Asymptomatic pancreatic cystic neoplasms: maximizing survival and quality of life using Markov-based clinical nomograms

Percentage of Pancreatic Cysts on MRI With a Pancreatic Carcinoma: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic cystic lesions (PCLs) are frequent on MRI and are thought to be associated with pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PDAC) necessitating long-term surveillance based on older studies suffering from selection bias.

PURPOSE

To establish the percentage of patients with PCLs on MRI with a present or future PDAC.

STUDY TYPE

Systematic review, meta-analysis.

POPULATION

Adults with PCLs on MRI and a present or future diagnosis of PDAC were eligible. MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Scopus were searched to April 2022 (PROSPERO:CRD42022320502). Studies limited to PCLs not requiring surveillance, <100 patients, or those with a history/genetic risk of PDAC were excluded.

FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCE

≥1.5 T with ≥1 T2-weighted sequence.

ASSESSMENT

Two investigators extracted data, with discrepancies resolved by a third. QUADAS-2 assessed bias. PDAC was diagnosed using a composite reference standard.

STATISTICAL TESTS

A meta-analysis of proportions was performed at the patient-level with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI).

RESULTS

Eight studies with 1289 patients contributed to the percentage of patients with a present diagnosis of PDAC, and 10 studies with 3422 patients to the percentage with a future diagnosis. Of patients with PCLs on MRI, 14.8% (95% CI 2.4-34.9) had a PDAC at initial MRI, which decreased to 6.0% (2.2-11.3) for studies at low risk of bias. For patients without PDAC on initial MRI, 2.0% (1.1-3.2) developed PDAC during surveillance, similar for low risk of bias studies at 1.9% (0.7-3.6), with no clear trend of increased PDAC for longer surveillance durations. For patients without worrisome features or high-risk stigmata, 0.9% (0.1-2.2) developed PDAC during surveillance. Of 10, eight studies had a median surveillance ≥3 years (range 3-157 months). Sources of bias included retrospectively limiting PCLs to those with histopathology and inconsistent surveillance protocols.

DATA CONCLUSION

A low percentage of patients with PCLs on MRI develop PDAC while on surveillance. The first MRI revealing a PCL should be scrutinized for PDAC.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

3 TECHNICAL EFFICACY: Stage 2.

Optimal age to discontinue long-term surveillance of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms: comparative cost-effectiveness of surveillance by age

OBJECTIVE

Current guidelines recommend long-term image-based surveillance for patients with low-risk intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs). This simulation study aimed to examine the comparative cost-effectiveness of continued versus discontinued surveillance at different ages and define the optimal age to stop surveillance.

DESIGN

We constructed a Markov model with a lifetime horizon to simulate the clinical course of patients with IPMNs receiving imaging-based surveillance. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for continued versus discontinued surveillance at different ages to stop surveillance, stratified by sex and IPMN types (branch-duct vs mixed-type). We determined the optimal age to stop surveillance as the lowest age at which the ICER exceeded the willingness-to-pay threshold of US$100 000 per quality-adjusted life year. To estimate model parameters, we used a clinical cohort of 3000 patients with IPMNs and a national database including 40 166 patients with pancreatic cancer receiving pancreatectomy as well as published data.

RESULTS

In male patients, the optimal age to stop surveillance was 76-78 years irrespective of the IPMN types, compared with 70, 73, 81, and 84 years for female patients with branch-duct IPMNs <20 mm, =20-29 mm, ≥30 mm and mixed-type IPMNs, respectively. The suggested ages became younger according to an increasing level of comorbidities. In cases with high comorbidity burden, the ICERs were above the willingness-to-pay threshold irrespective of sex and the size of branch-duct IPMNs.

CONCLUSIONS

The cost-effectiveness of long-term IPMN surveillance depended on sex, IPMN types, and comorbidity levels, suggesting the potential to personalise patient management from the health economic perspective.

Systematic review on surveillance for non-resected branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas

BACKGROUND

The management of branch-duct type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMN) varies in existing guidelines. This study investigated the optimal surveillance protocol and safe discontinuation of surveillance considering natural history in non-resected IPMN, by systematically reviewing the published literature.

METHODS

This review was guided by PRISMA. Research questions were framed in PICO format "CQ1-1: Is size criteria helpful to determine surveillance period? CQ1-2: How often should surveillance be carried out? CQ1-3: When should surveillance be discontinued? CQ1-4: Is nomogram predicting malignancy useful during surveillance?". PubMed was searched from January-April 2022.

RESULTS

The search generated 2373 citations. After screening, 83 articles were included. Among them, 33 studies were identified for CQ1-1, 19 for CQ1-2, 26 for CQ1-3 and 12 for CQ1-4. Cysts <1.5 or 2 cm without worrisome features (WF) were described as more indolent, and most studies advised an initial period of surveillance. The median growth rate of cysts <2 cm ranged from 0.23 to 0.6 mm/year. Patients with cysts <2 cm showing no morphological changes and no WF after 5-years of surveillance have minimal malignancy risk of 0-2%. Two nomograms created with over 1000 patients had AUCs of around 0.8 and appear to be feasible in a real-world practice.

CONCLUSIONS

For patients with suspected BD-IPMN <2 cm and no other WF, less frequent surveillance is recommended. Surveillance may be discontinued for cysts that remain stable during 5-year surveillance, with consideration of patient condition and life expectancy. With this updated surveillance strategy, patients with non-worrisome BD-IPMN should expect more streamlined management and decreased healthcare utilization.

Surveillance of Pancreatic Cystic Neoplasms

Pancreatic cystic neoplasms (PCNs) are increasingly detected because of the widespread use of cross-sectional imaging and overall aging population. While the majority of these cysts are benign, some can progress to advanced neoplasia (defined as high-grade dysplasia and invasive cancer). As the only widely accepted treatment for PCNs with advanced neoplasia is surgical resection, accurate preoperative diagnosis, and stratification of malignant potential for deciding about surgery, surveillance or doing nothing remains a clinical challenge. Surveillance strategies for pancreatic cysts (PCNs) combine clinical evaluation and imaging to assess changes in cyst morphology and symptoms that may indicate advanced neoplasia. PCN surveillance heavily relies on various consensus clinical guidelines that focus on high-risk morphology, surgical indications, and surveillance intervals and modalities. This review will focus on current concepts in the surveillance of newly diagnosed PCNs, especially on low-risk presumed intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (those without worrisome features and high-risk stigmata), and appraise current clinical surveillance guidelines.

The impact of pancreatic cancer screening on life expectancy: A systematic review of modeling studies

Evidence supporting the effectiveness of pancreatic cancer (PC) screening is scant. Most clinical studies concern small populations with short follow-up durations. Mathematical models are useful to estimate long-term effects of PC screening using short-term indicators. This systematic review aims to evaluate the impact of PC screening on life expectancy (LE) in model-based studies. Therefore, we searched four databases (Embase, Medline, Web-of-science, Cochrane) until 30 May 2022 to identify model-based studies evaluating the impact of PC screening on LE in different risk populations. Two authors independently screened identified papers, extracted data and assessed the methodological quality of studies. A descriptive analysis was performed and the impact of screening strategies on LE of different risk groups was reported. Our search resulted in 419 studies, of which eight met the eligibility criteria (mathematical model, PC screening, LE). Reported relative risks (RR) for PC varied from 1 to 70. In higher risk individuals (RR > 5), annual screening (by imaging with 56% sensitivity for HGD/early stage PC) predicted to increase LE of screened individuals by 20 to 260 days. In the general population, one-time PC screening was estimated to decrease LE (2-110 days), depending on the test characteristics and treatment mortality risk. In conclusion, although the models use different and sometimes outdated or unrealistic assumptions, it seems that PC screening in high-risk populations improves LE, and that this gain increases with a higher PC risk. Updated model studies, with data from large clinical trials are necessary to predict the long-term effect of PC screening more accurately.

Diabetes mellitus and the risk of progression or malignancy of pancreatic cystic neoplasms in patients undergoing surveillance: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Patients with pancreatic cystic neoplasms (PCN) generally undergo surveillance by cross-sectional imaging or endoscopic-ultrasound due to their pre-malignant potential. Appearance of certain cyst characteristics during surveillance is associated with aggressive behavior or presence of malignancy. Patient characteristics associated with progression or induction of malignancy in PCN is unclear from current studies. We performed this meta-analysis to determine the patient characteristics associated with progression or malignancy in patients with PCN who undergo surveillance.

METHODS

We performed a systematic research of several electronic databases for all the studies on surveillance of PCN which reported demographic data of patients who had progression or malignancy and controls. We calculated Risk ratio (RR) or Hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) for each variable. Mantel- Haenszel method or Inverse-variance model was used to pool data of progression or malignant transformation into fixed or random effect model meta-analysis.

