Maps and metrics of insecticide-treated net access, use, and nets-per-capita in Africa from 2000-2020

LLIN Evaluation in Uganda Project (LLINEUP): modelling the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions on delivery of long-lasting insecticidal nets on malaria indicators in Uganda

BACKGROUND

Disruptions in malaria control due to COVID-19 mitigation measures were predicted to increase malaria morbidity and mortality in Africa substantially. In Uganda, long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) are distributed nationwide every 3-4 years, but the 2020-2021 campaign was altered because of COVID-19 restrictions so that the timing of delivery of new nets was different from the original plans made by the National Malaria Control Programme.

METHODS

A transmission dynamics modelling exercise was conducted to explore how the altered delivery of LLINs in 2020-2021 impacted malaria burden in Uganda. Data were available on the planned LLIN distribution schedule for 2020-2021, and the actual delivery. The transmission model was used to simulate 100 health sub-districts, and parameterized to match understanding of local mosquito bionomics, net use estimates, and seasonal patterns based on data collected in 2017-2019 during a cluster-randomized trial (LLINEUP). Two scenarios were compared; simulated LLIN distributions matching the actual delivery schedule, and a comparable scenario simulating LLIN distributions as originally planned. Model parameters were otherwise matched between simulations.

RESULTS

Approximately 70% of the study population received LLINs later than scheduled in 2020-2021, although some areas received LLINs earlier than planned. The model indicates that malaria incidence in 2020 was substantially higher in areas that received LLINs late. In some areas, early distribution of LLINs appeared less effective than the original distribution schedule, possibly due to attrition of LLINs prior to transmission peaks, and waning LLIN efficacy after distribution. On average, the model simulations predicted broadly similar overall mean malaria incidence in 2021 and 2022. After accounting for differences in cluster population size and LLIN distribution dates, no substantial increase in malaria burden was detected.

CONCLUSIONS

The model results suggest that the disruptions in the 2020-2021 LLIN distribution campaign in Uganda did not substantially increase malaria burden in the study areas.

Insufficient duration of insecticidal efficacy of Yahe® insecticide-treated nets in Papua New Guinea

BACKGROUND

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are the backbone of anti-malarial vector control in Papua New Guinea (PNG). Over recent years the quality and performance of ITNs delivered to PNG decreased, which has likely contributed to the stagnation in the malaria control effort in the country. The present study reports results from the first 24 months of a durability study with the ITN product Yahe LN® in PNG.

METHODS

The durability study was conducted in four villages on the northern coast of PNG, in an area with high malaria parasite transmission, following WHO-recommended methodology adapted to the local scenario. A cohort of n = 500 individually identifiable Yahe® ITNs was distributed by the PNG National Malaria Control Programme from October to December 2021. Insecticidal efficacy of the ITNs was tested using cone bioassays with fully pyrethroid susceptible Anopheles farauti colony mosquitoes at baseline and at 6 months intervals, alongside evaluation of physical integrity and the proportion of ITNs lost to follow-up. A questionnaire was used to collect information on ITN end user behaviour, such as the frequency of use and washing. The observations from the durability study were augmented with simulated laboratory wash assays.

RESULTS

Gradual uptake and replacement of previous campaign nets by the communities was observed, such that at 6 months 45% of all newly distributed nets were in use in their designated households. Insecticidal efficacy of the Yahe® nets, expressed as the percent 24 h mortality in cone bioassays decreased from 91 to 45% within the first 6 months of distribution, even though > 90% of study nets had never been washed. Insecticidal efficacy decreased further to < 20% after 24 months. ITNs accumulated physical damage (holes) at a rate similar to previous studies, and 35% were classified as 'too torn' by proportional hole index after 24 months. ITNs were lost to follow-up such that 61% of cohort nets were still present after 24 months. Laboratory wash assays indicated a rapid reduction in insecticidal performance with each consecutive wash such that average 24 h mortality was below 20% after 10 washes.

CONCLUSION

Yahe® ITNs are not performing as per label claim in an area with fully pyrethroid susceptible vectors, and should be investigated more comprehensively and in other settings for compliance with currently recommended durability and efficacy thresholds. The mass distribution of low quality ITN products with variable performance is one of the major ongoing challenges for global malaria control in the last decade.

Physical and insecticidal durability of Interceptor®, Interceptor® G2, and PermaNet® 3.0 insecticide-treated nets in Burkina Faso: results of durability monitoring in three sites from 2019 to 2022

BACKGROUND

National Malaria Programmes (NMPs) monitor the durability of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) to inform procurement and replacement decisions. This is crucial for new dual active ingredients (AI) ITNs, for which less data is available. Pyrethroid-only ITN (Interceptor®) and dual AI (Interceptor® G2, and PermaNet® 3.0) ITNs were assessed across three health districts over 36 months in southern Burkina Faso to estimate median ITN survival, insecticidal efficacy, and to identify factors contributing to field ITN longevity.

METHODS

Durability was monitored through a prospective study of a cohort of nets distributed during the 2019 mass campaign. Three health districts were selected for their similar pyrethroid-resistance, environmental, epidemiological, and population profiles. Households were recruited after the mass campaign, with annual household questionnaire follow-ups over three years. Each round, ITNs were withdrawn for bioassays and chemical residue testing. Key measures were the percentage of cohort ITNs in serviceable condition, insecticidal effectiveness, and chemical residue content against target dose. Cox proportional hazard models were used to identify determinants influencing ITN survival.

RESULTS

At endline, the median useful life was 3.2 (95% CI 2.5-4.0) years for PermaNet® 3.0 ITNs in Orodara, 2.6 (95% CI 1.9-3.2) years for Interceptor® G2 ITNs in Banfora and 2.4 (95% CI 1.9-2.9) years for Interceptor® ITNs in Gaoua. Factors associated with ITN survival included cohort ITNs from Orodara (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 0.58, p = 0.026), households seeing less rodents (aHR = 0.66, p = 0.005), female-headed households (aHR = 0.66, p = 0.044), exposure to social behavior change (SBC) messages (aHR = 0.52, ≤ 0.001) and folding nets when not in use (aHR = 0.47, p < 0.001). At endline, PermaNet® 3.0 ITN recorded 24-h mortality of 26% against resistant mosquitos on roof panels, with an 84% reduction in PBO content. Interceptor® G2 ITN 72-h mortality was 51%, with a 67% reduction in chlorfenapyr content. Interceptor® ITN 24-h mortality was 71%, with an 84% reduction in alpha-cypermethrin content.

CONCLUSION

Only PermaNet® 3.0 ITNs surpassed the standard three-year survival threshold. Identified protective factors should inform SBC messaging. Significant decreases in chemical content and resulting impact on bioefficacy warrant more research in other countries to better understand dual AI ITN insecticidal performance.

Variation in spatial population structure in the Anopheles gambiae species complex

Anopheles gambiae, Anopheles coluzzii , and Anopheles arabiensis are three of the most widespread vectors of malaria parasites, with geographical ranges stretching across wide swaths of Africa. Understanding the population structure of these closely related species, including the extent to which populations are connected by gene flow, is essential for understanding how vector control implemented in one location might indirectly affect vector populations in other locations. Here, we assessed the population structure of each species based on whole-genome sequences from the third phase of the Anopheles gambiae 1000 Genomes Project. The data set included single nucleotide polymorphisms from whole genomes of 2,242 individual mosquitoes sampled from 119 locations across 19 African countries. We found that A. gambiae sampled from several countries in West and Central Africa showed low genetic differentiation from each other according to principal components analysis (PCA) and ADMIXTURE modeling. Using Estimated Effective Migration Surfaces (EEMS), we showed that this low genetic differentiation indicates high effective migration rates for A. gambiae across this region. Outside of this region, we found six groups of sampling locations from Central, East, and Southern Africa for which A. gambiae showed higher genetic differentiation, and lower effective migration rates, between each other and the West/Central Africa group. These results indicate that the barriers to and corridors for migration between populations of A. gambiae differ across the geographical range of this malaria vector species. Using the same methods, we found higher genetic differentiation and lower migration rates between populations of A. coluzzii in West and Central Africa than for A. gambiae in the same region. On the other hand, we found lower genetic differentiation and higher migration rates between populations of A. arabiensis in Tanzania, compared to A. gambiae in the same region. These differences between A. gambiae, A. coluzzii , and A. arabiensis indicate that migration barriers and corridors may vary between species, even for very closely related species. Overall, our results demonstrate that migration rates vary both between and within species of Anopheles mosquitoes, presumably based on species-specific responses to the ecological or environmental conditions that may impede or facilitate migration, and the geographical patterns of these conditions across the landscape. Together with previous findings, this study provides robust evidence that migration rates between populations of malaria vectors depend on the ecological context, which should be considered when planning surveillance of vector populations, monitoring for insecticide resistance, and evaluating interventions.

Genetic surveillance of insecticide resistance in African Anopheles populations to inform malaria vector control

Insecticide resistance in malaria vector populations poses a major threat to malaria control, which relies largely on insecticidal interventions. Contemporary vector-control strategies focus on combatting resistance using multiple insecticides with differing modes of action within the mosquito. However, diverse genetic resistance mechanisms are present in vector populations, and continue to evolve. Knowledge of the spatial distribution of these genetic mechanisms, and how they impact the efficacy of different insecticidal products, is critical to inform intervention deployment decisions. We developed a catalogue of genetic-resistance mechanisms in African malaria vectors that could guide molecular surveillance. We highlight situations where intervention deployment has led to resistance evolution and spread, and identify challenges in understanding and mitigating the epidemiological impacts of resistance.

Mosquito Bed Net Use and Burkitt Lymphoma Incidence in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Importance

Burkitt lymphoma (BL) is one of the most common childhood cancers in sub-Saharan Africa and is etiologically linked to malaria. However, evidence for an effect of malaria interventions on BL is limited.

Objective

To investigate the potential population-level association between large-scale rollout of insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) in sub-Saharan Africa in the 2000s and BL incidence.

Data Sources

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, a search was conducted in the Embase, Global Health, and Medline databases and in cancer registry publications between January 1, 1990, and February 27, 2023.

Study Selection

All epidemiologic studies on BL incidence rates in children and adolescents aged 0 to 15 years in sub-Saharan African countries where malaria is endemic were identified by 2 reviewers blinded to each other's decision.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

The systematic review was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses reporting guideline. Data were extracted independently by 2 reviewers, and quality was scored based on 3 predefined criteria: data collection, case ascertainment, and calculation of person-time at risk.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Incidence rates of BL during childhood and mean ITN use in the population. Data were analyzed using a random-effects negative binomial regression model.

