Equatorial decline of reef corals during the last Pleistocene interglacial

Distribution patterns of reef-building corals in the Northwest Pacific and their environmental drivers

Understanding species distribution and the related driving processes is a fundamental issue in ecology. However, incomplete data on reef-building corals in the ecoregions of the South China Sea have hindered a comprehensive understanding of coral distribution patterns and their ecological drivers in the Northwest Pacific (NWP). This study investigated the coral species diversity and distribution patterns in the NWP by collecting species presence/absence data from the South China Sea and compiling an extensive species distribution database for the region, and explored their major environmental drivers. Our NWP coral database included 612 recorded coral species across 15 ecoregions. Of these, 536 coral species were recorded in the South China Sea Oceanic Islands after compilation, confirming the extraordinary coral species diversity in this ecoregion. Coral alpha diversity was found to decrease with increasing latitude in the whole NWP, while the influence of the Kuroshio Current on environmental conditions in its path results in a slower decline in species richness with latitude compared to regions within the South China Sea. Beta-diversity decomposition revealed that nestedness patterns mainly occurred between low and high latitude ecoregions, while communities within similar latitudes exhibited a turnover component, particularly pronounced at high latitudes. The impact of environmental factors on coral assemblage structure outweighed the effects of spatial distance. Temperature, especially winter temperature, and light intensity strongly influenced alpha diversity and beta diversity's nestedness component. Additionally, turbidity and winter temperature variations at high latitudes contributed to the turnover pattern observed among communities in the NWP. These findings elucidate the assembly processes and major environmental drivers shaping different coral communities in the NWP, highlighting the significant role of specific environmental filtering in coral distribution patterns and providing valuable insights for coral species conservation efforts.

Cenozoic history of the tropical marine biodiversity hotspot

The region with the highest marine biodiversity on our planet is known as the Coral Triangle or Indo-Australian Archipelago (IAA)1,2. Its enormous biodiversity has long attracted the interest of biologists; however, the detailed evolutionary history of the IAA biodiversity hotspot remains poorly understood3. Here we present a high-resolution reconstruction of the Cenozoic diversity history of the IAA by inferring speciation-extinction dynamics using a comprehensive fossil dataset. We found that the IAA has exhibited a unidirectional diversification trend since about 25 million years ago, following a roughly logistic increase until a diversity plateau beginning about 2.6 million years ago. The growth of diversity was primarily controlled by diversity dependency and habitat size, and also facilitated by the alleviation of thermal stress after 13.9 million years ago. Distinct net diversification peaks were recorded at about 25, 20, 16, 12 and 5 million years ago, which were probably related to major tectonic events in addition to climate transitions. Key biogeographic processes had far-reaching effects on the IAA diversity as shown by the long-term waning of the Tethyan descendants versus the waxing of cosmopolitan and IAA taxa. Finally, it seems that the absence of major extinctions and the Cenozoic cooling have been essential in making the IAA the richest marine biodiversity hotspot on Earth.

Poleward migration of tropical corals inhibited by future trends of seawater temperature and calcium carbonate (CaCO3) saturation

Poleward range expansion of marine organisms is commonly attributed to anthropogenic ocean warming. However, the extent to which a single species can migrate poleward remains unclear. In this study, we used molecular data to examine the current distribution of the Pocillopora damicornis species complex in Taiwan waters and applied niche modeling to predict its potential range through the end of the 21st Century. The P. damicornis species complex is widespread across shallow, tropical and subtropical waters of the Indo-Pacific regions. Our results revealed that populations from subtropical nonreefal coral communities are P. damicornis, whose native geographical ranges are approximately between 23°N and 35°N. In contrast, those from tropical reefs are P. acuta. Our analysis of 50 environmental data layers demonstrated that the concentrations of CaCO3 polymorphs had the greatest contributions to the distributions of the two species. Future projections under intermediate shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 2-4.5 and very high (SSP5-8.5) scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions showed that while sea surface temperature (SST) isotherms would shift northwards, saturation isolines of two CaCO3 polymorphs, calcite (Ωcal) and aragonite (Ωarag), would shift southwards by 2100. Subsequent predictions of future suitable habitats under those conditions indicated that distinct delimitation of geographical ranges for the two species would persist, and neither would extend beyond its native geographical zones, indicating that tropical Taiwan waters are the northern limit for P. acuta. In contrast, subtropical waters are the southern limit for P. damicornis. We concluded that the decline in CaCO3 saturation would make high latitudes less inhabitable, which could be one of the boundary elements that limit poleward range expansion driven by rising SSTs and preserve the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) on Earth. Consequently, poleward migration of tropical reef corals to cope with warming oceans should be reevaluated.

A Late Pleistocene coastal ecosystem in French Guiana was hyperdiverse relative to today

Warmer temperatures and higher sea level than today characterized the Last Interglacial interval [Pleistocene, 128 to 116 thousand years ago (ka)]. This period is a remarkable deep-time analog for temperature and sea-level conditions as projected for 2100 AD, yet there has been no evidence of fossil assemblages in the equatorial Atlantic. Here, we report foraminifer, metazoan (mollusks, bony fish, bryozoans, decapods, and sharks among others), and plant communities of coastal tropical marine and mangrove affinities, dating precisely from a ca. 130 to 115 ka time interval near the Equator, at Kourou, in French Guiana. These communities include ca. 230 recent species, some being endangered today and/or first recorded as fossils. The hyperdiverse Kourou mollusk assemblage suggests stronger affinities between Guianese and Caribbean coastal waters by the Last Interglacial than today, questioning the structuring role of the Amazon Plume on tropical Western Atlantic communities at the time. Grassland-dominated pollen, phytoliths, and charcoals from younger deposits in the same sections attest to a marine retreat and dryer conditions during the onset of the last glacial (ca. 110 to 50 ka), with a savanna-dominated landscape and episodes of fire. Charcoals from the last millennia suggest human presence in a mosaic of modern-like continental habitats. Our results provide key information about the ecology and biogeography of pristine Pleistocene tropical coastal ecosystems, especially relevant regarding the-widely anthropogenic-ongoing global warming.

