The patterns of Non-communicable disease Multimorbidity in Iran: A Multilevel Analysis

Multimorbidity latent classes in relation to 11-year mortality, risk factors and health-related quality of life in Malaysia: a prospective health and demographic surveillance system study

BACKGROUND

We aimed to identify specific multimorbidity latent classes among multi-ethnic community-dwelling adults aged ≥ 18 years in Malaysia. We further explored the risk factors associated with these patterns and examined the relationships between the multimorbidity patterns and 11-year all-cause mortality risk, as well as health-related quality of life (HRQoL).

METHODS

Using data from 18,101 individuals (aged 18-97 years) from the baseline Census 2012, Health Round 2013, and Verbal Autopsies 2012-2023 of the South East Asia Community Observatory (SEACO) health and demographic surveillance system, latent class analysis was performed on 13 chronic health conditions to identify statistically and clinically meaningful groups. Multinomial logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression models were conducted to investigate the adjusted association of multimorbidity patterns with the risk factors and mortality, respectively. HRQoL was analyzed by linear contrasts in conjunction with ANCOVA adjusted for baseline confounders.

RESULTS

Four distinct multimorbidity latent classes were identified: (1) relatively healthy (n = 10,640); (2) cardiometabolic diseases (n = 2428); (3) musculoskeletal, mobility and sensory disorders (n = 2391); and (4) complex multimorbidity (a group with more severe multimorbidity with combined profiles of classes 2 and 3) (n = 699). Significant variations in associations between socio-demographic characteristics and multimorbidity patterns were discovered, including age, sex, ethnicity, education level, marital status, household monthly income and employment status. The complex multimorbidity group had the lowest HRQoL across all domains compared to other groups (p < 0.001), including physical health, psychological, social relationships and environment. This group also exhibited the highest mortality risk over 11 years even after adjustment of confounders (age, sex, ethnicity, education and employment status), with a hazard of death of 1.83 (95% CI 1.44-2.33), followed by the cardiometabolic group (HR 1.42, 95% CI 1.18-1.70) and the musculoskeletal, mobility and sensory disorders group (HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.04-1.59).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study advances the understanding of the complexity of multimorbidity and its implications for health outcomes and healthcare delivery. The findings suggest the need for integrated healthcare approaches that account for the clusters of multiple conditions and prioritize the complex multimorbidity cohort. Further longitudinal studies are warranted to explore the underlying mechanisms and evolution of multimorbidity patterns.

Sex disparity in the burden of NCDs and its four main subgroups in Iran 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the global burden of disease study 2019

Objectives

The significant health differences between sexes in Iran in terms of burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) point to the urgency of developing policies. We aim to explore sex disparities in NCDs.

Methods

We used Global Burden of Disease 2019 study to compare estimates of incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disabilities (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and deaths among sexes for NCDs, and their main subgroups; neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs), diabetes mellitus (DM) during 1990-2019.

Results

In 2019, there were 62,476,274 (59517167.5, 65759931) incident NCDs in men and 78758640.6 (75222093.7, 82272935.8) in women. There were 7734064.3 (6744951.2, 8846192) DALYs in men and 7760484.2 (6496609, 9218299.9) in women. Fatal estimates (deaths and YLLs) of NCDs were higher for men, while non-fatal estimates (prevalence, YLDs) were higher for women. Men were superior in all burden indices of NCDs subgroups, except for all indices of DM and YLDs in CVDs. Compared to 1990-2010, the period 2010-2019 confirmed a marked stagnation in decline rates of burden indices, as well as an increase in incidence and prevalence which was more pronounced among men. Despite shrinking sex gaps in NCDs subgroups since 1990, sex gap in DM is widening in 2019.

Conclusions

There is a notable sex disparity in NCDs prevalence in Iran, which has become increasingly evident in DM burden. It will be imperative to continue monitoring sexual differences in NCDs burden to determine if disease rates between sexes continue to diverge in the future.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40200-024-01489-1.

Future scenarios of palliative care in health system of Iran: a multi-method study

Background

Paying attention to palliative care has accelerated in Iran in the last 10 years. Considering the trend of aging, increasing burden of chronic diseases and increasing health costs, planning and development of palliative care is necessary in the future. This study was conducted with the aim of explaining the alternative scenarios of palliative care in the health system of Iran until the horizon of 2030.

Methods

This study was a multi-method scenario planning with a qualitative using multiple methods design, which was conducted in 3 phases in 2018-2020. In the first phase, a list of driving forces was extracted using qualitative interviews and literature review. In the second phase, all factors identified in the previous phase were examined in terms of degree of uncertainty and cross-impact analysis, and two key uncertainties were extracted. In the third phase, based on two key uncertainties, four future scenarios of palliative care were formulated, validated and scenario strategies were presented.

Results

The results indicate two uncertainties, including "governance of palliative care in the health system" and "acceptance of palliative care by society," based on which, four scenarios with the names "climbing to the top," "excruciating climb," "edge of the abyss" and "The bottom of the valley" were compiled.

Conclusion

The development of palliative care in health system of Iran is faced with serious uncertainties that it is necessary to focus the developmental activities of palliative care on the two axes of acceptance by society and need for coherent governance by considering all the dimensions and influential components by ministry of health. The application of the results of this research can provide reasonable options for effective interventions and implementation of this category of services to the beneficiaries of palliative care.

Readiness for advance care planning and related factors in the general population: a cross sectional study in Iran

CONTEXT

Advance Care Planning (ACP), as a process for expressing and recording patients' preferences about end-of-life care, has received increasing attention in recent years. However, implementing ACP has been challenging in Iran.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the readiness for advance care planning and related factors in the general population of Iran.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted on the general population of Iran in 2022. The data was collected using demographic information questionnaire and The RACP Scale. The purpose and methodology of the research was explained to all participants, and upon their agreement an informed consent was obtained. Participants were invited to fill out the questionnaires wherever is more convenient for them, either alone or if needed, with the help of the researcher to protect their privacy. Chi-square, fisher exact test and multiple logistic Regression model were used to assess the effective factors on the RACP. The data were analyzed by SPSS software version 26.

RESULTS

A total of 641 people with an average age of 36.85 ± 12.05 years participated in this study. Of those, 377 (58.8%) had high RACP. The logistics model showed an association between the chance of readiness for receiving ACP with participants' education level, such that the chance of readiness in those with Master's or Ph.D. degrees was three times higher than those with a diploma (p = 0.00, OR:3.178(1.672, 6.043)). However, the chances of readiness in those with bachelor's degrees was not significantly different from those with a diploma (p = 0.936, OR: 0.984 (0.654, 1.479)). Moreover, the chance of readiness was 1.5 higher in participants over 40 years of age compared with participants under the age of 40 (P = 0.01, OR: 1.571(1.10, 2.23)).

