Gastroschisis prevalence patterns in 27 surveillance programs from 24 countries, International Clearinghouse for Birth Defects Surveillance and Research, 1980-2017

BACKGROUND

Gastroschisis is a serious birth defect with midgut prolapse into the amniotic cavity. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the prevalence and time trends of gastroschisis among programs in the International Clearinghouse for Birth Defects Surveillance and Research (ICBDSR), focusing on regional variations and maternal age changes in the population.

METHODS

We analyzed data on births from 1980 to 2017 from 27 ICBDSR member programs, representing 24 countries and three regions (Europe+ (includes Iran) , Latin America, North America). Cases were identified using diagnostic codes (i.e., 756.7, 756.71, or Q79.3). We excluded cases of amniotic band syndrome, limb-body wall defect, and ruptured omphalocele. Programs provided annual counts for gastroschisis cases (live births, stillbirths, and legally permitted pregnancy terminations for fetal anomalies) and source population (live births, stillbirths), by maternal age.

RESULTS

Overall, gastroschisis occurred in 1 of every 3268 births (3.06 per 10,000 births; 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 3.01, 3.11), with marked regional variation. European+ prevalence was 1.49 (95%CI: 1.44, 1.55), Latin American 3.80 (95%CI: 3.69, 3.92) and North American 4.32 (95%CI: 4.22, 4.42). A statistically significant increasing time trend was observed among six European+ , four Latin American, and four North American programs. Women <20 years of age had the highest prevalence in all programs except the Slovak Republic.

CONCLUSIONS

Gastroschisis prevalence increased over time in 61% of participating programs, and the highest increase in prevalence was observed among the youngest women. Additional inquiry will help to assess the impact of the changing maternal age proportions in the birth population on gastroschisis prevalence.

The descriptive epidemiology of melanoma in Italy has changed - for the better

A recent research project using data from a total of 40 cancer registries has provided new epidemiologic insights into the results of efforts for melanoma control in Italy between the 1990s and the last decade. In this article, the authors present a summary and a commentary of their findings. Incidence increased significantly throughout the study period in both sexes. However, the rates showed a stabilization or a decrease in men and women aged below 35 years. The risk of disease increased for successive cohorts born until 1973 (women) and 1975 (men) while subsequently tending to decline. The trend towards decreasing tumor thickness and increasing survival has continued, but a novel favorable prognostic factor has emerged since 2013 for patients - particularly for males - with thick melanoma, most likely represented by molecular targeted therapies and immune checkpoint inhibitors. Due to this, the survival gap between males and females has been filled out. In the meanwhile, and despite the incidence increase, dermatologists have not lowered their threshold to perform skin biopsy. Skin biopsy rate has increased because of the increasingly greater volume of dermatologic office visits, but the proportion of skin biopsies out of dermatologic office visits has remained constant. In summary, an important breakthrough in melanoma control in Italy has taken place. Effective interventions have been implemented across the full scope of care, which involve many large local populations - virtually the whole national population. The strategies adopted during the last three decades represent a valuable basis for further steps ahead in melanoma control in Italy.

Causes of death in women with breast cancer: a risks and rates study on a population-based cohort

Introduction

The increasing survival of patients with breast cancer has prompted the assessment of mortality due to all causes of death in these patients. We estimated the absolute risks of death from different causes, useful for health-care planning and clinical prediction, as well as cause-specific hazards, useful for hypothesis generation on etiology and risk factors.

Materials and methods

Using data from population-based cancer registries we performed a retrospective study on a cohort of women diagnosed with primary breast cancer. We carried out a competing-cause analysis computing cumulative incidence functions (CIFs) and cause-specific hazards (CSHs) in the whole cohort, separately by age, stage and registry area.

Results

The study cohort comprised 12,742 women followed up for six years. Breast cancer showed the highest CIF, 13.71%, and cardiovascular disease was the second leading cause of death with a CIF of 3.60%. The contribution of breast cancer deaths to the CIF for all causes varied widely by age class: 89.25% in women diagnosed at age <50 years, 72.94% in women diagnosed at age 50-69 and 48.25% in women diagnosed at age ≥70. Greater CIF variations were observed according to stage: the contribution of causes other than breast cancer to CIF for all causes was 73.4% in women with stage I disease, 42.9% in stage II-III and only 13.2% in stage IV. CSH computation revealed temporal variations: in women diagnosed at age ≥70 the CSH for breast cancer was equaled by that for cardiovascular disease and "other diseases" in the sixth year following diagnosis, and an early peak for breast cancer was identified in the first year following diagnosis. Among women aged 50-69 we identified an early peak for breast cancer followed by a further peak near the second year of follow-up. Comparison by geographic area highlighted conspicuous variations: the highest CIF for cardiovascular disease was more than 70% higher than the lowest, while for breast cancer the highest CIF doubled the lowest.

Conclusion

The integrated interpretation of absolute risks and hazards suggests the need for multidisciplinary surveillance and prevention using community-based, holistic and well-coordinated survivorship care models.

Implant replacement and anaplastic large cell lymphoma associated with breast implants: a quantitative analysis

Introduction

Breast implant-associated anaplastic large-cell lymphoma (BIA-ALCL) is a rare form of non-Hodgkin T-cell lymphoma associated with breast reconstruction post-mastectomy or cosmetic-additive mammoplasty. The increasing use of implants for cosmetic purposes is expected to lead to an increase in BIA-ALCL cases. This study investigated the main characteristics of the disease and the factors predicting BIA-ALCL onset in patients with and without an implant replacement.

Methods

A quantitative analysis was performed by two independent researchers on cases extracted from 52 primary studies (case report, case series, and systematic review) published until April 2022 and searched in PubMed, Scopus, and Google-Scholar databases using "Breast-Implant" AND/OR "Associated" AND/OR "Anaplastic-Large-Cell-Lymphoma". The statistical significance was verified by Student's t-test for continuous variables, while Fisher's exact test was applied for qualitative variables. Cox model with time-dependent covariates was used to estimate BIA-ALCL's onset time. The Kaplan-Meier model allowed the estimation of the probability of survival after therapy according to breast implant exposure time.

Results

Overall, 232 patients with BIA-ALCL were extracted. The mean age at diagnosis was 55 years old, with a mean time to disease onset from the first implant of 10.3 years. The hazard of developing BIA-ALCL in a shorter time resulted significantly higher for patients not having an implant replacement (hazard ratio = 0.03; 95%CI: 0.005-0.19; p-value < 0.01). Patients with implant replacement were significantly older than patients without previous replacement at diagnosis, having a median time to diagnosis since the first implant of 13 years (7 years in patients without replacement); anyway, the median time to BIA-ALCL occurrence since the last implantation was equal to 5 years.

Discussion

Our findings suggest that, in BIA-ALCL patients, the implant substitution and/or capsulectomy may delay the disease's onset. However, the risk of reoccurrence in an earlier time should be considered in these patients. Moreover, the time to BIA-ALCL onset slightly increased with age. Selection bias, lack of awareness, misdiagnosis, and limited data availability could be identified as limits of our study. An implant replacement should be considered according to a risk stratification approach to delay the BIA-ALCL occurrence in asymptomatic patients, although a stricter follow-up after the implant substitution should be recommended.

Systematic Review Registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO, identifier: CRD42023446726.

Reproductive and hormonal factors and risk of renal cell carcinoma among women in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition

BACKGROUND

Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) is twice as common among men compared with women, and hormonal factors have been suggested to partially explain this difference. There is currently little evidence on the roles of reproductive and hormonal risk factors in RCC aetiology.

MATERIALS & METHODS

We investigated associations of age at menarche and age at menopause, pregnancy-related factors, hysterectomy and ovariectomy and exogenous hormone use with RCC risk among 298,042 women in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study.

RESULTS

During 15 years of follow-up, 438 RCC cases were identified. Parous women had higher rates of RCC compared with nulliparous women (HR = 1.71, 95% CI 1.18, 2.46), and women who were older at age of first pregnancy had lower rates of RCC (30 years + vs. <20 years HR = 0.53, 95% CI 0.34, 0.82). Additionally, we identified a positive association for hysterectomy (HR = 1.43 95% CI 1.09, 1.86) and bilateral ovariectomy (HR = 1.67, 95% CI 1.13, 2.47), but not unilateral ovariectomy (HR = 0.99, 95% CI 0.61, 1.62) with RCC risk. No clear associations were found for age at menarche, age at menopause or exogenous hormone use.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that parity and reproductive organ surgeries may play a role in RCC aetiology.

A multi-program analysis of cleft lip with cleft palate prevalence and mortality using data from 22 International Clearinghouse for Birth Defects Surveillance and Research programs, 1974-2014

BACKGROUND

Cleft lip with cleft palate (CLP) is a congenital condition that affects both the oral cavity and the lips. This study estimated the prevalence and mortality of CLP using surveillance data collected from birth defect registries around the world.

