Evaluating and mitigating the potential indirect effect of COVID-19 on control programmes for seven neglected tropical diseases: a modelling study

Heterogeneity in elimination efforts could increase the risk of resurgence of lymphatic filariasis in Madagascar

BACKGROUND

Progress in lymphatic filariasis (LF) elimination is spatially heterogeneous in many endemic countries, which may lead to resurgence in areas that have achieved elimination. Understanding the drivers and consequences of such heterogeneity could help inform strategies to reach global LF elimination goals by 2030. This study assesses whether differences in age-specific compliance with mass drug administration (MDA) could explain LF prevalence patterns in southeastern Madagascar and explores how spatial heterogeneity in prevalence and age-specific MDA compliance may affect the risk of LF resurgence after transmission interruption.

METHODOLOGY

We used LYMFASIM model with parameters in line with the context of southeastern Madagascar and explored a wide range of scenarios with different MDA compliance for adults and children (40-100%) to estimate the proportion of elimination, non-elimination and resurgence events associated with each scenario. Finally, we evaluated the risk of resurgence associated with different levels of migration (2-6%) from surrounding districts combined with varying levels of LF microfilaria (mf) prevalence (0-24%) during that same study period.

RESULTS

Differences in MDA compliance between adults and children better explained the observed heterogeneity in LF prevalence for these age groups than differences in exposure alone. The risk of resurgence associated with differences in MDA compliance scenarios ranged from 0 to 19% and was highest when compliance was high for children (e.g. 90%) and low for adults (e.g. 50%). The risk of resurgence associated with migration was generally higher, exceeding 60% risk for all the migration levels explored (2-6% per year) when mf prevalence in the source districts was between 9% and 20%.

CONCLUSION

Gaps in the implementation of LF elimination programme can increase the risk of resurgence and undermine elimination efforts. In Madagascar, districts that have not attained elimination pose a significant risk for those that have achieved it. More research is needed to help guide LF elimination programme on the optimal strategies for surveillance and control that maximize the chances to sustain elimination and avoid resurgence.

Understanding how neglected tropical diseases programs in five Asia-Pacific countries adjusted to the COVID-19 pandemic: A qualitative study

BACKGROUND

Following the COVID-19 pandemic declaration, the World Health Organization recommended suspending neglected tropical diseases (NTD) control activities as part of sweeping strategies to minimise COVID-19 transmission. Understanding how NTD programs were impacted and resumed operations will inform contingency planning for future emergencies. This is the first study that documents how South-East Asian and Pacific NTD programs addressed challenges experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Data was collected through semi-structured interviews with 11 NTD Program Coordinators and related personnel from Fiji, Papua New Guinea, The Philippines, Timor-Leste, and Vanuatu. Constructivist grounded theory methods were drawn on to generate an explanation of factors that enabled or hindered NTD program operations during the COVID-19 pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted NTD programs in all countries. Some programs implemented novel strategies by partnering with services deemed essential or used new communications technology to continue (albeit scaled-back) NTD activities. Strong relationships to initiate cross-program integration, sufficient resources to implement adapted activities, and dedicated administrative systems were key enabling factors for recommencement. As the COVID-19 pandemic continued, exacerbating health resources scarcity, programs faced funding shortages and participants needed to find efficiencies through greater integration and activity prioritisation within their NTD units. Emphasising community-led approaches to restore trust and engagement was critical after widespread social anxiety and disconnection.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Sustaining effective NTD programs during a global emergency goes beyond managing immediate activity disruptions and requires attention to how NTD programs can be better ensconced within wider health programs, administrative, and social systems. This study underscores the importance of pre-emergency planning that reinforces NTD control programs as a critical service at all health systems levels, accompanied by governance arrangements that increase NTD staff control over their operations and strategies to maintain strong community relationships. Ensuring NTD units are supported via appropriate funding, personnel, and bureaucratic resources is also required.

Accelerating Progress Towards the 2030 Neglected Tropical Diseases Targets: How Can Quantitative Modeling Support Programmatic Decisions?

