1
|
Jitvaropas R, Sawaswong V, Poovorawan Y, Auysawasdi N, Vuthitanachot V, Wongwairot S, Rodkvamtook W, Lindroth E, Payungporn S, Linsuwanon P. Identification of Bacteria and Viruses Associated with Patients with Acute Febrile Illness in Khon Kaen Province, Thailand. Viruses 2024; 16:630. [PMID: 38675971 PMCID: PMC11054472 DOI: 10.3390/v16040630] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2024] [Accepted: 04/08/2024] [Indexed: 04/28/2024] Open
Abstract
The majority of cases of undifferentiated acute febrile illness (AFI) in the tropics have an undefined etiology. In Thailand, AFI accounts for two-thirds of illnesses reported to the Ministry of Public Health. To characterize the bacterial and viral causes of these AFIs, we conducted molecular pathogen screening and serological analyses in patients who sought treatment in Chum Phae Hospital, Khon Kaen province, during the period from 2015 to 2016. Through integrated approaches, we successfully identified the etiology in 25.5% of cases, with dengue virus infection being the most common cause, noted in 17% of the study population, followed by scrub typhus in 3.8% and rickettsioses in 6.8%. Further investigations targeting viruses in patients revealed the presence of Guadeloupe mosquito virus (GMV) in four patients without other pathogen co-infections. The characterization of four complete genome sequences of GMV amplified from AFI patients showed a 93-97% nucleotide sequence identity with GMV previously reported in mosquitoes. Nucleotide substitutions resulted in amino acid differences between GMV amplified from AFI patients and mosquitoes, observed in 37 positions. However, these changes had undergone purifying selection pressure and potentially had a minimal impact on protein function. Our study suggests that the GMV strains identified in the AFI patients are relatively similar to those previously reported in mosquitoes, highlighting their potential role associated with febrile illness.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Rungrat Jitvaropas
- Division of Biochemistry, Department of Preclinical Science, Faculty of Medicine, Thammasat University, Pathum Thani 12120, Thailand;
| | - Vorthon Sawaswong
- Center of Excellence in Systems Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok 10330, Thailand;
| | - Yong Poovorawan
- Center of Excellence in Clinical Virology, Department of Pediatrics, Faculty of Medicine, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok 10330, Thailand;
| | - Nutthanun Auysawasdi
- Department of Entomology, US Medical Directorate-Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Science, Bangkok 10400, Thailand; (N.A.); (S.W.); (E.L.)
| | | | - Sirima Wongwairot
- Department of Entomology, US Medical Directorate-Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Science, Bangkok 10400, Thailand; (N.A.); (S.W.); (E.L.)
| | - Wuttikon Rodkvamtook
- Analytic Division, Royal Thai Army Component-Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Science, Bangkok 10400, Thailand;
| | - Erica Lindroth
- Department of Entomology, US Medical Directorate-Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Science, Bangkok 10400, Thailand; (N.A.); (S.W.); (E.L.)
| | - Sunchai Payungporn
- Center of Excellence in Systems Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok 10330, Thailand;
- Department of Biochemistry, Faculty of Medicine, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok 10330, Thailand
| | - Piyada Linsuwanon
- Department of Entomology, US Medical Directorate-Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Science, Bangkok 10400, Thailand; (N.A.); (S.W.); (E.L.)
