Modelling West Nile virus transmission risk in Europe: effect of temperature and mosquito biotypes on the basic reproduction number

Impact of climate change on the global circulation of West Nile virus and adaptation responses: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

West Nile virus (WNV), the most widely distributed flavivirus causing encephalitis globally, is a vector-borne pathogen of global importance. The changing climate is poised to reshape the landscape of various infectious diseases, particularly vector-borne ones like WNV. Understanding the anticipated geographical and range shifts in disease transmission due to climate change, alongside effective adaptation strategies, is critical for mitigating future public health impacts. This scoping review aims to consolidate evidence on the impact of climate change on WNV and to identify a spectrum of applicable adaptation strategies.

MAIN BODY

We systematically analyzed research articles from PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and EBSCOhost. Our criteria included English-language research articles published between 2007 and 2023, focusing on the impacts of climate change on WNV and related adaptation strategies. We extracted data concerning study objectives, populations, geographical focus, and specific findings. Literature was categorized into two primary themes: 1) climate-WNV associations, and 2) climate change impacts on WNV transmission, providing a clear understanding. Out of 2168 articles reviewed, 120 met our criteria. Most evidence originated from North America (59.2%) and Europe (28.3%), with a primary focus on human cases (31.7%). Studies on climate-WNV correlations (n = 83) highlighted temperature (67.5%) as a pivotal climate factor. In the analysis of climate change impacts on WNV (n = 37), most evidence suggested that climate change may affect the transmission and distribution of WNV, with the extent of the impact depending on local and regional conditions. Although few studies directly addressed the implementation of adaptation strategies for climate-induced disease transmission, the proposed strategies (n = 49) fell into six categories: 1) surveillance and monitoring (38.8%), 2) predictive modeling (18.4%), 3) cross-disciplinary collaboration (16.3%), 4) environmental management (12.2%), 5) public education (8.2%), and 6) health system readiness (6.1%). Additionally, we developed an accessible online platform to summarize the evidence on climate change impacts on WNV transmission ( https://2xzl2o-neaop.shinyapps.io/WNVScopingReview/ ).

CONCLUSIONS

This review reveals that climate change may affect the transmission and distribution of WNV, but the literature reflects only a small share of the global WNV dynamics. There is an urgent need for adaptive responses to anticipate and respond to the climate-driven spread of WNV. Nevertheless, studies focusing on these adaptation responses are sparse compared to those examining the impacts of climate change. Further research on the impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies for vector-borne diseases, along with more comprehensive evidence synthesis, is needed to inform effective policy responses tailored to local contexts.

The effect of temperature on the boundary conditions of West Nile virus circulation in Europe

West Nile virus (WNV) is a vector-borne flavivirus that causes an increasing number of human and equine West Nile fever cases in Europe. While the virus has been present in the Mediterranean basin and the Balkans since the 1960s, recent years have witnessed its northward expansion, with the first human cases reported in Germany in 2018 and the Netherlands in 2020. WNV transmission and amplification within mosquitoes are temperature-dependent. This study applies a mathematical modelling approach to assess the conditions under which WNV circulation occurs based on the proportion of mosquito bites on WNV-competent birds (dilution), vector-host ratios, mosquito season length and the observed daily temperature data. We modelled five distinct European regions where previous WNV circulation has been observed within the Netherlands, Germany, Spain, Italy, and Greece. We observed that the number of days in which the basic reproduction number (R0) is above one, increased over the last 40 years in all five regions. In the Netherlands, the number of days in which the R0 is above one, is 70% lower than in Spain. The temperature in Greece, Spain and Italy allowed for circulation under low vector-host ratios, and at a high dilution. On the other hand in the Netherlands and Germany, given the observed daily temperature, the thresholds for circulation requires a lower dilution and higher vector-host ratios. For the Netherlands, a short window of introductions between late May and mid-June would result in detectable outbreaks. Our findings revealed that the temperate maritime climate of the Netherlands allows WNV circulation primarily during warmer summers, and only under high vector-host ratios. This research contributes valuable insights into the dynamic relationship between temperature, vector properties, and WNV transmission, offering guidance for proactive strategies in addressing this emerging health threat in Europe.

Mechanistic models for West Nile virus transmission: a systematic review of features, aims and parametrization

Mathematical models within the Ross-Macdonald framework increasingly play a role in our understanding of vector-borne disease dynamics and as tools for assessing scenarios to respond to emerging threats. These threats are typically characterized by a high degree of heterogeneity, introducing a range of possible complexities in models and challenges to maintain the link with empirical evidence. We systematically identified and analysed a total of 77 published papers presenting compartmental West Nile virus (WNV) models that use parameter values derived from empirical studies. Using a set of 15 criteria, we measured the dissimilarity compared with the Ross-Macdonald framework. We also retrieved the purpose and type of models and traced the empirical sources of their parameters. Our review highlights the increasing refinements in WNV models. Models for prediction included the highest number of refinements. We found uneven distributions of refinements and of evidence for parameter values. We identified several challenges in parametrizing such increasingly complex models. For parameters common to most models, we also synthesize the empirical evidence for their values and ranges. The study highlights the potential to improve the quality of WNV models and their applicability for policy by establishing closer collaboration between mathematical modelling and empirical work.

Modeling West Nile Virus transmission in birds and humans: Advantages of using a cellular automata approach

In Canada, the periodic circulation of West Nile Virus (WNV) is difficult to predict and, beyond climatic factors, appears to be related to the migratory movements of infected birds from the southern United States. This hypothesis has not yet been explored in a spatially distributed model. The main objective of this work was to develop a spatially explicit dynamic model for the transmission of WNV in Canada, that allows us to explore non-climate related hypotheses associated with WNV transmission. A Cellular Automata (CA) approach for multiple hosts (birds and humans) is used for a test region in eastern Ontario, Canada. The tool is designed to explore the role of host and vector spatial heterogeneity, host migration, and vector feeding preferences. We developed a spatialized compartmental SEIRDS-SEI model for WNV transmission with a study region divided into 4 k m 2 rectangular cells. We used 2010-2021 bird data from the eBird project and 2010-2019 mosquito data collected by Ontario Public Health to mimic bird and mosquito seasonal variation. We considered heterogeneous bird densities (high and low suitability areas) and homogeneous mosquito and human densities. In high suitability areas for birds, we identified 5 entry points for WNV-infected birds. We compared our simulations with pools of WNV-infected field collected mosquitoes. Simulations and sensitivity analyses were performed using MATLAB software. The results showed good correspondence between simulated and observed epidemics, supporting the validity of our model assumptions and calibration. Sensitivity analysis showed that a 5% increase or decrease in each parameter of our model except for the biting rate of bird by mosquito (c ( B , M ) ) and mosquito natural mortality rate (d M ), had a very limited effect on the total number of cases (newly infected birds and humans), prevalence peak, or date of occurrence. We demonstrate the utility of the CA approach for studying WNV transmission in a heterogeneous landscape with multiple hosts.

Navigating Evolving Challenges in Blood Safety

Blood safety remains a paramount public health concern, and health authorities maintain a high level of vigilance to prevent transfusion-transmitted infections (TTIs) [...].

Mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) Fauna of a Zoological Park in an Urban Setting: Analysis of Culex pipiens s.l. and Their Biotypes

Mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs) are important emerging diseases that affect humans and animals. Zoological parks can work as early warning systems for the occurrence of MBDs. In this study, we characterized the mosquito fauna captured inside Lisbon Zoo from May 2018 to November 2019. An average of 2.4 mosquitos per trap/night were captured. Five mosquito species potentially causing MBDs, including Culex pipiens biotypes, were found in the zoo. The sympatric occurrence of Culex pipiens biotypes represents a risk factor for the epizootic transmission of West Nile virus and Usutu virus. The mosquito occurrence followed the expected seasonality, with the maximum densities during summer months. However, mosquito activity was detected in winter months in low numbers. The minimum temperature and the relative humidity (RH) on the day of capture showed a positive effect on Culex pipiens abundance. Contrary, the RH the week before capture and the average precipitation the week of capture had a negative effect. No invasive species were identified, nor have flaviviruses been detected in the mosquitoes. The implementation of biosecurity measures regarding the hygiene of the premises and the strict control of all the animals entering the zoo can justify the low prevalence of mosquitoes and the absence of flavivirus-infected mosquitoes.

Temperature dependence of mosquitoes: comparing mechanistic and machine learning approaches

Mosquito vectors of pathogens (e.g., Aedes , Anopheles , and Culex spp. which transmit dengue, Zika, chikungunya, West Nile, malaria, and others) are of increasing concern for global public health. These vectors are geographically shifting under climate and other anthropogenic changes. As small-bodied ectotherms, mosquitoes are strongly affected by temperature, which causes unimodal responses in mosquito life history traits (e.g., biting rate, adult mortality rate, mosquito development rate, and probability of egg-to-adult survival) that exhibit upper and lower thermal limits and intermediate thermal optima in laboratory studies. However, it remains unknown how mosquito thermal responses measured in laboratory experiments relate to the realized thermal responses of mosquitoes in the field. To address this gap, we leverage thousands of global mosquito occurrences and geospatial satellite data at high spatial resolution to construct machine-learning based species distribution models, from which vector thermal responses are estimated. We apply methods to restrict models to the relevant mosquito activity season and to conduct ecologically-plausible spatial background sampling centered around ecoregions for comparison to mosquito occurrence records. We found that thermal minima estimated from laboratory studies were highly correlated with those from the species distributions (r = 0.90). The thermal optima were less strongly correlated (r = 0.69). For most species, we did not detect thermal maxima from their observed distributions so were unable to compare to laboratory-based estimates. The results suggest that laboratory studies have the potential to be highly transportable to predicting lower thermal limits and thermal optima of mosquitoes in the field. At the same time, lab-based models likely capture physiological limits on mosquito persistence at high temperatures that are not apparent from field-based observational studies but may critically determine mosquito responses to climate warming.

Quantifying the invasion risk of West Nile virus: Insights from a multi-vector and multi-host SEIR model

The invasion of vector-borne diseases depends on the type of specific features of the vector and hosts at play. Within the Culex pipiens complex, differences in ecology, biology, and vector competence can influence the risk of West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks. To determine which life-history traits affect WNV invasion into susceptible communities the most, we constructed an epidemiological Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model with three vector (eco)types, Culex pipiens pipiens, Cx. pip. molestus, and their hybrids, and two vertebrate hosts, birds (as amplifying hosts) and humans (as dead-end hosts). We investigated how differences in feeding preferences and transmission rates influenced WNV transmission across different habitats and two seasons (Spring versus Summer), to investigate the impact of increasing mosquitoes on the WNV transmission risk. Our results showed that vector feeding preferences and the transmission rate between mosquitoes and birds were the parameters that most influenced WNV invasion risk. Even though our model did not predict WNV invasion across any of the studied environments, we found that natural habitats displayed the highest susceptibility to WNV invasion. Pipiens (eco)type acted as the primary vector in all habitats. Hybrids, contrary to common opinion, showed minimal involvement in WNV transmission. However, it is important to interpret our study results with caution due to the possibility of idealized spring and summer seasons being reflected in the field-collected data. Our study could be a tool to enhance current vector surveillance and control programs by targeting specific vector types in specific environments, especially in natural habitat, which are most responsive to environmental shifts. The joint approach based on epidemiological modelling based on field collected data can help to reduce wasted time and economic costs while maximizing the efficiency of local public health authorities.

West Nile virus in the Iberian Peninsula: using equine cases to identify high-risk areas for humans

BackgroundWest Nile virus (WNV) is a flavivirus with an enzootic cycle between birds and mosquitoes; humans and horses are incidental dead-end hosts. In 2020, the largest outbreak of West Nile virus infection in the Iberian Peninsula occurred, with 141 clusters in horses and 77 human cases.AimWe analysed which drivers influence spillover from the cycle to humans and equines and identified areas at risk for WNV transmission.MethodsBased on data on WNV cases in horses and humans in 2020 in Portugal and Spain, we developed logistic regression models using environmental and anthropic variables to highlight risk areas. Models were adapted to a high-resolution risk map.ResultsCases of WNV in horses could be used as indicators of viral activity and thus predict cases in humans. The risk map of horses was able to define high-risk areas for previous cases in humans and equines in Portugal and Spain, as well as predict human and horse cases in the transmission seasons of 2021 and 2022. We found that the spatial patterns of the favourable areas for outbreaks correspond to the main hydrographic basins of the Iberian Peninsula, jointly affecting Portugal and Spain.ConclusionA risk map highlighting the risk areas for potential future cases could be cost-effective as a means of promoting preventive measures to decrease incidence of WNV infection in Europe, based on a One Health surveillance approach.

Scoping review of Culex mosquito life history trait heterogeneity in response to temperature

BACKGROUND

Mosquitoes in the genus Culex are primary vectors in the US for West Nile virus (WNV) and other arboviruses. Climatic drivers such as temperature have differential effects on species-specific changes in mosquito range, distribution, and abundance, posing challenges for population modeling, disease forecasting, and subsequent public health decisions. Understanding these differences in underlying biological dynamics is crucial in the face of climate change.

METHODS

We collected empirical data on thermal response for immature development rate, egg viability, oviposition, survival to adulthood, and adult lifespan for Culex pipiens, Cx. quinquefasciatus, Cx. tarsalis, and Cx. restuans from existing literature according to the PRISMA scoping review guidelines.

RESULTS

We observed linear relationships with temperature for development rate and lifespan, and nonlinear relationships for survival and egg viability, with underlying variation between species. Optimal ranges and critical minima and maxima also appeared varied. To illustrate how model output can change with experimental input data from individual Culex species, we applied a modified equation for temperature-dependent mosquito type reproduction number for endemic spread of WNV among mosquitoes and observed different effects.

CONCLUSIONS

Current models often input theoretical parameters estimated from a single vector species; we show the need to implement the real-world heterogeneity in thermal response between species and present a useful data resource for researchers working toward that goal.

Entomological Surveillance Activities in Regions in Greece: Data on Mosquito Species Abundance and West Nile Virus Detection in Culex pipiens Pools (2019-2020)

Human cases of West Nile virus (WNV) infections have been recorded in Greece since 2010, with seasonal outbreaks (summer-autumn) on an almost annual basis, caused mainly by the WNV lineage 2 strain (Nea Santa-Greece-2010). National Public Health Organization (NPHO) in Greece is annually implementing enhanced surveillance of human WNV infection, in order to promptly identify human cases of WNV infection and monitor distribution in terms of time and place. Entomological surveillance activities were carried out on a national basis in 2019 and 2020, under NPHO coordination and the collaboration of several private subcontractors, along with the Unit of Medical Entomology, Laboratory for Surveillance of Infectious Diseases (LSID). The aim was to monitor mosquito species composition, abundance, and WNV circulation in mosquito pools of Culex pipiens s.l. species. Adult mosquito traps were placed in selected sites; collected samples were morphologically characterized and pooled by date of collection, location, and species types. Female Culex pipiens s.l. pools were tested for WNV and WNV infection rates (MIR and MLE) were estimated. Highest mean number of female Culex pipiens s.l. species was recorded in Central Macedonia both for 2019 and 2020. Six hundred and fifty-nine mosquito pools (147 in 2019 and 512 in 2020) of female Culex pipiens s.l. were examined for WNV presence. The highest MLE was detected in Western Macedonia in 2019 and in Thessaly in 2020. Here, we present data on the mosquito species composition in the studied areas and WNV detection in mosquitoes from areas in Greece where the specific national mosquito surveillance program was implemented, for two years, 2019 and 2020.

