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Wang L, Liu J, Yin P, Gao Y, Jiang Y, Kan H, Zhou M, Ao H, Chen R. Mortality risk and burden of sudden cardiac arrest associated with hot nights, heatwaves, cold spells, and non-optimum temperatures in 0.88 million patients: An individual-level case-crossover study. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 949:175208. [PMID: 39097015 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175208] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2024] [Revised: 07/15/2024] [Accepted: 07/31/2024] [Indexed: 08/05/2024]
Abstract
Sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) is a global health concern, imposing a substantial mortality burden. However, the understanding of the impact of various extreme temperature events, when accounting for the effect of daily average temperature on SCA, remains incomplete. Additionally, the assessment of SCA mortality burden associated with temperatures from an individual-level design is limited. This nationwide case-crossover study collected individual SCA death records across all (2844) county-level administrative units in the Chinese Mainland from 2013 to 2019. Four definitions for hot nights and ten for both cold spells and heatwaves were established using various temperature thresholds and durations. Conditional logistic regression models combined with distributed lag nonlinear models were employed to estimate the cumulative exposure-response relationships. Based on 887,662 SCA decedents, this analysis found that both hot nights [odds ratio (OR): 1.28; attributable fraction (AF): 1.32 %] and heatwaves (OR: 1.40; AF: 1.29 %) exhibited significant added effects on SCA mortality independent of daily average temperatures, while cold spells were not associated with an elevated SCA risk after accounting for effects of temperatures. Cold temperatures [below the minimum mortality temperature (MMT)] accounted for a larger mortality burden than high temperatures (above the MMT) [AF: 12.2 % vs. 1.5 %]. Higher temperature-related mortality risks and burdens were observed in patients who experienced out-of-hospital cardiac arrest compared to those with in-hospital cardiac arrest. This nationwide study presents the most compelling and comprehensive evidence of the elevated mortality risk and burden of SCA associated with extreme temperature events and ambient temperatures amid global warming.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lijun Wang
- National Center for Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Jiangdong Liu
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Peng Yin
- National Center for Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Ya Gao
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Yixuan Jiang
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Haidong Kan
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Maigeng Zhou
- National Center for Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Hushan Ao
- Department of Anesthesiology, Fuwai Hospital, State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, National Center of Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
| | - Renjie Chen
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
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Seebauer S, Friesenecker M, Thaler T, Schneider AE, Schwarzinger S. Feeling hot is being hot? Comparing the mapping and the surveying paradigm for urban heat vulnerability in Vienna. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 945:173952. [PMID: 38901576 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173952] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2023] [Revised: 06/10/2024] [Accepted: 06/10/2024] [Indexed: 06/22/2024]
Abstract
With rising global temperatures, cities increasingly need to identify populations or areas that are vulnerable to urban heat waves; however, vulnerability assessments may run into ecological fallacy if data from different scales are misconstrued as equivalent. We assess the heat vulnerability of 1983 residents in Vienna by measuring heat impacts, exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity with mirrored indicators in the mapping paradigm (i.e. census tract data referring to the geographic regions where these residents live) and the surveying paradigm (i.e. survey data referring to the residents' individual households). Results obtained in both paradigms diverge substantially: meteorological indicators of hot days and tropical nights are virtually unrelated to self-reported heat strain. Meteorological indicators are explained by mapping indicators (R2 of 15-40 %), but mostly not by surveying indicators. Vice versa, experienced heat stress and subjective heat burden are mostly unassociated with mapping indicators but are partially explained by surveying indicators (R2 of 2-4 %). The results suggest that the two paradigms do not capture the same components of vulnerability; this challenges whether studies conducted in the respective paradigms can complement and cross-validate each other. Policy interventions should first define which heat vulnerability outcome they target and then apply the paradigm that best captures the specific drivers of this outcome.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sebastian Seebauer
- JOANNEUM RESEARCH Forschungsgesellschaft mbh, LIFE Institute for Climate, Energy Systems and Society, Waagner-Biro-Straße 100, 8010 Graz, Austria.
| | - Michael Friesenecker
- Institute of Landscape Planning, BOKU University, Peter-Jordan Straße 65, 1180 Vienna, Austria.
| | - Thomas Thaler
- Institute of Landscape Planning, BOKU University, Peter-Jordan Straße 65, 1180 Vienna, Austria; Population and Just Societies Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
| | - Antonia E Schneider
- Vienna University of Technology, Institute for Spatial Planning, Department of Public Finance and Infrastructure Policy, Karlsplatz 13, 1040 Vienna, Austria.
| | - Stephan Schwarzinger
- JOANNEUM RESEARCH Forschungsgesellschaft mbh, LIFE Institute for Climate, Energy Systems and Society, Waagner-Biro-Straße 100, 8010 Graz, Austria.
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Guo YT, Chan KH, Qiu H, Wong ELY, Ho KF. The risk of hospitalization associated with hot nights and excess nighttime heat in a subtropical metropolis: a time-series study in Hong Kong, 2000-2019. THE LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. WESTERN PACIFIC 2024; 51:101168. [PMID: 39229334 PMCID: PMC11367509 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101168] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2024] [Revised: 07/24/2024] [Accepted: 07/25/2024] [Indexed: 09/05/2024]
Abstract
Background Recent studies showed increased mortality risks after hot nights, but their effect on hospitalizations, especially in vulnerable populations, remains under-studied. Methods Daily hospitalization, meteorological (including hourly), and air pollution data were collected for the hot seasons (May-October) of 2000-19 in Hong Kong. We derived three hot-night metrics: HNday28 °C, daily minimum temperature ≥28 °C, the governmental definition of hot nights; HNe, hot night excess calculated by summing heat excess of hourly temperatures above 28 °C at night; and HNday90th, hot nights classified using the 90th percentile HNe (17.7 °C⋅h) as a cutoff. We fitted time-series regression with distributed lag nonlinear models to examine the associations of hot-night metrics with various hospitalizations. Findings During the 3680 study days, 5,002,114 non-cancer non-external (NCNE) hospitalizations were recorded. Half (1874) of the days experienced excess nighttime heat (HNe>0) with a mean (SD) of 8.0 (6.8) °C⋅h; 499 and 187 hot nights were identified by HNday28 °C and HNday90th, respectively. Extreme HNe (99th percentile vs 0 °C⋅h) was significantly associated with increased NCNE hospitalizations over lag 0-4 days by 3.1% [95% confidence interval: 1.5%, 4.8%] overall, with enhanced effects in elderly (5.3% [3.2%, 7.4%]), low-SES individuals (5.3% [2.8%, 8.0%]), and circulatory admissions (3.4% [0.2%, 6.8%]). HNday90th, reflecting extreme HNe, better identified hazardous hot nights than the official HNday28 °C. Interpretation Excessive nighttime heat is significantly associated with increased hospitalizations, particularly affecting the elderly and socioeconomically disadvantaged individuals. Nighttime heat intensity should be incorporated in defining hot nights with public health relevance. Funding British Heart Foundation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yi Tong Guo
- JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Ka Hung Chan
- Clinical Trial Service Unit and Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Oxford British Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Hong Qiu
- JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Eliza Lai-yi Wong
- JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Kin Fai Ho
- JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
- Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
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Patton E, Li W, Ward A, Doyle M. Wet bulb globe temperature from climate model outputs: a method for projecting hourly site-specific values and trends. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2024:10.1007/s00484-024-02776-5. [PMID: 39287640 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-024-02776-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/16/2024] [Revised: 08/05/2024] [Accepted: 08/31/2024] [Indexed: 09/19/2024]
Abstract
Increasing temperature will impact future outdoor worker safety but quantifying this impact to develop local adaptations is challenging. Wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is the preferred thermal index for regulating outdoor activities in occupational health, athletic, and military settings, but global circulation models (GCMs) have coarse spatiotemporal resolution and do not always provide outputs required to project the full diurnal range of WBGT. This article presents a novel method to project WBGT at local spatial and hourly temporal resolutions without many assumptions inherent in previous research. We calculate sub-daily future WBGT from GCM output and then estimate hourly WBGT based on a site-specific, historical diurnal cycles. We test this method against observations at U.S. Army installations and find results match closely. We then project hourly WBGT at these locations from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2100, to quantify trends and estimate future periods exceeding outdoor activity modification thresholds. We find regional patterns affecting WBGT, suggesting accurately projecting WBGT demands a localized approach. Results show increased frequency of hours at high WBGT and, using U.S. military heat thresholds, we estimate impacts to future outdoor labor. By mid-century, some locations are projected to average 20 or more days each summer when outdoor labor will be significantly impacted. The method's fine spatiotemporal resolution enables detailed analysis of WBGT projections, making it useful applied at specific locations of interest.
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Affiliation(s)
- Erik Patton
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, 27708, USA.
