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Psistaki K, Kouis P, Michanikou A, Yiallouros PK, Papatheodorou SI, Paschalidou AΚ. Temporal trends in temperature-related mortality and evidence for maladaptation to heat and cold in the Eastern Mediterranean region. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 943:173899. [PMID: 38862043 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173899] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2024] [Revised: 05/24/2024] [Accepted: 06/08/2024] [Indexed: 06/13/2024]
Abstract
The eastern Mediterranean region is characterized by rising temperature trends exceeding the corresponding global averages and is considered a climate change hot-spot. Although previous studies have thoroughly investigated the impact of extreme heat and cold on human mortality and morbidity, both for the current and future climate change scenarios, the temporal trends in temperature-related mortality or the potential historical adaptation to heat and cold extremes has never been studied in this region. This study focuses on cardiovascular mortality and assesses the temporal evolution of the Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT), as well as the disease-specific cold- and heat-attributable fraction of mortality in three typical eastern Mediterranean environments (Athens, Thessaloniki and Cyprus). Data on daily cardiovascular mortality (ICD-10 code: I00-I99) and meteorological parameters were available between 1999 and 2019 for Athens, 1999 to 2018 for Thessaloniki and 2004 to 2019 for Cyprus. Estimation of cardiovascular MMT and mortality fractions relied on time-series Poisson regressions with distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) controlling for seasonal and long-term trends, performed over a series of rolling sub-periods at each site. The results indicated that in Athens, the MMT decreased from 23 °C (67.5th percentile) in 1999-2007 to 21.8 °C (62nd percentile) in 2011-2019, while in Cyprus the MMT decreased from 26.3 °C (79th percentile) in 2004-2012 to 23.9 °C (66.5th percentile) in 2011-2019. In Thessaloniki, the decrease in MMT was rather negligible. In all regions under study, the fractions of mortality attributed to both cold and heat followed an upward trend throughout the years. In conclusion, the demonstrated increase in cold attributable fraction and the decreasing temporal trend of MMT across the examined sites are suggestive of maladaptation to extreme temperatures in regions with warm climate and highlight the need for relevant public health policies and interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kyriaki Psistaki
- Department of Forestry and Management of the Environment and Natural Resources, Democritus University of Thrace, Orestiada, Greece.
| | | | | | | | - Stefania I Papatheodorou
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA; Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Rutgers School of Public Health, New Brunswick, NJ, USA.
| | - Anastasia Κ Paschalidou
- Department of Forestry and Management of the Environment and Natural Resources, Democritus University of Thrace, Orestiada, Greece.
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Murage P, Macintyre LH, Heaviside C, Vardoulakis S, Neven F, Ruksana RH, Hajat S. Future temperature-related mortality in the UK under climate change scenarios: impact of population ageing and bias-corrected climate projections. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2024:119565. [PMID: 38971356 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2024.119565] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2024] [Revised: 06/26/2024] [Accepted: 07/04/2024] [Indexed: 07/08/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Exposure to heat and cold poses a serious threat to human health. In the UK, hotter summers, milder winters and an ageing population will shift how populations experience temperature-related health burdens. Estimating future burdens can provide insights on the drivers of temperature-related health effects and removing biases in temperature projections is an essential step to generating these estimates, however, the impact of various methods of correction is not well examined. METHODS We conducted a detailed health impact assessment by estimating mortality attributable to temperature at a baseline period (2007-2018) and in future decades (2030s, 2050s and 2070s). Epidemiological exposure-response relationships were derived for all England regions and UK countries, to quantify cold and heat risk, and temperature thresholds where mortality increases. UK climate projections 2018 (UKCP18)were bias-corrected using three techniques: correcting for mean bias (shift or SH), variability (bias-correction or BC) and extreme values (quantile mapping or QM). These were applied in the health impact assessment, alongside consideration of population ageing and growth to estimate future temperature-related mortality. FINDINGS In the absence of adaptation and assuming a high-end emissions scenario (RCP8.5), annual UK temperature-related mortality is projected to increase, with substantial differences in raw vs. calibrated projections for heat-related mortality, but smaller differences for cold-related mortality. The BC approach gave an estimated 29 deaths per 100,000 in the 2070s, compared with 50 per 100,000 using uncorrected future temperatures. We also found population ageing may exert a bigger impact on future mortality totals than the impact from future increases in temperature alone. Estimating future health burdens associated with heat and cold is an important step towards equipping decision-makers to deliver suitable care to the changing population. Correcting inherent biases in temperature projections can improve the accuracy of projected health burdens to support health protection measures and long-term resilience planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peninah Murage
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, England.
| | | | | | | | - Fuckar Neven
- University of Oxford, England; Barcelona Supercomputing Center, spain
| | | | - Shakoor Hajat
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, England
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Mougin L, Bougault V, Racinais S, Mountjoy ML, Stephenson B, Carter S, James LJ, Mears SA, Taylor L. Environmental challenges facing athletes, stakeholders and spectators at Paris 2024 Olympic and Paralympic Games: an evidence-based review of mitigation strategies and recommendations. Br J Sports Med 2024:bjsports-2024-108281. [PMID: 38955507 DOI: 10.1136/bjsports-2024-108281] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 06/11/2024] [Indexed: 07/04/2024]
Abstract
The upcoming Paris 2024 Olympic and Paralympic Games could face environmental challenges related to heat, air quality and water quality. These challenges will pose potential threats to athletes and impact thousands of stakeholders and millions of spectators. Recognising the multifaceted nature of these challenges, a range of strategies will be essential for mitigating adverse effects on participants, stakeholders and spectators alike. From personalised interventions for athletes and attendees to comprehensive measures implemented by organisers, a holistic approach is crucial to address these challenges and the possible interplay of heat, air and water quality factors during the event. This evidence-based review highlights various environmental challenges anticipated at Paris 2024, offering strategies applicable to athletes, stakeholders and spectators. Additionally, it provides recommendations for Local Organising Committees and the International Olympic Committee that may be applicable to future Games. In summary, the review offers solutions for consideration by the stakeholders responsible for and affected by the anticipated environmental challenges at Paris 2024.
