Impact of HLA-driven HIV adaptation on virulence in populations of high HIV seroprevalence

Accelerating Bayesian inference of dependency between mixed-type biological traits

Inferring dependencies between mixed-type biological traits while accounting for evolutionary relationships between specimens is of great scientific interest yet remains infeasible when trait and specimen counts grow large. The state-of-the-art approach uses a phylogenetic multivariate probit model to accommodate binary and continuous traits via a latent variable framework, and utilizes an efficient bouncy particle sampler (BPS) to tackle the computational bottleneck-integrating many latent variables from a high-dimensional truncated normal distribution. This approach breaks down as the number of specimens grows and fails to reliably characterize conditional dependencies between traits. Here, we propose an inference pipeline for phylogenetic probit models that greatly outperforms BPS. The novelty lies in 1) a combination of the recent Zigzag Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (Zigzag-HMC) with linear-time gradient evaluations and 2) a joint sampling scheme for highly correlated latent variables and correlation matrix elements. In an application exploring HIV-1 evolution from 535 viruses, the inference requires joint sampling from an 11,235-dimensional truncated normal and a 24-dimensional covariance matrix. Our method yields a 5-fold speedup compared to BPS and makes it possible to learn partial correlations between candidate viral mutations and virulence. Computational speedup now enables us to tackle even larger problems: we study the evolution of influenza H1N1 glycosylations on around 900 viruses. For broader applicability, we extend the phylogenetic probit model to incorporate categorical traits, and demonstrate its use to study Aquilegia flower and pollinator co-evolution.

No Difference in the Prevalence of HIV-1 gag Cytotoxic T-Lymphocyte-Associated Escape Mutations in Viral Sequences from Early and Late Parts of the HIV-1 Subtype C Pandemic in Botswana

HIV is known to accumulate escape mutations in the gag gene in response to the immune response from cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs). These mutations can occur within an individual as well as at a population level. The population of Botswana exhibits a high prevalence of HLA*B57 and HLA*B58, which are associated with effective immune control of HIV. In this retrospective cross-sectional investigation, HIV-1 gag gene sequences were analyzed from recently infected participants across two time periods which were 10 years apart: the early time point (ETP) and late time point (LTP). The prevalence of CTL escape mutations was relatively similar between the two time points-ETP (10.6%) and LTP (9.7%). The P17 protein had the most mutations (9.4%) out of the 36 mutations that were identified. Three mutations (A83T, K18R, Y79H) in P17 and T190A in P24 were unique to the ETP sequences at a prevalence of 2.4%, 4.9%, 7.3%, and 5%, respectively. Mutations unique to the LTP sequences were all in the P24 protein, including T190V (3%), E177D (6%), R264K (3%), G248D (1%), and M228L (11%). Mutation K331R was statistically higher in the ETP (10%) compared to the LTP (1%) sequences (p < 0.01), while H219Q was higher in the LTP (21%) compared to the ETP (5%) (p < 0.01). Phylogenetically, the gag sequences clustered dependently on the time points. We observed a slower adaptation of HIV-1C to CTL immune pressure at a population level in Botswana. These insights into the genetic diversity and sequence clustering of HIV-1C can aid in the design of future vaccine strategies.

HIV-1 subtype C Nef-mediated SERINC5 down-regulation significantly contributes to overall Nef activity

BACKGROUND

Nef performs multiple cellular activities that enhance HIV-1 pathogenesis. The role of Nef-mediated down-regulation of the host restriction factor SERINC5 in HIV-1 pathogenesis is not well-defined. We aimed to investigate if SERINC5 down-regulation activity contributes to HIV-1 subtype C disease progression, to assess the relative contribution of this activity to overall Nef function, and to identify amino acids required for optimal activity. We measured the SERINC5 down-regulation activity of 106 subtype C Nef clones, isolated from individuals in early infection, for which the Nef activities of CD4 and HLA-I down-regulation as well as alteration of TCR signalling were previously measured. The relationship between SERINC5 down-regulation and markers of disease progression, and the relative contribution of SERINC5 down-regulation to a Nef fitness model-derived E value (a proxy for overall Nef fitness in vivo), were assessed.

RESULTS

No overall relationship was found between SERINC5 down-regulation and viral load set point (p = 0.28) or rate of CD4⁺ T cell decline (p = 0.45). CD4 down-regulation (p = 0.02) and SERINC5 down-regulation (p = 0.003) were significant determinants of E values in univariate analyses, with the greatest relative contribution for SERINC5 down-regulation, and only SERINC5 down-regulation remained significant in the multivariate analysis (p = 0.003). Using a codon-by-codon analysis, several amino acids were significantly associated with increased (10I, 11V, 38D, 51T, 65D, 101V, 188H and, 191H) or decreased (10K, 38E, 65E, 135F, 173T, 176T and, 191R) SERINC5 down-regulation activity. Site-directed mutagenesis experiments of selected mutants confirmed a substantial reduction in SERINC5 down-regulation activity associated with the mutation 173T, while mutations 10K, 135F, and 176T were associated with more modest reductions in activity that were not statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that SERINC5 down-regulation is a significant contributor to overall Nef function and identify potential genetic determinants of this Nef function that may have relevance for vaccines or therapeutics.

Structural basis of the TCR-pHLA complex provides insights into the unconventional recognition of CDR3β in TCR cross-reactivity and alloreactivity

Evidence shows that some class I human leucocyte antigen (HLA) alleles are related to durable HIV controls. The T18A TCR, which has the alloreactivity between HLA-B∗42:01 and HLA-B∗81:01 and the cross-reactivity with different antigen mutants, can sustain long-term HIV controls. Here the structural basis of the T18A TCR binding to the immunodominant HIV epitope TL9 (TPQDLNTML180-188) presented by HLA-B∗42:01 was determined and compared to T18A TCR binding to the TL9 presented by the allo-HLA-B∗81:01. For differences between HLA-B∗42:01 and HLA-B∗81:01, the CDR1α and CDR3α loops adopt a small rearrangement to accommodate them. For different conformations of the TL9 presented by different HLA alleles, not like the conventional recognition of CDR3s to interact with peptide antigens, CDR3β of the T18A TCR shifts to avoid the peptide antigen but intensively recognizes the HLA only, which is different with other conventional TCR structures. Featured sequence pairs of CDR3β and HLA might account for this and were additionally found in multiple other diseases indicating the popularity of the unconventional recognition pattern which would give insights into the control of diseases with epitope mutating such as HIV.

Deep sequencing of the HIV-1 polymerase gene for characterisation of cytotoxic T-lymphocyte epitopes during early and chronic disease stages

BACKGROUND

Despite multiple attempts, there is still no effective HIV-1 vaccine available. The HIV-1 polymerase (pol) gene is highly conserved and encodes cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) epitopes. The aim of the study was to characterise HIV-1 Pol CTL epitopes in mostly sample pairs obtained during early and chronic stages of infection.

METHODS

Illumina deep sequencing was performed for all samples while Sanger sequencing was only performed on baseline samples. Codons under immune selection pressure were assessed by computing nonsynonymous to synonymous mutation ratios using MEGA. Minority CTL epitope variants occurring at [Formula: see text] 5% were detected using low-frequency variant tool in CLC Genomics. Los Alamos HIV database was used for mapping mutations to known HIV-1 CTL epitopes.

RESULTS

Fifty-two participants were enrolled in the study. Their median age was 28 years (interquartile range: 24-32 years) and majority of participants (92.3%) were female. Illumina minority variant analysis identified a significantly higher number of CTL epitopes (n = 65) compared to epitopes (n = 8) identified through Sanger sequencing. Most of the identified epitopes mapped to reverse transcriptase (RT) and integrase (IN) regardless of sequencing method. There was a significantly higher proportion of minority variant epitopes in RT (n = 39, 60.0%) compared to IN (n = 17, 26.2%) and PR (n = 9, 13.8%), p = 0.002 and < 0.0001, respectively. However, no significant difference was observed between the proportion of minority variant epitopes in IN versus PR, p = 0.06. Some epitopes were detected in either early or chronic HIV-1 infection whereas others were detected in both stages. Different distribution patterns of minority variant epitopes were observed in sample pairs; with some increasing or decreasing over time, while others remained constant. Some of the identified epitopes have not been previously reported for HIV-1 subtype C. There were also variants that could not be mapped to reported CTL epitopes in the Los Alamos HIV database.

CONCLUSION

Deep sequencing revealed many Pol CTL epitopes, including some not previously reported for HIV-1 subtype C. The findings of this study support the inclusion of RT and IN epitopes in HIV-1 vaccine candidates as these proteins harbour many CTL epitopes.

Structural Basis for Unusual TCR CDR3β Usage Against an Immunodominant HIV-1 Gag Protein Peptide Restricted to an HLA-B*81:01 Molecule

In HIV infection, some closely associated human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles are correlated with distinct clinical outcomes although presenting the same HIV epitopes. The mechanism that underpins this observation is still unknown, but may be due to the essential features of HLA alleles or T cell receptors (TCR). In this study, we investigate how T18A TCR, which is beneficial for a long-term control of HIV in clinic, recognizes immunodominant Gag epitope TL9 (TPQDLTML180-188) from HIV in the context of the antigen presenting molecule HLA-B*81:01. We found that T18A TCR exhibits differential recognition for TL9 restricted by HLA-B*81:01. Furthermore, via structural and biophysical approaches, we observed that TL9 complexes with HLA-B*81:01 undergoes no conformational change after TCR engagement. Remarkably, the CDR3β in T18A complexes does not contact with TL9 at all but with intensive contacts to HLA-B*81:01. The binding kinetic data of T18A TCR revealed that this TCR can recognize TL9 epitope and several mutant versions, which might explain the correlation of T18A TCR with better clinic outcomes despite the relative high mutation rate of HIV. Collectively, we provided a portrait of how CD8⁺ T cells engage in HIV-mediated T cell response.