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Qian J, Wu Y, Zhu C, Chen Q, Chu H, Liu L, Wang C, Luo Y, Yue N, Li W, Yang X, Yi J, Ye F, He J, Qi Y, Lu F, Wang C, Tan W. Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and long-term impact of meteorological, environmental, and socio-economic factors on scrub typhus in China from 2006 to 2018. BMC Public Health 2024; 24:538. [PMID: 38383355 PMCID: PMC10880311 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-17233-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2023] [Accepted: 11/15/2023] [Indexed: 02/23/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Large-scale outbreaks of scrub typhus combined with its emergence in new areas as a vector-borne rickettsiosis highlight the ongoing neglect of this disease. This study aims to explore the long-term changes and regional leading factors of scrub typhus in China, with the goal of providing valuable insights for disease prevention and control. METHODS This study utilized a Bayesian space-time hierarchical model (BSTHM) to examine the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of scrub typhus and analyze the relationship between environmental factors and scrub typhus in southern and northern China from 2006 to 2018. Additionally, a GeoDetector model was employed to assess the predominant influences of geographical and socioeconomic factors in both regions. RESULTS Scrub typhus exhibits a seasonal pattern, typically occurring during the summer and autumn months (June to November), with a peak in October. Geographically, the high-risk regions, or hot spots, are concentrated in the south, while the low-risk regions, or cold spots, are located in the north. Moreover, the distribution of scrub typhus is influenced by environment and socio-economic factors. In the north and south, the dominant factors are the monthly normalized vegetation index (NDVI) and temperature. An increase in NDVI per interquartile range (IQR) leads to a 7.580% decrease in scrub typhus risk in northern China, and a 19.180% increase in the southern. Similarly, of 1 IQR increase in temperature reduces the risk of scrub typhus by 10.720% in the north but increases it by 15.800% in the south. In terms of geographical and socio-economic factors, illiteracy rate and altitude are the key determinants in the respective areas, with q-values of 0.844 and 0.882. CONCLUSIONS These results indicated that appropriate climate, environment, and social conditions would increase the risk of scrub typhus. This study provided helpful suggestions and a basis for reasonably allocating resources and controlling the occurrence of scrub typhus.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jiaojiao Qian
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
- Nanjing Bioengineering (Gene) Technology Center for Medicines, Nanjing, China
| | - Yifan Wu
- Nanjing Bioengineering (Gene) Technology Center for Medicines, Nanjing, China
| | - Changqiang Zhu
- Nanjing Bioengineering (Gene) Technology Center for Medicines, Nanjing, China
| | - Qiong Chen
- Nanjing Bioengineering (Gene) Technology Center for Medicines, Nanjing, China
| | - Hongliang Chu
- Center for Disease Prevention and Control of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
| | - Licheng Liu
- Nanjing Bioengineering (Gene) Technology Center for Medicines, Nanjing, China
| | - Chongcai Wang
- Hainan International Travel Healthcare Center, Haikou, Hainan, China
| | - Yizhe Luo
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
- Nanjing Bioengineering (Gene) Technology Center for Medicines, Nanjing, China
| | - Na Yue
- Nanjing Bioengineering (Gene) Technology Center for Medicines, Nanjing, China
| | - Wenhao Li
- Nanjing Bioengineering (Gene) Technology Center for Medicines, Nanjing, China
| | - Xiaohong Yang
- Nanjing Bioengineering (Gene) Technology Center for Medicines, Nanjing, China
| | - Jing Yi
- Department of Transfusion Medicine, Xijing Hospital, Fourth Military Medical University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Fuqiang Ye
- Nanjing Bioengineering (Gene) Technology Center for Medicines, Nanjing, China
| | - Ji He
- Xiamen International Travel Health Care Center (Xiamen Customs Port Outpatient Department), Xiamen, China
| | - Yong Qi
- Nanjing Bioengineering (Gene) Technology Center for Medicines, Nanjing, China
| | - Fei Lu
- College of Information Engineering, Zhejiang University of Technology, Liuhe Rd. 288, Hangzhou, 310023, China.
| | - Chunhui Wang
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China.
- Nanjing Bioengineering (Gene) Technology Center for Medicines, Nanjing, China.
| | - Weilong Tan
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China.
- Nanjing Bioengineering (Gene) Technology Center for Medicines, Nanjing, China.
