On the origin and timing of Zika virus introduction in Brazil

Shifting patterns of dengue three years after Zika virus emergence in Brazil

In 2015, the Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Brazil, leading to widespread outbreaks in Latin America. Following this, many countries in these regions reported a significant drop in the circulation of dengue virus (DENV), which resurged in 2018-2019. We examine age-specific incidence data to investigate changes in DENV epidemiology before and after the emergence of ZIKV. We observe that incidence of DENV was concentrated in younger individuals during resurgence compared to 2013-2015. This trend was more pronounced in Brazilian states that had experienced larger ZIKV outbreaks. Using a mathematical model, we show that ZIKV-induced cross-protection alone, often invoked to explain DENV decline across Latin America, cannot explain the observed age-shift without also assuming some form of disease enhancement. Our results suggest that a sudden accumulation of population-level immunity to ZIKV could suppress DENV and reduce the mean age of DENV incidence via both protective and disease-enhancing interactions.

Seroprevalence of Zika in Brazil stratified by age and geographic distribution

Congenital Zika is a devastating consequence of maternal Zika virus infections. Estimates of age-dependent seroprevalence profiles are central to our understanding of the force of Zika virus infections. We set out to calculate the age-dependent seroprevalence of Zika virus infections in Brazil. We analyzed serum samples stratified by age and geographic location, collected from 2016 to 2019, from about 16,000 volunteers enrolled in a Phase 3 dengue vaccine trial led by the Institute Butantan in Brazil. Our results show that Zika seroprevalence has a remarkable age-dependent and geographical distribution, with an average age of the first infection varying from region to region, ranging from 4.97 (3.03–5.41) to 7.24 (6.98–7.90) years. The calculated basic reproduction number, , varied from region to region, ranging from 1.18 (1.04–1.41) to 2.33 (1.54–3.85). Such data are paramount to determine the optimal age to vaccinate against Zika, if and when such a vaccine becomes available.

The (Re-)Emergence and Spread of Viral Zoonotic Disease: A Perfect Storm of Human Ingenuity and Stupidity

Diseases that are transmitted from vertebrate animals to humans are referred to as zoonotic diseases. Although microbial agents such as bacteria and parasites are linked to zoonotic events, viruses account for a high percentage of zoonotic diseases that have emerged. Worryingly, the 21st century has seen a drastic increase in the emergence and re-emergence of viral zoonotic disease. Even though humans and animals have coexisted for millennia, anthropogenic factors have severely increased interactions between the two populations, thereby increasing the risk of disease spill-over. While drivers such as climate shifts, land exploitation and wildlife trade can directly affect the (re-)emergence of viral zoonotic disease, globalisation, geopolitics and social perceptions can directly facilitate the spread of these (re-)emerging diseases. This opinion paper discusses the "intelligent" nature of viruses and their exploitation of the anthropogenic factors driving the (re-)emergence and spread of viral zoonotic disease in a modernised and connected world.

Analyses of Early ZIKV Genomes Are Consistent with Viral Spread from Northeast Brazil to the Americas

The Americas, particularly Brazil, were greatly impacted by the widespread Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in 2015 and 2016. Efforts were made to implement genomic surveillance of ZIKV as part of the public health responses. The accuracy of spatiotemporal reconstructions of the epidemic spread relies on the unbiased sampling of the transmission process. In the early stages of the outbreak, we recruited patients exhibiting clinical symptoms of arbovirus-like infection from Salvador and Campo Formoso, Bahia, in Northeast Brazil. Between May 2015 and June 2016, we identified 21 cases of acute ZIKV infection and subsequently recovered 14 near full-length sequences using the amplicon tiling multiplex approach with nanopore sequencing. We performed a time-calibrated discrete phylogeographic analysis to trace the spread and migration history of the ZIKV. Our phylogenetic analysis supports a consistent relationship between ZIKV migration from Northeast to Southeast Brazil and its subsequent dissemination beyond Brazil. Additionally, our analysis provides insights into the migration of ZIKV from Brazil to Haiti and the role Brazil played in the spread of ZIKV to other countries, such as Singapore, the USA, and the Dominican Republic. The data generated by this study enhances our understanding of ZIKV dynamics and supports the existing knowledge, which can aid in future surveillance efforts against the virus.

The Incompetence of Mosquitoes-Can Zika Virus Be Adapted To Infect Culex tarsalis Cells?