CONCLUSION

According to the findings of this study, it can be concluded that there is a relatively RACP among people in Iranian society. The readiness of individuals for ACP increases by their age and education level. Therefore, by holding appropriate training intervention, we can increase the readiness of the public for ACP to improve their end-of-life outcome.

Multimorbid life expectancy across race, socio-economic status, and sex in South Africa

Multimorbidity is increasing globally as populations age. However, it is unclear how long individuals live with multimorbidity and how it varies by social and economic factors. We investigate this in South Africa, whose apartheid history further complicates race, socio-economic, and sex inequalities. We introduce the term 'multimorbid life expectancy' (MMLE) to describe the years lived with multimorbidity. Using data from the South African National Income Dynamics Study (2008-17) and incidence-based multistate Markov modelling, we find that females experience higher MMLE than males (17.3 vs 9.8 years), and this disparity is consistent across all race and education groups. MMLE is highest among Asian/Indian people and the post-secondary educated relative to other groups and lowest among African people. These findings suggest there are associations between structural inequalities and MMLE, highlighting the need for health-system and educational policies to be implemented in a way proportional to each group's level of need.

Determinants of multimorbidity in older adults in Iran: a cross-sectional study using latent class analysis on the Bushehr Elderly Health (BEH) program

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Multimorbidity, defined as the presence of two or more long-term health conditions in an individual, is one of the most significant challenges facing health systems worldwide. This study aimed to identify determinants of classes of multimorbidity among older adults in Iran.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

In a cross-sectional sample of older adults (aged ≥ 60 years) from the second stage of the Bushehr Elderly Health (BEH) program in southern Iran, latent class analysis (LCA) was used to identify patterns of multimorbidity. Multinomial logistic regression was conducted to investigate factors associated with each multimorbidity class, including age, gender, education, household income, physical activity, smoking status, and polypharmacy.

RESULTS

In 2,426 study participants (mean age 69 years, 52% female), the overall prevalence of multimorbidity was 80.2%. Among those with multimorbidity, 3 latent classes were identified. These comprised: class 1, individuals with a low burden of multisystem disease (56.9%); class 2, individuals with predominantly cardiovascular-metabolic disorders (25.8%) and class 3, individuals with predominantly cognitive and metabolic disorders (17.1%). Compared with men, women were more likely to belong to class 2 (odds ratio [OR] 1.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.52-2.54) and class 3 (OR 4.52, 95% CI 3.22-6.35). Polypharmacy was associated with membership class 2 (OR 3.52, 95% CI: 2.65-4.68) and class 3 (OR 1.84, 95% CI 1.28-2.63). Smoking was associated with membership in class 3 (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.01-2.08). Individuals with higher education levels (59%) and higher levels of physical activity (39%) were less likely to belong to class 3 (OR 0.41; 95% CI: 0.28-0.62) and to class 2 (OR 0.61; 95% CI: 0.38-0.97), respectively. Those at older age were less likely to belong to class 2 (OR 0.95).

DISCUSSION AND IMPLICATIONS

A large proportion of older adults in Iran have multimorbidity. Female sex, polypharmacy, sedentary lifestyle, and poor education levels were associated with cardiovascular-metabolic multimorbidity and cognitive and metabolic multimorbidity. A greater understanding of the determinants of multimorbidity may lead to strategies to prevent its development.

The perceived experience of adhering to vegan diet: a descriptive phenomenological study

BACKGROUND

Today, raw vegetarianism is considered one of the most important socio-cultural developments in contemporary societies. In this regard, the present study was conducted to describe the perceived experience of people adhering to a vegan diet through a phenomenological perspective.

METHODS

This qualitative study explores the perceived experiences of individuals who follow a vegan diet and are part of the self-care campaign in Kermanshah, Iran. sampling was purposeful and face-to-face interviews were conducted with 12 individuals who follow a vegan lifestyle. The data were analyzed after being collected using the seven steps of Collizi. MAXQUDA software (version 12) was used for data management.

RESULTS

After qualitative data analysis, we identified 567 codes, which were categorized into 15 sub-themes. From these sub-themes, we derived 4 main themes. The main themes include: In pursuit of redemption (Meaningful framework, In awareness path, Unequaled Disappointment, Chronic and complex conditions), Seeking the New World (Starting with doubt and hesitation, The temptation to return, Constant criticism, Unfamiliar appearance), On the path of overcoming difficulties (Associate problems, Matching the new way, Perceived recommendations), and attaining the expected outcomes (Healthy lifestyle, Therapeutic feedback, Enhancing emotional wellbeing, Feeling of youth).

CONCLUSION

Based on the participants' experience, despite the challenging journey, the people with a vegetarian diet experienced partial and complete improvement of all the symptoms of the diseases. They had a healthy lifestyle and felt young and energetic. Likewise, this method had a positive effect on people's mental state and mood.

Health insurance status, lifestyle choices and the presence of non-communicable diseases: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Although health insurance (HI) has effectively mitigated healthcare financial burdens, its contribution to healthy lifestyle choices and the presence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is not well established. We aimed to systematically review the existing evidence on the effect of HI on healthy lifestyle choices and NCDs.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted across PubMed, Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library and CINAHLComplet@EBSCOhost from inception until 30 September 2022, capturing studies that reported the effect of HI on healthy lifestyle and NCDs. A narrative synthesis of the studies was done. The review concluded both longitudinal and cross-sectional studies. A critical appraisal checklist for survey-based studies and the National Institutes of Health Quality Assessment Tool for Observational Cohort and Cross-Sectional Studies were used for the quality assessment.

RESULT

Twenty-four studies met the inclusion criteria. HI was associated with the propensity to engage in physical activities (6/11 studies), consume healthy diets (4/7 studies), not to smoke (5/11 studies) or take alcohol (5/10 studies). Six (of nine) studies showed that HI coverage was associated with a lowered prevalence of NCDs.

CONCLUSION

This evidence suggests that HI is beneficial. More reports showed that it propitiated a healthy lifestyle and was associated with a reduced prevalence of NCDs.

Chronic disease and multimorbidity in the Chinese older adults' population and their impact on daily living ability: a cross-sectional study of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS)

BACKGROUND

Owing to an increase in life expectancy, it is common for the older adults to suffer from chronic diseases that can result in disability and a low quality of life. This study aimed to explore the influence of chronic diseases and multimorbidities on activities of daily living (ADLs) and instrumental ADLs (IADLs) in an older Chinese population.