RESULTS

11observational studies, 4 assessing risk factors for malignancy (3955 patients) and 7 evaluating risk factors for progression of PCN (3144 patients) were included in the meta-analysis. Diabetes mellitus was associated with higher risk for malignant transformation as well as progression of PCN (RR = 1.54, CI 1.23, 1.92). Advanced age was associated with higher risk of progression. Male gender had higher risk for malignant transformation but not progression of PCN.

CONCLUSION

Diabetes is associated with an increased risk of both malignancy and progression of PCN in patients who undergo surveillance. Advanced age is also associated with higher risk of progression of PCN.

Perioperative risk of pancreatic head resection-nomogram-based prediction of severe postoperative complications as a decisional aid for clinical practice

PURPOSE

To develop nomograms for pre- and early-postoperative risk assessment of patients undergoing pancreatic head resection.

METHODS

Clinical data from 956 patients were collected in a prospectively maintained database. A test (n = 772) and a validation cohort (n = 184) were randomly generated. Uni- and multi-variate analysis and nomogram construction were performed to predict severe postoperative complications (Clavien-Dindo Grades III-V) in the test cohort. External validation was performed with the validation cohort.

RESULTS

We identified ASA score, indication for surgery, body mass index (BMI), preoperative white blood cell (WBC) count, and preoperative alkaline phosphatase as preoperative factors associated with an increased perioperative risk for complications. Additionally to ASA score, BMI, indication for surgery, and the preoperative alkaline phosphatase, the following postoperative parameters were identified as risk factors in the early postoperative setting: the need for intraoperative blood transfusion, operation time, maximum WBC on postoperative day (POD) 1-3, and maximum serum amylase on POD 1-3. Two nomograms were developed on the basis of these risk factors and showed accurate risk estimation for severe postoperative complications (ROC-AUC-values for Grades III-V-preoperative nomogram: 0.673 (95%, CI: 0.626-0.721); postoperative nomogram: 0.734 (95%, CI: 0.691-0.778); each p ≤ 0.001). Validation yielded ROC-AUC-values for Grades III-V-preoperative nomogram of 0.676 (95%, CI: 0.586-0.766) and postoperative nomogram of 0.677 (95%, CI: 0.591-0.762); each p = 0.001.

CONCLUSION

Easy-to-use nomograms for risk estimation in the pre- and early-postoperative setting were developed. Accurate risk estimation can support the decisional process, especially for IPMN-patients with an increased perioperative risk.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of including contrast-enhanced ultrasound in management of pancreatic cystic neoplasms

PURPOSE

Pancreatic cystic neoplasms (PCN) management consists of non-invasive imaging studies (CT, MRI), with a high resource burden. We aimed to determine the cost-effectiveness of including contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) in the management of PCN without risk features.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

By using a decision-tree model in a hypothetical cohort of patients, we compared management strategy including CEUS with the latest Fukuoka consensus, European and Italian guidelines. Our strategy for BD-IPMN/MCN < 1 cm includes 1 CEUS annually. For those between 1 and 2 cm, it includes CEUS 4 times/year during the first year, then 3 times/year for 4 years and then annually. For those between 2 and 3 cm, it comprises MRI twice/year during the first one, then alternating 2 CEUS and 1 MRI yearly.

RESULTS

CEUS surveillance is the dominant strategy in all scenarios. CEUS surveillance average cost is 1,984.72 €, mean QALY 11.79 and mean ICER 181.99 €. If willingness to pay is 30,000 €, 45% of patients undergone CEUS surveillance of BDIPMN/MCN < 1 cm would be within budget.

CONCLUSION

Guidelines strategies are very effective, but costs are relatively high from a policy perspective. CEUS surveillance may be a cost-effective strategy yielding a nearly high QALYs, an acceptable ICER, and a lower cost.

Supplemental 18F-FDG-PET/CT for Detection of Malignant Transformation of IPMN-A Model-Based Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Accurate detection of malignant transformation and risk-stratification of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) has remained a diagnostic challenge. Preliminary findings have indicated a promising role of positron emission tomography combined with computed tomography and 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG-PET/CT) in detecting malignant IPMN. Therefore, the aim of this model-based economic evaluation was to analyze whether supplemental FDG-PET/CT could be cost-effective in patients with IPMN. Decision analysis and Markov modeling were applied to simulate patients' health states across a time frame of 15 years. CT/MRI based imaging was compared to a strategy with supplemental 18F-FDG-PET/CT. Cumulative costs in US-$ and outcomes in quality-adjusted life years (QALY) were computed based on input parameters extracted from recent literature. The stability of the model was evaluated by deterministic sensitivity analyses. In the base-case scenario, the CT/MRI-strategy resulted in cumulative discounted costs of USD $106,424 and 8.37 QALYs, while the strategy with supplemental FDG-PET/CT resulted in costs of USD $104,842 and a cumulative effectiveness of 8.48 QALYs and hence was cost-saving. A minimum specificity of FDG-PET/CT of 71.5% was required for the model to yield superior net monetary benefits compared to CT/MRI. This model-based economic evaluation indicates that supplemental 18F-FDG-PET/CT could have a favorable economic value in the management of IPMN and could be cost-saving in the chosen setting. Prospective studies with standardized protocols for FDG-PET/CT could help to better determine the value of FDG-PET/CT.

Nomogram for the Prediction of High-Grade Dysplasia and Invasive Carcinoma in Patients With Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms of the Pancreas Based on Variables of Noninvasive Examination

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) are a heterogeneous group of neoplasms and represent the most common identifiable precursor lesions of pancreatic cancer. Clinical decision-making of the risk for malignant disease, including high-grade dysplasia and invasive carcinoma, is challenging. Moreover, discordance on the indication for resection exists between the contemporary guidelines. Furthermore, most of the current nomogram models for predicting malignant disease depend on endoscopic ultrasonography to evaluate the precise size of mural nodules. Thus, this study aimed to propose a model to predict malignant disease using variables from a noninvasive examination. We evaluated patients who underwent resection of pathologically confirmed IPMNs between November 2010 and December 2018 and had preoperative clinical data available for review. Based on binary multivariable logistic regression analysis, we devised a nomogram model to predict malignant IPMNs. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the discrimination power of the model. Of the 333 patients who underwent resection of IPMNs, 198 (59.5%) had benign and 135 (40.5%) had malignant IPMNs. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that cyst size, cyst location, cyst wall enhancement, multicystic lesion, diameter of main pancreatic duct, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9, and carcinoembryonic antigen were significantly associated with malignancy. The nomogram, constructed based on these variables, showed excellent discrimination power with an AUC of 0.859 (95% CI: 0.818–0.900, P < 0.001). In conclusion, we have developed a nomogram consisting of a combination of cross-sectional imaging features and blood markers, variables that can readily be obtained by noninvasive examinations during the surveillance period, which can distinguish benign from malignant IPMNs. Nevertheless, external validation is warranted.

Natural history and optimal treatment strategy of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm of the pancreas: Analysis using a nomogram and Markov decision model

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

With the increase in detection of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN), a tailored approach is needed. This study was aimed at exploring the natural history of IPMN and suggest optimal treatment based on malignancy risk using a nomogram and Markov decision model.

METHODS

Patients with IPMN who underwent surveillance or surgery were included. Changes in worrisome features/high-risk stigmata and malignancy conversion rate were assessed. Life expectancy and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) were compared using a nomogram predicting malignancy.

RESULTS

Overall, 2006 patients with histologically confirmed or radiologically typical IPMN were enrolled. Of these, 1773 (88.4%), 81 (4.0%), and 152 (7.6%), respectively, had branch duct (BD)-, main duct-, and mixed-type IPMN at initial diagnosis. The cumulative risk of developing worrisome feature or high-risk stigmata was 19.0% and 35.0% at 5- and 10-year follow-up, respectively. The progression of malignancy rate at 10-year follow-up was 79.9% for main and mixed IPMNs and 5.9% for BD-IPMN. Nomogram-based malignancy risk prediction is well correlated with natural history based on pathologic biopsy and shows good stratification of survival. The decision model recommends surgery to maximize survival and QALY especially in those with >35% malignancy risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with main duct- and mixed-type IPMN, which have a high risk of malignancy (79.9%), BD-IPMN is very indolent (5.9%). The nomogram-based decision model suggests surgery rather than surveillance for patients with a high malignancy risk. The optimal treatment strategy between surgery and surveillance should consider patients' health status, malignancy risk, and centers' experience.

Clinical and Economic Outcomes of Patients Undergoing Guideline-Directed Management of Pancreatic Cysts

INTRODUCTION

Numerous guidelines exist for the management of pancreatic cysts. We sought to compare the guideline-directed management strategies for pancreatic cysts by comparing 2 approaches (2017 International Consensus Guidelines and 2015 American Gastroenterological Association Guidelines) that differ significantly in their thresholds for imaging, surveillance, and surgery.

METHODS

We developed a Monte Carlo model to evaluate the outcomes for a cohort of 10,000 patients managed per each guideline. The primary outcome was mortality related to pancreatic cyst management. Secondary outcomes included all-cause mortality, missed cancers, number of surgeries, number of imaging studies, cumulative cost, and quality-adjusted life years.