High Level of Pre-Treatment HIV-1 Drug Resistance and Its Association with HLA Class I-Mediated Restriction in the Pumwani Sex Worker Cohort

Background: We analyzed the prevalence of pre-antiretroviral therapy (ART) drug resistance mutations (DRMs) in a Kenyan population. We also examined whether host HLA class I genes influence the development of pre-ART DRMs. Methods: The HIV-1 proviral DNAs were amplified from blood samples of 266 ART-naïve women from the Pumwani Sex Worker cohort of Nairobi, Kenya using a nested PCR method. The amplified HIV genomes were sequenced using next-generation sequencing technology. The prevalence of pre-ART DRMs was investigated. Correlation studies were performed between HLA class I alleles and HIV-1 DRMs. Results: Ninety-eight percent of participants had at least one DRM, while 38% had at least one WHO surveillance DRM. M184I was the most prevalent clinically important variant, seen in 37% of participants. The DRMs conferring resistance to one or more integrase strand transfer inhibitors were also found in up to 10% of participants. Eighteen potentially relevant (p < 0.05) positive correlations were found between HLA class 1 alleles and HIV drug-resistant variants. Conclusions: High levels of HIV drug resistance were found in all classes of antiretroviral drugs included in the current first-line ART regimens in Africa. The development of DRMs may be influenced by host HLA class I-restricted immunity.

Exome Sequencing Reveals a Putative Role for HLA-C*03:02 in Control of HIV-1 in African Pediatric Populations

Human leucocyte antigen (HLA) class I molecules present endogenously processed antigens to T-cells and have been linked to differences in HIV-1 disease progression. HLA allelotypes show considerable geographical and inter-individual variation, as does the rate of progression of HIV-1 disease, with long-term non-progression (LTNP) of disease having most evidence of an underlying genetic contribution. However, most genetic analyses of LTNP have occurred in adults of European ancestry, limiting the potential transferability of observed associations to diverse populations who carry the burden of disease. This is particularly true of HIV-1 infected children. Here, using exome sequencing (ES) to infer HLA allelotypes, we determine associations with HIV-1 LTNP in two diverse African pediatric populations. We performed a case-control association study of 394 LTNPs and 420 rapid progressors retrospectively identified from electronic medical records of pediatric HIV-1 populations in Uganda and Botswana. We utilized high-depth ES to perform high-resolution HLA allelotyping and assessed evidence of association between HLA class I alleles and LTNP. Sixteen HLA alleles and haplotypes had significantly different frequencies between Uganda and Botswana, with allelic differences being more prominent in HLA-A compared to HLA-B and C allelotypes. Three HLA allelotypes showed association with LTNP, including a novel association in HLA-C (HLA-B∗57:03, aOR 3.21, Pc = 0.0259; B∗58:01, aOR 1.89, Pc = 0.033; C∗03:02, aOR 4.74, Pc = 0.033). Together, these alleles convey an estimated population attributable risk (PAR) of non-progression of 16.5%. We also observed novel haplotype associations with HLA-B∗57:03-C∗07:01 (aOR 5.40, Pc = 0.025) and HLA-B∗58:01-C∗03:02 (aOR 4.88, Pc = 0.011) with a PAR of 9.8%, as well as a previously unreported independent additive effect and heterozygote advantage of HLA-C∗03:02 with B∗58:01 (aOR 4.15, Pc = 0.005) that appears to limit disease progression, despite weak LD (r 2 = 0.18) between these alleles. These associations remained irrespective of gender or country. In one of the largest studies of HIV in Africa, we find evidence of a protective effect of canonical HLA-B alleles and a novel HLA-C association that appears to augment existing HIV-1 control alleles in pediatric populations. Our findings outline the value of using multi-ethnic populations in genetic studies and offer a novel HIV-1 association of relevance to ongoing vaccine studies.

NK Cell Activity and CD57+/NKG2Chigh Phenotype Are Increased in Men Who Have Sex With Men at High Risk for HIV

Introduction

The HIV-exposed seronegative (HESN) status is for individuals who remain seronegative despite repeated exposure to HIV. One of the main cohorts within this group is men who have sex with men (MSM). Studies of this cohort have revealed different immunological and genetic mechanisms that can explain the phenomenon of natural HIV resistance. NK cells' higher effector capacity is related to natural resistance to HIV. Besides, a new population of NK cells with adaptive features was described recently. These cells are increased in some HESN cohorts and appear to be involved in better control of viral replication in primarily HIV-infected subjects. The present study evaluated the role of NK cells in the natural resistance to HIV-1 infection in MSM.

Methodology

Phenotypic and functional features were evaluated in NK cells from two groups of MSM, at different risks of HIV infection, according to the number of sexual partners. The production of IFN-γ and β-chemokines was included in the analysis, as well as the cytotoxic capacity and adaptive NK cell frequency. Genetic features, such as HLA and KIR allele frequencies, were also explored.

Results

High-risk MSM exhibit an increased frequency of fully mature and CD57+/NKG2Chigh NK cells. These individuals also show higher cytotoxic capacity and IFN-γ production in response to K562 stimuli. NK cells with a CD107a+/IFN-γ+ functional profile were found more frequently and displayed higher IFN-γ production capacity among high-risk MSM than among low-risk MSM. The protective allele HLA-B∗18 was only present in the high-risk MSM group as well as HLA-B∗ 39. The protective phenotype KIR3DL1/S1-HLA-B∗Bw4, in a homozygous state, was particularly abundant in the high-risk population. Notably, some of these functional features were related to higher frequencies of mature and CD57+/NKG2Chigh NK cells, which, in turn, were associated with a higher number of sexual partners.

Conclusion

The changes observed in the NK cell compartment can be driven by the magnitude of sexual exposure and immunological challenges of high-risk individuals, which could influence their resistance/susceptibility to HIV infection.

An HIV-1 Nef genotype that diminishes immune control mediated by protective human leucocyte antigen alleles

OBJECTIVES

Certain human leucocyte antigen (HLA)-B alleles (protective alleles) associate with durable immune control of HIV-1, but with substantial heterogeneity in the level of control. It remains elusive whether viral factors including Nef-mediated immune evasion function diminish protective allele effect on viral control.

DESIGN

The naturally occurring non-Ser variant at position 9 of HIV-1 subtype C Nef has recently exhibited an association with enhanced HLA-B downregulation function and decreased susceptibility to recognition by CD8 T cells. We therefore hypothesized this Nef genotype leads to diminished immune control mediated by protective HLA alleles.

METHODS

Nef sequences were isolated from HIV-1 subtype C-infected patients harboring protective alleles and several Nef functions including downregulation of HLA-A, HLA-B, CD4, and SERINC5 were examined. Association between Nef non-Ser9 and plasma viral load was examined in two independent South African and Botswanan treatment-naïve cohorts.

RESULTS

Nef clones isolated from protective allele individuals encoding Nef non-Ser9 variant exhibited greater ability to downregulate HLA-B when compared with the Ser9 variant, while other Nef functions including HLA-A, CD4, and SERINC5 downregulation activity were unaltered. By analyzing a cohort of South African participants chronically infected with subtype C HIV-1, Nef non-Ser9 associated with higher plasma viral load in patients harboring protective alleles. Corroboratively, the Nef non-Ser9 correlated with higher plasma viral load in an independent cohort in Botswana.

CONCLUSION

Taken together, our study identifies the Nef genotype, non-Ser9 that subverts host immune control in HIV-1 subtype C infection.

Specificity of CD8+ T-Cell Responses Following Vaccination with Conserved Regions of HIV-1 in Nairobi, Kenya

Sub-Saharan Africa carries the biggest burden of the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)/AIDS epidemic and is in an urgent need of an effective vaccine. CD8+ T cells are an important component of the host immune response to HIV-1 and may need to be harnessed if a vaccine is to be effective. CD8+ T cells recognize human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-associated viral epitopes and the HLA alleles vary significantly among different ethnic groups. It follows that definition of HIV-1-derived peptides recognized by CD8+ T cells in the geographically relevant regions will critically guide vaccine development. Here, we study fine details of CD8+ T-cell responses elicited in HIV-1/2-uninfected individuals in Nairobi, Kenya, who received a candidate vaccine delivering conserved regions of HIV-1 proteins called HIVconsv. Using 10-day cell lines established by in vitro peptide restimulation of cryopreserved PBMC and stably HLA-transfected 721.221/C1R cell lines, we confirm experimentally many already defined epitopes, for a number of epitopes we define the restricting HLA molecule(s) and describe four novel HLA-epitope pairs. We also identify specific dominance patterns, a promiscuous T-cell epitope and a rescue of suboptimal T-cell epitope induction in vivo by its functional variant, which all together inform vaccine design.

