Late Quaternary dynamics of Arctic biota from ancient environmental genomics

Archaeology meets environmental genomics: implementing sedaDNA in the study of the human past

Sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) has become one of the standard applications in the field of paleogenomics in recent years. It has been used for paleoenvironmental reconstructions, detecting the presence of prehistoric species in the absence of macro remains and even investigating the evolutionary history of a few species. However, its application in archaeology has been limited and primarily focused on humans. This article argues that sedaDNA holds significant potential in addressing key archaeological questions concerning the origins, lifestyles, and environments of past human populations. Our aim is to facilitate the integration of sedaDNA into the standard workflows in archaeology as a transformative tool, thereby unleashing its full potential for studying the human past. Ultimately, we not only underscore the challenges inherent in the sedaDNA field but also provide a research agenda for essential enhancements needed for implementing sedaDNA into the archaeological workflow.

52,000 years of woolly rhinoceros population dynamics reveal extinction mechanisms

The extinction of the woolly rhinoceros (Coelodonta antiquitatis) at the onset of the Holocene remains an enigma, with conflicting evidence regarding its cause and spatiotemporal dynamics. This partly reflects challenges in determining demographic responses of late Quaternary megafauna to climatic and anthropogenic causal drivers with available genetic and paleontological techniques. Here, we show that elucidating mechanisms of ancient extinctions can benefit from a detailed understanding of fine-scale metapopulation dynamics, operating over many millennia. Using an abundant fossil record, ancient DNA, and high-resolution simulation models, we untangle the ecological mechanisms and causal drivers that are likely to have been integral in the decline and later extinction of the woolly rhinoceros. Our 52,000-y reconstruction of distribution-wide metapopulation dynamics supports a pathway to extinction that began long before the Holocene, when the combination of cooling temperatures and low but sustained hunting by humans trapped woolly rhinoceroses in suboptimal habitats along the southern edge of their range. Modeling indicates that this ecological trap intensified after the end of the last ice age, preventing colonization of newly formed suitable habitats, weakening stabilizing metapopulation processes, triggering the extinction of the woolly rhinoceros in the early Holocene. Our findings suggest that fragmentation and resultant metapopulation dynamics should be explicitly considered in explanations of late Quaternary megafauna extinctions, sending a clarion call to the fragility of the remaining large-bodied grazers restricted to disjunct fragments of poor-quality habitat due to anthropogenic environmental change.

Using ancient sedimentary DNA to forecast ecosystem trajectories under climate change

Ecosystem response to climate change is complex. In order to forecast ecosystem dynamics, we need high-quality data on changes in past species abundance that can inform process-based models. Sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) has revolutionised our ability to document past ecosystems' dynamics. It provides time series of increased taxonomic resolution compared to microfossils (pollen, spores), and can often give species-level information, especially for past vascular plant and mammal abundances. Time series are much richer in information than contemporary spatial distribution information, which have been traditionally used to train models for predicting biodiversity and ecosystem responses to climate change. Here, we outline the potential contribution of sedaDNA to forecast ecosystem changes. We showcase how species-level time series may allow quantification of the effect of biotic interactions in ecosystem dynamics, and be used to estimate dispersal rates when a dense network of sites is available. By combining palaeo-time series, process-based models, and inverse modelling, we can recover the biotic and abiotic processes underlying ecosystem dynamics, which are traditionally very challenging to characterise. Dynamic models informed by sedaDNA can further be used to extrapolate beyond current dynamics and provide robust forecasts of ecosystem responses to future climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Tibetan terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems collapsed with cryosphere loss inferred from sedimentary ancient metagenomics

Glacier and permafrost shrinkage and land-use intensification threaten mountain wildlife and affect nature conservation strategies. Here, we present paleometagenomic records of terrestrial and aquatic taxa from the southeastern Tibetan Plateau covering the last 18,000 years to help understand the complex alpine ecosystem dynamics. We infer that steppe-meadow became woodland at 14 ka (cal BP) controlled by cryosphere loss, further driving a herbivore change from wild yak to deer. These findings weaken the hypothesis of top-down control by large herbivores in the terrestrial ecosystem. We find a turnover in the aquatic communities at 14 ka, transitioning from glacier-related (blue-green) algae to abundant nonglacier-preferring picocyanobacteria, macrophytes, fish, and otters. There is no evidence for substantial effects of livestock herding in either ecosystem. Using network analysis, we assess the stress-gradient hypothesis and reveal that root hemiparasitic and cushion plants are keystone taxa. With ongoing cryosphere loss, the protection of their habitats is likely to be of conservation benefit on the Tibetan Plateau.

