Quantifying the effect of population mixing on childhood leukaemia risk: the Seascale cluster

A Historical Survey of Key Epidemiological Studies of Ionizing Radiation Exposure

In this article we review the history of key epidemiological studies of populations exposed to ionizing radiation. We highlight historical and recent findings regarding radiation-associated risks for incidence and mortality of cancer and non-cancer outcomes with emphasis on study design and methods of exposure assessment and dose estimation along with brief consideration of sources of bias for a few of the more important studies. We examine the findings from the epidemiological studies of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors, persons exposed to radiation for diagnostic or therapeutic purposes, those exposed to environmental sources including Chornobyl and other reactor accidents, and occupationally exposed cohorts. We also summarize results of pooled studies. These summaries are necessarily brief, but we provide references to more detailed information. We discuss possible future directions of study, to include assessment of susceptible populations, and possible new populations, data sources, study designs and methods of analysis.

A systematic review of human evidence for the intergenerational effects of exposure to ionizing radiation

PURPOSE

To provide a synthesis of the published evidence pertaining to the intergenerational health effects of parental preconceptional exposure to ionizing radiation in humans.

METHODS

The study populations are the descendants of those who were exposed to ionizing radiation prior to conception. A Boolean search identified publications for review in accordance with Office of Health Assessment and Translation guidelines. Initially, a risk of bias assessment was conducted for each published study and relevant data extracted. Information was organized into adverse health outcome groups and exposure situations. To make an assessment from the body of evidence within each group, an initial confidence rating was assigned, before factors including inconsistencies between studies, magnitude of effect, dose response and confounders were considered. From this, 'an effect', 'no effect' or whether the evidence remained 'inadequate' to determine either effect or no effect, was ascertained. This assessment was based primarily upon the author's conclusions within that evidence-base and, by binomial probability testing of the direction of effect reported.

RESULTS

2441 publications were identified for review which after screening was reduced to 127. For the majority of the adverse health groups, we find there to be inadequate evidence from which to determine whether the health effect was, or was not, associated with parental preconceptional radiation exposure. This was largely due to heterogeneity between individual study's findings and conclusions within each group and, the limited number of studies within each group. We did observe one health grouping (congenital abnormalities) in occupationally exposed populations, where an increase in effect relative to their controls or large magnitude of effects, were reported, although it is noted that the authors of these studies interpreted their findings as most likely not to be associated with parental radiation exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

We find there to be a lack of evidence to enable the formal assessment of radiation-related adverse effects in offspring of exposed humans. This is not the same as there being no clear evidence that effects may occur but does infer that if adverse health effects do arise in children of exposed parents, then these effects are small and difficult to reproducibly measure. Inconsistencies in designing studies are unavoidable, however we highlight the need for an element of standardization and, more sharing of primary datasets as part of open access initiatives, in order for future reviews to make reasonable conclusions. Overall, there is a need for future work to ensure comparable measures between studies where possible.

The Association Between Childhood Leukemia and Population Mixing: An Artifact of Focusing on Clusters?

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Background:

Studies investigating the population-mixing hypothesis in childhood leukemia principally use two analytical approaches: (1) nonrandom selection of areas according to specific characteristics, followed by comparisons of their incidence of childhood leukemia with that expected based on the national average; and (2) regression analyses of region-wide data to identify characteristics associated with the incidence of childhood leukemia. These approaches have generated contradictory results. We compare these approaches using observed and simulated data.

Methods:

We generated 10,000 simulated regions using the correlation structure and distributions from a United Kingdom dataset. We simulated cases using a Poisson distribution with the incidence rate set to the national average assuming the null hypothesis that only population size drives the number of cases. Selection of areas within each simulated region was based on characteristics considered responsible for elevated infection rates (population density and inward migration) and/or elevated leukemia rates. We calculated effect estimates for 10,000 simulations and compared results to corresponding observed data analyses.

Results:

When the selection of areas for analysis is based on apparent clusters of childhood leukemia, biased assessments occur; the estimated 5-year incidence of childhood leukemia ranged between zero and eight per 10,000 children in contrast to the simulated two cases per 10,000 children, similar to the observed data. Performing analyses on region-wide data avoids these biases.

Conclusions:

Studies using nonrandom selection to investigate the association between childhood leukemia and population mixing are likely to have generated biased findings. Future studies can avoid such bias using a region-wide analytical strategy. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B431.

Childhood cancer research in oxford III: The work of CCRG on ionising radiation

BACKGROUND

High doses of ionising radiation are a known cause of childhood cancer and great public and professional interest attaches to possible links between childhood cancer and lower doses, particularly of man-made radiation. This paper describes work done by the Childhood Cancer Research Group (CCRG) on this topic METHODS: Most UK investigations have made use of the National Registry of Childhood Tumours and associated controls. Epidemiological investigations have included national incidence and mortality analyses, geographical investigations, record linkage and case-control studies. Dosimetric studies use biokinetic and dosimetric modelling.

RESULTS

This paper reviews the work of the CCRG on the association between exposure to ionising radiation and childhood cancer, 1975-2014.

CONCLUSION

The work of CCRG has been influential in developing understanding of the causes of 'clusters' of childhood cancer and the risks arising from exposure to ionising radiation both natural and man-made. Some clusters around nuclear installations have certainly been observed, but ionising radiation does not seem to be a plausible cause. The group's work has also been instrumental in discounting the hypothesis that paternal preconception irradiation was a cause of childhood cancers and has demonstrated an increased leukaemia risk for children exposed to higher levels of natural gamma-ray radiation.

Can changes in population mixing and socio-economic deprivation in Cumbria, England explain changes in cancer incidence around Sellafield?

Previously excesses in incident cases of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin lymphoma have been observed amongst young people born or resident in Seascale, Cumbria. These excesses have not been seen more recently. It is postulated that the former apparent increased risk was related to 'unusual population mixing', which is not present in recent years. This study investigated changes in measures of population mixing from 1951-2001. Comparisons were made between three specified areas. Area-based measures were calculated (migration, commuting, deprivation, population density). All areas have become more affluent, although Seascale was consistently the most affluent. Seascale has become less densely populated, with less migration into the ward and less diversity with respect to migrants' origin. There have been marked changes in patterns of population mixing throughout Cumbria. Lesser population mixing has been observed in Seascale in recent decades. Changes in pattern and nature of population mixing may explain the lack of recent excesses.