Three common sampling techniques in Pleistocene coral reefs of the Red Sea: a comparison

Line Intercept Transects (LIT), Point Intercept Transects (PIT), and Photoquadrats (PQ) are the most common quantitative sampling techniques in modern and fossil coral reefs. Data from coral reefs obtained by the different methods are generally compared between various reef ages and localities. Quaternary reefs from warmer interglacial periods, which represent climate scenarios projected for the future, are particularly interesting for comparisons with modern reefs. Importantly, fossil reefs differ from modern reefs because they are diagenetically altered and time averaged. While several studies have compared different quantitative methods in modern reefs, very few have dealt with the comparability among fossil and between fossil and modern reefs. Here, we compare LIT, PIT at 10, 20 and 50 cm intervals, and PQ in two Pleistocene reef localities in Egypt. We find that alpha diversity, reef cover and community composition are dependent on the method. Results gained with plotless methods (LIT, PIT) differ strongly from results gained with plot methods (PQ). However, coral cover results are similar between LIT and PIT, and community composition is indistinguishable between the two, but alpha diversity depends on the interval used for PIT. We discuss the implications of our findings for comparing coral reefs of various ages and localities. We recommend surveying Pleistocene reefs with PIT at 20 cm intervals. This is because A) alpha diversity is well captured, B) the amount of time averaging recorded by PIT is reduced compared to PQ, C) the PIT results can be directly compared to reefs analyzed by LIT, and D) the method is less time consuming than LIT and PQ.

Regional and global climate risks for reef corals: Incorporating species-specific vulnerability and exposure to climate hazards

Climate change is driving rapid and widespread erosion of the environmental conditions that formerly supported species persistence. Existing projections of climate change typically focus on forecasts of acute environmental anomalies and global extinction risks. The current projections also frequently consider all species within a broad taxonomic group together without differentiating species-specific patterns. Consequently, we still know little about the explicit dimensions of climate risk (i.e., species-specific vulnerability, exposure and hazard) that are vital for predicting future biodiversity responses (e.g., adaptation, migration) and developing management and conservation strategies. Here, we use reef corals as model organisms (n = 741 species) to project the extent of regional and global climate risks of marine organisms into the future. We characterise species-specific vulnerability based on the global geographic range and historical environmental conditions (1900-1994) of each coral species within their ranges, and quantify the projected exposure to climate hazard beyond the historical conditions as climate risk. We show that many coral species will experience a complete loss of pre-modern climate analogs at the regional scale and across their entire distributional ranges, and such exposure to hazardous conditions are predicted to pose substantial regional and global climate risks to reef corals. Although high-latitude regions may provide climate refugia for some tropical corals until the mid-21st century, they will not become a universal haven for all corals. Notably, high-latitude specialists and species with small geographic ranges remain particularly vulnerable as they tend to possess limited capacities to avoid climate risks (e.g., via adaptive and migratory responses). Predicted climate risks are amplified substantially under the SSP5-8.5 compared with the SSP1-2.6 scenario, highlighting the need for stringent emission controls. Our projections of both regional and global climate risks offer unique opportunities to facilitate climate action at spatial scales relevant to conservation and management.

Improving the relevance of paleontology to climate change policy

Paleontology has provided invaluable basic knowledge on the history of life on Earth. The discipline can also provide substantial knowledge to societal challenges such as climate change. The long-term perspective of climate change impacts on natural systems is both a unique selling point and a major obstacle to becoming more pertinent for policy-relevant bodies like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Repeated experiments on the impacts of climate change without anthropogenic disturbance facilitate the extraction of climate triggers in biodiversity changes. At the same time, the long timescales over which paleontological changes are usually assessed are beyond the scope of policymakers. Based on first-hand experience with the IPCC and a quantitative analysis of its cited literature, we argue that the differences in temporal scope are less of an issue than inappropriate framing and reporting of most paleontological publications. Accepting that some obstacles will remain, paleontology can quickly improve its relevance by targeting climate change impacts more directly and focusing on effect sizes and relevance for projections, particularly on higher-end climate change scenarios.

Giant clam (Tridacna) distribution in the Gulf of Oman in relation to past and future climate

The Oman upwelling zone (OUZ) creates an unfavorable environment and a major biogeographic barrier for many coral reef species, such as giant clams, thus promoting and maintaining faunal differences among reefs on the east and west side of the Arabian Peninsula. We record the former existence of Tridacna in the Gulf of Oman and review its stratigraphic distribution in the Persian Gulf to provide new insights on the connectivity of coral reef habitats around southern Arabia under changing climate and ocean conditions. Fossil shells were carbon-14 dated and employed as sclerochronological proxy archives. This reveals that the Omani population represents a last glacial colonization event during the Marine Isotope Stage 3 interstadial under colder-than-present temperatures and variable upwelling intensity linked to Dansgaard-Oeschger climate oscillations. It was favored by temperatures just above the lower threshold for the habitat-forming reef coral communities and instability of the upwelling barrier. We conclude that the distribution of Tridacna in the northern Arabian Sea is generally limited by either strong upwelling or cool sea surface temperature under gradually changing climate conditions at the interglacial-glacial scale. Opportunities for dispersal and temporary colonization existed only when there was a simultaneous attenuation of both limiting factors due to high-frequency climate variability. The OUZ will unlikely become a future climate change refuge for giant clams because they will be exposed either to thermal stress by rapid anthropogenic Indian Ocean warming or to unfavorable upwelling conditions.