- Advanced Strategic Planning and Policy Program, Command and General Staff College, Ft Leavenworth, KS, 66027, USA.
| | - Wenhong Li
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, 27708, USA
| | - Ashley Ward
- Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment, and Sustainability, Duke University, Durham, NC, 27708, USA
| | - Martin Doyle
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, 27708, USA
- Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment, and Sustainability, Duke University, Durham, NC, 27708, USA
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He G, Lin Y, Hu J, Chen Y, Guo Y, Yu M, Zeng F, Duan H, Meng R, Zhou C, Xiao Y, Huang B, Gong W, Liu J, Liu T, Zhou M, Ma W. The trends of non-accidental mortality burden attributed to compound hot-dry events in China and its provinces in a global warming world. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2024; 191:108977. [PMID: 39216332 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108977] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2024] [Revised: 07/22/2024] [Accepted: 08/21/2024] [Indexed: 09/04/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Global warming has provoked more co-occurrence of hot extreme and dry extreme, namely compound hot-dry events (CHDEs). However, their health impacts have seldom been investigated. This study aimed to characterize CHDEs and assess its mortality burden in China from 1990 to 2100. METHODS CHDEs were defined as a day when daily maximum temperature > its 90th percentile and Standardized Precipitation Index < its 50th percentile. A two-stage approach, including a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and a multivariate meta-analysis, was used to estimate exposure-response associations of CHDEs with mortality in 358 counties/districts during 2006-2017 in China, which was then applied to assess the national mortality burden attributable to CHDEs from 1990 to 2100. FINDINGS We observed a significant increasing trend of CHDEs in China until mid-21st century, and then flatted, while the duration and intensity of CHDEs continuously increased across the 21st century. CHDEs were much riskier (ER=17.82 %, 95 %CI: 14.17 %-21.60 %) than independent hot events (ER=5.86 %,95 %CI: -0.04 %,12.45 %) or dry events (ER=0.07 %,95 %CI: -1.22 %, 1.38 %), and there was significantly additive interaction between hot events and dry events (AP=0.10,95 %CI: 0.04, 0.16). Females (ER=24.28 %, 95 %CI: 19.21 %-29.56 %), the elderly (ER=23.28 %, 95 %CI: 18.23 %-28.55 %), and people living in humid area (ER=18.98 %, 95 %CI: 15.08 %-23.02 %) had higher mortality risks than their counterparts. Mortality burden attributed to CHDEs significantly increased during historical observation and became stable since mid-21st century in China. INTERPRETATION CHDEs would significantly increase mortality with higher risk for females, the elderly and people living in humid areas. Mortality burden has significantly increased during historical observation and will keep relatively steady since mid-21st century.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guanhao He
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China
| | - Yi Lin
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China
| | - Jianxiong Hu
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China
| | - Yang Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
| | - Yanfang Guo
- Bao'an Chronic Diseases Prevent and Cure Hospital, Shenzhen 518100, China
| | - Min Yu
- Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310009, China
| | - Fangfang Zeng
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China
| | - Hailai Duan
- Climate Center of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou 510640, China
| | - Ruilin Meng
- Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
| | - Chunliang Zhou
- Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha 410005, China
| | - Yize Xiao
- Yunnan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming 650034, China
| | - Biao Huang
- Jilin Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changchun 130062, China
| | - Weiwei Gong
- Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310009, China
| | - Jiangmei Liu
- The National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Tao Liu
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China
| | - Maigeng Zhou
- The National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Wenjun Ma
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China.
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Xu H, Guo S, Shi X, Wu Y, Pan J, Gao H, Tang Y, Han A. Machine learning-based analysis and prediction of meteorological factors and urban heatstroke diseases. Front Public Health 2024; 12:1420608. [PMID: 39104885 PMCID: PMC11299116 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1420608] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2024] [Accepted: 07/08/2024] [Indexed: 08/07/2024] Open
Abstract
Introduction Heatstroke is a serious clinical condition caused by exposure to high temperature and high humidity environment, which leads to a rapid increase of the core temperature of the body to more than 40°C, accompanied by skin burning, consciousness disorders and other organ system damage. This study aims to analyze the effect of meteorological factors on the incidence of heatstroke using machine learning, and to construct a heatstroke forecasting model to provide reference for heatstroke prevention. Methods The data of heatstroke incidence and meteorological factors in a city in South China from May to September 2014-2019 were analyzed in this study. The lagged effect of meteorological factors on heatstroke incidence was analyzed based on the distributed lag non-linear model, and the prediction model was constructed by using regression decision tree, random forest, gradient boosting trees, linear SVRs, LSTMs, and ARIMA algorithm. Results The cumulative lagged effect found that heat index, dew-point temperature, daily maximum temperature and relative humidity had the greatest influence on heatstroke. When the heat index, dew-point temperature, and daily maximum temperature exceeded certain thresholds, the risk of heatstroke was significantly increased on the same day and within the following 5 days. The lagged effect of relative humidity on the occurrence of heatstroke was different with the change of relative humidity, and both excessively high and low environmental humidity levels exhibited a longer lagged effect on the occurrence of heatstroke. With regard to the prediction model, random forest model had the best performance of 5.28 on RMSE and dropped to 3.77 after being adjusted. Discussion The incidence of heatstroke in this city is significantly correlated with heat index, heatwave, dew-point temperature, air temperature and zhongfu, among which the heat index and dew-point temperature have a significant lagged effect on heatstroke incidence. Relevant departments need to closely monitor the data of the correlated factors, and adopt heat prevention measures before the temperature peaks, calling on citizens to reduce outdoor activities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hui Xu
- School of Management, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, China
| | - Shufang Guo
- School of Management, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, China
| | - Xiaojun Shi
- School of Management, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, China
| | - Yanzhen Wu
- School of Management, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, China
| | - Junyi Pan
- School of Management, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, China
| | - Han Gao
- School of Humanities, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, China
| | - Yan Tang
- School of Management, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, China
| | - Aiqing Han
- School of Management, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, China
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He C, Breitner S, Zhang S, Huber V, Naumann M, Traidl-Hoffmann C, Hammel G, Peters A, Ertl M, Schneider A. Nocturnal heat exposure and stroke risk. Eur Heart J 2024; 45:2158-2166. [PMID: 38768958 PMCID: PMC11212822 DOI: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehae277] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2023] [Revised: 04/17/2024] [Accepted: 04/23/2024] [Indexed: 05/22/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS In recent decades, nighttime temperatures have increased faster than daytime temperatures. The increasing prevalence of nocturnal heat exposure may pose a significant risk to cardiovascular health. This study investigated the association between nighttime heat exposure and stroke risk in the region of Augsburg, Germany, and examined its temporal variations over 15 years. METHODS Hourly meteorological parameters, including mean temperature, relative humidity, and barometric pressure, were acquired from a local meteorological station. A data set was obtained consisting of 11 037 clinical stroke cases diagnosed during warmer months (May to October) between the years 2006 and 2020. The average age of cases was 71.3 years. Among these cases, 642 were identified as haemorrhagic strokes, 7430 were classified as ischaemic strokes, and 2947 were transient ischaemic attacks. A time-stratified case-crossover analysis with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate the stroke risk associated with extreme nighttime heat, as measured by the hot night excess (HNE) index after controlling for the potential confounding effects of daily maximum temperature and other climatic variables. Subgroup analyses by age group, sex, stroke subtype, and stroke severity were performed to identify variations in susceptibility to nighttime heat. RESULTS Results suggested a significant increase in stroke risk on days with extreme nighttime heat (97.5% percentile of HNE) (odds ratio 1.07, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.15) during the full study period. When comparing the results for 2013-20 with the results for 2006-12, there was a significant increase (P < .05) in HNE-related risk for all strokes and specifically for ischaemic strokes during the more recent period. Furthermore, older individuals, females, and patients with mild stroke symptoms exhibited a significantly increased vulnerability to nighttime heat. CONCLUSIONS This study found nocturnal heat exposure to be related to elevated stroke risk after controlling for maximum daytime temperature, with increasing susceptibility between 2006 and 2020. These results underscore the importance of considering nocturnal heat as a critical trigger of stroke events in a warming climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cheng He
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München—German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH), Ingolstädter Landstraße 1, D-85764 Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Susanne Breitner
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München—German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH), Ingolstädter Landstraße 1, D-85764 Neuherberg, Germany
- Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry, and Epidemiology, IBE, Medical Faculty, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Munich, Germany
| | - Siqi Zhang
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München—German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH), Ingolstädter Landstraße 1, D-85764 Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Veronika Huber
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München—German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH), Ingolstädter Landstraße 1, D-85764 Neuherberg, Germany
- Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry, and Epidemiology, IBE, Medical Faculty, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Munich, Germany
| | - Markus Naumann
- Department of Neurology and Clinical Neurophysiology, University Hospital Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany
| | - Claudia Traidl-Hoffmann
- Environmental Medicine, Medical Faculty, University Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany
- CK-CARE, Christine Kühne Center for Allergy and Research and Education, Davos, Switzerland
- Institute of Environmental Medicine, Helmholtz Zentrum München—German Research Center for Environmental Health, Augsburg, Germany
| | - Gertrud Hammel
- Environmental Medicine, Medical Faculty, University Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany
- Institute of Environmental Medicine, Helmholtz Zentrum München—German Research Center for Environmental Health, Augsburg, Germany
| | - Annette Peters
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München—German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH), Ingolstädter Landstraße 1, D-85764 Neuherberg, Germany
- Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry, and Epidemiology, IBE, Medical Faculty, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Munich, Germany
- Munich Heart Alliance, German Center for Cardiovascular Health (DZHK e.V., partner-site Munich), Munich, Germany
| | - Michael Ertl
- Department of Neurology and Clinical Neurophysiology, University Hospital Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany
| | - Alexandra Schneider
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München—German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH), Ingolstädter Landstraße 1, D-85764 Neuherberg, Germany
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Gao Y, Lin L, Yin P, Kan H, Chen R, Zhou M. Heat Exposure and Dementia-Related Mortality in China. JAMA Netw Open 2024; 7:e2419250. [PMID: 38941091 PMCID: PMC11214125 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.19250] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2024] [Accepted: 04/27/2024] [Indexed: 06/29/2024] Open
Abstract
Importance Although existing research has found daily heat to be associated with dementia-related outcomes, there is still a gap in understanding the differing associations of nighttime and daytime heat with dementia-related deaths. Objectives To quantitatively assess the risk and burden of dementia-related deaths associated with short-term nighttime and daytime heat exposure and identify potential effect modifications. Design, Setting, and Participants This case-crossover study analyzed individual death records for dementia across all mainland China counties from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2019, using a time-stratified case-crossover approach. Statistical analysis was conducted from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2019. Exposures Two novel heat metrics: hot night excess (HNE) and hot day excess (HDE), representing nighttime and daytime heat intensity, respectively. Main Outcomes and Measures Main outcomes were the relative risk and burden of dementia-related deaths associated with HNE and HDE under different definitions. Analysis was conducted with conditional logistic regression integrated with the distributed lag nonlinear model. Results The study involved 132 573 dementia-related deaths (mean [SD] age, 82.5 [22.5] years; 73 086 women [55.1%]). For a 95% threshold, the median hot night threshold was 24.5 °C (IQR, 20.1 °C-26.2 °C) with an HNE of 3.7 °C (IQR, 3.1 °C-4.3 °C), and the median hot day threshold was 33.3 °C (IQR, 29.9 °C-34.7 °C) with an HDE of 0.6 °C (IQR, 0.5 °C-0.8 °C). Both nighttime and daytime heat were associated with increased risk of dementia-related deaths. Hot nights' associations with risk of dementia-related deaths persisted for 6 days, while hot days' associations with risk of dementia-related deaths extended over 10 days. Extreme HDE had a higher relative risk of dementia-related deaths, with a greater burden associated with extreme HNE at more stringent thresholds. At a 97.5% threshold, the odds ratio for dementia-related deaths was 1.38 (95% CI, 1.22-1.55) for extreme HNE and 1.46 (95% CI, 1.27-1.68) for extreme HDE, with an attributable fraction of 1.45% (95% empirical confidence interval [95% eCI], 1.43%-1.47%) for extreme HNE and 1.10% (95% eCI, 1.08%-1.11%) for extreme HDE. Subgroup analyses suggested heightened susceptibility among females, individuals older than 75 years of age, and those with lower educational levels. Regional disparities were observed, with individuals in the south exhibiting greater sensitivity to nighttime heat and those in the north to daytime heat. Conclusions and Relevance Results of this nationwide case-crossover study suggest that both nighttime and daytime heat are associated with increased risk of dementia-related deaths, with a greater burden associated with nighttime heat. These findings underscore the necessity of time-specific interventions to mitigate extreme heat risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ya Gao
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Lin Lin
- National Center for Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Peng Yin
- National Center for Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Haidong Kan
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Renjie Chen
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- School of Public Health, Hengyang Medical School, University of South China, Hengyang, Hunan, China
| | - Maigeng Zhou
- National Center for Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
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Chevance G, Minor K, Vielma C, Campi E, O'Callaghan-Gordo C, Basagaña X, Ballester J, Bernard P. A systematic review of ambient heat and sleep in a warming climate. Sleep Med Rev 2024; 75:101915. [PMID: 38598988 DOI: 10.1016/j.smrv.2024.101915] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/12/2023] [Revised: 01/31/2024] [Accepted: 02/20/2024] [Indexed: 04/12/2024]
Abstract
Climate change is elevating nighttime and daytime temperatures worldwide, affecting a broad continuum of behavioral and health outcomes. Disturbed sleep is a plausible pathway linking rising ambient temperatures with several observed adverse human responses shown to increase during hot weather. This systematic review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the literature investigating the relationship between ambient temperature and valid sleep outcomes measured in real-world settings, globally. We show that higher outdoor or indoor temperatures are generally associated with degraded sleep quality and quantity worldwide. The negative effect of heat persists across sleep measures, and is stronger during the hottest months and days, in vulnerable populations, and the warmest regions. Although we identify opportunities to strengthen the state of the science, limited evidence of fast sleep adaptation to heat suggests rising temperatures induced by climate change and urbanization pose a planetary threat to human sleep, and therefore health, performance, and wellbeing.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Kelton Minor
- Data Science Institute, Columbia University, New York, United States.
| | | | | | - Cristina O'Callaghan-Gordo
- ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain; Faculty of Health Sciences, Universitat Oberta de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain; Municipal Institute of Medical Research (IMIM-Hospital del Mar), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Xavier Basagaña
- ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | | | - Paquito Bernard
- Department of Physical Activity Sciences, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, Québec, Canada; Research Center, University Institute of Mental Health at Montreal, Montréal, Québec, Canada
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10
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Zhu Q, Ye P, Wang Y, Duan L, He G, Er Y, Jin Y, Ji C, Hu J, Deng X, Ma W, Liu T. Heatwaves increase road traffic injury morbidity risk and burden in China and its provinces. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2024; 188:108760. [PMID: 38788419 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108760] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/03/2024] [Revised: 05/08/2024] [Accepted: 05/18/2024] [Indexed: 05/26/2024]
Abstract
Previous studies have demonstrated health impacts of climate change, but evidence on heatwaves' associations with road traffic injury (RTI) is limited. In this study, individual information of RTI cases in May-September during 2006-2021 in China were obtained from the National Injury Surveillance System. Daily maximum temperatures (TMmax) during 2006-2021 were collected from the ERA-5 reanalysis, and the projected daily TMmax during 2020-2099 were obtained from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSPs). We used a time-stratified case-crossover analysis to investigate the association between short-term exposure (lag01 days) to heatwaves (exceeding the 92.5th percentile of daily TMmax for ≥ three consecutive days) and RTI, and to project heatwave-related RTI until 2099 across China. Finally, a total of 1 031 082 RTI cases were included in the analyses. Compared with non-heatwaves, the risks of RTI increased by 3.61 % during heatwaves. Greater associations were found in people aged 15-64 years, in people with transportation occupation, for non-motor traffic vehicle injuries, for severe RTI cases, and in Western China particularly in Qinghai province. We projected substantial increases in attributable fraction (AF) of heatwave-related RTI in the future, particularly in Western and Southwest China. The national average increase in AF (per decade) during 2020s-2090s was 0.036 % for SSP1-2.6 scenario, and 0.267 % for SSP5-8.5 scenario. This study provided evidence on the associations of heatwaves with RTI, and the heatwave-related RTI will substantially increase in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qijiong Zhu
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China; China Greater Bay Area Research Center of Environmental Health, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China; Key Laboratory of Viral Pathogenesis & Infection Prevention and Control, Jinan University, Ministry of Education, Guangzhou 510632, China
| | - Pengpeng Ye
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Yuan Wang
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Leilei Duan
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Guanhao He
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China; China Greater Bay Area Research Center of Environmental Health, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China
| | - Yuliang Er
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Ye Jin
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Cuirong Ji
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Jianxiong Hu
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China; China Greater Bay Area Research Center of Environmental Health, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China
| | - Xiao Deng
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China.
| | - Wenjun Ma
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China.
| | - Tao Liu
- China Greater Bay Area Research Center of Environmental Health, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China; Key Laboratory of Viral Pathogenesis & Infection Prevention and Control, Jinan University, Ministry of Education, Guangzhou 510632, China.