RESULTS

Deaths because of pancreatic cyst management and quality-adjusted life years were similar in both guidelines at a significantly higher cost of $3.6 million per additional cancer detected in the Consensus Guidelines. Deaths from "unrelated" causes (1,422) vastly outnumbered deaths related to pancreatic cysts (125). Secondary outcomes included more missed cancers in the American Gastroenterological Association guideline (71 vs 49), more surgeries and imaging studies in the Consensus guideline (711 vs 163; 116,997 vs 68,912), and higher cost in the Consensus guideline ($168.3 million vs $89.4 million). As the rate of malignant transformation increases, a more-intensive guideline resulted in fewer deaths related to pancreatic cyst management.

DISCUSSION

Our study demonstrates trade-offs between more- and less-intensive management strategies for pancreatic cysts. Although deaths related to pancreatic cyst management were similar in each strategy, fewer missed cancers in the more-intensive surveillance strategy is offset by a greater number of surgical deaths and higher cost. In conclusion, our study identifies that if the rate malignant transformation of pancreatic cysts is low (0.12% annually), a less-intensive guideline will result in similar deaths to a more-intensive guideline at a much lower cost.

Predictive Features of Malignancy in Branch Duct Type Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm of the Pancreas: A Meta-Analysis

Simple Summary

Currently, there are several guidelines that are widely used to establish the treatment strategy for branch duct type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms. Although there are some common grounds, there are discrepancies on which features they adopt, how much each feature is weighted, and how the features are combined. Furthermore, some of the features are based on lower level evidences or expert opinions. The aim of this meta-analysis was to investigate important clinical, radiological, and biochemical risk factors for malignancy and their impact as predictors. This study found symptom, size, cyst wall thickening, presence of mural nodule, change in main pancreatic duct caliber, lymphadenopathy, CA 19-9, and CEA as risk factors. Lymphadenopathy (odd ratio [OR]: 8.55), abrupt caliber change (OR: 7.41), and mural nodule (OR: 4.10) had the highest odd ratios. We expect the higher level evidences of this study to help shape better guidelines and reduce discrepancies among future guidelines.

Abstract

The current guidelines on branch duct type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (BD-IPMN) recommend various predictive features of malignancy as well as different treatment strategies. This study aimed to identify the risk factors for malignancy with higher level of evidence. A meta-analysis was performed on 40 literatures published between 2000 and 2019. These literatures included 6301 patients with pathologically proven IPMN. Malignancy was defined as high-grade dysplasia and invasive carcinoma. It was significantly associated with symptoms (odds ratio [OR] 1.35, confidence interval [CI] 1.01–1.79), size ≥ 3 cm (OR 1.90, CI 1.51–2.40), cystic wall thickening (OR 2.53, CI 1.50–4.27), mural nodule (OR 4.10, CI 3.38–4.97), main pancreatic duct dilatation (OR 2.98, CI 2.11–4.21), abrupt caliber change of the pancreatic duct (OR 7.41, CI 2.49–22.06), lymphadenopathy (OR 8.55, CI 3.25–22.51), elevated carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (OR 4.01, CI 2.55–6.28), and elevated carcinoembryonic antigen (OR 2.04, CI 1.60–2.61). Multilocular cysts and multiple cysts did not show a significant association with malignancy. This study examined the clinical, radiological, and biochemical features of BD-IPMN, often used as malignancy predictors according to the widely used guidelines. The results confirmed that all the features currently being used are valid.

Clinical and radiological features that predict malignant transformation in cystic lesions of the pancreas: a retrospective case note review

Background: Pancreatic cystic lesions (PCL) are being detected with increasing frequency. Current methods of stratifying risk of malignant transformation are imperfect. This study aimed to determine the frequency of pancreatic malignancy in patients with PCL and define clinical and radiological features that predict malignant transformation in patients managed by surgery and/or surveillance.

Methods: A retrospective cohort of adults who were evaluated in a tertiary hepatopancreaticobiliary centre between January 2000 - December 2013 with a confirmed PCL and followed up for at least 5 years. All cystic lesions were discussed at a weekly multidisciplinary meeting.

Results: Of the 1,090 patients diagnosed with a PCL, 768 patients were included in the study: 141 patients were referred for immediate pancreatic resection, 570 entered surveillance while 57 had a malignant PCL which was unresectable at diagnosis (n=47) or were unfit for surgery (n=10). In those who were resected following presentation, malignancy was present in 38%. During follow-up 2% of those entering a surveillance programme underwent malignant transformation. Clinical and radiological features associated with a high-risk PCL included older age, symptoms, associated solid component or dilated main pancreatic duct. In intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms, larger size was not a feature of malignant transformation (benign vs. malignant 30mm vs. 23mm; P= 0.012).

Conclusion: The sensitivity of standard diagnostic tests leading to immediate surgery for high-risk PCL (malignant or mucinous) was 92% but with a specificity of just 5%. Surveillance of PCL without high-risk features within a multidisciplinary meeting was associated with a low incidence of cancer development, supporting the use of worrisome clinical and radiological features in the initial stratification of PCL.

Early Detection of Pancreatic Cancer: Opportunities and Challenges

Most patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) present with symptomatic, surgically unresectable disease. Although the goal of early detection of PDAC is laudable and likely to result in significant improvement in overall survival, the relatively low prevalence of PDAC renders general population screening infeasible. The challenges of early detection include identification of at-risk individuals in the general population who would benefit from longitudinal surveillance programs and appropriate biomarker and imaging-based modalities used for PDAC surveillance in such cohorts. In recent years, various subgroups at higher-than-average risk for PDAC have been identified, including those with familial risk due to germline mutations, a history of pancreatitis, patients with mucinous pancreatic cysts, and elderly patients with new-onset diabetes. The last 2 categories are discussed at length in terms of the opportunities and challenges they present for PDAC early detection. We also discuss current and emerging imaging modalities that are critical to identifying early, potentially curable PDAC in high-risk cohorts on surveillance.

Age and cystic size are associated with clinical impact of endoscopic ultrasonography-guided fine-needle aspiration on the management of pancreatic cystic neoplasms

Objectives: The clinical impact of endoscopic ultrasonography-guided fine-needle aspiration (EUS-FNA) in managing pancreatic cystic neoplasms (PCNs) remains controversial. The aim of this study was to identify which patients with PCNs would benefit from EUS-FNA. Methods: A retrospective study was performed on patients with PCNs who underwent EUS-FNA between January 2009 and June 2018. A discordant or a consistent diagnosis after EUS-FNA was analyzed and was correlated with the clinical demographic data and cystic features. Predictors of the change in the diagnosis after EUS-FNA were analyzed. Results: One hundred eighty-eight cases of PCNs were analyzed. EUS-FNA changed the diagnosis in 45.7% of all patients with PCNs and 54.5% patients with presumed branch ductal type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (BD-IPMN) and impacted the recommendation in 35.6% of patients with PCNs and 50.5% patients with BD-IPMN. Patients with a discordant diagnosis after EUS-FNA were younger in age (54.8 ± 12.6 vs. 61.2 ± 14.2; p=.037) and had a cyst size larger than 3 cm than patients with a consistent diagnosis after EUS-FNA. The only worrisome feature (WF) that differed between patients with a discordant and a consistent diagnosis after EUS-FNA was the main pancreatic duct (MPD) between 5 and 9 mm (p=.013). In multivariate analysis, a cyst size >3 cm and age were independent predictors of diagnostic changes after EUS-FNA (OR: 5.33, 95% CI: 1.79-15.88, p = .003; OR: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.93-0.99, p  =  .031). Conclusions: EUS-FNA made a significant change in the management of nearly half of the patients with PCNs, especially in younger patients and in patients with a cyst size larger than 3 cm.

Management and outcomes of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms

Background

This study evaluated the outcome and survival of patients with radiologically suspected intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs).

Methods

IPMN management was reviewed according to Fukuoka risk factors and IPMN localization, differentiating main‐duct (MD), mixed‐type (MT) and branch‐duct (BD) IPMNs. Perioperative results were compared with those of patients undergoing resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) over the same interval (2010–2014). Overall (OS) and disease‐specific (DSS) survival rates were calculated and subgroups compared.