The molecular evolutionary mechanisms underpinning virus-host interactions are increasingly recognized as key drivers of virus emergence, host specificity, and the likelihood that viruses can undergo a host shift that alters epidemiology and transmission biology. Zika virus (ZIKV) is mainly transmitted between humans by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. However, the 2015 to 2017 outbreak stimulated discussion regarding the role of Culex spp. mosquitoes in transmission. Reports of ZIKV-infected Culex mosquitoes, in nature and under laboratory conditions, resulted in public and scientific confusion. We previously found that Puerto Rican ZIKV does not infect colonized Culex quinquefasciatus, Culex pipiens, or Culex tarsalis, but some studies suggest they may be competent ZIKV vectors. Therefore, we attempted to adapt ZIKV to Cx. tarsalis by serially passaging virus on cocultured Ae. aegypti (Aag2) and Cx. tarsalis (CT) cells to identify viral determinants of species specificity. Increasing fractions of CT cells resulted in decreased overall virus titer and no enhancement of Culex cell or mosquito infection. Next-generation sequencing of cocultured virus passages revealed synonymous and nonsynonymous variants throughout the genome that arose as CT cell fractions increased. We generated nine recombinant ZIKVs containing combinations of the variants of interest. None of these viruses showed increased infection of Culex cells or mosquitoes, demonstrating that variants associated with passaging were not specific to increased Culex infection. These results reveal the challenge of a virus adapting to a new host, even when pushed to adapt artificially. Importantly, they also demonstrate that while ZIKV may occasionally infect Culex mosquitoes, Aedes mosquitoes likely drive transmission and human risk. IMPORTANCE ZIKV is mainly transmitted between humans by Aedes mosquitoes. In nature, ZIKV-infected Culex mosquitoes have been found, and ZIKV infrequently infects Culex mosquitoes under laboratory conditions. Yet, most studies show that Culex mosquitoes are not competent vectors for ZIKV. We attempted to adapt ZIKV to Culex cells to identify viral determinants of species specificity. We sequenced ZIKV after it was passaged on a mixture of Aedes and Culex cells and found that it acquired many variants. We generated recombinant viruses containing combinations of the variants of interest to determine if any of these changes enhance infection in Culex cells or mosquitoes. Recombinant viruses did not show increased infection in Culex cells or mosquitoes, but some variants increased infection in Aedes cells, suggesting adaptation to those cells instead. These results reveal that arbovirus species specificity is complex, and that virus adaptation to a new genus of mosquito vectors likely requires multiple genetic changes.

Our issue or their issue? Media coverage and framing of the Zika virus epidemic

How does the news media respond to health emergencies abroad? Between 2015 and 2018, Zika virus spread rapidly throughout Latin America before arriving in the continental United States. Despite the risks to adults and newborns, it is unclear how media coverage developed and framed the threat for its audience. In this paper, we argue that while the frequency of coverage was responsive to infections, its content failed to promote proactive health behaviour. To assess these claims, we analyse each of 442 articles dealing with Zika virus published by The New York Times from 2015-18. We find that the amount of coverage reflected infections but did not change once the disease emerged in the US. Furthermore, content analysis using Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count software reveals that coverage emphasised differences between communities (those affected and those at home) and that present and past time orientations dominated coverage as opposed to future time orientations.

Infectious disease in an era of global change

The twenty-first century has witnessed a wave of severe infectious disease outbreaks, not least the COVID-19 pandemic, which has had a devastating impact on lives and livelihoods around the globe. The 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbreak, the 2009 swine flu pandemic, the 2012 Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbreak, the 2013-2016 Ebola virus disease epidemic in West Africa and the 2015 Zika virus disease epidemic all resulted in substantial morbidity and mortality while spreading across borders to infect people in multiple countries. At the same time, the past few decades have ushered in an unprecedented era of technological, demographic and climatic change: airline flights have doubled since 2000, since 2007 more people live in urban areas than rural areas, population numbers continue to climb and climate change presents an escalating threat to society. In this Review, we consider the extent to which these recent global changes have increased the risk of infectious disease outbreaks, even as improved sanitation and access to health care have resulted in considerable progress worldwide.

Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research: The EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines

BACKGROUND

The importance of infectious disease epidemic forecasting and prediction research is underscored by decades of communicable disease outbreaks, including COVID-19. Unlike other fields of medical research, such as clinical trials and systematic reviews, no reporting guidelines exist for reporting epidemic forecasting and prediction research despite their utility. We therefore developed the EPIFORGE checklist, a guideline for standardized reporting of epidemic forecasting research.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We developed this checklist using a best-practice process for development of reporting guidelines, involving a Delphi process and broad consultation with an international panel of infectious disease modelers and model end users. The objectives of these guidelines are to improve the consistency, reproducibility, comparability, and quality of epidemic forecasting reporting. The guidelines are not designed to advise scientists on how to perform epidemic forecasting and prediction research, but rather to serve as a standard for reporting critical methodological details of such studies.

CONCLUSIONS

These guidelines have been submitted to the EQUATOR network, in addition to hosting by other dedicated webpages to facilitate feedback and journal endorsement.

Profound downregulation of neural transcription factor Npas4 and Nr4a family in fetal mice neurons infected with Zika virus

Zika virus (ZIKV) infection of neurons leads to neurological complications and congenital malformations of the brain of neonates. To date, ZIKV mechanism of infection and pathogenesis is not entirely understood and different studies on gene regulation of ZIKV-infected cells have identified a dysregulation of inflammatory and stem cell maintenance pathways. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are post-transcriptional regulators of cellular genes and they contribute to cell development in normal function and disease. Previous reports with integrative analyses of messenger RNAs (mRNAs) and miRNAs during ZIKV infection have not identified neurological pathway defects. We hypothesized that dysregulation of pathways involved in neurological functions will be identified by RNA profiling of ZIKV-infected fetal neurons. We therefore used microarrays to analyze gene expression levels following ZIKV infection of fetal murine neurons. We observed that the expression levels of transcription factors such as neural PAS domain protein 4 (Npas4) and of three members of the orphan nuclear receptor 4 (Nr4a) were severely decreased after viral infection. We confirmed that their downregulation was at both the mRNA level and at the protein level. The dysregulation of these transcription factors has been previously linked to aberrant neural functions and development. We next examined the miRNA expression profile in infected primary murine neurons by microarray and found that various miRNAs were dysregulated upon ZIKV infection. An integrative analysis of the differentially expressed miRNAs and mRNAs indicated that miR-7013-5p targets Nr4a3 gene. Using miRmimics, we corroborated that miR-7013-5p downregulates Nr4a3 mRNA and protein levels. Our data identify a profound dysregulation of neural transcription factors with an overexpression of miR-7013-5p that results in decreased Nr4a3 expression, likely a main contributor to ZIKV-induced neuronal dysfunction.