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Affiliation(s)
- Loïs Mougin
- School of Sport, Exercise and Health Sciences, National Centre for Sport and Exercise Medicine, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK
| | | | - Sébastien Racinais
- Environmental Stress Unit, CREPS Montpellier Font-Romeu, Montpellier, France
- DMEM, UMR 866 INRAE / University of Montpellier, Montpellier, France
| | - Margo L Mountjoy
- Department of Family Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Ben Stephenson
- School of Sport, Exercise and Health Sciences, National Centre for Sport and Exercise Medicine, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK
- UK Sports Institute, Loughborough, UK
| | - Sarah Carter
- Faculty of Health, Exercise and Sports Science, Charles Darwin University, Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia
| | - Lewis J James
- School of Sport, Exercise and Health Sciences, National Centre for Sport and Exercise Medicine, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK
| | - Stephen A Mears
- School of Sport, Exercise and Health Sciences, National Centre for Sport and Exercise Medicine, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK
| | - Lee Taylor
- School of Sport, Exercise and Health Sciences, National Centre for Sport and Exercise Medicine, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK
- University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
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Hundessa S, Huang W, Zhao Q, Wu Y, Wen B, Alahmad B, Armstrong B, Gasparrini A, Sera F, Tong S, Madureira J, Kyselý J, Schwartz J, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Hales S, Johnson A, Li S, Guo Y. Global and Regional Cardiovascular Mortality Attributable to Nonoptimal Temperatures Over Time. J Am Coll Cardiol 2024; 83:2276-2287. [PMID: 38839202 DOI: 10.1016/j.jacc.2024.03.425] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2024] [Revised: 03/21/2024] [Accepted: 03/22/2024] [Indexed: 06/07/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The association between nonoptimal temperatures and cardiovascular mortality risk is recognized. However, a comprehensive global assessment of this burden is lacking. OBJECTIVES The goal of this study was to assess global cardiovascular mortality burden attributable to nonoptimal temperatures and investigate spatiotemporal trends. METHODS Using daily cardiovascular deaths and temperature data from 32 countries, a 3-stage analytical approach was applied. First, location-specific temperature-mortality associations were estimated, considering nonlinearity and delayed effects. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was developed between location-specific effect estimates and 5 meta-predictors. Third, cardiovascular deaths associated with nonoptimal, cold, and hot temperatures for each global grid (55 km × 55 km resolution) were estimated, and temporal trends from 2000 to 2019 were explored. RESULTS Globally, 1,801,513 (95% empirical CI: 1,526,632-2,202,831) annual cardiovascular deaths were associated with nonoptimal temperatures, constituting 8.86% (95% empirical CI: 7.51%-12.32%) of total cardiovascular mortality corresponding to 26 deaths per 100,000 population. Cold-related deaths accounted for 8.20% (95% empirical CI: 6.74%-11.57%), whereas heat-related deaths accounted for 0.66% (95% empirical CI: 0.49%-0.98%). The mortality burden varied significantly across regions, with the highest excess mortality rates observed in Central Asia and Eastern Europe. From 2000 to 2019, cold-related excess death ratios decreased, while heat-related ratios increased, resulting in an overall decline in temperature-related deaths. Southeastern Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Oceania observed the greatest reduction, while Southern Asia experienced an increase. The Americas and several regions in Asia and Europe displayed fluctuating temporal patterns. CONCLUSIONS Nonoptimal temperatures substantially contribute to cardiovascular mortality, with heterogeneous spatiotemporal patterns. Effective mitigation and adaptation strategies are crucial, especially given the increasing heat-related cardiovascular deaths amid climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Samuel Hundessa
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Wenzhong Huang
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Qi Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Yao Wu
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Bo Wen
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Barrak Alahmad
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Ben Armstrong
- Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Environment & Health Modelling (EHM) Lab, Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications "G. Parenti", University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Shilu Tong
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia; National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Joana Madureira
- Environmental Health Department, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal; EPIUnit-Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal; Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Populacional (ITR), Porto, Portugal
| | - Jan Kyselý
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Joel Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
- Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom; Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Simon Hales
- Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand
| | - Amanda Johnson
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Shanshan Li
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
| | - Yuming Guo
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
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Bussalleu A, Hoek G, Kloog I, Probst-Hensch N, Röösli M, de Hoogh K. Modelling Europe-wide fine resolution daily ambient temperature for 2003-2020 using machine learning. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 928:172454. [PMID: 38636867 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172454] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2023] [Revised: 04/04/2024] [Accepted: 04/11/2024] [Indexed: 04/20/2024]
Abstract
To improve our understanding of the health impacts of high and low temperatures, epidemiological studies require spatiotemporally resolved ambient temperature (Ta) surfaces. Exposure assessment over various European cities for multi-cohort studies requires high resolution and harmonized exposures over larger spatiotemporal extents. Our aim was to develop daily mean, minimum and maximum ambient temperature surfaces with a 1 × 1 km resolution for Europe for the 2003-2020 period. We used a two-stage random forest modelling approach. Random forest was used to (1) impute missing satellite derived Land Surface Temperature (LST) using vegetation and weather variables and to (2) use the gap-filled LST together with land use and meteorological variables to model spatial and temporal variation in Ta measured at weather stations. To assess performance, we validated these models using random and block validation. In addition to global performance, and to assess model stability, we reported model performance at a higher granularity (local). Globally, our models explained on average more than 81 % and 93 % of the variability in the block validation sets for LST and Ta respectively. Average RMSE was 1.3, 1.9 and 1.7 °C for mean, min and max ambient temperature respectively, indicating a generally good performance. For Ta models, local performance was stable across most of the spatiotemporal extent, but showed lower performance in areas with low observation density. Overall, model stability and performance were lower when using block validation compared to random validation. The presented models will facilitate harmonized high-resolution exposure assignment for multi-cohort studies at a European scale.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alonso Bussalleu
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
| | - Gerard Hoek
- Division of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Itai Kloog
- Department of Geography and Environmental Development, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva, Israel
| | - Nicole Probst-Hensch
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Martin Röösli
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Kees de Hoogh
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