Detecting HLA-infectious disease associations for multi-strain pathogens

Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) molecules play a vital role helping our immune system to detect the presence of pathogens. Previous work to try and ascertain which HLA alleles offer advantages against particular pathogens has generated inconsistent results. We have constructed an epidemiological model to understand why this may occur. The model captures the epidemiology of a multi strain pathogen for which the host's ability to generate immunological memory responses to particular strains depends on that host's HLA genotype. We find that an HLA allele's ability to protect against infection, as measured in a case control study, depends on the population frequency of that HLA allele. Furthermore, our capability to detect associations between HLA alleles and infection with a multi strain pathogen may be affected by the properties of the pathogen itself (i.e R₀ and length of infectious period). Both host and pathogen genetics must be considered in order to identify true HLA associations. However, in the absence of detailed pathogen genetic information, a negative correlation between the frequency of an HLA type and its apparent protectiveness against disease caused by multi strain pathogen is a strong indication that the HLA type in question is well adapted to a subset of strains of that pathogen.

Clinical and evolutionary consequences of HIV adaptation to HLA: implications for vaccine and cure

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The purpose of this review is to summarize recent advances in our understanding of HIV adaptation to human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-associated immune pressures and its relevance to HIV prevention and cure research.

RECENT FINDINGS

Recent research has confirmed that HLA is a major driver of individual and population-level HIV evolution, that HIV strains are adapting to the immunogenetic profiles of the different human ethnic groups in which they circulate, and that HIV adaptation has substantial clinical and immunologic consequences. As such, adaptation represents a major challenge to HIV prevention and cure. At the same time, there are opportunities: Studies of HIV adaptation are revealing why certain HLA alleles are protective in some populations and not others; they are identifying immunogenic viral epitopes that harbor high mutational barriers to escape, and they may help illuminate novel, vaccine-relevant HIV epitopes in regions where circulating adaptation is extensive. Elucidation of HLA-driven adapted and nonadapted viral forms in different human populations and HIV subtypes also renders 'personalized' immunogen selection, as a component of HIV cure strategies, conceptually feasible.

SUMMARY

Though adaptation represents a major challenge to HIV prevention and cure, achieving an in-depth understanding of this phenomenon can help move the design of such strategies forward.

HIV Transmission Chains Exhibit Greater HLA-B Homogeneity Than Randomly Expected

BACKGROUND

HIV's capacity to escape immune recognition by human leukocyte antigen (HLA) is a core component of HIV pathogenesis. A better understanding of the distribution of HLA class I in HIV-infected patients would improve our knowledge of pathogenesis in relation to the host HLA type and could better improve therapeutic strategies against HIV.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Three hundred one to 325 transmission pairs and 469-496 clusters were identified for analysis among Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) participants using HIV pol sequences from the drug resistance database. HLA class I data were compiled at 3 specificity levels: 4-digit, 2-digit alleles, and HLA-B supertype. The analysis tabulated HLA-I homogeneity as 2 measures: the proportion of transmission pairs, which are HLA concordant, and the average percentage of allele matches within all clusters. These measures were compared with the mean value across randomizations with randomly assorted individuals.

RESULTS

We repeated the analysis for different HLA classification levels and separately for HLA-A, -B, and -C. Subanalyses by the risk group were performed for HLA-B. HLA-B showed significantly greater homogeneity in the transmission chains (2-digit clusters: 0.291 vs. 0.251, P value = 0.009; supertype clusters: 0.659 vs. 0.611, P value = 0.002; supertype pairs: 0.655 vs. 0.608, P value = 0.014). Risk group restriction caused the effect to disappear for men-who-have-sex-with-men but not for other risk groups. We also examined if protective HLA alleles B27 and B57 were under- or overrepresented in the transmission chains, although this yielded no significant pattern.

CONCLUSIONS

The HLA-B alleles of patients within HIV-1 transmission chains segregate in homogenous clusters/pairs, potentially indicating preferential transmission among HLA-B concordant individuals.

Deep sequence analysis of HIV adaptation following vertical transmission reveals the impact of immune pressure on the evolution of HIV

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) can adapt to an individual’s T cell immune response via genomic mutations that affect antigen recognition and impact disease outcome. These viral adaptations are specific to the host’s human leucocyte antigen (HLA) alleles, as these molecules determine which peptides are presented to T cells. As HLA molecules are highly polymorphic at the population level, horizontal transmission events are most commonly between HLA-mismatched donor/recipient pairs, representing new immune selection environments for the transmitted virus. In this study, we utilised a deep sequencing approach to determine the HIV quasispecies in 26 mother-to-child transmission pairs where the potential for founder viruses to be pre-adapted is high due to the pairs being haplo-identical at HLA loci. This scenario allowed the assessment of specific HIV adaptations following transmission in either a non-selective immune environment, due to recipient HLA mismatched to original selecting HLA, or a selective immune environment, mediated by matched donor/recipient HLA. We show that the pattern of reversion or fixation of HIV adaptations following transmission provides insight into the replicative cost, and likely compensatory networks, associated with specific adaptations in vivo. Furthermore, although transmitted viruses were commonly heavily pre-adapted to the child’s HLA genotype, we found evidence of de novo post-transmission adaptation, representing new epitopes targeted by the child’s T cell response. High-resolution analysis of HIV adaptation is relevant when considering vaccine and cure strategies for individuals exposed to adapted viruses via transmission or reactivated from reservoirs.

Highly mutable pathogens utilise genetic variations within T cell epitopes as a mechanism of immune escape (viral adaptation). The diversity of the human leucocyte antigen (HLA) molecules that present viral targets to T cells in human populations partially protects against rapid population-level accumulation of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) adaptations through horizontal transmissions. In contrast, vertical transmissions occur between haplo-identical mother/child pairs, and potentially include adaptive changes through father-mother-child transmission, representing a pathway to complete pre-adaptation to HLA alleles in child hosts over only two transmission events. We utilised next-generation sequencing to examine HIV evolution in the unique setting of vertical HIV transmission. We predict the in vivo replicative cost and immune benefit of specific HIV adaptations that could be used to inform vaccine design and cure strategies to combat viral immune adaptation.

Aiming for protective T-cell responses: a focus on the first generation conserved-region HIVconsv vaccines in preventive and therapeutic clinical trials

Introduction: Despite life-saving antiretroviral drugs, an effective HIV-1 vaccine is the best solution and likely a necessary component of any strategy for halting the AIDS epidemic. The currently prevailing aim is to pursue antibody-mediated vaccine protection. With ample evidence for the ability of T cells to control HIV-1 replication, their protective potential should be also harnessed by vaccination. The challenge is to elicit not just any, but protective T cells.Areas covered: This article reviews the clinical experience with the first-generation conserved-region immunogen HIVconsv delivered by combinations of plasmid DNA, simian adenovirus, and poxvirus MVA. The aim of our strategy is to induce strong and broad T cells targeting functionally important parts of HIV-1 proteins common to global variants. These vaccines were tested in eight phase 1/2 preventive and therapeutic clinical trials in Europe and Africa, and induced high frequencies of broadly specific CD8⁺ T cells capable of in vitro inhibition of four major HIV-1 clades A, B, C and D, and in combination with latency-reactivating agent provided a signal of drug-free virological control in early treated patients.Expert opinion: A number of critical T-cell traits have to come together at the same time to achieve control over HIV-1.

HLA-I Associated Adaptation Dampens CD8 T-Cell Responses in HIV Ad5-Vectored Vaccine Recipients

HLA-I-associated human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) adaptation is known to negatively affect disease progression and CD8 T-cell responses. We aimed to assess how HLA-I-associated adaptation affects HIV vaccine-induced CD8 T-cell responses in 2 past vaccine efficacy trials. We found that vaccine-encoded adapted epitopes were less immunogenic than vaccine-encoded nonadapted epitopes, and adapted epitope-specific responses were less polyfunctional than nonadapted epitope-specific responses. Along those lines, vaccine recipients with higher HLA-I adaptation to the Gag vaccine insert mounted less polyfunctional CD8 T-cell responses at the protein level. Breadth of response, which correlated with viral control in recipients who became infected, is also dampened by HLA-I adaptation. These findings suggest that HLA-I-associated adaptation is an important consideration for strategies aiming to induce robust CD8 T-cell responses.

Effect of diversity in gp41 membrane proximal external region of primary HIV-1 Indian subtype C sequences on interaction with broadly neutralizing antibodies 4E10 and 10E8

Human Immunodeficiency Virus-1 Clade C (HIV-1C) dominates the AIDS epidemic in India, afflicting 2.1 million individuals within the country and more than 15 million people worldwide. Membrane proximal external region (MPER) is an attractive target for broadly neutralizing antibody (bNAb) based therapies. However, information on MPER sequence diversity from India is meagre due to limited sampling of primary viral sequences. In the present study, we examined the variation in MPER of HIV-1C from 24 individuals in Mumbai, India by high throughput sequencing of uncultured viral sequences. Deep sequencing of MPER (662-683; HXB2 envelope amino acid numbering) allowed quantification of intra-individual variation up to 65% at positions 662, 665, 668, 674 and 677 within this region. These variable positions included contact sites targeted by bNAbs 2F5, Z13e1, 4E10 as well as 10E8. Both major and minor epitope variants i.e. 'haplotypes' were generated for each sample dataset. A total of 23, 34 and 25 unique epitope haplotypes could be identified for bNAbs 2F5, Z13e1 and 4E10/10E8 respectively. Further analysis of 4E10 and 10E8 epitopes from our dataset and meta-analysis of previously reported HIV-1 sequences from India revealed 26 epitopes (7 India-specific), heretofore untested for neutralization sensitivity. Peptide-Ab docking predicted 13 of these to be non-binding to 10E8. ELISA, Surface Plasmon Resonance and peptide inhibition of HIV-1 neutralization assays were then performed which validated predicted weak/non-binding interactions for peptides corresponding to six of these epitopes. These results highlight the under-representation of 10E8 non-binding HIV-1C MPER sequences from India. Our study thus underscores the need for increased surveillance of primary circulating envelope sequences for development of efficacious bNAb-based interventions in India.