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11
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Shetty D. A lack of quality statistics is hiding the real heatwave death toll. BMJ 2024; 385:q1052. [PMID: 38744464 DOI: 10.1136/bmj.q1052] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/16/2024]
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12
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Falchetta G, De Cian E, Sue Wing I, Carr D. Global projections of heat exposure of older adults. Nat Commun 2024; 15:3678. [PMID: 38744815 PMCID: PMC11094092 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-47197-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/25/2023] [Accepted: 03/24/2024] [Indexed: 05/16/2024] Open
Abstract
The global population is aging at the same time as heat exposures are increasing due to climate change. Age structure, and its biological and socio-economic drivers, determine populations' vulnerability to high temperatures. Here we combine age-stratified demographic projections with downscaled temperature projections to mid-century and find that chronic exposure to heat doubles across all warming scenarios. Moreover, >23% of the global population aged 69+ will inhabit climates whose 95th percentile of daily maximum temperature exceeds the critical threshold of 37.5 °C, compared with 14% today, exposing an additional 177-246 million older adults to dangerous acute heat. Effects are most severe in Asia and Africa, which also have the lowest adaptive capacity. Our results facilitate regional heat risk assessments and inform public health decision-making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Giacomo Falchetta
- CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Venice, Italy.
- RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, Venice, Italy.
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
| | - Enrica De Cian
- CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Venice, Italy
- RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, Venice, Italy
- Department of Economics, Ca' Foscari University, Venice, Italy
| | - Ian Sue Wing
- Department of Earth & Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA, 02215, USA
| | - Deborah Carr
- Department of Sociology, Boston University, Boston, MA, 02215, USA
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13
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Wicki B, Flückiger B, Vienneau D, de Hoogh K, Röösli M, Ragettli MS. Socio-environmental modifiers of heat-related mortality in eight Swiss cities: A case time series analysis. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2024; 246:118116. [PMID: 38184064 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2024.118116] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2023] [Revised: 12/14/2023] [Accepted: 01/04/2024] [Indexed: 01/08/2024]
Abstract
In the light of growing urbanization and projected temperature increases due to climate change, heat-related mortality in urban areas is a pressing public health concern. Heat exposure and vulnerability to heat may vary within cities depending on structural features and socioeconomic factors. This study examined the effect modification of the temperature-mortality association of three socio-environmental factors in eight Swiss cities and population subgroups (<75 and ≥ 75 years, males, females): urban heat islands (UHI) based on within-city temperature contrasts, residential greenness measured as normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and neighborhood socioeconomic position (SEP). We used individual death records from the Swiss National Cohort occurring during the warm season (May to September) in the years 2003-2016. We performed a case time series analysis using conditional quasi-Poisson and distributed lag non-linear models with a lag of 0-3 days. As exposure variables, we used daily maximum temperatures (Tmax) and a binary indicator for warm nights (Tmin ≥20 °C). In total, 53,593 deaths occurred during the study period. Overall across the eight cities, the mortality risk increased by 31% (1.31 relative risk (95% confidence interval: 1.20-1.42)) between 22.5 °C (the minimum mortality temperature) and 35 °C (the 99th percentile) for warm-season Tmax. Stratified analysis suggested that the heat-related risk at 35 °C is 26% (95%CI: -4%, 67%) higher in UHI compared to non-UHI areas. Indications of smaller risk differences were observed between the low vs. high greenness strata (Relative risk difference = 13% (95%CI: -11%; 44%)). Living in low SEP neighborhoods was associated with an increased heat related risk in the non-elderly population (<75 years). Our results indicate that UHI are associated with increased heat-related mortality risk within Swiss cities, and that features beyond greenness are responsible for such spatial risk differences.
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Affiliation(s)
- Benedikt Wicki
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH), Allschwil, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
| | - Benjamin Flückiger
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH), Allschwil, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Danielle Vienneau
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH), Allschwil, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Kees de Hoogh
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH), Allschwil, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Martin Röösli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH), Allschwil, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Martina S Ragettli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH), Allschwil, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
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14
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Yang J, Luo S, Liu Y, Hong M, Qiu X, Lin Y, Zhang W, Gao P, Li Z, Hu Z, Xia M. Cohort Profile: South China Cohort. Int J Epidemiol 2024; 53:dyae028. [PMID: 38412541 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyae028] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2023] [Accepted: 02/06/2024] [Indexed: 02/29/2024] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Jialu Yang
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Food, Nutrition and Health and Department of Nutrition, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Shiyun Luo
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Food, Nutrition and Health and Department of Nutrition, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Yan Liu
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Food, Nutrition and Health and Department of Nutrition, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Minghuang Hong
- Department of Clinical Trial Centre, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Centre, Guangzhou, China
| | - Xiaoqiang Qiu
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, China
| | - Yingzi Lin
- School of Tropical Medicine, Hainan Medical University, Haikou, China
| | - Weisen Zhang
- Molecular Epidemiology Research Centre, Guangzhou Twelfth People's Hospital, Guangzhou, China
| | - Peisong Gao
- Luohu People's Hospital, Shen Zhen Luohu Hospital Group, Shenzhen, China
| | - Zhibin Li
- First Affiliated Hospital of Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Zhijian Hu
- School of Public Health, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China
| | - Min Xia
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Food, Nutrition and Health and Department of Nutrition, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
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15
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Liang C, Yuan J, Tang X, Kan H, Cai W, Chen J. The influence of humid heat on morbidity of megacity Shanghai in China. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2024; 183:108424. [PMID: 38219539 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108424] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2023] [Revised: 12/12/2023] [Accepted: 01/03/2024] [Indexed: 01/16/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Increased attention has been paid to humid-heat extremes as they are projected to increase in both frequency and intensity. However, it remains unclear how compound extremes of heat and humidity affects morbidity when the climate is projected to continue warming in the future, in particular for a megacity with a large population. METHODS We chose the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) index as the metric to characterize the humid-heat exposure. The historical associations between daily outpatient visits and daily mean WBGT was established using a Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (DLNM) during the warm season (June to September) from 2013 to 2015 in Shanghai, a prominent megacity of China. Future morbidity burden related to the combined effect of high temperature and humidity were projected under four greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585). RESULTS The humid-heat weather was significantly associated with a higher risk of outpatient visits in Shanghai than the high-temperature conditions. Relative to the baseline period (2010-2019), the morbidity burden due to humid-heat weather was projected to increase 4.4 % (95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.1 %-10.1 %) even under the strict emission control scenario (SSP126) by 2100. Under the high-GHGs emission scenario (SSP585), this burden was projected to be 25.4 % (95 % CI: 15.8 %-38.4 %), which is 10.1 % (95 % CI: 6.5 %-15.8 %) more than that due to high-temperature weather. Our results also indicate that humid-hot nights could cause large morbidity risks under high-GHGs emission scenarios particularly in heat-sensible diseases such as the respiratory and cardiovascular disease by the end of this century. CONCLUSIONS Humid heat exposures significantly increased the all-cause morbidity risk in the megacity Shanghai, especially in humid-hot nights. Our findings suggest that the combined effect of elevated temperature and humidity is projected to have more substantial impact on health compared to high temperature alone in a warming climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chen Liang
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences & CMA-FDU Joint Laboratory of Marine Meteorology, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China; IRDR International Center of Excellence on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China
| | - Jiacan Yuan
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences & CMA-FDU Joint Laboratory of Marine Meteorology, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China; IRDR International Center of Excellence on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China.
| | - Xu Tang
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences & CMA-FDU Joint Laboratory of Marine Meteorology, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China; IRDR International Center of Excellence on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China
| | - Haidong Kan
- IRDR International Center of Excellence on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China; School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Wenjia Cai
- Department of Earth System Science, Institute for Global Change Studies, Ministry of Education Ecological Field Station for East Asian Migratory Birds, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Jianmin Chen
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences & CMA-FDU Joint Laboratory of Marine Meteorology, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China; IRDR International Center of Excellence on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China
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16
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Wennman H, Partonen T. Impacts of temperature and solar radiation changes in northern Europe on key population health behaviors: a scoping review of reviews. Scand J Public Health 2023:14034948231216909. [PMID: 38142291 DOI: 10.1177/14034948231216909] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/25/2023]
Abstract
AIM Climate change threatens health directly as well as indirectly through impacts on health-related behaviors. Physical activity, nutrition and sleep are key health-related behaviors for population health. We aimed at elucidating the impacts of climate change which emerge gradually on these three key health-related behaviors, particularly focusing on scenarios and projections relevant to people living in the northern Europe. METHODS We conducted a systematic literature search in three different databases in January 2023 to identify English language review articles summarizing the effects of climate change on either physical activity, nutrition, sleep, or their combination. RESULTS We identified 15 review articles on the topic. Data on climate change impacts on nutrition and sleep were sparse, and those on physical activity were heterogeneous. The climate in northern Europe will become warmer and sunnier in summer as well as warmer and darker in winter, which will probably increase the level of physical activity, but decrease the consumption of fruits and vegetables, as well as increase the occurrence of sleep disturbances in a population. CONCLUSIONS The anticipated changes in physical activity, nutrition and sleep driven by climate change influence population health and call for grass-roots action plans for adaptation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heini Wennman
- Equality Unit, Department of Public Health and Welfare, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Finland
| | - Timo Partonen
- Equality Unit, Department of Public Health and Welfare, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Finland
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17
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Ziegler C, Muchira J. Climate Change: The Ultimate Determinant of Health. Prim Care 2023; 50:645-655. [PMID: 37866837 DOI: 10.1016/j.pop.2023.04.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/24/2023]
Abstract
Climate change ubiquitously influences social determinants of health via various pathways. Disproportionately burdening communities who have contributed the least to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and benefitted the least from economic benefits obtained through high-emission activities that cause climate change, climate justice must be centered in any discussion of health equity. This article will explore how climate change contributes to health disparities in vulnerable populations, why this is a justice issue for primary care to address, and what we can do to promote equity, resilience, and adaption in our current economic system while mitigating GHG emissions, leveraging the health sector.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carol Ziegler
- Vanderbilt University School of Nursing, 461 21st Avenue South, Nashville, TN 37240, USA.