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Dyer GMC, Khomenko S, Adlakha D, Anenberg S, Behnisch M, Boeing G, Esperon-Rodriguez M, Gasparrini A, Khreis H, Kondo MC, Masselot P, McDonald RI, Montana F, Mitchell R, Mueller N, Nawaz MO, Pisoni E, Prieto-Curiel R, Rezaei N, Taubenböck H, Tonne C, Velázquez-Cortés D, Nieuwenhuijsen M. Exploring the nexus of urban form, transport, environment and health in large-scale urban studies: A state-of-the-art scoping review. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2024; 257:119324. [PMID: 38844028 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2024.119324] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/25/2024] [Revised: 05/30/2024] [Accepted: 05/31/2024] [Indexed: 06/15/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND As the world becomes increasingly urbanised, there is recognition that public and planetary health relies upon a ubiquitous transition to sustainable cities. Disentanglement of the complex pathways of urban design, environmental exposures, and health, and the magnitude of these associations, remains a challenge. A state-of-the-art account of large-scale urban health studies is required to shape future research priorities and equity- and evidence-informed policies. OBJECTIVES The purpose of this review was to synthesise evidence from large-scale urban studies focused on the interaction between urban form, transport, environmental exposures, and health. This review sought to determine common methodologies applied, limitations, and future opportunities for improved research practice. METHODS Based on a literature search, 2958 articles were reviewed that covered three themes of: urban form; urban environmental health; and urban indicators. Studies were prioritised for inclusion that analysed at least 90 cities to ensure broad geographic representation and generalisability. Of the initially identified studies, following expert consultation and exclusion criteria, 66 were included. RESULTS The complexity of the urban ecosystem on health was evidenced from the context dependent effects of urban form variables on environmental exposures and health. Compact city designs were generally advantageous for reducing harmful environmental exposure and promoting health, with some exceptions. Methodological heterogeneity was indicative of key urban research challenges; notable limitations included exposure and health data at varied spatial scales and resolutions, limited availability of local-level sociodemographic data, and the lack of consensus on robust methodologies that encompass best research practice. CONCLUSION Future urban environmental health research for evidence-informed urban planning and policies requires a multi-faceted approach. Advances in geospatial and AI-driven techniques and urban indicators offer promising developments; however, there remains a wider call for increased data availability at local-levels, transparent and robust methodologies of large-scale urban studies, and greater exploration of urban health vulnerabilities and inequities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Georgia M C Dyer
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Doctor Aiguader 88, 08003, Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Doctor Aiguader 88, 08003, Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Melchor Fern'andez Almagro, 3-5, 28029, Madrid, Spain
| | - Sasha Khomenko
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Doctor Aiguader 88, 08003, Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Doctor Aiguader 88, 08003, Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Melchor Fern'andez Almagro, 3-5, 28029, Madrid, Spain
| | - Deepti Adlakha
- Delft University of Technology, Mekelweg 5, 2628, Delft, Netherlands
| | - Susan Anenberg
- Environmental and Occupational Health Department, George Washington University, Milken Institute School of Public Health, 20052, New Hampshire Avenue, Washington, District of Colombia, United States
| | - Martin Behnisch
- Leibniz Institute of Ecological Urban and Regional Development, Weberpl 1, 01217, Dresden, Germany
| | - Geoff Boeing
- University of Southern California, 90007, Los Angeles, United States
| | - Manuel Esperon-Rodriguez
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW, 2751, Australia; School of Science, Western Sydney University, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW, 2751, Australia
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Environment & Health Modelling (EHM) Lab, Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, WC1E 7HT, London, United Kingdom
| | - Haneen Khreis
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, Cambridge University, CB2 0AH, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Michelle C Kondo
- USDA-Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 100 North 20th Street, Ste 205, 19103, Philadelphia, PA, United States
| | - Pierre Masselot
- Environment & Health Modelling (EHM) Lab, Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, WC1E 7HT, London, United Kingdom
| | - Robert I McDonald
- The Nature Conservancy, 4245 North Fairfax Drive Arlington, 22203, Virginia, United States
| | - Federica Montana
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Doctor Aiguader 88, 08003, Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Doctor Aiguader 88, 08003, Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Melchor Fern'andez Almagro, 3-5, 28029, Madrid, Spain
| | - Rich Mitchell
- Institute of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, 90 Byres Road, Glasgow, G20 0TY, United Kingdom
| | - Natalie Mueller
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Doctor Aiguader 88, 08003, Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Doctor Aiguader 88, 08003, Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Melchor Fern'andez Almagro, 3-5, 28029, Madrid, Spain
| | - M Omar Nawaz
- Environmental and Occupational Health Department, George Washington University, Milken Institute School of Public Health, 20052, New Hampshire Avenue, Washington, District of Colombia, United States
| | - Enrico Pisoni
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), 2749, Ispra, Italy
| | | | - Nazanin Rezaei
- University of California Santa Cruz, 1156 High Street, 95064, California, United States
| | - Hannes Taubenböck
- German Aerospace Centre (DLR), Earth Observation Center (EOC), 82234, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany; Institute for Geography and Geology, Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg, 97074, Würzburg, Germany
| | - Cathryn Tonne
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Doctor Aiguader 88, 08003, Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Doctor Aiguader 88, 08003, Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Melchor Fern'andez Almagro, 3-5, 28029, Madrid, Spain
| | - Daniel Velázquez-Cortés
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Doctor Aiguader 88, 08003, Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Doctor Aiguader 88, 08003, Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Melchor Fern'andez Almagro, 3-5, 28029, Madrid, Spain
| | - Mark Nieuwenhuijsen
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), Doctor Aiguader 88, 08003, Barcelona, Spain; Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Doctor Aiguader 88, 08003, Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Melchor Fern'andez Almagro, 3-5, 28029, Madrid, Spain.
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Ning Z, He S, Liu Q, Ma H, Ma C, Wu J, Ma Y, Zhang Y. Effects of the interaction between cold spells and fine particulate matter on mortality risk in Xining: a case-crossover study at high altitude. Front Public Health 2024; 12:1414945. [PMID: 38813422 PMCID: PMC11133570 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1414945] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/09/2024] [Accepted: 05/02/2024] [Indexed: 05/31/2024] Open
Abstract
Background With global climate change, the health impacts of cold spells and air pollution caused by PM2.5 are increasingly aggravated, especially in high-altitude areas, which are particularly sensitive. Exploring their interactions is crucial for public health. Methods We collected time-series data on meteorology, air pollution, and various causes of death in Xining. This study employed a time-stratified case-crossover design and conditional logistic regression models to explore the association between cold spells, PM2.5 exposure, and various causes of death, and to assess their interaction. We quantitatively analyzed the interaction using the relative excess odds due to interaction (REOI), attributable proportion due to interaction (AP), and synergy index (S). Moreover, we conducted stratified analyses by average altitude, sex, age, and educational level to identify potential vulnerable groups. Results We found significant associations between cold spells, PM2.5, and various causes of death, with noticeable effects on respiratory disease mortality and COPD mortality. We identified significant synergistic effects (REOI>0, AP > 0, S > 1) between cold spells and PM2.5 on various causes of death, which generally weakened with a stricter definition of cold spells and longer duration. It was estimated that up to 9.56% of non-accidental deaths could be attributed to concurrent exposure to cold spells and high-level PM2.5. High-altitude areas, males, the older adults, and individuals with lower educational levels were more sensitive. The interaction mainly varied among age groups, indicating significant impacts and a synergistic action that increased mortality risk. Conclusion Our study found that in high-altitude areas, exposure to cold spells and PM2.5 significantly increased the mortality risk from specific diseases among the older adults, males, and those with lower educational levels, and there was an interaction between cold spells and PM2.5. The results underscore the importance of reducing these exposures to protect public health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhenxu Ning
- Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Qinghai University, Xining, China
| | - Shuzhen He
- Xining Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Xining, China
| | - Qiansheng Liu
- Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Qinghai University, Xining, China
| | - Haibin Ma
- Xining Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Xining, China
| | - Chunguang Ma
- Xining Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Xining, China
| | - Jing Wu
- Xining Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Xining, China
| | - Yanjun Ma
- Qinghai Institute of Health Sciences, Xining, China
| | - Youxia Zhang
- Qinghai Province Cardio Cerebrovascular Disease Specialist Hospital, Xining, China
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8
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Cao L, Cai J, Gong Y, Bao Q, Hu J, Tang N. Health effect of public sports services and public health services: empirical evidence from China. Front Public Health 2024; 12:1320216. [PMID: 38803807 PMCID: PMC11128566 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1320216] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/12/2023] [Accepted: 04/25/2024] [Indexed: 05/29/2024] Open
Abstract
