Realized niche shift during a global biological invasion

Forecasting habitat suitability and niche shifts of two global maize pests: Ostrinia furnacalis and Ostrinia nubilalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae)

BACKGROUND

Ostrinia furnacalis (ACB) and Ostrinia nubilalis (ECB) are devastating pests of the agricultural crop maize worldwide. However, little is known about their potential distribution and niche shifts during their global invasion. Since long-term selection to past climate variability has shaped their historical niche breadth, such niche shifts may provide an alternative basis for understanding their responses to present and future climate change. By integrating the niche unfilling, stability, and expansion situations into a single framework, our study quantifies the patterns of niche shift in the spatial distribution of these two pests during the different periods.

RESULTS

Our results show that the overall suitable habitats of ACB and ECB in the future decrease but highly and extremely suitable habitat will become more widespread, suggesting these two insects may occur more frequently in specific regions. Compared with Southeast Asia and Australia, the ACB niche in China exhibited expansion rather than unfilling. For ECB, initial niches have a tendency to be retained in Eurasia despite there also being potential for expansion in North America. The niche equivalency and similarity test results further indicate that niche shifts were common for both ACB and ECB in different survival regions during their colonization of new habitat and their suitable habitat changes during the paleoclimate were associated with climatic changes.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings improve our understanding of the ecological characteristics of ACB and ECB worldwide, and will be useful in the development of prevention and control strategies for two insect pests worldwide. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

Transferability of ecological forecasting models to novel biotic conditions in a long-term experimental study

Ecological forecasting models play an increasingly important role for managing natural resources and assessing our fundamental knowledge of processes driving ecological dynamics. As global environmental change pushes ecosystems beyond their historical conditions, the utility of these models may depend on their transferability to novel conditions. Because species interactions can alter resource use, timing of reproduction, and other aspects of a species' realized niche, changes in biotic conditions, which can arise from community reorganization events in response to environmental change, have the potential to impact model transferability. Using a long-term experiment on desert rodents, we assessed model transferability under novel biotic conditions to better understand the limitations of ecological forecasting. We show that ecological forecasts can be less accurate when the models generating them are transferred to novel biotic conditions and that the extent of model transferability can depend on the species being forecast. We also demonstrate the importance of incorporating uncertainty into forecast evaluation with transferred models generating less accurate and more uncertain forecasts. These results suggest that how a species perceives its competitive landscape can influence model transferability and that when uncertainties are properly accounted for, transferred models may still be appropriate for decision making. Assessing the extent of the transferability of forecasting models is a crucial step to increase our understanding of the limitations of ecological forecasts.

Active remote sensing data and dispersal processes improve predictions for an invasive aquatic plant during a climatic extreme in Great Lakes coastal wetlands

Invasive aquatic plants pose a significant threat to coastal wetlands. Predicting suitable habitat for invasive aquatic plants in uninvaded yet vulnerable wetlands remains a critical task to prevent further harm to these ecosystems. The integration of remote sensing and geospatial data into species distribution models (SDMs) can help predict where new invasions are likely to occur by generating spatial outputs of habitat suitability. The objective of this study was to assess the efficacy of utilizing active remote sensing datasets (synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) with multispectral imagery and other geospatial data in predicting the potential distribution of an invasive aquatic plant based on its biophysical habitat requirements and dispersal dynamics. We also considered a climatic extreme (lake water levels) during the study period to investigate how these predictions may change between years. We compiled a time series of 1628 field records on the occurrence of Hydrocharis morsus-ranae (European frogbit; EFB) with nine remote sensing and geospatial layers as predictors to train and assess the predictive capacity of random forest models to generate habitat suitability in Great Lakes coastal wetlands in northern Michigan, USA. We found that SAR and LiDAR data were useful as proxies for key biophysical characteristics of EFB habitat (emergent vegetation and water depth), and that a vegetation index calculated from spectral imagery was one of the most important predictors of EFB occurrence. Our SDM using all predictors yielded the highest mean overall accuracy of 88.3% and a true skill statistic of 75.7%. Two of the most important predictors of EFB occurrence were dispersal-related: 1) distance to the nearest known EFB population (m), and 2) distance to nearest public boat launch (m). The area of highly suitable habitat (pixels assigned ≥0.8 probability) was 74% larger during a climatically extreme high water-level year compared to an average year. Our findings demonstrate that active remote sensing can be integrated into SDM workflows as proxies for important drivers of invasive species expansion that are difficult to measure in other ways. Moreover, the importance of a proxy variable for endogenous dispersal (distance to nearest known population) in these SDMs indicates that EFB is currently spreading, and thereby less influenced by within-site dynamics such as interspecific competition. Lastly, we found that extreme climatic conditions can dramatically change this species' niche, and therefore we recommend that future studies include dynamic climate conditions in SDMs to more accurately forecast the spread during early invasion stages.

A Phylogenetic Model of Established and Enabled Biome Shifts

Where each species actually lives is distinct from where it could potentially survive and persist. This suggests that it may be important to distinguish established from enabled biome affinities when considering how ancestral species moved and evolved among major habitat types. We introduce a new phylogenetic method, called RFBS, to model how anagenetic and cladogenetic events cause established and enabled biome affinities (or, more generally, other discrete realized versus fundamental niche states) to shift over evolutionary timescale. We provide practical guidelines for how to assign established and enabled biome affinity states to extant taxa, using the flowering plant clade Viburnum as a case study. Through a battery of simulation experiments, we show that RFBS performs well, even when we have realistically imperfect knowledge of enabled biome affinities for most analyzed species. We also show that RFBS reliably discerns established from enabled affinities, with similar accuracy to standard competing models that ignore the existence of enabled biome affinities. Lastly, we apply RFBS to Viburnum to infer ancestral biomes throughout the tree and to highlight instances where repeated shifts between established affinities for warm and cold temperate forest biomes were enabled by a stable and slowly-evolving enabled affinity for both temperate biomes.

The interplay between abiotic and biotic factors in dispersal decisions in metacommunities

Suitable conditions for species to survive and reproduce constitute their ecological niche, which is built by abiotic conditions and interactions with conspecifics and heterospecifics. Organisms should ideally assess and use information about all these environmental dimensions to adjust their dispersal decisions depending on their own internal conditions. Dispersal plasticity is often considered through its dependence on abiotic conditions or conspecific density and, to a lesser extent, with reference to the effects of interactions with heterospecifics, potentially leading to misinterpretation of dispersal drivers. Here, we first review the evidence for the effects of and the potential interplays between abiotic factors, biotic interactions with conspecifics and heterospecifics and phenotype on dispersal decisions. We then present an experimental test of these potential interplays, investigating the effects of density and interactions with conspecifics and heterospecifics on temperature-dependent dispersal in microcosms of Tetrahymena ciliates. We found significant differences in dispersal rates depending on the temperature, density and presence of another strain or species. However, the presence and density of conspecifics and heterospecifics had no effects on the thermal-dependency of dispersal. We discuss the causes and consequences of the (lack of) interplay between the different environmental dimensions and the phenotype for metacommunity assembly and dynamics. This article is part of the theme issue 'Diversity-dependence of dispersal: interspecific interactions determine spatial dynamics'.

