COVID-19 dynamics after a national immunization program in Israel

Does enhanced educational intervention reduce breakthrough infection and mental health problems via improving acceptance of COVID-19 booster shots in Chinese non-healthcare workers: A randomized controlled trial?

BACKGROUND

Despite vaccination and booster shots proving more effective than workplace measures in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic, hesitancy towards compulsory booster shots remains. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of an enhanced educational intervention program in improving the acceptance of COVID-19 booster shots and reducing breakthrough infections among non-healthcare workers in Hong Kong.

METHODS

In this 9-month randomized controlled trial (RCT), workers were randomly allocated to either the intervention or control group. The intervention group received educational sessions at baseline and at 3-month, covering general health and evidence-based information on the efficacy and safety of COVID-19 vaccines and booster shots. The control group received only general health information. All participants were followed up for an additional 6 months. The primary outcomes were intention and acceptance of booster shots, as well as breakthrough infections. The DASS-21 scale was used to evaluate participants' mental health status, and two-way mixed ANOVA to analyze the group effect. A difference of ≥ 5 % in booster uptake between the intervention and control group indicated a practical significance in infection control.

RESULTS

Among 310 consenting workers, 282 (91.0 %) of them completed the trial. At recruitment, the booster uptake rate was similar between the intervention and control groups (62.0 % vs. 62.1 %). After the educational intervention sessions, the intervention group showed a higher booster uptake rate (76.1 % vs. 67.9 %). A lower rate of breakthrough infection was observed in the intervention group during the latest follow-up period (23.2 % vs. 29.5 %); however, no change in the intention to get booster shots were recorded for all subjects.

CONCLUSION

This enhanced educational intervention program significantly improves booster uptake rates and reduces COVID-19 breakthrough infection rates among non-healthcare workers. (Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov - NCT05197673).

Conspiracy beliefs explain why intolerance of uncertainty, personal control, and political uncontrollability predict willingness to get vaccinated against COVID-19

Conspiracy theories tend to be disseminated in times when anxiety and uncertainty prevail. Thus, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic was fertile ground for the dissemination of conspiracy theories. The current study examined the role of conspiracy belief in the association between individual differences in perceptions of lack of control and certainty, and willingness to get vaccinated against COVID-19. Participants (N = 323) completed measures of willingness to get vaccinated, belief in COVID-19 vaccines conspiracy, intolerance of uncertainty (IOU), perceived personal control, and political uncontrollability. Results show that conspiracy beliefs mediated the positive association between perceived personal control and willingness to get vaccinated, and the negative association between political uncontrollability and willingness to get vaccinated. Additionally, conspiracy belief had a suppression effect on the association between IOU and willingness to get vaccinated. These findings indicate that uncertainty and sense of lack of control heighten the need for an explanation that offers some degree of clarity, which in turn is related to adoption of conspiracy theories and may consequently have negative effects on health behavior.

Enhanced immunity against SARS-CoV-2 in returning Chinese individuals

Global COVID-19 vaccination programs effectively contained the fast spread of SARS-CoV-2. Characterizing the immunity status of returned populations will favor understanding the achievement of herd immunity and long-term management of COVID-19 in China. Individuals were recruited from 7 quarantine stations in Guangzhou, China. Blood and throat swab specimens were collected from participants, and their immunity status was determined through competitive ELISA, microneutralization assay and enzyme-linked FluoroSpot assay. A total of 272 subjects were involved in the questionnaire survey, of whom 235 (86.4%) were returning Chinese individuals and 37 (13.6%) were foreigners. Blood and throat swab specimens were collected from 108 returning Chinese individuals. Neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 were detected in ~90% of returning Chinese individuals, either in the primary or the homologous and heterologous booster vaccination group. The serum NAb titers were significantly decreased against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.5, BF.7, BQ.1 and XBB.1 compared with the prototype virus. However, memory T-cell responses, including specific IFN-γ and IL-2 responses, were not different in either group. Smoking, alcohol consumption, SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19 vaccination, and the time interval between last vaccination and sampling were independent influencing factors for NAb titers against prototype SARS-CoV-2 and variants of concern. The vaccine dose was the unique common influencing factor for Omicron subvariants. Enhanced immunity against SARS-CoV-2 was established in returning Chinese individuals who were exposed to reinfection and vaccination. Domestic residents will benefit from booster homologous or heterologous COVID-19 vaccination after reopening of China, which is also useful against breakthrough infection.

Outcomes and Healthcare Resource Utilization in Patients with COVID-19 Treated with Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir: Real-World Data Analysis

Background: Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir was granted emergency use authorization in Israel in January 2022 to treat high-risk patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19. The aim of the study was to assess the association between nirmatrelvir-ritonavir treatment and COVID-19-related hospitalization and healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) in a country with a high level of vaccinations compared to patients who were offered treatment and declined. Methods: The Maccabi Healthcare Services dataset was used to identify high-risk SARS-CoV-2-positive adults from January to February 2022 who received nirmatrelvir-ritonavir within 5 days of symptom onset (treatment group) or who were offered nirmatrelvir-ritonavir treatment and declined it (reference group). COVID-19-related hospitalizations and all-cause mortality and HCRU within 30 days were compared between treatment and reference groups using inverse probability of treatment weighting. Results: Treatment and reference groups included 3460 (median age, 68.4 years) and 1654 (70.2 years) patients, respectively. Patients with ≥1 dose of COVID-19 vaccine accounted for 89.5% (treatment group) and 72.1% (reference group) of the total. Treatment was associated with a lower risk of COVID-19-related hospitalization (adjusted OR, 0.59 [95% CI, 0.41,0.83]). Results were similar by age group (18-64/≥65 years) and among patients with/without vaccination in the prior 180 days. There were 11 (0.3%) versus 11 (0.7%) deaths in the treatment and reference groups, respectively. Treated patients had lower inpatient HCRU and greater less intensive outpatient HCRU (e.g., telemedicine and emergency room visits). Conclusions: Nirmatrelvir-ritonavir treatment was associated with a reduced risk of COVID-19-related hospitalization and a shift to less intensive outpatient HCRU. Comparison with a reference group of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir-eligible patients who declined treatment enabled an unbiased outcome assessment. Real-world data gathered during the Omicron BA.1 variant wave of COVID-19 in Israel support the continued use of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir for high-risk adults of all ages, regardless of previous vaccinations.

Understanding the oscillations of an epidemic due to vaccine hesitancy

Vaccine hesitancy threatens to reverse the progress in tackling vaccine-preventable diseases. We used an $ SIS $ model with a game theory model for vaccination and parameters from the COVID-19 pandemic to study how vaccine hesitancy impacts epidemic dynamics. The system showed three asymptotic behaviors: total rejection of vaccinations, complete acceptance, and oscillations. With increasing fear of infection, stable endemic states become periodic oscillations. Our results suggest that managing fear of infection relative to vaccination is vital to successful mass vaccinations.

Country-specific determinants for COVID-19 case fatality rate and response strategies from a global perspective: an interpretable machine learning framework

BACKGROUND

There are significant geographic inequities in COVID-19 case fatality rates (CFRs), and comprehensive understanding its country-level determinants in a global perspective is necessary. This study aims to quantify the country-specific risk of COVID-19 CFR and propose tailored response strategies, including vaccination strategies, in 156 countries.

METHODS

Cross-temporal and cross-country variations in COVID-19 CFR was identified using extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) including 35 factors from seven dimensions in 156 countries from 28 January, 2020 to 31 January, 2022. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) was used to further clarify the clustering of countries by the key factors driving CFR and the effect of concurrent risk factors for each country. Increases in vaccination rates was simulated to illustrate the reduction of CFR in different classes of countries.

FINDINGS

Overall COVID-19 CFRs varied across countries from 28 Jan 2020 to 31 Jan 31 2022, ranging from 68 to 6373 per 100,000 population. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the determinants of CFRs first changed from health conditions to universal health coverage, and then to a multifactorial mixed effect dominated by vaccination. In the Omicron period, countries were divided into five classes according to risk determinants. Low vaccination-driven class (70 countries) mainly distributed in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, and include the majority of low-income countries (95.7%) with many concurrent risk factors. Aging-driven class (26 countries) mainly distributed in high-income European countries. High disease burden-driven class (32 countries) mainly distributed in Asia and North America. Low GDP-driven class (14 countries) are scattered across continents. Simulating a 5% increase in vaccination rate resulted in CFR reductions of 31.2% and 15.0% for the low vaccination-driven class and the high disease burden-driven class, respectively, with greater CFR reductions for countries with high overall risk (SHAP value > 0.1), but only 3.1% for the ageing-driven class.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence from this study suggests that geographic inequities in COVID-19 CFR is jointly determined by key and concurrent risks, and achieving a decreasing COVID-19 CFR requires more than increasing vaccination coverage, but rather targeted intervention strategies based on country-specific risks.

