People have shaped most of terrestrial nature for at least 12,000 years

Enhancing biodiversity: historical ecology and biogeography of the Santa Catalina Island ground squirrel, Otospermophilus beecheyi nesioticus

People have influenced Earth's biodiversity for millennia, including numerous introductions of domestic and wild species to islands. Here, we explore the origins and ecology of the Santa Catalina Island ground squirrel (SCIGS; Otospermophilus beecheyi nesioticus), one of only five endemic terrestrial mammals found on California's Santa Catalina Island. We synthesized all records of archaeological/palaeontological SCIGS, conducted radiocarbon dating and stable isotope analysis of the potentially earliest SCIGS remains and performed genetic analysis of modern SCIGS. Squirrels were not identified in island palaeontological deposits, but at least 12 island archaeological sites contain SCIGS bones, including some that are butchered or burned. All directly dated SCIGS bones are Late Holocene in age and younger than approximately 1290 cal BP. The first mitochondrial genome for modern Otospermophilus beecheyi and 15 modern SCIGS mitogenomes document at least one introduction of squirrels. Stable isotope data indicate variable SCIGS diets and potential subsidies from marine environments to terrestrial plants consumed by some individuals. We cannot rule out a natural overwater dispersal, but the earliest SCIGS remains post-date the earliest evidence for people by several millennia and, along with other lines of evidence, support a human-assisted translocation of squirrels during the Late Holocene. These data illustrate the important role of Indigenous people in shaping and enhancing island biodiversity and ecology around the world.

Pollinator, pollen, and cultivar identity drive crop quality

Animal pollination enhances a third of global food production, yet the roles of pollinator, pollen, and cultivar identity in shaping crop quality, such as nutritional, sensory, and marketing value, are underexplored. Crop quality often depends on pollinator movement patterns, which vary with cultivar selection and spatial arrangement, pollen donor identity, and landscape context. Transfer of the right pollen between cultivars may fail, as pollen is often not transported far, even by highly dispersive pollinators, reducing cross-pollination and crop quality. Both pollinator identity and complementary spatiotemporal activity of diverse pollinators can shape crop quality. Here, we argue that promoting crop quality needs better understanding of species-specific pollinator behaviour and cultivar distribution patterns, rather than only focusing on enhancing pollinator densities.

A brief history of primate research in the Ndoki forest

The Nouabalé-Ndoki National Park (NNNP) in Republic of Congo has become a beacon for conservation in Central Africa. This manuscript documents the arrival of primatologists, the establishment of field stations and major discoveries in primate behavior and ecology. Field stations were strategically established to study primate behavior in a variety of different contexts from stationary platforms to forest follows of habituated groups. The implementation of new technologies and analyses have also been a hallmark of research at Ndoki. Scientists are shaping a new era in primatology at NNNP by building on past successes and promoting the next generation of Congolese conservationists to address environmental challenges. Results have proven crucial in discussions with government and industry and led to conservation gains such as the inclusion of the intact forests of the Goualougo and Djéké Triangles into the NNNP. The research stations have also become essential for developing a long-term certified sustainable international gorilla tourism program. Despite the many advancements for conservation such as increased protection of forests, development of internationally recognized protocols and large-scale capacity building initiatives, there are reasons for considerable concern in the near- and long-term for primates and their forest habitats in the Ndoki landscape. To address these concerns, we emphasize the long history of forming partnerships with local communities. We also discuss shared overlap featuring multicultural and environmental use of forest resources that is likely to be crucial in championing the conservation of the Ndoki forests for the next 25 years and beyond.

Accelerated farmland bird population declines in European countries after their recent EU accession

Agricultural intensification is a major driver of global biodiversity loss. In Europe, intensification progressed over the 20th century and was accelerated by instruments of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy. Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries standing outside the EU until the beginning of the 21st century employed less intensive farming and are considered one of the continent's farmland biodiversity strongholds. Their recent EU accession might be either viewed as a threat to farmland biodiversity due to the availability of funds to increase agricultural production or as an opportunity to implement conservation measures aimed to preserve biodiversity. Here we assessed these possibilities using long-term monitoring data on farmland bird populations in seven CEE countries. We tested whether mean relative abundance and population trends changed after countries' EU accession, and whether such changes also occurred in agricultural management and conservation measures. Both agricultural intensity and spending for agri-environmental and climatic schemes increased when the CEE countries joined the EU. At the same time, farmland bird populations started to decline and their relative abundance was lower after than before EU accession. In addition, increases in fertilizer application were negatively associated with annual changes in relative farmland bird population sizes, indicating a negative impact of intensive agriculture. Taken together, these results indicate that despite the great power of the EU's environmental legislation to improve the population status of species at risk, this does not apply to farmland birds. In their case, the adverse impacts of agricultural intensification most likely overrode the possible benefits of conservation measures. To secure this region as one of the continent's farmland biodiversity strongholds, policy and management actions are urgently needed.

Toward defining the Anthropocene onset using a rapid increase in anthropogenic fingerprints in global geological archives

One of the remaining issues regarding the Anthropocene is the lack of stratigraphic evidence indicating when the cumulative human pressure from the early Holocene began to fundamentally change the Earth system. Herein, we compile anthropogenic fingerprints from various high-precision-dated proxy records for 137 global sites to determine the age of the unprecedented surge in these records over the last 7700 y. The cumulative number of fingerprints revealed an unprecedented surge in diverse anthropogenic fingerprints starting in 1952 ± 3 CE, corresponding to the onset of the Great Acceleration. Notably, the period from 1953 to 1958 CE saw a nearly simultaneous surge in fingerprints across all regions, including Antarctica, the Arctic, East Asia, Europe, North America, and Oceania. This synchronous upsurge reflects the moment when human impacts led to rapid transformations in various natural processes and cycles, with humans becoming a geological force capable of inscribing abundant and diverse anthropogenic fingerprints in global strata. Following this global fingerprint explosion, profound planetary-scale changes, including deviations from the established natural climatic conditions, begin. This unprecedented surge in anthropogenic signals worldwide suggests that human influences started to match many natural forces controlling the processes and cycles and overwhelm some of the functioning of the Earth system around 1952.

Archaeogenomic analysis of Chesapeake Atlantic sturgeon illustrates shaping of its populations in recovery from severe overexploitation

Atlantic sturgeon (Acipenser oxyrinchus ssp. oxyrinchus) has been a food resource in North America for millennia. However, industrial-scale fishing activities following the establishment of European colonies led to multiple collapses of sturgeon stocks, driving populations such as those in the Chesapeake area close to extinction. While recent conservation efforts have been successful in restoring census numbers, little is known regarding genomic consequences of the population bottleneck. Here, we characterize its effect on present-day population structuring and genomic diversity in James River populations. To establish a pre-collapse baseline, we collected genomic data from archaeological remains from Middle Woodland Maycock's Point (c. 200-900 CE), as well as Jamestown and Williamsburg colonial sites. Demographic analysis of recovered mitogenomes reveals a historical collapse in effective population size, also reflected in diminished present-day mitogenomic diversity and structure. We infer that James River fall- and spring-spawning populations likely took shape in recent years of population recovery, where genetic drift enhanced the degree of population structure. The mismatch of mitogenomic lineages to geographical-seasonal groupings implies that despite their homing instinct and differential adaptation manifested as season-specific behaviour, colonization of new rivers has been a key ecological strategy for Atlantic sturgeon over evolutionary timescales.