METHODS

Based on the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (2018), 9,155 older adults aged 65 years and above were included in the study. A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect information on demographic characteristics, chronic diseases, ADLs, and IADLs. The impact of factors affecting ADL and IADL impairment in older adults was analysed using binary logistic regression.

RESULTS

In total, 66.3% participants had chronic diseases. Hypertension, heart disease, arthritis, diabetes and cerebrovascular disease were among the top chronic diseases. Of these, 33.7% participants had multimorbidities. The most common combination of the two chronic diseases was hypertension and heart disease (11.2%), whereas the most common combination of the three chronic diseases was hypertension, heart disease, and diabetes (3.18%). After categorising the older adults into four age groups, dementia, visual impairment, and hearing impairment were found to be more prevalent with increasing age. The prevalence of hypertension, heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, gastrointestinal ulcers, arthritis and chronic nephritis gradually increased with age until the age of 75 years, peaked in the 75-84 years age group, and then showed a decreasing trend with age. Multimorbidity prevalence followed a similar pattern. Regression analysis indicated that the increase in age group and the number of chronic diseases independently correlated with impairments in ADL as well as IADL. Additionally, gender, physical activity, educational background, obesity, depressive symptoms, and falls also had an impact on ADLs or IADLs.

CONCLUSION

Chronic diseases and multimorbidities are common in older adults, and it is important to note that aging, multimorbidity, obesity, and unhealthy lifestyle choices may interfere with ADLs or IADLs in older adults. Therefore, it is imperative that primary healthcare providers pay special attention to older adults and improve screening for multimorbidity and follow-up needs.

Prevalence of Mental Disorders Among Patients with Multimorbidity Visiting Primary Care Settings in Slums of Karachi, Pakistan

BACKGROUND

Anxiety and depression often exacerbate multimorbidity conditions, leading to increased disability rates among affected individuals.

OBJECTIVE

The study aimed to assess the mental health status of individuals with multimorbidity belonging to the marginalized population of Karachi, Pakistan. Specifically, the prevalence of anxiety and depression was investigated.

METHODS

A multicenter cross-sectional study was conducted between July 2022 and June 2023 in 10 primary healthcare clinics located in 4 peri-urban areas of Karachi. A total of 9331 participants were included in the study. The Patient Health Questionnaire 4 (PHQ-4), Generalized Anxiety Disorder 7 (GAD-7), and Patient Health Questionnaire 9 (PHQ-9) were used to assess symptoms of anxiety and depression. The data collected were analyzed using the statistical analysis system (SAS) version 9.4.

RESULTS

Among the study participants, 2894 (31%) were men and 5534 (59.3%) were women. The prevalence of moderate to severe anxiety was 31% among men and 59.3% among women. The age group between 41 and 60 years exhibited the highest rates of moderate to severe anxiety, 19.3% as evaluated by GAD-7 and 34.6% by PHQ-9. The Pathan ethnic group had the highest prevalence of anxiety (11%) and depression (28.3%) in the neighborhoods. Unemployed participants showed moderate to severe anxiety in 21.3% of the cases and moderate to severe depression in 25.5% of the cases.

CONCLUSION

The study revealed a significant cooccurrence of anxiety and depression among individuals with multimorbidity in the marginalized population of Karachi, Pakistan. Furthermore, the presence of anxiety symptoms in multimorbidity patients with depression indicates a more unfavorable health state. It is essential to explore the implementation of screening measures and therapeutic interventions for comorbid anxiety and depression in this population to improve clinical outcomes.

A scoping review finds a growing trend in studies validating multimorbidity patterns and identifies five broad types of validation methods

OBJECTIVES

Multimorbidity, the presence of two or more long-term conditions, is a growing public health concern. Many studies use analytical methods to discover multimorbidity patterns from data. We aimed to review approaches used in published literature to validate these patterns.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We systematically searched PubMed and Web of Science for studies published between July 2017 and July 2023 that used analytical methods to discover multimorbidity patterns.

RESULTS

Out of 31,617 studies returned by the searches, 172 were included. Of these, 111 studies (64%) conducted validation, the number of studies with validation increased from 53.13% (17 out of 32 studies) to 71.25% (57 out of 80 studies) in 2017-2019 to 2022-2023, respectively. Five types of validation were identified: assessing the association of multimorbidity patterns with clinical outcomes (n = 79), stability across subsamples (n = 26), clinical plausibility (n = 22), stability across methods (n = 7) and exploring common determinants (n = 2). Some studies used multiple types of validation.

CONCLUSION

The number of studies conducting a validation of multimorbidity patterns is clearly increasing. The most popular validation approach is assessing the association of multimorbidity patterns with clinical outcomes. Methodological guidance on the validation of multimorbidity patterns is needed.

Ethnic Disparities in Major Adverse Cardiac and Cerebrovascular Events (MACCEs) and Postoperative Outcomes Following Coronary Artery Bypass in Northeastern Iran (2007-2016)

BACKGROUND

Turkmens are an ethnic group mainly living in northeastern Iran. Despite previous studies on coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG) outcomes among different ethnicities, the effect of Turkmen ethnicity on outcomes of CABG surgery is still unknown. We aimed to assess the association between Turkmen ethnicity and postoperative outcomes following CABG.

METHODS

We used the CABG data from two heart centers in northeastern Iran between 2007 and 2016. We included adult patients undergoing CABG surgery. The study outcomes were in-hospital major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs), consisting of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and cardiovascular death, and postoperative outcomes, including postoperative arrhythmia, acute atrial fibrillation (AF), major bleeding, and acute renal failure (ARF).

RESULTS

Over the course of one decade, 3632 patients, with an average age (standard deviation) of 59.0 (9.8) years, were studied. Of these, 3,331 patients were of non-Turkmen ethnicity, and 301 patients were Turkmens. According to adjusted analysis, ethnicity was not associated with MACCEs (OR: 1.15, 95 % CI: 0.61, 2.16; P=0.663), postoperative arrhythmia (OR: 1.10, 95% CI: 0.78, 1.54; P=0.588), acute AF (OR: 1.17, 95 % CI: 0.83, 1.66; P=0.359), major bleeding (OR: 1.21, 95 % CI: 0.55, 2.67; P=0.636), or ARF (OR: 2.60, 95 % CI: 0.60, 11.75, P=0.224).

CONCLUSION

This study found that despite ethnic disparity and preoperative differences, Turkmen ethnicity was not associated with in-hospital MACCEs, AF, major bleeding, or ARF after coronary artery bypass.