Exploring the influence of competition on arbovirus invasion risk in communities

Arbovirus outbreaks in communities are affected by how vectors, hosts and non-competent species interact. In this study, we investigate how ecological interactions between species and epidemiological processes influence the invasion potential of a vector-borne disease. We use an eco-epidemiological model to explore the basic reproduction number R0 for a range of interaction strengths in key processes, using West Nile virus infection to parameterize the model. We focus our analysis on intra and interspecific competition between vectors and between hosts, as well as competition with non-competent species. We show that such ecological competition has non-linear effects on R0 and can greatly impact invasion risk. The presence of multiple competing vector species results in lower values for R0 while host competition leads to the highest values of risk of disease invasion. These effects can be understood in terms of how the competitive pressures influence the vector-to-host ratio, which has a positive relationship with R0. We also show numerical examples of how vector feeding preferences become more relevant in high competition conditions between hosts. Under certain conditions, non-competent hosts, which can lead to a dilution effect for the pathogen, can have an amplification effect if they compete strongly with the competent hosts, hence facilitating pathogen invasion in the community.

Modelling the temperature suitability for the risk of West Nile Virus establishment in European Culex pipiens populations

Increases in temperature and extreme weather events due to global warming can create an environment that is beneficial to mosquito populations, changing and possibly increasing the suitable geographical range for many vector-borne diseases. West Nile Virus (WNV) is a flavivirus, maintained in a mosquito-avian host cycle that is usually asymptomatic but can cause primarily flu-like symptoms in human and equid accidental hosts. In rare circumstances, serious disease and death are possible outcomes for both humans and horses. The main European vector of WNV is the Culex pipiens mosquito. This study examines the effect of environmental temperature on WNV establishment in Europe via Culex pipiens populations through use of a basic reproduction number ( R 0 ${R_0}$ ) model. A metric of thermal suitability derived from R 0 ${R_0}$ was developed by collating thermal responses of different Culex pipiens traits and combining them through use of a next-generation matrix. WNV establishment was determined to be possible between 14°C and 34.3°C, with the optimal temperature at 23.7°C. The suitability measure was plotted against monthly average temperatures in 2020 and the number of months with high suitability mapped across Europe. The average number of suitable months for each year from 2013 to 2019 was also calculated and validated with reported equine West Nile fever cases from 2013 to 2019. The widespread thermal suitability for WNV establishment highlights the importance of European surveillance for this disease and the need for increased research into mosquito and bird distribution.

Artificial intelligence to predict West Nile virus outbreaks with eco-climatic drivers

Background

In Europe, the frequency, intensity, and geographic range of West Nile virus (WNV)-outbreaks have increased over the past decade, with a 7.2-fold increase in 2018 compared to 2017, and a markedly expanded geographic area compared to 2010. The reasons for this increase and range expansion remain largely unknown due to the complexity of the transmission pathways and underlying disease drivers. In a first, we use advanced artificial intelligence to disentangle the contribution of eco-climatic drivers to WNV-outbreaks across Europe using decade-long (2010-2019) data at high spatial resolution.

Methods

We use a high-performance machine learning classifier, XGBoost (eXtreme gradient boosting) combined with state-of-the-art XAI (eXplainable artificial intelligence) methodology to describe the predictive ability and contribution of different drivers of the emergence and transmission of WNV-outbreaks in Europe, respectively.

Findings

Our model, trained on 2010-2017 data achieved an AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) score of 0.97 and 0.93 when tested with 2018 and 2019 data, respectively, showing a high discriminatory power to classify a WNV-endemic area. Overall, positive summer/spring temperatures anomalies, lower water availability index (NDWI), and drier winter conditions were found to be the main determinants of WNV-outbreaks across Europe. The climate trends of the preceding year in combination with eco-climatic predictors of the first half of the year provided a robust predictive ability of the entire transmission season ahead of time. For the extraordinary 2018 outbreak year, relatively higher spring temperatures and the abundance of Culex mosquitoes were the strongest predictors, in addition to past climatic trends.

Interpretation

Our AI-based framework can be deployed to trigger rapid and timely alerts for active surveillance and vector control measures in order to intercept an imminent WNV-outbreak in Europe.

Funding

The work was partially funded by the Swedish Research Council FORMAS for the project ARBOPREVENT (grant agreement 2018-05973).

Assessing the introduction risk of vector-borne animal diseases for the Netherlands using MINTRISK: A Model for INTegrated RISK assessment

To evaluate and compare the risk of emerging vector-borne diseases (VBDs), a Model for INTegrated RISK assessment, MINTRISK, was developed to assess the introduction risk of VBDs for new regions in an objective, transparent and repeatable manner. MINTRISK is a web-based calculation tool, that provides semi-quantitative risk scores that can be used for prioritization purposes. Input into MINTRISK is entered by answering questions regarding entry, transmission, establishment, spread, persistence and impact of a selected VBD. Answers can be chosen from qualitative answer categories with accompanying quantitative explanation to ensure consistent answering. The quantitative information is subsequently used as input for the model calculations to estimate the risk for each individual step in the model and for the summarizing output values (rate of introduction; epidemic size; overall risk). The risk assessor can indicate his uncertainty on each answer, and this is accounted for by Monte Carlo simulation. MINTRISK was used to assess the risk of four VBDs (African horse sickness, epizootic haemorrhagic disease, Rift Valley fever, and West Nile fever) for the Netherlands with the aim to prioritise these diseases for preparedness. Results indicated that the overall risk estimate was very high for all evaluated diseases but epizootic haemorrhagic disease. Uncertainty intervals were, however, wide limiting the options for ranking of the diseases. Risk profiles of the VBDs differed. Whereas all diseases were estimated to have a very high economic impact once introduced, the estimated introduction rates differed from low for Rift Valley fever and epizootic haemorrhagic disease to moderate for African horse sickness and very high for West Nile fever. Entry of infected mosquitoes on board of aircraft was deemed the most likely route of introduction for West Nile fever into the Netherlands, followed by entry of infected migratory birds.

West Nile virus is predicted to be more geographically widespread in New York State and Connecticut under future climate change

The effects of climate change on infectious diseases are a topic of considerable interest and discussion. We studied West Nile virus (WNV) in New York (NY) and Connecticut (CT) using a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model climate change scenario, which allows us to examine the effects of climate change and variability on WNV risk at county level. We chose WNV because it is well studied, has caused over 50,000 reported human cases, and over 2200 deaths in the United States. The ecological impacts have been substantial (e.g., millions of avian deaths), and economic impacts include livestock deaths, morbidity, and healthcare-related expenses. We trained two Random Forest models with observational climate data and human cases to predict future levels of WNV based on future weather conditions. The Regional Model used present-day data from NY and CT, whereas the Analog Model was fit for states most closely matching the predicted future conditions in the region. Separately, we predicted changes to mosquito-based WNV risk using a trait-based thermal biology approach (Mosquito Model). The WRF model produced control simulations (present day) and pseudo-global warming simulations (future). The Regional and Analog Models predicted an overall increase in human cases of WNV under future warming. However, the Analog Model did not predict as strong of an increase in the number of human cases as the Regional Model, and predicted a decrease in cases in some counties that currently experience high numbers of WNV cases. The Mosquito Model also predicted a decrease in risk in current high-risk areas, with an overall reduction in the population-weighted relative risk (but an increase in area-weighted risk). The Mosquito Model supports the Analog Model as making more realistic predictions than the Regional Model. All three models predicted a geographic increase in WNV cases across NY and CT.