Over the past decade, considerable progress has been made in the control, elimination, and eradication of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Despite these advances, most NTD programs have recently experienced important setbacks; for example, NTD interventions were some of the most frequently and severely impacted by service disruptions due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Mathematical modeling can help inform selection of interventions to meet the targets set out in the NTD road map 2021-2030, and such studies should prioritize questions that are relevant for decision-makers, especially those designing, implementing, and evaluating national and subnational programs. In September 2022, the World Health Organization hosted a stakeholder meeting to identify such priority modeling questions across a range of NTDs and to consider how modeling could inform local decision making. Here, we summarize the outputs of the meeting, highlight common themes in the questions being asked, and discuss how quantitative modeling can support programmatic decisions that may accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets.

An Ensemble Framework for Projecting the Impact of Lymphatic Filariasis Interventions Across Sub-Saharan Africa at a Fine Spatial Scale

BACKGROUND

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Although mass treatments have led to huge reductions in LF prevalence, some countries or regions may find it difficult to achieve elimination by 2030 owing to various factors, including local differences in transmission. Subnational projections of intervention impact are a useful tool in understanding these dynamics, but correctly characterizing their uncertainty is challenging.

METHODS

We developed a computationally feasible framework for providing subnational projections for LF across 44 sub-Saharan African countries using ensemble models, guided by historical control data, to allow assessment of the role of subnational heterogeneities in global goal achievement. Projected scenarios include ongoing annual treatment from 2018 to 2030, enhanced coverage, and biannual treatment.

RESULTS

Our projections suggest that progress is likely to continue well. However, highly endemic locations currently deploying strategies with the lower World Health Organization recommended coverage (65%) and frequency (annual) are expected to have slow decreases in prevalence. Increasing intervention frequency or coverage can accelerate progress by up to 5 or 6 years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

While projections based on baseline data have limitations, our methodological advancements provide assessments of potential bottlenecks for the global goals for LF arising from subnational heterogeneities. In particular, areas with high baseline prevalence may face challenges in achieving the 2030 goals, extending the "tail" of interventions. Enhancing intervention frequency and/or coverage will accelerate progress. Our approach facilitates preimplementation assessments of the impact of local interventions and is applicable to other regions and neglected tropical diseases.

New Tools and Nuanced Interventions to Accelerate Achievement of the 2030 Roadmap for Neglected Tropical Diseases

The World Health Organization roadmap for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) sets out ambitious targets for disease control and elimination by 2030, including 90% fewer people requiring interventions against NTDs and the elimination of at least 1 NTD in 100 countries. Mathematical models are an important tool for understanding NTD dynamics, optimizing interventions, assessing the efficacy of new tools, and estimating the economic costs associated with control programs. As NTD control shifts to increased country ownership and programs progress toward disease elimination, tailored models that better incorporate local context and can help to address questions that are important for decision-making at the national level are gaining importance. In this introduction to the supplement, New Tools and Nuanced Interventions to Accelerate Achievement of the 2030 Roadmap for Neglected Tropical Diseases, we discuss current challenges in generating more locally relevant models and summarize how the articles in this supplement present novel ways in which NTD modeling can help to accelerate achievement and sustainability of the 2030 targets.

Impact of conflict on the elimination targets of lymphatic filariasis, schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminths in Cabo Delgado province, Mozambique

BACKGROUND

Mozambique has one of the highest burdens of neglected tropical diseases in Africa. Lymphatic filariasis, schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminths are being targeted for elimination as part of integrated mass drug administration campaigns. The progress made towards interruption of transmission has been affected by recent conflict in Cabo Delgado province. The aim of this paper was to determine the potential impact of this crisis on the neglected tropical diseases programme and the challenges in reaching the elimination goals of 2030.

METHODOLOGY

A desk-based secondary data analysis was conducted on publicly available sources of neglected tropical diseases, conflict incidents, internally displaced persons and geographical access between 2020 and 2022. Data were summarised and mapped using GIS software. A combined risk stratified assessment at district level was developed with five classifications i) Very high-risk; ii) High-risk; iii) Medium to high-risk; iv) Medium risk; and v) Not at risk due to conflict absence but co-endemic.