Results

Of 142 patients with IPMNs, 26 had MD‐IPMN, eight had MT‐IPMN and 108 had BD‐IPMN. Some 74 per cent of patients with MD‐ and MT‐IPMN were managed by primary resection, whereas this was used in only 27·8 per cent of those with BD‐IPMN. The risk of secondary resection and malignant transformation for BD‐IPMNs smaller than 20 mm was 8 and 2 per cent respectively during follow‐up. Pancreatic head resection of IPMNs was associated with an increased risk of postoperative pancreatic fistula grade B/C compared with resection of PDAC (12 of 33 (36 per cent) versus 41 of 221 (18·6 per cent) respectively; P = 0·010), and greater morbidity and mortality (Clavien–Dindo grade III: 15 of 33 (45 per cent) versus 56 of 221 (25·3 per cent) respectively; grade IV: 1 (3 per cent) versus 7 (3·2 per cent); grade V: 2 (6 per cent) versus 2 (0·9 per cent); P = 0·008). Five‐year OS and DSS rates in patients with MD‐IPMN were worse than those for MT‐ and BD‐IPMN (OS: 44, 86 and 97·4 per cent respectively, P < 0·001; DSS: 60, 100 and 98·6 per cent; P < 0·001). Patients with invasive IPMN had worse OS and DSS rates than those with non‐invasive dysplasia (OS: IPMN‐carcinoma (10 patients) 33 per cent, high‐grade dysplasia 100 per cent, intermediate‐grade dysplasia 63 per cent, low grade‐dysplasia 100 per cent, P < 0·001; DSS: IPMN‐carcinoma 43 per cent, all grades of dysplasia 100 per cent, P < 0·001). Patients with high‐risk stigmata had poorer survival than those without risk factors (OS: high‐risk stigmata (35 patients) 55 per cent, worrisome features (31) 95 per cent, no risk factors (76) 100 per cent, P < 0·001; DSS: 71, 100 and 100 per cent respectively, P < 0·001).

Conclusion

The risk of malignant transformation was very low for BD‐IPMNs, but the development of high‐risk stigmata was associated with disease‐specific mortality. Patients with IPMN had greater morbidity after resection than those having resection of PDAC.

Clinical Management and Surgical Decision-Making of IPMN of the Pancreas

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) is the most common pancreatic cystic neoplasm (PCN). The increased attention to IPMN is due to its unique features of malignant progression, being different between main duct IPMN and branch duct IPMN, and increased de novo development of conventional pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma elsewhere in the pancreas. The increased interest in IPMN led to publication of many guidelines on its clinical management. This chapter aims to summarize and compare characteristics of nine guidelines on the clinical management of IPMN and other PCNs published in the English literature and further to show a current strategy for surgical decision making in the management of IPMN.

Diagnosis and management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas

Background and aim of the work: Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) of the pancreas are cystic lesions with malignant potential. Given their increasing incidence in the latest years, a precise characterization and management of these lesions have become more and more crucial: even though the majority of IPMN has a benign and indolent course, it is fundamental to early recognize and stratify patients in order to accurately plan a tailored follow-up and to individuate those that would benefit of surgical treatment. The aim of this paper is to highlight the most recent evidence on IPMN available in the current literature. Methods: We performed a review of the recent literature and of the recent guidelines about pancreatic cystic lesions, especially IPMN. Results: The incidence of IPMN is now on the rise: an increasing number of patients, possibly because of the increasing diagnostic yield of imaging techniques, is being diagnosed with pancreatic cystic lesions, a great part of which are IPMN. The possibility of malignant transformation requires a careful approach to these patients, in the need of tailoring the follow-up and the therapy. Conclusion: A detailed diagnosis, the determination of risk factors for malignant transformation and a multisciplinary approach are of foremost importance for an effective management of IPMN. (www.actabiomedica.it)

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas - a cost-effectiveness analysis of management strategies for the branch-duct subtype

BACKGROUND

Branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (BD-IPMN) presents a clinical conundrum. Rigorous long-term surveillance or surgical resection is recommended. The economic consequences of the management have not been fully investigated.

METHODS

A Markov decision model compared 4 strategies for low-risk BD-IPMN: I = upfront total pancreatectomy, II = upfront partial pancreatectomy, III = initial surveillance, IV = watchful waiting. Surveillance was based on the Swedish Guidelines for Pancreatic Cancer. Probabilities and costs were obtained from the participating unit and from the scientific literature. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated and sensitivity analyses were performed by varying relevant parameters. Survival was reported in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs).

RESULTS

Strategy III was the most cost-effective strategy with an ICER of €31 682 compared to strategy IV. Strategy I was the most expensive but yielded the best QALY (9.32). Total number of years, annual risk of pancreatic cancer and annual risk of a low-risk BD-IPMN turning into a high-risk lesion had the greatest impact in the model.

CONCLUSIONS

Initial surveillance seems to be the most cost-effective strategy in the management of low-risk asymptomatic BD-IPMN. However, the possibility of personalized approaches remains to be investigated.

The role of age in pancreatic intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas: Same risk of death but different implications for management

BACKGROUND

Current guidelines do not address the role of age in the management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) of the pancreas.

AIM

To evaluate whether clinical features and risk for malignancy are affected by patient's age at diagnosis.

METHODS

In total, 2189 IPMNs, both surgically resected or surveilled, were dichotomized according to a 50-year-old cutoff and compared in terms of pathological features, cumulative risk of developing high-risk stigmata (HRS), overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS).

RESULTS

Patients <50 years had more frequent abdominal pain (38.5 vs. 22.4%; p < 0.01) and acute pancreatitis (20.4 vs. 9.3%; p < 0.01) at presentation. Patients ≥50 years old had more multifocal IPMNs (50 vs. 36.9%; p < 0.01), HRS (8.5% vs. 4.3%; p = 0.04) and invasive IPMNs (26.6% vs. 17.3%; p = 0.03) when resected. Moreover, patients ≥50 years old had a significantly higher cumulative risk of developing HRS over time, and a significantly lower OS, but similar DSS when compared with those <50 years old.

CONCLUSIONS

IPMNs diagnosed in older patients are more likely to progress to HRS despite the fact that cancer-related death is not affected by age. The follow-up schedule should not be adjusted according to age, but one should take into account that IPMNs in younger individuals have more time to progress toward malignancy.

Management of Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms: Controversies in Guidelines and Future Perspectives

Purpose of review

Management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) is currently based on consensus, in the absence of evidence-based guidelines. In recent years, several consensus guidelines have been published, with distinct management strategies. In this review, we will discuss these discrepancies, in order to guide treating physicians in clinical management.

Recent findings

The detection rate of pancreatic cysts has increased substantially with the expanded use of high-quality imaging techniques to up to 45%. Of these cysts, 24–82% are IPMNs, which harbour a malignant potential. Timely detection of high-risk lesions is therefore of great importance. Surgical management is based on the presence of clinical and morphological high-risk features, yet the majority of resected specimens appear to be low risk.

Summary

International collaboration and incentive large-scale prospective registries of individuals undergoing cyst surveillance are needed to accumulate unbiased data and develop evidence-based guidelines. Additionally, development of non-invasive, accurate diagnostic tools (e.g. biomarkers) is needed to differentiate between neoplastic and non-neoplastic pancreatic cysts and detect malignant transformation at an early stage (i.e. high-grade dysplasia).

Endoscopic Ultrasound Imaging for Diagnosing and Treating Pancreatic Cysts

Cystic pancreatic lesions are increasingly diagnosed owing to the abundant use of cross-sectional imaging. Given their malignant potential, true pancreatic cysts should be considered for resection or periodic follow-up. Cystic lesions of the pancreas (CLPs) require further evaluation and management. Therefore, it is important to establish a solid diagnosis at the time of detection. Endoscopic ultrasound examination is the imaging modality of choice. Fine needle aspiration provides fluid for cytologic, biochemical, and molecular assays to classify lesions and predict biological behavior. This review provides an overview of the diagnosis and management of various types of commonly encountered true CLPs.

Surveillance and Outcomes of Nonresected Presumed Branch-Duct Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms: A Meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Guidelines regarding the surveillance of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) are controversial because of uncertain risk of malignancy, agnosticism regarding the use of endoscopic ultrasound, and their recommendation to stop surveillance after 5 years. We present a systematic review and meta-analysis of the risk of malignancy and other end points and estimate the value of endoscopic ultrasound for surveillance.

METHODS

We systematically searched MEDLINE for studies with a cohort of patients with presumed branch-duct IPMN who initially were managed nonsurgically. Data regarding study characteristics, surveillance, and outcomes were extracted. Incidence rates of morphologic progression, malignancy, surgery, and death were calculated with a random effects model.

RESULTS

Twenty-four studies with 3440 patients and 13,097 patient-years of follow-up were included. Rates of morphologic progression, surgery, malignancy, and death were 0.0379, 0.0250, 0.0098, and 0.0043 per patient-year, respectively. Endoscopic ultrasound was not associated with significantly different rates of these outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of malignancy calculated in this study was low and in line with recent systematic reviews. Endoscopic ultrasound does not have marginal use in surveillance. Given the limitations of a systematic review of nonrandomized studies, further studies are needed to determine the optimal surveillance of branch-duct IPMNs.

