Modelling the health co-benefits of sustainable diets in the UK, France, Finland, Italy and Sweden

Low-carbon diets across diverse dietary patterns: Addressing population heterogeneity under constrained optimization

Mathematical optimization is a useful tool for modeling diets that fulfill requirements for health and environmental sustainability, however, population-based optimization approaches fail to account for underlying dietary diversity in populations. This study proposes a methodological approach to consider diverse dietary intake patterns in mathematical optimization of nutritionally adequate low-carbon diets and investigates the differences between different population groups, along with trade-offs between greenhouse gas emission (GHGE) reduction and the inconvenience of dietary changes required to achieve optimized diets. A k-means clustering analysis was applied to individual dietary intake data from Denmark, which resulted in four clusters with different dietary patterns. This was followed by quadratic programming, wherein the total dietary changes required from the observed diet within each cluster were used as a proxy for consumer inconvenience (i.e., "inconvenience index") and were minimized while fulfilling nutrient constraints and incrementally tightened GHGE constraints. Across clusters, a steep increase of the inconvenience index was observed at GHGE levels below approximately 3 kg CO2e/10 MJ, corresponding to GHGE reductions of 24-36 % in different clusters. In all clusters, the optimized diets with nutritional and GHGE constraints showed common traits of increased content of cereals and starches, eggs, and fish and decreased amounts of beef and lamb, cheese, animal-based fats, and alcoholic beverages, but differences across clusters were also observed, maintaining characteristics of the clusters' baselines. When additional health-based targets for food amounts were applied as constraints, the optimized diets converged towards the same type of diet. The total inconvenience of dietary changes required to fulfill constraints differed between clusters, indicating that specific sub-populations may be more effective targets for dietary transition. The method has potential for future integration of more sustainability aspects and different consumer preferences.

Modelling impacts of a salt and sugar tax on hypothetical intra-category food substitutions, BMI and environmental footprints in the UK population

PURPOSE

Taxes on unhealthy foods can help improve population health in the United Kingdom (UK), but the health effects of food substitutions resulting from these taxes are often unclear. We investigated the potential impacts of a salt and sugar tax on hypothetical intra-category food substitutions, cost, body-mass index (BMI), and environmental footprints.

METHODS

Purchase panel data from Kantar (2017) were used to determine the most popular foods high in salt or sugar within eight 'salt-intensive'/'sugar-intensive' food categories. Within food categories, the most popular lower salt (≤ 1.5 g salt/100 g product) and lower sugar (≤ 22.5 g sugar/100 g product) substitutes were also identified. Hypothetical swaps between high salt/sugar foods and lower salt/sugar substitutes were explored, focusing on changes to cost, caloric intake and BMI, and environmental impacts in the UK population.

RESULTS

The suggested intra-category substitutions were largely like-for-like and did not accrue an added overall cost to consumers. The substitutions reduced calorie intake by about 200 kcal/day and lowered the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the UK from approximately 60-65% to about 40-45%. The proposed food substitutions led to a total reduction of -2.7Mt of greenhouse gases, ∼ -500.000 ha of land, -0.5km3 of blue water, -12km3 of scarcity weighted water, ∼ -12.000t of phosphorus, and nearly - 14.000t of sulphur dioxide over one year for the UK population due to reductions in calorie intake.

CONCLUSION

Food substitutions following a tax on salt and sugar could lead to significant benefits for health and the environment, without necessarily resulting in major changes to people's expenditure on familiar salty and sugary snacks.

Health impact of policies to reduce agriculture-related air pollutants in the UK: The relative contribution of change in PM2.5 exposure and diets to morbidity and mortality

