Genetic drift and within-host metapopulation dynamics of HIV-1 infection

Innovation in viruses: fitness valley crossing, neutral landscapes, or just duplications?

Viruses evolve by periods of relative stasis interleaved with sudden, rapid series of mutation fixations, known as evolutionary bursts. These bursts can be triggered by external factors, such as environmental changes, antiviral therapies, or spill-overs from reservoirs into novel host species. However, it has also been suggested that bursts may result from the intrinsic evolutionary dynamics of viruses. Indeed, bursts could be caused by fitness valley crossing, or a neutral exploration of a fitness plateau until an escape mutant is found. In order to investigate the importance of these intrinsic causes of evolutionary bursts, we used a simulation software package to perform massive evolution experiments of viral-like genomes. We tested two conditions: (i) after an external change and (ii) in a constant environment, with the latter condition guaranteeing the absence of an external triggering factor. As expected, an external change was almost systematically followed by an evolutionary burst. However, we also observed bursts in the constant environment as well, albeit much less frequently. We analyzed how many of these bursts are triggered by deleterious, quasi-neutral, or beneficial mutations and show that, while bursts can occasionally be triggered by valley crossing or traveling along neutral ridges, many of them were triggered by chromosomal rearrangements and, in particular, segmental duplications. Our results suggest that combinatorial differences between the different mutation types lead to punctuated evolutionary dynamics, with long periods of stasis occasionally interrupted by short periods of rapid evolution, akin to what is observed in virus evolution.

The molecular epidemiology of a dengue virus outbreak in Taiwan: population wide versus infrapopulation mutation analysis

Dengue virus (DENV) causes approximately 390 million dengue infections worldwide every year. There were 22,777 reported DENV infections in Tainan, Taiwan in 2015. In this study, we sequenced the C-prM-E genes from 45 DENV 2015 strains, and phylogenetic analysis based on C-prM-E genes revealed that all strains were classified as DENV serotype 2 Cosmopolitan genotype. Sequence analysis comparing different DENV-2 genotypes and Cosmopolitan DENV-2 sequences prior to 2015 showed a clade replacement event in the DENV-2 Cosmopolitan genotype. Additionally, a major substitution C-A314G (K73R) was found in the capsid region which may have contributed to the clade replacement event. Reverse genetics virus rgC-A314G (K73R) showed slower replication in BHK-21 and C6/36 cells compared to wildtype virus, as well as a decrease in NS1 production in BHK-21-infected cells. After a series of passaging, the C-A314G (K73R) mutation reverted to wildtype and was thus considered to be unstable. Next generation sequencing (NGS) of three sera collected from a single DENV2-infected patient at 1-, 2-, and 5-days post-admission was employed to examine the genetic diversity over-time and mutations that may work in conjunction with C-A314G (K73R). Results showed that the number of haplotypes decreased with time in the DENV-infected patient. On the fifth day after admission, two new haplotypes emerged, and a single non-synonymous NS4A-L115I mutation was identified. Therefore, we have identified a persistent mutation C-A314G (K73R) in all of the DENV-2 isolates, and during the course of an infection, a single new non-synonymous mutation in the NS4A region appears in the virus population within a single host. The C-A314G (K73R) thus may have played a role in the DENV-2 2015 outbreak while the NS4A-L115I may be advantageous during DENV infection within the host.

Human immunodeficiency virus dynamics in secondary lymphoid tissues and the evolution of cytotoxic T lymphocyte escape mutants

In secondary lymphoid tissues, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) can replicate in both the follicular and extrafollicular compartments. Yet, virus is concentrated in the follicular compartment in the absence of antiretroviral therapy, in part due to the lack of cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL)-mediated activity there. CTLs home to the extrafollicular compartment, where they can suppress virus load to relatively low levels. We use mathematical models to show that this compartmentalization can explain seemingly counter-intuitive observations. First, it can explain the observed constancy of the viral decline slope during antiviral therapy in the peripheral blood, irrespective of the presence of CTL in Simian Immunodeficiency Virus (SIV)-infected macaques, under the assumption that CTL-mediated lysis significantly contributes to virus suppression. Second, it can account for the relatively long times it takes for CTL escape mutants to emerge during chronic infection even if CTL-mediated lysis is responsible for virus suppression. The reason is the heterogeneity in CTL activity and the consequent heterogeneity in selection pressure between the follicular and extrafollicular compartments. Hence, to understand HIV dynamics more thoroughly, this analysis highlights the importance of measuring virus populations separately in the extrafollicular and follicular compartments rather than using virus load in peripheral blood as an observable; this hides the heterogeneity between compartments that might be responsible for the particular patterns seen in the dynamics and evolution of the HIV in vivo.

Natural Selection, Intracellular Bottlenecks of Virus Populations, and Viral Superinfection Exclusion

Natural selection acts on cellular organisms by ensuring the genes responsible for an advantageous phenotype consistently reap the phenotypic advantage. This is possible because reproductive cells of these organisms are almost always haploid, separating the beneficial gene from its rival allele at every generation. How natural selection acts on plus-strand RNA viruses is unclear because these viruses frequently load host cells with numerous genome copies and replicate thousands of progeny genomes in each cell. Recent studies suggest that these viruses encode the Bottleneck, Isolate, Amplify, Select (BIAS) mechanism that blocks all but a few viral genome copies from replication, thus creating the environment in which the bottleneck-escaping viral genome copies are isolated from each other, allowing natural selection to reward beneficial mutations and purge lethal errors. This BIAS mechanism also blocks the genomes of highly homologous superinfecting viruses, thus explaining cellular-level superinfection exclusion. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Virology, Volume 9 is September 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

Long-read sequencing reveals the evolutionary drivers of intra-host diversity across natural RNA mycovirus infections

Intra-host dynamics are a core component of virus evolution but most intra-host data come from a narrow range of hosts or experimental infections. Gaining broader information on the intra-host diversity and dynamics of naturally occurring virus infections is essential to our understanding of evolution across the virosphere. Here we used PacBio long-read HiFi sequencing to characterize the intra-host populations of natural infections of the RNA mycovirus Cryphonectria hypovirus 1 (CHV1). CHV1 is a biocontrol agent for the chestnut blight fungus (Cryphonectria parasitica), which co-invaded Europe alongside the fungus. We characterized the mutational and haplotypic intra-host virus diversity of thirty-eight natural CHV1 infections spread across four locations in Croatia and Switzerland. Intra-host CHV1 diversity values were shaped by purifying selection and accumulation of mutations over time as well as epistatic interactions within the host genome at defense loci. Geographical landscape features impacted CHV1 inter-host relationships through restricting dispersal and causing founder effects. Interestingly, a small number of intra-host viral haplotypes showed high sequence similarity across large geographical distances unlikely to be linked by dispersal.

Mutability of demographic noise in microbial range expansions

Demographic noise, the change in the composition of a population due to random birth and death events, is an important driving force in evolution because it reduces the efficacy of natural selection. Demographic noise is typically thought to be set by the population size and the environment, but recent experiments with microbial range expansions have revealed substantial strain-level differences in demographic noise under the same growth conditions. Many genetic and phenotypic differences exist between strains; to what extent do single mutations change the strength of demographic noise? To investigate this question, we developed a high-throughput method for measuring demographic noise in colonies without the need for genetic manipulation. By applying this method to 191 randomly-selected single gene deletion strains from the E. coli Keio collection, we find that a typical single gene deletion mutation decreases demographic noise by 8% (maximal decrease: 81%). We find that the strength of demographic noise is an emergent trait at the population level that can be predicted by colony-level traits but not cell-level traits. The observed differences in demographic noise from single gene deletions can increase the establishment probability of beneficial mutations by almost an order of magnitude (compared to in the wild type). Our results show that single mutations can substantially alter adaptation through their effects on demographic noise and suggest that demographic noise can be an evolvable trait of a population.

