Differences in life expectancy by education and occupation in Italy, 1980–94: Indirect estimates from maternal and paternal orphanhood

The effects of education on mortality: Evidence using college expansions

This paper explores the long-run health benefits of education for longevity. Using mortality data from the Social Security Administration (1988-2005) linked to geographic locations in the 1940-census data, we exploit changes in college availability across cohorts in local areas. Our treatment on the treated calculations suggest increases in longevity between 1.3 and 2.7 years. Some further analyses suggest the results are not driven by pre-tends, endogenous migration, and other time-varying local confounders. This paper adds to the literature on the health and social benefits of education.

Polarized adult fertility patterns following early parental death

Death of a parent during childhood has become rare in developed countries but remains an important life course event that may have consequences for family formation. This paper describes the link between parental death before age 18 and fertility outcomes in adulthood. Using the large national 2011 French Family Survey (INSEE-INED), we focus on the 1946-66 birth cohorts, for whom we observe entire fertility histories. The sample includes 11,854 respondents who have lost at least one parent before age 18. We find a strong polarization of fertility behaviours among orphaned males, more pronounced for those coming from a disadvantaged background. More often childless, particularly when parental death occurred in adolescence, some seem to retreat from parenthood. But orphaned men and women who do become parents seem to embrace family life, by beginning childbearing earlier and having more children, especially when the deceased parent is of the same sex.

What have we learned about mortality patterns over the past 25 years?

In this paper, I examine progress in the field of mortality over the past 25 years. I argue that we have been most successful in taking advantage of an increasingly data-rich environment to improve aggregate mortality models and test pre-existing theories. Less progress has been made in relating our estimates of mortality risk at the individual level to broader mortality patterns at the population level while appropriately accounting for contextual differences and compositional change. Overall, I find that the field of mortality continues to be highly visible in demographic journals, including Population Studies. However much of what is published today in field journals could just as easily appear in neighbouring disciplinary journals, as disciplinary boundaries are shrinking.

Multidimensional healthy life expectancy of the older population in China

Research on healthy life expectancy (HLE) that considers cognitive impairment has been inadequate, particularly in the context of less developed countries. Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, our study fills this research gap by computing active life expectancy (ALE), cognitive-impairment-free life expectancy (CIFLE), and active and cognitive-impairment-free life expectancy (ACIFLE) for China's older population, using multistate life tables. Results show that at age 60, the three life expectancies were 19.4 years (ALE), 9.5 years (CIFLE), and 8.8 years (ACIFLE) during the period 2011-13. HLE exhibits significant differentials by sex, urban/rural residence, educational level, marital status, and health status at age 60. Among China's older people, males and those living in urban areas experience higher CIFLE, and those who live with a spouse, are more educated, and are healthy at age 60 expect more years in good health according to all three HLE measures.Supplementary material for this article is available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2021.1914854.

Disaggregation of official demographic projections in sub-groups by education level: the neglected “composition effect” in the future path of life expectancy

We developed an innovative method to break down official population forecasts by educational level. The mortality rates of the high education group and low education group were projected using an iterative procedure, whose starting point was the life tables by education level for Italy, based on the year 2012. We provide a set of different scenarios on the convergence/divergence of the mortality differential between the high and low education groups. In each scenario, the demographic size and the life expectancy of the two sub-groups were projected annually over the period 2018–2065. We compared the life expectancy paths in the whole population and in the sub-groups. We found that in all of our projections, population life expectancy converges to the life expectancy of the high education group. We call this feature of our outcomes the “composition effect”, and we show how highly persistent it is, even in scenarios where the mortality differential between social groups is assumed to decrease over time. In a midway scenario, where the mortality differential is assumed to follow an intermediate path between complete disappearance in year 2065 and stability at the 2012 level, and in all the scenarios with a milder convergence hypothesis, our “composition effect” prevails over the effect of convergence for men and women. For instance, assuming stability in the mortality differential, we estimated a life expectancy increase at age 65 of 2.9 and 2.6 years for men, and 3.2 and 3.1 for women, in the low and high education groups, respectively, over the whole projection period. Over the same period, Italian official projections estimate an increase of 3.7 years in life expectancy at age 65 for the whole population. Our results have relevant implications for retirement and ageing policies, in particular for those European countries that have linked statutory retirement age to variations in population life expectancies. In all the scenarios where the composition effect is not offset by a strong convergence of mortality differentials, we show that the statutory retirement age increases faster than the group-specific life expectancies, and this finding implies that the expected time spent in retirement will shrink for the whole population. This potential future outcome seems to be an unintended consequence of the indexation rule.

