Rising minimum temperatures contribute to 50 years of occupancy decline among cold-adapted Arctic and boreal butterflies in North America

Global climate change has been identified as a potential driver of observed insect declines, yet in many regions, there are critical data gaps that make it difficult to assess how communities are responding to climate change. Poleward regions are of particular interest because warming is most rapid while biodiversity data are most sparse. Building on recent advances in occupancy modeling of presence-only data, we reconstructed 50 years (1970-2019) of butterfly occupancy trends in response to rising minimum temperatures in one of the most under-sampled regions of North America. Among 90 modeled species, we found that cold-adapted species are far more often in decline compared with their warm-adapted, more southernly distributed counterparts. Furthermore, in a post hoc analysis using species' traits, we find that species' range-wide average annual temperature is the only consistent predictor of occupancy changes. Species with warmer ranges were most likely to be increasing in occupancy. This trend results in the majority of butterflies increasing in occupancy probability over the last 50 years. Our results provide the first look at macroscale butterfly biodiversity shifts in high-latitude North America. These results highlight the potential of leveraging the wealth of presence-only data, the most abundant source of biodiversity data, for inferring changes in species distributions.

Modeling and prediction of phase shifts in noisy two-cycle oscillations

Understanding and predicting ecological dynamics in the presence of noise remains a substantial and important challenge. This is particularly true in light of the poor quality of much ecological data and the imprecision of many ecological models. As a first approach to this problem, we focus here on a simple system expressed as a discrete time model with 2-cycle behavior, reflecting alternating high and low population sizes. Such dynamics naturally arise in ecological systems with overcompensatory density dependence. We ask how the amount of detail included in the population estimates affects the ability to forecast the likelihood of changes in the phase of oscillation, meaning whether high populations occur in odd or in even years. We adjust the level of detail by converting continuous population levels to simple, coarse-grained descriptions using two-state and four-state models. We also consider a cubic noisy over-compensatory model with three parameters. The focus on phase changes is what distinguishes the question we are asking and the methods we use from more standard time series approaches. Obviously, adding observation states improves the ability to forecast phase shifts. In particular, the four-state model and cubic model outperform the two-state model because they include a transition state, through which the dynamics typically pass during a phase change. Nonetheless, at high noise levels the improvement in forecast skill is relatively modest. Additionally, the frequency of phase changes depends strongly on the noise level, and is much less affected by the parameter determining amplitude in the population model, so phase shift frequencies could possibly be used to infer noise levels.

Contributions of mean temperature and temperature variation to population stability and community diversity

Future climate changes are predicted to not only increase global temperatures but also alter temporal variation in temperature. As thermal tolerances form an important component of a species' niche, changes to the temperature regime have the capacity to negatively impact species, and therefore, the diversity of the communities they inhabit. In this study, we used protist microcosms to assess how mean temperature, as well as temporal variation in temperature, affected diversity. Communities consisted of seven species in a multitrophic food web. Each ecosystem was inoculated with the same abundances of each species at the start of the experiment, and species densities, Hill's numbers (based on Shannon diversity), the number of extinctions, and the probability the microcosm contained predators were all calculated at the end of the experiment. To assess how mean temperature and temperature fluctuations affect stability, we also measured population densities through time. We found that increased temporal variation in temperature increased final densities, increased Hill's numbers (at low mean temperatures), decreased rates of extinctions, and increased the probability that predators survived till the end of the experiment. Mean temperatures did not significantly affect either the number of extinctions or the probability of predators, but did reduce the positive effect of increased temporal variation in temperature on overall diversity. Our results indicate that climatic changes have the potential to impact the composition of ecological communities by altering multiple components of temperature regimes. However, given that some climate forecasts are predicting increased mean temperatures and reduced variability, our finding that increased mean temperature and reduced temporal variation are both generally associated with negative consequences is somewhat concerning.