Investigating the trend of demographic changes, mortality, clinical and paraclinical findings of patients hospitalized in the Corona ward, before and after the start of general vaccination of COVID-19

BACKGROUND

Prioritizing prevention over treatment has been a longstanding principle in the world health system. This study aims to compare the demographic changes, mortality, clinical, and paraclinical findings of patients hospitalized in the Corona ward before and after the start of general vaccination.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study utilized the simple random sampling method in 2022, analyzing 300 medical records of patients admitted to the Corona ward at 22 Bahman Khaf Hospital. Data were collected using a checklist with the help of the Medical Care Monitoring System and analyzed using SPSS-22 statistical software and Chi-square statistical test at a significance level of p < 0.05.

RESULTS

Before the start of general vaccination for COVID-19, the majority of patients were hospitalized in the Corona Intensive Care Unit (59.3%), aged between 51 and 65 years (47.3%), hospitalized for more than 3 days (54%), required intubation (49.3%), had SPO2 < 93% (60.7%), and exhibited common symptoms such as cough, shortness of breath, and loss of consciousness. Paraclinical findings included positive CRP, decreased lymphocytes, and ground glass opacity (GGO). After the start of general vaccination for COVID-19, most patients were hospitalized in the general care department of Corona (68%), aged between 36 and 50 years (47.3%), hospitalized for less than three days (66%), required intubation (20%), had SPO2 ≥ 93% (77.3%), and exhibited common symptoms such as weakness, headache, and body pain. Paraclinical findings were within the normal range.

CONCLUSIONS

General vaccination for COVID-19 has significantly reduced patient mortality and morbidity. Health policymakers should prioritize general vaccination to achieve herd immunity and improve public health.

A single dose for me, A wealth of protection for us: The public health cost of individualism in the rollout of COVID-19 vaccine

OBJECTIVE

This study examines whether individualism weakens the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccine eligibility expansions in the United States in 2021, and assesses the associated social benefits or costs associated with individualism.

METHODS

We construct a county-level composite individualism index as a proxy of culture and the fraction of vaccine eligible population as a proxy of vaccination campaign (mean: 41.34%). We estimate whether the COVID-19 vaccine eligibility policy is less effective in promoting vaccine coverage, reducing in COVID-19 related hospitalization and death using a linear two-way fixed effect model in a sample of 2866 counties for the period between early December 2020 and July 1, 2021. We also test whether individualism shapes people's attitudes towards vaccine using a linear probability model in a sample of 625,308 individuals aged 18-65 (mean age: 43.3; 49% male; 59.1% non-Hispanic white, 19.1% Hispanic, 12% African American; 5.9% Asian) from the Household Pulse Survey.

RESULTS

The effects of expanded vaccine eligibility are diminished in counties with greater individualism, as evidenced by lower effectiveness in increasing vaccination rates and reducing outpatient doctor visits primarily for COVID-related symptoms and COVID deaths. Moreover, our results show that this cultural influence on attitudes towards vaccine is more pronounced among the less educated, but unrelated to race.

CONCLUSION

Assuming an average level of vaccine eligibility policies and an average intensity of individualism across the nation, we calculate that the average social cost associated with an individualistic culture amid the pandemic is approximately $50.044 billion, equivalent to 1.32% of the total U.S. health care spending in 2019. Our paper suggests that strategies to promote public policy compliance should be tailored to accommodate cultural and social contexts.

Trends of the COVID-19 dynamics in 2022 and 2023 vs. the population age, testing and vaccination levels

Introduction

The population, governments, and researchers show much less interest in the COVID-19 pandemic. However, many questions still need to be answered: why the much less vaccinated African continent has accumulated 15 times less deaths per capita than Europe? or why in 2023 the global value of the case fatality risk is almost twice higher than in 2022 and the UK figure is four times higher than the global one?

Methods

The averaged daily numbers of cases DCC and death DDC per million, case fatality risks DDC/DCC were calculated for 34 countries and regions with the use of John Hopkins University (JHU) datasets. Possible linear and non-linear correlations with the averaged daily numbers of tests per thousand DTC, median age of population A, and percentages of vaccinations VC and boosters BC were investigated.

Results

Strong correlations between age and DCC and DDC values were revealed. One-year increment in the median age yielded 39.8 increase in DCC values and 0.0799 DDC increase in 2022 (in 2023 these figures are 5.8 and 0.0263, respectively). With decreasing of testing level DTC, the case fatality risk can increase drastically. DCC and DDC values increase with increasing the percentages of fully vaccinated people and boosters, which definitely increase for greater A. After removing the influence of age, no correlations between vaccinations and DCC and DDC values were revealed.

Discussion

The presented analysis demonstrates that age is a pivot factor of visible (registered) part of the COVID-19 pandemic dynamics. Much younger Africa has registered less numbers of cases and death per capita due to many unregistered asymptomatic patients. Of great concern is the fact that COVID-19 mortality in 2023 in the UK is still at least 4 times higher than the global value caused by seasonal flu.

Trends of Diagnosis, Disease Course, and Treatment of Atopic Dermatitis 2012-2021: Real-World Data from a Large Healthcare Provider

In the last decade, new treatments for atopic dermatitis (AD) have emerged. We aimed to describe trends of the diagnosis, disease course, and treatment of AD over a decade (2012-2021) using data from Maccabi Healthcare Services (a 2.7-million-member healthcare provider in Israel). The AD prevalence was stable (4.0% on 31 December 2021 vs. 4.3% on 31 December 2012). The annual AD incidence was also stable (5.8/1000 in 2012 and 5.7/1000 in 2021). AD-related treatment use was highest in the first year post-diagnosis, and it included, among children (n = 87,414) vs. adults (n = 36,865), low-potency topical corticosteroids (TCS) (41.8% vs. 27.1%), mid-potency TCS (30.1% vs. 28.1%), high-potency TCS (34.9% vs. 60.3%), topical calcineurin inhibitor (10.8% vs. 10.1%), phosphodiesterase-4-inhibitor (0.3% vs. 0.7% overall; approved in 2019), phototherapy (0.1% vs. 2.3%), and systemic/biologic treatments (13.0% vs. 13.3%). Among children diagnosed in 2012 and followed through to 2021 (n = 5248), 21.5% had ≥1 AD diagnosis/treatment 10 years later (among 3223 adults: 38.3%). We conclude that the incidence and prevalence rates of AD were comparable to those in similar database studies and remained relatively stable over the past decade. The results underscore the burden of medication use among children and adults, particularly in the first year after AD diagnosis, and the low rate of AD diagnosis among patients originally diagnosed as children 10 years earlier.

Systems Biology Approaches to Understanding COVID-19 Spread in the Population

In essence, the COVID-19 pandemic can be regarded as a systems biology problem, with the entire world as the system, and the human population as the element transitioning from one state to another with certain transition rates. While capturing all the relevant features of such a complex system is hardly possible, compartmental epidemiological models can be used as an appropriate simplification to model the system's dynamics and infer its important characteristics, such as basic and effective reproductive numbers of the virus. These measures can later be used as response variables in feature selection methods to uncover the main factors contributing to disease transmissibility. We here demonstrate that a combination of dynamic modeling and machine learning approaches can represent a powerful tool in understanding the spread, not only of COVID-19, but of any infectious disease of epidemiological proportions.

Association between COVID-19 vaccination and critical outcomes among older adults with dementia: a comparative cohort study

Background

As COVID-19 vaccines became available, understanding their potential benefits in vulnerable populations has gained significance. This study explored the advantages of COVID-19 vaccination in individuals with cognitive disorders by analyzing health-related variables and outcomes.

Methods

A prospective cohort study analyzed electronic medical records of 25,733 older adults with cognitive disorders and 65,544 older adults without cognitive disorders from March 2020 to February 2022. COVID-19 vaccination status was the primary exposure variable, categorized as fully vaccinated or unvaccinated. The primary outcomes measured were all-cause mortality and hospitalization rates within 14 and 400 days post-vaccination. Data on vaccination status, demographics, comorbidities, testing history, and clinical outcomes were collected from electronic health records. The study was ethically approved by the relevant medical facility's Institutional Review Board (0075-22-MHS).

