When both the manufacturer and payer can make indication-specific decisions, the problem simplifies to multiple single-indication price-threshold analyses, and the manufacturer captures all the consumer surplus. When the manufacturer is restricted to one price and the payer must make an all-or-nothing reimbursement decision, the selected price is a weighted average of indication-specific threshold prices such that reimbursement of more valuable indications subsidizes reimbursement of less valuable indications. With a single price and indication-specific coverage decisions, the manufacturer may select a high price where fewer patients receive treatment because the payer restricts reimbursement to the set of indications providing value commensurate with the high price. However, the manufacturer may select a low price, resulting in reimbursement for more indications and positive consumer surplus.

CONCLUSIONS

When treatments have multiple indications, economic evaluations including price-threshold analyses should carefully consider jurisdiction-specific rules regarding pricing and reimbursement decisions.

HIGHLIGHTS

With treatment prices rising, economic evaluations increasingly employ price-threshold analyses to identify value-based prices. Standard price-threshold analyses can be overly simplistic when treatments have multiple indications.Jurisdiction-specific rules governing indication-specific prices and reimbursement decisions affect value-based price analyses.When the manufacturer is restricted to one price for all indications and the payer must make an all-or-nothing reimbursement decision, the selected price is a weighted average of indication-specific threshold prices such that reimbursement of the more valuable indications subsidize reimbursement of the less valuable indications.With a single price and indication-specific coverage decisions, the manufacturer may select a high price with fewer patients treated than in the first-best solution. There are also cases in which the manufacturer selects a lower price, resulting in reimbursement for more indications and positive consumer surplus.

Global impact and cost-effectiveness of one-dose versus two-dose human papillomavirus vaccination schedules: a comparative modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

To eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem, the World Health Organization had recommended routine vaccination of adolescent girls with two doses of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine before sexual initiation. However, many countries have yet to implement HPV vaccination because of financial or logistical barriers to delivering two doses outside the infant immunisation programme.

METHODS

Using three independent HPV transmission models, we estimated the long-term health benefits and cost-effectiveness of one-dose versus two-dose HPV vaccination, in 188 countries, under scenarios in which one dose of the vaccine gives either a shorter duration of full protection (20 or 30 years) or lifelong protection but lower vaccine efficacy (e.g. 80%) compared to two doses. We simulated routine vaccination with the 9-valent HPV vaccine in 10-year-old girls at 80% coverage for the years 2021-2120, with a 1-year catch-up campaign up to age 14 at 80% coverage in the first year of the programme.

RESULTS

Over the years 2021-2120, one-dose vaccination at 80% coverage was projected to avert 115.2 million (range of medians: 85.1-130.4) and 146.8 million (114.1-161.6) cervical cancers assuming one dose of the vaccine confers 20 and 30 years of protection, respectively. Should one dose of the vaccine provide lifelong protection at 80% vaccine efficacy, 147.8 million (140.6-169.7) cervical cancer cases could be prevented. If protection wanes after 20 years, 65 to 889 additional girls would need to be vaccinated with the second dose to prevent one cervical cancer, depending on the epidemiological profiles of the country. Across all income groups, the threshold cost for the second dose was low: from 1.59 (0.14-3.82) USD in low-income countries to 44.83 (3.75-85.64) USD in high-income countries, assuming one dose confers 30-year protection.

CONCLUSIONS

Results were consistent across the three independent models and suggest that one-dose vaccination has similar health benefits to a two-dose programme while simplifying vaccine delivery, reducing costs, and alleviating vaccine supply constraints. The second dose may become cost-effective if there is a shorter duration of protection from one dose, cheaper vaccine and vaccination delivery strategies, and high burden of cervical cancer.

Health and economic impact of delaying large-scale HPV vaccination and screening implementation on cervical cancer in China: a modelling study

Background

Current uptake of HPV vaccination and screening in China is far below World Health Organization 2030 targets for cervical cancer elimination. We quantified health and economic losses of delaying large-scale HPV vaccination and screening implementation in China.

Methods

We used a previously validated transmission model to project lifetime health benefits, costs, effectiveness, and timeline for cervical cancer elimination of alternative scenarios, including combining HPV vaccination initiated from 2022 to 2030 with screening in different modalities and coverage increase rates, as well as screening alone. All women living or projected to be born in China during 2022-2100 were considered. We employed a societal perspective.

Findings

Regardless of vaccine type, immediate large-scale vaccination initiated in 2022 and achieving 70% coverage of HPV-based screening in 2030 (no-delay scenario) would be the least costly and most effective. Compared with the no-delay scenario, delaying vaccination by eight years would result in 434,000-543,000 additional cervical cancer cases, 138,000-178,000 deaths, and $2863-4437 million costs, and delay elimination by 9-10 years. Even with immediate vaccination, the gradual scale-up of LBC-based screening to 70% coverage in 2070 would result in 2,530,000-3,060,000 additional cases, 909,000-1,040,000 deaths, and $5098-5714 million costs compared with no-delay scenario, and could not achieve elimination if domestic 2vHPV or 4vHPV vaccines are used (4.09-4.21 cases per 100,000 woman in 2100).

Interpretation

Delaying large-scale HPV vaccination and/or high-performance screening implementation has detrimental consequences for cervical cancer morbidity, mortality, and expenditure. These findings should spur health authorities to expedite large-scale vaccine rollout and improve screening.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-031449 and INV-003174) and CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (CIFMS) (2021-I2M-1-004).