Food systems can negatively impact health outcomes through unhealthy diets and indirectly through ammonia emissions originating from agricultural production, which contribute to air pollution and consequently cardiovascular and respiratory health outcomes. In the UK, ammonia emissions from agriculture have not declined in the same way as other air pollutants in recent years. We applied a novel integrated modelling framework to assess the health impacts from six ammonia reduction scenarios to 2030: two agriculture scenarios - a "Current trends" scenario projecting current mitigation measures to reflect a low ambition future, and "High ambition mitigation" based on measures included in the Climate Change Committee's Balanced Pathway to Net Zero; three dietary scenarios - a "Business as usual" based on past trajectories, "Fiscal" applying 20% tax on meat and dairy and 20% subsidy on fruit and vegetables, and "Innovation" applying a 30% switch to plant-based alternatives; one combination of "High ambition mitigation" and "Innovation". Compared to "Current trends", the "High ambition mitigation" scenario would result in a reduction in premature mortality of 13,000, increase life years by 90,000 and reduce incidence of respiratory diseases by 270,000 cases over a 30 year period. Compared to Business as Usual, the dietary scenarios would reduce the number of premature deaths by 65,000 and 550,000-600,000 life years gained over 30 years, with most of the benefits gained by reducing ischemic heart disease (incidence reduction: 190,000). The "High ambition combination" would lead to 67,000 deaths averted, 536,000 incidence reductions and 650,000 life-years gained. For all scenarios, older age groups and those living in lower income households would experience the greatest benefits, because of higher underlying mortality rates or higher levels of risk factors. Our study shows that combining mitigation policies targeting agricultural production systems with diet-related policies would lead to significant reductions in emissions and improvement in health outcomes.

Dietary quality and dietary greenhouse gas emissions in the USA: a comparison of the planetary health diet index, healthy eating index-2015, and dietary approaches to stop hypertension

BACKGROUND

The Planetary Health Diet Index (PHDI) measures adherence to the dietary pattern presented by the EAT-Lancet Commission, which aligns health and sustainability targets. There is a need to understand how PHDI scores correlate with dietary greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) and how this differs from the carbon footprints of scores on established dietary recommendations. The objectives of this study were to compare how the PHDI, Healthy Eating Index-2015 (HEI-2015) and Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) relate to (a) dietary GHGE and (b) to examine the influence of PHDI food components on dietary GHGE.

METHODS

We used life cycle assessment data from the Database of Food Recall Impacts on the Environment for Nutrition and Dietary Studies to calculate the mean dietary GHGE of 8,128 adult participants in the 2015-2016 and 2017-2018 cycles of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Poisson regression was used to estimate the association of (a) quintiles of diet score and (b) standardized dietary index Z-scores with dietary GHGE for PHDI, HEI-2015, and DASH scores. In secondary analyses, we used Poisson regression to assess the influence of individual PHDI component scores on dietary GHGE.

RESULTS

We found that higher dietary quality on all three indices was correlated with lower dietary GHGE. The magnitude of the dietary quality-dietary GHGE relationship was larger for PHDI [-0.4, 95% CI (-0.5, -0.3) kg CO2 equivalents per one standard deviation change] and for DASH [-0.5, (-0.4, -0.6) kg CO2-equivalents] than for HEI-2015 [-0.2, (-0.2, -0.3) kg CO2-equivalents]. When examining PHDI component scores, we found that diet-related GHGE were driven largely by red and processed meat intake.

CONCLUSIONS

Improved dietary quality has the potential to lower the emissions impacts of US diets. Future efforts to promote healthy, sustainable diets could apply the recommendations of the established DASH guidelines as well as the new guidance provided by the PHDI to increase their environmental benefits.

Diet-Attributable Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Acute Myocardial Infarction in Costa Rica Heart Study

Adopting sustainable dietary patterns is essential for planetary and human health. As data to address this issue are lacking in Latino populations, this study examined the association between diet-attributable greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) and myocardial infarction (MI) in a Costa Rica Heart Study. This analysis included 1817 cases of a first non-fatal acute MI during hospitalization and their matched population-based controls, by age, sex, and area of residence. A validated food frequency questionnaire was used to quantify habitual dietary intake and diet-attributable GHGEs (kg CO2 equivalent (eq.)/year). Due to the matching design, conditional logistic regression was used. Red meat consumption contributed approximately 50% to the total diet-attributable GHGEs among both cases and controls. Higher diet-attributable GHGEs were associated with increased odds of acute MI. The odds of MI were 63% higher (OR = 1.63; 95% CI 1.20-2.21) among participants in the highest quintile (median diet-attributable GHGEs = 6247 kg CO2 eq./year) compared to the lowest quintile (median diet-attributable GHGEs = 2065 kg CO2 eq./year). An increasing linear trend in the odds of acute MI and diet-attributable GHGEs was detected (p-trend 0.0012). These findings highlight the importance of reducing red meat consumption to sustainably mitigate the incidence of MI and improve planetary health.

