Modelling meningococcal meningitis in the African meningitis belt

A mathematical interpretation for outbreaks of bacterial meningitis under the effect of time-dependent transmission parameters

We consider a SIR-type compartmental model divided into two age classes to explain the seasonal exacerbations of bacterial meningitis, especially among children outside of the meningitis belt. We describe the seasonal forcing through time-dependent transmission parameters that may represent the outbreak of the meningitis cases after the annual pilgrimage period (Hajj) or uncontrolled inflows of irregular immigrants. We present and analyse a mathematical model with time-dependent transmission. We consider not only periodic functions in the analysis but also general non-periodic transmission processes. We show that the long-time average values of transmission functions can be used as a stability marker of the equilibrium. Furthermore, we interpret the basic reproduction number in case of time-dependent transmission functions. Numerical simulations support and help visualize the theoretical results.

Evaluating the Impact of Meningococcal Vaccines With Synthetic Controls

Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) has a low and unpredictable incidence, presenting challenges for real-world evaluations of meningococcal vaccines. Traditionally, meningococcal vaccine impact is evaluated by predicting counterfactuals from pre-immunization IMD incidences, possibly controlling for IMD in unvaccinated age groups, but the selection of controls can influence results. We retrospectively applied a synthetic control (SC) method, previously used for pneumococcal disease, to data from 2 programs for immunization of infants against serogroups B and C IMD in England and Brazil. Time series of infectious/noninfectious diseases in infants and IMD cases in older unvaccinated age groups were used as candidate controls, automatically combined in a SC through Bayesian variable selection. SC closely predicted IMD in absence of vaccination, adjusting for nontrivial changes in IMD incidence. Vaccine impact estimates were in line with previous assessments. IMD cases in unvaccinated age groups were the most frequent SC-selected controls. Similar results were obtained when excluding IMD from control sets and using other diseases only, particularly respiratory diseases and measles. Using non-IMD controls may be important where there are herd immunity effects. SC is a robust and flexible method that addresses uncertainty introduced when equally plausible controls exhibit different post-immunization behaviors, allowing objective comparisons of IMD programs between countries.

Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world

Background

Vaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and yellow fever over the years 2000-2030 across 112 countries.

Methods

Twenty-one mathematical models estimated disease burden using standardised demographic and immunisation data. Impact was attributed to the year of vaccination through vaccine-activity-stratified impact ratios.

Results

We estimate 97 (95%CrI[80, 120]) million deaths would be averted due to vaccination activities over 2000-2030, with 50 (95%CrI[41, 62]) million deaths averted by activities between 2000 and 2019. For children under-5 born between 2000 and 2030, we estimate 52 (95%CrI[41, 69]) million more deaths would occur over their lifetimes without vaccination against these diseases.

Conclusions

This study represents the largest assessment of vaccine impact before COVID-19-related disruptions and provides motivation for sustaining and improving global vaccination coverage in the future.

Funding

VIMC is jointly funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) (BMGF grant number: OPP1157270 / INV-009125). Funding from Gavi is channelled via VIMC to the Consortium's modelling groups (VIMC-funded institutions represented in this paper: Imperial College London, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Public Health England, Johns Hopkins University, The Pennsylvania State University, Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Kaiser Permanente Washington, University of Cambridge, University of Notre Dame, Harvard University, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Emory University, National University of Singapore). Funding from BMGF was used for salaries of the Consortium secretariat (authors represented here: TBH, MJ, XL, SE-L, JT, KW, NMF, KAMG); and channelled via VIMC for travel and subsistence costs of all Consortium members (all authors). We also acknowledge funding from the UK Medical Research Council and Department for International Development, which supported aspects of VIMC's work (MRC grant number: MR/R015600/1).JHH acknowledges funding from National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship; Richard and Peggy Notebaert Premier Fellowship from the University of Notre Dame. BAL acknowledges funding from NIH/NIGMS (grant number R01 GM124280) and NIH/NIAID (grant number R01 AI112970). The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) receives funding support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.This paper was compiled by all coauthors, including two coauthors from Gavi. Other funders had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report. All authors had full access to all the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication.

Impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to measles, meningococcal A, and yellow fever vaccination in 10 countries

Background

Childhood immunisation services have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. WHO recommends considering outbreak risk using epidemiological criteria when deciding whether to conduct preventive vaccination campaigns during the pandemic.

Methods

We used two to three models per infection to estimate the health impact of 50% reduced routine vaccination coverage in 2020 and delay of campaign vaccination from 2020 to 2021 for measles vaccination in Bangladesh, Chad, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Sudan, for meningococcal A vaccination in Burkina Faso, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria, and for yellow fever vaccination in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ghana, and Nigeria. Our counterfactual comparative scenario was sustaining immunisation services at coverage projections made prior to COVID-19 (i.e. without any disruption).

Results

Reduced routine vaccination coverage in 2020 without catch-up vaccination may lead to an increase in measles and yellow fever disease burden in the modelled countries. Delaying planned campaigns in Ethiopia and Nigeria by a year may significantly increase the risk of measles outbreaks (both countries did complete their supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs) planned for 2020). For yellow fever vaccination, delay in campaigns leads to a potential disease burden rise of >1 death per 100,000 people per year until the campaigns are implemented. For meningococcal A vaccination, short-term disruptions in 2020 are unlikely to have a significant impact due to the persistence of direct and indirect benefits from past introductory campaigns of the 1- to 29-year-old population, bolstered by inclusion of the vaccine into the routine immunisation schedule accompanied by further catch-up campaigns.

