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Cocoros NM, Eberhardt K, Nguyen VT, Brown CM, DeMaria A, Madoff LC, Randall LM, Klompas M. Electronic Health Record-Based Algorithm for Monitoring Respiratory Virus-Like Illness. Emerg Infect Dis 2024; 30:1096-1103. [PMID: 38781684 PMCID: PMC11138993 DOI: 10.3201/eid3006.230473] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/25/2024] Open
Abstract
Viral respiratory illness surveillance has traditionally focused on single pathogens (e.g., influenza) and required fever to identify influenza-like illness (ILI). We developed an automated system applying both laboratory test and syndrome criteria to electronic health records from 3 practice groups in Massachusetts, USA, to monitor trends in respiratory viral-like illness (RAVIOLI) across multiple pathogens. We identified RAVIOLI syndrome using diagnosis codes associated with respiratory viral testing or positive respiratory viral assays or fever. After retrospectively applying RAVIOLI criteria to electronic health records, we observed annual winter peaks during 2015-2019, predominantly caused by influenza, followed by cyclic peaks corresponding to SARS-CoV-2 surges during 2020-2024, spikes in RSV in mid-2021 and late 2022, and recrudescent influenza in late 2022 and 2023. RAVIOLI rates were higher and fluctuations more pronounced compared with traditional ILI surveillance. RAVIOLI broadens the scope, granularity, sensitivity, and specificity of respiratory viral illness surveillance compared with traditional ILI surveillance.
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Montgomery MP, Morris SE, Rolfes MA, Kittikraisak W, Samuels AM, Biggerstaff M, Davis WW, Reed C, Olsen SJ. The role of asymptomatic infections in influenza transmission: what do we really know. THE LANCET. INFECTIOUS DISEASES 2024; 24:e394-e404. [PMID: 38128563 PMCID: PMC11127787 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(23)00619-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/31/2023] [Revised: 09/02/2023] [Accepted: 09/18/2023] [Indexed: 12/23/2023]
Abstract
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the role of asymptomatic influenza virus infections in influenza transmission was uncertain. However, the importance of asymptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2 for onward transmission of COVID-19 has led experts to question whether the role of asymptomatic influenza virus infections in transmission had been underappreciated. We discuss the existing evidence on the frequency of asymptomatic influenza virus infections, the extent to which they contribute to infection transmission, and remaining knowledge gaps. We propose priority areas for further evaluation, study designs, and case definitions to address existing knowledge gaps.
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Affiliation(s)
- Martha P Montgomery
- Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA; Thailand Ministry of Public Health-US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Collaboration, Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi, Thailand.
| | - Sinead E Morris
- Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Melissa A Rolfes
- Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Wanitchaya Kittikraisak
- Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA; Thailand Ministry of Public Health-US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Collaboration, Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi, Thailand
| | - Aaron M Samuels
- Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Matthew Biggerstaff
- Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - William W Davis
- Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA; Thailand Ministry of Public Health-US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Collaboration, Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi, Thailand
| | - Carrie Reed
- Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Sonja J Olsen
- Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
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Morris SE, Zipfel CM, Peer K, Madewell ZJ, Brenner S, Garg S, Paul P, Slayton RB, Biggerstaff M. Modeling the Impacts of Antiviral Prophylaxis Strategies in Mitigating Seasonal Influenza Outbreaks in Nursing Homes. Clin Infect Dis 2024; 78:1336-1344. [PMID: 38072652 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciad764] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2023] [Indexed: 05/16/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Antiviral chemoprophylaxis is recommended for use during influenza outbreaks in nursing homes to prevent transmission and severe disease among non-ill residents. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidance recommends prophylaxis be initiated for all non-ill residents once an influenza outbreak is detected and be continued for at least 14 days and until 7 days after the last laboratory-confirmed influenza case is identified. However, not all facilities strictly adhere to this guidance and the impact of such partial adherence is not fully understood. METHODS We developed a stochastic compartmental framework to model influenza transmission within an average-sized US nursing home. We compared the number of symptomatic illnesses and hospitalizations under varying prophylaxis implementation strategies, in addition to different levels of prophylaxis uptake and adherence by residents and healthcare personnel (HCP). RESULTS Prophylaxis implemented according to current guidance reduced total symptomatic illnesses and hospitalizations among residents by a median of 12% and 36%, respectively, compared with no prophylaxis. We did not find evidence that alternative implementations of prophylaxis were more effective: compared to full adoption of current guidance, partial adoption resulted in increased symptomatic illnesses and/or hospitalizations, and longer or earlier adoption offered no additional improvements. In addition, increasing uptake and adherence among nursing home residents was effective in reducing resident illnesses and hospitalizations, but increasing HCP uptake had minimal indirect impacts for residents. CONCLUSIONS The greatest benefits of influenza prophylaxis during nursing home outbreaks will likely be achieved through increasing uptake and adherence among residents and following current CDC guidance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sinead E Morris
- Influenza Division, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Casey M Zipfel
- Divison of Healthcare Quality Promotion, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Komal Peer
- Division of Environmental Health Science and Practice, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Zachary J Madewell
- Center for Global Health, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Stephan Brenner
- Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Shikha Garg
- Influenza Division, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Prabasaj Paul
- Divison of Healthcare Quality Promotion, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Rachel B Slayton
- Divison of Healthcare Quality Promotion, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Matthew Biggerstaff
- Influenza Division, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
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4
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Ehrenzeller S, Zaffini R, Pecora ND, Kanjilal S, Rhee C, Klompas M. Cycle threshold dynamics of non-severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) respiratory viruses. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2024; 45:630-634. [PMID: 38234188 DOI: 10.1017/ice.2023.286] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/19/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Many providers use severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) cycle thresholds (Ct values) as approximate measures of viral burden in association with other clinical data to inform decisions about treatment and isolation. We characterized temporal changes in Ct values for non-SARS-CoV-2 respiratory viruses as a first step to determine whether cycle thresholds could play a similar role in the management of non-SARS-CoV-2 respiratory viruses. DESIGN Retrospective cohort study. SETTING Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston. METHODS We retrospectively identified all adult patients with positive nasopharyngeal PCRs for influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenza, human metapneumovirus (HMPV), rhinovirus, or adenovirus between January 2022 and March 2023. We plotted Ct distributions relative to days since symptom onset, and we assessed whether distributions varied by immunosuppression and other comorbidities. RESULTS We analyzed 1,863 positive samples: 506 influenza, 502 rhinovirus, 430 RSV, 219 HMPV, 180 parainfluenza, 26 adenovirus. Ct values were generally 25-30 on the day of symptom onset, lower over the ensuing 1-3 days, and progressively higher thereafter with Ct values ≥30 after 1 week for most viruses. Ct values were generally higher and more stable over time for rhinovirus. There was no association between immunocompromised status and median intervals from symptom onset until Ct values were ≥30. CONCLUSIONS Ct values relative to symptom onset for influenza, RSV, and other non-SARS-CoV-2 respiratory viruses generally mirror patterns seen with SARS-CoV-2. Further data on associations between Ct values and viral viability, transmissibility, host characteristics, and response to treatment for non-SARS-CoV-2 respiratory viruses are needed to determine how clinicians and infection preventionists might integrate Ct values into treatment and isolation decisions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Selina Ehrenzeller
- Department of Population Medicine, Harvard Medical School and Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute, Boston, Massachusetts, United States
- Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, United States
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Hospital Epidemiology, University Hospital Basel, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
- Department of Medicine, Limmattal Hospital Zurich, Schlieren, Switzerland
| | - Rebecca Zaffini
- Department of Pathology, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, United States
| | - Nicole D Pecora
- Department of Pathology, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, United States
| | - Sanjat Kanjilal
- Department of Population Medicine, Harvard Medical School and Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute, Boston, Massachusetts, United States
- Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, United States
| | - Chanu Rhee
- Department of Population Medicine, Harvard Medical School and Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute, Boston, Massachusetts, United States
- Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, United States
| | - Michael Klompas
- Department of Population Medicine, Harvard Medical School and Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute, Boston, Massachusetts, United States
- Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, United States
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5
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Morris S, Gilmer M, Threlkel R, Brammer L, Budd A, Iuliano A, Reed C, Biggerstaff M. Detection of Novel Influenza Viruses Through Community and Healthcare Testing: Implications for Surveillance Efforts in the United States. Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2024; 18:e13315. [PMID: 38798083 PMCID: PMC11128772 DOI: 10.1111/irv.13315] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/03/2023] [Revised: 04/27/2024] [Accepted: 04/29/2024] [Indexed: 05/29/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Novel influenza viruses pose a potential pandemic risk, and rapid detection of infections in humans is critical to characterizing the virus and facilitating the implementation of public health response measures. METHODS We use a probabilistic framework to estimate the likelihood that novel influenza virus cases would be detected through testing in different community and healthcare settings (urgent care, emergency department, hospital, and intensive care unit [ICU]) while at low frequencies in the United States. Parameters were informed by data on seasonal influenza virus activity and existing testing practices. RESULTS In a baseline scenario reflecting the presence of 100 novel virus infections with similar severity to seasonal influenza viruses, the median probability of detecting at least one infection per month was highest in urgent care settings (72%) and when community testing was conducted at random among the general population (77%). However, urgent care testing was over 15 times more efficient (estimated as the number of cases detected per 100,000 tests) due to the larger number of tests required for community testing. In scenarios that assumed increased clinical severity of novel virus infection, median detection probabilities increased across all healthcare settings, particularly in hospitals and ICUs (up to 100%) where testing also became more efficient. CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest that novel influenza virus circulation is likely to be detected through existing healthcare surveillance, with the most efficient testing setting impacted by the disease severity profile. These analyses can help inform future testing strategies to maximize the likelihood of novel influenza detection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sinead E. Morris
- Influenza DivisionCenters for Disease Control and PreventionAtlantaGeorgiaUSA
- Goldbelt Professional ServicesChesapeakeVirginiaUSA
| | - Matthew Gilmer
- Influenza DivisionCenters for Disease Control and PreventionAtlantaGeorgiaUSA
- Goldbelt Professional ServicesChesapeakeVirginiaUSA
| | - Ryan Threlkel
- Influenza DivisionCenters for Disease Control and PreventionAtlantaGeorgiaUSA
| | - Lynnette Brammer
- Influenza DivisionCenters for Disease Control and PreventionAtlantaGeorgiaUSA
| | - Alicia P. Budd
- Influenza DivisionCenters for Disease Control and PreventionAtlantaGeorgiaUSA
| | - A. Danielle Iuliano
- Influenza DivisionCenters for Disease Control and PreventionAtlantaGeorgiaUSA
| | - Carrie Reed
- Influenza DivisionCenters for Disease Control and PreventionAtlantaGeorgiaUSA
| | - Matthew Biggerstaff
- Influenza DivisionCenters for Disease Control and PreventionAtlantaGeorgiaUSA
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6
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Bi Q, Dickerman BA, Nguyen HQ, Martin ET, Gaglani M, Wernli KJ, Balasubramani G, Flannery B, Lipsitch M, Cobey S. Reduced effectiveness of repeat influenza vaccination: distinguishing among within-season waning, recent clinical infection, and subclinical infection. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2024:2023.03.12.23287173. [PMID: 37016669 PMCID: PMC10071822 DOI: 10.1101/2023.03.12.23287173] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/19/2023]
Abstract
Studies have reported that prior-season influenza vaccination is associated with higher risk of clinical influenza infection among vaccinees. This effect might arise from incomplete consideration of within-season waning and recent infection. Using data from the US Flu Vaccine Effectiveness (VE) Network (2011-2012 to 2018-2019 seasons), we found that repeat vaccinees were vaccinated earlier in a season by one week. After accounting for waning VE, repeat vaccinees were still more likely to test positive for A(H3N2) (OR=1.11, 95%CI:1.02-1.21) but not for influenza B or A(H1N1). We found that clinical infection influenced individuals' decision to vaccinate in the following season while protecting against clinical infection of the same (sub)type. However, adjusting for recent clinical infections did not strongly influence the estimated effect of prior-season vaccination. In contrast, we found that adjusting for subclinical infection could theoretically attenuate this effect. Additional investigation is needed to determine the impact of subclinical infections on VE.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qifang Bi
- University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
| | | | - Huong Q. Nguyen
- Center for Clinical Epidemiology & Population Health, Marshfield Clinic Research Institute, Marshfield, Wisconsin, USA
| | - Emily T. Martin
- University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
| | - Manjusha Gaglani
- Baylor Scott & White Health, Temple, Texas, USA
- Texas A&M University College of Medicine, Temple, Texas, USA
| | - Karen J. Wernli
- Kaiser Permanente Bernard J. Tyson School of Medicine, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - G.K. Balasubramani
- University of Pittsburgh School of Public Health, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Brendan Flannery
- National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, US
| | - Marc Lipsitch
- Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Sarah Cobey
- University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
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Hay JA, Zhu H, Jiang CQ, Kwok KO, Shen R, Kucharski A, Yang B, Read JM, Lessler J, Cummings DAT, Riley S. Reconstructed influenza A/H3N2 infection histories reveal variation in incidence and antibody dynamics over the life course. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2024:2024.03.18.24304371. [PMID: 38562868 PMCID: PMC10984066 DOI: 10.1101/2024.03.18.24304371] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/04/2024]
Abstract
Humans experience many influenza infections over their lives, resulting in complex and varied immunological histories. Although experimental and quantitative analyses have improved our understanding of the immunological processes defining an individual's antibody repertoire, how these within-host processes are linked to population-level influenza epidemiology remains unclear. Here, we used a multi-level mathematical model to jointly infer antibody dynamics and individual-level lifetime influenza A/H3N2 infection histories for 1,130 individuals in Guangzhou, China, using 67,683 haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay measurements against 20 A/H3N2 strains from repeat serum samples collected between 2009 and 2015. These estimated infection histories allowed us to reconstruct historical seasonal influenza patterns and to investigate how influenza incidence varies over time, space and age in this population. We estimated median annual influenza infection rates to be approximately 18% from 1968 to 2015, but with substantial variation between years. 88% of individuals were estimated to have been infected at least once during the study period (2009-2015), and 20% were estimated to have three or more infections in that time. We inferred decreasing infection rates with increasing age, and found that annual attack rates were highly correlated across all locations, regardless of their distance, suggesting that age has a stronger impact than fine-scale spatial effects in determining an individual's antibody profile. Finally, we reconstructed each individual's expected antibody profile over their lifetime and inferred an age-stratified relationship between probability of infection and HI titre. Our analyses show how multi-strain serological panels provide rich information on long term, epidemiological trends, within-host processes and immunity when analyzed using appropriate inference methods, and adds to our understanding of the life course epidemiology of influenza A/H3N2.