Forest management affects seasonal source-sink dynamics in a territorial, group-living bird

The persistence of wildlife populations is under threat as a consequence of human activities, which are degrading natural ecosystems. Commercial forestry is the greatest threat to biodiversity in boreal forests. Forestry practices have degraded most available habitat, threatening the persistence of natural populations. Understanding population responses is, therefore, critical for their conservation. Population viability analyses are effective tools to predict population persistence under forestry management. However, quantifying the mechanisms driving population responses is complex as population dynamics vary temporally and spatially. Metapopulation dynamics are governed by local dynamics and spatial factors, potentially mediating the impacts of forestry e.g., through dispersal. Here, we performed a seasonal, spatially explicit population viability analysis, using long-term data from a group-living territorial bird (Siberian jay, Perisoreus infaustus). We quantified the effects of forest management on metapopulation dynamics, via forest type-specific demography and spatially explicit dispersal, and how forestry impacted the stability of metapopulation dynamics. Forestry reduced metapopulation growth and stability, through negative effects on reproduction and survival. Territories in higher quality natural forest contributed more to metapopulation dynamics than managed forests, largely through demographic processes rather than dispersal. Metapopulation dynamics in managed forest were also less resilient to disturbances and consequently, may be more vulnerable to environmental change. Seasonal differences in source-sink dynamics observed in managed forest, but not natural forests, were caused by associated seasonal differences in dispersal. As shown here, capturing seasonal source-sink dynamics allows us to predict population persistence under human disturbance and to provide targeted conservation recommendations.

Age at first reproduction in wolves: different patterns of density dependence for females and males

Age at first reproduction constitutes a key life-history trait in animals and is evolutionarily shaped by fitness benefits and costs of delayed versus early reproduction. The understanding of how intrinsic and extrinsic changes affects age at first reproduction is crucial for conservation and management of threatened species because of its demographic effects on population growth and generation time. For a period of 40 years in the Scandinavian wolf (Canis lupus) population, including the recolonization phase, we estimated age at first successful reproduction (pup survival to at least three weeks of age) and examined how the variation among individuals was explained by sex, population size (from 1 to 74 packs), primiparous or multiparous origin, reproductive experience of the partner and inbreeding. Median age at first reproduction was 3 years for females (n = 60) and 2 years for males (n = 74), and ranged between 1 and 8-10 years of age (n = 297). Female age at first reproduction decreased with increasing population size, and increased with higher levels of inbreeding. The probability for males to reproduce later first decreased, reaching its minimum when the number of territories approached 40-60, and then increased with increasing population size. Inbreeding for males and reproductive experience of parents and partners for both sexes had overall weak effects on age at first reproduction. These results allow for more accurate parameter estimates when modelling population dynamics for management and conservation of small and vulnerable wolf populations, and show how humans through legal harvest and illegal hunting influence an important life-history trait like age at first reproduction.

Dynamical Ising model of spatially coupled ecological oscillators

Long-range synchrony from short-range interactions is a familiar pattern in biological and physical systems, many of which share a common set of 'universal' properties at the point of synchronization. Common biological systems of coupled oscillators have been shown to be members of the Ising universality class, meaning that the very simple Ising model replicates certain spatial statistics of these systems at stationarity. This observation is useful because it reveals which aspects of spatial pattern arise independently of the details governing local dynamics, resulting in both deeper understanding of and a simpler baseline model for biological synchrony. However, in many situations a system's dynamics are of greater interest than their static spatial properties. Here, we ask whether a dynamical Ising model can replicate universal and non-universal features of ecological systems, using noisy coupled metapopulation models with two-cycle dynamics as a case study. The standard Ising model makes unrealistic dynamical predictions, but the Ising model with memory corrects this by using an additional parameter to reflect the tendency for local dynamics to maintain their phase of oscillation. By fitting the two parameters of the Ising model with memory to simulated ecological dynamics, we assess the correspondence between the Ising and ecological models in several of their features (location of the critical boundary in parameter space between synchronous and asynchronous dynamics, probability of local phase changes and ability to predict future dynamics). We find that the Ising model with memory is reasonably good at representing these properties of ecological metapopulations. The correspondence between these models creates the potential for the simple and well-known Ising class of models to become a valuable tool for understanding complex biological systems.