Conclusions

The impact of COVID-19-related disruption to vaccination programs varies between infections and countries. Planning and implementation of campaigns should consider country and infection-specific epidemiological factors and local immunity gaps worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic when prioritising vaccines and strategies for catch-up vaccination.

Funding

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.

The environmental drivers of bacterial meningitis epidemics in the Democratic Republic of Congo, central Africa

INTRODUCTION

Bacterial meningitis still constitutes an important threat in Africa. In the meningitis belt, a clear seasonal pattern in the incidence of meningococcal disease during the dry season has been previously correlated with several environmental parameters like dust and sand particles as well as the Harmattan winds. In parallel, the evidence of seasonality in meningitis dynamics and its environmental variables remain poorly studied outside the meningitis belt. This study explores several environmental factors associated with meningitis cases in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), central Africa, outside the meningitis belt area.

METHODS

Non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis' tests were used to establish the difference between the different health zones, climate and vegetation types in relation to both the number of cases and attack rates for the period 2000-2018. The relationships between the number of meningitis cases for the different health zones and environmental and socio-economical parameters collected were modeled using different generalized linear (GLMs) and generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), and different error structure in the different models, i.e., Poisson, binomial negative, zero-inflated binomial negative and more elaborated multi-hierarchical zero-inflated binomial negative models, with randomization of certain parameters or factors (health zones, vegetation and climate types). Comparing the different statistical models, the model with the smallest Akaike's information criterion (AIC) were selected as the best ones. 515 different health zones from 26 distinct provinces were considered for the construction of the different GLM and GLMM models.

RESULTS

Non-parametric bivariate statistics showed that there were more meningitis cases in urban health zones than in rural conditions (χ2 = 6.910, p-value = 0.009), in areas dominated by savannah landscape than in areas with dense forest or forest in mountainous areas (χ2 = 15.185, p-value = 0.001), and with no significant difference between climate types (χ2 = 1.211, p-value = 0,449). Additionally, no significant difference was observed for attack rate between the two types of heath zones (χ2 = 0.982, p-value = 0.322). Conversely, strong differences in attack rate values were obtained for vegetation types (χ2 = 13.627, p-value = 0,001) and climate types (χ2 = 13.627, p-value = 0,001). This work demonstrates that, all other parameters kept constant, an urban health zone located at high latitude and longitude eastwards, located at low-altitude like in valley ecosystems predominantly covered by savannah biome, with a humid tropical climate are at higher risk for the development of meningitis. In addition, the regions with mean range temperature and a population with a low index of economic well-being (IEW) constitute the perfect conditions for the development of meningitis in DRC.

CONCLUSION

In a context of global environmental change, particularly climate change, our findings tend to show that an interplay of different environmental and socio-economic drivers are important to consider in the epidemiology of bacterial meningitis epidemics in DRC. This information is important to help improving meningitis control strategies in a large country located outside of the so-called meningitis belt.

Meningococcal carriage by age in the African meningitis belt: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Meningococcal carriage dynamics drive patterns of invasive disease. The distribution of carriage by age has been well described in Europe, but not in the African meningitis belt, a region characterised by frequent epidemics of meningitis. We aimed to estimate the age-specific prevalence of meningococcal carriage by season in the African meningitis belt. We searched PubMed, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library and grey literature for papers reporting carriage of Neisseria meningitidis in defined age groups in the African meningitis belt. We used a mixed-effects logistic regression to model meningococcal carriage prevalence as a function of age, adjusting for season, location and year. Carriage prevalence increased from low prevalence in infants (0.595% in the rainy season, 95% CI 0.482–0.852%) to a broad peak at age 10 (1.94%, 95% CI 1.87–2.47%), then decreased in adolescence. The odds of carriage were significantly increased during the dry season (OR 1.5 95% CI 1.4–1.7) and during outbreaks (OR 6.7 95% CI 1.6–29). Meningococcal carriage in the African meningitis belt peaks at a younger age compared to Europe. This is consistent with contact studies in Africa, which show that children 10–14 years have the highest frequency of contacts. Targeting older children in Africa for conjugate vaccination may be effective in reducing meningococcal transmission.

Mathematical modeling and analysis of meningococcal meningitis transmission dynamics

Meningococcal meningitis (MCM) is one of the serious public health threats in the tropical and sub-tropical regions. In this paper, we propose an epidemic model to study the transmission dynamics of MCM with high- and low-risk susceptible populations. The model considers two different groups of susceptible individuals depending on the availability of medical resources (MR, including hospitals, health workers, etc.), which varies the infection risk. We find that the model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation (BB), which increases the difficulty of MCM control since the dynamics are not merely relying on the basic reproduction number, [Formula: see text]. This study explores the effects of MR on the MCM epidemics by mathematical analysis and shows the existence of BB on MCM disease. Our findings suggest that providing adequate MR in a community is crucial in mitigating MCM incidences and deaths, especially, in the MCM endemic regions.