Results

Of 2333 studies meeting selection criteria, 23 comprising 66 data points on BL incidence were included based on 5226 BL cases from locations with large-scale ITN use in 17 countries. Rates of BL were 44% (95% CI, 12%-64%) lower in the period after ITN introduction compared with before. The adjusted pooled incidence rates of BL were 1.36 (95% CI, 0.88-2.10) and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.50-1.16) per 100 000 person-years before and after introduction of ITNs, respectively. After adjusting for potential confounders, a 1-percentage point increase in mean ITN use in the population in the 10 years before BL data collection was associated with a 2% (95% CI, 1%-4%) reduction in BL incidence.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, large-scale rollout of ITNs in the 2000s was associated with a reduction in BL burden among children in sub-Saharan Africa. Although published data may not be representative of all incidence rates across sub-Saharan Africa, this study highlights a potential additional benefit of malaria control programs.

Trapping and killing performance of a PermaNet 2.0 hybrid mosquito trapping bednet: an experimental hut evaluation

Background

Despite the huge global effort , there has been an increase in malaria morbidity and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa since 2015, from 212 million cases and 429,000 deaths in 2015 to 241 million cases and 627,000 deaths in 2020 mainly because of resistance to insecticide. Therefore, advancing innovative approaches is the only sustainable way to fight malaria.

Methods

Taking advantage of the behavior of mosquitoes around the net, which is almost 70-90% concentrated on the roof, we have developed a two-compartment mosquito bednet, the so-called T-Net for mass mosquito trapping and killing. In the current study, we investigated in an experimental hut trial, the efficacy of trapping-long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (T-LLINs) against Anopheles gambiae s.l. in an insecticide resistance context. Five different arms have been considered in this study including three positive control arms e.g. PermaNet 2.0 LLIN, Tsara boost LLIN and Interceptor generation 2 (IG2) LLIN), one negative control arm using insecticide-free bednet, and one candidate arm using a hybrid-treated trapping bednet made with PermaNet 2.0 LLIN mounted with an insecticide-free compartment (T-LLIN).

Results

The highest average daily mortality was recorded with the T-LLIN. In total, 678 mosquitoes were killed by T-LLIN among the 760 collected, i.e. 89.2%. Out of these, 317 were found in the trap compartment, representing 46.75% of mortality directly attributable to the mechanical effect of this net. This added value made it possible to quantify the increased in the killing effect that this net would have over the positive control arms: this would be 58.5% higher than the killing effect of PN2.0, 38% higher than that of Tsara boost and 31.5% higher than that of IG2.

Conclusion

The current study shows potential to maximize the efficiency of the WHO-recommended LLINs by an addition of an insecticide-free trap compartment on top of the net.

Insecticide-treated bed nets and residual indoor spraying reduce malaria in areas with low transmission: a reanalysis of the Maltrials study

BACKGROUND

The malaria incidence data from a malaria prevention study from the Rift Valley, Central Ethiopia, were reanalysed. The objective was to investigate whether including an administrative structure within the society, which may have required consideration in the protocol or previous analysis, would provide divergent outcomes on the effect measures of the interventions.

METHODS

A cluster-randomized controlled trial lasting 121 weeks with 176 clusters in four groups with 6071 households with 34,548 persons was done: interventions combining indoor residual spraying (IRS) and insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), IRS alone, ITNs alone and routine use. The primary outcome was malaria incidence. A multilevel negative binomial regression model was employed to examine the impact of the kebele (smallest administrative unit) and the proximity of homes to the primary mosquito breeding sites as potential residual confounders (levels). The study also assessed whether these factors influenced the effect measures of the interventions.

RESULTS

The study's initial findings revealed 1183 malaria episodes among 1059 persons, with comparable effects observed across the four intervention groups. In the reanalysis, the results showed that both ITN + IRS (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.63, P < 0.001) and ITN alone (IRR 0.78, P = 0.011) were associated with a greater reduction in malaria cases compared to IRS (IRR 0.90; P = 0.28) or the control (reference) group. The combined usage of IRS with ITN yields better outcomes compared to the standalone use of ITN and surpasses the effectiveness of IRS in isolation.

CONCLUSION

The findings indicate that implementing a combination of IRS and ITN and also ITN alone decrease malaria incidence. Furthermore, there was an observed synergistic impact when ITN and IRS were used in combination. Considering relevant social structures as potential residual confounders is of paramount importance.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PACTR201411000882128 (08 September 2014).

Early morning anopheline mosquito biting, a potential driver of malaria transmission in Busia County, western Kenya

BACKGROUND

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) contributed significantly to the decline in malaria since 2000. Their protective efficacy depends not only on access, use, and net integrity, but also location of people within the home environment and mosquito biting profiles. Anopheline mosquito biting and human location data were integrated to identify potential gaps in protection and better understand malaria transmission dynamics in Busia County, western Kenya.

METHODS

Direct observation of human activities and human landing catches (HLC) were performed hourly between 1700 to 0700 h. Household members were recorded as home or away; and, if at home, as indoors/outdoors, awake/asleep, and under a net or not. Aggregated data was analysed by weighting hourly anopheline biting activity with human location. Standard indicators of human-vector interaction were calculated using a Microsoft Excel template.

RESULTS

There was no significant difference between indoor and outdoor biting for Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) (RR = 0.82; 95% CI 0.65-1.03); significantly fewer Anopheles funestus were captured outdoors than indoors (RR = 0.41; 95% CI 0.25-0.66). Biting peaked before dawn and extended into early morning hours when people began to awake and perform routine activities, between 0400-0700 h for An. gambiae and 0300-0700 h for An. funestus. The study population away from home peaked at 1700-1800 h (58%), gradually decreased and remained constant at 10% throughout the night, before rising again to 40% by 0600-0700 h. When accounting for resident location, nearly all bites within the peri-domestic space (defined as inside household structures and surrounding outdoor spaces) occurred indoors for unprotected people (98%). Using an ITN while sleeping was estimated to prevent 79% and 82% of bites for An. gambiae and An. funestus, respectively. For an ITN user, most remaining exposure to bites occurred indoors in the hours before bed and early morning.

CONCLUSION

While use of an ITN was estimated to prevent most vector bites in this context, results suggest gaps in protection, particularly in the early hours of the morning when biting peaks and many people are awake and active. Assessment of additional human exposure points, including outside of the peri-domestic setting, are needed to guide supplementary interventions for transmission reduction.

Challenges of proper disposal of old long-lasting insecticidal nets and its alternative uses in rural south-eastern Tanzania

INTRODUCTION

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), specifically long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), are the most commonly used, scalable, and cost-effective tools for controlling malaria transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. However, the multiple alternative uses of retired LLINs have been associated with poor disposal practices. The World Health Organization (WHO) has provided guidelines and recommendations for the proper management of worn-out LLINs. This study assessed the existing alternative uses and disposal practices of old LLINs.

METHODS

An explanatory sequential mixed-methods approach was used to assess LLINs existing alternative uses, disposal practices, knowledge, and perceptions regarding WHO recommendations on proper disposal of old LLINs among stakeholders in Kilombero and Ulanga districts, south-eastern Tanzania. A survey questionnaire was administered to 384 participants. Furthermore, the study employed focus group discussions (FGD) and key informant interviews (KII) to elucidate responses regarding existing disposal practices, associated challenges, and alternative uses of LLINs. The insights derived from both study components were subsequently used for inferential analysis.

RESULTS

The major challenge influencing the proper disposal of LLINs was limited awareness of how to properly dispose of them. Of the 384 people surveyed, 97.0% were not aware of the WHO recommendations for the proper disposal of old LLINs. All key informants were unaware of the WHO guidelines for proper disposal of old LLINs. The common methods used to dispose of LLINs were burning (30.7%), disposing them into garbage pits (14.8%), and alternative uses (12.2%). Of the 239 respondents with LLINs, 41.0% had alternative use, while 59.0% had no alternative use. The common alternative uses were ropes for tying or covering items (20.9%), garden fencing (7.5%), chicken coops (5.0%), and 7.5% for other minor alternative uses.

CONCLUSION

Strengthening awareness and education on proper LLIN disposal practices among community members and key stakeholders is essential for enhancing malaria control efforts and preventing environmental pollution.

Modeling resource allocation strategies for insecticide-treated bed nets to achieve malaria eradication

Large reductions in the global malaria burden have been achieved, but plateauing funding poses a challenge for progressing towards the ultimate goal of malaria eradication. Using previously published mathematical models of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax transmission incorporating insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) as an illustrative intervention, we sought to identify the global funding allocation that maximized impact under defined objectives and across a range of global funding budgets. The optimal strategy for case reduction mirrored an allocation framework that prioritizes funding for high-transmission settings, resulting in total case reductions of 76% and 66% at intermediate budget levels, respectively. Allocation strategies that had the greatest impact on case reductions were associated with lesser near-term impacts on the global population at risk. The optimal funding distribution prioritized high ITN coverage in high-transmission settings endemic for P. falciparum only, while maintaining lower levels in low-transmission settings. However, at high budgets, 62% of funding was targeted to low-transmission settings co-endemic for P. falciparum and P. vivax. These results support current global strategies to prioritize funding to high-burden P. falciparum-endemic settings in sub-Saharan Africa to minimize clinical malaria burden and progress towards elimination, but highlight a trade-off with 'shrinking the map' through a focus on near-elimination settings and addressing the burden of P. vivax.

Comparison of new computational methods for spatial modelling of malaria

BACKGROUND

Geostatistical analysis of health data is increasingly used to model spatial variation in malaria prevalence, burden, and other metrics. Traditional inference methods for geostatistical modelling are notoriously computationally intensive, motivating the development of newer, approximate methods for geostatistical analysis or, more broadly, computational modelling of spatial processes. The appeal of faster methods is particularly great as the size of the region and number of spatial locations being modelled increases.

METHODS

This work presents an applied comparison of four proposed 'fast' computational methods for spatial modelling and the software provided to implement them-Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA), tree boosting with Gaussian processes and mixed effect models (GPBoost), Fixed Rank Kriging (FRK) and Spatial Random Forests (SpRF). The four methods are illustrated by estimating malaria prevalence on two different spatial scales-country and continent. The performance of the four methods is compared on these data in terms of accuracy, computation time, and ease of implementation.

RESULTS

Two of these methods-SpRF and GPBoost-do not scale well as the data size increases, and so are likely to be infeasible for larger-scale analysis problems. The two remaining methods-INLA and FRK-do scale well computationally, however the resulting model fits are very sensitive to the user's modelling assumptions and parameter choices. The binomial observation distribution commonly used for disease prevalence mapping with INLA fails to account for small-scale overdispersion present in the malaria prevalence data, which can lead to poor predictions. Selection of an appropriate alternative such as the Beta-binomial distribution is required to produce a reliable model fit. The small-scale random effect term in FRK overcomes this pitfall, but FRK model estimates are very reliant on providing a sufficient number and appropriate configuration of basis functions. Unfortunately the computation time for FRK increases rapidly with increasing basis resolution.