Strategies to eliminate cervical cancer in China

Cervical cancer is a widely distributed disease that is preventable and controllable through early intervention. The World Health Organization has identified three key measures, coverage populations and coverage targets to eliminate cervical cancer. The WHO and several countries have conducted model predictions to determine the optimal strategy and timing of cervical cancer elimination. However, specific implementation strategies need to be developed in the context of local conditions. China has a relatively high disease burden of cervical cancer but a low human papillomavirus vaccination rate and cervical cancer screening population coverage. The purpose of this paper is to review interventions and prediction studies for the elimination of cervical cancer and to analyze the problems, challenges and strategies for the elimination of cervical cancer in China.

Human Papilloma Virus: An Unraveled Enigma of Universal Burden of Malignancies

HPV, or Human Papilloma Virus, has been the primary causative agent of genital warts and cervical cancer worldwide. It is a sexually transmitted infection mainly affecting women of reproductive age group, also infecting men and high-risk group individuals globally, resulting in high mortality. In recent years, HPV has also been found to be the major culprit behind anogenital cancers in both gender and oropharyngeal and colorectal cancers. Few studies have reported the incidence of HPV in breast cancers as well. For a few decades, the burden of HPV-associated malignancies has been increasing at an alarming rate due to a lack of adequate awareness, famine vaccine coverage and hesitancy. The effectiveness of currently available vaccines has been limited to prophylactic efficacy and does not prevent malignancies associated with post-exposure persistent infection. This review focuses on the current burden of HPV-associated malignancies, their causes and strategies to combat the growing prevalence of the cancers. With the advent of new technologies associated with treatment pertaining to therapeutic interventions and employing effective vaccine coverage, the burden of this disease may be reduced in the population.

Human Papillomavirus Vaccine

Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer in women worldwide with immense associated morbidity and mortality. Although most of the cervical cancer cases are caused by the human papillomavirus (HPV) and can effectively be prevented by HPV vaccination, vaccination unfortunately remains underused on a global scale with vast inequities in distribution. A vaccine as a tool to prevent cancer, cervical and others, is largely unprecedented. Then why do HPV vaccination rates globally remain so low? This article explores the burden of disease, development of the vaccine and its subsequent uptake, cost-effectiveness, and associated equity issues.

A targeted literature review of health economic analyses of human papillomavirus vaccination from various countries

Background

Understanding the cost-effectiveness of the HPV vaccine from a global perspective is important to assess from a policy perspective and to support current and future HPV vaccination programs.

Objectives

The aim of this analysis was to conduct a targeted literature review of published pharmacoeconomic literature on the cost-effectiveness of the HPV vaccine to treat patients in various countries, with a focus on cost-savings and their impact on vaccine recommendations.

Methods

We searched cost-effectiveness studies in HPV published in peer-reviewed literature from 2012 to 2020 using MEDLINE via the PubMed database and Google Scholar.

Results

HPV vaccine cost-effectiveness was found to be greatest in low-income countries where screen programs were not yet in place, additionally, in adolescent males and females. The majority of the economic evaluations viewed the implementation of the HPV vaccine as cost-effective and recommended national HPV vaccination.

Conclusion

The majority of economic studies favored national HPV vaccination for adolescent males and females in various countries. Feasibility of this strategy and implementation remains an open question, in addition to screening coverage rate in countries with no vaccine programs or countries yet to introduce national HPV vaccination.

Impact of including boys in the national school-based human papillomavirus vaccination programme in Singapore: A modelling-based cost-effectiveness analysis

Globally, gender-neutral Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programmes are gaining traction. Although cervical cancer remains the most prevalent, other HPV-related cancers are increasingly recognised as important, especially among men who have sex with men. We assessed if including adolescent boys in Singapore's school-based HPV vaccination programme is cost-effective from the healthcare perspective. We adapted a World Health Organization-supported model, Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics, and modelled the cost and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) associated with vaccinating 13-year-olds with the HPV vaccine. Cancer incidence and mortality rates were obtained from local sources and adjusted based on the expected direct and indirect vaccine protection for various population subgroups at an 80 % vaccine coverage. Moving to a gender-neutral vaccination programme with a bivalent or nonavalent vaccine could avert 30 (95 % uncertainty interval [UI]: 20-44) and 34 (95 % UI: 24-49) HPV-related cancers per birth cohort, respectively. At a 3 % discount rate, a gender-neutral vaccination programme is not cost-effective. However, with a 1.5 % discount rate, which puts more value on long-term health gains from vaccination, moving to a gender-neutral vaccination programme with the bivalent vaccine is likely cost-effective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of SGD$19 007 (95 % UI: 10 164-30 633) per QALY gained. The findings suggest the need to engage experts to examine, in detail, the cost-effectiveness of gender-neutral vaccination programmes in Singapore. Issues of drug licensing, feasibility, gender equity, global vaccine supplies, and the global trend towards disease elimination/eradication should also be considered. This model provides a simplified method for resource-strapped countries to gain a preliminary estimate of the cost-effectiveness of a gender-neutral HPV vaccination programme before investing resources for further research.

Human papillomavirus vaccination in Africa: An airway perspective

INTRODUCTION

Recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (RRP) is a chronic condition caused by Human papillomavirus six (HPV-6) and HPV-11 that involves the respiratory tract. Disease severity ranges from mild (hoarseness), through to severe (stridor, respiratory distress and airway emergencies). Africa has the fastest growing and youngest population of all the continents. It also has the greatest burden of cervical cancer. There is an association with infection of the oncogenic HPV strains and the strains responsible for RRP. It is reasonable to conclude that although RRP may be underestimated in low-to-middle-income countries, it poses a considerable health risk to Africa. The primary aim of this project was to assess the suitability of HPV vaccination coverage on the African continent.