Integrating the underlying structure of stochasticity into community ecology

Stochasticity is a core component of ecology, as it underlies key processes that structure and create variability in nature. Despite its fundamental importance in ecological systems, the concept is often treated as synonymous with unpredictability in community ecology, and studies tend to focus on single forms of stochasticity rather than taking a more holistic view. This has led to multiple narratives for how stochasticity mediates community dynamics. Here, we present a framework that describes how different forms of stochasticity (notably demographic and environmental stochasticity) combine to provide underlying and predictable structure in diverse communities. This framework builds on the deep ecological understanding of stochastic processes acting at individual and population levels and in modules of a few interacting species. We support our framework with a mathematical model that we use to synthesize key literature, demonstrating that stochasticity is more than simple uncertainty. Rather, stochasticity has profound and predictable effects on community dynamics that are critical for understanding how diversity is maintained. We propose next steps that ecologists might use to explore the role of stochasticity for structuring communities in theoretical and empirical systems, and thereby enhance our understanding of community dynamics.

Larger brains spur species diversification in birds

Evidence is accumulating that species traits can spur their evolutionary diversification by influencing niche shifts, range expansions, and extinction risk. Previous work has shown that larger brains (relative to body size) facilitate niche shifts and range expansions by enhancing behavioral plasticity but whether larger brains also promote evolutionary diversification is currently backed by insufficient evidence. We addressed this gap by combining a brain size dataset for >1900 avian species worldwide with estimates of diversification rates based on two conceptually different phylogenetic-based approaches. We found consistent evidence that lineages with larger brains (relative to body size) have diversified faster than lineages with relatively smaller brains. The best supported trait-dependent model suggests that brain size primarily affects diversification rates by increasing speciation rather than decreasing extinction rates. In addition, we found that the effect of relatively brain size on species-level diversification rate is additive to the effect of other intrinsic and extrinsic factors. Altogether, our results highlight the importance of brain size as an important factor in evolution and reinforce the view that intrinsic features of species have the potential to influence the pace of evolution.

Mechanism matters: the cause of fluctuations in boom-bust populations governs optimal habitat restoration strategy

Many populations exhibit boom-bust dynamics in which abundance fluctuates dramatically over time. Past research has focused on identifying whether the cause of fluctuations is primarily exogenous, e.g., environmental stochasticity coupled with weak density dependence, or endogenous, e.g., over-compensatory density dependence. Far fewer studies have addressed whether the mechanism responsible for boom-bust dynamics matters with respect to at-risk species management. Here, we ask whether the best strategy for restoring habitat across a landscape differs under exogenously vs. endogenously driven boom-bust dynamics. We used spatially explicit individual-based models to assess how butterfly populations governed by the two mechanisms would respond to habitat restoration strategies that varied in the level of resource patchiness, from a single large patch to multiple patches spaced at different distances. Our models showed that the restoration strategy that minimized extinction risk and boom-bust dynamics would be markedly different depending on the governing mechanism. Exogenously governed populations fared best in a single large habitat patch, whereas for endogenously driven populations, boom-bust dynamics were dampened and extinction risk declined when the total restored area was split into multiple patches with low to moderate inter-patch spacing. Adding environmental stochasticity to the endogenous model did not alter this result. Habitat fragmentation lowered extinction risk in the endogenously driven populations by reducing their growth rate, precluding both "boom" phases and, more importantly, "bust" phases. Our findings suggest that (1) successful restoration will depend on understanding the causes of fluctuations in at-risk populations, (2) the level and pattern of spatiotemporal environmental heterogeneity will also affect the ideal management approach, and (3) counterintuitively, for at-risk species with endogenously governed boom-bust dynamics, lowering the intrinsic population growth rate may decrease extinction risk.

An allometric approach to quantify the extinction vulnerability of birds and mammals

Methods to quantify the vulnerability of species to extinction are typically limited by the availability of species-specific input data pertaining to life-history characteristics and population dynamics. This lack of data hampers global biodiversity assessments and conservation planning. Here, we developed a new framework that systematically quantifies extinction risk based on allometric relationships between various wildlife demographic parameters and body size. These allometric relationships have a solid theoretical and ecological foundation. Extinction risk indicators included are (1) the probability of extinction, (2) the mean time to extinction, and (3) the critical patch size. We applied our framework to assess the global extinction vulnerability of terrestrial carnivorous and non-carnivorous birds and mammals. Irrespective of the indicator used, large-bodied species were found to be more vulnerable to extinction than their smaller counterparts. The patterns with body size were confirmed for all species groups by a comparison with IUCN data on the proportion of extant threatened species: the models correctly predicted a multimodal distribution with body size for carnivorous birds and a monotonic distribution for mammals and non-carnivorous birds. Carnivorous mammals were found to have higher extinction risks than non-carnivores, while birds were more prone to extinction than mammals. These results are explained by the allometric relationships, predicting the vulnerable species groups to have lower intrinsic population growth rates, smaller population sizes, lower carrying capacities, or larger dispersal distances, which, in turn, increase the importance of losses due to environmental stochastic effects and dispersal activities. Our study is the first to integrate population viability analysis and allometry into a novel, process-based framework that is able to quantify extinction risk of a large number of species without requiring data-intensive, species-specific information. The framework facilitates the estimation of extinction vulnerabilities of data-deficient species. It may be applied to forecast extinction vulnerability in response to a changing environment, by incorporating quantitative relationships between wildlife demographic parameters and environmental drivers like habitat alteration, climate change, or hunting.