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Peng PY, Duan HY, Xu L, Zhang LT, Sun JQ, Zu Y, Ma LJ, Sun Y, Yan TL, Guo XG. Epidemiologic changes of a longitudinal surveillance study spanning 51 years of scrub typhus in mainland China. Sci Rep 2024; 14:3138. [PMID: 38326459 PMCID: PMC10850489 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-53800-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/29/2023] [Accepted: 02/05/2024] [Indexed: 02/09/2024] Open
Abstract
Scrub typhus may be one of the world's most prevalent, neglected and serious, but easily treatable, febrile diseases. It has become a significant potential threat to public health in China. In this study we used national disease surveillance data to analyze the incidence and spatial-temporal distribution of scrub typhus in mainland China during 1952-1989 and 2006-2018. Descriptive epidemiological methods and spatial-temporal epidemiological methods were used to investigate the epidemiological trends and identify high-risk regions of scrub typhus infection. Over the 51-year period, a total of 182,991 cases and 186 deaths were notified. The average annual incidence was 0.13 cases/100,000 population during 1952-1989. The incidence increased sharply from 0.09/100,000 population in 2006 to 1.93/100,000 population in 2018 and then exponentially increased after 2006. The incidence was significantly higher in females than males (χ2 = 426.32, P < 0.001). Farmers had a higher incidence of scrub typhus than non-farmers (χ2 = 684.58, P < 0.001). The majority of cases each year were reported between July and November with peak incidence occurring during October each year. The trend surface analysis showed that the incidence of scrub typhus increased gradually from north to south, and from east and west to the central area. The spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that a spatial positive correlation existed in the prevalence of scrub typhus on a national scale, which had the characteristic of aggregated distribution (I = 0.533, P < 0.05). LISA analysis showed hotspots (High-High) were primarily located in the southern and southwestern provinces of China with the geographical area expanding annually. These findings provide scientific evidence for the surveillance and control of scrub typhus which may contribute to targeted strategies and measures for the government.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Pei-Ying Peng
- Institute of Microbiology of Qujing Medical College, Qujing, 655011, Yunnan Province, China.
| | - Hui-Ying Duan
- Institute of Microbiology of Qujing Medical College, Qujing, 655011, Yunnan Province, China
| | - Lei Xu
- Institute of Microbiology of Qujing Medical College, Qujing, 655011, Yunnan Province, China
| | - Lin-Tao Zhang
- Institute of Microbiology of Qujing Medical College, Qujing, 655011, Yunnan Province, China
| | - Ji-Qin Sun
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, Qujing Second People's Hospital, Qujing, 655011, Yunnan Province, China
| | - Ya Zu
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, Qujing Second People's Hospital, Qujing, 655011, Yunnan Province, China
| | - Li-Juan Ma
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, Qujing Second People's Hospital, Qujing, 655011, Yunnan Province, China
| | - Yan Sun
- Institute of Microbiology of Qujing Medical College, Qujing, 655011, Yunnan Province, China
| | - Ting-Liang Yan
- Institute of Microbiology of Qujing Medical College, Qujing, 655011, Yunnan Province, China
| | - Xian-Guo Guo
- Institute of Pathogens and Vectors, Yunnan Provincial Key Laboratory for Zoonosis Control and Prevention, Dali University, Dali, 671000, Yunnan, China
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Kim Y, Oka K, Kawazu EC, Ng CFS, Seposo X, Ueda K, Hashizume M, Honda Y. Enhancing health resilience in Japan in a changing climate. THE LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. WESTERN PACIFIC 2023; 40:100970. [PMID: 38116496 PMCID: PMC10730320 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2023.100970] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/28/2023] [Revised: 10/17/2023] [Accepted: 11/02/2023] [Indexed: 12/21/2023]
Abstract
Climate change poses significant threats to human health, propelling Japan to take decisive action through the Climate Change Adaptation Act of 2018. This Act has led to the implementation of climate change adaptation policies across various sectors, including healthcare. In this review, we synthesized existing scientific evidence on the impacts of climate change on health in Japan and outlined the adaptation strategies and measures implemented by the central and local governments. The country has prioritized tackling heat-related illness and mortality and undertaken various adaptation measures to mitigate these risks. However, it faces unique challenges due to its super-aged society. Ensuring effective and coordinated strategies to address the growing uncertainties in vulnerability to climate change and the complex intersectoral impacts of disasters remains a critical issue. To combat the additional health risks by climate change, a comprehensive approach embracing adaptation and mitigation policies in the health sector is crucial. Encouraging intersectoral communication and collaboration will be vital for developing coherent and effective strategies to safeguard public health in the face of climate change.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Yoonhee Kim
- Department of Global Environmental Health, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Japan
| | - Kazutaka Oka
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan
| | | | - Chris Fook Sheng Ng
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Japan
| | - Xerxes Seposo
- Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Japan
| | - Kayo Ueda
- Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Japan
| | - Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Japan
- Department of Global Health, School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Japan