Zika virus (ZIKV) is an emerging virus transmitted horizontally between humans through mosquito bites, and sexual intercourse generally inducing a mild disease. ZIKV is also transmitted vertically from mother-to-child producing congenital ZIKV syndrome (CZVS) in neonates. CZVS leads to severe microcephaly associated with neurological, ocular, musculoskeletal, genitourinary disorders and other disabilities. Although numerous studies have been performed on ZIKV infection of brain cells, we are still far from understanding how ZIKV infection leads to dysregulation of host genes, virus-induced cytopathicity and consequent pathology. Micro (mi)RNAs are small noncoding RNAs encoded and processed by the host cell. They regulate gene expression at the post-transcriptional level in a process called RNA interference (RNAi). Here, we evaluated the relationship between ZIKV infection and the level of mRNAs and miRNAs expressed in the cell. ZIKV infection of mouse embryo neurons downregulated several neural immediate-early genes (IEG). Moreover, we revealed that ZIKV infection led to aberrant regulation of several miRNAs, and identified one whose cognate target was a neural IEG. Our work identifies novel genes and miRNAs that are modulated upon ZIKV infection of fetal murine neurons, therefore linking neuronal dysfunction to transcription and the RNA interference pathway.

New Insights on the Zika Virus Arrival in the Americas and Spatiotemporal Reconstruction of the Epidemic Dynamics in Brazil

Zika virus (ZIKV) became a worldwide public health emergency after its introduction in the Americas. Brazil was implicated as central in the ZIKV dispersion, however, a better understanding of the pathways the virus took to arrive in Brazil and the dispersion within the country is needed. An updated genome dataset was assembled with publicly available data. Bayesian phylogeography methods were applied to reconstruct the spatiotemporal history of ZIKV in the Americas and with more detail inside Brazil. Our analyses reconstructed the Brazilian state of Pernambuco as the likely point of introduction of ZIKV in Brazil, possibly during the 2013 Confederations Cup. Pernambuco played an important role in spreading the virus to other Brazilian states. Our results also underscore the long cryptic circulation of ZIKV in all analyzed locations in Brazil. Conclusions: This study brings new insights about the early moments of ZIKV in the Americas, especially regarding the Brazil-Haiti cluster at the base of the American clade and describing for the first time migration patterns within Brazil.

Dengue, chikungunya and Zika in GeoSentinel surveillance of international travellers: a literature review from 1995 to 2020

INTRODUCTION

GeoSentinel is a global surveillance network of travel medicine providers seeing ill-returned travellers. Much of our knowledge on health problems and infectious encountered by international travellers has evolved as a result of GeoSentinel surveillance, providing geographic and temporal trends in morbidity among travellers while contributing to improved pre-travel advice. We set out to synthesize epidemiological information, clinical manifestations and time trends for dengue, chikungunya and Zika in travellers as captured by GeoSentinel.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature search in PubMed on international travellers who presented with dengue, chikungunya or Zika virus infections to GeoSentinel sites around the world from 1995 until 2020.

RESULTS

Of 107 GeoSentinel publications, 42 articles were related to dengue, chikungunya and/or Zika. The final analyses and synthesis of and results presented here are based on the findings from 27 original articles covering the three arboviral diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

Dengue is the most frequent arboviral disease encountered in travellers presenting to GeoSentinel sites, with increasing trends over the past two decades. In Southeast Asia, annual proportionate morbidity increased from 50 dengue cases per 1000 ill returned travellers in non-epidemic years to an average of 159 cases per 1000 travellers during epidemic years. The highest number of travellers with chikungunya virus infections was reported during the chikungunya outbreak in the Americas and the Caribbean in the years 2013-16. Zika was first reported by GeoSentinel already in 2012, but notifications peaked in the years 2016-17 reflecting the public health emergency in the Americas at the time.

Spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of co-circulating dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses in Fortaleza, Brazil: 2011-2017

The mosquito-borne viruses dengue (DENV), Zika (ZIKV), and chikungunya (CHIKV), now co-endemic in the Americas, pose growing threats to health worldwide. However, it remains unclear whether there exist interactions between these viruses that could shape their epidemiology. This study advances knowledge by assessing the transmission dynamics of co-circulating DENV, ZIKV, and CHIKV in the city of Fortaleza, Brazil. Spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of DENV, ZIKV, and CHIKV were analyzed using georeferenced data on over 210,000 reported cases from 2011 to 2017 in Fortaleza, Brazil. Local spatial clustering tests and space-time scan statistics were used to compare transmission dynamics across all years. The transmission of co-circulating viruses in 2016 and 2017 was evaluated at fine spatial and temporal scales using a measure of spatiotemporal dependence, the τ-statistic. Results revealed differences in the diffusion of CHIKV compared to previous DENV epidemics and spatially distinct transmission of DENV/ZIKV and CHIKV during the period of their co-circulation. Significant spatial clustering of viruses of the same type was observed within 14-day time intervals at distances of up to 6.8 km (p<0.05). These results suggest that arbovirus risk is not uniformly distributed within cities during co-circulation. Findings may guide outbreak preparedness and response efforts by highlighting the clustered nature of transmission of co-circulating arboviruses at the neighborhood level. The potential for competitive interactions between the arboviruses should be further investigated.

ZikaPLAN: addressing the knowledge gaps and working towards a research preparedness network in the Americas

Zika Preparedness Latin American Network (ZikaPLAN) is a research consortium funded by the European Commission to address the research gaps in combating Zika and to establish a sustainable network with research capacity building in the Americas. Here we present a report on ZikaPLAN`s mid-term achievements since its initiation in October 2016 to June 2019, illustrating the research objectives of the 15 work packages ranging from virology, diagnostics, entomology and vector control, modelling to clinical cohort studies in pregnant women and neonates, as well as studies on the neurological complications of Zika infections in adolescents and adults. For example, the Neuroviruses Emerging in the Americas Study (NEAS) has set up more than 10 clinical sites in Colombia. Through the Butantan Phase 3 dengue vaccine trial, we have access to samples of 17,000 subjects in 14 different geographic locations in Brazil. To address the lack of access to clinical samples for diagnostic evaluation, ZikaPLAN set up a network of quality sites with access to well-characterized clinical specimens and capacity for independent evaluations. The International Committee for Congenital Anomaly Surveillance Tools was formed with global representation from regional networks conducting birth defects surveillance. We have collated a comprehensive inventory of resources and tools for birth defects surveillance, and developed an App for low resource regions facilitating the coding and description of all major externally visible congenital anomalies including congenital Zika syndrome. Research Capacity Network (REDe) is a shared and open resource centre where researchers and health workers can access tools, resources and support, enabling better and more research in the region. Addressing the gap in research capacity in LMICs is pivotal in ensuring broad-based systems to be prepared for the next outbreak. Our shared and open research space through REDe will be used to maximize the transfer of research into practice by summarizing the research output and by hosting the tools, resources, guidance and recommendations generated by these studies. Leveraging on the research from this consortium, we are working towards a research preparedness network.

Inactivation of yellow fever virus with amotosalen and ultraviolet A light pathogen-reduction technology

BACKGROUND

The reemergence of yellow fever virus (YFV) in Africa and Brazil, and massive vaccine campaigns triggered to contain the outbreaks, have raised concerns over blood transfusion safety and availability with increased risk of YFV transfusion-transmitted infections (TTIs) by native and vaccine-acquired YFV. Blood donor deferral for 2 to 4 weeks following live attenuated YFV vaccination, and deferral for travel to endemic/epidemic areas, may result in blood donor loss and impact platelet component (PC) stocks. This study investigated the efficacy of INTERCEPT Blood System pathogen reduction (PR) with use of amotosalen and ultraviolet A (UVA) light to inactivate high levels of YFV in PCs.

MATERIALS

Four units of apheresis platelets prepared in 35% plasma/65% platelet additive solution (PC-PAS) and 4 units of PC in 100% human plasma (PC-Plasma) were spiked with high infectious titers of YFV (YFV-17D vaccine strain). YFV-17D infectious titers were measured by plaque assay and expressed as plaque-forming units (PFU) before and after amotosalen/UVA treatment to determine log reduction.

RESULTS

The mean YFV-17D infectious titers in PC before inactivation were 5.5 ± 0.1 log PFU/mL in PC-PAS and 5.3 ± 0.1 log PFU/mL in PC-Plasma. No infectivity was detected immediately after amotosalen/UVA treatment.

CONCLUSION

The amotosalen/UVA PR system inactivated high titers of infectious YFV-17D in PC. This PR technology could reduce the risk of YFV TTI and help secure PC supplies in areas experiencing YFV outbreaks where massive vaccination campaigns are required.

Impression Cytology Is a Non-invasive and Effective Method for Ocular Cell Retrieval of Zika Infected Babies: Perspectives in OMIC Studies

IMPORTANCE

Non-invasive techniques for retrieving ocular surface cells from babies infected by zika virus (ZIKV) during the gestational period remain to be determined.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to describe an optimized impression cytology method for the isolation of viable cells from Zika infected babies with and without Congenital Zika Syndrome (CZS) in satisfactory amount and quality to enable easy adoption in the field and application in the context of genomic and molecular approaches.

DESIGN SETTINGS AND PARTICIPANTS

Ocular surface samples were obtained with a hydrophilic nitrocellulose membrane (through optimized impression cytology method) from twelve babies referred to the Pediatric Service of the Antonio Pedro Hospital, Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF), Niteroi, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. After an authorized written informed consent from the parents, samples were collected from both eyes of 12 babies (4 babies with maternal ZIKV exposure during gestation and presence of clinical signs which included ocular abnormalities and microcephaly; 4 babies with maternal ZIKV exposure during gestation but no clinical signs; and 4 unaffected control babies with negative PCR for Zika virus and without clinical signs). Cells were used for microscopy analyses and evaluated for their suitability for downstream molecular applications in transcriptomic and proteomic experiments.