Shifting towards optimized healthy and sustainable Dutch diets: impact on protein quality

PURPOSE

To reduce the environmental impact of Western diets, a reduction of meat consumption and a substitution by plant-based protein sources is needed. This protein transition will affect the quantity and quality of dietary protein. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the protein adequacy of diets optimized for nutritional health and diet-related greenhouse gas emission (GHGE).

METHODS

Data from 2150 adult participants of the Dutch National Food Consumption Survey were used, with diet assessed using two non-consecutive 24 h dietary recalls. Utilizable protein of current diets per day was based on meal composition and the Protein Digestibility-Corrected Amino Acid Score and was compared to protein requirements. Optimized diets were derived as linear combinations of current diets that minimized GHGE and maximized the Dutch Healthy Diet 2015 score, with/without constraints to keep dietary change within 33% of current consumption. Protein adequacy was evaluated in both current and optimized diets.

RESULTS

In all age and gender strata, the healthiest diets had higher GHGE, the most sustainable diets had the lowest dietary quality, though higher than current diets, and protein adequacy remained sufficient. When limiting dietary change to 33% of current consumption, in the most promising trade-off diet GHGE was reduced by 12-16%. The current diet provided 1.4-2.2 times the required amount of utilizable protein.

CONCLUSION

These results suggest that a realistic aim for the next decade might be to reduce diet-related GHGE to 12-16% of the current levels without compromising protein adequacy and diet quality. To achieve global targets, upstream food system transformations are needed with subsequent dietary changes.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and adherence to Mediterranean diet in an adult population: the Mediterranean diet index as a pollution level index

BACKGROUND

Research related to sustainable diets is is highly relevant to provide better understanding of the impact of dietary intake on the health and the environment.

AIM

To assess the association between the adherence to an energy-restricted Mediterranean diet and the amount of CO₂ emitted in an older adult population.

DESIGN AND POPULATION

Using a cross-sectional design, the association between the adherence to an energy-reduced Mediterranean Diet (erMedDiet) score and dietary CO₂ emissions in 6646 participants was assessed.

METHODS

Food intake and adherence to the erMedDiet was assessed using validated food frequency questionnaire and 17-item Mediterranean questionnaire. Sociodemographic characteristics were documented. Environmental impact was calculated through greenhouse gas emissions estimations, specifically CO₂ emissions of each participant diet per day, using a European database. Participants were distributed in quartiles according to their estimated CO₂ emissions expressed in kg/day: Q1 (≤2.01 kg CO₂), Q2 (2.02-2.34 kg CO₂), Q3 (2.35-2.79 kg CO₂) and Q4 (≥2.80 kg CO₂).

RESULTS

More men than women induced higher dietary levels of CO₂ emissions. Participants reporting higher consumption of vegetables, fruits, legumes, nuts, whole cereals, preferring white meat, and having less consumption of red meat were mostly emitting less kg of CO₂ through diet. Participants with higher adherence to the Mediterranean Diet showed lower odds for dietary CO₂ emissions: Q2 (OR 0.87; 95%CI: 0.76-1.00), Q3 (OR 0.69; 95%CI: 0.69-0.79) and Q4 (OR 0.48; 95%CI: 0.42-0.55) vs Q1 (reference).

CONCLUSIONS

The Mediterranean diet can be environmentally protective since the higher the adherence to the Mediterranean diet, the lower total dietary CO₂ emissions. Mediterranean Diet index may be used as a pollution level index.

Health and sustainability co-benefits of eating behaviors: Towards a science of dietary eco-wellness

Two of the greatest challenges of our times - climate change and the linked epidemics of obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease - are fueled in part by the over-consumption of carbon-intensive high calorie foodstuffs. Converging evidence from hundreds of studies has confirmed that transitioning from diets high in meat and dairy to largely plant-based diets not only is necessary for climate change mitigation but will also lead to substantive reductions in morbidity and mortality. Nevertheless, there are only the faintest beginnings of a robust science of behavioral eco-wellness, defined here as the study of how individual choices, behaviors, and habits impact both personal health and environmental sustainability. This paper focusses on the sub-field of dietary eco-wellness, which looks at health and sustainability impacts of food production, procurement, preparation, and consumption. To advance this crucial agenda, investigators will need to invent, develop, and assess approaches aimed at helping people transition towards healthier and more sustainable diets. In order to accurately and reliably assess appropriate outcomes, existing assessment methods will need to be refined, new techniques will need to be advanced, and all measurement methods will need to be validated. Local conditions will influence the effectiveness of various approaches, and so it is important that scientists and communities share their stories of success and challenge for others to learn from. This paper reviews emerging evidence from relevant studies in dozens of countries, suggesting next steps, potential pathways, and a framework for interpretation.

