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Song Y, Shin MJ, Kwon BC, So J, Kim YJ, Kang D, Park NK, Kim M. Synergistic effects of copper and oxygen vacancies in enhancing the efficacy of partially crystalline CuMnxOy catalyst for ozone decomposition. J Chem Phys 2024; 160:234706. [PMID: 38888374 DOI: 10.1063/5.0212226] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/03/2024] [Accepted: 06/03/2024] [Indexed: 06/20/2024] Open
Abstract
To tackle the challenge of ground-level ozone pollution, this study proposed a potential catalytic design approach for ozone decomposition using Cu-Mn bimetallic oxide. This approach is grounded in an understanding of the intrinsic reactivity for catalyst and incorporates a novel potassium-driven low-temperature oxidation process for catalyst synthesis. The research highlights the creation of a highly reactive Cu-Mn oxide phase with extensive defect coverage, leading to significantly increased reaction rates. It also identifies the MnO2(100) facet as a crucial active phase, where oxygen vacancies simultaneously enhance O3 adsorption and decomposition, albeit with a concurrent risk of O2 poisoning due to the stabilization of adsorbed O2. Crucially, the incorporation of Cu offsets the effects of oxygen vacancies, influencing conversion rates and lessening O2 poisoning. The synergistic interplay between Cu and oxygen vacancies elevates the performance of the defect-rich Cu-Mn oxide catalyst. By combining computational and experimental methods, this study not only advances the understanding of the Cu-Mn oxide system for ozone decomposition but also contributes valuable insights into developing more efficient catalysts to mitigate ozone pollution.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuna Song
- School of Chemical Engineering, Yeungnam University, 280 Daehak-ro, Gyeongsan, Gyeongbuk 38541, South Korea
| | - Min Jae Shin
- School of Chemical Engineering, Yeungnam University, 280 Daehak-ro, Gyeongsan, Gyeongbuk 38541, South Korea
| | - Byung Chan Kwon
- Institute of Clean Technology, Yeungnam University, 280 Daehak-ro, Gyeongsan, Gyeongbuk 38541, South Korea
| | - Jungseob So
- Environment and Sustainable Resources Research Center, Korea Research Institute of Chemical Technology, Daejeon 34114, Republic of Korea
| | - Young Jin Kim
- Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyungpook National University, 80 Daehak-ro, Daegu 41566, Republic of Korea
| | - Dohyung Kang
- Department of Future Energy Convergence, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, 232 Gongneung-Ro, Nowon-Gu, Seoul 01811, Republic of Korea
| | - No-Kuk Park
- Institute of Clean Technology, Yeungnam University, 280 Daehak-ro, Gyeongsan, Gyeongbuk 38541, South Korea
| | - Minkyu Kim
- School of Chemical Engineering, Yeungnam University, 280 Daehak-ro, Gyeongsan, Gyeongbuk 38541, South Korea
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Li S, Xu C, Su M, Lu W, Chen Q, Huang Q, Teng Y. Downscaling of environmental indicators: A review. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 916:170251. [PMID: 38262538 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170251] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/07/2023] [Revised: 12/09/2023] [Accepted: 01/16/2024] [Indexed: 01/25/2024]
Abstract
Environmental indicators at different scales are important for environmental management, daily life, and scientific research. Because of the lack of statistics below a national scale for many environmental indicators, scholars have developed various downscaling methods to obtain finer-scale and diverse forms of data for different environmental indicators. However, the existing downscaling methods for environmental indicators are diverse and fragmented. Here, we reviewed the downscaling methods by reclassifying the environmental indicators from a life cycle perspective into five categories: natural resources use and related attributes; material and energy consumption; environmental discharge; climate change; and environmental footprints. We first provide a general introduction to downscaling theory in the environmental field, including definitions, techniques, and evolution. We then elaborate on downscaling methods and make an inventory of the five categories of environmental indicators. We summarize the downscaling methods commonly applied to specific indicators, scale transformation, the strengths and limitations of corresponding methods, and provide specific examples. Next, we discuss ways to select or construct downscaling methods based on four principles: objective orientation, data accessibility, model feasibility, and model adjustment. Finally, we explore the future direction of downscaling and provide insights for improving downscaling for environmental indicators. In this review, we generalize and clarify the downscaling techniques for environmental indicators, which will help facilitate the appropriate selection of downscaling methods by researchers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shiting Li
- Key Laboratory for City Cluster Environmental Safety and Green Development of the Ministry of Education, School of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China
| | - Chao Xu
- Institute of Geography, Humboldt University of Berlin, Berlin 12489, Germany.
| | - Meirong Su
- Key Laboratory for City Cluster Environmental Safety and Green Development of the Ministry of Education, School of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China.
| | - Weiwei Lu
- Shandong Engineering Research Centre for Pollution Control and Resource Valorization in Chemical Industry, College of Environment and Safety Engineering, Qingdao University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266042, China
| | - Qionghong Chen
- Advanced Interdisciplinary Institute of Environment and Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China
| | - Qianyuan Huang
- School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Yanmin Teng
- Research Center for Eco-environmental Engineering, Dongguan University of Technology, Songshan Lake, Dongguan, Guangdong 523808, China
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Bolan S, Padhye LP, Jasemizad T, Govarthanan M, Karmegam N, Wijesekara H, Amarasiri D, Hou D, Zhou P, Biswal BK, Balasubramanian R, Wang H, Siddique KHM, Rinklebe J, Kirkham MB, Bolan N. Impacts of climate change on the fate of contaminants through extreme weather events. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 909:168388. [PMID: 37956854 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168388] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2023] [Revised: 10/14/2023] [Accepted: 11/05/2023] [Indexed: 11/15/2023]
Abstract
The direct impacts of climate change involve a multitude of phenomena, including rising sea levels, intensified severe weather events such as droughts and flooding, increased temperatures leading to wildfires, and unpredictable fluctuations in rainfall. This comprehensive review intends to examine firstly the probable consequences of climate change on extreme weather events such as drought, flood and wildfire. This review subsequently examines the release and transformation of contaminants in terrestrial, aquatic, and atmospheric environments in response to extreme weather events driven by climate change. While drought and flood influence the dynamics of inorganic and organic contaminants in terrestrial and aquatic environments, thereby influencing their mobility and transport, wildfire results in the release and spread of organic contaminants in the atmosphere. There is a nascent awareness of climate change's influence of climate change-induced extreme weather events on the dynamics of environmental contaminants in the scientific community and decision-making processes. The remediation industry, in particular, lags behind in adopting adaptive measures for managing contaminated environments affected by climate change-induced extreme weather events. However, recognizing the need for assessment measures represents a pivotal first step towards fostering more adaptive practices in the management of contaminated environments. We highlight the urgency of collaboration between environmental chemists and climate change experts, emphasizing the importance of jointly assessing the fate of contaminants and rigorous action to augment risk assessment and remediation strategies to safeguard the health of our environment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shiv Bolan
- UWA School of Agriculture and Environment, The University of Western Australia, Perth, WA 6009, Australia; The UWA Institute of Agriculture, The University of Western Australia, Perth, WA 6009, Australia; Healthy Environments and Lives (HEAL) National Research Network, Australia
| | - Lokesh P Padhye
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, The University of Auckland, Auckland 1010, New Zealand
| | - Tahereh Jasemizad
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, The University of Auckland, Auckland 1010, New Zealand
| | - Muthusamy Govarthanan
- Kyungpook National University, 80 Daehak-ro, Buk-gu, Daegu 41566, South Korea; Department of Biomaterials, Saveetha Dental College and Hospital, Saveetha Institute of Medical and Technical Sciences, Saveetha University, Chennai 600077, Tamil Nadu, India
| | - N Karmegam
- PG and Research Department of Botany, Government Arts College (Autonomous), Salem 636 007, Tamil Nadu, India
| | - Hasintha Wijesekara
- Department of Natural Resources, Faculty of Applied Sciences, Sabaragamuwa University, Belihuloya 70140, Sri Lanka
| | - Dhulmy Amarasiri
- Department of Natural Resources, Faculty of Applied Sciences, Sabaragamuwa University, Belihuloya 70140, Sri Lanka
| | - Deyi Hou
- School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, People's Republic of China
| | - Pingfan Zhou
- School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, People's Republic of China
| | - Basanta Kumar Biswal
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117576, Singapore
| | - Rajasekhar Balasubramanian
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117576, Singapore
| | - Hailong Wang
- Biochar Engineering Technology Research Center of Guangdong Province, School of Environmental and Chemical Engineering, Foshan University, Foshan, Guangdong 528000, People's Republic of China
| | - Kadambot H M Siddique
- UWA School of Agriculture and Environment, The University of Western Australia, Perth, WA 6009, Australia; The UWA Institute of Agriculture, The University of Western Australia, Perth, WA 6009, Australia
| | - Jörg Rinklebe
- University of Wuppertal, School of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Institute of Foundation Engineering, Water- and Waste-Management, Laboratory of Soil- and Groundwater-Management, Pauluskirchstraße 7, 42285 Wuppertal, Germany
| | - M B Kirkham
- Department of Agronomy, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA
| | - Nanthi Bolan
- UWA School of Agriculture and Environment, The University of Western Australia, Perth, WA 6009, Australia; The UWA Institute of Agriculture, The University of Western Australia, Perth, WA 6009, Australia; Healthy Environments and Lives (HEAL) National Research Network, Australia.