CONCLUSIONS

INLA and FRK both enable scalable geostatistical modelling of malaria prevalence data. However care must be taken when using both methods to assess the fit of the model to data and plausibility of predictions, in order to select appropriate model assumptions and parameters.

Community evaluation of the physical and insecticidal durability of DuraNet® Plus, an alpha-cypermethrin and piperonyl butoxide incorporated mosquito net: protocol for a multi-country study in West, Central and East Africa

BACKGROUND

Pyrethroid-PBO nets have demonstrated improved impact against clinical malaria transmitted by pyrethroid resistant mosquito vectors and are being scaled up across Africa. However very little is known about their physical and insecticidal durability under operational conditions. This study will investigate the attrition, fabric integrity, insecticide content and bioefficacy of DuraNet® Plus, a new WHO prequalified alphacypermethrin and PBO incorporated net developed by Shobikaa Impex Private Limited over 3 years of field use in communities in Benin, Cameroon and Tanzania.

METHODS

The study will be conducted in parallel in selected villages in Zakpota District in Benin, Mbalmayo, District in Cameroon and Muheza District in Tanzania. In each country, ~ 1800 households will be recruited and randomised to receive DuraNet® Plus or DuraNet® (a WHO prequalified alphacypermethrin-only ITN). Follow up surveys will be performed at 1 month post distribution to investigate adverse events and subsequently every 6-12 months to assess ITN attrition and fabric integrity following standard WHO procedures. A second cohort of nets will be withdrawn every 6-12 months and assessed for alpha-cypermethrin and PBO content and for entomological activity in laboratory bioassays (cone bioassays and tunnel tests). Alpha-cypermethrin bioefficacy will be monitored using the susceptible Anopheles gambiae Kisumu strain in cone bioassays while PBO bioefficacy will be monitored using pyrethroid resistant strains with overexpressed P450 enzymes in tunnel tests to determine the proportion of efficacious nets (≥ 95% knockdown, ≥ 80% mortality or ≥ 90% blood feeding inhibition in tunnels) at each time point. Nets withdrawn at 12, 24 and 36 months from each country will also be tested in experimental hut trials against wild free-flying pyrethroid resistant Anopheles gambiae sl in Côvè Benin to investigate the superiority of DuraNet® Plus over DuraNet® at each time point under semi field conditions.

CONCLUSION

This large-scale multi country trial will provide useful information on the durability of a pyrethroid-PBO net (DuraNet® Plus) in 3 different regions in sub-Saharan Africa. The methods proposed for bioefficacy testing could also contribute towards the development of new standardised guidelines for monitoring the insecticidal efficacy of pyrethroid-PBO nets under operational conditions.

Changes in contributions of different Anopheles vector species to malaria transmission in east and southern Africa from 2000 to 2022

BACKGROUND

Malaria transmission in Africa is facilitated by multiple species of Anopheles mosquitoes. These vectors have different behaviors and vectorial capacities and are affected differently by vector control interventions, such as insecticide-treated nets and indoor residual spraying. This review aimed to assess changes in the contribution of different vector species to malaria transmission in east and southern Africa over 20 years of widespread insecticide-based vector control.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Global Health, and Web of Science online databases for articles published between January 2000 and April 2023 that provided species-specific sporozoite rates for different malaria vectors in east and southern Africa. We extracted data on study characteristics, biting rates, sporozoite infection proportions, and entomological inoculation rates (EIR). Using EIR data, the proportional contribution of each species to malaria transmission was estimated.

RESULTS

Studies conducted between 2000 and 2010 identified the Anopheles gambiae complex as the primary malaria vector, while studies conducted from 2011 to 2021 indicated the dominance of Anopheles funestus. From 2000 to 2010, in 57% of sites, An. gambiae demonstrated higher parasite infection prevalence than other Anopheles species. Anopheles gambiae also accounted for over 50% of EIR in 76% of the study sites. Conversely, from 2011 to 2021, An. funestus dominated with higher infection rates than other Anopheles in 58% of sites and a majority EIR contribution in 63% of sites. This trend coincided with a decline in overall EIR and the proportion of sporozoite-infected An. gambiae. The main vectors in the An. gambiae complex in the region were Anopheles arabiensis and An. gambiae sensu stricto (s.s.), while the important member of the An. funestus group was An. funestus s.s.

CONCLUSION

The contribution of different vector species in malaria transmission has changed over the past 20 years. As the role of An. gambiae has declined, An. funestus now appears to be dominant in most settings in east and southern Africa. Other secondary vector species may play minor roles in specific localities. To improve malaria control in the region, vector control should be optimized to match these entomological trends, considering the different ecologies and behaviors of the dominant vector species.

Community evaluation of VECTRON™ T500, a broflanilide insecticide, for indoor residual spraying for malaria vector control in central Benin; a two arm non-inferiority cluster randomised trial

VECTRON™ T500 is a wettable powder IRS formulation of broflanilide, a newly discovered insecticide. We performed a two-arm non-inferiority community randomised evaluation of VECTRON™ T500, compared to Fludora® Fusion against pyrethroid-resistant Anopheles gambiae s.l. in an area of high coverage with pyrethroid-only nets in the Za-Kpota District of central Benin. One round of IRS was applied in all consenting households in the study area. Sixteen clusters were randomised (1:1) to receive VECTRON™ T500 (100 mg/m2 for broflanilide) or Fludora® Fusion (200 mg/m2 for clothianidin and 25 mg/m2 for deltamethrin). Surveys were performed to assess adverse events and the operational feasibility and acceptability of VECTRON™ T500 among spray operators and household inhabitants. Human landing catches were conducted in 6 households every 1-2 months for up to 18 months post-intervention to assess the impact on vector densities, sporozoite rates and entomological inoculation rates. Bottle bioassays were performed to monitor vector susceptibility to pyrethroids, broflanilide and clothianidin. Monthly wall cone bioassays were conducted for 24 months to assess the residual efficacy of the IRS formulations using susceptible and pyrethroid-resistant An. gambiae s.l. A total of 26,562 female mosquitoes were collected during the study, of which 40% were An. gambiae s.l., the main malaria vector in the study area. The vector population showed high intensity pyrethroid resistance but was susceptible to broflanilide (6 µg/bottle) and clothianidin (90 µg/bottle). Using a non-inferiority margin of 50%, vector density indicated by the human biting rate (bites/person/night) was non-inferior in the VECTRON™ T500 arm compared to the Fludora® Fusion arm both indoors (0.846 bites/p/n in Fludora® Fusion arm vs. 0.741 bites/p/n in VECTRON™ T500 arm, IRR 0.54, 95% CI 0.22-1.35, p = 0.150) and outdoors (0.691 bites/p/n in Fludora® Fusion arm vs. 0.590 bites/p/n in VECTRON™ T500 clusters, IRR 0.75, 95% CI 0.41-1.38, p = 0.297). Sporozoite rates and entomological inoculation rates did not differ significantly between study arms (sporozoite rate: 0.9% vs 1.1%, p = 0. 0.746, EIR: 0.008 vs 0.006 infective bites per person per night, p = 0.589). Cone bioassay mortality with both VECTRON™ T500 and Fludora® Fusion was 100% for 24 months post-IRS application on both cement and mud treated house walls with both susceptible and pyrethroid-resistant strains of An. gambiae s.l. Perceived adverse events reported by spray operators and householders were generally very low (< 6%) in both study arms. VECTRON™ T500 was non-inferior to Fludora® Fusion in reducing the risk of malaria transmission by pyrethroid resistant vectors when applied for IRS in communities in central Benin. The insecticide showed prolonged residual efficacy on house walls, lasting over 24 months and had a high acceptability with homeowners. Community application of VECTRON™ T500 for IRS provides improved and prolonged control of pyrethroid resistant malaria vectors and enhances our capacity to manage insecticide resistance.

Evaluating the attrition, fabric integrity and insecticidal durability of two dual active ingredient nets (Interceptor® G2 and Royal® Guard): methodology for a prospective study embedded in a cluster randomized controlled trial in Benin

BACKGROUND

Following the World Health Organization (WHO) endorsement of dual active ingredient (AI) nets, an increased uptake of pyrethroid-chlorfenapyr and pyrethroid-pyriproxyfen nets is expected. Studies evaluating their physical and insecticidal durability are essential for making programmatic and procurement decisions. This paper describes the methodology for a prospective study to evaluate the attrition, fabric integrity, insecticidal durability of Interceptor® G2 (alpha-cypermethrin-chlorfenapyr) and Royal Guard® (alpha-cypermethrin-pyriproxyfen), compared to Interceptor® (alpha-cypermethrin), embedded in a 3-arm cluster randomized controlled trial (cRCT) in the Zou Department of Benin.

METHODS

Ten clusters randomly selected from each arm of the cRCT will be used for the study. A total of 750 ITNs per type will be followed in 5 study clusters per arm to assess ITN attrition and fabric integrity at 6-, 12-, 24- and 36-months post distribution, using standard WHO procedures. A second cohort of 1800 nets per type will be withdrawn every 6 months from all 10 clusters per arm and assessed for chemical content and biological activity in laboratory bioassays at each time point. Alpha-cypermethrin bioefficacy in Interceptor® and Royal Guard® will be monitored in WHO cone bioassays and tunnel tests using the susceptible Anopheles gambiae Kisumu strain. The bioefficacy of the non-pyrethroid insecticides (chlorfenapyr in Interceptor® G2 and pyriproxyfen in Royal Guard®) will be monitored using the pyrethroid-resistant Anopheles coluzzii Akron strain. Chlorfenapyr activity will be assessed in tunnel tests while pyriproxyfen activity will be assessed in cone bioassays in terms of the reduction in fertility of blood-fed survivors observed by dissecting mosquito ovaries. Nets withdrawn at 12, 24 and 36 months will be tested in experimental hut trials within the cRCT study area against wild free-flying pyrethroid resistant An. gambiae sensu lato to investigate their superiority to Interceptor® and to compare them to ITNs washed 20 times for experimental hut evaluation studies. Mechanistic models will also be used to investigate whether entomological outcomes with each dual ITN type in experimental hut trials can predict their epidemiological performance in the cRCT.

CONCLUSION

This study will provide information on the durability of two dual AI nets (Interceptor® G2 and Royal Guard®) in Benin and will help identify suitable methods for monitoring the durability of their insecticidal activity under operational conditions. The modelling component will determine the capacity of experimental hut trials to predict the epidemiological performance of dual AI nets across their lifespan.

