Projected time to elimination of cervical cancer in the USA: a comparative modelling study

Strategies to accelerate the elimination of cervical cancer in British Columbia, Canada: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

To eliminate cervical cancer in Canada by 2040, defined as an annual age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) lower than 4.0 per 100 000 women, the Canadian Partnership Against Cancer (CPAC) identified 3 priorities for action: increasing human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine coverage, implementing HPV-based screening and increasing screening participation, and improving follow-up after abnormal screen results. Our objective was to explore the impact of these priorities on the projected time to elimination of cervical cancer in British Columbia.

METHODS

We used OncoSim-Cervical, a microsimulation model led and supported by CPAC and developed by Statistics Canada that simulates HPV transmission and the natural history of cervical cancer for the Canadian population. We updated model parameters to reflect BC's historical participation rates and program design. We simulated the transition to HPV-based screening and developed scenarios to explore the additional impact of achieving 90% vaccination coverage, 95% screening recruitment, 90% ontime screening, and 95% follow-up compliance. We projected cervical cancer incidence, ASIR, and year of elimination for the population of BC for 2023-2050.

RESULTS

HPV-based screening at current vaccination, participation, and follow-up rates can eliminate cervical cancer by 2034. Increasing on-time screening and follow-up compliance could achieve this target by 2031. Increasing vaccination coverage has a small impact over this time horizon.

INTERPRETATION

With the implementation of HPV-based screening, cervical cancer can be eliminated in BC before 2040. Efforts to increase screening participation and follow-up through this transition could potentially accelerate this timeline, but the transition from cytology- to HPV-based screening is fundamental to achieving this goal.

Vaccination and screening strategies to accelerate cervical cancer elimination in Norway: a model-based analysis

BACKGROUND

Experts have proposed an 'EVEN FASTER' concept targeting age-groups maintaining circulation of human papillomavirus (HPV). We explored effects of the vaccination component of these proposals compared with cervical cancer (CC) screening-based interventions on age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) and CC elimination (<4 cases/100,000) timing in Norway.

METHODS

We used a model-based approach to evaluate HPV vaccination and CC screening scenarios compared with a status-quo scenario reflecting previous vaccination and screening. For cohorts ages 25-30 years, we examined 6 vaccination scenarios that incrementally increased vaccination coverage from current cohort-specific rates. Each vaccination scenario was coupled with three screening strategies that varied screening frequency. Additionally, we included 4 scenarios that alternatively increased screening adherence. Population- and cohort-level outcomes included ASR, lifetime risk of CC, and colposcopy referrals.

RESULTS

Several vaccination strategies coupled with de-intensified screening frequencies lowered ASR, but did not accelerate CC elimination. Alternative strategies that increased screening adherence could both accelerate elimination and improve ASR.

CONCLUSIONS

The vaccination component of an 'EVEN FASTER' campaign is unlikely to accelerate CC elimination in Norway but may reduce population-level ASR. Alternatively, targeting under- and never-screeners may both eliminate CC faster and lead to greater health benefits compared with vaccination-based interventions we considered.

Projected Time for the Elimination of Cervical Cancer Under Various Intervention Scenarios: Age-Period-Cohort Macrosimulation Study

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization aims for the global elimination of cervical cancer, necessitating modeling studies to forecast long-term outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

This paper introduces a macrosimulation framework using age-period-cohort modeling and population attributable fractions to predict the timeline for eliminating cervical cancer in Taiwan.

METHODS

Data for cervical cancer cases from 1997 to 2016 were obtained from the Taiwan Cancer Registry. Future incidence rates under the current approach and various intervention strategies, such as scaled-up screening (cytology based or human papillomavirus [HPV] based) and HPV vaccination, were projected.

RESULTS

Our projections indicate that Taiwan could eliminate cervical cancer by 2050 with either 70% compliance in cytology-based or HPV-based screening or 90% HPV vaccination coverage. The years projected for elimination are 2047 and 2035 for cytology-based and HPV-based screening, respectively; 2050 for vaccination alone; and 2038 and 2033 for combined screening and vaccination approaches.

CONCLUSIONS

The age-period-cohort macrosimulation framework offers a valuable policy analysis tool for cervical cancer control. Our findings can inform strategies in other high-incidence countries, serving as a benchmark for global efforts to eliminate the disease.

HPV self-sampling among women in the United States: preferences for implementation

PURPOSE

With the inclusion of primary HPV testing in 2018 U.S. Preventive Services Taskforce guidelines, at-home HPV self-sampling may provide a future option for cervical cancer screening, especially among hard-to-reach populations in the U.S. This study evaluated the association of implementation preferences with the willingness of at-home HPV self-sampling.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study in 2018 among U.S. women ages 30-65 years, without a hysterectomy (n = 812). The outcome was willingness to have at-home HPV self-sampling (yes/no). Primary predictor variables (i.e., information source, methods of payment, methods of sending or receiving self-sampling kits) measured self-sampling implementation preferences. Adjusted logistic regression identified associations with willingness to have at-home HPV self-sampling.

RESULTS

Participants who preferred receiving information from healthcare providers (OR = 2.64; 95% CI 1.54,4.52) or from media or other sources (OR = 2.30; 95% CI 1.51,3.48) had higher HPV self-sampling willingness than participants who did not prefer those sources. Participants who did not want to pay for self-sampling (OR = 0.21; 95% CI 0.14,0.32) or did not know if they would pay for self-sampling (OR = 0.35; 95% CI 0.22,0.54) had lower odds of HPV self-sampling willingness compared to participants willing to pay. Participants who did not know which method they preferred for receiving a self-sampling kit (OR = 0.15, 95% CI 0.07,0.31) or preferred delivering the sample to the lab themselves (OR = 0.59; 95% CI 0.36,0.96) had lower odds for self-sampling willingness compared to participants who preferred the mail.

CONCLUSION

Understanding the preferences of women regarding the implementation of HPV self-sampling can improve uptake in cervical cancer screening, especially among hard-to-reach populations.

Benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness of cervical screening, triage and treatment strategies for women in the general population

In 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) launched a strategy to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem. To support the strategy, the WHO published updated cervical screening guidelines in 2021. To inform this update, we used an established modeling platform, Policy1-Cervix, to evaluate the impact of seven primary screening scenarios across 78 low- and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) for the general population of women. Assuming 70% coverage, we found that primary human papillomavirus (HPV) screening approaches were the most effective and cost-effective, reducing cervical cancer age-standardized mortality rates by 63-67% when offered every 5 years. Strategies involving triaging women before treatment (with 16/18 genotyping, cytology, visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA) or colposcopy) had close-to-similar effectiveness to HPV screening without triage and fewer pre-cancer treatments. Screening with VIA or cytology every 3 years was less effective and less cost-effective than HPV screening every 5 years. Furthermore, VIA generated more than double the number of pre-cancer treatments compared to HPV. In conclusion, primary HPV screening is the most effective, cost-effective and efficient cervical screening option in LMICs. These findings have directly informed WHO's updated cervical screening guidelines for the general population of women, which recommend primary HPV screening in a screen-and-treat or screen-triage-and-treat approach, starting from age 30 years with screening every 5 years or 10 years.

Data gaps and opportunities for modeling cancer health equity

Population models of cancer reflect the overall US population by drawing on numerous existing data resources for parameter inputs and calibration targets. Models require data inputs that are appropriately representative, collected in a harmonized manner, have minimal missing or inaccurate values, and reflect adequate sample sizes. Data resource priorities for population modeling to support cancer health equity include increasing the availability of data that 1) arise from uninsured and underinsured individuals and those traditionally not included in health-care delivery studies, 2) reflect relevant exposures for groups historically and intentionally excluded across the full cancer control continuum, 3) disaggregate categories (race, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, gender, sexual orientation, etc.) and their intersections that conceal important variation in health outcomes, 4) identify specific populations of interest in clinical databases whose health outcomes have been understudied, 5) enhance health records through expanded data elements and linkage with other data types (eg, patient surveys, provider and/or facility level information, neighborhood data), 6) decrease missing and misclassified data from historically underrecognized populations, and 7) capture potential measures or effects of systemic racism and corresponding intervenable targets for change.

Adapting a model of cervical carcinogenesis to self-identified Black women to evaluate racial disparities in the United States

BACKGROUND

Self-identified Black women in the United States have higher cervical cancer incidence and mortality than the general population, but these differences have not been clearly attributed across described cancer care inequities.

METHODS

A previously established microsimulation model of cervical cancer was adapted to reflect demographic, screening, and survival data for Black US women and compared with a model reflecting data for all US women. Each model input with stratified data (all-cause mortality, hysterectomy rates, screening frequency, screening modality, follow-up, and cancer survival) was sequentially replaced with Black-race specific data to arrive at a fully specified model reflecting Black women. At each step, we estimated the relative contribution of inputs to observed disparities.

