Updating the epidemiological transition model

Sex-based tuberculosis mortality in Newfoundland, 1900-1949: Implications for populations in transition

OBJECTIVE

During the second epidemiological transition, tuberculosis (TB) is one disease that declined substantially enough to reduce all-cause mortality. Sex-based differences in TB mortality may reveal an important dimension of population health transitions between the urbanizing and rural regions of Newfoundland.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

For the island of Newfoundland, yearly age-standardized sex-based TB mortality rates were calculated using individual death records from 1900 to 1949 (n = 30 393). Multiple linear regression models predict the relative rates (RR) of sex-based mortality and the absolute difference between males and females while controlling for time and region (the urbanizing Avalon Peninsula or rural Newfoundland). Multiple linear regression models also predict the median age at death from TB while controlling for time, region, and sex to assess if TB was shifting to an older adult disease compared to those typically afflicted in ages 20-44.

RESULTS

Female TB mortality was relatively and absolutely higher than males; additionally, RR and absolute differences between male and female mortality were significantly lower in rural Newfoundland than the Avalon Peninsula. Median age at death for males was significantly higher than females, and differences in median age at death increased over time.

DISCUSSION

The historically high prevalence of TB throughout Newfoundland, including domestic, social, and public health responsibilities of women, likely contributed to increased exposure and transmission, leading to higher observed mortality. Sex-based TB outcomes should be considered in the discussion of the progression of the epidemiological transition as dynamic inequalities that do not necessarily fit contemporary generalizations of sex-based TB epidemiology.

Secrets and lies of host-microbial interactions: MHC restriction and trans-regulation of T cell trafficking conceal the role of microbial agents on the edge between health and multifactorial/complex diseases

Here we critically discuss data supporting the view that microbial agents (pathogens, pathobionts or commensals alike) play a relevant role in the pathogenesis of multifactorial diseases, but their role is concealed by the rules presiding over T cell antigen recognition and trafficking. These rules make it difficult to associate univocally infectious agents to diseases' pathogenesis using the paradigm developed for canonical infectious diseases. (Cross-)recognition of a variable repertoire of epitopes leads to the possibility that distinct infectious agents can determine the same disease(s). There can be the need for sequential infection/colonization by two or more microorganisms to develop a given disease. Altered spreading of infectious agents can determine an unwanted activation of T cells towards a pro-inflammatory and trafficking phenotype, due to differences in the local microenvironment. Finally, trans-regulation of T cell trafficking allows infectious agents unrelated to the specificity of T cell to modify their homing to target organs, thereby driving flares of disease. The relevant role of microbial agents in largely prevalent diseases provides a conceptual basis for the evaluation of more specific therapeutic approaches, targeted to prevent (vaccine) or cure (antibiotics and/or Biologic Response Modifiers) multifactorial diseases.

The economics of aging with infectious and chronic diseases

We develop an economic model of aging in which the susceptibility and severity of infectious diseases depend on the accumulated health deficits (immunosenescence) and the life history of infections affects the accumulation of chronic health deficits (inflammaging). Individuals invest in their health to slow down health deficit accumulation and take measures to protect themselves from infectious diseases. We calibrate the model for an average American and explore how health expenditure, life expectancy, and the value of life depend on individual characteristics, medical technology, and the disease environment. We then use counterfactual computational experiments of the U.S. epidemiological transition 1860-2010 to show that the decline of infectious diseases caused a substantial decline of chronic diseases and contributed more to increasing life expectancy than advances in the treatment of chronic diseases.

[Oto-rhino-laryngological and cervico-maxillofacial pathologies among hospitalized older patients: epidemiological, diagnostical and therapeutical aspects in Lomé, Togo]

Introduction

In developing countries, 10% of the population is over 60 years old and this proportion is increasing rapidly. The general objective of this study was to describe the profile and management of the elderly subject aged 60 and over, hospitalized in the ENT (Ear, Nose and Throat) and Head/Neck surgery department of the Sylvanus Olympio University Hospital in Lomé, from 2012 to 2021.