METHODS

Data from 22 population- and hospital-based surveillance programs affiliated with the International Clearinghouse for Birth Defects Surveillance and Research (ICBDSR) in 18 countries on live births (LB), stillbirths (SB), and elective terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly (ETOPFA) for CLP from 1974 to 2014 were analyzed. Prevalence and survival (survival for LB only) estimates were calculated for total and subclassifications of CLP and by pregnancy outcome.

RESULTS

The pooled prevalence of total CLP cases was 6.4 CLP per 10,000 births. The prevalence of CLP and all of the pregnancy outcomes varied across programs. Higher ETOPFA rates were recorded in most European programs compared to programs in other continents. In programs reporting low ETOPFA rates or where there was no ascertainment of ETOPFA, the rate of CLP among LB and SB was higher compared to those where ETOPFA rates were ascertained. Overall survival for total CLP was 91%. For isolated CLP, the survival was 97.7%. CLP associated with multiple congenital anomalies had an overall survival of 77.1%, and for CLP associated with genetic/chromosomal syndromes, overall survival was 40.9%.

CONCLUSIONS

Total CLP prevalence reported in this study is lower than estimates from prior studies, with variation by pregnancy outcomes between programs. Survival was lower when CLP was associated with other congenital anomalies or syndromes compared to isolated CLP.

Comparison between two cancer registry quality check systems: functional features and differences in an Italian network of cancer registries dataset

Purpose

The aim of this study was to compare the functional characteristics of two computer-based systems for quality control of cancer registry data through analysis of their output differences.

Methods

The study used cancer incidence data from 22 of the 49 registries of the Italian Network of Cancer Registries registered between 1986 and 2017. Two different data checking systems developed by the WHO International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and the Joint Research Center (JRC) with the European Network of Cancer Registries (ENCR) and routinely used by registrars were used to check the quality of the data. The outputs generated by the two systems on the same dataset of each registry were analyzed and compared.

Results

The study included a total of 1,305,689 cancer cases. The overall quality of the dataset was high, with 86% (81.7-94.1) microscopically verified cases and only 1.3% (0.03-3.06) cases with a diagnosis by death certificate only. The two check systems identified a low percentage of errors (JRC-ENCR 0.17% and IARC 0.003%) and about the same proportion of warnings (JRC-ENCR 2.79% and IARC 2.42%) in the dataset. Forty-two cases (2% of errors) and 7067 cases (11.5% of warnings) were identified by both systems in equivalent categories. 11.7% of warnings related to TNM staging were identified by the JRC-ENCR system only. The IARC system identified mainly incorrect combination of tumor grade and morphology (72.5% of warnings).

Conclusion

Both systems apply checks on a common set of variables, but some variables are checked by only one of the systems (for example, checks on patient follow-up and tumor stage at diagnosis are included by the JRC-ENCR system only). Most errors and warnings were categorized differently by the two systems, but usually described the same issues, with warnings related to "morphology" (JRC-ENCR) and "histology" (IARC) being the most frequent. It is important to find the right balance between the need to maintain high standards of data quality and the workability of such systems in the daily routine of the cancer registry.

Global survival trends for brain tumors, by histology: analysis of individual records for 556,237 adults diagnosed in 59 countries during 2000-2014 (CONCORD-3)

BACKGROUND

Survival is a key metric of the effectiveness of a health system in managing cancer. We set out to provide a comprehensive examination of worldwide variation and trends in survival from brain tumors in adults, by histology.

METHODS

We analyzed individual data for adults (15-99 years) diagnosed with a brain tumor (ICD-O-3 topography code C71) during 2000-2014, regardless of tumor behavior. Data underwent a 3-phase quality control as part of CONCORD-3. We estimated net survival for 11 histology groups, using the unbiased nonparametric Pohar Perme estimator.

RESULTS

The study included 556,237 adults. In 2010-2014, the global range in age-standardized 5-year net survival for the most common sub-types was broad: in the range 20%-38% for diffuse and anaplastic astrocytoma, from 4% to 17% for glioblastoma, and between 32% and 69% for oligodendroglioma. For patients with glioblastoma, the largest gains in survival occurred between 2000-2004 and 2005-2009. These improvements were more noticeable among adults diagnosed aged 40-70 years than among younger adults.

CONCLUSIONS

To the best of our knowledge, this study provides the largest account to date of global trends in population-based survival for brain tumors by histology in adults. We have highlighted remarkable gains in 5-year survival from glioblastoma since 2005, providing large-scale empirical evidence on the uptake of chemoradiation at population level. Worldwide, survival improvements have been extensive, but some countries still lag behind. Our findings may help clinicians involved in national and international tumor pathway boards to promote initiatives aimed at more extensive implementation of clinical guidelines.

Trends in Net Survival from Vulvar Squamous Cell Carcinoma in Italy (1990–2015)

(1) Objective: In many Western countries, survival from vulvar squamous cell carcinoma (VSCC) has been stagnating for decades or has increased insufficiently from a clinical perspective. In Italy, previous studies on cancer survival have not taken vulvar cancer into consideration or have pooled patients with vulvar and vaginal cancer. To bridge this knowledge gap, we report the trend in survival from vulvar cancer between 1990 and 2015. (2) Methods: Thirty-eight local cancer registries covering 49% of the national female population contributed the records of 6274 patients. Study endpoints included 1- and 2-year net survival (NS) calculated using the Pohar-Perme estimator and 5-year NS conditional on having survived two years (5|2-year CNS). The significance of survival trends was assessed with the Wald test on the coefficient of the period of diagnosis, entered as a continuous regressor in a Poisson regression model. (3) Results: The median patient age was stable at 76 years. One-year NS decreased from 83.9% in 1990–2001 to 81.9% in 2009–2015 and 2-year NS from 72.2% to 70.5%. Five|2-year CNS increased from 85.7% to 86.7%. These trends were not significant. In the age stratum 70–79 years, a weakly significant decrease in 2-year NS from 71.4% to 65.7% occurred. Multivariate analysis adjusting for age group at diagnosis and geographic area showed an excess risk of death at 5|2-years, of borderline significance, in 2003–2015 versus 1990–2002. (4) Conclusions: One- and 2-year NS and 5|2-year CNS showed no improvements. Current strategies for VSCC control need to be revised both in Italy and at the global level.

Food processing and cancer risk in Europe: results from the prospective EPIC cohort study

BACKGROUND

Food processing has been hypothesised to play a role in cancer development; however, data from large-scale epidemiological studies are scarce. This study investigated the association between dietary intake according to amount of food processing and risk of cancer at 25 anatomical sites using data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study.

METHODS

This study used data from the prospective EPIC cohort study, which recruited participants between March 18, 1991, and July 2, 2001, from 23 centres in ten European countries. Participant eligibility within each cohort was based on geographical or administrative boundaries. Participants were excluded if they had a cancer diagnosis before recruitment, had missing information for the NOVA food processing classification, or were within the top and bottom 1% for ratio of energy intake to energy requirement. Validated dietary questionnaires were used to obtain information on food and drink consumption. Participants with cancer were identified using cancer registries or during follow-up from a combination of sources, including cancer and pathology centres, health insurance records, and active follow-up of participants. We performed a substitution analysis to assess the effect of replacing 10% of processed foods and ultra-processed foods with 10% of minimally processed foods on cancer risk at 25 anatomical sites using Cox proportional hazard models.

FINDINGS

521 324 participants were recruited into EPIC, and 450 111 were included in this analysis (318 686 [70·8%] participants were female individuals and 131 425 [29·2%] were male individuals). In a multivariate model adjusted for sex, smoking, education, physical activity, height, and diabetes, a substitution of 10% of processed foods with an equal amount of minimally processed foods was associated with reduced risk of overall cancer (hazard ratio 0·96, 95% CI 0·95-0·97), head and neck cancers (0·80, 0·75-0·85), oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (0·57, 0·51-0·64), colon cancer (0·88, 0·85-0·92), rectal cancer (0·90, 0·85-0·94), hepatocellular carcinoma (0·77, 0·68-0·87), and postmenopausal breast cancer (0·93, 0·90-0·97). The substitution of 10% of ultra-processed foods with 10% of minimally processed foods was associated with a reduced risk of head and neck cancers (0·80, 0·74-0·88), colon cancer (0·93, 0·89-0·97), and hepatocellular carcinoma (0·73, 0·62-0·86). Most of these associations remained significant when models were additionally adjusted for BMI, alcohol and dietary intake, and quality.

INTERPRETATION

This study suggests that the replacement of processed and ultra-processed foods and drinks with an equal amount of minimally processed foods might reduce the risk of various cancer types.

FUNDING

Cancer Research UK, l'Institut National du Cancer, and World Cancer Research Fund International.