| | - James Muchira
- Vanderbilt University School of Nursing, 461 21st Avenue South, Nashville, TN 37240, USA. https://twitter.com/JamesMuturi5
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18
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Tao J, Zhang Y, Li Z, Yang M, Huang C, Hossain MZ, Xu Y, Wei X, Su H, Cheng J, Zhang W. Daytime and nighttime high temperatures differentially increased the risk of cardiovascular disease: A nationwide hospital-based study in China. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2023; 236:116740. [PMID: 37495061 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.116740] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/19/2023] [Revised: 07/01/2023] [Accepted: 07/24/2023] [Indexed: 07/28/2023]
Abstract
Short-term exposure to ambient high temperature (heat) could increase the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, available evidence on the burden of daytime and nighttime heat on CVD is limited and vulnerable populations remain unknown so far. We aimed to examine and differentiate the impact of daytime and nighttime heat on CVD in China. Data on daily outpatient visits for CVD were collected from 15 Chinese cities spanning multiple geographical regions, climates, and socio-economic conditions. The population-weighted temperature was used to calculate excess heat exposure in warm seasons (June-September) from 2011 to 2015. Hot day excess (HDE) and hot night excess (HNE), the sum of temperature above the heat threshold during daytime and nighttime respectively, were used to represent daytime and nighttime excess heat. A distributed lag non-linear model was employed to estimate the city-level association between HDE/HNE and daily CVD cases. The city-level association was then pooled by multivariate meta-analysis. We further estimated the disease burden of CVD attributable to HDE and HNE by geographical regions, gender, and age. A total of 729,409 cases of CVD were included in this study. Both HDE and HNE were associated with an increased risk of CVD, with greater effects from nighttime heat (relative risk (RR): 1.38; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.18-1.61) than daytime heat (RR: 1.10; 95% CI: 1.05-1.15). The proportion of CVD cases attributable to HNE was 15.7%, which was almost three times as high as HDE (4.6%, p for difference <0.05). Males, people living in northern cities, and those aged less than 45 years were more vulnerable to HNE. Our findings for the first time revealed an intra-day difference in the heat effect on CVD, with a greater impact from nighttime heat exposure, which should be considered to protect vulnerable populations on hot days.
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Affiliation(s)
- Junwen Tao
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Major Autoimmune Disease, Hefei, China
| | - Yongming Zhang
- Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Center of Respiratory Medicine, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases, Beijing, China
| | - Zhiwei Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Major Autoimmune Disease, Hefei, China
| | - Min Yang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Major Autoimmune Disease, Hefei, China
| | - Cunrui Huang
- Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Mohammad Zahid Hossain
- International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Yuanyong Xu
- Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Xianyu Wei
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Hong Su
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Major Autoimmune Disease, Hefei, China
| | - Jian Cheng
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Major Autoimmune Disease, Hefei, China.
| | - Wenyi Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
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19
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Kim Y, Oka K, Kawazu EC, Ng CFS, Seposo X, Ueda K, Hashizume M, Honda Y. Enhancing health resilience in Japan in a changing climate. THE LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. WESTERN PACIFIC 2023; 40:100970. [PMID: 38116496 PMCID: PMC10730320 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2023.100970] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/28/2023] [Revised: 10/17/2023] [Accepted: 11/02/2023] [Indexed: 12/21/2023]
Abstract
Climate change poses significant threats to human health, propelling Japan to take decisive action through the Climate Change Adaptation Act of 2018. This Act has led to the implementation of climate change adaptation policies across various sectors, including healthcare. In this review, we synthesized existing scientific evidence on the impacts of climate change on health in Japan and outlined the adaptation strategies and measures implemented by the central and local governments. The country has prioritized tackling heat-related illness and mortality and undertaken various adaptation measures to mitigate these risks. However, it faces unique challenges due to its super-aged society. Ensuring effective and coordinated strategies to address the growing uncertainties in vulnerability to climate change and the complex intersectoral impacts of disasters remains a critical issue. To combat the additional health risks by climate change, a comprehensive approach embracing adaptation and mitigation policies in the health sector is crucial. Encouraging intersectoral communication and collaboration will be vital for developing coherent and effective strategies to safeguard public health in the face of climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yoonhee Kim
- Department of Global Environmental Health, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Japan
| | - Kazutaka Oka
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan
| | | | - Chris Fook Sheng Ng
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Japan
| | - Xerxes Seposo
- Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Japan
| | - Kayo Ueda
- Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Japan
| | - Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Japan
- Department of Global Health, School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Japan
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan
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20
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Seposo X, Valenzuela S, Apostol GL. Socio-economic factors and its influence on the association between temperature and dengue incidence in 61 Provinces of the Philippines, 2010-2019. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2023; 17:e0011700. [PMID: 37871125 PMCID: PMC10621993 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011700] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2023] [Revised: 11/02/2023] [Accepted: 10/04/2023] [Indexed: 10/25/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Temperature has a significant impact on dengue incidence, however, changes on the temperature-dengue relationship across axes of socio-economic vulnerability is not well described. This study sought to determine the association between dengue and temperature in multiple locations in the Philippines and explore the effect modification by socio-economic factors. METHOD Nationwide dengue cases per province from 2010 to 2019 and data on temperature were obtained from the Philippines' Department of Health-Epidemiological Bureau and ERA5-land, respectively. A generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) with a distributed lag non-linear model was utilized to examine the association between temperature and dengue incidence. We further implemented an interaction analysis in determining how socio-economic factors modify the association. All analyses were implemented using R programming. RESULTS Nationwide temperature-dengue risk function was noted to depict an inverted U-shaped pattern. Dengue risk increased linearly alongside increasing mean temperature from 15.8 degrees Celsius and peaking at 27.5 degrees Celsius before declining. However, province-specific analyses revealed significant heterogeneity. Socio-economic factors had varying impact on the temperature-dengue association. Provinces with high population density, less people in urban areas with larger household size, high poverty incidence, higher health spending per capita, and in lower latitudes were noted to exhibit statistically higher dengue risk compared to their counterparts at the upper temperature range. CONCLUSIONS This observational study found that temperature was associated with dengue incidence, and that this association is more apparent in locations with high population density, less people in urban areas with larger household size, high poverty incidence, higher health spending per capita, and in lower latitudes. Differences with socio-economic conditions is linked with dengue risk. This highlights the need to develop interventions tailor-fit to local conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xerxes Seposo
- Department of Hygiene, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Hokkaido Japan
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
- Ateneo School of Medicine and Public Health, Ateneo de Manila University, Pasig, Philippines
| | - Sary Valenzuela
- Ateneo School of Medicine and Public Health, Ateneo de Manila University, Pasig, Philippines
| | - Geminn Louis Apostol
- Ateneo School of Medicine and Public Health, Ateneo de Manila University, Pasig, Philippines
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He C, Yin P, Chen R, Gao Y, Liu W, Schneider A, Bell ML, Kan H, Zhou M. Cause-specific accidental deaths and burdens related to ambient heat in a warming climate: A nationwide study of China. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2023; 180:108231. [PMID: 37778287 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2023.108231] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2023] [Revised: 08/14/2023] [Accepted: 09/23/2023] [Indexed: 10/03/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Future warming is projected to increase the heat-related mortality burden, especially for vulnerable populations. However, most previous studies focused on non-accidental morbidity or mortality, with far less research on heat-related accidental events. METHODS We collected individual accidental death records among all residents in Chinese mainland from June to August during 2013-2019. Accidental deaths were further divided into several subtypes by different causes. We used an individual-level, time-stratified, case-crossover study design to estimate the association between daily mean temperature and accidental deaths, and estimate its variation in seven geo-climatic zones, age (5-64, 65-74, ≥75), and sex (male, female). We then estimated the temperature-related excess accidental deaths under global warming scenarios of 1.5, 2, and 3℃. FINDINGS A total of 711,929 accidental death records were included in our study. We found that higher temperatures were associated with increased risks of deaths from the total accidental events and four main subtypes, including traffic, falls, drowning, and unintentional injuries. We also found that younger individuals (ages 5-64) and males faced a higher risk of heat-related mortality due to total accidents, traffic incidents, and drowning. For future climate scenarios, even under the 1.5℃ climate change scenario, 6,939 (95% eCI (empirical Confidence Interval): 6,818-7,067) excess accidental deaths per year are attributed to higher summertime daily temperature over mainland China, and the number of accidental deaths would increase by 16.71% and 33.59% under the 2℃ and 3℃ climate change scenarios, respectively. For residents living in southern coastal and northwest inland regions, the projected increase in accidental death is higher. CONCLUSIONS This nationwide study confirms that higher summer temperatures are linked to an increased risk of accidental deaths. Younger age groups and males face a higher risk. This indicates that current estimates of the health effects of climate change might be underestimated, particularly for younger populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cheng He
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH), Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Peng Yin
- National Center for Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Renjie Chen
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Ya Gao
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Wei Liu
- National Center for Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Alexandra Schneider
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH), Neuherberg, Germany
| | | | - Haidong Kan
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Children's Hospital of Fudan University, National Center for Children's Health, Shanghai, China.