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Affiliation(s)
- James A. Hay
- Pandemic Sciences Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London
| | - Huachen Zhu
- Guangdong-Hong Kong Joint Laboratory of Emerging Infectious Diseases/MOE Joint Laboratory for International Collaboration in Virology and Emerging Infectious Diseases, Joint Institute of Virology (Shantou University/The University of Hong Kong), Shantou University, Shantou, China
- State Key Laboratory of Emerging Infectious Diseases / World Health Organization Influenza Reference Laboratory, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
- 5EKIH (Gewuzhikang) Pathogen Research Institute, Guangdong, China
| | | | - Kin On Kwok
- The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Stanley Ho Centre for Emerging Infectious Diseases, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Hong Kong Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Ruiyin Shen
- Guangzhou No.12 Hospital, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Adam Kucharski
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom
| | - Bingyi Yang
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Jonathan M. Read
- Centre for Health Informatics Computing and Statistics, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom
| | - Justin Lessler
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, United States
- Department of Epidemiology, UNC Gillings School of Global Public Health, Chapel Hill, United States
- UNC Carolina Population Center, Chapel Hill, United States
| | - Derek A. T. Cummings
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, United States
| | - Steven Riley
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London
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Principi N, Esposito S. Specific and Nonspecific Effects of Influenza Vaccines. Vaccines (Basel) 2024; 12:384. [PMID: 38675766 PMCID: PMC11054884 DOI: 10.3390/vaccines12040384] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2024] [Revised: 03/28/2024] [Accepted: 04/03/2024] [Indexed: 04/28/2024] Open
Abstract
With the introduction of the influenza vaccine in the official immunization schedule of most countries, several data regarding the efficacy, tolerability, and safety of influenza immunization were collected worldwide. Interestingly, together with the confirmation that influenza vaccines are effective in reducing the incidence of influenza virus infection and the incidence and severity of influenza disease, epidemiological data have indicated that influenza immunization could be useful for controlling antimicrobial resistance (AMR) development. Knowledge of the reliability of these findings seems essential for precise quantification of the clinical relevance of influenza immunization. If definitively confirmed, these findings can have a relevant impact on influenza vaccine development and use. Moreover, they can be used to convince even the most recalcitrant health authorities of the need to extend influenza immunization to the entire population. In this narrative review, present knowledge regarding these particular aspects of influenza immunization is discussed. Literature analysis showed that the specific effects of influenza immunization are great enough per se to recommend systematic annual immunization of younger children, old people, and all individuals with severe chronic underlying diseases. Moreover, influenza immunization can significantly contribute to limiting the emergence of antimicrobial resistance. The problem of the possible nonspecific effects of influenza vaccines remains unsolved. The definition of their role as inducers of trained immunity seems essential not only to evaluate how much they play a role in the prevention of infectious diseases but also to evaluate whether they can be used to prevent and treat clinical conditions in which chronic inflammation and autoimmunity play a fundamental pathogenetic role.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Susanna Esposito
- Pediatric Clinic, Department of Medicine and Surgery, University of Parma, 43126 Parma, Italy
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Cohen C, Kleynhans J, von Gottberg A, McMorrow ML, Wolter N, Bhiman JN, Moyes J, du Plessis M, Carrim M, Buys A, Martinson NA, Kahn K, Tollman S, Lebina L, Wafawanaka F, du Toit J, Gómez-Olivé FX, Dawood FS, Mkhencele T, Tempia S. Characteristics of infections with ancestral, Beta and Delta variants of SARS-CoV-2 in the PHIRST-C community cohort study, South Africa, 2020-2021. BMC Infect Dis 2024; 24:336. [PMID: 38515050 PMCID: PMC10956206 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-024-09209-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/16/2023] [Accepted: 03/08/2024] [Indexed: 03/23/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Data on the characteristics of individuals with mild and asymptomatic infections with different SARS-CoV-2 variants are limited. We therefore compared the characteristics of individuals infected with ancestral, Beta and Delta SARS-CoV-2 variants in South Africa. METHODS We conducted a prospective cohort study in a rural and an urban site during July 2020-August 2021. Mid-turbinate nasal swabs were collected twice-weekly from household members irrespective of symptoms and tested for SARS-CoV-2 using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR). Differences in demographic and clinical characteristics, shedding and cycle threshold (Ct) value of infection episodes by variant were evaluated using multinomial regression. Overall and age-specific incidence rates of infection were compared by variant. RESULTS We included 1200 individuals from 222 households and 648 rRT-PCR-confirmed infection episodes (66, 10% ancestral, 260, 40% Beta, 322, 50% Delta). Symptomatic proportion was similar for ancestral (7, 11%), Beta (44, 17%), and Delta (46, 14%) infections (p=0.4). After accounting for previous infection, peak incidence shifted to younger age groups in successive waves (40-59 years ancestral, 19-39 years Beta, 13-18 years Delta). On multivariable analysis, compared to ancestral, Beta infection was more common in individuals aged 5-12 years (vs 19-39)(adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.6, 95% confidence interval (CI)1.1-6.6) and PCR cycle threshold (Ct) value <30 (vs >35)(aOR 3.2, 95%CI 1.3-7.9), while Delta was more common in individuals aged <5 (aOR 6.7, 95%CI1.4-31.2) and 5-12 years (aOR 6.6 95%CI2.6-16.7)(vs 19-39) and Ct value <30 (aOR 4.5, 95%CI 1.3-15.5) and 30-35 (aOR 6.0, 95%CI 2.3-15.7)(vs >35). CONCLUSIONS Consecutive SARS-CoV-2 waves with Beta and Delta variants were associated with a shift to younger individuals. Beta and Delta infections were associated with higher peak viral loads, potentially increasing infectiousness.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cheryl Cohen
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa.
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
| | - Jackie Kleynhans
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Anne von Gottberg
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Meredith L McMorrow
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) COVID-19 Response, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Nicole Wolter
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Jinal N Bhiman
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Jocelyn Moyes
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Mignon du Plessis
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Maimuna Carrim
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Amelia Buys
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Neil A Martinson
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- DST/NRF Centre of Excellence for Biomedical Tuberculosis Research, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- Johns Hopkins University Center for TB Research, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Kathleen Kahn
- MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), Faculty of Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Stephen Tollman
- MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), Faculty of Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Limakatso Lebina
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- Africa Health Research Institute, Mtubatuba, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
| | - Floidy Wafawanaka
- MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), Faculty of Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Jacques du Toit
- MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), Faculty of Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Francesc Xavier Gómez-Olivé
- MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), Faculty of Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Fatimah S Dawood
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) COVID-19 Response, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Thulisa Mkhencele
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Stefano Tempia
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) COVID-19 Response, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
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10
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Dall’Amico L, Kleynhans J, Gauvin L, Tizzoni M, Ozella L, Makhasi M, Wolter N, Language B, Wagner RG, Cohen C, Tempia S, Cattuto C. Estimating household contact matrices structure from easily collectable metadata. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0296810. [PMID: 38483886 PMCID: PMC10939291 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0296810] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/31/2023] [Accepted: 12/18/2023] [Indexed: 03/17/2024] Open
Abstract
Contact matrices are a commonly adopted data representation, used to develop compartmental models for epidemic spreading, accounting for the contact heterogeneities across age groups. Their estimation, however, is generally time and effort consuming and model-driven strategies to quantify the contacts are often needed. In this article we focus on household contact matrices, describing the contacts among the members of a family and develop a parametric model to describe them. This model combines demographic and easily quantifiable survey-based data and is tested on high resolution proximity data collected in two sites in South Africa. Given its simplicity and interpretability, we expect our method to be easily applied to other contexts as well and we identify relevant questions that need to be addressed during the data collection procedure.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Jackie Kleynhans
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Laetitia Gauvin
- ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy
- Institute for Research on sustainable Development, UMR215 PRODIG, Aubervilliers, France
| | - Michele Tizzoni
- ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy
- Department of Sociology and Social Research, University of Trento, Trento, Italy
| | | | - Mvuyo Makhasi
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Nicole Wolter
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Pathology, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Brigitte Language
- Unit for Environmental Science and Management, Climatology Research Group, North-West University, Potchefstroom, South Africa
| | - Ryan G. Wagner
- MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), Agincourt, South Africa
| | - Cheryl Cohen
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Stefano Tempia
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Ciro Cattuto
- ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy
- Department of Informatics, University of Turin, Turin, Italy
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11
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Lingani M, Cissé A, Ilboudo AK, Yaméogo I, Tarnagada Z. Patterns of Non-influenza Respiratory Viruses Among Severe Acute Respiratory Infection Cases in Burkina Faso: A Surveillance Study. Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2024; 18:e13271. [PMID: 38501305 PMCID: PMC10949177 DOI: 10.1111/irv.13271] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2024] [Revised: 02/07/2024] [Accepted: 02/08/2024] [Indexed: 03/20/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Although influenza viruses cause only one-fifth of severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) in Burkina Faso, the other viral causes of SARI remain poorly investigated to inform clinical and preventive decision making. METHODS Between 2016 and 2019, we prospectively enrolled inpatients meeting the World Health Organization (WHO) case definition of SARI in Burkina Faso. Results of viral etiologies among inpatients tested negative for influenza using the Fast Track Diagnostics Respiratory Kits (FTD-33) were reported. RESULTS Of 1541 specimens tested, at least one respiratory virus was detected in 76.1% of the 1231 specimens negative for influenza virus. Human rhinoviruses (hRVs) were the most detected pathogens (476; 38.7%), followed by human adenoviruses (hAdV) (17.1%, 210/1231), human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV) (15.4%, 189/1231), enterovirus (EnV) (11.2%, 138/1231), human bocavirus (hBoV) (7.9%, 97/1231), parainfluenza 3 (hPIV3) (6.1%, 75/1231), human metapneumovirus (hMPV) (6.0%,74/1321), parainfluenza 4 (hPIV4) (4.1%, 51/1231), human coronavirus OC43 (hCoV-OC43) (3.4%, 42/1231), human coronavirus HKU1(hCoV-HKU1) (2.7%, 33/1231), human coronavirus NL63 (hCoV-NL63) (2.5%, 31/1231), parainfluenza 1 (hPIV1) (2.0%, 25/1231), parainfluenza 2 (hPIV2) (1.8%, 22/1231), human parechovirus (PeV) (1.1%, 14/1231), and human coronavirus 229E (hCoV-229E) (0.9%, 11/1231). Among SARI cases, infants aged 1-4 years were mostly affected (50.7%; 622/1231), followed by those <1 year of age (35.7%; 438/1231). Most detected pathogens had year-long circulation patterns, with seasonal peaks mainly observed during the cold and dry seasons. CONCLUSION Several non-influenza viruses are cause of SARI in Burkina Faso. The integration of the most common pathogens into the routine influenza surveillance system might be beneficial.
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Affiliation(s)
- Moussa Lingani
- Laboratoire National de Référence‐GrippesInstitut de Recherche en Sciences de la Santé (LNRG‐IRSS)OuagadougouBurkina Faso
- Unité de Recherche Clinique de NanoroInstitut de Recherche en Sciences de la Santé (IRSS‐URCN)NanoroBurkina Faso
| | - Assana Cissé
- Laboratoire National de Référence‐GrippesInstitut de Recherche en Sciences de la Santé (LNRG‐IRSS)OuagadougouBurkina Faso
- One Health Association Burkina FasoOuagadougouBurkina Faso
| | - Abdoul Kader Ilboudo
- Laboratoire National de Référence‐GrippesInstitut de Recherche en Sciences de la Santé (LNRG‐IRSS)OuagadougouBurkina Faso
- One Health Association Burkina FasoOuagadougouBurkina Faso
| | - Issaka Yaméogo
- One Health Association Burkina FasoOuagadougouBurkina Faso
- Service de surveillance épidémiologiqueMinistère de la santé et de l'Hygiène publiqueOuagadougouBurkina Faso
| | - Zekiba Tarnagada
- Laboratoire National de Référence‐GrippesInstitut de Recherche en Sciences de la Santé (LNRG‐IRSS)OuagadougouBurkina Faso
- One Health Association Burkina FasoOuagadougouBurkina Faso
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12
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de Jong SPJ, Felix Garza ZC, Gibson JC, van Leeuwen S, de Vries RP, Boons GJ, van Hoesel M, de Haan K, van Groeningen LE, Hulme KD, van Willigen HDG, Wynberg E, de Bree GJ, Matser A, Bakker M, van der Hoek L, Prins M, Kootstra NA, Eggink D, Nichols BE, Han AX, de Jong MD, Russell CA. Determinants of epidemic size and the impacts of lulls in seasonal influenza virus circulation. Nat Commun 2024; 15:591. [PMID: 38238318 PMCID: PMC10796432 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44668-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2022] [Accepted: 12/21/2023] [Indexed: 01/22/2024] Open
Abstract
During the COVID-19 pandemic, levels of seasonal influenza virus circulation were unprecedentedly low, leading to concerns that a lack of exposure to influenza viruses, combined with waning antibody titres, could result in larger and/or more severe post-pandemic seasonal influenza epidemics. However, in most countries the first post-pandemic influenza season was not unusually large and/or severe. Here, based on an analysis of historical influenza virus epidemic patterns from 2002 to 2019, we show that historic lulls in influenza virus circulation had relatively minor impacts on subsequent epidemic size and that epidemic size was more substantially impacted by season-specific effects unrelated to the magnitude of circulation in prior seasons. From measurements of antibody levels from serum samples collected each year from 2017 to 2021, we show that the rate of waning of antibody titres against influenza virus during the pandemic was smaller than assumed in predictive models. Taken together, these results partially explain why the re-emergence of seasonal influenza virus epidemics was less dramatic than anticipated and suggest that influenza virus epidemic dynamics are not currently amenable to multi-season prediction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Simon P J de Jong
- Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Zandra C Felix Garza
- Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Joseph C Gibson
- Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Sarah van Leeuwen
- Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Robert P de Vries
- Department of Chemical Biology and Drug Discovery, Utrecht Institute for Pharmaceutical Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Geert-Jan Boons
- Department of Chemical Biology and Drug Discovery, Utrecht Institute for Pharmaceutical Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
- Complex Carbohydrate Research Center, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
- Bijvoet Center for Biomolecular Research, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
- Department of Chemistry, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
| | - Marliek van Hoesel
- Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Karen de Haan
- Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Laura E van Groeningen
- Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Katina D Hulme
- Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Hugo D G van Willigen
- Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Elke Wynberg
- Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Public Health Service of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Godelieve J de Bree
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Amy Matser
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Public Health Service of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Margreet Bakker
- Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Lia van der Hoek
- Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Maria Prins
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Public Health Service of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Neeltje A Kootstra
- Department of Experimental Immunology, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Dirk Eggink
- Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
| | - Brooke E Nichols
- Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Alvin X Han
- Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Menno D de Jong
- Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Colin A Russell
- Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
- Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA.
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13
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Cohen C, Kleynhans J, Moyes J, McMorrow ML, Treurnicht FK, Hellferscee O, Wolter N, Martinson NA, Kahn K, Lebina L, Mothlaoleng K, Wafawanaka F, Gómez-Olivé FX, Mkhencele T, Mathunjwa A, Carrim M, Mathee A, Piketh S, Language B, von Gottberg A, Tempia S. Incidence and transmission of respiratory syncytial virus in urban and rural South Africa, 2017-2018. Nat Commun 2024; 15:116. [PMID: 38167333 PMCID: PMC10761814 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44275-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2023] [Accepted: 12/06/2023] [Indexed: 01/05/2024] Open
Abstract
Data on respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) incidence and household transmission are limited. To describe RSV incidence and transmission, we conducted a prospective cohort study in rural and urban communities in South Africa over two seasons during 2017-2018. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected twice-weekly for 10 months annually and tested for RSV using PCR. We tested 81,430 samples from 1,116 participants in 225 households (follow-up 90%). 32% (359/1116) of individuals had ≥1 RSV infection; 10% (37/359) had repeat infection during the same season, 33% (132/396) of infections were symptomatic, and 2% (9/396) sought medical care. Incidence was 47.2 infections/100 person-years and highest in children <5 years (78.3). Symptoms were commonest in individuals aged <12 and ≥65 years. Individuals 1-12 years accounted for 55% (134/242) of index cases. Household cumulative infection risk was 11%. On multivariable analysis, index cases with ≥2 symptoms and shedding duration >10 days were more likely to transmit; household contacts aged 1-4 years vs. ≥65 years were more likely to acquire infection. Within two South African communities, RSV attack rate was high, and most infections asymptomatic. Young children were more likely to introduce RSV into the home, and to be infected. Future studies should examine whether vaccines targeting children aged <12 years could reduce community transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cheryl Cohen
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa.