Method

Retrospective descriptive study. After reviewing the files, selection of patients aged 60 and over, regardless of sex, and hospitalized for an ENT pathology from January 2012 to December 2021. Not included in our study were files of elderly subjects hospitalized but whose age was imprecise, or empty or very incomplete files.

Results

A total of 296 cases were included, representing 6.7% of the department's activities. The mean age of the patients was 72 ± 7.3 years with extremes of 60 and 95 years. The age group 6069 years represented 59.5%. The sex ratio M/F was 0.92. Infectious/inflammatory lesions were found in 138 patients (46.6%) including 38.9% of acute cellulitis of dental origin, and tumors were found in 135 patients (45.6%). Tumors were malignant in 59 patients (43.7%) and benign in 76 patients (56.3%). Thyroid was the site of 46 (60.5%) benign lesions and larynx of 29 (49.2%) malignant lesions. Poor oral hygiene, use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, diabetes and the combination of smoking and alcohol were the factors favoring the occurrence of acute cellulitis of dental origin in 89.6%, 80.9%, 20.0% and 2.6% of cases respectively (p<0.001). The combination of smoking and alcohol was a factor favoring the occurrence of malignancy in 39% (p<0.001). Surgical treatment was performed in 234 patients (79.1%). With a case lethality rate of 21%, acute cellulitis of dental origin was the leading cause of death (p<0.001).

Conclusion

The most frequent pathologies of the ENT sphere in the elderly in our tropical context were infectious and tumoral, largely dominated by acute cellulitis of dental origin, thyroid adenoma and squamous cell carcinoma of the larynx. Despite the tendency to balance infectious and tumoral pathologies, the proportion of acute cellulitis of dental origin remains twice as high as that of malignant tumors. It contrasts with data from other sub-Saharan series where tumoral pathology remains predominant in the elderly. It is important to provide dental care assistance to the elderly and to advocate for the development of geriatrics and access to universal health coverage for the elderly in Togo.

Prioritizing non-communicable diseases in the post-pandemic era based on a comprehensive analysis of the GBD 2019 from 1990 to 2019

This study aimed to assess the burden of communicable diseases (CDs) and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2019, and propose global strategies to transform the public health policy. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019, we analyzed CDs and NCDs across various factors such as sex, age, year, and location, and evaluate the temporal trends of these diseases with joinpoint analysis. We also examined the differences between regions based on their socio-demographic index (SDI). In 2019, there were 7,862,907 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7,183,475 to 8,654,104) deaths from CDs and 42,034,124 (40,081,323 to 43,942,475) deaths from NCDs recorded worldwide. The low SDI region had markedly high age-standardized death and DALY rates of CDs. Although the age-standardized incidence rate of CDs has decreased in about half of the regions since 1990, NCDs have been on the rise in most regions. Over the past 30 years, the global burden of CDs has decreased significantly, while the burden of NCDs has aggrandized to an extent. In the post-pandemic era, effective interventions and cooperation among countries should be promoted to allocate medical resources more reasonably and improve healthcare for NCD patients.

Physiological aging in India: The role of the epidemiological transition

We construct a cohort-based frailty index from age-related health deficits to investigate physiological aging in India over the period 1990-2019. During this period, the Indian states underwent at different speeds the epidemiological transition and experienced unprecedented economic growth. We show that the rate of physiological aging remained remarkably stable to the changing environment. Age-related health deficits increased by about 3 percent per year of age with little variation across states, ages, cohorts, and over time. We find that, with advancing epidemiological transition, health deficits for given age declined at the individual level (within states and within cohorts). Across cohorts born between 1900 and 1995, we show that, for given age, health deficits are higher for later-born cohorts until birth years around 1940 and remained trendless afterwards. We propose a selection-based theory of aging during the epidemiological transition that explains these facts.