RESULTS

Estimated (hysterectomy-adjusted) cervical cancer incidence was 8.6 per 100 000 in the all-race model vs 10.8 per 100 000 in the Black-race model (relative risk [RR] = 1.24, range = 1.23-1.27). Estimated all-race cervical cancer mortality was 2.9 per 100 000 vs 5.5 per 100 000 in the Black-race model (RR = 1.92, range = 1.85-2.00). We found the largest contributors of incidence disparities were follow-up from positive screening results (47.3% of the total disparity) and screening frequency (32.7%). For mortality disparities, the largest contributor was cancer survival differences (70.1%) followed by screening follow-up (12.7%).

CONCLUSION

To reduce disparities in cervical cancer incidence and mortality, it is important to understand and address differences in care access and quality across the continuum of care. Focusing on the practices and policies that drive differences in treatment and follow-up from cervical abnormalities may have the highest impact.

Joint modeling HIV and HPV using a new hybrid agent-based network and compartmental simulation technique

Persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have a disproportionately higher burden of human papillomavirus infection (HPV)-related cancers. Causal factors include both behavioral and biological. While pharmaceutical and care support interventions help address biological risk of coinfection, as social conditions are common drivers of behaviors, structural interventions are key part of behavioral interventions. Our objective is to develop a joint HIV-HPV model to evaluate the contribution of each factor, to subsequently inform intervention analyses. While compartmental modeling is sufficient for faster spreading HPV, network modeling is suitable for slower spreading HIV. However, using network modeling for jointly modeling HIV and HPV can generate computational complexities given their vastly varying disease epidemiology and disease burden across sub-population groups. We applied a recently developed mixed agent-based compartmental (MAC) simulation technique, which simulates persons with at least one slower spreading disease and their immediate contacts as agents in a network, and all other persons including those with faster spreading diseases in a compartmental model, with an evolving contact network algorithm maintaining the dynamics between the two models. We simulated HIV and HPV in the U.S. among heterosexual female, heterosexual male, and men who have sex with men (men only and men and women) (MSM), sub-populations that mix but have varying HIV burden, and cervical cancer among women. We conducted numerical analyses to evaluate the contribution of behavioral and biological factors to risk of cervical cancer among women with HIV. The model outputs for HIV, HPV, and cervical cancer compared well with surveillance estimates. Model estimates for relative prevalence of HPV (1.67 times) and relative incidence of cervical cancer (3.6 times), among women with HIV compared to women without, were also similar to that reported in observational studies in the literature. The fraction attributed to biological factors ranged from 22-38% for increased HPV prevalence and 80% for increased cervical cancer incidence, the remaining attributed to behavioral. The attribution of both behavioral and biological factors to increased HPV prevalence and cervical cancer incidence suggest the need for behavioral, structural, and pharmaceutical interventions. Validity of model results related to both individual and joint disease metrics serves as proof-of-concept of the MAC simulation technique. Understanding the contribution of behavioral and biological factors of risk helps inform interventions. Future work can expand the model to simulate sexual and care behaviors as functions of social conditions to jointly evaluate behavioral, structural, and pharmaceutical interventions for HIV and cervical cancer prevention.

Geographic Variation in Late-Stage Cervical Cancer Diagnosis

Importance

There are stark disparities in cervical cancer burden in the United States, notably by race and ethnicity and geography. Late-stage diagnosis is an indicator of inadequate access to and utilization of screening.

Objective

To identify geospatial clusters of late-stage cervical cancer at time of diagnosis in Texas.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This population-based cross-sectional study used incident cervical cancer data from the Texas Cancer Registry from 2014 to 2018 of female patients aged 18 years or older. Late-stage cervical cancer cases were geocoded at the census tract level (n = 5265) using their residential coordinates (latitude and longitude) at the time of diagnosis. Statistical analysis was performed from April to September 2023.

Exposures

Census tract of residence at diagnosis.

Main Outcome and Measures

Late-stage cervical cancer diagnosis (ie, cases classified by the National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results summary stages 2 to 4 [regional spread] or 7 [distant metastasis]). A Poisson probability-based model of the SaTScan purely spatial scan statistics was applied at the census tract-level to identify geographic clusters of higher (hot spots) or lower (cold spots) proportions than expected of late-stage cervical cancer diagnosis and adjusted for age.

Results

Among a total of 6484 female patients with incident cervical cancer cases (mean [SD] age, 48.7 [14.7] years), 2300 (35.5%) were Hispanic, 798 (12.3%) were non-Hispanic Black, 3090 (47.6%) were non-Hispanic White, and 296 (4.6%) were other race or ethnicity. Of the 6484 patients, 2892 with late-stage diagnosis (mean [SD] age, 51.8 [14.4] years were analyzed. Among patients with late-stage diagnosis, 1069 (37.0%) were Hispanic, 417 (14.4%) were non-Hispanic Black, 1307 (45.2%) were non-Hispanic White, and 99 (3.4%) were other race or ethnicity. SaTScan spatial analysis identified 7 statistically significant clusters of late-stage cervical cancer diagnosis in Texas, of which 4 were hot spots and 3 were cold spots. Hot spots included 1128 census tracts, predominantly in the South Texas Plains, Gulf Coast, and Prairies and Lakes (North Texas) regions. Of the 2892 patients with late-stage cervical cancer, 880 (30.4%) were observed within hot spots. Census tract-level comparison of characteristics of clusters suggested that hot spots differed significantly from cold spots and the rest of Texas by proportions of racial and ethnic groups, non-US born persons, and socioeconomic status.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cross-sectional study examining geospatial clusters of late-stage cervical cancer diagnosis, place-based disparities were found in late-stage cervical cancer diagnosis in Texas. These findings suggest that these communities may benefit from aggressive cervical cancer interventions.

Overall and Cervical Cancer Survival in Patients With and Without Mental Disorders

Importance

Individuals with a mental disorder experience substantial health disparity and are less likely to participate in cervical screening and human papillomavirus vaccination. Additionally, this population may benefit less from tertiary cancer prevention.

Objective

To compare clinical characteristics and survival patterns between patients with cervical cancer with and without a preexisting diagnosis of a mental disorder at the time of cervical cancer diagnosis.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study obtained data from Swedish population-based (Swedish Cancer Register, Swedish Cause of Death Register, Swedish Total Population Register, Swedish Patient Register, and Swedish Longitudinal Integration Database for Health Insurance and Labor Market Studies) and quality registries (Swedish Quality Register of Gynecologic Cancer and Swedish National Cervical Screening Register) on patients with cervical cancer. Patients who were included in the analysis were identified using the Swedish Cancer Register and were diagnosed with cervical cancer between 1978 and 2018. The Swedish Patient Register was used to identify patients with mental disorders using codes from the International Classification of Diseases, Eighth Revision and Ninth Revision and the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision. Because data on clinical characteristics at the time of cancer diagnosis were available for only for part of the study population, 2 patient groups were created: those with cervical cancer diagnosed from 2002 to 2016 and all patients diagnosed with cervical cancer (1978-2018). Data analyses were carried out between March and September 2022.

Exposure

Clinical diagnoses of a mental disorder, including substance abuse, psychotic disorders, depression, anxiety, stress-related disorders, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, autism, and intellectual disability, prior to cervical cancer.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Death due to any cause or due to cervical cancer as ascertained from the Swedish Cause of Death Register.

Results

The sample included 20 177 females (mean [SD] age, 53.4 [17.7] years) diagnosed with cervical cancer from 1978 to 2018. In a subgroup of 6725 females (mean [SD] age, 52.2 [18.0] years) with cervical cancer diagnosed from 2002 to 2016, 893 (13.3%) had a preexisting diagnosis of a mental disorder. Compared with patients with no preexisting mental disorder diagnosis, those with a preexisting mental disorder had a higher risk of death due to any cause (hazard ratio [HR], 1.32; 95% CI, 1.17-1.48) and due to cervical cancer (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.07-1.42). These risks were lower after adjustment for cancer characteristics at the time of cancer diagnosis (death due to any cause: HR, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.06-1.34] and death due to cervical cancer: HR, 1.12 [95% CI, 0.97-1.30]). Risk of death was higher for patients with substance abuse, psychotic disorders, or mental disorders requiring inpatient care. Among patients with cervical cancer diagnosed from 1978 to 2018, the estimated 5-year survival improved continuously during the study period regardless of preexisting diagnosis of a mental disorder status. For example, in 2018, the estimated 5-year overall survival proportion was 0.66 (95% CI, 0.60-0.71) and 0.74 (95% CI, 0.72-0.76) for patients with and without a preexisting diagnosis of a mental disorder, respectively.