METHODS

A prospective study was designed to consist of an online survey. It was distributed to 135 African otolaryngologists. Questions focussed on HPV vaccination programmes; whether they were government directed; and their rollout. Information from countries that had multiple otolaryngologists respond to the survey were compared. Additionally, data review and corroboration were performed.

RESULTS

There were 58 (43%) participants from 19 countries. Nine countries reported a national vaccination programme (NVP), five used Cervarix; four used quadrivalent Gardasil. Collateral data revealed 18 of 54 countries had NVP in Africa and 26 countries had completed HPV vaccine pilot or demonstration projects.

CONCLUSIONS

HPV vaccination in Africa should be urgently re-evaluated to include the HPV-6 and HPV-11 strains that cause JORRP, which have not been recognised during national vaccination programme planning.

Planning for resilience in screening operations using discrete event simulation modeling: example of HPV testing in Peru

Background

The World Health Organization (WHO) has called for the elimination of cervical cancer. Unfortunately, the implementation of cost-effective prevention and control strategies has faced significant barriers, such as insufficient guidance on best practices for resource and operations planning. Therefore, we demonstrate the value of discrete event simulation (DES) in implementation science research and practice, particularly to support the programmatic and operational planning for sustainable and resilient delivery of healthcare interventions. Our specific example shows how DES models can inform planning for scale-up and resilient operations of a new HPV-based screen and treat program in Iquitos, an Amazonian city of Peru.

Methods

Using data from a time and motion study and cervical cancer screening registry from Iquitos, Peru, we developed a DES model to conduct virtual experimentation with “what-if” scenarios that compare different workflow and processing strategies under resource constraints and disruptions to the screening system.

Results

Our simulations show how much the screening system’s capacity can be increased at current resource levels, how much variability in service times can be tolerated, and the extent of resilience to disruptions such as curtailed resources. The simulations also identify the resources that would be required to scale up for larger target populations or increased resilience to disruptions, illustrating the key tradeoff between resilience and efficiency. Thus, our results demonstrate how DES models can inform specific resourcing decisions but can also highlight important tradeoffs and suggest general “rules” for resource and operational planning.

Conclusions

Multilevel planning and implementation challenges are not unique to sustainable adoption of cervical cancer screening programs but represent common barriers to the successful scale-up of many preventative health interventions worldwide. DES represents a broadly applicable tool to address complex implementation challenges identified at the national, regional, and local levels across settings and health interventions—how to make effective and efficient operational and resourcing decisions to support program adaptation to local constraints and demands so that they are resilient to changing demands and more likely to be maintained with fidelity over time.

Estimating the effect of HIV on cervical cancer elimination in South Africa: Comparative modelling of the impact of vaccination and screening

Background

In 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) launched its initiative to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem. To inform global efforts for countries with high HIV and cervical cancer burden, we assessed the impact of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and cervical cancer screening and treatment in South Africa, on cervical cancer and the potential for achieving elimination before 2120, considering faster HPV disease progression and higher cervical cancer risk among women living with HIV(WLHIV) and HIV interventions.

Methods

Three independent transmission-dynamic models simulating HIV and HPV infections and disease progression were used to predict the impact on cervical cancer incidence of three scenarios for all women: 1) girls' vaccination (9-14 years old), 2) girls' vaccination plus 1 lifetime cervical screen (at 35 years), and 3) girls' vaccination plus 2 lifetime cervical screens (at 35 and 45 years) and three enhanced scenarios for WLHIV: 4) vaccination of young WLHIV aged 15-24 years, 5) three-yearly cervical screening of WLHIV aged 15-49 years, or 6) both. Vaccination assumed 90% coverage and 100% lifetime protection with the nonavalent vaccine (against HPV-16/18/31/33/45/52/58). Cervical cancer screening assumed HPV testing with uptake increasing from 45% (2023), 70% (2030) to 90% (2045+). We also assumed that UNAIDS 90-90-90 HIV treatment and 70% male circumcision targets are reached by 2030. We examined three elimination thresholds: age-standardised cervical cancer incidence rates below 4 or 10 per 100,000 women-years, and >85% reduction in cervical cancer incidence rate. We conducted sensitivity analyses and presented the median age-standardised predictions of outcomes of the three models (minimum-maximum across models).

Findings

Girls' vaccination could reduce age-standardised cervical cancer incidence from a median of 47.6 (40.9-79.2) in 2020 to 4.5 (3.2-6.3) per 100,000 women-years by 2120, averting on average ∼4% and ∼46% of age-standardised cumulative cervical cancer cases over 25 and 100 years, respectively, compared to the basecase. Adding 2 lifetime screens helped achieve elimination over the century among all women (2120 cervical cancer incidence: 3.6 (1.9-3.6) per 100,000 women-years), but not among WLHIV (10.8 (5.3-11.6)), and averted more cumulative cancer cases overall (∼45% over 25 years and ∼61% over 100 years compared to basecase) than girls' vaccination alone. Adding three-yearly cervical screening among WLHIV (to girls' vaccination and 2 lifetime cervical screens) further reduced age-standardised cervical cancer incidence to 3.3 (1.8-3.6) per 100,000 women-years overall and to 5.2 (3.9-8.5) among WLHIV by 2120 and averted on average 12-13% additional cumulative cancer cases among all women and 21-24% among WLHIV than girls' vaccination and 2 lifetime cervical screens over 25 years or longer. Long-term vaccine protection and using the nonavalent vaccine was required for elimination.

Interpretation

High HPV vaccination coverage of girls and 2 lifetime cervical screens could eliminate cervical cancer among women overall in South Africa by the end of the century and substantially decrease cases among all women and WLHIV over the short and medium term. Cervical cancer elimination in WLHIV would likely require enhanced prevention strategies for WLHIV. Screening of WLHIV remains an important strategy to reduce incidence and alleviate disparities in cervical cancer burden between women with and without HIV, despite HIV interventions scale-up.