A case-control study of occupational contact levels in the childhood leukaemia cluster at Seascale, Cumbria, UK

OBJECTIVES

To investigate adult occupational contact levels and risk of childhood leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (LNHL) in Seascale, an association found in other situations of rural population mixing (PM).

DESIGN

Matched case-control study.

SETTING

Seascale, Cumbria, UK.

PARTICIPANTS

For each case of LNHL recorded in patients under age 25 years during 1950-2006, up to 20 matched controls were chosen and parental occupational details obtained; an exception was a single working young adult, whose own occupation (and that of controls) was used.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Contact levels of occupations were categorised as: low/medium (reference group), high or very high contact levels, as in previous studies, with provision for certain unusual occupations. In particular, specialist policemen responsible for security and access at the nearby Sellafield nuclear complex were allocated to the highest contact category, and those Sellafield employees who worked in controlled areas to the middle (high) category. Since of possible bias, unusual contact aspects noted in the main research and development (R&D) building were reserved for a supplementary analysis. ORs were calculated for the occupational contact levels.

RESULTS

Compared to the reference group, the social class adjusted ORs for the high and very high contact categories were 8.18 (95% CI 0.95 to 70.33) and 14.90 (1.20 to 184.90), respectively, with a significant trend across the categories (p value=0.024). In the supplementary analysis with R&D workers moved to the very high contact category, the OR for the latter became 29.68 (2.12 to 415.79), and the p value for trend, 0.011.

CONCLUSIONS

The Seascale LNHL excess was most marked among those young people linked with high occupational contact levels; it is therefore not an exception to the pattern of family infection shown by other PM-related excesses. The findings have implications for the choice of controls in certain types of virus study.

Race/ethnicity and the risk of childhood leukaemia: a case-control study in California

BACKGROUND

We conducted a large registry-based study in California to investigate the association between race/ethnicity and childhood leukaemia focusing on two subtypes: acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) and acute myeloid leukaemia (AML).

METHODS

We obtained information on 5788 cases and 5788 controls by linking California cancer and birth registries. We evaluated relative risk of childhood leukaemia by race and ethnicity of the child and their parents using conditional logistic regression, with adjustment for potential confounders.

RESULTS

Compared with Whites, Black children had lower risk of ALL (OR=0.54, 95% CI 0.45 to 0.66) as well as children of Black/Asian parents (OR=0.31, 95% CI 0.10 to 0.94). Asian race was associated with increased risk of AML with OR=1.643, 95% CI 1.10 to 2.46 for Asian vs Whites; and OR=1.67, 95% CI 1.04 to 2.70 for Asian/Asian vs White/White. Hispanic ethnicity was associated with increased risk of ALL (OR=1.37, 95% CI 1.22 to 1.52). A gradient in risk of ALL was observed while comparing Hispanic children with both parents Hispanic, one parent Hispanic and non-Hispanic children (p Value for trend <0.0001). The highest risk of ALL was observed for children with a combination of Hispanic ethnicity and White race compared with non-Hispanic whites (OR=1.27, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.44). The lowest risk was observed for non-Hispanic blacks (OR=0.46, 95% CI 0.36 to 0.60). Associations for total childhood leukaemia were similar to ALL.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results confirm that there are ethnic and racial differences in the incidence of childhood leukaemia. These differences indicate that some genetic and/or environmental/cultural factors are involved in aetiology of childhood leukaemia.

Updated investigations of cancer excesses in individuals born or resident in the vicinity of Sellafield and Dounreay

BACKGROUND

Earlier studies have shown raised risks of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin lymphoma in children, teenagers and young adults resident either at birth or diagnosis in Seascale. Some increases in cancer risk in these age groups have also been noted among those living around Dounreay. We aimed to update previous analyses relating to areas close to these nuclear installations by considering data from an additional 16 years of follow-up.

METHODS

Cross-sectional analyses compared cancer incidence rates for 1963-2006 among those aged 0-24 years at diagnosis living in geographically specified areas around either Sellafield or Dounreay with general population rates. Cancer incidence for the period 1971-2006 among the cohort of Cumbrian births between 1950 and 2006 was compared to national incidence for 1971-2006 using person-years analysis. Cancer among those born in the postcode sector closest to Dounreay was compared with that among those born in the three adjoining postcode sectors. Analyses considered both cancer overall and ICD-O-3 defined diagnostic subgroups including leukaemia, central nervous system tumours and other malignancies.

RESULTS

Apart from previously reported raised risks, no new significantly increased risks for cancer overall or any diagnostic subgroup were found among children or teenagers and young adults living around either nuclear installation. Individuals born close to the installations from 1950 to 2006 were not shown to be at any increased risk of cancer during the period 1971 to date.

CONCLUSIONS

Analysis of recent data suggests that children, teenagers and young adults currently living close to Sellafield and Dounreay are not at an increased risk of developing cancer. Equally, there is no evidence of any increased cancer risk later in life among those resident in these areas at birth.

Epidemiological evidence of childhood leukaemia around nuclear power plants

A few reports of increased numbers of leukaemia cases (clusters) in children living in the vicinity of nuclear power plants (NPP) and other nuclear installations have triggered a heated debate over the possible causes of the disease. In this review the most important cases of childhood leukaemia clusters around NPPs are described and analyzed with special emphasis on the relationship between the environmental exposure to ionizing radiation and the risk of leukaemia. Since, as indicated, a lifetime residency in the proximity of an NPP does not pose any specific health risk to people and the emitted ionizing radiation is too small to cause cancer, a number of hypotheses have been proposed to explain the childhood leukaemia clusters. The most likely explanation for the clusters is 'population mixing', i.e., the influx of outside workers to rural regions where nuclear installations are being set up and where local people are not immune to pathogens brought along with the incomers.

Residential mobility of populations near UK power lines and implications for childhood leukaemia

Epidemiological studies suggest associations between childhood leukaemia and living near high-voltage power lines, but the most obvious potential causative agent, the magnetic fields produced by the power lines, is not supported by laboratory studies or a known mechanism. An alternative hypothesised explanation is if there is greater population mobility near power lines, linking to the findings of Kinlen that population mixing increases leukaemia rates. We used the names recorded in electoral registers to see whether people near power lines move house more often than the population as a whole. We did find variations, but only small ones, and not such as to support the hypothesis.