There is no clear explanation for the extraordinary rebound in China's population mortality over the past decade. This paper utilizes panel data from 31 Chinese provinces from 2010 to 2020 to determine the distinct impacts of public sports services (PSS), public health services (PMS), and their interaction on population mortality. Empirical results show that public sports services significantly reduce mortality. Every unit increase in public sports services reduces mortality by about 2.3%. It is characterized by delayed realization. Public health services were surprisingly associated with a rebound in mortality. Further studies found strong health effect from interaction of public sports and health services. The effect was significantly strengthened in areas with fewer extreme temperatures or developed economy. The findings have important policy implications for the high-quality development of public sports and health services. It also emphasizes integration of sports and medicine and mitigates health risks associated with extreme temperatures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lin Cao
- School of Physical Education, Hunan University of Science and Technology, Xiangtan, China
| | - Jianguang Cai
- School of Physical Education, Hunan University of Science and Technology, Xiangtan, China
| | - Yanping Gong
- Business School, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin, China
| | - Qingqing Bao
- Outdoor Sports Academy, Guilin Tourism University, Guilin, China
| | - Junrong Hu
- Department of Sports, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin, China
| | - Ningxiao Tang
- School of Physical Education, Hunan University of Science and Technology, Xiangtan, China
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Park J, Kim A, Bell ML, Kim H, Lee W. Heat and hospital admission via the emergency department for people with intellectual disability, autism, and mental disorders in South Korea: a nationwide, time-stratified, case-crossover study. Lancet Psychiatry 2024; 11:359-367. [PMID: 38631786 DOI: 10.1016/s2215-0366(24)00067-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2024] [Revised: 02/25/2024] [Accepted: 02/26/2024] [Indexed: 04/19/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Given the anticipated increase in ambient temperature due to climate change, the hazardous effects of heat on health have been extensively studied; however, its impact on people with intellectual disability, autism, and mental illness is largely unknown. We aimed to estimate the association between heat and hospitalisation through the emergency department (ED) among people with these mental disorders. METHODS In this nationwide study, we used data from the National Health Insurance Database (NHID) of the National Health Insurance Service, the single universal insurer in South Korea, the claims data for which is based on the ICD-10. We included individuals with identified intellectual disability, autism, and mental disorders (including schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, recurrent depressive disorder, schizoaffective disorder and persistent obsessive-compulsive disorder, Tourette's disorder, and narcolepsy) and we established two control groups of people without these disorders: one including 1 million systematically sampled individuals, and one matched to the cohort based on sex, age, and income group. Data on hospital admission via the ED were obtained from the NHID, including the primary cause of admission and corresponding medical costs, for the warm season (June-September) of the period 2006-2021. We used the Google Earth Engine with the ERA5-Land dataset to collect data on the daily mean temperature. We applied a time-stratified case-crossover design using a distributed lag non-linear model and performed a conditional logistic regression. The risk ratio was estimated as the odds ratio (OR) with calculated odds at the 99th percentile temperature compared with that at the local 75th percentile temperature. We did not include people with lived experience of mental illness in this study. FINDINGS Of the 456 946 people with intellectual disability, autism, or mental disorder in the NHID records, 99 845 were admitted to the ED, including 59 821 (59·9%) males and 40 024 (40·1%) females, and including 29 192 people with intellectual disability, 1428 people with autism, and 69 225 people with mental disorders. We were not able to collect data on ethnicity. The mean age at ED admission was 42·1 years (SD 17·9, range 0-102) for people with intellectual disability, 18·6 years (SD 10·4, range 1-72) for people with autism, and 50·8 years (SD 11·9, range 2-94) for people with mental disorders. The heat OR (odds at the 99th percentile vs 75th percentile of temperature) of ED admission was 1·23 (95% CI 1·11-1·36) for intellectual disability, 1·06 (0·68-1·63) for autism, and 1·20 (1·12-1·29) for mental disorders. People with intellectual disability, female individuals, people living in rural areas, or those with a low-income status were at increased risk of ED admission due to heat. The risk of ED admission due to genitourinary diseases was higher than that from other causes. Annual increase in medical costs attributable to heat among people with intellectual disability, autism, and mental disorders was US$ 224 970 per 100 000 person-years (95% empirical CI 139 784-305 770). INTERPRETATION People with intellectual disability, autism, and mental disorders should be included in groups considered at a high-risk for heat exposure, and heat adaptation policies should be implemented with consideration of these groups and their needs. FUNDING The National Research Foundation of Korea, Korean Ministry of Environment, and Korean Ministry of Education. TRANSLATION For the Korean translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jinah Park
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Ayoung Kim
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Michelle L Bell
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven CT, USA
| | - Ho Kim
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea; Institute of Health and 14 Environment, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Whanhee Lee
- School of Biomedical Convergence Engineering, College of Information and Biomedical Engineering, Pusan National University, Yangsan, South Korea.
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Shrestha RK, Sevcenco I, Casari P, Ngo H, Erickson A, Lavoie M, Hinshaw D, Henry B, Ye X. Estimating the impacts of nonoptimal temperatures on mortality: A study in British Columbia, Canada, 2001-2021. Environ Epidemiol 2024; 8:e303. [PMID: 38617423 PMCID: PMC11008660 DOI: 10.1097/ee9.0000000000000303] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/12/2023] [Accepted: 02/14/2024] [Indexed: 04/16/2024] Open
Abstract
Background Studies show that more than 5.1 million deaths annually are attributed to nonoptimal temperatures, including extreme cold and extreme heat. However, those studies mostly report average estimates across large geographical areas. The health risks attributed to nonoptimal temperatures in British Columbia (BC) are reported incompletely or limit the study area to urban centers. In this study, we aim to estimate the attributable deaths linked to nonoptimal temperatures in all five regional health authorities (RHAs) of BC from 2001 to 2021. Methods We applied the widely used distributed lag nonlinear modeling approach to estimate temperature-mortality association in the RHAs of BC, using daily all-cause deaths and 1 × 1 km gridded daily mean temperature. We evaluated the model by comparing the model-estimated attributable number of deaths during the 2021 heat dome to the number of heat-related deaths confirmed by the British Columbia Coroners Service. Results Overall, between 2001 and 2021, we estimate that 7.17% (95% empirical confidence interval = 3.15, 10.32) of deaths in BC were attributed to nonoptimal temperatures, the majority of which are attributed to cold. On average, the mortality rates attributable to moderate cold, moderate heat, extreme cold, and extreme heat were 47.04 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 45.83, 48.26), 0.94 (95% CI = 0.81, 1.08), 2.88 (95% CI = 2.05, 3.71), and 3.10 (95% CI = 1.79, 4.4) per 100,000 population per year, respectively. Conclusions Our results show significant spatial variability in deaths attributable to nonoptimal temperatures across BC. We find that the effect of extreme temperatures is significantly less compared to milder nonoptimal temperatures between 2001 and 2021. However, the increased contribution of extreme heat cannot be ruled out in the near future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rudra K. Shrestha
- Office of the Provincial Health Officer, Ministry of Health, Government of British Columbia, Victoria, BC, Canada
- School of Environment and Sustainability, Royal Roads University, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Ioana Sevcenco
- Office of the Provincial Health Officer, Ministry of Health, Government of British Columbia, Victoria, BC, Canada
| | - Priscila Casari
- Office of the Provincial Health Officer, Ministry of Health, Government of British Columbia, Victoria, BC, Canada
| | - Henry Ngo
- Office of the Provincial Health Officer, Ministry of Health, Government of British Columbia, Victoria, BC, Canada
- Data Science and Health Research Cluster, Faculty of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Anders Erickson
- Health Protection Branch, Population and Public Health Division, Ministry of Health, Government of British Columbia, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
- School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Martin Lavoie
- Office of the Provincial Health Officer, Ministry of Health, Government of British Columbia, Victoria, BC, Canada
- School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Deena Hinshaw
- Office of the Provincial Health Officer, Ministry of Health, Government of British Columbia, Victoria, BC, Canada