Entropy Based Modelling for Estimating Demographic Trends

In this paper, an entropy-based method is proposed to forecast the demographical changes of countries. We formulate the estimation of future demographical profiles as a constrained optimization problem, anchored on the empirically validated assumption that the entropy of age distribution is increasing in time. The procedure of the proposed method involves three stages, namely: 1) Prediction of the age distribution of a country's population based on an "age-structured population model"; 2) Estimation the age distribution of each individual household size with an entropy-based formulation based on an "individual household size model"; and 3) Estimation the number of each household size based on a "total household size model". The last stage is achieved by projecting the age distribution of the country's population (obtained in stage 1) onto the age distributions of individual household sizes (obtained in stage 2). The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by feeding real world data, and it is general and versatile enough to be extended to other time dependent demographic variables.

Trophic disruption: a meta-analysis of how habitat fragmentation affects resource consumption in terrestrial arthropod systems

Habitat fragmentation is a complex process that affects ecological systems in diverse ways, altering everything from population persistence to ecosystem function. Despite widespread recognition that habitat fragmentation can influence food web interactions, consensus on the factors underlying variation in the impacts of fragmentation across systems remains elusive. In this study, we conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to quantify the effects of habitat fragmentation and spatial habitat structure on resource consumption in terrestrial arthropod food webs. Across 419 studies, we found a negative overall effect of fragmentation on resource consumption. Variation in effect size was extensive but predictable. Specifically, resource consumption was reduced on small, isolated habitat fragments, higher at patch edges, and neutral with respect to landscape-scale spatial variables. In general, resource consumption increased in fragmented settings for habitat generalist consumers but decreased for specialist consumers. Our study demonstrates widespread disruption of trophic interactions in fragmented habitats and describes variation among studies that is largely predictable based on the ecological traits of the interacting species. We highlight future prospects for understanding how changes in spatial habitat structure may influence trophic modules and food webs.

Spatial climate patterns explain negligible variation in strength of compensatory density feedbacks in birds and mammals

The use of long-term population data to separate the demographic role of climate from density-modified demographic processes has become a major topic of ecological investigation over the last two decades. Although the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms that determine the strength of density feedbacks are now well understood, the degree to which climate gradients shape those processes across taxa and broad spatial scales remains unclear. Intuitively, harsh or highly variable environmental conditions should weaken compensatory density feedbacks because populations are hypothetically unable to achieve or maintain densities at which social and trophic interactions (e.g., competition, parasitism, predation, disease) might systematically reduce population growth. Here we investigate variation in the strength of compensatory density feedback, from long-term time series of abundance over 146 species of birds and mammals, in response to spatial gradients of broad-scale temperature precipitation variables covering 97 localities in 28 countries. We use information-theoretic metrics to rank phylogenetic generalized least-squares regression models that control for sample size (time-series length) and phylogenetic non-independence. Climatic factors explained < 1% of the remaining variation in density-feedback strength across species, with the highest non-control, model-averaged effect sizes related to extreme precipitation variables. We could not link our results directly to other published studies, because ecologists use contrasting responses, predictors and statistical approaches to correlate density feedback and climate--at the expense of comparability in a macroecological context. Censuses of multiple populations within a given species, and a priori knowledge of the spatial scales at which density feedbacks interact with climate, seem to be necessary to determine cross-taxa variation in this phenomenon. Despite the availability of robust modelling tools, the appropriate data have not yet been gathered for most species, meaning that we cannot yet make any robust generalisations about how demographic feedbacks interact with climate.