Perspectives on the causes of childhood leukemia

Acute leukemia is the most common cancer in children but the causes of the disease in the majority of cases are not known. About 80% are precursor-B cell in origin (CD19+, CD10+), and this immunophenotype has increased in incidence over the past several decades in the Western world. Part of this increase may be due to the introduction of new chemical exposures into the child's environment including parental smoking, pesticides, traffic fumes, paint and household chemicals. However, much of the increase in leukemia rates is likely linked to altered patterns of infection during early childhood development, mirroring causal pathways responsible for a similarly increased incidence of other childhood-diagnosed immune-related illnesses including allergy, asthma, and type 1 diabetes. Factors linked to childhood leukemia that are likely surrogates for immune stimulation include exposure to childcare settings, parity status and birth order, vaccination history, and population mixing. In case-control studies, acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is consistently inversely associated with greater exposure to infections, via daycare and later birth order. New evidence suggests also that children who contract leukemia may harbor a congenital defect in immune responder status, as indicated by lower levels of the immunosuppressive cytokine IL-10 at birth in children who grow up to contract leukemia, as well as higher need for clinical care for infections within the first year of life despite having lower levels of exposure to infections. One manifestation of this phenomenon may be leukemia clusters which tend to appear as a leukemia "outbreak" among populations with low herd immunity to a new infection. Critical answers to the etiology of childhood leukemia will require incorporating new tools into traditional epidemiologic approaches - including the classification of leukemia at a molecular scale, better exposure assessments at all points in a child's life, a comprehensive understanding of genetic risk factors, and an appraisal of the interplay between infectious exposures and the status of immune response in individuals.

Unusual space-time patterning of the Fallon, Nevada leukemia cluster: Evidence of an infectious etiology

The town of Fallon within Churchill County, Nevada exhibited an unusually high incidence of childhood leukemia during the years 1997-2003. We examined the temporal and spatial patterning of the leukemia case homes in comparison to the distribution of the general population at risk, other cancer incidence, and features of land use. Leukemia cases were predominantly diagnosed during the early to mid summer, exhibiting a seasonal bias. Leukemia cases lived outside of the "developed/urban" area of Fallon, predominantly in the "agriculture/pasture" region of Churchill County, circumscribing downtown Fallon. This pattern was different from the distribution of the underlying population (p-value<0.01) and different from the distribution of other cancers, which were evenly distributed when compared to the population (p-value=0.74). The unusual space-time patterning of childhood leukemia is consistent with the involvement of an infectious disease. A possible mode of transmission for such an infectious disease is by means of a vector, and mosquitoes are abundant in Churchill County outside of the urban area of Fallon. This region harbors a US Navy base, and a temporally concordant increase in military wide childhood leukemia rates suggests the base a possible source of the virus. Taken together, our current understanding of the etiology of childhood leukemia, the rural structure combined with temporal and geospatial patterning of these leukemia cases, and the high degree of population mixing in Fallon, suggest a possible infectious cause.

Childhood leukaemia, nuclear sites, and population mixing

The excess of childhood leukaemia (CL) in Seascale, near the Sellafield nuclear reprocessing site in rural NW England, suggested that an epidemic of an underlying infection, to which CL is a rare response, is promoted by marked population mixing (PM) in rural areas, in which the prevalence of susceptibles is higher than average. This hypothesis has been confirmed by 12 studies in non-radiation situations. Of the five established CL excesses near nuclear sites, four are associated with significant PM; in the fifth, the Krummel power station in Germany, the subject has not been thoroughly investigated.

Environmental factors and childhood acute leukemias and lymphomas

This review considers recent studies regarding the role of environmental factors in the etiology of childhood leukemia and lymphoma. Potential environmental risk factors identified for childhood leukemia include exposure to magnetic fields of more than 0.4 micro Tessla, exposure to pesticides, solvents, benzene and other hydrocarbons, maternal alcohol consumption (but only for certain genotypes), contaminated drinking water, infections, and high birth weight. The finding of space-time clustering and seasonal variation also supports a role for infections. There is little evidence linking childhood leukemia with lifetime exposure to ionizing radiation although fetal exposures to X-rays are associated with increased risk. Breast-feeding, consumption of fresh fruit and vegetables and having allergies all appear to be protective. Burkitt lymphoma (BL) is confined to areas of the world where malaria is endemic, with the additional involvement of the Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) as a co-factor. Environmental risk factors suggested for other types of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) include exposure to ionizing radiation (both lifetime and antenatal), pesticides, and, in utero exposure to cigarette smoke, benzene and nitrogen dioxide (via the mother). Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) is especially associated with higher levels of socioeconomic deprivation, but breast-feeding seems to confer lower risk. This is consistent with an infection or immune-response mediated etiology for HL.

What do epidemiologists mean by 'population mixing'?

There is growing evidence that some chronic diseases are caused, or promoted, by infectious disease. 'Population mixing' has been used as a proxy for the range and dose of infectious agents circulating in a community. Given the speculation over the role of population mixing in many chronic diseases, we review the various methods used for measuring population mixing, and provide a classification of these. We recommend that authors fulfill two criteria in publications: measures are demonstrably associated with the putative risk factors for which population-mixing is acting as a proxy and fundamental characteristics of the chosen measures are clearly defined.

Population mixing, socioeconomic status and incidence of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in England and Wales: analysis by census ward

In this population-based study of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) diagnosed among children aged under 15 years in England and Wales during 1986-1995, we analysed incidence at census ward level in relation to a range of variables from the 1991 census, which could be relevant to theories of infectious aetiology. 'Population-mixing' measures, used as surrogates for quantity and diversity of infections entering the community, were calculated from census data on the origins and destinations of migrants in the year before the census. Incidence at ages 1-4 years tended independently to be higher in rural wards, to increase with the diversity of origin wards from which in-migrants had moved during the year before the census, and to be lower in the most deprived areas as categorised by the Carstairs index. This last association was much weaker when urban/rural status and in-migrants' diversity were allowed for. There was no evidence of association with population mixing or deprivation for ALL diagnosed at ages 0 or 5-14 years. The apparent specificity to the young childhood age group suggests that these associations are particularly marked for precursor B-cell ALL, with the disease more likely to occur when delayed exposure to infection leads to increased immunological stress, as predicted by Greaves. The association with diversity of incomers, especially in rural areas, is also consistent with the higher incidence of leukaemia predicted by Kinlen, where population mixing results in below average herd immunity to an infectious agent.