Partitioning the influence of ecology across scales on parasite evolution

Vector-borne parasites must succeed at three scales to persist: they must proliferate within a host, establish in vectors, and transmit back to hosts. Ecology outside the host undergoes dramatic seasonal and human-induced changes, but predicting parasite evolutionary responses requires integrating their success across scales. We develop a novel, data-driven model to titrate the evolutionary impact of ecology at multiple scales on human malaria parasites. We investigate how parasites invest in transmission versus proliferation, a life-history trait that influences disease severity and spread. We find that transmission investment controls the pattern of host infectiousness over the course of infection: a trade-off emerges between early and late infectiousness, and the optimal resolution of that trade-off depends on ecology outside the host. An expanding epidemic favors rapid proliferation, and can overwhelm the evolutionary influence of host recovery rates and mosquito population dynamics. If transmission investment and recovery rate are positively correlated, then ecology outside the host imposes potent selection for aggressive parasite proliferation at the expense of transmission. Any association between transmission investment and recovery represents a key unknown, one that is likely to influence whether the evolutionary consequences of interventions are beneficial or costly for human health.

CD8 T cells targeting adapted epitopes in chronic HIV infection promote dendritic cell maturation and CD4 T cell trans-infection

HIV-1 frequently escapes from CD8 T cell responses via HLA-I restricted adaptation, leading to the accumulation of adapted epitopes (AE). We previously demonstrated that AE compromise CD8 T cell responses during acute infection and are associated with poor clinical outcomes. Here, we examined the impact of AE on CD8 T cell responses and their biological relevance in chronic HIV infection (CHI). In contrast to acute infection, the majority of AE are immunogenic in CHI. Longitudinal analyses from acute to CHI showed an increased frequency and magnitude of AE-specific IFNγ responses compared to NAE-specific ones. These AE-specific CD8 T cells also were more cytotoxic to CD4 T cells. In addition, AE-specific CD8 T cells expressed lower levels of PD1 and CD57, as well as higher levels of CD28, suggesting a more activated and less exhausted phenotype. During CHI, viral sequencing identified AE-encoding strains as the dominant quasispecies. Despite increased CD4 T cell cytotoxicity, CD8 T cells responding to AE promoted dendritic cell (DC) maturation and CD4 T cell trans-infection perhaps explaining why AE are predominant in CHI. Taken together, our data suggests that the emergence of AE-specific CD8 T cell responses in CHI confers a selective advantage to the virus by promoting DC-mediated CD4 T cell trans-infection.

HIV-1 infection remains a critical public health threat across the world. Over the past two decades, CD8 T cells have been clearly shown to exert immune pressure on HIV and drive viral adaptation. Previously, our group reported that such HLA-I associated adaptations can predict clinical outcomes and are beneficial to HIV-1 as CD8 T cells are unable to recognize epitopes with adaptation in acute HIV infection. However, it is still unclear how HIV-1 adaptation impacts CD8 T cells during chronic HIV infection. In this study, we observed an enhancement of CD8 T cell responses targeting adapted epitopes in chronic infection. Although these responses were cytotoxic, they also exhibited a “helper” effect by promoting viral infection of CD4 T cells via interaction with dendritic cells. This phenomenon may contribute to the persistence of adapted viruses. In summary, these findings present a novel mechanism of CD8 T cell driven HIV-1 adaptation.

Genetic diversity of piscine myocarditis virus in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar L. in Ireland

Piscine myocarditis virus (PMCV) is a double-stranded RNA virus which has been linked to cardiomyopathy syndrome (CMS) in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.). The first recorded outbreak of CMS in Ireland occurred in 2012. Heart tissue samples were collected in the current study from farmed Atlantic salmon from various marine sites around Ireland, and the open reading frames (ORFs) 1 and 3 were amplified and sequenced in order to examine the genetic diversity of PMCV. Results showed PMCV to be largely homogenous in Irish samples, showing little genetic diversity. However, several amino acid positions within both ORF1 and ORF3 showed consistent variations unique to the Irish PMCV strains when compared with previously published Norwegian strains. The phylogeny generated in the present study suggests that PMCV may have been introduced into Ireland in two waves, both coming from the southern part of PMCV's range in Norway. In addition, over three-quarters of the PMCV strains which were sequenced came from fish not exhibiting any clinical signs of CMS, suggesting that either PMCV is evolving to become less virulent in Ireland or Irish Atlantic salmon are developing immunity to the disease.

High polymorphism rates in well-known T cell epitopes restricted by protective HLA alleles during HIV infection are associated with rapid disease progression in early-infected MSM in China

T cell epitopes restricted by several protective HLA alleles, such as B*57, B*5801, B*27, B*51 and B*13, have been very well defined over the past two decades. We investigated 32 well-known T cell epitopes restricted by protective HLA molecules among 54 Chinese men who have sex with men (MSM) at the early stage of HIV-1 infection. Subjects in our cohort carrying protective HLA types did not exhibit slow CD4 T cell count decline (P = 0.489) or low viral load set points (P = 0.500). Variations occurred in 96.88% (31/32) of the known wild-type epitopes (rate 1.85-100%), and the variation rates of the strains of two CRF01_AE lineages were significantly higher than those of non-CRF01_AE strains (76.82% vs. 48.96%, P = 0.004; 71.27% vs. 8.96%, P = 0.025). Subjects infected with CRF01_AE exhibited relatively rapid disease progression (P = 0.035). Therefore, the lack of wild-type protective T cell epitopes restricted by classic protective HLA alleles in CRF01_AE HIV-1 strains may be one of the reasons why rapid disease progression is observed in Chinese MSM with HIV-1 infection.

Mechanisms of Abrupt Loss of Virus Control in a Cohort of Previous HIV Controllers

Elite and viremic HIV controllers are able to control their HIV infection and maintain undetectable or low-level viremia in the absence of antiretroviral treatment. Despite extensive studies, the immune factors responsible for such exclusive control remain poorly defined. We identified a cohort of 14 HIV controllers that suffered an abrupt loss of HIV control (LoC) to investigate possible mechanisms and virological and immunological events related to the sudden loss of control. The in-depth analysis of these subjects involved the study of cell tropism of circulating virus, evidence for HIV superinfection, cellular immune responses to HIV, as well as an examination of viral adaptation to host immunity by Gag sequencing. Our data demonstrate that a poor capacity of T cells to mediate in vitro viral suppression, even in the context of protective HLA alleles, predicts a loss of viral control. In addition, the data suggest that inefficient viral control may be explained by an increase of CD8 T-cell activation and exhaustion before LoC. Furthermore, we detected a switch from C5- to X4-tropic viruses in 4 individuals after loss of control, suggesting that tropism shift might also contribute to disease progression in HIV controllers. The significantly reduced inhibition of in vitro viral replication and increased expression of activation and exhaustion markers preceding the abrupt loss of viral control may help identify untreated HIV controllers that are at risk of losing control and may offer a useful tool for monitoring individuals during treatment interruption phases in therapeutic vaccine trials.IMPORTANCE A few individuals can control HIV infection without the need for antiretroviral treatment and are referred to as HIV controllers. We have studied HIV controllers who suddenly lose this ability and present with high in vivo viral replication and decays in their CD4+ T-cell counts to identify potential immune and virological factors that were responsible for initial virus control. We identify in vitro-determined reductions in the ability of CD8 T cells to suppress viral control and the presence of PD-1-expressing CD8+ T cells with a naive immune phenotype as potential predictors of in vivo loss of virus control. The findings could be important for the clinical management of HIV controller individuals, and it may offer an important tool to anticipate viral rebound in individuals in clinical studies that include combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) treatment interruptions and which, if not treated quickly, could pose a significant risk to the trial participants.

Interaction of the Host and Viral Genome and Their Influence on HIV Disease

The course of Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV) infection is a dynamic interplay in which both host and viral genetic variation, among other factors, influence disease susceptibility and rate of progression. HIV set-point viral load (spVL), a key indicator of HIV disease progression, has an estimated 30% of variance attributable to common heritable effects and roughly 70% attributable to environmental factors and/or additional non-genetic factors. Genome-wide genotyping and sequencing studies have allowed for large-scale association testing studying host and viral genetic variants associated with infection and disease progression. Host genomics of HIV infection has been studied predominantly in Caucasian populations consistently identifying human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genes and C-C motif chemokine receptor 5 as key factors of HIV susceptibility and progression. However, these studies don’t fully assess all classes of genetic variation (e.g., very rare polymorphisms, copy number variants etc.) and do not inform on non-European ancestry groups. Additionally, viral sequence variability has been demonstrated to influence disease progression independently of host genetic variation. Viral sequence variation can be attributed to the rapid evolution of the virus within the host due to the selective pressure of the host immune response. As the host immune system responds to the virus, e.g., through recognition of HIV antigens, the virus is able to mitigate this response by evolving HLA-specific escape mutations. Diversity of viral genotypes has also been correlated with moderate to strong effects on CD4+ T cell decline and some studies showing weak to no correlation with spVL. There is evidence to support these viral genetic factors being heritable between individuals and the evolution of these factors having important consequences in the genetic epidemiology of HIV infection on a population level. This review will discuss the host-pathogen interaction of HIV infection, explore the importance of host and viral genetics for a better understanding of pathogenesis and identify opportunities for additional genetic studies.