Cardiovascular Disease Among Persons Living With HIV: New Insights Into Pathogenesis and Clinical Manifestations in a Global Context

Widespread use of contemporary antiretroviral therapy globally has transformed HIV disease into a chronic illness associated with excess risk for disorders of the heart and circulatory system. Current clinical care and research has focused on improving HIV-related cardiovascular disease outcomes, survival, and quality of life. In high-income countries, emphasis on prevention of atherosclerotic coronary artery disease over the past decade, including aggressive management of traditional risk factors and earlier initiation of antiretroviral therapy, has reduced risk for myocardial infarction among persons living with human immunodeficiency virus-1 infection. Still, across the globe, persons living with human immunodeficiency virus-1 infection on effective antiretroviral therapy treatment remain at increased risk for ischemic outcomes such as myocardial infarction and stroke relative to the persons without HIV. Unique features of HIV-related cardiovascular disease, in part, include the pathogenesis of coronary disease characterized by remodeling ectasia and unusual plaque morphology, the relative high proportion of type 2 myocardial infarction events, abnormalities of the aorta such as aneurysms and diffuse aortic inflammation, and HIV cerebrovasculopathy as a contributor to stroke risk. Literature over the past decade has also reflected a shift in the profile and prevalence of HIV-associated heart failure, with a reduced but persistent risk of heart failure with reduced ejection fraction and a growing risk of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging and autopsy data have emphasized the central importance of intramyocardial fibrosis for the pathogenesis of both heart failure with preserved ejection fraction and the increase in risk of sudden cardiac death. Still, more research is needed to better characterize the underlying mechanisms and clinical phenotype of HIV-associated myocardial disease in the current era. Across the different cardiovascular disease manifestations, a common pathogenic feature is that HIV-associated inflammation working through different mechanisms may amplify underlying pathology because of traditional risk and other host factors. The prevalence and phenotype of individual cardiovascular disease manifestations is ultimately influenced by the degree of injury from HIV disease combined with the profile of underlying cardiometabolic factors, both of which may differ substantially by region globally.

Utilisation of research in clinical nursing and midwifery practice in Ghana: protocol for a mixed-method study. (Preprint)

BACKGROUND

The International Council of Nurses' 2021 code of ethics mandates nurses to provide evidence-informed care to patients. Globally, using research evidence has led to improvement in nursing and midwifery practice, according to the World Health Organization. A study in Ghana found that 25.3% (n=40) of nurses and midwives use research in clinical care. Research utilization (RU) increases therapeutic effectiveness, improves health outcomes, and enhances the personal and professional development of clinicians. However, it is uncertain the extent to which nurses and midwives are prepared, skilled, and supported to utilize research in clinical care in Ghana.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to develop a conceptual framework that can facilitate RU among clinical nurses and midwives in Ghanaian health facilities.

METHODS

This will be a cross-sectional study with a concurrent mixed methods approach. It will be conducted in 6 hospitals and 4 nursing educational institutions in Kumasi, Ghana. The study has 4 objectives which will be executed in 3 phases. Phase 1 follows a quantitative approach to describe the knowledge, attitudes, and practices of clinical nurses and midwives on the use of research in their practice. Using a web-based survey, 400 nurses and midwives working in 6 health facilities will be recruited. Data analysis will be conducted using SPSS, with statistical significance set at .05. Qualitative methodology, using focus group discussions with clinical nurses and midwives, will be conducted to identify the factors influencing their RU. In phase 2, focus group discussions will be used to examine and describe how nurse educators in 4 nursing and midwifery educational institutions prepare nurses and midwives for RU during their education. Views of nurse managers on the RU in Ghanaian health care facilities will be explored in the second section of this phase through one-on-one interviews. Inductive thematic analysis will be used to analyze the qualitative data, and Lincoln and Guba's principles of trustworthiness will be applied. In phase 3, the stages of model development proposed by Chinn and Kramer; and Walker and Avant will be used to triangulate findings from all objectives and formulate a conceptual framework.

