Proximal predictors of gun violence among adolescent males involved in crime

A Review of Community-Based Gun Violence Prevention Programs and the Physician's Role

Gun violence (GV) and safety is a contentious topic in the United States, despite increasing morbidity and mortality among children and adolescents. It is important for physicians to take a role in preventing future GV. This article aims to present several methods that physicians can use to prevent GV in their own communities, ranging from implementation of large-scale intervention programs to simple screenings and anticipatory guidance. As the problem of GV persists, it is important for physicians to use their role to identify individuals who are at high-risk and advocate for changes that will benefit their future health.

Sleep duration, sleep quality, and weapon carrying in a sample of adolescents from Texas

Objectives

Studies are beginning to document an association between sleep duration and a range of adolescent delinquent behaviors, including weapon carrying. However, little is known about whether and to what extent sleep quality - another dimension of sleep for healthy adolescent functioning - is associated with weapon carrying. We address this gap in knowledge by evaluating the role of restless sleep and sleep duration in adolescent weapon carrying.

Methods

We analyze data from a diverse sample of 994 adolescents from Texas, USA collected in 2010. Multivariate logistic regression models estimate the association of sleep duration and restless sleep on weapon carrying after controlling for theoretical covariates and demographic characteristics.

Results

Adolescents sleeping 4 h or less on school nights were more than twice as likely to report carrying a weapon (OR = 2.38, 95% CI = 1.16-4.89, p =.018). Sleeping 5-6 h was associated with higher odds of carrying a weapon, while 6-7 h and 8 or more hours were associated with lower odds; however, all associations were non-significant. Restless sleep was associated with weapon carrying at the bivariate level (Pearson χ2 (3) = 10.56, p =.014), but not at the multivariate (OR = 1.10, 95% CI = 0.91-1.32, p =.299).

Conclusions

Our findings align with previous research demonstrating that sleeping 4 or less hours increases the likelihood of adolescent weapon carrying. Restless sleep appears to play less of a role. Future research should elucidate the longitudinal pathways between sleep duration, sleep quality, and forms of adolescent weapon carrying.

Examining risky firearm behaviors among high-risk gun carriers in New York City

Precarious firearm conduct among inexperienced gun possessors has the potential to intensify firearm-related fatalities and injuries. The current study involves face-to-face interviews with 51 high-risk (and prohibited) residents of Brooklyn and the Bronx, NY, each of whom have either been shot or shot at. We analyze study participants' lived experiences regarding urban gun violence (including as victims and perpetrators), firearm handling, sharing, and improper storage. Despite claiming to be knowledgeable about firearm fundamentals, the vast majority of respondents acknowledged never having received professional instruction, but rather "figured it out" by "playing around" with available guns. These informal methods were shaped by respondents' desire to arm themselves despite inadequate access to firearm training. Study participants also described routinely stashing firearms in unsecure, easily accessible locations. Our study findings have important implications for informing community-based harm reduction and safety strategies among persons within high-risk networks.

City-Wide Firearm Violence Spikes in Minneapolis following the Murder of George Floyd: A Comparative Time-Series Analysis of Three Cities

This study investigates the aftermath of a high-profile violent police incident as it relates to city-wide firearm violence. Utilizing two Midwest cities (Kansas City, Missouri and Omaha, Nebraska) as comparison cities, we assess whether violent firearm incidents increased in Minneapolis after the murder of George Floyd. Multiple interrupted time-series analyses showed statistically significant increases in weekly firearm incidents in Minneapolis (AME = 10.63, p < 0.05) and Omaha (AME = 1.47, p < 0.5) following the murder of George Floyd. No significant results were found in Kansas City. Similar relationships were found when examining monthly firearm incidents. The firearm spike in Minneapolis thus represents an approximate 10-fold increase in weekly firearm incidents relative to that observed in Omaha. We conclude, therefore, that the murder of George Floyd was associated with a substantially greater increase in firearm violence in Minneapolis than in the two comparison cities. Police training to reduce police violence and public health approaches to reduce urban firearm violence will alleviate the social and economic impacts of violence on federal and state governments.