Global warming generates predictable extinctions of warm- and cold-water marine benthic invertebrates via thermal habitat loss

Anthropogenic global warming is redistributing marine life and may threaten tropical benthic invertebrates with several potential extinction mechanisms. The net impact of climate change on geographical extinction risk nevertheless remains uncertain. Evidence of widespread climate-driven extinctions and of potentially unidentified mechanisms exists in the fossil record. We quantify organism extinction risk across thermal habitats, estimated by paleoclimate reconstructions, over the past 300 million years. Extinction patterns at seven known events of rapid global warming (hyperthermals) differ significantly from typical patterns, resembling those driven by global geometry under simulated global warming. As isotherms move poleward with warming, the interaction between the geometry of the globe and the temperature-latitude relationship causes an uneven loss of thermal habitat and a bimodal latitudinal distribution of extinctions. Genera with thermal optima warmer than ~21°C show raised extinction odds, while extinction odds continually increase for genera with optima below ~11°C. Genera preferring intermediate temperatures generally have no additional extinction risk during hyperthermals, except under extreme conditions as the end-Permian mass extinction. Widespread present-day climate-driven range shifts indicate that occupancy loss is already underway. Given the most-likely projections of modern warming, our model, validated by seven past hyperthermal events, indicates that sustained warming has the potential to annihilate cold-water habitat and its endemic species completely within centuries.

Unraveling Moreton Bay reef history: An urban high-latitude setting for coral development

High-latitude habitats have become increasingly recognized as a potential climate refuge for coral communities, supporting both tropical and sub-tropical corals. Despite the increasing interest in the ecology of high-latitude corals, our current knowledge of their temporal dynamics is limited, especially within urbanized settings. Here, we examined the entire history of a high-latitude coral reef ecosystem in an urbanized setting. We surveyed Holocene fossil and modern coral communities along a water quality gradient in Moreton Bay, southeast Queensland, Australia, representing near-river (Wellington Point), intermediate (Peel Island) and near-oceanic (Myora Reef) environmental conditions. Reef accretion occurred during three discrete episodes from 7,400 to 5,800, 4,900 to 3,000, and 2,100 to 300 years BP, each separated by roughly 1,000-year hiatuses, where conditions were probably not favorable enough for reef accretion to occur. Episodic reef initiation and termination suggests strong environmental controls over reef development. Eastern Australian Holocene reef growth and cessation has been linked previously to sea level fluctuations and climatic regimes (e.g., ENSO). Within each reef building episode, there were few changes in coral assemblages over time. The fast growing and branching Acropora had a relative abundance greater than 90% in ten of the 13 sediment cores and all the submerged terrace excavations. However, substantial modification of adjacent coastal catchments from European colonization in the mid 1800’s resulted in increased sediment and nutrient discharge into the bay. This perturbation coincided with a greater abundance of stress-tolerant coral species (e.g., Dipsastraea, Goniastrea, and Goniopora) and the near extirpation of Acropora in the modern coral communities of near-river and intermediate sites due to poor water quality. In contrast, the modern coral assemblage at the near-oceanic site (Myora Reef) continues to be dominated by Acropora, likely due to the consistent oceanic input, resulting in lower sediment loading and higher water quality. In order for conditions for reef growth to improve, especially within the near-river portions of the bay, further sediment and nutrient runoff from anthropogenic land-use changes need to be mitigated. Given the historical abundance of Acropora, we recommend this genus be used as an indicator of natural resource management success in the bay.

Coral-bleaching responses to climate change across biological scales

The global impacts of climate change are evident in every marine ecosystem. On coral reefs, mass coral bleaching and mortality have emerged as ubiquitous responses to ocean warming, yet one of the greatest challenges of this epiphenomenon is linking information across scientific disciplines and spatial and temporal scales. Here we review some of the seminal and recent coral-bleaching discoveries from an ecological, physiological, and molecular perspective. We also evaluate which data and processes can improve predictive models and provide a conceptual framework that integrates measurements across biological scales. Taking an integrative approach across biological and spatial scales, using for example hierarchical models to estimate major coral-reef processes, will not only rapidly advance coral-reef science but will also provide necessary information to guide decision-making and conservation efforts. To conserve reefs, we encourage implementing mesoscale sanctuaries (thousands of km² ) that transcend national boundaries. Such networks of protected reefs will provide reef connectivity, through larval dispersal that transverse thermal environments, and genotypic repositories that may become essential units of selection for environmentally diverse locations. Together, multinational networks may be the best chance corals have to persist through climate change, while humanity struggles to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to net zero.

Climatic and tectonic drivers shaped the tropical distribution of coral reefs

Today, warm-water coral reefs are limited to tropical-to-subtropical latitudes. These diverse ecosystems extended further poleward in the geological past, but the mechanisms driving these past distributions remain uncertain. Here, we test the role of climate and palaeogeography in shaping the distribution of coral reefs over geological timescales. To do so, we combine habitat suitability modelling, Earth System modelling and the ~247-million-year geological record of scleractinian coral reefs. A broader latitudinal distribution of climatically suitable habitat persisted throughout much of the Mesozoic-early Paleogene due to an expanded tropical belt and more equable distribution of shallow marine substrate. The earliest Cretaceous might be an exception, with reduced shallow marine substrate during a 'cold-snap' interval. Climatically suitable habitat area became increasingly skewed towards the tropics from the late Paleogene, likely steepening the latitudinal biodiversity gradient of reef-associated taxa. This was driven by global cooling and increases in tropical shallow marine substrate resulting from the tectonic evolution of the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Although our results suggest global warming might permit long-term poleward range expansions, coral reef ecosystems are unlikely to keep pace with the rapid rate of anthropogenic climate change.

