Clinical-guide risk prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma development in chronic hepatitis C patients after interferon-based therapy

Fibrosis-4 index stratifies risks of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis C

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Risk stratification for patients with a higher risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is crucial. We aimed to investigate the role of the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index in predicting chronic hepatitis C (CHC)-related HCC.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study consecutively included treatment-naive CHC patients receiving longitudinal follow-up at the National Taiwan University Hospital from 1986 to 2014. The clinical data were collected and traced for HCC development. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used to investigate the predictors for HCC.

RESULTS

A total of 1285 patients in the ERADICATE-C cohort were included. The median age was 54, 56% were females, and 933 had HCV viremia. There were 33%, 38%, and 29% of patients having FIB-4 index <1.45, 1.45-3.25, and ≥3.25, respectively. After a median of 9-year follow-up, 186 patients developed HCC. Multivariable analysis revealed that older age, AFP≥20 ng/mL, cirrhosis, and a higher FIB-4 index were independent predictors for HCC. Compared with patients with FIB-4 index <1.45, those with FIB-4 1.45-3.25 had a 5.51-fold risk (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.65-11.46), and those with FIB-4 ≥ 3.25 had 7.45-fold risk (95% CI: 3.46-16.05) of HCC. In CHC patients without viremia, FIB-4 index 1.45-3.25 and FIB-4 ≥ 3.25 increased 6.78-fold and 16.77-fold risk of HCC, respectively, compared with those with FIB-4 < 1.45.

CONCLUSION

The baseline FIB-4 index can stratify the risks of HCC in untreated CHC patients, even those without viremia. The FIB-4 index should thus be included in the management of CHC.

VFMAP predicted hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with chronic hepatitis C who were treated with direct-acting antiviral and achieved sustained virologic response

PURPOSE

Risk factors for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remain unclear in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) who achieve sustained virological response (SVR) after direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy. This study investigated the usefulness of the VFMAP scoring system for predicting the development of HCC in these patients.

METHODS

This study included 358 patients with HCV who achieved SVR after DAA treatment. The VFMAP system defines and scores cutoff values for virtual touch quantification (VTQ), fasting plasma glucose, sex, age, and alpha-fetoprotein values. All patients were grouped according to their VFMAP scores as follows: 0 or 1 point, low-score group; 2 or 3 points, intermediate-score group; and 4 or 5 points, high-score group.

RESULTS

Nineteen patients developed HCC. The median follow-up duration was 3.2 (1.5-4.0) years. The respective cumulative incidence rates of HCC at 12, 24, and 36 months were as follows in different subgroups: all study patients, 3.0%, 4.8%, and 6.6%; low-score group, 0.96%, 0.96%, and 0.96%; intermediate-score group, 2.6%, 4.5%, and 6.8%; and high-score group, 10.0%, 15.3%, and 18.5%. The cumulative incidence rates of HCC in the high-score group were significantly higher than those in the low- and intermediate-score groups (p < 0.001 and < 0.05, respectively).

CONCLUSION

VFMAP accurately predicted the development of HCC in HCV patients who achieved SVR following treatment with DAAs.

Risk-stratified approach by aMAP score for community population infected with hepatitis B and C to guide subsequent liver cancer screening practice: A cohort study with 10-year follow-up

The aim of this study was to determine whether the age-Male-ALBI-Platelet (aMAP) score is applicable in community settings and how to maximise its role in risk stratification. A total of thousand five hundred and three participants had an aMAP score calculated at baseline and were followed up for about 10 years to obtain information on liver cancer incidence and death. After assessing the ability of aMAP to predict liver cancer incidence and death in terms of differentiation and calibration, the optimal risk stratification threshold of the aMAP score was explored, based on absolute and relative risks. The aMAP score achieved higher area under curves (AUCs) (almost all above 0.8) within 10 years and exhibited a better calibration within 5 years. Regarding absolute risk, the risk of incidence of and death from liver cancer showed a rapid increase after an aMAP score of 55. The cumulative incidence (5-year: 8.3% vs. 1.3% and 10-year: 20.9% vs. 3.6%) and mortality (5-year: 6.7% vs. 1.1% and 10-year: 17.5% vs. 3.1%) of liver cancer in individuals with an aMAP score of ≥55 were significantly higher than in those with a score of <55 (Grey's test p  < .001). In terms of relative risk, the risk of death from liver cancer surpassed that from other causes after an aMAP score of ≥55 [HR = 1.38(1.02-1.87)]. Notably, the two types of death risk had opposite trends between the subpopulation with an aMAP score of ≥55 and < 55. To conclude, this study showed the value of the aMAP score in community settings and recommends using 55 as a new risk stratification threshold to guide subsequent liver cancer screening.

Antitumor Activity of Metformin Combined with Locoregional Therapy for Liver Cancer: Evidence and Future Directions

This article aimed to examine the effect of metformin use on improving outcomes after liver-directed therapy in patients with HCC and identify future directions with the adjuvant use of and potential therapeutic agents that operate on similar mechanistic pathways. Databases were queried to identify pertinent articles on metformin's use as an anti-cancer agent in HCC. Eleven studies were included, with five pre-clinical and six clinical studies. The mean overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival were both higher in the locoregional therapy (LRT) + metformin-treated groups. The outcome variables, including local tumor recurrence rate, reduction in HCC tumor growth and size, tumor growth, proliferation, migration and invasion of HCC cells, HCC cell apoptosis, DNA damage, and cell cycle arrest, showed favorable outcomes in the LRT + metformin-treated groups compared with LRT alone. This systemic review provides a strong signal that metformin use can improve the tumor response after locoregional therapy. Well-controlled prospective trials will be needed to elucidate the potential antitumor effects of metformin and other mTOR inhibitors.

Metformin Enhances the Anti-Cancer Efficacy of Sorafenib via Suppressing MAPK/ERK/Stat3 Axis in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence, as well as related mortality, has been steadily increasing in the USA and across the globe, partly due to the lack of effective therapeutic options for advanced HCC. Though sorafenib is considered standard-of-care for advanced HCC, it only improves median survival by a few months when compared to placebo. Sorafenib is also associated with several unpleasant side effects that often lead to early abatement of therapy. Here, we investigate whether a combination regimen including low-dose sorafenib and a non-toxic dose of anti-diabetic drug metformin can achieve effective inhibition of HCC. Indeed, combining metformin with low-dose sorafenib inhibited growth, proliferation, migration, and invasion potential of HCC cells. We observed a 5.3- and 1.9-fold increase in sub-G1 population in the combination treatment compared to sorafenib alone. We found that the combination of metformin enhanced the efficacy of sorafenib and inhibited the MAPK/ERK/Stat3 axis. Our in vivo studies corroborated the in vitro findings, and mice harboring HepG2-derived tumors showed effective tumor reduction upon treatment with low-dose sorafenib and metformin combination. This work sheds light on a therapeutic strategy aiming to augment sorafenib efficacy or dose-de-escalation that may prove beneficial in circumventing sorafenib resistance as well as minimizing related side effects.

Unique situation of hepatocellular carcinoma in Egypt: A review of epidemiology and control measures

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the sixth most common primary malignancy worldwide, and the third most common cause of death among cancers worldwide. HCC occurs in several pre-existing conditions, including hepatitis C, hepatitis B virus, and non-alcoholic cirrhosis. Egypt used to be the country with the heaviest hepatitis C virus (HCV) burden. The relationship between HCV and HCC is an important research area. In Egypt, HCC is a significant public health problem. A possible cause for the increasing rates of detection of HCC in Egypt is the mass screening program that was carried by the government for detecting and treating HCV. A multidisciplinary approach is now widely applied to HCC management in health centers all over Egypt. Different treatment modalities are available in Egypt, with success rates comparable to global rates. The Egyptian health authorities have made the elimination of HCV from Egypt a special priority, and this approach should lead to a decrease in number of HCC cases in the near future. In this article we review the current situation of HCC in Egypt, including epidemiological aspects, relevant risk factors for HCC development, strategies, and efforts established by health authorities for the screening and prevention of both HCV and HCC in Egypt. We highlight the different modalities for HCC treatment.