Role of Tunneling Nanotube-like Structures during the Early Events of HIV Infection: Novel Features of Tissue Compartmentalization and Mechanism of HIV Spread

HIV has become a chronic disease despite the effective use of antiretroviral therapy (ART). However, the mechanisms of tissue colonization, viral evolution, generation of viral reservoirs, and compartmentalization are still a matter of debate due to the challenges involved in examining early events of infection at the cellular and molecular level. Thus, there is still an urgent need to explore these areas to develop effective HIV cure strategies. In this study, we describe the early events of tissue colonization and compartmentalization as well as the role of tunneling nanotube-like structures during viral spread in the presence and absence of effective antiretroviral treatment. To examine these mechanisms, NOD/SCID IL-2 RG^-/- humanized mice were either directly infected with HIV_ADA or with low numbers of HIV_ADA-infected leukocytes to limit tissue colonization in the presence and absence of TAK779, an effective CCR5 blocker of HIV entry. We identify that viral seeding in tissues occurs early in a tissue- and cell type-specific manner (24-72 h). Reduction in systemic HIV replication by TAK779 treatment did not affect tissue seeding or spreading, despite reduced systemic viral replication. Tissue-associated HIV-infected cells had different properties than cells in the circulation because the virus continues to spread in tissues in a tunneling nanotube-like structure-dependent manner, despite ART. Thus, understanding these mechanisms can provide new approaches to enhance the efficacy of existing ART and HIV infection cure strategies.

Evidence for both Intermittent and Persistent Compartmentalization of HIV-1 in the Female Genital Tract

HIV-1 has been shown to evolve independently in different anatomical compartments, but studies in the female genital tract have been inconclusive. Here, we examined evidence of compartmentalization using HIV-1 subtype C envelope (Env) glycoprotein genes (gp160) obtained from matched cervicovaginal lavage (CVL) and plasma samples over 2 to 3 years of infection. HIV-1 gp160 amplification from CVL was achieved for only 4 of 18 acutely infected women, and this was associated with the presence of proinflammatory cytokines and/or measurable viremia in the CVL. Maximum likelihood trees and divergence analyses showed that all four individuals had monophyletic compartment-specific clusters of CVL- and/or plasma-derived gp160 sequences at all or some time points. However, two participants (CAP177 and CAP217) had CVL gp160 diversity patterns that differed from those in plasma and showed restricted viral flow from the CVL. Statistical tests of compartmentalization revealed evidence of persistent compartment-specific gp160 evolution in CAP177, while in CAP217 this was intermittent. Lastly, we identified several Env sites that distinguished viruses in these two compartments; for CAP177, amino acid differences arose largely through positive selection, while insertions/deletions were more common in CAP217. In both cases these differences contributed to substantial charge changes spread across the Env. Our data indicate that, in some women, HIV-1 populations within the genital tract can have Env genetic features that differ from those of viruses in plasma, which could impact the sensitivity of viruses in the genital tract to vaginal microbicides and vaccine-elicited antibodies.IMPORTANCE Most HIV-1 infections in sub-Saharan Africa are acquired heterosexually through the genital mucosa. Understanding the properties of viruses replicating in the female genital tract, and whether these properties differ from those of more commonly studied viruses replicating in the blood, is therefore important. Using longitudinal CVL and plasma-derived sequences from four HIV-1 subtype C-infected women, we found fewer viral migrations from the genital tract to plasma than in the opposite direction, suggesting a mucosal sieve effect from the genital tract to the blood compartment. Evidence for both persistent and intermittent compartmentalization between the genital tract and plasma viruses during chronic infection was detected in two of four individuals, perhaps explaining previously conflicting findings. In cases where compartmentalization occurred, comparison of CVL- and plasma-derived HIV sequences indicated that distinct features of viral populations in the CVL may affect the efficacy of microbicides and vaccines designed to provide mucosal immunity.

The Puzzle of HIV Neutral and Selective Evolution

HIV is one of the fastest evolving organisms known. It evolves about 1 million times faster than its host, humans. Because HIV establishes chronic infections, with continuous evolution, its divergence within a single infected human surpasses the divergence of the entire humanoid history. Yet, it is still the same virus, infecting the same cell types and using the same replication machinery year after year. Hence, one would think that most mutations that HIV accumulates are neutral. But the picture is more complicated than that. HIV evolution is also a clear example of strong positive selection, that is, mutants have a survival advantage. How do these facts come together?

The evolutionary dynamics of H1N1/pdm2009 in India

After the 2009 pandemic H1N1 outbreak, this new reassortant virus replaced the previous seasonal H1N1 and established itself in human populations. In 2014-2015, the H1N1/pdm2009 pandemic strain caused the worst influenza outbreak in India in recent years. It is still unclear whether this outbreak was due to a genetic change in the H1N1/pdm2009 virus. Here, we collected all available data from India, and used data from other South and Southeast Asian countries (Bangladesh, Myanmar, Nepal, Singapore, and Vietnam) that are geographically nearby India for comparison, to examine the evolutionary dynamics of this influenza virus. We detected signals of population expansion in both HA and NA in the 2014/2015 season in India, which coincided with the outbreak in India of 2015. Signals of positive selection in HA in the 2012/2013 and 2013/2014 seasons, and in NA in the 2012/2013 and 2014/2015 seasons were also found. These selective patterns were different from those seen in other South and Southeast Asian countries. However, none of the eight positively selected sites are endemic to India. The rapid circulation of H1N1/pdm2009 between these South and Southeast Asian countries may explain this result. Further studies are still needed to identify the genetic basis of the great 2015 outbreak in India.

Virus and CTL dynamics in the extrafollicular and follicular tissue compartments in SIV-infected macaques

Data from SIV-infected macaques indicate that virus-specific cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) are mostly present in the extrafollicular (EF) compartment of the lymphoid tissue, with reduced homing to the follicular (F) site. This contributes to the majority of the virus being present in the follicle and represents a barrier to virus control. Using mathematical models, we investigate these dynamics. Two models are analyzed. The first assumes that CTL can only become stimulated and expand in the extrafollicular compartment, with migration accounting for the presence of CTL in the follicle. In the second model, follicular CTL can also undergo antigen-induced expansion. Consistent with experimental data, both models predict increased virus compartmentalization in the presence of stronger CTL responses and lower virus loads, and a more pronounced rise of extrafollicular compared to follicular virus during CD8 cell depletion experiments. The models, however, differ in other aspects. The follicular expansion model results in dynamics that promote the clearance of productive infection in the extrafollicular site, with any productively infected cells found being the result of immigration from the follicle. This is not observed in the model without follicular CTL expansion. The models further predict different consequences of introducing engineered, follicular-homing CTL, which has been proposed as a therapeutic means to improve virus control. Without follicular CTL expansion, this is predicted to result in a reduction of virus load in both compartments. The follicular CTL expansion model, however, makes the counter-intuitive prediction that addition of F-homing CTL not only results in a reduction of follicular virus load, but also in an increase in extrafollicular virus replication. These predictions remain to be experimentally tested, which will be relevant for distinguishing between models and for understanding how therapeutic introduction of F-homing CTL might impact the overall dynamics of the infection.