Results

Vaccinated individuals had significantly lower mortality rates in both groups. In the research group, the mortality rate was 52% (n = 1852) for unvaccinated individuals and 7% (n = 1,241) for vaccinated individuals (p < 0.001). Similarly, in the control group, the mortality rate was 13.58% (n = 1,508) for unvaccinated individuals and 1.85% (n = 936) for vaccinated individuals (p < 0.001), despite higher COVID-19 positivity rates. In the research group, 30.26% (n = 1,072) of unvaccinated individuals tested positive for COVID-19, compared to 37.16% (n = 6,492) of vaccinated individuals (p < 0.001). In the control group, 17.31% (n = 1922) of unvaccinated individuals were COVID-19 positive, while 37.25% (n = 18,873) of vaccinated individuals tested positive (p < 0.001). Vaccination also showed potential benefits in mental health support. The usage of antipsychotic drugs was lower in vaccinated individuals (28.43%, n = 4,967) compared to unvaccinated individuals (37.48%, n = 1,328; 95% CI [0.92-1.28], p < 0.001). Moreover, vaccinated individuals had lower antipsychotic drug prescription rates (23.88%, n = 4,171) compared to unvaccinated individuals (27.83%, n = 968; 95% CI [-1.02 to -0.63], p < 0.001). Vaccination appeared to have a positive impact on managing conditions like diabetes, with 38.63% (n = 6,748) of vaccinated individuals having diabetes compared to 41.55% (n = 1,472) of unvaccinated individuals (95% CI [0.24, 0.48], p < 0.001).

Discussion

The findings highlight the importance of vaccination in safeguarding vulnerable populations during the pandemic and call for further research to optimize healthcare strategies for individuals with cognitive disorders.

Immunogenicity and safety of COVID-19 vaccines among people living with HIV: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Available data suggest that the immunogenicity of COVID-19 vaccines might decrease in the immunocompromised population, but data on vaccine immunogenicity and safety among people living with HIV (PLWH) are still lacking. The purpose of this meta-analysis is to compare the immunogenicity and safety of COVID-19 vaccines in PLWH with healthy controls. We comprehensively searched the following databases: PubMed, Cochrane Library, and EMBASE. The risk ratio (RR) of seroconversion after the first and second doses of a COVID-19 vaccine was separately pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Seroconversion rate was lower among PLWH compared with healthy individuals after the first (RR = 0.77, 95% confident interval (CI) 0.64-0.92) and second doses (RR = 0.97, 95%CI 0.95-0.99). The risk of total adverse reactions among PLWH is similar to the risk in the healthy group, after the first (RR = 0.87, 95%CI 0.70-1.10) and second (RR = 0.83, 95%CI 0.65-1.07) doses. This study demonstrates that the immunogenicity and safety of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in fully vaccinated HIV-infected patients were generally satisfactory. A second dose was related to seroconversion enhancement. Therefore, we considered that a booster dose may provide better seroprotection for PLWH. On the basis of a conventional two-dose regimen for COVID-19 vaccines, the booster dose is very necessary.

Early impact of COVID-19 vaccination on older populations in four countries of the Americas, 2021

Objective

To estimate the early impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination on cases in older populations in four countries (Chile, Colombia, Guatemala, and the United States of America), and on deaths in Chile and Guatemala.

Methods

Data were obtained from national databases of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths and vaccinations between 1 July 2020 and 31 August 2021. In each country, pre- and post-vaccination incidence ratios were calculated for COVID-19 cases and deaths in prioritized groups (50-59, 60-69, and ≥70 years) compared with those in the reference group (<50 years). Vaccination effect was calculated as the percentage change in incidence ratios between pre- and post-vaccination periods.

Results

The ratio of COVID-19 cases in those aged ≥50 years to those aged <50 years decreased significantly after vaccine implementation by 9.8% (95% CI: 9.5 to 10.1%) in Chile, 22.5% (95% CI: 22.0 to 23.1%) in Colombia, 20.8% (95% CI: 20.6 to 21.1%) in Guatemala, and 7.8% (95% CI: 7.6 to 7.9%) in the USA. Reductions in the ratio were highest in adults aged ≥70 years. The effect of vaccination on deaths, with time lags incorporated, was highest in the age group ≥70 years in both Chile and Guatemala: 14.4% (95% CI: 11.4 to 17.4%) and 37.3% (95% CI: 30.9 to 43.7%), respectively.

Conclusions

COVID-19 vaccination significantly reduced morbidity in the early post-vaccination period in targeted groups. In the context of a global pandemic with limited vaccine availability, prioritization strategies are important to reduce the burden of disease in high-risk age groups.

Real-World Utilization of Molnupiravir during the COVID-19 Omicron Surge in Israel

Molnupiravir (MOV) was introduced in Israel in January 2022 during the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron surge for high-risk patients contraindicated for nirmatrelvir/ritonavir. This retrospective cohort study aimed to describe characteristics of patients offered COVID-19 antiviral treatment in Maccabi Healthcare Services (antiviral treatment-eligible cohort; n = 5596) between 12 January and 28 February 2022, and the subset of these who were dispensed MOV (MOV-treated cohort; n = 1147), as well as outcomes following MOV dispensation. Median (interquartile range) age in the antiviral treatment-eligible and MOV-treated cohorts were 70.5 (61.1, 77.3) and 74.1 (64.3, 81.7) years, respectively. The MOV-treated cohort (male: 53.2%) had high rates of COVID-19 vaccination (91.4%) and comorbidities, including immunosuppression (40.0%) and chronic kidney disease (67.0%; eGFR < 30 mL/min/1.73 m2: 28.8%), and most used comedications either contraindicated or with major potential for drug-drug interactions with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (87.3%). At 28 days post-MOV dispensation, the cumulative incidence (95% CI) of COVID-19-related hospitalization and/or all-cause mortality was 3.6% (2.5%, 4.6%), with similar rates across sexes and age groups (18-64 vs. ≥65 years), and lower rates among recently vaccinated and/or recently SARS-CoV-2-infected patients. These data describe the characteristics and outcomes for MOV-treated patients in Israel, whose clinical characteristics may preclude the use of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir to treat their COVID-19 infection.

COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance and Hesitancy among Migrants, Refugees, and Foreign Workers: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Despite the effectiveness of current vaccines in reducing the spread and severity of SARS-CoV-2 infections, many people, including migrants, refugees, and foreign workers, are hesitant to be vaccinated. This systematic review and meta-analysis (SRMA) was conducted to determine the pooled prevalence estimate of the acceptance and hesitancy rates of the COVID-19 vaccine among these populations. A comprehensive search of the peer-reviewed literature indexed in PubMed, Scopus, Science Direct, and Web of Science databases was conducted. Initially, 797 potential records were identified, of which 19 articles met the inclusion criteria. A meta-analysis of proportions using data from 14 studies revealed that the overall acceptance rate of COVID vaccination among 29,152 subjects was 56.7% (95% CI: 44.9-68.5%), while the prevalence of vaccine hesitancy among 26,154 migrants reported in 12 studies was estimated to be 31.7% (95% CI: 44.9-68.5%). The acceptance rate for the COVID-19 vaccination first declined from 77.3% in 2020 to 52.9% in 2021 and then slightly increased to 56.1% in 2022. The most frequent factors influencing vaccine hesitancy were worries about vaccine efficacy and safety. Intensive vaccination campaigns should be implemented to raise vaccination awareness among migrants, which will increase the acceptance rate for the COVID-19 vaccine and result in herd immunity.

Testing persuasive messages about booster doses of COVID-19 vaccines on intention to vaccinate in Australian adults: A randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Achieving high COVID-19 vaccine booster coverage is an ongoing global challenge. Health authorities need evidence about effective communication interventions to improve acceptance and uptake. This study aimed to test effects of persuasive messages about COVID-19 vaccine booster doses on intention to vaccinate amongst eligible adults in Australia.

METHODS

In this online randomised controlled trial, adult participants received one of four intervention messages or a control message. The control message provided information about booster dose eligibility. Intervention messages added to the control message, each using a different persuasive strategy, including: emphasising personal health benefits of booster doses, community health benefits, non-health benefits, and personal agency in choosing vaccination. After the intervention, participants answered items about COVID-19 booster vaccine intention and beliefs. Intervention groups were compared to the control using tests of two proportions; differences of ≥5 percentage points were deemed clinically significant. A sub-group analysis was conducted among hesitant participants.

RESULTS

Of the 487 consenting and randomised participants, 442 (90.8%) completed the experiment and were included in the analysis. Participants viewing messages emphasising non-health benefits had the highest intention compared to those who viewed the control message (percentage point diff: 9.0, 95% CI -0.8, 18.8, p = 0.071). Intention was even higher among hesitant individuals in this intervention group compared to the control group (percentage point diff: 15.6, 95% CI -6.0, 37.3, p = 0.150). Conversely, intention was lower among hesitant individuals who viewed messages emphasising personal agency compared to the control group (percentage point diff: -10.8, 95% CI -33.0, 11.4, p = 0.330), although evidence in support of these findings is weak.

CONCLUSION

Health authorities should highlight non-health benefits to encourage COVID-19 vaccine booster uptake but use messages emphasising personal agency with caution. These findings can inform communication message development and strategies to improve COVID-19 vaccine booster uptake. Clinical trial registration: Registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12622001404718); trial webpage: https://www.anzctr.org.au/ACTRN12622001404718.aspx.