Computed Tomography-Measured Liver Volume Predicts the Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development in Chronic Hepatitis C Patients

AIM

In this retrospective cohort study, we evaluated the significance of liver volume in the prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in 277 chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients who received dynamic computed tomography (CT) during surveillance.

METHODS

Liver volumes were measured on portal venous phase of CT images by using ImageJ software. Liver volume index, a ratio of the standard liver volume expected by weight and height to the measured liver volume, was calculated to adjust for normal variations. The cohort was randomly divided to derivation (n = 100) and validation sets (n = 177) for the generation of a liver volume-based Cox prediction model and validation of a liver volume-based nomogram, respectively.

RESULTS

The liver volume index was independent of weight or height, and it predicted further development of HCC (hazard ratio [HR] 16.30, 95% CI 6.70-39.62; p < 0.001). Liver cirrhosis, gamma-glutamyl transferase, and liver volume index were independent predictors of HCC, and nomogram-based prediction score from these three parameters identified high-risk patients at the cutoff of 110 in both derivation (p < 0.001) and validation cohort (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Liver volume-based prediction model stratifies the risk of developing HCC in CHC patients whose initial dynamic CT study gave negative results.

Evaluation of ethnic influence in the application of a hepatocellular carcinoma predictive model for chronic hepatitis C

Currently, there is no well-established algorithm predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in untreated hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients. We aimed to validate an algorithm (risk evaluation of viral load elevation and associated liver disease/HCV [REVEAL-HCV]: age, AST, ALT, HCV RNA, HCV genotype, and cirrhosis) developed in Taiwanese patients. We analyzed 1381 (50.1% White, 14.7% Hispanic, 13.8% Asian of diverse origin, and 7.8% African American) adult treatment-naïve HCV patients (no viral co-infection, no HCC within 6 months) at 4 U.S. and one Hong Kong centers (11/1994-10/2017). Compared to the non-Asian cohort, the Asian cohort had a higher percentage of patients in the low-risk group (46.1% vs. 26.1%) and a lower percentage in the high-risk group (12.0% vs. 20.3%, p < 0.01). Overall, 5-year HCC incidence were 1.75%, 4.71%, and 24.4% for low, medium, and high-risk patients, respectively (p < 0.0001). For the overall cohort, area under receiving operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for HCC prediction were 0.83 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.72-0.93), 0.82 (95% CI: 0.75-0.88), and 0.84 (95% CI: 0.77-0.89) for 1-, 3-, and 5-year HCC risk, respectively. There was a slightly lower AUROC for Asians compared to the non-Asian cohort at 3 years (0.75 vs. 0.83) and 5 years (0.78 vs. 0.84), though this was not statistically significant. In multivariable analysis, we found male sex, presence of metabolic syndrome as well as the risk score categories to be independently associated with HCC but not ethnicity. The REVEAL-HCV risk score has good validity for both Asian and non-Asian populations. Further studies should consider additional factors, such as sex, metabolic syndrome, and treatment status.

Epidemiology of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Liver cancer is a major contributor to the worldwide cancer burden. Incidence rates of this disease have increased in many countries in recent decades. As the principal histologic type of liver cancer, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) accounts for the great majority of liver cancer diagnoses and deaths. Hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) remain, at present, the most important global risk factors for HCC, but their importance will likely decline in the coming years. The effect of HBV vaccination of newborns, already seen in young adults in some countries, will be more notable as vaccinated cohorts age. In addition, effective treatments for chronic infections with both HBV and HCV should contribute to declines in the rates of viral-associated HCC. Unfortunately, the prevalence of metabolic risk factors for HCC, including metabolic syndrome, obesity, type II diabetes and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) are increasing and may jointly become the major cause of HCC globally. Excessive alcohol consumption also remains an intractable risk factor, as does aflatoxin contamination of food crops in some parts of the world. While significant efforts in early diagnosis and better treatment are certainly needed for HCC, primary prevention efforts aimed at decreasing the prevalence of obesity and diabetes and controlling mycotoxin growth, are just as urgently required.

Non-invasive fibrosis tests to predict complications in compensated post-hepatitis C cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Markers predicting complications of post-hepatitis C cirrhosis are needed. We asked whether changes in noninvasive markers of fibrosis can predict liver-related complications.

METHODS

This was a case-controlled study using a prospective national cohort (ANRS-CO12-CIRVIR) of 1323 HCV-infected patients with compensated cirrhosis: 97 patients who developed liver-related complications such as hepatocellular carcinoma or hepatic decompensation (cases) matched in age, sex and follow-up duration were compared with 257 patients without complications (controls). Actitest/Fibrotest™, Inflameter/Fibrometer™, ELF™ and Fibroscan™ were performed at baseline and yearly. Samples based on Propensity score matching were built and mixed linear models performed. Outcomes in a sustained virological response (SVR) negative population and a SVR-positive population were also described.

RESULTS

At baseline, all characteristics of patients were similar between the groups. All fibrosis tests were statistically higher for cases compared to controls, Fibroscan™ excepted: Fibrotest™: 0.83±0.13 vs. 0.77±0.16; Fibrometer™: 0.93±0.07 vs. 0.90±0.11; ELF™: 11.4±1.0 vs. 11.0±1.2 (P<0.02). The mean follow-up was 5.7±1.9 years. Over a 3-year period, the significant difference in fibrosis marker values between cases and controls remained constant; with a trend toward a decrease in inflammation markers in controls, independent of SVR status.

CONCLUSIONS

Baseline noninvasive serum fibrosis and inflammation markers were significantly higher in patients developing a complication than in controls. During the follow-up only inflammatory markers decreased in controls, but not in cases, and thus could potentially be used to predict the occurrence of complications in cirrhotic patients.

Chronic hepatitis B exhibited higher rate of hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence than hepatitis C in cirrhotic patients after effective antiviral treatment

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

Effective antiviral-therapy can reduce the risk of liver cirrhosis related hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B and hepatitis C. Yet, the difference of hepatocellular carcinoma development in chronic hepatitis B and hepatitis C patients with cirrhosis after effective antiviral therapy treatment is unknown. In this study, We comprehensive explored the difference among them.

METHODS

1363 patients with cirrhosis and hepatitis B virus treated with nucleos(t)ide analogues (NUCs) with completely suppressed virus, and patients with cirrhosis and hepatitis C virus treated with pegylated interferon (peg-IFN)/ribavirin (RBV) combination therapy who achieved sustained virologic response were enrolled.

RESULTS

Total 261 developed hepatocellular carcinoma within a median follow-up of 4.25 years. Univariate analysis, patients developed hepatocellular carcinoma tended to be of older age, and had lower platelet counts, were chronic hepatitis B carriers, and had higher serum alfa-fetoprotein (AFP) (≥20 ng/mL), FIB-4 index and APRI scores. Subsequent multivariate analysis revealed older age, lower platelet counts, high AFP levels and chronic hepatitis B carriers were independent risk factors of hepatocellular carcinoma.

CONCLUSION

Our findings identify that chronic hepatitis B patients were with a higher risk of hepatocellular carcinoma compared to chronic hepatitis C patients after achieving virological response. Special attention should be paid to those patients.