Effectiveness of health education interventions to improve malaria knowledge and insecticide-treated nets usage among populations of sub-Saharan Africa: systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

Malaria health education intervention is a community-directed approach that has long been considered important in preventing malaria in sub-Saharan Africa. However, its effectiveness is being questioned due to a lack of strong evidence. We aim to synthesize the evidence of the impact of health education on malaria knowledge and insecticide-treated nets (ITN) usage. Specifically, we analyzed the odds of correctly answering malaria-related questions and the odds of using ITN between the intervention and control groups.

Methods

Experimental and observational studies conducted in sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2021 which had quantitatively evaluated the impact of health education interventions on malaria knowledge and ITN usage were included in the review.

Results

A total of 11 studies (20,523 participants) were included. Four studies used educational interventions to teach appropriate ITN strategies and promote ITN usage. Two others focused on improving knowledge of malaria transmission, prevention, treatment, and its signs and symptoms. The remaining five studies assessed both ITN use and malaria knowledge. Of these, 10 were eligible for meta-analysis. On average, the odds of a person in the intervention group reporting better malaria knowledge (odds ratio 1.30, 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.70, p = 0.05) and higher ITN usage (odds ratio 1.53, 95% CI: 1.02 to 2.29, p = 0.004) increased significantly after receiving health education interventions compared to those in the control group. The odds of ITN usage also substantially increased when the interventions were based on a theory or model (odds ratio 5.27, 95% CI: 3.24 to 8.58, p = 0.05).

Discussion

Our review highlights sub-Saharan Africa's various health education strategies to curb malaria over the past two decades. Meta-analysis findings show that health education interventions are moderately effective in improving malaria knowledge and ITN usage and have contributed to the effort of global malaria strategy.

Successful implementation of ITN distribution through health facilities in Ghana

BACKGROUND

Global efforts to reduce malaria burden include distribution of insecticide-treated mosquito nets through mass campaigns and routine channels. Ghana's National Malaria Elimination Programme (NMEP) distributes insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) through various channels, including to pregnant women at antenatal care (ANC) visits and children at vaccination visits through child welfare clinics (CWC). This study assessed historical ITN distribution throughout ANCs and CWCs across Ghana and the characteristics of high performing facilities.

METHODS

Monthly data on routine ITN distribution was provided from Ghana's national health information management system for the years 2016-2021. Analyses were conducted to assess the performance of ITN distribution at ANC and CWC across time, ecological zone, regions, districts, facility ownership, and facility type. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were performed to predict the odds of ANC and CWC issuing rates greater or equal to 80% for a given facility type or ownership.

RESULTS

In 2021, 93% of women who attended their first antenatal care visit and 92% of children under five who received their second dose of the measles-rubella vaccine (MR2) had received an ITN. At the regional level, 94% of regions (n = 15/16) maintained the NSP target issuing rate of 80% throughout 2020 and 2021. While there were no clear differences in issuing rates between ecological zones, district-level differences were present across the six years. All health facility types performed at or above 80% in 2021 for both ANC and CWC. Odds ratios demonstrated differences in the likelihood of meeting the 80% issuing rate goal among different facility types as well as private versus public ownership when comparing ANC and CWC.

CONCLUSION

By 2021, Ghana had improved its ITN issuing rates since the initial year of analysis, surpassing the 80% target by issuing nets to over 90% of pregnant women and young children attending ANC and CWC. Future work can explore the reasons for national and subnational differences in issuing rates as well as help understand additional characteristics of high performing facilities. Additionally, it is necessary to identify and expand on the drivers for improved performance over the time period.

How many mosquito nets are needed to maintain universal coverage: an update

BACKGROUND

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) have served as the cornerstone of malaria vector control in sub-Saharan Africa for the past two decades. Over 2.5 billion ITNs have been delivered since 2004 primarily through periodic mass distribution campaigns scheduled at approximately three-year intervals, aligning with the expected lifespan of nets. Recent work indicates that ITN retention times are less than two years in most countries, raising key questions for quantification approaches and delivery frequency for ITN distribution. This paper models several quantification approaches for five typical ITN distribution strategies, estimates the proportion of the population with access to an ITN, and presents recommended quantification approaches to meet global targets for ITN access and use.

METHODS

A stock and flow model with annual timesteps was used to model ITN distribution and resulting ITN access for 2020-2035 under five scenarios in 40 countries: (1) three-year mass campaigns, (2) full-scale annual continuous distribution, (3) three-year mass campaigns plus continuous distribution in the years between campaigns, (4) three-year mass campaigns at different quantification approaches, (5) two-year mass campaigns at different quantification approaches. All scenarios included ITN distribution to pregnant women at antenatal clinics and infants at immunization visits.

RESULTS

The current status quo of conducting mass campaigns every three years using a population/1.8 quantifier is insufficient to achieve or maintain targets of 80% population access to ITNs in most malaria-endemic countries, given most estimated retention times are less than three years. Tailored three- or two-year mass campaigns were less efficient than annual continuous distribution strategies in nearly all settings. For countries with at least 2.5 year median ITN retention times, full scale continuous distribution provided better ITN access while needing 20-23% fewer ITNs compared to current mass campaigns.

CONCLUSION

Given variation in ITN retention times across countries, tailored quantification approaches for mass campaigns and continuous distribution strategies are warranted. Continuous distribution strategies are likely to offer more efficient ways to maintain ITN coverage, with fewer nets, where ITN retention times are at least two and a half years. National malaria programmes and their funding partners should work to increase the number of ITNs available to those vulnerable to malaria, while at the same time working to extend the useful life of these critical commodities.

Climate variability, socio-economic conditions and vulnerability to malaria infections in Mozambique 2016-2018: a spatial temporal analysis

Background

Temperature, precipitation, relative humidity (RH), and Normalized Different Vegetation Index (NDVI), influence malaria transmission dynamics. However, an understanding of interactions between socioeconomic indicators, environmental factors and malaria incidence can help design interventions to alleviate the high burden of malaria infections on vulnerable populations. Our study thus aimed to investigate the socioeconomic and climatological factors influencing spatial and temporal variability of malaria infections in Mozambique.

Methods

We used monthly malaria cases from 2016 to 2018 at the district level. We developed an hierarchical spatial-temporal model in a Bayesian framework. Monthly malaria cases were assumed to follow a negative binomial distribution. We used integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) in R for Bayesian inference and distributed lag nonlinear modeling (DLNM) framework to explore exposure-response relationships between climate variables and risk of malaria infection in Mozambique, while adjusting for socioeconomic factors.

Results

A total of 19,948,295 malaria cases were reported between 2016 and 2018 in Mozambique. Malaria risk increased with higher monthly mean temperatures between 20 and 29°C, at mean temperature of 25°C, the risk of malaria was 3.45 times higher (RR 3.45 [95%CI: 2.37-5.03]). Malaria risk was greatest for NDVI above 0.22. The risk of malaria was 1.34 times higher (1.34 [1.01-1.79]) at monthly RH of 55%. Malaria risk reduced by 26.1%, for total monthly precipitation of 480 mm (0.739 [95%CI: 0.61-0.90]) at lag 2 months, while for lower total monthly precipitation of 10 mm, the risk of malaria was 1.87 times higher (1.87 [1.30-2.69]). After adjusting for climate variables, having lower level of education significantly increased malaria risk (1.034 [1.014-1.054]) and having electricity (0.979 [0.967-0.992]) and sharing toilet facilities (0.957 [0.924-0.991]) significantly reduced malaria risk.

Conclusion

Our current study identified lag patterns and association between climate variables and malaria incidence in Mozambique. Extremes in climate variables were associated with an increased risk of malaria transmission, peaks in transmission were varied. Our findings provide insights for designing early warning, prevention, and control strategies to minimize seasonal malaria surges and associated infections in Mozambique a region where Malaria causes substantial burden from illness and deaths.

Application of mathematical modelling to inform national malaria intervention planning in Nigeria

BACKGROUND

For their 2021-2025 National Malaria Strategic Plan (NMSP), Nigeria's National Malaria Elimination Programme (NMEP), in partnership with the World Health Organization (WHO), developed a targeted approach to intervention deployment at the local government area (LGA) level as part of the High Burden to High Impact response. Mathematical models of malaria transmission were used to predict the impact of proposed intervention strategies on malaria burden.

METHODS

An agent-based model of Plasmodium falciparum transmission was used to simulate malaria morbidity and mortality in Nigeria's 774 LGAs under four possible intervention strategies from 2020 to 2030. The scenarios represented the previously implemented plan (business-as-usual), the NMSP at an 80% or higher coverage level and two prioritized plans according to the resources available to Nigeria. LGAs were clustered into 22 epidemiological archetypes using monthly rainfall, temperature suitability index, vector abundance, pre-2010 parasite prevalence, and pre-2010 vector control coverage. Routine incidence data were used to parameterize seasonality in each archetype. Each LGA's baseline malaria transmission intensity was calibrated to parasite prevalence in children under the age of five years measured in the 2010 Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS). Intervention coverage in the 2010-2019 period was obtained from the Demographic and Health Survey, MIS, the NMEP, and post-campaign surveys.

RESULTS

Pursuing a business-as-usual strategy was projected to result in a 5% and 9% increase in malaria incidence in 2025 and 2030 compared with 2020, while deaths were projected to remain unchanged by 2030. The greatest intervention impact was associated with the NMSP scenario with 80% or greater coverage of standard interventions coupled with intermittent preventive treatment in infants and extension of seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) to 404 LGAs, compared to 80 LGAs in 2019. The budget-prioritized scenario with SMC expansion to 310 LGAs, high bed net coverage with new formulations, and increase in effective case management rate at the same pace as historical levels was adopted as an adequate alternative for the resources available.

CONCLUSIONS

Dynamical models can be applied for relative assessment of the impact of intervention scenarios but improved subnational data collection systems are required to allow increased confidence in predictions at sub-national level.

An archetypes approach to malaria intervention impact mapping: a new framework and example application

BACKGROUND

As both mechanistic and geospatial malaria modeling methods become more integrated into malaria policy decisions, there is increasing demand for strategies that combine these two methods. This paper introduces a novel archetypes-based methodology for generating high-resolution intervention impact maps based on mechanistic model simulations. An example configuration of the framework is described and explored.

METHODS

First, dimensionality reduction and clustering techniques were applied to rasterized geospatial environmental and mosquito covariates to find archetypal malaria transmission patterns. Next, mechanistic models were run on a representative site from each archetype to assess intervention impact. Finally, these mechanistic results were reprojected onto each pixel to generate full maps of intervention impact. The example configuration used ERA5 and Malaria Atlas Project covariates, singular value decomposition, k-means clustering, and the Institute for Disease Modeling's EMOD model to explore a range of three-year malaria interventions primarily focused on vector control and case management.