| | - Bonnie Henry
- Office of the Provincial Health Officer, Ministry of Health, Government of British Columbia, Victoria, BC, Canada
- School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Xibiao Ye
- Office of the Provincial Health Officer, Ministry of Health, Government of British Columbia, Victoria, BC, Canada
- School of Health Information Science, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
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11
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Wang W, Wang F, Yang C, Wang J, Liang Z, Zhang F, Li P, Zhang L. Associations between heat waves and chronic kidney disease in China: The modifying role of land cover. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2024; 186:108657. [PMID: 38626496 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108657] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/26/2024] [Revised: 04/09/2024] [Accepted: 04/11/2024] [Indexed: 04/18/2024]
Abstract
The increasing frequency of heat waves under the global urbanization and climate change background poses elevating risks of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Nevertheless, there has been no evidence on associations between long-term exposures to heat waves and CKD as well as the modifying effects of land cover patterns. Based on a national representative population-based survey on CKD covering 47,086 adults and high spatial resolution datasets on temperature and land cover data, we found that annual days of exposure to heat waves were associated with increased odds of CKD prevalence. For one day/year increases in HW_975_4d (above 97.5 % of annual maximum temperature and lasting for at least 4 consecutive days), the odds ratio (OR) of CKD was 1.14 (95 %CI: 1.12, 1.15). Meanwhile, stronger associations were observed in regions with lower urbanicity [rural: 1.14 (95 %CI: 1.12, 1.16) vs urban: 1.07 (95 %CI: 1.03, 1.11), Pinteraction < 0.001], lower water body coverage [lower: 1.14 (95 %CI: 1.12, 1.16) vs higher: 1.02 (95 %CI: 0.98, 1.05), Pinteraction < 0.001], and lower impervious area coverage [lower: 1.16 (95 %CI: 1.14, 1.18) vs higher: 1.06 (95 %CI: 1.03, 1.10), Pinteraction = 0.008]. In addition, this study found disparities in modifying effects of water bodies and impervious areas in rural and urban settings. In rural regions, the associations between heat waves and CKD prevalence showed a consistent decreasing trend with increases in both proportions of water bodies and impervious areas (Pinteraction < 0.05). Nevertheless, in urban regions, we observed significant effect modification by water bodies, but not by impervious areas. Our study indicates the need for targeted land planning as part of adapting to the kidney impacts of heat waves, with a focus on urbanization in rural regions, as well as water body construction and utilization in both rural and urban regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wanzhou Wang
- National Institute of Health Data Science at Peking University, Beijing 100191, China; Institute of Medical Technology, Peking University Health Science Center, Beijing 100191, China
| | - Fulin Wang
- National Institute of Health Data Science at Peking University, Beijing 100191, China; Institute of Medical Technology, Peking University Health Science Center, Beijing 100191, China
| | - Chao Yang
- Renal Division, Department of Medicine, Peking University First Hospital, Peking University Institute of Nephrology, Beijing 100034, China; Research Units of Diagnosis and Treatment of Immune-Mediated Kidney Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 100034, China; Advanced Institute of Information Technology, Peking University, Hangzhou 311215, China
| | - Jinwei Wang
- Renal Division, Department of Medicine, Peking University First Hospital, Peking University Institute of Nephrology, Beijing 100034, China; Key Laboratory of Chronic Kidney Disease Prevention and Treatment, Peking University, Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China, Beijing, China
| | - Ze Liang
- Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
| | - Feifei Zhang
- National Institute of Health Data Science at Peking University, Beijing 100191, China; Institute of Medical Technology, Peking University Health Science Center, Beijing 100191, China
| | - Pengfei Li
- Advanced Institute of Information Technology, Peking University, Hangzhou 311215, China
| | - Luxia Zhang
- National Institute of Health Data Science at Peking University, Beijing 100191, China; Renal Division, Department of Medicine, Peking University First Hospital, Peking University Institute of Nephrology, Beijing 100034, China; Research Units of Diagnosis and Treatment of Immune-Mediated Kidney Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 100034, China; Advanced Institute of Information Technology, Peking University, Hangzhou 311215, China.
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12
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Park J, Kim A, Kim Y, Choi M, Yoon TH, Kang C, Kang HJ, Oh J, Bell ML, Kim H, Lee W. Association between heat and hospital admissions in people with disabilities in South Korea: a nationwide, case-crossover study. Lancet Planet Health 2024; 8:e217-e224. [PMID: 38580423 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(24)00027-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/16/2023] [Revised: 01/23/2024] [Accepted: 02/16/2024] [Indexed: 04/07/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Despite extensive findings on the hazardous impacts of environmental heat exposure, little is known about the effect on people with disabilities. This study aimed to estimate the association between environmental heat exposure and emergency department admissions for people with disabilities compared with people without disabilities. METHODS In this nationwide, case-crossover study, we linked data on emergency department admissions (cases) for any cause in the warm season in South Korea from the Korean National Health Insurance Service (NHIS)-National Sample Cohort database (a nationally representative database of 1 million systematically sampled beneficiaries covering all ages) from Jan 1, 2002, to Dec 31, 2019, and short-term daily mean temperature exposure (measured via Google Earth Engine at a 9 km spatial grid, aggregated to district). We defined beneficiaries with disabilities as those who were registered as disabled in the NHIS; disabilities included in our study were physical disability, brain lesion disorders, blindness or vision loss, and deafness or hearing loss. Other types of disability were not included for confidentiality reasons. A time-stratified case-crossover design, in which participants served as their own control, was used with conditional logistic regression to estimate the association between heat and emergency department admissions in people with and without disabilities. FINDINGS 23 792 emergency department admissions were recorded for 59 527 people with disabilities. Of these 23 792 admissions, 10 234 (43·0%) individuals were female and 13 558 (57·0%) were male. The odds ratio (OR) of emergency department admissions associated with heat (99th temperature percentile vs 75th percentile) was 1·15 (95% CI 1·07-1·24) in people with disabilities and 1·06 (1·04-1·09) in people without disabilities. The annual excess number of emergency department admissions attributable to heat per 100 000 persons-years was 27·81 admissions (95% CI 9·20-45·69) and excess medical costs were US$638 739·47 (95% CI 201 900·12-1 059 641·87) in people with disabilities; these values were more than four times that of the non-disabled population. People with brain lesion disorders, people with severe physical disabilities, female individuals, and those aged 65 years or older showed higher heat risks. The risks of emergency department admissions due to mental disorder (1·89, 95% CI 1·18-3·00) and respiratory diseases (1·34, 1·06-1·70) also showed higher heat risks than for the other two analysed causes of admission (cardiovascular and genitourinary diseases). INTERPRETATION Heat was associated with increased risk of emergency department admissions for people with and without disabilities, but the risk appeared to be higher for those with disabilities. These results can inform policy makers when establishing action plans for people with disabilities. FUNDING National Research Foundation of Korea, the South Korean Ministry of Environment, and the South Korean Ministry of Education.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jinah Park
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Ayoung Kim
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Yoonhee Kim
- Department of Global Environmental Health, Graduate School of Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Minhyeok Choi
- Department of Preventive Medicine and Occupational and Environmental Medicine, School of Medicine, Pusan National University, Pusan National University Yangsan Hospital, Yangsan, South Korea
| | - Tae Ho Yoon
- Department of Preventive Medicine and Occupational and Environmental Medicine, School of Medicine, Pusan National University, Pusan National University Yangsan Hospital, Yangsan, South Korea
| | - Cinoo Kang
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Hee Jung Kang
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea; Institute of Aging, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea; National Pension Service, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Jieun Oh
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Michelle L Bell
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Ho Kim
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea; Institute of Health and Environment, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea.
| | - Whanhee Lee
- Data Science, School of Biomedical Convergence Engineering, Pusan National University, Yangsan, South Korea.