Femoral bone structure and mechanics at the edge and core of an expanding population of the invasive frog Xenopus laevis

Understanding how living tissues respond to changes in their mechanical environment is a key question in evolutionary biology. Invasive species provide an ideal model for this as they are often transplanted between environments that differ drastically in their ecological and environmental context. Spatial sorting, the name given to the phenomenon driving differences between individuals at the core and edge of an expanding range, has been demonstrated to impact the morphology and physiology of Xenopus laevis from the invasive French population. Here, we combined a structural analysis using micro-CT scanning and a functional analysis by testing the mechanical properties of the femur to test whether the increased dispersal at the range edge drives differences in bone morphology and function. Our results show significant differences in the inner structure of the femur as well as bone material properties, with frogs from the centre of the range having more robust and resistant bones. This is suggestive of an energy allocation trade-off between locomotion and investment in bone formation, or alternatively, may point to selection for fast locomotion at the range edge. Overall, our results provide insights on the growth of the long bones and the formation of trabecular bone in frogs.

Exploring the impact of temporal resolution on detecting shifts in the invasive species niche: Insights from Lessepsian fishes

In this study, we estimate the niche overlap between native and invaded ranges of 36 Lessepsian fish, focusing on how this estimate might vary in relation to the temporal resolution of sea surface temperature and salinity, which are the main niche axes determining their distribution. Specifically, we wanted to address the following questions: (i) Does the choice of temporal averaging method of variables influence the estimation of niche overlap for individual variables? (ii) Does this temporal resolution effect persist when conducting bivariate niche estimations? Niches overlap was estimated by calculating two indices and these analyses were repeated at two temporal resolutions, matching observations to the classic 'multidecadal' average of environmental conditions and to the corresponding annual average of records. Results are compared with verify whether differences can be detected in the magnitude of niche commonality measured at annual or multidecadal temporal resolution. The findings show that the temporal resolution of the data significantly influences estimates of overlap in the thermal niche. Specifically, our analysis indicates a considerable disparity between native and invasive niche regions for most species, particularly when evaluated over multidecadal periods compared with matching occurrence data to the annual mean values of years the occurrence was observed, that is matching occurrence data to a common average of 'present' conditions or to the annual mean values of years of observation. In particular, the largest overlaps between native and invaded niches occur along the salinity axis, regardless of temporal resolution. When considering both temperature and salinity together, the results remain unaffected by the temporal resolution of the environmental data. Almost 30% of the species show a different niche in their introduced range, and for the other species, the overlap between native and invaded ranges was reduced with respect to the univariate analyses.

Big-brained alien birds tend to occur climatic niche shifts through enhanced behavioral innovation

Identifying climatic niche shift and its influencing factors is of great significance in predicting the risk of alien species invasions accurately. Previous studies have attempted to identify the factors related to the niche shift of alien species in their invaded ranges, including changes in introduction history, selection of exact climate predictors, and anthropogenic factors. However, the effect of species-level traits on niche shift remains largely unexplored, especially those reflecting the species' adaptation ability to new environments. Based on the occurrence data of 117 successful alien bird invaders at a global scale, their native and invaded climatic niches were compared, and the potential influencing factors were identified. Our results show the niche overlap was low, with more than 75% of the non-native birds representing climatic niche shift (i.e. >10% niche expansion). In addition, 85% of the species showed a large proportion (mean ± SD, 39% ± 21%) of niche unfilling. Relative brain size (RBS) after accounting for body size had no direct effect on niche shift, but path analysis showed that RBS had an indirect effect on niche shift by acting on behavioral innovation primarily on technical innovation rather than consumer innovation. These findings suggested the incorporation of species' important behavioral adaptation traits may be promising to develop future prediction frameworks of biological invasion risk in response to the continued global change.

Identifying Areas of Invasion Risk and Changes in the Ecological Niche Occupied by the Coffee Leaf Miner Leucoptera coffeella (Lepidoptera: Lyonetiidae)

Insects of economic importance such as Leucoptera coffeella can cause high defoliation in plants and reduce crop yields. We aimed to identify changes in the ecological niche and potential zones of the invasion. Occurrence records were obtained from databases and bibliography. WorldClim V2.0 bioclimatic layers were used. For the modeling of the potential distribution, the kuenm R package was used by executing the Maxent algorithm. The potential distribution models suggested greatest environmental suitability extends from Europe, South Asia, and Central and South Africa, showing the "tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests" as the ecoregion that presents the greatest probability of the presence of L. coffeella. The potential distribution model projected in the invaded area agrees with the known distribution in the region (America), although the results show that it is occupying environmental spaces not present in the area of origin. This species presented a large proportion of the invaded niche that overlaps the native niche and is colonizing new environmental conditions in the invaded area relative to its native distribution (Africa). This information could be used in the planning of coffee crops on the American continent.

Global drivers of the conservation-invasion paradox

The conservation-invasion paradox (CIP) refers to a long-term phenomenon wherein species threatened in their native range can sustain viable populations when introduced to other regions. Understanding the drivers of CIP is helpful for conserving threatened species and managing invasive species, which is unfortunately still lacking. We compiled a global data set of 1071 introduction events, including 960 CIP events (successful establishment of threatened species outside its native range) and 111 non-CIP events (unsuccessful establishment of threatened species outside its native range after introduction), involving 174 terrestrial vertebrates. We then tested the relative importance of various predictors at the location, event, and species levels with generalized linear mixed models and model averaging. Successful CIP events occurred across taxonomic groups and biogeographic realms, especially for the mammal group in the Palearctic and Australia. Locations of successful CIP events had fewer native threat factors, especially less climate warming in invaded regions. The probability of a successful CIP event was highest when species introduction efforts were great and there were more local congeners and fewer natural enemies. These results can inform threatened species ex situ conservation and non-native invasive species mitigation.

Geographical distribution and ecological niche dynamics of Crassostrea sikamea (Amemiya, 1928) in China's coastal regions under climate change

Global climate change drives species redistribution, threatening biodiversity and ecosystem heterogeneity. The Kumamoto oyster, Crassostrea sikamea (Amemiya, 1928), one of the most promising aquaculture species because of its delayed reproductive timing, was once prevalent in southern China. In this study, an ensemble species distribution model was employed to analyze the distribution range shift and ecological niche dynamics of C. sikamea along China's coastline under the current and future climate scenarios (RCP 2.6-8.5 covering 2050 s and 2100 s). The model results indicated that the current habitat distribution for C. sikamea consists of a continuous stretch extending from the coastlines of Hainan Province to the northern shores of Jiangsu Province. By the 2050 s, the distribution range will stabilize at its southern end along the coast of Hainan Province, while expanding northward to cover the coastal areas of Shandong Province, showing a more dramatic trend of contraction in the south and invasion in the north by the 2100 s. In RCP8.5, the southern end retracts to the coasts of Guangdong, whereas the northern end covers all of China's coastal areas north of 34°N. C. sikamea can maintain relatively stable ecological niche characteristics, while it may occupy different ecological niche spaces under future climate conditions. Significant niche expansion will occur in lower temperature. We concluded C. sikamea habitats are susceptible to climate change. The rapid northward expansion of C. sikamea may open new possibilities for oyster farming in China, but it will also have important consequences for the ecological balance and biodiversity of receiving areas. It's imperative that we closely examine and strategize to address these repercussions for a win-win situation.