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm of the pancreas - epidemiology, risk factors, diagnosis, and management

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) is one of the most common cystic neoplasms of the pancreas. It is a heterogeneous disease and can be divided into ductal types and morphological subtypes. The incidence of IPMN is increasing, likely due to the widespread use of cross-sectional imaging and a growing elderly population. IPMN poses an increasing demand on the health care system. Current guidelines provide indications for surgery and recommendations for surveillance, but management of IPMN is still challenging in routine clinical practice. In this article, we review current knowledge about IPMN and provide future directions for improving diagnosis and management.

Competing Risks for Mortality in Patients With Asymptomatic Pancreatic Cystic Neoplasms: Implications for Clinical Management

OBJECTIVES

Pancreatic cystic neoplasms (PCNs) are being detected with increased frequency. Current clinical practice guidelines emphasize management based on cyst-related features. We aimed to evaluate the impact of comorbidity on mortality in PCN patients via competing risk analysis.

METHODS

We analyzed a retrospective cohort of patients diagnosed between 2005-2010, with follow-up through 2015, for overall and cause-specific mortality. Comorbidities were classified by the Charlson comorbidity index. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to evaluate the independent effect of cyst features, age, gender, and comorbidities on cause-specific mortality. Subgroup analysis was performed to determine the cause-specific mortality based on four a priori clinical profiles-healthy patients with low- or high-risk cysts, and high-comorbidity patients with low- or high-risk cysts.

RESULTS

A total of 1,800 patients with PCNs comprised the study cohort (median follow-up 5.7 years). A total of 402 deaths (22.3%) occurred during the study period: 43 pancreatic cancer and 359 non-pancreatic cancer deaths. Compared to healthy patients without any high-risk cyst features (reference group), patients with high comorbidity as well as high-risk cyst features had an increased risk of overall mortality (Cox hazard ratio 6.30, 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.71, 8.42, P<0.01), pancreatic cancer mortality (subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) 51.13, 95% CI 6.35, 411.29, P<0.01), as well as non-pancreatic cancer mortality (SHR 5.24, 95% CI 3.85, 7.12, P<0.01). Meanwhile, low-risk patients with a high-risk cyst were more likely to experience pancreatic cancer mortality (SHR 68.14, 95% CI 9.27, 501.01, P<0.01) rather than non-pancreatic cancer mortality (SHR 1.22, 95% CI 0.88, 1.71, P=0.23), compared to the reference group. Similarly, compared to the reference group, high-risk patients with a low-risk cyst were more likely to experience non-pancreatic cancer mortality (SHR 3.96, 95% CI 2.98, 5.26, P<0.01) rather than pancreatic cancer mortality (SHR 2.35, 95% CI 0.14, 38.82, P=0.55).

CONCLUSIONS

Most of the deaths in the study were unrelated to pancreatic cancer. This has implications for clinical management. By applying patient-related factors in conjunction with cyst features, we defined commonly encountered patient profiles to help guide PCN clinical management.

Revisions of international consensus Fukuoka guidelines for the management of IPMN of the pancreas

The management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) continues to evolve. In particular, the indications for resection of branch duct IPMN have changed from early resection to more deliberate observation as proposed by the international consensus guidelines of 2006 and 2012. Another guideline proposed by the American Gastroenterological Association in 2015 restricted indications for surgery more stringently and recommended physicians to stop surveillance if no significant change had occurred in a pancreatic cyst after five years of surveillance, or if a patient underwent resection and a non-malignant IPMN was found. Whether or not it is safe to do so, as well as the method and interval of surveillance, has generated substantial debate. Based on a consensus symposium held during the meeting of the International Association of Pancreatology in Sendai, Japan, in 2016, the working group has revised the guidelines regarding prediction of invasive carcinoma and high-grade dysplasia, surveillance, and postoperative follow-up of IPMN. As the working group did not recognize the need for major revisions of the guidelines, we made only minor revisions and added most recent articles where appropriate. The present guidelines include updated information and recommendations based on our current understanding, and highlight issues that remain controversial or where further research is required.

Editorial: Stopping Pancreatic Cyst Surveillance?

The management of patients with pancreatic cysts, especially presumed branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs), remains a challenge. BD-IPMNs carry a very low risk of malignancy and occur in predominantly older individuals who often die from causes not related to their pancreatic disease. The specific decision to stop surveillance of presumed low risk BD-IPMNs (those without either worrisome features (WF) or high risk stigmata (HRS)) is controversial, and needs to balance the real risk of malignancy or developing malignancy and IPMN-related mortality, with the patient's life expectancy, quality of life expectations, and mortality from non-pancreatic-related causes. With improved life expectancy, improved survival from non-pancreatic malignancies, rising health costs, and growing detection of ever smaller presumed BD-IPMNs, this issue is becoming ever more critical.

Pancreatic Cysts and Guidelines

Pancreatic cysts, especially incidental asymptomatic ones seen on noninvasive imaging such as CT or MR imaging, remain a clinical challenge. The etiology of such cysts may range from benign cysts without any malignant potential such as pancreatic pseudocysts and serous cystadenomas to premalignant or frankly malignant cysts such as mucinous cystic neoplasms, intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms, cystic degeneration associated with solid tumors such as pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma or pancreatic endocrine neoplasms, and solid pseudopapillary neoplasms. The clinical challenge in 2017 is to accurately preoperatively diagnose them and their malignant potential before deciding about surgery, surveillance or doing nothing. This review will focus on the currently available clinical guidelines for doing so.

Dynamics of Fukuoka Criteria and Patient Management in Pancreatic Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms (IPMNs) During Follow-Up

BACKGROUND Pancreatic intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) present a clinical challenge. Evidence-based guidelines are lacking. The so-called "Fukuoka criteria" were developed to assess the risk of malignancy in IPMNs upon imaging. However, little is known about their diagnostic value and the natural course of IPMNs. Thus, the aim of this study was the assessment of Fukuoka criteria and patient management in pancreatic IPMNs -during follow-up. MATERIAL AND METHODS IPMNs were identified via retrospective survey of endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) examinations. Fukuoka criteria were assessed on EUS findings and additional imaging (CT, MRI, ultrasound). Patients' symptoms and comorbidities were recorded. Dynamics of Fukuoka criteria and patient management were compared at first presentation and during follow-up. RESULTS We screened 1324 EUS examinations. Sixty-five patients (male/female, 14/37; mean age, 68.8 years; range, 48-85 years) with IPMNs were identified (57 branch duct (BD-)IPMNs, 3 main duct (MD-) IPMNs, 5 mixed-type (MT)-IPMNs). Seven patients received surgical resection (4 BD-IPMNs, 2 MD-IPMNs, 1 MT-IPMN). Nine BD-IPMNs had neither surgery nor follow-up. Fifty-one patients (44 BD-IPMNs, 2 MD-IPMNs, 5 MT-IPMNs) underwent follow-up (mean duration, 18.7 months; range, 3-139 months). There were 15/51 patients who were initially Fukuoka-positive. One MD-IPMN, 4/5 MT-IPMNs, and 13/44 BD-IPMNs showed progressive changes but were not resected due to patients' refusal or comorbidities. Four BD-IPMNs converted to Fukuoka-positive. CONCLUSIONS Evidence-based guidelines for non-invasive dignity assessment of IPMNs are lacking. In our study, MD-IPMNs displayed greater dynamics than BD-IPMNs and MT-IPMNs concerning Fukuoka criteria. Prospective long-term studies are needed to clarify prognostic significance of the single Fukuoka criteria and sensible duration of follow-up.

Patient Preferences for Management of Cystic Neoplasms of the Pancreas: A Cross-Sectional Survey Study

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to determine how patient anxiety, knowledge, and cancer worry influence preferences for management of pancreatic cysts.

METHODS

We performed a prospective, cross-sectional study using a disease-specific survey instrument. We included patients older than 18 years who were diagnosed with a pancreatic cyst. A telephone survey instrument was developed to assess baseline anxiety using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), knowledge regarding pancreatic cysts, cancer worry, and patient preferences using a standard gamble.

RESULTS

Of the 100 studied participants (median age, 65 years; 72% women), median Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale score was 4 (normal range). In terms of knowledge, 96% of the patients were not aware of their specific cyst type, and 58% were unaware of the possibility of any cyst-related malignancy. Overall, 8% of respondents had some degree of cancer worry. Respondents were more willing to undergo magnetic resonance imaging surveillance compared with endoscopic ultrasound or surgery. Knowledge of cyst type was a significant predictor of willingness to undergo invasive testing.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a significant gap in patient knowledge with respect to pancreatic cysts. Greater emphasis on patient education can help patients make informed decisions regarding cyst management.

Role of serial EUS-guided FNA on pancreatic cystic neoplasms: a retrospective analysis of repeat carcinoembryonic antigen measurements

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Pancreatic cystic neoplasms (PCNs) often need interval surveillance, including repeat EUS, but the role of repeat FNA with fluid analysis is poorly defined. The aim of this analysis is to evaluate the potential clinical significance of serial carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) measurements by EUS-guided FNA (EUS-FNA) in the surveillance for PCNs.