A climate-dependent spatial epidemiological model for the transmission risk of West Nile virus at local scale

In this study, initial elements of a modelling framework aimed to become a spatial forecasting model for the transmission risk of West Nile virus (WNV) are presented. The model describes the dynamics of a WNV epidemic in population health states of mosquitoes, birds and humans and was applied to the case of Greece for the period 2010–2019. Calibration was performed with the available epidemiological data from the Hellenic Centre for Disease Control and Prevention and the environmental data from the European Union's earth observation program, Copernicus. Numerical results of the model for each municipality were evaluated against observations. Specifically, the occurrence of WNV, the number of infected humans and the week of incidence predicted from the model were compared to the corresponding numbers from observations. The results suggest that dynamic downscaling of a climate-dependent epidemiological model is feasible down-to roughly 80km². This below nomenclature of territorial units for statistics (NUTS) 3 level represents the municipalities being the lowest level of administrative units, able to cope with WNV and take actions. The average detection probability in hindcast mode was 72%, improving strongly as the number of infected humans increased. Using the developed model, we were also able to show the fundamental importance of the May temperatures in shaping the WNV dynamics. The modeling framework couples epidemiological and environmental dynamical variables with surveillance data producing risk maps downscaled at a local level. The approach can be expanded to provide targeted early warning probabilistic forecasts that can be used to inform public health policy decision making.

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Downscaling of a climate-dependent epidemiological model feasible to roughly 80 km².

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The model demonstrates competence in reproducing WNV event occurrence spatially at the municipality scale.

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The average detection probability is 72%, improving with increasing human infections.

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The hardest to model WNV events occurred at municipalities and years with only one human infection annually.

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Temperatures in May are found most critical in shaping the WNV dynamics.

Experimental Evolution of West Nile Virus at Higher Temperatures Facilitates Broad Adaptation and Increased Genetic Diversity

West Nile virus (WNV, Flaviviridae, Flavivirus) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus introduced to North America in 1999. Since 1999, the Earth's average temperature has increased by 0.6 °C. Mosquitoes are ectothermic organisms, reliant on environmental heat sources. Temperature impacts vector-virus interactions which directly influence arbovirus transmission. RNA viral replication is highly error-prone and increasing temperature could further increase replication rates, mutation frequencies, and evolutionary rates. The impact of temperature on arbovirus evolutionary trajectories and fitness landscapes has yet to be sufficiently studied. To investigate how temperature impacts the rate and extent of WNV evolution in mosquito cells, WNV was experimentally passaged 12 times in Culex tarsalis cells, at 25 °C and 30 °C. Full-genome deep sequencing was used to compare genetic signatures during passage, and replicative fitness was evaluated before and after passage at each temperature. Our results suggest adaptive potential at both temperatures, with unique temperature-dependent and lineage-specific genetic signatures. Further, higher temperature passage was associated with significantly increased replicative fitness at both temperatures and increases in nonsynonymous mutations. Together, these data indicate that if similar selective pressures exist in natural systems, increases in temperature could accelerate emergence of high-fitness strains with greater phenotypic plasticity.

A Temperature Conditioned Markov Chain Model for Predicting the Dynamics of Mosquito Vectors of Disease

Understanding and predicting mosquito population dynamics is crucial for gaining insight into the abundance of arthropod disease vectors and for the design of effective vector control strategies. In this work, a climate-conditioned Markov chain (CMC) model was developed and applied for the first time to predict the dynamics of vectors of important medical diseases. Temporal changes in mosquito population profiles were generated to simulate the probabilities of a high population impact. The simulated transition probabilities of the mosquito populations achieved from the trained model are very near to the observed data transitions that have been used to parameterize and validate the model. Thus, the CMC model satisfactorily describes the temporal evolution of the mosquito population process. In general, our numerical results, when temperature is considered as the driver of change, indicate that it is more likely for the population system to move into a state of high population level when the former is a state of a lower population level than the opposite. Field data on frequencies of successive mosquito population levels, which were not used for the data inferred MC modeling, were assembled to obtain an empirical intensity transition matrix and the frequencies observed. Our findings match to a certain degree the empirical results in which the probabilities follow analogous patterns while no significant differences were observed between the transition matrices of the CMC model and the validation data (ChiSq = 14.58013, df = 24, p = 0.9324451). The proposed modeling approach is a valuable eco-epidemiological study. Moreover, compared to traditional Markov chains, the benefit of the current CMC model is that it takes into account the stochastic conditional properties of ecological-related climate variables. The current modeling approach could save costs and time in establishing vector eradication programs and mosquito surveillance programs.

Reservoir hosts experiencing food stress alter transmission dynamics for a zoonotic pathogen

Food limitation is a universal stressor for wildlife populations and is increasingly exacerbated by human activities. Anthropogenic environmental change can significantly alter the availability and quality of food resources for reservoir hosts and impact host-pathogen interactions in the wild. The state of the host's nutritional reserves at the time of infection is a key factor influencing infection outcomes by altering host resistance. Combining experimental and model-based approaches, we investigate how an environmental stressor affects host resistance to West Nile virus (WNV). Using American robins (Turdus migratorius), a species considered a superspreader of WNV, we tested the effect of acute food deprivation immediately prior to infection on host viraemia. Here, we show that robins food deprived for 48 h prior to infection, developed higher virus titres and were infectious longer than robins fed normally. To gain an understanding about the epidemiological significance of food-stressed hosts, we developed an agent-based model that simulates transmission dynamics of WNV between an avian host and the mosquito vector. When simulating a nutritionally stressed host population, the mosquito infection rate rose significantly, reaching levels that represent an epidemiological risk. An understanding of the infection disease dynamics in wild populations is critical to predict and mitigate zoonotic disease outbreaks.

Emerging Trends in the West Nile Virus Epidemiology in Croatia in the 'One Health' Context, 2011-2020

West Nile virus (WNV) is one of the most widely distributed (re-)emerging arboviruses. In Croatia, acute WNV infections as well as seropositivity were detected in humans, horses, birds and poultry. Although serologic evidence of WNV human infections dates back to the 1970s, no clinical cases were reported until 2012. WNV outbreaks, as well as sporadic infections, were continuously recorded in continental Croatian counties from 2012 to 2018. In addition, acute asymptomatic infections (IgM antibodies) in horses have been regularly notified in continental regions since 2012, while seropositive horses (seroprevalence rates 3.7–21.4%) were detected in both continental and coastal regions. Moreover, WNV seropositivity in poultry (1.8–22.9%) was reported from 2013 to 2020. During the largest WNV outbreak in 2018, WNV RNA was detected for the first time in two dead goshawks (Accipiter gentilis) from the same aviary in North-West Croatia, while WNV antibodies were found in one buzzard (Butteo butteo) from the same region. In addition, WNV RNA was detected in a dead blackbird (Turdus merula) at the Croatian littoral. The phylogenetic analysis of 11 strains detected in urine samples of patients with neuroinvasive disease and 1 strain detected in a goshawk showed circulation of WNV lineage 2. Thus far, WNV has not been detected in mosquitoes in Croatia.