A better understanding of immune response dynamics and virus control in HIV infection is an important goal of current research. While measurements are often recorded in the blood, intricate dynamics occur in the lymphoid tissue. Recent data indicate that killer T cell responses, or CTL, show reduced homing to the follicular compartment of the lymphoid tissue, while the majority of the CTL remain in the extrafollicular site, which appears to contribute to the observed unequal distribution of virus load in the two locations. Here, these dynamics are studied with 2-compartment mathematical models. They reproduce previously published as well as newly presented experimental data from CTL depletion studies. Beyond this, the models indicate that so far unknown details of the CTL dynamics, in particular the potential of CTL to undergo antigen-induced expansion in the follicular compartment, can be important determinants of outcome. We find that antigen-induced expansion of CTL in the follicular site can result in more pronounced virus compartmentalization, and essentially in clearance of virus-producing cells from the extrafollicular site. We use the models to predict how experimental addition of engineered, follicular-homing CTL to macaques, influence the overall infection dynamics and level of virus control. Understanding these dynamics is an important step in attempts to improve the level of immune-mediated virus control.

Neutral Theory and Rapidly Evolving Viral Pathogens

The evolution of viral pathogens is shaped by strong selective forces that are exerted during jumps to new hosts, confrontations with host immune responses and antiviral drugs, and numerous other processes. However, while undeniably strong and frequent, adaptive evolution is largely confined to small parts of information-packed viral genomes, and the majority of observed variation is effectively neutral. The predictions and implications of the neutral theory have proven immensely useful in this context, with applications spanning understanding within-host population structure, tracing the origins and spread of viral pathogens, predicting evolutionary dynamics, and modeling the emergence of drug resistance. We highlight the multiple ways in which the neutral theory has had an impact, which has been accelerated in the age of high-throughput, high-resolution genomics.

Why Human Papillomavirus Acute Infections Matter

Most infections by human papillomaviruses (HPVs) are `acute', that is non-persistent. Yet, for HPVs, as for many other oncoviruses, there is a striking gap between our detailed understanding of chronic infections and our limited data on the early stages of infection. Here we argue that studying HPV acute infections is necessary and timely. Focusing on early interactions will help explain why certain infections are cleared while others become chronic or latent. From a molecular perspective, descriptions of immune effectors and pro-inflammatory pathways during the initial stages of infections have the potential to lead to novel treatments or to improved handling algorithms. From a dynamical perspective, adopting concepts from spatial ecology, such as meta-populations or meta-communities, can help explain why HPV acute infections sometimes last for years. Furthermore, cervical cancer screening and vaccines impose novel iatrogenic pressures on HPVs, implying that anticipating any viral evolutionary response remains essential. Finally, hints at the associations between HPV acute infections and fertility deserve further investigation given their high, worldwide prevalence. Overall, understanding asymptomatic and benign infections may be instrumental in reducing HPV virulence.

Mutation and recombination in pathogen evolution: Relevance, methods and controversies

Mutation and recombination drive the evolution of most pathogens by generating the genetic variants upon which selection operates. Those variants can, for example, confer resistance to host immune systems and drug therapies or lead to epidemic outbreaks. Given their importance, diverse evolutionary studies have investigated the abundance and consequences of mutation and recombination in pathogen populations. However, some controversies persist regarding the contribution of each evolutionary force to the development of particular phenotypic observations (e.g., drug resistance). In this study, we revise the importance of mutation and recombination in the evolution of pathogens at both intra-host and inter-host levels. We also describe state-of-the-art analytical methodologies to detect and quantify these two evolutionary forces, including biases that are often ignored in evolutionary studies. Finally, we present some of our former studies involving pathogenic taxa where mutation and recombination played crucial roles in the recovery of pathogenic fitness, the generation of interspecific genetic diversity, or the design of centralized vaccines. This review also illustrates several common controversies and pitfalls in the analysis and in the evaluation and interpretation of mutation and recombination outcomes.

Accurate predictions of population-level changes in sequence and structural properties of HIV-1 Env using a volatility-controlled diffusion model

The envelope glycoproteins (Envs) of HIV-1 continuously evolve in the host by random mutations and recombination events. The resulting diversity of Env variants circulating in the population and their continuing diversification process limit the efficacy of AIDS vaccines. We examined the historic changes in Env sequence and structural features (measured by integrity of epitopes on the Env trimer) in a geographically defined population in the United States. As expected, many Env features were relatively conserved during the 1980s. From this state, some features diversified whereas others remained conserved across the years. We sought to identify “clues” to predict the observed historic diversification patterns. Comparison of viruses that cocirculate in patients at any given time revealed that each feature of Env (sequence or structural) exists at a defined level of variance. The in-host variance of each feature is highly conserved among individuals but can vary between different HIV-1 clades. We designate this property “volatility” and apply it to model evolution of features as a linear diffusion process that progresses with increasing genetic distance. Volatilities of different features are highly correlated with their divergence in longitudinally monitored patients. Volatilities of features also correlate highly with their population-level diversification. Using volatility indices measured from a small number of patient samples, we accurately predict the population diversity that developed for each feature over the course of 30 years. Amino acid variants that evolved at key antigenic sites are also predicted well. Therefore, small “fluctuations” in feature values measured in isolated patient samples accurately describe their potential for population-level diversification. These tools will likely contribute to the design of population-targeted AIDS vaccines by effectively capturing the diversity of currently circulating strains and addressing properties of variants expected to appear in the future.

HIV-1 is the causative agent of the global AIDS pandemic. The envelope glycoproteins (Envs) of HIV-1 constitute a primary target for antibody-based vaccines. However, the diversity of Envs in the population limits the potential efficacy of this approach. Accurate estimates of the range of variants that currently infect patients and those expected to appear in the future will likely contribute to the design of population-targeted immunogens. We found that different properties (features) of Env have different propensities for small “fluctuations” in their values among viruses that infect patients at any given time point. This propensity of each feature for in-host variance, which we designate “volatility”, is conserved among patients. We apply this parameter to model the evolution of features (in patients and population) as a diffusion process driven by their “diffusion coefficients” (volatilities). Using volatilities measured from a few patient samples from the 1980s, we accurately predict properties of viruses that evolved in the population over the course of 30 years. The diffusion-based model described here efficiently captures evolution of phenotypes in biological systems controlled by a dominant random component.

The effective rate of influenza reassortment is limited during human infection

We characterise the evolutionary dynamics of influenza infection described by viral sequence data collected from two challenge studies conducted in human hosts. Viral sequence data were collected at regular intervals from infected hosts. Changes in the sequence data observed across time show that the within-host evolution of the virus was driven by the reversion of variants acquired during previous passaging of the virus. Treatment of some patients with oseltamivir on the first day of infection did not lead to the emergence of drug resistance variants in patients. Using an evolutionary model, we inferred the effective rate of reassortment between viral segments, measuring the extent to which randomly chosen viruses within the host exchange genetic material. We find strong evidence that the rate of effective reassortment is low, such that genetic associations between polymorphic loci in different segments are preserved during the course of an infection in a manner not compatible with epistasis. Combining our evidence with that of previous studies we suggest that spatial heterogeneity in the viral population may reduce the extent to which reassortment is observed. Our results do not contradict previous findings of high rates of viral reassortment in vitro and in small animal studies, but indicate that in human hosts the effective rate of reassortment may be substantially more limited.

The influenza virus is an important cause of disease in the human population. During the course of an infection the virus can evolve rapidly. An important mechanism of viral evolution is reassortment, whereby different segments of the influenza genome are shuffled with other segments, producing new viral combinations. Here we study natural selection and reassortment during the course of infections occurring in human hosts. Examining viral genome sequence data from these infections, we note that genetic variants that were acquired during the growth of viruses in culture are selected against in the human host. In addition, we find evidence that the effective rate of reassortment is low. We suggest that the spatial separation between viruses in different parts of the host airway may limit the extent to which genetically distinct segments reassort with one another. Within the global population of influenza viruses, reassortment remains an important factor. However, reassortment is not so rapid as to exclude the possibility of interactions between genome segments affecting the course of influenza evolution during a single infection.