PATIENTS

Patients who underwent EUS-FNA for PCNs were studied retrospectively. EUS-FNA findings were compared between index and prior procedures among patients who underwent repeat EUS-FNA.

RESULTS

A total of 400 patients with PCNs underwent EUS-FNA. Eighty-seven of those patients had prior EUS-FNA with cyst fluid analysis. Patients with repeat FNA were significantly more likely to have multiple cysts (57% vs 41%; P = .008), multilocular cysts (75% vs 62%; P = .042), connection to pancreatic duct (33% vs 18%; P = .005), and higher initial CEA levels (94.8 vs 25.6 ng/mL; P = .003) compared with patients who had only a single FNA. A comparison of prior and index FNAs did not show significant differences in EUS or cyst fluid analysis findings. After log transformation, the association between CEA level at prior and index FNA was moderate (R² = 0.626; P < .001), but cystic fluid CEA classification with a cutoff value of 192 ng/mL changed in 17 patients (20%), without significant changes in EUS findings.

CONCLUSIONS

Repeat surveillance EUS-FNA resulted in stable CEA levels in the majority of patients, with spurious fluctuations of CEA in approximately 20% of patients. These data call into question any clinical significance attributed to an isolated interval rise in CEA level, especially in light of a stable EUS examination.

Prevalence, Diagnosis and Management of Pancreatic Cystic Neoplasms: Current Status and Future Directions

Cystic neoplasms of the pancreas are found with increasing prevalence, especially in elderly asymptomatic individuals. Although the overall risk of malignancy is very low, the presence of these pancreatic cysts is associated with a large degree of anxiety and further medical investigation due to concerns about malignancy. This review discusses the different cystic neoplasms of the pancreas and reports diagnostic strategies based on clinical features and imaging data. Surgical and nonsurgical management of the most common cystic neoplasms, based on the recently revised Sendai guidelines, is also discussed, with special reference to intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN; particularly the branch duct variant), which is the lesion most frequently identified incidentally. IPMN pathology, its risk for development into pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, the pros and cons of current guidelines for management, and the potential role of endoscopic ultrasound in determining cancer risk are discussed. Finally, surgical treatment, strategies for surveillance of pancreatic cysts, and possible future directions are discussed.

Estimation of the Survival Benefit Obtainable From Screening for the Early Detection of Pancreatic Cancer

OBJECTIVE

The chance to improve survival from pancreatic adenocarcinoma relies on early diagnosis through screening, but any screening program is subject to lead-time bias and no data are available in this regard. Aim of the present study was to evaluate the benefit obtainable from a screening program for early detection of pancreatic adenocarcinoma, considering screen-related biases.

METHODS

Monte Carlo simulation was performed using data from 1000 pancreatic cancer patients admitted in a tertiary referral hospital and from pertinent literature. Lead-time bias was assessed and subtracted from expected survival.

RESULTS

Mean expected life expectancy was 13.0 months. Assuming a 20%, 30%, or 50% stage III/IV reduction with screening, pancreatic resections would increase from 217 to 290 in front of a 20% stage III/IV reduction to 324 in front of a 30% reduction and to 385 in front of a 50% reduction. After lead-time adjustment, life expectancies were 14.0, 14.6, and 15.9 months, respectively. The number-needed-to-screen calculation suggests that screening can be harmful in a proportion of patients inversely dependent on the length of follow-up and a significant improvement of survival after diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Pancreatic adenocarcinoma screening program would probably be successful in the presence of a considerable improvement of postdiagnostic survival; otherwise, it only increases surgical procedure amount.

Suboptimal accuracy of carcinoembryonic antigen in differentiation of mucinous and nonmucinous pancreatic cysts: results of a large multicenter study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The exact cutoff value at which pancreatic cyst fluid carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level distinguishes pancreatic mucinous cystic neoplasms (MCNs) from pancreatic nonmucinous cystic neoplasms (NMCNs) is unclear. The aim of this multicenter retrospective study was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of cyst fluid CEA levels in differentiating between MCNs and NMCNs.

METHODS

Consecutive patients who underwent EUS with FNA at 3 tertiary care centers were identified. Patients with histologic confirmation of cyst type based on surgical specimens served as the criterion standard for this analysis. Demographic characteristics, EUS morphology, FNA fluid, and cytology results were recorded. Multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify predictors of MCNs was performed. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated for CEA levels.

RESULTS

A total of 226 patients underwent surgery (mean age, 61 years, 96% white patients, 39% female patients) of whom 88% underwent Whipple's procedure or distal pancreatectomy. Based on surgical histopathology, there were 150 MCNs and 76 NMCNs cases. The median CEA level was 165 ng/mL. The area under the ROC curve for CEA levels in differentiating between MCNs and NMCNs was 0.77 (95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.84, P < .01) with a cutoff of 105 ng/mL, demonstrating a sensitivity and specificity of 70% and 63%, respectively. The cutoff value of 192 ng/mL yielded a sensitivity of 61% and a specificity of 77% and would misdiagnose 39% of MCN cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Cyst fluid CEA levels have a clinically suboptimal accuracy level in differentiating MCNs from NMCNs. Future studies should focus on novel cyst fluid markers to improve risk stratification of pancreatic cystic neoplasms.

Natural History and Management of Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms: Current Evidence

Background

With the use of modern cross-sectional abdominal imaging modalities, an increasing number of cystic pancreatic lesions are identified incidentally. Although there is no pathological diagnosis available in most cases, it is believed that the majority of these lesions display small branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs) of the pancreas. Even though a number of large clinical series have been published, many uncertainties remain with regard to this entity of mucinous cystic neoplasms.

Methods

Systematic literature review.

Results

Main-duct (MD) and mixed-type IPMNs harbor a high risk of malignant transformation. It is conceivable that most IPMNs with involvement of the main duct tend to progress to invasive carcinoma over time. Thus, formal oncologic resection is the treatment of choice in surgically fit patients. In contrast, the data regarding BD-IPMN remain equivocal, resulting in conflicting concepts. To date, it is not clear whether and which BD-IPMNs progress to carcinoma and how long this progression takes.

Conclusion

While patients with MD-IPMNs should undergo surgical resection if comorbidities and life expectancy permit this, the management of small BD-IPMNs remains controversial. Population-based studies with long-term follow-up are needed to define which cohort of patients can be observed safely without immediate resection.

Efficacy of Neoadjuvant Versus Adjuvant Therapy for Resectable Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma: A Decision Analysis

BACKGROUND

Neoadjuvant therapy-based protocols for potentially resectable pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PAC) have not been directly compared with adjuvant protocols in large prospective randomized trials. This study aimed to compare the efficacy of neoadjuvant versus adjuvant therapy-based management by using a formal decision analytic model.

METHODS

A decision analytic model was created with a Markov process to compare neoadjuvant and adjuvant chemo- and/or chemoradiation therapy-based strategies for simulated cohorts of patients with potentially resectable PAC. Base-case probabilities were derived from the published data of 21 prospective phases 2 and 3 trials (3708 patients) between 1997 and 2014. The primary outcome measures determined in an intent-to-treat fashion were overall and quality-adjusted survival rates. One- and two-way sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the effects of model uncertainty on outcomes.

RESULTS

The median overall survival and 2-year survival rates for the patients in the standard adjuvant therapy arm of the study were 20 months and 42.2 % versus 22 months and 46.8 % for those in the neoadjuvant strategy arm. Quality-adjusted survival was 18.4 and 19.8 months, respectively. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that when recurrence-free survival after completion of neoadjuvant therapy and resection is less than 13.9 months or when the rate for progression of disease precluding resection during neoadjuvant therapy is greater than 44 %, the neoadjuvant strategy is no longer the favored option.

CONCLUSIONS

The decision analytic model suggests that neoadjuvant therapy-based management improves the outcomes for patients with potentially resectable pancreatic cancer. However, the benefits in terms of overall and quality-adjusted survival are modest.

Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm of Pancreas

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) of the pancreas are neoplasms that are characterized by ductal dilation, intraductal papillary growth, and thick mucus secretion. This relatively recently defined pathology is evolving in terms of its etiopathogenesis, clinical features, diagnosis, management, and treatment guidelines. A PubMed database search was performed. All the relevant abstracts in English language were reviewed and the articles in which cases of IPMN could be identified were further scrutinized. Information of IPMN was derived, and duplication of information in several articles and those with areas of persisting uncertainties were excluded. The recent consensus guidelines were examined. The reported incidence of malignancy varies from 57% to 92% in the main duct-IPMN (MD-IPMN) and from 6% to 46% in the branch duct-IPMN (BD-IPMN). The features of high-risk malignant lesions that raise concern include obstructive jaundice in a patient with a cystic lesion in the pancreatic head, the findings on radiological imaging of a mass lesion of >30 mm, enhanced solid component, and the main pancreatic duct (MPD) of size ≥10 mm; while duct size 5-9 mm and cyst size <3 mm are considered as “worrisome features.” Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) are primary investigations in diagnosing and following up on these patients. The role of pancreatoscopy and the analysis of aspirated cystic fluid for cytology and DNA analysis is still to be established. In general, resection is recommended for most MD-IPMN, mixed variant, and symptomatic BD-IPMN. The 5-year survival of patients after surgical resection for noninvasive IPMN is reported to be at 77-100%, while for those with invasive carcinoma, it is significantly lower at 27-60%. The follow-up of these patients could vary from 6 months to 1 year and would depend on the risk stratification for invasive malignancy and the pathology of the resected specimen. The understanding of IPMN has evolved over the years. The recent guidelines have played a role in this regard.