Characterization and Host-Feeding Patterns of Culex pipiens s.l. Taxa in a West Nile Virus-Endemic Area in Southeastern Romania

Culex pipiens sensu lato has been documented as West Nile virus (WNV) vector in southeastern Romania. Bucharest, the densely populated capital city of Romania, and the surrounding Ilfov county are WNV hotspots. In this area, the morphologically indistinguishable biotypes of Cx. pipiens, namely pipiens and molestus, are usually differentiated by their behavioral and physiological traits. Their involvement in WNV transmission, as suggested by entomological investigations, was not previously documented for each biotype. We used a Real-Time PCR assay based on CQ11 microsatellite to identify the Cx. pipiens biotypes and their hybrids collected in various habitats in the Bucharest metropolitan area. A sympatric distribution of both biotypes was observed, with a preference of green areas for pipiens, and human settings and animal farmlands for molestus. In the latter habitats, pipiens and molestus were found in mixed aboveground populations. A low number of hybrids was found suggesting existence of reproductive isolation. In subway tunnels molestus was dominant with a higher number of hybrids recorded than aboveground. Blood-engorged mosquitoes were identified to biotype and the blood meal source identified by DNA barcoding. Overall, Cx. pipiens s.l. fed mainly on birds, commonly on house sparrows, collared doves, and blackbirds, which are potential WNV-amplifying hosts. The preference for avian hosts was expressed strongest by pipiens biotype, while molestus was substantially less specific, feeding on avian and mammal hosts with similar frequency, with humans representing 20% of the hosts. Hybrids had a host choice closer to that of molestus. These findings highlight the role of pipiens biotype as enzootic/epizootic vector, and specifically show molestus as the bridge vector for WNV. The pipiens and molestus biotypes show important differences in habitat preferences, including oviposition; these findings demonstrate that targeted mosquito control to limit WNV transmission may be possible.

A novel approach for predicting risk of vector-borne disease establishment in marginal temperate environments under climate change: West Nile virus in the UK

Vector-borne diseases (VBDs), such as dengue, Zika, West Nile virus (WNV) and tick-borne encephalitis, account for substantial human morbidity worldwide and have expanded their range into temperate regions in recent decades. Climate change has been proposed as a likely driver of past and future expansion, however, the complex ecology of host and vector populations and their interactions with each other, environmental variables and land-use changes makes understanding the likely impacts of climate change on VBDs challenging. We present an environmentally driven, stage-structured, host-vector mathematical modelling framework to address this challenge. We apply our framework to predict the risk of WNV outbreaks in current and future UK climates. WNV is a mosquito-borne arbovirus which has expanded its range in mainland Europe in recent years. We predict that, while risks will remain low in the coming two to three decades, the risk of WNV outbreaks in the UK will increase with projected temperature rises and outbreaks appear plausible in the latter half of this century. This risk will increase substantially if increased temperatures lead to increases in the length of the mosquito biting season or if European strains show higher replication at lower temperatures than North American strains.

Assessment of West Nile Virus Lineage 2 Dynamics in Greece and Future Implications

The emergence of West Nile Virus lineage 2 (WNV-2) has contributed to multiple major human outbreaks in Greece since 2010. Studies to date investigating biological and environmental factors that contribute to West Nile Virus (WNV) transmission have resulted in complex statistical models. We sought to examine open publicly available data to ascertain if a predictive risk assessment could be employed for WNV-2 in Greece. Based on accessible data, factors such as precipitation, temperature, and range of avian host species did not yield conclusive outcomes. However, by measuring the average rate of temperature change leading up to peak caseloads, we found a predictive characteristic to the timing of outbreaks. Detailed evolutionary studies revealed possible multiple introductions of WNV-2 in Europe, and that Greece acts through a source-sink inversion model, thereby allowing continued reseeding of WNV transmission each year by overwintering the Culex pipiens mosquito vector. Greece has proven an excellent model in WNV surveillance and has demonstrated the importance of rapid reporting for proper preparedness and response to vector-borne diseases.

A plant reovirus hijacks endoplasmic reticulum-associated degradation machinery to promote efficient viral transmission by its planthopper vector under high temperature conditions

In the field, many insect-borne crop viral diseases are more suitable for maintenance and spread in hot-temperature areas, but the mechanism remains poorly understood. The epidemic of a planthopper (Sogatella furcifera)-transmitted rice reovirus (southern rice black-streaked dwarf virus, SRBSDV) is geographically restricted to southern China and northern Vietnam with year-round hot temperatures. Here, we reported that two factors of endoplasmic reticulum-associated degradation (ERAD) machinery, the heat shock protein DnaJB11 and ER membrane protein BAP31, were activated by viral infection to mediate the adaptation of S. furcifera to high temperatures. Infection and transmission efficiencies of SRBSDV by S. furcifera increased with the elevated temperatures. We observed that high temperature (35°C) was beneficial for the assembly of virus-containing tubular structures formed by nonstructural protein P7-1 of SRBSDV, which facilitates efficient viral transmission by S. furcifera. Both DnaJB11 and BAP31 competed to directly bind to the tubule protein P7-1 of SRBSDV; however, DnaJB11 promoted whereas BAP31 inhibited P7-1 tubule assembly at the ER membrane. Furthermore, the binding affinity of DnaJB11 with P7-1 was stronger than that of BAP31 with P7-1. We also revealed that BAP31 negatively regulated DnaJB11 expression through their direct interaction. High temperatures could significantly upregulate DnaJB11 expression but inhibit BAP31 expression, thereby strongly facilitating the assembly of abundant P7-1 tubules. Taken together, we showed that a new temperature-dependent protein quality control pathway in the ERAD machinery has evolved for strong activation of DnaJB11 for benefiting P7-1 tubules assembly to support efficient transmission of SRBSDV in high temperatures. We thus deduced that ERAD machinery has been hitchhiked by insect-borne crop viruses to enhance their transmission in tropical climates.

Predicting the spatio-temporal spread of West Nile virus in Europe

West Nile virus is a widely spread arthropod-born virus, which has mosquitoes as vectors and birds as reservoirs. Humans, as dead-end hosts of the virus, may suffer West Nile Fever (WNF), which sometimes leads to death. In Europe, the first large-scale epidemic of WNF occurred in 1996 in Romania. Since then, human cases have increased in the continent, where the highest number of cases occurred in 2018. Using the location of WNF cases in 2017 and favorability models, we developed two risk models, one environmental and the other spatio-environmental, and tested their capacity to predict in 2018: 1) the location of WNF; 2) the intensity of the outbreaks (i.e. the number of confirmed human cases); and 3) the imminence of the cases (i.e. the Julian week in which the first case occurred). We found that climatic variables (the maximum temperature of the warmest month and the annual temperature range), human-related variables (rain-fed agriculture, the density of poultry and horses), and topo-hydrographic variables (the presence of rivers and altitude) were the best environmental predictors of WNF outbreaks in Europe. The spatio-environmental model was the most useful in predicting the location of WNF outbreaks, which suggests that a spatial structure, probably related to bird migration routes, has a role in the geographical pattern of WNF in Europe. Both the intensity of cases and their imminence were best predicted using the environmental model, suggesting that these features of the disease are linked to the environmental characteristics of the areas. We highlight the relevance of river basins in the propagation dynamics of the disease, as outbreaks started in the lower parts of the river basins, from where WNF spread towards the upper parts. Therefore, river basins should be considered as operational geographic units for the public health management of the disease.