RESULTS

Data collection started in December 2022. Publication of the results will begin in April 2023.

CONCLUSIONS

RU in clinical practice has become an acceptable practice in nursing and midwifery. It is critical that nursing and midwifery professionals in sub-Saharan Africa shift their practice to embrace the global movement. This proposed conceptual framework will empower nurses and midwives to improve their practice of RU.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/45067.

Biocultural perspectives of infectious diseases and demographic evolution: Tuberculosis and its comorbidities through history

Anthropologists recognize the importance of conceptualizing health in the context of the mutually evolving nature of biology and culture through the biocultural approach, but biocultural anthropological perspectives of infectious diseases and their impacts on humans (and vice versa) through time are relatively underrepresented. Tuberculosis (TB) has been a constant companion of humans for thousands of years and has heavily influenced population health in almost every phase of cultural and demographic evolution. TB in human populations has been dramatically influenced by behavior, demographic and epidemiological shifts, and other comorbidities through history. This paper critically discusses TB and some of its major comorbidities through history within a biocultural framework to show how transitions in human demography and culture affected the disease-scape of TB. In doing so, I address the potential synthesis of biocultural and epidemiological transition theory to better comprehend the mutual evolution of infectious diseases and humans.

The role of age inequalities in cause of death in the slow pace of epidemiological transition in India

In developed countries, low disparity in lifespan contributed by the reduction in the burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is the key to advances in epidemiological transition. Contrarily, India passing through a phase of the dual burden of CDs and NCDs shows a heavy burden of NCDs responsible for the high disparity in lifespan. The Gini coefficient was decomposed for examining the contribution of 22 causes of death and their repercussions for inequality in age at death for 30 years between 1990-1994 and 2015-2019, using Global Burden of Disease data. The outcomes of the study reveal that India's epidemiological transition has been just modest on account of high inequality in mortality by NCDs emplaced in the middle through old age despite a consistent mortality decline at infant through old age for communicable diseases (CDs). The structural changes in causes of death structure is shaped by CDs rather than NCDs, but overall bolstered by the adult mortality decline, especially in women. However, the process is restrained by the small contribution of the middle age group and a benign contribution of old mortality decline owing to the low threshold age. India needs to target health interventions in seeking significant mortality decline in the middle age group of 50-69 years that is warranted for epidemiological transition apace as evident in the developed nations.

Social Factors as Major Determinants of Rural Development Variation for Predicting Epidemic Vulnerability: A Lesson for the Future

There have been changes in social attitudes in recent years. These changes have been a consequence of a new societal view of the common good, which manifests itself in social responsibility for a clean and healthy environment. The outbreak and spread of the COVID-19 epidemic has highlighted the socio-spatial variation across regions and countries. The epidemic necessitated restrictive measures by state authorities. In the initial period in many countries, the actions of the authorities were identical throughout the country. This was mainly due to a lack of information about the differentiation of areas in relation to the epidemic risk. The aim of the research was to present a model for classifying rural areas taking into account vulnerability to epidemic threats. The model takes into account demographic, social, economic and spatial-environmental development factors. A total of 33 indicators based on public statistics that can be used to determine the area's vulnerability to epidemic threats were identified. The study showed that for Poland, 11 indicators are statistically significant to the developed classification model. The study found that social factors were vital in determining an area's vulnerability to epidemic threats. We include factors such as average number of persons per one apartment, village centers (number), events (number), number of people per facility (cultural center, community center, club, community hall), residents of nursing homes per 1000 inhabitants, and the number of children in pre-school education establishments per 1000 children aged 3-5 years. The research area was rural areas in Poland. The results of the classification and the methods used should be made available as a resource for crisis management. This will enable a better response to threats from other epidemics in the future, and will influence the remodeling of the environment and social behavior to reduce risks at this risk, which has a significant impact on sustainable development in rural areas.