Epidemiological studies of leukaemia in children and young adults around nuclear facilities: a critical review

The existence of an increased risk of childhood leukaemia near nuclear installations is a recurrent issue. A review of the related epidemiological literature is presented here. Results for 198 nuclear sites throughout 10 countries were included in the review. In addition to local studies, 25 multi-site studies have been published for eight countries. A large variability was noticed in the quality of the data as well as in the definition of the study population and in the methods of analysis. Many studies present important limits that make the results difficult to interpret. The review confirms that some clusters of childhood leukaemia cases exist locally. However, results based on multi-site studies around nuclear installations do not indicate an increased risk globally. Many studies were launched to investigate possible origins of the observed clusters around specific sites, but up to now, none of the proposed hypotheses have explained them.

Childhood leukaemia and population movements in France, 1990-2003

In a national study, we investigated the incidence of childhood leukaemia (CL) over a 14-year period in France in relation to several measures based on the proportion of individuals who changed address between the last two national censuses. A positive association was found with the proportion of migrants who came from a distant place. The further the migrants came, the higher was the incidence of leukaemia, particularly among children aged 0-4 years in 'isolated' communes at the time of diagnosis (RR=1.4, 95% CI: 1.1,1.8 in the highest category of migration distance). Although the role of the population density was less obvious, a more marked association was found above a certain threshold. No association with the proportion of commuters was observed.

Evidence of population mixing based on the geographical distribution of childhood leukemia in Ohio

BACKGROUND

This ecologic study examined the geographic distribution of childhood leukemias in Ohio, 1996-2000, among children aged 0-19 for evidence that population mixing may be a factor.

PROCEDURE

(1) State incidence rates were compared to Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) rates for each year and for the 5-year period, 1996-2000; (2) incidence rates for each of Ohio's 88 counties were compared to statewide rates; and (3) county incidence rates were compared based on population density, population growth, and rural/urban locale. SEER*Stat version 5.0 was used to derive age-specific and 0-19 age-adjusted rates. Expected values, standardized incidence ratios (SIRs), and Poisson P-values were calculated with Excel using the indirect method of standardization.

RESULTS

Of the 585 cases, 73.3% were acute lymphocytic leukemia (ALL), 16.6% acute myelogenous leukemia (AML), 3.2% acute monocytic leukemia (AMoL), and 2.6% chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML). Rates for total leukemia burden were significantly below national levels for all races (P = 0.00001), likely due to poor ascertainment of cases. Yearly incidence rates for 1996-2000 were stable for ALL and AML; CML rates declined over the period. Based on 2000 Census and intercensal population estimates for 1996-2000, statistically higher rates for ALL were noted for counties experiencing >10% population change 1990-2000 (P < 0.05), especially for ages 1-4 (P < 0.03) in counties with 10-20% growth. Counties 67.9-99.2% urban experienced fewer than expected cases of AML + AMoL (P < 0.06).

CONCLUSION

Data support Kinlen's theory of population mixing and warrant further studies in Ohio, the US and other countries.

Paternal occupational exposure to electro-magnetic fields as a risk factor for cancer in children and young adults: a case-control study from the North of England

BACKGROUND

Numerous studies have implied that paternal occupational exposures, in particular electromagnetic fields (EMF) and ionizing radiation, may be involved in the etiology of childhood cancers. We investigated whether an association exists between paternal occupations at birth involving such exposures and cancer risk in offspring, using data from the Northern Region Young Persons' Malignant Disease Registry (NRYPMDR).

PROCEDURE

Cases (n=4,723) were matched, on sex and year of birth, to controls from two independent sources: (i) all other patients from the NRYPMDR with a different cancer, (ii) 100 cancer-free individuals per case from the Cumbrian Births Database. An occupational exposure matrix was used to assign individuals to exposure groups.

RESULTS

There was an increased risk of leukemia among the offspring of men employed in occupations likely to be associated with EMF or radiation exposures (OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.02-1.69), particularly in males aged less than 6 years (OR 1.81, 95% 1.19-2.75). No significant association was seen in females. Increased risks were also seen for chondrosarcoma (OR 8.7, 95% CI 1.55-49.4) and renal carcinoma (OR 6.75, 95% CI 1.73-26.0). These associations were consistent between control groups and remained after adjustment for socio-economic status.

CONCLUSIONS

This large case-control study identified a significantly increased risk of leukemia among the offspring of men likely to have been occupationally exposed to EMF, with differing associations between males and females. Increased risks of chondrosarcoma and renal carcinoma were also seen, although based on smaller numbers. Further detailed investigations in this area are required to understand this association.

Residential mobility and risk of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia: an ecological study

We conducted an ecological analysis of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia-incidence data from children ⩽5 years old during 1992–1998 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program in 200 counties and Hawaii. The response variable was the count of cases in each county race–sex stratum, examined in relation to data from the United States Census and the United States Department of Agriculture. The final models for both sexes included race, proportion moved during 1985–1990, and proportion of households with income ⩾$5000 as potential predictors. Incidence was lower among black boys (rate ratio (RR)=0.5) and black girls (RR=0.4) than among other children of the same sex; no other significant racial differences were detected. Incidence was elevated among males (but not females) residing in counties where ⩾50% of the population relocated (RR=1.5) and among females (but not males) residing in counties where <6% of the households had incomes <$5000 (RR=1.5). These sex differences in risk factors were unexpected.

Childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in relation to population mixing around the time of birth in South Hungary

In a retrospective epidemiological study of 481,984 live births in South Hungary, we investigated whether higher levels of population mixing around the time of birth is a risk factor for acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) under age 5 years. Poisson regression was used to investigate the relationship between risk of ALL and the population-mixing index based on the number of incomers in each county district for each year, standardized to have a range of 0-1. Among all children, the risk of ALL increased significantly with increasing population mixing around the time of birth (trend across the range of 0-1 RR = 2.1 95% CI: 1.02-4.44). This effect was more marked for boys (RR = 3.1 95% CI: 1.13-8.51), which supports a sex-specific effect of exposures on risk of ALL.