RESULTS

Lymphatic filariasis, schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminths were co-endemic in 115 out of 156 (74%) districts. Between 2020 and 2022 a total of 1,653 conflict-related incidents were reported, most of them in Cabo Delgado province (n = 1,397, 85%). A five-fold increase of internally displaced persons was recorded from April 2020 (n = 172,186) to November 2022 (n = 935,130). Geographical accessibility also deteriorated across the province with an increase from five (29%) in 2021 to seven (41%) districts in 2022 classified as hard-to-reach. The combined risk stratification identified that most districts in Cabo Delgado province had medium to high-risk (n = 7; 41%); very high-risk (n = 5, 29%); medium risk (n = 3, 18%); high-risk (n = 2, 12%).

CONCLUSION

Most of the districts of Cabo Delgado were considered to be at risk of not meeting the neglected tropical diseases road map 2030 targets due to the humanitarian crisis ongoing. There is the need for practical strategies and funding to overcome these hostile challenges.

A comprehensive assessment of deworming coverage among pregnant women in low- and middle-income countries, 2000-30

Background

Intestinal parasitic infections pose a significant global public health issue, particularly among pregnant women, who are generally more susceptible due to their elevated need for iron and nutrients. Deworming stands as a secure and efficacious public health intervention. The World Health Organization (WHO) set a target for the national deworming coverage rate among pregnant women at 75% by 2030. Nonetheless, the existing body of evidence on deworming among pregnant women in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) remains limited.

Methods

Based on Demographic Health Survey (DHS) data from 56 LMICs (n = 924 277) between 2000 and 2022, we used Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate trends of deworming coverage up to 2030 and to analyse determinant factors of deworming.

Results

We found that, despite progress in deworming coverage estimates for most countries, only 11 (<20%) are on track to achieve the WHO target coverage at the national level. Inequality gaps were projected to increase in most LMICs. A multilevel model showed that increased numbers of antenatal care, access to safe water, and a higher wealth index were associated with higher odds of deworming.

Conclusions

The progress on deworming coverage and inequality in many countries remains insufficient for achieving the WHO target by 2030. Additional investments in the health sector towards the expansion of deworming programmes, along with integration with existing health services, are urgently required, as is the introduction of effective policies and strengthening programmes within the context of the 'Leave No One Behind' agenda.

Elimination of lymphatic filariasis as a public health problem in Malawi

BACKGROUND

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a parasitic disease transmitted by mosquitoes, causing severe pain, disfiguring, and disabling clinical conditions such as lymphoedema and hydrocoele. LF is a global public health problem affecting 72 countries, primarily in Africa and Asia. Since 2000, the World Health Organization (WHO) has led the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) to support all endemic regions. This paper focuses on the achievements of the Malawi LF Elimination Programme between 2000 and 2020 to eliminate LF as a public health problem, making it the second sub-Saharan country to receive validation from the WHO.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The Malawi LF Programme addressed the widespread prevalence of LF infection and disease across the country, using the recommended WHO GPELF strategies and operational research initiatives in collaboration with key national and international partners. First, to stop the spread of infection (i.e., interrupt transmission) and reduce the circulating filarial antigen prevalence from as high as 74.4% to below the critical threshold of 1-2% prevalence, mass drug administration (MDA) using a two-drug regime was implemented at high coverage rates (>65%) of the total population, with supplementary interventions from other programmes (e.g., malaria vector control). The decline in prevalence was monitored and confirmed over time using several impact assessment and post-treatment surveillance tools including the standard sentinel site, spot check, and transmission assessment surveys and alternative integrated, hotspot, and easy-access group surveys. Second, to alleviate suffering of the affected populations (i.e., control morbidity) the morbidity management and disability prevention (MMDP) package of care was implemented. Specifically, clinical case estimates were obtained via house-to-house patient searching activities; health personnel and patients were trained in self-care protocols for lymphoedema and/or referrals to hospitals for hydrocoele surgery; and the readiness and quality of treatment and services were assessed with new survey tools.