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
| | - Jackie Kleynhans
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Jocelyn Moyes
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Meredith L McMorrow
- Coronavirus and Other Respiratory Viruses Division (proposed), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
- Influenza Program, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Pretoria, South Africa
| | - Florette K Treurnicht
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Orienka Hellferscee
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Nicole Wolter
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Neil A Martinson
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, MRC Soweto Matlosana Collaborating Centre for HIV/AIDS and TB, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- DST/NRF Centre of Excellence for Biomedical Tuberculosis Research, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- Johns Hopkins University Center for TB Research, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Kathleen Kahn
- MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), Faculty of Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Limakatso Lebina
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, MRC Soweto Matlosana Collaborating Centre for HIV/AIDS and TB, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Katlego Mothlaoleng
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, MRC Soweto Matlosana Collaborating Centre for HIV/AIDS and TB, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Floidy Wafawanaka
- MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), Faculty of Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Francesc Xavier Gómez-Olivé
- MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), Faculty of Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Thulisa Mkhencele
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Azwifarwi Mathunjwa
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Maimuna Carrim
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Angela Mathee
- Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Stuart Piketh
- Unit for Environmental Science and Management, Climatology Research Group, North-West University, Potchefstroom, South Africa
| | - Brigitte Language
- Unit for Environmental Science and Management, Climatology Research Group, North-West University, Potchefstroom, South Africa
| | - Anne von Gottberg
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Stefano Tempia
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- Influenza Program, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Pretoria, South Africa
- MassGenics, Duluth, GA, USA
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14
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Goh M, Joy C, Gillespie AN, Soh QR, He F, Sung V. Asymptomatic viruses detectable in saliva in the first year of life: a narrative review. Pediatr Res 2024; 95:508-531. [PMID: 38135726 DOI: 10.1038/s41390-023-02952-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2023] [Revised: 11/15/2023] [Accepted: 11/20/2023] [Indexed: 12/24/2023]
Abstract
Viral infections are common in children. Many can be asymptomatic or have delayed health consequences. In view of increasing availability of point-of-care viral detection technologies, with possible application in newborn screening, this review aimed to (1) identify potentially asymptomatic viruses detectable in infants under one year old, via saliva/nasopharyngeal swab, and (2) describe associations between viruses and long-term health conditions. We systematically searched Embase(Ovid), Medline(Ovid) and PubMed, then further searched the literature in a tiered approach. From the 143 articles included, 28 potentially asymptomatic viruses were identified. Our second search revealed associations with a range of delayed health conditions, with most related to the severity of initial symptoms. Many respiratory viruses were linked with development of recurrent wheeze or asthma. Of note, some potentially asymptomatic viruses are linked with later non-communicable diseases: adenovirus serotype 36 and obesity, Enterovirus-A71 associated Hand, Foot, Mouth Disease and Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder, Ebstein Barr Virus (EBV) and malignancy, EBV and multiple sclerosis, HHV-6 and epilepsy, HBoV-1 and lung fibrosis and Norovirus and functional gastrointestinal disorders. Our review identified many potentially asymptomatic viruses, detectable in early life with potential delayed health consequences, that could be important to screen for in the future using rapid point-of-care viral detection methods. IMPACT: Novel point-of-care viral detection technologies enable rapid detection of viruses, both old and emerging. In view of increasing capability to screen for viruses, this is the first review to explore which potentially asymptomatic viruses, that are detectable using saliva and/or nasopharyngeal swabs in infants less than one year of age, are associated with delayed adverse health conditions. Further research into detecting such viruses in early life and their delayed health outcomes may pave new ways to prevent non-communicable diseases in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Melody Goh
- Faculty of Medicine, Nursing and Health Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia
- Prevention Innovation, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Parkville, VIC, Australia
| | - Charissa Joy
- Prevention Innovation, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Parkville, VIC, Australia
- Monash Children's Hospital Clayton, Clayton, VIC, Australia
| | - Alanna N Gillespie
- Prevention Innovation, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Parkville, VIC, Australia
- Centre for Community Child Health, The Royal Children's Hospital, Parkville, VIC, Australia
| | - Qi Rui Soh
- Prevention Innovation, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Parkville, VIC, Australia
- The University of Melbourne, Faculty of Medicine Dentistry and Health Sciences Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Fan He
- Prevention Innovation, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Parkville, VIC, Australia
- John Richards Centre for Rural Ageing Research, La Trobe University, Wodonga, VIC, Australia
| | - Valerie Sung
- Prevention Innovation, Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Parkville, VIC, Australia.
- Monash Children's Hospital Clayton, Clayton, VIC, Australia.
- Department of Paediatrics, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia.
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15
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Hwang JH, You YS, Yeom SW, Lee MG, Lee JH, Kim MG, Kim JS. Influenza viral infection is a risk factor for severe illness in COVID-19 patients: a nationwide population-based cohort study. Emerg Microbes Infect 2023; 12:2164215. [PMID: 36580041 PMCID: PMC9858545 DOI: 10.1080/22221751.2022.2164215] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
In order to prepare for the twindemic of influenza and SARS-CoV-2 infection, we investigated the association between influenza infection and subsequent severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection. A population-based nationwide cohort study was performed using data from the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) in the Republic of Korea. This study included 274,126 individuals who underwent SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing between 20 January 2020 and 1 October 2020. Among these patients, 28,338 tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, and 4,003 of these individuals had a history of influenza. The control group was selected through 1:1 propensity score matching. In the group of 4,003 COVID-19-positive individuals with no history of influenza, 192 (4.8%) experienced severe illness from COVID-19 infection. In the group of 4,003 COVID-19-positive individuals with a history of influenza, 260 (6.5%) had severe illness from COVID-19, and the overall adjusted odds ratio (aOR) was 1.29 (95% confidence interval 1.04-1.59). Among the 4,003 COVID-19-positive individuals with a history of influenza, severe COVID-19 infection was experienced by 143 of 1,760 (8.1%) with an influenza history within 1 year before the onset of COVID-19, 48 of 1,129 (4.3%) between 1 and 2 years, and 69 of 1,114 (6.2%) between 2 and 3 years before COVID-19 onset, and the aORs were 1.54 (1.20-1.98), 1.19 (0.84-1.70), and 1.00 (0.73-1.37), respectively. In conclusion, individuals who had an influenza infection less than 1 year before COVID-19 infection were at an increased risk of experiencing severe illness from the SARS-CoV-2 infection. To control the public health burden, it is essential that effective public health control measures, which include influenza vaccination, hand washing, cough etiquette, and mask use are in place.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jeong-Hwan Hwang
- Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Jeonbuk National University Medical School, Jeonju, South Korea,Research Institute of Clinical Medicine of Jeonbuk National University-Biomedical Research Institute of Jeonbuk National University Hospital, Jeonju, South Korea
| | - Yeon Seok You
- Department of Medical Informatics, Jeonbuk National University, Jeonju, South Korea,Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Jeonbuk National University Medical School, Jeonju, South Korea
| | - Sang Woo Yeom
- Department of Medical Informatics, Jeonbuk National University, Jeonju, South Korea
| | - Min Gyu Lee
- Department of Medical Informatics, Jeonbuk National University, Jeonju, South Korea
| | - Jong-hwan Lee
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Jeonbuk National University Medical School, Jeonju, South Korea
| | - Min Gul Kim
- Research Institute of Clinical Medicine of Jeonbuk National University-Biomedical Research Institute of Jeonbuk National University Hospital, Jeonju, South Korea,Department of Pharmacology, Jeonbuk National University Medical School, Jeonju, South Korea, Min Gul Kim Department of Pharmacology, Jeonbuk National University Medical School, Jeonju54907, South Korea
| | - Jong Seung Kim
- Research Institute of Clinical Medicine of Jeonbuk National University-Biomedical Research Institute of Jeonbuk National University Hospital, Jeonju, South Korea,Department of Medical Informatics, Jeonbuk National University, Jeonju, South Korea,Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Jeonbuk National University Medical School, Jeonju, South Korea,Jong Seung Kim Department of Medical Informatics, Jeonbuk National University, Jeonju54907, South Korea; Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Jeonbuk National University Medical School, Jeonju54907, South Korea
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16
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Waterlow NR, Kleynhans J, Wolter N, Tempia S, Eggo RM, Hellferscee O, Lebina L, Martinson N, Wagner RG, Moyes J, von Gottberg A, Cohen C, Flasche S. Transient increased risk of influenza infection following RSV infection in South Africa: findings from the PHIRST study, South Africa, 2016-2018. BMC Med 2023; 21:441. [PMID: 37968614 PMCID: PMC10647169 DOI: 10.1186/s12916-023-03100-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/06/2023] [Accepted: 10/02/2023] [Indexed: 11/17/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Large-scale prevention of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection may have ecological consequences for co-circulating pathogens, including influenza. We assessed if and for how long RSV infection alters the risk for subsequent influenza infection. METHODS We analysed a prospective longitudinal cohort study conducted in South Africa between 2016 and 2018. For participating households, nasopharyngeal samples were taken twice weekly, irrespective of symptoms, across three respiratory virus seasons, and real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used to identify infection with RSV and/or influenza. We fitted an individual-level hidden Markov transmission model in order to estimate RSV and influenza infection rates and their interdependence. RESULTS Of a total of 122,113 samples collected, 1265 (1.0%) were positive for influenza and 1002 (0.8%) positive for RSV, with 15 (0.01%) samples from 12 individuals positive for both influenza and RSV. We observed a 2.25-fold higher incidence of co-infection than expected if assuming infections were unrelated. We estimated that infection with influenza is 2.13 (95% CI 0.97-4.69) times more likely when already infected with, and for a week following, RSV infection, adjusted for age. This equates to 1.4% of influenza infections that may be attributable to RSV in this population. Due to the local seasonality (RSV season precedes the influenza season), we were unable to estimate changes in RSV infection risk following influenza infection. CONCLUSIONS We find no evidence to suggest that RSV was associated with a subsequent reduced risk of influenza infection. Instead, we observed an increased risk for influenza infection for a short period after infection. However, the impact on population-level transmission dynamics of this individual-level synergistic effect was not measurable in this setting.
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Affiliation(s)
- Naomi R Waterlow
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease, School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
| | - Jackie Kleynhans
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Nicole Wolter
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Medicine, University of the Witwatersand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Stefano Tempia
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Rosalind M Eggo
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease, School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Orienka Hellferscee
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Medicine, University of the Witwatersand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Limakatso Lebina
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- Africa Health Research Institute, Durban, South Africa
| | - Neil Martinson
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- John Hopkins University Center for TB Research, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Ryan G Wagner
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, South African Medical Research Council/Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Jocelyn Moyes
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Anne von Gottberg
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Medicine, University of the Witwatersand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Cheryl Cohen
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Stefan Flasche
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease, School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
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17
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Shaikh N, Swali P, Houben RMGJ. Asymptomatic but infectious - The silent driver of pathogen transmission. A pragmatic review. Epidemics 2023; 44:100704. [PMID: 37413887 PMCID: PMC10260263 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100704] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/22/2022] [Revised: 05/29/2023] [Accepted: 06/12/2023] [Indexed: 07/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Throughout 2020, COVID-19 interventions prioritised symptomatic individuals despite growing evidence of pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission. From the pandemic we have learned that global health is slow to quantify asymptomatic disease transmission and slow to implement relevant interventions. While asymptomatic infectious periods exist for nearly all pathogens, it is frequently ignored during case finding, and there are limited research efforts to understand its potential to drive small scale outbreaks, epidemics and pandemics. We conducted a pragmatic review on 15 key pathogens including SARS-CoV-2 and Ebola to demonstrate substantial variation in terminology around asymptomatic infectious individuals, and varying proportions of asymptomatic amongst prevalent infectious cases (0-99 %) and their contribution to transmission (0-96 %). While no pattern was discernible by pathogen type (virus, bacteria, parasite) or mode of transmission (direct, indirect or mixed), there are multiple lessons to learn from previous and current control programmes. As found during the COVID-19 pandemic, overlooking asymptomatic infectious individuals can impede disease control. Improving our understanding of how asymptomatic individuals can drive epidemics can strengthen our efforts to control current pathogens, and improve our preparedness for when the next new pathogen emerges..
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Affiliation(s)
- Nabila Shaikh
- TB Modelling Group, TB Centre, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom; Sanofi Pasteur, 410 Thames Valley Park Drive, Reading RG6 1PT, United Kingdom.
| | - Pooja Swali
- Ancient Genomics Laboratory, The Francis Crick Institute, 1 Midland Road, London NW11AT, United Kingdom
| | - Rein M G J Houben
- TB Modelling Group, TB Centre, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom
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18
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Chow EJ, Lynch JB, Zerr DM, Riedo FX, Fairchok M, Pergam SA, Baliga CS, Pauk J, Lewis J, Duchin JS. Lessons From the COVID-19 Pandemic: Updating Our Approach to Masking in Health Care Facilities. Ann Intern Med 2023; 176:1266-1268. [PMID: 37603866 PMCID: PMC10620952 DOI: 10.7326/m23-1230] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/23/2023] Open
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has upended societal norms and changed the way the health risks associated with respiratory viral infections are viewed. In this commentary, the authors advocate for mindfulness of continuing areas of uncertainty along with integration of the lessons learned into hospital-based practices to prevent harm to vulnerable patients rather than reverting to suboptimal prepandemic behaviors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eric J Chow
- Public Health - Seattle & King County; Division of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Washington; and Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington (E.J.C.)
| | - John B Lynch
- Division of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington (J.B.L.)
| | - Danielle M Zerr
- Department of Pediatrics, University of Washington, and Division of Infectious Diseases, Seattle Children's Hospital, Seattle, Washington (D.M.Z.)
| | | | - Mary Fairchok
- Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Mary Bridge Children's Hospital, Multicare Health System, Tacoma, Washington (M.F.)
| | - Steven A Pergam
- Vaccine and Infectious Diseases, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington (S.A.P.)
| | - Christopher S Baliga
- Section of Infectious Diseases, Virginia Mason Medical Center, Seattle, Washington (C.S.B.)
| | - John Pauk
- Infectious Disease, Swedish Medical Center, Seattle, Washington (J.P.)
| | - James Lewis
- Division of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, and Snohomish County Health Department, Everett, Washington (J.L.)
| | - Jeffrey S Duchin
- Public Health - Seattle & King County, and Division of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington (J.S.D.)