Conclusions and Relevance

Findings of this cohort study suggest that patients with cervical cancer and a preexisting diagnosis of a mental disorder have worse overall and cervical cancer-specific survival than patients without a preexisting mental disorder diagnosis, which may be partly attributable to cancer and sociodemographic characteristics at diagnosis. Hence, individuals with mental disorders deserve special attention in the tertiary prevention of cervical cancer.

Worth a Pound of Cure? Emerging Strategies and Challenges in Cancer Immunoprevention

Cancer immunoprevention applies immunologic approaches such as vaccines to prevent, rather than to treat or cure, cancer. Despite limited success in the treatment of advanced disease, the development of cancer vaccines to intercept premalignant states is a promising area of current research. These efforts are supported by the rationale that vaccination in the premalignant setting is less susceptible to mechanisms of immune evasion compared with established cancer. Prophylactic vaccines have already been developed for a minority of cancers mediated by oncogenic viruses (e.g., hepatitis B and human papillomavirus). Extending the use of preventive vaccines to non-virally driven malignancies remains an unmet need to address the rising global burden of cancer. This review provides a broad overview of clinical trials in cancer immunoprevention with an emphasis on emerging vaccine targets and delivery platforms, translational challenges, and future directions.

Global impact and cost-effectiveness of one-dose versus two-dose human papillomavirus vaccination schedules: a comparative modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

To eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem, the World Health Organization had recommended routine vaccination of adolescent girls with two doses of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine before sexual initiation. However, many countries have yet to implement HPV vaccination because of financial or logistical barriers to delivering two doses outside the infant immunisation programme.

METHODS

Using three independent HPV transmission models, we estimated the long-term health benefits and cost-effectiveness of one-dose versus two-dose HPV vaccination, in 188 countries, under scenarios in which one dose of the vaccine gives either a shorter duration of full protection (20 or 30 years) or lifelong protection but lower vaccine efficacy (e.g. 80%) compared to two doses. We simulated routine vaccination with the 9-valent HPV vaccine in 10-year-old girls at 80% coverage for the years 2021-2120, with a 1-year catch-up campaign up to age 14 at 80% coverage in the first year of the programme.

RESULTS

Over the years 2021-2120, one-dose vaccination at 80% coverage was projected to avert 115.2 million (range of medians: 85.1-130.4) and 146.8 million (114.1-161.6) cervical cancers assuming one dose of the vaccine confers 20 and 30 years of protection, respectively. Should one dose of the vaccine provide lifelong protection at 80% vaccine efficacy, 147.8 million (140.6-169.7) cervical cancer cases could be prevented. If protection wanes after 20 years, 65 to 889 additional girls would need to be vaccinated with the second dose to prevent one cervical cancer, depending on the epidemiological profiles of the country. Across all income groups, the threshold cost for the second dose was low: from 1.59 (0.14-3.82) USD in low-income countries to 44.83 (3.75-85.64) USD in high-income countries, assuming one dose confers 30-year protection.

CONCLUSIONS

Results were consistent across the three independent models and suggest that one-dose vaccination has similar health benefits to a two-dose programme while simplifying vaccine delivery, reducing costs, and alleviating vaccine supply constraints. The second dose may become cost-effective if there is a shorter duration of protection from one dose, cheaper vaccine and vaccination delivery strategies, and high burden of cervical cancer.

Age-Specific Trends of Invasive Cervical Cancer Incidence in British Columbia, Canada, 1971-2017

This study examined invasive cervical cancer (ICC) incidence trends in British Columbia (BC) by age and stage-at-diagnosis relative to World Health Organization ICC elimination targets (4 per 100,000 persons). Incident ICC cases (1971-2017) were obtained from the BC Cancer Registry. Annual age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) per 100,000 persons were generated using the direct method. ASIRs were examined among all ages 15+ years and eight age groups using Joinpoint Regression with the Canadian 2011 standard population. Standardized rate ratios (SRRs) compared stage II-IV (late) versus stage I (early) ASIRs by age (2010-2017). ICC ASIRs did not reach the elimination target. ASIRs declined from 18.88 to 7.08 per 100,000 persons (1971-2017). Stronger declines were observed among ages 45+ years, with the largest decline among ages 70-79 years (AAPC = -3.2%, 95% CI = -3.9% to -2.6%). Among ages 25-69 years, varying levels of attenuation in declining trends and stabilization were observed since the 1980s. SRRs indicated higher rates of late-stage ICC among ages 55+ years (SRR-55-69 years = 1.34, 95% CI = 1.08-1.71). Overall, ICC incidence declined in BC since 1971 but did not reach the elimination target. The pace of decline varied across age groups and increased with age. Continued efforts are needed to progress cervical cancer elimination among all age groups.

Health and economic impact of delaying large-scale HPV vaccination and screening implementation on cervical cancer in China: a modelling study

Background

Current uptake of HPV vaccination and screening in China is far below World Health Organization 2030 targets for cervical cancer elimination. We quantified health and economic losses of delaying large-scale HPV vaccination and screening implementation in China.

Methods

We used a previously validated transmission model to project lifetime health benefits, costs, effectiveness, and timeline for cervical cancer elimination of alternative scenarios, including combining HPV vaccination initiated from 2022 to 2030 with screening in different modalities and coverage increase rates, as well as screening alone. All women living or projected to be born in China during 2022-2100 were considered. We employed a societal perspective.

Findings

Regardless of vaccine type, immediate large-scale vaccination initiated in 2022 and achieving 70% coverage of HPV-based screening in 2030 (no-delay scenario) would be the least costly and most effective. Compared with the no-delay scenario, delaying vaccination by eight years would result in 434,000-543,000 additional cervical cancer cases, 138,000-178,000 deaths, and $2863-4437 million costs, and delay elimination by 9-10 years. Even with immediate vaccination, the gradual scale-up of LBC-based screening to 70% coverage in 2070 would result in 2,530,000-3,060,000 additional cases, 909,000-1,040,000 deaths, and $5098-5714 million costs compared with no-delay scenario, and could not achieve elimination if domestic 2vHPV or 4vHPV vaccines are used (4.09-4.21 cases per 100,000 woman in 2100).

Interpretation

Delaying large-scale HPV vaccination and/or high-performance screening implementation has detrimental consequences for cervical cancer morbidity, mortality, and expenditure. These findings should spur health authorities to expedite large-scale vaccine rollout and improve screening.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-031449 and INV-003174) and CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (CIFMS) (2021-I2M-1-004).

Strategies to eliminate cervical cancer in China

Cervical cancer is a widely distributed disease that is preventable and controllable through early intervention. The World Health Organization has identified three key measures, coverage populations and coverage targets to eliminate cervical cancer. The WHO and several countries have conducted model predictions to determine the optimal strategy and timing of cervical cancer elimination. However, specific implementation strategies need to be developed in the context of local conditions. China has a relatively high disease burden of cervical cancer but a low human papillomavirus vaccination rate and cervical cancer screening population coverage. The purpose of this paper is to review interventions and prediction studies for the elimination of cervical cancer and to analyze the problems, challenges and strategies for the elimination of cervical cancer in China.

The Role of Health Information Technology in Improving Awareness of Human Papillomavirus and Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Among U.S. Adults

Objective: Although human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines prevent cancer-causing HPV infections and cervical precancers, there is suboptimal awareness and limited global accessibility of HPV and HPV vaccine. Emerging evidence suggests that health information technology (HIT) may influence HPV-related awareness and improve vaccine adoption. The objective of this study was to evaluate the link between HIT and HPV-related awareness Methods: Data were obtained from 1,866 U.S. adults aged 18-45 years who completed the 2017 and 2018 Health Information National Trends Survey. We conducted multivariable logistic regression to analyze the association between HIT utilization and HPV-related awareness. Results: Awareness of HPV and HPV vaccine were 72.7% and 67.5%, respectively. Participants who used electronic means to look up health information (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 3.05; p = 0.001), communicate with health care provider (aOR = 1.68; p = 0.026), look up test results (aOR = 1.94; p = 0.005), and track health costs (aOR = 1.65; p = 0.04) were more likely to report HPV awareness than those who did not. Participants who used an electronic device to look up health information (aOR = 3.10; p = 0.003), communicate with clinicians (aOR = 1.72; p = 0.008), look up test results (aOR = 1.63; p = 0.021), and track health care charges (aOR = 1.90; p = 0.006) were more likely to report HPV vaccine awareness than those who did not. Discussion and Conclusion: Our findings suggest a positive association between HIT utilization and HPV-related awareness. Given the rapid and exponential increase in mobile technology access globally, these results are encouraging and offer a potential opportunity to leverage digital technology in primary cancer prevention for HPV-related cancers, especially in low- and middle-income countries with unsophisticated health infrastructures.