Childhood leukaemia and ordnance factories in west Cumbria during the Second World War

Much evidence has accumulated that childhood leukaemia (CL) is a rare response to a common, but unidentified, infection and in particular that situations involving the unusual mixing of urban and rural groups (approximating to, respectively, groups infected with, and susceptible to, the relevant microorganism) can produce localised epidemics with consequent increases of the infrequent leukaemic complication. During the Second World War, explosives production factories were built and operated at Drigg and Sellafield, and a shell filling factory at Bootle, in west Cumbria, England, requiring substantial numbers of construction workers to be brought into this remote and isolated area. Following the design of an earlier study of CL near large (post-war) rural construction sites, mortality from this disease was investigated with the help of the Office of National Statistics, in the area around these Cumbrian factories where local workers largely lived, during the construction period and with particular reference to the overlapping construction and operational phase when the mixing of local and migrant workers would have been greatest. An excess of leukaemia deaths at ages 1-14 was found during the construction period (observed 3; observed/expected (O/E) 2.2, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.6, 6.0), which was more marked and statistically significant during the overlap with operations (O 3; O/E 4.5, 95% CI: 1.1, 12.2), especially at ages 1-4 (O 2; O/E 7.1, CI: 1.2, 23.6). A previous investigation did not detect this excess because it considered only a small part of west Cumbria that omitted the communities where most of the workforce lived, having incorrectly attributed the post-war expansion of the village of Seascale (situated between Drigg and Sellafield) to the wartime ordnance factories. The present findings are consistent with the results of the earlier study of rural construction projects and with the general evidence that marked rural-urban population mixing increases the risk of CL.

Population-mixing at the place of residence at the time of birth and incidence of childhood leukaemia in France

The association between the risk of childhood leukaemia before age 7 years and population-mixing at the place of residence at birth was investigated by retrospectively considering all the children born in mainland French communes between 1st January 1990 and 31st December 1998. An increased risk of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia was found with higher levels of migration for children residing at birth in isolated communes with a population density > or =50 people per km2 (SIRR = 2.59, 95% CI: 1.48-4.49). No association was observed with lower population densities. For children residing in non-isolated communes at birth, the results were similar but less marked. The risk tended to increase only for population densities > or =5000 people per km2 (SIRR = 1.57, 95% CI: 0.99-2.52). The findings are consistent with epidemic models and support the hypothesis of an infectious aetiology relating to population-mixing. Population density may be seen as an indicator of the opportunity of contacts between inhabitants and should therefore be taken into account when investigating an infectious hypothesis. This is the first systematic study of population-mixing at the place of residence at the time of birth to be conducted on a national scale.

Infection, immune responses and the aetiology of childhood leukaemia

Childhood leukaemia is the principal subtype of paediatric cancer and, despite success in treatment, its causes remain enigmatic. A plethora of candidate environmental exposures have been proposed, but most lack a biological rationale or consistent epidemiological evidence. Although there might not be a single or exclusive cause, an abnormal immune response to common infection(s) has emerged as a plausible aetiological mechanism.

Socioeconomic status and childhood leukaemia: a review

BACKGROUND

A long-held view links higher socioeconomic status (SES) to higher rates of childhood leukaemia. Some recent studies exhibit associations in the opposite direction.

METHODS

We reviewed journal literature through August 2002 for associations between childhood leukaemia and socioeconomic measures. We determined the direction of each association and its P-value. We described the results with regard to study design, calendar period, geographic locale, and level of the socioeconomic measures (individual or ecological). For measures with sufficient number of results, we computed summary P-values across studies.

RESULTS

Case-control studies conducted in North America since 1980 have involved subject interviews or self-administered questionnaires and have consistently reported inverse (negative) associations of childhood leukaemia with individual-level measures of family income, mother's education, and father's education. In contrast, associations have been consistently positive with father's occupational class in record-based case-control studies and with average occupational class in ecological studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Connections of SES measures to childhood leukaemia are likely to vary with place and time. Validation studies are needed to estimate SES-related selection and participation in case-control studies. Because different socioeconomic measures (such as income and education) and individual-level and ecological-level measures may represent different risk factors, we advise researchers to report these measures separately rather than in summary indices of social class.

Urbanisation and incidence of acute lymphocytic leukaemia among United States children aged 0-4

Acute lymphocytic leukaemia (ALL) incidence among children under 5 years of age was examined, utilising data from 24 United States cancer registries. County-based incidence rates among white children were compared across four levels of urbanisation: large and small metropolitan counties, and adjacent and nonadjacent rural counties. In metropolitan areas, the incidence of ALL was lower among blacks (rate ratio (RR)=0.38, confidence interval (CI)=0.33–0.44) and among Asians/Pacific Islanders (RR=0.78, CI=0.63–0.97) than among whites. Among white children, the incidence of ALL decreased across the four strata of urbanisation, from 67 to 62 to 65 to 54 cases per million person-years at-risk (two-sided trend P=0.009), such that rates were significantly lower in the most remote rural counties than in the most populous metropolitan counties (RR=0.80, 95% CI=0.70–0.91).

An infectious aetiology for childhood acute leukaemia: a review of the evidence

There are three current hypotheses concerning infectious mechanisms in the aetiology of childhood leukaemia: exposure in utero or around the time of birth, delayed exposure beyond the first year of life to common infections and unusual population mixing. No specific virus has been definitively linked with childhood leukaemia and there is no evidence to date of viral genomic inclusions within leukaemic cells. The case-control and cohort studies have revealed equivocal results. Maternal infection during pregnancy has been linked with increased risk whilst breast feeding and day care attendance in the first year of life appear to be protective. There is inconclusive evidence from studies on early childhood infectious exposures, vaccination and social mixing. Some supportive evidence for an infectious aetiology is provided by the findings of space-time clustering and seasonal variation. Spatial clustering suggests that higher incidence is confined to specific areas with increased levels of population mixing, particularly in previously isolated populations. Ecological studies have also shown excess incidence with higher population mixing. The marked childhood peak in resource-rich countries and an increased incidence of the childhood peak in acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) (occurring at ages 2-6 years predominantly with precursor B-cell ALL) is supportive of the concept that reduced early infection may play a role. Genetically determined individual response to infection may be critical in the proliferation of preleukaemic clones as evidenced by the human leucocyte antigen class II polymorphic variant association with precursor B-cell and T-cell ALL.