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19
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Tsang TK, Wang C, Fang VJ, Perera RAPM, So HC, Ip DKM, Leung GM, Peiris JSM, Cauchemez S, Cowling BJ. Reconstructing household transmission dynamics to estimate the infectiousness of asymptomatic influenza virus infections. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2023; 120:e2304750120. [PMID: 37549267 PMCID: PMC10436695 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2304750120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2023] [Accepted: 07/15/2023] [Indexed: 08/09/2023] Open
Abstract
There has long been controversy over the potential for asymptomatic cases of the influenza virus to have the capacity for onward transmission, but recognition of asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 stimulates further research into this topic. Here, we develop a Bayesian methodology to analyze detailed data from a large cohort of 727 households and 2515 individuals in the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) outbreak in Hong Kong to characterize household transmission dynamics and to estimate the relative infectiousness of asymptomatic versus symptomatic influenza cases. The posterior probability that asymptomatic cases [36% of cases; 95% credible interval (CrI): 32%, 40%] are less infectious than symptomatic cases is 0.82, with estimated relative infectiousness 0.57 (95% CrI: 0.11, 1.54). More data are required to strengthen our understanding of the contribution of asymptomatic cases to the spread of influenza.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tim K. Tsang
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, New Territories, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Can Wang
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Vicky J. Fang
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Ranawaka A. P. M. Perera
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- HKU-Pasteur Research Pole, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Hau Chi So
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Dennis K. M. Ip
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Gabriel M. Leung
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, New Territories, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - J. S. Malik Peiris
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Simon Cauchemez
- Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, UMR2000, CNRS, 75015Paris, France
| | - Benjamin J. Cowling
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, New Territories, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
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20
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Ortiz JR, Bernstein DI, Hoft DF, Woods CW, McClain MT, Frey SE, Brady RC, Bryant C, Wegel A, Frenck RW, Walter EB, Abate G, Williams SR, Atmar RL, Keitel WA, Rouphael N, Memoli MJ, Makhene MK, Roberts PC, Neuzil KM. A Multicenter, Controlled Human Infection Study of Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in Healthy Adults. J Infect Dis 2023; 228:287-298. [PMID: 36702771 PMCID: PMC10420403 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiad021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2022] [Revised: 01/18/2023] [Accepted: 01/23/2023] [Indexed: 01/28/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND We evaluated the associations between baseline influenza virus-specific hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) and microneutralization (MN) titers and subsequent symptomatic influenza virus infection in a controlled human infection study. METHODS We inoculated unvaccinated healthy adults aged 18-49 years with an influenza A/California/04/2009/H1N1pdm-like virus (NCT04044352). We collected serial safety labs, serum for HAI and MN, and nasopharyngeal swabs for reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing. Analyses used the putative seroprotective titer of ≥40 for HAI and MN. The primary clinical outcome was mild-to-moderate influenza disease (MMID), defined as ≥1 postchallenge positive qualitative RT-PCR test with a qualifying symptom/clinical finding. RESULTS Of 76 participants given influenza virus challenge, 54 (71.1%) experienced MMID. Clinical illness was generally very mild. MMID attack rates among participants with baseline titers ≥40 by HAI and MN were 64.9% and 67.9%, respectively, while MMID attack rates among participants with baseline titers <40 by HAI and MN were 76.9% and 78.3%, respectively. The estimated odds of developing MMID decreased by 19% (odds ratio, 0.81 [95% confidence interval, .62-1.06]; P = .126) for every 2-fold increase in baseline HAI. There were no significant adverse events. CONCLUSIONS We achieved a 71.1% attack rate of MMID. High baseline HAI and MN were associated with protection from illness. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT04044352.
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Affiliation(s)
- Justin R Ortiz
- Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore
| | - David I Bernstein
- Cincinnati Children’s Hospital Medical Center, University of Cincinnati, Ohio; Departments of
| | - Daniel F Hoft
- Internal Medicine and
- Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, Division of Infectious Diseases, Allergy and Immunology and Center for Vaccine Development, Saint Louis University School of Medicine, Missouri
| | - Christopher W Woods
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina
| | - Micah T McClain
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina
| | | | - Rebecca C Brady
- Cincinnati Children’s Hospital Medical Center, University of Cincinnati, Ohio; Departments of
| | - Christopher Bryant
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Therapeutic Research Unit, The Emmes Company, Rockville, Maryland
| | - Ashley Wegel
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Therapeutic Research Unit, The Emmes Company, Rockville, Maryland
| | - Robert W Frenck
- Cincinnati Children’s Hospital Medical Center, University of Cincinnati, Ohio; Departments of
| | - Emmanuel B Walter
- Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, North Carolina
| | | | - Sarah R Williams
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore
| | - Robert L Atmar
- Section of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas
| | - Wendy A Keitel
- Departments of Molecular Virology & Microbiology and Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas
| | - Nadine Rouphael
- Hope Clinic of the Emory Vaccine Center, Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, School of Medicine, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia
| | | | - Mamodikoe K Makhene
- Division of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Bethesda, Maryland
| | - Paul C Roberts
- Division of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Bethesda, Maryland
| | - Kathleen M Neuzil
- Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore
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21
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Bannick MS, Gao F, Brown ER, Janes HE. Retrospective, Observational Studies for Estimating Vaccine Effects on the Secondary Attack Rate of SARS-CoV-2. Am J Epidemiol 2023; 192:1016-1028. [PMID: 36883907 PMCID: PMC10505422 DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwad046] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2022] [Revised: 11/21/2022] [Accepted: 02/23/2023] [Indexed: 03/09/2023] Open
Abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines are highly efficacious at preventing symptomatic infection, severe disease, and death. Most of the evidence that COVID-19 vaccines also reduce transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is based on retrospective, observational studies. Specifically, an increasing number of studies are evaluating vaccine effectiveness against the secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 using data available in existing health-care databases or contact-tracing databases. Since these types of databases were designed for clinical diagnosis or management of COVID-19, they are limited in their ability to provide accurate information on infection, infection timing, and transmission events. We highlight challenges with using existing databases to identify transmission units and confirm potential SARS-CoV-2 transmission events. We discuss the impact of common diagnostic testing strategies, including event-prompted and infrequent testing, and illustrate their potential biases in estimating vaccine effectiveness against the secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2. We articulate the need for prospective observational studies of vaccine effectiveness against the SARS-CoV-2 secondary attack rate, and we provide design and reporting considerations for studies using retrospective databases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marlena S Bannick
- Correspondence to Marlena Bannick, Department of Biostatistics, Hans Rosling Center for Population Health, Box 357232, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 (e-mail: )
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22
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Morris SE, Grohskopf LA, Ferdinands JM, Reed C, Biggerstaff M. Evaluating Potential Impacts of a Preferential Vaccine Recommendation for Adults 65 Years of Age and Older on US Influenza Burden. Epidemiology 2023; 34:345-352. [PMID: 36807266 PMCID: PMC10069750 DOI: 10.1097/ede.0000000000001603] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/14/2022] [Accepted: 02/08/2023] [Indexed: 02/22/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND High-dose, adjuvanted, and recombinant influenza vaccines may offer improved effectiveness among older adults compared with standard-dose, unadjuvanted, inactivated vaccines. However, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) only recently recommended preferential use of these "higher-dose or adjuvanted" vaccines. One concern was that individuals might delay or decline vaccination if a preferred vaccine is not readily available. METHODS We mathematically model how a recommendation for preferential use of higher-dose or adjuvanted vaccines in adults ≥65 years might impact influenza burden in the United States during exemplar "high-" and "low-"severity seasons. We assume higher-dose or adjuvanted vaccines are more effective than standard vaccines and that such a recommendation would increase uptake of the former but could cause (i) delays in administration of additional higher-dose or adjuvanted vaccines relative to standard vaccines and/or (ii) reductions in overall coverage if individuals only offered standard vaccines forego vaccination. RESULTS In a best-case scenario, assuming no delay or coverage reduction, a new recommendation could decrease hospitalizations and deaths in adults ≥65 years by 0%-4% compared with current uptake. However, intermediate and worst-case scenarios, with assumed delays of 3 or 6 weeks and/or 10% or 20% reductions in coverage, included projections in which hospitalizations and deaths increased by over 7%. CONCLUSIONS We estimate that increased use of higher-dose or adjuvanted vaccines could decrease influenza burden in adults ≥65 in the United States provided there is timely and adequate access to these vaccines, and that standard vaccines are administered when they are unavailable.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sinead E. Morris
- From the Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA
| | - Lisa A. Grohskopf
- From the Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA
| | - Jill M. Ferdinands
- From the Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA
| | - Carrie Reed
- From the Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA
| | - Matthew Biggerstaff
- From the Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA
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23
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Hood N, Flannery B, Gaglani M, Beeram M, Wernli K, Jackson ML, Martin ET, Monto AS, Zimmerman R, Raviotta J, Belongia EA, McLean HQ, Kim S, Patel MM, Chung JR. Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Among Children: 2011-2020. Pediatrics 2023; 151:e2022059922. [PMID: 36960655 PMCID: PMC10071433 DOI: 10.1542/peds.2022-059922] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 01/04/2023] [Indexed: 03/25/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Infants and children are at increased risk of severe influenza virus infection and its complications. Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) varies by age, influenza season, and influenza virus type/subtype. This study's objective was to examine the effectiveness of inactivated influenza vaccine against outpatient influenza illness in the pediatric population over 9 influenza seasons after the 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic. METHODS During the 2011-2012 through the 2019-2020 influenza seasons at outpatient clinics at 5 sites of the US Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network, children aged 6 months to 17 years with an acute respiratory illness were tested for influenza using real-time, reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated using a test-negative design. RESULTS Among 24 148 enrolled children, 28% overall tested positive for influenza, 3017 tested positive for influenza A(H3N2), 1459 for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, and 2178 for influenza B. Among all enrollees, 39% overall were vaccinated, with 29% of influenza cases and 43% of influenza-negative controls vaccinated. Across all influenza seasons, the pooled VE for any influenza was 46% (95% confidence interval, 43-50). Overall and by type/subtype, VE against influenza illness was highest among children in the 6- to 59-month age group compared with older pediatric age groups. VE was lowest for influenza A(H3N2) virus infection. CONCLUSIONS Analysis of multiple seasons suggested substantial benefit against outpatient illness. Investigation of host-specific or virus-related mechanisms that may result in differences by age and virus type/subtype may help further efforts to promote increased vaccination coverage and other influenza-related preventative measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicole Hood
- Influenza Division, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Brendan Flannery
- Influenza Division, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Manjusha Gaglani
- Texas A&M University Health Science Center College of Medicine, Temple, Texas
- Baylor Scott & White Health Research Institute, Temple, Texas
| | - Madhava Beeram
- Texas A&M University Health Science Center College of Medicine, Temple, Texas
- Baylor Scott & White Health Research Institute, Temple, Texas
| | - Karen Wernli
- Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Seattle, Washington
| | - Michael L. Jackson
- Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Seattle, Washington
| | - Emily T. Martin
- School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan
| | - Arnold S. Monto
- School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan
| | - Richard Zimmerman
- School of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
| | - Jonathan Raviotta
- School of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
| | | | | | - Sara Kim
- Influenza Division, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Manish M. Patel
- Influenza Division, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Jessie R. Chung
- Influenza Division, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia
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24
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Giubilini A, Savulescu J, Pugh J, Wilkinson D. Vaccine mandates for healthcare workers beyond COVID-19. JOURNAL OF MEDICAL ETHICS 2023; 49:211-220. [PMID: 35636917 PMCID: PMC9985724 DOI: 10.1136/medethics-2022-108229] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2022] [Accepted: 04/12/2022] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
We provide ethical criteria to establish when vaccine mandates for healthcare workers are ethically justifiable. The relevant criteria are the utility of the vaccine for healthcare workers, the utility for patients (both in terms of prevention of transmission of infection and reduction in staff shortage), and the existence of less restrictive alternatives that can achieve comparable benefits. Healthcare workers have professional obligations to promote the interests of patients that entail exposure to greater risks or infringement of autonomy than ordinary members of the public. Thus, we argue that when vaccine mandates are justified on the basis of these criteria, they are not unfairly discriminatory and the level of coercion they involve is ethically acceptable-and indeed comparable to that already accepted in healthcare employment contracts. Such mandates might be justified even when general population mandates are not. Our conclusion is that, given current evidence, those ethical criteria justify mandates for influenza vaccination, but not COVID-19 vaccination, for healthcare workers. We extend our arguments to other vaccines.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alberto Giubilini
- Oxford Uehiro Centre for Practical Ethics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Wellcome Centre for Ethics and Humanities, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Julian Savulescu
- Oxford Uehiro Centre for Practical Ethics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Wellcome Centre for Ethics and Humanities, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Jonathan Pugh
- Oxford Uehiro Centre for Practical Ethics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Dominic Wilkinson
- Oxford Uehiro Centre for Practical Ethics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Newborn Care, John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford, UK
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25
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Chow EJ, Uyeki TM, Chu HY. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on community respiratory virus activity. Nat Rev Microbiol 2023; 21:195-210. [PMID: 36253478 PMCID: PMC9574826 DOI: 10.1038/s41579-022-00807-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 89] [Impact Index Per Article: 89.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 09/13/2022] [Indexed: 01/14/2023]
Abstract
The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) caused substantial global morbidity and deaths, leading governments to turn to non-pharmaceutical interventions to slow down the spread of infection and lessen the burden on health care systems. These policies have evolved over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, including after the availability of COVID-19 vaccines, with regional and country-level differences in their ongoing use. The COVID-19 pandemic has been associated with changes in respiratory virus infections worldwide, which have differed between virus types. Reductions in respiratory virus infections, including by influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus, were most notable at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and continued in varying degrees through subsequent waves of SARS-CoV-2 infections. The decreases in community infection burden have resulted in reduced hospitalizations and deaths associated with non-SARS-CoV-2 respiratory infections. Respiratory virus evolution relies on the maintaining of a diverse genetic pool, but evidence of genetic bottlenecking brought on by case reduction during the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in reduced genetic diversity of some respiratory viruses, including influenza virus. By describing the differences in these changes between viral species across different geographies over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, we may better understand the complex factors involved in community co-circulation of respiratory viruses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eric J Chow