Large Variations in HIV-1 Viral Load Explained by Shifting-Mosaic Metapopulation Dynamics

The viral population of HIV-1, like many pathogens that cause systemic infection, is structured and differentiated within the body. The dynamics of cellular immune trafficking through the blood and within compartments of the body has also received wide attention. Despite these advances, mathematical models, which are widely used to interpret and predict viral and immune dynamics in infection, typically treat the infected host as a well-mixed homogeneous environment. Here, we present mathematical, analytical, and computational results that demonstrate that consideration of the spatial structure of the viral population within the host radically alters predictions of previous models. We study the dynamics of virus replication and cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) within a metapopulation of spatially segregated patches, representing T cell areas connected by circulating blood and lymph. The dynamics of the system depend critically on the interaction between CTLs and infected cells at the within-patch level. We show that for a wide range of parameters, the system admits an unexpected outcome called the shifting-mosaic steady state. In this state, the whole body’s viral population is stable over time, but the equilibrium results from an underlying, highly dynamic process of local infection and clearance within T-cell centers. Notably, and in contrast to previous models, this new model can explain the large differences in set-point viral load (SPVL) observed between patients and their distribution, as well as the relatively low proportion of cells infected at any one time, and alters the predicted determinants of viral load variation.

A novel metapopulation model of HIV suggests that within-host infections are characterized by a highly dynamic process of localized infection followed by clearance within T cell centers.

When a person is infected with HIV, the initial peak level of virus in the blood is usually very high before a lower, relatively stable level is reached and maintained for the duration of the chronic infection. This stable level is known as the set-point viral load (SPVL) and is associated with severity of infection. SPVL is also highly variable among patients, ranging from 100 to a million copies of the virus per mL of blood. The replicative capacity of the infecting virus and the strength of the immune response both influence SPVL. However, standard mathematical models show that variation in these two factors cannot easily reproduce the observed distribution of SPVL among patients. Standard models typically treat infected individuals as well-mixed systems, but in reality viral replication is localised in T-cell centres, or patches, found in secondary lymphoid tissue. To account for this population structure, we developed a carefully parameterised metapopulation model. We find the system can reach a steady state at which the viral load in the blood is relatively stable, representing SPVL, but surprisingly, the patches are highly dynamic, characterised by bursts of infection followed by elimination of virus due to localised host immune responses. Significantly, this model can reproduce the wide distribution of SPVLs found among infected individuals for realistic distributions of viral replicative capacity and strength of immune response. Our model can also be used in the future to understand other aspects of chronic HIV infection.

Host-Specific and Segment-Specific Evolutionary Dynamics of Avian and Human Influenza A Viruses: A Systematic Review

Understanding the evolutionary dynamics of influenza viruses is essential to control both avian and human influenza. Here, we analyze host-specific and segment-specific Tajima's D trends of influenza A virus through a systematic review using viral sequences registered in the National Center for Biotechnology Information. To avoid bias from viral population subdivision, viral sequences were stratified according to their sampling locations and sampling years. As a result, we obtained a total of 580 datasets each of which consists of nucleotide sequences of influenza A viruses isolated from a single population of hosts at a single sampling site within a single year. By analyzing nucleotide sequences in the datasets, we found that Tajima's D values of viral sequences were different depending on hosts and gene segments. Tajima's D values of viruses isolated from chicken and human samples showed negative, suggesting purifying selection or a rapid population growth of the viruses. The negative Tajima's D values in rapidly growing viral population were also observed in computer simulations. Tajima's D values of PB2, PB1, PA, NP, and M genes of the viruses circulating in wild mallards were close to zero, suggesting that these genes have undergone neutral selection in constant-sized population. On the other hand, Tajima's D values of HA and NA genes of these viruses were positive, indicating HA and NA have undergone balancing selection in wild mallards. Taken together, these results indicated the existence of unknown factors that maintain viral subtypes in wild mallards.

The role of pathogen shedding in linking within- and between-host pathogen dynamics

A model linking within- and between-host pathogen dynamics via pathogen shedding (emission of pathogens throughout the course of infection) is developed, and several aspects of host availability and co-infection are considered. In this model, the rate of pathogen shedding affects both the pathogen population size within a host (also affecting host mortality) and the rate of infection of new hosts. Our goal is to ascertain how the rate of shedding is likely to evolve, and what factors permit coexistence of alternative shedding rates in a pathogen population. For a constant host population size (where an increase in infected hosts necessarily decreases susceptible hosts), important differences arise depending on whether pathogens compete only for susceptible (uninfected) hosts, or whether co-infection allows for competition for infected hosts. With no co-infection, the pathogen type that can persist with the lowest number of susceptible hosts will outcompete any other, which under the assumptions of the model is the pathogen with the highest basic reproduction number. This is often a pathogen with a relatively high shedding rate (s). If within-host competition is allowed, a trade-off develops due to the conflicting effects of shedding on within- and between-host pathogen dynamics, with within-host competition favoring clones with low shedding rates while between-host competition benefits clones with higher shedding rates. With within-host competition for the same host cells, low shedding rate clones should eliminate high-s clones in a co-infected host, if equilibrium is reached. With co-infection, but no within-host competition, pathogen clones still interact by affecting the mortality of co-infected hosts; here, coexistence is more likely. With co-infection, two clones can coexist if one is the superior competitor for uninfected hosts and the other for co-infected hosts.

Dynamics of HIV infection in lymphoid tissue network

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a fast replicating ribonucleic acid virus, which can easily mutate in order to escape the effects of drug administration. Hence, understanding the basic mechanisms underlying HIV persistence in the body is essential in the development of new therapies that could eradicate HIV infection. Lymphoid tissues are the primary sites of HIV infection. Despite the recent progress in real-time monitoring technology, HIV infection dynamics in a whole body is unknown. Mathematical modeling and simulations provide speculations on global behavior of HIV infection in the lymphatic system. We propose a new mathematical model that describes the spread of HIV infection throughout the lymphoid tissue network. In order to represent the volume difference between lymphoid tissues, we propose the proportionality of several kinetic parameters to the lymphoid tissues' volume distribution. Under this assumption, we perform extensive numerical computations in order to simulate the spread of HIV infection in the lymphoid tissue network. Numerical computations simulate single drug treatments of an HIV infection. One of the important biological speculations derived from this study is a drug saturation effect generated by lymphoid network connection. This implies that a portion of reservoir lymphoid tissues to which drug is not sufficiently delivered would inhibit HIV eradication despite of extensive drug injection.

The role of chance in primate lentiviral infectivity: from protomer to host organism

Infection is best described as a stochastic process. Whether a host becomes infected upon exposure has a strong random element. The same applies to cells exposed to virions. In this review, we show how the mathematical formalism for stochastic processes has been used to describe and understand the infection by the Human and Simian Immunodeficiency Virus on different levels. We survey quantitative studies on the establishment of infection in the host (the organismal level) and on the infection of target cells (the cellular and molecular level). We then discuss how a synthesis of the approaches across these levels could give rise to a predictive framework for assessing the efficacy of microbicides and vaccines.