RESULTS

Our optimized impression cytology protocol enabled the capture of a considerable number of viable cells. The microscopic features of the conjunctival epithelial cells were described by both direct analysis of the membrane-attached cells and analysis of cytospinned captured cells using several staining procedures. Epithelial basal, polyhedral and goblet cells were clearly identified in all groups. All cases of ZIKV infected babies showed potential morphological alterations (cell keratinization, pyknosis, karyolysis, anucleation, and vacuolization). Molecular approaches were also performed in parallel. Genomic DNA and RNA were successfully isolated from all samples to enable the establishment of transcriptomic and proteomic studies.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Our method proved to be a suitable, fast, and non-invasive tool to obtain ocular cell preparations from babies with and without Zika infection. The method yielded sufficient cells for detailed morphological and molecular analyses of samples. We discuss perspectives for the application of impression cytology in the context of ZIKV studies in basic and clinical research.

Laboratory exams of the National Health Survey: methodology of sampling, data collection and analysis

INTRODUCTION

This article aims at describing the National Health Survey (Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde- PNS) methodology of collecting laboratory exams data.

METHODOLOGY

A subsample of 25% of the census tracts was selected, according to the stratification of the PNS sample, with a probability inversely proportional to the difficulty of collection. The collection of blood and urine was done in the households by a laboratory agent, among residents selected for individual interview. Due to the difficulties found in the field work, the sample did not reach the minimum expected number in some strata, and a post-stratification procedure was proposed for the data analysis.

RESULTS

The collection of biospecimens was performed in 8,952 individuals. Laboratory tests were: glycated hemoglobin; total cholesterol; LDL cholesterol; HDL cholesterol; serology for dengue; red blood cell count (erythrogram) and white series count (leukogram); high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) for diagnosis of hemoglobinopathies; creatinine. Theexcretion of potassium, salt and sodium and creatinine was estimated in the urine. The database of laboratory exams was weighed and made publicly available on the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation's PNS website and can be accessed without prior authorization.

CONCLUSION

The total subsample of laboratory exams is of great value, since it allowed us to establish national reference parameters adequate to sociodemographic and geographic characteristics of the Brazilian population, providing relevant and complementary information for the analysis of the health situation of Brazil.

The use and reporting of airline passenger data for infectious disease modelling: a systematic review

BackgroundA variety of airline passenger data sources are used for modelling the international spread of infectious diseases. Questions exist regarding the suitability and validity of these sources.AimWe conducted a systematic review to identify the sources of airline passenger data used for these purposes and to assess validation of the data and reproducibility of the methodology.MethodsArticles matching our search criteria and describing a model of the international spread of human infectious disease, parameterised with airline passenger data, were identified. Information regarding type and source of airline passenger data used was collated and the studies' reproducibility assessed.ResultsWe identified 136 articles. The majority (n = 96) sourced data primarily used by the airline industry. Governmental data sources were used in 30 studies and data published by individual airports in four studies. Validation of passenger data was conducted in only seven studies. No study was found to be fully reproducible, although eight were partially reproducible.LimitationsBy limiting the articles to international spread, articles focussed on within-country transmission even if they used relevant data sources were excluded. Authors were not contacted to clarify their methods. Searches were limited to articles in PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus.ConclusionWe recommend greater efforts to assess validity and biases of airline passenger data used for modelling studies, particularly when model outputs are to inform national and international public health policies. We also recommend improving reporting standards and more detailed studies on biases in commercial and open-access data to assess their reproducibility.

Modelling an optimum vaccination strategy against ZIKA virus for outbreak use

We present a model to optimise a vaccination campaign aiming to prevent or to curb a Zika virus outbreak. We show that the optimum vaccination strategy to reduce the number of cases by a mass vaccination campaign should start when the Aedes mosquitoes' density reaches the threshold of 1.5 mosquitoes per humans, the moment the reproduction number crosses one. The maximum time it is advisable to wait for the introduction of a vaccination campaign is when the first ZIKV case is identified, although this would not be as effective to minimise the number of infections as when the mosquitoes' density crosses the critical threshold. This suboptimum strategy, however, would still curb the outbreak. In both cases, the catch up strategy should aim to vaccinate at least 25% of the target population during a concentrated effort of 1 month immediately after identifying the threshold. This is the time taken to accumulate the herd immunity threshold of 56.5%. These calculations were done based on theoretical assumptions that vaccine implementation would be feasible within a very short time frame.