Risk Factors Associated with Severity and Death from COVID-19 in Iran: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Study

Objectives: This study aims to investigate the risk factors associated with severity and death from COVID-19 through a systematic review and meta-analysis of the published documents in Iran. Methods: A systematic search was performed based on all articles indexed in Scopus, Embase, Web of Science (WOS), PubMed, and Google Scholar in English and Scientific Information Database (SID) and Iranian Research Institute for Information Science and Technology (IRA)NDOC indexes in Persian. To assess quality, we used the Newcastle Ottawa Scale. Publication bias was assessed using Egger's tests. Forest plots were used for a graphical description of the results. We used HRs, and ORs reported for the association between risk factors and COVID-19 severity and death. Results: Sixty-nine studies were included in the meta-analysis, of which 62 and 13 had assessed risk factors for death and severity, respectively. The results showed a significant association between death from COVID-19 and age, male gender, diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease (CVD), cerebrovascular disease, chronic kidney disease (CKD), Headache, and Dyspnea. We observed a significant association between increased white blood cell (WBC), decreased Lymphocyte, increased blood urea nitrogen (BUN), increased creatinine, vitamin D deficiency, and death from COVID-19. There was only a significant relationship between CVD and disease severity. Conclusion: It is recommended that the predictive risk factors of COVID-19 severity and death mentioned in this study to be used for therapeutic and health interventions, to update clinical guidelines and determine patients' prognoses.

Social determinants of multimorbidity patterns: A systematic review

Social determinants of multimorbidity are poorly understood in clinical practice. This review aims to characterize the different multimorbidity patterns described in the literature while identifying the social and behavioral determinants that may affect their emergence and subsequent evolution. We searched PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, Ovid MEDLINE, CINAHL Complete, PsycINFO and Google Scholar. In total, 97 studies were chosen from the 48,044 identified. Cardiometabolic, musculoskeletal, mental, and respiratory patterns were the most prevalent. Cardiometabolic multimorbidity profiles were common among men with low socioeconomic status, while musculoskeletal, mental and complex patterns were found to be more prevalent among women. Alcohol consumption and smoking increased the risk of multimorbidity, especially in men. While the association of multimorbidity with lower socioeconomic status is evident, patterns of mild multimorbidity, mental and respiratory related to middle and high socioeconomic status are also observed. The findings of the present review point to the need for further studies addressing the impact of multimorbidity and its social determinants in population groups where this problem remains invisible (e.g., women, children, adolescents and young adults, ethnic groups, disabled population, older people living alone and/or with few social relations), as well as further work with more heterogeneous samples (i.e., not only focusing on older people) and using more robust methodologies for better classification and subsequent understanding of multimorbidity patterns. Besides, more studies focusing on the social determinants of multimorbidity and its inequalities are urgently needed in low- and middle-income countries, where this problem is currently understudied.

Adherence to the Mediterranean Diet Association with Serum Levels of Nitric Oxide, Prostacyclin, and Thromboxane B2 among Prinzmetal Angina Patients and Healthy Persons

This study aimed to assess the association between adherence to the Mediterranean diet with serum Nitric oxide, Prostacyclin, and Thromboxane B₂ among Prinzmetal angina patients and healthy persons. This case-control study was conducted among 100 Prinzmetal angina patients and 100 healthy persons referred to the Ardabil Imam Khomeini hospital between 2021 and 2022. Blood samples were obtained from all study participants for measurement of serum Nitric oxide, Prostacyclin, and Thromboxane B₂. To calculate adherence to the Mediterranean diet, the ten-item screener was used. The serum Nitric oxide in patients who adhered more to the Mediterranean diet was higher than patients with less adherence (coeff. = 0.41 p = 0.04). The serum Prostacyclin level in patients with greater adherence to the Mediterranean diet was 0.34 units higher than patients with less adherence (coeff. = 0.34 p = 0.02). The level of serum Thromboxane B₂ had a negative association with adherence to the Mediterranean diet (coeff. = -0.48 p = 0.04). The amount of consumption of olive oil, fruits, vegetables, and legumes in healthy people was more than Prinzmetal angina patients. In Prinzmetal angina patients, more adherence to the Mediterranean diet can decrease the serum Thromboxane B₂ and increase the serum Nitric oxide and Prostacyclin.

Association between socio-economic status and non-communicable disease risk in young adults from Kenya, South Africa, and the United Kingdom

There is a pressing need for global health preventions to curb the escalating burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Utilising multi-country study designs can improve our understanding of how socio-economic context shapes the aetiology of NCDs, and this has great potential to advance global health interventions. We examined the association between socio-economic status (SES) and NCD risk, and the potential confounding effects of smoking and alcohol intake in young adults (18-35-year-olds) from Kenya, South Africa (SA), and the United Kingdom (UK). Our study was a cross-sectional online survey that included 3000 respondents (n = 1000 per country, 50% women) conducted in April 2022. We utilised information on twelve NCDs to classify respondents as having "no condition", "one condition", and "multimorbidity" (having two or more conditions). A total household asset score was calculated and used as a proxy of SES, and subsequently categorised into quintiles (Q1-Q5; lowest-highest). Ordered logistic regression was used to test the associations between NCD risk and exposure variables. In the UK sample, we found that those in the second lowest SES quintile (Q2) had lower odds of developing NCDs than their lowest SES counterparts (Q1). In contrast, South African and Kenyan youth with a SES score between middle and highest quintiles (Q3-Q5) were more likely to develop NCDs than the lowest SES quintile group. In all countries, smoking and/or alcohol intake were associated with higher odds of developing NCDs, and showed some confounding effects on the SES-NCD relationships. Specifically, in Kenya, the risk of developing NCD was more than two times higher in those in the middle (Q3) SES group (OR 2.493; 95% CI 1.519-4.091; p < 0.001) compared to their lowest (Q1) SES counterparts. After adjusting for smoking and alcohol, the ORs of middle (Q3) SES group changed from 2.493 to 2.241 (1.360-3.721; p = 0.002). Overall, we found that the strength and direction of SES-NCD associations differed within and between countries. This study highlights how different SES contexts shape the risk of NCDs among young adults residing in countries at different levels of economic development.

Multimorbidity Patterns and Their Association with Social Determinants, Mental and Physical Health during the COVID-19 Pandemic

BACKGROUND

The challenge posed by multimorbidity makes it necessary to look at new forms of prevention, a fact that has become heightened in the context of the pandemic. We designed a questionnaire to detect multimorbidity patterns in people over 50 and to associate these patterns with mental and physical health, COVID-19, and possible social inequalities.