Environmental DNA methods for biosecurity and invasion biology in terrestrial ecosystems: Progress, pitfalls, and prospects

Analysis of environmental DNA (eDNA) enables indirect detection of species without the need to directly observe and sample them. For biosecurity and invasion biology, eDNA-based methods are useful to address biological invasions at all phases, from detecting arrivals to confirming eradication of past invasions. We conducted a systematic review of the literature and found that in biosecurity and invasion biology, eDNA has primarily been used to detect new incursions and monitor spread in marine and freshwater ecosystems, with much slower uptake in terrestrial ecosystems, reflecting a broader trend common to the usage of eDNA tools. In terrestrial ecosystems, eDNA research has mostly focussed on the use of eDNA metabarcoding to characterise biodiversity, rather than targeting biosecurity threats or non-native populations. We discuss how eDNA-based methods are being applied to terrestrial ecosystems for biosecurity and managing non-native populations at each phase of the invasion continuum: transport, introduction, establishment, and spread; across different management options: containment, control, and eradication; and for detecting the impact of non-native organisms. Finally, we address some of the current technical issues and caveats of eDNA-based methods, particularly for terrestrial ecosystems, and how these might be solved. As eDNA-based methods improve, they will play an increasingly important role in the early detection and adaptive management of biological invasions, and the implementation of effective biosecurity controls.

Mitochondrial genomes of Pleistocene megafauna retrieved from recent sediment layers of two Siberian lakes

Ancient environmental DNA (aeDNA) from lake sediments has yielded remarkable insights for the reconstruction of past ecosystems, including suggestions of late survival of extinct species. However, translocation and lateral inflow of DNA in sediments can potentially distort the stratigraphic signal of the DNA. Using three different approaches on two short lake sediment cores of the Yamal peninsula, West Siberia, with ages spanning only the past hundreds of years, we detect DNA and identified mitochondrial genomes of multiple mammoth and woolly rhinoceros individuals-both species that have been extinct for thousands of years on the mainland. The occurrence of clearly identifiable aeDNA of extinct Pleistocene megafauna (e.g. >400 K reads in one core) throughout these two short subsurface cores, along with specificities of sedimentology and dating, confirm that processes acting on regional scales, such as extensive permafrost thawing, can influence the aeDNA record and should be accounted for in aeDNA paleoecology.

A renewed glance at the Palearctic golden eagle: Genetic variation in space and time

Anthropogenic pressures on nature have been causing population declines for centuries. Intensified persecution of apex predators, like the golden eagle, resulted in population bottlenecks during the 19th and 20th centuries. To study population genetics and demographic history of the golden eagle throughout its distribution, we collected museum samples from previously underrepresented regions, such as Russia and Central Asia. We used 12 microsatellite loci and a fragment of the mitochondrial DNA control region to re-evaluate phylogeography of Eurasian golden eagles and study the impacts of the population bottleneck. Our results revealed a north-south genetic gradient, expressed by the difference between Mediterranean and Holarctic lineages, as well as genetically distinct Northern Europe and Central Asia and Caucasus regions. Furthermore, Northern Europe exhibited the lowest, whereas Central Asia and Caucasus had the highest genetic diversity. Although golden eagles maintained relatively high genetic diversity, we detected genetic signatures of the recent bottleneck, including reduced genetic diversity and a decline in the effective female population size around the year 1975. Our study improves the knowledge of the genetic composition of Eurasian golden eagles and highlights the importance of understanding their historical population dynamics in the face of ongoing and future conservation efforts.

Genomics for monitoring and understanding species responses to global climate change

All life forms across the globe are experiencing drastic changes in environmental conditions as a result of global climate change. These environmental changes are happening rapidly, incur substantial socioeconomic costs, pose threats to biodiversity and diminish a species' potential to adapt to future environments. Understanding and monitoring how organisms respond to human-driven climate change is therefore a major priority for the conservation of biodiversity in a rapidly changing environment. Recent developments in genomic, transcriptomic and epigenomic technologies are enabling unprecedented insights into the evolutionary processes and molecular bases of adaptation. This Review summarizes methods that apply and integrate omics tools to experimentally investigate, monitor and predict how species and communities in the wild cope with global climate change, which is by genetically adapting to new environmental conditions, through range shifts or through phenotypic plasticity. We identify advantages and limitations of each method and discuss future research avenues that would improve our understanding of species' evolutionary responses to global climate change, highlighting the need for holistic, multi-omics approaches to ecosystem monitoring during global climate change.

A female woolly mammoth's lifetime movements end in an ancient Alaskan hunter-gatherer camp

Woolly mammoths in mainland Alaska overlapped with the region's first people for at least a millennium. However, it is unclear how mammoths used the space shared with people. Here, we use detailed isotopic analyses of a female mammoth tusk found in a 14,000-year-old archaeological site to show that she moved ~1000 kilometers from northwestern Canada to inhabit an area with the highest density of early archaeological sites in interior Alaska until her death. DNA from the tusk and other local contemporaneous archaeological mammoth remains revealed that multiple mammoth herds congregated in this region. Early Alaskans seem to have structured their settlements partly based on mammoth prevalence and made use of mammoths for raw materials and likely food.

