Meteorological factors affecting scrub typhus occurrence: a retrospective study of Yamagata Prefecture, Japan, 1984–2014

Identification of Bacteria and Viruses Associated with Patients with Acute Febrile Illness in Khon Kaen Province, Thailand

The majority of cases of undifferentiated acute febrile illness (AFI) in the tropics have an undefined etiology. In Thailand, AFI accounts for two-thirds of illnesses reported to the Ministry of Public Health. To characterize the bacterial and viral causes of these AFIs, we conducted molecular pathogen screening and serological analyses in patients who sought treatment in Chum Phae Hospital, Khon Kaen province, during the period from 2015 to 2016. Through integrated approaches, we successfully identified the etiology in 25.5% of cases, with dengue virus infection being the most common cause, noted in 17% of the study population, followed by scrub typhus in 3.8% and rickettsioses in 6.8%. Further investigations targeting viruses in patients revealed the presence of Guadeloupe mosquito virus (GMV) in four patients without other pathogen co-infections. The characterization of four complete genome sequences of GMV amplified from AFI patients showed a 93-97% nucleotide sequence identity with GMV previously reported in mosquitoes. Nucleotide substitutions resulted in amino acid differences between GMV amplified from AFI patients and mosquitoes, observed in 37 positions. However, these changes had undergone purifying selection pressure and potentially had a minimal impact on protein function. Our study suggests that the GMV strains identified in the AFI patients are relatively similar to those previously reported in mosquitoes, highlighting their potential role associated with febrile illness.

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and long-term impact of meteorological, environmental, and socio-economic factors on scrub typhus in China from 2006 to 2018

BACKGROUND

Large-scale outbreaks of scrub typhus combined with its emergence in new areas as a vector-borne rickettsiosis highlight the ongoing neglect of this disease. This study aims to explore the long-term changes and regional leading factors of scrub typhus in China, with the goal of providing valuable insights for disease prevention and control.

METHODS

This study utilized a Bayesian space-time hierarchical model (BSTHM) to examine the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of scrub typhus and analyze the relationship between environmental factors and scrub typhus in southern and northern China from 2006 to 2018. Additionally, a GeoDetector model was employed to assess the predominant influences of geographical and socioeconomic factors in both regions.

RESULTS

Scrub typhus exhibits a seasonal pattern, typically occurring during the summer and autumn months (June to November), with a peak in October. Geographically, the high-risk regions, or hot spots, are concentrated in the south, while the low-risk regions, or cold spots, are located in the north. Moreover, the distribution of scrub typhus is influenced by environment and socio-economic factors. In the north and south, the dominant factors are the monthly normalized vegetation index (NDVI) and temperature. An increase in NDVI per interquartile range (IQR) leads to a 7.580% decrease in scrub typhus risk in northern China, and a 19.180% increase in the southern. Similarly, of 1 IQR increase in temperature reduces the risk of scrub typhus by 10.720% in the north but increases it by 15.800% in the south. In terms of geographical and socio-economic factors, illiteracy rate and altitude are the key determinants in the respective areas, with q-values of 0.844 and 0.882.

CONCLUSIONS

These results indicated that appropriate climate, environment, and social conditions would increase the risk of scrub typhus. This study provided helpful suggestions and a basis for reasonably allocating resources and controlling the occurrence of scrub typhus.

Epidemiologic changes of a longitudinal surveillance study spanning 51 years of scrub typhus in mainland China

Scrub typhus may be one of the world's most prevalent, neglected and serious, but easily treatable, febrile diseases. It has become a significant potential threat to public health in China. In this study we used national disease surveillance data to analyze the incidence and spatial-temporal distribution of scrub typhus in mainland China during 1952-1989 and 2006-2018. Descriptive epidemiological methods and spatial-temporal epidemiological methods were used to investigate the epidemiological trends and identify high-risk regions of scrub typhus infection. Over the 51-year period, a total of 182,991 cases and 186 deaths were notified. The average annual incidence was 0.13 cases/100,000 population during 1952-1989. The incidence increased sharply from 0.09/100,000 population in 2006 to 1.93/100,000 population in 2018 and then exponentially increased after 2006. The incidence was significantly higher in females than males (χ2 = 426.32, P < 0.001). Farmers had a higher incidence of scrub typhus than non-farmers (χ2 = 684.58, P < 0.001). The majority of cases each year were reported between July and November with peak incidence occurring during October each year. The trend surface analysis showed that the incidence of scrub typhus increased gradually from north to south, and from east and west to the central area. The spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that a spatial positive correlation existed in the prevalence of scrub typhus on a national scale, which had the characteristic of aggregated distribution (I = 0.533, P < 0.05). LISA analysis showed hotspots (High-High) were primarily located in the southern and southwestern provinces of China with the geographical area expanding annually. These findings provide scientific evidence for the surveillance and control of scrub typhus which may contribute to targeted strategies and measures for the government.