Reasons for COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in ethnic minority groups: A systematic review and thematic synthesis of initial attitudes in qualitative research

Despite being disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, ethnic and racial minority groups show widespread vaccine hesitancy. Adherence to ongoing booster vaccine campaigns is required to contain future spread of the virus and protect health systems. This review aims to appraise and synthesise qualitative studies published from December 2021 to February 2022 addressing the issue for an in-depth exploration of initial COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in minorities, including refugee, asylum seeker and migrant populations. A systematic literature search of five databases identified 15 eligible studies. Thematic synthesis identified three main themes of "institutional mistrust", "lack of confidence in vaccine and vaccine development process", and "lack of reliable information or messengers". Two minor themes included "complacency/perceived lack of need" and "structural barriers to vaccine access". "Institutional mistrust" permeated several other themes, demonstrating the need for culturally sensitive approaches. Applying our findings to the World Health Organisation's Three C Model of vaccine hesitancy, the "confidence" dimension appears to represent a disproportionately large barrier to vaccine uptake in ethnic minority groups. Indeed, nuanced adaptations of the model may be necessary to explain vaccine hesitancy in those groups. Further research is required to explore factors facilitating vaccine uptake to monitor changes in hesitancy over time.

Risk factors, clinical characteristics and prognostic value of acute kidney injury in COVID-19 compared with influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus

BACKGROUND

Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) complicates a substantial part of patients with COVID-19. Direct viral penetration of renal cells through the Angiotensin Converting Enzyme 2 receptor, and indirect damage by the aberrant inflammatory response characteristic of COVID-19 are likely mechanisms. Nevertheless, other common respiratory viruses such as Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) are also associated with AKI.

METHODS

We retrospectively compared the incidence, risk factors and outcomes of AKI among patients who were admitted to a tertiary hospital because of infection with COVID-19, influenza (A + B) or RSV.

RESULTS

We collected data of 2593 patients hospitalized with COVID-19, 2041 patients with influenza and 429 with RSV. Patients affected by RSV were older, had more comorbidities and presented with higher rates of AKI at admission and within 7 days (11.7% vs. 13.3% vs. 18% for COVID-19, influenza and RSV, respectively p = 0.001). Nevertheless, patients hospitalized with COVID-19 had higher mortality (18% with COVID-19 vs. 8.6% and 13.5% for influenza and RSV, respectively P < 0.001) and higher need of mechanical ventilation (12.4% vs. 6.5% vs.8.2% for COVID-19, influenza and RSV, respectively, P = 0.002). High ferritin levels and low oxygen saturation were independent risk factors for severe AKI only in the COVID-19 group. AKI in the first 48 h of admission and in the first 7 days of hospitalization were strong independent risk factors for adverse outcome in all groups.

CONCLUSION

Despite many reports of direct kidney injury by SARS-COV-2, AKI was less in patients with COVID-19 compared to influenza and RSV patients. AKI was a prognostic marker for adverse outcome across all viruses.

What we talk about when we talk about COVID-19 vaccination campaign impact: a narrative review

Background

The lack of precise definitions and terminological consensus about the impact studies of COVID-19 vaccination leads to confusing statements from the scientific community about what a vaccination impact study is.

Objective

The present work presents a narrative review, describing and discussing COVID-19 vaccination impact studies, mapping their relevant characteristics, such as study design, approaches and outcome variables, while analyzing their similarities, distinctions, and main insights.

Methods

The articles screening, regarding title, abstract, and full-text reading, included papers addressing perspectives about the impact of vaccines on population outcomes. The screening process included articles published before June 10, 2022, based on the initial papers' relevance to this study's research topics. The main inclusion criteria were data analyses and study designs based on statistical modelling or comparison of pre- and post-vaccination population.

Results

The review included 18 studies evaluating the vaccine impact in a total of 48 countries, including 32 high-income countries (United States, Israel, and 30 Western European countries) and 16 low- and middle-income countries (Brazil, Colombia, and 14 Eastern European countries). We summarize the main characteristics of the vaccination impact studies analyzed in this narrative review.

Conclusion

Although all studies claim to address the impact of a vaccination program, they differ significantly in their objectives since they adopt different definitions of impact, methodologies, and outcome variables. These and other differences are related to distinct data sources, designs, analysis methods, models, and approaches.

Clinical Profile and Risk Factors for Severe COVID-19 in Hospitalized Patients from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: Comparison between the First and Second Pandemic Waves

Since COVID-19 was declared a pandemic, Brazil has become one of the countries most affected by this disease. A year into the pandemic, a second wave of COVID-19 emerged, with a rapid spread of a new SARS-CoV-2 lineage of concern. Several vaccines have been granted emergency-use authorization, leading to a decrease in mortality and severe cases in many countries. However, the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants raises the alert for potential new waves of transmission and an increase in pathogenicity. We compared the demographic and clinical data of critically ill patients infected with COVID-19 hospitalized in Rio de Janeiro during the first and second waves between July 2020 and October 2021. In total, 106 participants were included in this study; among them, 88% had at least one comorbidity, and 37% developed severe disease. Disease severity was associated with older age, pre-existing neurological comorbidities, higher viral load, and dyspnea. Laboratory biomarkers related to white blood cells, coagulation, cellular injury, inflammation, renal, and liver injuries were significantly associated with severe COVID-19. During the second wave of the pandemic, the necessity of invasive respiratory support was higher, and more individuals with COVID-19 developed acute hepatitis, suggesting that the progression of the second wave resulted in an increase in severe cases. These results can contribute to understanding the behavior of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and may be helpful in predicting disease severity, which is a pivotal for guiding clinical care, improving patient outcomes, and defining public policies.

Which vaccination strategy against COVID-19?

BACKGROUND

Bottlenecks in the production and supply pipeline of vaccines against coronavirus disease 2019 have led some countries to consider the option of dose-sparing strategies (e.g., increasing the number of people who receive some vaccine by halving the dose or increasing the interval between doses). In this study we assess the contribution of vaccination strategies to reducing the mortality induced by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.

METHODS

This study focuses on the evolution of the pandemic and related vaccination efforts in five countries that have adopted different vaccination strategies or have experienced a bottleneck in their vaccine supply. The analysis is conducted using an autoregressive time-series approach through a system of simultaneous equations.

RESULTS

The outcome of the early months of the vaccination campaign in containing the number of deaths induced by the epidemic varies across our sample. Overall, our results highlight the effective role played by the vaccine in containing the death toll induced by the epidemic. We could not find evidence of reduced effectiveness of the second dose in the presence of an extended inter-dose interval. The effectiveness of the vaccination campaign results appears to be strongly affected by the stability of vaccine supply.

CONCLUSIONS

The vaccine is effective in containing the deaths caused by the virus, particularly when multiple doses have been administered. The stability of the vaccine pipeline plays a critical role in determining the effectiveness of the vaccination campaign.

Rapidly Establishing an Ultra-Cold Supply Chain of Vaccines in Israel: Evidence for the Efficacy of Inoculation to Mitigate the COVID-19 Pandemic

The agenda of this research was to investigate how to mitigate the spread of coronaviruses by rapidly establishing an ultra-cold supply chain of vaccines. Data analysis was conducted by linear regression utilizing a dataset publicly available from the Israel Ministry of Health regarding the daily rates of people vaccinated, tested, hospitalized, etc., since the start of the pandemic. The data provide statistical evidence for the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccines in diminishing a wide variety of disease factors, such as the number of patients who were lightly, moderately, or severely sick, and daily deaths, as well as the rate of spread (R-ratio) and number/percentage of people infected. Insightfully, the data corroborate how the first and second doses of the vaccines were able to decrease the wave of COVID-19, which hit Israel in January 2021, while the booster third dose was able to diminish a subsequent COVID-19 wave occurring in Israel in July 2021.

Deliberation, context, emotion and trust - understanding the dynamics of adults' COVID-19 vaccination decisions in Germany

BACKGROUND

Willingness to vaccinate against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which is vital to successful vaccination campaigns, is wavering and suboptimal. In Germany, quantitative research highlighted concerns regarding the safety and efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines as barriers to uptake, but qualitative insights regarding individuals' decisions about COVID-19 vaccines and how personal perceptions reflect or refute existing behavioral theories are lacking.

METHODS

To identify how individuals make COVID-19 vaccination decisions within real-life contexts, we conducted 33 semi-structured, in-depth qualitative interviews with individuals in Germany between March and April 2021 using maximum variation sampling, focusing on perceptions of COVID-19 vaccines. Analysis, informed by a framework approach, began in the field via debriefings and was amplified upon the conclusion of data collection.