Exploring different methodological approaches to unlock paleobiodiversity in peat profiles using ancient DNA

Natural and human-induced environmental changes deeply affected terrestrial ecosystems throughout the Holocene. Paleoenvironmental reconstructions provide information about the past and allow us to predict/model future scenarios. Among potential records, peat bogs are widely used because they present a precise stratigraphy and act as natural archives of highly diverse organic remains. Over the decades, several techniques have been developed to identify debris occurring in peat, including their morphological description. However, this is strongly constrained by the researcher's ability to distinguish residues at the species level, which typically requires many years of experience. In addition, potential contamination hampers using these techniques to obtain information from organisms such as fungi or bacteria. Environmental DNA metabarcoding and shotgun metagenome sequencing could represent a solution to detect specific groups of organisms without any a priori knowledge of their characteristics and/or to identify organisms that have rarely been considered in previous investigations. Moreover, shotgun metagenomics may allow the identification of bacteria and fungi (including both yeast and filamentous life forms), ensuring discrimination between ancient and modern organisms through the study of deamination/damage patterns. In the present review, we aim to i) present the state-of-the-art methodologies in paleoecological and paleoclimatic studies focusing on peat core analyses, proposing alternative approaches to the classical morphological identification of plant residues, and ii) suggest biomolecular approaches that will allow the use of proxies such as invertebrates, fungi, and bacteria, which are rarely employed in paleoenvironmental reconstructions.

Metagenomic insights into novel microbial lineages with distinct ecological functions in the Arctic glacier foreland ecosystems

Land-terminating glaciers are retreating globally, resulting in the expansion of the ice-free glacier forelands (GFs). These GFs act as a natural laboratory to study microbial community succession, soil formation, and ecosystem development. Here, we have employed gene-centric and genome-resolved metagenomic approaches to disseminate microbial diversity, community structure, and their associated biogeochemical processes involved in the carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur cycling across three GF ecosystems. Here, we present a compendium of draft Metagenome Assembled Genomes (MAGs) belonging to bacterial (n = 899) and archaeal (n = 4) domains. These MAGs were reconstructed using a total of 27 shotgun metagenomic datasets obtained from three different GFs, including Midtre Lovénbreen glacier (Svalbard), Russell glacier (Greenland), and Storglaciaren (Sweden). The taxonomic classification revealed that 98% of MAGs remained unclassified at species levels, suggesting the presence of novel microbial lineages. The abundance of metabolic genes associated with carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur cycling pathways varied between and within the samples collected across the three GF ecosystems. Our findings indicate that MAGs from different GFs share close phylogenetic relationships but exhibit significant differences in abundance, distribution patterns, and metabolic functions. This compendium of novel MAGs, encompassing autotrophic, phototrophic, and chemolithoautotrophic microbial groups reconstructed from GF ecosystems, represents a valuable resource for further studies.

Perhaps there were northern refugia in LGM? The phylogeographic structure of the thermophilic tree Carpinus betulus in the Carpathian region

Carpinus betulus L., the hornbeam, is a component of lowland and highland forests in Europe. By examining the postglacial migratory history of thermophilic tree species, the study aimed to unravel their putative glacial microrefugia in the Carpathian region. The present study points to the two distinct genetic AFLP groups of C. betulus in the Carpathian region that represent different genetic lineages based on Bayesian analysis. They differed in Nei's gene diversity index h, and the analysis of molecular variance AMOVA showed a percentage variation of the populations between the groups of 13.74 %. Principal coordinate analysis (PCoA) of 368 AFLP tree samples confirmed the presence of two genetic groups. Ninety-five populations underwent principal component analysis (PCA) to show the main correlations between genetic diversity indices and bioclimatic/climate variables (WorldClim and Carpatclim). The generalized logistic model (GLM) showed the significance of Nei's genetic index h in delimiting genetic groups. The results of population-genetic and multivariate analyses determined that the two genetic groups nowadays are spatially diffused and do not show a clear geographic pattern, pointing to a genetic melting pot. We found ecological links between genetic diversity and bioclimatic characteristics, especially the precipitation in the coldest quarter - Bio19. The refugial Maxent model indicates a significant contribution of the Bio7 variable (both linked with a continental type of climate) to the occurrence of the species during the LGM in Europe. We suggest the relict character of hornbeam populations in a specific climatic-terrain niche in the northern part of the Carpathian Basin.

slendr: a framework for spatio-temporal population genomic simulations on geographic landscapes