RESULTS

Rainfall, temperature, and mosquito abundance layers were clustered into ten transmission archetypes with distinct properties. Example intervention impact curves and maps highlighted archetype-specific variation in efficacy of vector control interventions. A sensitivity analysis showed that the procedure for selecting representative sites to simulate worked well in all but one archetype.

CONCLUSION

This paper introduces a novel methodology which combines the richness of spatiotemporal mapping with the rigor of mechanistic modeling to create a multi-purpose infrastructure for answering a broad range of important questions in the malaria policy space. It is flexible and adaptable to a range of input covariates, mechanistic models, and mapping strategies and can be adapted to the modelers' setting of choice.

Modelling the relative cost-effectiveness of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine compared to investment in vector control or chemoprophylaxis

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization has recommended a 4-dose schedule of the RTS,S/AS01 (RTS,S) vaccine for children in regions of moderate to high P. falciparum transmission. Faced with limited supply and finite resources, global funders and domestic malaria control programs will need to examine the relative cost-effectiveness of RTS,S and identify target areas for vaccine implementation relative to scale-up of existing interventions.

METHODS

Using an individual-based mathematical model of P. falciparum, we modelled the cost-effectiveness of RTS,S across a range of settings in sub-Saharan Africa, incorporating various rainfall patterns, insecticide-treated net (ITN) use, treatment coverage, and parasite prevalence bands. We compare age-based and seasonal RTS,S administration to increasing ITN usage, switching to next generation ITNs in settings experiencing insecticide-resistance, and introduction of seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) in areas of seasonal transmission.

RESULTS

For RTS,S to be the most cost-effective intervention option considered, the maximum cost per dose was less than $9.30 USD in 90.9% of scenarios. Nearly all (89.8%) values at or above $9.30 USD per dose were in settings with 60% established bed net use and / or with established SMC, and 76.3% were in the highest PfPR_2-10 band modelled (40%). Addition of RTS,S to strategies involving 60% ITN use, increased ITN usage or a switch to PBO nets, and SMC, if eligible, still led to significant marginal case reductions, with a median of 2,653 (IQR: 1,741 to 3,966) cases averted per 100,000 people annually, and 82,270 (IQR: 54,034 to 123,105) cases averted per 100,000 fully vaccinated children (receiving at least three doses).

CONCLUSIONS

Use of RTS,S results in reductions in malaria cases and deaths even when layered upon existing interventions. When comparing relative cost-effectiveness, scale up of ITNs, introduction of SMC, and switching to new technology nets should be prioritized in eligible settings.

Assessing Geographic Overlap between Zero-Dose Diphtheria–Tetanus–Pertussis Vaccination Prevalence and Other Health Indicators

The integration of immunization with other essential health services is among the strategic priorities of the Immunization Agenda 2030 and has the potential to improve the effectiveness, efficiency, and equity of health service delivery. This study aims to evaluate the degree of spatial overlap between the prevalence of children who have never received a dose of the diphtheria–tetanus–pertussis-containing vaccine (no-DTP) and other health-related indicators, to provide insight into the potential for joint geographic targeting of integrated service delivery efforts. Using geospatially modeled estimates of vaccine coverage and comparator indicators, we develop a framework to delineate and compare areas of high overlap across indicators, both within and between countries, and based upon both counts and prevalence. We derive summary metrics of spatial overlap to facilitate comparison between countries and indicators and over time. As an example, we apply this suite of analyses to five countries—Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Indonesia, Ethiopia, and Angola—and five comparator indicators—children with stunting, under-5 mortality, children missing doses of oral rehydration therapy, prevalence of lymphatic filariasis, and insecticide-treated bed net coverage. Our results demonstrate substantial heterogeneity in the geographic overlap both within and between countries. These results provide a framework to assess the potential for joint geographic targeting of interventions, supporting efforts to ensure that all people, regardless of location, can benefit from vaccines and other essential health services.

Evaluating COVID-19-Related Disruptions to Effective Malaria Case Management in 2020-2021 and Its Potential Effects on Malaria Burden in Sub-Saharan Africa

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to far-reaching disruptions to health systems, including preventative and curative services for malaria. The aim of this study was to estimate the magnitude of disruptions in malaria case management in sub-Saharan Africa and their impact on malaria burden during the COVID-19 pandemic. We used survey data collected by the World Health Organization, in which individual country stakeholders reported on the extent of disruptions to malaria diagnosis and treatment. The relative disruption values were then applied to estimates of antimalarial treatment rates and used as inputs to an established spatiotemporal Bayesian geostatistical framework to generate annual malaria burden estimates with case management disruptions. This enabled an estimation of the additional malaria burden attributable to pandemic-related impacts on treatment rates in 2020 and 2021. Our analysis found that disruptions in access to antimalarial treatment in sub-Saharan Africa likely resulted in approximately 5.9 (4.4-7.2 95% CI) million more malaria cases and 76 (20-132) thousand additional deaths in the 2020-2021 period within the study region, equivalent to approximately 1.2% (0.3-2.1 95% CI) greater clinical incidence of malaria and 8.1% (2.1-14.1 95% CI) greater malaria mortality than expected in the absence of the disruptions to malaria case management. The available evidence suggests that access to antimalarials was disrupted to a significant degree and should be considered an area of focus to avoid further escalations in malaria morbidity and mortality. The results from this analysis were used to estimate cases and deaths in the World Malaria Report 2022 during the pandemic years.

The interplay between malaria vectors and human activity accounts for high residual malaria transmission in a Burkina Faso village with universal ITN coverage

BACKGROUND

Mosquito and human behaviour interaction is a key determinant of the maximum level of protection against malaria that can be provided by insecticide-treated nets (ITNs). Nevertheless, scant literature focuses on this interaction, overlooking a fundamental factor for efficient malaria control. This study aims to estimate malaria transmission risk in a Burkina Faso village by integrating vector biting rhythms with some key information about human habits.

METHODS

Indoor/outdoor human landing catches were conducted for 16 h (16:00-08:00) during 8 nights (September 2020) in Goden village. A survey about net usage and sleeping patterns was submitted to half the households (October-December 2020). A subsample of collected specimens of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato was molecularly processed for species identification, Plasmodium detection from heads-thoraxes and L1014F pyrethroid-resistance allele genotyping. Hourly mosquito abundance was statistically assessed by GLM/GAM, and the entomological inoculation rate (EIR) was corrected for the actual ITN usage retrieved from the questionnaire.

RESULTS

Malaria transmission was mainly driven by Anopheles coluzzii (68.7%) followed by A. arabiensis (26.2%). The overall sporozoite rate was 2% with L1014F estimated frequency of 0.68 (N = 1070 out of 15,201 A. gambiae s.l. collected). No major shift in mosquito biting rhythms in response to ITN or differences between indoor and outdoor catches were detected. Impressive high biting pressure (mean 30.3 mosquitoes/person/hour) was exerted from 20:00 to 06:00 with a peak at 4:00. Human survey revealed that nearly all inhabitants were awake before 20:00 and after 7:00 and at least 8.7% had no access to bednets. Adjusting for anthropological data, the EIR dropped from 6.7 to 1.2 infective bites/person/16 h. In a scenario of full net coverage and accounting only for the human sleeping patterns, the daily malaria transmission risk not targetable by ITNs was 0.69 infective bites.

CONCLUSIONS

The high mosquito densities and interplay between human/vector activities means that an estimated 10% of residual malaria transmission cannot be prevented by ITNs in the village. Locally tailored studies, like the current one, are essential to explore the heterogeneity of human exposure to infective bites and, consequently, to instruct the adoption of new vector control tools strengthening individual and community protection.

Reported reasons for non-use of insecticide-treated nets in large national household surveys, 2009-2021

BACKGROUND

Insecticide-treated nets (ITN) are the cornerstone of modern malaria vector control, with nearly 3 billion ITNs delivered to households in endemic areas since 2000. ITN access, i.e. availability within the household, based on the number of ITNs and number of household members, is a pre-requisite for ITN use. Factors determining ITN use are frequently examined in published literature, but to date, large household survey data on reasons given for non-use of nets have not been explored.

METHODS

A total of 156 DHS, MIS, and MICS surveys conducted between 2003 and 2021 were reviewed for questions on reasons why nets were not used the previous night, identifying twenty-seven surveys. The percent of nets that were reported used the previous night was calculated for the 156 surveys, and frequencies and proportions of reasons for non-use were calculated within the twenty-seven surveys. Results were stratified by household supply of ITNs in three categories (not enough", "enough", and "more than enough") and by residence (urban/rural).

RESULTS

The proportion of nets used the previous night averaged over 70% between 2003 and 2021, with no discernible change over this period. Reported reasons for why a net goes unused fell largely into three categories-nets that are extra/being saved for future use; the perception that there is little risk of malaria (particularly in dry season); and "other" responses. Net attributes such as colour, size, shape, and texture, and concerns related to chemicals were the least frequent reasons given. Reasons for non-use of nets varied by household net supply, and in some surveys by residence. In Senegal's continuous DHS, the proportion of nets used peaked during high transmission season, and the proportion of nets that went unused due to "no/few mosquitoes" peaked during the dry season.

CONCLUSIONS

Unused nets were primarily those being saved for later use, or were not used due to perceived low risk of malaria. Classifying reasons for non-use into broader categories facilitates the design of appropriate social and behaviour change interventions to address the major underlying reasons for non-use, where this is feasible.

Quantifying the direct and indirect protection provided by insecticide treated bed nets against malaria

Long lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) provide both direct and indirect protection against malaria. As pyrethroid resistance evolves in mosquito vectors, it will be useful to understand how the specific benefits LLINs afford individuals and communities may be affected. Here we use modelling to show that there is no minimum LLIN usage needed for users and non-users to benefit from community protection. Modelling results also indicate that pyrethroid resistance in local mosquitoes will likely diminish the direct and indirect benefits from insecticides, leaving the barrier effects intact, but LLINs are still expected to provide enhanced benefit over untreated nets even at high levels of pyrethroid resistance.

Small-scale field evaluation of transfluthrin-treated eave ribbons and sandals for the control of malaria vectors in rural Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Early-evening and outdoor-biting mosquitoes may compromise the effectiveness of frontline malaria interventions, notably insecticide-treated nets (ITNs). This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of low-cost insecticide-treated eave ribbons and sandals as supplementary interventions against indoor-biting and outdoor-biting mosquitoes in south-eastern Tanzania, where ITNs are already widely used.