Funding

World Health Organization. National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, UK Medical Research Council. National Institute of Child Health and Human Development research. Cancer Association of South Africa. Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the Fonds de recherche du Québec - Santé research.

Prevention of Cervical Cancer in Low-Resource African Settings

Cervical cancer is a leading cause of cancer among women. Approximately 350,000 women die from cervical needlessly from cancer each year, and 85% of the global burden occurs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Disparities in the incidence and mortality between LMICs and industrialized countries can be attributed to differences in access to human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and cervical cancer screening and treatment. The World Health Organization (WHO) is leading a renewed international effort to reduce the global burden of cervical cancer. In this article, we discuss recommendations for HPV vaccination, primary HPV screening, and treatment of precancerous lesions.

Turkish mothers' knowledge and attitude about HPV vaccine

BACKGROUND

The study aimed to evaluate the knowledge and attitude of Turkish mothers about cervix cancer,HPV infection and vaccination.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted the mothers with children aged under 18 years who applied pediatric outpatient clinic.Research data were collected using a face-to-face survey includes sociodemographic characteristics of patients and mothers' knowledge level and attitude about the vaccination for HPV and cervical cancer.

RESULTS

The rate of mothers who stated that they knew the causes of cervical cancer was 30.3%. Of the 71.5% mothers did not know whether there was a vaccine that protects against cervical cancer.Of the mothers who stated to have heard about the HPV vaccine, 39.2% said that the HPV vaccine is received at 9 years and above, 35.7% said that it could be given to both genders, and 75% knew that the vaccine is not reimbursed. Educational status (p < 0.001), working as a healthcare worker (p < 0.001) and the level of income (p < 0.001), were significantly correlated with the awareness of the causes of cervical cancer in a positive direction. None of the participants vaccinated their child, 91.5% ask for information about HPV and 67.3% stated that they might consider vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

The development of vaccines against HPV has significantly changed the approach used in the treatment of cervical cancer. Healthcare professionals have a great responsibility to inform the public about the HPV vaccine.

PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS

Healthcare providers can use the results of this study to identify parents at risk for vaccine hesitancy and initiate individualized education to promote on-time childhood vaccination.

HPV Vaccine Hesitancy and Influencing Factors among University Students in China: A Cross-Sectional Survey Based on the 3Cs Model

The burden of disease caused by cervical cancer ranked second among female tumors in China. The HPV vaccine has been proven to be a cost-effective measure to prevent cervical cancer, but the vaccination rate remained low to date among university students. This study aimed to understand the status quo of HPV vaccine hesitancy among university students across China during the COVID-19 pandemics and systematically analyze determinants of HPV vaccine hesitancy based on the WHO 3Cs model. Cross-sectional data were collected using an online survey of female university students in four cities across China in June 2022. Multinomial logistic regression was adopted to determine factors influencing vaccine hesitancy based on the 3Cs model with three dimensions, namely complacency, convenience, and confidence. Among 1438 female university students surveyed in this study, 89.7% did not hesitate to vaccinate against HPV, only 8.9% hesitated to some extent, and 1.4% refused to vaccinate. The actual vaccination rate for the HPV vaccine was 34.2%. Based on the 3Cs model, this study found that the trust on the efficacy of vaccines, risk perception of being infected by HPV, price, and distance/time were influencing factors of vaccine hesitancy. Knowledge of the HPV vaccine and sociodemographic characteristics, such as education levels, were also statistically relevant. Therefore, it is recommended that relevant scientific knowledge on cervical cancer and the HPV vaccine should be spread on campus, the vaccination appointment procedure should be simplified, and the affordability of vaccination should be increased through strategic purchasing or providing subsidies, so as to reduce HPV vaccine hesitancy.

Economic Evaluations of HPV Vaccination in Targeted Regions of Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review of Modelling Studies

Background

In countries with limited resources, a targeted HPV vaccination strategy by focusing in selected regions is preferable to be implemented than a nationwide vaccination strategy.

Objective

This study aimed to review articles on economic evaluations of HPV vaccination in countries over the world that applied targeted vaccination strategies.

Methods

Approximately 1769 articles were obtained from two databases (1242 and 527 articles from PubMed and ProQuest, respectively). The inclusion criteria in this systematic review were studies about full economic evaluations of HPV vaccination in targeted area or sub-national level and written in English. Full-text screening was applied to evaluate the eligibility. Final articles obtained were referred to the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standard (CHEERS) checklist. Finally, we included only 4 articles that met all inclusion and exclusion criteria.

Results

Included studies in this review focused in different targeted regions, such as Punjab State in India, Vientiane in Lao PDR, Southern Vietnam in Vietnam, and Brazilian Amazon in Brazil. From 24 criteria in the CHEERS checklist, all included studies could meet 21 criteria (87.5%). All included studies in this review applied modeling approaches, which can estimate the number of cases and treatment costs averted. Applying various settings, the results of this study showed that HPV vaccination could potentially reduce the number of cervical cancer cases by 20–72%. Taking cervical cancer screening into account, this study showed that targeted HPV vaccination was cost-effective or even cost-saving.

Conclusion

Implementation of HPV vaccination in sub-national level as the initial step before nationwide vaccination is more favorable to be implemented in countries with limited budget.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Inguinal Hernia Repair With Mesh Performed by Surgeons and Medical Doctors in Ghana

OBJECTIVES

Task-sharing is the pragmatic sharing of tasks between providers with different levels of training. To our knowledge, no study has examined the cost-effectiveness of surgical task-sharing of hernia repair in a low-resource setting. This study has aimed to evaluate and compare the cost-effectiveness of mesh repair performed by Ghanaian surgeons and medical doctors (MDs) following a standardized training program.