The cumulative niche approach: A framework to assess the performance of ecological niche model projections

Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are often used to project species distributions within alien ranges and in future climatic scenarios. However, ENMs depend on species-environment equilibrium, which may be absent for actively expanding species. We present a novel framework to estimate whether species have reached environmental equilibrium in their native and alien ranges. The method is based on the estimation of niche breadth with the accumulation of species occurrences. An asymptote will indicate exhaustive knowledge of the realised niches. We demonstrate the CNA framework for 26 species of mammals, amphibians, and birds. Possible outcomes of the framework include: (1) There is enough data to quantify the native and alien realised niches, allowing us to calculate niche expansion between the native and alien ranges, also indicating that ENMs can be reliably projected to new environmental conditions. (2) The data in the native range is not adequate but an asymptote is reached in the alien realised niche, indicating low confidence in our ability to evaluate niche expansion in the alien range but high confidence in model projections to new environmental conditions within the alien range. (3) There is enough data to quantify the native realised niche, but not enough knowledge about the alien realised niche, hindering the reliability of projections beyond sampled conditions. (4) Both the native and alien ranges do not reach an asymptote, and thus few robust conclusions about the species' niche or future projections can be made. Our framework can be used to detect species' environmental equilibrium in both the native and alien ranges, to quantify changes in the realised niche during the invasion processes, and to estimate the likely accuracy of model projections to new environmental conditions.

A simulation study evaluating how population survival and genetic diversity in a newly established population can be affected by propagule size, extinction rates, and initial heterozygosity

The introduction and establishment of invasive species in regions outside their native range, is one of the major threats for the conservation of ecosystems, affecting native organisms and the habitat where they live in, causing substantial biological and monetary losses worldwide. Due to the impact of invasive species, it is important to understand what makes some species more invasive than others. Here, by simulating populations using a forward-in-time approach combining ecological and single polymorphic nucleotides (SNPs) we evaluated the relation between propagule size (number of individuals = 2, 10, 100, and 1,000), extinction rate (with values 2%, 5%, 10%, and 20%), and initial heterozygosity (0.1, 0.3, and 0.5) on the population survival and maintenance of the heterozygosity of a simulated invasive crab species over 30 generations assuming a single introduction. Our results revealed that simulated invasive populations with initial propagule sizes of 2-1,000 individuals experiencing a high extinction rate (10-20% per generation) were able to maintain over 50% of their initial heterozygosity during the first generations and that under scenarios with lower extinction rates invasive populations with initial propagule sizes of 10-1,000 individuals can survive up to 30 generations and maintain 60-100% of their initial heterozygosity. Our results can help other researchers better understand, how species with small propagule sizes and low heterozygosities can become successful invaders.

Species Delimitation in a Polyploid Group of Iberian Jasione (Campanulaceae) Unveils Coherence between Cryptic Speciation and Biogeographical Regionalization

Groups with morphological stasis are an interesting framework to address putative cryptic species that may be hidden behind traditional taxonomic treatments, particularly when distribution ranges suggest disjunct and environmentally heterogeneous biogeographic patterns. New hypotheses of delimitation of evolutionary independent units can lead to the identification of different biogeographic processes, laying the foundation to investigate their historical and ecological significance. Jasione is a plant genus with a distribution centered in the Mediterranean basin, characterized by significant morphological stasis. Within the western Mediterranean J. gr. crispa species complex, J. sessiliflora s.l. and allied taxa form a distinct group, occupying environmentally diverse regions. At least two ploidy levels, diploid and tetraploid, are known to occur in the group. The internal variability is assessed with phylogenetic tools, viz. GMYC and ASAP, for species delimitation. The results are compared with other lines of evidence, including morphology and cytology. The fitting of distribution patterns of the inferred entities to chorological subprovinces is also used as a biogeographical and environmental framework to test the species hypothesis. Despite the scarcity of diagnostic morphological characters in the group, phylogenetic delimitation supports the description of at least one cryptic species, a narrow endemic in the NE Iberian Peninsula. Moreover, the results support the segregation of a thermophilic group of populations in eastern Iberia from J. sessiliflora. Ploidy variation from a wide geographical survey supports the systematic rearrangement suggested by species delimitation. Taxonomic reorganization in J. sessiliflora s.l. would allow ecological interpretations of distribution patterns in great accordance with biogeographical regionalization at the subprovince level, supporting geobotanical boundaries as a framework to interpret species ecological coherence of cryptic lineages. These results suggest that species differentiation, together with geographic isolation and polyploidization, is associated with adaptation to different environments, shifting from more to less thermophilic conditions. Thus, the recognition of concealed evolutionary entities is essential to correctly interpret biogeographical patterns in regions with a complex geologic and evolutionary history, such as the Mediterranean basin, and biogeographical units emerge as biologically sound frameworks to test the species hypothesis.

Trophic downgrading of an adaptable carnivore in an urbanising landscape

Urbanisation critically alters wildlife habitat and resource distribution, leading to shifts in trophic dynamics. The loss of apex predators in human-transformed landscapes can result in changes in the ecological roles of the remaining mesocarnivores. Decreased top-down control together with increased bottom-up forcing through greater availability of anthropogenic foods can result in a predation paradox. Understanding these changes is important for conserving ecological function and biodiversity in rapidly urbanising systems. Here, we use stable isotope analysis to provide insight into longer term changes in trophic position, niche width and overlap of an elusive, medium-sized urban adapter, the caracal (Caracal caracal) in and around the city of Cape Town, South Africa. Using fur samples (n = 168) from individuals along a gradient of urbanisation we find that overall caracals have a broad isotopic dietary niche that reflects their large variation in resource use. When accounting for underlying environmental differences, the intensity of anthropogenic pressure, measured using the Human Footprint Index (HFI), explained variation in both food subsidy use (δ13C values) and trophic status (δ15N values). The significantly higher δ13C values (P < 0.01) and lower δ15N values (P < 0.001) of caracals in more urbanised areas suggest that predator subsidy consumption occurs via predictable, anthropogenic resource subsidies to synanthropic prey. These prey species are predominantly primary consumers, resulting in shifts in diet composition towards lower trophic levels. Further, caracals using areas with higher HFI had narrower isotope niches than those in less impacted areas, likely due to their hyperfocus on a few lower trophic level prey species. This pattern of niche contraction in urban areas is retained when accounting for caracal demographics, including sex and age. The removal of apex predators in human-transformed landscapes together with reliable resource availability, including abundant prey, may paradoxically limit the ecological influence of the remaining predators, and bring about a degree of predator trophic downgrading. The dampening of top-down control, and thus ecosystem regulation, likely points to widespread disruption of trophic dynamics in rapidly developing areas globally.