Nutrition and Health in Human Evolution–Past to Present

Anyone who wants to understand the biological nature of humans and their special characteristics must look far back into evolutionary history. Today’s way of life is drastically different from that of our ancestors. For almost 99% of human history, gathering and hunting have been the basis of nutrition. It was not until about 12,000 years ago that humans began domesticating plants and animals. Bioarchaeologically and biochemically, this can be traced back to our earliest roots. Modern living conditions and the quality of human life are better today than ever before. However, neither physically nor psychosocially have we made this adjustment and we are paying a high health price for it. The studies presented allow us to reconstruct food supply, lifestyles, and dietary habits: from the earliest primates, through hunter-gatherers of the Paleolithic, farming communities since the beginning of the Anthropocene, to the Industrial Age and the present. The comprehensive data pool allows extraction of all findings of medical relevance. Our recent lifestyle and diet are essentially determined by our culture rather than by our millions of years of ancestry. Culture is permanently in a dominant position compared to natural evolution. Thereby culture does not form a contrast to nature but represents its result. There is no doubt that we are biologically adapted to culture, but it is questionable how much culture humans can cope with.

Health as temporally extended: theoretical foundations and implications

This paper seeks to develop a theory of health that aligns with the shift in contemporary medical practice and research toward a temporally extended epidemiological view of health. The paper describes how such a theory is at the core of life course based approaches to health, and finds theoretical grounding in recent work in the philosophy of biology promulgating a process theory of life.

Reviewing the Past, Present, and Future Risks of Pathogens in Ghana and What This Means for Rethinking Infectious Disease Surveillance for Sub-Saharan Africa

The current epidemiological transition makes us wonder how the parallel of infectious diseases (IDs) might be at the end of each passing year. Yet, the surveillance of these IDs continues to focus on high-profile diseases of public health importance without keeping track of the broad spectrum of the IDs we face. Here, we presented the prevalence of the broad spectrum of IDs in Ghana. Data from the annual reports on Gold Coast now Ghana, Global Infectious Diseases and Epidemiology Network (GIDEON), and the District Health Information Management System II (DHIMS2) databases were examined for records of ID prevalence in Ghana. Using the IDs from these databases, the paper assessed the epidemiological transition, pathogen-host interactions, spatiotemporal distribution, transmission routes, and their potential areas of impact in Ghana. The topmost ID recorded in health facilities in Ghana transitioned from yaws in the 1890s to malaria in the 1950s through 2020. We then presented the hosts of a pathogen and the pathogens of a host, the administrative districts where a pathogen was found, and the pathogens found in each district of Ghana. The highest modes of transmission routes were through direct contact for bacteria and airborne or droplet-borne for viral pathogens. From GIDEON, 226 IDs were identified as endemic or potentially endemic in Ghana, with 42% cited in peer-reviewed articles from 2000 to 2020. From the extent of risk of endemic or potentially endemic IDs, Ghana faces a high risk of ID burden that we should be mindful of their changing patterns and should keep track of the state of each of them.

On the Necessity of a Geriatric Oral Health Care Transition Model: Towards an Inclusive and Resource-Oriented Transition Process

People in need of care also require support within the framework of structured dental care in their different life situations. Nowadays, deteriorations in oral health tend to be noticed by chance, usually when complaints or pain are present. Information on dental care is also lost when life situations change. An older person may rely on family members having oral health skills. This competence is often not available, and a lot of oral health is lost. When someone, e.g., a dentist, physician, caregiver, or family member notices a dental care gap, a structured transition to ensure oral health should be established. The dental gap can be detected by, e.g., the occurrence of bad breath in a conversation with the relatives, as well as in the absence of previously regular sessions with the dental hygienist. The aim of the article is to present a model for a structured geriatric oral health care transition. Due to non-existing literature on this topic, a literature review was not possible. Therefore, a geriatric oral health care transition model (GOHCT) on the basis of the experiences and opinions of an expert panel was developed. The GOHCT model on the one hand creates the political, economic, and legal conditions for a transition process as a basis in a population-relevant approach within the framework of a transition arena with the representatives of various organizations. On the other hand, the tasks in the patient-centered approach of the transition stakeholders, e.g., patient, dentist, caregivers and relatives, and the transition manager in the transition process and the subsequent quality assurance are shown.