Optimal Control Analysis of Pneumonia and Meningitis Coinfection

In this paper, we proposed a deterministic model of pneumonia-meningitis coinfection. We used a system of seven ordinary differential equations. Firstly, the qualitative behaviours of the model such as positivity of the solution, existence of the solution, the equilibrium points, basic reproduction number, analysis of equilibrium points, and sensitivity analysis are studied. The disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is kept less than unity, and conditions for global stability are established. Then, the basic model is extended to optimal control by incorporating four control interventions, such as prevention of pneumonia as well as meningitis and also treatment of pneumonia and meningitis diseases. The optimality system is obtained by using Pontryagin's maximum principle. For simulation of the optimality system, we proposed five strategies to check the effect of the controls. First, we consider prevention only for both diseases, and the result shows that applying prevention control has a great impact in bringing down the expansion of pneumonia, meningitis, and their coinfection in the specified period of time. The other strategies are prevention effort for pneumonia and treatment effort for meningitis, prevention effort for meningitis and treatment effort for pneumonia, treatment effort for both diseases, and using all interventions. We obtained that each of the listed strategies is effective in minimizing the expansion of pneumonia-only, meningitis-only, and coinfectious population in the specified period of time.

Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Uses of Polyvalent Meningococcal Vaccines in Niger: An Agent-Based Transmission Modeling Study

Background. Despite the introduction of an effective serogroup A conjugate vaccine (MenAfriVac™), sporadic epidemics of other Neisseria meningitidis serogroups remain a concern in Africa. Polyvalent meningococcal conjugate (PMC) vaccines may offer alternatives to current strategies that rely on routine infant vaccination with MenAfriVac plus, in the event of an epidemic, district-specific reactive campaigns using polyvalent meningococcal polysaccharide (PMP) vaccines. Methods. We developed an agent-based transmission model of N. meningitidis in Niger to compare the health effects and costs of current vaccination practice and 3 alternatives. Each alternative replaces MenAfriVac in the infant vaccination series with PMC and either replaces PMP with PMC for reactive campaigns or implements a one-time catch up campaign with PMC for children and young adults. Results. Over a 28-year period, replacement of MenAfriVac with PMC in the infant immunization series and of PMP in reactive campaigns would avert 63% of expected cases (95% prediction interval 49%-75%) if elimination of serogroup A is not followed by serogroup replacement. At a PMC price of $4/dose, this would cost $1412 ($81-$3510) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. If serogroup replacement occurs, the cost-effectiveness of this strategy improves to $662 (cost-saving, $2473) per DALY averted. Sensitivity analyses accounting for incomplete laboratory confirmation suggest that a catch-up PMC campaign would also meet standard cost-effectiveness thresholds. Limitations. The assumption that polyvalent vaccines offer similar protection against all serogroups is simplifying. Conclusions. The use of PMC vaccines to replace MenAfriVac in routine infant immunization and in district-specific reactive campaigns would have important health benefits and is likely to be cost-effective in Niger. An additional PMC catch-up campaign would also be cost-effective if we account for incomplete laboratory reporting.

Optimal control and cost-effective analysis of the 2017 meningitis outbreak in Nigeria

This paper presents a deterministic model for Neisseria meningitidis, a bacterium that causes meningitis. The model was parameterized using data from the 2017 meningitis outbreak in Nigeria. Optimal control theory was applied to investigate the optimal strategy for curtailing the spread of the disease using control variables determined from sensitivity analysis. These control variables are personal-protection such as the use of facial masks, and vaccination. The results show that the two controls avert more infections at low costs. Furthermore, a reciprocal relationship exists between the use of facial masks and vaccine. That is, when the use of facial masks is high, the use of vaccine is low and vice versa. Cost-effective analysis was applied to investigate the most cost-effective strategy from various combination of control strategies. The results show that strategy combining all the control variables is the most cost-effective strategy followed by the strategy involving both personal-protection, the vaccination-only strategy was the least cost-effective. Although vaccination strategy is not cost-effective in this study, it is as effective in curtailing the infection as the other two control strategies. The study suggests that governments of communities with limited resources should consider complementing the use of vaccine with the use of facial mask particularly in hard-to-reach places in their communities.

Risk factors for acquisition of meningococcal carriage in the African meningitis belt

OBJECTIVE

To investigate potential risk factors for acquisition in seven countries of the meningitis belt.

METHODS

Households were followed up every 2 weeks for 2 months, then monthly for a further 4 months. Pharyngeal swabs were collected from all available household members at each visit and questionnaires completed. Risks of acquisition over the whole study period and for each visit were analysed by a series of logistic regressions.

RESULTS

Over the course of the study, acquisition was higher in: (i) 5-to 14-year olds, as compared with those 30 years or older (OR 3.6, 95% CI 1.4-9.9); (ii) smokers (OR 3.6, 95% CI 0.98-13); and (iii) those exposed to wood smoke at home (OR 2.6 95% CI 1.3-5.6). The risk of acquisition from one visit to the next was higher in those reporting a sore throat during the dry season (OR 3.7, 95% CI 2.0-6.7) and lower in those reporting antibiotic use (OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.03-0.56).

CONCLUSIONS

Acquisition of meningococcal carriage peaked in school age children. Recent symptoms of sore throat during the dry season, but not during the rainy season, were associated with a higher risk of acquisition. Upper respiratory tract infections may be an important driver of epidemics in the meningitis belt.

Narrative review of methods and findings of recent studies on the carriage of meningococci and other Neisseria species in the African Meningitis Belt

OBJECTIVE

To review the findings of studies of pharyngeal carriage of Neisseria meningitidis and related species conducted in the African meningitis belt since a previous review published in 2007.