New Scoring Method to Predict Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C After Pegylated Interferon and Ribavirin Therapy

Antiviral therapy for chronic hepatitis C (CHC) infection using pegylated interferon and ribavirin (PR) therapy can reduce the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Our study developed a new scoring method for predicting HCC risk after PR therapy. Between 2002 and 2016, 743 PR-treated patients with CHC were enrolled. Significant predictors for HCC were identified using multiple Cox regression analysis in study cohort: treatment age ≥60 years (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.3-3.7), pretreatment bilirubin ≥1.1 mg/dL (HR: 1.99, 95% CI = 1.08-3.67), α-fetoprotein ≥7.9 ng/mL (HR: 2.44, 95% CI = 1.16-5.32), no sustained virological response (SVR; HR: 1.91, 95% CI = 1.05-3.45), and baseline cirrhosis (HR: 4.45, 95% CI = 2.07-9.73). These predictors form the new HCC prediction scoring method with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.884, sensitivity of 86.2%, and specificity of 74%. In patients with CHC and SVR, the cumulative incidence of HCC at 5 and 10 years was 16.7% and 30.4%, respectively, in patients with high risk scores and 1.2% and 4.2%, respectively, in patients with low risk scores (P < 0.001). Patients with SVR and high risk scores after viral eradication should remain under an intensive surveillance program for HCC. [Figure: see text].

How to improve HCC surveillance outcomes

Outside of expert centres, surveillance programmes for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are not well executed. There are deficiencies in every stage of the process. Overcoming these obstacles is the most important method for improving surveillance. However, even if these obstacles were overcome, there would still be room for improvement. Assessing who is at risk of developing HCC remains incompletely validated. At present, risk scores have been developed for different causes of liver disease, but scores developed in different parts of the world for the same disease do not always agree. Furthermore, most scores stratify patients by risk but do not examine what level of risk should trigger surveillance. Which surveillance tools to use remains controversial – schemes have been proposed that use biomarkers alone, ultrasound alone, or a combination of both. However, the requisite level of test sensitivity that would be associated with high cure rates has not been defined, so at this point it is not clear whether surveillance requires both ultrasound and biomarkers, or whether the use of biomarkers alone is sufficient. Finally, surveillance should result in the identification of HCC at a very early stage. Diagnosing these lesions is difficult and optimal algorithms for lesions that are atypical on radiology have yet to be developed. Algorithms for the follow-up of abnormal biomarkers in the absence of ultrasound have also not been developed yet.

The Epidemiology of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in the USA

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To discuss current knowledge and recent findings regarding the epidemiology of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the USA.

RECENT FINDING

The US incidence rate of HCC is increasing, although the pace may have somewhat slowed since 2010. In 2012, incidence rates of HCC in Hispanics surpassed those of Asians. The recent epidemiological changes in major risk factors for HCC include increasing hepatitis C virus post-sustained virologic response, suppressed hepatitis B virus on nucleoside analogues, and alcoholic and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease has the greatest proportion of the burden of the main risk factors for HCC in the USA, followed by alcoholic liver disease, and hepatitis C virus and hepatitis B virus infections. This review focuses on current knowledge regarding the recent epidemiological trends in HCC, with an emphasis on future directions.

LCR1 and LCR2, two multi-analyte blood tests to assess liver cancer risk in patients without or with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

No blood test has been shown to be effective in the prediction of primary liver cancer in patients without cirrhosis.

AIM

To construct and internally validate two sequential tests for early prediction of liver cancer. These tests enable an algorithm which could improve the performance of the standard surveillance protocol recommended (imaging with or without AFP), limited to patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis in prospectively collected specimens from an ongoing cohort. We designed an early sensitive high-risk test (LCR1) that combined (using Cox model) hepatoprotective proteins (apolipoproteinA1, haptoglobin) with known risk factors (gender, age, gammaglutamyltranspeptidase), and a marker of fibrosis (alpha2-macroglobulin). To increase the specificity, we then combined (LCR2) these components with alpha-fetoprotein.

RESULTS

A total of 9892 patients, 85.9% without cirrhosis, were followed up for 5.9 years [IQR: 4.3-9.4]. LCR1 and LCR2 time-dependent AUROCs were not different in construction and validation randomised subsets. Among 2027 patients with high-LCR1 then high-LCR2, 167 cancers (113 with cirrhosis, 54 without cirrhosis) were detected, that is 12 patients needed to screen one cancer. The negative predictive value was 99.5% (95% CI 99.0-99.7) in the 2026 not screened patients (11 cancers without cirrhosis) higher than the standard surveillance, which detected 113 cancers in 755 patients screened, that is seven patients needed to screen one cancer, but with a lower negative predictive value 98.0% (97.5-98.5; Z = 4.3; P < 0.001) in 3298 not screened patients (42 cancers without cirrhosis).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with chronic liver disease the LCR1 and LCR2 tests identify those with a high risk of liver cancer, including in those without cirrhosis. NCT01927133.

Clinical characteristics and prognosis of HCC occurrence after antiviral therapy for HCV patients between sustained and non-sustained responders

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients who achieved sustained virologic response (SVR) may still develop hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The characteristic of HCC and the prognosis between SVR and non-SVR patients were not well known.

METHODS

Among 1884 HCV-infected patients who were treated with pegylated IFN plus ribavirin therapies, 122 patients developed HCC during follow-up were enrolled in this study. Laboratory data were collected before and at least 1 year after IFN-based therapy, as well as the latest follow-up.

RESULTS

Both SVR and non-SVR patients had similar risk factors to develop HCC, but with a little difference. Liver cirrhosis plays a key role in HCC occurrence in both groups. Among the patients who developed HCC, non-SVR patients had significantly higher total bilirubin, higher FIB-4, lower pre-treatment platelet count, higher pre-treatment AFP levels and higher proportion of cirrhosis than SVR patients before occurrence of HCC. After curative treatment, SVR patients had lower recurrence and longer overall survival than non-SVR patients by Kaplan-Meier analysis. Multivariate analysis revealed that APRI ≥0.7 was the independent risk factor for HCC recurrence; and AFP ≥20 ng/ml post IFN therapy, as well as HCC recurrence were the independent risk factors of mortality.

CONCLUSION

Liver cirrhosis plays a key role in HCC occurrence after antiviral therapies. SVR patients may have lower HCC recurrence and longer survival rates than non-SVR patients. Only APRI was associated with HCC recurrence; and post-IFN AFP and HCC recurrence were predictive of subsequent mortality independently.

Risk factors for development of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis C without sustained response to combination therapy

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

Although antiviral therapy reduces development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC), HCC often develops in patients with non-sustained virologic response (non-SVR). We aimed to evaluate risk factors for HCC in HCV patients with non-SVR.

METHODS

From March 2002 to December 2013, 800 patients with CHC who had received combined pegylated interferon (peg-IFN)/ribavirin (RBV) therapy without achieving SVR were enrolled. Main outcome measure was HCC development. Variables were cirrhosis, platelet count, α-fetoprotein (AFP) levels, aspartate aminotransferase (AST) to platelet ratio index (APRI), and IL28B polymorphism (CT + TT).

RESULTS

One-hundred of 800 non-SVR patients developed HCC within a median 53.5-months follow-up. Cumulative incidence of HCC for all patients was 1.4%, 5.6% and 12.3%, respectively, at 1st, 3rd and 5th years of follow-up. In univariate analysis, patients who developed HCC tended to have LC (p< 0.001), lower platelet counts (<150 × 109/l, p < 0.001), higher AFP levels (≥20 ng/ml, p < 0.001), higher Fib-4 levels (p < 0.001), higher APRI levels (p < 0.001), IL 28B polymorphism (CT + TT) (p < 0.001) and higher incidence of diabetes mellitus (DM) (p = 0.019). Multivariate analysis in overall patients revealed that cirrhosis (HR: 2.94, 95% CI: 1.81-4.77, p < 0.001), IL28B rs12979860 (CT + TT) polymorphisms (HR: 3.22, 95% CI: 2.17-4.78, p < 0.001), and high APRI levels (≥2.57) (HR: 2.32, 95% CI: 1.47-3.67, p < 0.001) were independent risk factors for HCC.