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4
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Liu B, Jiang P. A method for calibrating measurement data of a micro air quality monitor based on MLR-BRT-ARIMA combined model. RSC Adv 2023; 13:17495-17507. [PMID: 37312996 PMCID: PMC10258677 DOI: 10.1039/d3ra02408c] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/11/2023] [Accepted: 06/02/2023] [Indexed: 06/15/2023] Open
Abstract
A micro air quality monitor can realize grid monitoring and real-time monitoring of air pollutants. Its development can effectively help human beings to control air pollution and improve air quality. However, affected by many factors, the measurement accuracy of micro air quality monitors needs to be improved. In this paper, a combined calibration model of Multiple Linear Regression, Boosted Regression Tree and AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average model (MLR-BRT-ARIMA) is proposed to calibrate the measurement data of the micro air quality monitor. First, the very widely used and easily interpretable multiple linear regression model is used to find the linear relationship between various pollutant concentrations and the measurement data of the micro air quality monitor to obtain the fitted values of various pollutant concentrations. Second, we take the measurement data of the micro air quality monitor and the fitted value of the multiple regression model as the input, and use the boosted regression tree to find the nonlinear relationship between the concentrations of various pollutants and the input variables. Finally, the autoregressive integrated moving average model is used to extract the information hidden in the residual sequence, and finally the establishment of the MLR-BRT-ARIMA model is completed. Root mean square error, mean absolute error and relative mean absolute percent error are used to compare the calibration effect of the MLR-BRT-ARIMA model and other commonly used models such as multilayer perceptron neural network, support vector regression machine and nonlinear autoregressive models with exogenous input. The results show that no matter what kind of pollutant, the MLR-BRT-ARIMA combined model proposed in this paper has the best performance of the three indicators. Using this model to calibrate the measurement value of the micro air quality monitor can improve the accuracy by 82.4-95.4%.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bing Liu
- Public Foundational Courses Department, Nanjing Vocational University of Industry Technology Nanjing 210023 China
| | - Peijun Jiang
- Automotive College, Sanmenxia Polytechnic Sanmenxia 472000 China
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Liu S, Wu T, Wang Q, Zhang Y, Tian J, Ran W, Cao J. High time-resolution source apportionment and health risk assessment for PM 2.5-bound elements at an industrial city in northwest China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 870:161907. [PMID: 36731549 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161907] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/17/2022] [Revised: 01/19/2023] [Accepted: 01/26/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
To better respond to heavy air pollution, the local government of Baoji City, a traditionally industry dominated city in northwest China, released several warning levels between December 2019 and January 2020. The system aims to provide a more efficient control of pollution sources. In this study, a high-time resolution measurement of PM2.5-bound elements was applied to capture the diurnal-scale dynamic processes associated with major pollution activities in northwest China. A series of elements were quantified and used for source apportionment using the positive matrix factorization (PMF) model. Combined with the local characteristics, nine sources were resolved with contributions in descending order: fugitive dust (36.6 %), biomass burning (20.1 %), traffic-related (10.4 %), coal combustion (10.0 %), titanium alloy smelting (7.2 %), As-related industry (6.9 %), Zn-related industry (5.6 %), molybdenum alloy smelting (2.5 %), and Cr-related industry (0.7 %). The health risk assessment indicated non-carcinogenic risks for Mn and carcinogenic risks for As and Cr in both adults and children. The cumulative non-carcinogenic risk for the elements was 3.2 times the safety threshold, while the carcinogenic risk (CR) was 6.8 and 27 times the acceptable levels for children and adults, respectively. For source-resolved risks, As- and Cr-related industry emissions showed the highest carcinogenic risk. Five of the nine resolved sources for adults have CR values 1.4 and 9.7 times the acceptable level. This study provides valuable information for developing targeted strategies to control air pollutants and protect public health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Suixin Liu
- Key Laboratory of Aerosol Chemistry and Physics, State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an 710061, China; CAS Center for Excellence in Quaternary Science and Global Change, Xi'an 710061, China
| | - Tingting Wu
- Xi'an Institute for Innovative Earth Environment Research, Xi'an 710061, China; National Observation and Research Station of Regional Ecological Environment Change and Comprehensive Management in the Guanzhong Plain, Shaanxi, Xi'an 710061, China
| | - Qiyuan Wang
- Key Laboratory of Aerosol Chemistry and Physics, State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an 710061, China; CAS Center for Excellence in Quaternary Science and Global Change, Xi'an 710061, China; National Observation and Research Station of Regional Ecological Environment Change and Comprehensive Management in the Guanzhong Plain, Shaanxi, Xi'an 710061, China.
| | - Yong Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Aerosol Chemistry and Physics, State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an 710061, China
| | - Jie Tian
- Key Laboratory of Aerosol Chemistry and Physics, State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an 710061, China
| | - Weikang Ran
- Key Laboratory of Aerosol Chemistry and Physics, State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an 710061, China; National Observation and Research Station of Regional Ecological Environment Change and Comprehensive Management in the Guanzhong Plain, Shaanxi, Xi'an 710061, China
| | - Junji Cao
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China.
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6
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Tella A, Balogun AL. GIS-based air quality modelling: spatial prediction of PM10 for Selangor State, Malaysia using machine learning algorithms. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2022; 29:86109-86125. [PMID: 34533750 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-16150-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/11/2021] [Accepted: 08/20/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Rapid urbanization has caused severe deterioration of air quality globally, leading to increased hospitalization and premature deaths. Therefore, accurate prediction of air quality is crucial for mitigation planning to support urban sustainability and resilience. Although some studies have predicted air pollutants such as particulate matter (PM) using machine learning algorithms (MLAs), there is a paucity of studies on spatial hazard assessment with respect to the air quality index (AQI). Incorporating PM in AQI studies is crucial because of its easily inhalable micro-size which has adverse impacts on ecology, environment, and human health. Accurate and timely prediction of the air quality index can ensure adequate intervention to aid air quality management. Therefore, this study undertakes a spatial hazard assessment of the air quality index using particulate matter with a diameter of 10 μm or lesser (PM10) in Selangor, Malaysia, by developing four machine learning models: eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), random forest (RF), K-nearest neighbour (KNN), and Naive Bayes (NB). Spatially processed data such as NDVI, SAVI, BU, LST, Ws, slope, elevation, and road density was used for the modelling. The model was trained with 70% of the dataset, while 30% was used for cross-validation. Results showed that XGBoost has the highest overall accuracy and precision of 0.989 and 0.995, followed by random forest (0.989, 0.993), K-nearest neighbour (0.987, 0.984), and Naive Bayes (0.917, 0.922), respectively. The spatial air quality maps were generated by integrating the geographical information system (GIS) with the four MLAs, which correlated with Malaysia's air pollution index. The maps indicate that air quality in Selangor is satisfactory and posed no threats to health. Nevertheless, the two algorithms with the best performance (XGBoost and RF) indicate that a high percentage of the air quality is moderate. The study concludes that successful air pollution management policies such as green infrastructure practice, improvement of energy efficiency, and restrictions on heavy-duty vehicles can be adopted in Selangor and other Southeast Asian cities to prevent deterioration of air quality in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Abdulwaheed Tella
- Geospatial Analysis and Modelling (GAM) Research Laboratory, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS (UTP), 32610, Seri Iskandar, Perak, Malaysia.
| | - Abdul-Lateef Balogun
- Geospatial Analysis and Modelling (GAM) Research Laboratory, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS (UTP), 32610, Seri Iskandar, Perak, Malaysia
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Abstract
Nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) are toxic air pollutants and play a significant role in tropospheric chemistry. Global NOx hotspots are the industrialised regions of the USA, Europe, Middle East, East Asia and eastern parts of South Africa. Lightning is one of the many natural and anthropogenic sources of NOx to the troposphere. It plays a role in the formation of particulate matter and tropospheric ozone, which are both linked to harmful health and climate effects. The discourse on NOx over the southern African continent has mainly focused on anthropogenic sources. However, lightning is known to be a main source of tropospheric NOx globally. It is therefore important to understand its contribution to the national and global NOx budget. Data from the South African Lightning Detection Network were used to approximate the influence of lightning on the NOx load over the country, and to develop a gridded data set of lightning-produced NOx (LNOx) emissions for the period 2008 2015. The Network monitors cloud-toground lightning strikes; and theoretically has a detection efficiency of 90% and a location accuracy of 0.5 km. An emission factor of 11.5 kg NO2/flash was employed to calculate the LNOx budget of ~270 kt NO2/year. The calculated LNOx was 14% of the total NOx emission estimates published in the EDGAR v4.2 data set for the year 2008. The LNOx emission inventory will improve model performance and prediction, and enhance the understanding of the contribution of lightning to ambient NO2.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Gregor Feig
- South African Environmental Observation Network, Pretoria, South Africa
| | - Roelof Burger
- Unit for Environmental Sciences and Management, North-West University, Potchefstroom, South Africa
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Crop Residue Burning in Northeast China and Its Impact on PM2.5 Concentrations in South Korea. ATMOSPHERE 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos12091212] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
The impact of crop residue burning in northeastern China on South Korean PM2.5 concentrations was assessed via weather conditions, air quality modeling (AQM), and PM2.5 composition data during two cases exceeding 35 µg·m−3 in November 2015. PM2.5 concentration simulations of Case 1 differed from observations by 3.7–17.6 µg·m−3, overestimating the levels by 6–36%; however, Case 2 varied by 20.0–59.8 µg·m−3 from observations, with a 53–91% underestimation. Case 1 was generally well simulated, whereas the Case 2 simulation failed because the emissions of crop residue burning in northeastern China, as confirmed through satellite analysis (MODIS fires and thermal anomalies) and previous research, were not considered. The portion of organic/elemental carbon ratio during Case 2 was 1.6–2.3 times higher than that of Case 1. These results suggest that it is necessary to consider the effects of crop residue burning in northeast China to establish countermeasures to improve air quality and air quality forecasting in South Korea.
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O’Dell K, Bilsback K, Ford B, Martenies SE, Magzamen S, Fischer EV, Pierce JR. Estimated Mortality and Morbidity Attributable to Smoke Plumes in the United States: Not Just a Western US Problem. GEOHEALTH 2021; 5:e2021GH000457. [PMID: 34504989 PMCID: PMC8420710 DOI: 10.1029/2021gh000457] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2021] [Revised: 08/05/2021] [Accepted: 08/11/2021] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
As anthropogenic emissions continue to decline and emissions from landscape (wild, prescribed, and agricultural) fires increase across the coming century, the relative importance of landscape-fire smoke on air quality and health in the United States (US) will increase. Landscape fires are a large source of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), which has known negative impacts on human health. The seasonal and spatial distribution, particle composition, and co-emitted species in landscape-fire emissions are different from anthropogenic sources of PM2.5. The implications of landscape-fire emissions on the sub-national temporal and spatial distribution of health events and the relative health importance of specific pollutants within smoke are not well understood. We use a health impact assessment with observation-based smoke PM2.5 to determine the sub-national distribution of mortality and the sub-national and sub-annual distribution of asthma morbidity attributable to US smoke PM2.5 from 2006 to 2018. We estimate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for PM2.5 and 18 gas-phase hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) in smoke. Although the majority of large landscape fires occur in the western US, we find the majority of mortality (74%) and asthma morbidity (on average 75% across 2006-2018) attributable to smoke PM2.5 occurs outside the West, due to higher population density in the East. Across the US, smoke-attributable asthma morbidity predominantly occurs in spring and summer. The number of DALYs associated with smoke PM2.5 is approximately three orders of magnitude higher than DALYs associated with gas-phase smoke HAPs. Our results indicate awareness and mitigation of landscape-fire smoke exposure is important across the US.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katelyn O’Dell
- Department of Atmospheric ScienceColorado State UniversityFort CollinsCOUSA
| | - Kelsey Bilsback
- Department of Atmospheric ScienceColorado State UniversityFort CollinsCOUSA
| | - Bonne Ford
- Department of Atmospheric ScienceColorado State UniversityFort CollinsCOUSA
| | - Sheena E. Martenies
- Department of Kinesiology and Community HealthUniversity of Illinois at Urbana‐ChampaignUrbanaILUSA
| | - Sheryl Magzamen
- Department of Environmental and Radiological Health SciencesColorado State UniversityFort CollinsCOUSA
| | - Emily V. Fischer
- Department of Atmospheric ScienceColorado State UniversityFort CollinsCOUSA
| | - Jeffrey R. Pierce
- Department of Atmospheric ScienceColorado State UniversityFort CollinsCOUSA
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Fazli T, Dong X, Fu JS, Stephens B. Predicting U.S. Residential Building Energy Use and Indoor Pollutant Exposures in the Mid-21st Century. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2021; 55:3219-3228. [PMID: 33591182 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.0c06308] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
The extent to which climate change and other factors will influence building energy use and population exposures to indoor pollutants is not well understood. Here, we develop and apply nationally representative residential energy and indoor pollutant model sets to estimate energy use, indoor pollutant concentrations, and associated chronic health outcomes across the U.S. residential building stock in the mid-21st century. The models incorporate expected changes in meteorological and ambient air quality conditions associated with IPCC RCP 8.5 and assumptions for changes in housing characteristics and population movements while keeping other less predictable factors constant. Site and source energy consumption for residential space-conditioning are predicted to decrease by ∼37-43 and ∼20-31%, respectively, in the 2050s compared to those in a 2010s reference scenario. Population-average indoor concentrations of pollutants of ambient origin are expected to decrease, except for O3. Holding indoor emission factors constant, indoor concentrations of pollutants with intermittent indoor sources are expected to decrease by <5% (PM2.5) to >30% (NO2); indoor concentrations of pollutants with persistent indoor sources (e.g., volatile organic compounds (VOCs)) are predicted to increase by ∼15-45%. We estimate negligible changes in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost associated with residential indoor pollutant exposures, well within uncertainty, although the attribution among pollutants is predicted to vary.