HPV pathogenesis, various types of vaccines, safety concern, prophylactic and therapeutic applications to control cervical cancer, and future perspective

Over 98% of cervical cancers (CC) are caused by regular infections with "high risk" genotype of the human papilloma virus (HPV). However, this is not always the causative factor. Therefore, production of HPV vaccinations represents a significant chance to minimize the risk of CC. Phase III studies for a number of preventative HPV vaccines based on L1-virus-like particle (VLPs) have just been completed and the preliminary results are very convincing. However, there are a lot of practical concerns that need to be resolved before the use of these vaccinations. These vaccines were challenged with obvious queries such as protection time, subject receiving vaccines, time of vaccination, and how to include them into ongoing screening programs. Although these vaccines were 90% effective at preventing HPV infection as these offered only modest advantages for the removal of pre-existing infections. New advancements in the creation of therapeutic vaccinations have been explored for further improvement and post-vaccination surveillance. Therapeutic vaccines attempted to boost cell-mediated immunities and these are detrimental to the infected cell as opposed to neutralizing antibodies (different from prophylactic vaccines).

An overview of cervical cancer epidemiology and prevention in the Baltic States

AIMS

To inform future Baltic States-specific policy analyses, we aimed to provide an overview of cervical cancer epidemiology and existing prevention efforts in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

METHODS

A structured desk review: we compiled and summarized data on current prevention strategies, population demography and epidemiology (high risk human papillomavirus (HPV) prevalence and cervical cancer incidence and mortality over time) for each Baltic State by reviewing published literature and official guidelines, performing registry-based analyses using secondary data and having discussions with experts in each country.

RESULTS

We observed important similarities in the three Baltic States: high burden of the disease (high incidence and mortality of cervical cancer, changes in TNM (Classification of Malignant Tumors) stage distribution towards later stage at diagnosis), high burden of high-risk HPV in general population and suboptimal implementation of the preventive strategies as low screening and HPV vaccination coverage.

CONCLUSIONS

Cervical cancer remains a substantial health problem in the region and the efforts in addressing barriers by implementing a four-step plan for elimination cervical cancer in Europe should be made. This goal is achievable through evidence-based steps in four key areas: vaccination, screening, treatment, and public awareness.

Detection of HPV16 viral load in L2 gene as a related predictor of cervical cancer among women in Dhi-Qar province by qRT-PCR

BACKGROUND

The most common infection among young women that increases the risk of developing cervical cancer (CC) is human papillomavirus (HPV). In this study, we are going to assess whether HPV16 DNA concentration helps indicate cervical cancer progression ,As well as for age groups and their relationship to cervical cancer.

METHODS

Present study included 93 adult females suffering from cervical cancer during the period from 2017 to 2020. Molecular detection of HPV was done using amplification of the L2 gene (minor capsid protein).

RESULTS

Present results showed that 60 (65%) of the patients from 93 cervical cancer cases were infected by HPV16 while only 5 (8%) of healthy patients from the control group were positive for HPV16. So, the current study revealed high HPV16 load in cervical cancer ranged from 1.09 × 10² IU/ml to 5.07 × 10³ IU/ml with a mean ± SD of viral load was 1043.25 ± 8.50 IU/ml while in healthy individuals very low viral load ranging from 88 IU/ml to 101 IU/ml and mean ± SD of viral load was 91.25 ± 2.90 IU/ml was reported.

CONCLUSION

HPV16 viral load is significantly associated with cervical carcinoma among women in Dhi-Qar Province.

Rapid elimination of cervical cancer while maintaining the harms and benefits ratio of cervical cancer screening: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and intensifying screening expedite cervical cancer (CC) elimination, yet also deteriorate the balance between harms and benefits of screening. We aimed to find screening strategies that eliminate CC rapidly but maintain an acceptable harms-benefits ratio of screening.

METHODS

Two microsimulation models (STDSIM and MISCAN) were applied to simulate HPV transmission and CC screening for the Dutch female population between 2022 and 2100. We estimated the CC elimination year and harms-benefits ratios of screening for 228 unique scenarios varying in vaccination (coverage and vaccine type) and screening (coverage and number of lifetime invitations in vaccinated cohorts). The acceptable harms-benefits ratio was defined as the number of women needed to refer (NNR) to prevent one CC death under the current programme for unvaccinated cohorts (82.17).

RESULTS

Under current vaccination conditions (bivalent vaccine, 55% coverage in girls, 27.5% coverage in boys), maintaining current screening conditions is projected to eliminate CC by 2042, but increases the present NNR with 41%. Reducing the number of lifetime screens from presently five to three and increasing screening coverage (61% to 70%) would prevent an increase in harms and only delay elimination by 1 year. Scaling vaccination coverage to 90% in boys and girls with the nonavalent vaccine is estimated to eliminate CC by 2040 under current screening conditions, but exceeds the acceptable NNR with 23%. Here, changing from five to two lifetime screens would keep the NNR acceptable without delaying CC elimination.

CONCLUSIONS

De-intensifying CC screening in vaccinated cohorts leads to little or no delay in CC elimination while it substantially reduces the harms of screening. Therefore, de-intensifying CC screening in vaccinated cohorts should be considered to ensure acceptable harms-benefits ratios on the road to CC elimination.

A model-based analysis of the health impacts of COVID-19 disruptions to primary cervical screening by time since last screen for current and future disruptions

We evaluated how temporary disruptions to primary cervical cancer (CC) screening services may differentially impact women due to heterogeneity in their screening history and test modality. We used three CC models to project the short- and long-term health impacts assuming an underlying primary screening frequency (i.e., 1, 3, 5, or 10 yearly) under three alternative COVID-19-related screening disruption scenarios (i.e., 1-, 2-, or 5-year delay) versus no delay in the context of both cytology-based and human papillomavirus (HPV)-based screening. Models projected a relative increase in symptomatically detected cancer cases during a 1-year delay period that was 38% higher (Policy1-Cervix), 80% higher (Harvard), and 170% higher (MISCAN-Cervix) for underscreened women whose last cytology screen was 5 years prior to the disruption period compared with guidelines-compliant women (i.e., last screen 3 years prior to disruption). Over a woman's lifetime, temporary COVID-19-related delays had less impact on lifetime risk of developing CC than screening frequency and test modality; however, CC risks increased disproportionately the longer time had elapsed since a woman's last screen at the time of the disruption. Excess risks for a given delay period were generally lower for HPV-based screeners than for cytology-based screeners. Our independent models predicted that the main drivers of CC risk were screening frequency and screening modality, and the overall impact of disruptions from the pandemic on CC outcomes may be small. However, screening disruptions disproportionately affect underscreened women, underpinning the importance of reaching such women as a critical area of focus, regardless of temporary disruptions.

Health impacts of COVID-19 disruptions to primary cervical screening by time since last screen: A model-based analysis for current and future disruptions

Background

We evaluated how temporary disruptions to primary cervical cancer (CC) screening services may differentially impact women due to heterogeneity in their screening history and test modality.

Methods

We used three CC models to project the short- and long-term health impacts assuming an underlying primary screening frequency (i.e., 1, 3, 5, or 10 yearly) under three alternative COVID-19-related screening disruption scenarios (i.e., 1-, 2- or 5-year delay) versus no delay, in the context of both cytology-based and HPV-based screening.

Results

Models projected a relative increase in symptomatically-detected cancer cases during a 1-year delay period that was 38% higher (Policy1-Cervix), 80% higher (Harvard) and 170% higher (MISCAN-Cervix) for under-screened women whose last cytology screen was 5 years prior to the disruption period compared with guidelines-compliant women (i.e., last screen three years prior to disruption). Over a woman's lifetime, temporary COVID-19-related delays had less impact on lifetime risk of developing CC than screening frequency and test modality; however, CC risks increased disproportionately the longer time had elapsed since a woman's last screen at the time of the disruption. Excess risks for a given delay period were generally lower for HPV-based screeners than for cytology-based screeners.

Conclusions

Our independent models predicted that the main drivers of CC risk were screening frequency and screening modality, and the overall impact of disruptions from the pandemic on CC outcomes may be small. However, screening disruptions disproportionately affect under-screened women, underpinning the importance of reaching such women as a critical area of focus, regardless of temporary disruptions.

Funding

This study was supported by funding from the National Cancer Institute (U01CA199334). The contents are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the National Cancer Institute. Megan A Smith receives salary support from the National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia (APP1159491) and Cancer Institute NSW (ECF181561). Matejka Rebolj is funded by Cancer Research UK (reference: C8162/A27047). James O'Mahony is funded by Ireland's Health Research Board (EIA2017054). Karen Canfell receives salary support from the National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia (APP1194679). Emily A. Burger receives salary support from the Norwegian Cancer Society.