Environmental drivers, climate change and emergent diseases transmitted by mosquitoes and their vectors in southern Europe: A systematic review

Mosquito borne diseases are a group of infections that affect humans. Emerging or reemerging diseases are those that (re)occur in regions, groups or hosts that were previously free from these diseases: dengue virus; chikungunya virus; Zika virus; West Nile fever and malaria. In Europe, these infections are mostly imported; however, due to the presence of competent mosquitoes and the number of trips both to and from endemic areas, these pathogens are potentially emergent or re-emergent. Present and future climatic conditions, as well as meteorological, environmental and demographic aspects are risk factors for the distribution of different vectors and/or diseases. This review aimed to identify and analyze the existing literature on the transmission of mosquito borne diseases and those factors potentially affecting their transmission risk of them in six southern European countries with similar environmental conditions: Croatia, France, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain. In addition, we would identify those factors potentially affecting the (re)introduction or spread of mosquito vectors. This task has been undertaken with a focus on the environmental and climatic factors, including the effects of climate change. We undertook a systematic review of the vectors, diseases and their associations with climactic and environmental factors in European countries of the Mediterranean region. We followed the PRISMA guidelines and used explicit and systematic methods to identify, select and critically evaluate the studies which were relevant to the topic. We identified 1302 articles in the first search of the databases. Of those, 160 were selected for full-text review. The final data set included 61 articles published between 2000 and 2017.39.3% of the papers were related with dengue, chikungunya and Zika virus or their vectors. Temperature, precipitation and population density were key factors among others. 32.8% studied West Nile virus and its vectors, being temperature, precipitation and NDVI the most frequently used variables. Malaria have been studied in 23% of the articles, with temperature, precipitation and presence of water indexes as the most used variables. The number of publications focused on mosquito borne diseases is increasing in recent years, reflecting the increased interest in that diseases in southern European countries. Climatic and environmental variables are key factors on mosquitoes' distribution and to show the risk of emergence and/or spread of emergent diseases and to study the spatial changes in that distributions.

Transmission of West Nile and five other temperate mosquito-borne viruses peaks at temperatures between 23°C and 26°C

The temperature-dependence of many important mosquito-borne diseases has never been quantified. These relationships are critical for understanding current distributions and predicting future shifts from climate change. We used trait-based models to characterize temperature-dependent transmission of 10 vector-pathogen pairs of mosquitoes (Culex pipiens, Cx. quinquefascsiatus, Cx. tarsalis, and others) and viruses (West Nile, Eastern and Western Equine Encephalitis, St. Louis Encephalitis, Sindbis, and Rift Valley Fever viruses), most with substantial transmission in temperate regions. Transmission is optimized at intermediate temperatures (23-26°C) and often has wider thermal breadths (due to cooler lower thermal limits) compared to pathogens with predominately tropical distributions (in previous studies). The incidence of human West Nile virus cases across US counties responded unimodally to average summer temperature and peaked at 24°C, matching model-predicted optima (24-25°C). Climate warming will likely shift transmission of these diseases, increasing it in cooler locations while decreasing it in warmer locations.

Spatial risk analysis for the introduction and circulation of six arboviruses in the Netherlands

Background

Arboviruses are a growing public health concern in Europe, with both endemic and exotic arboviruses expected to spread further into novel areas in the next decades. Predicting where future outbreaks will occur is a major challenge, particularly for regions where these arboviruses are not endemic. Spatial modelling of ecological risk factors for arbovirus circulation can help identify areas of potential emergence. Moreover, combining hazard maps of different arboviruses may facilitate a cost-efficient, targeted multiplex-surveillance strategy in areas where virus transmission is most likely. Here, we developed predictive hazard maps for the introduction and/or establishment of six arboviruses that were previously prioritized for the Netherlands: West Nile virus, Japanese encephalitis virus, Rift Valley fever virus, tick-borne encephalitis virus, louping-ill virus and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus.

Methods

Our spatial model included ecological risk factors that were identified as relevant for these arboviruses by an earlier systematic review, including abiotic conditions, vector abundance, and host availability. We used geographic information system (GIS)-based tools and geostatistical analyses to model spatially continuous datasets on these risk factors to identify regions in the Netherlands with suitable ecological conditions for arbovirus introduction and establishment.

Results

The resulting hazard maps show that there is spatial clustering of areas with either a relatively low or relatively high environmental suitability for arbovirus circulation. Moreover, there was some overlap in high-hazard areas for virus introduction and/or establishment, particularly in the southern part of the country.

Conclusions

The similarities in environmental suitability for some of the arboviruses provide opportunities for targeted sampling of vectors and/or sentinel hosts in these potential hotspots of emergence, thereby increasing the efficient use of limited resources for surveillance.

A Comparison of Adult Mosquito Trapping Methods to Assess Potential West Nile Virus Mosquito Vectors in Greece during the Onset of the 2018 Transmission Season

West Nile virus (WNV) threatens the health of humans and equines worldwide. Culex (Cx.) pipiens complex mosquitoes are major vectors but numerous other species have been implicated. Due to variations in blood-feeding behaviour, Cx. pipiens biotypes and hybrids influence transmission, from enzootic cycles (between mosquitoes and birds), to spill-over transmission to humans and equines. In this study, mosquitoes were collected in May–June 2018 during the early period of the transmission season from two regional units of Greece, where WNV cases had been reported in the previous four years (Palaio Faliro and Argolida). A total of 1062 mosquitoes were collected with Biogents Sentinel 2 traps collecting both a greater number of all mosquito species and the Cx. pipiens complex than CDC miniature light traps or Heavy Duty EVS traps. Molecular identification confirmed additional species including Aedes albopictus. The proportion of Cx. pipiens biotypes in Palaio Faliro was 54.5% pipiens, 20.0% molestus and 25.5% hybrids. In Argolida, the collection comprised 68.1% pipiens biotype, 8.3% molestus biotype and 23.6% hybrids. Screening resulted in WNV detection in three females of the pipiens biotype and in one hybrid. As hybrids play a role in spill-over transmission, these findings highlight the importance of entomological surveillance programs incorporating molecular xenomonitoring as an early warning before human cases at the onset of the transmission season.

The effect of warming on pesticide toxicity is reversed between developmental stages in the mosquito Culex pipiens

A better understanding of interactions between pesticides and warming is important to improve ecological risk assessment in a warming world. Current insights are almost exclusively based on studies that exposed animals simultaneously to both warming and a pesticide and focused on effects during the pesticide exposure period and within a single developmental stage. We studied two ignored aspects of the interplay between warming and pesticide exposure: (i) the role of delayed effects after the pesticide exposure period, and (ii) the dependence on the developmental stage. We carried out a longitudinal experiment from the egg stage to the adult stage in the mosquito Culex pipiens where we crossed a warming treatment (20 °C vs 24 °C) with 48 h exposures to the pesticide chlorpyrifos in three developmental stages (early L1 larvae, late L4 larvae and adults). Chlorpyrifos induced mild to moderate mortality in all developmental stages (10-30%). A key finding was that warming shaped the chlorpyrifos-induced mortality but in opposite directions between stages. Chlorpyrifos was 7% less toxic under warming in L1 larvae, yet more toxic under warming in L4 larvae (22%) and in adult males (33%), while toxicity did not change under warming in adult females. We hypothesize that the general, stage-specific differences in the effects of warming on body size (increased size in early larvae, decreased size in later stages) caused the reversal of the effects of warming on toxicity between stages. Previous larval exposure to chlorpyrifos caused delayed effects that strongly reduced survival to the adult stage (̰25% at 24 °C). Notably, warming also modulated these delayed mortality effects in opposite ways between developmental stages, matching the patterns of mortality during the pesticide exposure periods. Integrating the general stage-specific patterns of how warming shapes body size is important to advance our mechanistic understanding of the interactions between pesticides and warming.