Genetic divergence and range expansion in a western North Pacific coral

Coral poleward range expansions have recently been observed in response to warming oceans. Range expansion can lead to reduced genetic diversity and increased frequency of deleterious mutations that were rare in core populations, potentially limiting the ability for adaptation and persistence in novel environments. Successful expansions that overcome these founder effects and colonize new habitat have been attributed to multiple introductions from different sources, hybridization with native populations, or rapid adaptive evolution. Here, we investigate population genomic patterns of the reef-building coral Acropora hyacinthus along a latitudinal cline that includes a well-established range expansion front in Japan using 2b-RAD sequencing. A total of 184 coral samples were collected across seven sites spanning from ~24°N to near its northern range front at ~33°N. We uncover the presence of three cryptic lineages of A. hyacinthus, which occupy discrete reefs within this region. Only one lineage is present along the expansion front and we find evidence for its historical occupation of marginal habitats. Within this lineage we also find evidence of bottleneck pressures associated with expansion events including higher clonality, increased linkage disequilibrium, and lower genetic diversity in range edge populations compared to core populations. Asymmetric migration between populations was also detected with lower migration from edge sites. Lastly, we describe genomic signatures of local adaptation potentially attributed to lower winter temperatures experienced at the more recently expanded northern populations. Together these data illuminate the genomic consequences of range expansion in a coral and highlight how adaptation to discrete environments along expansion fronts may facilitate further range expansion in this temperate coral lineage.

Paleobiology provides glimpses of future ocean

Fossil records from tropical oceans predict biodiversity loss in a warmer world.

Factors Limiting the Range Extension of Corals into High-Latitude Reef Regions

Reef-building corals show a marked decrease in total species richness from the tropics to high latitude regions. Several hypotheses have been proposed to account for this pattern in the context of abiotic and biotic factors, including temperature thresholds, light limitation, aragonite saturation, nutrient or sediment loads, larval dispersal constraints, competition with macro-algae or other invertebrates, and availability of suitable settlement cues or micro-algal symbionts. Surprisingly, there is a paucity of data supporting several of these hypotheses. Given the immense pressures faced by corals in the Anthropocene, it is critical to understand the factors limiting their distribution in order to predict potential range expansions and the role that high latitude reefs can play as refuges from climate change. This review examines these factors and outlines critical research areas to address knowledge gaps in our understanding of light/temperature interactions, coral-Symbiodiniaceae associations, settlement cues, and competition in high latitude reefs.

The population genomic structure of green turtles (Chelonia mydas) suggests a warm-water corridor for tropical marine fauna between the Atlantic and Indian oceans during the last interglacial

The occasional westward transport of warm water of the Agulhas Current, "Agulhas leakage", around southern Africa has been suggested to facilitate tropical marine connectivity between the Atlantic and Indian oceans, but the "Agulhas leakage" hypothesis does not explain the signatures of eastward gene flow observed in many tropical marine fauna. We investigated an alternative hypothesis: the establishment of a warm-water corridor during comparatively warm interglacial periods. The "warm-water corridor" hypothesis was investigated by studying the population genomic structure of Atlantic and Southwest Indian Ocean green turtles (N = 27) using 12,035 genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) obtained via ddRAD sequencing. Model-based and multivariate clustering suggested a hierarchical population structure with two main Atlantic and Southwest Indian Ocean clusters, and a Caribbean and East Atlantic sub-cluster nested within the Atlantic cluster. Coalescent-based model selection supported a model where Southwest Indian Ocean and Caribbean populations diverged from the East Atlantic population during the transition from the last interglacial period (130-115 thousand years ago; kya) to the last glacial period (115-90 kya). The onset of the last glaciation appeared to isolate Atlantic and Southwest Indian Ocean green turtles into three refugia, which subsequently came into secondary contact in the Caribbean and Southwest Indian Ocean when global temperatures increased after the Last Glacial Maximum. Our findings support the establishment of a warm-water corridor facilitating tropical marine connectivity between the Atlantic and Southwest Indian Ocean during warm interglacials.

Influence of historical changes in tropical reef habitat on the diversification of coral reef fishes

Past environmental changes are expected to have profoundly impacted diversity dynamics through time. While some previous studies showed an association between past climate changes or tectonic events and important shifts in lineage diversification, it is only recently that past environmental changes have been explicitly integrated in diversification models to test their influence on diversification rates. Here, we used a global reconstruction of tropical reef habitat dynamics during the Cenozoic and phylogenetic diversification models to test the influence of (i) major geological events, (ii) reef habitat fragmentation and (iii) reef area on the diversification of 9 major clades of tropical reef fish (Acanthuridae, Balistoidea, Carangoidea, Chaetodontidae, Haemulinae, Holocentridae, Labridae, Pomacentridae and Sparidae). The diversification models revealed a weak association between paleo-habitat changes and diversification dynamics. Specifically, the fragmentation of tropical reef habitats over the Cenozoic was found to be a driver of tropical reef fish diversification for 2 clades. However, overall, our approach did not allow the identification of striking associations between diversification dynamics and paleo-habitat fragmentation in contrast with theoretical model's predictions.

Climate and the latitudinal limits of subtropical reef development

Climate plays a central role in coral-reef development, especially in marginal environments. The high-latitude reefs of southeast Florida are currently non-accreting, relict systems with low coral cover. This region also did not support the extensive Late Pleistocene reef development observed in many other locations around the world; however, there is evidence of significant reef building in southeast Florida during the Holocene. Using 146 radiometric ages from reefs extending ~ 120 km along Florida's southeast coast, we test the hypothesis that the latitudinal extent of Holocene reef development in this region was modulated by climatic variability. We demonstrate that although sea-level changes impacted rates of reef accretion and allowed reefs to backstep inshore as new habitats were flooded, sea level was not the ultimate cause of reef demise. Instead, we conclude that climate was the primary driver of the expansion and contraction of Florida's reefs during the Holocene. Reefs grew to 26.7° N in southeast Florida during the relatively warm, stable climate at the beginning of the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) ~ 10,000 years ago, but subsequent cooling and increased frequency of winter cold fronts were associated with the equatorward contraction of reef building. By ~ 7800 years ago, actively accreting reefs only extended to 26.1° N. Reefs further contracted to 25.8° N after 5800 years ago, and by 3000 years ago reef development had terminated throughout southern Florida (24.5-26.7° N). Modern warming is unlikely to simply reverse this trend, however, because the climate of the Anthropocene will be fundamentally different from the HTM. By increasing the frequency and intensity of both warm and cold extreme-weather events, contemporary climate change will instead amplify conditions inimical to reef development in marginal reef environments such as southern Florida, making them more likely to continue to deteriorate than to resume accretion in the future.