METHODS

PubMed and Web of Science were searched in July 2018 using the terms 'meningococcal OR Neisseria meningitidis OR lactamica AND carriage AND Africa', with the search limited to papers published on or after 1st January 2007. We conducted a narrative review of these publications.

RESULTS

One hundred and thirteen papers were identified using the search terms described above, 20 of which reported new data from surveys conducted in an African meningitis belt country. These papers described 40 surveys conducted before the introduction of the group A meningococcal conjugate vaccine (MenAfriVacR ) during which 66 707 pharyngeal swabs were obtained. Carriage prevalence of N. meningitidis varied substantially by time and place, ranging from <1% to 24%. The mean pharyngeal carriage prevalence of N. meningitidis across all surveys was 4.5% [95% CI: 3.4%, 6.8%] and that of capsulated N. meningitidis was 2.8% [95% CI: 1.9%; 5.2%]. A study of households provided strong evidence for meningococcal transmission within and outside households. The introduction of MenAfriVac® led to marked reductions in carriage of the serogroup A meningococcus in Burkina Faso and Chad.

CONCLUSIONS

Recent studies employing standardised methods confirm the findings of older studies that carriage of N. meningitidis in the African meningitis belt is highly variable over time and place, but generally occurs with a lower prevalence and shorter duration than reported from industrialised countries.

Compartmental models for seasonal hyperendemic bacterial meningitis in the African meningitis belt

The pathophysiological mechanisms underlying the seasonal dynamic and epidemic occurrence of bacterial meningitis in the African meningitis belt remain unknown. Regular seasonality (seasonal hyperendemicity) is observed for both meningococcal and pneumococcal meningitis and understanding this is critical for better prevention and modelling. The two principal hypotheses for hyperendemicity during the dry season imply (1) an increased risk of invasive disease given asymptomatic carriage of meningococci and pneumococci; or (2) an increased transmission of these bacteria from carriers and ill individuals. In this study, we formulated three compartmental deterministic models of seasonal hyperendemicity, featuring one (model1-'inv' or model2-'transm'), or a combination (model3-'inv-transm') of the two hypotheses. We parameterised the models based on current knowledge on meningococcal and pneumococcal biology and pathophysiology. We compared the three models' performance in reproducing weekly incidences of suspected cases of acute bacterial meningitis reported by health centres in Burkina Faso during 2004-2010, through the meningitis surveillance system. The three models performed well (coefficient of determination R2, 0.72, 0.86 and 0.87, respectively). Model2-'transm' and model3-'inv-transm' better captured the amplitude of the seasonal incidence. However, model2-'transm' required a higher constant invasion rate for a similar average baseline transmission rate. The results suggest that a combination of seasonal changes of the risk of invasive disease and carriage transmission is involved in the hyperendemic seasonality of bacterial meningitis in the African meningitis belt. Consequently, both interventions reducing the risk of nasopharyngeal invasion and the bacteria transmission, especially during the dry season are believed to be needed to limit the recurrent seasonality of bacterial meningitis in the meningitis belt.

Mathematical Modelling of Bacterial Meningitis Transmission Dynamics with Control Measures

Vaccination and treatment are the most effective ways of controlling the transmission of most infectious diseases. While vaccination helps susceptible individuals to build either a long-term immunity or short-term immunity, treatment reduces the number of disease-induced deaths and the number of infectious individuals in a community/nation. In this paper, a nonlinear deterministic model with time-dependent controls has been proposed to describe the dynamics of bacterial meningitis in a population. The model is shown to exhibit a unique globally asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium ℰ₀, when the effective reproduction number ℛ_VT ≤ 1, and a globally asymptotically stable endemic equilibrium ℰ₁, when ℛ_VT > 1; and it exhibits a transcritical bifurcation at ℛ_VT = 1. Carriers have been shown (by Tornado plot) to have a higher chance of spreading the infection than those with clinical symptoms who will sometimes be bound to bed during the acute phase of the infection. In order to find the best strategy for minimizing the number of carriers and ill individuals and the cost of control implementation, an optimal control problem is set up by defining a Lagrangian function L to be minimized subject to the proposed model. Numerical simulation of the optimal problem demonstrates that the best strategy to control bacterial meningitis is to combine vaccination with other interventions (such as treatment and public health education). Additionally, this research suggests that stakeholders should press hard for the production of existing/new vaccines and antibiotics and their disbursement to areas that are most affected by bacterial meningitis, especially Sub-Saharan Africa; furthermore, individuals who live in communities where the environment is relatively warm (hot/moisture) are advised to go for vaccination against bacterial meningitis.