Prevalence and mortality among children with anorectal malformation: A multi-country analysis

PURPOSE

We examined the total prevalence, trends in prevalence, and age-specific mortality among individuals with anorectal malformation (ARM) METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from 24 population- and hospital-based birth defects surveillance programs affiliated with the International Clearinghouse for Birth Defects Surveillance and Research (ICBDSR) from 18 countries and for births from 1974 to 2014. We estimated pooled and program-specific total prevalence per 10,000 total births. Poisson regression was used to assess time trends in prevalence from 2001 to 2012 when most programs contributed data. We calculated selected age-specific proportions of deaths, stratified by case status RESULTS: The pooled total prevalence of ARM was 3.26 per 10,000 total births (95% Confidence Interval = 3.19, 3.32) for birth years 1974-2014. About 60% of cases were multiple or syndromic. Prevalence of multiple, syndromic, and stillborn cases decreased from 2001 to 2012. The first week mortality proportion was 12.5%, 3.2%, 28.3%, and 18.2% among all, isolated, multiple, and syndromic cases, respectively CONCLUSIONS: ARM is relatively rare, with multiple and syndromic cases showing decreasing prevalence during the study period. Mortality is a concern during the first week of life, and especially among multiple and syndromic cases. Our descriptive epidemiological findings increase our understanding of geographic variation in the prevalence of ARM and can be used to plan needed clinical services. Exploring factors influencing prevalence and mortality among individuals with ARM could inform future studies.

Influence of Sex and Age on Site of Onset, Morphology, and Site of Metastasis in Colorectal Cancer: A Population-Based Study on Data from Four Italian Cancer Registries

The prognosis of colorectal cancer is affected by factors such as site of origin, tumor morphology, and metastasis at diagnosis, but also age and sex seem to play a role. This study aimed to investigate within the Italian population how sex and age interact in influencing certain aspects of the disease and how they affect patient survival, particularly in the metastatic cohort. Data from four cancer registries were collected, and patients were classified by sex and age (<50, 50-69, and >69 years). Two separate analyses were conducted: one for patients having right or left colon cancer with adenocarcinoma or mucinous morphology, and one for patients having metastases at diagnosis. Women showed significant differences in right colon cases from the youngest to oldest age group (36% vs. 45% vs. 60%). Men <50 years had a significantly higher mucinous carcinoma percentage than their female counterparts (22% vs. 11%), while in the oldest age group women had the highest percentage (15% vs. 11%). The metastatic pattern differed between men and women and by age. The three-year relative survival in the <50 age group was better for women than men, but this survival advantage was reversed in the oldest group. In conclusion, sex and age are factors that influence the biological and clinical characteristics of colorectal cancer, affecting the metastatic pattern as well as patient survival.

Prognostic Factors across Poorly Differentiated Neuroendocrine Neoplasms: A Pooled Analysis

INTRODUCTION

Poorly differentiated neuroendocrine carcinomas (NECs) are characterized by aggressive clinical course and poor prognosis. No reliable prognostic markers have been validated to date; thus, the definition of a specific NEC prognostic algorithm represents a clinical need. This study aimed to analyze a large NEC case series to validate the specific prognostic factors identified in previous studies on gastro-entero-pancreatic and lung NECs and to assess if further prognostic parameters can be isolated.

METHODS

A pooled analysis of four NEC retrospective studies was performed to evaluate the prognostic role of Ki-67 cut-off, the overall survival (OS) according to primary cancer site, and further prognostic parameters using multivariable Cox proportional hazards model and machine learning random survival forest (RSF).

RESULTS

422 NECs were analyzed. The most represented tumor site was the colorectum (n = 156, 37%), followed by the lungs (n = 111, 26%), gastroesophageal site (n = 83, 20%; 66 gastric, 79%) and pancreas (n = 42, 10%). The Ki-67 index was the most relevant predictor, followed by morphology (pure or mixed/combined NECs), stage, and site. The predicted RSF response for survival at 1, 2, or 3 years showed decreasing survival with increasing Ki-67, pure NEC morphology, stage III-IV, and colorectal NEC disease. Patients with Ki-67 <55% and mixed/combined morphology had better survival than those with pure morphology. Morphology pure or mixed/combined became irrelevant in NEC survival when Ki-67 was ≥55%. The prognosis of metastatic patients who did not receive any treatment tended to be worse compared to that of the treated group. The prognostic impact of Rb1 immunolabeling appears to be limited when multiple risk factors are simultaneously assessed.

CONCLUSION

The most effective parameters to predict OS for NEC patients could be Ki-67, pure or mixed/combined morphology, stage, and site.

Retrospective study of tumors from cattle slaughtered in Lombardy (Italy): preliminary evaluation on the establishment of a bovine cancer registry

Forty‑one tumors were detected in a population of 1,649,003 cattle slaughtered in 4 abattoirs in Lombardy over a 5‑year period, for an overall prevalence of 2.5 tumors per 100,000 cattle. Tumors were classified according to the WHO histological classification of tumors of domestic animals. Alimentary and hemopoietic systems were commonly affected with 9 cases each. Other affected sites were the respiratory (n = 3), urinary (n = 2), endocrine (n = 2), musculoskeletal (n = 2), nervous (n = 1), and cardiovascular (n = 1) systems. The peritoneum was affected by 6 cases, while the primary location of 3 tumors of the connective tissues and 3 metastatic carcinomas was unidentified. Liver tumors and mesotheliomas, for which environmental risk factors are well‑known in humans, were common, as well as tumors typically encountered in pediatric human patients (tumors of mesenchymal tissues, pulmonary blastomas and nephroblastomas). These findings suggest the useful role of bovines as sentinel and model for human carcinogenesis. Our study indicates that the establishment of a bovine cancer registry in Lombardy is feasible considering its potential contribution to understanding the role of environmental risk factors in the genesis of tumors in animals and humans.

Cigarette Smoking and Endometrial Cancer Risk: Observational and Mendelian Randomization Analyses

BACKGROUND

Current epidemiologic evidence indicates that smoking is associated with a lower endometrial cancer risk. However, it is unknown if this association is causal or confounded. To further elucidate the role of smoking in endometrial cancer risk, we conducted complementary observational and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses.

METHODS

The observational analyses included 286,415 participants enrolled in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition and 179,271 participants in the UK Biobank, and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used. In two-sample MR analyses, genetic variants robustly associated with lifetime amount of smoking (n = 126 variants) and ever having smoked regularly (n = 112 variants) were selected and their association with endometrial cancer risk (12,906 cancer/108,979 controls from the Endometrial Cancer Association Consortium) was examined.

RESULTS

In the observational analysis, lifetime amount of smoking and ever having smoked regularly were associated with a lower endometrial cancer risk. In the MR analysis accounting for body mass index, a genetic predisposition to a higher lifetime amount of smoking was not associated with endometrial cancer risk (OR per 1-SD increment: 1.15; 95% confidence interval: 0.91-1.44). Genetic predisposition to ever having smoked regularly was not associated with risk of endometrial cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Smoking was inversely associated with endometrial cancer in the observational analyses, although unsupported by the MR. Additional studies are required to better understand the possible confounders and mechanisms underlying the observed associations between smoking and endometrial cancer.

IMPACT

The results from this analysis indicate that smoking is unlikely to be causally linked with endometrial cancer risk.

An Epidemiological Study to Investigate Links between Atmospheric Pollution from Farming and SARS-CoV-2 Mortality

Exposure to atmospheric particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide has been linked to SARS-CoV-2 infection and death. We hypothesized that long-term exposure to farming-related air pollutants might predispose to an increased risk of COVID-19-related death. To test this hypothesis, we performed an ecological study of five Italian Regions (Piedmont, Lombardy, Veneto, Emilia-Romagna and Sicily), linking all-cause mortality by province (administrative entities within regions) to data on atmospheric concentrations of particulate matter (PM_2.5 and PM₁₀) and ammonia (NH₃), which are mainly produced by agricultural activities. The study outcome was change in all-cause mortality during March-April 2020 compared with March-April 2015-2019 (period). We estimated all-cause mortality rate ratios (MRRs) by multivariate negative binomial regression models adjusting for air temperature, humidity, international import-export, gross domestic product and population density. We documented a 6.9% excess in MRR (proxy for COVID-19 mortality) for each tonne/km² increase in NH₃ emissions, explained by the interaction of the period variable with NH₃ exposure, considering all pollutants together. Despite the limitations of the ecological design of the study, following the precautionary principle, we recommend the implementation of public health measures to limit environmental NH₃ exposure, particularly while the COVID-19 pandemic continues. Future studies are needed to investigate any causal link between COVID-19 and farming-related pollution.

Molecular Subtypes, Metastatic Pattern and Patient Age in Breast Cancer: An Analysis of Italian Network of Cancer Registries (AIRTUM) Data

Breast cancer stage at diagnosis, patient age and molecular tumor subtype influence disease progression. The aim of this study was to analyze the relationships between these factors and survival in breast cancer patients among the Italian population using data from the AIRTUM national database. We enrolled women with primary breast cancer from 17 population-based cancer registries. Patients were subdivided into older (>69 years), middle (50–69 years) and younger age groups (<50 years) and their primary tumors categorized into four molecular subtypes based on hormone receptor (HR) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status. There were 8831 patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2012 included. The most represented age group was 50–69 years (41.7%). In 5735 cases the molecular subtype was identified: HER2–/HR+ was the most frequent (66.2%) and HER2+/HR− the least (6.2%). Of the 390 women with metastases at diagnosis, 38% had simultaneous involvement of multiple sites, independent of age and molecular profile. In women with a single metastatic site, bone (20% of cases), liver (11%), lung (7%) and brain (3%) were the most frequent. In the studied age groups with different receptor expression profiles, the tumor metastasized to target organs with differing frequencies, affecting survival. Five-year survival was lowest in women with triple-negative (HER2−/HR–) tumors and women with brain metastases at diagnosis.