METHODS

This cost-effectiveness analysis included data for 223 operations on adult men with primary reducible inguinal hernia. Cost per surgery was calculated from the healthcare system perspective. Disability weights were calculated using pre- and postoperative pain scores and benchmarks from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

RESULTS

The mean cost/disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted in the surgeon group was 444.9 United States dollars (USD) (95% confidence interval [CI] 221.2-668.5) and 278.9 USD (95% CI 199.3-358.5) in the MD group (P = .168), indicating that the operation is very cost-effective when performed by both providers. The incremental cost/DALY averted showed that task-sharing with MDs is also very cost-effective (95% bootstrap CI -436.7 to 454.9). The analysis found that increasing provider salaries is cost-effective if productivity remains high. When only symptomatic cases were analyzed, the mean cost/DALY averted reduced to 232.0 USD (95% CI 17.1-446.8) for the surgeon group and 129.7 USD (95% CI 79.6-179.8) for the MD group (P = .348), and the incremental cost/DALY averted increased by 45% but remained robust.

CONCLUSIONS

Elective inguinal hernia repair with mesh performed by Ghanaian surgeons and MDs is a low-cost procedure and very cost-effective in the context of the study. To maximize cost-effectiveness, symptomatic patients should be prioritized over asymptomatic patients and a high level of productivity should be maintained.

Awareness of human papillomavirus and acceptability of the vaccine among women in Palestine: is it time for policy adjustment?

Background

Progress has been made in the reduction of morbidity and mortality of cervical cancer by the implementation of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programs. This study aimed to assess the awareness of Palestinian women about HPV as well as their knowledge and acceptability of the HPV vaccine and to examine the factors associated with good awareness.

Methods

This was a national cross-sectional study. Adult women were recruited from hospitals, primary healthcare centers, and public spaces in 11 Palestinian governorates using convenience sampling. A structured questionnaire was used for data collection. For each correctly answered question, one point was given. The total score was calculated and categorized into poor (0–10) and good awareness (11–21).

Results

The questionnaire was completed by 7223 women out of 8086 who were approached (response rate = 89.3%). A total of 7058 questionnaires were included in the final analysis; 4403 from the West Bank and Jerusalem (WBJ) and 2655 from the Gaza Strip. Women recruited from the Gaza Strip were younger, getting lower monthly incomes, and with fewer chronic diseases than women recruited from the WBJ.

Only 33 women (0.5%) displayed good awareness of HPV and its vaccine with 0.7% of women from WBJ and only 0.2% of women from the Gaza Strip. Completing post-secondary education, being employed or a student, and having a higher monthly income were associated with an increase in the likelihood of having good awareness.

Among women who had heard of HPV (n = 571, 8.1%), only 46 women (8.1%) reported familiarity with its vaccine. Women from the WBJ were more likely than women from the Gaza Strip to have heard about the HPV vaccine (0.9% vs. 0.2%). Most women agreed to receive the HPV vaccine themselves or for their daughters if it was given without cost or with a co-payment. No differences were found in the likelihood of agreeing to receive the HPV vaccine among women in the WBJ versus the Gaza Strip.

Conclusion

The overall awareness of HPV and its vaccine was extremely low. Inclusion of the HPV vaccine in the national immunization program could change this, especially as the HPV vaccine appeared to be acceptable.

Recommendations for the prevention, screening, diagnosis, staging, and management of cervical cancer in areas with limited resources: Report from the International Gynecological Cancer Society consensus meeting

Introduction

Nearly 85% of cervical cancer new cases are diagnosed in limited resources countries. Although several strategies have been proposed to reduce the disease burden, challenges remain to provide the best possible care. We report recommendations from an expert consensus meeting convened to address from prevention to management of cervical cancer in limited resources countries.

Methods

The expert panel, composed by invited specialists from 38 developing countries in Africa, Asia, Eastern Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East, convened in Rio de Janeiro in September 2019, during the Global Meeting of the International Gynecological Cancer Society (IGCS). Panel members considered the published scientific evidence and their practical experience on the topics, as well as the perceived cost-effectiveness of, and access to, the available interventions. The focus of the recommendations was on geographic regions rather than entire countries because medical practice varies considerably in the countries represented. Resource limitation was qualified as limited access to qualified surgeons, contemporary imaging or radiation-oncology techniques, antineoplastic drugs, or overall funding for provision of state-of-the-art care. Consensus was defined as at least 75% of the voting members selecting a particular answer of the multiple-choice questionnaire, whereas the majority vote was considered as 50% to 74.9%.

Results

Consensus was reached for 25 of the 121 (20.7%) questions, whereas for 54 (44.6%) questions there was one option garnering between 50% to 74.9% of votes (majority votes). For the remaining questions, considerable heterogeneity in responses was observed.

Discussion

The implementation of international guidelines is challenging in countries with resource limitations or unique health-care landscapes. The development of guidelines by the health care providers in those regions is more reflective of the reality on the ground and may improve medical practice and patient care. However, challenges remain toward achieving that goal at political, economic, social, and medical levels.