Creating larger and better connected protected areas enhances the persistence of big game species in the maputaland-pondoland-albany biodiversity hotspot

The ideal conservation planning approach would enable decision-makers to use population viability analysis to assess the effects of management strategies and threats on all species at the landscape level. However, the lack of high-quality data derived from long-term studies, and uncertainty in model parameters and/or structure, often limit the use of population models to only a few species of conservation concern. We used spatially explicit metapopulation models in conjunction with multi-criteria decision analysis to assess how species-specific threats and management interventions would affect the persistence of African wild dog, black rhino, cheetah, elephant, leopard and lion, under six reserve scenarios, thereby providing the basis for deciding on a best course of conservation action in the South African province of KwaZulu-Natal, which forms the central component of the Maputaland-Pondoland-Albany biodiversity hotspot. Overall, the results suggest that current strategies of managing populations within individual, small, fenced reserves are unlikely to enhance metapopulation persistence should catastrophic events affect populations in the future. Creating larger and better-connected protected areas would ensure that threats can be better mitigated in the future for both African wild dog and leopard, which can disperse naturally, and black rhino, cheetah, elephant, and lion, which are constrained by electric fences but can be managed using translocation. The importance of both size and connectivity should inform endangered megafauna conservation and management, especially in the context of restoration efforts in increasingly human-dominated landscapes.

Phylogenetic prediction of the maximum per capita rate of population growth

The maximum per capita rate of population growth, r, is a central measure of population biology. However, researchers can only directly calculate r when adequate time series, life tables and similar datasets are available. We instead view r as an evolvable, synthetic life-history trait and use comparative phylogenetic approaches to predict r for poorly known species. Combining molecular phylogenies, life-history trait data and stochastic macroevolutionary models, we predicted r for mammals of the Caniformia and Cervidae. Cross-validation analyses demonstrated that, even with sparse life-history data, comparative methods estimated r well and outperformed models based on body mass. Values of r predicted via comparative methods were in strong rank agreement with observed values and reduced mean prediction errors by approximately 68 per cent compared with two null models. We demonstrate the utility of our method by estimating r for 102 extant species in these mammal groups with unknown life-history traits.

Strength of density feedback in census data increases from slow to fast life histories

Life-history theory predicts an increasing rate of population growth among species arranged along a continuum from slow to fast life histories. We examine the effects of this continuum on density-feedback strength estimated using long-term census data from >700 vertebrates, invertebrates, and plants. Four life-history traits (Age at first reproduction, Body size, Fertility, Longevity) were related statistically to Gompertz strength of density feedback using generalized linear mixed-effects models and multi-model inference. Life-history traits alone explained 10 to 30% of the variation in strength across species (after controlling for time-series length and phylogenetic nonindependence). Effect sizes were largest for body size in mammals and longevity in birds, and density feedback was consistently stronger for smaller-bodied and shorter-lived species. Overcompensatory density feedback (strength <-1) occurred in 20% of species, predominantly at the fast end of the life-history continuum, implying relatively high population variability. These results support the idea that life history leaves an evolutionary signal in long-term population trends as inferred from census data. Where there is a lack of detailed demographic data, broad life-history information can inform management and conservation decisions about rebound capacity from low numbers, and propensity to fluctuate, of arrays of species in areas planned for development, harvesting, protection, and population recovery.

Inter- and intra-specific patterns of density dependence and population size variability in Salmoniformes

Population dynamics are typically affected by a combination of density-independent and density-dependent factors, the latter of which have been conceptually and theoretically linked with how variable population sizes are over time-which in turn has been tied to how prone populations are to extinction. To address evidence for the occurrence of density dependence and its relationship with population size variability (pv), we quantified each of these for 126 populations of 8 species of Salmoniformes. Using random-effects models, we partitioned variation in the strength of density dependence and the magnitude of pv between and within species and estimated the correlation of density dependence and population size variability at both the between- and within-species levels. We found that variation in the strength of density dependence was predominately within species (I(2) = 0.12 [corrected] variation in population size variability was distributed both between and within species (I(2) = 0.40). Contrary to theoretical and conceptual expectations, the strength of density dependence and the magnitude of population size variability were positively correlated at the between species level (r = 0.90), although this estimate had 95 % credibility intervals (Bayesian analogues to confidence intervals) that overlapped zero. The within-species correlation between density dependence and population size variability was not distinguishable from zero. Given that density dependence for Salmoniformes was highly variable within species, we next determined the joint effects of intrinsic (density-dependent) and extrinsic (density-independent) factors on the population dynamics of a threatened salmonid, the Lahontan cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii henshawi). We found that density-dependent and -independent factors additively contributed to population dynamics. This finding suggests that the observed within-species variability in density dependence might be attributable to local differences in the strength of density-independent factors.