Highly diverse morbillivirus-related paramyxoviruses in wild fauna of the southwestern Indian Ocean Islands: evidence of exchange between introduced and endemic small mammals

The Paramyxoviridae form an increasingly diverse viral family, infecting a wide variety of different hosts. In recent years, they have been linked to disease emergence in many different animal populations and in humans. Bats and rodents have been identified as major animal populations capable of harboring paramyxoviruses, and host shifting between these animals is likely to be an important driving factor in the underlying evolutionary processes that eventually lead to disease emergence. Here, we have studied paramyxovirus circulation within populations of endemic and introduced wild small mammals of the southwestern Indian Ocean region and belonging to four taxonomic orders: Rodentia, Afrosoricida, Soricomorpha, and Chiroptera. We report elevated infection levels as well as widespread paramyxovirus dispersal and frequent host exchange of a newly emerging genus of the Paramyxoviridae, currently referred to as the unclassified morbillivirus-related viruses (UMRVs). In contrast to other genera of the Paramyxoviridae, where bats have been shown to be a key host species, we show that rodents (and, in particular, Rattus rattus) are significant spreaders of UMRVs. We predict that the ecological particularities of the southwestern Indian Ocean, where small mammal species often live in densely packed, multispecies communities, in combination with the increasing invasion of R. rattus and perturbations of endemic animal communities by active anthropological development, will have a major influence on the dynamics of UMRV infection.

IMPORTANCE

Identification of the infectious agents that circulate within wild animal reservoirs is essential for several reasons: (i) infectious disease outbreaks often originate from wild fauna; (ii) anthropological expansion increases the risk of contact between human and animal populations and, as a result, the risk of disease emergence; (iii) evaluation of pathogen reservoirs helps in elaborating preventive measures to limit the risk of disease emergence. Many paramyxoviruses for which bats and rodents serve as major reservoirs have demonstrated their potential to cause disease in humans and animals. In the context of the biodiversity hot spot of southwestern Indian Ocean islands and their rich endemic fauna, we show that highly diverse UMRVs exchange between various endemic animal species, and their dissemination likely is facilitated by the introduced Rattus rattus. Hence, many members of the Paramyxoviridae appear well adapted for the study of the viral phylodynamics that may be associated with disease emergence.

Multiple infections, kin selection and the evolutionary epidemiology of parasite traits

The coinfection of a host by several parasite strains is known to affect selective pressures on parasite strategies of host exploitation. I present a general model of coinfections that ties together kin selection models of virulence evolution and epidemiological models of multiple infections. I derive an analytical expression for the invasion fitness of a rare mutant in a population with an arbitrary distribution of the multiplicity of infection (MOI) across hosts. When a single mutation affects parasite strategies in all MOI classes, I show that the evolutionarily stable level of virulence depends on a demographic average of within-host relatedness across all host classes. This generalization of previous kin selection results requires that within-host parasite densities do not vary between hosts. When host exploitation strategies are allowed to vary across classes, I show that the strategy of host exploitation in a focal MOI class depends on the relative magnitudes of parasite reproductive values in the focal class and in the next. Thus, in contrast to previous findings, lower within-host relatedness in competitive parasite interactions can potentially correspond to either higher or lower levels of virulence.

Can non-lytic CD8+ T cells drive HIV-1 escape?

The CD8+ T cell effector mechanisms that mediate control of HIV-1 and SIV infections remain poorly understood. Recent work suggests that the mechanism may be primarily non-lytic. This is in apparent conflict with the observation that SIV and HIV-1 variants that escape CD8+ T cell surveillance are frequently selected. Whilst it is clear that a variant that has escaped a lytic response can have a fitness advantage compared to the wild-type, it is less obvious that this holds in the face of non-lytic control where both wild-type and variant infected cells would be affected by soluble factors. In particular, the high motility of T cells in lymphoid tissue would be expected to rapidly destroy local effects making selection of escape variants by non-lytic responses unlikely. The observation of frequent HIV-1 and SIV escape poses a number of questions. Most importantly, is the consistent observation of viral escape proof that HIV-1- and SIV-specific CD8+ T cells lyse infected cells or can this also be the result of non-lytic control? Additionally, the rate at which a variant strain escapes a lytic CD8+ T cell response is related to the strength of the response. Is the same relationship true for a non-lytic response? Finally, the potential anti-viral control mediated by non-lytic mechanisms compared to lytic mechanisms is unknown. These questions cannot be addressed with current experimental techniques nor with the standard mathematical models. Instead we have developed a 3D cellular automaton model of HIV-1 which captures spatial and temporal dynamics. The model reproduces in vivo HIV-1 dynamics at the cellular and population level. Using this model we demonstrate that non-lytic effector mechanisms can select for escape variants but that outgrowth of the variant is slower and less frequent than from a lytic response so that non-lytic responses can potentially offer more durable control.

The interplay between viruses and the immune system cannot always be studied with current experimental techniques or commonly used mathematical models. Consequently, many important questions remain unanswered. The questions we wished to address fall into this category. Recent evidence strongly suggests that CD8+ T cells control SIV, and potentially HIV-1, primarily by secreting anti-viral factors rather than by killing infected cells. However, this does not seem compatible with the common observation that HIV and SIV evolve to escape the immune response. Soluble anti-viral factors, like RANTES which protects uninfected cells from infection, would be expected to inhibit both wild-type and variant virus. Furthermore, the high speed and motility of T cells in lymphoid tissue will increase homogeneity and again decrease the likelihood that an escape variant can have a selective advantage in the face of non-lytic control. We wanted to understand whether viral escape is proof that HIV-1- and SIV-specific CD8+ T cells kill infected cells, determine the factors that facilitate viral escape, and investigate the comparative efficiency of lytic and non-lytic responses in controlling viral infections. Here we develop an elaborate but robust computational framework that captures T cell kinetics and spatial interactions in lymphoid tissue to addresses these important questions.

Evolutionary advantage via common action of recombination and neutrality

We investigate evolution models with recombination and neutrality. We consider the Crow-Kimura (parallel) mutation-selection model with the neutral fitness landscape, in which there is a central peak with high fitness A, and some of 1-point mutants have the same high fitness A, while the fitness of other sequences is 0. We find that the effect of recombination and neutrality depends on the concrete version of both neutrality and recombination. We consider three versions of neutrality: (a) all the nearest neighbor sequences of the peak sequence have the same high fitness A; (b) all the l-point mutations in a piece of genome of length l≥1 are neutral; (c) the neutral sequences are randomly distributed among the nearest neighbors of the peak sequences. We also consider three versions of recombination: (I) the simple horizontal gene transfer (HGT) of one nucleotide; (II) the exchange of a piece of genome of length l, HGT-l; (III) two-point crossover recombination (2CR). For the case of (a), the 2CR gives a rather strong contribution to the mean fitness, much stronger than that of HGT for a large genome length L. For the random distribution of neutral sequences there is a critical degree of neutrality ν(c), and for μ<μ(c) and (μ(c)-μ) is not large, the 2CR suppresses the mean fitness while HGT increases it; for ν much larger than ν(c), the 2CR and HGT-l increase the mean fitness larger than that of the HGT. We also consider the recombination in the case of smooth fitness landscapes. The recombination gives some advantage in the evolutionary dynamics, where recombination distinguishes clearly the mean-field-like evolutionary factors from the fluctuation-like ones. By contrast, mutations affect the mean-field-like and fluctuation-like factors similarly. Consequently, recombination can accelerate the non-mean-field (fluctuation) type dynamics without considerably affecting the mean-field-like factors.

HIV populations are large and accumulate high genetic diversity in a nonlinear fashion

HIV infection is characterized by rapid and error-prone viral replication resulting in genetically diverse virus populations. The rate of accumulation of diversity and the mechanisms involved are under intense study to provide useful information to understand immune evasion and the development of drug resistance. To characterize the development of viral diversity after infection, we carried out an in-depth analysis of single genome sequences of HIV pro-pol to assess diversity and divergence and to estimate replicating population sizes in a group of treatment-naive HIV-infected individuals sampled at single (n = 22) or multiple, longitudinal (n = 11) time points. Analysis of single genome sequences revealed nonlinear accumulation of sequence diversity during the course of infection. Diversity accumulated in recently infected individuals at rates 30-fold higher than in patients with chronic infection. Accumulation of synonymous changes accounted for most of the diversity during chronic infection. Accumulation of diversity resulted in population shifts, but the rates of change were low relative to estimated replication cycle times, consistent with relatively large population sizes. Analysis of changes in allele frequencies revealed effective population sizes that are substantially higher than previous estimates of approximately 1,000 infectious particles/infected individual. Taken together, these observations indicate that HIV populations are large, diverse, and slow to change in chronic infection and that the emergence of new mutations, including drug resistance mutations, is governed by both selection forces and drift.