Risk of thyroid as a first or second primary cancer. A population-based study in Italy, 1998-2012

BACKGROUND

The number of patients living after a cancer diagnosis is increasing, especially after thyroid cancer (TC). This study aims at evaluating both the risk of a second primary cancer (SPC) in TC patients and the risk of TC as a SPC.

METHODS

We analyzed two population-based cohorts of individuals with TC or other neoplasms diagnosed between 1998 and 2012, in 28 Italian areas covered by population-based cancer registries. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) of SPC were stratified by sex, age, and time since first cancer.

RESULTS

A total of 38,535 TC patients and 1,329,624 patients with other primary cancers were included. The overall SIR was 1.16 (95% CI: 1.12-1.21) for SPC in TC patients, though no increase was shown for people with follicular (1.06) and medullary (0.95) TC. SPC with significantly increased SIRs was bone/soft tissue (2.0), breast (1.2), prostate (1.4), kidney (2.2), and hemolymphopoietic (1.4) cancers. The overall SIR for TC as a SPC was 1.49 (95% CI: 1.42-1.55), similar for all TC subtypes, and it was significantly increased for people diagnosed with head and neck (2.1), colon-rectum (1.4), lung (1.8), melanoma (2.0), bone/soft tissue (2.8), breast (1.3), corpus uteri (1.4), prostate (1.5), kidney (3.2), central nervous system (2.3), and hemolymphopoietic (1.8) cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

The increased risk of TC after many other neoplasms and of few SPC after TC questions the best way to follow-up cancer patients, avoiding overdiagnosis and overtreatment for TC and, possibly, for other malignancies.

Excess risk of subsequent malignant neoplasms in adolescent and young adult cancer survivors: Results from the first Italian population-based cohort

BACKGROUND

Evidence about late effects in adolescent and young adult (AYA) cancer survivors is scarce. This study assessed the risk of subsequent malignant neoplasms (SMNs) to identify the most common SMNs to be considered in follow-up care.

METHODS

Population-based cancer registries retrospectively identified first primary tumors (between 1976 and 2013) and SMNs in AYAs (15-39 years old at their cancer diagnosis). AYA cancer survivors were those alive at least 5 years after their first cancer diagnosis. The excess risk of SMNs was measured as standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and absolute excess risk together with the cumulative incidence of SMNs.

RESULTS

The cohort included 67,692 AYA cancer survivors. The excess risk of developing any SMN (SIR, 1.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.5-1.7) was 60%. The excess risk of SMNs was significantly high for survivors of lymphomas; cancers of the breast, thyroid, female genital tract, digestive organs, gonads, and urinary tract; and melanomas. The cumulative incidence of all SMNs in AYA cancer survivors within 25 years of their first cancer diagnosis was approximately 10%. Subsequent tumors contributing to approximately 60% of all SMNs were breast cancer, colorectal cancer, corpus uteri cancer, and ovarian cancer in females and colorectal cancer, bladder cancer, prostate cancer, lung cancer, and lymphomas in males.

CONCLUSIONS

These results highlight the need to personalize follow-up strategies for AYA cancer survivors.

Municipality Data as a Rapid and Effective Tool to Analyse Spatial and Temporal Variations of All-Cause Mortality by Town District: The Experience in Genoa (Italy)

The main objective of this study was to analyse the space-time epidemiological differences by sex during the 2009-2020 period in the total mortality recorded among residents in each of the 25 districts of the Genoa municipality, net of the age effect. The analysis was based on official statistical data relating to total mortality and on the resident population. An estimate of the expected deaths was made to calculate the sex-specific age-standardised mortality ratio (SMR). The temporal trends and age-standardized death rates (SDRs) with respect to those of the European population specific to sex and calendar year were identified for each district. Over the entire observation period, the SMR for males ranged from 124.4 (Cornigliano) to 82.0 (Albaro); for females, the values ranged between 133.4 (Cornigliano) and 85.6 (Nervi-Quinto-S. Ilario). Between 2019 and 2020, Genoa recorded an increase in SDR of 24.5%, more pronounced in males (+26.7%) than in females (+22.4%). This epidemiological methodology is replicable and allows to quickly identify spatial, temporal, sex, and age differences in the general mortality within a municipality.

Associations between dietary amino acid intakes and blood concentration levels

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Emerging evidence suggests a role of amino acids (AAs) in the development of various diseases including renal failure, liver cirrhosis, diabetes and cancer. However, mechanistic pathways and the effects of dietary AA intakes on circulating levels and disease outcomes are unclear. We aimed to compare protein and AA intakes, with their respective blood concentrations in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort.

METHODS

Dietary protein and AA intakes were assessed via the EPIC dietary questionnaires (DQ) and 24-h dietary recalls (24-HDR). A subsample of 3768 EPIC participants who were free of cancer had blood AA concentrations measured. To investigate how circulating levels relate to their respective intakes, dietary AA intake was examined in quintiles and ANOVA tests were run. Pearson correlations were examined for continous associations between intakes and blood concentrations.

RESULTS

Dietary AA intakes (assessed with the DQ) and blood AA concentrations were not strongly correlated (-0.15 ≤ r ≤ 0.17) and the direction of the correlations depended on AA class: weak positive correlations were found for most essential AAs (isoleucine, leucine, lysine, methionine, threonine, tryptophan, and valine) and conditionally essential AAs (arginine and tyrosine), while negative associations were found for non-essential AAs. Similar results were found when using the 24-HDR. When conducting ANOVA tests for essential AAs, higher intake quintiles were linked to higher blood AA concentrations, except for histidine and phenylalanine. For non-essential AAs and glycine, an inverse relationship was observed. Conditionally-essential AAs showed mixed results.

CONCLUSIONS

Weak positive correlations and dose responses were found between most essential and conditionally essential AA intakes, and blood concentrations, but not for the non-essential AAs. These results suggest that intake of dietary AA might be related to physiological AA status, particularly for the essential AAs. However, these results should be further evaluated and confirmed in large-scale prospective studies.

Survival of infants born with esophageal atresia among 24 international birth defects surveillance programs

BACKGROUND

Esophageal atresia (EA) affects around 2.3-2.6 per 10,000 births world-wide. Infants born with this condition require surgical correction soon after birth. Most survival studies of infants with EA are locally or regionally based. We aimed to describe survival across multiple world regions.

METHODS

We included infants diagnosed with EA between 1980 and 2015 from 24 birth defects surveillance programs that are members of the International Clearinghouse for Birth Defects Surveillance and Research. We calculated survival as the proportion of liveborn infants alive at 1 month, 1- and 5-years, among all infants with EA, those with isolated EA, those with EA and additional anomalies or EA and a chromosomal anomaly or genetic syndrome. We also investigated trends in survival over the decades, 1980s-2010s.

RESULTS

We included 6,466 liveborn infants with EA. Survival was 89.4% (95% CI 88.1-90.5) at 1-month, 84.5% (95% CI 83.0-85.9) at 1-year and 82.7% (95% CI 81.2-84.2) at 5-years. One-month survival for infants with isolated EA (97.1%) was higher than for infants with additional anomalies (89.7%) or infants with chromosomal or genetic syndrome diagnoses (57.3%) with little change at 1- and 5-years. Survival at 1 month improved from the 1980s to the 2010s, by 6.5% for infants with isolated EA and by 21.5% for infants with EA and additional anomalies.

CONCLUSIONS

Almost all infants with isolated EA survived to 5 years. Mortality was higher for infants with EA and an additional anomaly, including chromosomal or genetic syndromes. Survival improved from the 1980s, particularly for those with additional anomalies.

Risk Prediction for Renal Cell Carcinoma: Results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Early detection of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) has the potential to improve disease outcomes. No screening program for sporadic RCC is in place. Given relatively low incidence, screening would need to focus on people at high risk of clinically meaningful disease so as to limit overdiagnosis and screen-detected false positives.

METHODS

Among 192,172 participants from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort (including 588 incident RCC cases), we evaluated a published RCC risk prediction model (including age, sex, BMI, and smoking status) in terms of discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (observed probability as a function of predicted probability). We used a flexible parametric survival model to develop an expanded model including age, sex, BMI, and smoking status, with the addition of self-reported history of hypertension and measured blood pressure.