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Affiliation(s)
- Torkan Fazli
- Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, Illinois Institute of Technology, Chicago, Illinois 60616, United States
| | - Xinyi Dong
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Knoxville, Tennessee 37996, United States
| | - Joshua S Fu
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Knoxville, Tennessee 37996, United States
- Computational Earth Sciences Group, Computational Sciences and Engineering Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831, United States
| | - Brent Stephens
- Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, Illinois Institute of Technology, Chicago, Illinois 60616, United States
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11
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Teleconnection between the Asian Polar Vortex and surface PM 2.5 in China. Sci Rep 2020; 10:19431. [PMID: 33173049 PMCID: PMC7655842 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-76414-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2020] [Accepted: 10/27/2020] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Atmospheric fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollutions are of particular concern because of their direct and indirect harm to humans and organisms. China has suffered from severe air pollution for the past ten years, related to heavy pollution emissions and compounded by the effects of atmospheric circulation. This study applied statistical methods, observational data of ground pollutants, and meteorological data to analyze the impact of large-scale atmospheric circulations on PM2.5 pollution over China. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was used to evaluate the main PM2.5 patterns and total contributions of the leading four EOFs. The results indicate that the total contributions of the leading four EOFs accounted for 50.5% of the total variance, reflecting four main types of PM2.5 pollution, namely, overall pollution phase, north–south phase, east–west phase and north–center–south phase, with contributions of 28.4%, 9.7%, 6.5% and 5.9%, respectively. We selected indices of the Asian Polar Vortex (APV) to analyze the impact of large-scale atmospheric circulations on PM2.5 pollution over China. The most pronounced APV control occurred in Beijing and its surroundings, specifically, along the Bohai Sea and the Northeast Plain.
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12
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Swamy GSNVKSN, Nagendra SM, Schlink U. Impact of urban heat island on meteorology and air quality at microenvironments. JOURNAL OF THE AIR & WASTE MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATION (1995) 2020; 70:876-891. [PMID: 32579440 DOI: 10.1080/10962247.2020.1783390] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/04/2019] [Revised: 04/20/2020] [Accepted: 05/18/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
This study analyzes the air pollution characteristics and their relation to meteorological conditions in Chennai, India. Meteorological conditions were the primary factor determining variations in daily average pollutant concentrations. The influence of urban infrastructure on meteorology is an important prediction on air quality. Understanding of the seasonal and diurnal secondary pollutant concentrations as a function of local meteorological conditions is necessary for urban air quality management. Micro-scale models for analyzing the surface layer interactions with the surrounding environment have recently gained attention. An attempt has been made to understand the effect of meteorology on air quality. This comprehensive study aims to assess the influence of local meteorology on urban air quality. The correlation was established between the change in meteorological parameters and mixing height on air quality at selected locations in a tropical urban environment. Results indicated the significant impact of land use patterns on the dispersion of air quality at study locations. Seasonal variations of ambient air temperatures at study locations were found to be more than 3°C in summer. Average mixing height variation among the study locations was observed to be more than 200 meters in summer. Results indicated the importance of wind velocity on the mixing height at study locations. The average concentrations of air quality parameters showed significant variation among the study locations. The maximum ozone (O3) concentration was recorded at the Central Business District (CBD) during the afternoon, i.e., around 38.3 ppb, whereas it was 26.8 and 14.6 ppb at the Residential Area (RA) and Urban Baseline (UBL), respectively. A strong correlation was observed between ambient temperature and O3 concentration during summer. In the winter, the average O3 concentration in all three-study locations increased to 45.3 ppb, 45.8 ppb, and 58.5 ppb at UBL, RA, and CBD sites, respectively. The study reveals the impact of microenvironments on air quality. Implications: An attempt has been made to study the seasonal and diurnal variation of air quality levels in selected study regions with land cover change. This article focuses mainly on the surface temperature intensity variations with respect to the percentage of land use pattern change in Chennai city, India, and the subsequent effect on meteorology of dispersion conditions and air quality parameters has been studied. The relationship between local meteorology and air quality has been established.
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Affiliation(s)
- G S N V K S N Swamy
- Environmental and Water Resource Engineering Division, IIT Madras , Chennai, India
| | - S M Nagendra
- Environmental and Water Resource Engineering Division, IIT Madras , Chennai, India
| | - Uwe Schlink
- Department Urban and Environmental Sociology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ , Leipzig, Germany
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Gao D, Xie M, Chen X, Wang T, Zhan C, Ren J, Liu Q. Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Surface Ozone during Summer in the Yangtze River Delta Region, China. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2019; 16:E1528. [PMID: 31052196 PMCID: PMC6539038 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16091528] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/02/2019] [Accepted: 04/22/2019] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Future climate change can impact ozone concentrations by changing regional meteorological factors related to ozone (O3) pollution. To better understand the variations of meteorological factors and their effects on O3 formation processes under future climate conditions, we model the present and the future meteorology and air quality in summer over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region by using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry module (WRF/Chem), which is driven by the outputs of Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). The simulations predict that solar radiation, 2-m air temperature, and wind speed increase in the daytime over most of the YRD region. Absolute humidity and precipitation increase in the north and decrease in the south, while the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) has an opposite change pattern displaying a decrease in the north and an increase in the south. The southerly wind will be strengthened in the daytime. At night, the change patterns of the meteorological factors are similar to the daytime but with small variations. Meanwhile, O3 and its precursors all increase in the north and decrease in the south. The increases of NOx, volatile organic compounds (VOC), and CO are related with the decreases of PBLH and the input effect of stronger southerly wind, while the decreases are attributed to the output effect of the stronger southerly wind. During the daytime, the increase of surface O3 in the north is dominated by the chemical processes related with the increases of solar radiation, air temperature, and O3 precursors. The decrease of surface O3 in the south is mainly caused by the transport process changing with the strengthened southerly wind. At night, the surface O3 changing the amplitude is less than the daytime. The less O3 variations at night can be attributed to an O3 titration reaction with NO, the changes in NOx concentrations, and the increases of nocturnal PBLH. With the aid of H2O2/HNO3, O3 formation in the YRD region is found to be easily affected by NOx in the future. The findings can help to understand the changing trend of O3 in the YRD region and can propose reasonable pollution control policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Da Gao
- School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China.
| | - Min Xie
- School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China.
| | - Xing Chen
- School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China.
| | - Tijian Wang
- School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China.
| | - Chenchao Zhan
- School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China.
| | - Junyu Ren
- School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China.
| | - Qian Liu
- Jiangsu Provincial Academy of Environmental Science, Nanjing 210036, China.
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Abstract
This article on exposome and asthma focuses on the interaction of patients and their environments in various parts of their growth, development, and stages of life. Indoor and outdoor environments play a role in pathogenesis via levels and duration of exposure, with genetic susceptibility as a crucial factor that alters the initiation and trajectory of common conditions such as asthma. Knowledge of environmental exposures globally and changes that are occurring is necessary to function effectively as medical professionals and health advocates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ahila Subramanian
- Department of Allergy and Clinical Immunology, Respiratory Institute, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland Clinic Lerner College of Medicine, CWRU School of Medicine, 9500 Euclid Avenue/A90, Cleveland, OH 4419, USA
| | - Sumita B Khatri
- Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Respiratory Institute, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland Clinic Lerner College of Medicine, CWRU School of Medicine, 9500 Euclid Avenue/A90, Cleveland, OH 4419, USA.