Are patterns of density dependence in the Global Population Dynamics Database driven by uncertainty about population abundance?

Density dependence in population growth rates is of immense importance to ecological theory and application, but is difficult to estimate. The Global Population Dynamics Database (GPDD), one of the largest collections of population time series available, has been extensively used to study cross-taxa patterns in density dependence. A major difficulty with assessing density dependence from time series is that uncertainty in population abundance estimates can cause strong bias in both tests and estimates of strength. We analyse 627 data sets in the GPDD using Gompertz population models and account for uncertainty via the Kalman filter. Results suggest that at least 45% of the time series display density dependence, but that it is weak and difficult to detect for a large fraction. When uncertainty is ignored, magnitude of and evidence for density dependence is strong, illustrating that uncertainty in abundance estimates qualitatively changes conclusions about density dependence drawn from the GPDD.

Avifauna da Reserva Biológica Municipal Poço D'Anta, Juiz de Fora, MG

A Zona da Mata Mineira está localizada no sudeste do estado de Minas Gerais, nos domínios da Mata Atlântica, e é uma região altamente fragmentada, com muitas manchas pequenas e isoladas, cuja avifauna é pouco estudada. O objetivo deste trabalho foi inventariar a avifauna da Reserva Biológica Municipal Poço D'Anta (277 ha), uma área de floresta do município de Juiz de Fora, sudeste de Minas Gerais, através da caracterização de alguns aspectos ecológicos e o status de conservação. O levantamento foi realizado entre os períodos de março a setembro de 2007, e março de 2008 a maio de 2009, utilizando a lista de Mackinnon, capturas com redes-de-neblina e observações ocasionais. Foram identificadas 156 espécies, das quais 44 (28%) são endêmicas da Mata Atlântica e seis (3,8%) estão sob algum grau de ameaça. Dentre as espécies ameaçadas, cinco são dependentes de floresta (Dysithamnus stictothorax, Drymophila ochropyga, Sporophila frontalis, Sporophila falcirostris, Cyanoloxia moesta). Em geral a comunidade é caracterizada por aves com sensibilidade média ou baixa a perturbações ambientais. Contudo foram identificadas oito (5,1%) espécies com elevada sensibilidade (Pulsatrix koeniswaldiana, Conopophaga melanops, Sclerurus scansor, Xiphorhynchus fuscus, Lepidocolaptes squamatus, Campylorhamphus falcularius, Anabazenops fuscus e Habia rubica). Além disso, algumas espécies já consideradas extintas em vários outros fragmentos do sudeste do estado estiveram presentes na área. Houve predomínio de espécies insetívoras (39,4%; n = 61) e onívoras (31,6%; n = 49). Como área legalmente protegida e pela sua extensão, considerando as características regionais, a Reserva Biológica Municipal Poço D'Anta tem um papel importante em abrigar populações de aves que vem enfrentando persistentes efeitos antropogênicos na região. A avifauna local está sujeita a impactos tais como atropelamentos, invasões de espécies exóticas e a caça, embora já existam propostas de medidas mitigadoras no plano de manejo da área. Ressalta-se o caráter de urgência em relação à implantação destas medidas a fim de minimizar os impactos sofridos pela avifauna.

Minimum viable populations: is there a 'magic number' for conservation practitioners?

Establishing species conservation priorities and recovery goals is often enhanced by extinction risk estimates. The need to set goals, even in data-deficient situations, has prompted researchers to ask whether general guidelines could replace individual estimates of extinction risk. To inform conservation policy, recent studies have revived the concept of the minimum viable population (MVP), the population size required to provide some specified probability of persistence for a given period of time. These studies conclude that long-term persistence requires ≥5000 adult individuals, an MVP threshold that is unaffected by taxonomy, life history or environmental conditions. Here, we re-evaluate this suggestion. We find that neither data nor theory supports its general applicability, raising questions about the utility of MVPs for conservation planning.