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Wei X, He J, Yin W, Soares Magalhaes RJ, Wang Y, Xu Y, Wen L, Sun Y, Zhang W, Sun H. Spatiotemporal dynamics and environmental determinants of scrub typhus in Anhui Province, China, 2010-2020. Sci Rep 2023; 13:2131. [PMID: 36747027 PMCID: PMC9902522 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-29373-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/13/2022] [Accepted: 02/03/2023] [Indexed: 02/08/2023] Open
Abstract
This study aims to describe the epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhus, detect the spatio-temporal patterns of scrub typhus at county level, and explore the associations between the environmental variables and scrub typhus cases in Anhui Province. Time-series analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and space-time scan statistics were used to explore the characteristics and spatiotemporal patterns of the scrub typhus in Anhui Province. Negative binomial regression analysis was used to explore the association between scrub typhus and environmental variables. A total of 16,568 clinically diagnosed and laboratory-confirmed cases were reported from 104 counties of 16 prefecture-level cities. The number of female cases was higher than male cases, with a proportion of 1.32:1. And the proportion of cases over 65 years old was the highest, accounting for 33.8% of the total cases. Two primary and five secondary high-risk clusters were detected in the northwestern, northeastern, and central-eastern parts of Anhui Province. The number of cases in primary and secondary high-risk clusters accounted for 60.27% and 3.00%, respectively. Scrub typhus incidence in Anhui Province was positively correlated with the population density, normalized difference vegetation index, and several meteorological variables. The mean monthly sunshine duration with 3 lags (SSD_lag3), mean monthly ground surface temperature with 1 lag (GST_lag1), and mean monthly relative humidity with 3 lags (RHU_lag3) had the most significant association with increased cases of scrub typhus. Our findings indicate that public health interventions need to be focused on the elderly farmers in north of the Huai River in Anhui Province.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Xianyu Wei
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China.,Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Junyu He
- Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan, China.,Ocean Academy, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan, China
| | - Wenwu Yin
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Ricardo J Soares Magalhaes
- Spatial Epidemiology Laboratory, School of Veterinary Science, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia.,Child Health Research Center, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Yanding Wang
- Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Yuanyong Xu
- Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Liang Wen
- Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Yehuan Sun
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
| | - Wenyi Zhang
- Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
| | - Hailong Sun
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China. .,Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Han L, Sun Z, Li Z, Zhang Y, Tong S, Qin T. Impacts of meteorological factors on the risk of scrub typhus in China, from 2006 to 2020: A multicenter retrospective study. Front Microbiol 2023; 14:1118001. [PMID: 36910234 PMCID: PMC9996048 DOI: 10.3389/fmicb.2023.1118001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2022] [Accepted: 02/08/2023] [Indexed: 02/25/2023] Open
Abstract
Scrub typhus is emerging as a global public health threat owing to its increased prevalence and remarkable geographic expansion. However, it remains a neglected disease, and possible influences of meteorological factors on its risk are poorly understood. We conducted the largest-scale research to assess the impact of meteorological factors on scrub typhus in China. Weekly data on scrub typhus cases and meteorological factors were collected across 59 prefecture-level administrative regions from 2006 to 2020. First, we divided these regions into 3 regions and analyzed the epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhus. We then applied the distributed lag nonlinear model, combined with multivariate meta-analysis, to examine the associations between meteorological factors and scrub typhus incidence at the total and regional levels. Subsequently, we identified the critical meteorological predictors of scrub typhus incidence and extracted climate risk windows. We observed distinct epidemiological characteristics across regions, featuring obvious clustering in the East and Southwest with more even distribution and longer epidemic duration in the South. The mean temperature and relative humidity had profound effects on scrub typhus with initial-elevated-descendent patterns. Weather conditions of weekly mean temperatures of 25-33°C and weekly relative humidity of 60-95% were risk windows for scrub typhus. Additionally, the heavy rainfall was associated with sharp increase in scrub typhus incidence. We identified specific climatic signals to detect the epidemic of scrub typhus, which were easily monitored to generalize. Regional heterogeneity should be considered for targeted monitoring and disease control strategies.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ling Han
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Zhaobin Sun
- Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China.,China Meteorological Administration Urban Meteorology Key Laboratory, Beijing, China
| | - Ziming Li
- Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
| | - Yunfei Zhang
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Shilu Tong
- Shanghai Children's Medical Center, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.,School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Population Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China.,Center for Global Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China.,School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | - Tian Qin