Incorporation of novel foods in European diets can reduce global warming potential, water use and land use by over 80

Global food systems face the challenge of providing healthy and adequate nutrition through sustainable means, which is exacerbated by climate change and increasing protein demand by the world's growing population. Recent advances in novel food production technologies demonstrate potential solutions for improving the sustainability of food systems. Yet, diet-level comparisons are lacking and are needed to fully understand the environmental impacts of incorporating novel foods in diets. Here we estimate the possible reductions in global warming potential, water use and land use by replacing animal-source foods with novel or plant-based foods in European diets. Using a linear programming model, we optimized omnivore, vegan and novel food diets for minimum environmental impacts with nutrition and feasible consumption constraints. Replacing animal-source foods in current diets with novel foods reduced all environmental impacts by over 80% and still met nutrition and feasible consumption constraints.

Healthy and Sustainable Food Shopping: A Survey of Intentions and Motivations

Objectives

To determine the relationship between sustainable and healthy food shopping behavior comparing general motivation with the immediate intention to act.

Method

We conducted an online survey of 144 staff at the Cork Institute of Technology, Ireland, using a questionnaire based on the Theory of Planned Behavior and the Self-Determination Theory to compute the Behavioral Intention score and the Relative Autonomy Index in relation to healthy and sustainable grocery shopping.

Results

The intention to shop healthy food was higher (p < 0.001, Cohen's d = 0.56) than the intention to shop in a sustainable way. A significant intention-action gap was observed for both healthy (p < 0.001, Cohen's d = 0.97) and sustainable grocery shopping (p < 0.001, Cohen's d = 1.78). While there was a significant correlation (p < 0.001) between the longer-term motivations to act in a healthy and sustainable way, this association was not significant (p = 0.16) for the more short-term Behavioral Intention scores.

Conclusion and Implications

Health was identified as a more important driver for dietary behavior compared to sustainability. While longer-term motivation shows a stronger correlation between healthy and sustainable grocery shopping, short-term intentions do not follow this pattern as strongly. A significant intention-action gap exists for both, which is stronger for sustainability than for health.

Sustainable Diets as Tools to Harmonize the Health of Individuals, Communities and the Planet: A Systematic Review

Background. Climate change and global health are inextricably linked. Thus, health systems and their professionals must adapt and evolve without losing quality of care. Aim(s). To identify health and environmental co-benefits derived from a sustainable diet and promotion strategies that favor its implementation. Methods. A systematic search for articles published on sustainable diets and human/planetary health published between 2013 and 2020 was conducted on the databases PubMed, Cinahl, Scopus and Trip from 4 to 7 May 2020 in accordance with the PRISMA guideline. Results. A total of 201 articles was retrieved, but only 21 were included. A calorie-balanced diet mainly based on food of plant origin that would allow the attainment of 60% of daily caloric requirements and a low protein intake from animal foods (focusing in fish and poultry) could significantly reduce global morbi-mortality and the dietary environmental impact maintaining a framework of sustainability conditioned by the consumption of fresh, seasonal, locally produced and minimally packaged products. Discussion. The implementation of sustainable diets requires working on the triangulation of concepts of food–health–environment from schools and that is permanently reinforced during all stages of the life by healthcare workers, who should establish the appropriate modifications according to the age, gender and health situation.

Advantages and limitations of the methodological approaches used to study dietary shifts towards improved nutrition and sustainability

Acting on diet is one of the changes required - in combination with actions on food production, transformation, and waste - to address the challenges of reducing the environmental impact of our food systems and eliminating all forms of malnutrition. The number of studies exploring how to move towards a more sustainable diet has exploded over the past decades, but there is a need to facilitate their understanding and use by policy makers and all other stakeholders possibly influencing diet sustainability. The aim of the present article is to propose a categorization of studies into 4 approaches, based on the type of methodology used to explore diet sustainability, and to highlight the principles, advantages, and limitations of each approach in order to help study users in their interpretation. The 4 approaches are: assessment of sustainability characteristics of hypothetical diets (approach 1) or existing diets (approach 2), identification of existing "positive deviants" (approach 3), and design of more sustainable diets with constrained optimization (approach 4). Specificities and key findings drawn from each approach are described, and challenges for future studies are discussed.