Overweight increases the risk of malignancy in patients with pancreatic mucinous cystic neoplasms

Distinguishing between benign and malignant pancreatic cysts remains a clinical challenge. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of body mass index (BMI) and preoperative clinical and cyst features, as described by the International Consensus Guidelines, on malignancy in patients with pancreatic mucinous cystic neoplasms (PMCNs).A retrospective cohort study was performed on patients with PMCNs who underwent surgical resection between January 1994 and June 2014. Preoperative BMI, clinical demographic data, cystic features, tumor markers, and surgical pathology results were analyzed. Predictors of malignancy were determined by univariate and multivariate analysis using logistic regression.One hundred sixty-four cases of PMCNs, including 106 intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) and 58 mucinous cystic neoplasms (MCNs), were analyzed. On univariate analysis, older age (P = 0.008), male sex (P = 0.007), high-risk stigmata (P = 0.007), diabetes mellitus (DM; P = 0.008), and BMI >25 (P < 0.001) were associated with malignancy. Multivariate analysis found that BMI >25 (odds ratio, 3.99; 95% confidence interval: 1.60-10) was an independent predictor of malignancy. In subgroup analysis, BMI >25 was an independent predictor of malignancy in IPMNs but not in MCNs.Overweight patients with IPMNs have a higher risk of malignancy and should be followed closely or undergo resection. The operative strategy for PMCNs should consider cyst-related and patient-related risk factors.

Pancreatic main-duct involvement in branch-duct IPMNs: an underestimated risk

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to analyze a large single-center population of resected intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) of the pancreas with respect to risk factors of malignant transformation.

BACKGROUND

There is international consensus that main-duct (MD) as well as mixed-type IPMNs should be treated surgically due to a high risk of malignancy. In contrast, there is an ongoing controversy about surgery of branch-duct type IPMN (BD-IPMN).

METHODS

All consecutive patients who underwent surgery for IPMN between January 2004 and December 2012 were included. Clinical characteristics and preoperative imaging were correlated with histopathological features.

RESULTS

A total of 512 patients underwent pancreatic surgery and had a histological proof of IPMN. According to preoperative imaging, 74 patients had MD-IPMN (14%), 205 mixed-type (40%), and 233 suspected BD-IPMN (46%). On histopathology, 162 of 512 patients revealed low-grade, 105 moderate, and 52 high-grade dysplasia. One hundred ninety-three IPMN patients (38%) suffered from invasive carcinoma. Among invasive IPMNs, the majority (58%) were mixed-type lesions according to preoperative imaging. Of 141 Sendai negative BD-IPMNs, a malignancy rate of 18% (high-grade dysplasia and invasive carcinoma) was found. Most interesting, 29% of suspected BD-IPMNs (67/233) revealed histological involvement of the main pancreatic duct not evident in preoperative imaging.

CONCLUSIONS

All subtypes of IPMNs display a relevant risk for malignant transformation. By abdominal imaging, many IPMNs are misclassified as BD-IPMNs but reveal mixed-type lesions in histopathology. Because currently available preoperative diagnostics are not sufficient to reliably diagnose BD-IPMNs, surgical resection for suspected small branch-duct IPMN should be considered in patients fit for surgery.

Duodenum-preserving total and partial pancreatic head resection for benign tumors--systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Potential benefits of local extirpation of benign pancreatic head tumors are tissue conservation of pancreas, stomach, duodenum and common bile duct (CBD) and maintenance of pancreatic functions.

METHODS

Medline/PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library databases were searched to identify studies applying duodenum-preserving total or partial pancreatic-head resection (DPPHRt/p) and reporting short- and long-term outcomes. Twenty-four studies, including 416 patients who underwent DPPHRt/p, were identified for systematic analysis. The meta-analysis was based on 10 prospective controlled and 4 retrospective controlled cohort studies, comparing 293 DPPHRt/p resections with 372 pancreato-duodenectomies (PD).

RESULTS, SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS

Of 416 patients, 75.7% underwent total and 24.3% partial head resection, while 47.1% included segmentectomy of duodenum and CBD. The most common pathology was cystic neoplasm (65.8%) and endocrine tumors (13.4%). The frequencies of severe postoperative complications of 8.8%, pancreatic fistula of 19.2%, re-operation of 1.7% and hospital mortality of 0.48%, indicate a low level of early post-operative complications.

META-ANALYSIS

DPPHRt/p significantly preserved the level of exocrine (IV = -0.67, 95% CI -0.98 to -0.35, p = 0.0001) and endocrine (IV = 18.20, fixed, 95% CI -0.92 to 25.48, p = 0.0001) pancreatic functions compared to PD when the pre- and postoperative functional status in both groups are analyzed. There were no significant differences between DPPHRt/p and PD in frequency of pancreatic fistula, delayed gastric emptying or hospital mortality.

CONCLUSION

DPPHRt/p for benign neoplasms and neuro-endocrine tumors of the pancreatic head is associated with a low level of early-postoperative complications and a better conservation of exocrine and endocrine functions.

Pancreatic intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm--where is the challenge?

Cystic lesions of the pancreas are increasingly recognized due to the widespread use of modern abdominal imaging technologies. The majority of these lesions display pseudocysts and mucinous cystic neoplasms. In contrast to pseudocysts, it is well established that mucinous cystic neoplasms of the pancreas exhibit a significant potential for malignant transformation over time. Among mucinous cystic tumors, the most frequently observed entity is pancreatic intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN). IPMNs are characterized by cystic dilation of pancreatic ducts and the production of mucus and by an adenoma-carcinoma sequence eventually culminating in invasive carcinoma in some patients. Due to the high risk of harboring malignancy, there is international consensus that IPMNs with involvement of the main pancreatic duct should be recommended for surgical resection. To date, the indication for surgery of branch-duct IPMNs is controversially discussed because of the overall lower risk of malignant transformation compared to main-duct IPMNs. Particularly for small and asymptomatic side-branch IPMNs, the indication for surgical resection remains challenging. In addition to the international consensus guidelines, a number of potential preoperative features predicting malignant transformation have been discussed recently. Moreover, novel surgical pancreatic parenchyma-sparing techniques such as enucleations or segmental pancreatic resections have been reported in order to treat IPMNs. The present article aims to demonstrate the current scientific knowledge in this field and to highlight the current controversy.

"High-risk stigmata" of the 2012 international consensus guidelines correlate with the malignant grade of branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas

OBJECTIVES

The 2012 international consensus guidelines for the management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) of the pancreas stratified patients into 2 clinical categories, "high-risk stigmata" and "worrisome features," and recommended different therapeutic strategies for these groups. The aim of this study was to elucidate the significance of these categories in terms of predicting malignant IPMNs.

METHODS

The medical records of 100 consecutive patients who underwent pancreatectomy for IPMNs were retrospectively reviewed. Seventy patients with branch duct IPMNs (BD-IPMNs) were stratified into 3 groups. The relationships between the number of predictive factors and histopathologic grade were investigated.

RESULTS

The prevalence rates of malignant IPMN, invasive carcinoma, and lymph node metastasis in the high-risk group were 80%, 55%, and 20%, respectively, with these percentages significantly increasing in a stepwise manner according to the number of predictive factors. In contrast, there was no significant correlation between the number of worrisome features and grade of malignancy in patients stratified as having worrisome BD-IPMNs.

CONCLUSIONS

The number of high-risk stigmata correlated significantly with the grade of malignancy of BD-IPMNs. The presence of at least 1 high-risk stigma in patients with BD-IPMNs indicates a need for pancreatectomy with lymphadenectomy.

Quality of life and functional outcome after resection of pancreatic cystic neoplasm

OBJECTIVES

The objectives of this study were to assess the long-term quality of life (QOL) after the resection of a primary pancreatic cyst and to determine predictors of outcome. Secondary outcomes were pancreatic function and survival.

METHODS

One hundred eight consecutive patients, who underwent resection between 1992 and 2007 and had nearly 60 months follow-up, were reviewed. Questionnaires and function tests were collected during scheduled outpatient clinic visits.