Major TCR Repertoire Perturbation by Immunodominant HLA-B*44:03-Restricted CMV-Specific T Cells

Lack of disease during chronic human cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection depends on the maintenance of a high-frequency CMV-specific T cell response. The composition of the T cell receptor (TCR) repertoire underlying this response remains poorly characterised, especially within African populations in which CMV is endemic from infancy. Here we focus on the immunodominant CD8+ T cell response to the immediate-early 2 (IE-2)-derived epitope NEGVKAAW (NW8) restricted by HLA-B^*44:03, a highly prevalent response in African populations, which in some subjects represents >10% of the circulating CD8+ T cells. Using pMHC multimer staining and sorting of NW8-specific T cells, the TCR repertoire raised against NW8 was characterised here using high-throughput sequencing in 20 HLA-B^*44:03 subjects. We found that the CD8+ T cell repertoire raised in response to NW8 was highly skewed and featured preferential use of a restricted set of V and J gene segments. Furthermore, as often seen in immunity against ancient viruses like CMV and Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), the response was strongly dominated by identical TCR sequences shared by multiple individuals, or “public” TCRs. Finally, we describe a pair “superdominant” TCR clonotypes, which were germline or nearly germline-encoded and produced at remarkably high frequencies in certain individuals, with a single CMV-specific clonotype representing up to 17% of all CD8+ T cells. Given the magnitude of the NW8 response, we propose that this major skewing of CMV-specific immunity leads to massive perturbations in the overall TCR repertoire in HLA-B^*44:03 individuals.

Extensive host immune adaptation in a concentrated North American HIV epidemic

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text

Objective:

HIV incidence in the Canadian province of Saskatchewan, where Indigenous persons make up 80% of those infected, are among the highest on the continent. Reports of accelerated HIV progression, associated with carriage of certain human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles (including the typically protective HLA-B∗51) have also emerged from the region. Given that acquisition of HIV preadapted to host HLA negatively impacts clinical outcome, we hypothesized that HIV-host adaptation may be elevated in Saskatchewan.

Design:

Comparative analysis of population-level HIV sequence datasets from Saskatchewan and elsewhere in Canada/USA.

Methods:

We analyzed 1144 HIV subtype B Pol sequences collected in Saskatchewan between 2000 and 2016, comprising ∼65% of cumulative provincial HIV cases, for the presence of 70 HLA-associated Pol mutations. Sequences from British Columbia (N = 6525) and elsewhere in Canada/USA (N = 6517) were used for comparison. HIV adaptation levels to 34 HLA alleles were also computed. Putative HIV transmission clusters were identified, and the prevalence of HLA-associated adaptations within and outside these clusters was investigated.

Results:

Analyses confirmed significantly elevated and temporally increasing levels of HIV adaptation to commonly expressed HLA alleles, in particular B∗51. Notably, HLA-adapted HIV strains were significantly enriched among phylogenetic clusters in Saskatchewan.

Conclusion:

Extensive circulating HIV adaptation to HLA in Saskatchewan provides a plausible explanation for accelerated progression, while enrichment of adapted variants in phylogenetic clusters suggests they are being widely transmitted. Results highlight the utility of Pol sequences, routinely collected for drug resistance monitoring, for surveillance of HIV-host adaptation, and underscore the urgent need to expand HIV prevention and treatment programmes in Saskatchewan.

HLA-DQB1*06 and breadth of Nef core region-specific T-cell response are associated with slow disease progression in antiretroviral therapy-naive Chinese HIV-1 subtype B patients

Vaccines still are an important way to prevent and treat acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). ¹ For developing an effective T cell-based AIDS vaccine, it is critical to define the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) type and epitope that elicit the most potent responses. This study involved 29 antiretroviral therapy-naive and chronic human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 subtype B-infected individuals. A polymerase chain reaction-sequence-specific primer was used to detect the HLA typing, and the enzyme-linked immunospot assay to quantify the T-cell immune function. The results showed that the HLA-DQB1*06-positive group had higher CD4 counts and lower viral load (VL) compared with the HLA-DQB1*06-negative group; A higher magnitude of HIV-1-specific T-cell response and breadth were observed in the HLA-DQB1*06-positive group; the T-cell response was proportional to VL (R² = 0.488, P = 0.0368) in the HLA-DQB1*06-positive group. The total T-cell responses to HIV-1 Nef core region were quantified at the single-peptide level. Nine (90%) peptides were recognized in 18 (62.1%) individuals. The breath of Nef core region-specific T-cell response was correlated positively with CD4⁺ T cell count and inversely with VL, which improved disease outcomes. These data revealed that HLA-DQB1*06 had a protective effect on the course of HIV-1 and T-cell targeting of certain specific Nef epitopes, contributing to HIV-1 suppression. The results suggested the potential use of HLA-DQB1*06 and Nef core region in HIV-1 T-cell vaccine design.

Incomplete inhibition of HIV infection results in more HIV infected lymph node cells by reducing cell death

HIV has been reported to be cytotoxic in vitro and in lymph node infection models. Using a computational approach, we found that partial inhibition of transmissions of multiple virions per cell could lead to increased numbers of live infected cells. If the number of viral DNA copies remains above one after inhibition, then eliminating the surplus viral copies reduces cell death. Using a cell line, we observed increased numbers of live infected cells when infection was partially inhibited with the antiretroviral efavirenz or neutralizing antibody. We then used efavirenz at concentrations reported in lymph nodes to inhibit lymph node infection by partially resistant HIV mutants. We observed more live infected lymph node cells, but with fewer HIV DNA copies per cell, relative to no drug. Hence, counterintuitively, limited attenuation of HIV transmission per cell may increase live infected cell numbers in environments where the force of infection is high.

The HIVvirus infects cells of the immune system. Once inside, it hijacks the cellular molecular machineries to make more copies of itself, which are then transmitted to new host cells. HIV eventually kills most cells it infects, either in the steps leading to the infection of the cell, or after the cell is already producing virus. HIV can spread between cells in two ways, known as cell-free or cell-to-cell. In the first, individual viruses are released from infected cells and move randomly through the body in the hope of finding new cells to infect. In the second, infected cells interact directly with uninfected cells. The second method is often much more successful at infecting new cells since they are exposed to multiple virus particles.

HIV infections can be controlled by using combinations of antiretroviral drugs, such as efavirenz, to prevent the virus from making more of itself. With a high enough dose, the drugs can in theory completely stop HIV infections, unless the virus becomes resistant to treatment. However, some patients continue to use these drugs even after the virus they are infected with develops resistance. It is not clear what effect taking ineffective, or partially effective, drugs has on how HIV progresses.

Using efavirenz, Jackson, Hunter et al. partially limited the spread of HIV between human cells grown in the laboratory. The experiments mirrored the situation where a partially resistant HIV strain spreads through the body. The results show that the success of cell-free infection is reduced as drug dose increases. Yet paradoxically, in cell-to-cell infection, the presence of drug caused more cells to become infected. This can be explained by the fact that, in cell-to-cell spread, each cell is exposed to multiple copies of the virus. The drug dose reduced the number of viral copies per cell without stopping the virus from infecting completely. The reduced number of viral copies per cell made it more likely that infected cells would survive the infection long enough to produce virus particles themselves.

Viruses that can kill cells, such as HIV, must balance the need to make more of themselves against the speed that they kill their host cell to maximize the number of infected cells. If transmission between cells is too effective and too many virus particles are delivered to the new cell, the virus may not manage to infect new hosts before killing the old ones. These findings highlight this delicate balance. They also indicate a potential issue in using drugs to treat partially resistant virus strains. Without care, these treatments could increase the number of infected cells in the body, potentially worsening the effects of living with HIV.

Genetics of Natural Killer Cells in Human Health, Disease, and Survival

Natural killer (NK) cells have vital functions in human immunity and reproduction. In the innate and adaptive immune responses to infection, particularly by viruses, NK cells respond by secreting inflammatory cytokines and killing infected cells. In reproduction, NK cells are critical for genesis of the placenta, the organ that controls the supply of oxygen and nutrients to the growing fetus. Controlling NK cell functions are interactions of HLA class I with inhibitory NK cell receptors. First evolved was the conserved interaction of HLA-E with CD94:NKG2A; later established were diverse interactions of HLA-A, -B, and -C with killer cell immunoglobulin-like receptors. Characterizing the latter interactions is rapid evolution, which distinguishes human populations and all species of higher primate. Driving this evolution are the different and competing selections imposed by pathogens on NK cell-mediated immunity and by the constraints of human reproduction on NK cell-mediated placentation. Promoting rapid evolution is independent segregation of polymorphic receptors and ligands throughout human populations.