Co-benefits from sustainable dietary shifts for population and environmental health: an assessment from a large European cohort study

BACKGROUND

Unhealthy diets, the rise of non-communicable diseases, and the declining health of the planet are highly intertwined, where food production and consumption are major drivers of increases in greenhouse gas emissions, substantial land use, and adverse health such as cancer and mortality. To assess the potential co-benefits from shifting to more sustainable diets, we aimed to investigate the associations of dietary greenhouse gas emissions and land use with all-cause and cause-specific mortality and cancer incidence rates.

METHODS

Using data from 443 991 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study, a multicentre prospective cohort, we estimated associations between dietary contributions to greenhouse gas emissions and land use and all-cause and cause-specific mortality and incident cancers using Cox proportional hazards regression models. The main exposures were modelled as quartiles. Co-benefits, encompassing the potential effects of alternative diets on all-cause mortality and cancer and potential reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and land use, were estimated with counterfactual attributable fraction intervention models, simulating potential effects of dietary shifts based on the EAT-Lancet reference diet.

FINDINGS

In the pooled analysis, there was an association between levels of dietary greenhouse gas emissions and all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1·13 [95% CI 1·10-1·16]) and between land use and all-cause mortality (1·18 [1·15-1·21]) when comparing the fourth quartile to the first quartile. Similar associations were observed for cause-specific mortality. Associations were also observed between all-cause cancer incidence rates and greenhouse gas emissions, when comparing the fourth quartile to the first quartile (adjusted HR 1·11 [95% CI 1·09-1·14]) and between all-cause cancer incidence rates and land use (1·13 [1·10-1·15]); however, estimates differed by cancer type. Through counterfactual attributable fraction modelling of shifts in levels of adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet, we estimated that up to 19-63% of deaths and up to 10-39% of cancers could be prevented, in a 20-year risk period, by different levels of adherence to the EAT-Lancet reference diet. Additionally, switching from lower adherence to the EAT-Lancet reference diet to higher adherence could potentially reduce food-associated greenhouse gas emissions up to 50% and land use up to 62%.

INTERPRETATION

Our results indicate that shifts towards universally sustainable diets could lead to co-benefits, such as minimising diet-related greenhouse gas emissions and land use, reducing the environmental footprint, aiding in climate change mitigation, and improving population health.

FUNDING

European Commission (DG-SANCO), the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), MRC Early Career Fellowship (MR/M501669/1).

Secular trends in diet-related greenhouse gas emission estimates since 2000 - a shift towards sustainable diets in Sweden

Objective:

This study examines secular changes in diet-related greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) in younger and older Swedish adults, since the turn of this century.

Design:

Two cross-sectional health examination surveys were conducted in 2001–2004 (T₁) and 2014–2018 (T₂). At both times, an eighty-six-item FFQ was embedded in the survey. From the food frequencies and age-standardised portion sizes, GHGE estimates (kg CO₂e/year) were calculated. GHGE was modelled as a function of time period and covariates, for five distinct age groups.

Setting:

The municipality of Gothenburg, in western Sweden.

Participants:

Women and men aged 25–34, 35–44, 45–54, 55–64 and 65–75 years were randomly selected from the population registry and recruited for examinations. After exclusion of participants with incomplete dietary data, the analytic sample consisted of 2569 individuals at T₁ and 2119 at T₂.

Results:

Lower dietary GHGE scores were observed at T₂ compared with T₁, in each age group, adjusting for sex, BMI and education. The largest differences in GHGE were observed in the youngest age group (approximately 30 % reduction). Decreasing trends in GHGE from animal-based foods were observed at all ages and were accompanied by smaller increases from plant-based sources in younger groups only. At all ages, GHGE from discretionary foods decreased, and prevalence of overweight remained stable.

Conclusions:

Optimal dietary trends should support both human health and planetary health. Our results suggest that Swedish adults have moved in this direction, e.g. through less intake of red meat products and stable weight status.