- State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Mojahed N, Mohammadkhani MA, Mohamadkhani A. Climate Crises and Developing Vector-Borne Diseases: A Narrative Review. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 51:2664-2673. [PMID: 36742229 PMCID: PMC9874214 DOI: 10.18502/ijph.v51i12.11457] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/15/2022] [Accepted: 08/09/2022] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
Background Climate change based on temperature, humidity and wind can improve many characteristics of the arthropod carrier life cycle, including survival, arthropod population, pathogen communication, and the spread of infectious agents from vectors. This study aimed to find association between content of disease followed climate change we demonstrate in humans. Methods All the articles from 2016 to 2021 associated with global climate change and the effect of vector-borne disease were selected form databases including PubMed and the Global Biodiversity information facility database. All the articles selected for this short review were English. Results Due to the high burden of infectious diseases and the growing evidence of the possible effects of climate change on the incidence of these diseases, these climate changes can potentially be involved with the COVID-19 epidemic. We highlighted the evidence of vector-borne diseases and the possible effects of climate change on these communicable diseases. Conclusion Climate change, specifically in rising temperature system is one of the world's greatest concerns already affected pathogen-vector and host relation. Lice parasitic, fleas, mites, ticks, and mosquitos are the prime public health importance in the transmission of virus to human hosts.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Nooshin Mojahed
- Liver and Pancreatobiliary Diseases Research Center, Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Shariati Hospital, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Ashraf Mohamadkhani
- Liver and Pancreatobiliary Diseases Research Center, Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Shariati Hospital, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran,Corresponding Author:
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Ding F, Wang Q, Hao M, Maude RJ, John Day NP, Lai S, Chen S, Fang L, Ma T, Zheng C, Jiang D. Climate drives the spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus in China. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:6618-6628. [PMID: 36056457 PMCID: PMC9825873 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16395] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/23/2022] [Accepted: 07/12/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Scrub typhus is a climate-sensitive and life-threatening vector-borne disease that poses a growing public health threat. Although the climate-epidemic associations of many vector-borne diseases have been studied for decades, the impacts of climate on scrub typhus remain poorly understood, especially in the context of global warming. Here we incorporate Chinese national surveillance data on scrub typhus from 2010 to 2019 into a climate-driven generalized additive mixed model to explain the spatiotemporal dynamics of this disease and predict how it may be affected by climate change under various representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for three future time periods (the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). Our results demonstrate that temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity play key roles in driving the seasonal epidemic of scrub typhus in mainland China with a 2-month lag. Our findings show that the change of projected spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus will be heterogeneous and will depend on specific combinations of regional climate conditions in future climate scenarios. Our results contribute to a better understanding of spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus, which can help public health authorities refine their prevention and control measures to reduce the risks resulting from climate change.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Fangyu Ding
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
- College of Resources and EnvironmentUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
| | - Qian Wang
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global HealthUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
- Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Faculty of Tropical MedicineMahidol UniversityBangkokThailand
| | - Mengmeng Hao
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
- College of Resources and EnvironmentUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
| | - Richard James Maude
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global HealthUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
- Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Faculty of Tropical MedicineMahidol UniversityBangkokThailand
- Harvard TH Chan School of Public HealthHarvard UniversityBostonMassachusettsUSA
| | - Nicholas Philip John Day
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global HealthUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
- Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Faculty of Tropical MedicineMahidol UniversityBangkokThailand
| | - Shengjie Lai
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental ScienceUniversity of SouthamptonSouthamptonUK
| | - Shuai Chen
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
- College of Resources and EnvironmentUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
| | - Liqun Fang
- State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and BiosecurityBeijing Institute of Microbiology and EpidemiologyBeijingChina
| | - Tian Ma
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
- College of Resources and EnvironmentUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
| | - Canjun Zheng
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijingChina
| | - Dong Jiang
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
- College of Resources and EnvironmentUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
| |
Collapse
|
9
|