RESULTS

The previously published model yielded well-calibrated probabilities and good discrimination (C-statistic [95% CI]: 0.699 [0.679-0.721]). Our model had slightly improved discrimination (0.714 [0.694-0.735], bootstrap optimism-corrected C-statistic: 0.709). Despite this good performance, predicted risk was low for the vast majority of participants, with 70% of participants having 10-year risk less than 0.0025.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the models performed well for the prediction of incident RCC, they are currently insufficiently powerful to identify individuals at substantial risk of RCC in a general population.

IMPACT

Despite the promising performance of the EPIC RCC risk prediction model, further development of the model, possibly including biomarkers of risk, is required to enable risk stratification of RCC.

Metabolic perturbations prior to hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosis: Findings from a prospective observational cohort study

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development entails changes in liver metabolism. Current knowledge on metabolic perturbations in HCC is derived mostly from case-control designs, with sparse information from prospective cohorts. Our objective was to apply comprehensive metabolite profiling to detect metabolites whose serum concentrations are associated with HCC development, using biological samples from within the prospective European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort (>520 000 participants), where we identified 129 HCC cases matched 1:1 to controls. We conducted high-resolution untargeted liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry-based metabolomics on serum samples collected at recruitment prior to cancer diagnosis. Multivariable conditional logistic regression was applied controlling for dietary habits, alcohol consumption, smoking, body size, hepatitis infection and liver dysfunction. Corrections for multiple comparisons were applied. Of 9206 molecular features detected, 220 discriminated HCC cases from controls. Detailed feature annotation revealed 92 metabolites associated with HCC risk, of which 14 were unambiguously identified using pure reference standards. Positive HCC-risk associations were observed for N1-acetylspermidine, isatin, p-hydroxyphenyllactic acid, tyrosine, sphingosine, l,l-cyclo(leucylprolyl), glycochenodeoxycholic acid, glycocholic acid and 7-methylguanine. Inverse risk associations were observed for retinol, dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate, glycerophosphocholine, γ-carboxyethyl hydroxychroman and creatine. Discernible differences for these metabolites were observed between cases and controls up to 10 years prior to diagnosis. Our observations highlight the diversity of metabolic perturbations involved in HCC development and replicate previous observations (metabolism of bile acids, amino acids and phospholipids) made in Asian and Scandinavian populations. These findings emphasize the role of metabolic pathways associated with steroid metabolism and immunity and specific dietary and environmental exposures in HCC development.

A multi-country study of prevalence and early childhood mortality among children with omphalocele

BACKGROUND

Omphalocele is the second most common abdominal birth defect and often occurs with other structural and genetic defects. The objective of this study was to determine omphalocele prevalence, time trends, and mortality during early childhood, by geographical region, and the presence of associated anomalies.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study with 23 birth defect surveillance systems in 18 countries who are members of the International Clearinghouse for Birth Defects Surveillance and Research that submitted data on cases ascertained from 2000 through 2012, approximately 16 million pregnancies were surveyed that resulted in live births, stillbirths, or elective terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomalies (ETOPFA) and cases with omphalocele were included. Overall prevalence and mortality rates for specific ages were calculated (day of birth, neonatal, infant, and early childhood). We used Kaplan-Meier estimates with 95% confidence intervals (CI) to calculate cumulative mortality and joinpoint regression for time trend analyses.

RESULTS

The prevalence of omphalocele was 2.6 per 10,000 births (95% CI: 2.5, 2.7) and showed no temporal change from 2000-2012 (average annual percent change = -0.19%, p = .52). The overall mortality rate was 32.1% (95% CI: 30.2, 34.0). Most deaths occurred during the neonatal period and among children with multiple anomalies or syndromic omphalocele. Prevalence and mortality varied by registry type (e.g., hospital- vs. population-based) and inclusion or exclusion of ETOPFA.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of omphalocele showed no temporal change from 2000-2012. Approximately one-third of children with omphalocele did not survive early childhood with most deaths occurring in the neonatal period.

Circulating bilirubin levels and risk of colorectal cancer: serological and Mendelian randomization analyses

BACKGROUND

Bilirubin, a byproduct of hemoglobin breakdown and purported anti-oxidant, is thought to be cancer preventive. We conducted complementary serological and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to investigate whether alterations in circulating levels of bilirubin are associated with risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). We decided a priori to perform analyses separately in men and women based on suggestive evidence that associations may differ by sex.

METHODS

In a case-control study nested in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), pre-diagnostic unconjugated bilirubin (UCB, the main component of total bilirubin) concentrations were measured by high-performance liquid chromatography in plasma samples of 1386 CRC cases and their individually matched controls. Additionally, 115 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) robustly associated (P < 5 × 10-8) with circulating total bilirubin were instrumented in a 2-sample MR to test for a potential causal effect of bilirubin on CRC risk in 52,775 CRC cases and 45,940 matched controls in the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium (GECCO), the Colon Cancer Family Registry (CCFR), and the Colorectal Transdisciplinary (CORECT) study.

RESULTS

The associations between circulating UCB levels and CRC risk differed by sex (Pheterogeneity = 0.008). Among men, higher levels of UCB were positively associated with CRC risk (odds ratio [OR] = 1.19, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.04-1.36; per 1-SD increment of log-UCB). In women, an inverse association was observed (OR = 0.86 (0.76-0.97)). In the MR analysis of the main UGT1A1 SNP (rs6431625), genetically predicted higher levels of total bilirubin were associated with a 7% increase in CRC risk in men (OR = 1.07 (1.02-1.12); P = 0.006; per 1-SD increment of total bilirubin), while there was no association in women (OR = 1.01 (0.96-1.06); P = 0.73). Raised bilirubin levels, predicted by instrumental variables excluding rs6431625, were suggestive of an inverse association with CRC in men, but not in women. These differences by sex did not reach formal statistical significance (Pheterogeneity ≥ 0.2).

CONCLUSIONS

Additional insight into the relationship between circulating bilirubin and CRC is needed in order to conclude on a potential causal role of bilirubin in CRC development.

Mid-term trends and recent birth-cohort-dependent changes in incidence rates of cutaneous malignant melanoma in Italy

In Oceania, North America and north-western Europe, after decades of increase, cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) rates began to stabilise or decline before 2000. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the reversal of the incidence trend is extending to southern Europe. To obtain a formal confirmation, this nationwide study from Italy investigated the incidence trends by birth cohort. Twenty-one local cancer registries covering a population of 15 814 455 provided incidence data for primary CMM registered between 1994 and 2013. Trends in age-standardised rates were analysed using joinpoint regression models and age-period-cohort models. Age-standardised incidence showed a consistent increase throughout the period (estimated annual percent change, 3.6 [95% confidence interval, 3.2-4.0] among men and 2.5 [2.0-3.1] among women). This pattern was confirmed by a sensitivity analysis with removal of low-risk populations of southern Italy. The rates, however, showed a stabilisation or a decrease in men and women aged below 35. Using the cohort of 1949-the median cohort with respect to the number of cases for both genders-as a reference, the incidence rate ratio increased for successive cohorts born until 1973 (women) and 1975 (men), and subsequently tended to decline. For the most recent cohorts in both genders, the risk of disease returned to the level of the cohort of 1949. The changes observed in the latest generations can be interpreted as the earliest manifestations of a birth-cohort-dependent incidence decrease. Our study adds to previous data indicating that the reversal of the long-term upward incidence trend of CMM is extending to southern Europe.

Impact of Rhabdomyosarcoma Treatment Modalities by Age in a Population-Based Setting

Purpose: Rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS) has a worse prognosis in adults than in children, but there is evidence of a better outcome in the former if treated using a pediatric-like approach. This study describes treatment for RMS in patients more than 10 years old and examines to what extent treatment contributes to explain the different age-related survival observed and to what extent treatment centers impact treatment appropriateness. Methods: A retrospective population-based study was developed considering 104 RMS cases (excluding the pleomorphic subtype) diagnosed in Italy between 2000 and 2015. Patients were grouped by age (10-19 vs. 20-60 years old) and scored according to whether or not their chemotherapy was consistent with the schemes used in pediatric protocols (score 1 = chemotherapy in line with pediatric protocols). Treatment centers were grouped according to whether or not they have a pediatric-dedicated unit affiliated to the national pediatric oncology network (Associazione Italiana Ematologia Oncologia Pediatrica [AIEOP]). Results: Older patients were more likely to have tumors at unfavorable sites (p = 0.045). A treatment score of 1 was assigned to 85% of younger patients, but only to 32% of older patients (p < 0.001). Furthermore, the proportion of score 1 was higher in younger patients treated in centers with an AIEOP Unit. A multivariate model confirmed age as a significant prognostic factor (Hazard rate ratio [HR] = 2.06; p = 0.04) and showed a significant impact of treatment on survival (HR = 2.13; p = 0.03). Conclusions: Adult RMS patients are still relatively unlikely to be treated with pediatric protocols and in centers with a pediatric oncology expertise. This may explain the survival gap between older and younger patients.