Enhancing health resilience in Japan in a changing climate

Climate change poses significant threats to human health, propelling Japan to take decisive action through the Climate Change Adaptation Act of 2018. This Act has led to the implementation of climate change adaptation policies across various sectors, including healthcare. In this review, we synthesized existing scientific evidence on the impacts of climate change on health in Japan and outlined the adaptation strategies and measures implemented by the central and local governments. The country has prioritized tackling heat-related illness and mortality and undertaken various adaptation measures to mitigate these risks. However, it faces unique challenges due to its super-aged society. Ensuring effective and coordinated strategies to address the growing uncertainties in vulnerability to climate change and the complex intersectoral impacts of disasters remains a critical issue. To combat the additional health risks by climate change, a comprehensive approach embracing adaptation and mitigation policies in the health sector is crucial. Encouraging intersectoral communication and collaboration will be vital for developing coherent and effective strategies to safeguard public health in the face of climate change.

Spatiotemporal dynamics and environmental determinants of scrub typhus in Anhui Province, China, 2010-2020

This study aims to describe the epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhus, detect the spatio-temporal patterns of scrub typhus at county level, and explore the associations between the environmental variables and scrub typhus cases in Anhui Province. Time-series analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and space-time scan statistics were used to explore the characteristics and spatiotemporal patterns of the scrub typhus in Anhui Province. Negative binomial regression analysis was used to explore the association between scrub typhus and environmental variables. A total of 16,568 clinically diagnosed and laboratory-confirmed cases were reported from 104 counties of 16 prefecture-level cities. The number of female cases was higher than male cases, with a proportion of 1.32:1. And the proportion of cases over 65 years old was the highest, accounting for 33.8% of the total cases. Two primary and five secondary high-risk clusters were detected in the northwestern, northeastern, and central-eastern parts of Anhui Province. The number of cases in primary and secondary high-risk clusters accounted for 60.27% and 3.00%, respectively. Scrub typhus incidence in Anhui Province was positively correlated with the population density, normalized difference vegetation index, and several meteorological variables. The mean monthly sunshine duration with 3 lags (SSD_lag3), mean monthly ground surface temperature with 1 lag (GST_lag1), and mean monthly relative humidity with 3 lags (RHU_lag3) had the most significant association with increased cases of scrub typhus. Our findings indicate that public health interventions need to be focused on the elderly farmers in north of the Huai River in Anhui Province.

Impacts of meteorological factors on the risk of scrub typhus in China, from 2006 to 2020: A multicenter retrospective study

Scrub typhus is emerging as a global public health threat owing to its increased prevalence and remarkable geographic expansion. However, it remains a neglected disease, and possible influences of meteorological factors on its risk are poorly understood. We conducted the largest-scale research to assess the impact of meteorological factors on scrub typhus in China. Weekly data on scrub typhus cases and meteorological factors were collected across 59 prefecture-level administrative regions from 2006 to 2020. First, we divided these regions into 3 regions and analyzed the epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhus. We then applied the distributed lag nonlinear model, combined with multivariate meta-analysis, to examine the associations between meteorological factors and scrub typhus incidence at the total and regional levels. Subsequently, we identified the critical meteorological predictors of scrub typhus incidence and extracted climate risk windows. We observed distinct epidemiological characteristics across regions, featuring obvious clustering in the East and Southwest with more even distribution and longer epidemic duration in the South. The mean temperature and relative humidity had profound effects on scrub typhus with initial-elevated-descendent patterns. Weather conditions of weekly mean temperatures of 25-33°C and weekly relative humidity of 60-95% were risk windows for scrub typhus. Additionally, the heavy rainfall was associated with sharp increase in scrub typhus incidence. We identified specific climatic signals to detect the epidemic of scrub typhus, which were easily monitored to generalize. Regional heterogeneity should be considered for targeted monitoring and disease control strategies.