Is 2045 the best we can do? Mitigating the HPV-related oropharyngeal cancer epidemic

INTRODUCTION

Oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) will be among the most common cancers in men by 2045 due to a rapid rise in human papillomavirus (HPV)-related OPC. Those who survive their cancer often suffer life-long treatment effects and early death. HPV vaccination could prevent virtually all HPV-related cancers but is not an effective preventive strategy for those already exposed. Without a dramatic increase in vaccine uptake in the U.S., HPV vaccination will have a negligible effect on OPC incidence through 2045 and no substantial impact until 2060. Additionally, targeted screening for earlier diagnosis may soon be feasible for those inadequately protected by vaccination.

AREAS COVERED

PubMed search for English-language articles related to incidence, screening, and prevention of HPV-related malignancies, focused on OPC in the U.S.

EXPERT OPINION

HPV-related OPC incidence will continue to increase for the foreseeable future with prophylactic vaccination offering no substantial public health impact for decades. Consequently, we must rapidly increase vaccination rates and develop screening methods to identify high-risk individuals. Such individuals would be eligible for potential preventive treatments and screening to diagnose early-stage HPV-related OPC allowing less morbid treatments. These methods will bridge the population into an era of decreasing incidence after vaccination takes effect.

Trends and Determinants in Uptake of Cervical Cancer Screening in Spain: An Analysis of National Surveys from 2017 and 2020

Cervical cancer rates have declined in industrialized nations as a result of cytology screening programs. However, there are still sizeable differences in screening adherence in Spain. This study aimed to identify the prevalence of cervical cancer screening among women in Spain, to analyze trends in that prevalence from 2017 and 2020 and to identify socio-demographic, health, and lifestyle factors related with adherence to this screening test. We conducted a cross-sectional study of 13,619 women aged 25−65 who participated in the 2017 Spanish National Health Survey and the 2020 European Health Survey for Spain. We used logistic regression to examine the relationship between socio-demographic, health and lifestyle factors and cervical cancer adherence. The prevalence of adherence was 73.18%. Additionally, there was a significant decrease in cervical cancer screening uptake from 2017 and 2020 among women aged 25−44 years (2017: 77.80%, 2020: 75.20%, p = 0.02), but an increase in the age group of 45−65 years (2017: 68.93%, 2020: 72.39%, p < 0.01) and in foreigners (2017: 64.29%, 2020: 72.29%, p < 0.01). Screening for cervical cancer is related with age, educational level, social class, insurance status, visits to the family doctor, alcohol consumption and free time physical exercise.

National experience in the first two years of primary human papillomavirus (HPV) cervical screening in an HPV vaccinated population in Australia: observational study

OBJECTIVE

To review the first two years of the primary human papillomavirus (HPV) cervical screening programme in an HPV vaccinated population.

DESIGN

Observational study.

SETTING

Australia.

PARTICIPANTS

3 745 318 women with a primary HPV test between 1 December 2017 and 31 December 2019; most women aged <40 years had previously been offered vaccination against HPV16 and HPV18.

INTERVENTIONS

Primary HPV screening with referral if HPV16 or HPV18 (HPV16/18) positive and triage with liquid based cytology testing (threshold atypical squamous cells-cannot exclude high grade squamous intraepithelial lesion) for women who were positive for high risk HPV types other than 16/18. A 12 month follow-up HPV test was recommended in triaged women with a negative or low grade cytology result, with referral if they tested positive for any high risk HPV type at follow-up.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Proportion of women who had attended for their first HPV screening test, tested positive, and were referred for colposcopy; and short term risk of detecting cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 2 or worse, CIN grade 3 or worse, or cancer.

RESULTS

54.6% (n=3 507 281) of an estimated 6 428 677 eligible women aged 25-69 had undergone their first HPV test by the end of 2019. Among those attending for routine screening, positivity for HPV16/18 and for HPV types not 16/18 was, respectively, 2.0% and 6.6% in women aged 25-69 (n=3 045 844) and 2.2% and 13.3% in highly vaccinated cohorts of women aged 25-34 (n=768 362). Colposcopy referral (ages 25-69 years) was 3.5%, increasing to an estimated 6.2% after accounting for women who had not yet had a 12 month repeat test. Cervical cancer was detected in 0.98% (456/46 330) of women positive for HPV16/18 at baseline, including 0.32% (89/28 003) of women with HPV16/18 and negative cytology. Women with HPV types not 16/18 and negative or low grade cytology at both baseline and 12 months were at low risk of serious disease (3.4% CIN grade 3 or worse; 0.02% cancer; n=20 019) but estimated to account for 62.0% of referrals for this screening algorithm.

CONCLUSIONS

Colposcopy referral thresholds need to consider underlying cancer risk; on this basis, women with HPV16/18 in the first round of HPV screening were found to be at higher risk regardless of cytology result, even in a previously well screened population. Women with HPV types not 16/18 and negative or low grade cytology showed a low risk of serious abnormalities but constitute most referrals and could be managed safely with two rounds of repeat HPV testing rather than one. HPV16/18 driven referrals were low in HPV vaccinated cohorts.

Towards the elimination of cervical cancer in low-income and lower-middle-income countries: modelled evaluation of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of point-of-care HPV self-collected screening and treatment in Papua New Guinea

Introduction

WHO has launched updated cervical screening guidelines, including provisions for primary HPV screen-and-treat. Papua New Guinea (PNG) has a high burden of cervical cancer, but no national cervical screening programme. We recently completed the first field trials of a screen-and-treat algorithm using point-of-care self-collected HPV and same-day treatment (hereafter self-collected HPV S&T) and showed this had superior clinical performance and acceptability to visual inspection of the cervix with acetic acid (VIA). We, therefore, evaluated the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and resource implications of a national cervical screening programme using self-collected HPV S&T compared with VIA in PNG.

Methods

An extensively validated platform (‘Policy1-Cervix’) was calibrated to PNG. A total of 38 strategies were selected for investigation, and these incorporated variations in age ranges and screening frequencies and allowed for the identification of the optimal strategy across a wide range of possibilities. A selection of strategies that were identified as being the most effective and cost-effective were then selected for further investigation for longer-term outcomes and budget impact estimation. In the base case, we assumed primary HPV testing has a sensitivity to cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 (CIN2+) + of 91.8% and primary VIA of 51.5% based on our earlier field evaluation combined with evidence from the literature. We conservatively assumed HPV sampling and testing would cost US$18. Costs were estimated from a service provider perspective based on data from local field trials and local consultation.

Results

Self-collected HPV S&T was more effective and more cost-effective than VIA. Either twice or thrice lifetime self-collected HPV S&T would be cost-effective at 0.5× gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio: US$460–US$656/life-years saved; 1GDPper-capita: US$2829 or PGK9446 (year 2019)) and could prevent 33 000–42 000 cases and 23 000–29 000 deaths in PNG over the next 50 years, if scale-up reached 70% coverage from 2023.

Conclusion

Self-collected HPV S&T was effective and cost-effective in the high-burden, low-resource setting of PNG, and, if scaled-up rapidly, could prevent over 20 000 deaths over the next 50 years. VIA screening was not effective or cost-effective. These findings support, at a country level, WHO updated cervical screening guidelines and indicate that similar approaches could be appropriate for other low-resource settings.

Evidence to support change of clinical pathway following colposcopy treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia in Canada

OBJECTIVES

Human papillomavirus (HPV) testing can be incorporated into the post-treatment pathway of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) to confirm disease-free status. To inform a post-treatment strategy based on risk of recurrence, we modelled disease and economic outcomes.

METHODS

The current Alberta, Canada, post-treatment care pathway-cytology testing with colposcopy assessment-was compared with 6 other scenarios incorporating cytology, HPV testing, or both tests at different time points in a modelling study based on a microsimulation program. Input parameter values for the screening participation, screening age groups, and follow-up options and test compliance for HPV, cytology, and colposcopy were varied, based on Alberta cervical cancer screening program data. Health outcomes over the short- and long-term were projected, which incorporated the increasing population-level coverage of HPV vaccination. Lifetime incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were used to evaluate economic outcomes and descriptive statistics compared with numbers of tests, visits, and procedures as well as changes in incidence and mortality rates between the scenarios.

RESULTS

At 5 years after implementation of the "HPV testing alone at 6 and 18 months" post-treatment pathway, the number of colposcopies dropped by 36% and the number of pre-cancer treatments, by 6%. Lifetime ICERs were CAD $6170 versus $248,495 per quality-adjusted life-year compared with the status quo pathway. Cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates decreased significantly and similarly in all scenarios.

CONCLUSION

Strategies that involve HPV testing in CIN post-treatment follow-up care are expected to be more cost effective with improved clinical outcomes than traditional cytology and colposcopy-based follow-up.