Meta-analysis reveals less sensitivity of non-native animals than natives to extreme weather worldwide

Extreme weather events (EWEs; for example, heatwaves, cold spells, storms, floods and droughts) and non-native species invasions are two major threats to global biodiversity and are increasing in both frequency and consequences. Here we synthesize 443 studies and apply multilevel mixed-effects metaregression analyses to compare the responses of 187 non-native and 1,852 native animal species across terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems to different types of EWE. Our results show that marine animals, regardless of whether they are non-native or native, are overall insensitive to EWEs, except for negative effects of heatwaves on native mollusks, corals and anemone. By contrast, terrestrial and freshwater non-native animals are only adversely affected by heatwaves and storms, respectively, whereas native animals negatively respond to heatwaves, cold spells and droughts in terrestrial ecosystems and are vulnerable to most EWEs except cold spells in freshwater ecosystems. On average, non-native animals displayed low abundance in terrestrial ecosystems, and decreased body condition and life history traits in freshwater ecosystems, whereas native animals displayed declines in body condition, life history traits, abundance, distribution and recovery in terrestrial ecosystems, and community structure in freshwater ecosystems. By identifying areas with high overlap between EWEs and EWE-tolerant non-native species, we also provide locations where native biodiversity might be adversely affected by their joint effects and where EWEs might facilitate the establishment and/or spread of non-native species under continuing global change.

Niche dynamics along two centuries of multiple crayfish invasions

The realised ecological niches of species may change in response to dynamic abiotic and biotic environments, particularly under fast global change. To fully understand the dynamics of niche features and their drivers, it is essential to have a long-term view of species distributions and the factors that may have influenced them. Here, we analysed the distribution and niche dynamics of the Italian crayfish (Austropotamobius fulcisianus) in the Iberian Peninsula over the past 200 years. The Italian crayfish was introduced to Spain in the 16th century, and spread due to multiple stocking events until the 1970s, when two North American crayfish (red swamp crayfish Procambarus clarkii, and signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus) were introduced. Both North American species are carriers of a pathogen (Aphanomyces astaci, the causal agent of crayfish plague) lethal to the Italian crayfish. We hypothesised that the realised niche of the Italian crayfish, both in breadth and in position, has changed over time following changes in its range. The distribution of the Italian crayfish expanded from the mid-19th century until the mid-20th century, in association with an enlargement of its realised niched, mostly towards less abrupt and more coastal-influenced areas. After the introduction of the North American crayfishes, the collapse of the Italian crayfish involved a niche shift towards rough terrains in mountain areas. North American crayfish have eventually occupied most of the Italian crayfish's niche space, with the few no-coexistence areas being relegated to the most abrupt and high-elevation territories. Our historical approach allowed us to document and understand the highly dynamic distribution and niche of the Italian crayfish in the presence of invader counterparts, and to explore the environmental conditions under which their coexistence is minimised.

Global diversity and biogeography of potential phytopathogenic fungi in a changing world

Phytopathogenic fungi threaten global food security but the ecological drivers of their global diversity and biogeography remain unknown. Here, we construct and analyse a global atlas of potential phytopathogenic fungi from 20,312 samples across all continents and major oceanic island regions, eleven land cover types, and twelve habitat types. We show a peak in the diversity of phytopathogenic fungi in mid-latitude regions, in contrast to the latitudinal diversity gradients observed in aboveground organisms. Our study identifies climate as an important driver of the global distribution of phytopathogenic fungi, and our models suggest that their diversity and invasion potential will increase globally by 2100. Importantly, phytopathogen diversity will increase largely in forest (37.27-79.12%) and cropland (34.93-82.51%) ecosystems, and this becomes more pronounced under fossil-fuelled industry dependent future scenarios. Thus, we recommend improved biomonitoring in forests and croplands, and optimised sustainable development approaches to reduce potential threats from phytopathogenic fungi.

Linking physiology and climate to infer species distributions in Australian skinks

Climate has a key impact on animal physiology, which in turn can have a profound influence on geographic distributions. Yet, the mechanisms linking climate, physiology and distribution are not fully resolved. Using an integrative framework, we tested the predictions of the climatic variability hypothesis (CVH), which states that species with broader distributions have broader physiological tolerance than range-restricted species, in a group of Lampropholis skinks (8 species, 196 individuals) along a latitudinal gradient in eastern Australia. We investigated several physiological aspects including metabolism, water balance, thermal physiology, thermoregulatory behaviour and ecological performance. Additionally, to test whether organismal information (e.g. behaviour and physiology) can enhance distribution models, hence providing evidence that physiology and climate interact to shape range sizes, we tested whether species distribution models incorporating physiology better predict the range sizes than models using solely climatic layers. In agreement with the CVH, our results confirm that widespread species can tolerate and perform better at broader temperature ranges than range-restricted species. We also found differences in field body temperatures, but not thermal preference, between widespread and range-restricted species. However, metabolism and water balance did not correlate with range size. Biophysical modelling revealed that the incorporation of physiological and behavioural data improves predictions of Lampropholis distributions compared with models based solely on macroclimatic inputs, but mainly for range-restricted species. By integrating several aspects of the physiology and niche modelling of a group of ectothermic animals, our study provides evidence that physiology correlates with species distributions. Physiological responses to climate are central in establishing geographic ranges of skinks, and the incorporation of processes occurring at local scales (e.g. behaviour) can improve species distribution models.

Patterns and drivers of climatic niche dynamics during biological invasions of island-endemic amphibians, reptiles, and birds

Shifts between native and alien climatic niches pose a major challenge for predicting biological invasions. This is particularly true for insular species because geophysical barriers could constrain the realization of their fundamental niches, which may lead to underestimates of their invasion potential. To investigate this idea, we estimated the frequency of shifts between native and alien climatic niches and the magnitude of climatic mismatches using 80,148 alien occurrences of 46 endemic insular amphibian, reptile, and bird species. Then, we assessed the influence of nine potential predictors on climatic mismatches across taxa, based on species' characteristics, native range physical characteristics, and alien range properties. We found that climatic mismatch is common during invasions of endemic insular birds and reptiles: 78.3% and 55.1% of their respective alien records occurred outside of the environmental space of species' native climatic niche. In comparison, climatic mismatch was evident for only 16.2% of the amphibian invasions analyzed. Several predictors significantly explained climatic mismatch, and these varied among taxonomic groups. For amphibians, only native range size was associated with climatic mismatch. For reptiles, the magnitude of climatic mismatch was higher for species with narrow native altitudinal ranges, occurring in topographically complex or less remote islands, as well as for species with larger distances between their native and alien ranges. For birds, climatic mismatch was significantly larger for invasions on continents with higher phylogenetic diversity of the recipient community, and when the invader was more evolutionarily distinct. Our findings highlight that apparently common niche shifts of insular species may jeopardize our ability to forecast their potential invasions using correlative methods based on climatic variables. Also, we show which factors provide additional insights on the actual invasion potential of insular endemic amphibians, reptiles, and birds.