Immunodominant cytomegalovirus-specific CD8+ T-cell responses in sub-Saharan African populations

More than 90% of children in Africa are infected with cytomegalovirus (CMV) by the age of 12 months. However, the high-frequency, immunodominant CD8+ T-cell responses that control CMV infection have not been well studied in African populations. We therefore sought to define the immunodominant CMV-specific CD8+ T-cell responses within sub-Saharan African study subjects. Among 257 subjects, we determined the CD8+ T-cell responses to overlapping peptides spanning three of the most immunogenic CMV proteins, pp65, IE-1 and IE-2, using IFN-γ ELISpot assays. A bioinformatics tool was used to predict optimal epitopes within overlapping peptides whose recognition was statistically associated with expression of particular HLA class I molecules. Using this approach, we identified 16 predicted novel CMV-specific epitopes within CMV-pp65, IE-1 and IE-2. The immunodominant pp65-specific, IE-1, IE-2 responses were all either previously well characterised or were confirmed using peptide-MHC tetramers. The novel epitopes identified included an IE-2-specific epitope restricted by HLA*B*44:03 that induced high-frequency CD8+ T-cell responses (mean 3.4% of CD8+ T-cells) in 95% of HLA-B*44:03-positive subjects tested, in one individual accounting for 18.8% of all CD8+ T-cells. These predicted novel CMV-specific CD8+ T-cell epitopes identified in an African cohort will facilitate future analyses of immune responses in African populations where CMV infection is almost universal during infancy.

Estimating the impact of antiretroviral treatment on adult mortality trends in South Africa: A mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

Substantial reductions in adult mortality have been observed in South Africa since the mid-2000s, but there has been no formal evaluation of how much of this decline is attributable to the scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART), as previous models have not been calibrated to vital registration data. We developed a deterministic mathematical model to simulate the mortality trends that would have been expected in the absence of ART, and with earlier introduction of ART.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Model estimates of mortality rates in ART patients were obtained from the International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS-Southern Africa (IeDEA-SA) collaboration. The model was calibrated to HIV prevalence data (1997-2013) and mortality data from the South African vital registration system (1997-2014), using a Bayesian approach. In the 1985-2014 period, 2.70 million adult HIV-related deaths occurred in South Africa. Adult HIV deaths peaked at 231,000 per annum in 2006 and declined to 95,000 in 2014, a reduction of 74.7% (95% CI: 73.3%-76.1%) compared to the scenario without ART. However, HIV mortality in 2014 was estimated to be 69% (95% CI: 46%-97%) higher in 2014 (161,000) if the model was calibrated only to HIV prevalence data. In the 2000-2014 period, the South African ART programme is estimated to have reduced the cumulative number of HIV deaths in adults by 1.72 million (95% CI: 1.58 million-1.84 million) and to have saved 6.15 million life years in adults (95% CI: 5.52 million-6.69 million). This compares with a potential saving of 8.80 million (95% CI: 7.90 million-9.59 million) life years that might have been achieved if South Africa had moved swiftly to implement WHO guidelines (2004-2013) and had achieved high levels of ART uptake in HIV-diagnosed individuals from 2004 onwards. The model is limited by its reliance on all-cause mortality data, given the lack of reliable cause-of-death reporting, and also does not allow for changes over time in tuberculosis control programmes and ART effectiveness.

CONCLUSIONS

ART has had a dramatic impact on adult mortality in South Africa, but delays in the rollout of ART, especially in the early stages of the ART programme, have contributed to substantial loss of life. This is the first study to our knowledge to calibrate a model of ART impact to population-level recorded death data in Africa; models that are not calibrated to population-level death data may overestimate HIV-related mortality.

HLA-B*14:02-Restricted Env-Specific CD8+ T-Cell Activity Has Highly Potent Antiviral Efficacy Associated with Immune Control of HIV Infection

Immune control of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV) infection is typically associated with effective Gag-specific CD8+ T-cell responses. We here focus on HLA-B*14, which protects against HIV disease progression, but the immunodominant HLA-B*14-restricted anti-HIV response is Env specific (ERYLKDQQL, HLA-B*14-EL9). A subdominant HLA-B*14-restricted response targets Gag (DRYFKTLRA, HLA-B*14-DA9). Using HLA-B*14/peptide-saporin-conjugated tetramers, we show that HLA-B*14-EL9 is substantially more potent at inhibiting viral replication than HLA-B*14-DA9. HLA-B*14-EL9 also has significantly higher functional avidity (P < 0.0001) and drives stronger selection pressure on the virus than HLA-B*14-DA9. However, these differences were HLA-B*14 subtype specific, applying only to HLA-B*14:02 and not to HLA-B*14:01. Furthermore, the HLA-B*14-associated protection against HIV disease progression is significantly greater for HLA-B*14:02 than for HLA-B*14:01, consistent with the superior antiviral efficacy of the HLA-B*14-EL9 response. Thus, although Gag-specific CD8+ T-cell responses may usually have greater anti-HIV efficacy, factors independent of protein specificity, including functional avidity of individual responses, are also critically important to immune control of HIV.IMPORTANCE In HIV infection, although cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) play a potentially critical role in eradication of viral reservoirs, the features that constitute an effective response remain poorly defined. We focus on HLA-B*14, unique among HLAs associated with control of HIV in that the dominant CTL response is Env specific, not Gag specific. We demonstrate that Env-specific HLA-B*14-restricted activity is substantially more efficacious than the subdominant HLA-B*14-restricted Gag response. Env immunodominance over Gag and strong Env-mediated selection pressure on HIV are observed only in subjects expressing HLA-B*14:02, and not HLA-B*14:01. This reflects the increased functional avidity of the Env response over Gag, substantially more marked for HLA-B*14:02. Finally, we show that HLA-B*14:02 is significantly more strongly associated with viremic control than HLA-B*14:01. These findings indicate that, although Gag-specific CTL may usually have greater anti-HIV efficacy than Env responses, factors independent of protein specificity, including functional avidity, may carry greater weight in mediating effective control of HIV.

Role of HIV-specific CD8+ T cells in pediatric HIV cure strategies after widespread early viral escape

Recent studies have suggested greater HIV cure potential among infected children than adults. A major obstacle to HIV eradication in adults is that the viral reservoir is largely comprised of HIV-specific cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) escape variants. We here evaluate the potential for CTL in HIV-infected slow-progressor children to play an effective role in "shock-and-kill" cure strategies. Two distinct subgroups of children were identified on the basis of viral load. Unexpectedly, in both groups, as in adults, HIV-specific CTL drove the selection of escape variants across a range of epitopes within the first weeks of infection. However, in HIV-infected children, but not adults, de novo autologous variant-specific CTL responses were generated, enabling the pediatric immune system to "corner" the virus. Thus, even when escape variants are selected in early infection, the capacity in children to generate variant-specific anti-HIV CTL responses maintains the potential for CTL to contribute to effective shock-and-kill cure strategies in pediatric HIV infection.

In vivo virulence of MHC-adapted AIDS virus serially-passaged through MHC-mismatched hosts

CD8⁺ T-cell responses exert strong suppressive pressure on HIV replication and select for viral escape mutations. Some of these major histocompatibility complex class I (MHC-I)-associated mutations result in reduction of in vitro viral replicative capacity. While these mutations can revert after viral transmission to MHC-I-disparate hosts, recent studies have suggested that these MHC-I-associated mutations accumulate in populations and make viruses less pathogenic in vitro. Here, we directly show an increase in the in vivo virulence of an MHC-I-adapted virus serially-passaged through MHC-I-mismatched hosts in a macaque AIDS model despite a reduction in in vitro viral fitness. The first passage simian immunodeficiency virus (1pSIV) obtained 1 year after SIVmac239 infection in a macaque possessing a protective MHC-I haplotype 90-120-Ia was transmitted into 90-120-Ia^- macaques, whose plasma 1 year post-infection was transmitted into other 90-120-Ia^- macaques to obtain the third passage SIV (3pSIV). Most of the 90-120-Ia-associated mutations selected in 1pSIV did not revert even in 3pSIV. 3pSIV showed lower in vitro viral fitness but induced persistent viremia in 90-120-Ia^- macaques. Remarkably, 3pSIV infection in 90-120-Ia⁺ macaques resulted in significantly higher viral loads and reduced survival compared to wild-type SIVmac239. These results indicate that MHC-I-adapted SIVs serially-transmitted through MHC-I-mismatched hosts can have higher virulence in MHC-I-matched hosts despite their lower in vitro viral fitness. This study suggests that multiply-passaged HIVs could result in loss of HIV-specific CD8⁺ T cell responses in human populations and the in vivo pathogenic potential of these escaped viruses may be enhanced.

CD8⁺ T-cell responses exert considerable control over replication of HIV and select for viral escape mutations. Recent studies have suggested that these major histocompatibility complex class I (MHC-I)-associated mutations accumulate in populations and make viruses less pathogenic in vitro. Other studies have shown that some of these escape mutations can revert after passage to MHC-I-disparate hosts. In an attempt to reconcile these apparently conflicting results, we serially passaged a virus isolate through MHC-I-mismatched hosts in the macaque AIDS model of simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) infection. Here we show an increase in the in vivo virulence of an MHC-I-adapted virus despite a reduction in in vitro viral replication capacity. Only a few of the selected escape mutations reverted after transmission to MHC-I-disparate recipients. Results clearly showed that MHC-I-adapted SIVs that have been serially-transmitted through MHC-I-mismatched hosts can have higher in vivo virulence in MHC-I-matched hosts despite their lower in vitro viral fitness. This study suggests that HIVs may become less sensitive to CD8⁺ T cell responses and could have increased in vivo virulence by adaptation to MHC-I in human populations.

Detecting signatures of past pathogen selection on human HLA loci: are there needles in the haystack?