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Abel DW, Holloway T, Harkey M, Meier P, Ahl D, Limaye VS, Patz JA. Air-quality-related health impacts from climate change and from adaptation of cooling demand for buildings in the eastern United States: An interdisciplinary modeling study. PLoS Med 2018; 15:e1002599. [PMID: 29969461 PMCID: PMC6029751 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002599] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2018] [Accepted: 05/30/2018] [Indexed: 01/13/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Climate change negatively impacts human health through heat stress and exposure to worsened air pollution, amongst other pathways. Indoor use of air conditioning can be an effective strategy to reduce heat exposure. However, increased air conditioning use increases emissions of air pollutants from power plants, in turn worsening air quality and human health impacts. We used an interdisciplinary linked model system to quantify the impacts of heat-driven adaptation through building cooling demand on air-quality-related health outcomes in a representative mid-century climate scenario. METHODS AND FINDINGS We used a modeling system that included downscaling historical and future climate data with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, simulating building electricity demand using the Regional Building Energy Simulation System (RBESS), simulating power sector production and emissions using MyPower, simulating ambient air quality using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, and calculating the incidence of adverse health outcomes using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP). We performed simulations for a representative present-day climate scenario and 2 representative mid-century climate scenarios, with and without exacerbated power sector emissions from adaptation in building energy use. We find that by mid-century, climate change alone can increase fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations by 58.6% (2.50 μg/m3) and ozone (O3) by 14.9% (8.06 parts per billion by volume [ppbv]) for the month of July. A larger change is found when comparing the present day to the combined impact of climate change and increased building energy use, where PM2.5 increases 61.1% (2.60 μg/m3) and O3 increases 15.9% (8.64 ppbv). Therefore, 3.8% of the total increase in PM2.5 and 6.7% of the total increase in O3 is attributable to adaptive behavior (extra air conditioning use). Health impacts assessment finds that for a mid-century climate change scenario (with adaptation), annual PM2.5-related adult mortality increases by 13,547 deaths (14 concentration-response functions with mean incidence range of 1,320 to 26,481, approximately US$126 billion cost) and annual O3-related adult mortality increases by 3,514 deaths (3 functions with mean incidence range of 2,175 to 4,920, approximately US$32.5 billion cost), calculated as a 3-month summer estimate based on July modeling. Air conditioning adaptation accounts for 654 (range of 87 to 1,245) of the PM2.5-related deaths (approximately US$6 billion cost, a 4.8% increase above climate change impacts alone) and 315 (range of 198 to 438) of the O3-related deaths (approximately US$3 billion cost, an 8.7% increase above climate change impacts alone). Limitations of this study include modeling only a single month, based on 1 model-year of future climate simulations. As a result, we do not project the future, but rather describe the potential damages from interactions arising between climate, energy use, and air quality. CONCLUSIONS This study examines the contribution of future air-pollution-related health damages that are caused by the power sector through heat-driven air conditioning adaptation in buildings. Results show that without intervention, approximately 5%-9% of exacerbated air-pollution-related mortality will be due to increases in power sector emissions from heat-driven building electricity demand. This analysis highlights the need for cleaner energy sources, energy efficiency, and energy conservation to meet our growing dependence on building cooling systems and simultaneously mitigate climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- David W. Abel
- Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE), Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
| | - Tracey Holloway
- Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE), Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
| | - Monica Harkey
- Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE), Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
| | - Paul Meier
- Wisconsin Energy Institute (WEI), University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
- Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center (GLBRC), University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
- Meier Engineering Research LLC, Stoughton, Wisconsin, United States of America
| | - Doug Ahl
- Seventhwave, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
| | - Vijay S. Limaye
- Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE), Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
- Global Health Institute, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
| | - Jonathan A. Patz
- Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE), Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
- Global Health Institute, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
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Chen K, Fiore AM, Chen R, Jiang L, Jones B, Schneider A, Peters A, Bi J, Kan H, Kinney PL. Future ozone-related acute excess mortality under climate and population change scenarios in China: A modeling study. PLoS Med 2018; 15:e1002598. [PMID: 29969446 PMCID: PMC6029756 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002598] [Citation(s) in RCA: 44] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2018] [Accepted: 05/30/2018] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Climate change is likely to further worsen ozone pollution in already heavily polluted areas, leading to increased ozone-related health burdens. However, little evidence exists in China, the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter and most populated country. As China is embracing an aging population with changing population size and falling age-standardized mortality rates, the potential impact of population change on ozone-related health burdens is unclear. Moreover, little is known about the seasonal variation of ozone-related health burdens under climate change. We aimed to assess near-term (mid-21st century) future annual and seasonal excess mortality from short-term exposure to ambient ozone in 104 Chinese cities under 2 climate and emission change scenarios and 6 population change scenarios. METHODS AND FINDINGS We collected historical ambient ozone observations, population change projections, and baseline mortality rates in 104 cities across China during April 27, 2013, to October 31, 2015 (2013-2015), which included approximately 13% of the total population of mainland China. Using historical ozone monitoring data, we performed bias correction and spatially downscaled future ozone projections at a coarse spatial resolution (2.0° × 2.5°) for the period April 27, 2053, to October 31, 2055 (2053-2055), from a global chemistry-climate model to a fine spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) under 2 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5, a moderate global warming and emission scenario where global warming is between 1.5°C and 2.0°C, and RCP8.5, a high global warming and emission scenario where global warming exceeds 2.0°C. We then estimated the future annual and seasonal ozone-related acute excess mortality attributable to both climate and population changes using cause-specific, age-group-specific, and season-specific concentration-response functions (CRFs). We used Monte Carlo simulations to obtain empirical confidence intervals (eCIs), quantifying the uncertainty in CRFs and the variability across ensemble members (i.e., 3 predictions of future climate and air quality from slightly different starting conditions) of the global model. Estimates of future changes in annual ozone-related mortality are sensitive to the choice of global warming and emission scenario, decreasing under RCP4.5 (-24.0%) due to declining ozone precursor emissions but increasing under RCP8.5 (10.7%) due to warming climate in 2053-2055 relative to 2013-2015. Higher ambient ozone occurs under the high global warming and emission scenario (RCP8.5), leading to an excess 1,476 (95% eCI: 898 to 2,977) non-accidental deaths per year in 2053-2055 relative to 2013-2015. Future ozone-related acute excess mortality from cardiovascular diseases was 5-8 times greater than that from respiratory diseases. Ozone concentrations increase by 15.1 parts per billion (10-9) in colder months (November to April), contributing to a net yearly increase of 22.3% (95% eCI: 7.7% to 35.4%) in ozone-related mortality under RCP8.5. An aging population, with the proportion of the population aged 65 years and above increased from 8% in 2010 to 24%-33% in 2050, will substantially amplify future ozone-related mortality, leading to a net increase of 23,838 to 78,560 deaths (110% to 363%). Our analysis was mainly limited by using a single global chemistry-climate model and the statistical downscaling approach to project ozone changes under climate change. CONCLUSIONS Our analysis shows increased future ozone-related acute excess mortality under the high global warming and emission scenario RCP8.5 for an aging population in China. Comparison with the lower global warming and emission scenario RCP4.5 suggests that climate change mitigation measures are needed to prevent a rising health burden from exposure to ambient ozone pollution in China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kai Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Arlene M. Fiore
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, New York, United States of America
| | - Renjie Chen
- Shanghai Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Particle Pollution and Prevention, Shanghai, China
- School of Public Health, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment of the Ministry of Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Leiwen Jiang
- Asian Demographic Research Institute, School of Sociology and Political Science, Shanghai University, Shanghai, China
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Bryan Jones
- Marxe School of Public and International Affairs, Baruch College, New York, New York, United States of America
| | | | - Annette Peters
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Jun Bi
- State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
| | - Haidong Kan
- Shanghai Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Particle Pollution and Prevention, Shanghai, China
- School of Public Health, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment of the Ministry of Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Patrick L. Kinney
- Department of Environmental Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
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Emami F, Masiol M, Hopke PK. Air pollution at Rochester, NY: Long-term trends and multivariate analysis of upwind SO 2 source impacts. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2018; 612:1506-1515. [PMID: 28915545 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.09.026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/09/2017] [Revised: 08/23/2017] [Accepted: 09/04/2017] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
Abstract
There have been many changes in the air pollutant sources in the northeastern United States since 2001. To assess the effect of these changes, trend analyses of the monthly average values were performed on PM2.5 and its components including major ions, elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), and gaseous pollutant concentrations measured between 2001 (in some cases 1999) and 2015 at the NYS Department of Environmental Conservation sites in Rochester, NY. Mann-Kendall regression with Sen's slope was applied to estimate the trends and seasonality. Using piecewise regression, significant reductions in the air pollution of Rochester area were observed between 2008 and 2010 when a 260MW coal-fired power plant was decommissioned, new heavy-duty diesel trucks had to be equipped with catalytic regenerator traps, and the economic recession that began in 2008 reduced traffic and other activities. The monthly average PM2.5 mass showed a downward trend (-5μg/m3; -41%) in Rochester between 2001 and 2015. This change is largely due to reductions in particulate sulfate that showed a 65% decrease. The sulfate concentrations were compared to changes in SO2 emissions in seventeen upwind source domains, and other systematic changes by multivariate linear regression. Selectivity ratio obtained from target projection discriminated the most important source domains that are SO2 emissions from Georgia for winter, North Carolina for transition (spring and fall) and Ohio along with other influences for summer. North Carolina and Michigan were identified as the main sources for entire period. These observations suggest that any further reductions in the specified regional SO2 emissions would result in a proportional decrease in sulfate in Rochester.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fereshteh Emami
- Center for Air Resources Engineering and Science, Clarkson University, Potsdam, NY 13699, United States
| | - Mauro Masiol
- Center for Air Resources Engineering and Science, Clarkson University, Potsdam, NY 13699, United States; Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry, Rochester, NY 14642, United States
| | - Philip K Hopke
- Center for Air Resources Engineering and Science, Clarkson University, Potsdam, NY 13699, United States; Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry, Rochester, NY 14642, United States.
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18
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Lefohn AS, Malley CS, Smith L, Wells B, Hazucha M, Simon H, Naik V, Mills G, Schultz MG, Paoletti E, De Marco A, Xu X, Zhang L, Wang T, Neufeld HS, Musselman RC, Tarasick D, Brauer M, Feng Z, Tang H, Kobayashi K, Sicard P, Solberg S, Gerosa G. Tropospheric ozone assessment report: Global ozone metrics for climate change, human health, and crop/ecosystem research. ELEMENTA (WASHINGTON, D.C.) 2018; 1:1. [PMID: 30345319 PMCID: PMC6192432 DOI: 10.1525/elementa.279] [Citation(s) in RCA: 82] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
Assessment of spatial and temporal variation in the impacts of ozone on human health, vegetation, and climate requires appropriate metrics. A key component of the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) is the consistent calculation of these metrics at thousands of monitoring sites globally. Investigating temporal trends in these metrics required that the same statistical methods be applied across these ozone monitoring sites. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test (for significant trends) and the Theil-Sen estimator (for estimating the magnitude of trend) were selected to provide robust methods across all sites. This paper provides the scientific underpinnings necessary to better understand the implications of and rationale for selecting a specific TOAR metric for assessing spatial and temporal variation in ozone for a particular impact. The rationale and underlying research evidence that influence the derivation of specific metrics are given. The form of 25 metrics (4 for model-measurement comparison, 5 for characterization of ozone in the free troposphere, 11 for human health impacts, and 5 for vegetation impacts) are described. Finally, this study categorizes health and vegetation exposure metrics based on the extent to which they are determined only by the highest hourly ozone levels, or by a wider range of values. The magnitude of the metrics is influenced by both the distribution of hourly average ozone concentrations at a site location, and the extent to which a particular metric is determined by relatively low, moderate, and high hourly ozone levels. Hence, for the same ozone time series, changes in the distribution of ozone concentrations can result in different changes in the magnitude and direction of trends for different metrics. Thus, dissimilar conclusions about the effect of changes in the drivers of ozone variability (e.g., precursor emissions) on health and vegetation exposure can result from the selection of different metrics.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Christopher S. Malley
- Stockholm Environment Institute, Environment
Department, University of York, York, UK
- NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Penicuik,
UK
- School of Chemistry, University of Edinburgh,
Edinburgh, UK
| | - Luther Smith
- Alion Science and Technology, Inc., Research
Triangle Park, NC, US
| | - Benjamin Wells
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S.
EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC, US
| | - Milan Hazucha
- Center for Environmental Medicine, Asthma, and Lung
Biology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, US
| | - Heather Simon
- Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S.
EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC, US
| | - Vaishali Naik
- NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory,
Princeton, NJ, US
| | - Gina Mills
- NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology,
Environment Centre Wales, Bangor, UK
| | | | - Elena Paoletti
- Institute for Sustainable Plant Protection,
National Research Council, Florence, IT
| | - Alessandra De Marco
- Italian National Agency for New
Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development, Rome, IT
| | - Xiaobin Xu
- Key Laboratory for Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of
Atmospheric Composition, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing,
CN
| | - Li Zhang
- Department of Civil and
Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, CN
| | - Tao Wang
- Department of Civil and
Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, CN
| | | | | | - David Tarasick
- Air Quality Research Division,
Environment and Climate Change Canada, Downsview, ON, CA
| | - Michael Brauer
- School of Population and Public
Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, CA
| | - Zhaozhong Feng
- Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese
Academy of Sciences, Beijing, CN
| | - Haoye Tang
- Institute of Soil Sciences,
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, CN
| | - Kazuhiko Kobayashi
- Graduate School of
Agricultural and Life Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, JP
| | - Pierre Sicard
- ACRI-HE, 260 route du Pin
Montard BP234, Sophia Antipolis, FR
| | - Sverre Solberg
- Norwegian Institute for Air
Research (NILU), Kjeller, NO
| | - Giacomo Gerosa
- Dipartimento di Matematica
e Fisica, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Brescia, IT
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19
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Swamy G, Nagendra SMS, Schlink U. Urban heat island (UHI) influence on secondary pollutant formation in a tropical humid environment. JOURNAL OF THE AIR & WASTE MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATION (1995) 2017; 67:1080-1091. [PMID: 28510489 DOI: 10.1080/10962247.2017.1325417] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
UNLABELLED The combined action of urbanization (change in land use) and increase in vehicular emissions intensifies the urban heat island (UHI) effect in many cities in the developed countries. The urban warming (UHI) enhances heat-stress-related diseases and ozone (O3) levels due to a photochemical reaction. Even though UHI intensity depends on wind speed, wind direction, and solar flux, the thermodynamic properties of surface materials can accelerate the temperature profiles at the local scale. This mechanism modifies the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) structure and mixing height in urban regions. These changes further deteriorate the local air quality. In this work, an attempt has been made to understand the interrelationship between air pollution and UHI intensity at selected urban areas located at tropical environment. The characteristics of ambient temperature profiles associated with land use changes in the different microenvironments of Chennai city were simulated using the Envi-Met model. The simulated surface 24-hr average air temperatures (11 m above the ground) for urban background and commercial and residential sites were found to be 30.81 ± 2.06, 31.51 ± 1.87, and 31.33 ± 2.1ºC, respectively. The diurnal variation of UHI intensity was determined by comparing the daytime average air temperatures to the diurnal air temperature for different wind velocity conditions. From the model simulations, we found that wind speed of 0.2 to 5 m/sec aggravates the UHI intensity. Further, the diurnal variation of mixing height was also estimated at the study locations. The estimated lowest mixing height at the residential area was found to be 60 m in the middle of night. During the same period, highest ozone (O3) concentrations were also recorded at the continuous ambient air quality monitoring station (CAAQMS) located at the residential area. IMPLICATIONS An attempt has made to study the diurnal variation of secondary pollution levels in different study regions. This paper focuses mainly on the UHI intensity variations with respect to percentage of land use pattern change in Chennai city, India. The study simulated the area-based land use pattern with local mixing height variations. The relationship between UHI intensity and mixing height provides variations on local air quality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gsnvksn Swamy
- a Department of Civil Engineering , Indian Institute of Technology Madras , Madras , India
| | - S M Shiva Nagendra
- a Department of Civil Engineering , Indian Institute of Technology Madras , Madras , India
| | - Uwe Schlink
- b Department of Urban and Environmental Sociology , Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research-UFZ , Leipzig , Germany
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20
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Schnell JL, Prather MJ. Co-occurrence of extremes in surface ozone, particulate matter, and temperature over eastern North America. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2017; 114:2854-2859. [PMID: 28242682 PMCID: PMC5358352 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1614453114] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Heat waves and air pollution episodes pose a serious threat to human health and may worsen under future climate change. In this paper, we use 15 years (1999-2013) of commensurately gridded (1° x 1°) surface observations of extended summer (April-September) surface ozone (O3), fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and maximum temperature (TX) over the eastern United States and Canada to construct a climatology of the coincidence, overlap, and lag in space and time of their extremes. Extremes of each quantity are defined climatologically at each grid cell as the 50 d with the highest values in three 5-y windows (∼95th percentile). Any two extremes occur on the same day in the same grid cell more than 50% of the time in the northeastern United States, but on a domain average, co-occurrence is approximately 30%. Although not exactly co-occurring, many of these extremes show connectedness with consistent offsets in space and in time, which often defy traditional mechanistic explanations. All three extremes occur primarily in large-scale, multiday, spatially connected episodes with scales of >1,000 km and clearly coincide with large-scale meteorological features. The largest, longest-lived episodes have the highest incidence of co-occurrence and contain extreme values well above their local 95th percentile threshold, by +7 ppb for O3, +6 µg m-3 for PM2.5, and +1.7 °C for TX. Our results demonstrate the need to evaluate these extremes as synergistic costressors to accurately quantify their impacts on human health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jordan L Schnell
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697
| | - Michael J Prather
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697
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Henneman LRF, Liu C, Mulholland JA, Russell AG. Evaluating the effectiveness of air quality regulations: A review of accountability studies and frameworks. JOURNAL OF THE AIR & WASTE MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATION (1995) 2017; 67:144-172. [PMID: 27715473 DOI: 10.1080/10962247.2016.1242518] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/18/2016] [Revised: 09/26/2016] [Accepted: 09/26/2016] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
UNLABELLED Assessments of past environmental policies-termed accountability studies-contribute important information to the decision-making process used to review the efficacy of past policies, and subsequently aid in the development of effective new policies. These studies have used a variety of methods that have achieved varying levels of success at linking improvements in air quality and/or health to regulations. The Health Effects Institute defines the air pollution accountability framework as a chain of events that includes the regulation of interest, air quality, exposure/dose, and health outcomes, and suggests that accountability research should address impacts for each of these linkages. Early accountability studies investigated short-term, local regulatory actions (for example, coal use banned city-wide on a specific date or traffic pattern changes made for Olympic Games). Recent studies assessed regulations implemented over longer time and larger spatial scales. Studies on broader scales require accountability research methods that account for effects of confounding factors that increase over time and space. Improved estimates of appropriate baseline levels (sometimes termed "counterfactual"-the expected state in a scenario without an intervention) that account for confounders and uncertainties at each link in the accountability chain will help estimate causality with greater certainty. In the direct accountability framework, researchers link outcomes with regulations using statistical methods that bypass the link-by-link approach of classical accountability. Direct accountability results and methods complement the classical approach. New studies should take advantage of advanced planning for accountability studies, new data sources (such as satellite measurements), and new statistical methods. Evaluation of new methods and data sources is necessary to improve investigations of long-term regulations, and associated uncertainty should be accounted for at each link to provide a confidence estimate of air quality regulation effectiveness. The final step in any accountability is the comparison of results with the proposed benefits of an air quality policy. IMPLICATIONS The field of air pollution accountability continues to grow in importance to a number of stakeholders. Two frameworks, the classical accountability chain and direct accountability, have been used to estimate impacts of regulatory actions, and both require careful attention to confounders and uncertainties. Researchers should continue to develop and evaluate both methods as they investigate current and future air pollution regulations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lucas R F Henneman
- a School of Civil and Environmental Engineering , Georgia Institute of Technology , Atlanta , GA , USA
| | - Cong Liu
- b School of Energy and Environment , Southeast University , Nanjing , China
| | - James A Mulholland
- a School of Civil and Environmental Engineering , Georgia Institute of Technology , Atlanta , GA , USA
| | - Armistead G Russell
- a School of Civil and Environmental Engineering , Georgia Institute of Technology , Atlanta , GA , USA
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Zhang Y, Bowden JH, Adelman Z, Naik V, Horowitz LW, Smith SJ, West JJ. Co-benefits of global and regional greenhouse gas mitigation on U.S. air quality in 2050. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 2016; 16:9533-9548. [PMID: 30245703 PMCID: PMC6150466 DOI: 10.5194/acp-16-9533-2016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Policies to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will not only slow climate change, but can also have ancillary benefits of improved air quality. Here we examine the co-benefits of both global and regional GHG mitigation on U.S. air quality in 2050 at fine resolution, using dynamical downscaling methods, building on a previous global co-benefits study (West et al., 2013). The co-benefits for U.S. air quality are quantified via two mechanisms: through reductions in co-emitted air pollutants from the same sources, and by slowing climate change and its influence on air quality, following West et al. (2013). Additionally, we separate the total co-benefits into contributions from domestic GHG mitigation versus mitigation in foreign countries. We use the WRF model to dynamically downscale future global climate to the regional scale, the SMOKE program to directly process global anthropogenic emissions into the regional domain, and we provide dynamical boundary conditions from global simulations to the regional CMAQ model. The total co-benefits of global GHG mitigation from the RCP4.5 scenario compared with its reference are estimated to be higher in the eastern U.S. (ranging from 0.6-1.0 μg m-3) than the west (0-0.4 μg m-3) for PM2.5, with an average of 0.47 μg m-3 over U.S.; for O3, the total co-benefits are more uniform at 2-5 ppb with U.S. average of 3.55 ppb. Comparing the two mechanisms of co-benefits, we find that reductions of co-emitted air pollutants have a much greater influence on both PM2.5 (96% of the total co-benefits) and O3 (89% of the total) than the second co-benefits mechanism via slowing climate change, consistent with West et al. (2013). GHG mitigation from foreign countries contributes more to the U.S. O3 reduction (76% of the total) than that from domestic GHG mitigation only (24%), highlighting the importance of global methane reductions and the intercontinental transport of air pollutants. For PM2.5, the benefits of domestic GHG control are greater (74% of total). Since foreign contributions to co-benefits can be substantial, with foreign O3 benefits much larger than those from domestic reductions, previous studies that focus on local or regional co-benefits may greatly underestimate the total co-benefits of global GHG reductions. We conclude that the U.S. can gain significantly greater domestic air quality co-benefits by engaging with other nations to control GHGs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuqiang Zhang
- Environmental Sciences and Engineering Department, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599
| | - Jared H. Bowden
- Environmental Sciences and Engineering Department, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599
| | - Zachariah Adelman
- Environmental Sciences and Engineering Department, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599
- Institute for the Environment, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599
| | - Vaishali Naik
- UCAR/NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540
| | | | - Steven J. Smith
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740
| | - J. Jason West
- Environmental Sciences and Engineering Department, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599
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Watts N, Adger WN, Agnolucci P, Blackstock J, Byass P, Cai W, Chaytor S, Colbourn T, Collins M, Cooper A, Cox PM, Depledge J, Drummond P, Ekins P, Galaz V, Grace D, Graham H, Grubb M, Haines A, Hamilton I, Hunter A, Jiang X, Li M, Kelman I, Liang L, Lott M, Lowe R, Luo Y, Mace G, Maslin M, Nilsson M, Oreszczyn T, Pye S, Quinn T, Svensdotter M, Venevsky S, Warner K, Xu B, Yang J, Yin Y, Yu C, Zhang Q, Gong P, Montgomery H, Costello A. Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health. Lancet 2015; 386:1861-914. [PMID: 26111439 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(15)60854-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 740] [Impact Index Per Article: 82.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/28/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Nick Watts
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK.