METHODS

This study was conducted in three villages, with 72 households participating (24 households per village). The households were divided into four study arms and assigned: transfluthrin-treated sandals (TS), transfluthrin-treated eave ribbons (TER), a combination of TER and TS, or experimental controls. Each arm had 18 households, and all households received new ITNs. Mosquitoes were collected using double net traps (to assess outdoor biting), CDC light traps (to assess indoor biting), and Prokopack aspirators (to assess indoor resting). Protection provided by the interventions was evaluated by comparing mosquito densities between the treatment and control arms. Additional tests were done in experimental huts to assess the mortality of wild mosquitoes exposed to the treatments or controls.

RESULTS

TERs reduced indoor-biting, indoor-resting and outdoor-biting Anopheles arabiensis by 60%, 73% and 41%, respectively, while TS reduced the densities by 18%, 40% and 42%, respectively. When used together, TER & TS reduced indoor-biting, indoor-resting and outdoor-biting An. arabiensis by 53%, 67% and 57%, respectively. Protection against Anopheles funestus ranged from 42 to 69% with TER and from 57 to 74% with TER & TS combined. Mortality of field-collected mosquitoes exposed to TER, TS or both interventions was 56-78% for An. arabiensis and 47-74% for An. funestus.

CONCLUSION

Transfluthrin-treated eave ribbons and sandals or their combination can offer significant household-level protection against malaria vectors. Their efficacy is magnified by the transfluthrin-induced mortality, which was observed despite the prevailing pyrethroid resistance in the study area. These results suggest that TER and TS could be useful supplementary tools against residual malaria transmission in areas where ITN coverage is high but additional protection is needed against early-evening and outdoor-biting mosquitoes. Further research is needed to validate the performance of these tools in different settings, and assess their long-term effectiveness and feasibility for malaria control.

Effect of long-lasting insecticidal nets with and without piperonyl butoxide on malaria indicators in Uganda (LLINEUP): final results of a cluster-randomised trial embedded in a national distribution campaign

BACKGROUND

Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) are the foundation of malaria control but resistance of mosquito vectors to pyrethroids threatens their effectiveness. We embedded a cluster-randomised trial into Uganda's 2017-18 campaign to distribute LLINs. LLINs with piperonyl butoxide (PBO) reduced parasite prevalence more effectively than conventional LLINs (without PBO) for 18 months. Here, we report the final 25-month survey results.

METHODS

LLINEUP was a cluster-randomised trial conducted in 48 districts in eastern and western Uganda. 104 health subdistricts (clusters) without ongoing or planned indoor residual spraying with pirimiphos-methyl (Actellic, Basel, Switzerland) were eligible for inclusion in the trial. Clusters were randomly assigned to PBO LLINs (PermaNet 3.0 or Olyset Plus) and conventional LLINs (PermaNet 2.0 or Olyset Net) with proportionate randomisation using STATA version 14.2. LLINs were delivered from March 25, 2017, to March 18, 2018. Between April 23, 2019, and Sept 13, 2019, community surveys were conducted in 50 randomly selected households per cluster; ten households per cluster were randomly selected for entomology surveys. Mosquitoes were collected in the morning from indoor surfaces of households using Prokopack aspirators. Due to COVID-19 restrictions, only 90 of the 104 clusters were surveyed at 25 months. The primary outcome was parasite prevalence by microscopy in children aged 2-10 years, assessed in the as-treated population, determined using the results from the 6-month household survey on the type of LLINs received in each cluster. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN17516395, and is now completed.

FINDINGS

In the as-treated analysis, two clusters were excluded (no predominant LLIN received) and four were reassigned; 40 PBO LLIN clusters (30 PermaNet 3.0, ten Olyset Plus) and 48 non-PBO LLIN (36 PermaNet 2.0, 12 Olyset Net) were included. Parasite prevalence was 17·1% (506 of 2958 participants) in the PBO group and 19·8% (701 of 3534) in the non-PBO group (prevalence ratio adjusted for baseline 0·80 [95% CI 0·69-0·93], p=0·0048). Comparing within-treatment group parasite prevalence to baseline, parasite prevalence ratios were lower in the PBO groups at all timepoints, but the difference was greatest at 6 months (PBO LLINs parasite prevalence at baseline 28·8% [1001 of 3472, 95% CI 27·3-30·4] vs at 6 months 12·0% [361 of 3009, 10·9-13·2], prevalence ratio [PR] 0·43 [95% CI 0·36-0·52], p<0·0001; non-PBO LLINs parasite prevalence at baseline 25·4% [1015 of 4004, 24·0-26·7] vs 6 months 14·8% [526 of 3551, 13·7-16·0], PR 0·60 [0·54-0·68], p<0·0001) and 25 months (PBO LLINs parasite prevalence at 25 months 17·1% [506 of 2958, 15·8-18·5], PR 0·63 [95% CI 0·57-0·71], p<0·0001; non-PBO LLINs parasite prevalence at 25 months 19·8% [701 of 3534, 18·5-21·2], PR 0·79 [0·73-0·86], p<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

In Uganda, PBO LLINs outperformed pyrethroid-only LLINs for 25 months. WHO concluded that PBO LLINs are more effective against malaria than non-PBO LLINs when resistance to pyrethroids is high and issued a conditional recommendation suggesting PBO LLINs should be deployed in areas of pyrethroid resistance.

FUNDING

The Against Malaria Foundation, UK Department for International Development, Innovative Vector Control Consortium, and Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Multi-country evaluation of the durability of pyrethroid plus piperonyl-butoxide insecticide-treated nets: study protocol

BACKGROUND

Mass distributions of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) have contributed to large reductions in the malaria burden. However, this success is in jeopardy due in part to the increasing pyrethroid-resistant mosquito population as well as low LLINs coverage in various areas because the lifespan of LLINs is often shorter than the interval between replenishment campaigns. New insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) containing pyrethroid and piperonyl-butoxide (PBO) have shown a greater reduction in the incidence of malaria than pyrethroid LLINs in areas with pyrethroid-resistant mosquitoes. However, the durability (attrition, bio-efficacy, physical integrity and chemical retainment) of pyrethroid-PBO ITNs under operational settings has not been fully characterized. This study will measure the durability of pyrethroid-PBO ITNs to assess whether they meet the World Health Organization (WHO) three years of operational performance criteria required to be categorized as "long-lasting".

METHODS

A prospective household randomized controlled trial will be conducted simultaneously in Tanzania, India and Côte d'Ivoire to estimate the field durability of three pyrethroid-PBO ITNs (Veeralin®, Tsara® Boost, and Olyset® Plus) compared to a pyrethroid LLIN: MAGNet®. Durability monitoring will be conducted up to 36 months post-distribution and median survival in months will be calculated. The proportion of ITNs: (1) lost (attrition), (2) physical integrity, (3) resistance to damage score, (4) meeting WHO bio-efficacy (≥ 95% knockdown after 1 h or ≥ 80% mortality after 24 h for WHO cone bioassay, or ≥ 90% blood-feeding inhibition or ≥ 80% mortality after 24 h for WHO Tunnel tests) criteria against laboratory-reared resistant and susceptible mosquitoes, and insecticidal persistence over time will be estimated. The non-inferiority of Veeralin® and Tsara® Boost to the first-in-class, Olyset® Plus will additionally be assessed for mortality, and the equivalence of 20 times washed ITNs compared to field aged ITNs will be assessed for mortality and blood-feeding inhibition endpoints in the Ifakara Ambient Chamber Test, Tanzania.

CONCLUSION

This will be the first large-scale prospective household randomized controlled trial of pyrethroid-PBO ITNs in three different countries in East Africa, West Africa and South Asia, simultaneously. The study will generate information on the replenishment intervals for PBO nets.

Factors associated with the ownership and use of insecticide-treated nets in Guinea: an analysis of the 2018 Demographic and Health Survey

BACKGROUND

Malaria is a leading cause of outpatient visits and deaths among children in Guinea. Despite several mass distribution campaigns of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) in Guinea, ITN ownership and use remain low. Identifying the underlying factors affecting household ITN ownership and ITN usage among those with access will allow the Guinea National Malaria Control Programme to develop targeted initiatives to improve bed net ownership and usage.

METHODS

To understand national and regional drivers of ITN ownership and use, multivariable binary logistic regression models were applied to data from the 2018 Demographic and Health Survey to identify risk factors of household ITN ownership and risk factors of ITN use among individuals with access. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) was used for model parameter selection. Odds ratios were estimated with corresponding 95% confidence intervals.

RESULTS

The proportion of households in Guinea with at least one ITN was 44%, ranging from a low of 25% in Conakry to a high of 54% in Labé. Use of ITNs among those with access was 66.1% nationally, ranging from 35.2% in Labé to 89.7% in N'zérékoré. Risk factors for household ITN ownership were household size, marital status of the household head, education level of the household head, and region. For ITN use among those with access, risk factors were age, wealth quintile, marital status, and region. In the seven regions of Guinea and capital of Conakry, risk factors for household ITN ownership were household size in Boké, Faranah, and Kankan; education level of the household head in Boké, Faranah, and N'zérékoré; age of the household head in Conakry and Labé; children under five in the household in Kankan; and wealth quintile in Mamou. For ITN use among those with access, risk factors were marital status in Conakry, Faranah, Kindia, Labé, Mamou, and N'zérékoré; place of residence in Labé; children under five in the household in Labé; wealth quintile in Mamou; and age in Faranah and N'zérékoré.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis identified national and region-specific factors that affect ownership and use among those with access in Guinea. Future ITN and social-behavioural change campaigns in Guinea may particularly want to target larger households, households without children, and areas with lower perceived risk of malaria if universal coverage and usage are to be achieved for optimal malaria prevention.

Estimating population ITN access at council level in Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Since 2013, the National Malaria Control Programme in mainland Tanzania and the Zanzibar Malaria Elimination Programme have implemented mass insecticide-treated net (ITN) distribution campaigns, routine ITN distribution to pregnant women and infants, and continuous distribution through primary schools (mainland) and community leaders (Zanzibar) to further malaria control efforts. Mass campaigns are triggered when ITN access falls below 40%. In this context, there is a need to monitor ITN access annually to assess whether it is below threshold and inform quantification of ITNs for the following year. Annual estimates of access are needed at the council level to inform programmatic decision-making.

METHODS

An age-structured stock and flow model was used to predict annual net crops from council-level distribution data in Tanzania from 2012 to 2020 parameterized with a Tanzania-specific net median lifespan of 2.15 years. Annual nets-per-capita (NPC) was calculated by dividing each annual net crop by mid-year council projected population. A previously fit nonparametric conditional quantile function for the proportion of the population with access to an ITN (ITN access) as a function of NPC was used to predict ITN access at the council level based on the predicted NPC value. These estimates were compared to regional-level ITN access from large household surveys.