From consumption to context: assessing poverty and inequality across diverse socio-ecological systems in Ghana

Local social and ecological contexts influence the experience of poverty and inequality in a number of ways that include shaping livelihood opportunities and determining the available infrastructure, services and environmental resources, as well as people's capacity to use them. The metrics used to define poverty and inequality function to guide local and international development policy but how these interact with the local ecological contexts is not well explored. We use a social-ecological systems (SES) lens to empirically examine how context relates to various measures of human well-being at a national scale in Ghana. Using a novel dataset constructed from the 100% Ghanian Census, we examine poverty and inequality at a fine population level across and within multiple dimensions of well-being. First, we describe how well-being varies within different Ghanian SES contexts. Second, we ask whether monetary consumption acts a good indicator for well-being across these contexts. Third, we examine measures of inequality in various metrics across SES types. We find consumption distributions differ across SES types and are markedly distinct from regional distributions based on political boundaries. Rates of improved well-being are positively correlated with consumption levels in all SES types, but correlations are weaker in less-developed contexts like, rangelands and wildlands. Finally, while consumption inequality is quite consistent across SES types, inequality in other measures of living standards (housing, water, sanitation, etc) increases dramatically in SES types as population density and infrastructural development decreases. We advocate that SES types should be recognized as distinct contexts in which actions to mitigate poverty and inequality should better incorporate the challenges unique to each.

Latitudinal gradients in the phylogenetic assembly of angiosperms in Asia during the Holocene

Spatio-temporal assessment of phylogenetic diversity gradients during the Holocene (past 12,000 years) provides an opportunity for a deeper understanding of the dynamics of species co-occurrence patterns under environmental fluctuations. Using two robust metrics of phylogenetic dispersion (PD) and 99 fossil pollen sequences containing 6557 samples/assemblages, we analyse spatio-temporal variation in PD of angiosperms and its relationship with Holocene climate in central Asia. Overall, PD throughout the Holocene decreases linearly with increasing latitude, except for a rise in mean nearest taxon distance from ca. 25 to 35° N. This indicates that phylogenetically divergent taxa decrease progressively with increasing latitude, leaving more phylogenetically closely related taxa in the assemblages, thereby increasing phylogenetic relatedness among the co-occurring taxa. The latitudinal gradient of PD has not been consistent during the Holocene, and this temporal variation is concordant with the Holocene climate dynamics. In general, profound temporal changes in the latitudinal PD toward higher latitudes implies that the major environmental changes during the Holocene have driven considerable spatio-temporal changes in the phylogenetic assembly of high-latitude angiosperm assemblages. Our results suggest that environmental filtering and the tendency of taxa and lineages to retain ancestral ecological features and geographic distributions (phylogenetic niche conservatism) are the main mechanisms underlying the phylogenetic assembly of angiosperms along the climate-latitudinal gradient. Ongoing environmental changes may pose future profound phylogenetic changes in high-latitude plant assemblages, which are adapted to harsh environmental conditions, and therefore are phylogenetically less dispersed (more conservative or clustered).

Floristic diversity and its relationships with human land use varied regionally during the Holocene

Humans have caused growing levels of ecosystem and diversity changes at a global scale in recent centuries but longer-term diversity trends and how they are affected by human impacts are less well understood. Analysing data from 64,305 pollen samples from 1,763 pollen records revealed substantial community changes (turnover) and reductions in diversity (richness and evenness) in the first ~1,500 to ~4,000 years of the Holocene epoch (starting 11,700 years ago). Turnover and diversity generally increased thereafter, starting ~6,000 to ~1,000 years ago, although the timings, magnitudes and even directions of these changes varied among continents, biomes and sites. Here, modelling these diversity changes, we find that most metrics of biodiversity change are associated with human impacts (anthropogenic land-cover change estimates for the last 8,000 years), often positively but the magnitudes, timings and sometimes directions of associations differed among continents and biomes and sites also varied. Once-forested parts of the world tended to exhibit biodiversity increases while open areas tended to decline. These regionally specific relationships between humans and floristic diversity highlight that human-biodiversity relationships have generated positive diversity responses in some locations and negative responses in others, for over 8,000 years.

Mixing on- and off-field measures for biodiversity conservation

The continuing biodiversity losses through agricultural expansion and intensification are dramatic. We argue that a mix of on- and off-field measures is needed, overcoming the false dichotomy of the land sharing-sparing debate. Protected land is essential for global biodiversity, while spillover between farmed and natural land is key to reducing species extinctions. This is particularly effective in landscapes with small and diversified fields. Focusing only on protected land fails to conserve a wealth of species, which often provide major ecosystem services such as pest control, pollination, and cultural benefits. On-field measures must minimise yield losses to prevent increased demand for food imports from biodiversity-rich regions, requiring enforcement of high social-ecological land-use standards to ensure a good life for all.

Effects of perceptions of forest change and intergroup competition on community-based conservation behaviors

Approximately one quarter of the earth's population directly harvests natural resources to meet their daily needs. These individuals are disproportionately required to alter their behaviors in response to increasing climatic variability and global biodiversity loss. Much of the ever-ambitious global conservation agenda relies on the voluntary uptake of conservation behaviors in such populations. Thus, it is critical to understand how such individuals perceive environmental change and use conservation practices as a tool to protect their well-being. We developed a participatory mapping activity to elicit spatially explicit perceptions of forest change and its drivers across 43 mangrove-dependent communities in Pemba, Tanzania. We administered this activity along with a questionnaire regarding conservation preferences and behaviors to 423 individuals across those 43 communities. We analyzed these data with a set of Bayesian hierarchical statistical models. Perceived cover loss in 50% of a community's mangrove area drove individuals to decrease proposed limits on fuelwood bundles from 2.74 (forest perceived as intact) to 2.37 if participants believed resultant gains in mangrove cover would not be stolen by outsiders. Conversely, individuals who believed their community mangrove forests were at high risk of theft loosened their proposed harvest limits from 1.26 to 2.75 bundles of fuelwood in response to the same perceived forest decline. High rates of intergroup competition and mangrove loss were thus driving a self-reinforcing increase in unsustainable harvesting preferences in community forests in this system. This finding demonstrates a mechanism by which increasing environmental decline may cause communities to forgo conservation practices, rather than adopt them, as is often assumed in much community-based conservation planning. However, we also found that when effective boundaries were present, individuals were willing to limit their own harvests to stem such perceived decline.

Overcoming confusion and stigma in habitat fragmentation research

Anthropogenic habitat loss is widely recognized as a primary environmental concern. By contrast, debates on the effects of habitat fragmentation persist. To facilitate overcoming these debates, here we: (i) review the state of the literature on habitat fragmentation, finding widespread confusion and stigma; (ii) identify consequences of this for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem management; and (iii) suggest ways in which research can move forward to resolve these problems. Confusion is evident from the 25 most-cited fragmentation articles published between 2017 and 2021. These articles use five distinct concepts of habitat fragmentation, only one of which clearly distinguishes habitat fragmentation from habitat area and other factors ('fragmentation per se'). Stigmatization is evident from our new findings that fragmentation papers are more charged with negative sentiments when compared to papers from other subfields in the environmental sciences, and that fragmentation papers with more negative sentiments are cited more. While most empirical studies of habitat fragmentation per se find neutral or positive effects on species and biodiversity outcomes, which implies that small habitat patches have a high cumulative value, confusion and stigma in reporting and discussing such results have led to suboptimal habitat protection policy. For example, government agencies, conservation organizations, and land trusts impose minimum habitat patch sizes on habitat protection. Given the high cumulative value of small patches, such policies mean that many opportunities for conservation are being missed. Our review highlights the importance of reducing confusion and stigma in habitat fragmentation research. To this end, we propose implementing study designs in which multiple sample landscapes are selected across independent gradients of habitat amount and fragmentation, measured as patch density. We show that such designs are possible for forest habitat across Earth's biomes. As such study designs are adopted, and as language becomes more precise, we expect that confusion and stigma in habitat fragmentation research will dissipate. We also expect important breakthroughs in understanding the situations where effects of habitat fragmentation per se are neutral, positive, or negative, and the reasons for these differences. Ultimately this will improve efficacy of area-based conservation policies, to the benefit of biodiversity and people.