Incidence of childhood leukaemia in the vicinity of nuclear sites in France, 1990-1998

Overall, 670 cases (O) of childhood leukaemia were diagnosed within 20 km of the 29 French nuclear installations between 1990 and 1998 compared to an expected number (E) of 729.09 cases (O/E=0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI)=[0.85–0.99]). Each of the four areas defined around the sites showed non significant deficits of cases (0–5 km: O=65, O/E=0.87, CI=[0.67–1.10]; 5–10 km: O=165, O/E=0.95, CI=[0.81–1.10]; 10–15 km: O=220, O/E=0.88, CI=[0.77–1.00]; 15–20 km: O=220, O/E=0.96, CI=[0.84–1.10]). There was no evidence of a trend in standardised incidence ratio with distance from the sites for all children or for any of the three age groups studied. Similar results were obtained when the start-up year of the electricity-generating nuclear sites and their electric nuclear power were taken into account. No evidence was found of a generally increased risk of childhood leukaemia around the 29 French nuclear sites under study during 1990–1998.

Infections and immune factors in cancer: the role of epidemiology

An infective, mostly viral, basis has been found in an increasing number of different human cancers. In all cases, the neoplasm is a rare response to the relevant infection, which is usually present in persistent form, and requiring specific cofactors for malignancy to develop. In some cases, epidemiological evidence of infectivity preceded and promoted identification of the specific infection involved and even the discovery of the microbe itself, as in Burkitt's lymphoma and cervix cancer. In other cases, the discovery of the agent came first as in stomach and nasopharynx cancers, and epidemiology has been concerned mainly with confirming the relationship, measuring the size of the risk and identifying cofactors. Infection-linked cancers include some of the commonest malignancies in certain large world regions, amounting to over 20% of all cancer in the developing countries. In addition to these cancers are others such as childhood leukaemia that show features indicative of an infective basis though no underlying agent has been identified. Advances in this field invite speculation about possible future discoveries and how these might be promoted. However, in that majority of cancers that are unrelated to sexual behaviour, there will be nothing even at the population level to suggest an infective basis because what is transmitted from one individual to another is not the neoplasm itself, but the underlying, often silent, infection to which the malignancy is an uncommon response. The increasing prevalence of immune impairment in human populations, as a result of the use of immunosuppressive drugs with organ transplants and the spread of HIV infection, has produced marked effects on cancer incidence in the affected groups including increases, of skin cancers, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and Kaposi's sarcoma and to a lesser extent of many other cancers, in some cases at least due to the release from immunological control of incipient infection-based malignancies.

Childhood leukaemia incidence and the population mixing hypothesis in US SEER data

We evaluated the infectious aetiology hypothesis of childhood leukaemia that rapid population influx into rural areas is associated with increased risk. Using data from the US SEER program, we found that in changes in rural county population sizes from 1980 to 1989 were associated with incidence rates for childhood acute lymphocytic leukaemia (ALL). The observed associations were strongest among children 0-4 years of age, born in the same state as diagnosis, in extremely rural counties, and when counties adjacent to nonrural counties were excluded. Similar analyses for brain and central nervous system (CNS) cancer in children, a disease less linked to this infectious hypothesis, provide evidence against methodologic bias. Similar evaluations for other decades were not meaningful due to limited sample sizes and, perhaps, increased population mobility.

Probability estimates for the unique childhood leukemia cluster in Fallon, Nevada, and risks near other U.S. Military aviation facilities

A unique cluster of childhood leukemia has recently occurred around the city of Fallon in Churchill County, Nevada. From 1999 to 2001, 11 cases were diagnosed in this county of 23,982 people. Exposures related to a nearby naval air station such as jet fuel or an infectious agent carried by naval aviators have been hypothesized as potential causes. The possibility that the cluster could be attributed to chance was also considered. We used data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) to examine the likelihood that chance could explain this cluster. We also used SEER and California Cancer Registry data to evaluate rates of childhood leukemia in other U.S. counties with military aviation facilities. The age-standardized rate ratio (RR) in Churchill County was 12.0 [95% confidence interval (CI), 6.0-21.4; p = 4.3 times symbol 10(-9)]. A cluster of this magnitude would be expected to occur in the United States by chance about once every 22,000 years. The age-standardized RR for the five cases diagnosed after the cluster was first reported was 11.2 (95% CI, 3.6-26.3). In contrast, the incidence rate was not increased in all other U.S. counties with military aviation bases (RR = 1.04; 95% CI, 0.97-1.12) or in the subset of rural counties with military aviation bases (RR = 0.72; 95% CI, 0.48-1.08). These findings suggest that the Churchill County cluster was unlikely due to chance, but no general increase in childhood leukemia was found in other U.S. counties with military aviation bases.

Fathers’ Occupational Contacts and Risk of Childhood Leukemia and Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma

BACKGROUND

There is evidence to suggest that childhood leukemia and non-Hodgkin lymphoma have an infective etiology. We investigated the risk of childhood leukemia and non-Hodgkin lymphoma in relation to paternal occupational contact with other individuals, a surrogate for potential exposure to infection.

METHODS

We carried out a case-control study using 792 cases from the Northern Region Young Persons' Malignant Disease Registry, United Kingdom, 1968-1997, and 2 large population-based control groups. Paternal occupations at birth were classified as having standard, high, or very high levels of contact. Conditional logistic regression was used in the analysis.

RESULTS

There was an increased risk of childhood leukemia and non-Hodgkin lymphoma in those children whose fathers' occupational contacts were high or very high compared with standard (odds ratio = 1.3; 95% confidence interval = 1.0-1.5). The excess risk in the very high group was most pronounced for 245 cases of acute lymphoblastic leukemia aged 2 to 5 years at diagnosis (1.5; 1.1-2.1). The risk with paternal occupational contacts was greater in rural areas, although it was also present in urban areas. The risks of leukemia and non-Hodgkin lymphoma were also higher among the offspring of men employed as policemen, sales representatives, or teachers.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis of an infective etiology for childhood leukemia and non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and they add to the evidence that infections could be transmitted to children by adults.