The role of environmental factors on the evolution of phenotypic diversity in vesicular stomatitis virus populations

Virus adaptation to an ever-changing environment requires the availability of variants with phenotypes that can fulfil new requirements for replication. High mutation rates result in the generation of these variants. The factors that contribute to the maintenance or elimination of this diversity, however, are not fully understood. This study used a collection of vesicular stomatitis virus strains generated under different conditions to measure the extent of variation within each population, and tested the effects of several environmental factors on diversity. It was found that the host-cell type used for selection sometimes had an effect on the extent of variation and that there may be different levels of variation over time. Persistent infections promoted higher levels of diversity than acute infections, presumably due to complementation. In contrast, environmental heterogeneity, host breadth and the cell type used for testing (as opposed to the cell type used for selection) did not seem to have an effect on the amount of phenotypic diversity observed.

Design requirements for interfering particles to maintain coadaptive stability with HIV-1

Defective interfering particles (DIPs) are viral deletion mutants lacking essential transacting or packaging elements and must be complemented by wild-type virus to propagate. DIPs transmit through human populations, replicating at the expense of the wild-type virus and acting as molecular parasites of viruses. Consequently, engineered DIPs have been proposed as therapies for a number of diseases, including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). However, it is not clear if DIP-based therapies would face evolutionary blocks given the high mutation rates and high within-host diversity of lentiviruses. Divergent evolution of HIV and DIPs appears likely since natural DIPs have not been detected for lentiviruses, despite extensive sequencing of HIVs and simian immunodeficiency viruses (SIVs). Here, we tested if the apparent lack of lentiviral DIPs is due to natural selection and analyzed which molecular characteristics a DIP or DIP-based therapy would need to maintain coadaptive stability with HIV-1. Using a well-established mathematical model of HIV-1 in a host extended to include its replication in a single cell and interference from DIP, we calculated evolutionary selection coefficients. The analysis predicts that interference by codimerization between DIPs and HIV-1 genomes is evolutionarily unstable, indicating that recombination between DIPs and HIV-1 would be selected against. In contrast, DIPs that interfere via competition for capsids have the potential to be evolutionarily stable if the capsid-to-genome production ratio of HIV-1 is >1. Thus, HIV-1 variants that attempt to "starve" DIPs to escape interference would be selected against. In summary, the analysis suggests specific experimental measurements that could address the apparent lack of naturally occurring lentiviral DIPs and specifies how therapeutic approaches based on engineered DIPs could be evolutionarily robust and avoid recombination.

A machine learning approach for identifying amino acid signatures in the HIV env gene predictive of dementia

The identification of nucleotide sequence variations in viral pathogens linked to disease and clinical outcomes is important for developing vaccines and therapies. However, identifying these genetic variations in rapidly evolving pathogens adapting to selection pressures unique to each host presents several challenges. Machine learning tools provide new opportunities to address these challenges. In HIV infection, virus replicating within the brain causes HIV-associated dementia (HAD) and milder forms of neurocognitive impairment in 20-30% of patients with unsuppressed viremia. HIV neurotropism is primarily determined by the viral envelope (env) gene. To identify amino acid signatures in the HIV env gene predictive of HAD, we developed a machine learning pipeline using the PART rule-learning algorithm and C4.5 decision tree inducer to train a classifier on a meta-dataset (n = 860 env sequences from 78 patients: 40 HAD, 38 non-HAD). To increase the flexibility and biological relevance of our analysis, we included 4 numeric factors describing amino acid hydrophobicity, polarity, bulkiness, and charge, in addition to amino acid identities. The classifier had 75% predictive accuracy in leave-one-out cross-validation, and identified 5 signatures associated with HAD diagnosis (p<0.05, Fisher's exact test). These HAD signatures were found in the majority of brain sequences from 8 of 10 HAD patients from an independent cohort. Additionally, 2 HAD signatures were validated against env sequences from CSF of a second independent cohort. This analysis provides insight into viral genetic determinants associated with HAD, and develops novel methods for applying machine learning tools to analyze the genetics of rapidly evolving pathogens.

Modelling the course of an HIV infection: insights from ecology and evolution

The Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) is one of the most threatening viral agents. This virus infects approximately 33 million people, many of whom are unaware of their status because, except for flu-like symptoms right at the beginning of the infection during the acute phase, the disease progresses more or less symptom-free for 5 to 10 years. During this asymptomatic phase, the virus slowly destroys the immune system until the onset of AIDS when opportunistic infections like pneumonia or Kaposi’s sarcoma can overcome immune defenses. Mathematical models have played a decisive role in estimating important parameters (e.g., virion clearance rate or life-span of infected cells). However, most models only account for the acute and asymptomatic latency phase and cannot explain the progression to AIDS. Models that account for the whole course of the infection rely on different hypotheses to explain the progression to AIDS. The aim of this study is to review these models, present their technical approaches and discuss the robustness of their biological hypotheses. Among the few models capturing all three phases of an HIV infection, we can distinguish between those that mainly rely on population dynamics and those that involve virus evolution. Overall, the modeling quest to capture the dynamics of an HIV infection has improved our understanding of the progression to AIDS but, more generally, it has also led to the insight that population dynamics and evolutionary processes can be necessary to explain the course of an infection.

Evolutionary dynamics of genome segmentation in multipartite viruses

Multipartite viruses are formed by a variable number of genomic fragments packed in independent viral capsids. This fact poses stringent conditions on their transmission mode, demanding, in particular, a high multiplicity of infection (MOI) for successful propagation. The actual advantages of the multipartite viral strategy are as yet unclear. The origin of multipartite viruses represents an evolutionary puzzle. While classical theories suggested that a faster replication rate or higher replication fidelity would favour shorter segments, recent experimental results seem to point to an increased stability of virions with incomplete genomes as a factor able to compensate for the disadvantage of mandatory complementation. Using as main parameters differential stability as a function of genome length and MOI, we calculate the conditions under which a set of complementary segments of a viral genome would outcompete the non-segmented variant. Further, we examine the likeliness that multipartite viral forms could be the evolutionary outcome of the competition among the defective genomes of different lengths that spontaneously arise under replication of a complete, wild-type genome. We conclude that only multipartite viruses with a small number of segments could be produced in our scenario, and discuss alternative hypotheses for the origin of multipartite viruses with more than four segments.

Stochastic simulations suggest that HIV-1 survives close to its error threshold

The use of mutagenic drugs to drive HIV-1 past its error threshold presents a novel intervention strategy, as suggested by the quasispecies theory, that may be less susceptible to failure via viral mutation-induced emergence of drug resistance than current strategies. The error threshold of HIV-1, , however, is not known. Application of the quasispecies theory to determine poses significant challenges: Whereas the quasispecies theory considers the asexual reproduction of an infinitely large population of haploid individuals, HIV-1 is diploid, undergoes recombination, and is estimated to have a small effective population size in vivo. We performed population genetics-based stochastic simulations of the within-host evolution of HIV-1 and estimated the structure of the HIV-1 quasispecies and . We found that with small mutation rates, the quasispecies was dominated by genomes with few mutations. Upon increasing the mutation rate, a sharp error catastrophe occurred where the quasispecies became delocalized in sequence space. Using parameter values that quantitatively captured data of viral diversification in HIV-1 patients, we estimated to be substitutions/site/replication, ∼2–6 fold higher than the natural mutation rate of HIV-1, suggesting that HIV-1 survives close to its error threshold and may be readily susceptible to mutagenic drugs. The latter estimate was weakly dependent on the within-host effective population size of HIV-1. With large population sizes and in the absence of recombination, our simulations converged to the quasispecies theory, bridging the gap between quasispecies theory and population genetics-based approaches to describing HIV-1 evolution. Further, increased with the recombination rate, rendering HIV-1 less susceptible to error catastrophe, thus elucidating an added benefit of recombination to HIV-1. Our estimate of may serve as a quantitative guideline for the use of mutagenic drugs against HIV-1.