HPV Vaccination Coverage Rate in a Rural Area: An Observational, Retrospective, and Cohort Study

In order to reduce the incidence and mortality rate of cervical cancer, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the Global Strategy Goal for 2030, advocating for reaching a vaccination coverage rate of >90% against human papillomavirus for girls by the age of 15 years. The main objectives of this study were (1) to determine the papillomavirus vaccination coverage among women 15−40 years old and (2) to identify the at-risk subgroups and possible barriers to achieving WHO’s 2030 goal. Multicentre, observational, retrospective, and community-based cohort studies were conducted on women from a rural area in southern Catalonia until 31 December 2021. A total of 23,136 women were included, with a mean age of 26.6 (SD = 5.6) years. The average dose number was 1.7 (SD = 0.7). The results showed overall vaccination coverage of 17.4% among the target women. This coverage was unequal across regions (16.6−24.5%, p < 0.001), primary healthcare teams (15.5−24.3%, p < 0.001), and age groups (56.7% (15−19-year-olds) vs. 3.8% (35−40-year-olds), p < 0.001), related to accessibility to vaccination and economic−geographical indicators. Clinical practice guidelines on screening individuals at risk in terms of vaccination access and public vaccination protocols should be implemented in order to improve the vaccination coverage rate.

The Impact of Broader Value Elements on Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: Two Case Studies

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to explore the impact of including broader value elements in cost-effectiveness analyses by presenting 2 case studies, one on human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and one on early-stage Hodgkin's lymphoma (ESHL).

METHODS

We identified broader value elements (eg, patient and caregiver time, spillover health effects, productivity) from the Second Panel's Impact Inventory and the ISPOR Special Task Force's value flower. We then evaluated the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination versus no vaccination (case 1) and combined modality therapy (CMT) versus chemotherapy alone for treatment of adult ESHL (case 2) using published simulation models. For each case study, we compared incremental cost-effectiveness ratios considering health sector impacts only (the "base-case" scenario) with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios incorporating broader value elements.

RESULTS

For vaccination of US girls against HPV before sexual debut versus no vaccination, the base-case result was $38 334 per disability-adjusted life-year averted. Including each broader value element made cost-effectiveness progressively more favorable, with HPV vaccination becoming cost-saving (ie, reducing costs and averting more disability-adjusted life-years) when the analysis incorporated productivity costs. For CMT versus chemotherapy alone in patients with ESHL, the base-case result indicated that CMT was cost-saving. Including all elements made this treatment's net monetary benefits (the sum of its averted resource costs and the net value of its health impacts) less favorable, even as the contribution from CMT's near-term health benefits grew.

CONCLUSIONS

Including broader value elements can substantially influence cost-effectiveness ratios, although the direction and the magnitude of their impact can differ across interventions and disease context.

The Involvement of Human Papilloma Virus in Gastrointestinal Cancers

Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) is one of the most common sexually transmitted infections worldwide. HPV infection has a strong relationship with the onset of cervix uteri, vagina, penis, anus, and oropharynx, but also tonsils and tongue cancers. Some epidemiological data indicate that except for gynecologic cancers, HPV infection can be one of the risk factors associated with a greater risk of induction and progression of gastrointestinal cancers. Data, however, remain contradictory and definite conclusions cannot be drawn, so far. The following review aims to organize recent evidence and summarize the current state of knowledge regarding the association between HPV infection and gastrointestinal tumors primarily focusing on esophageal, liver, gastric, colorectal, and anal cancers.

On Imported and Domestic Human Papillomavirus Vaccines: Cognition, Attitude, and Willingness to Pay in Chinese Medical Students

This study aimed to analyze the cognition, attitude, and willingness to pay (WTP) for imported and domestic human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines in Chinese medical students.

An Umbrella Review of the Cost Effectiveness of Human Papillomavirus Vaccines

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Although many systematic reviews for the human papillomavirus vaccines cost effectiveness have been published, they vary in perspectives, methods, and quality. We aimed to condense systematically such evidence to facilitate locating, processing, and learning, not only about the consensus of findings but also how models were built and their evolution over time and across settings.

METHODS

We conducted an umbrella review of cost-effectiveness studies for human papillomavirus vaccines using three databases (PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane). Based on their objectives, we classified studies into three groups (human papillomavirus vaccines cost effectiveness, model characteristics, and all-type vaccines, including human papillomavirus vaccines). We used the AMTAR2 to assess the quality of the studies. Additionally, we provided a summary of study findings, discussions, and evidence gaps in the literature.

RESULTS

Though most studies were critically low quality and had a low quality of reporting, the human papillomavirus vaccine was consistently cost effective in young girls and men who have sex with men. Stratified analyses by rated quality did not change the results. The quality assessment of the reviews did not necessarily reflect the quality assessment of underlying studies. The human papillomavirus vaccine models became more complex over time, capturing more realistic disease transmission with different human papillomavirus strains and herd immunities.

CONCLUSIONS

Additional evidence is needed for vulnerable populations (e.g., childhood cancer survivors) who are at high risk for human papillomavirus vaccine-related cancers and, therefore, may be more cost effective when receiving human papillomavirus vaccines. Quantifying human papillomavirus vaccine cost effectiveness via meta-analyses is feasible if investigators can increase the homogeneity of their populations.

HPV Vaccine Hesitancy Among Medical Students in China: A Multicenter Survey

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the most common genital tract virus infection and can cause genital warts and cervical cancer. This multicenter study examined HPV information sources, vaccine hesitancy, and the association between the two variables. An online survey of HPV information sources and vaccine hesitancy was conducted among Chinese medical students. The World Health Organization (WHO) Vaccine Hesitancy 3Cs model was used to evaluate reasons for respondents' vaccine hesitancy. A probit model was used to investigate the association between vaccine information sources and vaccine hesitancy. The reported rate of vaccine hesitancy was 62.36%. Convenience was the primary factor for vaccine hesitancy in medical students, and 19% used a single source to obtain vaccine information. A multivariate analysis revealed that master degree and above were 33% less likely to be hesitant about the HPV vaccine than first grade students. Respondents receiving HPV information through doctor were 8% less likely to report vaccine hesitancy than those receiving information from other information channels. HPV vaccine hesitancy requires more attention. Future studies could examine whether increasing vaccination locations and dissemination of information about the safety and effectiveness of HPV vaccines as well as using Internet media would help reduce medical students' vaccine hesitancy and expand HPV vaccine coverage.