Scientific collaboration in Zika: identification of the leading research groups and researchers via social network analysis

The association between Zika and microcephaly drew international attention to Brazil. The emergency situation demanded speed and collective effort by researchers worldwide, and Science was quick to investigate the disease and publish the results. Scientific knowledge was created and disseminated through collaboration in this process. Publications are still the best way of disseminating scientific knowledge. They allow to record progress in a field of studies and observe how scientists collaborate to produce advances as new knowledge and technologies are generated. An effective way to map such advances is to analyze scientists' Social Networks (relationship and collaboration networks), since collaboration is currently an intrinsic characteristic of modern science. Co-authorship of publications is thus an important indicator of scientific collaboration for understanding progress in various areas of Science. The current study aimed to use a generalizable method for mapping and analyzing the Scientific Social Network formed in the domain of Zika, demonstrating how scientists collaborated to produce the main research results, identifying the leading research groups on Zika and the most influential researchers. Social Network Analysis was applied to the co-authorship networks formed from 2015 to 2016. The study showed that a Zika researcher's influence is basically determined by three factors: (a) number of publications; (b) diversified partnerships; and (c) the links established with the research area's pioneers.

An Evolutionary Insight into Zika Virus Strains Isolated in the Latin American Region

Zika virus (ZIKV) is an emerging pathogen member of the Flaviviridae family. ZIKV has spread rapidly in the Latin American region, causing hundreds of thousands of cases of ZIKV disease, as well as microcephaly in congenital infections. Detailed studies on the pattern of evolution of ZIKV strains have been extremely important to our understanding of viral survival, fitness, and evasion of the host’s immune system. For these reasons, we performed a comprehensive phylogenetic analysis of ZIKV strains recently isolated in the Americas. The results of these studies revealed evidence of diversification of ZIKV strains circulating in the Latin American region into at least five different genetic clusters. This diversification was also reflected in the different trends in dinucleotide bias and codon usage variation. Amino acid substitutions were found in E and prM proteins of the ZIKV strains isolated in this region, revealing the presence of novel genetic variants circulating in Latin America.

A Note on the Risk of Infections Invading Unaffected Regions

We present two probabilistic models to estimate the risk of introducing infectious diseases into previously unaffected countries/regions by infective travellers. We analyse two distinct situations, one dealing with a directly transmitted infection (measles in Italy in 2017) and one dealing with a vector-borne infection (Zika virus in Rio de Janeiro, which may happen in the future). To calculate the risk in the first scenario, we used a simple, nonhomogeneous birth process. The second model proposed in this paper provides a way to calculate the probability that local mosquitoes become infected by the arrival of a single infective traveller during his/her infectiousness period. The result of the risk of measles invasion of Italy was of 93% and the result of the risk of Zika virus invasion of Rio de Janeiro was of 22%.

Zika in travellers 1947-2017: a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Travellers contributed substantially to the rapid spread of Zika virus (ZIKV). They act as sentinel and may unmask ongoing ZIKV transmission in countries where outbreaks have not yet been reported. Our objectives were to (i) describe the burden of ZIKV infections in international travellers over time; (ii) estimate the proportion of birth defects as a result of maternal ZIKV infection in travellers; (iii) track the extent of sexual transmission; (iv) summarize ZIKV infections in returning travellers as reported by the GeoSentinel network; and (v) identify countries without reports on local ZIKV transmission where travellers served as sentinel.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review from 1947 to April 2017 on travel-associated ZIKV infections. We also compared published reports on autochthonous ZIKV transmission in Asia with published reports on exportations from travellers in Asia.

RESULTS

Of 314 papers that fit the inclusion criteria, 61 were eligible for final analysis. There was an exponential increase in the number of reported ZIKV infected travellers from the years 2013 to 2016, which declined in 2017. Amongst pregnant women with ZIKV infection, (5%) resulted in a fetus or infant with ZIKV-associated birth defects. An estimated 1% of the total number of ZIKV cases reported in the USA and Europe were acquired through sexual transmission. Through the GeoSentinel network, five countries (Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Cameroon) were identified as sentinel markers where ZIKV was exported despite the absence of reported local transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

Mobility patterns and travel volumes can help to identify the most likely origin of importation, and also in predicting further propagation. Studies on pregnant returning travellers have contributed to a better understanding of the risk estimates of congenital Zika syndrome/microcephaly as a result of maternal ZIKV infection, and the relative contribution of sexual transmisison.

Zika vaccines and therapeutics: landscape analysis and challenges ahead

BACKGROUND

Various Zika virus (ZIKV) vaccine candidates are currently in development. Nevertheless, unique challenges in clinical development and regulatory pathways may hinder the licensure of high-quality, safe, and effective ZIKV vaccines.

DISCUSSION

Implementing phase 3 efficacy trials will be difficult given the challenges of the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of ZIKV transmission, the unpredictability of ZIKV epidemics, the broad spectrum of clinical manifestations making a single definite endpoint difficult, a lack of sensitive and specific diagnostic assays, and the need for inclusion of vulnerable target populations. In addition to a vaccine, drugs for primary prophylaxis, post-exposure prophylaxis, or treatment should also be developed to prevent or mitigate the severity of congenital Zika syndrome.

CONCLUSION

Establishing the feasibility of immune correlates and/or surrogates are a priority. Given the challenges in conducting phase 3 trials at a time of waning incidence, human challenge trials should be considered to evaluate efficacy. Continued financial support and engagement of industry partners will be essential to the successful development, licensure, and accessibility of Zika vaccines or therapeutics.