Differences in population size variability among populations and species of the family Salmonidae

1. How population sizes vary with time is an important ecological question with both practical and theoretical implications. Because population size variability corresponds to the operation of density-dependent mechanisms and the presence of stable states, numerous researchers have attempted to conduct broad taxonomic comparisons of population size variability. 2. Most comparisons of population size variability suggest a general lack of taxonomic differences. However, these comparisons may conflate differences within taxonomic levels with differences among taxonomic levels. Further, the degree to which intraspecific differences may affect broader inferences has generally not been estimated and has largely been ignored. 3. To address this uncertainty, we examined intraspecific differences in population size variability for a total of 131 populations distributed among nine species of the Salmonidae. We extended this comparison to the interspecific level by developing species level estimates of population size variability. 4. We used a jackknife (re-sampling) approach to estimate intra- and interspecific variation in population size variability. We found significant intraspecific differences in how population sizes vary with time in all six species of salmonids where it could be tested as well as clear interspecific differences. Further, despite significant interspecific variation, the majority of variation present was at the intraspecific level. Finally, we found that classic and recently developed measures of population variability lead to concordant inferences. 5. The presence of significant intraspecific differences in all species examined suggests that the ability to detect broad taxonomic patterns in how population sizes change over time may be limited if variance is not properly partitioned among and within taxonomic levels.

Restricted dispersal reduces the strength of spatial density dependence in a tropical bird population

Spatial processes could play an important role in density-dependent population regulation because the disproportionate use of poor quality habitats as population size increases is widespread in animal populations-the so-called buffer effect. While the buffer effect patterns and their demographic consequences have been described in a number of wild populations, much less is known about how dispersal affects distribution patterns and ultimately density dependence. Here, we investigated the role of dispersal in spatial density dependence using an extraordinarily detailed dataset from a reintroduced Mauritius kestrel (Falco punctatus) population with a territorial (despotic) breeding system. We show that recruitment rates varied significantly between territories, and that territory occupancy was related to its recruitment rate, both of which are consistent with the buffer effect theory. However, we also show that restricted dispersal affects the patterns of territory occupancy with the territories close to release sites being occupied sooner and for longer as the population has grown than the territories further away. As a result of these dispersal patterns, the strength of spatial density dependence is significantly reduced. We conclude that restricted dispersal can modify spatial density dependence in the wild, which has implications for the way population dynamics are likely to be impacted by environmental change.

Thermal limits of burrowing capacity are linked to oxygen availability and size in the Antarctic clam Laternula elliptica

Animal responses to changing environments are most commonly studied in relation to temperature change. The current paradigm for marine ectotherms is that temperature limits are set through oxygen limitation. Oxygen limitation leads to progressive reductions in capacity to perform work or activity, and these are more important and proximate measures of a population's ability to survive. Here we measured the ability of a large Antarctic clam to rebury when removed from sediment at temperatures between -1.5 and 7.5 degrees C and at three oxygen concentrations, 10.2, 20.5 and 27.7%. The proportion of the population capable of reburying declined rapidly and linearly with temperature from around 65% at 0 degrees C to 0% at 6 degrees C in normoxia (20.5% O2). Decreasing oxygen to 10.2% reduced temperature limits for successful burial by around 2 degrees C, and increasing oxygen to 27.7% raised the limits by 1-1.5 degrees C. There was an interactive effect of body size and temperature on burying: the temperature limits of larger individuals were lower than smaller animals. Similarly, these size limits were increased by increasing oxygen availability. Considering data for all temperatures and oxygen levels, the fastest burying rates occurred at 3 degrees C, which is 2 degrees C above the maximum summer temperature at this site.