CONCLUSION

Liver cirrhosis, high APRI levels, and IL28B rs12979860 at baseline are independent risk factors for HCC development in patients without SVR after peg-IFN combination therapy.

Risk score system for the prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with type 2 diabetes: Taiwan Diabetes Study

This study aims to develop a risk score system for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with type 2 diabetes using the Taiwan National Diabetes Care Management Program database. This retrospective cohort study included 31,723 Chinese patients who had type 2 diabetes, aged 30-84 years. Participants were randomly grouped into derivation and validation sets in 2:1 ratio. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to identify the risk factors of HCC in the derivation set. Discrimination ability of the model was assessed by means of a receiver operating characteristic curve and performance was expressed as the c statistic, assessed internally on validation data sets. The average follow-up was 8.33 years with 748 HCC incident cases in the derivation set. The final HCC risk score system included age (-2 to 8 points), gender (0-2 points), smoking (0-2 points), variation in hemoglobin A1c (0-1 point), serum glutamic-pyruvic transaminase (0-6 points), liver cirrhosis (9 points), hepatitis B (4 points), hepatitis C (3 points), antidiabetes medications (0-3 points), and antihyperlipidemia medications and total/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (-4 to 2 points). The HCC risk score was the sum of these individual scores (range -6 to 40). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for 3-, 5-, and 10-year HCC risks was 0.81, 0.80, and 0.77 for the derivation set, respectively. This HCC risk score system has good prediction accuracy and discriminatory ability, and serves a simple tool for HCC risk prediction.

Prediction of the very early occurrence of HCC right after DAA therapy for HCV infection

BACKGROUND

Although direct-acting antiviral (DAA) developments make most of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection curable, some HCV patients develop hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after curative treatment of HCV. There is much dispute whether the rapid clearance of the virus enhances the HCC development. In advance of the dispute, we should make clear the characteristics of the patients with very early occurrence and recurrence of HCC after DAA therapy because it was still unclear.

METHODS

We prospectively followed consecutive patients with HCV who had received sofosbuvir (SOF)-based treatment at two hospitals. The baseline characteristics, laboratory data, and liver imaging findings were acquired. We evaluated the rate of HCC occurrence and recurrence within 1-year after DAA therapy and analyzed the associated factors of very early HCC occurrence and recurrence right after SOF therapy.

RESULTS

Between July 2013 and October 2016, we studied two cohorts with HCV infection that received SOF therapy. 402 and 462 patients in Yamanashi Central Hospital and Chiba University Hospital were included in this analysis, respectively. The SVR12 rates of genotypes 1 and 2 were 98.9% (561/567) and 96.0% (285/297), respectively. 41 patients developed HCC within 1 year after SOF therapy. The cumulative HCC occurrence and recurrence rate after SOF therapy was 5.0%. The common associated factor of 1-year HCC occurrence and recurrence in all cohorts was the existence of imaging "dysplastic nodule".

CONCLUSIONS

SOF regimens for HCV also have very high rates of SVR 12 in the post-market distribution. The appearance of imaging "dysplastic nodule" was an associated factor of 1-year HCC occurrence and recurrence. To investigate existence of "dysplastic nodule" by imaging surveillance before DAA treatment is useful to detect high-risk patients of very early HCC occurrence and recurrence and it should be performed.

Simple score to predict risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis after pegylated interferon and ribavirin therapy

Purpose

Eradication of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) after interferon-based therapy and its association with the reduction of risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in HCV-infected patients with advanced fibrosis is controversial. The study is aimed to develop a simple scoring model for HCC prediction among advanced fibrotic chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients after pegylated interferon (pegIFN) and ribavirin (RBV) therapy.

Patients and methods

We enrolled 271 biopsy-proven CHC patients with advanced fibrosis between 2003 and 2016, and divided them into non-HCC (n=211) and HCC (n=60) groups. The median observation duration was 6.0 years (range: 0.9–12.6 years).

Results

The HCC prevalence after pegIFN and RBV therapy in CHC patients with sustained virologic response (SVR) and without SVR was 14.7% and 32.2%, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression showed age ≥59.5 years old at initiation of therapy (HR: 2.542, 95% CI: 1.390–4.650, P=0.002), pretreatment total bilirubin ≥1.1 mg/dL (HR: 2.630, 95% CI: 1.420–4.871, P=0.002), pretreatment platelet counts <146.5 × 10³/μL (HR: 2.751, 95% CI: 1.373–5.511, P=0.004), no achievement of SVR (HR: 2.331, 95% CI: 1.277–4.253, P=0.006), and no diabetes at treatment initiation (HR: 3.085, 95% CI: 1.283–7.418, P=0.012) were significant predictors of HCC development. The scoring model consisted of the five categorical predictors and had an optimal cutoff point of 2.5. The area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of the scoring model was 0.774±0.035 (P<0.001). The sensitivity and specificity of the cutoff value to detect HCC were 81.3% and 57.5%. The 5-year and 10-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 4.9% and 10.0% in patients with simple score ≤2; and 25.9% and 44.6% in patients with simple score ≥3 (P<0.001).

Conclusion

The simple clinical-guided score has high discriminatory power for HCC prediction in advanced fibrotic CHC patients after pegIFN and RBV therapy.

Risk factors and prevention of hepatocellular carcinoma in the era of precision medicine

Patients who develop chronic fibrotic liver disease, caused by viral or metabolic aetiologies, are at a high risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Even after complete HCC tumour resection or ablation, the carcinogenic tissue microenvironment in the remnant liver can give rise to recurrent de novo HCC tumours, which progress into incurable, advanced-stage disease in most patients. Thus, early detection and prevention of HCC development is, in principle, the most impactful strategy to improve patient prognosis. However, a "one-size-fits-all" approach to HCC screening for early tumour detection, as recommended by clinical practice guidelines, is utilised in less than 20% of the target population, and the performance of screening modalities, including ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein, is suboptimal. Furthermore, optimal screening strategies for emerging at-risk patient populations, such as those with chronic hepatitis C after viral cure, or those with non-cirrhotic, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease remain controversial. New HCC biomarkers and imaging modalities may improve the sensitivity and specificity of HCC detection. Clinical and molecular HCC risk scores will enable precise HCC risk prediction followed by tailoured HCC screening of individual patients, maximising cost-effectiveness and optimising allocation of limited medical resources. Several aetiology-specific and generic HCC chemoprevention strategies are evolving. Epidemiological and experimental studies have identified candidate chemoprevention targets and therapies, including statins, anti-diabetic drugs, and selective molecular targeted agents, although their clinical testing has been limited by the lengthy process of cancer development that requires long-term, costly studies. Individual HCC risk prediction is expected to overcome the challenge by enabling personalised chemoprevention, targeting high-risk patients for precision HCC prevention and substantially improving the dismal prognosis of HCC.

Toll-like receptor 4 polymorphism as pretreatment predictor of response to HCV genotype 3a interferon-based treatment

Polymorphisms in Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) gene may exaggerate the chances and pathogenesis of HCV. Aim: This study intends to examine the relationship of genetic polymorphisms of TLR4 with HCV disease in Pakistani patients. Methodology: For this purpose, 500 blood samples were collected to confirm the genetic profile of all the subjects. Results: Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the TLR4 gene, rs4986790 (A>G), was genotyped in 400 HCV infected and 100 healthy individuals. The TLR4 gene was associated with a significantly increased risk of HCV-related diseases in comparing genotype assessments in patients and controls (pooled OR [95%CI]: 1.671 [0.946–2.949] for dominant; 0.503 [0.221–1.145] for recessive; 2.33 [1.518–3.576] for allele frequency). Subgroup analyses showed an increased risk of HCV infection and effect on interferon therapy associated with AA+AG/GG genotypes of rs4986790 (2.033 [1.094–3.778]). Conclusion: TLR4 SNP rs4986790 was found to be related to HCV-infected patients in the Pakistani population.