| | - W Neil Adger
- Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Paolo Agnolucci
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Jason Blackstock
- Department of Science, Technology, Engineering and Public Policy, University College London, London, UK
| | - Peter Byass
- Centre for Global Health Research, Umea University, Umea, Sweden
| | - Wenjia Cai
- Centre for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Haidian, Beijing, China
| | - Sarah Chaytor
- Public Policy, University College London, London, UK
| | - Tim Colbourn
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Mat Collins
- College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Adam Cooper
- Department of Science, Technology, Engineering and Public Policy, University College London, London, UK
| | - Peter M Cox
- College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Joanna Depledge
- Department of Politics and International Studies, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Paul Drummond
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Paul Ekins
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Victor Galaz
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Delia Grace
- International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Hilary Graham
- Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK
| | - Michael Grubb
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Andy Haines
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Ian Hamilton
- Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Alasdair Hunter
- College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Xujia Jiang
- Centre for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Haidian, Beijing, China
| | - Moxuan Li
- Centre for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Haidian, Beijing, China
| | - Ilan Kelman
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Lu Liang
- Centre for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Haidian, Beijing, China
| | - Melissa Lott
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Robert Lowe
- Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Yong Luo
- Centre for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Haidian, Beijing, China
| | - Georgina Mace
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, University College London, London, UK
| | - Mark Maslin
- Department of Geography, University College London, London, UK
| | - Maria Nilsson
- Centre for Global Health Research, Umea University, Umea, Sweden
| | | | - Steve Pye
- Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Tara Quinn
- Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - My Svensdotter
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Sergey Venevsky
- Centre for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Haidian, Beijing, China
| | - Koko Warner
- UN University Institute for Environment and Human Security, Bonn, Germany
| | - Bing Xu
- Centre for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Haidian, Beijing, China
| | - Jun Yang
- Centre for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Haidian, Beijing, China
| | - Yongyuan Yin
- Centre for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Haidian, Beijing, China
| | - Chaoqing Yu
- Centre for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Haidian, Beijing, China
| | - Qiang Zhang
- Centre for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Haidian, Beijing, China
| | - Peng Gong
- Centre for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Haidian, Beijing, China
| | - Hugh Montgomery
- Institute for Human Health and Performance, University College London, London, UK
| | - Anthony Costello
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
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Madaniyazi L, Nagashima T, Guo Y, Yu W, Tong S. Projecting Fine Particulate Matter-Related Mortality in East China. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2015; 49:11141-11150. [PMID: 26226638 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.5b01478] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
China is suffering from severe air pollution from fine particulate matter [≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5)], especially East China. But its future trends and potential health impacts remain unclear. The study objectives were to project future trends of PM2.5 and its short-term effect on mortality in East China by 2030. First, daily changes in PM2.5 concentrations between 2005 and 2030 were projected under the "current legislation" scenario (CLE) and the "maximum technically feasible reduction" scenario (MFR). Then, they were linked to six population projections, two mortality rate projections, and PM2.5-mortality associations to estimate the changes in PM2.5-related mortality in East China between 2005 and 2030. Under the CLE scenario, the annual mean PM2.5 concentration was projected to decrease by 0.62 μg/m(3) in East China, which could cause up to 124,000 additional deaths, when considering the population growth. Under the MFR scenario, the annual mean PM2.5 concentration was projected to decrease by 20.41 μg/m(3) in East China. At least 230,000 deaths could be avoided by such a large reduction in PM2.5 concentration under MFR scenario, even after accounting for the population growth. Therefore, our results suggest that reducing PM2.5 concentration substantially in East China would benefit the public health. Otherwise, it may still remain as a great health risk in the future, especially when the population keeps growing.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lina Madaniyazi
- Lina Madaniyazi, School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology , Kelvin Grove, Queensland 4059, Australia
| | - Tatsuya Nagashima
- Center for Regional Environmental Research (Regional Atmospheric Modeling Section), National Institute for Environmental Studies , 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
| | - Yuming Guo
- School of Public Health, University of Queensland , Herston, Queensland 4006, Australia
| | - Weiwei Yu
- School of Public Health, University of Queensland , Herston, Queensland 4006, Australia
| | - Shilu Tong
- Lina Madaniyazi, School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology , Kelvin Grove, Queensland 4059, Australia
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Pusede SE, Steiner AL, Cohen RC. Temperature and recent trends in the chemistry of continental surface ozone. Chem Rev 2015; 115:3898-918. [PMID: 25950502 DOI: 10.1021/cr5006815] [Citation(s) in RCA: 67] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Affiliation(s)
| | - Allison L Steiner
- §Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109, United States
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Rudokas J, Miller PJ, Trail MA, Russell AG. Regional air quality management aspects of climate change: impact of climate mitigation options on regional air emissions. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2015; 49:5170-5177. [PMID: 25803240 DOI: 10.1021/es505159z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
We investigate the projected impact of six climate mitigation scenarios on U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOX) associated with energy use in major sectors of the U.S. economy (commercial, residential, industrial, electricity generation, and transportation). We use the EPA U.S. 9-region national database with the MARKet Allocation energy system model to project emissions changes over the 2005 to 2050 time frame. The modeled scenarios are two carbon tax, two low carbon transportation, and two biomass fuel choice scenarios. In the lower carbon tax and both biomass fuel choice scenarios, SO2 and NOX achieve reductions largely through pre-existing rules and policies, with only relatively modest additional changes occurring from the climate mitigation measures. The higher carbon tax scenario projects greater declines in CO2 and SO2 relative to the 2050 reference case, but electricity sector NOX increases. This is a result of reduced investments in power plant NOX controls in earlier years in anticipation of accelerated coal power plant retirements, energy penalties associated with carbon capture systems, and shifting of NOX emissions in later years from power plants subject to a regional NOX cap to those in regions not subject to the cap.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jason Rudokas
- †Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management, Boston, Massachusetts 02111, United States
| | - Paul J Miller
- †Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management, Boston, Massachusetts 02111, United States
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Trail MA, Tsimpidi AP, Liu P, Tsigaridis K, Hu Y, Rudokas JR, Miller PJ, Nenes A, Russell AG. Impacts of potential CO2-reduction policies on air quality in the United States. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2015; 49:5133-5141. [PMID: 25811418 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.5b00473] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Impacts of emissions changes from four potential U.S. CO2 emission reduction policies on 2050 air quality are analyzed using the community multiscale air quality model (CMAQ). Future meteorology was downscaled from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE General Circulation Model (GCM) to the regional scale using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model. We use emissions growth factors from the EPAUS9r MARKAL model to project emissions inventories for two climate tax scenarios, a combined transportation and energy scenario, a biomass energy scenario and a reference case. Implementation of a relatively aggressive carbon tax leads to improved PM2.5 air quality compared to the reference case as incentives increase for facilities to install flue-gas desulfurization (FGD) and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. However, less capital is available to install NOX reduction technologies, resulting in an O3 increase. A policy aimed at reducing CO2 from the transportation sector and electricity production sectors leads to reduced emissions of mobile source NOX, thus reducing O3. Over most of the U.S., this scenario leads to reduced PM2.5 concentrations. However, increased primary PM2.5 emissions associated with fuel switching in the residential and industrial sectors leads to increased organic matter (OM) and PM2.5 in some cities.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Peng Liu
- ‡School of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia 30332, United States
| | - Kostas Tsigaridis
- §Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, New York 10025, United States
- ⊥NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York 10025, United States
| | | | - Jason R Rudokas
- ∥Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management, Boston, Massachusetts 02111, United States
| | - Paul J Miller
- ∥Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management, Boston, Massachusetts 02111, United States
| | - Athanasios Nenes
- ‡School of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia 30332, United States
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Madaniyazi L, Guo Y, Yu W, Tong S. Projecting future air pollution-related mortality under a changing climate: progress, uncertainties and research needs. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2015; 75:21-32. [PMID: 25461412 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2014.10.018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/17/2014] [Revised: 10/23/2014] [Accepted: 10/24/2014] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Climate change may affect mortality associated with air pollutants, especially for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3). Projection studies of such kind involve complicated modelling approaches with uncertainties. OBJECTIVES We conducted a systematic review of researches and methods for projecting future PM2.5-/O3-related mortality to identify the uncertainties and optimal approaches for handling uncertainty. METHODS A literature search was conducted in October 2013, using the electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 to September 2013. DISCUSSION Fifteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most studies reported that an increase of climate change-induced PM2.5 and O3 may result in an increase in mortality. However, little research has been conducted in developing countries with high emissions and dense populations. Additionally, health effects induced by PM2.5 may dominate compared to those caused by O3, but projection studies of PM2.5-related mortality are fewer than those of O3-related mortality. There is a considerable variation in approaches of scenario-based projection researches, which makes it difficult to compare results. Multiple scenarios, models and downscaling methods have been used to reduce uncertainties. However, few studies have discussed what the main source of uncertainties is and which uncertainty could be most effectively reduced. CONCLUSIONS Projecting air pollution-related mortality requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will significantly aid policymakers in efforts to manage potential impacts of PM2.5 and O3 on mortality in the context of climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lina Madaniyazi
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, 10 Kelvin Grove, QLD 4059, Australia.
| | - Yuming Guo
- School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Herston QLD 4006, Australia.
| | - Weiwei Yu
- School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Herston QLD 4006, Australia.
| | - Shilu Tong
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, QLD 4059, Australia.