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13
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Coker ES, Stone SL, McTigue E, Yao JA, Brigham EP, Schwandt M, Henderson SB. Climate change and health: rethinking public health messaging for wildfire smoke and extreme heat co-exposures. Front Public Health 2024; 12:1324662. [PMID: 38590812 PMCID: PMC10999651 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1324662] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/19/2023] [Accepted: 03/04/2024] [Indexed: 04/10/2024] Open
Abstract
With the growing climate change crisis, public health agencies and practitioners must increasingly develop guidance documents addressing the public health risks and protective measures associated with multi-hazard events. Our Policy and Practice Review aims to assess current public health guidance and related messaging about co-exposure to wildfire smoke and extreme heat and recommend strengthened messaging to better protect people from these climate-sensitive hazards. We reviewed public health messaging published by governmental agencies between January 2013 and May 2023 in Canada and the United States. Publicly available resources were eligible if they discussed the co-occurrence of wildfire smoke and extreme heat and mentioned personal interventions (protective measures) to prevent exposure to either hazard. We reviewed local, regional, and national governmental agency messaging resources, such as online fact sheets and guidance documents. We assessed these resources according to four public health messaging themes, including (1) discussions around vulnerable groups and risk factors, (2) symptoms associated with these exposures, (3) health risks of each exposure individually, and (4) health risks from combined exposure. Additionally, we conducted a detailed assessment of current messaging about measures to mitigate exposure. We found 15 online public-facing resources that provided health messaging about co-exposure; however, only one discussed all four themes. We identified 21 distinct protective measures mentioned across the 15 resources. There is considerable variability and inconsistency regarding the types and level of detail across described protective measures. Of the identified 21 protective measures, nine may protect against both hazards simultaneously, suggesting opportunities to emphasize these particular messages to address both hazards together. More precise, complete, and coordinated public health messaging would protect against climate-sensitive health outcomes attributable to wildfire smoke and extreme heat co-exposures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eric S. Coker
- Environmental Health Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Susan Lyon Stone
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, United States
| | - Erin McTigue
- Air and Radiation Division, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Region, Seattle, WA, United States
| | - Jiayun Angela Yao
- Environmental Health Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Emily P. Brigham
- Division of Respiratory Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
- Vancouver Coastal Health Research Institute, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Michael Schwandt
- Office of the Chief Medical Health Officer, Vancouver Coastal Health Authority, Vancouver, BC, Canada
- School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Sarah B. Henderson
- Environmental Health Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, BC, Canada
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14
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Boretti A. Revisiting Masselot et al. (2023): assessing the share of excess mortality linked to cold and hot weather in Europe. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2024; 68:527-533. [PMID: 38085338 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-023-02598-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/28/2023] [Revised: 11/18/2023] [Accepted: 12/07/2023] [Indexed: 02/15/2024]
Abstract
While a considerable focus has been placed on excess fatalities during hot weather, a reanalysis of European data reveals that excess mortality attributed to cold weather is significantly more pronounced, surpassing that linked to hot weather by an order of magnitude. These ratios are noteworthy: 56.32 for the United Kingdom, 43.56 for Northern Europe, 8.49 for Western Europe, 12.41 for Eastern Europe, 5.50 for Southern Europe, and an overall ratio of 10.09 for Europe as a whole. These ratios of cold to hot excess deaths indicate a significant disparity in the number of excess deaths caused by cold weather compared to those caused by hot weather. This significant difference underscores the greater health risks and vulnerabilities associated with cold weather.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alberto Boretti
- Melbourne Institute of Technology, 288 Latrobe Street, Melbourne, VIC, 3000, Australia.
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15
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Giannaros C, Agathangelidis I, Galanaki E, Cartalis C, Kotroni V, Lagouvardos K, Giannaros TM, Matzarakis A. Hourly values of an advanced human-biometeorological index for diverse populations from 1991 to 2020 in Greece. Sci Data 2024; 11:76. [PMID: 38228665 PMCID: PMC10791640 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-024-02923-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2023] [Accepted: 01/05/2024] [Indexed: 01/18/2024] Open
Abstract
Existing assessments of the thermal-related impact of the environment on humans are often limited by the use of data that are not representative of the population exposure and/or not consider a human centred approach. Here, we combine high resolution regional retrospective analysis (reanalysis), population data and human energy balance modelling, in order to produce a human thermal bioclimate dataset capable of addressing the above limitations. The dataset consists of hourly, population-weighted values of an advanced human-biometeorological index, namely the modified physiologically equivalent temperature (mPET), at fine-scale administrative level and for 10 different population groups. It also includes the main environmental drivers of mPET at the same spatiotemporal resolution, covering the period from 1991 to 2020. The study area is Greece, but the provided code allows for the ease replication of the dataset in countries included in the domains of the climate reanalysis and population data, which focus over Europe. Thus, the presented data and code can be exploited for human-biometeorological and environmental epidemiological studies in the European continent.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christos Giannaros
- National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Department of Physics, 15784, Athens, Greece.
| | - Ilias Agathangelidis
- National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Department of Physics, 15784, Athens, Greece
| | - Elissavet Galanaki
- National Observatory of Athens, Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, Palea Penteli, 15236, Athens, Greece
| | - Constantinos Cartalis
- National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Department of Physics, 15784, Athens, Greece
| | - Vassiliki Kotroni
- National Observatory of Athens, Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, Palea Penteli, 15236, Athens, Greece
| | - Konstantinos Lagouvardos
- National Observatory of Athens, Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, Palea Penteli, 15236, Athens, Greece
| | - Theodore M Giannaros
- National Observatory of Athens, Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, Palea Penteli, 15236, Athens, Greece
| | - Andreas Matzarakis
- German Meteorological Service (DWD), Research Centre Human Biometeorology, D-79085, Freiburg, Germany
- University of Freiburg, Institute of Earth and Environmental Sciences, D-79104, Freiburg, Germany
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16
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Lipponen AH, Mikkonen S, Kollanus V, Tiittanen P, Lanki T. Increase in summertime ambient temperature is associated with decreased sick leave risk in Helsinki, Finland. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2024; 240:117396. [PMID: 37863162 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.117396] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2023] [Revised: 09/06/2023] [Accepted: 10/11/2023] [Indexed: 10/22/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Climate change has increased attention to the health effects of high ambient temperatures and heatwaves worldwide. Both cause-specific mortality and hospital admissions are studied widely, mainly concentrating on warmer climates, but studies focusing on more subtle health effects and cold climates lack. This study investigated the effect of summertime daily ambient temperatures and heatwaves on sick leaves in the employed population in Helsinki, Finland, a Nordic country with a relatively cold climate. METHODS We obtained from the City of Helsinki personnel register data on sick leaves for the summer months (June-August) of 2002-2017. We estimated the overall cumulative association of all and short (maximum 3-day) sick leaves with daily mean temperature over a 21-day lag period using a negative binomial regression model coupled with a penalized distributed lag non-linear model (penalized DLNM). The association of sick leaves with heatwaves (cut-off temperature 20.8 °C), and prolonged heatwaves, was estimated using a negative binomial regression model coupled with DLNM. We adjusted the time series model for potential confounders, such as air pollution, relative humidity, time trends, and holidays. RESULTS Increasing daily temperature tended to be associated with decreased overall cumulative risk of sick leaves and short sick leaves over a 21-day lag period. In addition, heatwaves and prolonged heatwaves were associated with decreased overall cumulative risk of sick leaves compared to all other summer days: RR 0.87 (95 % CI 0.78 to 0.97) and RR 0.83 (95 % CI 0.70 to 0.98), respectively. CONCLUSIONS This research suggests that summertime daily temperatures that are high for this northern location have protective effects on the health of the working population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anne H Lipponen
- University of Eastern Finland, Department of Environmental and Biological Sciences, Kuopio, Finland; Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Environmental Health Unit, Kuopio, Finland.