RESULTS

Four interconnected themes (deliberation, context, emotion, trust) shaped respondents' decisions about vaccination. Personal deliberation regarding benefits and risks of vaccines and perceptions of the broader social and political context sparked a spectrum of emotions that underpinned vaccination decisions. Trust in science and researchers emerged as a powerful protective factor facilitating the decision to get vaccinated even amidst a rapidly changing context and disconcerting information.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings add to ongoing debates about the breadth of vaccination decisions by highlighting how respondents are influenced by their perceptions of the political context and the emotional heft of their decisions. The role of cognitive evaluation, context, and emotions mirrors other decision-making frameworks, particularly the Risk as Feelings Theory. We extend on the elements of this theory by highlighting trust as a protective factor when making decisions particularly in highly uncertain contexts. Success of vaccination campaigns, more important than ever as new variants of COVID-19 emerge, is interwoven with an ability to bolster trust in science. Communicating public-health decisions and information about vaccines transparently without instilling fear offers promising chances to strengthen public trust in COVID-19 vaccines.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

German Clinical Trials Register ( DRKS00024505 ).

Initial protection against SARS-CoV-2 omicron lineage infection in children and adolescents by BNT162b2 in Israel: an observational study

BACKGROUND

The BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) two-dose vaccine regiment for children and the BNT162b2 third dose for adolescents were approved shortly before the SARS-CoV-2 omicron (B.1.1.529) outbreak in Israel. We aimed to estimate the effects of these vaccines on the rates of confirmed infection against the omicron variant in children and adolescents.

METHODS

In this observational cohort study, we extracted data for the omicron-dominated (sublineage BA.1) period. We compared rates of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between children aged 5-10 years 14-35 days after receiving the second vaccine dose with an internal control group of children 3-7 days after receiving the first dose (when the vaccine is not yet effective). Similarly, we compared confirmed infection rates in adolescents aged 12-15 years 14-60 days after receiving a booster dose with an internal control group of adolescents 3-7 days after receiving the booster dose. We used Poisson regression, adjusting for age, sex, socioeconomic status, calendar week, and exposure.

FINDINGS

Between Dec 26, 2021, and Jan 8, 2022, we included 1 158 289 participants. In children aged 5-10 years, the adjusted rate of confirmed infection was 2·3 times (95% CI 2·0-2·5) lower in children who received a second dose than in the internal control group. The adjusted infection rate in children who received a second dose was 102 infections per 100 000 risk-days (94-110) compared with 231 infections per 100 000 risk-days (215-248) in the corresponding internal control cohort. In adolescents aged 12-15 years, the booster dose decreased confirmed infection rates by 3·3 times (2·8-4·0) compared with in the internal control group. The adjusted infection rate of the booster cohort was 70 per 100 000 risk-days (60-81) compared with 232 per 100 000 risk-days (212-254) in the internal control cohort.

INTERPRETATION

A recent two-dose vaccination regimen with BNT162b2 and a recent booster dose in adolescents substantially reduced the rate of confirmed infection compared with the internal control groups. Future studies are needed to assess the duration of this protection and protection against other outcomes such as paediatric inflammatory multisystem syndrome temporally associated with SARS-CoV-2 and long-COVID.

FUNDING

None.

Enhanced virulence and waning vaccine-elicited antibodies account for breakthrough infections caused by SARS-CoV-2 delta and beyond

Here we interrogate the factors responsible for SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections in a K18-hACE2 transgenic mouse model. We show that Delta and the closely related Kappa variant cause viral pneumonia and severe lung lesions in K18-hACE2 mice. Human COVID-19 mRNA post-vaccination sera after the 2nd dose are significantly less efficient in neutralizing Delta/Kappa than early 614G virus in vitro and in vivo. By 5 months post-vaccination, ≥50% of donors lack detectable neutralizing antibodies against Delta and Kappa and all mice receiving 5-month post-vaccination sera die after the lethal challenges. Although a 3rd vaccine dose can boost antibody neutralization against Delta in vitro and in vivo, the mean log neutralization titers against the latest Omicron subvariants are 1/3-1/2 of those against the original 614D virus. Our results suggest that enhanced virulence, greater immune evasion, and waning of vaccine-elicited protection account for SARS-CoV-2 variants caused breakthrough infections.

The race Against Time to Save Human Lives During the COVID-19 With Vaccines: Global Evidence

Voluminous vaccine campaigns have been used globally, since the COVID-19 pandemic has brought devastating mortality and destructively unprecedented consequences to different aspects of economies. This study aimed to identify how the numbers of new deaths and new cases per million changed after half of the population had been vaccinated. This paper used actual pandemic consequence variables (death and infected rates) together with vaccination uptake rates from 127 countries to shed new light on the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines. The 50% uptake rate was chosen as the threshold to estimate the real benefits of vaccination campaigns for reducing COVID-19 infection and death cases using the difference-in-differences (DiD) imputation estimator. In addition, a number of control variables, such as government interventions and people's mobility patterns during the pandemic, were also included in the study. The number of new deaths per million significantly decreased after half of the population was vaccinated, but the number of new cases did not change significantly. We found that the effects were more pronounced in Europe and North America than in other continents. Our results remain robust after using other proxies and testing the sensitivity of the vaccinated proportion. We show the causal evidence of significantly lower death rates in countries where half of the population is vaccinated globally. This paper expresses the importance of vaccine campaigns in saving human lives during the COVID-19 pandemic, and its results can be used to communicate the benefits of vaccines and to fight vaccine hesitancy.

Adherence to and early adverse events of COVID-19 vaccine in a cohort of 600 Italian breastfeeding and pregnant physicians

Pregnant and breastfeeding women (PBW) have been excluded from COVID-19 vaccine registry and the majority of post-marketing trials, despite the recognized increased risk of severe infections and complications. The lack of efficacy and safety data prevented the formulation of specific indications/guidelines for vaccination and could have also contributed to increased vaccine hesitancy (VH) in PBW. The aim of this cross-sectional study is to assess the rate and predictors of VH, and early adverse events (AEFI) following COVID-19 vaccine in PBW with a cross-sectional study. In January 2021, a purposely designed questionnaire was administered to 600 PBW part of a Facebook group of physicians, immunized with two doses of Comirnaty®. Thirty-eight (29%) pregnant women and 13 (2.8%) breastfeeders were hesitant. The only statistically significant negative predictor of COVID-19 VH appeared to be having had the flu shot in 2020/2021 (OR: 0.35; 95% CI: 0.13-0.97; p = .044). Approximately 27% of PBW reported hesitancy toward the 2020/2021 season influenza vaccine. Among the vaccinated subjects, 51.6% of pregnant and 75.2% of breastfeeding women reported at least one symptom after the first, and 82.4% and 81.6%, respectively, after the second dose. Nausea/vomiting, fatigue, headache and arthralgia/myalgia were the most common symptoms; dizziness, shivering, syncope and limb paresthesia were rarely reported. Among infants of breastfeeding mothers, six experienced fever, five rash and four moderate and self-limiting diarrhea. Preliminary data on mRNA COVID-19 vaccine in PBW and in their infants are reassuring since AEFI, although frequent, are typically mild and similar to those occurring in the general population, and in PBW after other vaccines. Larger studies with longer follow-up after vaccination are strongly recommended to develop recommendations in these patients.

Association between COVID-19 Burden, Population Vaccination Status, and Urologic Oncology Surgery Volume: A National Multicenter Cross-Sectional Study

Initial deleterious effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on urologic oncology surgeries are well described, but the possible influence of vaccination efforts and those of pandemic conditions on surgical volumes is unclear. Our aim was to examine the association between changing vaccination status and COVID-19 burden throughout the pandemic and the volume of urologic oncology surgeries in Israel. This multi-center cross-sectional study included data collected from five tertiary centers between January 2019 and December 2021. All 7327 urologic oncology surgeries were included. Epidemiological data were obtained from the Israeli Ministry of Health database. A rising trend in total urologic oncology surgery volumes was observed with ensuing COVID-19 wave peaks over time (X2 = 13.184, df = 3, p = 0.004). Total monthly surgical volumes correlated with total monthly hospitalizations due to COVID-19 (R = -0.36, p = 0.015), as well as with the monthly average Oxford Stringency Index (R = -0.31, p = 0.035). The cumulative percent of vaccinations and of new COVID-19 cases per month did not correlate with total monthly urologic surgery volumes. Our study demonstrates the gradual acclimation of the Israeli healthcare system to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, hospitalizations due to COVID-19, as well as restriction stringency, correlate with lower volumes of urologic oncological surgeries, regardless of the population's vaccination status.

The role of Israeli researchers in the scientific literature regarding COVID-19 vaccines

BACKGROUND

The accurate and timely publication of scientific findings is a key component of the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This article explores the role of Israeli researchers in the scientific literature regarding COVID-19 vaccines.

METHODS

Content and bibliometric analysis of articles included in the Web of Science database regarding COVID-19 vaccines, that were published between January 2020 and June 2022.