Risk factors for vertical transmission of hepatitis E virus infection

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) infection can be vertically transmitted, but the factors that transmit the disease to foetuses are still unclear. We studied a total of 144 pregnant women with HEV infection. Cord blood and newborn samples were taken for analysis. Nutritional factors were evaluated on the basis of anthropometric parameters and biochemical factors, and HEV viral load was quantified by real-time PCR. Sequencing of HEV-positive samples was performed. Approximately 14.63% (6/41) of pregnant patients with acute liver failure (ALF) died before delivery. Vertical transmission was observed in 46.09% (59/128) of HEV-IgM-positive mothers. Approximately 23.80% (10/42) of newborns in the acute viral hepatitis group and 29.41% (5/17) in the ALF group were positive for HEV-RNA. No significant difference was observed in the occurrence of vertical transmission in HEV groups. Viral load was found to be a significant predictor for vertical transmission of HEV infection adjusted with haemoglobin and folate in derivation cohort group. Incorporating these variables, a new score predicting vertical transmission of HEV was derived. Using these significant predictors, the probability for vertical transmission of HEV was well stratified in the validation group (P>.05). In conclusion, viral load was associated with vertical transmission of HEV infection. A valid prediction score model was generated that was verified in a validation cohort group.

Plasma DNA methylation marker and hepatocellular carcinoma risk prediction model for the general population

Metastases in the later stages of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cause the majority of deaths associated with the disease, making early detection crucial to patient survival. Risk models assessing HCC risk in the general population can be used for risk stratification for further HCC surveillance, however, none have been validated externally. Methylation of circulating DNA shows potential for non-invasive diagnosis of HCC. We conducted a prospective case-control study nested within a community-based cohort. We measured methylation levels in six genes (CDKN2A, RASSF1A, STEAP4, TBX2, VIM and ZNF154) which were identified in our previous work, using pre-diagnostic plasma DNA from 237 HCC cases and 257 matched controls. We found TBX2 hypermethylation was associated with increased HCC risk, with ORs (95% CI) of 3.2 (1.8-6.0). The associations were mainly among high-risk subjects; among subjects infected with HBV/HCV, the OR (95% CI) of TBX2 methylation was 5.3 (2.2-12.7). Among subjects with high risk scores, the ORs (95% CIs) were 7.8 (1.5-38.6) for Wen-HCC model ≥16, 5.8 (2.2-15.5) for Hung-HCC ≥15 and 7.5 (2.2-26.0) for Michikawa-HCC ≥8. Adding TBX2 methylation improved the accuracy of risk models for a high-risk population, with the area under the curve (AUC) of 76% for Wen-HCC score with TBX2 methylation compared with 69% with Wen-HCC alone. The AUCs were 63% for Hung-HCC score plus TBX2 methylation, and 53% for Hung-HCC alone, 65% for Michikawa-HCC score plus TBX2 methylation and 58% for Michikawa-HCC alone. Our findings suggest the potential increase in risk assessment discrimination and accuracy from incorporation of DNA methylation.

Prediction of the Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis C Patients after Sustained Virological Response by Aspartate Aminotransferase to Platelet Ratio Index

Background/Aims

Following sustained virological response (SVR) for chronic hepatitis C (CHC) infection, patients with advanced fibrosis require regular monitoring for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) is a simple noninvasive surrogate marker known to reflect fibrosis.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed 598 patients who achieved SVR with interferon-based therapy for CHC.

Results

Over a median of 5.1 years of follow-up, there were eight patients diagnosed with HCC and a 5-year cumulative incidence rate of 1.3%. The median pretreatment APRI was 0.83, which decreased to 0.29 after achieving SVR (p<0.001). Both the pre- and posttreatment indices were associated with HCC development. The 5-year cumulative HCC incidence rates were 0% and 2.8% for patients with pretreatment APRI <1.0 and ≥1.0, respectively (p=0.001) and 0.8% and 12.8% for patients with posttreatment APRI <1.0 and ≥1.0, respectively (p<0.001). Pretreatment APRI at a cutoff of 1.0 had a 100% negative predictive value until 10 years after SVR.

Conclusions

HCC development was observed among CHC patients who achieved SVR. The pre- and post-treatment APRI could stratify HCC risk, indicating that the APRI could be a useful marker to classify HCC risk in CHC patients who achieved SVR. However, given the small number of HCC patients, this finding warrants further validation.

Epidemiology of Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) are the most frequently occurring types of primary liver cancer and together are among the most common incident cancers worldwide. There are a number of modifiable and nonmodifiable HCC and ICC risk factors that have been reported. A review of the existing literature the epidemiology and risk factors for HCC and ICC was performed. There are a number of major infectious, lifestyle, metabolic, and heritable risk factors for both HCC and ICC. Some of these risk factors are either potentially preventable (eg, alcohol and tobacco use) or are currently treatable (eg hepatitis infection). In most cases, the molecular pathway or mechanism by which these etiologic factors cause primary liver cancer has not been well delineated. However, in nearly all cases, it is believed that a given risk factor causes liver injury and inflammation which results in chronic liver disease. Given the rising prevalence of several common HCC and ICC risk factors in the western world, the best opportunities for improving the care of these patients are either through the prevention of modifiable risk factors that are associated with the development of chronic liver disease or the identification of at risk patients, ensuring they are appropriately screened for the development of primary liver cancer, and initiating treatment early.

Screening for hepatocellular carcinoma: patient selection and perspectives

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) develops on the background of liver cirrhosis often from multiple, simultaneous factors. The diagnosis of a single small HCC comes with good prognosis and provides a potential for cure. In contrast, the diagnosis of multifocal, large HCC has high mortality and poor prognosis. Unfortunately, the majority of HCC is diagnosed at such late stages. A surveillance program endorsed by regional liver societies involves six-monthly ultrasound surveillance of at-risk patients. This had been in action for the last two decades. It has led to marked increase in the proportion of patients presenting with small unifocal nodules found on surveillance. The development of tools to enhance our ability in optimizing available surveillance is likely to improve the prognosis of patients with HCC. In this review, we discuss the difficulties in utilizing HCC surveillance and possible means of improvement.

A Circulating MicroRNA Signature Capable of Assessing the Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Cirrhotic Patients

With the availability of potent antiviral therapies, complete suppression of hepatitis B virus (HBV) replication and total eradication of hepatitis C virus (HCV) can now be achieved. Despite these advances, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) still develops in a substantial proportion of cirrhotic patients, suggesting that host factors remain critical. Dysregulation of miRNAs is noted in many cancers, and circulating miRNAs can be readily assayed. In this study, we aimed to develop a circulating miRNA signature to assess the risk of HCC in cirrhotic patients. We first discovered that HBV- and HCV-related cirrhotic patients had distinguishable circulating miRNA profiles. A cohort of 330 cirrhotic patients was then compared against a cohort of 42 early HCC patients with complete remission. A score comprising 5 miRNAs and a binary etiology variable was established that was capable of differentiating between these two groups (AUC = 72.5%, P < 0.001). The 330 cirrhotic patients were further stratified into high- and low-risk groups, and all patients were longitudinally followed for 752 (11-891) days. Of them, 19 patients developed HCC. The high-risk group had significantly higher cumulative HCC incidence (P = 0.038). In summary, a circulating miRNA-based score was developed that is capable of assessing HCC risks in cirrhotic patients.

Long-term effect of sustained virological response on hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with hepatitis C in Canada

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Evidence is limited on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk after sustained virological response (SVR) to interferon-based treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. We evaluated the effect of SVR on the risk of HCC and estimated its incidence in post-SVR HCV patients from a large population-based Canadian cohort.