When a Ciliate Meets a Flagellate: A Rare Case of Colpoda spp. and Colpodella spp. Isolated from the Urine of a Human Patient. Case Report and Brief Review of Literature

Simple Summary

In the era of new emerging diseases, particularly seen in patients with impaired immunity, it is of outmost importance to recognize unusual etiologic agents and to provide solutions regarding their treatment and prophylaxis. Our paper presents the first recorded evidence of the parasites Colpoda spp. and Colpodella spp. isolated together from the urine of a human patient. Although the patient did not experience any urinary symptoms and we discovered the parasites purely incidental, their disappearance was noticed after a combined therapy with two antibiotic drugs. In order to better understand the involvement of these two parasites in human pathology, we performed a brief review of the existing medical literature. Isolation of these parasites was recorded in different areas of the globe; however, we encountered a discrepancy in the diagnostic techniques used to identify these parasites. In medical parasitology molecular techniques provide the most accurate diagnostic but optical microscopy diagnosis, based on morphologic description of the parasites is also a useful, accessible and affordable diagnostic tool and it should not be neglected in cases involving rare parasites, where molecular diagnosis is not wildly available.

Abstract

An often-overlooked side of the population aging process and the steady rise of non-communicable diseases reflects the emergence of novel infectious pathogens on the background of an altered host immune response. The aim of this article was to present the first record of a ciliate and flagellate protozoa recovered from the urine of an elderly patient and to review the existing medical literature involving these parasites. A 70-year-old female patient was admitted for breathing difficulties on the basis of an acute exacerbation of COPD (Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) with respiratory insufficiency. The patient reported a long history of multiple comorbidities including COPD Gold II, chronic respiratory insufficiency, chronic heart failure NYHA III (New York Heart Association Functional Classification), type 2 diabetes and morbid obesity. During routine examinations, we ascertained the presence of two unusual protozoa, a ciliate and a flagellate, in the patient’s urine samples, identified on morphological criteria to be most likely Colpoda spp. and Colpodella spp., with similarities to C. steinii and C. gonderi. The presence of these parasites was not associated with any clinical signs of urinary disease. Following a combined treatment with ceftriaxone and metronidazole, we observed the disappearance of these pathogens upon discharge from the primary care clinic. This study highlights the importance of including unusual pathogens in the differential diagnosis of cases which involve immunosuppression.

The 1918 influenza pandemic did not accelerate tuberculosis mortality decline in early-20th century Newfoundland: Investigating historical and social explanations

OBJECTIVES

The selective mortality hypothesis of tuberculosis after the 1918 influenza pandemic, laid out by Noymer and colleagues, suggests that acute exposure or pre-existing infection with tuberculosis (TB) increased the probability of pneumonia and influenza (P&I) mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic, leading to a hastened decline of TB mortality in post-pandemic years. This study describes cultural determinants of the post-pandemic TB mortality patterns in Newfoundland and evaluates whether there is support for this observation.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Death records and historical documents from the Provincial Archives of Newfoundland and Labrador were used to calculate age-standardized island-wide and sex-based TB mortality, as well as region-level TB mortality, for 1900-1939. The Joinpoint Regression Program (version 4.8.0.1) was used to estimate statistically significant changes in mortality rates.

RESULTS

Island-wide, females had consistently higher TB mortality for the duration of the study period and a significant shift to lower TB mortality beginning in 1928. There was no similar predicted significant decline for males. On the regional level, no models predicted a significant decline after the 1918 influenza pandemic, except for the West, where significant decline was predicted in the late-1930s.