- Division of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Timothy M Uyeki
- Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Helen Y Chu
- Division of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
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26
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Hoy G, Kuan G, López R, Sánchez N, López B, Ojeda S, Maier H, Patel M, Wraith S, Meyers A, Campredon L, Balmaseda A, Gordon A. The Spectrum of Influenza in Children. Clin Infect Dis 2023; 76:e1012-e1020. [PMID: 36069178 PMCID: PMC9907523 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciac734] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2022] [Revised: 08/30/2022] [Accepted: 09/01/2022] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Children constitute an important component of the influenza burden and community transmission, but the frequency of asymptomatic infection and post-influenza sequelae at the community level is poorly understood. METHODS Two community-based prospective cohort studies (2011-2020, 2017-2020) and 1 case-ascertained study (2012-2017) were conducted in Managua, Nicaragua. Non-immunocompromised children aged 0-14 years with ≥1 influenza infections, determined by polymerase chain reaction and hemagglutination inhibition assay, were included. RESULTS A total of 1272 influenza infections occurred in the household-based portion of the study. Influenza infection was asymptomatic in 84 (6.6%) infections, and the asymptomatic fraction increased with age (1.7%, 3.5%, and 9.1% for ages 0-1, 2-4, and 5-14, respectively; P < .001). Of asymptomatic children, 43 (51.2%) shed virus, compared to 1099 (92.5%) symptomatic children (P < .001). Also, 2140 cases of influenza occurred in the primary care portion of the study. Sequelae of influenza were rare, with the most common being pneumonia (52, 2.4%) and acute otitis media (71, 3.3%). A/H1N1 had higher age-adjusted odds of acute otitis media (odds ratio [OR] 1.99, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.14-3.48; P = .015) and hospitalization (OR 3.73, 95% CI: 1.68-8.67; P = .002) than A/H3N2. B/Victoria had higher age-adjusted odds of pneumonia (OR 10.99, 95% CI: 1.34-90.28; P = .026) than B/Yamagata. CONCLUSIONS Asymptomatic influenza infection is much less common in children than adults, although viral shedding still occurs in asymptomatic children. Post-influenza sequelae are rare in children in the community setting, and virus strain may be important in understanding the risk of sequelae.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gregory Hoy
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
| | - Guillermina Kuan
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
- Centro de Salud Sócrates Flores Vivas, Ministry of Health, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Roger López
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
- Laboratorio Nacional de Virología, Centro Nacional de Diagnóstico y Referencia, Ministry of Health, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Nery Sánchez
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Brenda López
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Sergio Ojeda
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
- Centro de Salud Sócrates Flores Vivas, Ministry of Health, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Hannah Maier
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
| | - Mayuri Patel
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
| | - Steph Wraith
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
| | - Alyssa Meyers
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
| | - Lora Campredon
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
| | - Angel Balmaseda
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
- Laboratorio Nacional de Virología, Centro Nacional de Diagnóstico y Referencia, Ministry of Health, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Aubree Gordon
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
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Carrim M, Tempia S, Thindwa D, Martinson NA, Kahn K, Flasche S, Hellferscee O, Treurnicht FK, McMorrow ML, Moyes J, Mkhencele T, Mathunjwa A, Kleynhans J, Lebina L, Mothlaoleng K, Wafawanaka F, Gómez-Olivé FX, Cohen C, von Gottberg A, Wolter N. Unmasking Pneumococcal Carriage in a High Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Prevalence Population in two Community Cohorts in South Africa, 2016-2018: The PHIRST Study. Clin Infect Dis 2023; 76:e710-e717. [PMID: 35717655 PMCID: PMC10169447 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciac499] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/09/2022] [Revised: 06/09/2022] [Accepted: 06/14/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Longitudinal pneumococcus colonization data in high human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence settings following pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction are limited. METHODS In 327 randomly selected households, 1684 individuals were enrolled and followed-up for 6 to 10 months during 2016 through 2018 from 2 communities. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected twice weekly and tested for pneumococcus using quantitative lytA real-time polymerase chain reaction. A Markov model was fitted to the data to define the start and end of an episode of colonization. We assessed factors associated with colonization using logistic regression. RESULTS During the study period, 98% (1655/1684) of participants were colonized with pneumococcus at least once. Younger age (<5 years: adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 14.1; 95% confidence [CI], 1.8-111.3, and 5-24 years: aOR, 4.8, 95% CI, 1.9-11.9, compared with 25-44 years) and HIV infection (aOR, 10.1; 95% CI, 1.3-77.1) were associated with increased odds of colonization. Children aged <5 years had fewer colonization episodes (median, 9) than individuals ≥5 years (median, 18; P < .001) but had a longer episode duration (<5 years: 35.5 days; interquartile range, 17-88) vs. ≥5 years: 5.5 days (4-12). High pneumococcal loads were associated with age (<1 year: aOR 25.4; 95% CI, 7.4-87.6; 1-4 years: aOR 13.5, 95% CI 8.3-22.9; 5-14 years: aOR 3.1, 95% CI, 2.1-4.4 vs. 45-65 year old patients) and HIV infection (aOR 1.7; 95% CI 1.2-2.4). CONCLUSIONS We observed high levels of pneumococcus colonization across all age groups. Children and people with HIV were more likely to be colonized and had higher pneumococcal loads. Carriage duration decreased with age highlighting that children remain important in pneumococcal transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maimuna Carrim
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Stefano Tempia
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
- Influenza Program, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Pretoria, South Africa
- MassGenics, Duluth, Georgia, USA
| | - Deus Thindwa
- Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Malawi Liverpool Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Programme, Blantyre, Malawi
| | - Neil A Martinson
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, MRC Soweto Matlosana Collaborating Centre for HIV/AIDS and TB, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- DST/NRF Centre of Excellence for Biomedical Tuberculosis Research, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- Johns Hopkins University Center for TB Research, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Kathleen Kahn
- MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), Faculty of Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Stefan Flasche
- Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Orienka Hellferscee
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Florette K Treurnicht
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- Department of Virology, National Health Laboratory Service, Charlotte Maxeke Johannesburg Academic Hospital, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Meredith L McMorrow
- Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
- Influenza Program, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Pretoria, South Africa
| | - Jocelyn Moyes
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Thulisa Mkhencele
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Azwifarwi Mathunjwa
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Jackie Kleynhans
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Limakatso Lebina
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, MRC Soweto Matlosana Collaborating Centre for HIV/AIDS and TB, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
| | - Katlego Mothlaoleng
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, MRC Soweto Matlosana Collaborating Centre for HIV/AIDS and TB, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Floidy Wafawanaka
- DST/NRF Centre of Excellence for Biomedical Tuberculosis Research, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Francesc Xavier Gómez-Olivé
- DST/NRF Centre of Excellence for Biomedical Tuberculosis Research, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Cheryl Cohen
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Anne von Gottberg
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Nicole Wolter
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
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Moosa F, Tempia S, Kleynhans J, McMorrow M, Moyes J, du Plessis M, Carrim M, Treurnicht FK, Helferscee O, Mkhencele T, Mathunjwa A, Martinson NA, Kahn K, Lebina L, Wafawanaka F, Cohen C, von Gottberg A, Wolter N. Incidence and Transmission Dynamics of Bordetella pertussis Infection in Rural and Urban Communities, South Africa, 2016‒2018. Emerg Infect Dis 2023; 29:294-303. [PMID: 36692337 PMCID: PMC9881781 DOI: 10.3201/eid2902.221125] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/25/2023] Open
Abstract
We conducted 3 prospective cohort studies (2016-2018), enrolling persons from 2 communities in South Africa. Nasopharyngeal swab specimens were collected twice a week from participants. Factors associated with Bordetella pertussis incidence, episode duration, and household transmission were determined by using Poisson regression, Weibull accelerated time-failure, and logistic regression hierarchical models, respectively. Among 1,684 participants, 118 episodes of infection were detected in 107 participants (incidence 0.21, 95% CI 0.17-0.25 infections/100 person-weeks). Children <5 years of age who had incomplete vaccination were more likely to have pertussis infection. Episode duration was longer for participants who had higher bacterial loads. Transmission was more likely to occur from male index case-patients and persons who had >7 days infection duration. In both communities, there was high incidence of B. pertussis infection and most cases were colonized.
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Chen L, Levine MZ, Zhou S, Bai T, Pang Y, Bao L, Tan Y, Cui P, Zhang R, Millman AJ, Greene CM, Zhang Z, Wang Y, Zhang J. Mild and asymptomatic influenza B virus infection among unvaccinated pregnant persons: Implication for effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical intervention and vaccination to prevent influenza. Vaccine 2023; 41:694-701. [PMID: 36526503 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.11.055] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/10/2022] [Revised: 10/13/2022] [Accepted: 11/21/2022] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND We estimated symptomatic and asymptomatic influenza infection frequency in community-dwelling unvaccinated pregnant persons to inform risk communication. METHODS We collected residue sera from multiple antenatal-care blood draws during October 2016-April 2017. We determined influenza infection as seroconversion with ≥ 4-fold rise in antibody titers between any two serum samples by improved hemagglutinin-inhibition assay including ether-treated B antigens. The serology data were linked to the results of nuclei acid testing (rRT-PCR) based on acute respiratory illness (ARI) surveillance. RESULTS Among all participants, 43 %(602/1384) demonstrated serology and/or rRT-PCR evidenced infection, and 44 %(265/602) of all infections were asymptomatic. ARI-associated rRT-PCR testing identified only 10 %(61/602) of total infections. Only 1 %(5/420) of the B Victoria cases reported ARI and had a rRT-PCR positive result, compared with 33 %(54/165) of the H3N2 cases. Among influenza ARI cases with multiple serum samples, 19 %(11/58) had seroconversion to a different subtype prior to the illness. CONCLUSIONS The incidence of influenza B infection in unvaccinated pregnant persons is under-estimated substantially. Non-pharmaceutical intervention may have suboptimal effectiveness in preventing influenza B transmission due to the less clinical manifestation compared to influenza A. The findings support maternal influenza vaccination to protect pregnant persons and reduce consequent household transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Liling Chen
- Suzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, PR China
| | - Min Z Levine
- U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Suizan Zhou
- U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Tian Bai
- Chinese National Influenza Center, National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, PR China
| | - Yuanyuan Pang
- Suzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, PR China
| | - Lin Bao
- Suzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, PR China
| | - Yayun Tan
- Suzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, PR China
| | - Pengwei Cui
- Suzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, PR China
| | - Ran Zhang
- U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | | | - Carolyn M Greene
- U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Zhongwei Zhang
- Suzhou Municipal Hospital, Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, PR China
| | - Yan Wang
- Wuzhong Maternal and Child Health Care Institute, Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, PR China
| | - Jun Zhang
- Suzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, PR China.
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de Jong SPJ, Felix Garza ZC, Gibson JC, Han AX, van Leeuwen S, de Vries RP, Boons GJ, van Hoesel M, de Haan K, van Groeningen LE, Hulme KD, van Willigen HDG, Wynberg E, de Bree GJ, Matser A, Bakker M, van der Hoek L, Prins M, Kootstra NA, Eggink D, Nichols BE, de Jong MD, Russell CA. Potential impacts of prolonged absence of influenza virus circulation on subsequent epidemics. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2022:2022.02.05.22270494. [PMID: 36415458 PMCID: PMC9681055 DOI: 10.1101/2022.02.05.22270494] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
Background During the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, the circulation of seasonal influenza viruses was unprecedentedly low. This led to concerns that the lack of immune stimulation to influenza viruses combined with waning antibody titres could lead to increased susceptibility to influenza in subsequent seasons, resulting in larger and more severe epidemics. Methods We analyzed historical influenza virus epidemiological data from 2003-2019 to assess the historical frequency of near-absence of seasonal influenza virus circulation and its impact on the size and severity of subsequent epidemics. Additionally, we measured haemagglutination inhibition-based antibody titres against seasonal influenza viruses using longitudinal serum samples from 165 healthy adults, collected before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, and estimated how antibody titres against seasonal influenza waned during the first two years of the pandemic. Findings Low country-level prevalence of influenza virus (sub)types over one or more years occurred frequently before the COVID-19 pandemic and had relatively small impacts on subsequent epidemic size and severity. Additionally, antibody titres against seasonal influenza viruses waned negligibly during the first two years of the pandemic. Interpretation The commonly held notion that lulls in influenza virus circulation, as observed during the COVID-19 pandemic, will lead to larger and/or more severe subsequent epidemics might not be fully warranted, and it is likely that post-lull seasons will be similar in size and severity to pre-lull seasons. Funding European Research Council, Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research, Royal Dutch Academy of Sciences, Public Health Service of Amsterdam. Research in context Evidence before this study: During the first years of the COVID-19 pandemic, the incidence of seasonal influenza was unusually low, leading to widespread concerns of exceptionally large and/or severe influenza epidemics in the coming years. We searched PubMed and Google Scholar using a combination of search terms (i.e., "seasonal influenza", "SARS-CoV-2", "COVID-19", "low incidence", "waning rates", "immune protection") and critically considered published articles and preprints that studied or reviewed the low incidence of seasonal influenza viruses since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and its potential impact on future seasonal influenza epidemics. We found a substantial body of work describing how influenza virus circulation was reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic, and a number of studies projecting the size of future epidemics, each positing that post-pandemic epidemics are likely to be larger than those observed pre-pandemic. However, it remains unclear to what extent the assumed relationship between accumulated susceptibility and subsequent epidemic size holds, and it remains unknown to what extent antibody levels have waned during the COVID-19 pandemic. Both are potentially crucial for accurate prediction of post-pandemic epidemic sizes.Added value of this study: We find that the relationship between epidemic size and severity and the magnitude of circulation in the preceding season(s) is decidedly more complex than assumed, with the magnitude of influenza circulation in preceding seasons having only limited effects on subsequent epidemic size and severity. Rather, epidemic size and severity are dominated by season-specific effects unrelated to the magnitude of circulation in the preceding season(s). Similarly, we find that antibody levels waned only modestly during the COVID-19 pandemic.Implications of all the available evidence: The lack of changes observed in the patterns of measured antibody titres against seasonal influenza viruses in adults and nearly two decades of epidemiological data suggest that post-pandemic epidemic sizes will likely be similar to those observed pre-pandemic, and challenge the commonly held notion that the widespread concern that the near-absence of seasonal influenza virus circulation during the COVID-19 pandemic, or potential future lulls, are likely to result in larger influenza epidemics in subsequent years.