Reconciling the EU forest, biodiversity, and climate strategies

Forests provide important ecosystem services (ESs), including climate change mitigation, local climate regulation, habitat for biodiversity, wood and non-wood products, energy, and recreation. Simultaneously, forests are increasingly affected by climate change and need to be adapted to future environmental conditions. Current legislation, including the European Union (EU) Biodiversity Strategy, EU Forest Strategy, and national laws, aims to protect forest landscapes, enhance ESs, adapt forests to climate change, and leverage forest products for climate change mitigation and the bioeconomy. However, reconciling all these competing demands poses a tremendous task for policymakers, forest managers, conservation agencies, and other stakeholders, especially given the uncertainty associated with future climate impacts. Here, we used process-based ecosystem modeling and robust multi-criteria optimization to develop forest management portfolios that provide multiple ESs across a wide range of climate scenarios. We included constraints to strictly protect 10% of Europe's land area and to provide stable harvest levels under every climate scenario. The optimization showed only limited options to improve ES provision within these constraints. Consequently, management portfolios suffered from low diversity, which contradicts the goal of multi-functionality and exposes regions to significant risk due to a lack of risk diversification. Additionally, certain regions, especially those in the north, would need to prioritize timber provision to compensate for reduced harvests elsewhere. This conflicts with EU LULUCF targets for increased forest carbon sinks in all member states and prevents an equal distribution of strictly protected areas, introducing a bias as to which forest ecosystems are more protected than others. Thus, coordinated strategies at the European level are imperative to address these challenges effectively. We suggest that the implementation of the EU Biodiversity Strategy, EU Forest Strategy, and targets for forest carbon sinks require complementary measures to alleviate the conflicting demands on forests.

Low human interest for the most at-risk reef fishes worldwide

Human interest in biodiversity is essential for effective conservation action but remains poorly quantified at large scales. Here, we investigated human interest for 2408 marine reef fishes using data obtained from online public databases and social media, summarized in two synthetic dimensions, research effort and public attention. Both dimensions are mainly related to geographic range size. Research effort is also linked to fishery importance, while public attention is more related to fish aesthetic value and aquarium trade importance. We also found a strong phylogenetic bias, with certain fish families receiving disproportional research effort and public attention. Most concerningly, species at the highest risk of extinction and those most vulnerable to future climate change tend to receive less research effort and public attention. Our results provide a lens through which examining the societal attention that species garner, with the ultimate goals to improve conservation strategies, research programs, and communication plans.

Connecting human behaviour, meaning and nature

Much of the discourse around climate change and the situation of diverse human societies and cultures in the Anthropocene focuses on responding to scientific understanding of the dynamics of the biosphere by adjusting existing institutional and organizational structures. Our emerging scientific understanding of human behaviour and the mechanisms that enable groups to achieve large-scale coordination and cooperation suggests that incrementally adjusting existing institutions and organizations will not be sufficient to confront current global-scale challenges. Specifically, the transaction costs of operating institutions to induce selfish rational actors to consider social welfare in their decision-making are too high. Rather, we highlight the importance of networks of shared stories that become real-imagined orders-that create context, meaning and shared purpose for framing decisions and guiding action. We explore imagined orders that have contributed to bringing global societies to where they are and propose elements of a science-informed imagined order essential to enabling societies to flourish in the Anthropocene biosphere. This article is part of the theme issue 'Bringing nature into decision-making'.

A case for stronger integration of physical landscape processes in conservation science and practice

I argue that the dynamic nature of contemporary, landscape-shaping (geomorphic) processes deserves more consideration in conservation science and practice. In an analysis of a sample of fundamental terms related to geomorphology and area-based conservation in the Web of Science, I found that the terms co-occurred in <2% of the analyzed entries (titles, abstracts, and keywords) from 2000 to 2020. This result is indicative of the rather peripheral attention that, more broadly, landscape-shaping processes seem to receive in the conservation literature. Among conservation scientists and practitioners, landforms that define the physical structure of habitat are often perceived as largely static, whereas the consideration of their dynamic adjustments to geomorphic processes is often limited to extreme events. I use examples derived from river-floodplain environments to illustrate strong, multifaceted, and reciprocal interactions between biota and various erosional and depositional processes. These ubiquitous interdependencies clearly demonstrate that geomorphic processes are an integral part of ecosystem dynamics at time scales relevant for conservation. Crucially, erosional and depositional processes modulate many environmental impacts of past and current anthropogenic activities. I conclude that the absence of a more explicit and widespread consideration of geomorphic processes in conservation science and practice is surprising and detrimental to their effectiveness. I call for bolstered efforts among the conservation and geoscience communities to better integrate landscape dynamics within the field of conservation. The rise of the ecosystem-based and social-ecological systems approaches to conservation and the growth of interdisciplinary geoscience branches (e.g., biogeomorphology, ecohydraulics, and geoconservation) will facilitate such an integration.

Projected future climatic forcing on the global distribution of vegetation types

Most emissions scenarios suggest temperature and precipitation regimes will change dramatically across the globe over the next 500 years. These changes will have large impacts on the biosphere, with species forced to migrate to follow their preferred environmental conditions, therefore moving and fragmenting ecosystems. However, most projections of the impacts of climate change only reach 2100, limiting our understanding of the temporal scope of climate impacts, and potentially impeding suitable adaptive action. To address this data gap, we model future climate change every 20 years from 2000 to 2500 CE, under different CO2 emissions scenarios, using a general circulation model. We then apply a biome model to these modelled climate futures, to investigate shifts in climatic forcing on vegetation worldwide, the feasibility of the migration required to enact these modelled vegetation changes, and potential overlap with human land use based on modern-day anthromes. Under a business-as-usual scenario, up to 40% of terrestrial area is expected to be suited to a different biome by 2500. Cold-adapted biomes, particularly boreal forest and dry tundra, are predicted to experience the greatest losses of suitable area. Without mitigation, these changes could have severe consequences both for global biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Towards a novel biosphere in 2300: rapid and extensive global and biome-wide climatic novelty in the Anthropocene

Recent climate change has effectively rewound the climate clock by approximately 120 000 years and is expected to reverse this clock a further 50 Myr by 2100. We aimed to answer two essential questions to better understand the changes in ecosystems worldwide owing to predicted climate change. Firstly, we identify the locations and time frames where novel ecosystems could emerge owing to climate change. Secondly, we aim to determine the extent to which biomes, in their current distribution, will experience an increase in climate-driven ecological novelty. To answer these questions, we analysed three perspectives on how climate changes could result in novel ecosystems in the near term (2100), medium (2200) and long term (2300). These perspectives included identifying areas where climate change could result in new climatic combinations, climate isoclines moving faster than species migration capacity and current environmental patterns being disaggregated. Using these metrics, we determined when and where novel ecosystems could emerge. Our analysis shows that unless rapid mitigation measures are taken, the coverage of novel ecosystems could be over 50% of the land surface by 2100 under all change scenarios. By 2300, the coverage of novel ecosystems could be above 80% of the land surface. At the biome scale, these changes could mean that over 50% of locations could shift towards novel ecosystems, with the majority seeing these changes in the next few decades. Our research shows that the impact of climate change on ecosystems is complex and varied, requiring global action to mitigate and adapt to these changes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Biodiversity dynamics and stewardship in a transforming biosphere'. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Navigating ecological novelty towards planetary stewardship: challenges and opportunities in biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere

Human-induced global changes, including anthropogenic climate change, biotic globalization, trophic downgrading and pervasive land-use intensification, are transforming Earth's biosphere, placing biodiversity and ecosystems at the forefront of unprecedented challenges. The Anthropocene, characterized by the importance of Homo sapiens in shaping the Earth system, necessitates a re-evaluation of our understanding and stewardship of ecosystems. This theme issue delves into the multifaceted challenges posed by the ongoing ecological planetary transformation and explores potential solutions across four key subthemes. Firstly, it investigates the functioning and stewardship of emerging novel ecosystems, emphasizing the urgent need to comprehend the dynamics of ecosystems under uncharted conditions. The second subtheme focuses on biodiversity projections under global change, recognizing the necessity of predicting ecological shifts in the Anthropocene. Importantly, the inherent uncertainties and the complexity of ecological responses to environmental stressors pose challenges for societal responses and for accurate projections of ecological change. The RAD framework (resist-accept-direct) is highlighted as a flexible yet nuanced decision-making tool that recognizes the need for adaptive approaches, providing insights for directing and adapting to Anthropocene dynamics while minimizing negative impacts. The imperative to extend our temporal perspective beyond 2100 is emphasized, given the irreversible changes already set in motion. Advancing methods to study ecosystem dynamics under rising biosphere novelty is the subject of the third subtheme. The fourth subtheme emphasizes the importance of integrating human perspectives into understanding, forecasting and managing novel ecosystems. Cultural diversity and biological diversity are intertwined, and the evolving relationship between humans and ecosystems offers lessons for future stewardship. Achieving planetary stewardship in the Anthropocene demands collaboration across scales and integration of ecological and societal perspectives, scalable approaches fit to changing, novel ecological conditions, as well as cultural innovation. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Trophic rewilding as a restoration approach under emerging novel biosphere conditions

Rewilding is a restoration approach that aims to promote self-regulating complex ecosystems by restoring non-human ecological processes while reducing human control and pressures. Rewilding is forward-looking in that it aims to enhance functionality for biodiversity, accepting and indeed promoting the dynamic nature of ecosystems, rather than fixating on static composition or structure. Rewilding is thus especially relevant in our epoch of increasingly novel biosphere conditions, driven by strong human-induced global change. Here, we explore this hypothesis in the context of trophic rewilding - the restoration of trophic complexity mediated by wild, large-bodied animals, known as 'megafauna'. This focus reflects the strong ecological impacts of large-bodied animals, their widespread loss during the last 50,000 years and their high diversity and ubiquity in the preceding 50 million years. Restoring abundant, diverse, wild-living megafauna is expected to promote vegetation heterogeneity, seed dispersal, nutrient cycling and biotic microhabitats. These are fundamental drivers of biodiversity and ecosystem function and are likely to gain importance for maintaining a biodiverse biosphere under increasingly novel ecological conditions. Non-native megafauna species may contribute to these effects as ecological surrogates of extinct species or by promoting ecological functionality within novel assemblages. Trophic rewilding has strong upscaling potential via population growth and expansion of wild fauna. It is likely to facilitate biotic adaptation to changing climatic conditions and resilience to ecosystem collapse, and to curb some negative impacts of globalization, notably the dominance of invasive alien plants. Finally, we discuss the complexities of realizing the biodiversity benefits that trophic rewilding offers under novel biosphere conditions in a heavily populated world.

Integrating forest restoration into land-use planning at large spatial scales

Forest restoration is being scaled up globally, carrying major expectations of environmental and societal benefits. Current discussions on ensuring the effectiveness of forest restoration are predominantly focused on the land under restoration per se. But this focus neglects the critical issue that land use and its drivers at larger spatial scales have strong implications for forest restoration outcomes, through the influence of landscape context and, importantly, potential off-site impacts of forest restoration that must be accounted for in measuring its effectiveness. To ensure intended restoration outcomes, it is crucial to integrate forest restoration into land-use planning at spatial scales large enough to account for - and address - these larger-scale influences, including the protection of existing native ecosystems. In this review, we highlight this thus-far neglected issue in conceptualizing forest restoration for the delivery of multiple desirable benefits regarding biodiversity and ecosystem services. We first make the case for the need to integrate forest restoration into large-scale land-use planning, by reviewing current evidence on the landscape-level influences and off-site impacts pertaining to forest restoration. We then discuss how science can guide the integration of forest restoration into large-scale land-use planning, by laying out key features of methodological frameworks required, reviewing the extent to which existing frameworks carry these features, and identifying methodological innovations needed to bridge the potential shortfall. Finally, we critically review the status of existing methods and data to identify future research efforts needed to advance these methodological innovations and, more broadly, the effective integration of forest restoration design into large-scale land-use planning.

Contributions of human cultures to biodiversity and ecosystem conservation

The expansion of globalized industrial societies is causing global warming, ecosystem degradation, and species and language extinctions worldwide. Mainstream conservation efforts still focus on nature protection strategies to revert this crisis, often overlooking the essential roles of Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities (IP&LC) in protecting biodiversity and ecosystems globally. Here we assess the scientific literature to identify relationships between biodiversity (including ecosystem diversity) and cultural diversity, and investigate how these connections may affect conservation outcomes in tropical lowland South America. Our assessment reveals a network of interactions and feedbacks between biodiversity and diverse IP&LC, suggesting interconnectedness and interdependencies from which multiple benefits to nature and societies emerge. We illustrate our findings with five case studies of successful conservation models, described as consolidated or promising 'social-ecological hope spots', that show how engagement with IP&LC of various cultures may be the best hope for biodiversity and ecosystem conservation, particularly when aligned with science and technology. In light of these five inspiring cases, we argue that conservation science and policies need to recognize that protecting and promoting both biological and cultural diversities can provide additional co-benefits and solutions to maintain ecosystems resilient in the face of global changes.

The macroecology of butyrate-producing bacteria via metagenomic assessment of butyrate production capacity

Butyrate-producing bacteria are found in many outdoor ecosystems and host organisms, including humans, and are vital to ecosystem functionality and human health. These bacteria ferment organic matter, producing the short-chain fatty acid butyrate. However, the macroecological influences on their biogeographical distribution remain poorly resolved. Here we aimed to characterise their global distribution together with key explanatory climatic, geographical and physicochemical variables. We developed new normalised butyrate production capacity (BPC) indices derived from global metagenomic (n = 13,078) and Australia-wide soil 16S rRNA (n = 1331) data, using Geographic Information System (GIS) and modelling techniques to detail their ecological and biogeographical associations. The highest median BPC scores were found in anoxic and fermentative environments, including the human (BPC = 2.99) and non-human animal gut (BPC = 2.91), and in some plant-soil systems (BPC = 2.33). Within plant-soil systems, roots (BPC = 2.50) and rhizospheres (BPC = 2.34) had the highest median BPC scores. Among soil samples, geographical and climatic variables had the strongest overall effects on BPC scores (variable importance score range = 0.30-0.03), with human population density also making a notable contribution (variable importance score = 0.20). Higher BPC scores were in soils from seasonally productive sandy rangelands, temperate rural residential areas and sites with moderate-to-high soil iron concentrations. Abundances of butyrate-producing bacteria in outdoor soils followed complex ecological patterns influenced by geography, climate, soil chemistry and hydrological fluctuations. These new macroecological insights further our understanding of the ecological patterns of outdoor butyrate-producing bacteria, with implications for emerging microbially focused ecological and human health policies.