METHODS

The British Columbia Hepatitis Testers Cohort includes individuals tested for HCV between 1990-2013 linked with data on their medical visits, hospitalizations, cancers, prescription drugs and mortality. Patients receiving interferon-based HCV treatments were followed from the end of treatment to HCC diagnosis, death or December 31, 2012. We examined HCC risk among those who did and did not achieve SVR using multivariable proportional hazard models with the Fine and Gray modification for competing risks.

RESULTS

Of 8147 individuals who received HCV treatment and were eligible for analysis, 4663 (57%) achieved SVR and 3484 (43%) did not. Each group was followed for a median of 5.6years (range: 0.5-12.9) for an HCC incidence rate of 1.1/1000 person-years (PY) among the SVR and 7.2/1000 PY among the no SVR group. The HCC incidence rate was higher among those with cirrhosis (SVR: 6.4, no SVR: 21.0/1000 PY). In the multivariable model, SVR was associated with a lower HCC risk (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR]=0.20, 95% CI: 0.13-0.3), while cirrhosis (SHR=2.61, 95% CI: 1.68-4.04), age ⩾50years, being male and genotype 3 infection were associated with a higher HCC risk. Among those who achieved SVR, cirrhosis, age ⩾50years and being male were associated with a higher HCC risk.

CONCLUSION

SVR after interferon-based treatment substantially reduces but does not eliminate HCC risk, which is markedly higher among those with cirrhosis and age ⩾50years at treatment initiation. Treatment of patients at an advanced fibrosis stage with new highly effective drugs will warrant continued surveillance for HCC post-SVR.

LAY SUMMARY

We assessed the effect of successful hepatitis C treatment with older interferon-based treatment on the occurrence of liver cancer (hepatocellular carcinoma) and found that successful treatment prevents liver cancer. However, more people with cirrhosis and older age continued to develop liver cancer after successful treatment. Thus, treatment with new drugs among those with cirrhosis will require continued monitoring for liver cancer.

Tailored algorithms for hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance: Is one-size-fits-all strategy outdated?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Current clinical practice guidelines recommend regular hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance with biannual ultrasound with or without serum alpha-fetoprotein uniformly applied to all patients with cirrhosis. However, clinical implementation of this one-size-fits-all strategy has been challenging as evidenced by very low application rate below 20% due to various reasons, including suboptimal performance of the surveillance modalities.

RECENT FINDINGS

Newly emerging imaging techniques such as abbreviated MRI (AMRI) and molecular HCC risk biomarkers have increasingly become available for clinical evaluation and implementation. These technologies may have a potential to reshape HCC surveillance by enabling tailored strategies. This would involve performing optimized surveillance tests according to individual HCC risk, and allocating limited medical resources for HCC surveillance based on cost-effectiveness.

SUMMARY

Tailored HCC surveillance could lead to achievement of precision HCC care and substantial improvement of the current dismal patient prognosis.

Prediction of development of hepatocellular carcinoma using a new scoring system involving virtual touch quantification in patients with chronic liver diseases

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to establish a new scoring system that combined several risk factors, including virtual touch quantification (VTQ) values and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels, for predicting the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic liver disease.

METHODS

A total of 1808 chronic liver disease patients who underwent VTQ measurement were analyzed. Risk factors for developing HCC were selected by multivariate Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

VTQ (>1.33 m/s), FPG (≥110 mg/dl), sex (male), age (≥55 years), and α-fetoprotein (AFP) level (≥5 ng/ml) were independently selected as risk factors for HCC development by multivariate analysis. Using these parameters, we established a new scoring system (0 to 5 points), based on VTQ, FPG, sex, age, and AFP level, named VFMAP. As compared with the low VFMAP score group (0 or 1 point), the hazard ratio for the incidence of HCC was 17.37 [95 % confidence interval (CI), 2.35-128.40] in the intermediate-score group (2 or 3 points) and 66.82 (95 % CI, 9.01-495.80) in the high-score group (4 or 5 points). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the VFMAP score for predicting HCC development within 5 years was 0.82 (95 % CI, 0.76-0.87), indicating a moderate diagnostic value. A VFMAP cutoff value of 3 excluded HCC within 5 years with a high negative predictive value (98.2 %).

CONCLUSION

The VFMAP score accurately predicted HCC in patients with chronic liver disease.

Nomogram for individualized prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence in hepatitis C virus cirrhosis (ANRS CO12 CirVir)

The aim of this work was to develop an individualized score for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with hepatitis C (HCV)-compensated cirrhosis. Among 1,323 patients with HCV cirrhosis enrolled in the French prospective ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort, 720 and 360 were randomly assigned to training and validation sets, respectively. Cox's multivariate model was used to predict HCC, after which a nomogram was computed to assess individualized risk. During follow-up (median, 51.0 months), 103 and 39 patients developed HCC in the training and validation sets, respectively. Five variables were independently associated with occurrence of HCC: age > 50 years (hazard ratio [HR], 1.94; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16; 3.25; P = 0.012); past excessive alcohol intake (HR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.02; 2.36; P = 0.041); low platelet count (<100 Giga/mm(3) : HR, 2.70; 95% CI, 1.62; 4.51; P < 0.001; [100; 150] Giga/mm(3) : HR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.10; 3.18; P = 0.021); gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase above the upper limit of normal (HR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.11; 3.47; P = 0.021); and absence of a sustained virological response during follow-up (HR, 3.02; 95% CI, 1.67; 5.48; P < 0.001). An 11-point risk score was derived from the training cohort and validated in the validation set. Based on this score, the population was stratified into three groups, in which HCC development gradually increased, from 0% to 30.1% at 5 years for patients with the lowest (≤3) and highest (≥8) scores (P < 0.001). Using this score, a nomogram was built enabling individualized prediction of HCC occurrence at 1, 3, and 5 years.

CONCLUSION

This HCC score can accurately predict HCC at an individual level in French patients with HCV cirrhosis. (Hepatology 2016;64:1136-1147).

Dynamic α-fetoprotein, platelets and AST-to-platelet ratio index predict hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis C patients with sustained virological response after antiviral therapy

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients who achieve viral eradication may still develop hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Little is known about the impact of dynamic change of serum markers on HCC development.

METHODS

We enrolled 1351 HCV-infected patients who achieved sustained virological response (SVR). Laboratory data were collected at least 1 year after IFN-based therapy and to the latest follow-up. Data on α-fetoprotein (AFP) were obtained >6 months prior to HCC development to exclude HCC-related AFP elevation.

RESULTS

HCC developed in 49 patients. Risk factors for HCC in SVR patients were old age, liver cirrhosis, higher pre- and post-treatment AFP and high post-treatment AST-to-platelet ratio index (APRI). Patients with pre-AFP ≥15 ng/mL → post-AFP ≥15 ng/mL (at 1 year, 23.1%; 5 years, 42.3%) and pre-AFP <15 ng/mL → post-AFP ≥15 ng/mL (at 1 year, 25%; 5 years, 50%) had the highest risk of HCC development, followed by pre-AFP ≥15 ng/mL → post-AFP <15 ng/mL (at 1 year, 5.2%; 5 years, 7.6%) and pre-AFP <15 ng/mL → post-AFP ng/mL <15 ng/mL (at 1 year, 0.5%; 5 years, 0.9%) (P < 0.001). The pattern was similar for platelets and APRI (P < 0.001). SVR patients with pre-APRI ≥0.7 → post-APRI ≥0.7 had the highest risk of HCC development, followed by comparable risks among the other three groups.

CONCLUSIONS

SVR patients with a persistently high AFP level (≥15 ng/mL) and a high APRI (≥0.7) before and after treatment had the highest incidence of HCC development. Patients with a reduction of AFP and APRI to the normal range after treatment had a markedly decreased risk of HCC. The risk was lowest for patients who kept persistently normal AFP and APRI before and after treatment.