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CALABRÒ GIOVANNAELISA, ICARDI GIANCARLO, BONANNI PAOLO, GABUTTI GIOVANNI, VITALE FRANCESCO, RIZZO CATERINA, CICCHETTI AMERICO, STAIANO ANNAMARIA, ANSALDI FILIPPO, ORSI ANDREA, DE WAURE CHIARA, PANATTO DONATELLA, AMICIZIA DANIELA, BERT FABRIZIO, VILLANI ALBERTO, IERACI ROBERTO, CONVERSANO MICHELE, RUSSO CARMELA, RUMI FILIPPO, SCOTTI SILVESTRO, MAIO TOMMASA, RUSSO ROCCO, VACCARO CONCETTAMARIA, SILIQUINI ROBERTA, RICCIARDI WALTER. [Flu vaccination and value-based health care: operational solutions to safeguard public health]. JOURNAL OF PREVENTIVE MEDICINE AND HYGIENE 2022; 63:E1-E85. [PMID: 36310765 PMCID: PMC9586154 DOI: 10.15167/2421-4248/jpmh2022.63.2s2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- GIOVANNA ELISA CALABRÒ
- Sezione di Igiene, Dipartimento Universitario di Scienze della Vita e Sanità Pubblica, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Roma
- VIHTALI - Value In Health Technology and Academy for Leadership & Innovation, Spin-Off dell'Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Roma
- Autore corrispondente: Giovanna Elisa Calabrò, Sezione di Igiene, Dipartimento Universitario di Scienze della Vita e Sanità Pubblica, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Roma, Italia - E-mail:
| | - GIANCARLO ICARDI
- Dipartimento di Scienze della Salute, Università degli Studi di Genova
- U.O. Igiene, IRCCS Ospedale Policlinico San Martino, Genova
| | - PAOLO BONANNI
- Dipartimento di Scienze della Salute (DSS), Università di Firenze
| | - GIOVANNI GABUTTI
- Coordinatore Nazionale GdL Vaccini e Politiche Vaccinali della SItI
| | - FRANCESCO VITALE
- Dipartimento Promozione della Salute, Materno-Infantile, di Medicina Interna e Specialistica di Eccellenza “G. D’Alessandro”, Università degli Studi di Palermo
| | - CATERINA RIZZO
- Dipartimento di ricerca traslazionale e nuove tecnologie in medicina e chirurgia, Università degli Studi di Pisa
| | - AMERICO CICCHETTI
- Alta Scuola di Economia e Management dei Sistemi Sanitari (ALTEMS), Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Roma
| | - ANNAMARIA STAIANO
- Dipartimento di Scienze Mediche Traslazionali, Università degli Studi “Federico II”, Napoli
- Presidente Società Italiana di Pediatria (SIP)
| | - FILIPPO ANSALDI
- Dipartimento di Scienze della Salute, Università degli Studi di Genova
- A.Li.Sa. Azienda Ligure Sanitaria Regione Liguria
| | - ANDREA ORSI
- Dipartimento di Scienze della Salute, Università degli Studi di Genova
- U.O. Igiene, IRCCS Ospedale Policlinico San Martino, Genova
| | - CHIARA DE WAURE
- Dipartimento di Medicina e Chirurgia, Università degli Studi di Perugia
| | - DONATELLA PANATTO
- Dipartimento di Scienze della Salute, Università degli Studi di Genova
| | - DANIELA AMICIZIA
- Dipartimento di Scienze della Salute, Università degli Studi di Genova
- A.Li.Sa. Azienda Ligure Sanitaria Regione Liguria
| | - FABRIZIO BERT
- Dipartimento di Scienze della Sanità Pubblica e Pediatriche, Università degli Studi di Torino
- SSDU Igiene Ospedaliera e Governo delle Infezioni Correlate all’Assistenza, ASL TO3
| | - ALBERTO VILLANI
- Dipartimento Emergenza Accettazione Ospedale Pediatrico Bambino Gesù, IRCCS, Roma
- Dipartimento di Medicina dei Sistemi, Università di Roma Tor Vergata
| | - ROBERTO IERACI
- Strategie vaccinali, Regione Lazio
- Ricercatore associato CID Ethics-CNR
| | | | - CARMELA RUSSO
- U.O.S.V.D. Epidemiologia - Comunicazione e Formazione Coordinamento delle Attività di Promozione della Salute e di Educazione Sanitaria, ASL Taranto
| | - FILIPPO RUMI
- Alta Scuola di Economia e Management dei Sistemi Sanitari (ALTEMS), Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Roma
| | | | - TOMMASA MAIO
- Federazione Italiana Medici di Medicina Generale (FIMMG)
| | - ROCCO RUSSO
- Coordinatore tavolo tecnico vaccinazioni, Società Italiana di Pediatria (SIP)
| | | | - ROBERTA SILIQUINI
- Dipartimento di Scienze della Sanità Pubblica e Pediatriche, Università degli Studi di Torino
- AOU Città della Salute e della Scienza di Torino
| | - WALTER RICCIARDI
- Sezione di Igiene, Dipartimento Universitario di Scienze della Vita e Sanità Pubblica, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Roma
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Characterization of influenza infection in a high-income urban setting in Nairobi, Kenya. Trop Med Health 2022; 50:69. [PMID: 36114561 PMCID: PMC9479273 DOI: 10.1186/s41182-022-00463-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2022] [Accepted: 09/09/2022] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Influenza viruses are an important cause of respiratory infections across all age groups. Information on occurrence and magnitude of influenza virus infections in different populations in Kenya however remains scanty, compromising estimation of influenza disease burden. This study examined influenza infection in an urban high-income setting in Nairobi to establish its prevalence and activity of influenza viruses, and evaluated diagnostic performance of a rapid influenza diagnostic test. Methodology A cross-sectional hospital-based study was conducted in six private health facilities located within high-income residential areas in Nairobi from January 2019 to July 2020. Patients of all ages presenting with influenza-like illness (ILI) were recruited into the study. Detection of influenza virus was conducted using rapid diagnosis and reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction (RT–PCR). Data were summarized using descriptive statistics and tests of association. Sensitivity, specificity and area under receiver operating characteristics curve was calculated to establish diagnostic accuracy of the rapid diagnosis test. Results The study recruited 125 participants with signs and symptoms of ILI, of whom 21 (16.8%) were positive for influenza viruses. Of all the influenza-positive cases, 17 (81.0%) were influenza type A of which 70.6% were pandemic H1N1 (A/H1N1 2009). Highest detection was observed among children aged 5–10 years. Influenza virus mostly circulated during the second half of the year, and fever, general fatigue and muscular and joint pain were significantly observed among participants with influenza virus. Sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test was 95% (95% confidence interval 75.1–99.9) and 100% (95% confidence interval 96.5–100.0), respectively. Conclusions Findings of this study shows continuous but variable activity of influenza virus throughout the year in this population, with substantial disease burden. The findings highlight the need for continuous epidemiologic surveillance including genetic surveillance to monitor activity and generate data to inform vaccine introduction or development, and other interventions.
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Chang H, Mei Y, Li Y, Shang L. An AIE and ESIPT based neuraminidase fluorescent probe for influenza virus detection and imaging. Talanta 2022; 247:123583. [DOI: 10.1016/j.talanta.2022.123583] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2022] [Revised: 05/19/2022] [Accepted: 05/20/2022] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
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Abstract
Annual seasonal influenza epidemics of variable severity caused by influenza A and B virus infections result in substantial disease burden worldwide. Seasonal influenza virus circulation declined markedly in 2020-21 after SARS-CoV-2 emerged but increased in 2021-22. Most people with influenza have abrupt onset of respiratory symptoms and myalgia with or without fever and recover within 1 week, but some can experience severe or fatal complications. Prevention is primarily by annual influenza vaccination, with efforts underway to develop new vaccines with improved effectiveness. Sporadic zoonotic infections with novel influenza A viruses of avian or swine origin continue to pose pandemic threats. In this Seminar, we discuss updates of key influenza issues for clinicians, in particular epidemiology, virology, and pathogenesis, diagnostic testing including multiplex assays that detect influenza viruses and SARS-CoV-2, complications, antiviral treatment, influenza vaccines, infection prevention, and non-pharmaceutical interventions, and highlight gaps in clinical management and priorities for clinical research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Timothy M Uyeki
- Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
| | - David S Hui
- Division of Respiratory Medicine and Stanley Ho Centre for Emerging Infectious Diseases, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Prince of Wales Hospital, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Maria Zambon
- Virology Reference Department, UK Health Security Agency, London, UK
| | - David E Wentworth
- Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Arnold S Monto
- Center for Respiratory Research and Response, Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
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35
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Sun K, Tempia S, Kleynhans J, von Gottberg A, McMorrow ML, Wolter N, Bhiman JN, Moyes J, du Plessis M, Carrim M, Buys A, Martinson NA, Kahn K, Tollman S, Lebina L, Wafawanaka F, du Toit JD, Gómez-Olivé FX, Mkhencele T, Viboud C, Cohen C. SARS-CoV-2 transmission, persistence of immunity, and estimates of Omicron's impact in South African population cohorts. Sci Transl Med 2022; 14:eabo7081. [PMID: 35638937 PMCID: PMC9161370 DOI: 10.1126/scitranslmed.abo7081] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/20/2022] [Accepted: 05/25/2022] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
Understanding the build-up of immunity with successive severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants and the epidemiological conditions that favor rapidly expanding epidemics will help facilitate future pandemic control. We analyzed high-resolution infection and serology data from two longitudinal household cohorts in South Africa to reveal high cumulative infection rates and durable cross-protective immunity conferred by prior infection in the pre-Omicron era. Building on the history of past exposures to different SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination in the cohort most representative of South Africa's high urbanization rate, we used mathematical models to explore the fitness advantage of the Omicron variant and its epidemic trajectory. Modeling suggests that the Omicron wave likely infected a large fraction (44 to 81%) of the population, leaving a complex landscape of population immunity primed and boosted with antigenically distinct variants. We project that future SARS-CoV-2 resurgences are likely under a range of scenarios of viral characteristics, population contacts, and residual cross-protection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kaiyuan Sun
- Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, 20892-2220, United States of America
| | - Stefano Tempia
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, 2131, South Africa
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2193, South Africa
- Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, 30333, United States of America
| | - Jackie Kleynhans
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, 2131, South Africa
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2193, South Africa
| | - Anne von Gottberg
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, 2131, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2000, South Africa
| | - Meredith L McMorrow
- Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, 30333, United States of America
| | - Nicole Wolter
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, 2131, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2000, South Africa
| | - Jinal N. Bhiman
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, 2131, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2000, South Africa
| | - Jocelyn Moyes
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, 2131, South Africa
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2193, South Africa
| | - Mignon du Plessis
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, 2131, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2000, South Africa
| | - Maimuna Carrim
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, 2131, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2000, South Africa
| | - Amelia Buys
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, 2131, South Africa
| | - Neil A Martinson
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, 1864, South Africa
- Johns Hopkins University Center for TB Research, Baltimore, Maryland, 21287, United States of America
| | - Kathleen Kahn
- MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2193, South Africa
| | - Stephen Tollman
- MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2193, South Africa
| | - Limakatso Lebina
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, 1864, South Africa
| | - Floidy Wafawanaka
- MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2193, South Africa
| | - Jacques D. du Toit
- MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2193, South Africa
| | - Francesc Xavier Gómez-Olivé
- MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2193, South Africa
| | - Thulisa Mkhencele
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, 2131, South Africa
| | - Cécile Viboud
- Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, 20892-2220, United States of America
| | - Cheryl Cohen
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, 2131, South Africa
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2193, South Africa
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Uchida M, Yamauchi T. Rate of diagnosed seasonal influenza in children with influenza-like illness: A cross-sectional study. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0269804. [PMID: 35687648 PMCID: PMC9187082 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0269804] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/14/2021] [Accepted: 05/31/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction Although influenza surveillance systems have been used to monitor influenza epidemics, these systems generally evaluate diagnostic information obtained from medical institutions and they do not include patients who have not been examined. In contrast, community based epidemiological studies target people with influenza-like illness (ILI) that self-reported influenza-like symptoms whether they have medical examinations or not. Because the criteria for influenza surveillance systems and ILI differ, there is a gap between them. The purpose of this study was to clarify this gap using school-based survey data. Methods Questionnaires about both ILI and the influenza diagnosis history during the 2018/19 season were administered to the guardians of 11,684 elementary schoolchildren in a single city in Japan. Based on their responses, a Bayesian model was constructed to estimate the probability of infection, ILI onset, and diagnosis at medical institutions. Results Responses were obtained from guardians of 10,309 children (88.2%). Of these, 3,380 children (32.8%) had experienced ILI, with 2,380 (23.1%) diagnosed as influenza at a medical institution. Bayesian estimation showed that the probability of influenza cases being diagnosed among ILI symptomatic children was 70% (95% credible interval, 69–71%). Of the infected children, 5% were without ILI symptoms, with 11% of these patients diagnosed with influenza. Conclusions This epidemiological study clarified the proportion gap between ILI and influenza diagnosis among schoolchildren. These results may help to establish epidemic control measures and secure sufficient medical resources.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mitsuo Uchida
- Department of Public Health, Graduate School of Medicine, Gunma University, Maebashi, Gunma, Japan
- * E-mail:
| | - Takenori Yamauchi
- Department of Hygiene, Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Showa University, Tokyo, Japan
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SARS-CoV-2 incidence, transmission, and reinfection in a rural and an urban setting: results of the PHIRST-C cohort study, South Africa, 2020-21. THE LANCET. INFECTIOUS DISEASES 2022; 22:821-834. [PMID: 35298900 PMCID: PMC8920516 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(22)00069-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 48] [Impact Index Per Article: 24.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2021] [Revised: 01/25/2022] [Accepted: 02/01/2022] [Indexed: 01/11/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND By August, 2021, South Africa had been affected by three waves of SARS-CoV-2; the second associated with the beta variant and the third with the delta variant. Data on SARS-CoV-2 burden, transmission, and asymptomatic infections from Africa are scarce. We aimed to evaluate SARS-CoV-2 burden and transmission in one rural and one urban community in South Africa. METHODS We conducted a prospective cohort study of households in Agincourt, Mpumalanga province (rural site) and Klerksdorp, North West province (urban site) from July, 2020 to August, 2021. We randomly selected households for the rural site from a health and sociodemographic surveillance system and for the urban site using GPS coordinates. Households with more than two members and where at least 75% of members consented to participate were eligible. Midturbinate nasal swabs were collected twice a week from household members irrespective of symptoms and tested for SARS-CoV-2 using real-time RT-PCR (RT-rtPCR). Serum was collected every 2 months and tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Main outcomes were the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, frequency of reinfection, symptomatic fraction (percent of infected individuals with ≥1 symptom), the duration of viral RNA shedding (number of days of SARS-CoV-2 RT-rtPCR positivity), and the household cumulative infection risk (HCIR; number of infected household contacts divided by the number of susceptible household members). FINDINGS 222 households (114 at the rural site and 108 at the urban site), and 1200 household members (643 at the rural site and 557 at the urban site) were included in the analysis. For 115 759 nasal specimens from 1200 household members (follow-up 92·5%), 1976 (1·7%) were SARS-CoV-2-positive on RT-rtPCR. By RT-rtPCR and serology combined, 749 of 1200 individuals (62·4% [95% CI 58·1-66·4]) had at least one SARS-CoV-2 infection episode, and 87 of 749 (11·6% [9·4-14·2]) were reinfected. The mean infection episode duration was 11·6 days (SD 9·0; range 4-137). Of 662 RT-rtPCR-confirmed episodes (>14 days after the start of follow-up) with available data, 97 (14·7% [11·9-17·9]) were symptomatic with at least one symptom (in individuals aged <19 years, 28 [7·5%] of 373 episodes symptomatic; in individuals aged ≥19 years, 69 [23·9%] of 289 episodes symptomatic). Among 222 households, 200 (90·1% [85·3-93·7]) had at least one SARS-CoV-2-positive individual on RT-rtPCR or serology. HCIR overall was 23·9% (195 of 817 susceptible household members infected [95% CI 19·8-28·4]). HCIR was 23·3% (20 of 86) for symptomatic index cases and 23·9% (175 of 731) for asymptomatic index cases (univariate odds ratio [OR] 1·0 [95% CI 0·5-2·0]). On multivariable analysis, accounting for age and sex, low minimum cycle threshold value (≤30 vs >30) of the index case (OR 5·3 [2·3-12·4]) and beta and delta variant infection (vs Wuhan-Hu-1, OR 3·3 [1·4-8·2] and 10·4 [4·1-26·7], respectively) were associated with increased HCIR. People living with HIV who were not virally supressed (≥400 viral load copies per mL) were more likely to develop symptomatic illness when infected with SAR-CoV-2 (OR 3·3 [1·3-8·4]), and shed SARS-CoV-2 for longer (hazard ratio 0·4 [95% CI 0·3-0·6]) compared with HIV-uninfected individuals. INTERPRETATION In this study, 565 (85·3%) SARS-CoV-2 infections were asymptomatic and index case symptom status did not affect HCIR, suggesting a limited role for control measures targeting symptomatic individuals. Increased household transmission of beta and delta variants was likely to have contributed to successive waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection, with more than 60% of individuals infected by the end of follow-up. FUNDING US CDC, South Africa National Institute for Communicable Diseases, and Wellcome Trust.
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The impact of clinical risk conditions on influenza and pneumonia diagnoses in England: a nationally-representative retrospective cohort study, 2010-2019. Epidemiol Infect 2022; 150:e107. [PMID: 35514148 PMCID: PMC9171903 DOI: 10.1017/s0950268822000838] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
The impact of influenza and pneumonia on individuals in clinical risk groups in England has not previously been well characterized. Using nationally representative linked databases (Clinical Practice Research Database (CPRD), Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) and Office for National Statistics (ONS)), we conducted a retrospective cohort study among adults (≥ 18 years) during the 2010/2011–2019/2020 influenza seasons to estimate the incidence of influenza- and pneumonia-diagnosed medical events (general practitioner (GP) diagnoses, hospitalisations and deaths), stratified by age and risk conditions. The study population included a seasonal average of 7.2 million individuals; approximately 32% had ≥1 risk condition, 42% of whom received seasonal influenza vaccines. Medical event incidence rates increased with age, with ~1% of adults aged ≥75 years hospitalized for influenza/pneumonia annually. Among individuals with vs. without risk conditions, GP diagnoses occurred 2–5-fold more frequently and hospitalisations were 7–10-fold more common. Among those with obesity, respiratory, kidney or cardiovascular disorders, hospitalisation were 5–40-fold more common than in individuals with no risk conditions. Though these findings likely underestimate the full burden of influenza, they emphasize the concentration of disease burden in specific age and risk groups and support existing recommendations for influenza vaccination.