METHODS

This was an observational study conducted through a telephone interview. The sample size was 1592 individuals with multimorbidity. We use Latent Class Analysis to detect patterns and SF-12 scale to measure mental and physical quality-of-life health. We introduced the two dimensions of health and other social determinants in a multinomial regression model.

RESULTS

We obtained a model with five patterns (entropy = 0.727): 'Relative Healthy', 'Cardiometabolic', 'Musculoskeletal', 'Musculoskeletal and Mental', and 'Complex Multimorbidity'. We found some differences in mental and physical health among patterns and COVID-19 diagnoses, and some social determinants were significant in the multinomial regression.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified that prevention requires the location of certain inequalities associated with the multimorbidity patterns and how physical and mental health have been affected not only by the patterns but also by COVID-19. These findings may be critical in future interventions by health services and governments.

Multimorbidity classes indicate differential patterns of health care engagement among people who inject drugs

BACKGROUND

Aging people who inject drugs (PWID) have complex health needs. Health care management could be complicated by persistent substance use, multiple health challenges, and inconsistent access to care. However, we know little about the relationship between chronic multimorbidity and health care engagement in this population. The purpose of this study is to characterize patterns and correlates of chronic disease multimorbidity among PWID.

METHODS

We conducted a latent class analysis (LCA) using data from the AIDS Linked to the IntraVenous Experience (ALIVE) Study, a community-based observational cohort, to determine classes of multimorbid chronic diseases. We then conducted regressions to determine factors associated with class membership and the impact of each multimorbid class on health events and utilization.

RESULTS

Of 1387 individuals included, the majority were male (67%) and Black (81%), with a mean age of 53 years. We identified four classes of multimorbidity: Low Multimorbidity (54%), and Low Multimorbidity Including Psychiatric Comorbidity (26%), Multimorbidity (12%), and Multimorbidity Including Psychiatric Comorbidity (7%). Female sex, baseline age, and receipt of disability were factors significantly associated with membership in all three classes compared to the Low Multimorbidity class. Additionally, PWID in these three classes were significantly more likely to utilize emergency room and outpatient health care. Membership in both classes with psychiatric comorbidity was associated with significantly higher adjusted odds of receiving medication for opioid use disorder.

DISCUSSION

Holistic health care systems can best address the needs of aging PWID with integrated care that provides harm reduction, substance use and mental health treatment together, and wrap around services.

Prevalence and Predicting Risk Factors of Polypharmacy in Azar Cohort Population

Background

As polypharmacy has some medically negative impacts, it has become a challenging issue for public health and affected people. Therefore, we decided to investigate the prevalence of polypharmacy and its predicting risk factors in the Azar cohort population.

Methods

In this cross-sectional population-based cohort study, the prevalence of polypharmacy was evaluated in 15,001 subjects who participated in the Azar cohort study. We measured demographic characteristics (age, gender, socioeconomic status, smoking status, marital status, and education level), physical activity level, body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, multimorbidity (coexistence of two or more chronic diseases (CDs)), and polypharmacy status (a daily intake of five or more medicines for a minimum of 90 days).

Results

Based on our results, 9.51% of the population had polypharmacy. The five most prescribed medications were drugs acting on the cardiovascular system (19.9%), central nervous system (16.7%), endocrine system (13.3%), NSAIDs (11.5%), and drugs used for musculoskeletal and joint diseases (11.4%). Being female, illiterate, and having the lowest tertile of physical activity level significantly increased the risk of polypharmacy. The risk of polypharmacy was 49.36 times higher in patients with four or more CDs than in those without.

Conclusions

Our study emphasized the importance of routine monitoring to evaluate polypharmacy among those aged 35 to 59 and the elderly. Physicians should carefully assess drug suitability, especially in multimorbid and obese patients, to prevent excessive polypharmacy and its potentially negative impacts.

Age- and Sex-Specific Differences in Multimorbidity Patterns and Temporal Trends on Assessing Hospital Discharge Records in Southwest China: Network-Based Study

Background

Multimorbidity represents a global health challenge, which requires a more global understanding of multimorbidity patterns and trends. However, the majority of studies completed to date have often relied on self-reported conditions, and a simultaneous assessment of the entire spectrum of chronic disease co-occurrence, especially in developing regions, has not yet been performed.

Objective

We attempted to provide a multidimensional approach to understand the full spectrum of chronic disease co-occurrence among general inpatients in southwest China, in order to investigate multimorbidity patterns and temporal trends, and assess their age and sex differences.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis based on 8.8 million hospital discharge records of about 5.0 million individuals of all ages from 2015 to 2019 in a megacity in southwest China. We examined all chronic diagnoses using the ICD-10 (International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision) codes at 3 digits and focused on chronic diseases with ≥1% prevalence for each of the age and sex strata, which resulted in a total of 149 and 145 chronic diseases in males and females, respectively. We constructed multimorbidity networks in the general population based on sex and age, and used the cosine index to measure the co-occurrence of chronic diseases. Then, we divided the networks into communities and assessed their temporal trends.

Results

The results showed complex interactions among chronic diseases, with more intensive connections among males and inpatients ≥40 years old. A total of 9 chronic diseases were simultaneously classified as central diseases, hubs, and bursts in the multimorbidity networks. Among them, 5 diseases were common to both males and females, including hypertension, chronic ischemic heart disease, cerebral infarction, other cerebrovascular diseases, and atherosclerosis. The earliest leaps (degree leaps ≥6) appeared at a disorder of glycoprotein metabolism that happened at 25-29 years in males, about 15 years earlier than in females. The number of chronic diseases in the community increased over time, but the new entrants did not replace the root of the community.

Conclusions

Our multimorbidity network analysis identified specific differences in the co-occurrence of chronic diagnoses by sex and age, which could help in the design of clinical interventions for inpatient multimorbidity.

A Methodical Review on the Applications and Potentialities of Using Nanobiosensors for Disease Diagnosis

Presently, with the introduction of nanotechnology, the evolutions and applications of biosensors and/or nanobiosensors are becoming prevalent in various scientific domains such as environmental and agricultural sciences as well as biomedical, clinical, and healthcare sciences. Trends in these aspects have led to the discovery of various biosensors/nanobiosensors with their tremendous benefits to mankind. The characteristics of the various biosensors/nanobiosensors are primarily based on the nature of nanomaterials/nanoparticles employed in the sensing mechanisms. In the last few years, the identification, as well as the detection of biological markers linked with any form of diseases (communicable or noncommunicable), has been accomplished by several sensing procedures using nanotechnology vis-à-vis biosensors/nanobiosensors. Hence, this study employs a systematic approach in reviewing some contemporary developed exceedingly sensitive nanobiosensors alongside their biomedical, clinical, or/and healthcare applications as well as their potentialities, specifically for the detection of some deadly diseases drawn from some of the recent publications. Ways forward in the form of future trends that will advance creative innovations of the potentialities of nanobiosensors for biomedical, clinical, or/and healthcare applications particularly for disease diagnosis are also highlighted.