Currently available antiretroviral drugs curtail HIV infection but fail to eradicate the virus. A strategy of intervention radically different from that employed by current drugs has been proposed by the molecular quasispecies theory. The theory predicts that increasing the viral mutation rate beyond a critical value, called the error threshold, would cause a severe loss of genetic information, potentially leading to viral clearance. Several chemical mutagens are now being developed that can increase the mutation rate of HIV-1. Their success depends on reliable estimates of the error threshold of HIV-1, which are currently lacking. The quasispecies theory cannot be applied directly to HIV-1: the theory considers an infinitely large population of asexually reproducing haploid individuals, whereas HIV-1 is diploid, undergoes recombination, and is estimated to have a small effective population size in vivo. We employed detailed stochastic simulations that overcome the limitations of the quasispecies theory and accurately mimic HIV-1 evolution in vivo. With these simulations, we estimated the error threshold of HIV-1 to be ∼2–6-fold higher than its natural mutation rate, suggesting that HIV-1 survives close to its error threshold and may be readily susceptible to mutagenic drugs.

Impaired immune evasion in HIV through intracellular delays and multiple infection of cells

With its high mutation rate, HIV is capable of escape from recognition, suppression and/or killing by CD8(+) cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs). The rate at which escape variants replace each other can give insights into the selective pressure imposed by single CTL clones. We investigate the effects of specific characteristics of the HIV life cycle on the dynamics of immune escape. First, it has been found that cells in HIV-infected patients can carry multiple copies of proviruses. To investigate how this process affects the emergence of immune escape, we develop a mathematical model of HIV dynamics with multiple infections of cells. Increasing the frequency of multiple-infected cells delays the appearance of immune escape variants, slows down the rate at which they replace the wild-type variant and can even prevent escape variants from taking over the quasi-species. Second, we study the effect of the intracellular eclipse phase on the rate of escape and show that escape rates are expected to be slower than previously anticipated. In summary, slow escape rates do not necessarily imply inefficient CTL-mediated killing of HIV-infected cells, but are at least partly a result of the specific characteristics of the viral life cycle.

Linking metacommunity theory and symbiont evolutionary ecology

Processes that occur both within and between hosts can influence the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of symbionts, a broad term that includes parasitic and disease-causing organisms. Metacommunity theory can integrate these local- and regional-scale dynamics to explore symbiont community composition patterns across space. In this article I emphasize that symbionts should be incorporated into the metacommunity concept. I highlight the utility of metacommunity theory by discussing practical and general benefits that emerge from considering symbionts in a metacommunity framework. Specifically, investigating the local and regional drivers of symbiont community and metacommunity structure will lead to a more holistic understanding of symbiont ecology and evolution and could reveal novel insights into the roles of symbiont communities in mediating host health.

Daily sampling of an HIV-1 patient with slowly progressing disease displays persistence of multiple env subpopulations consistent with neutrality

The molecular evolution of HIV-1 is characterized by frequent substitutions, indels and recombination events. In addition, a HIV-1 population may adapt through frequency changes of its variants. To reveal such population dynamics we analyzed HIV-1 subpopulation frequencies in an untreated patient with stable, low plasma HIV-1 RNA levels and close to normal CD4+ T-cell levels. The patient was intensively sampled during a 32-day period as well as approximately 1.5 years before and after this period (days −664, 1, 2, 3, 11, 18, 25, 32 and 522). 77 sequences of HIV-1 env (approximately 3100 nucleotides) were obtained from plasma by limiting dilution with 7–11 sequences per time point, except day −664. Phylogenetic analysis using maximum likelihood methods showed that the sequences clustered in six distinct subpopulations. We devised a method that took into account the relatively coarse sampling of the population. Data from days 1 through 32 were consistent with constant within-patient subpopulation frequencies. However, over longer time periods, i.e. between days 1…32 and 522, there were significant changes in subpopulation frequencies, which were consistent with evolutionarily neutral fluctuations. We found no clear signal of natural selection within the subpopulations over the study period, but positive selection was evident on the long branches that connected the subpopulations, which corresponds to >3 years as the subpopulations already were established when we started the study. Thus, selective forces may have been involved when the subpopulations were established. Genetic drift within subpopulations caused by de novo substitutions could be resolved after approximately one month. Overall, we conclude that subpopulation frequencies within this patient changed significantly over a time period of 1.5 years, but that this does not imply directional or balancing selection. We show that the short-term evolution we study here is likely representative for many patients of slow and normal disease progression.

Estimate of effective recombination rate and average selection coefficient for HIV in chronic infection

HIV adaptation to a host in chronic infection is simulated by means of a Monte-Carlo algorithm that includes the evolutionary factors of mutation, positive selection with varying strength among sites, random genetic drift, linkage, and recombination. By comparing two sensitive measures of linkage disequilibrium (LD) and the number of diverse sites measured in simulation to patient data from one-time samples of pol gene obtained by single-genome sequencing from representative untreated patients, we estimate the effective recombination rate and the average selection coefficient to be on the order of 1% per genome per generation (10(-5) per base per generation) and 0.5%, respectively. The adaptation rate is twofold higher and fourfold lower than predicted in the absence of recombination and in the limit of very frequent recombination, respectively. The level of LD and the number of diverse sites observed in data also range between the values predicted in simulation for these two limiting cases. These results demonstrate the critical importance of finite population size, linkage, and recombination in HIV evolution.

Carbohydrate targets in HIV vaccine research: lessons from failures

Learning from the successes of other vaccines that enhance natural and existing protective responses to pathogens, the current effort in HIV vaccine research is directed toward inducing cytotoxic responses. Nevertheless, antibodies are fundamental players in vaccine development and are still considered in the context of passive specific immunotherapy of HIV, especially since several broadly neutralizing monoclonals are available. Special interest is directed toward antibodies binding to the glycan array on gp120 since they have the potential of broader reactivity and cross-clade neutralizing capacity. Humoral responses to carbohydrate antigens have proven effective against other pathogens, why not HIV? The variability of the epitope targets on HIV may not be the only problem to developing active or passive immunotherapeutic strategies. The dynamics of the infected immune system leads to ambiguous effects of most of the effector mechanisms calling for new approaches; some may already be available, while others are in the making.