While clearing the forests: The social-ecological memory of trees in the Anthropocene

The Anthropocene concept raises awareness of human-induced planetary changes but is criticized for being 'too global'. We examined the social-ecological memory that emerges from people-tree relationships in South American temperate territories, Chile. We integrated dendrochronology (analysis of tree rings of 35 memorial trees; 17 species) with dendrography (participant observation complemented with semi-structured and go-along interviews with 14 interviewees; six women, eight men). We found that assemblages of people-tree relationships reflect marked historical changes in the territory, associated with the historical clearing of forests, which may be imprinted in both tree growth rings and in the social meanings and practices associated with memorial trees. In devastated territories, practices of tree care emphasize interconnectedness, multispecies collaborations, and the blurring of boundaries between humans and other-than-humans. We discuss some of the interdisciplinary and relational insights of our study, which may prove valuable for future research, political agendas, and educational programs in South America and beyond.

Building references for nature conservation

Conservation references have long been used in conservation biology to compare current biodiversity processes and states with past conditions. However, beyond the paucity of data for the construction of ancient, even prehuman, references, the relevance of these ancient references for studying ecosystems radically modified by human activities is questionable, particularly when the notions of conservation references and conservation objectives are confused and when several conservation ethics coexist that require distinct references. Because of this implicit heterogeneity in the nature of the references and their temporal baseline, conservation references not only have different meanings, but also deliver different messages. I propose establishing a common framework for conservation references to approach past biological systems and build comparable references between studies and projects. The selection of these references (distinct from conservation objectives) should be an early, explicit, standardized, and transparent milestone in any conservation process and these references should be based on state, pressure, or process dynamics, rather than fixed states. Finally, the importance of the diversity of temporal baselines used to build conservation references and to measure anthropogenic impacts should be recognized to understand the biodiversity crisis in its entirety.

The environmental conditions of endemism hotspots shape the functional traits of mammalian assemblages

Endemic (small-ranged) species are distributed non-randomly across the globe. Regions of high topography and stable climates have higher endemism than flat, climatically unstable regions. However, it is unclear how these environmental conditions interact with and filter mammalian traits. Here, we characterize the functional traits of highly endemic mammalian assemblages in multiple ways, testing the hypothesis that these assemblages are trait-filtered (less functionally diverse) and dominated by species with traits associated with small range sizes. Compiling trait data for more than 5000 mammal species, we calculated assemblage means and multidimensional functional metrics to evaluate the distribution of traits across each assemblage. We then related these metrics to the endemism of global World Wildlife Fund ecoregions using linear models and phylogenetic fourth-corner regression. Highly endemic mammalian assemblages had small average body masses, low fecundity, short lifespans and specialized habitats. These traits relate to the stable climate and rough topography of endemism hotspots and to mammals' ability to expand their ranges, suggesting that the environmental conditions of endemism hotspots allowed their survival. Furthermore, species living in endemism hotspots clustered near the edges of their communities' functional spaces, indicating that abiotic trait filtering and biotic interactions act in tandem to shape these communities.

Impacts of Deforestation on Childhood Malaria Depend on Wealth and Vector Biology

Ecosystem change can profoundly affect human well-being and health, including through changes in exposure to vector-borne diseases. Deforestation has increased human exposure to mosquito vectors and malaria risk in Africa, but there is little understanding of how socioeconomic and ecological factors influence the relationship between deforestation and malaria risk. We examined these interrelationships in six sub-Saharan African countries using demographic and health survey data linked to remotely sensed environmental variables for 11,746 children under 5 years old. We found that the relationship between deforestation and malaria prevalence varies by wealth levels. Deforestation is associated with increased malaria prevalence in the poorest households, but there was not significantly increased malaria prevalence in the richest households, suggesting that deforestation has disproportionate negative health impacts on the poor. In poorer households, malaria prevalence was 27%-33% larger for one standard deviation increase in deforestation across urban and rural populations. Deforestation is also associated with increased malaria prevalence in regions where Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus are dominant vectors, but not in areas of Anopheles arabiensis. These findings indicate that deforestation is an important driver of malaria risk among the world's most vulnerable children, and its impact depends critically on often-overlooked social and biological factors. An in-depth understanding of the links between ecosystems and human health is crucial in designing conservation policies that benefit people and the environment.

High-resolution land use/cover forecasts for Switzerland in the 21st century

We present forecasts of land-use/land-cover (LULC) change for Switzerland for three time-steps in the 21st century under the representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, and at 100-m spatial and 14-class thematic resolution. We modelled the spatial suitability for each LULC class with a neural network (NN) using > 200 predictors and accounting for climate and policy changes. We improved model performance by using a data augmentation algorithm that synthetically increased the number of cells of underrepresented classes, resulting in an overall quantity disagreement of 0.053 and allocation disagreement of 0.15, which indicate good prediction accuracy. These class-specific spatial suitability maps outputted by the NN were then merged in a single LULC map per time-step using the CLUE-S algorithm, accounting for LULC demand for the future and a set of LULC transition rules. As the first LULC forecast for Switzerland at a thematic resolution comparable to available LULC maps for the past, this product lends itself to applications in land-use planning, resource management, ecological and hydraulic modelling, habitat restoration and conservation.

The decline of tufa deposition in an alkaline fen ecosystem in East-Central Europe and its impact on biotic assemblages: Insights from monitoring and paleoecological data

Protection and restoration of the CaCO3 depositing alkaline fens require an in-depth understanding of these unique and declining ecosystems. The present study investigates the development of the formerly heavy tufa depositing alkaline fen in East-Central Europe after CaCO3 precipitation markedly declined ca. 5400 cal yr BP. By combining palaeoecological and monitoring data, we aim to identify the limiting factors for tufa deposition and to recognise the vegetation and mollusc response to the change. Investigation of the current fen ecosystem included a botanical and malacological inventory and a monthly monitoring of the physicochemical properties of the groundwater emerging at the fen. It was also tested whether CaCO3 precipitates there. Transformations of the fen ecosystem since the mid-Holocene tufa decline were recognized by applying plant macrofossil and malacological analyses supplemented with organic matter and CaCO3 contents and the radiocarbon chronologies of the sediment cores. Although macroscopic tufa is currently not observed at the fen surface, the monitoring study revealed the microscopic calcite crystals at the glass slides during the spring and summer. A combination of cooling, gradual depletion of the Ca2+ pool, acidification of soils, and water table fluctuations was likely responsible for limiting tufa deposition in the mid-Holocene and maintaining this state during the late Holocene. Share of the calciphilous species' macrofossils (e.g. moss Tomentypnum nitens) declined following the sedimentary CaCO3 drop, whereas the contribution of species associated with high nutrient levels raised (e.g. Juncus articulatus). Inspection of the contemporary vegetation of the fen revealed that only Carex paniculata is associated with the calcium-rich substrate. The response of molluscs to the decline in tufa deposition remains unclear as mollusc shells did not preserve in CaCO3-depleted sediments, except for the youngest deposits. The present-day malacofauna consists of 21 species, including two rare and protected calciphilous species, namely Vertigo angustior and V. geyeri.