He J, Wang Y, Liu P, Yin W, Wei X, Sun H, Xu Y, Li S, Soares Magalhaes RJ, Guo Y, Zhang W. Co-effects of global climatic dynamics and local climatic factors on scrub typhus in mainland China based on a nine-year time-frequency analysis. One Health 2022; 15:100446. [PMID: 36277104 PMCID: PMC9582591 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2022.100446] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2022] [Revised: 09/04/2022] [Accepted: 10/11/2022] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Scrub Typhus (ST) is a rickettsial disease caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi. The number of ST cases has been increasing in China during the past decades, which attracts great concerns of the public health. Methods We obtained monthly documented ST cases greater than 54 cases in 434 counties of China during 2012-2020. Spatiotemporal wavelet analysis was conducted to identify the ST clusters with similar pattern of the temporal variation and explore the association between ST variation and El Niño and La Niña events. Wavelet coherency analysis and partial wavelet coherency analysis was employed to further explore the co-effects of global and local climatic factors on ST. Results Wavelet cluster analysis detected seven clusters in China, three of which are mainly distributed in Eastern China, while the other four clusters are located in the Southern China. Among the seven clusters, summer and autumn-winter peak of ST are the two main outbreak periods; while stable and fluctuated periodic feature of ST series was found at 12-month and 4-(or 6-) month according to the wavelet power spectra. Similarly, the three-character bands were also found in the associations between ST and El Niño and La Niña events, among which the 12-month period band showed weakest climate-ST association and the other two bands owned stronger association, indicating that the global climate dynamics may have short-term effects on the ST variations. Meanwhile, 12-month period band with strong association was found between the four local climatic factors (precipitation, pressure, relative humidity and temperature) and the ST variations. Further, partial wavelet coherency analysis suggested that global climatic dynamics dominate annual ST variations, while local climatic factors dominate the small periods. Conclusion The ST variations are not directly attributable to the change in large-scale climate. The existence of these plausible climatic determinants stimulates the interests for more insights into the epidemiology of ST, which is important for devising prevention and early warning strategies.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Junyu He
- Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan, China,Ocean Academy, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan, China
| | - Yong Wang
- Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Ping Liu
- Department of General Practice, Chinese PLA General Hospital-Sixth Medical Center, Beijing, China
| | - Wenwu Yin
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Xianyu Wei
- Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Hailong Sun
- Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Yuanyong Xu
- Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Shanshan Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Ricardo J. Soares Magalhaes
- Spatial Epidemiology Laboratory, School of Veterinary Science, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia,Child Health Research Center, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Yuming Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia,Correspondence to: Y Guo, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Level 2, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia.
| | - Wenyi Zhang
- Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China,Correspondence to: W Zhang, Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 20 Dong-Da Street, Fengtai District, Beijing 100071, China.
| |
Collapse
|
10
|
Liao H, Hu J, Shan X, Yang F, Wei W, Wang S, Guo B, Lan Y. The Temporal Lagged Relationship Between Meteorological Factors and Scrub Typhus With the Distributed Lag Non-linear Model in Rural Southwest China. Front Public Health 2022; 10:926641. [PMID: 35937262 PMCID: PMC9355273 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.926641] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2022] [Accepted: 06/21/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background:Meteorological factors can affect the emergence of scrub typhus for a period lasting days to weeks after their occurrence. Furthermore, the relationship between meteorological factors and scrub typhus is complicated because of lagged and non-linear patterns. Investigating the lagged correlation patterns between meteorological variables and scrub typhus may promote an understanding of this association and be beneficial for preventing disease outbreaks.MethodsWe extracted data on scrub typhus cases in rural areas of Panzhihua in Southwest China every week from 2008 to 2017 from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. The distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to study the temporal lagged correlation between weekly meteorological factors and weekly scrub typhus.ResultsThere were obvious lagged associations between some weather factors (rainfall, relative humidity, and air temperature) and scrub typhus with the same overall effect trend, an inverse-U shape; moreover, different meteorological factors had different significant delayed contributions compared with reference values in many cases. In addition, at the same lag time, the relative risk increased with the increase of exposure level for all weather variables when presenting a positive association.ConclusionsThe results found that different meteorological factors have different patterns and magnitudes for the lagged correlation between weather factors and scrub typhus. The lag shape and association for meteorological information is applicable for developing an early warning system for scrub typhus.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Hongxiu Liao
- West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- Panzhihua City Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Panzhihua, China
| | - Jinliang Hu