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Kim YM, Zhou Y, Gao Y, Fu JS, Johnson BA, Huang C, Liu Y. Spatially resolved estimation of ozone-related mortality in the United States under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their uncertainty. CLIMATIC CHANGE 2015; 128:71-84. [PMID: 25530644 PMCID: PMC4267285 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1290-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
The spatial pattern of the uncertainty in air pollution-related health impacts due to climate change has rarely been studied due to the lack of high-resolution model simulations, especially under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the latest greenhouse gas emission pathways. We estimated future tropospheric ozone (O3) and related excess mortality and evaluated the associated uncertainties in the continental United States under RCPs. Based on dynamically downscaled climate model simulations, we calculated changes in O3 level at 12 km resolution between the future (2057-2059) and base years (2001-2004) under a low-to-medium emission scenario (RCP4.5) and a fossil fuel intensive emission scenario (RCP8.5). We then estimated the excess mortality attributable to changes in O3. Finally, we analyzed the sensitivity of the excess mortality estimates to the input variables and the uncertainty in the excess mortality estimation using Monte Carlo simulations. O3-related premature deaths in the continental U.S. were estimated to be 1,312 deaths/year under RCP8.5 (95% confidence interval (CI): 427 to 2,198) and -2,118 deaths/year under RCP4.5 (95% CI: -3,021 to -1,216), when allowing for climate change and emissions reduction. The uncertainty of O3-related excess mortality estimates was mainly caused by RCP emissions pathways. Excess mortality estimates attributable to the combined effect of climate and emission changes on O3 as well as the associated uncertainties vary substantially in space and so do the most influential input variables. Spatially resolved data is crucial to develop effective community level mitigation and adaptation policy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Young-Min Kim
- Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Rd. NE, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Ying Zhou
- Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Rd. NE, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Yang Gao
- Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 902 Battelle Blvd, Richland, Washington, USA
| | - Joshua S. Fu
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Tennessee, 325 John D. Tickle Building, Knoxville, Tennessee, USA
| | - Brent A. Johnson
- Department of Biostatistics and Computational Biology, University of Rochester, 601 Elmwood Ave. Box 630, Rochester, NY, USA
| | - Cheng Huang
- Department of Global Health and Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, 950 New Hampshire Ave, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Yang Liu
- Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Rd. NE, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
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31
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Wilson A, Rappold AG, Neas LM, Reich BJ. Modeling the effect of temperature on ozone-related mortality. Ann Appl Stat 2014. [DOI: 10.1214/14-aoas754] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
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Megaritis AG, Murphy BN, Racherla PN, Adams PJ, Pandis SN. Impact of climate change on mercury concentrations and deposition in the eastern United States. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2014; 487:299-312. [PMID: 24793327 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.03.084] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/26/2013] [Revised: 03/08/2014] [Accepted: 03/18/2014] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
The global-regional climate-air pollution modeling system (GRE-CAPS) was applied over the eastern United States to study the impact of climate change on the concentration and deposition of atmospheric mercury. Summer and winter periods (300 days for each) were simulated, and the present-day model predictions (2000s) were compared to the future ones (2050s) assuming constant emissions. Climate change affects Hg(2+) concentrations in both periods. On average, atmospheric Hg(2+) levels are predicted to increase in the future by 3% in summer and 5% in winter respectively due to enhanced oxidation of Hg(0) under higher temperatures. The predicted concentration change of Hg(2+) was found to vary significantly in space due to regional-scale changes in precipitation, ranging from -30% to 30% during summer and -20% to 40% during winter. Particulate mercury, Hg(p) has a similar spatial response to climate change as Hg(2+), while Hg(0) levels are not predicted to change significantly. In both periods, the response of mercury deposition to climate change varies spatially with an average predicted increase of 6% during summer and 4% during winter. During summer, deposition increases are predicted mostly in the western parts of the domain while mercury deposition is predicted to decrease in the Northeast and also in many areas in the Midwest and Southeast. During winter mercury deposition is predicted to change from -30% to 50% mainly due to the changes in rainfall and the corresponding changes in wet deposition.
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Affiliation(s)
- Athanasios G Megaritis
- Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Patras, 26500 Patras, Greece; Institute of Chemical Engineering Sciences, Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas (ICEHT/FORTH), 26504 Patras, Greece
| | - Benjamin N Murphy
- Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM), Stockholm University, 11418 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Pavan N Racherla
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA
| | - Peter J Adams
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA; Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA
| | - Spyros N Pandis
- Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Patras, 26500 Patras, Greece; Institute of Chemical Engineering Sciences, Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas (ICEHT/FORTH), 26504 Patras, Greece; Department of Chemical Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA.
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Sujaritpong S, Dear K, Cope M, Walsh S, Kjellstrom T. Quantifying the health impacts of air pollution under a changing climate-a review of approaches and methodology. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2014; 58:149-60. [PMID: 23354423 PMCID: PMC3936128 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-012-0625-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2012] [Revised: 12/08/2012] [Accepted: 12/20/2012] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
Climate change has been predicted to affect future air quality, with inevitable consequences for health. Quantifying the health effects of air pollution under a changing climate is crucial to provide evidence for actions to safeguard future populations. In this paper, we review published methods for quantifying health impacts to identify optimal approaches and ways in which existing challenges facing this line of research can be addressed. Most studies have employed a simplified methodology, while only a few have reported sensitivity analyses to assess sources of uncertainty. The limited investigations that do exist suggest that examining the health risk estimates should particularly take into account the uncertainty associated with future air pollution emissions scenarios, concentration-response functions, and future population growth and age structures. Knowledge gaps identified for future research include future health impacts from extreme air pollution events, interactions between temperature and air pollution effects on public health under a changing climate, and how population adaptation and behavioural changes in a warmer climate may modify exposure to air pollution and health consequences.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarunya Sujaritpong
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Canberra, ACT, Australia,
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Zhang Y, Karamchandani P, Glotfelty T, Streets DG, Grell G, Nenes A, Yu F, Bennartz R. Development and initial application of the global-through-urban weather research and forecasting model with chemistry (GU-WRF/Chem). ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/2012jd017966] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Avise J, Abraham RG, Chung SH, Chen J, Lamb B, Salathé EP, Zhang Y, Nolte CG, Loughlin DH, Guenther A, Wiedinmyer C, Duhl T. Evaluating the effects of climate change on summertime ozone using a relative response factor approach for policymakers. JOURNAL OF THE AIR & WASTE MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATION (1995) 2012; 62:1061-1074. [PMID: 23019820 DOI: 10.1080/10962247.2012.696531] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
UNLABELLED The impact of climate change on surface-level ozone is examined through a multiscale modeling effort that linked global and regional climate models to drive air quality model simulations. Results are quantified in terms of the relative response factor (RRF(E)), which estimates the relative change in peak ozone concentration for a given change in pollutant emissions (the subscript E is added to RRF to remind the reader that the RRF is due to emission changes only). A matrix of model simulations was conducted to examine the individual and combined effects offuture anthropogenic emissions, biogenic emissions, and climate on the RRF(E). For each member in the matrix of simulations the warmest and coolest summers were modeled for the present-day (1995-2004) and future (2045-2054) decades. A climate adjustment factor (CAF(C) or CAF(CB) when biogenic emissions are allowed to change with the future climate) was defined as the ratio of the average daily maximum 8-hr ozone simulated under a future climate to that simulated under the present-day climate, and a climate-adjusted RRF(EC) was calculated (RRF(EC) = RRF(E) x CAF(C)). In general, RRF(EC) > RRF(E), which suggests additional emission controls will be required to achieve the same reduction in ozone that would have been achieved in the absence of climate change. Changes in biogenic emissions generally have a smaller impact on the RRF(E) than does future climate change itself The direction of the biogenic effect appears closely linked to organic-nitrate chemistry and whether ozone formation is limited by volatile organic compounds (VOC) or oxides of nitrogen (NO(x) = NO + NO2). Regions that are generally NO(x) limited show a decrease in ozone and RRF(EC), while VOC-limited regions show an increase in ozone and RRF(EC). Comparing results to a previous study using different climate assumptions and models showed large variability in the CAF(CB). IMPLICATIONS We present a methodology for adjusting the RRF to account for the influence of climate change on ozone. The findings of this work suggest that in some geographic regions, climate change has the potential to negate decreases in surface ozone concentrations that would otherwise be achieved through ozone mitigation strategies. In regions of high biogenic VOC emissions relative to anthropogenic NO(x) emissions, the impact of climate change is somewhat reduced, while the opposite is true in regions of high anthropogenic NO(x) emissions relative to biogenic VOC emissions. Further, different future climate realizations are shown to impact ozone in different ways.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jeremy Avise
- Laboratory for Atmospheric Research, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164, USA
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Fiore AM, Naik V, Spracklen DV, Steiner A, Unger N, Prather M, Bergmann D, Cameron-Smith PJ, Cionni I, Collins WJ, Dalsøren S, Eyring V, Folberth GA, Ginoux P, Horowitz LW, Josse B, Lamarque JF, MacKenzie IA, Nagashima T, O'Connor FM, Righi M, Rumbold ST, Shindell DT, Skeie RB, Sudo K, Szopa S, Takemura T, Zeng G. Global air quality and climate. Chem Soc Rev 2012; 41:6663-83. [PMID: 22868337 DOI: 10.1039/c2cs35095e] [Citation(s) in RCA: 114] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Abstract
Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH(4)), ozone precursors (O(3)), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O(3) precursor CH(4) would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH(4) and tropospheric O(3). Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NO(x)) emissions, which increase tropospheric O(3) (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH(4) (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH(4) volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O(3) and CH(4). Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O(3) and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios assume uniformly an aggressive reduction, of air pollutant emissions. New estimates from the current generation of chemistry-climate models with RCP emissions thus project improved air quality over the next century relative to those using the IPCC SRES scenarios. These two sets of projections likely bracket possible futures. We find that uncertainty in emission-driven changes in air quality is generally greater than uncertainty in climate-driven changes. Confidence in air quality projections is limited by the reliability of anthropogenic emission trajectories and the uncertainties in regional climate responses, feedbacks with the terrestrial biosphere, and oxidation pathways affecting O(3) and SOA.
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Affiliation(s)
- Arlene M Fiore
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA.