One of the goals of population genetics is to understand how evolutionary forces shape patterns of genetic variation over time. However, because populations evolve across both time and space, most evolutionary processes also have an important spatial component, acting through phenomena such as isolation by distance, local mate choice, or uneven distribution of resources. This spatial dimension is often neglected, partly due to the lack of tools specifically designed for building and evaluating complex spatio-temporal population genetic models. To address this methodological gap, we present a new framework for simulating spatially-explicit genomic data, implemented in a new R package called slendr (www.slendr.net), which leverages a SLiM simulation back-end script bundled with the package. With this framework, the users can programmatically and visually encode spatial population ranges and their temporal dynamics (i.e., population displacements, expansions, and contractions) either on real Earth landscapes or on abstract custom maps, and schedule splits and gene-flow events between populations using a straightforward declarative language. Additionally, slendr can simulate data from traditional, non-spatial models, either with SLiM or using an alternative built-in coalescent msprime back end. Together with its R-idiomatic interface to the tskit library for tree-sequence processing and analysis, slendr opens up the possibility of performing efficient, reproducible simulations of spatio-temporal genomic data entirely within the R environment, leveraging its wealth of libraries for geospatial data analysis, statistics, and visualization. Here, we present the design of the slendr R package and demonstrate its features on several practical example workflows.

The MetaInvert soil invertebrate genome resource provides insights into below-ground biodiversity and evolution

Soil invertebrates are among the least understood metazoans on Earth. Thus far, the lack of taxonomically broad and dense genomic resources has made it hard to thoroughly investigate their evolution and ecology. With MetaInvert we provide draft genome assemblies for 232 soil invertebrate species, representing 14 common groups and 94 families. We show that this data substantially extends the taxonomic scope of DNA- or RNA-based taxonomic identification. Moreover, we confirm that theories of genome evolution cannot be generalised across evolutionarily distinct invertebrate groups. The soil invertebrate genomes presented here will support the management of soil biodiversity through molecular monitoring of community composition and function, and the discovery of evolutionary adaptations to the challenges of soil conditions.

Is there a massive glacial-Holocene flora continuity in Central Europe?

The prevailing paradigm about the Quaternary ecological and evolutionary history of Central European ecosystems is that they were repeatedly impoverished by regional extinctions of most species during the glacial periods, followed by massive recolonizations from southern and eastern refugia during interglacial periods. Recent literature partially contradicts this view and provides evidence to re-evaluate this Postglacial Recolonization Hypothesis and develop an alternative one. We examined the long-term history of the flora of the Carpathian (Pannonian) Basin by synthesising recent advances in ecological, phylogeographical, palaeoecological and palaeoclimatological research, and analysing the cold tolerance of the native flora of a test area (Hungary, the central part of the Carpathian Basin). We found that (1) many species have likely occurred there continuously since before the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM); (2) most of the present-day native flora (1404 species, about 80%) can occur in climates as cold as or colder than the LGM (mean annual temperature ≤+3.5°C); and (3) grasslands and forests can be species-rich under an LGM-like cold climate. These arguments support an alternative hypothesis, which we call the Flora Continuity Hypothesis. It states that long-term continuity of much of the flora in the Carpathian Basin is more plausible than regional extinctions during the LGM followed by massive postglacial recolonizations. The long-term continuity of the region's flora may have fundamental implications not only for understanding local biogeography and ecology (e.g. the temporal scale of processes), but also for conservation strategies focusing on protecting ancient species-rich ecosystems and local gene pools.

aMeta: an accurate and memory-efficient ancient metagenomic profiling workflow

Analysis of microbial data from archaeological samples is a growing field with great potential for understanding ancient environments, lifestyles, and diseases. However, high error rates have been a challenge in ancient metagenomics, and the availability of computational frameworks that meet the demands of the field is limited. Here, we propose aMeta, an accurate metagenomic profiling workflow for ancient DNA designed to minimize the amount of false discoveries and computer memory requirements. Using simulated data, we benchmark aMeta against a current state-of-the-art workflow and demonstrate its superiority in microbial detection and authentication, as well as substantially lower usage of computer memory.

Paleoecology of extinct species

Recent developments, including new imaging and ancient environmental DNA (aeDNA) technologies, are providing unprecedented insights into the past, which can also help researchers predict future ecological change. BMC Ecology and Evolution has launched a new article Collection on the "Paleoecology of extinct species" to provide an open-access resource for all interested in this multidisciplinary field.