- West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- Institute of Health Policy & Hospital Management, Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital, Chinese Academy of Sciences Sichuan Translational Medicine Research Hospital, Chengdu, China
| | - Xuzheng Shan
- West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Fan Yang
- West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Wen Wei
- West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Suqin Wang
- Panzhihua City Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Panzhihua, China
| | - Bing Guo
- West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Yajia Lan
- West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- *Correspondence: Yajia Lan
| |
Collapse
|
11
|
Bhopdhornangkul B, Meeyai AC, Wongwit W, Limpanont Y, Iamsirithaworn S, Laosiritaworn Y, Tantrakarnapa K. Non-linear effect of different humidity types on scrub typhus occurrence in endemic provinces, Thailand. Heliyon 2021; 7:e06095. [PMID: 33665401 PMCID: PMC7905364 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e06095] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2019] [Revised: 04/15/2019] [Accepted: 01/20/2021] [Indexed: 12/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Reported monthly scrub typhus (ST) cases in Thailand has an increase in the number of cases during 2009–2014. Humidity is a crucial climatic factor for the survival of chiggers, which is the disease vectors. The present study was to determine the role of humidity in ST occurrence in Thailand and its delayed effect. Methods We obtained the climate data from the Department of Meteorology, the disease data from Ministry of Public Health. Negative binomial regression combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (NB-DLNM) was employed to determine the non-linear effects of different types of humidity on the disease. This model controlled overdispersion and confounder, including seasonality, minimum temperature, and cumulative total rainwater. Results The occurrence of the disease in the 6-year period showed the number of cases gradually increased summer season (Mid-February – Mid-May) and then reached a plateau during the rainy season (Mid-May – Mid-October) and then steep fall after the cold season (Mid-October – Mid-February). The high level (at 70%) of minimum relative humidity (RHmin) was associated with a 33% (RR 1.33, 95% CI 1.13–1.57) significant increase in the number of the disease; a high level (at 14 g/m3) of minimum absolute humidity (AHmin) was associated with a 30% (RR 1.30, 95% CI 1.14–1.48); a high level (at 1.4 g/kg) of minimum specific humidity (SHmin) was associated with a 28% (RR 1.28, 95% CI 1.04–1.57). The significant effects of these types of humidity occurred within the past month. Conclusion Humidity played a significant role in enhancing ST cases in Thailand, particularly at a high level and usually occurred within the past month. NB-DLNM had good controlled for the overdispersion and provided the precise estimated relative risk of non-linear associations. Results from this study contributed the evidence to support the Ministry of Public Health on warning system which might be useful for public health intervention and preparation in Thailand.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Bhophkrit Bhopdhornangkul
- Department of Social and Environmental Medicine, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Ratchathewi, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Aronrag Cooper Meeyai
- Centre for Tropical Medicine & Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Waranya Wongwit
- Department of Social and Environmental Medicine, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Ratchathewi, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Yanin Limpanont
- Department of Social and Environmental Medicine, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Ratchathewi, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Sopon Iamsirithaworn
- Bureau of Communicable Disease, Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi, Thailand
| | - Yongjua Laosiritaworn
- Bureau of Epidemiology, Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi, Thailand
| | - Kraichat Tantrakarnapa
- Department of Social and Environmental Medicine, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Ratchathewi, Bangkok, Thailand
| |
Collapse
|
12
|
Re-emergence of scrub typhus in Zhejiang Province, southern China: A 45-year population-based surveillance study. Travel Med Infect Dis 2019; 32:101427. [PMID: 31125615 DOI: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2019.05.013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2018] [Revised: 05/17/2019] [Accepted: 05/20/2019] [Indexed: 01/20/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Scrub typhus is the leading cause of treatable unidentified febrile illnesses in Southeast Asia. This study was conducted to document the epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhus and its change in Zhejiang, one of traditional epidemic provinces in China. METHODS Scrub typhus surveillance data in Zhejiang province during 1957-1989 and 2006-2012 were obtained. Descriptive analysis was conducted to characterize the epidemiology of scrub typhus. The spatial distributions over the periods were explored using spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatiotemporal cluster analysis. RESULTS A total of 4104 cases and 7 deaths were reported from 1957 to 1989 and 2006 to 2017. The incidence declined since 1959, remained low from 1967 to 1989, and then exponentially increased after 2006. The seasonality changed from a summer pattern between 1957 and 1989 to a bimodal peak pattern in July to August and October to November from 2006 to 2017. One primary and three secondary high-risk clusters were affirmed in both periods from 1980 to 1989 and 2006 to 2017. The primary cluster expanded southwestward and the time span of the secondary clusters extended in the later period compared to the clusters in the previous time frame. CONCLUSION Zhejiang recently underwent a seasonality change, geographic extension, and incidence increase in scrub typhus. More attention should be paid to controlling scrub typhus.
Collapse
|