The cost-effectiveness of alternative vaccination strategies for polyvalent meningococcal vaccines in Burkina Faso: A transmission dynamic modeling study

BACKGROUND

The introduction of a conjugate vaccine for serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis has dramatically reduced disease in the African meningitis belt. In this context, important questions remain about the performance of different vaccine policies that target remaining serogroups. Here, we estimate the health impact and cost associated with several alternative vaccination policies in Burkina Faso.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We developed and calibrated a mathematical model of meningococcal transmission to project the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted and costs associated with the current Base policy (serogroup A conjugate vaccination at 9 months, as part of the Expanded Program on Immunization [EPI], plus district-specific reactive vaccination campaigns using polyvalent meningococcal polysaccharide [PMP] vaccine in response to outbreaks) and three alternative policies: (1) Base Prime: novel polyvalent meningococcal conjugate (PMC) vaccine replaces the serogroup A conjugate in EPI and is also used in reactive campaigns; (2) Prevention 1: PMC used in EPI and in a nationwide catch-up campaign for 1-18-year-olds; and (3) Prevention 2: Prevention 1, except the nationwide campaign includes individuals up to 29 years old. Over a 30-year simulation period, Prevention 2 would avert 78% of the meningococcal cases (95% prediction interval: 63%-90%) expected under the Base policy if serogroup A is not replaced by remaining serogroups after elimination, and would avert 87% (77%-93%) of meningococcal cases if complete strain replacement occurs. Compared to the Base policy and at the PMC vaccine price of US$4 per dose, strategies that use PMC vaccine (i.e., Base Prime and Preventions 1 and 2) are expected to be cost saving if strain replacement occurs, and would cost US$51 (-US$236, US$490), US$188 (-US$97, US$626), and US$246 (-US$53, US$703) per DALY averted, respectively, if strain replacement does not occur. An important potential limitation of our study is the simplifying assumption that all circulating meningococcal serogroups can be aggregated into a single group; while this assumption is critical for model tractability, it would compromise the insights derived from our model if the effectiveness of the vaccine differs markedly between serogroups or if there are complex between-serogroup interactions that influence the frequency and magnitude of future meningitis epidemics.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that a vaccination strategy that includes a catch-up nationwide immunization campaign in young adults with a PMC vaccine and the addition of this new vaccine into EPI is cost-effective and would avert a substantial portion of meningococcal cases expected under the current World Health Organization-recommended strategy of reactive vaccination. This analysis is limited to Burkina Faso and assumes that polyvalent vaccines offer equal protection against all meningococcal serogroups; further studies are needed to evaluate the robustness of this assumption and applicability for other countries in the meningitis belt.

A periodic disease transmission model with asymptomatic carriage and latency periods

In this paper, the global dynamics of a periodic disease transmission model with two delays in incubation and asymptomatic carriage periods is investigated. We first derive the model system with a general nonlinear incidence rate function by stage-structure. Then, we identify the basic reproduction ratio [Formula: see text] for the model and present numerical algorithm to calculate it. We obtain the global attractivity of the disease-free state when [Formula: see text] and discuss the disease persistence when [Formula: see text]. We also explore the coexistence of endemic state in the nonautonomous system and prove the uniqueness with constants coefficients. Numerical simulations are provided to present a case study regarding the meningococcal meningitis disease transmission and discuss the influence of carriers on [Formula: see text].

The association between respiratory tract infection incidence and localised meningitis epidemics: an analysis of high-resolution surveillance data from Burkina Faso

Meningococcal meningitis epidemics in the African meningitis belt consist of localised meningitis epidemics (LME) that reach attack proportions of 1% within a few weeks. A meningococcal serogroup A conjugate vaccine was introduced in meningitis belt countries from 2010 on, but LME due to other serogroups continue to occur. The mechanisms underlying LME are poorly understood, but an association with respiratory pathogens has been hypothesised. We analysed national routine surveillance data in high spatial resolution (health centre level) from 13 districts in Burkina Faso, 2004–2014. We defined LME as a weekly incidence rate of suspected meningitis ≥75 per 100,000 during ≥2 weeks; and high incidence episodes of respiratory tract infections (RTI) as the 5^th quintile of monthly incidences. We included 10,334 health centre month observations during the meningitis season (January-May), including 85 with LME, and 1891 (1820) high-incidence episodes of upper (lower) RTI. In mixed effects logistic regression accounting for spatial structure, and controlling for dust conditions, relative air humidity and month, the occurrence of LME was strongly associated with high incidence episodes of upper (odds ratio 23.9, 95%-confidence interval 3.1–185.3), but not lower RTI. In the African meningitis belt, meningitis epidemics may be triggered by outbreaks of upper RTI.

Towards understanding the epidemiology of Neisseria meningitidis in the African meningitis belt: a multi-disciplinary overview

OBJECTIVES

Neisseria meningitidis is the major cause of seasonal meningitis epidemics in the African meningitis belt. In the changing context of a reduction in incidence of serogroup A and an increase in incidence of serogroups W and C and of Streptococcus pneumoniae, a better understanding of the determinants driving the disease transmission dynamics remains crucial to improving bacterial meningitis control.

METHODS

The literature was searched to provide a multi-disciplinary overview of the determinants of meningitis transmission dynamics in the African meningitis belt.

RESULTS

Seasonal hyperendemicity is likely predominantly caused by increased invasion rates, sporadic localized epidemics by increased transmission rates, and larger pluri-annual epidemic waves by changing population immunity. Carriage likely involves competition for colonization and cross-immunity. The duration of immunity likely depends on the acquisition type. Major risk factors include dust and low humidity, and presumably human contact rates and co-infections; social studies highlighted environmental and dietary factors, with supernatural explanations.

CONCLUSIONS

Efforts should focus on implementing multi-country, longitudinal seroprevalence and epidemiological studies, validating immune markers of protection, and improving surveillance, including more systematic molecular characterizations of the bacteria. Integrating climate and social factors into disease control strategies represents a high priority for optimizing the public health response and anticipating the geographic evolution of the African meningitis belt.