Factors Associated with Attitudes towards Preventing Head and Neck Cancer through HPV Vaccination in Poland: A Nationwide Cross-Sectional Survey in 2021

Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is a risk factor for head and neck cancers (HNC). HPV-related head and neck cancers are preventable through vaccination. This study aimed to assess the attitudes towards HPV vaccination among adults in Poland, with particular emphasis on preventing HPV-related HNC, as well as identifying factors associated with a willingness to vaccinate children against HPV. This cross-sectional survey was carried out in November 2021 on a nationwide, representative sample of 1082 adults in Poland. The computer-assisted web interview (CAWI) technique was used. Only 42.5% of respondents were aware that HPV infection is a sexually transmitted disease. Less than one fourth of respondents (23.8%) indicated vaccination as an HPV infection prevention method and 51.9% of respondents correctly indicated HPV vaccine-eligible populations. Only 48.1% of respondents declared positive attitudes towards HPV vaccinations and declared that they would vaccinate their child against HPV. Males (OR: 1.43, 95% CI: 1.11−1.85; p < 0.01), respondents who did not have children (OR: 1.50, 95% CI: 1.04−2.14; p < 0.05), as well as those who had received a higher education (OR: 1.43, 95% CI: 1.11−1.85; p < 0.01), had greater odds of indicating positive attitudes towards HPV vaccinations. This study revealed a low level of public awareness of HPV vaccination as a cancer prevention method in Poland.

Priority setting of vaccine introduction in Bangladesh: a multicriteria decision analysis study

OBJECTIVE

To prioritise vaccines for introduction in Bangladesh.

METHODS

Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) process was used to prioritise potential vaccines for introduction in Bangladesh. A set of criteria were identified, weighted and assigned scores by relevant stakeholders (n=14) during workshop A. The performance matrix of the data of vaccines against the criteria set was constructed and validated with the experts (n=6) in workshop B. The vaccines were ranked and appraised by another group of stakeholders (n=10) in workshop C, and the final workshop D involved the dissemination of the findings to decision-makers (n=28).

RESULTS

Five criteria including incidence rate, case fatality rate, vaccine efficacy, size of the population at risk and type of population at risk were used quantitatively to evaluate and to score the vaccines. Two other criteria, cost-effectiveness and outbreak potentiality, were considered qualitatively. On deliberation, the Japanese encephalitis (JE) vaccine was ranked top to be recommended for introduction in Bangladesh.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the MCDA results, JE vaccine is planned to be recommended to the decision-makers for introduction into the national vaccine benefit package. The policymakers support the use of systematic evidence-based decision-making processes such as MCDA for vaccine introduction in Bangladesh, and to prioritise health interventions in the country.

Frequency and impact of the inclusion of broader measures of value in economic evaluations of vaccines

BACKGROUND

The health and economic benefits of immunization may extend beyond the elements traditionally included in cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs). This review investigated how broader impacts are considered in economic evaluations of vaccines and whether their inclusion would substantially change CEA findings.

METHODS

We reviewed CEAs of vaccines associated with the largest global health burden, published from 2014 to 2019 using the Tufts CEA Registry and Tufts Global Health CEA Registry. We supplemented this with a systematic review of published and grey literature. We conducted descriptive analyses to examine the frequency of inclusion of specific social factors and study characteristics associated with their inclusion. We also conducted a case study of the human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccine to illustrate the potential change in CEA findings from selected social impacts.

RESULTS

We identified 475 relevant health economic assessments. Overall, 40% of studies included at least one category of social impact. The most commonly included non-healthcare cost among cost-per-QALY studies was productivity (25%), while cost-per-DALY studies reported transportation costs most frequently (24%). Few studies examined the impact of vaccination on other sectors such as education and housing (<3%). Middle-income and North American settings were positively associated with social impact inclusion, while sub-Saharan African location was negatively associated. In the HPV case study, the addition of nonhealth costs improved cost-effectiveness by up to 90% or made the vaccine cost-saving, depending on geographic setting. The cost-saving scenario saved up to $30,000 in costs per case of cervical cancer averted.

CONCLUSIONS

A minority of vaccine CEAs include social impacts, particularly for nonhealth sectors. The omission of these impacts may result in a systematic undervaluation of vaccines from a societal perspective. Further efforts are required to document the full benefits of vaccination for policymaker consideration.

Projections of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination impact in Ethiopia, India, Nigeria and Pakistan: a comparative modelling study

Introduction

Cervical cancer is the second most common cancer among women in Ethiopia, India, Nigeria and Pakistan. Our study objective was to assess similarities and differences in vaccine-impact projections through comparative modelling analysis by independently estimating the potential health impact of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination.

Methods

Using two widely published models (Harvard and Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME)) to estimate HPV vaccination impact, we simulated a vaccination scenario of 90% annual coverage among 10 cohorts of 9-year-old girls from 2021 to 2030 in Ethiopia, India, Nigeria and Pakistan. We estimated potential health impact in terms of cervical cancer cases, deaths and disability-adjusted life years averted among vaccinated cohorts from the time of vaccination until 2100. We harmonised the two models by standardising input data to comparatively estimate HPV vaccination impact.