Global warming is causing a more pronounced dip in marine species richness around the equator

The latitudinal gradient in species richness, with more species in the tropics and richness declining with latitude, is widely known and has been assumed to be stable over recent centuries. We analyzed data on 48,661 marine animal species since 1955, accounting for sampling variation, to assess whether the global latitudinal gradient in species richness is being impacted by climate change. We confirm recent studies that show a slight dip in species richness at the equator. Moreover, richness across latitudinal bands was sensitive to temperature, reaching a plateau or declining above a mean annual sea surface temperature of 20 °C for most taxa. In response, since the 1970s, species richness has declined at the equator relative to an increase at midlatitudes and has shifted north in the northern hemisphere, particularly among pelagic species. This pattern is consistent with the hypothesis that climate change is impacting the latitudinal gradient in marine biodiversity at a global scale. The intensification of the dip in species richness at the equator, especially for pelagic species, suggests that it is already too warm there for some species to survive.

Truncated bimodal latitudinal diversity gradient in early Paleozoic phytoplankton

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG)-the decline in species richness from the equator to the poles-is classically considered as the most pervasive macroecological pattern on Earth, but the timing of its establishment, its ubiquity in the geological past, and explanatory mechanisms remain uncertain. By combining empirical and modeling approaches, we show that the first representatives of marine phytoplankton exhibited an LDG from the beginning of the Cambrian, when most major phyla appeared. However, this LDG showed a single peak of diversity centered on the Southern Hemisphere, in contrast to the equatorial peak classically observed for most modern taxa. We find that this LDG most likely corresponds to a truncated bimodal gradient, which probably results from an uneven sediment preservation, smaller sampling effort, and/or lower initial diversity in the Northern Hemisphere. Variation of the documented LDG through time resulted primarily from fluctuations in annual sea-surface temperature and long-term climate changes.

Spatial sampling heterogeneity limits the detectability of deep time latitudinal biodiversity gradients

The latitudinal biodiversity gradient (LBG), in which species richness decreases from tropical to polar regions, is a pervasive pattern of the modern biosphere. Although the distribution of fossil occurrences suggests this pattern has varied through deep time, the recognition of palaeobiogeographic patterns is hampered by geological and anthropogenic biases. In particular, spatial sampling heterogeneity has the capacity to impact upon the reconstruction of deep time LBGs. Here we use a simulation framework to test the detectability of three different types of LBG (flat, unimodal and bimodal) over the last 300 Myr. We show that heterogeneity in spatial sampling significantly impacts upon the detectability of genuine LBGs, with known biodiversity patterns regularly obscured after applying the spatial sampling window of fossil collections. Sampling-standardization aids the reconstruction of relative biodiversity gradients, but cannot account for artefactual absences introduced by geological and anthropogenic biases. Therefore, we argue that some previous studies might have failed to recover the ‘true’ LBG type owing to incomplete and heterogeneous sampling, particularly between 200 and 20 Ma. Furthermore, these issues also have the potential to bias global estimates of past biodiversity, as well as inhibit the recognition of extinction and radiation events.

Coral reef diversity losses in China's Greater Bay Area were driven by regional stressors

Observations of coral reef losses to climate change far exceed our understanding of historical degradation before anthropogenic warming. This is a critical gap to fill as conservation efforts simultaneously work to reverse climate change while restoring coral reef diversity and function. Here, we focused on southern China's Greater Bay Area, where coral communities persist despite centuries of coral mining, fishing, dredging, development, and pollution. We compared subfossil assemblages with modern-day communities and revealed a 40% decrease in generic diversity, concomitant to a shift from competitive to stress-tolerant species dominance since the mid-Holocene. Regions with characteristically poor water quality-high chl-a, dissolved inorganic nitrogen, and turbidity-had lower contemporary diversity and the greatest community composition shift observed in the past, driven by the near extirpation of Acropora These observations highlight the urgent need to mitigate local stressors from development in concert with curbing greenhouse gas emissions.

Past and future decline of tropical pelagic biodiversity

A major research question concerning global pelagic biodiversity remains unanswered: when did the apparent tropical biodiversity depression (i.e., bimodality of latitudinal diversity gradient [LDG]) begin? The bimodal LDG may be a consequence of recent ocean warming or of deep-time evolutionary speciation and extinction processes. Using rich fossil datasets of planktonic foraminifers, we show here that a unimodal (or only weakly bimodal) diversity gradient, with a plateau in the tropics, occurred during the last ice age and has since then developed into a bimodal gradient through species distribution shifts driven by postglacial ocean warming. The bimodal LDG likely emerged before the Anthropocene and industrialization, and perhaps ∼15,000 y ago, indicating a strong environmental control of tropical diversity even before the start of anthropogenic warming. However, our model projections suggest that future anthropogenic warming further diminishes tropical pelagic diversity to a level not seen in millions of years.