Strengthening global-change science by integrating aeDNA with paleoecoinformatics

Ancient environmental DNA (aeDNA) data are close to enabling insights into past global-scale biodiversity dynamics at unprecedented taxonomic extent and resolution. However, achieving this potential requires solutions that bridge bioinformatics and paleoecoinformatics. Essential needs include support for dynamic taxonomic inferences, dynamic age inferences, and precise stratigraphic depth. Moreover, aeDNA data are complex and heterogeneous, generated by dispersed researcher networks, with methods advancing rapidly. Hence, expert community governance and curation are essential to building high-value data resources. Immediate recommendations include uploading metabarcoding-based taxonomic inventories into paleoecoinformatic resources, building linkages among open bioinformatic and paleoecoinformatic data resources, harmonizing aeDNA processing workflows, and expanding community data governance. These advances will enable transformative insights into global-scale biodiversity dynamics during large environmental and anthropogenic changes.

Megafaunal extinctions, not climate change, may explain Holocene genetic diversity declines in Numenius shorebirds

Understanding the relative contributions of historical and anthropogenic factors to declines in genetic diversity is important for informing conservation action. Using genome-wide DNA of fresh and historic specimens, including that of two species widely thought to be extinct, we investigated fluctuations in genetic diversity and present the first complete phylogenomic tree for all nine species of the threatened shorebird genus Numenius, known as whimbrels and curlews. Most species faced sharp declines in effective population size, a proxy for genetic diversity, soon after the Last Glacial Maximum (around 20,000 years ago). These declines occurred prior to the Anthropocene and in spite of an increase in the breeding area predicted by environmental niche modeling, suggesting that they were not caused by climatic or recent anthropogenic factors. Crucially, these genetic diversity declines coincide with mass extinctions of mammalian megafauna in the Northern Hemisphere. Among other factors, the demise of ecosystem-engineering megafauna which maintained open habitats may have been detrimental for grassland and tundra-breeding Numenius shorebirds. Our work suggests that the impact of historical factors such as megafaunal extinction may have had wider repercussions on present-day population dynamics of open habitat biota than previously appreciated.

Beringia as a high-latitude engine of avian speciation

Beringia is a biogeographically dynamic region that extends from northeastern Asia into northwestern North America. This region has affected avian divergence and speciation in three important ways: (i) by serving as a route for intercontinental colonisation between Asia and the Americas; (ii) by cyclically splitting (and often reuniting) populations, subspecies, and species between these continents; and (iii) by providing isolated refugia through glacial cycles. The effects of these processes can be seen in taxonomic splits of shallow to increasing depths and in the presence of regional endemics. We review the taxa involved in the latter two processes (splitting-reuniting and isolation), with a focus on three research topics: avian diversity, time estimates of the generation of that diversity, and the regions within Beringia that might have been especially important. We find that these processes have generated substantial amounts of avian diversity, including 49 pairs of avian subspecies or species whose breeding distributions largely replace one another across the divide between the Old World and the New World in Beringia, and 103 avian species and subspecies endemic to this region. Among endemics, about one in three is recognised as a full biological species. Endemic taxa in the orders Charadriiformes (shorebirds, alcids, gulls, and terns) and Passeriformes (perching birds) are particularly well represented, although they show very different levels of diversity through evolutionary time. Endemic Beringian Charadriiformes have a 1.31:1 ratio of species to subspecies. In Passeriformes, endemic taxa have a 0.09:1 species-to-subspecies ratio, suggesting that passerine (and thus terrestrial) endemism might be more prone to long-term extinction in this region, although such 'losses' could occur through their being reconnected with wider continental populations during favourable climatic cycles (e.g. subspecies reintegration with other populations). Genetic evidence suggests that most Beringian avian taxa originated over the past 3 million years, confirming the importance of Quaternary processes. There seems to be no obvious clustering in their formation through time, although there might be temporal gaps with lower rates of diversity generation. For at least 62 species, taxonomically undifferentiated populations occupy this region, providing ample potential for future evolutionary diversification.

Plants under pressure: the impact of environmental change on plant ecology and evolution

Plants have demonstrated tremendous resilience through past mass extinction events. However, anthropogenic pressures are rapidly threatening plant survival. To develop our understanding of the impact of environmental change on plant ecology and evolution and help solve the current biodiversity crisis, BMC Ecology and Evolution has launched a new article Collection titled "Plants under Pressure".

Ancient pathogens provide a window into health and well-being

This perspective draws on the record of ancient pathogen genomes and microbiomes illuminating patterns of infectious disease over the course of the Holocene in order to address the following question. How did major changes in living circumstances involving the transition to and intensification of farming alter pathogens and their distributions? Answers to this question via ancient DNA research provide a rapidly expanding picture of pathogen evolution and in concert with archaeological and historical data, give a temporal and behavioral context for heath in the past that is relevant for challenges facing the world today, including the rise of novel pathogens.