Ecological filtering shapes the impacts of agricultural deforestation on biodiversity

The biodiversity impacts of agricultural deforestation vary widely across regions. Previous efforts to explain this variation have focused exclusively on the landscape features and management regimes of agricultural systems, neglecting the potentially critical role of ecological filtering in shaping deforestation tolerance of extant species assemblages at large geographical scales via selection for functional traits. Here we provide a large-scale test of this role using a global database of species abundance ratios between matched agricultural and native forest sites that comprises 71 avian assemblages reported in 44 primary studies, and a companion database of 10 functional traits for all 2,647 species involved. Using meta-analytic, phylogenetic and multivariate methods, we show that beyond agricultural features, filtering by the extent of natural environmental variability and the severity of historical anthropogenic deforestation shapes the varying deforestation impacts across species assemblages. For assemblages under greater environmental variability-proxied by drier and more seasonal climates under a greater disturbance regime-and longer deforestation histories, filtering has attenuated the negative impacts of current deforestation by selecting for functional traits linked to stronger deforestation tolerance. Our study provides a previously largely missing piece of knowledge in understanding and managing the biodiversity consequences of deforestation by agricultural deforestation.

Anthropogenic disturbance driving population decline of a dominant tree in East Asia evergreen broadleaved forests over the last 11,000 years

Current biodiversity loss is generally considered to have been caused by anthropogenic disturbance, but it is unclear when anthropogenic activities began to affect biodiversity loss. One hypothesis suggests it began with the Industrial Revolution, whereas others propose that anthropogenic disturbance has been associated with biodiversity decline since the early Holocene. To test these hypotheses, we examined the unique vegetation of evergreen broadleaved forests (EBLFs) in East Asia, where humans have affected landscapes since the early Holocene. We adopted a genomic approach to infer the demographic history of a dominant tree (Litsea elongata) of EBLFs. We used Holocene temperature and anthropogenic disturbance factors to calculate the correlation between these variables and the historical effective population size of L. elongata with Spearman statistics and integrated the maximum-entropy niche model to determine the impact of climate change and anthropogenic disturbance on fluctuation in its effective population size. We identified 9 well-defined geographic clades for the populations of L. elongata. Based on the estimated historical population sizes of these clades, all the populations contracted, indicating persistent population decline over the last 11,000 years. Demographic history of L. elongata and human population change, change in cropland use, and change in irrigated rice area were significantly negatively correlated, whereas climate change in the Holocene was not correlated with demographic history. Our results support the early human impact hypothesis and provide comprehensive evidence that early anthropogenic disturbance may contribute to the current biodiversity crisis in East Asia.

The principles of natural climate solutions

Natural climate solutions can mitigate climate change in the near-term, during a climate-critical window. Yet, persistent misunderstandings about what constitutes a natural climate solution generate unnecessary confusion and controversy, thereby delaying critical mitigation action. Based on a review of scientific literature and best practices, we distill five foundational principles of natural climate solutions (nature-based, sustainable, climate-additional, measurable, and equitable) and fifteen operational principles for practical implementation. By adhering to these principles, practitioners can activate effective and durable natural climate solutions, enabling the rapid and wide-scale adoption necessary to meaningfully contribute to climate change mitigation.

Movement ecology of an endangered mesopredator in a mining landscape

BACKGROUND

Efficient movement and energy expenditure are vital for animal survival. Human disturbance can alter animal movement due to changes in resource availability and threats. Some animals can exploit anthropogenic disturbances for more efficient movement, while others face restricted or inefficient movement due to fragmentation of high-resource habitats, and risks associated with disturbed habitats. Mining, a major anthropogenic disturbance, removes natural habitats, introduces new landscape features, and alters resource distribution in the landscape. This study investigates the effect of mining on the movement of an endangered mesopredator, the northern quoll (Dasyurus hallucatus). Using GPS collars and accelerometers, we investigate their habitat selection and energy expenditure in an active mining landscape, to determine the effects of this disturbance on northern quolls.

METHODS

We fit northern quolls with GPS collars and accelerometers during breeding and non-breeding season at an active mine site in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. We investigated broad-scale movement by calculating the movement ranges of quolls using utilisation distributions at the 95% isopleth, and compared habitat types and environmental characteristics within observed movement ranges to the available landscape. We investigated fine-scale movement by quolls with integrated step selection functions, assessing the relative selection strength for each habitat covariate. Finally, we used piecewise structural equation modelling to analyse the influence of each habitat covariate on northern quoll energy expenditure.

RESULTS

At the broad scale, northern quolls predominantly used rugged, rocky habitats, and used mining habitats in proportion to their availability. However, at the fine scale, habitat use varied between breeding and non-breeding seasons. During the breeding season, quolls notably avoided mining habitats, whereas in the non-breeding season, they frequented mining habitats equally to rocky and riparian habitats, albeit at a higher energetic cost.

CONCLUSION

Mining impacts northern quolls by fragmenting favoured rocky habitats, increasing energy expenditure, and potentially impacting breeding dispersal. While mining habitats might offer limited resource opportunities in the non-breeding season, conservation efforts during active mining, including the creation of movement corridors and progressive habitat restoration would likely be useful. However, prioritising the preservation of natural rocky and riparian habitats in mining landscapes is vital for northern quoll conservation.

Towards understanding human-environment feedback loops: the Atacama Desert case

The overall trajectory for the human-environment interaction has been punctuated by demographic boom-and-bust cycles, phases of growth/overshooting as well as of expansion/contraction in productivity. Although this pattern has been explained in terms of an interplay between population growth, social upscaling, ecosystem engineering and climate variability, the evoked demographic-resource-complexity mechanisms have not been empirically tested. By integrating proxy data for population sizes, palaeoclimate and internal societal factors into empirical modelling approaches from the population dynamic theory, we evaluated how endogenous (population sizes, warfare and social upscaling) and exogenous (climate) variables module the dynamic in past agrarian societies. We focused on the inland Atacama Desert, where populations developed agriculture activities by engineering arid and semi-arid landscapes during the last 2000 years. Our modelling approach indicates that these populations experienced a boom-and-bust dynamic over the last millennia, which was coupled to structure feedback between population sizes, hydroclimate, social upscaling, warfare and ecosystem engineering. Thus, the human-environment loop appears closely linked with cooperation, competition, limiting resources and the ability of problem-solving. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Positive feedbacks in deep-time transitions of human populations

Abrupt and rapid changes in human societies are among the most exciting population phenomena. Human populations tend to show rapid expansions from low to high population density along with increased social complexity in just a few generations. Such demographic transitions appear as a remarkable feature of Homo sapiens population dynamics, most likely fuelled by the ability to accumulate cultural/technological innovations that actively modify their environment. We are especially interested in establishing if the demographic transitions of pre-historic populations show the same dynamic signature of the Industrial Revolution transition (a positive relationship between population growth rates and size). Our results show that population growth patterns across different pre-historic societies were similar to those observed during the Industrial Revolution in developed western societies. These features, which appear to have been operating during most of our recent demographic history from hunter-gatherers to modern industrial societies, imply that the dynamics of cooperation underlay sudden population transitions in human societies. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