Comparison of Health and Safety Executive and Cumbrian birth cohort studies of risk of leukaemia/non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in relation to paternal preconceptional irradiation

In 1993, a case-control study by the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) assessed the risk of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (LNHL) among children of fathers employed at the Sellafield nuclear installation in relation to paternal preconceptional irradiation (PPI). It concluded that the statistical association between risk of LNHL and PPI was confined to children born in the village of Seascale, where the dose-response was extremely high and very significant. In contrast, in 2002, a Cumbrian birth cohort study, investigating largely the same cases, concluded that this statistical association was not significantly different among children born inside and outside Seascale and estimated the dose-response inside Seascale to be much lower. This review makes a detailed comparison of the two studies, considering their design, data and analyses. The differences between their findings are due to: (i) differences in the distribution of offspring-years which are differential with respect to dose category and Seascale birth status, (ii) a non-Seascale high-dose case included in the Cumbrian but not the HSE study, (iii) differences between analyses using categorical and continuous PPI dose and (iv) the presence of Seascale controls with PPI over 200 mSv in the Cumbrian but not the HSE study.

Cancer in the offspring of radiation workers: an investigation of employment timing and a reanalysis using updated dose information

An earlier case-control study found no evidence of paternal preconceptional irradiation (PPI) as a cause of childhood leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (LNHL). Although fathers of children with LNHL were more likely to have been radiation workers, the risk was most marked in those with doses below the level of detection. The timing of paternal employment as a radiation worker has now been examined. The previously reported elevated risk of LNHL in the children of male radiation workers was limited to those whose fathers were still radiation workers at conception or whose employment also continued until diagnosis. Children whose fathers stopped radiation work prior to their conception were found to have no excess risk of LNHL. It was not possible to distinguish between the risks associated with paternal radiation work at conception and at the time of diagnosis. A reanalysis of the original study hypothesis incorporating updated dosimetric information gave similar results to those obtained previously. In particular, the risks of LNHL did not show an association with radiation doses received by the father before conception. It seems likely that the increased risk of LNHL among the children of male radiation workers is associated with an increased exposure to some infective agent consequent on high levels of population mixing.

Childhood cancer in relation to infections in the community during pregnancy and around the time of birth

In a retrospective cohort study of 404,106 live births in the northern region of England, 1975-1986, we investigated whether higher levels of community infections during the mother's pregnancy and in early life were risk factors for cancer, by diagnostic group (leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, Hodgkin's disease, brain/spinal tumours, neuroblastoma, other tumours), diagnosed 1975-2001 under age 15 years. Logistic regression was used to relate risk to measures of community infections (measles, respiratory and other infections) in 3 prenatal and 2 postnatal quarters. There was an increased risk of Hodgkin's disease among children exposed around birth to higher levels of measles (odds ratio for trend = 2.3, 95% confidence interval 1.3-4.2, p = 0.01). For other diagnostic groups, there was no consistent evidence of an association between risk and exposure to infections. Although the significant association observed for Hodgkin's disease may be a chance finding, consequent to multiple hypothesis testing or the ecologic nature of the study, it is consistent with other recent epidemiologic results suggesting that the risk of Hodgkin's disease may be associated with exposure to infections.

Childhood solid tumours in relation to population mixing around the time of birth

In a retrospective cohort study of 673 787 live births in the Northern Region of England, 1975-1994, we investigated whether a higher level of population mixing around birth was a risk factor for solid tumours, by diagnostic group (Hodgkin's disease, brain and spinal tumours, neuroblastoma, other solid tumours), diagnosed during 1975-2001 under age 15 years. Logistic regression was used to relate risk to population mixing, based on (i) all movers and (ii) incomers from outside the region. Both ward and county district level analyses were performed. There was a decreased risk of brain and spinal tumours with increasing population mixing based on incomers from outside the region (OR for trend across three categories=0.79, 95% CI: 0.66-0.95, P=0.01 in the ward level analysis). Although this may be because of chance, it is consistent with a role of exposure to infection and immunological response in the aetiology of these tumours. For other tumour groups, there was no consistent evidence of an association between risk and population mixing.

Childhood leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in relation to proximity to railways

We investigated whether living close to railway lines is a risk factor for childhood leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in electoral wards in England and Wales, 1966-1987. The national rail network, 1966-1987, was digitised and the numbers of cases in each ward were related to two measures of environmental exposure to railways: a proximity and a density function, contributions to these functions being weighted by the frequency of use and time in use of each stretch of railway. Poisson regression was used to derive rate ratios in relation to these measures of exposure to railways, both unadjusted and adjusted for population mixing. We found no association between risk of leukaemia and railway proximity (unadjusted rate ratio for trend from the lowest to the median value=1.006, 95% CI: 0.998 - 1.013, P=0.14) and a very small association with railway density, of marginal statistical significance (rate ratio for trend=1.001, 95% CI: 1.000 - 1.003, P=0.05). This effect depended on two deprived, urban wards with high railway density and high population mixing and became nonsignificant (P=0.09) after allowing for population mixing. The very weak association between railway density and risk of childhood leukaemia is likely to be a consequence of the association between population mixing and proximity to railways in very deprived, urban wards.

Childhood leukemia and road traffic: A population-based case-control study

To assess the effect of road traffic exhaust on the risk of childhood leukemia, we carried out a population-based case-control study in the Province of Varese, northern Italy, covered by a population-based cancer registry. All 120 incident cases from 1978-97 were included in the study. Four controls per case, matched by age and gender, were sampled from population files. As index of exposure to traffic exhaust we estimated the annual mean concentration of benzene outside the home using a Gaussian diffusion model. This model uses traffic density (vehicles/day) on nearby main roads, distance between roads and residence, and information on vehicle emissions and weather conditions to estimate benzene concentration. Compared to children whose homes was not exposed to road traffic emissions (<0.1 microg/m(3) of benzene as estimated by the model), the risk of childhood leukemia was significantly higher (relative risk [RR] = 3.91; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.36-11.27) for heavily exposed children (over 10 microg/m(3) estimated annual average). For the intermediate exposure group (0.1-10 microg/m(3)) the relative risk was 1.51 (95% CI = 0.91-2.51). These data, considered with other available evidence, suggest that motor traffic emissions can be involved in the etiology of childhood leukemia.

Childhood solid tumours in relation to infections in the community in Cumbria during pregnancy and around the time of birth

In a retrospective cohort study of all 99 976 live births in Cumbria, 1975-1992, we investigated whether higher levels of community infections during the mother's pregnancy and in early life were risk factors for solid tumours (brain/spinal and other tumours), diagnosed 1975-1993 under age 15 years. Logistic regression was used to relate risk to incidence of community infections in three prenatal and two postnatal quarters. There was an increased risk of brain/spinal tumours among children exposed around or soon after birth to higher levels of community infections, in particular measles (OR for trend=2.1, 95%CI : 1.3-3.6, P=0.008) and influenza (OR for exposure=3.3, 95%CI : 1.5-7.4, P=0.005). There was some evidence of an association between exposure to infections around and soon after birth and risk of other tumours, but this may have been a chance finding. The findings are consistent with other recent epidemiological studies suggesting brain tumours may be associated with perinatal exposure to infections.