Interaction diversity within quantified insect food webs in restored and adjacent intensively managed meadows

1. We studied the community and food-web structure of trap-nesting insects in restored meadows and at increasing distances within intensively managed grassland at 13 sites in Switzerland to test if declining species diversity correlates with declining interaction diversity and changes in food-web structure. 2. We analysed 49 quantitative food webs consisting of a total of 1382 trophic interactions involving 39 host/prey insect species and 14 parasitoid/predator insect species. Species richness and abundance of three functional groups, bees and wasps as the lower trophic level and natural enemies as the higher trophic level, were significantly higher in restored than in adjacent intensively managed meadows. Diversity and abundance of specific trophic interactions also declined from restored to intensively managed meadows. 3. The proportion of attacked brood cells and the mortality of bees and wasps due to natural enemies were significantly higher in restored than in intensively managed meadows. Bee abundance and the rate of attacked brood cells of bees declined with increasing distance from restored meadows. These findings indicate that interaction diversity declines more rapidly than species diversity in our study system. 4. Quantitative measures of food-web structure (linkage density, interaction diversity, interaction evenness and compartment diversity) were higher in restored than in intensively managed meadows. This was reflected in a higher mean number of host/prey species per consumer species (degree of generalism) in restored than in intensively managed meadows. 5. The higher insect species and interaction diversity was related to higher plant species richness in restored than in intensively managed meadows. In particular, bees and natural enemies reacted positively to increased plant diversity. 6. Our findings provide empirical evidence for the theoretical prediction that decreasing species richness at lower trophic levels should reduce species richness at higher trophic levels, and in addition lead to even stronger reductions in interaction diversity at these higher levels. Species at higher trophic levels may thus benefit relatively more than species at lower trophic levels from habitat restoration in the grassland ecosystems studied. We also demonstrate enhanced compartment diversity and lower interaction evenness in restored than in intensively managed meadows, both of which are theoretically positively associated with increased ecosystem stability in restored meadows.

Why are there so many insect species? Perspectives from fossils and phylogenies

Over half of all described species are insects, but until recently our understanding of the reasons for this diversity was based on very little macroevolutionary evidence. Here I summarize the hypotheses that have been posed, tests of these hypotheses and their results, and hence identify gaps in knowledge for future researchers to pursue. I focus on inferences from the following sources: (i) the fossil record, normally at family level, and (ii) insect phylogenies, sometimes combined with: (iii) the species richness of insect higher taxa, and (iv) current extinction risks. There is evidence that the species richness of insects has been enhanced by: (i) their relative age, giving time for diversification to take place; (ii) low extinction rates. There is little evidence that rates of origination have generally been high or that there are limits on numbers of species. However, the evidence on macroevolutionary rates is not yet so extensive or coherent as to present unequivocal messages. As regards morphological, ecological, or behavioural hypotheses, there is evidence that diversity has been enhanced by (iii) flight or properties resulting from it like enhanced dispersal, (iv) wing folding, and (v) complete metamorphosis. However, in all these cases the evidence is somewhat equivocal, either because of statistical issues or because evidence from different sources is conflicting. There is extensive evidence that diversity is affected by (vi) the ecological niche. Comparative studies indicate that phytophagy generally increases net diversification rates, and reduces extinction risk. However, niche specialization is also associated with an increase in extinction risk. Small body size (vii) is often associated with low extinction risk in comparative studies, but as yet there is no solid evidence that it consistently enhances net rates of diversification. Mouthpart diversity (viii) has generally increased over time in the insects, but cannot explain the apparent great increase in diversity seen in the Cretaceous and Tertiary. Sexual selection and sexual conflict (ix) are two processes that are widespread in insects, and there is comparative evidence linking both to increased diversification. Although some comparative evidence links tropical distributions (x) to increased rates of diversification, the extent to which latitudinal richness gradients are unusual in insects is equivocal. There is little to no direct evidence from fossils and phylogenies that insect diversity has generally been affected by (i) sensory- or neuro-sophistication, (ii) population size or density, (iii) generation time or fecundity, (iv) the presence of an exoskeleton or cuticle, (v) segmentation or appendage diversity, (vi) adaptability or genetic versatility, though all of these remain plausible hypotheses awaiting further tests. The data suggest that the insect body ground plan itself had no direct effect on insect diversity. Thus, whilst studies to date have given substantial understanding, substantial gaps still remain. Future challenges include: (i) interpreting conflicting messages from different sources of data; (ii) rating the importance of different hypotheses that are statistically supported; (iii) linking specific proximate to specific ultimate explanations and vice versa; and (iv) understanding how different ultimate hypotheses might be dependent on each other.