| | - Maigeng Zhou
- National Center for Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
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Zhang S, Breitner S, Rai M, Nikolaou N, Stafoggia M, De' Donato F, Samoli E, Zafeiratou S, Katsouyanni K, Rao S, Palomares ADL, Gasparrini A, Masselot P, Aunan K, Peters A, Schneider A. Assessment of short-term heat effects on cardiovascular mortality and vulnerability factors using small area data in Europe. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2023; 179:108154. [PMID: 37603993 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2023.108154] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2023] [Revised: 08/15/2023] [Accepted: 08/16/2023] [Indexed: 08/23/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Short-term associations between heat and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality have been examined mostly in large cities. However, different vulnerability and exposure levels may contribute to spatial heterogeneity. This study assessed heat effects on CVD mortality and potential vulnerability factors using data from three European countries, including urban and rural settings. METHODS We collected daily counts of CVD deaths aggregated at the small-area level in Norway (small-area level: municipality), England and Wales (lower super output areas), and Germany (district) during the warm season (May-September) from 1996 to 2018. Daily mean air temperatures estimated by spatial-temporal models were assigned to each small area. Within each country, we applied area-specific Quasi-Poisson regression using distributed lag nonlinear models to examine the heat effects at lag 0-1 days. The area-specific estimates were pooled by random-effects meta-analysis to derive country-specific and overall heat effects. We examined individual- and area-level heat vulnerability factors by subgroup analyses and meta-regression, respectively. RESULTS We included 2.84 million CVD deaths in analyses. For an increase in temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile, the pooled relative risk (RR) for CVD mortality was 1.14 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.26), with the country-specific RRs ranging from 1.04 (1.00, 1.09) in Norway to 1.24 (1.23, 1.26) in Germany. Heat effects were stronger among women [RRs (95% CIs) for women and men: 1.18 (1.08, 1.28) vs. 1.12 (1.00, 1.24)]. Greater heat vulnerability was observed in areas with high population density, high degree of urbanization, low green coverage, and high levels of fine particulate matter. CONCLUSION This study provides evidence for the heat effects on CVD mortality in European countries using high-resolution data from both urban and rural areas. Besides, we identified individual- and area-level heat vulnerability factors. Our findings may facilitate the development of heat-health action plans to increase resilience to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Siqi Zhang
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, Neuherberg, Germany.
| | - Susanne Breitner
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, Neuherberg, Germany; Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry, and Epidemiology, LMU, Munich, Germany
| | - Masna Rai
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, Neuherberg, Germany; Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry, and Epidemiology, LMU, Munich, Germany
| | - Nikolaos Nikolaou
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, Neuherberg, Germany; Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry, and Epidemiology, LMU, Munich, Germany
| | - Massimo Stafoggia
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service - ASL ROMA 1, Rome, Italy
| | - Francesca De' Donato
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service - ASL ROMA 1, Rome, Italy
| | - Evangelia Samoli
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Medical School, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
| | - Sofia Zafeiratou
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Medical School, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
| | - Klea Katsouyanni
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Medical School, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
| | - Shilpa Rao
- Department of Air Pollution and Noise, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
| | | | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Pierre Masselot
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Kristin Aunan
- CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Norway
| | - Annette Peters
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, Neuherberg, Germany; Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry, and Epidemiology, LMU, Munich, Germany; German Centre for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner Site Munich Heart Alliance, Munich, Germany
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23
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Buttke DE, Raynor B, Schuurman GW. Predicting climate-change induced heat-related illness risk in Grand Canyon National Park visitors. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0288812. [PMID: 37556450 PMCID: PMC10411749 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0288812] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2022] [Accepted: 05/31/2023] [Indexed: 08/11/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The climate crisis is the greatest public health threat of the 21st century. Excessive heat is responsible for more deaths than any other extreme weather event, and the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme heat events are increasing globally due to climate change. Exposure to excessive heat can result in heat related illnesses (HRIs) and long-term poor health outcomes. Physical exertion, sudden exposure to excessive heat, and the lack of physical or behavioral adaptation resources are all associated with greater HRI risk, which is expected to increase for visitors to Grand Canyon National Park (GCNP) and other public lands as climate change worsens. OBJECTIVES Our objectives were to understand 1) the relationship between weather and HRI in GCNP visitors, 2) how future HRI rates may change, and 3) how land management agencies can update risk mitigation strategies to match changing risk and better manage an increased HRI burden. METHODS We utilized previously published data on HRI in GCNP visitors, and records of daily visitation, temperatures, and maximum and minimum daily humidity from the same study period to develop a model estimate for HRI risk. We then used future climate projections from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 multi-model dataset to model future HRI risk under different climate scenarios. RESULTS The incidence of HRI was significantly associated with maximum daily temperature and minimum relative humidity, and was more common in the shoulder season months. We estimated that HRI will increase 29%-137% over 2004-2009 levels through 2100, assuming no change in visitation. DISCUSSION Climate change will continue to increase HRI risk for GCNP visitors and poses risks to public land managers' mission to provide for safe recreation experiences for the benefit of this and future generations in places like GCNP. Excessive risk during the shoulder season months presents an opportunity to increase preventative search and rescue and education efforts to mitigate increased risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Danielle E. Buttke
- Natural Resource Stewardship and Science Directorate, National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Brinkley Raynor
- Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Informatics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States of America
| | - Gregor W. Schuurman
- Natural Resource Stewardship and Science Directorate, National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America
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He C, Yin P, Liu Z, Huang J, Chen Y, Gao X, Xu Y, Wang C, Cai W, Gong P, Luo Y, Ji JS, Kan H, Chen R, Zhou M. Projections of excess deaths related to cold spells under climate and population change scenarios: A nationwide time series modeling study. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2023; 178:108034. [PMID: 37348158 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2023.108034] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/10/2023] [Revised: 05/23/2023] [Accepted: 06/09/2023] [Indexed: 06/24/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Future climate change is likely to alter cold spell-related disease burden. Few projection studies have considered the potential impact of the aging population with changing population size on cold spell-related disease burdens. METHODS We derived the association between cold spells and daily mortality for 272 main cities in mainland China. We combined these associations with modeled daily temperatures from three different climate models under two climate change scenarios and three population scenarios to project excess deaths related to cold spells. Furthermore, we used the factor separation method to calculate the independent contribution of future population size, age structure, and climate change on projected deaths attributable to cold spells. FINDINGS Compared to the baseline period, future excess deaths related to cold spells are expected to increase over most of the decades under RCP 2.6 (81.5% in 2050 s and 37% in 2090 s) and RCP 4.5 (55.5% in 2050 s and -19% in 2090 s). The factor analysis indicated that the rise of the aged population (≥65) substantially would amplify the excess deaths related to cold spells (increase by 101.1% in the 2050 s and 146.2% in the 2090 s). For the near future (2021-2040), population aging could fully offset the influence of decreased cold-spell days. In the middle of this century (2051-2070), the total excess deaths will exhibit significant variation across three scenarios. By the end of 21 century (2081-2100), the population shrinking would reduce the total excess deaths. INTERPRETATION Excess deaths related to cold spells may still increase in a warming climate and future demographic shifts would produce considerable influences in this increase for different periods.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cheng He