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Lopez-Moreno G, Davies P, Yang M, Culhane MR, Corzo CA, Li C, Rendahl A, Torremorell M. Evidence of influenza A infection and risk of transmission between pigs and farmworkers. Zoonoses Public Health 2022; 69:560-571. [PMID: 35445551 PMCID: PMC9546022 DOI: 10.1111/zph.12948] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/05/2022] [Revised: 02/18/2022] [Accepted: 04/02/2022] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
Abstract
Interspecies transmission of influenza A virus (IAV) between pigs and people represents a threat to both animal and public health. To better understand the risks of influenza transmission at the human–animal interface, we evaluated 1) the rate of IAV detection in swine farmworkers before and after work during two human influenza seasons, 2) assessed risk factors associated with IAV detection in farmworkers and 3) characterized the genetic sequences of IAV detected in both workers and pigs. Of 58 workers providing nasal passage samples during 8‐week periods during the 2017/18 and 2018/19 influenza seasons, 33 (57%) tested positive by rRT‐PCR at least once. Sixteen (27%) workers tested positive before work and 24 (41%) after work. At the sample level, 58 of 1,785 nasal swabs (3.2%) tested rRT‐PCR positive, of which 20 of 898 (2.2%) were collected prior to work and 38 of 887 (4.3%) after work. Although farmworkers were more likely to test positive at the end of the working day (OR = 1.98, 95% CI 1.14–3.41), there were no influenza‐like illness (ILI) symptoms, or other risk indicators, associated with IAV detection before or after reporting to work. Direct whole‐genome sequencing from samples obtained from worker nasal passages indicated evidence of infection of a worker with pandemic 2009 H1N1 of human‐origin IAV (H1‐pdm 1A 3.3.2) when reporting to work, and exposure of several workers to a swine‐origin IAV (H1‐alpha 1A 1.1) circulating in the pigs on the farm where they were employed. Our study provides evidence of 1) risk of IAV transmission between pigs and people, 2) pandemic H1N1 IAV infected workers reporting to work and 3) workers exposed to swine harbouring swine‐origin IAV in their nasal passages temporarily. Overall, our results emphasize the need to implement surveillance and transmission preventive protocols at the pig/human interface.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gustavo Lopez-Moreno
- Veterinary Population Medicine Department, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA
| | - Peter Davies
- Veterinary Population Medicine Department, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA
| | - My Yang
- Veterinary Population Medicine Department, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA
| | - Marie R Culhane
- Veterinary Population Medicine Department, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA
| | - Cesar A Corzo
- Veterinary Population Medicine Department, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA
| | - Chong Li
- Veterinary Population Medicine Department, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA
| | - Aaron Rendahl
- Veterinary and Biomedical Sciences Department, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA
| | - Montserrat Torremorell
- Veterinary Population Medicine Department, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA
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Abstract
Community testing studies can provide insights as SARS-CoV-2 evolves.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adam J Kucharski
- Centre for Epidemic Preparedness and Response, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Cheryl Cohen
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
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Reconstructing antibody dynamics to estimate the risk of influenza virus infection. Nat Commun 2022; 13:1557. [PMID: 35322048 PMCID: PMC8943152 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-29310-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/20/2021] [Accepted: 03/03/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
For >70 years, a 4-fold or greater rise in antibody titer has been used to confirm influenza virus infections in paired sera, despite recognition that this heuristic can lack sensitivity. Here we analyze with a novel Bayesian model a large cohort of 2353 individuals followed for up to 5 years in Hong Kong to characterize influenza antibody dynamics and develop an algorithm to improve the identification of influenza virus infections. After infection, we estimate that hemagglutination-inhibiting (HAI) titers were boosted by 16-fold on average and subsequently decrease by 14% per year. In six epidemics, the infection risks for adults were 3%-19% while the infection risks for children were 1.6-4.4 times higher than that of younger adults. Every two-fold increase in pre-epidemic HAI titer was associated with 19%-58% protection against infection. Our inferential framework clarifies the contributions of age and pre-epidemic HAI titers to characterize individual infection risk.
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Affinity maturation for an optimal balance between long-term immune coverage and short-term resource constraints. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2022; 119:2113512119. [PMID: 35177475 PMCID: PMC8872716 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2113512119] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 01/07/2022] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Humoral immunity relies on the mutation and selection of B cells to better recognize pathogens. This affinity maturation process produces cells with diverse recognition capabilities. Examining optimal immune strategies that maximize the long-term immune coverage at a minimal metabolic cost, we show when the immune system should mount a de novo response rather than rely on existing memory cells. Our theory recapitulates known modes of the B cell response, predicts the empirical form of the distribution of clone sizes, and rationalizes as a trade-off between metabolic and immune costs the antigenic imprinting effects that limit the efficacy of vaccines (original antigenic sin). Our predictions provide a framework to interpret experimental results that could be used to inform vaccination strategies. In order to target threatening pathogens, the adaptive immune system performs a continuous reorganization of its lymphocyte repertoire. Following an immune challenge, the B cell repertoire can evolve cells of increased specificity for the encountered strain. This process of affinity maturation generates a memory pool whose diversity and size remain difficult to predict. We assume that the immune system follows a strategy that maximizes the long-term immune coverage and minimizes the short-term metabolic costs associated with affinity maturation. This strategy is defined as an optimal decision process on a finite dimensional phenotypic space, where a preexisting population of cells is sequentially challenged with a neutrally evolving strain. We show that the low specificity and high diversity of memory B cells—a key experimental result—can be explained as a strategy to protect against pathogens that evolve fast enough to escape highly potent but narrow memory. This plasticity of the repertoire drives the emergence of distinct regimes for the size and diversity of the memory pool, depending on the density of de novo responding cells and on the mutation rate of the strain. The model predicts power-law distributions of clonotype sizes observed in data and rationalizes antigenic imprinting as a strategy to minimize metabolic costs while keeping good immune protection against future strains.
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Tempia S, Moyes J, Cohen AL, Walaza S, McMorrow ML, Treurnicht FK, Hellferscee O, Wolter N, von Gottberg A, Dawood H, Variava E, Cohen C. The national burden of influenza-like illness and severe respiratory illness overall and associated with nine respiratory viruses in South Africa, 2013-2015. Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2022; 16:438-451. [PMID: 35150059 PMCID: PMC8983907 DOI: 10.1111/irv.12949] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2021] [Revised: 11/30/2021] [Accepted: 12/01/2021] [Indexed: 01/27/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Estimates of the disease burden associated with different respiratory viruses are severely limited in low- and middle-income countries, especially in Africa. METHODS We estimated age-specific numbers and rates of medically and non-medically attended influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe respiratory illness (SRI) that were associated with influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), rhinovirus, human metapneumovirus, adenovirus, enterovirus and parainfluenza virus types 1-3 after adjusting for the attributable fraction (AF) of virus detection to illness in South Africa during 2013-2015. The base rates were estimated from five surveillance sites and extrapolated nationally. RESULTS The mean annual rates per 100,000 population were 51,383 and 4196 for ILI and SRI, respectively. Of these, 26% (for ILI) and 46% (for SRI) were medically attended. Among outpatients with ILI, rhinovirus had the highest AF-adjusted rate (7221), followed by influenza (6443) and adenovirus (1364); whereas, among inpatients with SRI, rhinovirus had the highest AF-adjusted rate (400), followed by RSV (247) and influenza (130). Rhinovirus (9424) and RSV (2026) had the highest AF-adjusted rates among children aged <5 years with ILI or SRI, respectively, whereas rhinovirus (757) and influenza (306) had the highest AF-adjusted rates among individuals aged ≥65 years with ILI or SRI, respectively. CONCLUSIONS There was a substantial burden of ILI and SRI in South Africa during 2013-2015. Rhinovirus and influenza had a prominent disease burden among patients with ILI. RSV and influenza were the most prominent causes of SRI in children and the elderly, respectively.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stefano Tempia
- Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.,Influenza Program, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Pretoria, South Africa.,Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa.,MassGenics, Duluth, GA, USA.,School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Jocelyn Moyes
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa.,School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Adam L Cohen
- Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.,Global Immunization Monitoring and Surveillance Team, Expanded Programme on Immunization, Department of Immunization, Vaccines and Biological, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Sibongile Walaza
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa.,School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Meredith L McMorrow
- Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.,Influenza Program, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Pretoria, South Africa
| | - Florette K Treurnicht
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa.,Division of Virology, National Health Laboratory Service, Charlotte Maxeke Johannesburg Academic Hospital, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Orienka Hellferscee
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa.,School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Nicole Wolter
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa.,School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Anne von Gottberg
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa.,School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Halima Dawood
- Department of Medicine, Pietermaritzburg Metropolitan Hospital, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa.,Department of Medicine, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa
| | - Ebrahim Variava
- Department of Medicine, Klerksdorp-Tshepong Hospital Complex, Klerksdorp, South Africa.,Department of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.,Perinatal HIV Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Cheryl Cohen
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa.,School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
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Klompas M, Rhee C. OUP accepted manuscript. J Infect Dis 2022; 226:191-194. [PMID: 35535586 PMCID: PMC9384050 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiac197] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2022] [Accepted: 05/06/2022] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Michael Klompas
- Correspondence: Michael Klompas, MD, MPH, Department of Population Medicine, 401 Park Drive, Suite 401 E, Boston, MA 02215, USA ()
| | - Chanu Rhee
- Department of Population Medicine, Harvard Medical School and Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
- Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
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45
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Thindwa D, Wolter N, Pinsent A, Carrim M, Ojal J, Tempia S, Moyes J, McMorrow M, Kleynhans J, von Gottberg A, French N, Cohen C, Flasche S. Estimating the contribution of HIV-infected adults to household pneumococcal transmission in South Africa, 2016–2018: A hidden Markov modelling study. PLoS Comput Biol 2021; 17:e1009680. [PMID: 34941865 PMCID: PMC8699682 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009680] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/20/2021] [Accepted: 11/24/2021] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected adults are at a higher risk of pneumococcal colonisation and disease, even while receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). To help evaluate potential indirect effects of vaccination of HIV-infected adults, we assessed whether HIV-infected adults disproportionately contribute to household transmission of pneumococci. We constructed a hidden Markov model to capture the dynamics of pneumococcal carriage acquisition and clearance observed during a longitudinal household-based nasopharyngeal swabbing study, while accounting for sample misclassifications. Households were followed-up twice weekly for approximately 10 months each year during a three-year study period for nasopharyngeal carriage detection via real-time PCR. We estimated the effect of participant’s age, HIV status, presence of a HIV-infected adult within the household and other covariates on pneumococcal acquisition and clearance probabilities. Of 1,684 individuals enrolled, 279 (16.6%) were younger children (<5 years-old) of whom 4 (1.5%) were HIV-infected and 726 (43.1%) were adults (≥18 years-old) of whom 214 (30.4%) were HIV-infected, most (173, 81.2%) with high CD4+ count. The observed range of pneumococcal carriage prevalence across visits was substantially higher in younger children (56.9–80.5%) than older children (5–17 years-old) (31.7–50.0%) or adults (11.5–23.5%). We estimate that 14.4% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 13.7–15.0) of pneumococcal-negative swabs were false negatives. Daily carriage acquisition probabilities among HIV-uninfected younger children were similar in households with and without HIV-infected adults (hazard ratio: 0.95, 95%CI: 0.91–1.01). Longer average carriage duration (11.4 days, 95%CI: 10.2–12.8 vs 6.0 days, 95%CI: 5.6–6.3) and higher median carriage density (622 genome equivalents per millilitre, 95%CI: 507–714 vs 389, 95%CI: 311.1–435.5) were estimated in HIV-infected vs HIV-uninfected adults. The use of ART and antibiotics substantially reduced carriage duration in all age groups, and acquisition rates increased with household size. Although South African HIV-infected adults on ART have longer carriage duration and density than their HIV-uninfected counterparts, they show similar patterns of pneumococcal acquisition and onward transmission. We assessed the contribution of HIV-infected adults to household pneumococcal transmission by applying a hidden Markov model to pneumococcal cohort data comprising 115,595 nasopharyngeal samples from 1,684 individuals in rural and urban settings in South Africa. We estimated 14.4% of sample misclassifications (false negatives), representing 85.6% sensitivity of a test that was used to detect pneumococcus. Pneumococcal carriage prevalence and acquisition rates, and average duration were usually higher in younger or older children than adults. The use of ART and antibiotics reduced the average carriage duration across all age and HIV groups, and carriage acquisition risks increased in larger household sizes. Despite the longer average carriage duration and higher median carriage density in HIV-infected than HIV-uninfected adults, we found similar carriage acquisition and onward transmission risks in the dual groups. These findings suggest that vaccinating HIV-infected adults on ART with PCV would reduce their risk for pneumococcal disease but may add little to the indirect protection against carriage of the rest of the population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Deus Thindwa
- Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Malawi Liverpool Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Programme, Blantyre, Malawi
- * E-mail:
| | - Nicole Wolter
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Pathology, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Amy Pinsent
- Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Aquarius Population Health, London, United Kingdom
| | - Maimuna Carrim
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - John Ojal
- Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Geographic Medicine Centre, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Stefano Tempia
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- Influenza Program, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Pretoria, South Africa
- Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
- MassGenics, Duluth, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Jocelyn Moyes
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Meredith McMorrow
- Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Jackie Kleynhans
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Anne von Gottberg
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Pathology, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Neil French
- Malawi Liverpool Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Programme, Blantyre, Malawi
- Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Science, Department of Clinical Infection, Microbiology, and Immunology, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | | | - Cheryl Cohen
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Stefan Flasche
- Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
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McKimm-Breschkin JL, Hay AJ, Cao B, Cox RJ, Dunning J, Moen AC, Olson D, Pizzorno A, Hayden FG. COVID-19, Influenza and RSV: Surveillance-informed prevention and treatment - Meeting report from an isirv-WHO virtual conference. Antiviral Res 2021; 197:105227. [PMID: 34933044 PMCID: PMC8684224 DOI: 10.1016/j.antiviral.2021.105227] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/14/2021] [Accepted: 12/15/2021] [Indexed: 12/19/2022]
Abstract
The International Society for Influenza and other Respiratory Virus Diseases (isirv) and the WHO held a joint virtual conference from 19th-21st October 2021. While there was a major focus on the global response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, including antivirals, vaccines and surveillance strategies, papers were also presented on treatment and prevention of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Potential therapeutics for SARS-CoV-2 included host-targeted therapies baricitinib, a JAK inhibitor, tocilizumab, an IL-6R inhibitor, verdinexor and direct acting antivirals ensovibep, S-217622, AT-527, and monoclonal antibodies casirivimab and imdevimab, directed against the spike protein. Data from trials of nirsevimab, a monoclonal antibody with a prolonged half-life which binds to the RSV F-protein, and an Ad26.RSV pre-F vaccine were also presented. The expanded role of the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System to address the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic was also discussed. This report summarizes the oral presentations given at this meeting for the benefit of the broader medical and scientific community involved in surveillance, treatment and prevention of respiratory virus diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jennifer L McKimm-Breschkin
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Melbourne, at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Parkville, VIC, Australia.
| | - Alan J Hay
- The Francis Crick Institute, London, UK.
| | - Bin Cao
- China-Japan Friendship Hospital, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases, Clinical Center for Pulmonary Infections, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
| | - Rebecca J Cox
- Influenza Centre, Department of Clinical Science, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway.