RESULTS

For regions with the same ITN strategy for all councils, predicted council-level ITN access was consistent with regional-level survey data for 79% of councils. Regions where ITN strategy varied by council had regional estimates of ITN access that diverged from the council-specific estimates. Predicted ITN access reached 60% only when "nets issued as a percentage of the council population" (NPP) exceeded 15%, and approached 80% ITN access when NPP was at or above 20%.

CONCLUSION

Modelling ITN access with country-specific net decay rates, council-level population, and ITN distribution data is a promising approach to monitor ITN coverage sub-regionally and between household surveys in Tanzania and beyond.

Estimation of bed net coverage indicators in Tanzania using mobile phone surveys: a comparison of sampling approaches

BACKGROUND

Threats to maintaining high population access with effective bed nets persist due to errors in quantification, bed net wear and tear, and inefficiencies in distribution activities. Monitoring bed net coverage is therefore critical, but usually occurs every 2-3 years through expensive, large-scale household surveys. Mobile phone-based survey methodologies are emerging as an alternative to household surveys and can provide rapid estimates of coverage, however, little research on varied sampling approaches has been conducted in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

A nationally and regionally representative cross-sectional mobile phone survey was conducted in early 2021 in Tanzania with focus on bed net ownership and access. Half the target sample was contacted through a random digit dial methodology (n = 3500) and the remaining half was reached through a voluntary opt-in respondent pool (n = 3500). Both sampling approaches used an interactive voice response survey. Standard RBM-MERG bed net indicators and AAPOR call metrics were calculated. In addition, the results of the two sampling approaches were compared.

RESULTS

Population access (i.e., the percent of the population that could sleep under a bed net, assuming one bed net per two people) varied from a regionally adjusted low of 48.1% (Katavi) to a high of 65.5% (Dodoma). The adjusted percent of households that had a least one bed net ranged from 54.8% (Pemba) to 75.5% (Dodoma); the adjusted percent of households with at least one bed net per 2 de facto household population ranged from 35.9% (Manyara) to 55.7% (Dodoma). The estimates produced by both sampling approaches were generally similar, differing by only a few percentage points. An analysis of differences between estimates generated from the two sampling approaches showed minimal bias when considering variation across the indicator for households with at least one bed net per two de facto household population.

CONCLUSION

The results generated by this survey show that overall bed net access in the country appears to be lower than target thresholds. The results suggest that bed net distribution is needed in large sections of the country to ensure that coverage levels remain high enough to sustain protection against malaria for the population.

Long-lasting insecticidal nets provide protection against malaria for only a single year in Burundi, an African highland setting with marked malaria seasonality

BACKGROUND

Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) are one of the key interventions in the global fight against malaria. Since 2014, mass distribution campaigns of LLINs aim for universal access by all citizens of Burundi. In this context, we assess the impact of LLINs mass distribution campaigns on malaria incidence, focusing on the endemic highland health districts. We also explored the possible correlation between observed trends in malaria incidence with any variations in climate conditions.

METHODS

Malaria cases for 2011-2019 were obtained from the National Health Information System. We developed a generalised additive model based on a time series of routinely collected data with malaria incidence as the response variable and timing of LLIN distribution as an explanatory variable to investigate the duration and magnitude of the LLIN effect on malaria incidence. We added a seasonal and continuous-time component as further explanatory variables, and health district as a random effect to account for random natural variation in malaria cases between districts.

RESULTS

Malaria transmission in Burundian highlands was clearly seasonal and increased non-linearly over the study period. Further, a fast and steep decline of malaria incidence was noted during the first year after mass LLIN distribution (p<0.0001). In years 2 and 3 after distribution, malaria cases started to rise again to levels higher than before the control intervention.

CONCLUSION

This study highlights that LLINs did reduce the incidence in the first year after a mass distribution campaign, but in the context of Burundi, LLINs lost their impact after only 1 year.

Understanding the current state-of-the-art of long-lasting insecticide nets and potential for sustainable alternatives

Long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) are widely distributed to communities where malaria is a major cause of mortality, especially to those under the age of 5 years-old. To protect people from this illness, LLINs provide physical and chemical barriers by containing insecticides within the matrix of the polymer fibers or on the surface. Synthetic polymers including polyethylene and polyester are common material choices for these nets, and pyrethroids, along with other additives, are the insecticides of choice for this application. Many studies have shown the effectiveness of these nets on the impact of malaria is highly significant, but there is a demand for more durable nets that last longer than only a few years as the available products are rated for 2–3 years of use. Improvements in this area would increase cost effectiveness, because better durability would reduce the frequency of manufacturing and worldwide shipping. Additionally, due to the plastic fibers, the waste can build quickly, damaging the environment. To deal with the sustainability and durability issues, biodegradable and renewable materials should be chosen as an alternative.

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LLINs are important for malaria control, but they require a sustainable and durable alternative to synthetic polymers.

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LLINs are made by extrusion of pyrethroids and synthetic polymers or by coating.

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The current LLINs include important active ingredients to improve insecticidal activity.

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Bio-based polymers have the potential to be used to develop a superior LLIN to those available currently.

Annual distributions of insecticide-treated nets to schoolchildren and other key populations to maintain higher ITN access than with mass campaigns: a modelling study for mainland Tanzania

Background

Since 2013, the National Malaria Control Programme in mainland Tanzania has deployed annual distributions of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) through primary schools to maintain ITN access and use. This School Net Programme (SNP) is slated to be used throughout mainland Tanzania by 2023. This modelling study projects ITN access under different ITN distribution strategies and quantification approaches.

Methods

A stock and flow model with a Tanzania-specific ITN decay rate was used to calculate annual net crops for four different ITN distribution strategies, varying quantification approaches within each strategy. Annual nets-per-capita (NPC) was derived from net crop and a standardized population projection. Nonparametric conditional quartile functions for the proportion of the population with access to an ITN (ITN access) as a function of NPC were used to predict ITN access and its variability. The number of ITNs required under the varying quantification approaches for the period 2022–2030 was calculated.

Results

Annual SNP quantified using a “population times 15%” approach maintained ITN access between 80 and 90%, when combined with reproductive and child health (RCH) ITN distribution, requiring 133.2 million ITNs. The same strategy quantified with “population times 22%” maintained ITN access at or above 90%, requiring 175.5 million ITNs. Under 5-year mass campaigns with RCH distribution for pregnant women and infants, ITN access reached 90% post-campaign and fell to 27–35% in the 4th year post-campaign, requiring 120.5 million ITNs over 8 years. 3-yearly mass campaigns with RCH reached 100% ITN access post-campaign and fell to 70% in the 3rd year post-campaign, requiring 154.4 million ITNs.

Conclusion

Given an ITN retention time in Tanzania of 2.15 years, the model predicts that mass campaigns conducted every 3 years in mainland Tanzania will not maintain ITN access at target levels of 80%, even with strong RCH channels. Mainland Tanzania can however expect to maintain ITN access at 80% or above by quantifying SNP using “population × 15%”, in addition to RCH ITN delivery. This strategy requires 14% fewer ITNs than a 3-year campaign strategy while providing more consistent ITN coverage. Meeting the targets of 80% ITN use would require maintaining 90% ITN access, achievable using a “population times 22%” quantification approach for SNP.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-022-04272-w.

Identification of a rapidly-spreading triple mutant for high-level metabolic insecticide resistance in Anopheles gambiae provides a real-time molecular diagnostic for antimalarial intervention deployment

Studies of insecticide resistance provide insights into the capacity of populations to show rapid evolutionary responses to contemporary selection. Malaria control remains heavily dependent on pyrethroid insecticides, primarily in long lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs). Resistance in the major malaria vectors has increased in concert with the expansion of LLIN distributions. Identifying genetic mechanisms underlying high-level resistance is crucial for the development and deployment of resistance-breaking tools. Using the Anopheles gambiae 1000 genomes (Ag1000g) data we identified a very recent selective sweep in mosquitoes from Uganda which localized to a cluster of cytochrome P450 genes. Further interrogation revealed a haplotype involving a trio of mutations, a nonsynonymous point mutation in Cyp6p4 (I236M), an upstream insertion of a partial Zanzibar-like transposable element (TE) and a duplication of the Cyp6aa1 gene. The mutations appear to have originated recently in An. gambiae from the Kenya-Uganda border, with stepwise replacement of the double-mutant (Zanzibar-like TE and Cyp6p4-236 M) with the triple-mutant haplotype (including Cyp6aa1 duplication), which has spread into the Democratic Republic of Congo and Tanzania. The triple-mutant haplotype is strongly associated with increased expression of genes able to metabolize pyrethroids and is strongly predictive of resistance to pyrethroids most notably deltamethrin. Importantly, there was increased mortality in mosquitoes carrying the triple-mutation when exposed to nets cotreated with the synergist piperonyl butoxide (PBO). Frequencies of the triple-mutant haplotype remain spatially variable within countries, suggesting an effective marker system to guide deployment decisions for limited supplies of PBO-pyrethroid cotreated LLINs across African countries.

The fight against malaria: Diminishing gains and growing challenges

Since the year 2000, historic reductions in malaria incidence and mortality have been driven by the widespread distribution of bed nets, drugs, and insecticides for the prevention and treatment of malaria. Scale-up of these tools has been enabled by an increase in malaria financing compounded by price reductions, yet these trends are unlikely to continue at the same rate. Rapid population growth in high-endemic areas requires procurement of more of these tools just to maintain current coverage, even as prices are likely to increase as resistance to drugs and insecticides forces shifts to newer products. Further progress toward the long-term goal of malaria eradication requires a combination of greater funding, more cost-effective resource allocation, and fundamental changes to the global malaria control strategy.

Using donor funding to catalyse investment in malaria prevention in Ghana: an analysis of the potential impact on public and private sector expenditure

Background

An estimated 1.5 billion malaria cases and 7.6 million malaria deaths have been averted globally since 2000; long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) have contributed an estimated 68% of this reduction. Insufficient funding at the international and domestic levels poses a significant threat to future progress and there is growing emphasis on the need for enhanced domestic resource mobilization. The Private Sector Malaria Prevention (PSMP) project was a 3-year intervention to catalyse private sector investment in malaria prevention in Ghana.

Methods

To assess value for money of the intervention, non-donor expenditure in the 5 years post-project catalysed by the initial donor investment was predicted. Non-donor expenditure catalysed by this investment included: workplace partner costs of malaria prevention activities; household costs in purchasing LLINs from retail outlets; domestic resource mobilization (public sector financing and private investors). Annual ratios of projected non-donor expenditure to annualized donor costs were calculated for the 5 years post-project. Alternative scenarios were constructed to explore uncertainty around future consequences of the intervention.