- School of Public Health, Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH), Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Peng Yin
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Zhao Liu
- School of Linkong Economics and Management, Beijing Institute of Economics and Management, Beijing, China
| | - Jianbin Huang
- Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Yidan Chen
- State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control (SKLESPC), School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Xuejie Gao
- College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Climate Change Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Ying Xu
- National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
| | - Can Wang
- State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control (SKLESPC), School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Wenjia Cai
- Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Peng Gong
- Institute for Climate and Carbon Neutrality, Department of Earth Sciences and Geography, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Yong Luo
- Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - John S Ji
- Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Haidong Kan
- School of Public Health, Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Children's Hospital of Fudan University, National Center for Children's Health, Shanghai, China
| | - Renjie Chen
- School of Public Health, Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
| | - Maigeng Zhou
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
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Liu Z, Peng T, Ma S, Qi C, Song Y, Zhang C, Li K, Gao N, Pu M, Wang X, Bi Y, Na X. Potential benefits and risks of solar photovoltaic power plants on arid and semi-arid ecosystems: an assessment of soil microbial and plant communities. Front Microbiol 2023; 14:1190650. [PMID: 37588884 PMCID: PMC10427150 DOI: 10.3389/fmicb.2023.1190650] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/21/2023] [Accepted: 07/07/2023] [Indexed: 08/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Exponential increase in photovoltaic installations arouses concerns regarding the impacts of large-scale solar power plants on dryland ecosystems. While the effects of photovoltaic panels on soil moisture content and plant biomass in arid ecosystems have been recognized, little is known about their influence on soil microbial communities. Here, we employed a combination of quantitative PCR, high-throughput sequencing, and soil property analysis to investigate the responses of soil microbial communities to solar panel installation. We also report on the responses of plant communities within the same solar farm. Our findings showed that soil microbial communities responded differently to the shading and precipitation-alternation effects of the photovoltaic panels in an arid ecosystem. By redirecting rainwater to the lower side, photovoltaic panels stimulated vegetation biomass and soil total organic carbon content in the middle and in front of the panels, positively contributing to carbon storage. The shade provided by the panels promoted the co-occurrence of soil microbes but inhibited the abundance of 16S rRNA gene in the soil. Increase in precipitation reduced 18S rRNA gene abundance, whereas decrease in precipitation led to decline in plant aboveground biomass, soil prokaryotic community alpha diversity, and dehydrogenase activity under the panels. These findings highlight the crucial role of precipitation in maintaining plant and soil microbial diversities in dryland ecosystems and are essential for estimating the potential risks of large-scale solar power plants on local and global climate change in the long term.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ziyu Liu
- Key Laboratory of Cell Activities and Stress Adaptations, Ministry of Education, School of Life Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Tong Peng
- Key Laboratory of Cell Activities and Stress Adaptations, Ministry of Education, School of Life Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Shaolan Ma
- No. 1 Middle School of Penyang, Guyuan, China
| | - Chang Qi
- Key Laboratory of Cell Activities and Stress Adaptations, Ministry of Education, School of Life Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Yanfang Song
- Key Laboratory of Cell Activities and Stress Adaptations, Ministry of Education, School of Life Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Chuanji Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Cell Activities and Stress Adaptations, Ministry of Education, School of Life Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Kaile Li
- Key Laboratory of Cell Activities and Stress Adaptations, Ministry of Education, School of Life Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Na Gao
- Key Laboratory of Cell Activities and Stress Adaptations, Ministry of Education, School of Life Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Meiyun Pu
- Key Laboratory of Cell Activities and Stress Adaptations, Ministry of Education, School of Life Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Xiaomin Wang
- Key Laboratory of Cell Activities and Stress Adaptations, Ministry of Education, School of Life Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Yurong Bi
- Key Laboratory of Cell Activities and Stress Adaptations, Ministry of Education, School of Life Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Xiaofan Na
- Key Laboratory of Cell Activities and Stress Adaptations, Ministry of Education, School of Life Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
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Seltenrich N. No Reprieve: Extreme Heat at Night Contributes to Heat Wave Mortality. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2023; 131:74003. [PMID: 37477717 PMCID: PMC10361253 DOI: 10.1289/ehp13206] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2023] [Accepted: 06/22/2023] [Indexed: 07/22/2023]
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27
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Liu J, Lv C, Zheng J, Pan C, Zhang G, Tan H, Ma Y, Zhu Y, Han X, Li C, Yan S, Ma J, Zhang J, Wang C, Bian Y, Cheng K, Liu R, Hou Y, Chen Q, Zhang X, Chen Y, Chen R, Xu F. The impact of non-optimum temperatures, heatwaves and cold spells on out-of-hospital cardiac arrest onset in a changing climate in China: a multi-center, time-stratified, case-crossover study. THE LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. WESTERN PACIFIC 2023; 36:100778. [PMID: 37547045 PMCID: PMC10398603 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2023.100778] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2023] [Revised: 03/26/2023] [Accepted: 04/16/2023] [Indexed: 08/08/2023]
Abstract
Background Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is a time-critical and fatal medical emergency that has been linked to non-optimal temperatures. However, the future burden of OHCA due to non-optimal temperatures, heatwaves, and cold spells under climate change has not been well evaluated. Methods We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study in 15 Northern Chinese cities throughout 2020 to estimate the exposure-response relationships of non-optimal temperatures, heatwaves, and cold spells with hourly OHCA onset in hot and cold seasons. We obtained future daily average temperatures by using 20 general circulation models under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios: one with certain emission control and the other with relaxed control. Lastly, we projected the change of OHCA burden under these two climate scenarios. Findings We analyzed a total of 29,671 OHCA patients and found that high temperatures and heatwaves as well as low temperatures and cold spells were all significantly associated with an increased risk of OHCA onset. Under the scenario of uncontrolled emissions, the attributable fraction (AF) of OHCA due to high temperatures and heatwaves would increase by 4.94% and 6.99% from the 2010s to 2090s, respectively. The AF due to low temperatures would decrease by 1.27% by the 2090s and the effects of cold spells were projected to be marginal after the 2050s. Under a medium emission control scenario, the upward trend of heat-related OHCA burden would become flat, and the decline in cold-related OHCA burden would also slow down. Interpretation Our study provides evidence of significant morbidity risk and burden of OHCA associated with global warming across Northern China. Our findings indicate that the increase in OHCA burden attributable to heat could not be offset by the decrements attributable to cold, emphasizing the importance of mitigation policies for limiting global warming and reducing the associated risks of OHCA onset. Funding National Science & Technology Fundamental Resources Investigation Project (2018FY100600, 2018FY100602), National Key R&D Program of China (2020YFC1512700, 2020YFC1512705, 2020YFC1512703), Key R&D Program of Shandong Province (2021ZLGX02, 2021SFGC0503), Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province (ZR2021MH231), Taishan Pandeng Scholar Program of Shandong Province (tspd20181220), the Interdisciplinary Young Researcher Groups Program of Shandong University (2020QNQT004), ECCM Program of Clinical Research Center of Shandong University (2021SDUCRCA001, 2021SDUCRCA002), foundation from Clinical Research Center of Shandong University (2020SDUCRCB003), National Natural Science Foundation of China (82272240).