Toward a Healthy and Environmentally Sustainable Campus Food Environment: A Scoping Review of Postsecondary Food Interventions

Interventions are urgently needed to transform the food system and shift population eating patterns toward those consistent with human health and environmental sustainability. Postsecondary campuses offer a naturalistic setting to trial interventions to improve the health of students and provide insight into interventions that could be scaled up in other settings. However, the current state of the evidence on interventions to support healthy and environmentally sustainable eating within postsecondary settings is not well understood. A scoping review of food- and nutrition-related interventions implemented and evaluated on postsecondary campuses was conducted to determine the extent to which they integrate considerations related to human health and/or environmental sustainability, as well as to synthesize the nature and effectiveness of interventions and to identify knowledge gaps in the literature. MEDLINE (via PubMed), CINAHL, Scopus, and ERIC were searched to identify articles describing naturalistic campus food interventions published in English from January 2015 to December 2019. Data were extracted from 38 peer-reviewed articles, representing 37 unique interventions, and synthesized according to policy domains within the World Cancer Research Foundation's NOURISHING framework. Most interventions were focused on supporting human health, whereas considerations related to environmental sustainability were minimal. Interventions to support human health primarily sought to increase nutrition knowledge or to make complementary shifts in food environments, such as through nutrition labeling at point of purchase. Interventions to support environmental sustainability often focused on reducing food waste and few emphasized consumption patterns with lower environmental impacts. The implementation of integrated approaches considering the complexity and interconnectivity of human and planetary health is needed. Such approaches must go beyond the individual to alter the structural determinants that shape our food system and eating patterns.

Pathways to "5-a-day": modeling the health impacts and environmental footprints of meeting the target for fruit and vegetable intake in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND

Fruit and vegetable consumption in the United Kingdom is currently well below recommended levels, with a significant associated public health burden. The United Kingdom has committed to reducing its carbon emissions to net zero by 2050, and this transition will require shifts towards plant-based diets.

OBJECTIVE

The aim was to quantify the health effects, environmental footprints, and cost associated with 4 different pathways to meeting the United Kingdom's "5-a-day" recommendation for fruit and vegetable consumption.

METHODS

Dietary data based on 18,006 food diaries from 4528 individuals participating in the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey (2012/13-2016/17) constituted the baseline diet. Linear programming was used to model the hypothetical adoption of the 5-a-day (400 g) recommendation, which was assessed according to 4 pathways differing in their prioritization of fruits versus vegetables and UK-produced versus imported varieties. Increases in fruit and vegetable consumption were substituted for consumption of sweet snacks and meat, respectively. Changes in life expectancy were assessed using the IOMLIFET life table model. Greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs), blue water footprint (WF), and total diet cost were quantified for each 5-a-day diet.

RESULTS

Achieving the 5-a-day target in the United Kingdom could increase average life expectancy at birth by 7-8 mo and reduce diet-related GHGEs by 6.1 to 12.2 Mt carbon dioxide equivalents/y; blue WFs would change by -0.14 to +0.07 km3/y. Greater reductions in GHGEs were achieved by prioritizing increased vegetable consumption over fruit, whereas the greatest reduction in WF was obtained by prioritizing vegetable varieties produced in the United Kingdom. All consumption pathways increased diet cost (£0.34-£0.46/d).

CONCLUSIONS

Benefits to both population and environmental health could be expected from consumption pathways that meet the United Kingdom's 5-a-day target for fruit and vegetables. Our analysis identifies cross-sectoral trade-offs and opportunities for national policy to promote fruit and vegetable consumption in the United Kingdom.

Disability-adjusted life years due to chronic and hidden hunger under food system evolution with climate change and adaptation to 2050

BACKGROUND

Climate change presents an increasing challenge for food-nutrition security. Nutrition metrics calculated from quantitative food system projections can help focus policy actions.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate future chronic and hidden hunger disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)-due to protein-energy undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies, respectively-using food systems projections to evaluate the potential impact of climate change and agricultural sector investment for adaptation.

METHODS

We use a novel combination of a chronic and hidden hunger DALY estimation procedure and food system projections from quantitative foresight modeling to assess DALYs under alternative agricultural sector scenarios to midcentury.