Human leucocyte antigens (HLAs) are responsible for the display of peptide fragments for recognition by T-cell receptors. The gene family encoding them is thus integral to human adaptive immunity, and likely to be under strong pathogen selection. Despite this, it has proved difficult to demonstrate specific examples of pathogen-HLA coevolution. Selection from multiple pathogens simultaneously could explain why the evolutionary signatures of particular pathogens on HLAs have proved elusive. Here, we present an individual-based model of HLA evolution in the presence of two mortality-causing pathogens. We demonstrate that it is likely that individual pathogen species causing high mortality have left recognizable signatures on the HLA genomic region, despite more than one pathogen being present. Such signatures are likely to exist at the whole-population level, and involve haplotypic combinations of HLA genes rather than single loci.

Host genetic variation and HIV disease: from mapping to mechanism

This review aims to provide a summary of current knowledge of host genetic effects on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease. Mapping of simple single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) has been largely successful in HIV, but more complex genetic associations involving haplotypic or epigenetic variation, for example, remain elusive. Mechanistic insights explaining SNP associations are incomplete, but continue to be forthcoming. The number of robust immunogenetic correlates of HIV is modest and their discovery mostly predates the genome-wide era. Nevertheless, genome-wide evaluations have nicely validated the impact of HLA and CCR5 variants on HIV disease, and importantly, made clear the many false positive associations that were previously suggested by studies using the candidate gene approach. We describe how multiple HIV outcome measures such as acquisition, viral control, and immune decline have been studied in adults and in children, but that collectively these identify only the two replicable loci responsible for modifying HIV disease, CCR5, and HLA. Recent heritability estimates in this disease corroborate the modest impact of genetic determinants and their oligogenic nature. While the mechanism of protection afforded by genetic variants that diminish CCR5 expression is clear, new aspects of HLA class I-mediated protection continue to be uncovered. We describe how these genetic findings have enhanced insights into immunobiology, been clinically translated into CCR5 antagonists, allowed prioritization of antigens for vaccination efforts, and identified targets for genome-editing interventions. Finally, we describe how studies of genetically complex parts of the genome using new tools may begin revealing additional correlates.

Viral genetic variation accounts for a third of variability in HIV-1 set-point viral load in Europe

HIV-1 set-point viral load-the approximately stable value of viraemia in the first years of chronic infection-is a strong predictor of clinical outcome and is highly variable across infected individuals. To better understand HIV-1 pathogenesis and the evolution of the viral population, we must quantify the heritability of set-point viral load, which is the fraction of variation in this phenotype attributable to viral genetic variation. However, current estimates of heritability vary widely, from 6% to 59%. Here we used a dataset of 2,028 seroconverters infected between 1985 and 2013 from 5 European countries (Belgium, Switzerland, France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom) and estimated the heritability of set-point viral load at 31% (CI 15%-43%). Specifically, heritability was measured using models of character evolution describing how viral load evolves on the phylogeny of whole-genome viral sequences. In contrast to previous studies, (i) we measured viral loads using standardized assays on a sample collected in a strict time window of 6 to 24 months after infection, from which the viral genome was also sequenced; (ii) we compared 2 models of character evolution, the classical "Brownian motion" model and another model ("Ornstein-Uhlenbeck") that includes stabilising selection on viral load; (iii) we controlled for covariates, including age and sex, which may inflate estimates of heritability; and (iv) we developed a goodness of fit test based on the correlation of viral loads in cherries of the phylogenetic tree, showing that both models of character evolution fit the data well. An overall heritability of 31% (CI 15%-43%) is consistent with other studies based on regression of viral load in donor-recipient pairs. Thus, about a third of variation in HIV-1 virulence is attributable to viral genetic variation.

Recent advances in understanding HIV evolution

The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) evolves rapidly owing to the combined activity of error-prone reverse transcriptase, recombination, and short generation times, leading to extensive viral diversity both within and between hosts. This diversity is a major contributing factor in the failure of the immune system to eradicate the virus and has important implications for the development of suitable drugs and vaccines to combat infection. This review will discuss the recent technological advances that have shed light on HIV evolution and will summarise emerging concepts in this field.

Effects of contact structure on the transient evolution of HIV virulence

Early in an epidemic, high densities of susceptible hosts select for relatively high parasite virulence; later in the epidemic, lower susceptible densities select for lower virulence. Thus over the course of a typical epidemic the average virulence of parasite strains increases initially, peaks partway through the epidemic, then declines again. However, precise quantitative outcomes, such as the peak virulence reached and its timing, may depend sensitively on epidemiological details. Fraser et al. proposed a model for the eco-evolutionary dynamics of HIV that incorporates the tradeoffs between transmission and virulence (mediated by set-point viral load, SPVL) and their heritability between hosts. Their model used implicit equations to capture the effects of partnership dynamics that are at the core of epidemics of sexually transmitted diseases. Our models combine HIV virulence tradeoffs with a range of contact models, explicitly modeling partnership formation and dissolution and allowing for individuals to transmit disease outside of partnerships. We assess summary statistics such as the peak virulence (corresponding to the maximum value of population mean log₁₀ SPVL achieved throughout the epidemic) across models for a range of parameters applicable to the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. Although virulence trajectories are broadly similar across models, the timing and magnitude of the virulence peak vary considerably. Previously developed implicit models predicted lower virulence and slower progression at the peak (a maximum of 3.5 log₁₀ SPVL) compared both to more realistic models and to simple random-mixing models with no partnership structure at all (both with a maximum of ≈ 4.7 log₁₀ SPVL). In this range of models, the simplest random-mixing structure best approximates the most realistic model; this surprising outcome occurs because the dominance of extra-pair contact in the realistic model swamps the effects of partnership structure.

Pathogens such as HIV can evolve rapidly when the environment changes. One important aspect of a pathogen’s environment is the probability that an infectious contact (a sneeze for a respiratory disease, or an unprotected sex act for a sexually transmitted disease) encounters an uninfected person and thus has a chance to transmit the pathogen. As an epidemic grows the number of uninfected people shrinks, changing evolutionary pressures on the pathogen. While researchers have used models to explore pathogen evolution during epidemics, their models usually neglect important processes such as people entering and leaving sexual partnerships. We compared several evolutionary models for HIV that include partnership dynamics as well as sexual contact outside of stable partnerships. Models of intermediate complexity predicted lower virulence midway through the epidemic (a minimum of 15 years to progress to AIDS) than either more realistic models or simple models with no partnership structure (both with a minimum of 7.25 years to progress to AIDS), because random sexual contacts tended to wash out the effects of stable partnerships. Researchers trying to predict the evolution of pathogens must try to understand the implications of their modeling choices; models of intermediate complexity may not produce intermediate conclusions.

Replication Capacity of Viruses from Acute Infection Drives HIV-1 Disease Progression

The viral genotype has been shown to play an important role in HIV pathogenesis following transmission. However, the viral phenotypic properties that contribute to disease progression remain unclear. Most studies have been limited to the evaluation of Gag function in the context of a recombinant virus backbone. Using this approach, important biological information may be lost, making the evaluation of viruses obtained during acute infection, representing the transmitted virus, a more biologically relevant model. Here, we evaluate the roles of viral infectivity and the replication capacity of viruses from acute infection in disease progression in women who seroconverted in the CAPRISA 004 tenofovir microbicide trial. We show that viral replication capacity, but not viral infectivity, correlates with the set point viral load (Spearman r = 0.346; P = 0.045) and that replication capacity (hazard ratio [HR] = 4.52; P = 0.01) can predict CD4 decline independently of the viral load (HR = 2.9; P = 0.004) or protective HLA alleles (HR = 0.61; P = 0.36). We further demonstrate that Gag-Pro is not the main driver of this association, suggesting that additional properties of the transmitted virus play a role in disease progression. Finally, we find that although viruses from the tenofovir arm were 2-fold less infectious, they replicated at rates similar to those of viruses from the placebo arm. This indicates that the use of tenofovir gel did not select for viral variants with higher replication capacity. Overall, this study supports a strong influence of the replication capacity in acute infection on disease progression, potentially driven by interaction of multiple genes rather than a dominant role of the major structural gene gagIMPORTANCE HIV disease progression is known to differ between individuals, and defining which fraction of this variation can be attributed to the virus is important both clinically and epidemiologically. In this study, we show that the replication capacity of viruses isolated during acute infection predicts subsequent disease progression and drives CD4 decline independently of the viral load. This provides further support for the hypothesis that the replication capacity of the transmitted virus determines the initial damage to the immune system, setting the pace for later disease progression. However, we did not find evidence that the major structural gene gag drives this correlation, highlighting the importance of other genes in determining disease progression.

Modelling the evolution of HIV-1 virulence in response to imperfect therapy and prophylaxis

Average HIV-1 virulence appears to have evolved in different directions in different host populations since antiretroviral therapy first became available, and models predict that HIV drugs can select for either higher or lower virulence, depending on how treatment is administered. However, HIV virulence evolution in response to "leaky" therapy (treatment that imperfectly suppresses viral replication) and the use of preventive drugs (pre-exposure prophylaxis) has not been explored. Using adaptive dynamics, we show that higher virulence can evolve when antiretroviral therapy is imperfectly effective and that this evolution erodes some of the long-term clinical and epidemiological benefits of HIV treatment. The introduction of pre-exposure prophylaxis greatly reduces infection prevalence, but can further amplify virulence evolution when it, too, is leaky. Increasing the uptake rate of these imperfect interventions increases selection for higher virulence and can lead to counterintuitive increases in infection prevalence in some scenarios. Although populations almost always fare better with access to interventions than without, untreated individuals could experience particularly poor clinical outcomes when virulence evolves. These findings predict that antiretroviral drugs may have underappreciated evolutionary consequences, but that maximizing drug efficacy can prevent this evolutionary response. We suggest that HIV virulence evolution should be closely monitored as access to interventions continues to improve.