High coral reef connectivity across the Indian Ocean is revealed 6-7 Ma ago by a turbid-water scleractinian assemblage from Tanzania (Eastern Africa)

The present centre of coral diversity in the Western Indian Ocean is defined by the northern Mozambique Channel with an extension northward to Mafia Island in Tanzania (Eastern Africa). The geological and evolutionary history of this hotspot of marine biodiversity remains so far completely obscure, because Cenozoic fossil reef communities of this area are not well known. This study presents a new fossil scleractinian fauna from the Mikindani Formation in southern Tanzania. It comprises 16 symbiotic coral taxa of which nine could be identified to the species and five to the genus level. Coral habitat consisted of low-relief biostromes that developed in shallow water at the front of the Rovuma Delta under conditions of variable sediment input. The biostromes are dated to be Messinian based on associated calcareous nannoplankton and planktic foraminifers. The studied coral assemblage shows close affinities with the Recent Western Indian Ocean biogeographic province and Central Indo-West Pacific biogeographic region as well as with the Miocene of Indonesia. Faunistic relations with the Oligocene-early Miocene of Somalia and Iran do not exist. The patterns of species distribution document a major palaeobiogeographic change in the Indian Ocean that correlates with the onset of the Miocene Indian Ocean Equatorial Jet during the middle Miocene. The clear Indonesian affinity of the Messinian coral fauna from southern Tanzania implies that this westerly oceanic surface current provided high biogeographic connectivity across the Indian Ocean during the late Miocene. Today, the coastal waters of Indonesia are located in the Coral Triangle. Diversification of this global epicentre of marine biodiversity started in the early Miocene and it was established already during the middle Miocene. Our results indicate that the East African hotspot of coral biodiversity originated as an offshoot of the Coral Triangle in the middle to late Miocene.

The biogeographical imprint of mass extinctions

Mass extinctions are defined by extinction rates significantly above background levels and have had substantial consequences for the evolution of life. Geographically selective extinctions, subsequent originations and species redistributions may have changed global biogeographical structure, but quantification of this change is lacking. In order to assess quantitatively the biogeographical impact of mass extinctions, we outline time-traceable bioregions for benthic marine species across the Phanerozoic using a compositional network. Mass extinction events are visually recognizable in the geographical depiction of bioregions. The end-Permian extinction stands out with a severe reduction of provinciality. Time series of biogeographical turnover represent a novel aspect of the analysis of mass extinctions, confirming concentration of changes in the geographical distribution of benthic marine life.

Coupling of palaeontological and neontological reef coral data improves forecasts of biodiversity responses under global climatic change

Reef corals are currently undergoing climatically driven poleward range expansions, with some evidence for equatorial range retractions. Predicting their response to future climate scenarios is critical to their conservation, but ecological models are based only on short-term observations. The fossil record provides the only empirical evidence for the long-term response of organisms under perturbed climate states. The palaeontological record from the Last Interglacial (LIG; 125 000 years ago), a time of global warming, suggests that reef corals experienced poleward range shifts and an equatorial decline relative to their modern distribution. However, this record is spatio-temporally biased, and existing methods cannot account for data absence. Here, we use ecological niche modelling to estimate reef corals' realized niche and LIG distribution, based on modern and fossil occurrences. We then make inferences about modelled habitability under two future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Reef coral ranges during the LIG were comparable to the present, with no prominent equatorial decrease in habitability. Reef corals are likely to experience poleward range expansion and large equatorial declines under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. However, this range expansion is probably optimistic in the face of anthropogenic climate change. Incorporation of fossil data in niche models improves forecasts of biodiversity responses under global climatic change.

Understanding interactions between plasticity, adaptation and range shifts in response to marine environmental change

Climate change is leading to shifts in species geographical distributions, but populations are also probably adapting to environmental change at different rates across their range. Owing to a lack of natural and empirical data on the influence of phenotypic adaptation on range shifts of marine species, we provide a general conceptual model for understanding population responses to climate change that incorporates plasticity and adaptation to environmental change in marine ecosystems. We use this conceptual model to help inform where within the geographical range each mechanism will probably operate most strongly and explore the supporting evidence in species. We then expand the discussion from a single-species perspective to community-level responses and use the conceptual model to visualize and guide research into the important yet poorly understood processes of plasticity and adaptation. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change'.

The origin and evolution of coral species richness in a marine biodiversity hotspot

The Coral Triangle (CT) region of the Indo-Pacific realm harbors an extraordinary number of species, with richness decreasing away from this biodiversity hotspot. Despite multiple competing hypotheses, the dynamics underlying this regional diversity pattern remain poorly understood. Here, we use a time-calibrated evolutionary tree of living reef coral species, their current geographic ranges, and model-based estimates of regional rates of speciation, extinction, and geographic range shifts to show that origination rates within the CT are lower than in surrounding regions, a result inconsistent with the long-standing center of origin hypothesis. Furthermore, endemism of coral species in the CT is low, and the CT endemics are older than relatives found outside this region. Overall, our model results suggest that the high diversity of reef corals in the CT is largely due to range expansions into this region of species that evolved elsewhere. These findings strongly support the notion that geographic range shifts play a critical role in generating species diversity gradients. They also show that preserving the processes that gave rise to the striking diversity of corals in the CT requires protecting not just reefs within the hotspot, but also those in the surrounding areas.

Towards a new paleotemperature proxy from reef coral occurrences

Global mean temperature is thought to have exceeded that of today during the last interglacial episode (LIG, ~ 125,000 yrs b.p.) but robust paleoclimate data are still rare in low latitudes. Occurrence data of tropical reef corals may provide new proxies of low latitude sea-surface temperatures. Using modern reef coral distributions we developed a geographically explicit model of sea surface temperatures. Applying this model to coral occurrence data of the LIG provides a latitudinal U-shaped pattern of temperature anomalies with cooler than modern temperatures around the equator and warmer subtropical climes. Our results agree with previously published estimates of LIG temperatures and suggest a poleward broadening of the habitable zone for reef corals during the LIG.