Modeling Long-term Vaccination Strategies With MenAfriVac in the African Meningitis Belt

BACKGROUND

The introduction of MenAfriVac in campaigns targeting people aged 1-29 years across the African meningitis belt has successfully reduced meningitis incidence and carriage due to Neisseria meningitidis group A (MenA). It is important to consider how best to sustain population protection in the long term.

METHODS

We created a mathematical model of MenA transmission and disease to investigate the potential impact of a range of immunization strategies. The model is age structured; includes classes of susceptible, carrier, ill, and immune people (who may be vaccinated or unvaccinated); and incorporates seasonal transmission and a stochastic forcing term that models between year variation in rates of transmission. Model parameters were primarily derived from African sources. The model can describe the typical annual incidence of meningitis in the prevaccine era, with irregular epidemics of varying size. Parameter and structural uncertainty were explored in sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Following MenAfriVac introduction at high uptake, the model predicts excellent short-term disease control. With no subsequent immunization, strong resurgences in disease incidence were predicted after approximately 15 years (assuming 10 years' average vaccine protection). Routine immunization at 9 months of age resulted in lower average annual incidence than regular mass campaigns of 1- to 4-year-olds, provided coverage was above approximately 60%. The strategy with the lowest overall average annual incidence and longest time to resurgence was achieved using a combination strategy of introduction into the Expanded Programme on Immunization at 9 months, 5 years after the initial mass campaigns, with a catch-up targeting unvaccinated 1- to 4-year-olds.

CONCLUSIONS

These results can be used to inform policy recommendations for long-term vaccination strategies with MenAfriVac.

Incidence, carriage and case-carrier ratios for meningococcal meningitis in the African meningitis belt: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

To facilitate the interpretation of meningococcal meningitis epidemiology in the "African meningitis belt", we aimed at obtaining serogroup-specific pooled estimates of incidence, carriage and case-carrier ratios for meningococcal meningitis in the African meningitis belt and describe their variations across the endemic, hyperendemic and epidemic context.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies reporting serogroup-specific meningococcal meningitis monthly incidence and carriage in the same population and time period. Epidemiological contexts were defined as endemic (wet season, no epidemic), hyperendemic (dry season, no epidemic), and epidemic (dry season, epidemic).

FINDINGS

Eight studies reporting a total of eighty pairs of serogroup-specific meningococcal meningitis incidence and carriage estimates were included in this review. For serogroup A, changes associated with the transition from endemic to hyperendemic incidence and from hyperendemic to epidemic incidence were 15-fold and 120-fold respectively. Changes in carriage prevalence associated with both transitions were 1-fold and 30-fold respectively. 
For serogroup W and X, the transition from endemic to hyperendemic incidence involved a 4-fold and 1•1-fold increase respectively. Increases in carriage prevalence for the later transition were 7-fold and 1•7-fold respectively. No data were available for the hyperendemic-epidemic transition for these serogroups. Our findings suggested that the regular seasonal variation in serogroup A meningococcal meningitis incidence between the rainy and the dry season could be mainly driven by seasonal change in the ratio of clinical cases to subclinical infections. In contrast appearance of epidemic incidences is related to a substantial increase in transmission and colonisation and to lesser extent with changes in the case-carrier ratio.

CONCLUSION

Seasonal change in the rate of progression to disease given carriage together with variations in frequency of carriage transmission should be considered in models attempting to capture the epidemiology of meningococcal meningitis and mainly to predict meningitis epidemics in the African meningitis belt.

Glycans as Vaccine Antigens and Adjuvants: Immunological Considerations

Carbohydrates can be found on the cell surface of nearly every cell ranging from bacteria to fungi right up to mammalian cells. Carbohydrates and their interactions with carbohydrate-binding proteins play crucial roles in multiple biological processes including immunity, homeostasis, cellular communication, cell migration, and the regulation of serum glycoprotein levels. In the last decades, the interest in exploiting the biological activity of glycans as vaccine components has considerably increased. On the one hand, carbohydrates display epitopes to generate protective antibodies against pathogen-derived cell wall structures and on the other hand, glycans have the potential to stimulate the immune system; thus they can act as potent vaccine adjuvants.An effective vaccine consists of two major components, the vaccine antigen and an adjuvant. The vaccine antigen is an original or modified part of the pathogen that causes the disease. The immune response triggered by vaccination should induce antigen-specific plasma cells secreting protective antibodies as well as the development of memory T and B cells. Carbohydrate structures on pathogens represent an important class of antigens that can activate B cells to produce protective anti-carbohydrate antibodies in adults. A major breakthrough in vaccine development was the design of conjugate vaccines that evoke protective antibody responses against encapsulated bacteria strains such as Haemophilus influenzae, Streptococcus pneumoniae, or Neisseria meningitidis in adults, but also in young children. The first part of this chapter focuses on immune responses triggered by carbohydrate-based vaccines. The second part of the chapter discusses the immunological mechanisms of carbohydrate-based adjuvants to increase the immunogenicity of vaccines.

Bacterial meningitis in Malawian adults, adolescents, and children during the era of antiretroviral scale-up and Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccination, 2000-2012

BACKGROUND

We documented bacterial meningitis trends among adults and children presenting to a large teaching hospital in Malawi during introduction of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccination and the rollout of antiretroviral therapy (ART).

METHODS

We analyzed data from 51 000 consecutive cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples obtained from adults, adolescents, and children with suspected meningitis admitted to the Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, Malawi, between 2000 and 2012.