Beringia and the peopling of the Western Hemisphere

Did Beringian environments represent an ecological barrier to humans until less than 15 000 years ago or was access to the Americas controlled by the spatial-temporal distribution of North American ice sheets? Beringian environments varied with respect to climate and biota, especially in the two major areas of exposed continental shelf. The East Siberian Arctic Shelf ('Great Arctic Plain' (GAP)) supported a dry steppe-tundra biome inhabited by a diverse large-mammal community, while the southern Bering-Chukchi Platform ('Bering Land Bridge' (BLB)) supported mesic tundra and probably a lower large-mammal biomass. A human population with west Eurasian roots occupied the GAP before the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and may have accessed mid-latitude North America via an interior ice-free corridor. Re-opening of the corridor less than 14 000 years ago indicates that the primary ancestors of living First Peoples, who already had spread widely in the Americas at this time, probably dispersed from the NW Pacific coast. A genetic 'arctic signal' in non-arctic First Peoples suggests that their parent population inhabited the GAP during the LGM, before their split from the former. We infer a shift from GAP terrestrial to a subarctic maritime economy on the southern BLB coast before dispersal in the Americas from the NW Pacific coast.

Metabarcoding of soil environmental DNA to estimate plant diversity globally

Introduction

Traditional approaches to collecting large-scale biodiversity data pose huge logistical and technical challenges. We aimed to assess how a comparatively simple method based on sequencing environmental DNA (eDNA) characterises global variation in plant diversity and community composition compared with data derived from traditional plant inventory methods.

Methods

We sequenced a short fragment (P6 loop) of the chloroplast trnL intron from from 325 globally distributed soil samples and compared estimates of diversity and composition with those derived from traditional sources based on empirical (GBIF) or extrapolated plant distribution and diversity data.

Results

Large-scale plant diversity and community composition patterns revealed by sequencing eDNA were broadly in accordance with those derived from traditional sources. The success of the eDNA taxonomy assignment, and the overlap of taxon lists between eDNA and GBIF, was greatest at moderate to high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. On average, around half (mean: 51.5% SD 17.6) of local GBIF records were represented in eDNA databases at the species level, depending on the geographic region.

Discussion

eDNA trnL gene sequencing data accurately represent global patterns in plant diversity and composition and thus can provide a basis for large-scale vegetation studies. Important experimental considerations for plant eDNA studies include using a sampling volume and design to maximise the number of taxa detected and optimising the sequencing depth. However, increasing the coverage of reference sequence databases would yield the most significant improvements in the accuracy of taxonomic assignments made using the P6 loop of the trnL region.

A 2-million-year-old ecosystem in Greenland uncovered by environmental DNA

Late Pliocene and Early Pleistocene epochs 3.6 to 0.8 million years ago1 had climates resembling those forecasted under future warming2. Palaeoclimatic records show strong polar amplification with mean annual temperatures of 11-19 °C above contemporary values3,4. The biological communities inhabiting the Arctic during this time remain poorly known because fossils are rare5. Here we report an ancient environmental DNA6 (eDNA) record describing the rich plant and animal assemblages of the Kap København Formation in North Greenland, dated to around two million years ago. The record shows an open boreal forest ecosystem with mixed vegetation of poplar, birch and thuja trees, as well as a variety of Arctic and boreal shrubs and herbs, many of which had not previously been detected at the site from macrofossil and pollen records. The DNA record confirms the presence of hare and mitochondrial DNA from animals including mastodons, reindeer, rodents and geese, all ancestral to their present-day and late Pleistocene relatives. The presence of marine species including horseshoe crab and green algae support a warmer climate than today. The reconstructed ecosystem has no modern analogue. The survival of such ancient eDNA probably relates to its binding to mineral surfaces. Our findings open new areas of genetic research, demonstrating that it is possible to track the ecology and evolution of biological communities from two million years ago using ancient eDNA.

Spatiotemporal influences of climate and humans on muskox range dynamics over multiple millennia

Processes leading to range contractions and population declines of Arctic megafauna during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene are uncertain, with intense debate on the roles of human hunting, climatic change, and their synergy. Obstacles to a resolution have included an overreliance on correlative rather than process-explicit approaches for inferring drivers of distributional and demographic change. Here, we disentangle the ecological mechanisms and threats that were integral in the decline and extinction of the muskox (Ovibos moschatus) in Eurasia and in its expansion in North America using process-explicit macroecological models. The approach integrates modern and fossil occurrence records, ancient DNA, spatiotemporal reconstructions of past climatic change, species-specific population ecology, and the growth and spread of anatomically modern humans. We show that accurately reconstructing inferences of past demographic changes for muskox over the last 21,000 years require high dispersal abilities, large maximum densities, and a small Allee effect. Analyses of validated process-explicit projections indicate that climatic change was the primary driver of muskox distribution shifts and demographic changes across its previously extensive (circumpolar) range, with populations responding negatively to rapid warming events. Regional analyses show that the range collapse and extinction of the muskox in Europe (~13,000 years ago) was likely caused by humans operating in synergy with climatic warming. In Canada and Greenland, climatic change and human activities probably combined to drive recent population sizes. The impact of past climatic change on the range and extinction dynamics of muskox during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition signals a vulnerability of this species to future increased warming. By better establishing the ecological processes that shaped the distribution of the muskox through space and time, we show that process-explicit macroecological models have important applications for the future conservation and management of this iconic species in a warming Arctic.