The Role of Temperature in Transmission of Zoonotic Arboviruses

We reviewed the literature on the role of temperature in transmission of zoonotic arboviruses. Vector competence is affected by both direct and indirect effects of temperature, and generally increases with increasing temperature, but results may vary by vector species, population, and viral strain. Temperature additionally has a significant influence on life history traits of vectors at both immature and adult life stages, and for important behaviors such as blood-feeding and mating. Similar to vector competence, temperature effects on life history traits can vary by species and population. Vector, host, and viral distributions are all affected by temperature, and are generally expected to change with increased temperatures predicted under climate change. Arboviruses are generally expected to shift poleward and to higher elevations under climate change, yet significant variability on fine geographic scales is likely. Temperature effects are generally unimodal, with increases in abundance up to an optimum, and then decreases at high temperatures. Improved vector distribution information could facilitate future distribution modeling. A wide variety of approaches have been used to model viral distributions, although most research has focused on the West Nile virus. Direct temperature effects are frequently observed, as are indirect effects, such as through droughts, where temperature interacts with rainfall. Thermal biology approaches hold much promise for syntheses across viruses, vectors, and hosts, yet future studies must consider the specificity of interactions and the dynamic nature of evolving biological systems.

Thermal biology of mosquito-borne disease

Mosquito-borne diseases cause a major burden of disease worldwide. The vital rates of these ectothermic vectors and parasites respond strongly and nonlinearly to temperature and therefore to climate change. Here, we review how trait-based approaches can synthesise and mechanistically predict the temperature dependence of transmission across vectors, pathogens, and environments. We present 11 pathogens transmitted by 15 different mosquito species - including globally important diseases like malaria, dengue, and Zika - synthesised from previously published studies. Transmission varied strongly and unimodally with temperature, peaking at 23-29ºC and declining to zero below 9-23ºC and above 32-38ºC. Different traits restricted transmission at low versus high temperatures, and temperature effects on transmission varied by both mosquito and parasite species. Temperate pathogens exhibit broader thermal ranges and cooler thermal minima and optima than tropical pathogens. Among tropical pathogens, malaria and Ross River virus had lower thermal optima (25-26ºC) while dengue and Zika viruses had the highest (29ºC) thermal optima. We expect warming to increase transmission below thermal optima but decrease transmission above optima. Key directions for future work include linking mechanistic models to field transmission, combining temperature effects with control measures, incorporating trait variation and temperature variation, and investigating climate adaptation and migration.

Predicting West Nile virus transmission in North American bird communities using phylogenetic mixed effects models and eBird citizen science data

BACKGROUND

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-transmitted disease of birds that has caused bird population declines and can spill over into human populations. Previous research has identified bird species that infect a large fraction of the total pool of infected mosquitoes and correlate with human infection risk; however, these analyses cover small spatial regions and cannot be used to predict transmission in bird communities in which these species are rare or absent. Here we present a mechanistic model for WNV transmission that predicts WNV spread (R0) in any bird community in North America by scaling up from the physiological responses of individual birds to transmission at the level of the community. We predict unmeasured bird species' responses to infection using phylogenetic imputation, based on these species' phylogenetic relationships with bird species with measured responses.

RESULTS

We focused our analysis on Texas, USA, because it is among the states with the highest total incidence of WNV in humans and is well sampled by birders in the eBird database. Spatio-temporal patterns: WNV transmission is primarily driven by temperature variation across time and space, and secondarily by bird community composition. In Texas, we predicted WNV R0 to be highest in the spring and fall when temperatures maximize the product of mosquito transmission and survival probabilities. In the most favorable months for WNV transmission (April, May, September and October), we predicted R0 to be highest in the "Piney Woods" and "Oak Woods & Prairies" ecoregions of Texas, and lowest in the "High Plains" and "South Texas Brush County" ecoregions. Dilution effect: More abundant bird species are more competent hosts for WNV, and predicted WNV R0 decreases with increasing species richness. Keystone species: We predicted that northern cardinals (Cardinalis cardinalis) are the most important hosts for amplifying WNV and that mourning doves (Zenaida macroura) are the most important sinks of infection across Texas.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite some data limitations, we demonstrate the power of phylogenetic imputation in predicting disease transmission in heterogeneous host communities. Our mechanistic modeling framework shows promise both for assisting future analyses on transmission and spillover in heterogeneous multispecies pathogen systems and for improving model transparency by clarifying assumptions, choices and shortcomings in complex ecological analyses.

Risk factors associated with sustained circulation of six zoonotic arboviruses: a systematic review for selection of surveillance sites in non-endemic areas

Arboviruses represent a significant burden to public health and local economies due to their ability to cause unpredictable and widespread epidemics. To maximize early detection of arbovirus emergence in non-endemic areas, surveillance efforts should target areas where circulation is most likely. However, identifying such hotspots of potential emergence is a major challenge. The ecological conditions leading to arbovirus outbreaks are shaped by complex interactions between the virus, its vertebrate hosts, arthropod vector, and abiotic environment that are often poorly understood. Here, we systematically review the ecological risk factors associated with the circulation of six arboviruses that are of considerable concern to northwestern Europe. These include three mosquito-borne viruses (Japanese encephalitis virus, West Nile virus, Rift Valley fever virus) and three tick-borne viruses (Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus, tick-borne encephalitis virus, and louping-ill virus). We consider both intrinsic (e.g. vector and reservoir host competence) and extrinsic (e.g. temperature, precipitation, host densities, land use) risk factors, identify current knowledge gaps, and discuss future directions. Our systematic review provides baseline information for the identification of regions and habitats that have suitable ecological conditions for endemic circulation, and therefore may be used to target early warning surveillance programs aimed at detecting multi-virus and/or arbovirus emergence.

Assessment of West nile virus transmission risk from a weather-dependent epidemiological model and a global sensitivity analysis framework

West Nile virus (WNV) transmission risk is strongly related to weather conditions due to the sensitivity of the mosquitoes to climatic factors. We assess the WNV transmission risk of humans to seasonal weather conditions and the relative effects of parameters affecting the transmission dynamics. The assessment involves a known epidemiological model we extend to account for temperature and precipitation and a global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis framework. We focus on three relevant quantities, the basic reproduction number (R₀), the minimum infection rate (MIR), and the number of infected individuals. The highest-priority weather-related WNV transmission risks can be attributed to the birth and death rate of mosquitoes, the biting rate of mosquitoes to birds, and the probability of transmission from birds to mosquitoes. Global sensitivity analysis indicates that these parameters make up a big part of the explained variance in R₀ and MIR. The analysis allows for a dynamic assessment over time capturing the period parameters are more relevant than others. Global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of WNV transmission risk to humans enable insights into the relative importance of individual parameters of the transmission cycle of the virus facilitating the understanding of the dynamics and the implementation of tailored control strategies.

Effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases: an updated focus on West Nile virus in humans

One of the main impacts of climate change on health is the influence on vector-borne diseases (VBDs). During the last few years, yearly outbreaks of the West Nile virus (WNV) have occurred in many locations, providing evidence of ongoing transmission. Currently, it is the most widely distributed arbovirus in the world. Increases in ambient temperature have impacts on WNV transmission. Indeed, clear associations were found between warm conditions and WNV outbreaks in various areas. The impact of changes in rainfall patterns on the incidence of the disease is influenced by the amount of precipitation (increased rainfall, floods or droughts), depending on the local conditions and the differences in the ecology and sensitivity of the species of mosquito. Predictions indicate that for WNV, increased warming will result in latitudinal and altitudinal expansions of regions climatically suitable for transmission, particularly along the current edges of its transmission areas. Extension of the transmission season is also predicted. As models show that the current climate change trends are expected to continue, it is important to reinforce WNV control efforts and increase the resilience of population health. For a better preparedness, any assessment of future transmission of WNV should consider the impacts of the changing climate.

Uncovering mechanisms behind mosquito seasonality by integrating mathematical models and daily empirical population data: Culex pipiens in the UK

BACKGROUND

Many mosquito-borne diseases exhibit substantial seasonality, due to strong links between environmental variables and vector and pathogen life-cycles. Further, a range of density-dependent and density-independent biotic and abiotic processes affect the phenology of mosquito populations, with potentially large knock-on effects for vector dynamics and disease transmission. Whilst it is understood that density-independent and density-dependent processes affect seasonal population levels, it is not clear how these interact temporally to shape the population peaks and troughs. Due to this, the paucity of high-resolution data for validation, and the difficulty of parameterizing density-dependent processes, models of vector dynamics may poorly estimate abundances, which has knock-on effects for our ability predict vector-borne disease outbreaks.

RESULTS

We present a rich dataset describing seasonal abundance patterns of each life stage of Culex pipiens, a widespread vector of West Nile virus, at a field site in southern England in 2015. Abundance of immature stages was measured three times per week, whilst adult traps were run four nights each week. This dataset is integrated with an existing delay-differential equation model predicting Cx. pipiens seasonal abundance to improve understanding of observed seasonal abundance patterns. At our field site, the outcome of our model fitting suggests interspecific predation on mosquito larvae and temperature-dependent larval mortality combine to act as the main sources of population regulation throughout the active season, whilst competition for resources is a relatively small source of larval mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The model suggests that density-independent mortality and interspecific predation interact to shape patterns of mosquito seasonal abundance in a permanent aquatic habitat and we propose that competition for resources is likely to be important where periods of high rainfall create transient habitats. Further, we highlight the importance of challenging population abundance models with data from across all life stages of the species of interest if reliable inferences are to be drawn from these models, particularly when considering mosquito control and vector-borne disease transmission.

An adaptive transgenerational effect of warming but not of pesticide exposure determines how a pesticide and warming interact for antipredator behaviour

The impact of pesticides on organisms may strongly depend on temperature. While many species will be exposed to pesticides and warming both in the parental and offspring generations, transgenerational effects of pesticides under warming are still poorly studied, particularly for behaviour. We therefore studied the single and combined effects of exposure to the pesticide chlorpyrifos (CPF) and warming both within and across generations on antipredator behaviour of larvae of the vector mosquito Culex pipiens. Within each generation pesticide exposure and warming reduced the escape diving time, making the larvae more susceptible to predation. Pesticide exposure of the parents did not affect offspring antipredator behaviour. Yet, parental exposure to warming determined how warming and the pesticide interacted in the offspring generation. When parents were reared at 24 °C, warming no longer reduced offspring diving times in the solvent control, suggesting an adaptive transgenerational effect to prepare the offspring to better deal with a higher predation risk under warming. Related to this, the CPF-induced reduction in diving time was stronger at 20 °C than at 24 °C, except in the offspring whose parents had been exposed to 24 °C. This dependency of the widespread interaction between warming and pesticide exposure on an adaptive transgenerational effect of warming is an important finding at the interface of global change ecology and ecotoxicology.

Assessment of vector competence of UK mosquitoes for Usutu virus of African origin

BACKGROUND

Usutu virus (USUV) is an emerging zoonotic virus originally from sub-Saharan Africa. It has been introduced into Europe on multiple occasions, causing substantial mortality within the Eurasian blackbird (Turdus merula) population. It is transmitted by the mosquito species Culex pipiens in Europe and Africa. Vector competence studies indicate that European strains of USUV are readily transmitted by indigenous Cx. pipiens. However, there is limited information on the ability of an African strain to infect European mosquitoes.

METHODS

We evaluated the ability of African strain SAAR-1776 to infect two lines of Cx. pipiens colonised within the United Kingdom (UK). Mosquitoes were fed blood meals containing this virus and maintained at 25 °C for up to 21 days. Individual mosquitoes were tested for the presence of virus in the body, legs and an expectorate saliva sample. Changes to the consensus of the virus genome were monitored in samples derived from infected mosquitoes using amplicon based next generation sequencing.

RESULTS

Infection, dissemination and the presence of virus in saliva in one mosquito line was observed, but no evidence for dissemination in the second mosquito line. This suggests a strong barrier to infection in UK Cx. pipiens for this strain of USUV. When comparing the genome of input virus within the blood meal with USUV recovered from an infected mosquito, we observed limited changes in the consensus genome sequence.

CONCLUSIONS

The evaluation of vector competence of UK populations of Cx. pipiens for Usutu virus suggests a limited susceptibility to infection with USUV strain SAAR-1776 of African origin. However, within a single mosquito there was complete dissemination and expectoration of USUV, indicating that infection, and potentially transmission, is possible. Sequence changes were observed that may represent early adaption to the mosquito host and could reflect the early events of USUV establishment in European mosquito populations.

Development of an Electrochemical Paper-Based Analytical Device for Trace Detection of Virus Particles

Viral pathogens are a serious health threat around the world, particularly in resource limited settings, where current sensing approaches are often insufficient and slow, compounding the spread and burden of these pathogens. Here, we describe a label-free, point-of-care approach toward detection of virus particles, based on a microfluidic paper-based analytical device with integrated microwire Au electrodes. The device is initially characterized through capturing of streptavidin modified nanoparticles by biotin-modified microwires. An order of magnitude improvement in detection limits is achieved through use of a microfluidic device over a classical static paper-based device, due to enhanced mass transport and capturing of particles on the modified electrodes. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy detection of West Nile virus particles was carried out using antibody functionalized Au microwires, achieving a detection limit of 10.2 particles in 50 μL of cell culture media. No increase in signal is found on addition of an excess of a nonspecific target (Sindbis). This detection motif is significantly cheaper (∼$1 per test) and faster (∼30 min) than current methods, while achieving the desired selectivity and sensitivity. This sensing motif represents a general platform for trace detection of a wide range of biological pathogens.

The Role of Culex pipiens L. (Diptera: Culicidae) in Virus Transmission in Europe

Over the past three decades, a range of mosquito-borne viruses that threaten public and veterinary health have emerged or re-emerged in Europe. Mosquito surveillance activities have highlighted the Culex pipiens species complex as being critical for the maintenance of a number of these viruses. This species complex contains morphologically similar forms that exhibit variation in phenotypes that can influence the probability of virus transmission. Critical amongst these is the choice of host on which to feed, with different forms showing different feeding preferences. This influences the ability of the mosquito to vector viruses and facilitate transmission of viruses to humans and domestic animals. Biases towards blood-feeding on avian or mammalian hosts have been demonstrated for different Cx. pipiens ecoforms and emerging evidence of hybrid populations across Europe adds another level of complexity to virus transmission. A range of molecular methods based on DNA have been developed to enable discrimination between morphologically indistinguishable forms, although this remains an active area of research. This review provides a comprehensive overview of developments in the understanding of the ecology, behaviour and genetics of Cx. pipiens in Europe, and how this influences arbovirus transmission.