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiangdong Liu
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Chuanzhu Lv
- Emergency Medicine Center, Sichuan Provincial People’s Hospital, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
- Research Unit of Island Emergency Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences (No. 2019RU013), Key Laboratory of Emergency and Trauma of Ministry of Education, Hainan Medical University, Haikou, Hainan, China
| | - Jiaqi Zheng
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Key Laboratory of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong Province, Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary-Cerebral Resuscitation Research of Shandong Province, Shandong Provincial Engineering Laboratory for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chest Pain Center, Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Institute of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Chang Pan
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Key Laboratory of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong Province, Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary-Cerebral Resuscitation Research of Shandong Province, Shandong Provincial Engineering Laboratory for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chest Pain Center, Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Institute of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Guoqiang Zhang
- Department of Emergency Medicine, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Huiqiong Tan
- Emergency and Intensive Care Center, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Yu Ma
- Department of Intensive Care Unit, Chongqing Key Laboratory of Emergency Medicine, Chongqing Emergency Medical Center, Chongqing University Central Hospital, Chongqing, China
| | - Yimin Zhu
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Emergency and Critical Care Metabonomics, Hunan Provincial Institute of Emergency Medicine, Hunan Provincial People’s Hospital/The First Affiliated Hospital, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, Hunan, China
| | - Xiaotong Han
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Emergency and Critical Care Metabonomics, Hunan Provincial Institute of Emergency Medicine, Hunan Provincial People’s Hospital/The First Affiliated Hospital, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, Hunan, China
| | - Chaoqian Li
- Department of Emergency, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, Guangxi, China
| | - Shengtao Yan
- Department of Emergency Medicine, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Jingjing Ma
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Key Laboratory of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong Province, Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary-Cerebral Resuscitation Research of Shandong Province, Shandong Provincial Engineering Laboratory for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chest Pain Center, Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Institute of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Jianbo Zhang
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Key Laboratory of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong Province, Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary-Cerebral Resuscitation Research of Shandong Province, Shandong Provincial Engineering Laboratory for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chest Pain Center, Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Institute of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Chunyi Wang
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Key Laboratory of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong Province, Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary-Cerebral Resuscitation Research of Shandong Province, Shandong Provincial Engineering Laboratory for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chest Pain Center, Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Institute of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Yuan Bian
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Key Laboratory of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong Province, Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary-Cerebral Resuscitation Research of Shandong Province, Shandong Provincial Engineering Laboratory for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chest Pain Center, Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Institute of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Kai Cheng
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Key Laboratory of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong Province, Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary-Cerebral Resuscitation Research of Shandong Province, Shandong Provincial Engineering Laboratory for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chest Pain Center, Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Institute of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Rugang Liu
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Key Laboratory of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong Province, Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary-Cerebral Resuscitation Research of Shandong Province, Shandong Provincial Engineering Laboratory for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chest Pain Center, Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Institute of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Yaping Hou
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Key Laboratory of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong Province, Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary-Cerebral Resuscitation Research of Shandong Province, Shandong Provincial Engineering Laboratory for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chest Pain Center, Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Institute of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Qiran Chen
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Key Laboratory of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong Province, Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary-Cerebral Resuscitation Research of Shandong Province, Shandong Provincial Engineering Laboratory for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chest Pain Center, Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Institute of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Xuan Zhang
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Key Laboratory of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong Province, Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary-Cerebral Resuscitation Research of Shandong Province, Shandong Provincial Engineering Laboratory for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chest Pain Center, Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Institute of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Yuguo Chen
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Key Laboratory of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong Province, Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary-Cerebral Resuscitation Research of Shandong Province, Shandong Provincial Engineering Laboratory for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chest Pain Center, Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Institute of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Renjie Chen
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Feng Xu
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Key Laboratory of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong Province, Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary-Cerebral Resuscitation Research of Shandong Province, Shandong Provincial Engineering Laboratory for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chest Pain Center, Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Institute of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
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28
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Li Y, Varghese BM, Liu J, Bi P, Tong M. Association between High Ambient Temperatures and Road Crashes in an Australian City with Temperate Climate: A Time-Series Study, 2012-2021. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 20:6000. [PMID: 37297604 PMCID: PMC10252869 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20116000] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/16/2023] [Revised: 05/20/2023] [Accepted: 05/24/2023] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
(1) Background: High ambient temperatures are associated with increased morbidity and mortality rates, and some evidence suggests that high temperatures increase the risk of road crashes. However, little is known regarding the burden of road crashes attributable to no-optimal high temperatures in Australia. Therefore, this study examined the effects of high temperatures on road crashes using Adelaide in South Australia as a case study. (2) Methods: Ten-year daily time-series data on road crashes (n = 64,597) and weather during the warm season (October-March) were obtained between 2012 and 2021. A quasi-Poisson distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to quantify the cumulative effect of high temperatures over the previous five days. The associations and attributable burden at moderate and extreme temperature ranges were computed as relative risk (RR) and attributable fraction. (3) Results: There was a J-shaped association between high ambient temperature and the risk of road crashes during the warm season in Adelaide, and pronounced effects were observed for minimum temperatures. The highest risk was observed at a 1 day lag and lasting for 5 days. High temperatures were responsible for 0.79% (95% CI: 0.15-1.33%) of road crashes, with moderately high temperatures accounting for most of the burden compared with extreme temperatures (0.55% vs. 0.32%). (4) Conclusions: In the face of a warming climate, the finding draws the attention of road transport, policy, and public health planners to design preventive plans to reduce the risk of road crashes attributable to high temperatures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yannan Li
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia
| | | | - Jingwen Liu
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia
| | - Peng Bi
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia
| | - Michael Tong
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, ANU College of Health and Medicine, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
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29
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Jiang S. Compound Heat Vulnerability in the Record-Breaking Hot Summer of 2022 over the Yangtze River Delta Region. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 20:ijerph20085539. [PMID: 37107821 PMCID: PMC10138504 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20085539] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2023] [Revised: 03/19/2023] [Accepted: 04/12/2023] [Indexed: 05/11/2023]
Abstract
Hourly meteorological data and multisource socioeconomic data collected in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region were used to analyze its heat vulnerability during the record-breaking hot summer of 2022 in both daytime and nighttime. Over forty consecutive days, daytime temperatures exceeded 40 °C, and 58.4% of the YRD region experienced 400 h with temperatures hotter than 26 °C during the nighttime. Only 7.5% of the YRD region was under low heat risk during both daytime and nighttime. Strong heat risk combined with strong heat sensitivity and weak heat adaptability led to strong heat vulnerability during both daytime and nighttime in most areas (72.6%). Inhomogeneity in heat sensitivity and heat adaptability further aggravated the heterogeneity of heat vulnerability, leading to compound heat vulnerability in most regions. The ratios of heat-vulnerable areas generated by multiple causes were 67.7% and 79.3% during daytime and nighttime, respectively. For Zhejiang and Shanghai, projects designed to decrease the urban heat island effect and lower the local heat sensitivity are most important. For Jiangsu and Anhui, measures aiming to decrease the urban heat island effect and improve heat adaptability are most important. It is urgent to take efficient measures to address heat vulnerability during both daytime and nighttime.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shaojing Jiang
- Department of Geography and Spatial Information Techniques, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China;
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
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30
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Muresanu DF, Sharma A, Tian ZR, Lafuente JV, Nozari A, Feng L, Buzoianu AD, Wiklund L, Sharma HS. Nanowired Delivery of Cerebrolysin with Mesenchymal Stem Cells Attenuates Heat Stress-Induced Exacerbation of Neuropathology Following Brain Blast Injury. ADVANCES IN NEUROBIOLOGY 2023; 32:231-270. [PMID: 37480463 DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-32997-5_6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 07/24/2023]
Abstract
Blast brain injury (bBI) following explosive detonations in warfare is one of the prominent causes of multidimensional insults to the central nervous and other vital organs injury. Several military personnel suffered from bBI during the Middle East conflict at hot environment. The bBI largely occurs due to pressure waves, generation of heat together with release of shrapnel and gun powders explosion with penetrating and/or impact head trauma causing multiple brain damage. As a result, bBI-induced secondary injury causes breakdown of the blood-brain barrier (BBB) and edema formation that further results in neuronal, glial and axonal injuries. Previously, we reported endocrine imbalance and influence of diabetes on bBI-induced brain pathology that was significantly attenuated by nanowired delivery of cerebrolysin in model experiments. Cerebrolysin is a balanced composition of several neurotrophic factors, and active peptide fragment is capable of neuroprotection in several neurological insults. Exposure to heat stress alone causes BBB damage, edema formation and brain pathology. Thus, it is quite likely that hot environment further exacerbates the consequences of bBI. Thus, novel therapeutic strategies using nanodelivery of stem cell and cerebrolysin may further enhance superior neuroprotection in bBI at hot environment. Our observations are the first to show that combined nanowired delivery of mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) and cerebrolysin significantly attenuated exacerbation of bBI in hot environment and induced superior neuroprotection, not reported earlier. The possible mechanisms of neuroprotection with MSCs and cerebrolysin in bBI are discussed in the light of current literature.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dafin F Muresanu
- Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Medicine & Pharmacy, Cluj-Napoca, Romania
- "RoNeuro" Institute for Neurological Research and Diagnostic, Cluj-Napoca, Romania
| | - Aruna Sharma
- International Experimental Central Nervous System Injury & Repair (IECNSIR), Department of Surgical Sciences, Anesthesiology & Intensive Care Medicine, Uppsala University Hospital, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Z Ryan Tian
- Department of Chemistry & Biochemistry, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR, USA
| | - José Vicente Lafuente
- LaNCE, Department of Neuroscience, University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU), Leioa, Bizkaia, Spain
| | - Ala Nozari
- Anesthesiology & Intensive Care, Chobanian & Avedisian School of Medicine, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Lianyuan Feng
- Department of Neurology, Bethune International Peace Hospital, Zhongshan, Hebei Province, China
| | - Anca D Buzoianu
- Department of Clinical Pharmacology and Toxicology, "Iuliu Hatieganu" University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Cluj-Napoca, Romania
| | - Lars Wiklund
- International Experimental Central Nervous System Injury & Repair (IECNSIR), Department of Surgical Sciences, Anesthesiology & Intensive Care Medicine, Uppsala University Hospital, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Hari Shanker Sharma
- International Experimental Central Nervous System Injury & Repair (IECNSIR), Department of Surgical Sciences, Anesthesiology & Intensive Care Medicine, Uppsala University Hospital, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
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