Population mixing and leukaemia in young people around the La Hague nuclear waste reprocessing plant

In order to investigate for an association between population mixing and the occurrence of leukaemia in young people (less than 25 years), a geographical study was conducted, for the years 1979 to 1998, in Nord Cotentin (France). This area experienced between the years 1978 and 1992 a major influx of workers for the construction of a nuclear power station and a new nuclear waste reprocessing unit. A population mixing index was defined on the basis of the number of workers born outside the French department of 'La Manche' and living in each 'commune', the basic geographical unit under study. The analyses were done with indirect standardisation and Poisson regression model allowing or not for extra-Poisson variation. Urban 'communes' were considered as the reference population. The Incidence Rate Ratio was 2.7 in rural 'communes' belonging to the highest tertile of population mixing (95% Bayesian credible interval, 95%BCI=1.2-5.9). A positive trend was observed among rural strata with increasing population mixing index (IRR for trend=1.4, 95%BCI=1.1-1.8). The risk became stronger for Acute Lymphoblastic Leukaemia in children 1-6 years old in the highest tertile of population mixing (IRR=5.5, 95%BCI=1.4-23.3). These findings provide further support for a possible infective basis of childhood leukaemia.

Perinatal exposure to infection and risk of childhood leukemia

BACKGROUND

A population-based case-control study was conducted to investigate the association between childhood leukemia and infectious exposures during pregnancy and early neonatal period.

PROCEDURE

Children born and diagnosed with leukemia between 1973 and 1989 in Sweden (578 lymphatic, 74 myeloid) were selected as cases. One control was randomly selected for each case and individually matched by sex, month, and year of birth. Children with Down's syndrome were excluded. Exposure data were blindly abstracted from antenatal, obstetric, and other standardized medical records. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated by conditional logistic regression.

RESULTS

A history of maternal infection was not significantly associated with childhood leukemia, OR = 1.25 (95% CI 0.95-1.65). Maternal lower genital tract infection significantly increased the risk of childhood leukemia, OR = 1.78 (95% CI 1.17-2.72), and especially for children over 4 years of age at diagnosis, OR = 2.01 (95% CI 1.12-3.80). Neonatal infection was not associated with the risk of leukemia. The results remained unaltered after adjustment for potential confounders, and separate analyses for myeloid and lymphoid leukemia.

CONCLUSIONS

We could document an association between exposure to maternal lower genital tract infection in utero, and a subsequent risk for childhood leukemia, which indicate the importance of an early exposure.

Leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in children of male Sellafield radiation workers

Our objective was to investigate if there was (i) an excess risk of leukaemia/non-Hodgkin's lymphoma among children of male radiation workers at the Sellafield nuclear installation in Cumbria, northwest England; (ii) a dose-response relationship between fathers' preconceptional irradiation and their children's risk of leukaemia/non-Hodgkin's lymphoma; and (iii) whether any observed association could be explained by demographic factors. We performed a cohort study of live births, 1950-1991 in Cumbria, followed up to age 25 years or the end of 1991, comparing the risk of leukaemia/non-Hodgkin's lymphoma among all 9,859 children of male radiation workers to that among all 256,851 children of non-Sellafield fathers. Children of radiation workers had a higher risk of leukaemia/non-Hodgkin's lymphoma than other children [rate ratio (RR) = 1.9, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.0-3.1, p = 0.05]. Adjustment for population mixing greatly reduced the excess risk in the village of Seascale, adjacent to Sellafield, but had little effect elsewhere. The risk increased significantly with father's total preconceptional external radiation dose (RR(100mSv) = 1.6, 95% CI 1.0-2.2, p = 0.05). This dose-response was not reduced by adjustment for population mixing. Although our 13 exposed cases included 10 considered previously (Gardner et al., BMJ 1990;300:423-34), we used a cohort rather than a case-control design, with wider temporal and geographic boundaries, and confirmed the statistical association between father's preconceptional irradiation and child's risk of leukaemia/non-Hodgkin's lymphoma that they reported. The possibility remains that paternal preconceptional irradiation may be a risk factor for leukaemia/non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, and this effect may not be confined to Seascale.

Population mixing and childhood leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in census wards in England and Wales, 1966-87

We found an increased risk of childhood leukaemia with higher levels of inward migration, particularly from outside the region (rate ratio=1.9, 95%CI: 1.2-2.9, P<0.01). This significant effect was observed only in urban areas, although a marked but non-significant effect was seen in affluent, rural areas.

Seasonality of birth for cancer in Northern England, UK

Environmental factors operating around the time of birth may influence the subsequent development of childhood cancer, particularly leukaemia. Certain factors may vary with season (e.g. infections), and we therefore investigated whether there was any evidence of seasonality of month of birth, based on data from 4199 children diagnosed with cancer under the age of 15 years. We extracted details of (i) children born 1960-95 and diagnosed 1968-95 from two population-based registries, covering the Northern (n = 2053) and Yorkshire (n = 1977) Regional Health Authority and (ii) children born in Cumbria 1950-93 and diagnosed anywhere in the UK before 1994 from a birth cohort database (n = 397). The following diagnostic categories were analysed: 0-14 years--all cancers, leukaemias, acute lymphoblastic leukaemias, central nervous system tumours, all other solid tumours; 1-6 years--leukaemias, acute lymphoblastic leukaemias. Seasonal variation was tested using Walter and Elwood's test, and logistic regression analysis allowing for cyclical variation in month of birth. No evidence of seasonality was present for any group except acute lymphoblastic leukaemia diagnosed among 1- to 6-year-olds. Seasonal trends varied by region: in the Northern and Cumbrian datasets, seasonality patterns were significant and similar (P < 0.05) with a predicted peak in early spring, whereas in Yorkshire there was less strong evidence of seasonality (P = 0.08) with a peak predicted in late summer. These findings suggest that local seasonal environmental factors operating around the time of birth are not associated with the totality of childhood cancer, but possible links with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia are supportive of a hypothesis of an infectious aetiology.