Biases in health expectancies due to educational differences in survey participation of older Europeans: It's worth weighting for

Health expectancies are widely used by policymakers and scholars to analyse the number of years a person can expect to live in good health. Their calculation requires life tables in combination with prevalence rates of good or bad health from survey data. The structure of typical survey data, however, rarely resembles the education distribution in the general population. Specifically, low-educated individuals are frequently underrepresented in surveys, which is crucial given the strong positive correlation between educational attainment and good health. This is the first study to evaluate if and how health expectancies for 13 European countries are biased by educational differences in survey participation. To this end, calibrated weights that consider the education structure in the 2011 censuses are applied to measures of activity limitation in the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. The results show that health expectancies at age 50 are substantially biased by an average of 0.3 years when the education distribution in the general population is ignored. For most countries, health expectancies are overestimated; yet remarkably, the measure underestimates health for many Central and Eastern European countries by up to 0.9 years. These findings highlight the need to adjust for distortion in health expectancies, especially when the measure serves as a base for health-related policy targets or policy changes.

Longevity and Lifespan Variation by Educational Attainment in Spain: 1960-2015

For a long time, studies of socioeconomic gradients in health have limited their attention to between-group comparisons. Yet, ignoring the differences that might exist within groups and focusing on group-specific life expectancy levels and trends alone, one might arrive at overly simplistic conclusions. Using data from the Spanish Encuesta Sociodemográfica and recently released mortality files by the Spanish Statistical Office (INE), this is the first study to simultaneously document (1) the gradient in life expectancy by educational attainment groups, and (2) the inequality in age-at-death distributions within and across those groups for the period between 1960 and 2015 in Spain. Our findings suggest that life expectancy has been increasing for all education groups but particularly among the highly educated. We observe diverging trends in life expectancy, with the differences between the low- and highly educated becoming increasingly large, particularly among men. Concomitantly with increasing disparities across groups, length-of-life inequality has decreased for the population as a whole and for most education groups, and the contribution of the between-group component of inequality to overall inequality has been extremely small. Even if between-group inequality has increased over time, its contribution has been too small to have sizable effects on overall inequality. In addition, our results suggest that education expansion and declining within-group variability might have been the main drivers of overall lifespan inequality reductions. Nevertheless, the diverging trends in longevity and lifespan inequality across education groups represent an important phenomenon whose underlying causes and potential implications should be investigated in detail.

Examining the association between educational attainment and life expectancy in MENA region: A panel data analysis

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study is to investigate the association between educational attainment and life expectancy in 18 countries in MENA region.

METHODS

We used World Bank database for a panel of 18 MENA countries during the years 1995 to 2009. We used Life Expectancy at Birth, as the key health care output measure. Additionally, we used six health care input independent variables. All variables were transformed into natural logarithms. We estimated the production function using Cobb-Douglas function.

RESULTS

Results indicate that 1% increase in educational attainment of males 25 to 34 years old, males 25 years and older, females 25 to 34 years old, females 25 years and older, and females aged 15 to 44 years old will increase life expectancy by 0.14%, 0.07%, 0.04%, 0.03%, and 0.04%, respectively, while everything else remains constant.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that for MENA region countries investing in education to broaden access would improve health outcomes and life expectancy. Boosting educational attainment for both male and female population may close the life expectancy gaps between the MENA region and other developed countries, and males and females within the same country. Education attainment has the potential to be a social remedy for better health outcomes in MENA countries.

Life expectancy inequalities in the elderly by socioeconomic status: evidence from Italy

BACKGROUND

Life expectancy considerably increased in most developed countries during the twentieth century. However, the increase in longevity is neither uniform nor random across individuals belonging to various socioeconomic groups. From an economic policy perspective, the difference in mortality by socioeconomic conditions challenges the fairness of the social security systems. We focus on the case of Italy and aim at measuring differences in longevity at older ages by individuals belonging to different socioeconomic groups, also in order to assess the effective fairness of the Italian public pension system, which is based on a notional defined contribution (NDC) benefit computation formula, whose rules do not take into account individual heterogeneity in expected longevity.

METHODS

We use a longitudinal dataset that matches survey data on individual features recorded in the Italian module of the EU-SILC, with information on the whole working life and until death collected in the administrative archives managed by the Italian National Social Security Institute. In more detail, we follow until 2009 a sample of 11,281 individuals aged at least 60 in 2005. We use survival analysis and measure the influence of a number of events experienced in the labor market and individual characteristics on mortality. Furthermore, through Kaplan-Meier simulations of hypothetical social groups, adjusted by a Brass relational model, we estimate and compare differences in life expectancy of individuals belonging to different socioeconomic groups.