The Anthropocene condition: evolving through social-ecological transformations

Anthropogenic planetary disruptions, from climate change to biodiversity loss, are unprecedented challenges for human societies. Some societies, social groups, cultural practices, technologies and institutions are already disintegrating or disappearing as a result. However, this coupling of socially produced environmental challenges with disruptive social changes-the Anthropocene condition-is not new. From food-producing hunter-gatherers, to farmers, to urban industrial food systems, the current planetary entanglement has its roots in millennia of evolving and accumulating sociocultural capabilities for shaping the cultured environments that our societies have always lived in (sociocultural niche construction). When these transformative capabilities to shape environments are coupled with sociocultural adaptations enabling societies to more effectively shape and live in transformed environments, the social-ecological scales and intensities of these transformations can accelerate through a positive feedback loop of 'runaway sociocultural niche construction'. Efforts to achieve a better future for both people and planet will depend on guiding this runaway evolutionary process towards better outcomes by redirecting Earth's most disruptive force of nature: the power of human aspirations. To guide this unprecedented planetary force, cultural narratives that appeal to human aspirations for a better future will be more effective than narratives of environmental crisis and overstepping natural boundaries. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Dung removal increases under higher dung beetle functional diversity regardless of grazing intensification

Dung removal by macrofauna such as dung beetles is an important process for nutrient cycling in pasturelands. Intensification of farming practices generally reduces species and functional diversity of terrestrial invertebrates, which may negatively affect ecosystem services. Here, we investigate the effects of cattle-grazing intensification on dung removal by dung beetles in field experiments replicated in 38 pastures around the world. Within each study site, we measured dung removal in pastures managed with low- and high-intensity regimes to assess between-regime differences in dung beetle diversity and dung removal, whilst also considering climate and regional variations. The impacts of intensification were heterogeneous, either diminishing or increasing dung beetle species richness, functional diversity, and dung removal rates. The effects of beetle diversity on dung removal were more variable across sites than within sites. Dung removal increased with species richness across sites, while functional diversity consistently enhanced dung removal within sites, independently of cattle grazing intensity or climate. Our findings indicate that, despite intensified cattle stocking rates, ecosystem services related to decomposition and nutrient cycling can be maintained when a functionally diverse dung beetle community inhabits the human-modified landscape.

Uncovering the Holocene roots of contemporary disease-scapes: bringing archaeology into One Health

The accelerating pace of emerging zoonotic diseases in the twenty-first century has motivated cross-disciplinary collaboration on One Health approaches, combining microbiology, veterinary and environmental sciences, and epidemiology for outbreak prevention and mitigation. Such outbreaks are often caused by spillovers attributed to human activities that encroach on wildlife habitats and ecosystems, such as land use change, industrialized food production, urbanization and animal trade. While the origin of anthropogenic effects on animal ecology and biogeography can be traced to the Late Pleistocene, the archaeological record-a long-term archive of human-animal-environmental interactions-has largely been untapped in these One Health approaches, thus limiting our understanding of these dynamics over time. In this review, we examine how humans, as niche constructors, have facilitated new host species and 'disease-scapes' from the Late Pleistocene to the Anthropocene, by viewing zooarchaeological, bioarchaeological and palaeoecological data with a One Health perspective. We also highlight how new biomolecular tools and advances in the '-omics' can be holistically coupled with archaeological and palaeoecological reconstructions in the service of studying zoonotic disease emergence and re-emergence.

Aligning climate scenarios to emissions inventories shifts global benchmarks

Taking stock of global progress towards achieving the Paris Agreement requires consistently measuring aggregate national actions and pledges against modelled mitigation pathways1. However, national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) and scientific assessments of anthropogenic emissions follow different accounting conventions for land-based carbon fluxes resulting in a large difference in the present emission estimates2,3, a gap that will evolve over time. Using state-of-the-art methodologies4 and a land carbon-cycle emulator5, we align the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-assessed mitigation pathways with the NGHGIs to make a comparison. We find that the key global mitigation benchmarks become harder to achieve when calculated using the NGHGI conventions, requiring both earlier net-zero CO2 timing and lower cumulative emissions. Furthermore, weakening natural carbon removal processes such as carbon fertilization can mask anthropogenic land-based removal efforts, with the result that land-based carbon fluxes in NGHGIs may ultimately become sources of emissions by 2100. Our results are important for the Global Stocktake6, suggesting that nations will need to increase the collective ambition of their climate targets to remain consistent with the global temperature goals.

Climate-altered Precipitation is more Important than Land Use when Modeling Ecosystem Services Associated with Surficial Processes

Ecosystem services (ESs) associated with surficial processes may change according to shifts in land use, land cover, and climate parameters. Estimating these shifts can be important for land development planning, as urbanization alters soil processes that can manifest legacy effects. We employed the InVEST suite of models for sediment retention, nutrient delivery, and carbon storage to postulate how these ESs will change in the Upstate of South Carolina under future precipitation and land use and land cover (LULC) scenarios. We used the average precipitation from 1981-2010 and WorldClim precipitation projections for 2021-2040 and 2041-2060 to embody climatic precipitation shifts. For our LULC scenarios, we used 2011 and 2016 NLCD landscapes, then projected future LULC to hypothesize four future scenarios. We found that for the ES models that included both precipitation and LULC as inputs, precipitation dictated ES delivery far more heavily than land use or land cover. LULC scenarios produced consistent changes in ES delivery for all models except sediment export. Phosphorus and sediment exports increased between 2011 and 2016 due to LULC change, while nitrogen export stayed the same and carbon storage decreased. Land development that prioritizes forest cover will cause the least change in ESs, but allowing for continued forest loss to low-density development will have the most intense implications for ESs. Prioritization of land uses that preserve ESs associated with surficial processes will be critical to the longevity of agriculture and ecosystem integrity in this rapidly developing region. Land development planners should integrate consideration of ESs associated with surficial processes into future regional planning.

Specimens as individuals: Four interventions and recommendations for great ape skeletal collections research and curation

Extensive discourse surrounds the ethics of human skeletal research and curation, but there has yet to be a similar discussion of the treatment of great ape skeletal remains, despite the clear interest in their ethical treatment when alive. Here we trace the history of apes who were killed and collected for natural history museums during the early 20th century and showcase how the guiding research questions of the colonial era continue to influence scholarship. We discuss best practices for improving industry and academic standards of research on, and the curation of, ape remains. The suggested interventions involve restoring individual identity and narrative to great apes while engaging with contextual reflexivity and decolonial theory. The resulting recommendations include contextualizing the individual, piecing individuals back together, challenging/questioning the captive-wild dichotomy, and collaborative international conversations. Our objective is to encourage a conversation regarding ethical and theoretical considerations in great ape skeletal remains research.

1000 years of population, warfare, and climate change in pre-Columbian societies of the Central Andes

Different Andean societies underwent processes of expansion and collapse during propitious or adverse climate conditions, resource boost or depletion along with population variations. Previous studies have emphasized that demographic collapses of polities in the Central Andes Area were triggered by warfare and the negative impacts of fluctuating climate (droughts) on crop productivity. Nevertheless, the interactions between climatic variability, demography and warfare have been less thoroughly evaluated. We develop population dynamic models to test feedback relationships between population growth, climate change and warfare in the Central Andes, where considerable regional hydroclimate variations have occurred over a millennium. Through population models, we found out that the rise and demise of social polities in the northern coast of the Central Andes appear to be a consequence of climate change. In contrast, for the highlands of Peru and the Titicaca basin, population models suggest that warfare intensity has a negative effect on population growth rates.