A Within-Individual Examination of the Predictors of Gun Carrying During Adolescence and Young Adulthood Among Young Men

Although prior studies have identified several risk factors for gun carrying, no prior longitudinal studies have examined a comprehensive set of explanatory factors together in within-individual change models or examined whether the predictors of gun carrying change across adolescence and early young adulthood. The present study fills these gaps by examining the predictive utility of several risk factors for gun carrying, and by examining whether any of the associations vary by age. The sample included 1216 young men who were arrested for the first time during adolescence (approximately 15 years old) and interviewed regularly for 5 years (until approximately 20 years old) after the first arrest. The outcome was youth-self-reported gun carrying and the risk factors included several variables consistent with various explanations for gun carrying (psychosocial maturity deficits; antisocial behavioral style; socialization; victimization). Research questions were addressed with fixed effects dynamic panel models (within-individual change models). Results showed that the most robust predictors of gun carrying were increased exposure to guns and gun-related violence and increased engagement in other antisocial and illegal behavior. The results emphasize the specific etiology of gun carrying and the potential social contagion effect of gun-related events. Overall, the study points to the need for prevention and intervention programs to specifically target the reduction of the real and perceived prevalence of gun-related events in young men's lives.

Good Lives Model: Importance of Interagency Collaboration in Preventing Violent Recidivism

Violence is a complex and multifaceted problem requiring a holistic and individualized response. The Good Lives Model (GLM) suggests violence occurs when an individual experiences internal and external obstacles in the pursuit of universal human needs (termed primary goods). With a twin focus, GLM-consistent interventions aim to promote attainment of primary goods, whilst simultaneously reducing risk of reoffending. This is achieved by improving an individuals’ internal (i.e., skills and abilities) and external capacities (i.e., opportunities, environments, and resources). This paper proposes that collaborations between different agencies (e.g., psychological services, criminal justice systems, social services, education, community organizations, and healthcare) can support the attainment of primary goods through the provision of specialized skills and resources. Recommendations for ensuring interagency collaborations are effective are outlined, including embedding a project lead, regular interagency meetings and training, establishing information sharing procedures, and defining the role each agency plays in client care.

Risk and Protective Factors for Gun Violence in Male Juvenile Offenders

OBJECTIVE

To examine several risk and protective factors as predictors of future gun violence among male juvenile offenders.

METHOD

Data came from a longitudinal cohort of 1,170 male juvenile offenders (42.1% Black; 34.0% Latino; 19.2% White) ages 14-19 who were adjudicated for a serious offense. Interviews were conducted with participants every 6 months for 3 years and then annually for 4 years. The outcome was self-reported gun violence assessed at each follow-up. The time-lagged predictors included several self-reported risk factors (i.e., gun carrying, non-gun violence, drug dealing, heavy drinking, poor impulse control, rewards for crime, peer gun carrying, peer non-gun delinquency, gang membership) and protective factors (i.e., concern for others, expectations, and aspirations for work/family, religious beliefs, adult social supports). The data were analyzed using generalized estimating equation models.

RESULTS

There were 266 participants who reported engaging in gun violence at one or more assessments. Gun carrying was a significant predictor of future gun violence; however, nearly half (49%) of the juveniles who reported gun carrying across the repeated assessments did not report engaging in gun violence. Besides gun carrying, several risk (i.e., drug dealing, heavy drinking, rewards for crime, gang membership, peer gun carrying) and protective (i.e., concern for others, aspirations for work/family, religious beliefs, adult social supports) factors significantly predicted gun violence, after controlling for their co-occurrence (Risk factor odds ratios = 1.18-1.50; Protective factor odds ratios =.44-.87; ps<.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Interventions designed to prevent gun violence among juvenile offenders should reduce targeted risk factors, while strengthening protective factors that may offset these risks.

Special Section Introduction: Revitalizing Developmental Research on Adolescent Gun Involvement

Although firearm violence is universally recognized as a paramount public health problem in the United States, for nearly two decades a Congressional budget amendment prevented federal agencies from funding research aimed at understanding the antecedents and consequences of gun violence. These restrictions have been lifted in recent years; however, the field is struggling to overcome a considerable lapse in developmentally-informed longitudinal research on adolescent gun involvement. Some key areas in need of further investigation include: (a) examining developmental and gender differences in risk factors for adolescent gun carrying, (b) clarifying the mechanisms through which socio-economic disadvantage confers risk for engaging in adolescent gun violence, (c) identifying proximal risk and protective factors that are associated with engagement in adolescent gun violence among high risk youth, and (d) delineating the unique effect the exposure to gun violence has on adolescents' emotional and behavioral problems. This special section was organized in an attempt to revitalize research on these issues using a diverse array of longitudinal data sets consisting of both epidemiological and juvenile justice samples. Collectively, the findings from these studies are based upon repeated assessments conducted from childhood through early adulthood, making this set of papers uniquely positioned to advance our understanding of adolescent gun involvement from a developmental perspective.