Climate Crises and Developing Vector-Borne Diseases: A Narrative Review

Background

Climate change based on temperature, humidity and wind can improve many characteristics of the arthropod carrier life cycle, including survival, arthropod population, pathogen communication, and the spread of infectious agents from vectors. This study aimed to find association between content of disease followed climate change we demonstrate in humans.

Methods

All the articles from 2016 to 2021 associated with global climate change and the effect of vector-borne disease were selected form databases including PubMed and the Global Biodiversity information facility database. All the articles selected for this short review were English.

Results

Due to the high burden of infectious diseases and the growing evidence of the possible effects of climate change on the incidence of these diseases, these climate changes can potentially be involved with the COVID-19 epidemic. We highlighted the evidence of vector-borne diseases and the possible effects of climate change on these communicable diseases.

Conclusion

Climate change, specifically in rising temperature system is one of the world's greatest concerns already affected pathogen-vector and host relation. Lice parasitic, fleas, mites, ticks, and mosquitos are the prime public health importance in the transmission of virus to human hosts.

Climate drives the spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus in China

Scrub typhus is a climate-sensitive and life-threatening vector-borne disease that poses a growing public health threat. Although the climate-epidemic associations of many vector-borne diseases have been studied for decades, the impacts of climate on scrub typhus remain poorly understood, especially in the context of global warming. Here we incorporate Chinese national surveillance data on scrub typhus from 2010 to 2019 into a climate-driven generalized additive mixed model to explain the spatiotemporal dynamics of this disease and predict how it may be affected by climate change under various representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for three future time periods (the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). Our results demonstrate that temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity play key roles in driving the seasonal epidemic of scrub typhus in mainland China with a 2-month lag. Our findings show that the change of projected spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus will be heterogeneous and will depend on specific combinations of regional climate conditions in future climate scenarios. Our results contribute to a better understanding of spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus, which can help public health authorities refine their prevention and control measures to reduce the risks resulting from climate change.

Co-effects of global climatic dynamics and local climatic factors on scrub typhus in mainland China based on a nine-year time-frequency analysis

Background

Scrub Typhus (ST) is a rickettsial disease caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi. The number of ST cases has been increasing in China during the past decades, which attracts great concerns of the public health.

Methods

We obtained monthly documented ST cases greater than 54 cases in 434 counties of China during 2012-2020. Spatiotemporal wavelet analysis was conducted to identify the ST clusters with similar pattern of the temporal variation and explore the association between ST variation and El Niño and La Niña events. Wavelet coherency analysis and partial wavelet coherency analysis was employed to further explore the co-effects of global and local climatic factors on ST.

Results

Wavelet cluster analysis detected seven clusters in China, three of which are mainly distributed in Eastern China, while the other four clusters are located in the Southern China. Among the seven clusters, summer and autumn-winter peak of ST are the two main outbreak periods; while stable and fluctuated periodic feature of ST series was found at 12-month and 4-(or 6-) month according to the wavelet power spectra. Similarly, the three-character bands were also found in the associations between ST and El Niño and La Niña events, among which the 12-month period band showed weakest climate-ST association and the other two bands owned stronger association, indicating that the global climate dynamics may have short-term effects on the ST variations. Meanwhile, 12-month period band with strong association was found between the four local climatic factors (precipitation, pressure, relative humidity and temperature) and the ST variations. Further, partial wavelet coherency analysis suggested that global climatic dynamics dominate annual ST variations, while local climatic factors dominate the small periods.

Conclusion

The ST variations are not directly attributable to the change in large-scale climate. The existence of these plausible climatic determinants stimulates the interests for more insights into the epidemiology of ST, which is important for devising prevention and early warning strategies.