Wolbachia wStri Blocks Zika Virus Growth at Two Independent Stages of Viral Replication

Mosquito-transmitted viruses are spread globally and present a great risk to human health. Among the many approaches investigated to limit the diseases caused by these viruses are attempts to make mosquitos resistant to virus infection. Coinfection of mosquitos with the bacterium Wolbachia pipientis from supergroup A is a recent strategy employed to reduce the capacity for major vectors in the Aedes mosquito genus to transmit viruses, including dengue virus (DENV), Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), and Zika virus (ZIKV). Recently, a supergroup B Wolbachia wStri, isolated from Laodelphax striatellus, was shown to inhibit multiple lineages of ZIKV in Aedes albopictus cells. Here, we show that wStri blocks the growth of positive-sense RNA viruses DENV, CHIKV, ZIKV, and yellow fever virus by greater than 99.9%. wStri presence did not affect the growth of the negative-sense RNA viruses LaCrosse virus or vesicular stomatitis virus. Investigation of the stages of the ZIKV life cycle inhibited by wStri identified two distinct blocks in viral replication. We found a reduction of ZIKV entry into wStri-infected cells. This was partially rescued by the addition of a cholesterol-lipid supplement. Independent of entry, transfected viral genome was unable to replicate in Wolbachia-infected cells. RNA transfection and metabolic labeling studies suggested that this replication defect is at the level of RNA translation, where we saw a 66% reduction in mosquito protein synthesis in wStri-infected cells. This study’s findings increase the potential for application of wStri to block additional arboviruses and also identify specific blocks in viral infection caused by Wolbachia coinfection.

Dengue, Zika, and yellow fever viruses are mosquito-transmitted diseases that have spread throughout the world, causing millions of infections and thousands of deaths each year. Existing programs that seek to contain these diseases through elimination of the mosquito population have so far failed, making it crucial to explore new ways of limiting the spread of these viruses. Here, we show that introduction of an insect symbiont Wolbachia wStri, into mosquito cells is highly effective at reducing yellow fever virus, dengue virus, Zika virus, and Chikungunya virus production. Reduction of virus replication was attributable to decreases in entry and a strong block of virus gene expression at the translational level. These findings expand the potential use of Wolbachia wStri to block viruses and identify two separate steps for limiting virus replication in mosquitos that could be targeted via microbes or other means as an antiviral strategy.

Adverse outcomes of pregnancy-associated Zika virus infection

The spread of Zika virus to the Americas was accompanied by surge in the number of infants with CNS abnormalities leading to a declaration of a health emergency by the WHO. This was accompanied by significant responses from governmental health agencies in the United States and Europe that resulted in significant new information described in the natural history of this perinatal infection in a very short period of time. Although much has been learned about Zika virus infection during pregnancy, limitations of current diagnostics and the challenges for accurate serologic diagnosis of acute Zika virus infection has restricted our understanding of the natural history of this perinatal infection to infants born to women with clinical disease during pregnancy and to Zika exposed infants with obvious clinical stigmata of disease. Thus, the spectrum of disease in infants exposed to Zika virus during pregnancy remains to be defined. In contrast, observations in informative animal models of Zika virus infections have provided rational pathways for vaccine development and existing antiviral drug development programs for other flaviviruses have resulted in accelerated development for potential antiviral therapies. This brief review will highlight some of the current concepts of the natural history of Zika virus during pregnancy.

Zika virus epidemiology: from Uganda to world pandemic, an update

Zika virus (ZIKV) infection is an emergent worldwide public health problem. Historically, 84 countries have reported vector-borne ZIKV transmission, 61 of which report on-going transmission. It is a Flavivirus transmitted through arthropods belonging to the Aedes genus. Since 2015, ZIKV infections have increased dramatically; with 1.3 million people infected during 2015 in Brazil alone. This paper's objective is to highlight the conjectural epidemiological points of the virus' dissemination. The digital archives Pubmed, MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane were searched for papers that assessed aspects of ZIKV transmission and epidemiology. The first isolation occurred in Uganda in 1947. Since then, important outbreaks were documented globally. Consequently, an emergent public health problem arose from a rapidly increasing incidence and its association with the development of neurological diseases such as microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome. Key factors in the successful containment of outbreaks include surveillance of mosquitos in the neighbourhood, an early mosquito control treatment, an assertive information campaign, and the involvement of the local population and healthcare workers. As such, while ZIKV seems to be spreading globally in a similar manner to other arboviruses, such as Dengue and Chikungunya viruses, it can also be rapidly contained due to the pre-existing availability of necessary resources and regulatory tools as control measures. This review aims to provide a description of those characteristics of ZIKV infection that may be useful in the construction of effective outbreak control strategies.

Zika clinical updates: implications for pediatrics

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Zika virus (ZIKV), a mosquito-borne flavivirus, has gained recognition over the past few years as an important new cause of congenital infection. As a result, it is critical that pediatricians understand its epidemiology, clinical presentation, clinical sequelae, and management.

RECENT FINDINGS

The recent ZIKV epidemiology, clinical presentation of acute infection in children and complications, perinatal infection, and congenital infection will be summarized in this ZIKV review. This will be followed by a brief summary on ZIKV diagnosis, management, treatment, and prevention.