Post-treatment control or treated controllers? Viral remission in treated and untreated primary HIV infection

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text

Objective(s):

An HIV cure will impose aviraemia that is sustained following the withdrawal of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Understanding the efficacy of novel interventions aimed at curing HIV requires characterization of both natural viral control and the effect of ART on viral control after treatment interruption.

Design:

Analysis of transient viral control in recent seroconverters in the Short Pulse AntiRetroviral Therapy at Acute Seroconversion trial.

Methods:

We compared untreated and treated HIV seroconverters (n = 292) and identified periods of control (plasma HIV RNA < 400 copies/ml for ≥16 weeks off therapy) in 7.9% of ART-naive participants, and in 12.0% overall. HIV DNA was measured by qPCR, and HIV-specific CD8⁺ responses were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent spot assay (ELISpot). T-cell activation and exhaustion were measured by flow cytometry.

Results:

At baseline, future controllers had lower HIV DNA, lower plasma HIV RNA, higher CD4⁺ : CD8⁺ ratios (all P < 0.001) and higher CD4⁺ cell counts (P < 0.05) than noncontrollers. Among controllers, the only difference between the untreated and those who received ART was higher baseline HIV RNA in the latter (P = 0.003), supporting an added ART effect.

Conclusion:

Consideration of spontaneous remission in untreated individuals will be critical to avoid overestimating the effect size of new interventions used in HIV cure studies.

A transmission-virulence evolutionary trade-off explains attenuation of HIV-1 in Uganda

Evolutionary theory hypothesizes that intermediate virulence maximizes pathogen fitness as a result of a trade-off between virulence and transmission, but empirical evidence remains scarce. We bridge this gap using data from a large and long-standing HIV-1 prospective cohort, in Uganda. We use an epidemiological-evolutionary model parameterised with this data to derive evolutionary predictions based on analysis and detailed individual-based simulations. We robustly predict stabilising selection towards a low level of virulence, and rapid attenuation of the virus. Accordingly, set-point viral load, the most common measure of virulence, has declined in the last 20 years. Our model also predicts that subtype A is slowly outcompeting subtype D, with both subtypes becoming less virulent, as observed in the data. Reduction of set-point viral loads should have resulted in a 20% reduction in incidence, and a three years extension of untreated asymptomatic infection, increasing opportunities for timely treatment of infected individuals.

Role of CD8+ T Cells in the Selection of HIV-1 Immune Escape Mutations

Human immunodeficiency virus type-1 (HIV-1) infection represents one of the biggest public health problems worldwide. The immune response, mainly the effector mechanisms mediated by CD8⁺ T cells, induces the selection of mutations that allows the virus to escape the immune control. These mutations are generally selected within CD8⁺ T cell epitopes restricted to human leukocyte antigen class I (HLA-I), leading to a decrease in the presentation and recognition of the epitope, decreasing the activation of CD8⁺ T cells. However, these mutations may also affect cellular processing of the peptide or recognition by the T cell receptor. Escape mutations often carry a negative impact in viral fitness that is partially or totally compensated by the selection of compensatory mutations. The selection of either escape mutations or compensatory mutations may negatively affect the course of the infection. In addition, these mutations are a major barrier for the development of new therapeutic strategies focused on the induction of specific CD8⁺ T cell responses.

The impact of antiretroviral therapy on population-level virulence evolution of HIV-1

In HIV-infected patients, an individual's set point viral load (SPVL) strongly predicts disease progression. Some think that SPVL is evolving, indicating that the virulence of the virus may be changing, but the data are not consistent. In addition, the widespread use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has the potential to drive virulence evolution. We develop a simple deterministic model designed to answer the following questions: what are the expected patterns of virulence change in the initial decades of an epidemic? Could administration of ART drive changes in virulence evolution and, what is the potential size and direction of this effect? We find that even without ART we would not expect monotonic changes in average virulence. Transient decreases in virulence following the peak of an epidemic are not necessarily indicative of eventual evolution to avirulence. In the short term, we would expect widespread ART to cause limited downward pressure on virulence. In the long term, the direction of the effect is determined by a threshold condition, which we define. We conclude that, given the surpassing benefits of ART to the individual and in reducing onward transmission, virulence evolution considerations need have little bearing on how we treat.

Evolution of HIV virulence in response to widespread scale up of antiretroviral therapy: a modeling study

There are global increases in the use of HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART), guided by clinical benefits of early ART initiation and the efficacy of treatment as prevention of transmission. Separately, it has been shown theoretically and empirically that HIV virulence can evolve over time; observed virulence levels may reflect an adaptive balance between infected lifespan and per-contact transmission rate. However, the potential effects of widespread ART usage on HIV virulence are unknown. To predict these effects, we used an agent-based stochastic model to simulate evolutionary trends in HIV virulence, using set point viral load as a proxy for virulence. We calibrated our model to prevalence and incidence trends of South Africa. We explored two distinct ART scenarios: (1) ART initiation based on HIV-infected individuals reaching a CD4 count threshold; and (2) ART initiation based on individual time elapsed since HIV infection (a scenario that mimics "universal testing and treatment" (UTT) aspirations). In each case, we considered a range in population uptake of ART. We found that HIV virulence is generally unchanged in scenarios of CD4-based initiation. However, with ART initiation based on time since infection, virulence can increase moderately within several years of ART rollout, under high coverage levels and early treatment initiation (albeit within the context of epidemics that are rapidly decreasing in size). Sensitivity analyses suggested the impact of ART on virulence is relatively insensitive to model calibration. Our modeling study suggests that increasing HIV virulence driven by UTT is likely not a major public health concern, but should be monitored in sentinel surveillance, in a manner similar to transmitted resistance to antiretroviral drugs.

Prospects for HIV control in South Africa: a model-based analysis

Background

The goal of virtual elimination of horizontal and mother-to-child HIV transmission in South Africa (SA) has been proposed, but there have been few systematic investigations of which interventions are likely to be most critical to reducing HIV incidence.

Objective

This study aims to evaluate SA's potential to achieve virtual elimination targets and to identify which interventions will be most critical to achieving HIV incidence reductions.

Design

A mathematical model was developed to simulate the population-level impact of different HIV interventions in SA. Probability distributions were specified to represent uncertainty around 32 epidemiological parameters that could be influenced by interventions, and correlation coefficients (r) were calculated to assess the sensitivity of the adult HIV incidence rates and mother-to-child transmission rates (2015–2035) to each epidemiological parameter.

Results

HIV incidence in SA adults (ages 15–49) is expected to decline from 1.4% in 2011–2012 to 0.29% by 2035 (95% CI: 0.10–0.62%). The parameters most strongly correlated with future adult HIV incidence are the rate of viral suppression after initiating antiretroviral treatment (ART) (r=−0.56), the level of condom use in non-marital relationships (r=−0.40), the phase-in of intensified risk-reduction counselling for HIV-positive adults (r=0.29), the uptake of medical male circumcision (r=−0.24) and the phase-in of universal ART eligibility (r=0.22). The paediatric HIV parameters most strongly associated with mother-to-child transmission rates are the relative risk of transmission through breastfeeding when the mother is receiving ART (r=0.70) and the rate of ART initiation during pregnancy (r=−0.16).

Conclusions

The virtual elimination target of a 0.1% incidence rate in adults will be difficult to achieve. Interventions that address the infectiousness of patients after ART initiation will be particularly critical to achieving long-term HIV incidence declines in South Africa.

A trend towards increasing viral load in newly diagnosed HIV-infected inpatients in southeast China

Peripheral blood viral load is an important indicator of viral production and clearance. Previous studies have suggested that viral load might predict the rate of decrease in CD4+ cell count and progression to AIDS and death. Here, we conducted a retrospective analysis of the trends in HIV-1 viral load in southeast China. Among inpatients newly diagnosed with HIV infection, we found that viral load has increased over the past decade from 4·20 log10 copies/ml in 2002 to 6·61 log10 copies/ml in 2014, with a mean increase of 0·19 log10 copies/ml each year. However, the CD4+ cell count was stable and insensitive to changes in viral load. Thus, increasing viral load appears to be an emerging trend in newly diagnosed HIV-infected inpatients.

Impact of pre-adapted HIV transmission

Human leukocyte antigen class I (HLA)-restricted CD8(+) T lymphocyte (CTL) responses are crucial to HIV-1 control. Although HIV can evade these responses, the longer-term impact of viral escape mutants remains unclear, as these variants can also reduce intrinsic viral fitness. To address this, we here developed a metric to determine the degree of HIV adaptation to an HLA profile. We demonstrate that transmission of viruses that are pre-adapted to the HLA molecules expressed in the recipient is associated with impaired immunogenicity, elevated viral load and accelerated CD4(+) T cell decline. Furthermore, the extent of pre-adaptation among circulating viruses explains much of the variation in outcomes attributed to the expression of certain HLA alleles. Thus, viral pre-adaptation exploits 'holes' in the immune response. Accounting for these holes may be key for vaccine strategies seeking to elicit functional responses from viral variants, and to HIV cure strategies that require broad CTL responses to achieve successful eradication of HIV reservoirs.