RESULTS

There was a significant decline in the total number of CSF isolates over 12 years (incident rate ratio [IRR], 0.93; 95% CI, .92-.94; P < .001). This decline was entirely in children aged <5 years (IRR, 0.87; 95% CI, .85-.88; P < .001) and coincided with the introduction of Hib vaccination. The number of adult isolates has remained unchanged (IRR, 0.99; 95% CI, .97-1.0; P = .135) despite rapid scale-up of ART provision. In children aged <5 years, Streptococcus pneumoniae, nontyphoidal salmonellae (NTS), and Hib were the most frequently isolated pathogens, and have declined over this time period. Streptococcus pneumoniae was the most frequently isolated pathogen in older children and adults. Estimated incidence of bacterial meningitis in 2012 was 20 per 100,000 cases in children aged <14 years, 6 per 100,000 adolescents, and 10 per 100,000 adults.

CONCLUSIONS

Rates of bacterial meningitis have declined in children, but not adults, coinciding with the introduction of Hib vaccination. The highly successful rollout of ART has not yet resulted in a reduction in the incidence in adults where the burden remains high. Long-term surveillance of bacterial meningitis outside of the epidemic "meningitis belt" in Africa is essential.

Spatio-temporal factors associated with meningococcal meningitis annual incidence at the health centre level in Niger, 2004-2010

BACKGROUND

Epidemics of meningococcal meningitis (MM) recurrently strike the African Meningitis Belt. This study aimed at investigating factors, still poorly understood, that influence annual incidence of MM serogroup A, the main etiologic agent over 2004-2010, at a fine spatial scale in Niger.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

To take into account data dependencies over space and time and control for unobserved confounding factors, we developed an explanatory Bayesian hierarchical model over 2004-2010 at the health centre catchment area (HCCA) level. The multivariate model revealed that both climatic and non-climatic factors were important for explaining spatio-temporal variations in incidence: mean relative humidity during November-June over the study region (posterior mean Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) = 0.656, 95% Credible Interval (CI) 0.405-0.949) and occurrence of early rains in March in a HCCA (IRR = 0.353, 95% CI 0.239-0.502) were protective factors; a higher risk was associated with the percentage of neighbouring HCCAs having at least one MM A case during the same year (IRR = 2.365, 95% CI 2.078-2.695), the presence of a road crossing the HCCA (IRR = 1.743, 95% CI 1.173-2.474) and the occurrence of cases before 31 December in a HCCA (IRR = 6.801, 95% CI 4.004-10.910). At the study region level, higher annual incidence correlated with greater geographic spread and, to a lesser extent, with higher intensity of localized outbreaks.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on these findings, we hypothesize that spatio-temporal variability of MM A incidence between years and HCCAs result from variations in the intensity or duration of the dry season climatic effects on disease risk, and is further impacted by factors of spatial contacts, representing facilitated pathogen transmission. Additional unexplained factors may contribute to the observed incidence patterns and should be further investigated.

Identifying optimal vaccination strategies for serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis conjugate vaccine in the African meningitis belt

Objective

The optimal long-term vaccination strategies to provide population-level protection against serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis (MenA) are unknown. We developed an age-structured mathematical model of MenA transmission, colonization, and disease in the African meningitis belt, and used this model to explore the impact of various vaccination strategies.

Methods

The model stratifies the simulated population into groups based on age, infection status, and MenA antibody levels. We defined the model parameters (such as birth and death rates, age-specific incidence rates, and age-specific duration of protection) using published data and maximum likelihood estimation. We assessed the validity of the model by comparing simulated incidence of invasive MenA and prevalence of MenA carriage to observed incidence and carriage data.

Results

The model fit well to observed age- and season-specific prevalence of carriage (mean pseudo-R2 0.84) and incidence of invasive disease (mean R2 0.89). The model is able to reproduce the observed dynamics of MenA epidemics in the African meningitis belt, including seasonal increases in incidence, with large epidemics occurring every eight to twelve years. Following a mass vaccination campaign of all persons 1–29 years of age, the most effective modeled vaccination strategy is to conduct mass vaccination campaigns every 5 years for children 1–5 years of age. Less frequent campaigns covering broader age groups would also be effective, although somewhat less so. Introducing conjugate MenA vaccine into the EPI vaccination schedule at 9 months of age results in higher predicted incidence than periodic mass campaigns.

Discussion

We have developed the first mathematical model of MenA in Africa to incorporate age structures and progressively waning protection over time. Our model accurately reproduces key features of MenA epidemiology in the African meningitis belt. This model can help policy makers consider vaccine program effectiveness when determining the feasibility and benefits of MenA vaccination strategies.

Seroprevalence of bactericidal, specific IgG antibodies and incidence of meningitis due to group A Neisseria meningitidis by age in Burkina Faso 2008

Background

We investigated serological correlates of protection against Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A (NmA) in Burkina Faso before the introduction of NmA conjugate vaccine.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We collected blood from a representative sample (N = 1022) of Bobo-Dioulasso residents. Sera were evaluated for serum bactericidal antibody (SBA) activity against NmA strains of immunotype L11 (F8238) and L10 (3125) and NmA-specific IgG. Seroprevalence was compared to the age-specific NmA meningitis incidence in Bobo-Dioulasso during March 2007–February 2008. Meningococcal carriage was evaluated in a subset (N = 538). Geometric mean titres (GMT)/concentrations (GMC) of SBA and NmA-specific IgG increased with age, peaking around age 20 years. Overall, 70% of our sample had NmA-specific IgG ≥2 ug/mL. Meningitis incidence was highest in those aged <6 months and 5–19 years. No NmA carriers were found. Compared to the reference strain SBA, GMTs were higher against a locally isolated strain and around 40-fold lower against Dutch strain 3125.