RESULTS

The Web of Science includes 18,596 articles regarding COVID-19 vaccines that were published between January 2020 and June 2022. 536 (3%) of those articles had at least one Israeli author. These "Israeli articles" accounted for 11% of the NEJM articles on COVID-19 vaccines, 9% of such articles in Nature Medicine, and 4% of such articles in the Lancet. 80 of the 536 Israeli articles (15%) were recognized as "Highly Cited Papers" (articles that rank in the top 1% by citations for field and publication year). Most of the Israeli Highly Cited Papers (HCPs) analyzed the safety and/or efficacy of the COVID-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech (BNT162b2). Most of the Israeli HCPs made use of detailed and comprehensive individual data available from Israel's health plans, hospitals, or Ministry of Health. The 15% HCP rate (i.e., the number of HCPs divided by the number of all articles) for the Israeli articles was triple the HCP rate for all articles on COVID-19 vaccines (5%). A key factor contributing to Israel's prominent role in rapid publication of vaccination impact studies was Israel's being a world leader in the initial vaccination rollout, the administration of boosters, and the vaccination of pregnant women. Other contributing factors include Israeli researchers' access to well-developed electronic health record systems linking vaccinations and outcomes, the analytic strengths of leading Israeli researchers and research institutions, collaborations with leading research institutions in other countries, and the ability to quickly identify emerging research opportunities and mobilize accordingly. Recent developments in the priorities and selection criteria of leading journals have also played a role; these include an increased openness to well-designed observational studies and to manuscripts from outside of Europe and North America.

CONCLUSIONS

Israeli researchers, Israeli research institutions, and the Israeli government can, and should, take concrete steps to build upon lessons learned in the course of the recent surge of high-quality publications related to COVID-19 vaccines (such as the value of linking data across organizations). These lessons can be applied to a wide range of fields, including fields that go well beyond vaccines and pandemic responses.

Study of the Deep Processes of COVID-19 in Russia: Finding Ways to Identify Preventive Measures

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a huge impact on all areas of human life. Since the risk of biological threats will persist in the future, it is very important to ensure mobilization readiness for a prompt response to the possible emergence of epidemics of infectious diseases. Therefore, from both a theoretical and practical standpoint, it is currently necessary to conduct a thorough examination of the COVID-19 epidemic. The goal of this research is to investigate the underlying processes that led to the COVID-19 pandemic in Russia and to identify ways to improve preventive measures and ensure mobilization readiness for a quick response to potential COVID-19-like pandemics. This research will analyze the daily dynamics of the number of infection cases and the number of new lethal cases of COVID-19. We analyzed the daily number of new cases of COVID-19 infection N(d), the daily number of new lethal cases L(d), their percentage ratio L(d)/N(d) 100% in Russia for 2 years of the pandemic (from the beginning of the pandemic to 23 March 2022), the rate of increase and decrease of these indicators (dN(d)/dd and dL(d)/dd), as well as their spectra created on the basis of wavelet analysis. Wavelet analysis of the deep structure of the N(d) and L(d) wavelet spectra made it possible to identify the presence of internal cycles, the study of which makes it possible to predict the presence of days with the maximum number of infections and new deaths in a pandemic similar to COVID-19 and outline ways and methods for improving preventive measures and measures to ensure mobilization readiness for a rapid response to the potential emergence of pandemics similar to COVID-19.

Mucosal immunization with a delta-inulin adjuvanted recombinant spike vaccine elicits lung-resident immune memory and protects mice against SARS-CoV-2

Multiple SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates have been approved for use and have had a major impact on the COVID-19 pandemic. There remains, however, a significant need for vaccines that are safe, easily transportable and protective against infection, as well as disease. Mucosal vaccination is favored for its ability to induce immune memory at the site of infection, making it appealing for SARS-CoV-2 vaccine strategies. In this study we performed in-depth analysis of the immune responses in mice to a subunit recombinant spike protein vaccine formulated with the delta-inulin adjuvant Advax when administered intratracheally (IT), versus intramuscular delivery (IM). Both routes produced robust neutralizing antibody titers (NAb) and generated sterilizing immunity against SARS-CoV-2. IT delivery, however, produced significantly higher systemic and lung-local NAb that resisted waning up to six months post vaccination, and only IT delivery generated inducible bronchus-associated lymphoid tissue (iBALT), a site of lymphocyte antigen presentation and proliferation. This was coupled with robust and long-lasting lung tissue-resident memory CD4⁺ and CD8⁺ T cells that were not observed in IM-vaccinated mice. This study provides a detailed view of the lung-resident cellular response to IT vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 and demonstrates the importance of delivery site selection in the development of vaccine candidates.

Effect of same-arm versus cross-arm administration of sequential doses of BNT162b2 on short-term vaccine effectiveness – A retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

We sought to test whether administering the second BNT162B2 vaccine dose on the cross-arm or the same arm as the first dose creates a more robust local and systemic immune response leading to favourable clinical results.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted on all Clalit Health Services members who received the BNT162b2 vaccine between December 2020 and December 2021. The primary endpoint was a positive RT-PCR test result for SARS-CoV-2 38 days after administration of the second dose.

RESULTS

During the study, 2 678 226 Clalit Health Services members received both doses of the BNT162b vaccine and were eligible for analysis. Of these, 2 367 694 (88.41%) received the first two doses of the vaccine on the same arm. The primary endpoint was observed in 2061 (0.077%) participants. The primary endpoint was observed less frequently in the same-arm versus the cross-arm group (1760/2 365 934 and 301/310 231 respectively), with an adjusted OR of 0.83 (95% CI, 0.73-0.94; p 0.004).

DISCUSSION

Administration of the first and second BNT162b2 vaccine doses in the same arm might increase vaccine effectiveness in the short term possibly because of more robust local lymph node activation. This easy intervention could have a public health impact on the implementation of future mRNA vaccines. Further studies are needed to assess the long-term effectiveness of our findings.

Measuring the Impact of Future Outbreaks? A Secondary Analysis of Routinely Available Data in Spain

Background: As of 7 January 2022, it is estimated that 5.5 million people worldwide have died from COVID-19. Although the full impact of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) on healthcare systems worldwide is still unknown, we must consider the socio-economic impact. For instance, it has resulted in an 11% decrease in the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in the European Union. We aim to provide valuable information for policymakers by analysing widely available epidemiological and socioeconomic indicators using Spanish data. Methods: Secondary analysis of routinely available data from various official data sources covering the period from 1 March 2020 to 31 March 2021. To measure the impact of COVID-19 in the population, a set of epidemiological and socioeconomic indicators were used. The interrelationships between these socioeconomic and epidemiological indicators were analysed using Pearson's correlation. Their behaviour was grouped according to their greater capacity to measure the impact of the pandemic and was compared to identify those that are more appropriate to monitor future health crises (primary outcome) using multivariate analysis of canonical correlation for estimating the correlation between indicators using different units of analysis. Results: Data from different time points were analysed. The excess of mortality was negatively correlated with the number of new companies created during the pandemic. The increase in COVID-19 cases was associated with the rise of unemployed workers. Neither GDP nor per capita debt was related to any epidemiological indicators considered in the annual analysis. The canonical models of socioeconomic and epidemiological indicators of each of the time periods analysed were statistically significant (0.80-0.91 p < 0.05). Conclusions: In conclusion, during the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain, excess mortality, incidence, lethality, and unemployment constituted the best group of indicators to measure the impact of the pandemic. These indicators, widely available, could provide valuable information to policymakers and higher management in future outbreaks.

Development of forecast models for COVID-19 hospital admissions using anonymized and aggregated mobile network data

Reliable forecast of COVID-19 hospital admissions in near-term horizons can help enable effective resource management which is vital in reducing pressure from healthcare services. The use of mobile network data has come to attention in response to COVID-19 pandemic leveraged on their ability in capturing people social behavior. Crucially, we show that there are latent features in irreversibly anonymized and aggregated mobile network data that carry useful information in relation to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus. We describe development of the forecast models using such features for prediction of COVID-19 hospital admissions in near-term horizons (21 days). In a case study, we verified the approach for two hospitals in Sweden, Sahlgrenska University Hospital and Södra Älvsborgs Hospital, working closely with the experts engaged in the hospital resource planning. Importantly, the results of the forecast models were used in year 2021 by logisticians at the hospitals as one of the main inputs for their decisions regarding resource management.

The role of models in the covid-19 pandemic

Mathematical and statistical models have played an important role in the analysis of data from COVID-19. They are important for tracking the progress of the pandemic, for understanding its spread in the population, and perhaps most significantly for forecasting the future course of the pandemic and evaluating potential policy options. This article describes the types of models that were used by research teams in Israel, presents their assumptions and basic elements, and illustrates how they were used, and how they influenced decisions. The article grew out of a "modelists' dialog" organized by the Israel National Institute for Health Policy Research with participation from some of the leaders in the local modeling effort.

Real-Time Analysis of Predictors of COVID-19 Infection Spread in Countries in the European Union Through a New Tool

Objectives: Real-time data analysis during a pandemic is crucial. This paper aims to introduce a novel interactive tool called Covid-Predictor-Tracker using several sources of COVID-19 data, which allows examining developments over time and across countries. Exemplified here by investigating relative effects of vaccination to non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 spread.