Impact of Delaying Effective and Cost-Effective Policy Decisions: An Example From Cervical Cancer Prevention in Norway

Introduction. Delayed implementation of evidence-driven interventions has consequences that can be formally evaluated. In Norway, programs to prevent cervical cancer (CC)—screening and treatment of precancerous lesions and prophylactic vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) infection—have been implemented, but each encountered delays in policy implementation. To examine the effect of these delays, we project the outcomes that would have been achieved with timely implementation of two policy changes compared with the de facto delays in implementation (in Norway). Methods. We used a multimodeling approach that combined HPV transmission and cervical carcinogenesis to estimate the health outcomes and timeline for CC elimination associated with the implementation of two CC prevention policy decisions: a multicohort vaccination program of women up to age 26 years with bivalent vaccine in 2009 compared with actual “delayed” implementation in 2016, and a switch from cytology to primary HPV-based testing in 2015 compared with “delayed” rollout in 2020. Results. Timely implementation of two policy changes compared with current Norwegian prevention policy timeline could have averted approximately 970 additional cases (range of top 10 sets: 830–1060) and accelerated the CC elimination timeline by around 4 years (from 2039 to 2035). Conclusions. If delaying implementation of effective and cost-effective interventions is being considered, the decision-making process should include quantitative analyses on the effects of delays.

Assessment of US Preventive Services Task Force Guideline-Concordant Cervical Cancer Screening Rates and Reasons for Underscreening by Age, Race and Ethnicity, Sexual Orientation, Rurality, and Insurance, 2005 to 2019

IMPORTANCE

Cervical cancer screening rates are suboptimal in the US. Population-based assessment of reasons for not receiving screening is needed, particularly among women from historically underserved demographic groups.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate changes in US Preventive Service Task Force guideline-concordant cervical cancer screening over time and assess the reasons women do not receive up-to-date screening by sociodemographic factors.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This pooled population-based cross-sectional study used data from the US National Health Interview Survey from 2005 and 2019. A total of 20 557 women (weighted, 113.1 million women) aged 21 to 65 years without previous hysterectomy were included. Analyses were conducted from March 30 to August 19, 2021.

EXPOSURES

Sociodemographic factors, including age, race and ethnicity, sexual orientation, rurality of residence, and health insurance type.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Primary outcomes were US Preventive Services Task Force guideline-concordant cervical cancer screening rates and self-reported primary reasons for not receiving up-to-date screening. For 2005, up-to-date screening was defined as screening every 3 years for women aged 21 to 65 years. For 2019, up-to-date screening was defined as screening every 3 years with a Papanicolaou test alone for women aged 21 to 29 years and screening every 3 years with a Papanicolaou test alone or every 5 years with high-risk human papillomavirus testing or cotesting for women aged 30 to 65 years. Population estimation included sampling weights.

RESULTS

Among 20 557 women (weighted, 113.1 million women) included in the study, most were aged 30 to 65 years (16 219 women; weighted, 86.3 million women [76.3%]) and had private insurance (13 571 women; weighted, 75.8 million women [67.0%]). With regard to race and ethnicity, 997 women (weighted, 6.9 million women [6.1%]) were Asian, 3821 women (weighted, 19.5 million women [17.2%]) were Hispanic, 2862 women (weighted, 14.8 million women [13.1%]) were non-Hispanic Black, 12 423 women (weighted, 69.0 million women [61.0%]) were non-Hispanic White, and 453 women (weighted, 3.0 million women [2.7%]) were of other races and/or ethnicities (including Alaska Native and American Indian [weighted, 955 000 women (0.8%)] and other single and multiple races or ethnicities [weighted, 2.0 million women (1.8%)]). In 2019, women aged 21 to 29 years had a significantly higher rate of overdue screening (29.1%) vs women aged 30 to 65 years (21.1%; P < .001). In both age groups, the proportion of women without up-to-date screening increased significantly from 2005 to 2019 (from 14.4% to 23.0%; P < .001). Significantly higher rates of overdue screening were found among those of Asian vs non-Hispanic White race and ethnicity (31.4% vs 20.1%; P = .01), those identifying as LGBQ+ (gender identity was not assessed because of a small sample) vs heterosexual (32.0% vs 22.2%; P < .001), those living in rural vs urban areas (26.2% vs 22.6%; P = .04), and those without insurance vs those with private insurance (41.7% vs 18.1%; P < .001). The most common reason for not receiving timely screening across all groups was lack of knowledge, ranging from 47.2% of women identifying as LGBQ+ to 64.4% of women with Hispanic ethnicity. Previous receipt of a human papillomavirus vaccine was not a primary reason for not having up-to-date screening (<1% of responses). From 2005 to 2019, among women aged 30 to 65 years, lack of access decreased significantly as a primary reason for not receiving screening (from 21.8% to 9.7%), whereas lack of knowledge (from 45.2% to 54.8%) and not receiving recommendations from health care professionals (from 5.9% to 12.0%) increased significantly.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This cross-sectional study found that cervical cancer screening that was concordant with US Preventive Services Task Force guidelines decreased in the US between 2005 and 2019, with lack of knowledge reported as the biggest barrier to receiving timely screening. Campaigns addressing patient knowledge and provider communication may help to improve screening rates, and cultural adaptation of interventions is needed to reduce existing disparities.

Adolescent Health Series: HPV infection and vaccination in sub-Saharan Africa: 10 years of research in Tanzanian female adolescents - narrative review

Cervical cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related morbidity and mortality in many sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, including Tanzania. Most cervical cancer cases worldwide are attributable to infection of the cervix with Human Papillomavirus (HPV), a vaccine-preventable sexually transmitted infection (STI). Over the past 10 years, we have conducted a programme of HPV research in pre-adolescents and adolescents in Mwanza, the second-largest city in Tanzania, which is situated in a malaria-endemic region. In this narrative review article, we summarise the contribution of our work, alongside work of others, to improve the understanding of HPV epidemiology in SSA and development of setting-appropriate, evidence-based intervention strategies. We present evidence for very high prevalence and incidence of HPV infection among female SSA adolescents around the time of sexual debut, describe risk factors for HPV acquisition, and discuss associations between HPV, HIV and other STIs, which are also highly prevalent within this population. We summarise findings from early clinical trials of HPV vaccines in SSA, the first of which was an immunogenicity and safety trial conducted in Mwanza, Tanzania, and Dakar, Senegal. Within the trial, we evaluated for the first time the potential impact of malaria and helminth infection on vaccine-induced antibody responses in Tanzanian girls. We describe research evaluating optimal HPV vaccine delivery strategies within this setting, perceived requirements for and barriers to vaccine implementation among key informants from LMIC, vaccine acceptability among girls and parents, and opportunities for co-delivery of interventions alongside HPV vaccination to an adolescent population. Finally, we discuss country-level barriers to vaccine uptake in LMIC, and ongoing studies in Tanzania and other SSA countries of reduced-dose HPV vaccination schedules that may alleviate cost and logistical barriers to vaccine implementation.

Impact of disruptions and recovery for established cervical screening programs across a range of high-income country program designs, using COVID-19 as an example: A modelled analysis

COVID-19 has disrupted cervical screening in several countries, due to a range of policy-, health-service and participant-related factors. Using three well-established models of cervical cancer natural history adapted to simulate screening across four countries, we compared the impact of a range of standardised screening disruption scenarios in four countries that vary in their cervical cancer prevention programs. All scenarios assumed a 6- or 12-month disruption followed by a rapid catch-up of missed screens. Cervical screening disruptions could increase cervical cancer cases by up to 5-6%. In all settings, more than 60% of the excess cancer burden due to disruptions are likely to have occurred in women aged less than 50 years in 2020, including settings where women in their 30s have previously been offered HPV vaccination. Approximately 15-30% of cancers predicted to result from disruptions could be prevented by maintaining colposcopy and precancer treatment services during any disruption period. Disruptions to primary screening had greater adverse effects in situations where women due to attend for screening in 2020 had cytology (vs. HPV) as their previous primary test. Rapid catch-up would dramatically increase demand for HPV tests in 2021, which it may not be feasible to meet because of competing demands on the testing machines and reagents due to COVID tests. These findings can inform future prioritisation strategies for catch-up that balance potential constraints on resourcing with clinical need.

Evaluation of Cervical Cancer Screening Uptake and Adherence Among Women Without Human Papillomavirus Vaccination in the US

This cross-sectional study compares uptake rates of cervical cancer screening and adherence among US women who were vaccinated for human papillomavirus vs those who were not vaccinated.

Projected Association of Human Papillomavirus Vaccination With Oropharynx Cancer Incidence in the US, 2020-2045

Importance

Oropharynx cancer (OPC) incidence has increased for several decades in the US. It is unclear when and how this trend will be affected by current HPV vaccination trends.