| | - Santtu Mikkonen
- University of Eastern Finland, Department of Environmental and Biological Sciences, Kuopio, Finland; University of Eastern Finland, Department of Technical Physics, Kuopio, Finland
| | - Virpi Kollanus
- Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Environmental Health Unit, Kuopio, Finland
| | - Pekka Tiittanen
- Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Environmental Health Unit, Kuopio, Finland
| | - Timo Lanki
- Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Environmental Health Unit, Kuopio, Finland; University of Eastern Finland, Institute of Public Health and Clinical Nutrition, Kuopio, Finland
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17
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Yin P, Gao Y, Chen R, Liu W, He C, Hao J, Zhou M, Kan H. Temperature-related death burden of various neurodegenerative diseases under climate warming: a nationwide modelling study. Nat Commun 2023; 14:8236. [PMID: 38086884 PMCID: PMC10716387 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44066-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2023] [Accepted: 11/29/2023] [Indexed: 12/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Limited knowledge exists regarding the ramifications of climate warming on death burden from neurodegenerative diseases. Here, we conducted a nationwide, individual-level, case-crossover study between 2013 and 2019 to investigate the effects of non-optimal temperatures on various neurodegenerative diseases and to predict the potential death burden under different climate change scenarios. Our findings reveal that both low and high temperatures are linked to increased risks of neurodegenerative diseases death. We project that heat-related neurodegenerative disease deaths would increase, while cold-related deaths would decrease. This is characterized by a steeper slope in the high-emission scenario, but a less pronounced trend in the scenarios involving mitigation strategies. Furthermore, we predict that the net changes in attributable death would increase after the mid-21st century, especially under the unrestricted-emission scenario. These results highlight the urgent need for effective climate and public health policies to address the growing challenges of neurodegenerative diseases associated with global warming.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peng Yin
- National Center for Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Ya Gao
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Renjie Chen
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Wei Liu
- National Center for Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Cheng He
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Junwei Hao
- Department of Neurology, Xuanwu Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
- National Center for Neurological Disorders, Beijing, China.
| | - Maigeng Zhou
- National Center for Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
| | - Haidong Kan
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
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Huang WTK, Masselot P, Bou-Zeid E, Fatichi S, Paschalis A, Sun T, Gasparrini A, Manoli G. Economic valuation of temperature-related mortality attributed to urban heat islands in European cities. Nat Commun 2023; 14:7438. [PMID: 37978178 PMCID: PMC10656443 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43135-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2023] [Accepted: 11/01/2023] [Indexed: 11/19/2023] Open
Abstract
As the climate warms, increasing heat-related health risks are expected, and can be exacerbated by the urban heat island (UHI) effect. UHIs can also offer protection against cold weather, but a clear quantification of their impacts on human health across diverse cities and seasons is still being explored. Here we provide a 500 m resolution assessment of mortality risks associated with UHIs for 85 European cities in 2015-2017. Acute impacts are found during heat extremes, with a 45% median increase in mortality risk associated with UHI, compared to a 7% decrease during cold extremes. However, protracted cold seasons result in greater integrated protective effects. On average, UHI-induced heat-/cold-related mortality is associated with economic impacts of €192/€ - 314 per adult urban inhabitant per year in Europe, comparable to air pollution and transit costs. These findings urge strategies aimed at designing healthier cities to consider the seasonality of UHI impacts, and to account for social costs, their controlling factors, and intra-urban variability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wan Ting Katty Huang
- Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, University College London, London, UK
- Met Office, Exeter, UK
| | - Pierre Masselot
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Elie Bou-Zeid
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, USA
| | - Simone Fatichi
- Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Athanasios Paschalis
- Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Ting Sun
- Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, UK
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Gabriele Manoli
- Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, University College London, London, UK.
- Laboratory of Urban and Environmental Systems, School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Lausanne, Switzerland.
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Gay P, Pautas É. [A geriatric perspective on the sixth IPCC synthesis report]. SOINS. GERONTOLOGIE 2023; 28:37-40. [PMID: 37977763 DOI: 10.1016/j.sger.2023.09.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2023]
Abstract
Climate change brings with it many foreseeable consequences for ecosystems and populations, including health consequences that could have a particular impact on older populations. Extreme climatic events, including heat waves, are associated with higher morbidity and mortality among the elderly. Air pollution has a deleterious effect on illnesses associated with aging, or which become more frequent with age. The health consequences of climate change must be anticipated, as they will require the adaptation of healthcare systems, which could be of particular interest to geriatric medicine.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pierre Gay
- Service de gériatrie aiguë, Hôpital européen Georges-Pompidou, GHU AP-HP centre université Paris-Cité, 20, rue Leblanc, 75015 Paris, France.