RESULTS

Total chronic and hidden hunger DALYs are projected to increase globally out to 2050-by over 30 million compared with 2010-even without climate change. Climate change increases total DALY change between 2010 and 2050 by nearly 10% compared with no climate change. Agricultural sector investments show promise for offsetting these impacts. With investments, DALY incidence due to chronic and hidden hunger is projected to decrease globally in 2050 by 0.24 and 0.56 per 1000 capita, respectively. Total global DALYs will still rise because projected population growth will outpace the rate reduction, especially in Africa south of the Sahara. However, projections also show important regional reductions in total DALYs due to chronic (13.9 million in South Asia, 4.3 million in East Asia and the Pacific) and hidden hunger (7.5 million in East Asia and the Pacific) with investments.

CONCLUSIONS

Food system projections to 2050 show a decreasing DALY incidence from both chronic and hidden hunger. Population growth is projected to outpace these improvements and lead to increasing total chronic and hidden hunger DALYs globally, concentrated in Africa south of the Sahara. Climate change increases per-capita chronic and hidden hunger DALY incidence compared with no climate change. Agricultural sector investments show the potential to offset the climate impact on DALYs.

Conservative to disruptive diets for optimizing nutrition, environmental impacts and cost in French adults from the NutriNet-Santé cohort

Improving the sustainability of diets requires the identification of diets that meet the nutritional requirements of populations, promote health, are within planetary boundaries, are affordable and are acceptable. Here we explore the extent to which dimensions of sustainability could be optimally aligned and identify more sustainable dietary solutions, from the most conservative to the most disruptive, among 12,166 participants of the NutriNet-Santé cohort. We aim to concomitantly lower environmental impacts (including greenhouse gas emissions, cumulative energy demand and land occupation), increase organic food consumption and study departure from observed diets (considered as a proxy for acceptability). From the most conservative to the most disruptive scenario, optimized diets were gradually richer in fruits, vegetables and soya-based products and markedly poorer in animal-based foods and fatty and sweet foods. The contribution of animal protein to total protein intake gradually decreased by 12% to 70% of the observed value. The greenhouse gas emissions from food production for the diets gradually decreased across scenarios (as a percentage of observed values) by 36-86%, land occupation for food production by 32-78% and energy demand by 28-72%. Our results offer a benchmark of scenarios of graded dietary changes against graded sustainability improvements.

Climate change mitigation through dietary change: a systematic review of empirical and modelling studies on the environmental footprints and health effects of 'sustainable diets'

The adoption of healthy diets with low environmental impact has been widely promoted as an important climate change mitigation strategy. Typically, these diets are high in plant-sourced and low in animal-sourced and processed foods. Despite the fact that their environmental impacts vary, they are often referred to as 'sustainable diets'. Here we systematically review the available published evidence on the effect of 'sustainable diets' on environmental footprints and human health. Eight databases (OvidSP-Medline, OvidSP-Embase, EBSCO-GreenFILE, Web of Science Core Collection, Scopus, OvidSP-CAB-Abstracts, OvidSP-AGRIS, and OvidSP-Global Health) were searched to identify literature (published 1999-2019) reporting health effects and environmental footprints of 'sustainable diets'. Available evidence was mapped and pooled analysis was conducted by unique combinations of diet pattern, health and environmental outcome. Eighteen studies (412 measurements) met our inclusion criteria, distinguishing twelve non-mutually exclusive sustainable diet patterns, six environmental outcomes, and seven health outcomes. In 87% of measurements (n = 151) positive health outcomes were reported from 'sustainable diets' (average relative health improvement: 4.09% [95% CI -0.10-8.29]) when comparing 'sustainable diets' to current/baseline consumption patterns. Greenhouse gas emissions associated with 'sustainable diets' were on average 25.8%[95%CI -27.0 to -14.6] lower than current/baseline consumption patterns, with vegan diets reporting the largest reduction in GHG-emissions (-70.3% [95% CI: -90.2 to -50.4]), however, water use was frequently reported to be higher than current/baseline diets. Multiple benefits for both health and the environment were reported in the majority (n = 315[76%]) of measurements. We identified consistent evidence of both positive health effects and reduced environmental footprints accruing from 'sustainable diets'. The notable exception of increased water use associated with 'sustainable diets' identifies that co-benefits are not universal and some trade-offs are likely. When carefully designed, evidence-based, and adapted to contextual factors, dietary change could play a pivotal role in climate change mitigation, sustainable food systems, and future population health.