Ancient DNA Reveals Maternal Philopatry of the Northeast Eurasian Brown Bear (Ursus arctos) Population during the Holocene

Significant palaeoecological and paleoclimatic changes that took place during Late Pleistocene-Early Holocene transition are considered important factors that led to megafauna extinctions. Unlike many other species, the brown bear (Ursus arctos) has survived this geological time. Despite the fact that several mitochondrial DNA clades of brown bears became extinct at the end of the Pleistocene, this species is still widely distributed in Northeast Eurasia. Here, using the ancient DNA analysis of a brown bear individual that inhabited Northeast Asia in the Middle Holocene (3460 ± 40 years BP) and comparative phylogenetic analysis, we show a significant mitochondrial DNA similarity of the studied specimen with modern brown bears inhabiting Yakutia and Chukotka. In this study, we clearly demonstrate the maternal philopatry of the Northeastern Eurasian U. arctos population during the several thousand years of the Holocene.

Postglacial species arrival and diversity buildup of northern ecosystems took millennia

What drives ecosystem buildup, diversity, and stability? We assess species arrival and ecosystem changes across 16 millennia by combining regional-scale plant sedimentary ancient DNA from Fennoscandia with near-complete DNA and trait databases. We show that postglacial arrival time varies within and between plant growth forms. Further, arrival times were mainly predicted by adaptation to temperature, disturbance, and light. Major break points in ecological trait diversity were seen between 13.9 and 10.8 calibrated thousand years before the present (cal ka BP), as well as break point in functional diversity at 12.0 cal ka BP, shifting from a state of ecosystem buildup to a state where most habitat types and biotic ecosystem components were in place. Trait and functional diversity stabilized around 8 cal ka BP, after which both remained stable, although changes in climate took place and species inflow continued. Our ecosystem reconstruction indicates a millennial-scale time phase of formation to reach stable and resilient levels of diversity and functioning.

A theoretical analysis of taxonomic binning accuracy

Many metagenomic and environmental DNA studies require the taxonomic assignment of individual reads or sequences by aligning reads to a reference database, known as taxonomic binning. When a read aligns to more than one reference sequence, it is often classified based on sequence similarity. This step can assign reads to incorrect taxa, at a rate which depends both on the assignment algorithm and on underlying population genetic and database parameters. In particular, as we move towards using environmental DNA to study eukaryotic taxa subject to regular recombination, we must take into account issues concerning gene tree discordance. Though accuracy is often compared across algorithms using a fixed data set, the relative impact of these population genetic and database parameters on accuracy has not yet been quantified. Here, we develop both a theoretical and simulation framework in the simplified case of two reference species, and compute binning accuracy over a wide range of parameters, including sequence length, species-query divergence time, divergence times of the reference species, reference database completeness, sample age and effective population size. We consider two assignment methods and contextualize our results using parameters from a recent ancient environmental DNA study, comparing them to the commonly used discriminative k-mer-based method Clark (Current Biology, 31, 2021, 2728; BMC Genomics, 16, 2015, 1). Our results quantify the degradation in assignment accuracy as the samples diverge from their closest reference sequence, and with incompleteness of reference sequences. We also provide a framework in which others can compute expected accuracy for their particular method or parameter set. Code is available at https://github.com/bdesanctis/binning-accuracy.

The untapped potential of macrofossils in ancient plant DNA research

The rapid development of ancient DNA analysis in the last decades has induced a paradigm shift in ecology and evolution. Driven by a combination of breakthroughs in DNA isolation techniques, high-throughput sequencing, and bioinformatics, ancient genome-scale data for a rapidly growing variety of taxa are now available, allowing researchers to directly observe demographic and evolutionary processes over time. However, the vast majority of paleogenomic studies still focus on human or animal remains. In this article, we make the case for a vast untapped resource of ancient plant material that is ideally suited for paleogenomic analyses: plant remains, such as needles, leaves, wood, seeds, or fruits, that are deposited in natural archives, such as lake sediments, permafrost, or even ice caves. Such plant remains are commonly found in large numbers and in stratigraphic sequence through time and have so far been used primarily to reconstruct past local species presences and abundances. However, they are also unique repositories of genetic information with the potential to revolutionize the fields of ecology and evolution by directly studying microevolutionary processes over time. Here, we give an overview of the current state-of-the-art, address important challenges, and highlight new research avenues to inspire future research.