Crustose coralline algae increased framework and diversity on ancient coral reefs

Crustose coralline algae (CCA) are key producers of carbonate sediment on reefs today. Despite their importance in modern reef ecosystems, the long-term relationship of CCA with reef development has not been quantitatively assessed in the fossil record. This study includes data from 128 Cenozoic coral reefs collected from the Paleobiology Database, the Paleoreefs Database, as well as the original literature and assesses the correlation of CCA abundance with taxonomic diversity (both corals and reef dwellers) and framework of fossil coral reefs. Chi-squared tests show reef type is significantly correlated with CCA abundance and post-hoc tests indicate higher involvement of CCA is associated with stronger reef structure. Additionally, general linear models show coral reefs with higher amounts of CCA had a higher diversity of reef-dwelling organisms. These data have important implications for paleoecology as they demonstrate that CCA increased building capacity, structural integrity, and diversity of ancient coral reefs. The analyses presented here demonstrate that the function of CCA on modern coral reefs is similar to their function on Cenozoic reefs; thus, studies of ancient coral reef collapse are even more meaningful as modern analogues.

Unifying latitudinal gradients in range size and richness across marine and terrestrial systems

Many marine and terrestrial clades show similar latitudinal gradients in species richness, but opposite gradients in range size-on land, ranges are the smallest in the tropics, whereas in the sea, ranges are the largest in the tropics. Therefore, richness gradients in marine and terrestrial systems do not arise from a shared latitudinal arrangement of species range sizes. Comparing terrestrial birds and marine bivalves, we find that gradients in range size are concordant at the level of genera. Here, both groups show a nested pattern in which narrow-ranging genera are confined to the tropics and broad-ranging genera extend across much of the gradient. We find that (i) genus range size and its variation with latitude is closely associated with per-genus species richness and (ii) broad-ranging genera contain more species both within and outside of the tropics when compared with tropical- or temperate-only genera. Within-genus species diversification thus promotes genus expansion to novel latitudes. Despite underlying differences in the species range-size gradients, species-rich genera are more likely to produce a descendant that extends its range relative to the ancestor's range. These results unify species richness gradients with those of genera, implying that birds and bivalves share similar latitudinal dynamics in net species diversification.

Managing consequences of climate-driven species redistribution requires integration of ecology, conservation and social science

Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes in species redistribution biology, the importance of understanding underlying drivers and the need to anticipate novel outcomes of changes in species ranges. We highlight that species redistribution has manifest implications across multiple temporal and spatial scales and from genes to ecosystems. Understanding range shifts from ecological, physiological, genetic and biogeographical perspectives is essential for informing changing paradigms in conservation science and for designing conservation strategies that incorporate changing population connectivity and advance adaptation to climate change. Species redistributions present challenges for human well-being, environmental management and sustainable development. By synthesising recent approaches, theories and tools, our review establishes an interdisciplinary foundation for the development of future research on species redistribution. Specifically, we demonstrate how ecological, conservation and social research on species redistribution can best be achieved by working across disciplinary boundaries to develop and implement solutions to climate change challenges. Future studies should therefore integrate existing and complementary scientific frameworks while incorporating social science and human-centred approaches. Finally, we emphasise that the best science will not be useful unless more scientists engage with managers, policy makers and the public to develop responsible and socially acceptable options for the global challenges arising from species redistributions.

Forecasted coral reef decline in marine biodiversity hotspots under climate change

Coral bleaching events threaten coral reef habitats globally and cause severe declines of local biodiversity and productivity. Related to high sea surface temperatures (SST), bleaching events are expected to increase as a consequence of future global warming. However, response to climate change is still uncertain as future low-latitude climatic conditions have no present-day analogue. Sea surface temperatures during the Eocene epoch were warmer than forecasted changes for the coming century, and distributions of corals during the Eocene may help to inform models forecasting the future of coral reefs. We coupled contemporary and Eocene coral occurrences with information on their respective climatic conditions to model the thermal niche of coral reefs and its potential response to projected climate change. We found that under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the global suitability for coral reefs may increase up to 16% by 2100, mostly due to improved suitability of higher latitudes. In contrast, in its current range, coral reef suitability may decrease up to 46% by 2100. Reduction in thermal suitability will be most severe in biodiversity hotspots, especially in the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Our results suggest that many contemporary hotspots for coral reefs, including those that have been refugia in the past, spatially mismatch with future suitable areas for coral reefs posing challenges to conservation actions under climate change.

Climate sensitivity across marine domains of life: limits to evolutionary adaptation shape species interactions

Organisms in all domains, Archaea, Bacteria, and Eukarya will respond to climate change with differential vulnerabilities resulting in shifts in species distribution, coexistence, and interactions. The identification of unifying principles of organism functioning across all domains would facilitate a cause and effect understanding of such changes and their implications for ecosystem shifts. For example, the functional specialization of all organisms in limited temperature ranges leads us to ask for unifying functional reasons. Organisms also specialize in either anoxic or various oxygen ranges, with animals and plants depending on high oxygen levels. Here, we identify thermal ranges, heat limits of growth, and critically low (hypoxic) oxygen concentrations as proxies of tolerance in a meta-analysis of data available for marine organisms, with special reference to domain-specific limits. For an explanation of the patterns and differences observed, we define and quantify a proxy for organismic complexity across species from all domains. Rising complexity causes heat (and hypoxia) tolerances to decrease from Archaea to Bacteria to uni- and then multicellular Eukarya. Within and across domains, taxon-specific tolerance limits likely reflect ultimate evolutionary limits of its species to acclimatization and adaptation. We hypothesize that rising taxon-specific complexities in structure and function constrain organisms to narrower environmental ranges. Low complexity as in Archaea and some Bacteria provide life options in extreme environments. In the warmest oceans, temperature maxima reach and will surpass the permanent limits to the existence of multicellular animals, plants and unicellular phytoplankter. Smaller, less complex unicellular Eukarya, Bacteria, and Archaea will thus benefit and predominate even more in a future, warmer, and hypoxic ocean.

Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification

Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world's tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches (Maximum Entropy and Boosted Regression Trees) with two levels of complexity (one a simplified and reduced environmental variable version of the other). Our models project a marked temperature-driven decline in habitat suitability for many of the most significant and bio-diverse tropical coral regions, particularly in the central Indo-Pacific. This is accompanied by a temperature-driven poleward range expansion of favorable conditions accelerating up to 40-70 km per decade by 2070. We find that ocean acidification is less influential for determining future habitat suitability than warming, and its deleterious effects are centered evenly in both hemispheres between 5° and 20° latitude. Contrary to expectations, the combined impact of ocean surface temperature rise and acidification leads to little, if any, degradation in future habitat suitability across much of the Atlantic and areas currently considered 'marginal' for tropical corals, such as the eastern Equatorial Pacific. These results are consistent with fossil evidence of range expansions during past warm periods. In addition, the simplified models are particularly sensitive to short-term temperature variations and their projections correlate well with reported locations of bleaching events. Our approach offers new insights into the relative impact of two global environmental pressures associated with rising atmospheric CO2 on potential future habitats, but greater understanding of past and current controls on coral reef ecosystems is essential to their conservation and management under a changing climate.

The latitudinal biodiversity gradient through deep time

Today, biodiversity decreases from equatorial to polar regions. This is a fundamental pattern governing the distribution of extant organisms, the understanding of which is critical to predicting climatically driven biodiversity loss. However, its causes remain unresolved. The fossil record offers a unique perspective on the evolution of this latitudinal biodiversity gradient (LBG), providing a dynamic system in which to explore spatiotemporal diversity fluctuations. Deep-time studies indicate that a tropical peak and poleward decline in species diversity has not been a persistent pattern throughout the Phanerozoic, but is restricted to intervals of the Palaeozoic and the past 30 million years. A tropical peak might characterise cold icehouse climatic regimes, whereas warmer greenhouse regimes display temperate diversity peaks or flattened gradients.

Predicting evolutionary responses to climate change in the sea

An increasing number of short-term experimental studies show significant effects of projected ocean warming and ocean acidification on the performance on marine organisms. Yet, it remains unclear if we can reliably predict the impact of climate change on marine populations and ecosystems, because we lack sufficient understanding of the capacity for marine organisms to adapt to rapid climate change. In this review, we emphasise why an evolutionary perspective is crucial to understanding climate change impacts in the sea and examine the approaches that may be useful for addressing this challenge. We first consider what the geological record and present-day analogues of future climate conditions can tell us about the potential for adaptation to climate change. We also examine evidence that phenotypic plasticity may assist marine species to persist in a rapidly changing climate. We then outline the various experimental approaches that can be used to estimate evolutionary potential, focusing on molecular tools, quantitative genetics, and experimental evolution, and we describe the benefits of combining different approaches to gain a deeper understanding of evolutionary potential. Our goal is to provide a platform for future research addressing the evolutionary potential for marine organisms to cope with climate change.

Spatial and temporal patterns of eastern Australia subtropical coral communities

Despite increases in the frequency and intensity of disturbances on coral reefs over the past few decades, the response of subtropical coral assemblages to climate change is poorly understood. To address this knowledge gap on Australian reefs and provide a baseline for future comparisons, we quantified spatial (10-100's of kilometres) and temporal (decadal) patterns of benthic assemblages across a latitudinal gradient along the east Australian coastline (23.5° S to 31.5° S). Benthic community composition was quantified at six locations from the southern Great Barrier Reef, Queensland (Heron Reef, 23.5° S, 152° E) to northern New South Wales (31° S, 153.1° E) and at Lord Howe Island (31.5° S, 159.1° E). Our results indicate significant latitudinal differences in benthic assemblages, while community composition at some sites was more similar to those hundreds of kilometres away than to that of neighbouring reefs. A general trend was observed with decreasing cover of Acroporidae with increasing latitude, corresponding with an increasing cover of Pocilloporidae and Dendrophylliidae. Heron Reef comprised a high proportion of Acropora corals (43% total coral cover) and coralline algae (44%). In contrast, high-latitude reefs were dominated by mixed coral assemblages (0-52%) and high macroalgal cover (16-27%). Decadal comparisons of high-latitude reefs showed regional stability of benthic assemblages (9 out of 11 assemblages remained stable at > 75% similarity), during a period of warming oceans (0.15-0.24°C per decade). Such temporal stability suggests that eastern Australian subtropical communities may be more resistant than tropical reef communities that have experienced assembly shifts caused by perturbations associated with recent global climate change. Despite the clear differences in the structure of coral assemblages evident in our spatial surveys, we suggest that the temporal stability of high-latitude reefs may provide a limited refuge for tropical coral populations in an increasingly uncertain future.

Faunal breaks and species composition of Indo-Pacific corals: the role of plate tectonics, environment and habitat distribution

Species richness gradients are ubiquitous in nature, but the mechanisms that generate and maintain these patterns at macroecological scales remain unresolved. We use a new approach that focuses on overlapping geographical ranges of species to reveal that Indo-Pacific corals are assembled within 11 distinct faunal provinces. Province limits are characterized by co-occurrence of multiple species range boundaries. Unexpectedly, these faunal breaks are poorly predicted by contemporary environmental conditions and the present-day distribution of habitat. Instead, faunal breaks show striking concordance with geological features (tectonic plates and mantle plume tracks). The depth range over which a species occurs, its larval development rate and genus age are important determinants of the likelihood that species will straddle faunal breaks. Our findings indicate that historical processes, habitat heterogeneity and species colonization ability account for more of the present-day biogeographical patterns of corals than explanations based on the contemporary distribution of reefs or environmental conditions.