Niche shifts and range expansions after invasions of two major pests: the Asian longhorned beetle and the citrus longhorned beetle

BACKGROUND

In recent years, the quarantine forestry pests the Asian longhorned beetle (ALB) Anoplophora glabripennis and the citrus longhorned beetle (CLB) Anoplophora chinensis have spread across the Northern Hemisphere, triggering concern about their potential distribution. However, little is known about the niche shifts of the pests during the invasion, making it difficult to assess their potential ranges. We thus employed two distinct approaches (i.e., ordination-based and reciprocal model-based) to compare the native and invaded niches of ALB and CLB after their spread to new continents based on global occurrence records. We further constructed models with pooled occurrences from both the native and invaded ranges to analyze the effects of occurrence partitioning on predicted ranges.

RESULTS

We detected expansions in the invaded niches of both pests, indicating that the niches shifted to varying extents after the invasion. Large shares of the native niches of ALB and CLB remained unfilled, revealing the potential for further invasion in new regions. The models calibrated with pooled occurrences clearly underestimated the potential ranges in invaded regions compared with the projections based on partitioned models considering native and invaded areas separately.

CONCLUSIONS

These results emphasize the importance of elucidating the niche dynamics of invasive species for obtaining accurately predicted ranges, which may help identify risk areas masked by the assumption of niche conservatism. Furthermore, prevention and quarantine measures for ALB and CLB are clearly needed to avoid future serious damage to forest ecosystems. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Invasive wild deer exhibit environmental niche shifts in Australia: Where to from here?

Invasive species have established populations around the world and, in the process, characteristics of their realized environmental niches have changed. Because of their popularity as a source of game, deer have been introduced to, and become invasive in, many different environments around the world. As such, deer should provide a good model system in which to test environmental niche shifts. Using the current distributions of the six deer species present in Australia, we quantified shifts in their environmental niches that occurred since introduction; we determined the differences in suitable habitat between their international (native and invaded) and their Australian ranges. Given knowledge of their Australian habitat use, we then modeled the present distribution of deer in Australia to assess habitat suitability, in an attempt to predict future deer distributions. We show that the Australian niches of hog (Axis porcinus), fallow (Dama dama), red (Cervus elaphus), rusa (C. timorensis), and sambar deer (C. unicolor), but not chital deer (A. axis), were different to their international ranges. When we quantified the potential range of these six species in Australia, chital, hog, and rusa deer had the largest areas of suitable habitat outside their presently occupied habitat. The other three species had already expanded outside the ranges that we predicted as suitable. Here, we demonstrate that deer have undergone significant environmental niche shifts following introduction into Australia, and these shifts are important for predicting the future spread of these invasive species. It is important to note that current Australian and international environmental niches did not necessarily predict range expansions, thus wildlife managers should treat these analyses as conservative estimates.

May future climate change promote the invasion of the marsh frog? An integrative thermo-physiological study

Climate change and invasive species are two major drivers of biodiversity loss and their interaction may lead to unprecedented further loss. Invasive ectotherms can be expected to tolerate temperature variation because of a broad thermal tolerance and may even benefit from warmer temperatures in their new ranges that better match their thermal preference. Multi-trait studies provide a valuable approach to elucidate the influence of temperature on the invasion process and offer insights into how climatic factors may facilitate or hinder the spread of invasive ectotherms. We here used marsh frogs, Pelophylax ridibundus, a species that is invading large areas of Western Europe but whose invasive potential has been underestimated. We measured the maximal and minimal temperatures to sustain physical activity, the preferred temperature, and the thermal dependence of their stamina and jumping performance in relation to the environmental temperatures observed in their invasive range. Our results showed that marsh frogs can withstand body temperatures that cover 100% of the annual temperature variation in the pond they live in and 77% of the observed current annual air temperature variation. Their preferred body temperature and performance optima were higher than the average temperature in their pond and the average air temperature experienced under the shade. These data suggest that invasive marsh frogs may benefit from a warmer climate. Broad thermal tolerances, combined with high thermal preferences and traits maximised at high temperatures, may allow this species to expand their activity period and colonise underexploited shaded habitat, thereby promoting their invasion success.

Mechanistic models project bird invasions with accuracy

Invasive species pose a major threat to biodiversity and inflict massive economic costs. Effective management of bio-invasions depends on reliable predictions of areas at risk of invasion, as they allow early invader detection and rapid responses. Yet, considerable uncertainty remains as to how to predict best potential invasive distribution ranges. Using a set of mainly (sub)tropical birds introduced to Europe, we show that the true extent of the geographical area at risk of invasion can accurately be determined by using ecophysiological mechanistic models that quantify species' fundamental thermal niches. Potential invasive ranges are primarily constrained by functional traits related to body allometry and body temperature, metabolic rates, and feather insulation. Given their capacity to identify tolerable climates outside of contemporary realized species niches, mechanistic predictions are well suited for informing effective policy and management aimed at preventing the escalating impacts of invasive species.

Social-ecological cascade effects of land use on vertebrate pest dynamics in arid agricultural communities

Extensive land conversion to agriculture in drylands and associated resource use have wide-ranging impacts on desert ecosystems globally. Incorporating the impacts of human-social aspects is thus imperative in examining ecological interactions. The provision of agricultural inputs in these resource-scarce regions supports invasive and pest species, negatively impacting both agricultural productivity and native desert ecosystems. Understanding the spatial dynamics of invasive and pest species requires analyzing both bottom-up resource availability factors underlying animal distributions and top-down biological controls. Here, we evaluate the social-ecological cascading effects of dryland agriculture on vertebrate pest communities in dryland agricultural communities of Israel. Our study region is characterized by 18 agricultural cooperatives with distinct crop regimes due to contrasting social decision-making and resource allocation schemes (i.e., communal kibbutzim vs. privatized moshavim). Crop choices further affect land management (e.g., enclosed vs. open farm systems) and resource intensity. This system is ideal for studying trophic mechanisms underlying animal assemblages between agricultural regimes. We examine the role of agricultural land-use practices on pest spatial distributions based on multiyear vertebrate pest observations with agricultural data sets. We use structural equation modeling (SEM) to quantify the relative importance of added agricultural resources underlying bottom-up and top-down trophic processes regulating vertebrate pest assemblages. Results reveal that crop choices determine pest distributions through bottom-up processes directly, while simultaneously driving pest competitive interactions through indirect top-down cascades impacting pest communities. For example, due to the indirect negative effect of wolves on mesopredators (foxes and jackals) mediated by livestock, the total positive effect of livestock on the abundance of mesopredators is reduced. Our study illustrates the social-ecological cascading effects of agricultural regimes on pest community assemblages mediated by contrasting agricultural land-use practices. Considering the expansion of dryland agroecological systems globally, understanding the intricate cascading pathways of predator- and prey-pest communities has important implications for agricultural management, biological invasions in drylands, and fragile desert environments.