An application of the Toronto Childhood Cancer Stage Guidelines in three population-based cancer registries: The case of central nervous tumors

BACKGROUND

Cancer stage is a determinant of survival of childhood central nervous system (CNS) cancers and could help the interpretation of survival variability among countries. Consensus guidelines to stage childhood malignancies in population cancer registries ("Toronto Childhood Cancer Stage Guidelines") have been recently proposed with the goal of data comparability. Indeed, stage is not systematically recorded in all registries and, when it is, different classification systems are used. We applied the Toronto Childhood Cancer Stage Guidelines to CNS cancer cases of three population-based cancer registries with the aim of evaluating the feasibility of staging this type of cancer and the critical points in the classification of CNS tumors.

PROCEDURES

The Toronto Childhood Cancer Stage Guidelines were applied to 175 CNS patients, diagnosed from January 1, 2002 to December 31, 2014 in three cancer registries in Italy, and the percentage of cases that could be staged was assessed.

RESULTS

One hundred eight of 126 (86%) medulloblastomas and other embryonal CNS cancers and 22 of 49 (45%) ependymomas were staged. Using these guidelines, survival of children with localized tumors could be discriminated from that of children with metastatic disease.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of the Toronto Childhood Cancer Stage Guidelines is feasible for staging medulloblastoma in Italian population-based cancer registries, whereas it is more difficult for ependymomas. In Italy, cerebrospinal fluid examination, one of the decisive tests to stage CNS tumors, is not routinely performed as a first-line diagnosis procedure in ependymoma pediatric patients. A similar exercise by a larger number of cancer registries in different countries could suggest improvements in the childhood cancer staging system.

Treatment patterns among patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma: An Italian, population-based nationwide study

Background

Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is a rare cancer with a poor prognosis. Centralization of rare cancer in dedicated centers is recommended to ensure expertise, multidisciplinarity and access to innovation. In Italy, expert centers for MPM have not been identified in all regions. We aimed to describe the treatment patterns among MPM patients across different Italian regions and to identify factors associated with the treatment patterns across the regions.

Methods

We performed an observational study on a random sample of 2026 MPM patients diagnosed in 2003–2008. We included 26 population‐based registries covering 70% of the Italian population. To identify factors associated with treatment patterns, across the different regions, we fitted a multinomial logistic regression model adjusted by age, sex, stage, histology and hospital with thoracic surgical department.

Results

MPM patients mostly received chemotherapy alone (41%) or no cancer‐directed therapy (36%) especially the older patients. The first course of treatment for MPM patients differed across regions. Patients from Piedmont, Liguria and Campania were more likely to receive no cancer‐directed therapy; those living in Tuscany and Sicily were more likely to get surgery; patients from Marche and Lazio were more likely to receive chemotherapy. These differences were not explained by age, sex, stage, histology and availability of a thoracic surgery department.

Conclusions

There is limited expertise available and lack of a network able to maximize the expertise available may contribute to explaining the results of our study. Our findings support the need to ensure the appropriate care of all MPM patients in reorganizing the health care services.

Key points

Adolescent and Young Adult Cancer Survivors: Design and Characteristics of the First Nationwide Population-Based Cohort in Italy

Purpose: Adolescent and young adult (AYA, 15-39 years) cancer survivors (alive at least 5 years after cancer diagnosis) are less studied than younger and older cancer survivors and research on their late effects is limited. To facilitate research on long-term outcomes of AYA cancer survivors, we established, in Italy, a population-based AYA cancer survivors' cohort. This article describes the study design and main characteristics of this cohort. Methods: The cohort derives from population-based cancer registries (CRs). Each CR identified AYA cancer patients retrospectively. Treatment for first primary cancer and all health events from diagnosis to death can be traced through linkage with available health databases, such as hospital discharge records (HDRs), mortality files, and outpatient and pharmaceutical databases. Results: Thirty-four CRs participated to the cohort which overall includes 93,291 AYAs with cancer and 67,692 cancer survivors. First primary cancer distribution in AYA cancer survivors differs by sex and age groups because of the different cancer types diagnosed in AYAs. Almost 78% of AYA cancer survivors have HDRs and 14.8% also pharmaceutical and outpatient databases. Conclusion: This cohort will be used to study, for the first time in Italy, the pattern and excess risk of late effects in AYA cancer survivors. HDRs, outpatient and pharmaceutical databases will be used to define primary treatment to assess its impact on AYA cancer survivors' late effects. This cohort exploiting data sources already available at CRs, minimize the data collection effort and it will contribute to assess the feasibility of using administrative database to study cancer survivors' late effects.

Incidence trends of vulvar squamous cell carcinoma in Italy from 1990 to 2015

OBJECTIVE

The incidence of vulvar squamous cell carcinoma has increased for decades in most Western countries - a trend virtually restricted to women aged <50 or 60 years. In southern Europe, conversely, the trends have been insufficiently studied. This article reports a study from Italy.

METHOD

Thirty-eight local cancer registries, currently covering 15,274,070 women, equivalent to 49.2% of the Italian national female population, participated. Invasive cancers registered between 1990 and 2015 with an International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, 3rd revision, topography code C51 and morphology codes compatible with vulvar squamous cell carcinoma (n = 6294) were eligible. Incidence trends were analysed using joinpoint regression models, with calculation of the estimated annual percent change (EAPC), and age-period-cohort models.

RESULTS

Total incidence showed a regular and significant decreasing trend (EAPC, -0.96; 95% confidence interval (CI), -1.43 to -0.48). This was entirely accounted for by women aged ≥60 years (EAPC, -1.34; 95% CI, -1.86 to -0.81). For younger women, the EAPC between 1990 and 2012 was 1.20 (95% CI, 0.34 to 2.06) with a non-significant acceleration thereafter. This pattern did not vary substantially in a sensitivity analysis for the effect of geographic area and duration of the registry. The age-period-cohort analysis revealed a risk decrease in cohorts born between 1905 and 1940 and a new increase in cohorts born since 1945.

CONCLUSIONS

The decreasing trend observed among older women and the resulting decrease in total rate are at variance with reports from most Western countries. Age-period-cohort analysis confirmed a decreasing trend for earliest birth cohorts and an opposite one for recent ones.

Epidemiology and biological characteristics of male breast cancer in Italy

AIM

To evaluate the epidemiology of male breast cancer (MBC) in Italy and to describe incidence and survival data in relation to age, morphology, year of incidence, geographic area, and possible association with other cancers compared with female BC.

METHODS

Cases were extracted from 40 Italian Cancer Registries. Standardized incidence rates (SIR), age-specific rates, and 5-year survival were calculated. The association with second tumors was also evaluated. All data were compared with data from female BCs.

RESULTS

In the 2000-2014 period, 2175 new cases of MBC were registered, with an SIR of 1.7 × 100,000. The incidence showed a slight upward trend and increased with increasing age. The 5-year survival was 82% in the first two periods (2000-2004, 2005-2009), lower than in females (87%). The most frequent morphology was the ductal carcinoma (84%). Stage at diagnosis was 39.5% stage I, 33.1% stage II, 20.9% in stage III, and 6.4% in stage IV. Concerning receptor status, 96.4% had ER+ and 82.5% PR+; 46.5% had high Ki67 and 14.7% HER2 amplified. The risk of BC increased if the man had already had a previous tumor in any site (excess absolute risk, EAR = 2.7) and especially if he had had prostate cancer (EAR = 5.1). Instead, males with a previous diagnosis of BC had an increased risk of testicular, kidney and lung cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

MBC requires more attention in terms of diagnosis and treatment as clinicians tend to follow the guidelines that have been developed for female BC management.

Analysis of Mortality among Neonates and Children with Spina Bifida: An International Registry-Based Study, 2001-2012

BACKGROUND

Medical advancements have resulted in better survival and life expectancy among those with spina bifida, but a significantly increased risk of perinatal and postnatal mortality for individuals with spina bifida remains.

OBJECTIVES

To examine stillbirth and infant and child mortality among those affected by spina bifida using data from multiple countries.

METHODS

We conducted an observational study, using data from 24 population- and hospital-based surveillance registries in 18 countries contributing as members of the International Clearinghouse for Birth Defects Surveillance and Research (ICBDSR). Cases of spina bifida that resulted in livebirths or stillbirths from 20 weeks' gestation or elective termination of pregnancy for fetal anomaly (ETOPFA) were included. Among liveborn spina bifida cases, we calculated mortality at different ages as number of deaths among liveborn cases divided by total number of liveborn cases with spina bifida. As a secondary outcome measure, we estimated the prevalence of spina bifida per 10 000 total births. The 95% confidence interval for the prevalence estimate was estimated using the Poisson approximation of binomial distribution.

RESULTS

Between years 2001 and 2012, the overall first-week mortality proportion was 6.9% (95% CI 6.3, 7.7) and was lower in programmes operating in countries with policies that allowed ETOPFA compared with their counterparts (5.9% vs. 8.4%). The majority of first-week mortality occurred on the first day of life. In programmes where information on long-term mortality was available through linkage to administrative databases, survival at 5 years of age was 90%-96% in Europe, and 86%-96% in North America.

CONCLUSIONS

Our multi-country study showed a high proportion of stillbirth and infant and child deaths among those with spina bifida. Effective folic acid interventions could prevent many cases of spina bifida, thereby preventing associated childhood morbidity and mortality.

Trisomy 13 and 18-Prevalence and mortality-A multi-registry population based analysis

The aim of the study is to determine the prevalence, outcomes, and survival (among live births [LB]), in pregnancies diagnosed with trisomy 13 (T13) and 18 (T18), by congenital anomaly register and region. Twenty-four population- and hospital-based birth defects surveillance registers from 18 countries, contributed data on T13 and T18 between 1974 and 2014 using a common data-reporting protocol. The mean total birth prevalence (i.e., LB, stillbirths, and elective termination of pregnancy for fetal anomalies [ETOPFA]) in the registers with ETOPFA (n = 15) for T13 was 1.68 (95% CI 1.3-2.06), and for T18 was 4.08 (95% CI 3.01-5.15), per 10,000 births. The prevalence varied among the various registers. The mean prevalence among LB in all registers for T13 was 0.55 (95%CI 0.38-0.72), and for T18 was 1.07 (95% CI 0.77-1.38), per 10,000 births. The median mortality in the first week of life was 48% for T13 and 42% for T18, across all registers, half of which occurred on the first day of life. Across 16 registers with complete 1-year follow-up, mortality in first year of life was 87% for T13 and 88% for T18. This study provides an international perspective on prevalence and mortality of T13 and T18. Overall outcomes and survival among LB were poor with about half of live born infants not surviving first week of life; nevertheless about 10% survived the first year of life. Prevalence and outcomes varied by country and termination policies. The study highlights the variation in screening, data collection, and reporting practices for these conditions.

Neoadjuvant therapy for breast cancer

Objective:

To evaluate the frequency of neoadjuvant therapy (NT) in women with stage I–III breast cancer in Italy and whether it is influenced by biological characteristics, screening history, and geographic area.

Methods:

Data from the High Resolution Study conducted in 7 Italian cancer registries were used; they are a representative sample of incident cancers in the study period (2009–2013). Included were 3546 women aged <85 years (groups <50, 50–69, 70–64, and 75+) with stage I–III breast cancer at diagnosis who underwent surgery. Women were classified as receiving NT if they received chemotherapy, target therapy, and/or hormone therapy before the first surgical treatment. Logistic models were built to test the association with biological and contextual variables.

Results:

Only 8.2% of women (290 cases) underwent NT; the treatment decreases with increasing age (14.5% in age <50 and 2.2% in age 75+), is more frequent in women with negative receptors (14.8%), HER2-positive (15.7%), and triple-negative (15.6%). The multivariable analysis showed the probability of receiving NT is higher in stage III (odds ratio [OR] 3.83; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.83–5.18), luminal B (OR 1.87; 95% CI 1.27–2.76), triple-negatives (OR 1.88; 95% CI 1.15–3.08), and in symptomatic cancers (OR 1.98; 95% CI 1.13–3.48). Use of NT varied among geographic areas: Reggio Emilia had the highest rates (OR 2.29; 95% CI 1.37–3.82) while Palermo had the lowest (OR 0.41; 95% CI 0.24–0.68).

Conclusions:

The use of NT in Italy is limited and variable. There are no signs of greater use in hospitals with more advanced care.

Changes in life expectancy for cancer patients over time since diagnosis

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Research question: how cancer impacts on LE changes during patients’ entire life

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LE increased in patients surviving the first years and decreasing thereafter.

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Patients’ LE in the long-term approached but seldom reached the general population’s LE.

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This method describes when cancer survivors’ excess risk of death became negligible.

•

Life expectancy indicator is easy to be understood and interpreted by patients.

The aims of this study were to provide life expectancy (LE) estimates of cancer patients at diagnosis and LE changes over time since diagnosis to describe the impact of cancer during patients' entire lives. Cancer patients' LE was calculated by standard period life table methodology using the relative survival of Italian patients diagnosed in population-based cancer registries in 1985–2011 with follow-up to 2013. Data were smoothed using a polynomial model and years of life lost (YLL) were calculated as the difference between patients' LE and that of the age- and sex-matched general population. The YLL at diagnosis was highest at the youngest age at diagnosis, steadily decreasing thereafter. For patients diagnosed at age 45 years, the YLL was above 20 for lung and ovarian cancers and below 6 for thyroid cancer in women and melanoma in men. LE progressively increased in patients surviving the first years, decreasing thereafter, to approach that of the general population. YLL in the long run mainly depends on attained age. Providing quantitative data is essential to better define clinical follow-up and plan health care resource allocation. These results help assess when the excess risk of death from tumour becomes negligible in cancer survivors.

Microenvironment and tumor inflammatory features improve prognostic prediction in gastro-entero-pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms

Microenvironment‐related immune and inflammatory markers, when combined with established Ki‐67 and morphology parameters, can improve prognostic prediction in gastro‐entero‐pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (GEP‐NENs). Therefore, we evaluated the prognostic value of microenvironment and tumor inflammatory features (MoTIFs) in GEP‐NENs. For this purpose, formalin‐fixed paraffin‐embedded tissue sections from 350 patients were profiled by immunohistochemistry for immune, inflammatory, angiogenesis, proliferation, NEN‐, and fibroblast‐related markers. A total of 314 patients were used to generate overall survival (OS) and disease‐free survival (DFS) MoTIFs prognostic indices (PIs). PIs and additional variables were assessed using Cox models to generate nomograms for predicting 5‐year OS and DFS. A total of 36 patients were used for external validation of PIs and nomograms' prognostic segregations. From our analysis, G1/G2 versus G3 GEP‐NENs showed phenotypic divergence with immune‐inflammatory markers. HLA, CD3, CD8, and PD‐1/PD‐L1 IHC expression separated G3 into two sub‐categories with high versus low adaptive immunity‐related features. MoTIFs PI for OS based on COX‐2^Tumor(T) > 4, PD‐1^Stromal(S) > 0, CD8^S < 1, and HLA‐I^S < 1 was associated with worst survival (hazard ratio [HR] 2.50; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.12–2.96; p < 0.0001). MoTIFs PI for DFS was based on COX‐2^T > 4, PD‐1^S > 4, HLA‐I^S < 1, HLA‐I^T < 2, HLA‐DR^S < 6 (HR 1.77; 95% CI, 1.58–1.99; p < 0.0001). Two nomograms were developed including morphology (HR 4.83; 95% CI, 2.30–10.15; p < 0.001) and Ki‐67 (HR 11.32; 95% CI, 5.28–24.24; p < 0.001) for OS, and morphology (PI = 0: HR 10.23; 95% CI, 5.67–18.47; PI = 5: HR 2.87; 95% CI, 1.21–6.81; p < 0.001) and MoTIFs PI for DFS in well‐differentiated GEP‐NENs (HR 6.21; 95% CI, 2.52–13.31; p < 0.001). We conclude that G1/G2 to G3 transition is associated with immune‐inflammatory profile changes; in fact, MoTIFs combined with morphology and Ki‐67 improve 5‐year DFS prediction in GEP‐NENs. The immune context of a subset of G3 poorly differentiated tumors is consistent with activation of adaptive immunity, suggesting a potential for responsiveness to immunotherapy targeting immune checkpoints.

Prenatal diagnosis and prevalence of critical congenital heart defects: an international retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To assess international trends and patterns of prenatal diagnosis of critical congenital heart defects (CCHDs) and their relation to total and live birth CCHD prevalence and mortality.

SETTING

Fifteen birth defect surveillance programmes that participate in the International Clearinghouse for Birth Defects Surveillance and Research from 12 countries in Europe, North and South America and Asia.

PARTICIPANTS

Live births, stillbirths and elective terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly diagnosed with 1 of 12 selected CCHD, ascertained by the 15 programmes for delivery years 2000 to 2014.

RESULTS

18 243 CCHD cases were reported among 8 847 081 births. The median total prevalence was 19.1 per 10 000 births but varied threefold between programmes from 10.1 to 31.0 per 10 000. CCHD were prenatally detected for at least 50% of the cases in one-third of the programmes. However, prenatal detection varied from 13% in Slovak Republic to 87% in some areas in France. Prenatal detection was consistently high for hypoplastic left heart syndrome (64% overall) and was lowest for total anomalous pulmonary venous return (28% overall). Surveillance programmes in countries that do not legally permit terminations of pregnancy tended to have higher live birth prevalence of CCHD. Most programmes showed an increasing trend in prenatally diagnosed CCHD cases.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Prenatal detection already accounts for 50% or more of CCHD detected in many programmes and is increasing. Local policies and access likely account for the wide variability of reported occurrence and prenatal diagnosis. Detection rates are high especially for CCHD that are more easily diagnosed on a standard obstetric four-chamber ultrasound or for fetuses that have extracardiac anomalies. These ongoing trends in prenatal diagnosis, potentially in combination with newborn pulse oximetry, are likely to modify the epidemiology and clinical outcomes of CCHD in the near future.

Prognosis and cure of long-term cancer survivors: A population-based estimation

Background

Increasing evidence of cure for some neoplasms has emerged in recent years. The study aimed to estimate population‐based indicators of cancer cure.

Methods

Information on more than half a million cancer patients aged 15‐74 years collected by population‐based Italian cancer registries and mixture cure models were used to estimate the life expectancy of fatal tumors (LEFT), proportions of patients with similar death rates of the general population (cure fraction), and time to reach 5‐year conditional relative survival (CRS) >90% or 95% (time to cure).

Results

Between 1990 and 2000, the median LEFT increased >1 year for breast (from 8.1 to 9.4 years) and prostate cancers (from 5.2 to 7.4 years). Median LEFT in 1990 was >5 years for testicular cancers (5.8) and Hodgkin lymphoma (6.3) below 45 years of age. In both sexes, it was ≤0.5 years for pancreatic cancers and NHL in 1990 and in 2000. The cure fraction showed a 10% increase between 1990 and 2000. It was 95% for thyroid cancer in women, 94% for testis, 75% for prostate, 67% for breast cancers, and <20% for liver, lung, and pancreatic cancers. Time to 5‐year CRS >95% was <10 years for testis, thyroid, colon cancers, and melanoma. For breast and prostate cancers, the 5‐year CRS >90% was reached in <10 years but a small excess remained for >15 years.

Conclusions

The study findings confirmed that several cancer types are curable. Became aware of the possibility of cancer cure has relevant clinical and social impacts.

The role of plasma microseminoprotein-beta in prostate cancer: an observational nested case-control and Mendelian randomization study in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition

BACKGROUND

Microseminoprotein-beta (MSP), a protein secreted by the prostate epithelium, may have a protective role in the development of prostate cancer. The only previous prospective study found a 2% reduced prostate cancer risk per unit increase in MSP. This work investigates the association of MSP with prostate cancer risk using observational and Mendelian randomization (MR) methods.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A nested case-control study was conducted with the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) with 1871 cases and 1871 matched controls. Conditional logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the association of pre-diagnostic circulating MSP with risk of incident prostate cancer overall and by tumour subtype. EPIC-derived estimates were combined with published data to calculate an MR estimate using two-sample inverse-variance method.

RESULTS

Plasma MSP concentrations were inversely associated with prostate cancer risk after adjusting for total prostate-specific antigen concentration [odds ratio (OR) highest versus lowest fourth of MSP = 0.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.51-0.84, Ptrend = 0.001]. No heterogeneity in this association was observed by tumour stage or histological grade. Plasma MSP concentrations were 66% lower in rs10993994 TT compared with CC homozygotes (per allele difference in MSP: 6.09 ng/ml, 95% CI 5.56-6.61, r2=0.42). MR analyses supported a potentially causal protective association of MSP with prostate cancer risk (OR per 1 ng/ml increase in MSP for MR: 0.96, 95% CI 0.95-0.97 versus EPIC observational: 0.98, 95% CI 0.97-0.99). Limitations include lack of complete tumour subtype information and more complete information on the biological function of MSP.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large prospective European study and using MR analyses, men with high circulating MSP concentration have a lower risk of prostate cancer. MSP may play a causally protective role in prostate cancer.

[Formaldehyde in electronic cigarettes and in heat-not-burn products: let's make the point]

The spread of electronic cigarettes (e-cigs) and of the so-called heat-not-burn (HnB), also known as heated tobacco products, presented as a less harmful alternative to traditional cigarettes, required further in-depth studies to demonstrate the real benefits or possible risks linked to this type of habit among smokers and possible new smokers. There are numerous harmful substances produced by these devices, such as metals, organic compounds, and aldehydes. The presence of formaldehyde is particularly worrying: its indoor concentration is 2.7, 1.2, and 40 µg/m3 for HnB, e-cigs, and traditional cigarettes, respectively. The evidence of this substance, which numerous epidemiological studies have already shown to be harmful to health (in particular, the International Agency for Research on Cancer classified it as a group 1 carcinogen), would lead to the need to modify the legislation with more restrictive rules on the use of these devices in public environment and in particular in the presence of more susceptible subjects, such as minors and pregnant women.

Lifetime and baseline alcohol intakes and risk of pancreatic cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study

Recent evidence suggested a weak relationship between alcohol consumption and pancreatic cancer (PC) risk. In our study, the association between lifetime and baseline alcohol intakes and the risk of PC was evaluated, including the type of alcoholic beverages and potential interaction with smoking. Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study, 1,283 incident PC (57% women) were diagnosed from 476,106 cancer-free participants, followed up for 14 years. Amounts of lifetime and baseline alcohol were estimated through lifestyle and dietary questionnaires, respectively. Cox proportional hazard models with age as primary time variable were used to estimate PC hazard ratios (HR) and their 95% confidence interval (CI). Alcohol intake was positively associated with PC risk in men. Associations were mainly driven by extreme alcohol levels, with HRs comparing heavy drinkers (>60 g/day) to the reference category (0.1-4.9 g/day) equal to 1.77 (95% CI: 1.06, 2.95) and 1.63 (95% CI: 1.16, 2.29) for lifetime and baseline alcohol, respectively. Baseline alcohol intakes from beer (>40 g/day) and spirits/liquors (>10 g/day) showed HRs equal to 1.58 (95% CI: 1.07, 2.34) and 1.41 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.94), respectively, compared to the reference category (0.1-2.9 g/day). In women, HR estimates did not reach statistically significance. The alcohol and PC risk association was not modified by smoking status. Findings from a large prospective study suggest that baseline and lifetime alcohol intakes were positively associated with PC risk, with more apparent risk estimates for beer and spirits/liquors than wine intake.

Effectiveness of First-Line Bevacizumab in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer: The Observational Cohort Study GRETA

BACKGROUND

Scant real-world data exist on the clinical outcomes associated with the use of bevacizumab-containing chemotherapy (B+CT) in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). The primary objective of the GRETA cohort study was to compare the overall survival (OS) of patients with mCRC treated with first-line B+CT versus chemotherapy (CT) alone, in an Italian clinical practice setting.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Incident patients with mCRC were identified during the period 2010-2012 from five population-based cancer registries in Italy. Cases were linked to regional health care utilization databases to obtain the entire spectrum of health services provided to each patient. Patients starting a first-line treatment with B+CT or CT alone within 90 days from the diagnosis were included in the study cohort. A propensity score (PS) method was applied to account for residual confounding.

RESULTS

Of 480 patients with mCRC included in the study cohort, 21.0 received first-line B+CT, and 79.0% received CT. Patients receiving B+CT were younger (p < .001) and underwent surgery more frequently (p = .001). The median OS was 22.5 and 14.6 months for B+CT and CT, respectively (p = .011). The corresponding hazard ratios adjusted by multivariate modeling and PS matched analysis were 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.62-1.08) and 0.86 (95% CI, 0.56-1.33), respectively. Similar results were observed after subgrouping by age and surgery.

CONCLUSION

In this Italian real-world setting of unselected mCRC, the OS of patients treated with B+CT was consistent with previous observational and patient-registry studies. However, definitive evidence of an improvement in OS cannot be drawn.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

Bevacizumab is a well-established first-line treatment for metastatic colorectal cancer. However, there is scarce evidence in the literature about its effectiveness in clinical practice. Evaluating this topic should be of interest for both clinicians and regulatory agencies. In this study, the median overall survival of the bevacizumab cohort was strikingly coherent with that reported in large observational series of unselected patients, thus suggesting a consistent and reproducible effect of the drug in clinical practice. Although consistent results were observed both in the overall population and in age and surgery subgroups, the present study did not offer definitive evidence of an improvement in OS.

Tau Mutations Serve as a Novel Risk Factor for Cancer

In addition to its well-recognized role in neurodegeneration, tau participates in maintenance of genome stability and chromosome integrity. In particular, peripheral cells from patients affected by frontotemporal lobar degeneration carrying a mutation in tau gene (genetic tauopathies), as well as cells from animal models, show chromosome numerical and structural aberrations, chromatin anomalies, and a propensity toward abnormal recombination. As genome instability is tightly linked to cancer development, we hypothesized that mutated tau may be a susceptibility factor for cancer. Here we conducted a retrospective cohort study comparing cancer incidence in families affected by genetic tauopathies to control families. In addition, we carried out a bioinformatics analysis to highlight pathways associated with the tau protein interactome. We report that the risk of developing cancer is significantly higher in families affected by genetic tauopathies, and a high proportion of tau protein interactors are involved in cellular processes particularly relevant to cancer. These findings disclose a novel role of tau as a risk factor for cancer, providing new insights in the various pathologic roles of mutated tau.Significance: This study reveals a novel role for tau as a risk factor for cancer, providing new insights beyond its role in neurodegeneration. Cancer Res; 78(13); 3731-9. ©2018 AACR.