Mapping Drug Prescription, Polypharmacy, and Pharmaceutical Spending in Older Adults in Iran: A Multilevel Analysis Based on Claims Data

Background: To date, comprehensive data on drug utilization in Iranian people are lacking. The purpose of this study was to graphically describe drug prescription, polypharmacy, and pharmaceutical spending in > 3 million Iranian elderly people. Methods: In this multilevel cross-sectional study, using administrative claims data provided by the Iran Health Insurance Organization (IHIO), we assessed drug claims and drug costs in 2018 in >3 million individuals living in Iran and who have been insured with health insurance (Bimeh Salamat). In particular, we analyzed the prevalence of polypharmacy and pharmaceutical spending use according to the annual Report of Iranian Health Insurance Organization. Multilevel ordinal logistic and multilevel beta regression models were used to analyze the data. Significance level was set as P ≤ .05 and CI at 95%. Results: Nationally, the mean number of drug prescriptions per patient was 1.46 (SD, 0.81). The mean number of prescribed drugs per patient was 4.32 (SD, = 3.04). The drug cost for each elderly patient was $6.86 (interquartile range (IQR), 12.26), with $4.96 and $1.76 for the insurance and the insured shares, respectively. For elderly women, the odds of polypharmacy (excessive and nonexcessive vs no polypharmacy) were 1.164 (95% CI, 1.142 to 1.186) times that of elderly men. In addition, in the spring season, the odds of polypharmacy were 1.274 (95% CI, 1.241 to 1.309) times that of the winter. Similarly, polypharmacy was strongly higher among patients who had noncommunicable diseases (OR, 2.174; 95% CI, 2.069 to 2.275 (P < 0.001)). Conclusion: The high prevalence of hyper prescription in Iran elderly people may indicate a need for interventions aiming at deprescribing drugs with an unfavorable benefit-risk profile. The best practice guidelines should be developed for improved medical practice in the prescription of medications for such a vulnerable population.

Persistence of Multimorbidity Among Women Aged 15-49 Years in India: An Analysis of Prevalence, Patterns and Correlation

Objectives: The present study has examined the patterns and possible correlates of coexisting morbidities among women aged 15–49 years based on biomarker measurement data at the national level in India.

Methods: National Family Health Survey conducted during 2015–16 used in the present study. Simple disease count approach was used to calculate the multimorbidity among women. Multinomial logistic regression was applied to analyze the predictors of multimorbidity among women.

Results: Almost 30% of the women had any of the selected morbidity and 9% of them had two or more morbidities. Hypertension and overweight combination (3%) was the most prevalent among women. The risk of having two or more morbidities was predominantly high among women aged above 30 years, low educated women, women from the wealthier group, ever-married women and women who were consuming tobacco as compared to their counterparts.

Conclusions: From the policy perspective, the identification of groups of women vulnerable to multimorbidity will help in the selection of programmatic focus and preventive public health intervention in adult phase to reduce the multimorbidity burden among women in old ages.

Nurses’ Experiences of Transitional Care in Multiple Chronic Conditions

Transitional care is a designed plan to ensure the continuity of care received by patients as they transfer between different locations or levels of care. The aim of this paper is to explore nurses’ experiences of transitional care in multiple chronic conditions. A qualitative method with a conventional content analysis approach was utilized. The study was conducted at university hospitals in 2 big cities (Isfahan and Tehran) of Iran. This study is performed from November 2018 to December 2019 using deep, semi-structured, and face-to-face interviews which are focused on nurses’ experiences of transitional care. Data collection continued until saturation was reached. Finally, 15 nurses take part in this study. Data collection and data analysis were conducted concurrently. Data were analyzed using Graneheim and Lundman’s techniques. Two main themes providing a descriptive summary of the major elements of transitional care identified: “threat to patient safety” and “Care breakdown”. Findings showed an exclusive image of unsafe transitional care which was done unplanned without appropriate delegating care to family and threat patient safety. There is still a gap in the transition from hospital to home. Nursing managers can address this issue by creating a culture of teamwork, training competent nurses by continuum education, and more supervision of nursing care. Policymakers can ensure continuity of care by developing policies and programs about transitional care.

Prevalence and Socio-Demographic Correlates of Body Weight Categories Among South African Women of Reproductive Age: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background: The shift in disease patterns has been connected with increased body weight burden, becoming a major public health concern in South Africa, as previous studies have assessed overweight or obesity among certain populations. However, little is known about bodyweight burden (underweight, overweight, and obesity) among women aged 15-49 years. Therefore, this study was conducted to identify the prevalence and its associated socio-demographic correlates of bodyweight categories among women of reproductive age in South Africa. Methods: The present study used the South Africa Demographic Health Survey (2016 SADHS) data for 2016. A total of 3,263 women of reproductive age were included in the analysis. Both bivariable and multivariable logistics regressions were performed to determine the prevalence and socio-demographic correlates of bodyweight categories among women in South Africa. Thus, this study used the criteria of the WHO standard body mass index (BMI) cut-offs to classify bodyweight categories. The odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs were estimated for potential determinants included in the final model. Results: The overall prevalence of body weight burden was 66.5%, with 4.9% underweight, 27.1% overweight, and 34.5% obese (p < 0.05). The identified factors associated with underweight among women of reproductive age were those from "other" population group [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 2.65: 95% CI 1.40-5.00], rural residence (AOR 1.23: 95% CI 0.75-2.02), and Northern Cape Province (AOR 1.58: 95% CI 0.65-3.87). For overweight/obese, the main factors were those aged 45-49 years (AOR 10.73: 95% CI 7.41-15.52), tertiary education (AOR 1.41: 95% CI 0.97-2.03), and residing in Eastern Cape (AOR 1.27: 95% CI 0.82-1.99) and KwaZulu-Natal Provinces (AOR 1.20: 95% CI 0.78-1.84). Conclusion: The findings presented in this study indicate the concurrence of underweight and overweight/obese among women aged 15-49 years in South Africa. Despite underweight prevalence being on the decline, yet overweight/obese is increasing over time. The health implication of body weight burden needs rapid and effective interventions, focusing on factors such as rural, education, population group, older age 45-49 years, and Provinces (Northern Cape, Eastern Cape, and KwaZulu-Natal) - the high-risk groups identified herein are of most importance to curb the growing burden among South African women of reproductive age.