RESULTS

At follow-up, 20 patients had died. Five-year overall survival was 94% for benign and 62% for malignant neoplasia. Of 88 living patients, 65 (74%) returned questionnaires. Generic physical and mental QOL scores were equal or better compared with healthy references. None of the disease-specific symptom scales were above mean 50, implicating none to mild complaints. Independent predictors for good generic QOL were young age (P < 0.05) and resected malignancy (P < 0.05); predictors for good gastrointestinal QOL were male sex (P < 0.1), limited resection (P < 0.05), endocrine insufficiency (P < 0.05), and employment (P < 0.05). Endocrine insufficiency prevalence was 40%, and 59% for exocrine insufficiency.

CONCLUSIONS

After cyst resection, long-term QOL is equal to healthy references, pancreatic insufficiency is prevalent but does not impair QOL, and survival relates positive compared with solid pancreatic adenocarcinoma. The excellent long-term outcome justifies proceeding with surgery once a medical indication for resection has been established.

Endoscopic ultrasound in the diagnosis of pancreatic intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms

Pancreatic cystic lesions are increasingly recognised due to the widespread use of different imaging modalities. Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) of the pancreas represent a common, but also heterogeneous group of cystic tumors with a significant malignant potential. These neoplasms must be differentiated from other cystic tumors and properly classified into their different types, main-duct IPMNs vs branch-duct IPMNs. These types have a different malignant potential and therefore, different treatment strategies need to be implemented. Endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) offers the highest resolution of the pancreas and can aid in the differential diagnosis, classification and differentiation between benign and malignant tumors. The addition of EUS fine-needle aspiration can supply further information by obtaining fluid for cytology, measurement of tumor markers and perhaps DNA analysis. Novel techniques, such as the use of contrast and sophisticated equipment, like intraductal probes can provide information regarding malignant features and extent of these neoplasms. Thus, EUS is a valuable tool in the diagnosis and appropriate management of these tumors.

Italian consensus guidelines for the diagnostic work-up and follow-up of cystic pancreatic neoplasms

This report contains clinically oriented guidelines for the diagnostic work-up and follow-up of cystic pancreatic neoplasms in patients fit for treatment. The statements were elaborated by working groups of experts by searching and analysing the literature, and then underwent a consensus process using a modified Delphi procedure. The statements report recommendations regarding the most appropriate use and timing of various imaging techniques and of endoscopic ultrasound, the role of circulating and intracystic markers and the pathologic evaluation for the diagnosis and follow-up of cystic pancreatic neoplasms.

Benign cystic neoplasm and endocrine tumours of the pancreas--when and how to operate--an overview

BACKGROUND

The recent evolution of limited local operative procedures for benign pancreatic lesions shifted surgical treatment options to the application of local techniques, although major resections of pancreatic head and left resection are still the standard.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the level of evidence of tumour enucleation (EN), pancreatic middle segment resection (PMSR) and duodenum preserving total/subtotal pancreatic head resection (DPPHRt/s), we focus based on present knowledge on indication to surgical treatment evaluating the questions, when and how to operate.

RESULTS

Tumour enucleation is recommended for all symptomatic neuro-endocrine tumours with size up to 2-3 cm and non-adherence to pancreatic main-ducts. EN has been applied predominantly in neuro-endocrine tumours and less frequently in cystic neoplasms. 20% of enucleation are performed as minimal invasive laparascopic procedure. Surgery related severe post-operative complications with the need of re-intervention are observed in about 11%, pancreatic fistula in 33%. The major advantage of EN are low procedure related early post-operative morbidity and a very low hospital mortality. PMSR is applied in two thirds for symptomatic cystic neoplasm and in one third for neuro-endocrine tumours. The high level of 33% pancreatic fistula and severe post-operative complications of 18% is related to management of proximal pancreatic stump. DPPHRt/s is used in 70% for symptomatic cystic neoplasms, for lesions with risk for malignancy and in less than 10% for neuro-endocrine tumours. DPPHRt with segment resection of peripapillary duodenum and intra-pancreatic common bile duct has been applied in one third of patients and in two thirds by complete preservation of duodenum and common bile duct. The level of evidence for EN and PMSR is low because of retrospective data evaluation and absence of RCT results. For DPPHR, 7 prospective, controlled studies underline the advantages compared to partial pancreaticoduodenectomy.

CONCLUSION

The application of tumour enucleation, pancreatic middle segment resection and duodenum preserving subtotal or total pancreatic head resection are associated with low level surgery related early post-operative complications and a very low hospital mortality. The major advantage of the limited procedures is preservation of exo- and endocrine pancreatic functions.

Prediction of malignancy in cystic neoplasms of the pancreas: a population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Pancreatic cystic neoplasms (PCNs) are being detected with increased frequency. The aims of this study were to determine the incidence of malignancy and develop an imaging-based system for prediction of malignancy in PCN.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients ≥18 years of age with confirmed PCN from January 2005 to December 2010 in a community-based integrated care setting in Southern California. Patients with history of acute or chronic pancreatitis were excluded. Malignancy diagnosed within 3 months of cyst diagnosis was considered as pre-existing. Subsequent incidence of malignancy during surveillance was calculated based on person-time at risk. Age- and gender-adjusted standardized incidence ratio (SIR) was calculated with the non-cyst reference population. Recursive partitioning was used to develop a risk prediction model based on cyst imaging features.

RESULTS

We identified 1,815 patients with confirmed PCN. A total of 53 (2.9%) of patients were diagnosed with cyst-related malignancy during the study period. The surveillance cohort consisted of 1,735 patients with median follow-up of 23.4 months. Incidence of malignancy was 0.4% per year during surveillance. The overall age- and gender-adjusted SIR for pancreatic malignancy was 35.0 (95% confidence level 26.6, 46.0). Using recursive partitioning, we stratified patients into low (<1%), intermediate (1-5%), and high (9-14%) risk of harboring malignant PCN based on four cross-sectional imaging features: size, pancreatic duct dilatation, septations with calcification as well as growth. Area under the receiver operator characteristic curve for the prediction model was 0.822 (training) and 0.808 (testing).

CONCLUSIONS

Risk of pancreatic malignancy was lower than previous reports from surgical series but was still significantly higher than the reference population. A risk stratification system based on established imaging criteria may help guide future management decisions for patients with PCN.

Pancreatic cyst prevalence and the risk of mucin-producing adenocarcinoma in US adults

OBJECTIVES

The presence of a pancreatic cyst often prompts concern, although the rate of malignant transformation to mucin-producing adenocarcinoma is not known. We aimed to determine the prevalence rate of mucin-producing adenocarcinoma in US adults with pancreatic cysts.

METHODS

This retrospective, population-based cross-sectional study calculated the annual number of mucin-producing adenocarcinomas using the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER 18) database and the 2010 US census. The overall prevalence rate of cysts in the population was found using data from large cross-sectional imaging studies of incidental cyst prevalence. Prevalence rates were then calculated by dividing the annual number of mucin-producing adenocarcinomas by the cyst prevalence rate.

RESULTS

Between 2005 and 2009, 1,137 mucin-producing adenocarcinomas were estimated to be found annually in a US adult population of 137,154,960. The total number of pancreas cysts, given a cyst prevalence rate of 2.5%, was 3,428,874. Therefore, the prevalence rate of mucin-producing adenocarcinoma arising in patients with pancreatic cysts was 33.2 per 100,000 (95% confidence interval (CI): 21.9-44.5). The prevalence rate was 32.8 per 100,000 (95% CI: 21.6-44.0) in women and 33.5 per 100,000 (95% CI: 22.2-44.8) in men. As expected, the rate of malignant transformation increased linearly with advancing age (highest 38.6 per 100,000 in 80- to 84-year-old men).

CONCLUSIONS

Malignant transformation of pancreatic cysts into mucin-producing adenocarcinoma in US adults is a very rare event. Current clinical guidelines and resource allocation for pancreatic cyst disease should be reconsidered given these findings.

IPMN: surgical treatment

PURPOSE

Cystic pancreatic tumors are being detected more frequently, and particularly, intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasia (IPMN) has recently attracted increased attention. The detection rate of IPMN has increased over the last decade; however, management of this neoplasm remains controversial.

METHODS

Based on a review of the relevant literature and the international guidelines, we discuss the diagnostic evaluation of IPMN, its treatment, and prognosis.

RESULTS

While IPMN represents only a distinct minority of all pancreatic cancers, they appear to be a relatively frequent neoplastic form of pancreatic cystic neoplasm. It may not be possible to differentiate main duct disease from branch duct disease (MD-IPMN vs. BD-IPMN) prior to surgery. This distinction has not only an impact on treatment but also on prognosis, as MD-IPMN is more often malignant. IPMN has updated consensus guideline indications for conservative and surgical resection.

CONCLUSIONS

Since patients with IPMN of the pancreas are at risk of developing recurrent IPMN and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma in the remnant pancreas and extrapancreatic malignancies, early recognition, treatment, and systemic surveillance are of great importance. No conclusions can be drawn from the available evidence with respect to the efficacy of surveillance and follow-up treatment programs. A better understanding of the natural course of IPMN and the biology of pancreatic cancer is mandatory to enable further diagnostic and treatment improvements.