SUMMARY

The field of clinical research in ZIKV has rapidly evolved over recent months. It is critical that pediatricians continue to stay up-to-date with the continuously evolving understanding of the clinical aspects of ZIKV to ensure optimal identification and management of affected infants and children. Given the recent changes in Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines to limit screening of asymptomatic pregnant women in the United States with possible ZIKV exposure, comprehensive ZIKV clinical knowledge becomes even more crucial.

Novel tools for the surveillance and control of dengue: findings by the DengueTools research consortium

BACKGROUND

Dengue fever persists as a major global disease burden, and may increase as a consequence of climate change. Along with other measures, research actions to improve diagnosis, surveillance, prevention, and predictive models are highly relevant. The European Commission funded the DengueTools consortium to lead a major initiative in these areas, and this review synthesises the outputs and findings of this work conducted from 2011 to 2016. Research areas: DengueTools organised its work into three research areas, namely [1] Early warning and surveillance systems; [2] Strategies to prevent dengue in children; and [3] Predictive models for the global spread of dengue. Research area 1 focused on case-studies undertaken in Sri Lanka, including developing laboratory-based sentinel surveillance, evaluating economic impact, identifying drivers of transmission intensity, evaluating outbreak prediction capacity and developing diagnostic capacity. Research area 2 addressed preventing dengue transmission in school children, with case-studies undertaken in Thailand. Insecticide-treated school uniforms represented an intriguing potential approach, with some encouraging results, but which were overshadowed by a lack of persistence of insecticide on the uniforms with repeated washing. Research area 3 evaluated potential global spread of dengue, particularly into dengue-naïve areas such as Europe. The role of international travel, changing boundaries of vectors, developing models of vectorial capacity under different climate change scenarios and strategies for vector control in outbreaks was all evaluated.

CONCLUDING REMARKS

DengueTools was able to make significant advances in methods for understanding and controlling dengue transmission in a range of settings. These will have implications for public health agendas to counteract dengue, including vaccination programmes.

OUTLOOK

Towards the end of the DengueTools project, Zika virus emerged as an unexpected epidemic in the central and southern America. Given the similarities between the dengue and Zika viruses, with vectors in common, some of the DengueTools thinking translated readily into the Zika situation.

Detection of Zika Virus in April 2013 Patient Samples, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

We tested 210 dengue virus‒negative samples collected from febrile patients during a dengue virus type 4 outbreak in Rio de Janeiro in April 2013 and found 3 samples positive for Zika virus. Our findings support previously published entomological data suggesting Zika virus was introduced into Brazil during October 2012–May 2013.

ZikaPLAN: Zika Preparedness Latin American Network

The ongoing Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in Latin America, the Caribbean, and the Pacific Islands has underlined the need for a coordinated research network across the whole region that can respond rapidly to address the current knowledge gaps in Zika and enhance research preparedness beyond Zika. The European Union under its Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme awarded three research consortia to respond to this need. Here we present the ZikaPLAN (Zika Preparedness Latin American Network) consortium. ZikaPLAN combines the strengths of 25 partners in Latin America, North America, Africa, Asia, and various centers in Europe. We will conduct clinical studies to estimate the risk and further define the full spectrum and risk factors of congenital Zika virus syndrome (including neurodevelopmental milestones in the first 3 years of life), delineate neurological complications associated with ZIKV due to direct neuroinvasion and immune-mediated responses in older children and adults, and strengthen surveillance for birth defects and Guillain-Barré Syndrome. Laboratory-based research to unravel neurotropism and investigate the role of sexual transmission, determinants of severe disease, and viral fitness will underpin the clinical studies. Social messaging and engagement with affected communities, as well as development of wearable repellent technologies against Aedes mosquitoes will enhance the impact. Burden of disease studies, data-driven vector control, and vaccine modeling as well as risk assessments on geographic spread of ZIKV will form the foundation for evidence-informed policies. While addressing the research gaps around ZIKV, we will engage in capacity building in laboratory and clinical research, collaborate with existing and new networks to share knowledge, and work with international organizations to tackle regulatory and other bottlenecks and refine research priorities. In this way, we can leverage the ZIKV response toward building a long-term emerging infectious diseases response capacity in the region to address future challenges.

Infection of a French Population of Aedes albopictus and of Aedes aegypti (Paea Strain) with Zika Virus Reveals Low Transmission Rates to These Vectors' Saliva

Disease caused by the Zika virus (ZIKV) is a public health emergency of international concern. Recent epidemics have emerged in different regions of the world and attest to the ability of the virus to spread wherever its vector, Aedes species mosquitoes, can be found. We have compared the transmission of ZIKV by Ae. aegypti (PAEA strain originating from Tahiti) and by a French population of Ae. albopictus to better assess their competence and the potential risk of the emergence of ZIKV in Europe. We assessed the transmission of ZIKV by Ae. albopictus in temperatures similar to those in Southern France during the summer. Our study shows that the extrinsic incubation period of Ae. aegypti for transmission was shorter than that of Ae. albopictus. Both vectors were able to transmit ZIKV from 10 to 14 days post-infection. Ae. aegypti, however, had a longer transmission period than the French population of Ae. albopictus. Although the salivary glands of both vectors are highly infected, transmission rates of ZIKV to saliva remain relatively low. These observations may suggest that the risk of emergence of ZIKV in Europe could be low.