| | - Éric Pautas
- Service de gériatrie aiguë polyvalente, Hôpital Charles-Foix, GHU AP-HP Sorbonne université, Ivry-sur-Seine, France; UFR médecine, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France
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20
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Barrett D. Extreme temperatures are associated with increased cardiovascular mortality. Evid Based Nurs 2023:ebnurs-2023-103709. [PMID: 37907269 DOI: 10.1136/ebnurs-2023-103709] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 10/18/2023] [Indexed: 11/02/2023]
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21
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Kroeger C. Heat is associated with short-term increases in household food insecurity in 150 countries and this is mediated by income. Nat Hum Behav 2023; 7:1777-1786. [PMID: 37604991 PMCID: PMC10593604 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-023-01684-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/11/2022] [Accepted: 07/21/2023] [Indexed: 08/23/2023]
Abstract
Rising temperatures are expected to stall progress on food insecurity by reducing agricultural yields in the coming decades. But hot periods may also increase food insecurity within days when it gets too hot to work and earn an income, thus limiting households' capability to purchase food. Here I exploit variations in heat levels during a household survey spanning 150 countries in a quasi-natural experiment to show that particularly hot weeks are associated with higher chances of food insecurity among households (0.5767, 95% confidence interval 0.2958-0.8576, t = 4.024, d.f. = 427,816, P < 0.001). This association is mediated by reductions in income and health for households and the effects are stronger in countries with lower incomes and more agricultural or precarious forms of employment. The results highlight the importance of labour market disruptions for food insecurity and suggest integration of these concerns into heat action plans and food programmes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carolin Kroeger
- Department of Social Policy and Intervention, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
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22
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de Schrijver E, Sivaraj S, Raible CC, Franco OH, Chen K, Vicedo-Cabrera AM. Nationwide projections of heat- and cold-related mortality impacts under various climate change and population development scenarios in Switzerland. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS : ERL [WEB SITE] 2023; 18:094010. [PMID: 38854588 PMCID: PMC7616072 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ace7e1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/11/2024]
Abstract
Climate change and progressive population development (i.e., ageing and changes in population size) are altering the temporal patterns of temperature-related mortality in Switzerland. However, limited evidence exists on how current trends in heat- and cold-related mortality would evolve in future decades under composite scenarios of global warming and population development. Moreover, the contribution of these drivers to future mortality impacts is not well-understood. Therefore, we aimed to project heat- and cold-related mortality in Switzerland under various combinations of emission and population development scenarios and to disentangle the contribution of each of these two drivers using high-resolution mortality and temperature data. We combined age-specific (<75 and ⩾75 years) temperature-mortality associations in each district in Switzerland (1990-2010), estimated through a two-stage time series analysis, with 2 km downscaled CMIP5 temperature data and population and mortality rate projections under two scenarios: RCP4.5/SSP2 and RCP8.5/SSP5. We derived heat and cold-related mortality for different warming targets (1.5 °C, 2.0 °C and 3.0 °C) using different emission and population development scenarios and compared this to the baseline period (1990-2010). Heat-related mortality is projected to increase from 312 (116; 510) in the 1990-2010 period to 1274 (537; 2284) annual deaths under 2.0 °C of warming (RCP4.5/SSP2) and to 1871 (791; 3284) under 3.0 °C of warming (RCP8.5/SSP5). Cold-related mortality will substantially increase from 4069 (1898; 6016) to 6558 (3223; 9589) annual deaths under 2.0 °C (RCP4.5/SSP2) and to 5997 (2951; 8759) under 3.0 °C (RCP8.5/SSP5). Moreover, while the increase in cold-related mortality is solely driven by population development, for heat, both components (i.e., changes in climate and population) have a similar contribution of around 50% to the projected heat-related mortality trends. In conclusion, our findings suggest that both heat- and cold-related mortality will substantially increase under all scenarios of climate change and population development in Switzerland. Population development will lead to an increase in cold-related mortality despite the decrease in cold temperature under warmer scenarios. Whereas the combination of the progressive warming of the climate and population development will substantially increase and exacerbate the total temperature-related mortality burden in Switzerland.
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Affiliation(s)
- Evan de Schrijver
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Graduate School of Health Sciences (GHS), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Sidharth Sivaraj
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Christoph C Raible
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Oscar H Franco
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University of Utrecht Medical Center, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Kai Chen
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, United States of America
- Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, United States of America
| | - Ana M Vicedo-Cabrera
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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Derdouri A, Murayama Y, Morimoto T. Spatiotemporal Thermal Variations in Moroccan Cities: A Comparative Analysis. SENSORS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2023; 23:6229. [PMID: 37448080 DOI: 10.3390/s23136229] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2023] [Revised: 07/05/2023] [Accepted: 07/05/2023] [Indexed: 07/15/2023]
Abstract
This study examines the Land Surface Temperature (LST) trends in eight key Moroccan cities from 1990 to 2020, emphasizing the influential factors and disparities between coastal and inland areas. Geographically weighted regression (GWR), machine learning (ML) algorithms, namely XGBoost and LightGBM, and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) methods are utilized. The study observes that urban areas are often cooler due to the presence of urban heat sinks (UHSs), more noticeably in coastal cities. However, LST is seen to increase across all cities due to urbanization and the degradation of vegetation cover. The increase in LST is more pronounced in inland cities surrounded by barren landscapes. Interestingly, XGBoost frequently outperforms LightGBM in the analyses. ML models and SHAP demonstrate efficacy in deciphering urban heat dynamics despite data quality and model tuning challenges. The study's results highlight the crucial role of ongoing urbanization, topography, and the existence of water bodies and vegetation in driving LST dynamics. These findings underscore the importance of sustainable urban planning and vegetation cover in mitigating urban heat, thus having significant policy implications. Despite its contributions, this study acknowledges certain limitations, primarily the use of data from only four discrete years, thereby overlooking inter-annual, seasonal, and diurnal variations in LST dynamics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ahmed Derdouri
- Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba 305-8572, Japan
| | - Yuji Murayama
- Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba 305-8572, Japan
| | - Takehiro Morimoto
- Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba 305-8572, Japan
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24
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Coma E, Pino D, Mora N, Fina F, Perramon A, Prats C, Medina M, Planella A, Mompart A, Mendioroz J, Cabezas C. Mortality in Catalonia during the summer of 2022 and its relation with high temperatures and COVID-19 cases. Front Public Health 2023; 11:1157363. [PMID: 37275503 PMCID: PMC10235629 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1157363] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2023] [Accepted: 05/08/2023] [Indexed: 06/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Purpose To analyse the association between the mortality during the summer 2022 and either high temperatures or the COVID-19 wave with data from the Catalan Health Care System (7.8 million people). Methods We performed a retrospective study using publicly available data of meteorological variables, influenza-like illness (ILI) cases (including COVID-19) and deaths. The study comprises the summer months of the years 2021 and 2022. To compare the curves of mortality, ILI and temperature we calculated the z-score of each series. We assessed the observed lag between curves using the cross-correlation function. Finally, we calculated the correlation between the z-scores using the Pearson correlation coefficient (R2). Results During the study period, 33,967 deaths were reported in Catalonia (16,416 in the summer of 2021 and 17,551 in the summer of 2022). In 2022, the observed lag and the correlation between the z-scores of temperature and all-cause deaths was 3 days and R2 = 0.86, while between ILI and all-cause deaths was 22 days and R2 = 0.21. This high correlation between temperature and deaths increased up to 0.91 when we excluded those deaths reported as COVID-19 deaths, while the correlation between ILI and non-COVID-19 deaths decreased to -0.19. No correlation was observed between non-COVID deaths and temperature or ILI cases in 2021. Conclusion Our study suggests that the main cause of the increase in deaths during summer 2022 in Catalonia was the high temperatures and its duration. The contribution of the COVID-19 seems to be limited.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ermengol Coma
- Primary Care Services Information System (SISAP), Institut Català de la Salut (ICS), Barcelona, Spain
| | - David Pino
- Department of Physics, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Núria Mora
- Primary Care Services Information System (SISAP), Institut Català de la Salut (ICS), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Francesc Fina
- Primary Care Services Information System (SISAP), Institut Català de la Salut (ICS), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Aida Perramon
- Department of Physics, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Clara Prats
- Department of Physics, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Manuel Medina
- Primary Care Services Information System (SISAP), Institut Català de la Salut (ICS), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Antoni Planella
- Department of Health, Generalitat de Catalunya, Direcció General de Planificació i Recerca en Salut, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Anna Mompart
- Department of Health, Generalitat de Catalunya, Direcció General de Planificació i Recerca en Salut, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Jacobo Mendioroz
- Department of Health, Public Health Secretariat, Generalitat de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Carmen Cabezas
- Department of Health, Public Health Secretariat, Generalitat de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain
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