Niche Filling Dynamics of Ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) during Global Invasion

Determining whether the climatic ecological niche of an invasive alien plant is similar to that of the niche occupied by its native population (ecological niche conservatism) is essential for predicting the plant invasion process. Ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) usually poses serious threats to human health, agriculture, and ecosystems within its newly occupied range. We calculated the overlap, stability, unfilling, and expansion of ragweed's climatic ecological niche using principal component analysis and performed ecological niche hypothesis testing. The current and potential distribution of A. artemisiifolia was mapped by ecological niche models to identify areas in China with the highest potential risk of A. artemisiifolia invasion. The high ecological niche stability indicates that A. artemisiifolia is ecologically conservative during the invasion. Ecological niche expansion (expansion = 0.407) occurred only in South America. In addition, the difference between the climatic and native niches of the invasive populations is mainly the result of unpopulated niches. The ecological niche model suggests that southwest China, which has not been invaded by A. artemisiifolia, faces an elevated risk of invasion. Although A. artemisiifolia occupies a climatic niche distinct from native populations, the climatic niche of the invasive population is only a subset of the native niche. The difference in climatic conditions is the main factor leading to the ecological niche expansion of A. artemisiifolia during the invasion. Additionally, human activities play a substantial role in the expansion of A. artemisiifolia. Alterations in the A. artemisiifolia niche would help explain why this species is so invasive in China.

Preferred prey reduce species realized niche shift and improve range expansion prediction

Many studies have detected realized climatic niche shifts during range changes; this is challenging the fundamental theory of the niche conservatism hypothesis (NCH) and the usefulness of the ecological niche model (ENM) for predicting the distributions of species in space and time by tracking environmental change. Biotic factors such as predatory interactions are important components of species realized niches but are generally difficult to quantify during NCH testing and ENM building. Identifying species' preferred prey may provide a unique opportunity to include trophic interactions in assessing the NCH and determine whether more precise ENM predictions are generated. In this study, we focused on a range-expanding predatory bird, the Asian openbill (Anastomus oscitans). The main prey of the Asian openbill include 136 snail species. We observed a realized climatic niche shift during the northward expansion of the Asian openbill by considering only climates; however, niche conservatism was detected after incorporating their preferred prey. ENMs including preferred snails also predicted the distributions of the Asian openbill better than climate-only models and models including nonpreferred snails or only habitat variables. The results of our study suggested the importance of incorporating preferred prey in evaluating the NCH and developing a framework for predicting the range shifts of both native and alien species in response to global climate change.

Putative source and niche shift pattern of a new alien ant species (Odontomachus troglodytes) in Taiwan

Alien species may pose substantial impacts on biodiversity around the globe through international trade and travel. A niche shift hypothesis was proposed to explain the adaptive change of alien or invasive species in new habitats. However, whether niche shifts occur in alien species likely depends on both characteristics inherent to the species itself and its original distribution. Here we identified a newly exotic trap-jaw ant (Odontomachus troglodytes) in Taiwan by morphological and phylogenetic analyses. The possible distribution range and the niche shift pattern were evaluated using ecological niche modelling. The results indicated that exotic O. troglodytes in the newly distributed area displayed a significant niche shift with low niche overlap and high niche expansion. This study reveals a long-distance invasive event from central Africa to Southeast Asia (more than 10,000 km) and predicts the potential distribution range of this new alien species in Taiwan.

MaxEnt brings comparable results when the input data are being completed; Model parameterization of four species distribution models

Species distribution models (SDMs) are practical tools to assess the habitat suitability of species with numerous applications in environmental management and conservation planning. The manipulation of the input data to deal with their spatial bias is one of the advantageous methods to enhance the performance of SDMs. However, the development of a model parameterization approach covering different SDMs to achieve well-performing models has rarely been implemented. We integrated input data manipulation and model tuning for four commonly-used SDMs: generalized linear model (GLM), gradient boosted model (GBM), random forest (RF), and maximum entropy (MaxEnt), and compared their predictive performance to model geographically imbalanced-biased data of a rare species complex of mountain vipers. Models were tuned up based on a range of model-specific parameters considering two background selection methods: random and background weighting schemes. The performance of the fine-tuned models was assessed based on recently identified localities of the species. The results indicated that although the fine-tuned version of all models shows great performance in predicting training data (AUC > 0.9 and TSS > 0.5), they produce different results in classifying out-of-bag data. The GBM and RF with higher sensitivity of training data showed more different performances. The GLM, despite having high predictive performance for test data, showed lower specificity. It was only the MaxEnt model that showed high predictive performance and comparable results for identifying test data in both random and background weighting procedures. Our results highlight that while GBM and RF are prone to overfitting training data and GLM over-predict nonsampled areas MaxEnt is capable of producing results that are both predictable (extrapolative) and complex (interpolative). We discuss the assumptions of each model and conclude that MaxEnt could be considered as a practical method to cope with imbalanced-biased data in species distribution modeling approaches.

Snake life history traits and their association with urban habitat use in a tropical city

Urbanisation changes landscapes, often simplifying and homogenising natural ecosystems while introducing novel environments. Although this transformation often adversely impacts native wildlife, generalist species that exhibit broad dietary and habitat requirements can persist and take advantage of urban environments. To understand which life history traits most influence the occurrence of a diverse snake assemblage in an urban environment, we leveraged a dataset of 5102 detection records for 12 snake species in the tropical city of Darwin, Australia. By building ecological niche models, calculating urban niche hypervolume, and compiling life history data, we analysed the diversity of environments occupied by each species and determined which landscape components were most associated with occurrence data. In keeping with our hypothesis that generalist species would be more successful, we found that species with broader habitat and dietary preferences, as well as a penchant for arboreality, were associated with larger urban niche hypervolumes and more frequent human–snake interactions. Additionally, we found that colubrid snakes had significantly larger urban niche hypervolumes than elapid species. These findings contribute to understanding how life history traits aid wildlife persistence in, and adaptation to, urban ecosystems, and have implications for landscape design and conservation management.

Future Trends in Obolodiplosis robiniae Distribution across Eurasian Continent under Global Climate Change

Obolodiplosis robiniae was discovered in Eurasia at the beginning of the 21st century. In this study, we explore the present and future (in the years 2050 and 2070) trends in the potential distribution of O. robiniae in Eurasia under diverse climate change scenarios based on a maximum entropy model. Our findings indicated that the current potential distribution area of O. robiniae is within the range of 21°34' and 65°39' N in the Eurasian continent. The primary factor controlling the distribution of O. robiniae is temperature. The highly and moderately suitable areas are mainly distributed in the semi-humid and semi-arid regions, which also happen to be the locations where the host black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) grows at its fastest rate. The forecast of the potential distribution area of O. robiniae revealed that the species would benefit from global warming. The region suitable for the habitat of O. robiniae is characterized by a large-scale northward expansion trend and an increase in temperature. This information would help the forestry quarantine departments of Asian and European countries provide early warnings on the probable distribution areas of O. robiniae and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of O. robiniae spread and outbreaks.

Evidence of the niche expansion of crofton weed following invasion in China

Niche dynamics of invasive alien plants (IAPs) play pivotal roles in biological invasion. Ageratina adenophora-one of the most aggressive IAPs in China and some parts of the world-poses severe ecological and socioeconomic threats. However, the spatiotemporal niche dynamics of A. adenophora in China remain unknown, which we aimed to elucidate in the present study. China, Mexico; using a unifying framework, we reconstructed the climate niche dynamics of A. adenophora and applied the optimal MaxEnt model to predict its potential geographical distribution in China. Furthermore, we compared the heterogeneity of A. adenophora niche between Mexico (native) and China (invasive). We observed a low niche overlap between Mexico (native) and China (invasive). Specifically, the niche of A. adenophora in China has distinctly expanded compared to that in Mexico, enhancing the invasion risk of this IAP in the former country. In fact, the climatic niche of A. adenophora in Mexico is a subset of that in China. The potential geographical distribution of A. adenophora is concentrated in the tropical and subtropical zones of Southwest China, and its geographical distribution pattern in China is shaped by the combination of precipitation and temperature variables. The niche dynamics of A. adenophora follow the hypothesis of niche shift and conservatism. The present work provides a unifying framework for studies on the niche dynamics of other IAPs worldwide.