DISCUSSION

Although there was no significant decline in TB mortality observed immediately post-pandemic, as has been shown for other Western nations, the female post-pandemic pattern suggests a decline much later. The general lack of significant decrease in TB mortality rate is likely due to Newfoundland's poor nutrition and lack of centralized healthcare rather than a biological interaction between P&I and TB.

The Role of Noncommunicable Diseases in the Pursuit of Global Health Security

Noncommunicable diseases and their risk factors are important for all aspects of outbreak preparedness and response, affecting a range of factors including host susceptibility, pathogen virulence, and health system capacity. This conceptual analysis has 2 objectives. First, we use the Haddon matrix paradigm to formulate a framework for assessing the relevance of noncommunicable diseases to health security efforts throughout all phases of the disaster life cycle: before, during, and after an event. Second, we build upon this framework to identify 6 technical action areas in global health security programs that are opportune integration points for global health security and noncommunicable disease objectives: surveillance, workforce development, laboratory systems, immunization, risk communication, and sustainable financing. We discuss approaches to integration with the goal of maximizing the reach of global health security where infectious disease threats and chronic disease burdens overlap.

Protection against severe infectious disease in the past

Before the 20th century many deaths in England, and most likely a majority, were caused by infectious diseases. The focus here is on the biggest killers, plague, typhus, smallpox, tuberculosis, cholera, typhoid, dysentery, childhood infections, pneumonia, and influenza. Many other infectious diseases including puerperal fever, relapsing fever, malaria, syphilis, meningitis, tetanus and gangrene caused thousands of deaths. This review of preventive measures, public health interventions and changes in behavior that reduced the risk of severe infections puts the response to recent epidemic challenges in historical perspective. Two new respiratory viruses have recently caused pandemics: an H1N1 influenza virus genetically related to pig viruses, and a bat-derived coronavirus causing COVID-19. Studies of infectious diseases emerging in human populations in recent decades indicate that the majority were zoonotic, and many of the causal pathogens had a wildlife origin. As hunter-gatherers, humans contracted pathogens from other species, and then from domesticated animals and rodents when they began to live in settled communities based on agriculture. In the modern world of large inter-connected urban populations and rapid transport, the risk of global transmission of new infectious diseases is high. Past and recent experience indicates that surveillance, prevention and control of infectious diseases are critical for global health. Effective interventions are required to control activities that risk dangerous pathogens transferring to humans from wild animals and those reared for food.

[Predictive validity of a functional classification method in older adultsValidação preditiva de método de classificação funcional em idosos]

Objetivo.

Evaluar la validez predictiva de un método de clasificación funcional (CF) sobre el uso de los servicios de urgencias y hospitalización, mortalidad y costos de la atención en salud en adultos mayores.

Métodos.

Estudio de cohorte retrospectivo que incluyó 2 168 adultos mayores en un programa de atención de las enfermedades crónicas no transmisibles (ECNT) en Medellín (Colombia). Los pacientes fueron estratificados según un método de CF con base en el estado funcional, presencia de factores de riesgo y control de la comorbilidad. Durante un año de seguimiento, se evaluó la validez predictiva de la CF sobre los desenlaces estudiados; se midieron la discriminación y la calibración con el estadístico-C y de Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L), respectivamente.

Resultados.

El promedio de edad fue 74,6 ± 7,9 años; el 40,8% (n = 884) fueron hombres y 7,7% (n = 168) murieron. El riesgo de muerte (razón de posibilidades [OR, por su sigla en inglés]: 1,767; 3,411; 8,525), hospitalización (OR: 1,397; 2,172; 3,540) y un costo elevado de la atención en salud (OR: 1,703; 2,369; 5,073) aumentaron en la medida que hubo un deterioro en la CF, clases 2B, 3 y 4, respectivamente. El modelo predictivo para el desenlace muerte mostró una buena capacidad de discriminación (estadístico-C = 0,721) y calibración (estadístico de H-L = 10,200; P = 0,251).