The Temporal Lagged Relationship Between Meteorological Factors and Scrub Typhus With the Distributed Lag Non-linear Model in Rural Southwest China

Background:

Meteorological factors can affect the emergence of scrub typhus for a period lasting days to weeks after their occurrence. Furthermore, the relationship between meteorological factors and scrub typhus is complicated because of lagged and non-linear patterns. Investigating the lagged correlation patterns between meteorological variables and scrub typhus may promote an understanding of this association and be beneficial for preventing disease outbreaks.

Methods

We extracted data on scrub typhus cases in rural areas of Panzhihua in Southwest China every week from 2008 to 2017 from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. The distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to study the temporal lagged correlation between weekly meteorological factors and weekly scrub typhus.

Results

There were obvious lagged associations between some weather factors (rainfall, relative humidity, and air temperature) and scrub typhus with the same overall effect trend, an inverse-U shape; moreover, different meteorological factors had different significant delayed contributions compared with reference values in many cases. In addition, at the same lag time, the relative risk increased with the increase of exposure level for all weather variables when presenting a positive association.

Conclusions

The results found that different meteorological factors have different patterns and magnitudes for the lagged correlation between weather factors and scrub typhus. The lag shape and association for meteorological information is applicable for developing an early warning system for scrub typhus.

Non-linear effect of different humidity types on scrub typhus occurrence in endemic provinces, Thailand

Background

Reported monthly scrub typhus (ST) cases in Thailand has an increase in the number of cases during 2009–2014. Humidity is a crucial climatic factor for the survival of chiggers, which is the disease vectors. The present study was to determine the role of humidity in ST occurrence in Thailand and its delayed effect.

Methods

We obtained the climate data from the Department of Meteorology, the disease data from Ministry of Public Health. Negative binomial regression combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (NB-DLNM) was employed to determine the non-linear effects of different types of humidity on the disease. This model controlled overdispersion and confounder, including seasonality, minimum temperature, and cumulative total rainwater.

Results

The occurrence of the disease in the 6-year period showed the number of cases gradually increased summer season (Mid-February – Mid-May) and then reached a plateau during the rainy season (Mid-May – Mid-October) and then steep fall after the cold season (Mid-October – Mid-February). The high level (at 70%) of minimum relative humidity (RHmin) was associated with a 33% (RR 1.33, 95% CI 1.13–1.57) significant increase in the number of the disease; a high level (at 14 g/m³) of minimum absolute humidity (AHmin) was associated with a 30% (RR 1.30, 95% CI 1.14–1.48); a high level (at 1.4 g/kg) of minimum specific humidity (SHmin) was associated with a 28% (RR 1.28, 95% CI 1.04–1.57). The significant effects of these types of humidity occurred within the past month.

Conclusion

Humidity played a significant role in enhancing ST cases in Thailand, particularly at a high level and usually occurred within the past month. NB-DLNM had good controlled for the overdispersion and provided the precise estimated relative risk of non-linear associations. Results from this study contributed the evidence to support the Ministry of Public Health on warning system which might be useful for public health intervention and preparation in Thailand.

Re-emergence of scrub typhus in Zhejiang Province, southern China: A 45-year population-based surveillance study

BACKGROUND

Scrub typhus is the leading cause of treatable unidentified febrile illnesses in Southeast Asia. This study was conducted to document the epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhus and its change in Zhejiang, one of traditional epidemic provinces in China.

METHODS

Scrub typhus surveillance data in Zhejiang province during 1957-1989 and 2006-2012 were obtained. Descriptive analysis was conducted to characterize the epidemiology of scrub typhus. The spatial distributions over the periods were explored using spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatiotemporal cluster analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 4104 cases and 7 deaths were reported from 1957 to 1989 and 2006 to 2017. The incidence declined since 1959, remained low from 1967 to 1989, and then exponentially increased after 2006. The seasonality changed from a summer pattern between 1957 and 1989 to a bimodal peak pattern in July to August and October to November from 2006 to 2017. One primary and three secondary high-risk clusters were affirmed in both periods from 1980 to 1989 and 2006 to 2017. The primary cluster expanded southwestward and the time span of the secondary clusters extended in the later period compared to the clusters in the previous time frame.

CONCLUSION

Zhejiang recently underwent a seasonality change, geographic extension, and incidence increase in scrub typhus. More attention should be paid to controlling scrub typhus.