Dynamic prediction of risk of liver-related outcomes in chronic hepatitis C using routinely collected data

Accuracy of risk assessments for clinical outcomes in patients with chronic liver disease has been limited given the nonlinear nature of disease progression. Longitudinal prediction models may more accurately capture this dynamic risk. The aim of this study was to construct accurate models of short- and long-term risk of disease progression in patients with chronic hepatitis C by incorporating longitudinal clinical data. Data from the Hepatitis C Antiviral Long-term Treatment Against Cirrhosis trial were analysed (n = 533 training cohort; n = 517 validation cohort). Outcomes included a composite liver outcome (liver-related death, decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) or liver transplant), decompensation, HCC and overall mortality. Longitudinal models were constructed for risk of outcomes at 1, 3 and 5 years and compared with models using data at baseline only or baseline and a single follow-up time point. A total of 25.1% of patients in the training and 20.8% in the validation cohort had an outcome during a median follow-up of 6.5 years (range 0.5-9.2). The most important predictors were as follows: albumin, aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio, bilirubin, alpha-fetoprotein and platelets. Longitudinal models outperformed baseline models with higher true-positive rates and negative predictive values. The areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for the composite longitudinal model were 0.89 (0.80-0.96), 0.83 (0.76-0.88) and 0.81 (0.75-0.87) for 1-, 3-, and 5-year risk prediction, respectively. Model performance was retained for decompensation and overall mortality but not HCC. Longitudinal prediction models provide accurate risk assessments and identify patients in need of intensive monitoring and care.

Risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma in different populations

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a malignant disease with limited therapeutic options due to its aggressive progression. It places heavy burden on most low and middle income countries to treat HCC patients. Nowadays accurate HCC risk predictions can help making decisions on the need for HCC surveillance and antiviral therapy. HCC risk prediction models based on major risk factors of HCC are useful and helpful in providing adequate surveillance strategies to individuals who have different risk levels. Several risk prediction models among cohorts of different populations for estimating HCC incidence have been presented recently by using simple, efficient, and ready-to-use parameters. Moreover, using predictive scoring systems to assess HCC development can provide suggestions to improve clinical and public health approaches, making them more cost-effective and effort-effective, for inducing personalized surveillance programs according to risk stratification. In this review, the features of risk prediction models of HCC across different populations were summarized, and the perspectives of HCC risk prediction models were discussed as well.

Evidence-Based Diagnosis, Staging, and Treatment of Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Evidence-based management of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is key to their optimal care. For individuals at risk for HCC, surveillance usually involves ultrasonography (there is controversy over use of biomarkers). A diagnosis of HCC is made based on findings from biopsy or imaging analyses. Molecular markers are not used in diagnosis or determination of prognosis and treatment for patients. The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer algorithm is the most widely used staging system. Patients with single liver tumors or as many as 3 nodules ≤3 cm are classified as having very early or early-stage cancer and benefit from resection, transplantation, or ablation. Those with a greater tumor burden, confined to the liver, and who are free of symptoms are considered to have intermediate-stage cancer and can benefit from chemoembolization if they still have preserved liver function. Those with symptoms of HCC and/or vascular invasion and/or extrahepatic cancer are considered to have advanced-stage cancer and could benefit from treatment with the kinase inhibitor sorafenib. Patients with end-stage HCC have advanced liver disease that is not suitable for transplantation and/or have intense symptoms. Studies now aim to identify molecular markers and imaging techniques that can detect patients with HCC at earlier stages and better predict their survival time and response to treatment.

Hypersplenism is correlated with increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with post-hepatitis cirrhosis

Several risk factors exist for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with post-hepatitis cirrhosis (PHC), including hypersplenism. Splenectomy is a common but controversial procedure in the management of hypersplenism, but its impact on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains uncertain. We conducted a hospital-based study of PHC patients to identify potential risk factors, including a history of splenectomy, which has been associated with progression from PHC to HCC. From 2002 to 2012, 2678 patients developed hypersplenism secondary to PHC. Of these patients, 828 developed HCC and 1850 did not. Potential risk factors of HCC were determined by univariate and multivariate analyses to exclude confounding variables. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95 % confidence intervals (95 % CIs) were determined for each factor. Many factors, such as liver function, platelet (PLT) counts, Child-Pugh class, and history of hepatitis, were associated with progression to HCC. PHC patients with hypersplenism who displayed elevated levels of alanine transaminase (ALT), aspartate transaminase (AST), γ-glutamyltransferase (GGT), ALK, phosphatase, and prolonged prothrombin time (PT) had a significantly increased risk of HCC. However, the patients who had splenectomy showed better liver function test results and less progression to HCC. In patients with PHC and hypersplenism, abnormal levels of ALT, AST, ALP, and GGT and prolonged PT are risk factors of HCC. Splenectomy, as the intervention method of hypersplenism, is performed less frequently in patients who developed HCC than in patients who did not develop HCC. Therefore, splenectomy may act as an independent factor that is significantly associated with HCC development.

Liver cancer screening in high-risk populations

Patients with liver disease have a risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but the risk varies between different diseases and is also different according to several other variables, such as age, type of underlying liver disease and severity of disease. Several risk scores have been developed to more adequately quantitate HCC risk in individual patients. Each risk score is applicable to a specific population (chronic hepatitis B or C, patients on the transplant list, cirrhosis in general, and so on). Most publications on risk scores do not provide clear guidance as to what level of measured risk is sufficient to trigger surveillance.

High post-treatment absolute monocyte count predicted hepatocellular carcinoma risk in HCV patients who failed peginterferon/ribavirin therapy

Salient studies have investigated the association between host inflammatory response and cancer. This study was conducted to test the hypothesis that peripheral absolute monocyte counts (AMC) could impart an increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients after a failed peginterferon/ribavirin (PR) combination therapy. A total of 723 chronic HCV-infected patients were treated with PR, of which 183 (25.3 %) patients did not achieve a sustained virological response (non-SVR). Post-treatment AMC values were measured at 6 months after end of PR treatment. Fifteen (2.8 %) of 540 patients with an SVR developed HCC during a median follow-up period of 41.4 months, and 14 (7.7 %) of 183 non-SVR patients developed HCC during a median follow-up of 36.8 months (log rank test for SVR vs. non-SVR, P = 0.002). Cox regression analysis revealed that post-treatment AFP level (HR 1.070; 95 % CI = 1.024-1.119, P = 0.003) and post-treatment aspartate aminotransferase (AST)-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) ≥0.5 (HR 4.401; 95 % CI = 1.463-13.233, P = 0.008) were independent variables associated with HCC development for SVR patients. For non-SVR patients, diabetes (HR 5.750; 95 % CI = 1.387-23.841, P = 0.016), post treatment AMC ≥370 mm(-3) (HR 5.805; 95 % CI = 1.268-26.573, P = 0.023), and post-treatment APRI ≥1.5 (HR 10.905; 95 % CI = 2.493-47.697, P = 0.002) were independent risks associated with HCC. In conclusion, post-treatment AMC has a role in prognostication of HCC development in HCV-infected patients who failed to achieve an SVR after PR combination therapy.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma From Epidemiology to Prevention: Translating Knowledge into Practice

The epidemiology of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is characterized by dynamic temporal trends, several major established (i.e., HCV, HBV, alcohol) and emerging (i.e., diabetes, obesity, NAFLD) risk factors. Epidemiologic studies and clinical trials have identified additional demographic, clinical, pharmacological, genetic and life style factors that further affect or modify the likelihood of HCC and can be used in clinical practice to identify at-risk patients (i.e., risk stratification or prognostic algorithms) that can be targeted for prevention and early detection programs. These studies have also paved the way toward several well established preventive measures including HBV vaccination, HBV treatment, HCV treatment and HCC surveillance, and potential chemoprevention using statins, metformin or coffee. However, the effectiveness of HCC prevention in clinical practice and at the population level has lagged behind due to patient, provider, system, and societal factors. The Quality in the Continuum of Cancer Care model provides a framework for evaluating the HCC prevention processes, including potential failures that create a gap between efficacy and effectiveness.