Results

The total donor financial cost of the 3-year PSMP project was USD 4,418,996. The average annual economic donor cost per LLIN distributed through retail sector and workplace partners was USD 21.17 and USD 7.55, respectively. Taking a 5-year post-project time horizon, the annualized donor investment costs were USD 735,805. In the best-case scenario, each USD of annualized donor investment led to USD 4.82 in annual projected non-donor expenditure by the fifth-year post-project. With increasingly conservative assumptions around the project consequences, this ratio decreased to 3.58, 2.16, 1.07 and 0.93 in the “very good”, “good”, “poor” and “worst” case scenarios, respectively. This suggests that in all but the worst-case scenario, donor investment would be exceeded by the non-donor expenditure it catalysed.

Conclusions

The unit cost per net delivered was high, reflecting considerable initial investment costs and relatively low volumes of LLINs sold during the short duration of the project. However, taking a longer time horizon and broader perspective on the consequences of this complex catalytic intervention suggests that considerable domestic resources for malaria control could be mobilized, exceeding the value of the initial donor investment.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-022-04218-2.

What Africa can do to accelerate and sustain progress against malaria

After a longstanding global presence, malaria is now largely non-existent or suppressed in most parts of the world. Today, cases and deaths are primarily concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa. According to many experts, this persistence on the African continent reflects factors such as resistance to insecticides and drugs as well as insufficient access to essential commodities such as insecticide-treated nets and effective drugs. Crucially, however, this narrative ignores many central weaknesses in the fight against malaria and instead reinforces a narrow, commodity-driven vision of disease control. This paper therefore describes the core challenges hindering malaria programs in Africa and highlights key opportunities to rethink current strategies for sustainable control and elimination. The epidemiology of malaria in Africa presents far greater challenges than elsewhere and requires context-specific initiatives tailored to national and sub-national targets. To sustain progress, African countries must systematically address key weaknesses in its health systems, improve the quality and use of data for surveillance-responses, improve both technical and leadership competencies for malaria control, and gradually reduce overreliance on commodities while expanding multisectoral initiatives such as improved housing and environmental sanitation. They must also leverage increased funding from both domestic and international sources, and support pivotal research and development efforts locally. Effective vaccines and drugs, or other potentially transformative technologies such as genedrive modified mosquitoes, could further accelerate malaria control by complementing current tools. However, our underlying strategies remain insufficient and must be expanded to include more holistic and context-specific approaches critical to achieve and sustain effective malaria control.

"In starvation, a bone can also be meat": a mixed methods evaluation of factors associated with discarding of long-lasting insecticidal nets in Bagamoyo, Tanzania

Background

Between 2000 and 2019, more than 1.8 billion long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) were distributed in Africa. While the insecticidal durability of LLINs is around 3 years, nets are commonly discarded 2 years post distribution. This study investigated the factors associated with the decision of users to discard LLINs.

Methods

A mixed-method sequential explanatory approach using a structured questionnaire followed by focus group discussions (FGDs) to collect information on experiences, views, reasons, how and when LLINs are discarded. Out of 6,526 households that responded to the questionnaire of LLINs durability trial, 160 households were randomly selected from the households in four villages in Bagamoyo Tanzania for FGDs but only 155 households participated in the FGDs. Five of the household representatives couldn’t participate due to unexpected circumstances. A total of sixteen FGDs each comprising of 8–10 adults were conducted; older women (40–60 years), older men (40–60 years), younger women (18–39 years), younger men (18–39 years). During the FGDs, participants visually inspected seven samples of LLINs that were “too-torn” based on Proportionate Hole Index recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines on LLIN testing, the nets were brought to the discussion and participants had to determine if such LLINs were to be kept or discarded. The study assessed responses from the same participants that attended FGD and also responded to the structured questionnaire, 117 participants fulfilled the criteria, thus data from only 117 participants are analysed in this study.

Results

In FGDs, integrity of LLIN influenced the decision to discard or keep a net. Those of older age, women, and householders with lower income were more likely to classify a WHO “too-torn” net as “good”. The common methods used to discard LLINs were burning and burying. The findings were seen in the quantitative analysis. For every additional hole, the odds of discarding a WHO “too-torn” LLIN increased [OR = 1.05 (95%CI (1.04–1.07)), p < 0.001]. Younger age group [OR = 4.97 (95%CI (3.25–7.32)), p < 0.001], male-headed households [OR = 6.85 (95%CI (4.44 –10.59)), p < 0.001], and wealthy households [OR = 3.88 (95%CI (2.33–6.46)), p < 0.001] were more likely to discard LLINs.

Conclusion

Integrity of LLIN was the main determinant for discarding or keeping LLINs and the decision to discard the net is associated with socioeconomic status of the household, and the age and gender of respondents. WHO “too torn” nets are encouraged to be used instead of none until replacement, and disposal of nets should be based on recommendation.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-022-04126-5.

Evaluation of an accelerometer-based monitor for detecting bed net use and human entry/exit using a machine learning algorithm

Background

Distribution of long-lasting insecticidal bed nets (LLINs) is one of the main control strategies for malaria. Improving malaria prevention programmes requires understanding usage patterns in households receiving LLINs, but there are limits to what standard cross-sectional surveys of self-reported LLIN use can provide. This study was designed to assess the performance of an accelerometer-based approach for measuring a range of LLIN use behaviours as a proof of concept for more granular LLIN-use monitoring over longer time periods.

Methods

This study was carried out under controlled conditions from May to July 2018 in Liverpool, UK. A single accelerometer was affixed to the side panel of an LLIN and participants carried out five LLIN use behaviours: (1) unfurling a net; (2) entering an unfurled net; (3) lying still as if sleeping; (4) exiting from under a net; and, (5) folding up a net. The randomForest package in R, a supervised non-linear classification algorithm, was used to train models on 20-s epochs of tagged accelerometer data. Models were compared in a validation dataset using overall accuracy, sensitivity and specificity, receiver operating curves and the area under the curve (AUC).

Results

The five-category model had overall accuracy of 82.9% in the validation dataset, a sensitivity of 0.681 for entering a net, 0.632 for exiting, 0.733 for net down, and 0.800 for net up. A simplified four-category model, combining entering/exiting a net into one category had accuracy of 94.8%, and increased sensitivity for net down (0.756) and net up (0.829). A further simplified three-category model, identifying sleeping, net up, and a combined net down/enter/exit category had accuracy of 96.2% (483/502), with an AUC of 0.997 for net down and 0.987 for net up. Models for detecting entering/exiting by adults were significantly more accurate than for children (87.8% vs 70.0%; p < 0.001) and had a higher AUC (p = 0.03).

Conclusions

Understanding how LLINs are used is crucial for planning malaria prevention programmes. Accelerometer-based systems provide a promising new methodology for studying LLIN use. Further work exploring accelerometer placement, frequency of measurements and other machine learning approaches could make these methods even more accurate in the future.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-022-04102-z.

Patterns of Kdr-L995F Allele Emergence Alongside Detoxifying Enzymes Associated with Deltamethrin Resistance in Anopheles gambiae s.l. from North Cameroon

Understanding how multiple insecticide resistance mechanisms occur in malaria vectors is essential for efficient vector control. This study aimed at assessing the evolution of metabolic mechanisms and Kdr L995F/S resistance alleles in Anopheles gambiae s.l. from North Cameroon, following long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) distribution in 2011. Female An. gambiae s.l. emerging from larvae collected in Ouro-Housso/Kanadi, Be-Centre, and Bala in 2011 and 2015, were tested for susceptibility to deltamethrin + piperonyl butoxide (PBO) or SSS-tributyl-phosphoro-thrithioate (DEF) synergists, using the World Health Organization's standard protocol. The Kdr L995F/S alleles were genotyped using Hot Ligation Oligonucleotide Assay. Tested mosquitoes identified using PCR-RFLP were composed of An. arabiensis (68.5%), An. coluzzii (25.5%) and An. gambiae (6%) species. From 2011 to 2015, metabolic resistance increased in Ouro-Housso/Kanadi (up to 89.5% mortality to deltametnrin+synergists in 2015 versus <65% in 2011; p < 0.02), while it decreased in Be-Centre and Bala (>95% mortality in 2011 versus 42-94% in 2015; p < 0.001). Conversely, the Kdr L995F allelic frequencies slightly decreased in Ouro-Housso/Kanadi (from 50% to 46%, p > 0.9), while significantly increasing in Be-Centre and Bala (from 0-13% to 18-36%, p < 0.02). These data revealed two evolutionary trends of deltamethrin resistance mechanisms; non-pyrethroid vector control tools should supplement LLINs in North Cameroon.

LLIN evaluation in Uganda project (LLINEUP): The fabric integrity, chemical content and bioefficacy of long-lasting insecticidal nets treated with and without piperonyl butoxide across two years of operational use in Uganda

Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) supplemented with the synergist piperonyl butoxide have been developed in response to growing pyrethroid resistance; however, their durability in the field remains poorly described. A pragmatic cluster-randomised trial was embedded into Ugandaʼs 2017–2018 LLIN distribution to compare the durability of LLINs with and without PBO. A total of 104 clusters (health sub-districts) were included with each receiving one of four LLIN products, two with pyrethroid + PBO (Olyset Plus and PermaNet 3.0) and two pyrethroid-only (Olyset Net and PermaNet 2.0). Nets were sampled at baseline, 12 and 25 months post-distribution to assess physical condition, chemical content, and bioefficacy. Physical condition was quantified using proportionate Hole Index and chemical content measured using high-performance liquid chromatography. Bioefficacy was assessed with three-minute World Health Organisation (WHO) Cone and Wireball assays using pyrethroid-resistant Anopheles gambiae, with 1-h knockdown and 24-h mortality recorded. There was no difference in physical durability between LLIN products assessed (P = 0.644). The pyrethroid content of all products remained relatively stable across time-points but PBO content declined by 55% (P < 0.001) and 58% (P < 0.001) for Olyset Plus and PermaNet 3.0 respectively. Both PBO LLINs were highly effective against pyrethroid-resistant mosquitoes when new, knocking down all mosquitoes. However, bioefficacy declined over time with Olyset Plus knocking down 45.72% (95% CI: 22.84–68.62%, P = 0.021) and Permanent 3.0 knocking down 78.57% (95% CI: 63.57–93.58%, P < 0.001) after 25 months. Here we demonstrate that both Olyset Plus and PermaNet 3.0 are as durable as their pyrethroid-only equivalents and had superior bioefficacy against pyrethroid-resistant An. gambiae. However, the superiority of PBO-LLINs decreased with operational use, correlating with a reduction in total PBO content. This decline in bioefficacy after just two years is concerning and there is an urgent need to assess the durability of PBO LLINs in other settings.

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Olyset Plus and PermaNet 3.0 nets effective against pyrethroid-resistant Anopheles gambiae when new.

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Killing effect of both nets halved after two years.

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Nets in ‘traditional’ thatched-roof housing at high risk of damage.