Conclusions/Significance

This study provides estimates of natural immunity to NmA, according to a variety of antibody measures, which will be helpful in ascertaining antibody persistence after MenAfriVac™ introduction. Age-specific seroprevalence of reference strain SBA titres most likely reflects exposure to meningococci and consecutive reactive immunity. We could not define any serological correlate of protection.

Seasonality of meningitis in Africa and climate forcing: aerosols stand out

Bacterial meningitis is an ongoing threat for the population of the African Meningitis Belt, a region characterized by the highest incidence rates worldwide. The determinants of the disease dynamics are still poorly understood; nevertheless, it is often advocated that climate and mineral dust have a large impact. Over the last decade, several studies have investigated this relationship at a large scale. In this analysis, we scaled down to the district-level weekly scale (which is used for in-year response to emerging epidemics), and used wavelet and phase analysis methods to define and compare the time-varying periodicities of meningitis, climate and dust in Niger. We mostly focused on detecting time-lags between the signals that were consistent across districts. Results highlighted the special case of dust in comparison to wind, humidity or temperature: a strong similarity between districts is noticed in the evolution of the time-lags between the seasonal component of dust and meningitis. This result, together with the assumption of dust damaging the pharyngeal mucosa and easing bacterial invasion, reinforces our confidence in dust forcing on meningitis seasonality. Dust data should now be integrated in epidemiological and forecasting models to make them more realistic and usable in a public health perspective.

The fundamental link between pneumococcal carriage and disease

Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) is a major cause of worldwide mortality and morbidity, and to a large extent is vaccine-preventable. Nasopharyngeal carriage of pneumococcus precedes disease and is the source of pneumococcal spread between people. The use of vaccine effect on carriage as part of the vaccine licensure and post-vaccine introduction evaluation could facilitate and expand the licensure of new, life-saving pneumococcal vaccines and enable a comprehensive estimate of population effects after vaccine introduction. The authors provide a review of the evidence supporting pneumococcal carriage at the individual level as an immediate and necessary precursor to pneumococcal disease. Based on such a causal link between carriage and disease, the authors emphasize the role of information on pneumococcal carriage in vaccine trials and in public health decision-making.

A multi-state spatio-temporal Markov model for categorized incidence of meningitis in sub-Saharan Africa

Meningococcal meningitis is a major public health problem in the African Belt. Despite the obvious seasonality of epidemics, the factors driving them are still poorly understood. Here, we provide a first attempt to predict epidemics at the spatio-temporal scale required for in-year response, using a purely empirical approach. District-level weekly incidence rates for Niger (1986-2007) were discretized into latent, alert and epidemic states according to pre-specified epidemiological thresholds. We modelled the probabilities of transition between states, accounting for seasonality and spatio-temporal dependence. One-week-ahead predictions for entering the epidemic state were generated with specificity and negative predictive value >99%, sensitivity and positive predictive value >72%. On the annual scale, we predict the first entry of a district into the epidemic state with sensitivity 65∙0%, positive predictive value 49∙0%, and an average time gained of 4∙6 weeks. These results could inform decisions on preparatory actions.

Analysing spatio-temporal clustering of meningococcal meningitis outbreaks in Niger reveals opportunities for improved disease control

BACKGROUND

Meningococcal meningitis is a major health problem in the "African Meningitis Belt" where recurrent epidemics occur during the hot, dry season. In Niger, a central country belonging to the Meningitis Belt, reported meningitis cases varied between 1,000 and 13,000 from 2003 to 2009, with a case-fatality rate of 5-15%.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

In order to gain insight in the epidemiology of meningococcal meningitis in Niger and to improve control strategies, the emergence of the epidemics and their diffusion patterns at a fine spatial scale have been investigated. A statistical analysis of the spatio-temporal distribution of confirmed meningococcal meningitis cases was performed between 2002 and 2009, based on health centre catchment areas (HCCAs) as spatial units. Anselin's local Moran's I test for spatial autocorrelation and Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic were used to identify spatial and spatio-temporal clusters of cases. Spatial clusters were detected every year and most frequently occurred within nine southern districts. Clusters most often encompassed few HCCAs within a district, without expanding to the entire district. Besides, strong intra-district heterogeneity and inter-annual variability in the spatio-temporal epidemic patterns were observed. To further investigate the benefit of using a finer spatial scale for surveillance and disease control, we compared timeliness of epidemic detection at the HCCA level versus district level and showed that a decision based on threshold estimated at the HCCA level may lead to earlier detection of outbreaks.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our findings provide an evidence-based approach to improve control of meningitis in sub-Saharan Africa. First, they can assist public health authorities in Niger to better adjust allocation of resources (antibiotics, rapid diagnostic tests and medical staff). Then, this spatio-temporal analysis showed that surveillance at a finer spatial scale (HCCA) would be more efficient for public health response: outbreaks would be detected earlier and reactive vaccination would be better targeted.