Limited decadal growth of mountain birch saplings has minor impact on surrounding tundra vegetation

Temperatures over the Arctic region are increasing at three times the rate of the global average. Consequently, Arctic vegetation is changing and trees are encroaching into the tundra. In this study, we examine the establishment and growth of mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. tortuosa), which forms the treeline in subarctic Europe, and its impact on community composition across the treeline ecotone nearby Abisko, Sweden. Birch advancement along elevational gradients was studied by comparing data collected in 2016 with data collected 10 and 15 years previously. Species identity, cover, and phylogenetic relatedness were used to assess the impact of birch encroachment on community composition. Our results show that birch occurrence above the treeline did not affect plant community composition, probably owing to the observed lack of significant growth due to herbivore browsing, nitrogen limitation, or a reduction in snow cover. Independent of birch performance, the tundra community structure shifted toward a novel community dissimilar from the forest plant community found below the treeline. Taken together, our findings are explained by species-specific responses to climate change, rather than by a linear forest advance. Future treeline advancements are likely more restricted than previously expected.

Landscape Genomics Provides Evidence of Ecotypic Adaptation and a Barrier to Gene Flow at Treeline for the Arctic Foundation Species Eriophorum vaginatum

Global climate change has resulted in geographic range shifts of flora and fauna at a global scale. Extreme environments, like the Arctic, are seeing some of the most pronounced changes. This region covers 14% of the Earth's land area, and while many arctic species are widespread, understanding ecotypic variation at the genomic level will be important for elucidating how range shifts will affect ecological processes. Tussock cottongrass (Eriophorum vaginatum L.) is a foundation species of the moist acidic tundra, whose potential decline due to competition from shrubs may affect ecosystem stability in the Arctic. We used double-digest Restriction Site-Associated DNA sequencing to identify genomic variation in 273 individuals of E. vaginatum from 17 sites along a latitudinal gradient in north central Alaska. These sites have been part of 30 + years of ecological research and are inclusive of a region that was part of the Beringian refugium. The data analyses included genomic population structure, demographic models, and genotype by environment association. Genome-wide SNP investigation revealed environmentally associated variation and population structure across the sampled range of E. vaginatum, including a genetic break between populations north and south of treeline. This structure is likely the result of subrefugial isolation, contemporary isolation by resistance, and adaptation. Forty-five candidate loci were identified with genotype-environment association (GEA) analyses, with most identified genes related to abiotic stress. Our results support a hypothesis of limited gene flow based on spatial and environmental factors for E. vaginatum, which in combination with life history traits could limit range expansion of southern ecotypes northward as the tundra warms. This has implications for lower competitive attributes of northern plants of this foundation species likely resulting in changes in ecosystem productivity.

Placing Ancient DNA Sequences into Reference Phylogenies

Joint phylogenetic analysis of ancient DNA (aDNA) with modern phylogenies is hampered by low sequence coverage and post-mortem deamination, often resulting in overconservative or incorrect assignment. We provide a new efficient likelihood-based workflow, pathPhynder, that takes advantage of all the polymorphic sites in the target sequence. This effectively evaluates the number of ancestral and derived alleles present on each branch and reports the most likely placement of an ancient sample in the phylogeny and a haplogroup assignment, together with alternatives and supporting evidence. To illustrate the application of pathPhynder, we show improved Y chromosome assignments for published aDNA sequences, using a newly compiled Y variation data set (120,908 markers from 2,014 samples) that significantly enhances Y haplogroup assignment for low coverage samples. We apply the method to all published male aDNA samples from Africa, giving new insights into ancient migrations and the relationships between ancient and modern populations. The same software can be used to place samples with large amounts of missing data into other large non-recombining phylogenies such as the mitochondrial tree.

Process-explicit models reveal pathway to extinction for woolly mammoth using pattern-oriented validation

Pathways to extinction start long before the death of the last individual. However, causes of early stage population declines and the susceptibility of small residual populations to extirpation are typically studied in isolation. Using validated process-explicit models, we disentangle the ecological mechanisms and threats that were integral in the initial decline and later extinction of the woolly mammoth. We show that reconciling ancient DNA data on woolly mammoth population decline with fossil evidence of location and timing of extinction requires process-explicit models with specific demographic and niche constraints, and a constrained synergy of climatic change and human impacts. Validated models needed humans to hasten climate-driven population declines by many millennia, and to allow woolly mammoths to persist in mainland Arctic refugia until the mid-Holocene. Our results show that the role of humans in the extinction dynamics of woolly mammoth began well before the Holocene, exerting lasting effects on the spatial pattern and timing of its range-wide extinction.