Objective

To assess the association of HPV vaccination with future OPC incidence in the US.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This population-based age-period-cohort analysis obtained OPC incidence data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program from 69 562 patients 34 to 83 years of age diagnosed with OPC. The HPV vaccination data were obtained from the National Immunization Survey-Teen (60 124 participants) and National Health Interview Survey (16 904 participants). Data were collected from January 1, 1992, to December 31, 2017. Age-period-cohort forecasting models projected expected 2018 to 2045 OPC incidence under a counterfactual scenario of no HPV vaccination and current levels of HPV vaccination, stratifying by sex. Data analyses were completed by December 2020.

Exposures

Age- and sex-specific cumulative prevalence of HPV vaccination in 2016 to 2017 projected forward.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Projected OPC incidence and number of OPC cases expected to be prevented by HPV vaccination.

Results

Under current HPV vaccination rates, between 2018 and 2045, OPC incidence is projected to decrease in younger individuals (36-45 years of age: from 1.4 to 0.8 per 100 000 population; 46-55 years of age: from 8.7 to 7.2 per 100 000 population) but continue to increase among older individuals (70-83 years of age: from 16.8 to 29.0 per 100 000 population). The association of HPV vaccination with overall OPC incidence through 2045 will remain modest (no vaccination vs vaccination: 14.3 vs 13.8 per 100 000 population in 2045). By 2045 HPV vaccination is projected to reduce OPC incidence among individuals 36 to 45 years of age (men: 48.1%; women: 42.5%) and 46 to 55 years of age (men: 9.0%; women: 22.6%), but among those 56 years or older, rates are not meaningfully reduced. Between 2018 and 2045, a total of 6334 OPC cases will be prevented by HPV vaccination, of which 88.8% of such cases occur in younger age (≤55 years) groups.

Conclusions and Relevance

According to the projections of this population-based age-period-cohort study, current HPV vaccination rates will have a limited association with overall OPC incidence through 2045 because older individuals who have not yet been vaccinated remain at high risk for OPC. However, reductions in OPC incidence should occur among young and middle-aged adults, the group at lowest risk of diagnosis. These findings forecast a continued shift in the landscape of OPC to an older population.

Reducing Poverty-Related Disparities in Cervical Cancer: The Role of HPV Vaccination

BACKGROUND

Near elimination of cervical cancer in the United States is possible in coming decades, yet inequities will delay this achievement for some populations. We sought to explore the effects of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination on disparities in cervical cancer incidence between high- and low-poverty U.S. counties.

METHODS

We calibrated a dynamic simulation model of HPV infection to reflect average counties in the highest and lowest quartile of poverty (percent of population below federal poverty level), incorporating data on HPV prevalence, cervical cancer screening, and HPV vaccination. We projected cervical cancer incidence through 2070, estimated absolute and relative disparities in incident cervical cancer for high- versus low-poverty counties, and compared incidence with the near-elimination target (4 cases/100,000 women annually).

RESULTS

We estimated that, on average, low-poverty counties will achieve near-elimination targets 14 years earlier than high-poverty counties (2029 vs. 2043). Absolute disparities by county poverty will decrease, but relative differences are estimated to increase. We estimate 21,604 cumulative excess cervical cancer cases in high-poverty counties over the next 50 years. Increasing HPV vaccine coverage nationally to the Healthy People 2020 goal (80%) would reduce excess cancer cases, but not alter estimated time to reach the near-elimination threshold.

CONCLUSIONS

High-poverty U.S. counties will likely be delayed in achieving near-elimination targets for cervical cancer and as a result will experience thousands of potentially preventable cancers.

IMPACT

Alongside vaccination efforts, it is important to address the role of social determinants and health care access in driving persistent inequities by area poverty.

Precision Prevention: The 2019 ASCCP Risk-Based Management Consensus Guidelines for Abnormal Cervical Cancer Screening Tests and Cancer Precursors

The approach to cervical cancer prevention has evolved significantly over the past two decades. HPV immunization has decreased the specificity of screening modalities and HPV-based testing has been replacing our previously successful morphology-only approach. Additionally, there is much more emphasis on providing precision prevention, rather than the previously used “one-fits-all” management strategies. A number of new biomarkers are entering clinical practice and being integrated into cervical cancer screening and management in order to enable a more personalized assessment of the risk for precancer/cancer for an individual patient. The 2019 ASCCP Risk-Based Management Consensus Guidelines expand on the concept of “equal management for equal risk”. They consider a patient’s history in addition to current test results to provide recommendations for increased surveillance/treatment in patients at higher risk for CIN3+ while minimizing interventions for lower-risk patients who have new versus persistent HPV infection. Clinical management decisions are based on immediate risk and 5-year risk estimates for CIN3+, which are determined by referencing an extensive risk table compiled by the National Cancer Institute (NCI). The course of action for a given patient is recommended by comparison of the risk in the risk database, to the predetermined clinical action thresholds. These guidelines address the need for simplification and offer some stability for the provider while being conducive to the incorporation of anticipated continued technologic advances in methods for cervical cancer prevention. Their enduring nature will allow for changes needed based on risk reduction as HPV vaccination uptake increases and vaccinated women reach screening age. Similarly, the design allows for the addition of new tests into the risk assessment calculations after their approval by applicable regulatory agencies and review/consensus approval by the ASCCP new technology and enduring guidelines workgroups. As cytopathologists, we must be familiar with the scientific advancements in primary and secondary prevention, evolving screening and management guidelines, and participate actively in the multidisciplinary approach for the prevention of cervical cancer.

Eliminating Cervical Cancer: Progress and Challenges for High-income Countries

In 2020, the World Health Organization launched a major initiative to eliminate cervical cancer globally. The initiative is built around the three key pillars of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, cervical screening and treatment, with associated intervention targets for the year 2030. The '90-70-90' targets specify that 90% of adolescent girls receive prophylactic HPV vaccination, 70% of adult women receive a minimum twice-in-a-lifetime cervical HPV test and 90% receive appropriate treatment for preinvasive or invasive disease. Modelling has shown that if these targets are met, the elimination of cervical cancer, defined as fewer than four cases per 100 000 women per annum, will be achieved within a century. Many high-income countries are well positioned to eliminate cervical cancer within the coming decades, but few have achieved '90-70-90' and many challenges must still be addressed to deliver these critical interventions effectively. This review considers the current status of cervical cancer control in relation to each of the three elimination pillars in high-income countries and discusses some of the developments that will assist countries in reaching these ambitious targets by 2030.

Attitudes of transgender men and non-binary people to cervical screening: a cross-sectional mixed-methods study in the UK

Background

Transgender men and non-binary people assigned female at birth (TMNB) who have not had surgery to remove the cervix are recommended to undertake cervical screening with the same frequency as cisgender women, but evidence suggests that TMNB have lower odds of lifetime and up-to-date cervical screening uptake.

Aim

To understand the attitudes towards and preferences for cervical screening among UK-based TMNB.

Design and setting

Cross-sectional survey of TMNB at an NHS gender identity clinic (GIC) and an NHS sexual health service specialising in care of transgender people.

Method

Recruitment was via email invitations to patients of the GIC and sexual health service. Inclusion criteria were: female sex assigned at birth; transgender man, masculine, or non-binary gender identity; aged ≥18 years; and UK resident. Quantitative results were analysed using descriptive statistics, and free-text comments were analysed thematically.

Results

In total there were 137 participants; 80% identified as transmasculine,18% as non-binary, and the remaining participants reported other noncisgender identities. Sixty-four participants (47%) were eligible for cervical screening and 37 (58%) of those had been screened. Only 34 (53%) of those eligible felt they had sufficient information about cervical screening. Just over half (n = 71/134, 53%) stated they would like the option to self-swab for high-risk human papillomavirus. Only half (n = 68/134, 51%) of participants were in favour of an automatic invitation for cervical screening. Thematic analysis identified a number of additional barriers to and facilitators of screening.

Conclusion

TMNB have identified numerous potential areas for change that may improve cervical screening uptake and patient experience.

Small cell carcinoma as an independent prognostic factor for cervical cancer patients: a population-based analysis

Aim: To compare cervical small cell carcinoma (SmCC) with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) in patient characteristics and survival outcomes. Methods: Cervical SmCC and SCC patients in Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database from 2004 to 2015 were enrolled. Propensity-score matching analysis (PSM) paired subjects with similar background variables. Cox regression, Kaplan-Meier and stratified analyses were conducted before and after PSM. Results: Cervical SmCC patients showed a higher rate of larger tumor size, advanced grade disease, lymph node involvement and distant metastasis (p < 0.001). Before and after PSM, SmCC histology and advanced Federation International of Gynecology and Obstetrics stages (p < 0.001) were principal prognostic factors of survival, and cervical SmCC was associated with worse survival in all stages (stage I-IV). Conclusion: SmCC was an independent poor prognostic factor in cervical cancer patients.