Methods: We combine >100 indicators from the Global COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey, Johns Hopkins University, Our World in Data, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, National Centers for Environmental Information, and Eurostat using random forests, hierarchical clustering, and rank correlation to predict COVID-19 cases.

Results: Between 2/2020 and 1/2022, we found among the non-pharmaceutical interventions “mask usage” to have strong effects after the percentage of people vaccinated at least once, followed by country-specific measures such as lock-downs. Countries with similar characteristics share ranks of infection predictors. Gender and age distribution, healthcare expenditures and cultural participation interact with restriction measures.

Conclusion: Including time-aware machine learning models in COVID-19 infection dashboards allows to disentangle and rank predictors of COVID-19 cases per country to support policy evaluation. Our open-source tool can be updated daily with continuous data streams, and expanded as the pandemic evolves.

Assessing COVID-19 vaccination strategies in varied demographics using an individual-based model

Background

New variants of SARS-CoV-2 are constantly discovered. Administration of COVID-19 vaccines and booster doses, combined with the application of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), is often used to prevent outbreaks of emerging variants. Such outbreak dynamics are further complicated by the population's behavior and demographic composition. Hence, realistic simulations are needed to estimate the efficiency of proposed vaccination strategies in conjunction with NPIs.

Methods

We developed an individual-based model of COVID-19 dynamics that considers age-dependent parameters such as contact matrices, probabilities of symptomatic and severe disease, and households' age distribution. As a case study, we simulate outbreak dynamics under the demographic compositions of two Israeli cities with different household sizes and age distributions. We compare two vaccination strategies: vaccinate individuals in a currently prioritized age group, or dynamically prioritize neighborhoods with a high estimated reproductive number. Total infections and hospitalizations are used to compare the efficiency of the vaccination strategies under the two demographic structures, in conjunction with different NPIs.

Results

We demonstrate the effectiveness of vaccination strategies targeting highly infected localities and of NPIs actively detecting asymptomatic infections. We further show that different optimal vaccination strategies exist for each sub-population's demographic composition and that their application is superior to a uniformly applied strategy.

Conclusion

Our study emphasizes the importance of tailoring vaccination strategies to subpopulations' infection rates and to the unique characteristics of their demographics (e.g., household size and age distributions). The presented simulation framework and findings can help better design future responses against the following emerging variants.

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy among Israeli adults before and after vaccines' availability: A cross-sectional national survey

Vaccine hesitancy (VH) is a major health threat to the efforts to tackle COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. This study’s objectives were to assess COVID-19 VH before and after vaccines' availability and to analyze the associations between COVID-19 VH and participants’ characteristics.

A national cross-sectional telephone interview survey among Israeli adults aged 21 and older was conducted from September 2020 through May 2021. Attitudes towards COVID-19 vaccines were assessed pre/post vaccines' availability. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify associations between demographic and health-related characteristics and COVID-19 VH.

Most study participants (72.0 % of 2,998) were willing to be vaccinated against COVID-19 across the survey period. The COVID-19 VH declined significantly from 45.6 % pre-vaccine availability to 16.3 % post-vaccine availability (P < 0.001). The multivariable analysis demonstrated that post-vaccine availability, COVID-19 VH was associated with younger age, Arab ethnicity, higher level of religiosity, lower education, past diagnosis of COVID-19, and influenza VH. The main reasons for VH after the vaccine availability included insufficient data on the vaccine (37.4 %) and fear of the vaccine's side effects (33.8 %).

Despite the significant decrease in COVID-19 VH following vaccine availability, 16.3% of the population still refuses to get vaccinated. As Israel may face additional waves of the COVID-19 pandemic and booster vaccinations, multimedia vaccine promotions targeting the above-mentioned hesitant populations and their reasons for VH are urgently needed.

Co-existence and co-infection of influenza A viruses and coronaviruses: Public health challenges

Since the 20th century, humans have lived through five pandemics caused by influenza A viruses (IAVs) (H1N1/1918, H2N2/1957, H3N2/1968, and H1N1/2009) and the coronavirus (CoV) severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). IAVs and CoVs both have broad host ranges and share multiple hosts. Virus co-circulation and even co-infections facilitate genetic reassortment among IAVs and recombination among CoVs, further altering virus evolution dynamics and generating novel variants with increased cross-species transmission risk. Moreover, SARS-CoV-2 may maintain long-term circulation in humans as seasonal IAVs. Co-existence and co-infection of both viruses in humans could alter disease transmission patterns and aggravate disease burden. Herein, we demonstrate how virus-host ecology correlates with the co-existence and co-infection of IAVs and/or CoVs, further affecting virus evolution and disease dynamics and burden, calling for active virus surveillance and countermeasures for future public health challenges.

A machine learning algorithm to analyse the effects of vaccination on COVID-19 mortality

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), with new variants, continues to be a constant pandemic threat that is generating socio-economic and health issues in manifold countries. The principal goal of this study is to develop a machine learning experiment to assess the effects of vaccination on the fatality rate of the COVID-19 pandemic. Data from 192 countries are analysed to explain the phenomena under study. This new algorithm selected two targets: the number of deaths and the fatality rate. Results suggest that, based on the respective vaccination plan, the turnout in the participation in the vaccination campaign, and the doses administered, countries under study suddenly have a reduction in the fatality rate of COVID-19 precisely at the point where the cut effect is generated in the neural network. This result is significant for the international scientific community. It would demonstrate the effective impact of the vaccination campaign on the fatality rate of COVID-19, whatever the country considered. In fact, once the vaccination has started (for vaccines that require a booster, we refer to at least the first dose), the antibody response of people seems to prevent the probability of death related to COVID-19. In short, at a certain point, the fatality rate collapses with increasing doses administered. All these results here can help decisions of policymakers to prepare optimal strategies, based on effective vaccination plans, to lessen the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis in socioeconomic and health systems.

COVID-19 and vaccination: myths vs science

INTRODUCTION

Several vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been developed since the inception of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in December 2019, at unprecedented speed. However, these rapidly developed vaccines raised many questions related to the efficacy and safety of vaccines in different communities across the globe. Various hypotheses regarding COVID-19 and its vaccines were generated, and many of them have also been answered with scientific evidence. Still, there are many myths/misinformation related to COVID-19 and its vaccines, which create hesitancy for COVID-19 vaccination, and must be addressed critically to achieve success in the battle against the pandemic.

AREA COVERED

The development of anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccines against COVID-19, their safety and efficacy, and myths/misinformation relating to COVID-19 and vaccines are presented.

EXPERT OPINION

In this pandemic we have seen a global collaborative effort of researchers, governments, and industry, supported by billions of dollars in funding, have allowed the development of vaccines far more quickly than in the past. Vaccines go through rigorous testing, analysis, and evaluations in clinical settings prior to their approval, even if they are approved for emergency use. Despite the myths, vaccination represents an important strategy to get back to normality.

SARS-CoV-2 and Immunity: Natural Infection Compared with Vaccination

Recently, the protective and/or pathological role of virus-specific T cells in SARS-CoV-2 infection has been the focus of many studies. We investigated the anti-spike IgG levels and SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells in 125 donors (90 vaccinated with four different vaccine platforms, 16 individuals with a previous natural infection, and 19 not vaccinated donors who did not report previous SARS-CoV-2 infections). Our data show that anti-spike IgG titers were similar between naturally infected subjects and those vaccinated with adenoviral vector vaccines. Of note, all immunized donors produced memory CD4⁺ and/or CD8⁺ T cells. A sustained polyfunctionality of SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells in all immunized donors was also demonstrated. Altogether, our data suggest that the natural infection produces an overall response like that induced by vaccination. Therefore, this detailed immunological evaluation may be relevant for other vaccine efforts especially for the monitoring of novel vaccines effective against emerging virus variants.

The durability of natural infection and vaccine-induced immunity against future infection by SARS-CoV-2

The durability of vaccine-mediated immunity to SARS-CoV-2, the durations to breakthrough infection, and the optimal timings of booster vaccination are crucial knowledge for pandemic response. Here, we applied comparative evolutionary analyses to estimate the durability of immunity and the likelihood of breakthrough infections over time following vaccination by BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), mRNA-1273 (Moderna), ChAdOx1 (Oxford-AstraZeneca), and Ad26.COV2.S (Johnson & Johnson/Janssen). We evaluated anti-Spike (S) immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody levels elicited by each vaccine relative to natural infection. We estimated typical trajectories of waning and corresponding infection probabilities, providing the distribution of times to breakthrough infection for each vaccine under endemic conditions. Peak antibody levels elicited by messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines mRNA-1273 and BNT1262b2 exceeded that of natural infection and are expected to typically yield more durable protection against breakthrough infections (median 29.6 mo; 5 to 95% quantiles 10.9 mo to 7.9 y) than natural infection (median 21.5 mo; 5 to 95% quantiles 3.5 mo to 7.1 y). Relative to mRNA-1273 and BNT1262b2, viral vector vaccines ChAdOx1 and Ad26.COV2.S exhibit similar peak anti-S IgG antibody responses to that from natural infection and are projected to yield lower, shorter-term protection against breakthrough infection (median 22.4 mo and 5 to 95% quantiles 4.3 mo to 7.2 y; and median 20.5 mo and 5 to 95% quantiles 2.6 mo to 7.0 y; respectively). These results leverage the tools from evolutionary biology to provide a quantitative basis for otherwise unknown parameters that are fundamental to public health policy decision-making.