Results

Prior to harmonising model assumptions, the range between PRIME and Harvard models for number of cervical cancer cases averted by HPV vaccination was: 262 000 to 2 70 000 in Ethiopia; 1 640 000 to 1 970 000 in India; 330 000 to 3 36 000 in Nigeria and 111 000 to 1 33 000 in Pakistan. When harmonising model assumptions, alignment on HPV type distribution significantly narrowed differences in vaccine-impact estimates.

Conclusion

Despite model differences, the Harvard and PRIME models yielded similar vaccine-impact estimates. The main differences in estimates are due to variation in interpretation around data on cervical cancer attribution to HPV-16/18. As countries make progress towards WHO targets for cervical cancer elimination, continued explorations of underlying differences in model inputs, assumptions and results when examining cervical cancer prevention policy will be critical.

Worldwide initiatives to eliminate cervical cancer

In 2020, more than 600 000 women were diagnosed with cervical cancer and 342 000 women died worldwide. Without comprehensive control, rates of cervical cancer incidence and mortality are expected to worsen. In 2020, the World Health Organization adopted the global strategy to eliminate cervical cancer to the threshold of four cases per 100 000 women within the 21st century, using a triple pillar intervention strategy comprising 90% of girls fully vaccinated by the age of 15 years, 70% of women screened by the age of 35 years and again by 45 years, and 90% of women with precancer treated and 90% of women with invasive cancer managed. In countries with high cervical cancer incidence, a tremendous effort will be needed to overcome the challenges. This article discusses the efforts in place to accelerate achievement of this ambitious goal.

A triple pillar intervention strategy of vaccination, screening, and timely treatment has been adopted to guide the global ambition to eliminate cervical cancer.

The projected cost-effectiveness and budget impact of HPV vaccine introduction in Ghana

BACKGROUND

Cervical cancer is responsible for around one-quarter of all cancer deaths among Ghanaian women. Between 2013 and 2015, Ghana conducted a pilot of HPV vaccination among 10-14-year-old girls in four regions; however, the country has yet to introduce the vaccine nationally. This study projected the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of adding HPV vaccination into Ghana's national immunization program.

METHODS

We used a proportional outcomes model (UNIVAC, version 1.4) to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of introduction with bivalent (Cervarix™) and quadrivalent (Gardasil®) vaccines from government and societal perspectives. Vaccine introduction was modeled to start in 2022 and continue over ten birth cohorts using a combined delivery strategy of school (80%) and community outreach (20%). We modeled vaccination in a single age cohort of 9-year-old girls vs. a multi-age cohort of 9-year-old girls (routine) and 10-14-year-old girls (one-time campaign) compared to no vaccination. Health outcomes included cervical cancer cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). We applied a discount rate of 3% to costs and outcomes. All monetary units are reported in USD 2018.

RESULTS

National HPV vaccination in Ghana was projected to be cost-effective compared to no vaccination in all scenarios evaluated. The most cost-effective and dominant strategy was vaccination among 9-year-old girls, plus a one-time campaign among 10-14-year-old with the bivalent vaccine ($158/DALY averted from the government perspective; 95% credible range: $19-$280/DALY averted). Projected average annual costs of the vaccine program ranged from $11.2 to $15.4 M, depending on strategy. This represents 11-15% of the estimated total immunization costs for 2022 ($100,857,875 based on Ghana's comprehensive Multi-Year Plan for Immunization, 2020-2024).

DISCUSSION

Our model suggests that introducing HPV vaccination would be cost-effective in Ghana under any strategy when willingness-to-pay is at least 40% GDP per capita ($881). Inclusion of a one-time catch-up campaign is shown to create greater value for money than routine immunization alone but would incur greater program costs.

Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world

Background

Vaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and yellow fever over the years 2000-2030 across 112 countries.

Methods

Twenty-one mathematical models estimated disease burden using standardised demographic and immunisation data. Impact was attributed to the year of vaccination through vaccine-activity-stratified impact ratios.

Results

We estimate 97 (95%CrI[80, 120]) million deaths would be averted due to vaccination activities over 2000-2030, with 50 (95%CrI[41, 62]) million deaths averted by activities between 2000 and 2019. For children under-5 born between 2000 and 2030, we estimate 52 (95%CrI[41, 69]) million more deaths would occur over their lifetimes without vaccination against these diseases.

Conclusions

This study represents the largest assessment of vaccine impact before COVID-19-related disruptions and provides motivation for sustaining and improving global vaccination coverage in the future.

Funding

VIMC is jointly funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) (BMGF grant number: OPP1157270 / INV-009125). Funding from Gavi is channelled via VIMC to the Consortium's modelling groups (VIMC-funded institutions represented in this paper: Imperial College London, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Public Health England, Johns Hopkins University, The Pennsylvania State University, Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Kaiser Permanente Washington, University of Cambridge, University of Notre Dame, Harvard University, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Emory University, National University of Singapore). Funding from BMGF was used for salaries of the Consortium secretariat (authors represented here: TBH, MJ, XL, SE-L, JT, KW, NMF, KAMG); and channelled via VIMC for travel and subsistence costs of all Consortium members (all authors). We also acknowledge funding from the UK Medical Research Council and Department for International Development, which supported aspects of VIMC's work (MRC grant number: MR/R015600/1).JHH acknowledges funding from National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship; Richard and Peggy Notebaert Premier Fellowship from the University of Notre Dame. BAL acknowledges funding from NIH/NIGMS (grant number R01 GM124280) and NIH/NIAID (grant number R01 AI112970). The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) receives funding support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.This paper was compiled by all coauthors, including two coauthors from Gavi. Other funders had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report. All authors had full access to all the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication.