Are autopsies on minors a taboo?: The experience of Milan in a 19-year retrospective study

Forensic autopsy is an important tool for the proper management of non-natural deaths in minors. However, it seems that autopsy in minors is a practice which may not be performed routinely. In this framework, we conducted a study analyzing autopsies of minors (under 18 years of age in Italy) performed at the Institute of Forensic Medicine in Milan in the period 2001-2019. For the period 2015-2019, we extrapolated all deaths due to non-natural causes in minors to investigate how many and which of these deaths were not subjected to forensic autopsy. Of the total, 344 minors (235 males and 109 females) underwent autopsies, with an overall downward trend of about 80% since 2004. Most autopsies occurred between the ages of 0 and 1 year, and the fewest between the ages of 5 and 9 years. The place of death was home in most cases, and accidental death was most common, followed by natural death, suicide, and homicide, with prevalence varying by age group. Blunt force trauma predominated among accidental death in all age groups, followed by asphyxia. Similar findings were observed for suicides, although there was a more differentiated pattern for suicides between the ages of 15 and 17 years. Among homicides, blunt force trauma, asphyxia, and gunshot wounds were fairly evenly distributed across all age groups. Between 2015 and 2019, a total of 86 minors died of a non-natural cause, and a forensic autopsy was performed in only 33 cases (38%). Our data shows that fewer and fewer autopsies are being performed over the last years, which indicates a dangerous lack of forensic investigation of children and adolescent deaths, with enormous implications for prevention of child abuse.

Stima dei decessi attribuibili all'inquinamento da NO2, PM10 e PM2,5 nella Città di Milano nel 2019

BACKGROUND

there is growing evidence that exposure to environmental pollutants affects health, including mortality, chronic diseases, and acute diseases. The World Health Organisation has recently revised downwards the safety thresholds for exposure to environmental pollutants. The City of Milan (CoM) has particularly high levels of pollution; this is due both to the presence of various emission sources and to climatic and orographic conditions.

OBJECTIVES

to describe the health effects of exposure to pollutants, measured by deaths due to environmental exposure to NO2, PM10, and PM2.5 in 2019.

DESIGN

observational study. Using a pollutant concentration estimation model, annual mean values of NO2, PM10, and PM2.5 were estimated for the CoM in 2019. The number of deaths attributable to each exposure was estimated using risk functions available in the literature; the values recommended by the new World Health Organisation guidelines were used as counterfactual exposure limits.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

the population assisted by the Agency for Health Protection of Milan and resident in the CoM on 01.01.2019, aged 30 years or older. The place of residence was georeferenced and the population was followed up until 31.12.2019. Deaths and their causes were obtained from the Causes of Death Registry.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

deaths attributable to exposure from non-accidental causes, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, and lung cancer were estimated.

RESULTS

in 2019, the estimated annual average level of NO2 was 36.6 µg/m3, that of PM10 was 24.9 µg/m3, and that of PM2.5 was 22.4 µg/m3, with levels varying across the city area. Concerning exposure to NO2, in 2019 10% of deaths for natural causes were estimated to be attributable to annual mean levels of NO2 above 10 µg/m3. As regard PM2.5, 13% of deaths for natural causes and 18% of deaths from lung cancer were attributable to an annual mean level above 5 µg/m3. The impact of exposure to particulate matter on mortality does not seem to be the same in all the areas of the CoM.

CONCLUSIONS

the health impact of exposure to airborne particulate matter in the CoM population is high. It is important that citizens, policy-makers, and stakeholders address this issue, because of its impact on both health and healthcare costs.

Hospital-Acquired Anemia in Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome: Epidemiology and Potential Impact on Long-Term Outcome

BACKGROUND

Anemia (either pre-existing or hospital-acquired) is considered an independent predictor of mortality in acute coronary syndromes. However, it is still not clear whether anemia should be considered as a marker of worse health status or a therapeutic target. We sought to investigate the relationship between hospital-acquired anemia and clinical and laboratory findings and to assess the association with mortality and major cardiovascular events at long-term follow-up.

METHODS

Patients consecutively admitted at Niguarda Hospital between February 2014 and November 2020 for an acute coronary syndrome were included in this cohort analysis and classified as anemic at admission (group A), with normal hemoglobin at admission but developing anemia during hospitalization (hospital-acquired anemia) (group B); and with normal hemoglobin levels throughout admission (group C).

RESULTS

Among 1294 patients included, group A included 353 (27%) patients, group B 468 (36%), and group C 473 patients (37%). In terms of cardiovascular burden and incidence of death, major cardiovascular events and bleeding at 4.9-year median follow-up, group B had an intermediate risk profile as compared with A and C. Baseline anemia was an independent predictor of death (hazard ratio 1.51; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-2.25; P = .04) along with frailty, Charlson comorbidity Index, estimated glomerular filtration rate, previous myocardial infarction, and left ventricular ejection fraction. Conversely, hospital-acquired anemia was not associated with increased mortality (hazard ratio 1.18; 95% confidence interval, 0.8-1.75; P = .4).

CONCLUSIONS

Hospital-acquired anemia affects one-third of patients hospitalized for acute coronary syndrome and is associated with age, frailty, and comorbidity burden, but was not found to be an independent predictor of long-term mortality.

Trends in mortality from non-natural causes in children and adolescents (0-19 years) in Europe from 2000 to 2018

BACKGROUND

Non-natural mortality in children and adolescents is a global public health problem that varies widely from country to country. Data on child and adolescent maltreatment are not readily available, and mortality due to violent causes is also underestimated.

METHODS

Injury-related mortality rates (overall and by specific causes) from 2000 to 2018 in selected European countries were analysed to observe mortality patterns in children and adolescents using data from the Eurostat database. Age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated for each country. Joinpoint regression analysis with a significance level of 0.05 and 95% confidence intervals was performed for mortality trends.

RESULTS

Children and adolescent mortality from non-natural causes decreased significantly in Europe from 10.48 around 2005 to 5.91 around 2015. The Eastern countries (Romania, Bulgaria, Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic) had higher rates; while Spain, Denmark, Italy, and the United Kingdom had the lowest. Rates for European Country declined by 5.10% per year over the entire period. Larger downward trends were observed in Ireland, Spain and Portugal; smaller downward trends were observed for Eastern countries (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia) and Finland. Among specific causes of death, the largest decreases were observed for accidental causes (-5.9%) and traffic accidents (-6.8%).

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality among children and adolescents due to non-natural causes has decreased significantly over the past two decades. Accidental events and transport accidents recorded the greatest decline in mortality rates, although there are still some European countries where the number of deaths among children and adolescents from non-natural causes is high. Social, cultural, and health-related reasons may explain the observed differences between countries.

[Reduction of adverse outcome due to COVID-19 infection in a high-risk population: evaluation of an informative intervention through active call by General Practitioners]

BACKGROUND

currently, individuals at risk of adverse outcomes for COVID-19 can access to vaccination and pharmacological interventions. But, during the first epidemic wave, there were no treatments or therapeutic strategies available to reduce adverse outcomes in patients at risk.

OBJECTIVES

to assess the impact of an intervention at 15-month follow-up developed by the Agency for Health Protection of the Metropolitan Area of Milan (ATS Milan) based on telephone triage and consultation by the General Practitioners (GPs) for patient with high-risk for adverse outcomes.

DESIGN

intervention on population.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

a total of 127,292 patients in the ATS aged ≥70 years and with comorbidities associated with an increased risk of dying from COVID-19 infection were identified. Using a specific information system, patients were assigned to their GPs for telephone triage and consultation. GPs inform them about the risks of the disease, non-pharmacological prevention measures, and precautions in contacts with family members and other persons. No specific clinical intervention was carried out, only an information/training intervention was performed.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

by the end of May 2020, 48.613 patients had been contacted and 78.679 had not been contacted. Hazard Ratios (HRs) of infection hospitalisation and death at 3 and 15 months were estimated using Cox regression models adjusted by confounder.

RESULTS

no differences in gender, age class distribution, prevalence of specific diseases, and Charlson Index were found between the two groups (treated such as called patients and not called). Called patients had a higher propensity for influenza and antipneumococcal vaccination and have more comorbidities and greater access to pharmacological therapies. Non-called patients have a greater risk for COVID-19 infection: HR was 3.88 (95%CI 3.48-4.33) at 3 months and 1.28 (95%CI 1.23-1.33) at 15 months; for COVID-19 hospitalization HR was 2.66 (95%CI 2.39-2,95) at 3 months and 1.31 (95%CI 1.25-1.37) at 15 months; for overall mortality HR was 2,52 (95%CI 2.35-2:72) at 3 months and 1.23 (95%CI 1.19-1.27) at 15 months.

CONCLUSIONS

the results of this study show a reduction in hospitalization and deaths and support, in case of pandemic events, the implementation of new care strategies based on adapted stratification systems in order to protect the population's health. This study presents some limits: it is not randomized; a selection bias is present (called patients were those most in contact with the GPs); the intervention is indication-based (on march 2020, the actual benefit of protection and distancing for high-risk groups was unclear), and the adjustment is not able to fully control for confounding. However, this study points out the importance to develop information systems and improve methods to best protect the health of the population in setting of territorial epidemiology.

Global survival trends for brain tumors, by histology: analysis of individual records for 556,237 adults diagnosed in 59 countries during 2000-2014 (CONCORD-3)

BACKGROUND

Survival is a key metric of the effectiveness of a health system in managing cancer. We set out to provide a comprehensive examination of worldwide variation and trends in survival from brain tumors in adults, by histology.

METHODS

We analyzed individual data for adults (15-99 years) diagnosed with a brain tumor (ICD-O-3 topography code C71) during 2000-2014, regardless of tumor behavior. Data underwent a 3-phase quality control as part of CONCORD-3. We estimated net survival for 11 histology groups, using the unbiased nonparametric Pohar Perme estimator.

RESULTS

The study included 556,237 adults. In 2010-2014, the global range in age-standardized 5-year net survival for the most common sub-types was broad: in the range 20%-38% for diffuse and anaplastic astrocytoma, from 4% to 17% for glioblastoma, and between 32% and 69% for oligodendroglioma. For patients with glioblastoma, the largest gains in survival occurred between 2000-2004 and 2005-2009. These improvements were more noticeable among adults diagnosed aged 40-70 years than among younger adults.

CONCLUSIONS

To the best of our knowledge, this study provides the largest account to date of global trends in population-based survival for brain tumors by histology in adults. We have highlighted remarkable gains in 5-year survival from glioblastoma since 2005, providing large-scale empirical evidence on the uptake of chemoradiation at population level. Worldwide, survival improvements have been extensive, but some countries still lag behind. Our findings may help clinicians involved in national and international tumor pathway boards to promote initiatives aimed at more extensive implementation of clinical guidelines.

The Long-Term Effects of Hospitalization on Health Care Expenditures: An Empirical Analysis for the Young-Old Population in Lombardy

As the burden of acute care on government budgets is mounting in many countries, documenting the evolution of health costs following patients' hospital admission is essential for assessing overall hospital-related costs. In this paper, we investigate the short- and long-term effects of hospitalization on different types of health care expenditures. We specify and estimate a dynamic DID model using register data of the entire population of individuals aged 50-70 residing in Milan, Italy, over the period 2008-2017. We find evidence of a large and persistent effect of hospitalization on total health care expenditures, with future medical expenses mostly accounted for by inpatient care. Considering all health treatments, the overall effect is sizable and is about twice the cost of a single hospital admission. We show that chronically ill and disabled individuals require greater post-discharge medical assistance, especially for inpatient care, and that cardiovascular and oncological diseases together account for more than half of expenditures on future hospitalizations. Alternative out-of-hospital management practices are discussed as a post-admission cost-containment measure.

Bridging Epidemiological Data with Features of the Urban Context: An experience of Urban Public Health within the City of Milan, Italy

Referring to the Research Project “Enhancing Healthcare and Well-Being Through the Potential of Big Data: An Integration of Survey, Administrative, and Open Data to Assess Health Risk in the City of Milan with Data Science” the Authors present preliminary results regarding a survey distributed to a sample of citizens across all neighborhoods of Milano city. This survey sought to collect data regarding health risk factors of this population, including both individual (e.g. socio-demographic characteristics, behaviors, etc.) and community (e.g. environmental/morphological features, available social services, etc.) data. A digital survey was designed to collect information on the health conditions, risk factors, and lifestyle characteristics of a representative sample of the Milanese population at the neighborhood level, with reference to the census tracts and Local Identity Units (NIL). Collected survey data are entered into a system containing corresponding individual health information acquired from the Local Health Authority databases, creating a synthesized information profile with each respondent's state of health, including existing conditions, health services used, and drug therapies. The disseminated survey was developed from comparisons with similar experiences at the national/international level and divided into 60 multiple choice questions (6 for Sociodemographic profile; 8 for Context of residence; 12 for Functional limitations; 25 for Behaviors and lifestyles; 9 for Access to health services). The data from urban analysis conducted on the NIL of the City of Milan are assessed with particular reference to the theme of bicycle-pedestrian accessibility (Walkability) in the urban context and repercussions on the adoption of Healthy Lifestyles. The models developed through this research are expected to provide critical insight for designing health promotion, health protection, and disease prevention interventions aimed both at individual and community level.

First SARS-CoV-2 vaccine booster and influenza vaccination: risk assessment of COVID-19 hospitalisation and death

BACKGROUND

the influenza and SARS-CoV-2 viruses share a common respiratory symptomatology and transmission mode. COVID-19 and influenza R0 overlapped in the first epidemic wave. In autumn 2021-winter 2022, the influenza epidemic had a delayed onset compared to pre-COVID-19 years and lower incidence rates than in the pre-pandemic period. The SARS-CoV-2 and influenza vaccination campaign overlapped in 2021-2022.

OBJECTIVES

to evaluate in the SARS-CoV-2 vaccinated cohort the effect of different timing of influenza vaccination on hospitalisations for COVID-19 and overall mortality.

DESIGN

prospective cohort study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

subjects aged 65 years or older who were administered the first booster dose of SARS-COV-2 vaccine between 01.10.2021 and 01.03.2022. Based on the date of influenza vaccination, subjects were divided into the following 4 different mutually exclusive groups: 1. two vaccinations in the same vaccination session; 2. influenza vaccination following SARS-CoV-2 vaccination; 3. influenza vaccination preceding SARS-CoV-2 vaccination; 4. no influenza vaccination. Using Cox regression models, hazard ratio (HR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of hospitalisation and death were estimated for the influenza-vaccinated subjects compared to influenza-unvaccinated subjects.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

ordinary hospital admissions for COVID-19 and general mortality.

RESULTS

the cohort included 618,964 subjects: 16.3% received two vaccinations in the same vaccination session, 8.5% received the influenza vaccination after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, 33.9% received it before and 41.1% did not receive an influenza vaccination. Those vaccinated against both SARS-CoV-2 and influenza had a combined HR of 0.73 (0.62-0.86) of hospitalisation for COVID-19 and 0.55 (0.49-0.62) of overall mortality compared to those vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 only.

CONCLUSIONS

influenza vaccination combined with SARS-CoV-2 vaccination increases the protective effect against hospitalisations and overall mortality compared to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination alone. Both organisational and communication actions aimed to promote and encourage vaccination are required.

[Description of excess of overall and cause-specific mortality in the Agency for Health Protection of the Metropolitan Area of Milan (Lombardy Region, Northern Italy) in 2020]

BACKGROUND

as a result of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, a generalised mortality excess was recorded in 2020. However, the mortality for COVID-19 cannot fully explain the observed excesses. The analysis of cause-specific mortality could contribute to estimate the direct and indirect effects of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak and to the monitoring mortality trends.

OBJECTIVES

to describe the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in overall and cause-specific mortality in population residing in the Agency for Health Protection (ATS) of Milan. Descriptive analysis of cause-specific mortality within thirty days of SARS-COV-2 infection.

DESIGN

descriptive analysis of overall and cause-specific mortality in the ATS of Milan area in 2020 and comparison with a reference period (2015-2019).

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

overall deaths in ATS of Milan in 2020 were collected, using the Local Registry of Causes of Death, and were classified according to the ICD-10 codes.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

total and weekly overall and cause-specific mortality, by age.

RESULTS

in 2020, 44,757 deaths for all causes were observed in people residing in the ATS of Milan with percentage change of 35%. The leading cause of death in 2020 were cardiovascular disease and neoplasm; COVID-19 infection was the third cause. An excess of mortality was observed for most of all causes of deaths. Starting from 40-49-year age group, an increase of mortality was observed; the largest increase was observed in the group 70+ years. The largest increases were observed for endocrine, respiratory, and hypertensive diseases. On the contrary, for neoplasm, infectious (not COVID-19) diseases, traffic-related mortality, and cerebrovascular disease and ictus, a decrease of mortality was observed. The greater mortality increase was observed during the first pandemic wave. The leading cause of death after positive swab was COVID-19 infection, with little variation with age class. Other frequent causes of death were respiratory diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and neoplasm.

CONCLUSIONS

the study showed a generalised increase for most causes of death; observed mortality trends may indicate delay in access to health care system, in diagnosis and treatment.

The impact of school closure intervention during the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy: Evidence from the Milan area

Background

In February 2021, the spread of a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 in the Lombardy Region, Italy caused concerns about school-aged children as a source of contagion, leading local authorities to adopt an extraordinary school closure measure. This generated a debate about the usefulness of such an intervention in light of the trade-off between its related benefits and costs (e.g. delays in educational attainment, impact on children and families’ psycho-physical well-being). This article analyses the epidemiological impact of the school closure intervention in the Milan metropolitan area.

Methods

Data from the Agency for Health Protection of the Metropolitan City of Milan allowed analysing the trend of contagion in different age classes before and after the intervention, adopting an interrupted times series design, providing a quasi-experimental counterfactual scenario. Segmented Poisson regression models of daily incident cases were performed separately for the 3–11-year-old, the 12–19-year-old, and the 20+-year-old age groups, examining the change in the contagion curves after the intervention, adjusting for time-varying confounders. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox regression were used to assess the equality of survival curves in the three age groups before and after the intervention.

Results

Net of time-varying confounders, the intervention produced a daily reduction of the risk of contagion by 4% in those aged 3–11 and 12–19 (IRR = 0·96) and by 3% in those aged 20 or more (IRR = 0·97). More importantly, there were differences in the temporal order of contagion decrease between the age groups, with the epidemic curve lowering first in the school-aged children directly affected by the intervention, and only subsequently in the adult population, which presumably indirectly benefitted from the reduction of contagion among children.

Conclusion

Though it was not possible to completely discern the effect of school closures from concurrent policy measures, a substantial decrease in the contagion curves was clearly detected after the intervention. The extent to which the slowdown of infections counterbalanced the social costs of the policy remains unclear.

[Identifying deaths due to or involving COVID-19 in absence of the death certificate]

BACKGROUND

during 2020, Italy was one of the first nation hit by SARS-CoV-2, but it was not the hardest-hit country in terms of deaths. In absence of the death certificate, the burden of COVID-19 on mortality is usually calculated from overall deaths or from deaths of patients tested positive for COVID-19. However, these measures do not express the real burden of the disease on the population.

OBJECTIVES

identify deaths due to or involving COVID-19 in absence of the death certificates.

DESIGN

deaths for all causes, cause-specific deaths, COVID-19 hospitalization and COVID-19 confirmed cases between 01.01.2020 and 31.12.2021 observed in subjects residing in the territory of the ATS of Milan. Potential deaths due to or involving COVID-19 as those occurring in an optimal time period between the date of death and the date of positive swab and/or COVID-19 hospitalization, were identified. Optimal time period was defined maximizing sensitivity and specificity, comparing potential COVID-19 deaths with 2020 cause-specific mortality as gold standard, stratifying results by time of deaths, age, and number of comorbidities. Then, this method was further validated using a time-series approach to estimate the excess mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in comparison with the pre-outbreak period 2015-2019. Accuracy of predictions was evaluated with the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) between observed and predicted values.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

78,202 deaths for all causes, of which 8,815 due to or involving COVID-19 as classified by the Milan Register of Death Causes for 2020.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality.

RESULTS

from the beginning of the epidemic, 30% (23,495) died in the first semester of 2020, 26% (19,988) in the second semester of 2020, 23% (18,189) in the first semester of 2021, and 21% (16,530) in the second semester of 2021. COVID-19 hospitalizations were 13.826 (17%), while confirmed COVID-19 cases were 17,548 (22%). The optimal time intervals capable to identify a potential death due to or involving COVID-19 were 0-61 between the date of death and the date of positive swab and 0-11 between the date of death and the date of COVID-19 hospitalization, with an overall sensitivity of 90%, a specificity of 95%, and a RMSE of 3.6. Comparing the method proposed with the time-series approach, a RMSE in 2021 of 15.8 was found. Results showed different optimal time intervals for 2021 vs 2020 and by years of age and comorbidities.

CONCLUSIONS

this study found that deaths due to or involving COVID-19 could be sensitively identified from the date of positive swab and/or COVID-19 hospitalization. This method can be used for public health interventions which provided so far measures in terms of total deaths instead of real numbers of COVID-19 death, in particular those involving the effective reproduction number usually calculated from overall mortality.

A Comparison Between Omicron and Earlier COVID-19 Variants' Disease Severity in the Milan Area, Italy

Background

In the context of the fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy, which occurred in correspondence with the outbreak of the Omicron variant, it became fundamental to assess differences in the risk of severe disease between the Omicron variant and the earlier SARS-CoV-2 variants that were still in circulation despite Omicron becoming prevalent.

Methods

We collected data on 2,267 genotyped PCR-positive swab tests and assessed whether the presence of symptoms, risk of hospitalization, and recovery times were significantly different between Omicron and the earlier variants. Multivariable models adjusted for sex, age class, citizenship, comorbidities, and symptomatology allowed assessing the difference in outcomes between Omicron and the earlier variants according to vaccination status and timing of administration.

Results

Compared to the earlier variants in the same period, Omicron was less symptomatic, resulted in fewer hospital admissions for those who were unvaccinated and for those who were already immunized after the booster dose, and was associated with quicker recovery, yet not in subjects with three vaccination doses.

Conclusion

Despite being milder, Omicron's higher transmissibility and vaccine resistance should not lead to underrating its damage potential, especially with regard to hospital and health service saturation.

Time-series cohort study to forecast emergency department visits in the city of Milan and predict high demand: a 2-day warning system

OBJECTIVES

The emergency department (ED) is one of the most critical areas in any hospital. Recently, many countries have seen a rise in the number of ED visits, with an increase in length of stay and a detrimental effect on quality of care. Being able to forecast future demands would be a valuable support for hospitals to prevent high demand, particularly in a system with limited resources where use of ED services for non-urgent visits is an important issue.

DESIGN

Time-series cohort study.

SETTING

We collected all ED visits between January 2014 and December 2019 in the five larger hospitals in Milan. To predict daily volumes, we used a regression model with autoregressive integrated moving average errors. Predictors included were day of the week and year-round seasonality, meteorological and environmental variables, information on influenza epidemics and festivities. Accuracy of prediction was evaluated with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Daily all-cause EDs visits.

RESULTS

In the study period, we observed 2 223 479 visits. ED visits were most likely to occur on weekends for children and on Mondays for adults and seniors. Results confirmed the role of meteorological and environmental variables and the presence of day of the week and year-round seasonality effects. We found high correlation between observed and predicted values with a MAPE globally smaller than 8.1%.

CONCLUSIONS

Results were used to establish an ED warning system based on past observations and indicators of high demand. This is important in any health system that regularly faces scarcity of resources, and it is crucial in a system where use of ED services for non-urgent visits is still high.

Exploring gender differences in medication consumption and mortality in a cohort of hypertensive patients in Northern Italy

Background

This paper aims to assess the presence of gender differences in medication use and mortality in a cohort of patients affected exclusively by hypertension, in 193 municipalities in the Lombardy Region (Northern Italy), including Milan's metropolitan area.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted (N = 232,507) querying administrative healthcare data and the Register of Causes of Death. Hypertensive patients (55.4% women; 44.6% men) in 2017 were identified; gender differences in medication use (treatment, 80% compliance) and deaths (from all causes and CVDs) were assessed at two-year follow-ups in logistic regression models adjusted for age class, census-based deprivation index, nationality, and pre-existing health conditions. Models stratified by age, deprivation index, and therapeutic compliance were also tested.

Results

Overall, women had higher odds of being treated, but lower odds of therapeutic compliance, death from all causes, and death from CVDs. All the outcomes had clear sex differences across age classes, though not between different levels of deprivation. Comparing patients with medication adherence, women had lower odds of death from all causes than men (with a narrowing protective effect as age increased), while no gender differences emerged in non-compliant patients.

Conclusions

Among hypertensive patients, gender differences in medication consumption and mortality have been found, but the extent to which these are attributable to a female socio-cultural disadvantage is questionable. The findings reached, with marked age-dependent effects in the outcomes investigated, suggest a prominent role for innate sex differences in biological susceptibility to the disease, whereby women would take advantage of the protective effects of their innate physiological characteristics, especially prior to the beginning of menopause.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13052-9.

Boosters and time from the last anti-COVID-19 vaccine dose: lead public health choices by real-time epidemiological assessment

BACKGROUND

the levels of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies after the second vaccine dose decline in the following months; the administration of an additional vaccine dose (booster) is able to restore the immune system in the short period significantly reducing the risk of a severe disease. In the winter of 2021, a new particularly infectious variant caused the urgent need to increase the coverage of the booster dose.

OBJECTIVES

to present, using real data, an evaluation of the efficacy of the booster dose in reducing the severe disease of SARS-CoV-2 infection in terms of hospital admissions, intensive care and death from all causes.

DESIGN

descriptive study of vaccine adherence; associative study of the factors linked with adherence of vaccination and COVID-19 symptoms; associative study of vaccine effectiveness against hospital admission and mortality.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

population-based study in the Milan and Lodi provinces (Lombardy Region, Northern Italy) with subjects aged >=19 years alive at 01.10.2021, not residing in a nursery home, followed up to 31.12.2021.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

COVID-19 symptoms, hospitalization for COVID-19, intensive care hospitalization, and all-cause mortality in the period 01.10.2021-31.12.2021.

RESULTS

the cohort included 2,936,193 patients at 01.10.2021: at the end of the follow-up period (31.12.2021), 378,616 (12.9%) had no vaccine, 128,879 (4.3%) had only 1 dose, 412,227 (14.0%) had a 2nd dose given since less than 4 months, 725. 806 (25%) had a 2nd dose given since 4-7 months, 74,152 (2.5%) had a 2nd dose given since 7+ months, 62,614 (2.1%) had a 2nd dose and have had the disease, and 1,153,899 (39.3%) received the booster. In the study period (01.10.2021-31.12.2021), characterized by a very high prevalence of the omicron variant, 121,620 cases (antigenic/molecular buffer positive), 3,661 hospitalizations for COVID-19, 162 ICU hospitalizations, and 7,508 deaths from all causes were identified. Compared to unvaccinated people, subjects who had the booster dose had half the risk of being symptomatic, in particular for asthenia, muscle pain, and dyspnoea which are the most commons COVID-19 symptoms. In comparison with the subjects who had the booster dose, the unvaccinated had a 10-fold risk of hospitalization for COVID-19, a 9-fold risk of intensive care, and a 3-fold risk of dying.

CONCLUSIONS

this work highlights the vaccination efficacy in reducing serious adverse events for those who undergo the booster and the need to implement specific engagement policies to bring to a booster those who had taken the second dose since the longest time.

Age-period-cohort effects in utilization of diagnostic procedures leading to incidental colorectal cancer detection

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Despite the overall decrease in colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence, a small but constant rise has been recently observed in people younger than 50 years across several countries. This phenomenon can be explained by environmental or lifestyle factors, but it may also be partially justified by an increasing tendency in younger cohorts to undertake diagnostic procedures that may lead to CRC incidental diagnosis.

METHODS

We performed an age-period-cohort analysis on 1 815 694 diagnostic procedures undertook by the population of the City of Milan, served by the Agency for Health Protection of Milan, between 1999 and 2018. We considered all instances of colonoscopy, rectoscopy, fecal occult blood test (FOBT) and ultrasonography. We stratified by gender, nationality and quintile of socioeconomic deprivation.

RESULTS

Incidence of utilization rose with age for all procedures but rectoscopy; there was a marked increase from 2005 to 2010 for FOBT and colonoscopy. A strong all-procedures cohort effect was observed, greater for FOBT and colonoscopy. A steady increase of diagnostic procedures utilization started in cohorts born in the late 1950s, with a relative effect rising from 0.91 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.90-0.92] for the 1950 cohort to 5.03 (95% CI, 4.58-5.48) for the 1990 one.

CONCLUSION

We found a growing tendency in younger cohorts to undertake diagnostic procedures, explainable by inappropriate access to endoscopic procedures, that can lead to an incidental diagnosis of CRC. This finding may at least partially explain the observed rising incidence of early-onset CRC.

Administrative healthcare data to predict performance status in lung cancer patients

The dataset includes 4488 patients diagnosed with lung cancer (ICD-O 3[3], C33-C34) between 2010–2012 and 2016–2018 in the territory of the Agency for Health Protection (ATS) of Milan, Italy, and selected from its population cancer registry on the basis of availability of the following information: performance status (PS), age, sex, and stage at diagnosis. The dataset includes also the following variables, extracted from the health databases of the ATS and linked to the variables derived from the cancer registry through deterministic record linkage on a unique key (tax code): Charlson comorbidity index, presence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, number of hospitalizations, outpatient visits, emergency accesses and prescribed drugs in the previous year, and dispensed durable medical equipment in the previous three years. The dataset was used to develop a logistic prediction model for PS, dichotomized as ‘poor’ (ECOG, 3–5) and ‘good’ (ECOG, 0–2), on the basis of all other variables in the dataset. The prediction model was developed on a 50% random subsample of the described dataset (development dataset, n = 2,244) and validated on the remaining half. The area under the curve (AUC) of the model in the development and validation samples were 0.76 and 0.73, respectively. The developed model was used to predict ‘good’ vs. ‘poor’ PS in a sample of patients with advanced lung cancer, from the same registry and years, for which the information was not available. Researchers using registry data, or electronic claims, to perform studies of oncologic therapy effectiveness for lung cancer could use the reported coefficients to predict PS value, dichotomized as ‘good’ or ‘poor’.

Evaluation of the anti-COVID-19 vaccination campaign in the Metropolitan Area of Milan (Lombardy Region, Northern Italy)

OBJECTIVES

to present an evaluation of the campaign for vaccination against COVID-19 in the territory covered by the Agency for Health Protection of the Metropolitan Area of Milan from 01.01.2021 to 30.09.2021.

DESIGN

descriptive study of vaccine adherence; predictive study of the factors associated with vaccine adherence, efficacy of vaccination in terms of hospitalization and mortality, and factors that increase the risk of hospital admission following full vaccination.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

population-based study with subjects aged >18 years eligible for vaccination (N. 2,981,997). An information system obtained by integrating various administrative healthcare sources made it possible to analyse socioeconomic characteristics, COVID-19 related hospitalizations, and general mortality in subjects eligible for vaccination.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

full vaccination (2 doses); COVID-19-related hospitalizations, COVID-19-related hospitalizations occurring more than 15 days after the second dose, general mortality.

RESULTS

in the first nine months of the vaccination campaign, 74.7% of the subjects (N. 2,228,915) was fully vaccinated, whereas 15.6% (N. 465,829) did not even receive one dose. Women have a lower probability of getting vaccinated than men; the 50-59 years and 70+ years age groups emerge as the most problematic to reach, while the younger one (<40) is the most adherent. A social gradient emerged, with residents of more disadvantaged areas progressively less incline to get vaccinated than those living in more affluent areas. Adherence is greater in Italian citizenship and is likely to increase with an increase in the number of chronic conditions. Hospitalizations amounted to 1.22% (N. 5,672) in the unvaccinated population compared to 0.05% (N. 1,013) in the vaccinated population; general mortality was 4.51% (N. 15,198) in the unvaccinated population against 0.32% (N. 8.733) in the vaccinated population. Sociodemographic factors and the presence of previous health conditions are important predictors of hospitalization outcomes even within the fully vaccinated population. Specifically, the highest hazard ratios are found in subjects with heart failure (HR 2.15; 95%CI 1.83-2.53), in immunocompromised patients (HR 2.02; 95%CI 1.52-2.69), and in transplant recipients (HR 1.92; 95%CI 1.10-3.33).

CONCLUSIONS

vaccination campaign adherence is affected by the sociodemographic characteristics of the population and is a determining factor in preventing hospitalizations for COVID-19 and death. The persistent higher risk of hospitalization in chronic subjects following the second dose emphasizes the need to direct booster doses to the more vulnerable. Information systems proved to be effective monitoring tools in the absence of specific trials.

Algorithm for Individual Prediction of COVID-19-Related Hospitalization Based on Symptoms: Development and Implementation Study

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has placed a huge strain on the health care system globally. The metropolitan area of Milan, Italy, was one of the regions most impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide. Risk prediction models developed by combining administrative databases and basic clinical data are needed to stratify individual patient risk for public health purposes.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to develop a stratification tool aimed at improving COVID-19 patient management and health care organization.

METHODS

A predictive algorithm was developed and applied to 36,834 patients with COVID-19 in Italy between March 8 and the October 9, 2020, in order to foresee their risk of hospitalization. Exposures considered were age, sex, comorbidities, and symptoms associated with COVID-19 (eg, vomiting, cough, fever, diarrhea, myalgia, asthenia, headache, anosmia, ageusia, and dyspnea). The outcome was hospitalizations and emergency department admissions for COVID-19. Discrimination and calibration of the model were also assessed.

RESULTS

The predictive model showed a good fit for predicting COVID-19 hospitalization (C-index 0.79) and a good overall prediction accuracy (Brier score 0.14). The model was well calibrated (intercept -0.0028, slope 0.9970). Based on these results, 118,804 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 from October 25 to December 11, 2020, were stratified into low, medium, and high risk for COVID-19 severity. Among the overall study population, 67,030 (56.42%) were classified as low-risk patients; 43,886 (36.94%), as medium-risk patients; and 7888 (6.64%), as high-risk patients. In all, 89.37% (106,179/118,804) of the overall study population was being assisted at home, 9% (10,695/118,804) was hospitalized, and 1.62% (1930/118,804) died. Among those assisted at home, most people (63,983/106,179, 60.26%) were classified as low risk, whereas only 3.63% (3858/106,179) were classified at high risk. According to ordinal logistic regression, the odds ratio (OR) of being hospitalized or dead was 5.0 (95% CI 4.6-5.4) among high-risk patients and 2.7 (95% CI 2.6-2.9) among medium-risk patients, as compared to low-risk patients.

CONCLUSIONS

A simple monitoring system, based on primary care data sets linked to COVID-19 testing results, hospital admissions data, and death records may assist in the proper planning and allocation of patients and resources during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

Residential exposure to traffic-borne pollution as a risk factor for acute cardiocerebrovascular events: a population-based retrospective cohort study in a highly urbanized area

Background

Long-term exposure to traffic-borne noise and air pollution has been variably associated with incidence of acute vascular events, namely acute myocardial infarction, ischaemic stroke and haemorrhagic stroke. This study aims at exploring this association within a highly urbanized city.

Methods

This is a population-based retrospective dynamic cohort study including all residents aged ≥ 35 years in the municipality of Milan over the years 2011–18 (1 087 110 inhabitants). Residential exposure to road traffic noise (day-evening-night levels) and nitrogen dioxide was estimated using a noise predictive model and a land use regression model, respectively. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were performed to assess the incidence of acute vascular events and specific outcomes in single-exposure and two-exposure models including adjustment for sociodemographic confounders, fine particulate matter and surrounding greenness.

Results

A total of 27 282 subjects (2.5%) had an acute vascular event. Models using nitrogen dioxide produced inconsistent results. The strongest effect was observed for noise, with an optimal cut-off for dichotomization set at 70 dBA (hazard ratio 1.025, 95% confidence interval 1.000–1.050). This association was observed specifically for ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke. When stratifying by age group and sex, a remarkable effect was found for haemorrhagic stroke in men aged <60 years (hazard ratio 1.439, 95% confidence interval 1.156–1.792).

Conclusions

Living by roads with a day-evening-night noise level above 70 dBA exerts a small but tangible independent effect on the risks of both ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke. It is urgent to propose mitigation measures against pollution and noise originating from vehicular traffic in order to reduce their impact, especially in the population younger than 60 years.

Immune checkpoint inhibitors at any treatment line in advanced NSCLC: Real-world overall survival in a large Italian cohort

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the average treatment effect of immune checkpoint inhibitors in any line of treatment in a 2016-2018 population-based cohort of patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The cohort, and information on the tumor, were derived from the cancer registry of the Agency for Health Protection of Milan, Italy. Inclusion criteria were adult age, microscopically confirmed NSCLC, stage IIIB or IV at diagnosis, and having received at least one line of treatment. Treatment with all licensed anti PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors was derived from inpatients and outpatients' pharmaceutical databases of the ATS and vital status at 31 December 2019 from the health registry office of the Lombardy region. We investigated, with a causal approach, the relationship between survival and anti PD-1/PD-L1 treatment at any line constructing a directed acyclic graph and fitting a Marginal Structural Cox Model (MSCM).

RESULTS

Of 1673 subjects, 324 received anti PD-1/PD-L1 at any treatment line. Overall, one-year survival was 61.1% (95 %CI, 55.6-66.2%) in the group treated with anti PD-1/PD-L1 at any line and 31.1% (95 %CI, 28.6-33.5%) among not treated. One-year hazard ratio (HR) of death for not treated vs. treated was 2.15 (95 %CI, 1.91-2.41), decreasing to 1.23 (95 %CI, 1.03-1.46) at two years and reaching one in the third year.

CONCLUSION

In un unselected population-based cohort with advanced lung cancer, treatment with anti PD-1/PD-L1 at any line lowered the hazard of death up to two-years from date of diagnosis, confirming the efficacy of immunotherapy outside clinical trials.

Validazione di un nuovo algoritmo per identificare le anomalie cromosomiche utilizzando i flussi sanitari correnti: il Registro delle malformazioni congenite di Milano

OBJECTIVES

to assess the potential of a new algorithm based on current healthcare databases to identify potential cases of malformation, particularly chromosomal anomalies associated with terminations of pregnancy.

DESIGN

retrospective observational study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Registry of Congenital Anomalies of Milan, live births, still births, and termination of pregnancies for fetal anomalies from 2012 to 2016, detected by using current healthcare data.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

prevalence between 2012 and 2016 of congenital malformations recorded by Milan's Registry of Congenital Anomalies, with particular regard to chromosomal anomaly trends. Variation in the percentage of malformations detected from terminations of pregnancy.

RESULTS

prevalence of malformations increased from 270 in 2012 to 283 per 10,000 in 2016; specifically, chromosomal abnormalities increased from 35 to 51 per 10,000 births. The algorithm detected a greater proportion of anomalies associated with therapeutic abortion, especially with respect to chromosomal anomalies, with an increase from 57.7% in 2012 to 75.8% in 2016 (test for trend p=0.002).

CONCLUSIONS

the proposed algorithm identified a greater number of chromosomal anomalies that caused termination of pregnancy and may be applied to existing Italian registries to evaluate the quality of healthcare services, in particular with regard to the effectiveness of prenatal trisomy screening policies. The algorithm may also be used where no active surveillance systems are present, as well as in epidemiological studies, to assess environmental impact on congenital anomalies.

Development of a multivariable model predicting mortality risk from comorbidities in an Italian cohort of 18,286 confirmed COVID-19 cases aged 40 years or older

OBJECTIVES

to develop a risk prediction model for 30-day mortality from COVID‑19 in an Italian cohort aged 40 years or older.

DESIGN

a population-based retrospective cohort study on prospectively collected data was conducted.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

the cohort included all swab positive cases aged 40 years older (No. 18,286) among residents in the territory of the Milan's Agency for Health Protection (ATS-MI) up to 27.04.2020. Data on comorbidities were obtained from the ATS administrative database of chronic conditions.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

to predict 30-day mortality risk, a multivariable logistic regression model, including age, gender, and the selected conditions, was developed following the TRIPOD guidelines. Discrimination and calibration of the model were assessed.

RESULTS

after age and gender, the most important predictors of 30-day mortality were diabetes, tumour in first-line treatment, chronic heart failure, and complicated diabetes. The bootstrap-validated c-index was 0.78, which suggests that this model is useful in predicting death after COVID-19 infection in swab positive cases. The model had good discrimination (Brier score 0.13) and was well calibrated (Index of prediction accuracy of 14.8%).

CONCLUSIONS

a risk prediction model for 30-day mortality in a large COVID-19 cohort aged 40 years or older was developed. In a new epidemic wave, it would help to define groups at different risk and to identify high-risk subjects to target for specific prevention and therapeutic strategies.

Association Between Smoking And Cancers Among Women: Results From The FRiCaM Multisite Cohort Study

Background: Smoking is one of the leading causes of death worldwide, and it is strongly associated with several human cancers. However, the differential effects of cigarette smoke on the development and progression of different types of cancer remain unclear, and related data are limited.

Methods: In this longitudinal cohort study conducted among 75,324 women aged 41-76 years, we aimed to evaluate the effect of exposure to tobacco smoke on cancer development. The participants completed a questionnaire assessing socio-demographic characteristics, anthropometric measures, health status, and lifestyle habits, including smoking and dietary habits; Cox proportional hazards regression modelling was used to evaluate the association between smoking and 21 different types of cancer.

Results: After a 15-year follow-up, we identified 9,487 cases of cancer through record linkage with the Cancer Registry of Milan. Smoking was found to be positively associated with all neoplasms, with a Hazard Ratio (HR) of 1.10 (95% Confidence Interval (CI), 1.04-1.16). Regarding the specific types, we found the following associations: cancer of the oral cavity HR = 2.63 ( 95% CI 1.72-4.01]), oesophagus HR = 3.09 (95% CI 1.37-6.96), stomach HR = 1.52 (95% CI 1.10-2.11), pancreas HR = 1.69 (95% CI 1.29-2.21), larynx HR= 34.81 (95% CI 8.07-150.14), lung HR = 8.48 (95% CI 7.09-10.14), cervix uteri HR = 2.51 (95% CI 1.38-4.57), and bladder and urinary tract HR = 5.67 ( 95% CI 3.96-8.14); lymphoma HR = 1.37 (95% CI 1.03-1.83); and colorectal cancer HR = 1.30 (95% CI 1.11-1.51).

Conclusions: Our results thus demonstrate how smoke exposure increases the risk of several types of cancer. Considering the increasing prevalence of smoking among women, our results highlight the need to prioritize the development of anti-smoking campaigns targeted at women in order to contrast the evident gender inequality with respect to healthcare.

Strategy to identify priority groups for COVID-19 vaccination: A population based cohort study

Background

Evidence from COVID-19 outbreak shows that individuals with specific chronic diseases are at higher risk of severe prognosis after infection. Public health authorities are developing vaccination programmes with priorities that minimize the risk of mortality and severe events in individuals and communities. We propose an evidence-based strategy that targets the frailest subjects whose timely vaccination is likely to minimize future deaths and preserve the resilience of the health service by preventing infections.

Methods

The cohort includes 146,087 cases with COVID-19 diagnosed in 2020 in Milan (3.49 million inhabitants). Individual level data on 42 chronic diseases and vital status updated as of January 21, 2021, were available in administrative data. Analyses were performed in three sub-cohorts of age (16–64, 65–79 and 80+ years) and comorbidities affecting mortality were selected by means of LASSO cross-validated conditional logistic regression. Simplified models based on previous results identified high-risk categories worth targeting with highest priority. Results adjusted by age and gender, were reported in terms of odds ratios and 95%CI.

Results

The final models include as predictors of mortality (7,667 deaths, 5.2%) 10, 12, and 5 chronic diseases, respectively. The older age categories shared, as risk factors, chronic renal failure, chronic heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, Parkinson disease and psychiatric diseases. In the younger age category, predictors included neoplasm, organ transplantation and psychiatric conditions. Results were consistent with those obtained on mortality at 60 days from diagnosis (6,968 deaths).

Conclusion

This approach defines a two-level stratification for priorities in the vaccination that can easily be applied by health authorities, eventually adapted to local results in terms of number and types of comorbidities, and rapidly updated with current data. After the early phase of vaccination, data on effectiveness and safety will give the opportunity to revise prioritization and discuss the future approach in the remaining population.

Strategy to reduce adverse health outcomes in subjects highly vulnerable to COVID-19: results from a population-based study in Northern Italy

OBJECTIVES

This study describes a new strategy to reduce the impact of COVID-19 on the elderly and other clinically vulnerable subjects, where general practitioners (GPs) play an active role in managing high-risk patients, reducing adverse health outcomes.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Population-based study including subjects resident in the province of Milan and Lodi.

PARTICIPANTS

127 735 residents older than 70 years, with specific chronic conditions.

INTERVENTIONS

We developed a predictive algorithm for overall mortality risk based on demographic and clinical characteristics. All residents older than 70 years were classified as being at low or high risk of death from COVID-19 infection according to the algorithm. The high-risk group was assigned to their GPs for telephone triage and consultation. The high-risk cohort was divided into two groups based on GP intervention: patients who were not contacted and patients who were contacted by their GPs.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Overall mortality, COVID-19 morbidity and hospitalisation.

RESULTS

Patients with increased risk of death from COVID-19 were 127 735; 495 669 patients were not at high risk and were not included in the intervention. Out of the high-risk subjects, 79 110 were included but not contacted by their GPs, while 48 625 high-risk subjects were included and contacted. Overall mortality, morbidity and hospitalisation was higher in high-risk patients compared with low-risk populations. High-risk patients contacted by their GPs had a 50% risk reduction in COVID-19 mortality, and a 70% risk reduction in morbidity and hospitalisation for COVID-19 compared with non-contacted patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The study showed that, during the COVID-19 outbreak, involvement of GPs and changes in care management of high-risk groups produced a significant reduction in all adverse health outcomes.

Assessing the Impact of Individual Characteristics and Neighborhood Socioeconomic Status During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Provinces of Milan and Lodi

Social inequalities in health are known to be influenced by the socioeconomic status of the territory in which people live. In the context of the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, this study is aimed at assessing the role of 5 area-level indicators in shaping the risk of contagion in the provinces of Milan and Lodi (Lombardy, Italy), namely: educational disadvantage, unemployment, housing crowding, mobility, and population density. The study area includes the municipalities at the origin of the first Italian epidemic outbreak. Data on COVID-19 patients from the Integrated Datawarehouse for COVID Analysis in Milan were used and matched with aggregate-level data from the National Institute of Statistics Italy (Istat). Multilevel logistic regression models were used to estimate the association between the census block-level predictors and COVID-19 infection, independently of age, sex, country of birth, and preexisting health conditions. All the variables were significantly associated with the outcome, with different effects before and after the lockdown and according to the province of residence. This suggests a pattern of socioeconomic inequalities in the outbreak, which should be taken into account in the eventuality of future epidemics to contain their spread and its related disparities.

Trend of pneumonia diagnosis in emergency departments as a COVID-19 surveillance system: a time series study

OBJECTIVE

In Italy, the first diagnosis of COVID-19 was confirmed on 20 February 2020 in the Lombardy region. Given the rapid spread of the infection in the population, it was suggested that in Europe, and specifically in Italy, the virus had already been present in the last months of 2019. In this paper, we aim to evaluate the hypothesis on the early presence of the virus in Italy by analysing data on trends of access to emergency departments (EDs) of subjects with a diagnosis of pneumonia during the 2015-2020 period.

DESIGN

Time series cohort study.

SETTING

We collected data on visits due to pneumonia between 1 October 2015 and 31 May 2020 in all EDs of the Agency for Health Protection of Milan (ATS of Milan). Trend in the winter of 2019-2020 was compared with those in the previous 4 years in order to identify unexpected signals potentially associated with the occurrence of the pandemic. Aggregated data were analysed using a Poisson regression model adjusted for seasonality and influenza outbreaks. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES : Daily pneumonia-related visits in EDs. RESULTS : In the studied period, we observed 105 651 pneumonia-related ED visits. Compared with the expected, a lower occurrence was observed in January 2020, while an excess of pneumonia visits started in the province of Lodi on 21 February 2020, and almost 10 days later was observed in the remaining territory of the ATS of Milan. Overall, the peak in excess was found on 17 March 2020 (369 excess visits compared with previous years, 95% CI 353 to 383) and ended in May 2020, the administrative end of the Italian lockdown. CONCLUSIONS : An early warning system based on routinely collected administrative data could be a feasible and low-cost strategy to monitor the actual situation of the virus spread both at local and national levels.

Indicators of guideline-concordant care in lung cancer defined with a modified Delphi method and piloted in a cohort of over 5,800 cases

BACKGROUND

To identify indicators of guideline-concordant care in lung cancer, to implement such indicators with cancer registry data linked to health databases, and to pilot them in a cohort of patients from the cancer registry of the Milan Province.

METHODS

Thirty-four indicators were selected by revision of main guidelines by cancer epidemiologists, and then evaluated by a multidisciplinary panel of clinicians involved in lung cancer care and working on the pathway of lung cancer diagnosis and treatment in the Lombardy region, Italy. With a modified Delphi method, they assessed for each indicator the content validity as a quality measure of the care pathway, the degree of modifiability from the health professional, and the relevance to the health professional. Feasibility was assessed using the cancer registry and the routine health records of the Lombardy region. Feasible indicators were then calculated in the cohort of lung cancer patients diagnosed in 2007-2012 derived from the cancer registry of the Milan Province. Criterion validity was assessed reviewing clinical records of a random sample of 114 patients (threshold for acceptable discordance ≤20%). Finally, reliability was evaluated at the provider level.

RESULTS

Initially, 34 indicators were proposed for evaluation in the first Delphi round. Of the finally 22 selected indicators, 3 were not feasible because the required information was actually not available. The remaining 19 were calculated on the pilot cohort. After assessment of criterion validity (3 eliminated), 16 indicators were retained in the final set and evaluated for reliability.

CONCLUSION

The developed and piloted set of indicators is now available to implement and monitor, over time, quality initiatives for lung cancer care in the studied health system.

Assessment of the Overall Mortality during the COVID-19 Outbreak in the Provinces of Milan and Lodi (Lombardy Region, Northern Italy)

OBJECTIVES

to describe the overall mortality increase in the provinces of Milan and Lodi - area covered by the Agency for Health Protection of Milan - during the COVID-19 epidemic in the first four months of 2020, compare it with the same time period in the years 2016-2019, and evaluate to what extent the mortality can be directly attributed to the outbreak.

DESIGN

cohort study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

using a new information system developed during the pandemic, we gathered data on the number of daily deaths in the population residing in the provinces of Milan and Lodi by Local Health Unit (ASST) and age groups. To describe the case fatality of COVID-19, we performed a record linkage with a database specially constructed during the epidemic to identify deaths that occurred in confirmed cases.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

mortality and excess mortality were analysed by comparing the number of observed deaths in the first 4 months of 2020 with the average deaths of the years 2016-2019 in the same calendar period and with expected deaths, estimated using a Poisson model. Furthermore, a measure of relative risk was calculated as observed/expected ratio with a 95% confidence interval.

RESULTS

the increase in mortality for all causes occurring in the study population in the first 4 months of 2020 was 48.8%, 30.8% for ages between 60 and 69, 43.9% for ages between 70 and 79, and 56.7% for subjects above 80 years of age. Focusing on the epidemic period, from 1 March to 30 April, the excess is quantifiable as more than 2-fold and mainly concerns the population over 60 years of age. The excess mortality was observed in all local health units (ASSTs). The highest increments were in the province of Lodi and the North-East of Milan (ASST Nord). In the ASSTs of Lodi and Melegnano-Martesana the mortality excess was detectable from March 15th, while for the other ASSTs the increase began in the first week of April.

CONCLUSIONS

evaluation of overall mortality in the provinces of Milan and Lodi during the first wave of the Covid-19 epidemic showed a significant excess compared to the first 4 months of the years 2016-2019, mainly in the population over 60 years of age. However, this excess cannot be completely attributed directly to COVID-19 itself. This phenomenon was more intense in the Lodi ASST, with daily deaths up to 5 times higher than expected.

Describing the epidemic trends of COVID-19 in the area covered by Agency for Health Protection of the Metropolitan Area of Milan

OBJECTIVES

to describe the epidemic trends of COVID-19 over time and by area in the territory covered by Milan's Agency for Health Protection (ATS-MI) from February to May 2020.

DESIGN

descriptive study of COVID-19 cases.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

a new information system was developed to record COVID-19 cases with positive nasopharyngeal swab. Patients resident in the area covered by ATS-MI with symptom onset between February and May 2020 were selected. Different epidemic periods were considered based on the timeline of the various regional and national containment measures.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

case fatality ratios, incidence rates, and reproduction number by epidemic period and sub-area of ATS-MI.

RESULTS

a total of 27,017 swab-positive COVID-19 cases were included. Mean age was 65 years and males were 45%. Incidence in the ATS-MI area was 776 per 100,000 population. The number of deaths was 4,660, the crude case fatality ratio was 17.3%, higher in males (21.2%) than in females (14.0%). The estimated reproduction number registered its peak (3.0) in the early stages of the epidemic and subsequently decreased. Territorial differences were observed in the epidemic spread, with a higher incidence in the Lodi area.

CONCLUSIONS

estimated incidence and case fatality ratios were higher than national estimates for Italy. Each ATS-MI area had different epidemic spread patterns.

Metabolic syndrome and risk of COVID-19-related hospitalization: a large, population-based cohort study carried out during the first European outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Metropolitan area of Milan (Lombardy Region, Northern Italy)

BACKGROUND

since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, specific characteristics of the infected subjects appeared to be associated with a severe disease, leading to hospitalization or death.

OBJECTIVES

to evaluate the association between three components of the metabolic syndrome (diabetes mellitus, dyslipidaemia, and hypertension), alone and in combination, and risk of hospitalization in subjects with nasopharyngeal swab-confirmed COVID-19.

DESIGN

cohort study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

the study subjects were all COVID-19 cases diagnosed in the area of the Agency for Health Protection of the Metropolitan Area of Milan (Lombardy Region, Northern Italy) between 10.02.2020 and 25.04.2020, whose data were gathered with an ad hoc information system developed at the beginning of the pandemic.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

the association between metabolic syndrome components (alone and in combination) and hospitalization (both in any ward and in intensive care unit) was measured by means of cause-specific Cox models with gender, age, and comorbidities as potential confounders.

RESULTS

the cohort included 15,162 subjects followed from diagnosis up to 20.07.2020. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of hospitalization in any ward estimated by the Cox model were 1.26 for uncomplicated diabetes mellitus (95%CI 1.18-1.34); 1.21 for complicated diabetes mellitus (95%CI 1.05-1.39); 1.07 for dyslipidaemia (95%CI 1.00-1.14); and 1.11 for hypertension (95%CI 1.05-1.17). When all components coexisted in the same subject, the HR was 1.46 (95%CI 1.31-1.62). A significant increase in risk of hospitalization in intensive care unit was found for uncomplicated diabetes mellitus (HR 1.38; 95%CI 1.15-1.66).

CONCLUSIONS

this population-based study confirms that metabolic syndrome components increase the risk of hospitalization for COVID-19. The HR increases in an additive manner when the three components are simultaneously present.

Association between autoimmune diseases and COVID-19 as assessed in both a test-negative case-control and population case-control design

Background

COVID-19 epidemic has paralleled with the so called infodemic, where countless pieces of information have been disseminated on putative risk factors for COVID-19. Among those, emerged the notion that people suffering from autoimmune diseases (AIDs) have a higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Methods

The cohort included all COVID-19 cases residents in the Agency for Health Protection (AHP) of Milan that, from the beginning of the outbreak, developed a web-based platform that traced positive and negative cases as well as related contacts. AIDs subjects were defined ad having one the following autoimmune disease: rheumatoid arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, systemic sclerosis, Sjogren disease, ankylosing spondylitis, myasthenia gravis, Hashimoto’s disease, acquired autoimmune hemolytic anemia, and psoriatic arthritis. To investigate whether AID subjects are at increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and whether they have worse prognosis than AIDs-free subjects once infected, we performed a combined analysis of a test-negative design case–control study, a case–control with test-positive as cases, and one with test-negative as cases (CC-NEG).

Results

During the outbreak, the Milan AHP endured, up to April 27th 2020, 20,364 test-positive and 34,697 test-negative subjects. We found no association between AIDs and being positive to COVID-19, but a statistically significant association between AIDs and being negative to COVID-19 in the CC-NEG. If, as likely, test-negative subjects underwent testing because of respiratory infection symptoms, these results imply that autoimmune diseases may be a risk factor for respiratory infections in general (including COVID-19), but they are not a specific risk factor for COVID-19. Furthermore, when infected by SARS-CoV-2, AIDs subjects did not have a worse prognosis compared to non-AIDs subjects. Results highlighted a potential unbalance in the testing campaign, which may be correlated to the characteristics of the tested person, leading specific frail population to be particularly tested.

Conclusions

Lack of availability of sound scientific knowledge inevitably lead unreliable news to spread over the population, preventing people to disentangle them form reliable information. Even if additional studies are needed to replicate and strengthen our results, these findings represent initial evidence to derive recommendations based on actual data for subjects with autoimmune diseases.

Paraneoplastic Neurological Syndromes: Study of Prevalence in a Province of the Lombardy Region, Italy

Paraneoplastic neurological syndromes (PNSs) are a heterogeneous group of rare immune-mediated diseases associated with cancer. The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of PNSs in the province of Brescia. PNS prevalence was calculated using the Lombardy regional hospital admission records from 1998 to 2003. We used the website "Epidemiologic and Economic Atlas of Hospital Activities in Lombardy" and the "International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems". In the province of Brescia, we found 54 cases of PNSs, 29 with subacute neuropathies, five with paraneoplastic cerebellar degeneration and 20 with encephalomyelitis. Peripheral nervous system diseases were the most frequent neurological disorders. In Lombardy, the number of PNS patients admitted was 322 (133 with encephalomyelitis, 21 with paraneoplastic cerebellar degeneration, 166 with polyneuropathies and two with optic degeneration). In Lombardy, the prevalence of PNSs was 25 in 100,000 hospital admissions and 5.92 in 100,000 for the Lombardy population. Our results show a discrete presence of PNS patients in the province of Brescia and in the Lombardy region as a whole.

Patterns of care and cost profiles of women with breast cancer in Italy: EPICOST study based on real world data

OBJECTIVES

To estimate total direct health care costs associated to diagnosis and treatment of women with breast cancer in Italy, and to investigate their distribution by service type according to the disease pathway and patient characteristics.

METHODS

Data on patients provided by population-based Cancer Registries are linked at individual level with data on health-care services and corresponding claims from administrative databases. A combination of cross-sectional approach and a threephase of care decomposition model with initial, continuing and final phases-of-care defined according to time occurred since diagnosis and disease outcome is adopted. Direct estimation of cancer-related costs is obtained.

RESULTS

Study cohort included 49,272 patients, 15.2% were in the initial phase absorbing 42% of resources, 79.7% in the continuing phase absorbing 44% of resources and 5.1% in the final phase absorbing 14% of resources. Hospitalization was the most important cost driver, accounting for over 55% of the total costs.

CONCLUSIONS

This paper represents the first attempt in Italy to estimate the economic burden of cancer at population level taking into account the entire disease pathway and using multiple current health care databases. The evidence produced by the study can be used to better plan resources allocation. The model proposed is replicable to countries with individual health care information on services and claims.

Evidence-based governance: the role of epidemiological indicators in negotiation with stakeholders

Following the enactment of Regional Law 23/2015 in Lombardy, Agencies for Health Protection (AHP) were set up with programming, monitoring and control tasks on all areas of public health, including hospital performances. It was therefore necessary to develop a new efficient system of negotiation with stakeholders. A summary document has been created for each hospital that highlight the areas to be improved. This report is based on the use of updated indicators validated nationally and internationally, relating to average hospital stays, volumes and outcomes. Main sources were the National Outcome Program, the Ministerial Decree 70/2015 and the Network of Regions.

As comparison values, the thresholds from international literature or Italian legislation. The report was sent to the stakeholders in advance, initially in paper format then through a dedicated portal, before the discussion of the contractual objectives with Executive Board, Epidemiology Unit and the Department of Planning, Purchase and Control. The achievement of the objectives entails a substantial economic benefit, from year to year more and more conspicuous.

The results accomplished were twofold. On one hand there was the improvement of several indicators: for AHP as a whole, such as the fracture of the femur operated within 48 hours went from 50% in 2015 to 74% in 2019; for individual hospitals, for example, some hospitals that did not perform cholecystectomies in day surgery have started to do them. On the other hand, it was possible to detect system critical issues that made it difficult to achieve the objectives for the stakeholders.

Linking the contractual objectives to epidemiological indicators discussed collectively was productive to both AHP and stakeholders and allows objective and constant monitoring of the progresses and difficulties encountered.

Key messages

Internal cooperation in the AHP and direct dialogue with stakeholders are necessary to achieve ambitious objectives. The use of validated epidemiological indicators as contractual objectives makes the assessment and contracting process of hospitals more transparent and objective.

Traffic noise, air pollutants and incidence of diabetes mellitus: a population cohort study in Milan

Background

Recent evidence suggests a link between long-term exposure to traffic-related pollution and incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus, a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in adults. The present study aims at exploring this association in a highly urbanized setting such as the city of Milan.

Methods

This is a population-based retrospective dynamic cohort study in the municipality of Milan. All residents aged &gt;35 years with no prior diagnosis of diabetes were included (N = 1096654), with follow-up ranging from January 2011 to June 2019. The residential address of each subject was geocoded and assigned mean values of traffic noise at the day-evening-night level (Lden, dB) and NO2 concentration (µg/m3) using a noise predictive model and a NO2 land-use regression model with 30x30 m grid resolution. Associations with a new diagnosis of diabetes were assessed with Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, sex, nationality and a socio-economic deprivation index. A dichotomous classification of addresses as city center/suburban based on the External Ring Road as a delimiter was also used for a stratified analysis.

Results

New diagnoses of diabetes occurred in 26134 subjects (2.4%). Models using NO2, either continuous or ranked into quintiles, yielded no significant results. When using noise to categorize traffic intensity (&lt;65/65-69/70-74/≥75 dB), a positive yet non-significant trend was shown. At stratified analysis, increases in risk were found for the two highest levels of exposure in the city center (70-74 dB: HR 1.141, 95% C.I. 1.013-1.284; ≥75 dB: HR 1.185, 95% C.I. 1.058-1.328).

Conclusions

Residential proximity to high-traffic roads categorized according to traffic noise was found to be associated with an increased risk of being diagnosed with diabetes. The effect is evident in the city center, whereas in the suburban area it might be masked by individual and lifestyle factors that ought to be investigated in future studies.

Key messages

Living close to high-traffic roads in a highly urbanized environment increases the risk of diabetes. Policies aimed at reducing traffic intensity in large cities may lower the incidence of this highly prevalent chronic condition.

Traffic-borne pollution as a risk factor for acute vascular events: a population study in Milan

Background

Traffic-borne noise and air pollution have both been associated with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, albeit with inconsistent findings and issues of collinearity/mutual confounding. The present study aims at evaluating the role of long-term exposure to traffic-borne pollution as a risk factor for acute vascular events in a highly urbanized setting.

Methods

This is a population-based retrospective dynamic cohort study including all residents aged &gt;35 years in the municipality of Milan over the years 2011-2018 (N = 1087110). A noise predictive model and a NO2 land-use regression model were used to assign mean values of traffic noise at the day-evening-night level (Lden, dB) and NO2 concentration (µg/m3) to the residential address of each subject. Cox proportional hazards models were performed to assess the incidence of acute vascular events, with adjustment for potential confounders (age, sex, nationality, a socio-economic deprivation index) and sub-analyses for different outcomes (acute myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke).

Results

A total of 27282 subjects (2.5%) had an acute vascular event. Models using NO2 yielded inconsistent results. When using Lden as a proxy of traffic intensity, there was a positive trend in risk with increasing levels of exposure, with an optimal cut-off for dichotomization set at 70 dB (HR 1.025, 95% C.I. 1.000-1.050). The association was observed specifically for ischemic stroke (HR 1.043, 95% C.I. 1.003-1.085) and hemorrhagic stroke (HR 1.036, 95% C.I. 0.969-1.107). When stratifying by age group and sex, a remarkable effect was found for hemorrhagic stroke in men aged &lt;60 (HR 1.439, 95% C.I. 1.156-1.792).

Conclusions

Living close to high-traffic roads was found to exert a small but tangible effect on the risk of stroke. The varying effects observed for specific outcomes and in different age and sex groups are likely due to different pathogenetic mechanisms at play, which warrant further investigation.

Key messages

Residential proximity to roads with high traffic intensity (mean traffic noise level over 70 dB) is a risk factor for stroke, especially for hemorrhagic stroke in middle-aged men. Further interventions aimed at reducing traffic intensity in highly urbanized cities may be justified in order to reduce morbidity and mortality from stroke.

Forecasting emergency admissions in the city of Milan to predict overflow: a 2-day warning system

Background

The emergency department (ED) is one of the most critical area in any hospitals. In Italy, the mean waiting time is increasing causing potentially ED overflow and a detrimental effect on quality of care.

Methods

We collected total daily ED visits between 2014 and 2019 in the five major hospitals of Milan. To predict daily volumes, we used a regression model with ARIMA errors. Predictors included were weekly and yearly periodicity, meteorological and environmental variables, information on influenza epidemics and festivities. Parameters have been calibrated on training datasets (2014-2018) and successively validated on 2019, accuracy of prediction have been evaluated with the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Finally, we evaluated the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak calculating the proportion of ED accesses by triage levels, before and after the outbreak.

Results

Between 2014 and 2019 there have been 2 million of ED visits in the hospitals of Milan. We found different patterns of ED visits across age and days: children (0-14 years) tended to visit ED more likely on weekends while adults and senior people on Mondays. Results confirmed the role of meteorological and environmental variables, and the presence of yearly and weekly pattern. We found high correlation between observed and predicted value with a MAPE globally smaller than 8.1%. During the COVID-19 outbreak, the number of white triage ED accesses was reduced up to 71%.

Conclusions

Results permitted to develop a 2-day ED warning system combining forecast data provided by ARPA Lombardia. This is crucial in a system where inappropriate emergency admissions are still high where the analysis conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic period suggested a dramatic reduction in the number of daily ED access of lower triages.

Key messages

The ability to forecast future demands would be a valuable support in a system of limited resources, which must therefore be used in the best way.

Environmental and meteorological variable have a moderate effect on emergency admissions.

Residential distance from high-voltage overhead power lines and risk of Alzheimer's dementia and Parkinson's disease: a population-based case-control study in a metropolitan area of Northern Italy

Background

The association between the extremely low-frequency magnetic field generated by overhead power lines and neurodegenerative disease is still a matter of debate.

Methods

A population-based case-control study was carried out on the residents in the Milan metropolitan area between 2011 and 2016 to evaluate the possible association between exposure to extremely low-frequency magnetic fields generated by high-voltage overhead power lines and Alzheimer's dementia and Parkinson's disease. A statistical analysis was performed on cases and controls matched by sex, year of birth and municipality of residence (with a case to controls ratio of 1 : 4) using conditional logistic regression models adjusted for socio-economic deprivation and distance from the major road network as potential confounders.

Results

Odds ratios for residents <50 m from the source of exposure compared with residents at ≥600 m turned out to be 1.11 (95% confidence interval: 0.95–1.30) for Alzheimer's dementia and 1.09 (95% confidence interval: 0.92–1.30) for Parkinson's disease.

Conclusions

The finding of a weak association between exposure to the extremely low-frequency magnetic field and neurodegenerative diseases suggests the continuation of research on this topic. Moreover, the low consistency between the results of the already existing studies emphasises the importance of increasingly refined study designs.

Emergency attendance for acute hyper- and hypoglycaemia in the adult diabetic population of the metropolitan area of Milan: quantifying the phenomenon and studying its predictors

BACKGROUND

We quantified, among diabetic adults, the frequency, costs, and factors associated with visits to the emergency department (EDs) and subsequent hospitalizations for acute hypoglycaemic and hyperglycaemic events.

METHODS

We included adults with diabetes residing in the Milan Agency for Health Protection between 2015 and 2017. From healthcare databases, we identified demographic variables, comorbidities, type of treatment, insulin treatment duration, previous ED attendances for acute glycaemic events, and two indicators of glycaemic monitoring. Using a validated ICD-9-CM coding algorithm, we identified all ED attendances for acute glycaemic events from the ED database and calculated their incidence. We computed the direct costs from health databases and presented them as average annual mean costs for those having had at least an ED attendance. The analysis of the association between the number of ED attendances and potential determinants was performed using zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. These two-part models concomitantly estimate two sets of parameters: the odds-ratios (ORs) of having no attendances and the incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of attendance.

RESULTS

The cohort included 168,285 subjects, 70% of subjects were older than 64 years, 56% were males, and 26% were treated with insulin. The incidence of acute glycaemic events for those attending the ED was 7.0 per 1000 patient-years, followed by hospitalization 26.0% of the time. The total annual direct cost for ED attendances due to acute glycaemic events was 174,000 €. Type of antidiabetic treatment had the strongest association with ED attendances for hypoglycaemia. Patients assuming insulin only had a lower probability of having no attendances (OR compared to those who assumed non-insulin antidiabetic drugs =0.01, 95% CI = 0.00-0.02). These patients also had the highest rate of hyperglycaemic episodes (IRR = 7.7, 95% CI = 5.1-11.7 for insulin only vs. non-insulin antidiabetic drugs). Subjects having had a previous episode of the same type leading to an ED visit had a higher rate of subsequent attendances (IRR for hypoglycaemia = 5.3, 95% CI = 3.9-7.3 and IRR for hyperglycaemia = 3.7, 95% CI = 1.3-10.2).

CONCLUSION

Insulin treatment and having had a prior acute glycaemic event leading to an ED visit were major predictors of ED attendance for hyper and hypoglycaemia in a population of adults with diabetes.

Large community-acquired Legionnaires' disease outbreak caused by Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1, Italy, July to August 2018

In July 2018, a large outbreak of Legionnaires' disease (LD) caused by Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 (Lp1) occurred in Bresso, Italy. Fifty-two cases were diagnosed, including five deaths. We performed an epidemiological investigation and prepared a map of the places cases visited during the incubation period. All sites identified as potential sources were investigated and sampled. Association between heavy rainfall and LD cases was evaluated in a case-crossover study. We also performed a case-control study and an aerosol dispersion investigation model. Lp1 was isolated from 22 of 598 analysed water samples; four clinical isolates were typed using monoclonal antibodies and sequence-based typing. Four Lp1 human strains were ST23, of which two were Philadelphia and two were France-Allentown subgroup. Lp1 ST23 France-Allentown was isolated only from a public fountain. In the case-crossover study, extreme precipitation 5-6 days before symptom onset was associated with increased LD risk. The aerosol dispersion model showed that the fountain matched the case distribution best. The case-control study demonstrated a significant eightfold increase in risk for cases residing near the public fountain. The three studies and the matching of clinical and environmental Lp1 strains identified the fountain as the source responsible for the epidemic.

Latent composite indicators for evaluating adherence to guidelines in patients with a colorectal cancer diagnosis

Evidence-based guidelines for the correct management of cancer patients are developed on the idea that timely care can improve health prognoses and quality of life.The aim of this paper is to evaluate the adherence of clinical pathways to clinical guidelines provided at the hospital level, for colorectal cancer care.By using a retrospective observational study, we proposed a method for associating each patient to a healthcare provider and modeling adherence as a latent construct governed by a set of 10 influential indicators. These indicators measure the adherence to specific guidelines for diagnosis, surgical treatment, chemotherapy, and follow-up. The model used was that of the item response theory (IRT). When evaluating providers, the IRT allows for a comparison of indicators in terms of their discriminating ability and difficulty, and in terms of their adherence to guidelines. The IRT results were compared with non-latent methods: numerator-based weight and denominator-based weight.A strong degree of coherence of the indicators in measuring adherence, and a high level of overall agreement between latent and non-latent methods were noted. The IRT approach demonstrated similar providers' evaluations between endoscopy and histological assessment indicators. The greatest discriminating ability among providers could be attributed to all diagnostic exams, while the lowest was associated with follow-up endoscopies. The most difficult indicator to achieve was fecal occult blood test, while follow-up imaging was the easiest.In a decision-making framework, valuable indications can be derived from the use of IRT models rather than weighting methods. Using IRTs, we were able to highlight the principal indicators in terms of strength of discrimination, and to isolate those that merely duplicated information.

Cancer incidence and congenital anomalies evaluation in the contaminated sites of Sesto San Giovanni - the SENTIERI Project

The Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research defines national priority contaminated sites (NPCSs) as land where hazardous substances are likely to pose a risk to human health. SENTIERI was the first national project evaluating the health status of residents in NPCSs. We have extended, for the site of Sesto San Giovanni, the evaluation to cancer incidence and congenital anomalies (CAs). We have found an overall significant negative association between living in the NPCS and overall cancer incidence in all ages and no association in paediatric, adolescent and young adults' population. We have found an excess risk for bladder cancer, leukaemia, lymphoid leukaemia and chronic lymphocytic leukaemia in men and for lung and breast cancer in women. For the paediatric and adolescent population, we have found an excess in embryonic tumours. Total CAs were not different from expected, while we have found excesses regarding ear, face and neck, digestive system and chromosomal defects.

Do autistic patients change healthcare services utilisation through the transition age? An Italian longitudinal retrospective study

OBJECTIVES

This paper aims to provide an estimate of the prevalence rate of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in 8-year-olds in 2017 based on administrative databases and to investigate the change in healthcare service use during the healthcare transition age of 18.

DESIGN

This research is based on a longitudinal retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

The data is drawn from the Italian Administrative Healthcare Database (2010-2017).

PARTICIPANTS

We identified 5607 ASD patients; 331 ASD patients from 2012 to 2015 in the calendar year of their 18th birthday were selected and their health service utilisation during a 5-year period-ranging from 2 years preceding and succeeding their 18th year-were investigated.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Prevalence, incidence and proportion of ASD patients receiving specific healthcare services were included in the outcome measures.

RESULTS

Prevalence of ASD at age 8 was 5.4/1000. Global access to health and social services was lower both before and after age 18 (46.5% at 16; 68.0% at 18; 54.1% at 20). The percentage of patients receiving a neuropsychiatric consultation decreased after age 18 (30.8% at 18; 5.4% at 20). Community mental health services (CMHS) utilisation rate increased above 18 years of age. Regarding psychiatric visits, for both outpatient and CMHS, an increase was observed from 17.8% at age 18 to 25.4% at age 20. The utilisation of rehabilitation services decreased with age, dropping from 17.8% at age 16 to 1.8% at age 20. Psychiatric outpatient services remained stable across ages at about 14%.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that ASD patients changed clinical reference services with age from neuropsychiatric and rehabilitative services towards psychiatric and community-based services as they transitioned from paediatric to adult healthcare services.

Effects of pollution, low temperature and influenza syndrome on the excess mortality risk in winter 2016-2017

BACKGROUND

In the winter of 2016-2017, the number of deaths recorded in the north-west Europe was significantly higher than that in previous years. This spike in mortality was attributed principally to an influenza epidemic, but the contribution of air pollution and cold temperature has not been investigated. Information on the combined effect of low temperatures, influenza epidemic, and air pollution on mortality is inadequate. The objective of this study was to estimate the excess mortality in the winter of 2016-2017 in the metropolitan area of Milan, and to evaluate the independent short-term effect of 3 risk factors: low temperatures, the influenza epidemic, and air pollution.

METHODS

We used a case-crossover, time-stratified study design. Mortality data were collected on all people aged > 65 years who died of natural causes, due to respiratory diseases or cardiovascular diseases, between December 1, 2016 and February 15, 2017. Environmental data were extracted from the Regional Environmental Protection Agency. The National Surveillance Network provided data on influenza epidemic.

RESULTS

Among the 7590 natural deaths in people aged > 65 years, 965 (13%) were caused by respiratory conditions, and 2688 (35%) were caused by cardiovascular conditions. There were statistically significant associations between the minimum recorded temperature and deaths due to natural causes (OR = 0.966, 95% CI: 0.944-0.989), and cardiovascular conditions (OR = 0.961, 95% CI: 0.925-0.999). There were also statistically significant association between the influenza epidemic and deaths due to natural causes (OR = 1.198, 95% CI: 1.156-1.241), cardiovascular conditions (OR = 1.153, 95% CI: 1.088-1.223), and respiratory conditions (OR = 1.303, 95% CI: 1.166-1.456). High levels of PM10 (60 and 70 μg/m³) were associated with a statistically significant increase in natural and cause-specific mortality. There were statistically significant interactions between PM10 and influenza for cardiovascular-related mortality, and between influenza and temperature for deaths due to natural causes.

CONCLUSIONS

Excess of mortality in Milan during winter 2016-2017 was associated with influenza epidemic and concomitant environmental exposures, specifically, the combined effect of air pollution and low temperatures. Policies mitigating the effects of environmental risk factors should be implemented to prevent future excess mortality.