Substantial light woodland and open vegetation characterized the temperate forest biome before Homo sapiens

The extent of vegetation openness in past European landscapes is widely debated. In particular, the temperate forest biome has traditionally been defined as dense, closed-canopy forest; however, some argue that large herbivores maintained greater openness or even wood-pasture conditions. Here, we address this question for the Last Interglacial period (129,000-116,000 years ago), before Homo sapiens-linked megafauna declines and anthropogenic landscape transformation. We applied the vegetation reconstruction method REVEALS to 96 Last Interglacial pollen records. We found that light woodland and open vegetation represented, on average, more than 50% cover during this period. The degree of openness was highly variable and only partially linked to climatic factors, indicating the importance of natural disturbance regimes. Our results show that the temperate forest biome was historically heterogeneous rather than uniformly dense, which is consistent with the dependency of much of contemporary European biodiversity on open vegetation and light woodland.

Past and future impacts of land-use changes on ecosystem services in Austria

Environmental and socio-economic developments induce land-use changes with potentially negative impacts on human well-being. To counteract undesired developments, a profound understanding of the complex relationships between drivers, land use, and ecosystem services is needed. Yet, national studies examining extended time periods are still rare. Based on the Special Report on land use, land management and climate change by the Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC), we use the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework to (1) identify the main drivers of land-use change, (2) describe past and future land-use changes in Austria between 1950 and 2100, (3) report related impacts on ecosystem services, and (4) discuss management responses. Our findings indicate that socio-economic drivers (e.g., economic growth, political systems, and technological developments) have influenced past land-use changes the most. The intensification of agricultural land use and urban sprawl have primarily led to declining ecosystem services in the lowlands. In mountain regions, the abandonment of mountain grassland has prompted a shift from provisioning to regulating services. However, simulations indicate that accelerating climate change will surpass socio-economic drivers in significance towards the end of this century, particularly in intensively used agricultural areas. Although climate change-induced impacts on ecosystem services remain uncertain, it can be expected that the range of land-use management options will be restricted in the future. Consequently, policymaking should prioritize the development of integrated land-use planning to safeguard ecosystem services, accounting for future environmental and socio-economic uncertainties.

Land use diversification may mitigate on-site land use impacts on mammal populations and assemblages

Land use is a major cause of biodiversity decline worldwide. Agricultural and forestry diversification measures, such as the inclusion of natural elements or diversified crop types, may reduce impacts on biodiversity. However, the extent to which such measures may compensate for the negative impacts of land use remains unknown. To fill that gap, we synthesised data from 99 studies that recorded mammal populations or assemblages in natural reference sites and in cropland and forest plantations, with or without diversification measures. We quantified the responses to diversification measures based on individual species abundance, species richness and assemblage intactness as quantified by the mean species abundance indicator. In cropland with natural elements, mammal species abundance and richness were, on average, similar to natural conditions, while in cropland without natural elements they were reduced by 28% and 34%, respectively. We found that mammal species richness was comparable between diversified forest plantations and natural reference sites, and 32% lower in plantations without natural elements. In both cropland and plantations, assemblage intactness was reduced compared with natural reference conditions, but the reduction was smaller if diversification measures were in place. In addition, we found that responses to land use were modified by species traits and environmental context. While habitat specialist populations were reduced in cropland without diversification and in forest plantations, habitat generalists benefited. Furthermore, assemblages were impacted more by land use in tropical regions and landscapes containing a larger share of (semi)natural habitat compared with temperate regions and more converted landscapes. Given that mammal assemblage intactness is reduced also when diversification measures are in place, special attention should be directed to species that suffer from land use impacts. That said, our results suggest potential for reconciling land use and mammal conservation, provided that the diversification measures do not compromise yield.

North American pollen records provide evidence for macroscale ecological changes in the Anthropocene

Recent global changes associated with anthropogenic activities are impacting ecological systems globally, giving rise to the Anthropocene. Critical reorganization of biological communities and biodiversity loss are expected to accelerate as anthropogenic global change continues. Long-term records offer context for understanding baseline conditions and those trajectories that are beyond the range of normal fluctuation seen over recent millennia: Are we causing changes that are fundamentally different from changes in the past? Using a rich dataset of late Quaternary pollen records, stored in the open-access and community-curated Neotoma database, we analyzed changes in biodiversity and community composition since the end Pleistocene in North America. We measured taxonomic richness, short-term taxonomic loss and gain, first/last appearances (FAD/LAD), and abrupt community change. For all analyses, we incorporated age-model uncertainty and accounted for differences in sample size to generate conservative estimates. The most prominent signals of elevated vegetation change were seen during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition and since 200 calendar years before present (cal YBP). During the Pleistocene-Holocene transition, abrupt changes and FADs were elevated, and from 200 to -50 cal YBP, we found increases in short-term taxonomic loss, FADs, LADs, and abrupt changes. Taxonomic richness declined from ~13,000 cal YBP until about 6,000 cal YBP and then increased until the present, reaching levels seen during the end Pleistocene. Regionally, patterns were highly variable. These results show that recent changes associated with anthropogenic impacts are comparable to the landscape changes that took place as we moved from a glacial to interglacial world.

The poleward naturalization of intracontinental alien plants

Plant introductions outside their native ranges by humans have led to substantial ecological consequences. While we have gained considerable knowledge about intercontinental introductions, the distribution and determinants of intracontinental aliens remain poorly understood. Here, we studied naturalized (i.e., self-sustaining) intracontinental aliens using native and alien floras of 243 mainland regions in North America, South America, Europe, and Australia. We revealed that 4510 plant species had intracontinental origins, accounting for 3.9% of all plant species and 56.7% of all naturalized species in these continents. In North America and Europe, the numbers of intracontinental aliens peaked at mid-latitudes, while the proportion peaked at high latitudes in Europe. Notably, we found predominant poleward naturalization, primarily due to larger native species pools in low-latitudes. Geographic and climatic distances constrained the naturalization of intracontinental aliens in Australia, Europe, and North America, but not in South America. These findings suggest that poleward naturalizations will accelerate, as high latitudes become suitable for more plant species due to climate change.

Future emergence of new ecosystems caused by glacial retreat

Glacier shrinkage and the development of post-glacial ecosystems related to anthropogenic climate change are some of the fastest ongoing ecosystem shifts, with marked ecological and societal cascading consequences1-6. Yet, no complete spatial analysis exists, to our knowledge, to quantify or anticipate this important changeover7,8. Here we show that by 2100, the decline of all glaciers outside the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets may produce new terrestrial, marine and freshwater ecosystems over an area ranging from the size of Nepal (149,000 ± 55,000 km2) to that of Finland (339,000  ±  99,000  km2). Our analysis shows that the loss of glacier area will range from 22 ± 8% to 51 ± 15%, depending on the climate scenario. In deglaciated areas, the emerging ecosystems will be characterized by extreme to mild ecological conditions, offering refuge for cold-adapted species or favouring primary productivity and generalist species. Exploring the future of glacierized areas highlights the importance of glaciers and emerging post-glacial ecosystems in the face of climate change, biodiversity loss and freshwater scarcity. We find that less than half of glacial areas are located in protected areas. Echoing the recent United Nations resolution declaring 2025 as the International Year of Glaciers' Preservation9 and the Global Biodiversity Framework10, we emphasize the need to urgently and simultaneously enhance climate-change mitigation and the in situ protection of these ecosystems to secure their existence, functioning and values.