Relatively rapid evolution rates of SARS-CoV-2 spike gene at the primary stage of massive vaccination

A series of stringent non-pharmacological and pharmacological interventions were implemented to contain the pandemic but the pandemic continues. Moreover, vaccination breakthrough infection and reinfection in convalescent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases have been reported. Further, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants emerged with mutations in spike (S) gene, the target of most current vaccines. Importantly, the mutations exhibit a trend of immune escape from the vaccination. Herein the scientific question that if the vaccination drives genetic or antigenic drifts of SARS-CoV-2 remains elusive. We performed correlation analyses to uncover the impacts of wide vaccination on epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19. In addition, we investigated the evolutionary dynamics and genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 under immune pressure by utilizing the Bayesian phylodynamic inferences and the lineage entropy calculation respectively. We found that vaccination coverage was negatively related to the infections, severe cases, and deaths of COVID-19 respectively. With the increasing vaccination coverage, the lineage diversity of SARS-CoV-2 dampened, but the rapid mutation rates of the S gene were identified, and the vaccination could be one of the explanations for driving mutations in S gene. Moreover, new epidemics resurged in several countries with high vaccination coverage, questioning their current pandemic control strategies. Hence, integrated vaccination and non-pharmacological interventions are critical to control the pandemic. Furthermore, novel vaccine preparation should enhance its capabilities to curb both disease severity and infection possibility.

Risk of Parkinson Disease Among Adults With vs Without Posttraumatic Stress Disorder

IMPORTANCE

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in elderly men may be associated with increased risk of Parkinson disease (PD); thus, this group of patients needs to be monitored closely for timely, customized treatment.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the risk of PD in patients with PTSD compared with patients without PTSD.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This population-based, retrospective, cohort study used data from Maccabi Health Care Services (MHS), the second largest health plan in Israel, spanning from 2000 to 2019. Participants included MHS members born before 1970 who received a diagnosis of PTSD in 2000 to 2015. Patients with PTSD who had PD before their first diagnosis were excluded. Data analysis was performed from February to June 2022.

EXPOSURES

Incident PTSD was denoted by at least 1 diagnosis (1) given by psychiatrists, psychologists, or neurologists; (2) hospital discharge diagnosis; or (3) registered as a chronic diagnosis (defined as such by the primary care physician). The index date was defined as first diagnosis for the patients with PTSD and for the corresponding patients without PTSD.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

PD incident cases up to 2019 were ascertained by idiopathic PD diagnosis (1) given by a neurologist, (2) extracted from a hospital discharge report, or (3) registered as a chronic diagnosis. Patients with PD-like syndromes documentation after the last mention of PD were excluded.

RESULTS

Of 8342 eligible patients, 8336 (99.9%) were matched to nonexposed patients in a 1:1 ratio by birth year and sex; 4303 patients (51.6%) were male, and the mean (SD) age at index was 55.8 (13.2) years. Patients with PTSD had a 1.48-fold (95% CI, 1.10-1.99) excess risk for PD, compared with patients without PTSD. An elevated risk of PD (hazard ratio, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.16-3.28) was recorded among men receiving a diagnosis of PTSD at age 72 years or older.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

These findings suggest that elderly men who receive a diagnosis of PTSD are at an increased risk of PD. Further studies are needed to corroborate these findings and to further assess the association of stress with PD risk.

Seroprevalence in health care workers during the later phase of the second wave: Results of three hospitals in Serbia, prior to vaccine administration

BACKGROUND

Since the COVID-19 pandemic has started, Serbia has faced problems in implementing proper public health measures in the population, including non-pharmaceutical interventions, as well as protecting health care workers (HCWs) from disease, like all other countries. This study aimed to estimate COVID-19 seroprevalence and evaluate the risk perception of COVID-19 among HCWs in three different hospitals in Belgrade, Serbia: non-COVID hospital, Emergency Center (EC), and dedicated COVID hospital.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted in three hospitals during the second wave of the outbreak in Serbia, from June to early October. All staff in these hospitals were invited to voluntarily participate in blood sampling for IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 and questionnaire testing. The questionnaire included socio-demographic characteristics, known exposure to COVID-19 positive persons, previous signs and symptoms related to COVID-19 infection since the outbreak had started in our country, and SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibody among 1580 HCWs was 18.3 % [95 % CI 16.4-20.3 %]. Significantly higher prevalence of HCWs with positive results for the serum IgG antibody test was observed in COVID hospital (28.6 %, 95 %CI: 24.0-33.6 %) vs. prevalence in the EC (12.6 %, 95 %CI: 10.1-15.4 %), and in the non-COVID hospital (18.3 %, 95 %CI: 15.2-26.7 %). The prevalence adjusted for declared test sensitivity and specificity would be 16.8 %; that is 27.4 % in COVID-19 hospital, 10.9 % in EC, and 16.8 % in non-COVID hospital. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, the independent predictors for seropositivity were working in COVID-hospital, the profession of physician, and the presence of the following symptoms: fever, shortness of breath, and anosmia/ageusia.

CONCLUSIONS

We found an overall seropositivity rate of 18.3 % and 16.0 % of the adjusted rate that is higher than seroprevalence obtained in similar studies conducted before vaccinations started. The possibility that patients in non-COVID dedicated hospitals might also be infectious, although PCR tested, imposes the need for the use of personal protective equipment also in non-COVID medical institutions.

Role of literacy, fear and hesitancy on acceptance of COVID-19 vaccine among village health volunteers in Thailand

BACKGROUND

The roles of literacy, fear and hesitancy were investigated for acceptance of COVID-19 vaccine (AV) types among village health volunteers (VHVs) in Thailand.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted using an unidentified online questionnaire to assess literacy, fear and hesitancy of COVID-19 vaccine acceptance among Thai VHVs between 1 and 15 October 2021. The questionnaire was developed based on the HLVa-IT (Health Literacy Vaccinale degli adulti in Italiano) for vaccine literacy (VL), using an adult Vaccine Hesitancy Scale (aVHS) for COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy (VH) and Fear of COVID-19 scale (FCoV-19S) for the distress of COVID-19 vaccine. The effects of VL, VH and vaccine fear (VF) on AV were estimated using multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

A total of 5,312 VHVs completed the questionnaire. After adjustment with variables in the multivariable analysis, the VL score was insignificantly associated with increased vaccination (aOR = 1.002; (95%CI: 0.994-1.01)), while VF and VH significantly decreased the chance of vaccination, aOR = 0.966 (95%CI: 0.953-0.978) and aOR = 0.969; (95%CI: 0.960-0.979), respectively and VF and VH were negatively associated with AV for all types of vaccine preference, with VL showing a reverse relationship only for mRNA-based vaccines.

CONCLUSION

VL may not increase AV among VHVs. To increase attitudes toward receiving COVID-19 vaccination in Thailand, the government and health-related organizations should instigate policies to significantly reduce VF and VH among Thai VHVs.

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant escapes neutralizing antibodies and T cell responses more efficiently than other variants in mild COVID-19 convalescents

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) convalescents living in regions with low vaccination rates rely on post-infection immunity for protection against re-infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We evaluate humoral and T cell immunity against five variants of concern (VOCs) in mild-COVID-19 convalescents at 12 months after infection with ancestral virus. In this cohort, ancestral, receptor-binding domain (RBD)-specific antibody and circulating memory B cell levels are conserved in most individuals, and yet serum neutralization against live B.1.1.529 (Omicron) is completely abrogated and significantly reduced for other VOCs. Likewise, ancestral SARS-CoV-2-specific memory T cell frequencies are maintained in >50% of convalescents, but the cytokine response in these cells to mutated spike epitopes corresponding to B.1.1.529 and B.1.351 (Beta) VOCs were impaired. These results indicate that increased antigen variability in VOCs impairs humoral and spike-specific T cell immunity post-infection, strongly suggesting that COVID-19 convalescents are vulnerable and at risk of re-infection with VOCs, thus stressing the importance of vaccination programs.

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Most mild COVID-19 convalescents maintain immunity at 12 months after disease onset

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B.1.1.529 escapes antibodies in convalescents infected with ancestral SARS-CoV-2

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SARS-CoV-2 VOCs can partially avoid recognition by antigen-specific T cells

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Antigenic drift in SARS-CoV-2 VOCs significantly challenges convalescent immunity