A comprehensive review on the applications of nano-biosensor-based approaches for non-communicable and communicable disease detection

The outstretched applications of biosensors in diverse domains has become the reason for their attraction for scientific communities. Because they are analytical devices, they can detect both quantitative and qualitative biological components through the generation of detectable signals. In the recent past, biosensors witnessed significant changes and developments in their design as well as features. Nanotechnology has revolutionized sensing phenomena by increasing biodiagnostic capacity in terms of specificity, size, and cost, resulting in exceptional sensitivity and flexibility. The steep increase of non-communicable diseases across the world has emerged as a matter of concern. In parallel, the abrupt outbreak of communicable diseases poses a serious threat to mankind. For decreasing the morbidity and mortality associated with various communicable and non-communicable diseases, early detection and subsequent treatment are indispensable. Detection of different biological markers generates quantifiable signals that can be electrochemical, mass-based, optical, thermal, or piezoelectric. Speculating on the incumbent applicability and versatility of nano-biosensors in large disciplines, this review highlights different types of biosensors along with their components and detection mechanisms. Moreover, it deals with the current advancements made in biosensors and the applications of nano-biosensors in detection of various non-communicable and communicable diseases, as well as future prospects of nano-biosensors for diagnostics.

Epidemiologic Profile of Hypertension in Northern Iranian Population: The PERSIAN Guilan Cohort Study (PGCS)

Background

Estimates region-related prevalence of hypertension and attempts to identify its related factors at the district levels are required for prevention and management of hypertension.

Objective

The aim of this study was to investigate the epidemic features and related factors of hypertension and its awareness, treatment, and control rates among the northern Iranian population.

Methods

It was a community based cross-sectional study based on data from PERSIAN Guilan Cohort Study (PGCS). In total, 10,520 participants (aged 35-70 years) from the Guilan Province in northern Iran included in this study, between October 8, 2014, and January 20, 2017. Hypertension was defined as systolic blood pressure ≥140 mmHg or diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mmHg or a prior diagnosis of hypertension or being on antihypertensive medication. Potential correlates of hypertension and its awareness, treatment and control were analyzed by multivariate logistic regression adjusted for demographic factors, anthropometric characteristics, lifestyle variables, past medical history, and laboratory data.

Results

The prevalence of hypertension was 43.2% and the hypertension awareness, treatment, and control rate were 53.4%, 49.8%, and 73.7%, respectively. The multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that older age, urbanization, lower education, overweight and obesity, lower physical activity, prediabetes and diabetes, cardiovascular disease, psychiatric disorder, positive family history of hypertension and raised serum creatinine were independently associated with presence of hypertension. Awareness of hypertension was greater in the female sex, older age, rural residency, higher education and patient with comorbidities. Older age, rural residency and comorbidities were associated with treatment of hypertension. Control of hypertension was better among younger age, higher education, normal weight and higher physical activity.

Conclusion

Hypertension is highly prevalent in the northern Iranian population. About half of affected persons are unaware of their disease and untreated. Modifying risk factors (such as weight lose and increase physical activity) and increasing hypertension awareness (by screening) is essential for primary and secondary prevention of high blood pressure in this population, especially in urban areas and among males, younger ages, and less educated.

The impacts of health transformation plan on physiotherapy sector in Iran: a qualitative study using five control knobs

PURPOSE

To investigate physiotherapists', academics', and relevant decision- and policy-makers' experiences regarding the impacts of the Health Transformation Plan (HTP) on the physiotherapy sector in Iran.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This qualitative study was conducted using in-depth semi-structured interviews. The participants were selected using both purposive and snowball sampling strategies with maximum diversity. The sampling procedure continued until data saturation was achieved. The collected data were analyzed using thematic content analysis in accordance with Braun and Clarke's methodology.

RESULTS

The findings showed that the physiotherapy sector has faced several challenges after the implementation of HTP in five control knobs: (1) financing (a decline in the government budget and insufficient health insurance coverage), (2) payment (delayed payments and setting a tight ceiling for reimbursements), (3) behaviors (a decrease in the motivation of physiotherapists, the tendency toward misbehaviors such as absenteeism and providers' unwillingness to cooperate with insurance companies), (4) organization (difficulty in clinical education and ignoring the preventive effects of physiotherapy interventions), and (5) regulation (absence of stakeholders in political processes and inconsistency of upstream documents).

CONCLUSION

HTP has posed various challenges on the physiotherapy sector in Iran. Promoting the policymakers' awareness and aligning the health reforms such as HTP with the current upstream documents would diminish the existing challenges.IMPLICATIONS FOR REHABILITATIONMore government budgets and better insurance coverage are needed to strengthen the physiotherapy sector.Timely payment and modification of limitations for reimbursements of physiotherapy services are recommended.It is recommended to adopt strategies to increase the motivation of physiotherapists and reduce the risk of professional misconduct in the physiotherapy sector.Problems in clinical physiotherapy training should be addressed by policy-makers, and the preventive effects of physiotherapy interventions deserve more attention.Enhanced participation of physiotherapy stakeholders in relevant legislative processes is recommended to improve their services.

Trend of nutrition research in endocrine disorders, gaps, and future plans: a collection of experiences of an endocrinology research institute

BACKGROUND

Nutrition plays a pivotal role in the prevention and treatment of endocrine disorders. The aim of this study was to provide a window in order to display the 25-year activities of Endocrinology & Metabolism Research Institute (EMRI), and the gaps and future plans in the field of nutrition and endocrine disorders.

METHODS

To collect papers affiliated to the EMRI in field of nutrition from the inception to December 1st 2019, the electronic databases including PubMed/Medline, Web of Science, and Scopus were searched. Publications in English and Persian languages were included. Scientific Landscapes (VOS viewer) software version 1.6.13 was used to provide bibliometric maps.

RESULTS

Of 4082 studies identified in the initial search, 319 relevant papers were included. They contributed systematic review and meta-analysis/review (n = 76), clinical trials (n = 58), cross-sectional (n = 171), case-control studies (n = 11), and animal studies (n = 3). Accordingly, most nutrition studies were dedicated to the level of evidence III (cross-sectional studies: 53.60%) followed by systematic review studies (23.82%) with the level of evidence I. There was also an increasing trend in the nutrition studies through years, with a peak in 2019.

CONCLUSION

An increasing trend in the publications related to nutrition science is observed at EMRI. However, nutrition research and publications can grow further through expanding collaborations with other fields related to endocrine. Given nutritional assessments in national projects and focusing on the identification of preventive nutritional strategies, considering the situations of our society can be helpful to make nutritional findings more practical.