Molecular prognostic prediction in liver cirrhosis

The natural history of cirrhosis varies and therefore prognostic prediction is critical given the sizable patient population. A variety of clinical prognostic indicators have been developed and enable patient risk stratification although their performance is somewhat limited especially within relatively earlier stage of disease. Molecular prognostic indicators are expected to refine the prediction, and potentially link a subset of patients with molecular targeted interventions that counteract poor prognosis. Here we overview clinical and molecular prognostic indicators in the literature, and discuss critical issues to successfully define, evaluate, and deploy prognostic indicators as clinical scores or tests. The use of liver biopsy has been diminishing due to sampling variability on fibrosis assessment and emergence of imaging- or lab test-based fibrosis assessment methods. However, recent rapid developments of genomics technologies and selective molecular targeted agents has highlighted the need for biopsy tissue specimen to explore and establish molecular information-guided personalized/stratified clinical care, and eventually achieve “precision medicine”.

Genetic diversity of the KIR/HLA system and susceptibility to hepatitis C virus-related diseases

Background

The variability in the association of host innate immune response to Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection requires ruling out the possible role of host KIR and HLA genotypes in HCV-related disorders: therefore, we therefore explored the relationships between KIR/HLA genotypes and chronic HCV infection (CHC) as they relate to the risk of HCV-related hepatocarcinoma (HCC) or lymphoproliferative disease progression.

Methods and Findings

We analyzed data from 396 HCV-positive patients with CHC (n = 125), HCC (118), and lymphoproliferative diseases (153), and 501 HCV-negative patients. All were HIV and HBV negative. KIR-SSO was used to determine the KIR typing. KIR2DL5 and KIR2DS4 variants were performed using PCR and GeneScan analysis. HLA/class-I genotyping was performed using PCR-sequence-based typing. The interaction between the KIR gene and ligand HLA molecules was investigated. Differences in frequencies were estimated using Fisher’s exact test, and Cochran-Armitage trend test. The non-random association of KIR alleles was estimated using the linkage disequilibrium test. We found an association of KIR2DS2/KIR2DL2 genes, with the HCV-related lymphoproliferative disorders. Furthermore, individuals with a HLA-Bw6 KIR3DL1+ combination of genes showed higher risk of developing lymphoma than cryoglobulinemia. KIR2DS3 gene was found to be the principal gene associated with chronic HCV infection, while a reduction of HLA-Bw4 + KIR3DS1+ was associated with an increased risk of developing HCC.

Conclusions

Our data highlight a role of the innate-system in developing HCV-related disorders and specifically KIR2DS3 and KIR2D genes demonstrated an ability to direct HCV disease progression, and mainly towards lymphoproliferative disorders. Moreover the determination of KIR3D/HLA combination of genes direct the HCV progression towards a lymphoma rather than an hepatic disease. In this contest IFN-α therapy, a standard therapy for HCV-infection and lymphoproliferative diseases, known to be able to transiently enhance the cytotoxicity of NK-cells support the role of NK cells to counterstain HCV-related and lymphoproliferative diseases.

Evaluation of hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with chronic hepatitis C by EOB-MRI

AIM: To evaluate the efficacy of ethoxibenzyl-magnetic resonance imaging (EOB-MRI) as a predictor of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development.

METHODS: Between August 2008 and 2009, we studied 142 hepatitis C virus-infected patients (male 70, female 72), excluding those with HCC or a past history, who underwent EOB-MRI in our hospital. The EOB-MRI index [liver-intervertebral disc ratio (LI)] was calculated as: (post-liver intensity/post-intervertebral disc intensity)/(pre-liver intensity/pre-intervertebral disc intensity).

RESULTS: The median follow-up period was 3.1 years and the patients were observed until the end of the study period (31 December, 2012). In the follow-up period, HCC occurred in 21 patients. The cumulative occurrence rates were 2.1%, 9.1%, and 14.1% at 1, 2, and 3 years, respectively. Using the optimal cut-off value of LI 1.46, on univariate analysis, age, aspartate amino transferase (AST), α-fetoprotein (AFP) ≥ 10, albumin, total cholesterol, prothrombin time, platelets, and LI < 1.46 were identified as independent factors, but on multivariate analysis, LI < 1.46: risk ratio 6.05 (1.34-27.3, P = 0.019) and AFP ≥ 10: risk ratio 3.1 (1.03-9.35, P = 0.045) were identified as independent risk factors. LI and Fib-4 index have higher area under the receiver operating characteristic curves than other representative fibrosis evaluation methods, such as Forn’s index and AST-to-platelet ratio index.

CONCLUSION: LI is associated with the risk of HCC occurrence in hepatitis C patients. LI may be a substitute for liver biopsy when evaluating this risk and its combined use with Fib-4 is a better predictive method of HCC progression.

The association of toll-like receptor 4 polymorphism with hepatitis C virus infection in Saudi Arabian patients

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a single stranded RNA virus. It affects millions of people worldwide and is considered as a leading cause of liver diseases including cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. A recent study reported that TLR4 gene polymorphisms are good prognostic predictors and are associated with protection from liver fibrosis among Caucasians. This study aims to investigate the implication of genetic polymorphisms of TLR4 gene on the HCV infection in Saudi Arabian patients. Two SNPs in the TLR4 gene, rs4986790 (A/G) and rs4986791 (C/T), were genotyped in 450 HCV patients and 600 uninfected controls. The association analysis confirmed that both SNPs showed a significant difference in their distribution between HCV-infected patients and uninfected control subjects (P < 0.0001; OR = 0.404, 95% CI = 0.281-0.581) and (P < 0.0001; OR = 0.298, 95% CI = 0.201-0.443), respectively. More importantly, haplotype analysis revealed that four haplotypes, AC, GT, GC, and AT (rs4986790, rs4986791), were significantly associated with HCV infection when compared with control subjects. One haplotype AC was more prominently found when chronic HCV-infected patients were compared with cirrhosis/HCC patients (frequency = 94.7% and P = 0.04). Both TLR4 SNPs under investigation were found to be significantly implicated with HCV-infection among Saudi Arabian population.

Oxidative stress and hepatic Nox proteins in chronic hepatitis C and hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common liver cancer and a leading cause of cancer-related mortality in the world. Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major etiologic agent of HCC. A majority of HCV infections lead to chronic infection that can progress to cirrhosis and, eventually, HCC and liver failure. A common pathogenic feature present in HCV infection, and other conditions leading to HCC, is oxidative stress. HCV directly increases superoxide and H2O2 formation in hepatocytes by elevating Nox protein expression and sensitizing mitochondria to reactive oxygen species generation while decreasing glutathione. Nitric oxide synthesis and hepatic iron are also elevated. Furthermore, activation of phagocytic NADPH oxidase (Nox) 2 of host immune cells is likely to exacerbate oxidative stress in HCV-infected patients. Key mechanisms of HCC include genome instability, epigenetic regulation, inflammation with chronic tissue injury and sustained cell proliferation, and modulation of cell growth and death. Oxidative stress, or Nox proteins, plays various roles in these mechanisms. Nox proteins also function in hepatic fibrosis, which commonly precedes HCC, and Nox4 elevation by HCV is mediated by transforming growth factor β. This review summarizes mechanisms of oncogenesis by HCV, highlighting the roles of oxidative stress and hepatic Nox enzymes in HCC.