CONCLUSIONS

Malawi's elimination of LF will ensure that future generations are not infected and suffer from the disfiguring and disabling disease. However, it will be critical that the Malawi LF Elimination programme remains vigilant, focussing on post-elimination surveillance and MMDP implementation and integration into routine health systems to support long-term sustainability and ongoing success.

SUMMARY

Lymphatic filariasis, also known as elephantiasis, is a disabling, disfiguring, and painful disease caused by a parasite that infected mosquitoes transmit to millions of people worldwide. Since 2000, the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) has supported endemic countries such as Malawi in south-eastern Africa, to eliminate the disease as a public health problem. The Malawi National LF Elimination Programme has worked tirelessly over the past two decades to implement the GPELF recommended strategies to interrupt the transmission with a two-drug regime, and to alleviate suffering in patients with lymphoedema and/or hydrocoele through morbidity management and disability prevention. Additionally, the LF Programme has collaborated with national and international stakeholders to implement a range of supplementary operational research projects to address outstanding knowledge gaps and programmatic barriers. In 2020, the World Health Organisation validated that Malawi had successfully eliminated LF as a public health problem, making it the second country in sub-Saharan Africa to achieve this, which is remarkable given that Malawi previously had very high infection rates. The LF Programme now remains vigilant, putting its efforts towards post-elimination surveillance and the continued implementation of care for patients with chronic conditions. Malawi's elimination of LF will ensure that future generations are not affected by this devastating disease.

Defining schistosomiasis hotspots based on literature and shareholder interviews

The World Health Organization (WHO) recently proposed a new operational definition which designates communities with ≥10% prevalence of Schistosoma spp. infection as a persistent hotspot, when, after at least two rounds of high-coverage annual preventive chemotherapy, there is a lack of appropriate reduction. However, inconsistencies and challenges from both biological and operational perspectives remain, making the prescriptive use of this definition difficult. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of the use of the term 'hotspot' across schistosomiasis research over time, including both literature searches and opinions from a range of stakeholders, to assess the utility and generalisability of the new WHO definition of a persistent hotspot. Importantly, we propose an updated definition based on our analyses.

A modelling analysis of a new multi-stage pathway for classifying achievement of public health milestones for leprosy

Several countries have come close to eliminating leprosy, but leprosy cases continue to be detected at low levels. Due to the long, highly variable delay from infection to detection, the relationship between observed cases and transmission is uncertain. The World Health Organization's new technical guidance provides a path for countries to reach elimination. We use a simple probabilistic model to simulate the stochastic dynamics of detected cases as transmission declines, and evaluate progress through the new public health milestones. In simulations where transmission is halted, 5 years of zero incidence in autochthonous children, combined with 3 years of zero incidence in all ages is a flawed indicator that transmission has halted (54% correctly classified). A further 10 years of only occasional sporadic cases is associated with a high probability of having interrupted transmission (99%). If, however, transmission continues at extremely low levels, it is possible that cases could be misidentified as historic cases from the tail of the incubation period distribution, although misleadingly achieving all three milestones is unlikely (less than 1% probability across a 15-year period of ongoing low-level transmission). These results demonstrate the feasibility and challenges of a phased progression of milestones towards interruption of transmission, allowing assessment of programme status. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.

Introduction to the special issue: challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs

Twenty neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are currently prioritised by the World Health Organization for eradication, elimination as a public health problem, elimination of transmission or control by 2030. This issue celebrates progress made since the 2012 London Declaration on NTDs and discusses challenges currently faced to achieve these goals. It comprises 14 contributions spanning NTDs tackled by intensified disease management to those addressed by preventive chemotherapy. Although COVID-19 negatively affected NTD programmes, it also served to spur new multisectoral approaches to strengthen school-based health systems. The issue highlights the needs to improve impact survey design, evaluate new diagnostics, understand the consequences of heterogeneous prevalence and human movement, the potential impact of alternative treatment strategies and the importance of zoonotic transmission. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.