Human Papilloma Virus Vaccination

Human papilloma virus (HPV) is the most common sexually transmitted infection worldwide causing a variety of benign and malignant conditions. A significant portion of the global population is infected with HPV, with the virus attributed to causing up to 5% of cancers worldwide. Bivalent, quadrivalent, and nine-valent vaccinations exist to aid in the prevention of these diseases and have been proven to be effective at preventing both benign and malignant disease. While vaccination is readily accessible in more developed countries, barriers exist to worldwide distribution and acceptance of vaccination. Vaccination and screening of HPV infection when used in combination are proven and predicted to decrease HPV related pathology. Improvements in vaccination formulations, for treatment as well as prevention, are actively being sought from a variety of mechanisms. Despite these advancements, and the data supporting their efficacy, there has been substantial delay in obtaining adequate vaccination coverage. In reviewing these challenges and looking forward to new vaccine development—especially within the current pandemic—it is clear from the challenges of HPV we require methods to more effectively encourage vaccination, ways to dispel vaccination myths as they occur, and implement better processes for vaccine distribution globally.

Vaccines for immunoprevention of cancer

The immunoprevention of cancer and cancer recurrence is an important area of concern for the scientific community and society as a whole. Researchers have been working for decades to develop vaccines with the potential to alleviate these health care and economic burdens. So far, vaccines have made more progress in preventing cancer than in eliminating already established cancer. In particular, vaccines targeting oncogenic viruses, such as the human papillomavirus and the hepatitis B virus, are exceptional examples of successful prevention of virus-associated cancers, such as cervical cancer and hepatocellular carcinoma. Cancer-preventive vaccines targeting nonviral antigens, such as tumor-associated antigens and neoantigens, are also being extensively tested. Here, we review the currently approved preventive cancer vaccines; discuss the challenges in this field by covering ongoing preclinical and clinical human trials in various cancers; and address various issues related to maximizing cancer vaccine benefit.

Impact of COVID-19-related care disruptions on cervical cancer screening in the United States

OBJECTIVES

To quantify the secondary impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic disruptions to cervical cancer screening in the United States, stratified by step in the screening process and primary test modality, on cervical cancer burden.

METHODS

We conducted a comparative model-based analysis using three independent NCI Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network cervical models to quantify the impact of eight alternative COVID-19-related screening disruption scenarios compared to a scenario of no disruptions. Scenarios varied by the duration of the disruption (6 or 24 months), steps in the screening process being disrupted (primary screening, surveillance, colposcopy, excisional treatment), and primary screening modality (cytology alone or cytology plus human papillomavirus "cotesting").

RESULTS

The models consistently showed that COVID-19-related disruptions yield small net increases in cervical cancer cases by 2027, which are greater for women previously screened with cytology compared with cotesting. When disruptions affected all four steps in the screening process under cytology-based screening, there were an additional 5-7 and 38-45 cases per one million screened for 6- and 24-month disruptions, respectively. In contrast, under cotesting, there were additional 4-5 and 35-45 cases per one million screened for 6- and 24-month disruptions, respectively. The majority (58-79%) of the projected increases in cases under cotesting were due to disruptions to surveillance, colposcopies, or excisional treatment, rather than to primary screening.

CONCLUSIONS

Women in need of surveillance, colposcopies, or excisional treatment, or whose last primary screen did not involve human papillomavirus testing, may comprise priority groups for reintroductions.

Achieving cervical cancer elimination among Indigenous women

Achieving the World Health Organisation (WHO) cervical cancer elimination target of fewer than four new cases per 100,000 woman-years requires scaling up HPV vaccination of girls, cervical screening, and pre-cancer and cancer treatment. We reviewed data from four high-income colonised countries (Australia, Canada, Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ), and the United States (US)) to identify how each is currently performing compared to the cervical cancer incidence elimination and triple-intervention targets, nationally and in Indigenous women. We also summarise barriers and enablers to meeting targets for Indigenous women. To achieve elimination, cervical cancer incidence must be reduced by 74% in Indigenous women in Australia, and 63% in Maori women in NZ; data were not published in sufficient detail to compare incidence in Indigenous women in Canada or the US to the WHO target. Only Australia meets the vaccination coverage target, but uptake appears comparatively equitable within Australia, NZ and the US, whereas there appears to be a substantial gap in Canada. Screening coverage is lower for Indigenous women in all four countries though the differential varies by country. Currently, only Australia universally offers HPV-based screening. Data on pre-cancer and cancer treatment were limited in all countries. Large inequities in cervical cancer currently exist for Indigenous peoples in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the US, and elimination is not on track for all women in these countries. Current data gaps hinder improvements. These countries must urgently address their systemic failure to care and provide health care for Indigenous women.

Impact and cost-effectiveness of strategies to accelerate cervical cancer elimination: A model-based analysis

Following the global call for action by the World Health Organization to eliminate cervical cancer (CC), we evaluated how each CC policy decision in Norway influenced the timing of CC elimination, and whether introducing nonavalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine would accelerate elimination timing and be cost-effective. We used a multi-modeling approach that captured HPV transmission and cervical carcinogenesis to estimate the CC incidence associated with six past and future CC prevention policy decisions compared with a pre-vaccination scenario involving 3-yearly cytology-based screening. Scenarios examined the introduction of routine HPV vaccination of 12-year-old girls with quadrivalent vaccine in 2009, a temporary catch-up program for females aged up to 26 years in 2016-2018 with bivalent vaccine, the universal switch to bivalent vaccine in 2017, expansion to include 12-year-old boys in 2018, the switch from cytology- to HPV-based screening for women aged 34-69 in 2020, and the potential switch to nonavalent vaccine in 2021. Introducing routine female vaccination in 2009 enabled elimination to be achieved by 2056 and prevented 17,300 cases. Cumulatively, subsequent policy decisions accelerated elimination to 2039. According to our modeling assumptions, switching to the nonavalent vaccine would not be considered 'good value for money' at relevant cost-effectiveness thresholds in Norway unless the incremental cost was $19 per dose or less (range: $17-24) compared to the bivalent vaccine. CC control policies implemented over the last decade in Norway may have accelerated the timeframe to elimination by more than 17 years and prevented over 23,800 cases by 2110.

Making the Best Use of Resources in Global Cancer Care

Inequitable access to high-quality cancer control and care remains one of the greatest public health challenges in countries at all resource levels. Core issues include the limited oncology health care workforce and equitable access to affordable (essential) cancer diagnostics, medicines, surgery, systemic therapies, and radiotherapy, compounded by existing social inequalities. To reduce cancer health disparities globally and subnationally, countries can enhance their capabilities to deliver high-quality, affordable care closer to where most people live. Decentralization and integration of health services can be part of the solution, offloading the strained capacity of tertiary facilities where possible and expanding cadres of trained providers to support some aspects of cancer prevention and control that require a lesser degree of specialization. The strategy to eliminate cervical cancer provides a salient example of a data-driven effort that optimizes resources to dramatically reduce one of the greatest cancer health disparities globally. Here, we highlight two responses to meet the challenge through greater engagement of the primary care workforce and by adoption of universal health care coverage to ensure access to cancer prevention.

Long-term effectiveness of the nine-valent human papillomavirus vaccine in Scandinavian women: interim analysis after 8 years of follow-up

A long-term follow-up (LTFU) of the nine-valent human papillomavirus (9vHPV) vaccine efficacy study in young women aged 16–26 years was initiated to evaluate if vaccine effectiveness for up to 14 years post-vaccination will remain above 90%. Vaccine effectiveness is measured as percent reduction in the incidence of HPV16/18/31/33/45/52/58-related high-grade cervical dysplasia in the LTFU cohort relative to expected incidence in a similar unvaccinated cohort. We report an interim analysis 8 years post-vaccination. Overall, 2029 participants from Denmark, Norway, and Sweden who received the 9vHPV vaccine during the clinical efficacy study continued into the LTFU study. National health registries were used to identify screening attendance and cervical pre-cancer/cancer diagnoses. Tissue samples were retrieved for HPV testing by PCR and pathology diagnosis adjudication. A control chart method was used to detect signals indicative of vaccine effectiveness waning below 90%. No new cases of HPV16/18/31/33/45/52/58-related high-grade cervical dysplasia were observed during the LTFU study period over 4084.2 person-years’ follow-up (per-protocol effectiveness population; n = 1448). Thus, there were no signals indicative of vaccine effectiveness waning below 90%. These observations show that the 9vHPV vaccine provides continued statistically significant protection through at least 6 years, with indications of continued effectiveness through 8 years.

Trial registration

Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT00543543, NCT02653118.