Promoting sustainable physical activity among middle-aged Iranian women: a conceptual model-based interventional study

Background

Physical inactivity enhances the risk of adverse health conditions such as non-communicable diseases, morbidity, and mortality among middle- and older-aged population. This study is aimed to design, implement, and evaluate a conceptual model of physical activity (PA) promotion among middle-aged Iranian women (MAIW).

Methods

An interventional study was conducted with 80 women aged between 30 and 59 years in intervention and control groups during 2018–2019. The subjects referred to health centers were selected by the available convenience sampling method. Data collection tools to assess the MAIW' PA level (metabolic equivalent tasks (MET)-min/week) included face-to-face interviews, body mass index (BMI) measurements, the four-question form of PA vital signs in the framework of Iran's Package of Essential Non-communicable (IraPEN) program, and the questionnaire is based on the Health Belief Model (HBM) constructs.

Results

The intervention led to a three-fold increase in the average PA (from 280.63 to 927.70 MET-min/week) of the intervention group. Although no significant difference in the BMI between both groups was found before the intervention, this educational program decreased the mean BMI from 30.36 to 28.83 kg/m² (p = 0.01). After the intervention, the values of HBM-based perceived sensitivity/severity and self-efficacy were increased from 62.09 to 71.03% and from 27.01 to 83.15%, respectively (p < 0.0001). There were no significant differences in the cue to action and perceived benefits and barriers after the intervention.

Conclusion

The developed model by increasing the motivation of MAIW could remarkably improve the PA level with a decrease in their BMI.

Trial register Iranian Registry of Clinical Trials (IRCT): IRCT20200717048124N1 at 2020-08-05, retrospectively registered.

Pharmacogenomics Implementation and Hurdles to Overcome; In the Context of a Developing Country

Having multiple dimensions, uncertainties and several stakeholders, the costly pharmacogenomics (PGx) is associated with dynamic implementation complexities. Identification of these challenges is critical to harness its full potential, especially in developing countries with fragile healthcare systems and scarce resources. This is the first study aimed to identify most salient challenges related to PGx implementation, with respect to the experiences of early-adopters and local experts' prospects, in the context of a developing country in the Middle East. To perform a comprehensive reconnaissance on PGx adoption challenges a scoping literature review was conducted based on national drug policy components: efficacy/safety, access, affordability and rational use of medicine (RUM). Strategic option development and analysis workshop method with cognitive mapping as the technique was used to evaluate challenges in the context of Iran. The cognitive maps were face-validated and analyzed via Decision Explorer XML. The findings indicated a complex network of issues relative to PGx adoption, categorized in national drug policy indicators. In the rational use of medicine category, ethics, education, bench -to- bedside strategies, guidelines, compliance, and health system issues were found. Clinical trial issues, test's utility, and biomarker validation were identified in the efficacy group. Affordability included pricing, reimbursement, and value assessment issues. Finally, access category included regulation, availability, and stakeholder management challenges. The current study identified the most significant challenges ahead of clinical implementation of PGx in a developing country. This could be the basis of a policy-note development in future work, which may consolidate vital communication among stakeholders and accelerate the efficient implementation in developing new-comer countries.

Iran, sanctions, and the COVID-19 crisis

With an over 80 million population, Iran is the second-largest country in the Middle East. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread over all 31 provinces of Iran, leading to the most cases and death among the Eastern Mediterranean countries. At the same time, Iran is under the United States political and economic sanctions that compromised Iran's health system. Although medicines and basic medical equipment exempted from the economic sanctions, direct and indirect effects of sanctions have restricted Iran's banking system, and consequently has led to a wide range of limitation on trade, manufacturing sector, insurance and ventures. All these circumstances have meant that Iran is restricted to provide the essential basic medical equipment for diagnosis, treatment and prevention of the COVID-19. Although sanctions are not the sole reason for this high rate of mortality and morbidity in a short time period, the chronic and long-term effects of sanctions may be more tangible than their acute impact. In conclusion, providing health services is one of the major problems of Iran's health system during this pandemic that potentially influence on morbidity and mortality of the COVID-19. Iran needs to be free from sanctions for battling against this crisis.Key messagesIran is one of the countries that significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.Iran is under political and economic sanctions that consequently influence on their health system during the COVID-19 crisis.The chronic and long-term effects of sanctions may be more tangible than their acute impact.

Diabetes multimorbidity combinations and disability in the Mexican Health and Aging Study, 2012-2015

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between specific combinations of chronic conditions and disability in Mexican older adults with diabetes.

METHODS

This was a prospective cohort study of Mexican adults (n = 2558) with diabetes and aged 51 or older that used data from the 2012 and 2015 waves of the Mexican Health and Aging Study. The main outcome was an index that measured ability to perform activities of daily living and instrumental activities of daily living. The main independent variables were diabetes multimorbidity combinations, defined as diabetes and at least one other chronic condition. The authors calculated the prevalence of each multimorbidity combination present in the sample in 2012 and used negative binomial regression models to estimate the association of the most prevalent of these combinations with disability incidence in 2015.

RESULTS

The three most prevalent combinations were: 1) diabetes-hypertension (n = 637, 31.9%) 2) diabetes-hypertension-depression (n = 388, 19.4%) and 3) diabetes-depression (n = 211, 10.6%). In fully adjusted models comparing participants with specific multimorbidity combinations to participants with diabetes alone, the combinations that had an increased association with disability were diabetes-hypertension-depression, diabetes-depression and diabetes-hypertension-arthritis-depression. In nested models, the addition of arthritis to combinations including depression increased this association.

CONCLUSIONS

Consistent with prior studies, multimorbidity combinations including depression were associated with increased risk of disability. However, the effect size of this relationship was lower than what had been previously been reported internationally. This highlights the need for globally oriented multimorbidity research.

Untangling the complexity of multimorbidity with machine learning

The prevalence of multimorbidity has been increasing in recent years, posing a major burden for health care delivery and service. Understanding its determinants and impact is proving to be a challenge yet it offers new opportunities for research to go beyond the study of diseases in isolation. In this paper, we review how the field of machine learning provides many tools for addressing research challenges in multimorbidity. We highlight recent advances in promising methods such as matrix factorisation, deep learning, and topological data analysis and how these can take multimorbidity research beyond cross-sectional, expert-driven or confirmatory approaches to gain a better understanding of evolving patterns of multimorbidity. We discuss the challenges and opportunities of machine learning to identify likely causal links between previously poorly understood disease associations while giving an estimate of the uncertainty on such associations. We finally summarise some of the challenges for wider clinical adoption of machine learning research tools and propose some solutions.