Taking multiple infections of cells and recombination into account leads to small within-host effective-population-size estimates of HIV-1

Whether HIV-1 evolution in infected individuals is dominated by deterministic or stochastic effects remains unclear because current estimates of the effective population size of HIV-1 in vivo, N(e), are widely varying. Models assuming HIV-1 evolution to be neutral estimate N(e)~10²-10⁴, smaller than the inverse mutation rate of HIV-1 (~10⁵), implying the predominance of stochastic forces. In contrast, a model that includes selection estimates N(e)>10⁵, suggesting that deterministic forces would hold sway. The consequent uncertainty in the nature of HIV-1 evolution compromises our ability to describe disease progression and outcomes of therapy. We perform detailed bit-string simulations of viral evolution that consider large genome lengths and incorporate the key evolutionary processes underlying the genomic diversification of HIV-1 in infected individuals, namely, mutation, multiple infections of cells, recombination, selection, and epistatic interactions between multiple loci. Our simulations describe quantitatively the evolution of HIV-1 diversity and divergence in patients. From comparisons of our simulations with patient data, we estimate N(e)~10³-10⁴, implying predominantly stochastic evolution. Interestingly, we find that N(e) and the viral generation time are correlated with the disease progression time, presenting a route to a priori prediction of disease progression in patients. Further, we show that the previous estimate of N(e)>10⁵ reduces as the frequencies of multiple infections of cells and recombination assumed increase. Our simulations with N(e)~10³-10⁴ may be employed to estimate markers of disease progression and outcomes of therapy that depend on the evolution of viral diversity and divergence.

HIVBrainSeqDB: a database of annotated HIV envelope sequences from brain and other anatomical sites

Background

The population of HIV replicating within a host consists of independently evolving and interacting sub-populations that can be genetically distinct within anatomical compartments. HIV replicating within the brain causes neurocognitive disorders in up to 20-30% of infected individuals and is a viral sanctuary site for the development of drug resistance. The primary determinant of HIV neurotropism is macrophage tropism, which is primarily determined by the viral envelope (env) gene. However, studies of genetic aspects of HIV replicating in the brain are hindered because existing repositories of HIV sequences are not focused on neurotropic virus nor annotated with neurocognitive and neuropathological status. To address this need, we constructed the HIV Brain Sequence Database.

Results

The HIV Brain Sequence Database is a public database of HIV envelope sequences, directly sequenced from brain and other tissues from the same patients. Sequences are annotated with clinical data including viral load, CD4 count, antiretroviral status, neurocognitive impairment, and neuropathological diagnosis, all curated from the original publication. Tissue source is coded using an anatomical ontology, the Foundational Model of Anatomy, to capture the maximum level of detail available, while maintaining ontological relationships between tissues and their subparts. 44 tissue types are represented within the database, grouped into 4 categories: (i) brain, brainstem, and spinal cord; (ii) meninges, choroid plexus, and CSF; (iii) blood and lymphoid; and (iv) other (bone marrow, colon, lung, liver, etc). Patient coding is correlated across studies, allowing sequences from the same patient to be grouped to increase statistical power. Using Cytoscape, we visualized relationships between studies, patients and sequences, illustrating interconnections between studies and the varying depth of sequencing, patient number, and tissue representation across studies. Currently, the database contains 2517 envelope sequences from 90 patients, obtained from 22 published studies. 1272 sequences are from brain; the remaining 1245 are from blood, lymph node, spleen, bone marrow, colon, lung and other non-brain tissues. The database interface utilizes a faceted interface, allowing real-time combination of multiple search parameters to assemble a meta-dataset, which can be downloaded for further analysis.

Conclusions

This online resource, which is publicly available at http://www.HIVBrainSeqDB.org, will greatly facilitate analysis of the genetic aspects of HIV macrophage tropism, HIV compartmentalization and evolution within the brain and other tissue reservoirs, and the relationship of these findings to HIV-associated neurological disorders and other clinical consequences of HIV infection.

Profound differences in virus population genetics correspond to protection from CD4 decline resulting from feline lentivirus coinfection

CD4 decline is a hallmark of disease onset in individuals infected with Feline Immunodeficiency Virus (FIV) or Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1). Cats that are infected with a poorly replicating, apathogenic FIV (PLV) prior to exposure to a virulent FIV strain (FIVC) maintain CD4 numbers by mechanisms that are not correlated with a measurable adaptive immune response or reduction in circulating viral load. We employed population genetic approaches based on the 3′ portion of the viral genome to estimate the population structure of FIVC from single and dual infected cats. In dual infected cats, FIVC effective population size was decreased during the initial viral expansion phase, and after three weeks of infection, the population declined sharply. The FIVC population recovered to pre-bottleneck levels approximately seven weeks post-FIVC infection. However, the population emerging from the bottleneck in dual infected cats was distinct based on estimates of temporal population structure and substitution profiles. The transition to transversion rate ratio (κ) increased from early to late phases in dual infected cats due primarily to a decrease in transversions whereas in single infected cats, κ declined over time. Although one clone with extensive G to A substitutions, indicative of host cytidine deaminase editing, was recovered from a dual infected cat during the bottleneck, the post bottleneck population had an overall reduction in G to A substitutions. These data are consistent with a model of PLV-induced host restriction, putatively involving host DNA editing, that alters the dynamics of FIVC throughout the course of infection leading to disease attenuation.

Epidemiological and clinical consequences of within-host evolution

Many viruses and bacteria are known to evolve rapidly over the course of an infection. However, epidemiological studies generally assume that within-host evolution is an instantaneous process. We argue that the dynamics of within-host evolution has implications at the within-host and at the between-host levels. We first show that epidemiologists should consider within-host evolution, notably because it affects the genotype of the pathogen that is transmitted. We then present studies that investigate evolution at the within-host level and examine the extent to which these studies can help to understand infection traits involved in the epidemiology (e.g. transmission rate, virulence, recovery rate). Finally, we discuss how new techniques for data acquisition can open new perspectives for empirical and theoretical research.

Higher levels of Zidovudine resistant HIV in the colon compared to blood and other gastrointestinal compartments in HIV infection

Background

The gut-associated lymphoid tissue (GALT) is the largest lymphoid organ infected by human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1). It serves as a viral reservoir and host-pathogen interface in infection. This study examined whether different parts of the gut and peripheral blood lymphocytes (PBL) contain different drug-resistant HIV-1 variants.

Methods

Gut biopsies (esophagus, stomach, duodenum and colon) and PBL were obtained from 8 HIV-1 infected preHAART (highly active antiretroviral therapy) patients at three visits over 18 months. Patients received AZT, ddI or combinations of AZT/ddI. HIV-1 Reverse transcriptase (RT)-coding sequences were amplified from viral DNA obtained from gut tissues and PBL, using nested PCR. The PCR fragments were cloned and sequenced. The resulting sequences were subjected to phylogenetic analyses, and antiretroviral drug mutations were identified.

Results

Phylogenetic and drug mutation analyses revealed differential distribution of drug resistant mutations in the gut within patients. The level of drug-resistance conferred by the RT sequences was significantly different between different gut tissues and PBL, and varied with antiretroviral therapy. The sequences conferring the highest level of drug-resistance to AZT were found in the colon.

Conclusion

This study confirms that different drug-resistant HIV-1 variants are present in different gut tissues, and it is the first report to document that particular gut tissues may select for drug resistant HIV-1 variants.

Effect of different modes of viral spread on the dynamics of multiply infected cells in human immunodeficiency virus infection

Infection of individual cells with more than one HIV particle is an important feature of HIV replication, which may contribute to HIV pathogenesis via the occurrence of recombination, viral complementation and other outcomes that influence HIV replication and evolutionary dynamics. A previous mathematical model of co-infection has shown that the number of cells infected with i viruses correlates with the ith power of the singly infected cell population, and this has partly been observed in experiments. This model, however, assumed that virus spread from cell to cell occurs only via free virus particles, and that viruses and cells mix perfectly. Here, we introduce a cellular automaton model that takes into account different modes of virus spread among cells, including cell to cell transmission via the virological synapse, and spatially constrained virus spread. In these scenarios, it is found that the number of multiply infected cells correlates linearly with the number of singly infected cells, meaning that co-infection plays a greater role at lower virus loads. The model further indicates that current experimental systems that are used to study co-infection dynamics fail to reflect the true dynamics of multiply infected cells under these specific assumptions, and that new experimental techniques need to be designed to distinguish between the different assumptions.