Critical thermal limits and temperature-dependent walking speed may mediate coexistence between the native winter ant (Prenolepis imparis) and the invasive Argentine ant (Linepithemahumile)

Comparing the thermal tolerance and performance of native and invasive species from varying climatic origins may explain why some native and invasive species can coexist. We compared the thermal niches of an invasive and native ant species. The Argentine ant (Linepithema humile) is an invasive species that has spread to Mediterranean climates worldwide, where it is associated with losses in native arthropod biodiversity. In northern California, long-term surveys of ant biodiversity have shown that the winter ant (Prenolepis imparis) is the native species best able to coexist with Argentine ants. Both species tend hemipteran scales for food, and previous research suggests that these species' coexistence may depend on seasonal partitioning: winter ants are active primarily in the colder winter months, while Argentine ants are active primarily in the warmer months in northern California. We investigated the physiological basis of seasonal partitioning in Argentine and winter ants by a) measuring critical thermal limits, and b) comparing how ant walking speed varies with temperature. While both species had similar CTmax values, we found differences between the two species' critical thermal minima that may allow winter ants to remain functional at ecologically relevant temperatures between 0 and 2.5 °C. We also found that winter ants' walking speeds are significantly less temperature-dependent than those of Argentine ants. Winter ants walk faster than Argentine ants at low temperatures, which may allow the winter ants to remain active and forage at lower winter temperatures. These results suggest that partitioning based on differences in temperature tolerance promotes the winter ant's continued occupation of areas invaded by the Argentine ant.

Choosing among correlative, mechanistic, and hybrid models of species' niche and distribution

Different models are available to estimate species' niche and distribution. Mechanistic and correlative models have different underlying conceptual bases, thus generating different estimates of a species' niche and geographic extent. Hybrid models, which combining correlative and mechanistic approaches, are considered a promising strategy; however, no synthesis in the literature assessed their applicability for terrestrial vertebrates to allow best-choice model considering their strengths and trade-offs. Here, we provide a systematic review of studies that compared or integrated correlative and mechanistic models to estimate species' niche for terrestrial vertebrates under climate change. Our goal was to understand their conceptual, methodological, and performance differences, and the applicability of each approach. The studies we reviewed directly compared mechanistic and correlative predictions in terms of accuracy or estimated suitable area, however, without any quantitative analysis to support comparisons. Contrastingly, many studies suggest that instead of comparing approaches, mechanistic and correlative methods should be integrated (hybrid models). However, we stress that the best approach is highly context-dependent. Indeed, the quality and effectiveness of the prediction depends on the study's objective, methodological design, and which type of species' niche and geographic distribution estimated are more appropriate to answer the study's issue.

Cultivation has selected for a wider niche and large range shifts in maize

Background

Maize (Zea mays L.) is a staple crop cultivated on a global scale. However, its ability to feed the rapidly growing human population may be impaired by climate change, especially if it has low climatic niche and range lability. One important question requiring clarification is therefore whether maize shows high niche and range lability.

Methods

We used the COUE scheme (a unified terminology representing niche centroid shift, overlap, unfilling and expansion) and species distribution models to study the niche and range changes between maize and its wild progenitors using occurrence records of maize, lowland teosinte (Zea mays ssp. parviglumis) and highland teosinte (Zea mays ssp. mexicana), respectively, as well as explore the mechanisms underlying the niche and range changes.

Results

In contrast to maize in Mexico, maize did not conserve its niche inherited from lowland and highland teosinte at the global scale. The niche breadth of maize at the global scale was wider than that of its wild progenitors (ca. 5.21 and 3.53 times wider compared with lowland and highland teosinte, respectively). Compared with its wild progenitors, maize at global scale can survive in regions with colder, wetter climatic conditions, as well as with wider ranges of climatic variables (ca. 4.51 and 2.40 times wider compared with lowland and highland teosinte, respectively). The niche changes of maize were largely driven by human introduction and cultivation, which have exposed maize to climatic conditions different from those experienced by its wild progenitors. Small changes in niche breadth had large effects on the magnitude of range shifts; changes in niche breadth thus merit increased attention.

Discussion

Our results demonstrate that maize shows wide climatic niche and range lability, and this substantially expanded its realized niche and potential range. Our findings also suggest that niche and range shifts probably triggered by natural and artificial selection in cultivation may enable maize to become a global staple crop to feed the growing population and adapting to changing climatic conditions. Future analyses are needed to determine the limits of the novel conditions that maize can tolerate, especially relative to projected climate change.

Global assessment of three Rumex species reveals inconsistent climatic niche shifts across multiple introduced ranges

Climatic niche shifts occur when species occupy different climates in the introduced range than in their native range. Climatic niche shifts are known to occur across a range of taxa, however we do not currently understand whether climatic niche shifts can consistently be predicted across multiple introduced ranges. Using three congeneric weed species, we investigate whether climatic niche shifts in one introduced range are consistent in other ranges where the species has been introduced. We compared the climatic conditions occupied by Rumex conglomeratus, R. crispus, and R. obtusifolius between their native range (Eurasia) and three different introduced ranges (North America, Australia, New Zealand). We considered metrics of niche overlap, expansion, unfilling, pioneering, and similarity to determine whether climatic niche shifts were consistent across ranges and congeners. We found that the presence and direction of climatic niche shifts was inconsistent between introduced ranges for each species. Within an introduced range, however, niche shifts were qualitatively similar among species. North America and New Zealand experienced diverging niche expansion into drier and wetter climates respectively, whilst the niche was conserved in Australia. This work highlights how unique characteristics of an introduced range and local introduction history can drive different niche shifts, and that comparisons between only the native and one introduced range may misrepresent a species’ capacity for niche shifts. However, predictions of climatic niche shifts could be improved by comparing related species in the introduced range rather than relying on the occupied environments of the native range.

Contrasting patterns from two invasion fronts suggest a niche shift of an invasive predator of native bees

Background

The accuracy of predictions of invasive species ranges is dependent on niche similarity between invasive and native populations and on our ability to identify the niche characteristics. With this work we aimed to compare the niche dynamics of two genetically related invasive populations of Vespa velutina (an effective predator of honeybees and wild pollinators), in two distinct climatic regions, one in central Europe and another one in the north-western Iberian Peninsula, and hence to identify uninvaded regions susceptible to invasion.

Methods

Niche dynamics and shifts of V. velutina were assessed by comparing the environmental niches of the native and of the two invasive populations, using climatic, topographic and land use variables. We also ran reciprocal distribution models using different algorithms and records from both native and invasive ranges to compare model predictions and estimate which regions are at a greater risk of being invaded.