Effects of the suspension of mass drug administration during the COVID-19 pandemic on onchocerciasis prevalence in the Bandjoun and Massangam health districts, West Region of Cameroon

Onchocerciasis is an infectious disease of public health and socio-economic importance in most parts of Sub-Saharan Africa. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of the suspension of implementation activities towards combating onchocerciasis in the Bandjoun and Massangam health districts in the West Region of Cameroon as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic. Data on socio-demographic and clinical characteristics were obtained using a structured questionnaire. All participants in both health districts were examined for the presence of clinical manifestations of onchocerciasis. In addition, two skin snips were obtained from the knee of each participant and examined for the presence of microfilaria. All data were categorized, coded, entered in a database, and analysed using SPSS version 23.0. A total of 229 participants in the Bandjoun health district and 378 in the Massangam health district were recruited for the study. In both health districts, there was no significant difference between male and female participants in terms of the clinical manifestations of onchocerciasis. The prevalence of nodules was 8.7% in the Bandjoun health district and 20.6% in the Massangam health district while the prevalence of microfilaria carriers in Bandjoun and Massangam health districts was 3.5% and 3.7%, respectively. Except for the Tsesse and Lemgo communities in the Bandjoun health district, there was a reduction in the prevalence of microfilaria in the communities that were studied when compared to previous data obtained before the disruption of control programmes activities. Overall, in both health districts, elderly individuals bear the largest burden of onchocerciasis. Based on the results obtained, we conclude that the temporary suspension of Neglected Tropical Disease control programme activities by the World Head Organization as a result of COVID-19 may have resulted to recrudescence of O. volvulus transmission in hypoendemic communities in the Bandjoun health district.

Scoping review of modelling studies assessing the impact of disruptions to essential health services during COVID-19

BACKGROUND

Studies assessing the indirect impact of COVID-19 using mathematical models have increased in recent years. This scoping review aims to identify modelling studies assessing the potential impact of disruptions to essential health services caused by COVID-19 and to summarise the characteristics of disruption and the models used to assess the disruptions.

METHODS

Eligible studies were included if they used any models to assess the impact of COVID-19 disruptions on any health services. Articles published from January 2020 to December 2022 were identified from PubMed, Embase and CINAHL, using detailed searches with key concepts including COVID-19, modelling and healthcare disruptions. Two reviewers independently extracted the data in four domains. A descriptive analysis of the included studies was performed under the format of a narrative report.

RESULTS

This scoping review has identified a total of 52 modelling studies that employed several models (n=116) to assess the potential impact of disruptions to essential health services. The majority of the models were simulation models (n=86; 74.1%). Studies covered a wide range of health conditions from infectious diseases to non-communicable diseases. COVID-19 has been reported to disrupt supply of health services, demand for health services and social change affecting factors that influence health. The most common outcomes reported in the studies were clinical outcomes such as mortality and morbidity. Twenty-five studies modelled various mitigation strategies; maintaining critical services by ensuring resources and access to services are found to be a priority for reducing the overall impact.

CONCLUSION

A number of models were used to assess the potential impact of disruptions to essential health services on various outcomes. There is a need for collaboration among stakeholders to enhance the usefulness of any modelling. Future studies should consider disparity issues for more comprehensive findings that could ultimately facilitate policy decision-making to maximise benefits to all.

Tackling Sleeping Sickness: Current and Promising Therapeutics and Treatment Strategies

Human African trypanosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease caused by the extracellular protozoan parasite Trypanosoma brucei, and targeted for eradication by 2030. The COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the lengthening of the proposed time frame for eliminating human African trypanosomiasis as control programs were interrupted. Armed with extensive antigenic variation and the depletion of the B cell population during an infectious cycle, attempts to develop a vaccine have remained unachievable. With the absence of a vaccine, control of the disease has relied heavily on intensive screening measures and the use of drugs. The chemotherapeutics previously available for disease management were plagued by issues such as toxicity, resistance, and difficulty in administration. The approval of the latest and first oral drug, fexinidazole, is a major chemotherapeutic achievement for the treatment of human African trypanosomiasis in the past few decades. Timely and accurate diagnosis is essential for effective treatment, while poor compliance and resistance remain outstanding challenges. Drug discovery is on-going, and herein we review the recent advances in anti-trypanosomal drug discovery, including novel potential drug targets. The numerous challenges associated with disease eradication will also be addressed.