Health impacts and environmental footprints of diets that meet the Eatwell Guide recommendations: analyses of multiple UK studies

OBJECTIVES

To assess the health impacts and environmental consequences of adherence to national dietary recommendations (the Eatwell Guide (EWG)) in the UK.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A secondary analysis of multiple observational studies in the UK.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer - Oxford(EPIC-Oxford), UK Biobank and Million Women Study, and adults and children aged 5 and over from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS).Primary and secondary outcome measures risk of total mortality from Cox proportional hazards regression models, total greenhouse gas emissions (GHGe) and blue water footprint (WF) associated with 'very low' (0-2 recommendations), 'low' (3-4 recommendations) or 'intermediate-to-high' (5-9 recommendations) adherence to EWG recommendations.

RESULTS

Less than 0.1% of the NDNS sample adhere to all nine EWG recommendations and 30.6% adhere to at least five recommendations. Compared with 'very low' adherence to EWG recommendations, 'intermediate-to-high adherence' was associated with a reduced risk of mortality (risk ratio (RR): 0.93; 99% CI: 0.90 to 0.97) and -1.6 kg CO2eq/day (95% CI: -1.5 to -1.8), or 30% lower dietary GHGe. Dietary WFs were similar across EWG adherence groups. Of the individual Eatwell guidelines, adherence to the recommendation on fruit and vegetable consumption was associated with the largest reduction in total mortality risk: an RR of 0.90 (99% CI: 0.88 to 0.93). Increased adherence to the recommendation on red and processed meat consumption was associated with the largest decrease in environmental footprints (-1.48 kg CO2eq/day, 95% CI: -1.79 to 1.18 for GHGe and -22.5 L/day, 95% CI: -22.7 to 22.3 for blue WF).

CONCLUSIONS

The health and environmental benefits of greater adherence to EWG recommendations support increased government efforts to encourage improved diets in the UK that are essential for the health of people and the planet in the Anthropocene.

Sustainable lamb production: Evaluation of factors affecting lamb growth using hierarchical, cross classified and multiple memberships models

In light of current concerns about the sustainability of red meat production in a world with increasing global demand for food from animal origin there is a need for a better understanding of factors that influence the growth rate and feed conversion efficiency of animals on commercial farms. The primary objective of this observational study was to use longitudinal data to quantify the simultaneous effects of multiple ewe and lamb factors on lamb growth rate. A secondary aim was to evaluate model structures that specifically account for lamb grouping effects during the growth period and compare these to classical hierarchical growth rate models. A total of 4172 weight recordings from 805 lambs and data on disease events were collected over a 6-month period from a commercial pedigree sheep flock. Three mixed model structures were compared, hierarchical, cross classified and multiple membership, and final estimates determined within a Bayesian framework. The multiple membership structure provided the best model fit and was used for final inference; taking account of the effect of lamb grouping over time provided the best estimates of lamb growth rate. Ewe lameness and mastitis cases had a deleterious impact on lamb growth. Lambs from ewes identified with mastitis during lactation were on average 3.0 (standard error (SE) 1.6) kg lighter during the four month growth period than lambs from unaffected ewes. Lambs from ewes that were not lame during pregnancy were 3.0 (SE 1.2) kg heavier at eight weeks of age than lambs from ewes with a least one lameness case during the same period. Lambs from ewes lame either during the first 4 weeks or between 4-8 weeks of a lamb's life (but not lame during pregnancy) were also significantly heavier at 56 days of age, than lambs reared by ewes that were lame during pregnancy (2.8 (SE 1.2) and 3.4 (SE 1.2) kg respectively). Cases of pneumonia and bacterial arthritis in lambs had a significant negative impact on lamb growth with affected lambs being on average 5.5 (SE 1.1) kg and 2.2 (SE 1.2) kg less than non-affected lambs respectively after the disease event. Prior to a case of lameness or pneumonia, lambs were significantly heavier than unaffected lambs suggesting a possible trade-off between growth and immune function. Overall, the study provides evidence that that a combination of ewe and lamb characteristics and disease events play an important role in determining lamb growth rate and that heavier lambs may be more susceptible to disease.