Results

An apparent niche shift was detected in the population of the NW of Iberian Peninsula, where the species is living under environmental conditions different from the native niche. In central Europe, large suitable areas remain unoccupied. The fact that both invasive populations are well established, despite occupying environmentally distinct regions indicates that V. velutina has a high ability to successfully invade different environmental envelopes from those existing in its native range. For example, in north-western Iberian Peninsula the species is now thriving out of its native niche limits. Moreover, the large extent of still unoccupied environmental space with similar conditions to those used by the species in its native range suggests that there is still a large area of central and eastern Europe that can be potentially invaded by the species.

Biological invasions reveal how niche change affects the transferability of species distribution models

Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely applied to predict geographic ranges of species across space and time under the assumption of niche conservatism (i.e., species niches change very slowly). However, an increasing number of studies have reported evidence of rapid niche changes across space and time, which has sparked a widespread debate on whether SDMs can be transferred to new areas or time periods. Understanding how niche changes affect SDM transferability is thus crucial for the future application and improvement of SDMs. Biological invasions provide an opportunity to address this question due to the geographically independent distributions and diverse patterns of niche changes between species' native and introduced ranges. Here, we synthesized findings about 217 species from 50 studies to elucidate the effects of niche change on the spatial transferability of SDMs. When niche change was considered as a categorical classification (conserved vs. shifted niches) in tests of the niche conservatism hypothesis, SDM transferability was markedly lower for species with a shifted niche in their introduced range. When niche change was measured as numerical dynamics between native and introduced niches, SDM transferability was high for species occupying similar environmental conditions in both ranges and low for species with more environmental space remaining unoccupied in the introduced range. Surprisingly, the number of presence points used for developing SDMs turned out to have an even stronger effect on transferability. Our results thus reveal detrimental effects of both niche change and lack of presence points on SDM transferability. It is necessary to consider both niche change and data quality for improving the transferability of SDMs, so that they can better support conservation management and policy decisions.

Climate change and niche unfilling tend to favor range expansion of Moina macrocopa Straus 1820, a potentially invasive cladoceran in temporary waters

Non-native species' introductions have increased in the last decades primarily due to anthropogenic causes such as climate change and globalization of trade. Moina macrocopa, a stress-tolerant cladoceran widely used in bioassays and aquaculture, is spreading in temporary and semi-temporary natural ponds outside its natural range. Here, we characterize the variations in the climatic niche of M. macrocopa during its invasions outside the native Palearctic range following introduction into the American continent. Specifically, we examined to what extent the climatic responses of this species have diverged from those characteristics for its native range. We also made predictions for its potential distribution under current and future scenarios. We found that the environmental space occupied by this species in its native and introduced distribution areas shares more characteristics than randomly expected. However, the introduced niche has a high degree of unfilling when displacing its original space towards the extension to drier and hotter conditions. Accordingly, M. macrocopa can invade new areas where it has not yet been recorded in response to warming temperatures and decreasing winter precipitation. In particular, temporary ponds are more vulnerable environments where climatic and environmental stresses may also lower biotic resistance.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10750-022-04835-7.

Complex genetic patterns and distribution limits mediated by native congeners of the worldwide invasive red-eared slider turtle

Non-native (invasive) species offer a unique opportunity to study the geographic distribution and range limits of species, wherein the evolutionary change driven by interspecific interactions between native and non-native closely related species is a key component. The red-eared slider turtle, Trachemys scripta elegans (TSE), has been introduced and successfully established worldwide. It can coexist with its native congeners T. cataspila, T. venusta and T. taylori in Mexico. We performed comprehensive fieldwork, executed a battery of genetic analyses and applied a novel species distribution modeling approach to evaluate their historical lineage relationships and contemporary population genetic patterns. Our findings support the historical common ancestry between native TSE and non-native (TSE_alien ), while also highlighting the genetic differentiation of the exotic lineage. Genetic patterns are associated with their range size/endemism gradient, the microendemic T. taylori showed significant reduced genetic diversity and high differentiation, whereas TSE_alien showed the highest diversity and signals of population size expansion. Counter to our expectations, lower naturally occurring distribution overlap and little admixture patterns were found between TSE and its congeners, exhibiting reduced gene flow and clear genetic separation across neighboring species despite having zones of contact. We demonstrate that these native Trachemys species have distinct climatic niche suitability, likely preventing establishment of and displacement by the TSE_alien . Moreover, we found major niche overlap between TSE_alien and native species worldwide, supporting our prediction that sites with closer ecological optima to the invasive species have higher establishment risk than those that are closer to the niche-center of the native species.

Brain transcriptome analysis reveals gene expression differences associated with dispersal behaviour between range-front and range-core populations of invasive cane toads in Australia

Understanding the mechanisms allowing invasive species to adapt to novel environments is a challenge in invasion biology. Many invaders demonstrate rapid evolution of behavioural traits involved in range expansion such as locomotor activity, exploration and risk‐taking. However, the molecular mechanisms that underpin these changes are poorly understood. In 86 years, invasive cane toads (Rhinella marina) in Australia have drastically expanded their geographic range westward from coastal Queensland to Western Australia. During their range expansion, toads have undergone extensive phenotypic changes, particularly in behaviours that enhance the toads’ dispersal ability. Common‐garden experiments have shown that some changes in behavioural traits related to dispersal are heritable. At the molecular level, it is currently unknown whether these changes in dispersal‐related behaviour are underlain by small or large differences in gene expression, nor is known the biological function of genes showing differential expression. Here, we used RNA‐seq to gain a better understanding of the molecular mechanisms underlying dispersal‐related behavioural changes. We compared the brain transcriptomes of toads from the Hawai'ian source population, as well as three distinct populations from across the Australian invasive range. We found markedly different gene expression profiles between the source population and Australian toads. By contrast, toads from across the Australian invasive range had very similar transcriptomic profiles. Yet, key genes with functions putatively related to dispersal behaviour showed differential expression between populations located at each end of the invasive range. These genes could play an important role in the behavioural changes characteristic of range expansion in Australian cane toads.

Climatic niche shifts in introduced species

Predictions of future biological invasions often rely on the assumption that introduced species establish only under climatic conditions similar to those in their native range. To date, 135 studies have tested this assumption of 'niche conservatism', yielding contradictory results. Here we revisit this literature, consider the evidence for niche shifts, critically assess the methods used, and discuss the authors' interpretations of niche shifts. We find that the true frequency of niche shifts remains unknown because of diverging interpretations of similar metrics, conceptual issues biasing conclusions towards niche conservatism, and the use of climatic data that may not be biologically meaningful. We argue that these issues could be largely addressed by focussing on trends or relative degrees of niche change instead of dichotomous classifications (shift versus no shift), consistently and transparently including non-analogous climates, and conducting experimental studies on mismatches between macroclimates and microclimates experienced by the study organism. Furthermore, an observed niche shift may result either from species filling a greater part of their fundamental niche during the invasion (a 'realised niche shift') or from rapid evolution of traits adapting species to novel climates in the introduced range (a 'fundamental niche shift'). Currently, there is no conclusive evidence distinguishing between these potential mechanisms of niche shifts. We outline how these questions may be addressed by combining computational analyses and experimental evidence.