Association of Firearm Access, Use, and Victimization During Adolescence With Firearm Perpetration During Adulthood in a 16-Year Longitudinal Study of Youth Involved in the Juvenile Justice System

IMPORTANCE

Preventing firearm violence requires understanding its antecedents. Yet no comprehensive longitudinal study has examined how involvement with firearms during adolescence-use, access, and victimization (defined as threatened with a weapon or gunshot injury)-is associated with the perpetration of firearm violence in adulthood.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between firearm involvement during adolescence and subsequent firearm perpetration and ownership in adulthood among youth involved in the juvenile justice system.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study analyzed interview responses of 1829 randomly selected participants as part of the Northwestern Juvenile Project, a longitudinal study of health needs and outcomes of youth sampled from a temporary juvenile detention center in a large US city. Youth aged 10 to 18 years were interviewed in detention from November 1995 through June 1998. Participants were reinterviewed up to 13 times over 16 years through February 2015, for a total of 17 776 interviews. The sample was stratified by sex, race/ethnicity, age, and legal status (juvenile or adult court). Data were analyzed from April 2017, when data preparation began, through November 2020.

EXPOSURES

Firearm involvement during adolescence: use (ie, threaten, shoot), access (ownership, ease of access, firearm in household, membership in gang that carries firearms), and victimization (gunshot injury, threatened with a weapon).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Firearm involvement during adulthood: perpetration of firearm violence (ie, threatening with or using a firearm) and firearm ownership.

RESULTS

Among the 1829 participants, 1388 had a 16-year follow-up interview: 860 males, 528 females; 809 were African American, 203 were non-Hispanic White; 374 were Hispanic; and 2 were other race/ethnicity; median (interquartile range) age of 32 (30-32) years. Eighty-five percent of males and 63.2% of females were involved with firearms as adolescents. Compared with females, males had significantly higher odds of every type of involvement except having a firearm in the home. In adulthood, 41.3% of males and 10.5% of females perpetrated firearm violence. Adolescents who had been threatened with a weapon or injured by firearms had 3.1 (95% CI, 2.0-4.9) and 2.4 (95% CI, 1.2-4.9) times the odds of perpetrating violence during adulthood. Similar associations were found for firearm ownership.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Involvement with firearms during adolescence-including victimization-is a significant risk factor for firearm perpetration and ownership during adulthood.

Sleep duration, handgun carrying, and taking a handgun to school: an analysis of a statewide sample of Florida youth

OBJECTIVES

To investigate whether sleep duration is associated with adolescent handgun carrying behaviors.

DESIGN

The Florida Youth Substance Abuse Survey (FYSAS) is a cross-sectional study of adolescents.

SETTING

The state of Florida.

PARTICIPANTS

Middle school and high school students (n = 42,182) attending public schools in 2018.

METHODS

Dichotomous measures of general handgun carrying and taking a handgun to school within the past 12 months were modeled as dependent variables. Self-reports of hours slept on an average school night were used to construct multiple indicators of sleep duration (ordinal, dichotomous, and hourly dummy variable series) to predict general handgun carrying and taking a handgun to school in logistic regression models when accounting for several covariates.

RESULTS

Adjusting for model covariates, youth who reported sleeping four or fewer hours at night had 40% greater odds of general handgun carrying than youth who reported sleeping eight or more hours. Likewise, youth who reported sleeping four or fewer hours at night had 85% greater odds of taking a handgun to school than youth who reported sleeping eight or more hours. Youth who reported sleeping five, six, or seven hours were no more likely to report handgun-carrying behaviors than youth who reported sleeping eight or more hours.

CONCLUSIONS

Among youth in Florida, severe deficits in sleep are associated with general handgun carrying as well as taking a handgun to school. More modest sleep deficits are not associated with these behaviors.