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Liao KJ, Amar P, Tagaris E, Russell AG. Development of risk-based air quality management strategies under impacts of climate change. JOURNAL OF THE AIR & WASTE MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATION (1995) 2012; 62:557-565. [PMID: 22696805 DOI: 10.1080/10962247.2012.662928] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
UNLABELLED Climate change is forecast to adversely affect air quality through perturbations in meteorological conditions, photochemical reactions, and precursor emissions. To protect the environment and human health from air pollution, there is an increasing recognition of the necessity of developing effective air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change. This paper presents a framework for developing risk-based air quality management strategies that can help policy makers improve their decision-making processes in response to current and future climate change about 30-50 years from now. Development of air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process involving four steps: (1) assessment of the impacts of climate change and associated uncertainties; (2) determination of air quality targets; (3) selections of potential air quality management options; and (4) identification of preferred air quality management strategies that minimize control costs, maximize benefits, or limit the adverse effects of climate change on air quality when considering the scarcity of resources. The main challenge relates to the level of uncertainties associated with climate change forecasts and advancements in future control measures, since they will significantly affect the risk assessment results and development of effective air quality management plans. The concept presented in this paper can help decision makers make appropriate responses to climate change, since it provides an integrated approach for climate risk assessment and management when developing air quality management strategies. IMPLICATIONS Development of climate-responsive air quality management strategies is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process. The risk assessment process includes quantification of climate change impacts on air quality and associated uncertainties. Risk management for air quality under the impacts of climate change includes determination of air quality targets, selections of potential management options, and identification of effective air quality management strategies through decision-making models. The risk-based decision-making framework can also be applied to develop climate-responsive management strategies for the other environmental dimensions and assess costs and benefits of future environmental management policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kuo-Jen Liao
- Department of Environmental Engineering, Texas A&M University-Kingsville, Kingsville, TX, USA.
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38
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Katragkou E, Zanis P, Kioutsioukis I, Tegoulias I, Melas D, Krüger BC, Coppola E. Future climate change impacts on summer surface ozone from regional climate-air quality simulations over Europe. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2011. [DOI: 10.1029/2011jd015899] [Citation(s) in RCA: 63] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- E. Katragkou
- Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, School of Physics; Aristotle University of Thessaloniki; Thessaloniki Greece
- Department of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Geology; Aristotle University of Thessaloniki; Thessaloniki Greece
| | - P. Zanis
- Department of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Geology; Aristotle University of Thessaloniki; Thessaloniki Greece
| | - I. Kioutsioukis
- Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, School of Physics; Aristotle University of Thessaloniki; Thessaloniki Greece
| | - I. Tegoulias
- Department of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Geology; Aristotle University of Thessaloniki; Thessaloniki Greece
| | - D. Melas
- Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, School of Physics; Aristotle University of Thessaloniki; Thessaloniki Greece
| | - B. C. Krüger
- Institute of Meteorology; University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences; Vienna Austria
| | - E. Coppola
- International Centre for Theoretical Physics; Trieste Italy
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Fang Y, Fiore AM, Horowitz LW, Gnanadesikan A, Held I, Chen G, Vecchi G, Levy H. The impacts of changing transport and precipitation on pollutant distributions in a future climate. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2011. [DOI: 10.1029/2011jd015642] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Thishan Dharshana KG, Kravtsov S, Kahl JDW. Relationship between synoptic weather disturbances and particulate matter air pollution over the United States. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2010. [DOI: 10.1029/2010jd014852] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- K. G. Thishan Dharshana
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Atmospheric Science Group; University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee; Milwaukee Wisconsin USA
| | - Sergey Kravtsov
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Atmospheric Science Group; University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee; Milwaukee Wisconsin USA
| | - Jonathan D. W. Kahl
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Atmospheric Science Group; University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee; Milwaukee Wisconsin USA
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Sensitivity of air pollution-induced premature mortality to precursor emissions under the influence of climate change. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2010; 7:2222-37. [PMID: 20623021 PMCID: PMC2898046 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph7052222] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2010] [Revised: 04/23/2010] [Accepted: 04/29/2010] [Indexed: 01/24/2023]
Abstract
The relative contributions of PM(2.5) and ozone precursor emissions to air pollution-related premature mortality modulated by climate change are estimated for the U.S. using sensitivities of air pollutants to precursor emissions and health outcomes for 2001 and 2050. Result suggests that states with high emission rates and significant premature mortality increases induced by PM(2.5) will substantially benefit in the future from SO(2), anthropogenic NO(X) and NH(3) emissions reductions while states with premature mortality increases induced by O(3) will benefit mainly from anthropogenic NO(X) emissions reduction. Much of the increase in premature mortality expected from climate change-induced pollutant increases can be offset by targeting a specific precursor emission in most states based on the modeling approach followed here.
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Tagaris E, Liao KJ, Delucia AJ, Deck L, Amar P, Russell AG. Potential impact of climate change on air pollution-related human health effects. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2009; 43:4979-4988. [PMID: 19673295 DOI: 10.1021/es803650w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
The potential health impact of ambient ozone and PM2.5 concentrations modulated by climate change over the United States is investigated using combined atmospheric and health modeling. Regional air quality modeling for 2001 and 2050 was conducted using CMAQ Modeling System with meteorology from the GISS Global Climate Model, downscaled regionally using MM5,keeping boundary conditions of air pollutants, emission sources, population, activity levels, and pollution controls constant. BenMap was employed to estimate the air pollution health outcomes at the county, state, and national level for 2050 caused by the effect of meteorology on future ozone and PM2.5 concentrations. The changes in calculated annual mean PM2.5 concentrations show a relatively modest change with positive and negative responses (increasing PM2.5 levels across the northeastern U.S.) although average ozone levels slightly decrease across the northern sections of the U.S., and increase across the southern tier. Results suggest that climate change driven air quality-related health effects will be adversely affected in more then 2/3 of the continental U.S. Changes in health effects induced by PM2.5 dominate compared to those caused by ozone. PM2.5-induced premature mortality is about 15 times higher then that due to ozone. Nationally the analysis suggests approximately 4000 additional annual premature deaths due to climate change impacts on PM2.5 vs 300 due to climate change-induced ozone changes. However, the impacts vary spatially. Increased premature mortality due to elevated ozone concentrations will be offset by lower mortality from reductions in PM2.5 in 11 states. Uncertainties related to different emissions projections used to simulate future climate, and the uncertainties forecasting the meteorology, are large although there are potentially important unaddressed uncertainties (e.g., downscaling, speciation, interaction, exposure, and concentration-response function of the human health studies).
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Affiliation(s)
- Efthimios Tagaris
- School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
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Kelly VR, Weathers KC, Lovett GM, Likens GE. Effect of climate change between 1984 and 2007 on precipitation chemistry at a site in northeastern U.S.A. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2009; 43:3461-3466. [PMID: 19544840 DOI: 10.1021/es8033473] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Climate change predictions for the northeastern US call for an increase in tropical storms and a decrease in extra tropical cyclones including continental storms. We ran 24-h back trajectories for each precipitation event that occurred at the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies in southeastern New York, U.S.A. from 1984 to 2007 and analyzed precipitation chemistry as well as air mass position 24 h prior to the onset of each precipitation event. The results showed an increase in marine precipitation and a slight but statistically insignificant decrease in continental precipitation during the 1984-2007 period. The chemistry of precipitation from the two directions was quite different marine storms were higher in Na4 and Cl- but lower in solutes associated with acid precipitation (H+, SO4(2-), NO3-, and NH4+). Annual mean concentrations of acid precipitation solutes declined for storms from both directions during the period. We used a simple mixing model based on the current rates of increase and decrease of marine and continental precipitation respectively to show that chemical changes in precipitation resulting from the shift in storm tracks are small compared to chemical changes due to emissions reductions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Victoria R Kelly
- Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Box AB, Millbrook, New York 12545, USA.
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Ito A, Sillman S, Penner JE. Global chemical transport model study of ozone response to changes in chemical kinetics and biogenic volatile organic compounds emissions due to increasing temperatures: Sensitivities to isoprene nitrate chemistry and grid resolution. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2009. [DOI: 10.1029/2008jd011254] [Citation(s) in RCA: 68] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Dawson JP, Racherla PN, Lynn BH, Adams PJ, Pandis SN. Impacts of climate change on regional and urban air quality in the eastern United States: Role of meteorology. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2009. [DOI: 10.1029/2008jd009849] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Racherla PN, Adams PJ. U.S. ozone air quality under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2009; 43:571-577. [PMID: 19244985 DOI: 10.1021/es800854f] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
We examined future ozone (O3) air quality in the United States (U.S.) under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions worldwide by performing global climate-chemistry simulations, utilizing various combinations of present (1990s) and future (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 2050s) climates, and present and future (2050s; IPCC SRES A2 and B1) anthropogenic emissions. The A2 climate scenario is employed here because it lies at the upper extreme of projected climate change for the 21st century. To examine the sensitivity of U.S. O3 to regional emissions increases (decreases), the IPCC SRES A2 and B1 scenarios, which have overall higher and lower O3-precursor emissions for the U.S., respectively, have been chosen. We find that climate change, by itself, significantly worsens the severity and frequency of high-O3 events ("episodes") over most locations in the U.S., with relatively small changes in average O3 air quality. These high-O3 increases due to climate change alone will erode moderately the gains made under a U.S. emissions reduction scenario (e.g., B1). The effect of climate change on high- and average-O3 increases with anthropogenic emissions. Insofar as average O3 air quality is concerned, changes in U.S. anthropogenic emissions will play the most important role in attaining (or not) near-term U.S. O3 air quality standards. However, policy makers must plan appropriately for O3 background increases due to projected increases in global CH4 abundance and non-U.S. anthropogenic emissions, as well as potential local enhancements that they could cause. These findings provide strong incentives for more-than-planned emissions reductions at locations that are currently O3-nonattainment.
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Pye HOT, Liao H, Wu S, Mickley LJ, Jacob DJ, Henze DK, Seinfeld JH. Effect of changes in climate and emissions on future sulfate-nitrate-ammonium aerosol levels in the United States. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2009. [DOI: 10.1029/2008jd010701] [Citation(s) in RCA: 271] [Impact Index Per Article: 18.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- H. O. T. Pye
- Department of Chemical Engineering; California Institute of Technology; Pasadena California USA
| | - H. Liao
- State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Beijing China
| | - S. Wu
- School of Engineering and Applied Sciences and Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences; Harvard University; Cambridge Massachusetts USA
| | - L. J. Mickley
- School of Engineering and Applied Sciences and Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences; Harvard University; Cambridge Massachusetts USA
| | - D. J. Jacob
- School of Engineering and Applied Sciences and Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences; Harvard University; Cambridge Massachusetts USA
| | - D. K. Henze
- Earth Institute; Columbia University; New York New York USA
| | - J. H. Seinfeld
- Department of Chemical Engineering; California Institute of Technology; Pasadena California USA
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Zhang Y, Hu XM, Leung LR, Gustafson WI. Impacts of regional climate change on biogenic emissions and air quality. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2008. [DOI: 10.1029/2008jd009965] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Nolte CG, Gilliland AB, Hogrefe C, Mickley LJ. Linking global to regional models to assess future climate impacts on surface ozone levels in the United States. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2008. [DOI: 10.1029/2007jd008497] [Citation(s) in RCA: 92] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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