| | - Jake Dunning
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
| | - Ann C Moen
- Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
| | - Daniel Olson
- University of Colorado School of Medicine and Colorado School of Public Health, Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, CO, USA.
| | - Andrés Pizzorno
- International Center for Research in Infectious Diseases, University of Lyon, Lyon, France.
| | - Frederick G Hayden
- Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
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47
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Cohen C, Kleynhans J, von Gottberg A, McMorrow ML, Wolter N, Bhiman JN, Moyes J, du Plessis M, Carrim M, Buys A, Martinson NA, Kahn K, Tollman S, Lebina L, Wafawanaka F, du Toit J, Xavier Gómez-Olivé F, Dawood FS, Mkhencele T, Sun K, Viboud C, Tempia S. SARS-CoV-2 incidence, transmission and reinfection in a rural and an urban setting: results of the PHIRST-C cohort study, South Africa, 2020-2021. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2021:2021.07.20.21260855. [PMID: 34909794 PMCID: PMC8669861 DOI: 10.1101/2021.07.20.21260855] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/11/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND By August 2021, South Africa experienced three SARS-CoV-2 waves; the second and third associated with emergence of Beta and Delta variants respectively. METHODS We conducted a prospective cohort study during July 2020-August 2021 in one rural and one urban community. Mid-turbinate nasal swabs were collected twice-weekly from household members irrespective of symptoms and tested for SARS-CoV-2 using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR). Serum was collected every two months and tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. RESULTS Among 115,759 nasal specimens from 1,200 members (follow-up rate 93%), 1976 (2%) were SARS-CoV-2-positive. By rRT-PCR and serology combined, 62% (749/1200) of individuals experienced ≥1 SARS-CoV-2 infection episode, and 12% (87/749) experienced reinfection. Of 662 PCR-confirmed episodes with available data, 15% (n=97) were associated with ≥1 symptom. Among 222 households, 200 (90%) had ≥1 SARS-CoV-2-positive individual. Household cumulative infection risk (HCIR) was 25% (213/856). On multivariable analysis, accounting for age and sex, index case lower cycle threshold value (OR 3.9, 95%CI 1.7-8.8), urban community (OR 2.0,95%CI 1.1-3.9), Beta (OR 4.2, 95%CI 1.7-10.1) and Delta (OR 14.6, 95%CI 5.7-37.5) variant infection were associated with increased HCIR. HCIR was similar for symptomatic (21/110, 19%) and asymptomatic (195/775, 25%) index cases (p=0.165). Attack rates were highest in individuals aged 13-18 years and individuals in this age group were more likely to experience repeat infections and to acquire SARS-CoV-2 infection. People living with HIV who were not virally supressed were more likely to develop symptomatic illness, and shed SARS-CoV-2 for longer compared to HIV-uninfected individuals. CONCLUSIONS In this study, 85% of SARS-CoV-2 infections were asymptomatic and index case symptom status did not affect HCIR, suggesting a limited role for control measures targeting symptomatic individuals. Increased household transmission of Beta and Delta variants, likely contributed to successive waves, with >60% of individuals infected by the end of follow-up. RESEARCH IN CONTEXT Evidence before this study: Previous studies have generated wide-ranging estimates of the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections which are asymptomatic. A recent systematic review found that 20% (95% CI 3%-67%) of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections remained asymptomatic throughout infection and that transmission from asymptomatic individuals was reduced. A systematic review and meta-analysis of 87 household transmission studies of SARS-CoV-2 found an estimated secondary attack rate of 19% (95% CI 16-22). The review also found that household secondary attack rates were increased from symptomatic index cases and that adults were more likely to acquire infection. As of December 2021, South Africa experienced three waves of SARS-CoV-2 infections; the second and third waves were associated with circulation of Beta and Delta variants respectively. SARS-CoV-2 vaccines became available in February 2021, but uptake was low in study sites reaching 5% fully vaccinated at the end of follow up. Studies to quantify the burden of asymptomatic infections, symptomatic fraction, reinfection frequency, duration of shedding and household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from asymptomatically infected individuals have mostly been conducted as part of outbreak investigations or in specific settings. Comprehensive systematic community studies of SARS-CoV-2 burden and transmission including for the Beta and Delta variants are lacking, especially in low vaccination settings.Added value of this study: We conducted a unique detailed COVID-19 household cohort study over a 13 month period in South Africa, with real time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) testing twice a week irrespective of symptoms and bimonthly serology. By the end of the study in August 2021, 749 (62%) of 1200 individuals from 222 randomly sampled households in a rural and an urban community in South Africa had at least one confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, detected on rRT-PCR and/or serology, and 12% (87/749) experienced reinfection. Symptom data were analysed for 662 rRT-PCR-confirmed infection episodes that occurred >14 days after the start of follow-up (of a total of 718 rRT-PCR-confirmed episodes), of these, 15% (n=97) were associated with one or more symptoms. Among symptomatic indvidiausl, 9% (n=9) were hospitalised and 2% (n=2) died. Ninety percent (200/222) of included households, had one or more individual infected with SARS-CoV-2 on rRT-PCR and/or serology within the household. SARS-CoV-2 infected index cases transmitted the infection to 25% (213/856) of susceptible household contacts. Index case ribonucleic acid (RNA) viral load proxied by rRT-PCR cycle threshold value was strongly predictive of household transmission. Presence of symptoms in the index case was not associated with household transmission. Household transmission was four times greater from index cases infected with Beta variant and fifteen times greater from index cases infected with Delta variant compared to wild-type infection. Attack rates were highest in individuals aged 13-18 years and individuals in this age group were more likely to experience repeat infections and to acquire SARS-CoV-2 infection within households. People living with HIV (PLHIV) who were not virally supressed were more likely to develop symptomatic illness when infected with SARS-CoV-2, and shed SARS-CoV-2 for longer when compared to HIV-uninfected individuals.Implications of all the available evidence: We found a high rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection in households in a rural community and an urban community in South Africa, with the majority of infections being asymptomatic in individuals of all ages. Asymptomatic individuals transmitted SARS-CoV-2 at similar levels to symptomatic individuals suggesting that interventions targeting symptomatic individuals such as symptom-based testing and contact tracing of individuals tested because they report symptoms may have a limited impact as control measures. Increased household transmission of Beta and Delta variants, likely contributed to recurrent waves of COVID-19, with >60% of individuals infected by the end of follow-up. Higher attack rates, reinfection and acquisition in adolescents and prolonged SARS-CoV-2 shedding in PLHIV who were not virally suppressed suggests that prioritised vaccination of individuals in these groups could impact community transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cheryl Cohen
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Jackie Kleynhans
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Anne von Gottberg
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Meredith L McMorrow
- Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Nicole Wolter
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Jinal N. Bhiman
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Jocelyn Moyes
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Mignon du Plessis
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Maimuna Carrim
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Pathology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Amelia Buys
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Neil A Martinson
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, MRC Soweto Matlosana Collaborating Centre for HIV/AIDS and TB, University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa
- DST/NRF Centre of Excellence for Biomedical Tuberculosis Research, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- Johns Hopkins University Center for TB Research, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Kathleen Kahn
- MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), Faculty of Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Stephen Tollman
- MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), Faculty of Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Limakatso Lebina
- Perinatal HIV Research Unit, MRC Soweto Matlosana Collaborating Centre for HIV/AIDS and TB, University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
| | - Floidy Wafawanaka
- MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), Faculty of Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Jacques du Toit
- MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), Faculty of Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Francesc Xavier Gómez-Olivé
- MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), Faculty of Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Fatimah S. Dawood
- Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Thulisa Mkhencele
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Kaiyun Sun
- Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Cécile Viboud
- Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | | | - Stefano Tempia
- Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
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Terrier O, Si-Tahar M, Ducatez M, Chevalier C, Pizzorno A, Le Goffic R, Crépin T, Simon G, Naffakh N. Influenza viruses and coronaviruses: Knowns, unknowns, and common research challenges. PLoS Pathog 2021; 17:e1010106. [PMID: 34969061 PMCID: PMC8718010 DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1010106] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
The development of safe and effective vaccines in a record time after the emergence of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a remarkable achievement, partly based on the experience gained from multiple viral outbreaks in the past decades. However, the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis also revealed weaknesses in the global pandemic response and large gaps that remain in our knowledge of the biology of coronaviruses (CoVs) and influenza viruses, the 2 major respiratory viruses with pandemic potential. Here, we review current knowns and unknowns of influenza viruses and CoVs, and we highlight common research challenges they pose in 3 areas: the mechanisms of viral emergence and adaptation to humans, the physiological and molecular determinants of disease severity, and the development of control strategies. We outline multidisciplinary approaches and technological innovations that need to be harnessed in order to improve preparedeness to the next pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Olivier Terrier
- CNRS GDR2073 ResaFlu, Groupement de Recherche sur les Virus Influenza, France
- CIRI, Centre International de Recherche en Infectiologie (Team VirPath), Inserm U1111, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, CNRS UMR5308, ENS de Lyon, Lyon, France
| | - Mustapha Si-Tahar
- CNRS GDR2073 ResaFlu, Groupement de Recherche sur les Virus Influenza, France
- Inserm U1100, Research Center for Respiratory Diseases (CEPR), Université de Tours, Tours, France
| | - Mariette Ducatez
- CNRS GDR2073 ResaFlu, Groupement de Recherche sur les Virus Influenza, France
- IHAP, UMR1225, Université de Toulouse, ENVT, INRAE, Toulouse, France
| | - Christophe Chevalier
- CNRS GDR2073 ResaFlu, Groupement de Recherche sur les Virus Influenza, France
- Université Paris-Saclay, UVSQ, INRAE, VIM, Equipe Virus Influenza, Jouy-en-Josas, France
| | - Andrés Pizzorno
- CNRS GDR2073 ResaFlu, Groupement de Recherche sur les Virus Influenza, France
- CIRI, Centre International de Recherche en Infectiologie (Team VirPath), Inserm U1111, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, CNRS UMR5308, ENS de Lyon, Lyon, France
| | - Ronan Le Goffic
- CNRS GDR2073 ResaFlu, Groupement de Recherche sur les Virus Influenza, France
- Université Paris-Saclay, UVSQ, INRAE, VIM, Equipe Virus Influenza, Jouy-en-Josas, France
| | - Thibaut Crépin
- CNRS GDR2073 ResaFlu, Groupement de Recherche sur les Virus Influenza, France
- Institut de Biologie Structurale (IBS), Université Grenoble Alpes, CEA, CNRS, Grenoble, France
| | - Gaëlle Simon
- CNRS GDR2073 ResaFlu, Groupement de Recherche sur les Virus Influenza, France
- Swine Virology Immunology Unit, Ploufragan-Plouzané-Niort Laboratory, ANSES, Ploufragan, France
| | - Nadia Naffakh
- CNRS GDR2073 ResaFlu, Groupement de Recherche sur les Virus Influenza, France
- RNA Biology and Influenza Virus Unit, Institut Pasteur, CNRS UMR3569, Université de Paris, Paris, France
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49
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Vinh DN, Nhat NTD, de Bruin E, Vy NHT, Thao TTN, Phuong HT, Anh PH, Todd S, Quan TM, Thanh NTL, Lien NTN, Ha NTH, Hong TTK, Thai PQ, Choisy M, Nguyen TD, Simmons CP, Thwaites GE, Clapham HE, Chau NVV, Koopmans M, Boni MF. Age-seroprevalence curves for the multi-strain structure of influenza A virus. Nat Commun 2021; 12:6680. [PMID: 34795239 PMCID: PMC8602397 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26948-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/21/2020] [Accepted: 10/27/2021] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
The relationship between age and seroprevalence can be used to estimate the annual attack rate of an infectious disease. For pathogens with multiple serologically distinct strains, there is a need to describe composite exposure to an antigenically variable group of pathogens. In this study, we assay 24,402 general-population serum samples, collected in Vietnam between 2009 to 2015, for antibodies to eleven human influenza A strains. We report that a principal components decomposition of antibody titer data gives the first principal component as an appropriate surrogate for seroprevalence; this results in annual attack rate estimates of 25.6% (95% CI: 24.1% - 27.1%) for subtype H3 and 16.0% (95% CI: 14.7% - 17.3%) for subtype H1. The remaining principal components separate the strains by serological similarity and associate birth cohorts with their particular influenza histories. Our work shows that dimensionality reduction can be used on human antibody profiles to construct an age-seroprevalence relationship for antigenically variable pathogens.
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MESH Headings
- Algorithms
- Antibodies, Viral/blood
- Antibodies, Viral/immunology
- Geography
- Hemagglutinin Glycoproteins, Influenza Virus/immunology
- Humans
- Immunoglobulin G/blood
- Immunoglobulin G/immunology
- Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype/immunology
- Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype/physiology
- Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype/immunology
- Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype/physiology
- Influenza A virus/classification
- Influenza A virus/immunology
- Influenza A virus/physiology
- Influenza, Human/epidemiology
- Influenza, Human/immunology
- Influenza, Human/virology
- Models, Theoretical
- Seroepidemiologic Studies
- Time Factors
- Vietnam/epidemiology
- Virus Replication/immunology
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Affiliation(s)
- Dao Nguyen Vinh
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Nguyen Thi Duy Nhat
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
| | - Erwin de Bruin
- Department of Viroscience, Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Nguyen Ha Thao Vy
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Tran Thi Nhu Thao
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Huynh Thi Phuong
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Pham Hong Anh
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Stacy Todd
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
- Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK
- Tropical and Infectious Disease Unit, Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Liverpool, England
| | - Tran Minh Quan
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Nguyen Thi Le Thanh
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | | | | | | | - Pham Quang Thai
- National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Marc Choisy
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Tran Dang Nguyen
- Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
| | - Cameron P Simmons
- Institute of Vector Borne Disease, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Guy E Thwaites
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Hannah E Clapham
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | | | - Marion Koopmans
- Department of Viroscience, Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Maciej F Boni
- Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Major Overseas Programme, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
- Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
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50
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Pei S, Liljeros F, Shaman J. Identifying asymptomatic spreaders of antimicrobial-resistant pathogens in hospital settings. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2021; 118:e2111190118. [PMID: 34493678 PMCID: PMC8449327 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2111190118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/06/2021] [Accepted: 08/03/2021] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Antimicrobial-resistant organisms (AMROs) can colonize people without symptoms for long periods of time, during which these agents can spread unnoticed to other patients in healthcare systems. The accurate identification of asymptomatic spreaders of AMRO in hospital settings is essential for supporting the design of interventions against healthcare-associated infections (HAIs). However, this task remains challenging because of limited observations of colonization and the complicated transmission dynamics occurring within hospitals and the broader community. Here, we study the transmission of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), a prevalent AMRO, in 66 Swedish hospitals and healthcare facilities with inpatients using a data-driven, agent-based model informed by deidentified real-world hospitalization records. Combining the transmission model, patient-to-patient contact networks, and sparse observations of colonization, we develop and validate an individual-level inference approach that estimates the colonization probability of individual hospitalized patients. For both model-simulated and historical outbreaks, the proposed method supports the more accurate identification of asymptomatic MRSA carriers than other traditional approaches. In addition, in silica control experiments indicate that interventions targeted to inpatients with a high-colonization probability outperform heuristic strategies informed by hospitalization history and contact tracing.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sen Pei
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027;
| | - Fredrik Liljeros
- Department of Sociology, Stockholm University, 114 19 Stockholm, Sweden
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Karolinska Institutet, 171 77 Solna, Sweden
| | - Jeffrey Shaman
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027;
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