Conclusión.

Existe una relación de dosis y respuesta entre el deterioro de la CF y un riesgo más elevado de muerte, hospitalización y costo elevado. La CF tiene validez predictiva para la tasa de mortalidad y podría utilizarse para la estratificación de adultos mayores en programas de atención de las ECNT con miras a dirigir las acciones de intervención.

Understanding Structure and Agency as Commercial Determinants of Health Comment on "How Neoliberalism Is Shaping the Supply of Unhealthy Commodities and What This Means for NCD Prevention"

The limited success to date, by the public health community, to address the dramatic rise in non-communicable diseases (NCDs) has prompted growing attention to the commercial determinants of health. This has led to a much needed shift in attention, from metabolic and behavioural risk factors, to the production and consumption of health-harming products by the commercial sector. Building on Lencucha and Thow’s analysis of neoliberalism, in shaping the underlying policy environment favouring commercial interests, we argue for fuller engagement with structure and agency interaction when conceptualising, assessing, and identifying public health measures to address the commercial determinants of health.

Age distribution, trends, and forecasts of under-5 mortality in 31 sub-Saharan African countries: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

Despite the sharp decline in global under-5 deaths since 1990, uneven progress has been achieved across and within countries. In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) for child mortality were met only by a few countries. Valid concerns exist as to whether the region would meet new Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for under-5 mortality. We therefore examine further sources of variation by assessing age patterns, trends, and forecasts of mortality rates.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Data came from 106 nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs) with full birth histories from 31 SSA countries from 1990 to 2017 (a total of 524 country-years of data). We assessed the distribution of age at death through the following new demographic analyses. First, we used a direct method and full birth histories to estimate under-5 mortality rates (U5MRs) on a monthly basis. Second, we smoothed raw estimates of death rates by age and time by using a two-dimensional P-Spline approach. Third, a variant of the Lee-Carter (LC) model, designed for populations with limited data, was used to fit and forecast age profiles of mortality. We used mortality estimates from the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) to adjust, validate, and minimize the risk of bias in survival, truncation, and recall in mortality estimation. Our mortality model revealed substantive declines of death rates at every age in most countries but with notable differences in the age patterns over time. U5MRs declined from 3.3% (annual rate of reduction [ARR] 0.1%) in Lesotho to 76.4% (ARR 5.2%) in Malawi, and the pace of decline was faster on average (ARR 3.2%) than that observed for infant (IMRs) (ARR 2.7%) and neonatal (NMRs) (ARR 2.0%) mortality rates. We predict that 5 countries (Kenya, Rwanda, Senegal, Tanzania, and Uganda) are on track to achieve the under-5 sustainable development target by 2030 (25 deaths per 1,000 live births), but only Rwanda and Tanzania would meet both the neonatal (12 deaths per 1,000 live births) and under-5 targets simultaneously. Our predicted NMRs and U5MRs were in line with those estimated by the UN IGME by 2030 and 2050 (they overlapped in 27/31 countries for NMRs and 22 for U5MRs) and by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) by 2030 (26/31 and 23/31, respectively). This study has a number of limitations, including poor data quality issues that reflected bias in the report of births and deaths, preventing reliable estimates and predictions from a few countries.

CONCLUSIONS

To our knowledge, this study is the first to combine full birth histories and mortality estimates from external reliable sources to model age patterns of under-5 mortality across time in SSA. We demonstrate that countries with a rapid pace of mortality reduction (ARR ≥ 3.2%) across ages would be more likely to achieve the SDG mortality targets. However, the lower pace of neonatal mortality reduction would prevent most countries from achieving those targets: 2 countries would reach them by 2030, 13 between 2030 and 2050, and 13 after 2050.