RESULTS

Our findings confirm that socioeconomic status strongly predicts life expectancy even in old age. All estimated models show that the prevalent type of working activity before retirement is significantly associated with the risk of death, even when controlling for dozens of variables as proxies of individual demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. The risk of death for self-employed individuals is 26% lower than that of employees, and life expectancy at 60 differs by five years between individuals with opposite socioeconomic statuses.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study is the first that links results based on a micro survival analysis on subgroups of the elderly population with results related to the entire Italian population. The extreme differences in mortality risks by socioeconomic status found in our study confirm the existence of large health inequalities and strongly question the fairness of the Italian public pension system.

Health inequalities in Germany and in international comparison: trends and developments over time

Social epidemiological research has consistently demonstrated that people with a low socioeconomic status are particularly at risk of diseases, health complaints and functional limitations, and die at younger ages than those with a higher socioeconomic status. Greater stresses and strains in the workplace, family and living environment are under discussion as possible explanations. Health-related behaviours, psycho-social factors and personal resources, which are important in coping with everyday demands, certainly also play a role. From a public health and health policy perspective, reducing these health inequalities is an important goal. Insights into developments and trends in health inequalities over time can contribute towards highlighting new and emerging problems, and can thus help identify possible target groups and settings for relevant interventions. At the same time, these insights provide a basis upon which the success of policies and programmes that have already been implemented can be analysed and measured. Against this background, this review examines how health inequalities in Germany have developed over the last 20 to 30 years and places its findings within the context of the latest international research in this field.

The Effect of Changes in Educational Composition on Adult Female Mortality in Brazil

The last century in Brazil was witness to profound changes. Female life expectancy at birth increased from 34.6 years in 1910 to 77.26 years in 2010. At the same time, the educational composition of the population has changed dramatically. In the 1940s, only 25% of the children aged 5-14 years old were enrolled in school. Currently, nearly all children attend school. We examine the extent to which changes in the age-specific distribution of education have contributed to the decline in adult mortality among women in Brazil. Our analysis follows other applications in the literature to measure the mortality reduction that would occur if exposure to specific risk factors was changed at the counterfactual level. The effects are not trivial: Between 1960 and 2010, about 38% of the increase in life expectancy at age 30 can be attributed to changes in the educational composition of women. An additional 22% increase is expected until 2040.

Comparison of socio-economic indicators explaining inequalities in Healthy Life Years at age 50 in Europe: 2005 and 2010

BACKGROUND

The first estimates of Healthy Life Years at age 50 (HLY50) across the EU25 countries in 2005 showed substantial variation in healthy ageing. We investigate whether factors contributing to HLY50 inequalities have changed between 2005 and 2010.

METHODS

HLY50 for each country and year were calculated using Sullivan's method, applying the age-specific prevalence of activity limitation from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) survey to life tables. Inequalities in life expectancy at age 50 (LE50) and HLY50 between countries were defined as the difference between the maximum and minimum LE50 or HLY50. Relationships between HLY50 and macro-level socio-economic indicators were investigated using meta-regression. Men and women were analysed separately.

RESULTS

Between 2005 and 2010 HLY50 inequalities for both men and women in Europe increased. In 2005 and 2010 HLY50 inequalities exceeded LE50 inequalities, particularly in the established EU15 countries in 2010 where HLY50 inequalities (men: 10.7 years; women: 12.5 years) were four times greater for men and three times for women than LE50 inequalities (men: 2.4 years; women: 4.1 years). Only material deprivation significantly explained variation in EU25 HLY50 in both years with, additionally, long-term unemployment in 2010.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that inequalities in HLY50 across Europe are large, increasing and partly explained by levels of material deprivation. Moreover long-term unemployment has become more influential in explaining variation in HLY50 between 2005 and 2010.

Estimating Mortality Differences in Developed Countries From Survey Information on Maternal and Paternal Orphanhood

In general, the use of indirect methods is limited to developing countries. Developed countries are usually assumed to have no need to apply such methods because detailed demographic data exist. However, the potentialities of demographic analysis with direct methods are limited to the characteristics of available macro data on births, deaths, and migration. For instance, in many Western countries, official population statistics do not permit the estimation of mortality by socioeconomic status (SES) or migration background, or for estimating the relationship between parity and mortality. In order to overcome these shortcomings, I modify and extend the so-called orphanhood method for indirect estimation of adult mortality from survey information on maternal and paternal survival to allow its application to populations of developed countries. The method is demonstrated and tested with data from two independent Italian cross-sectional surveys by estimating overall and SES-specific life expectancy. The empirical applications reveal that the proposed method can be used successfully for estimating levels and trends of mortality differences in developed countries and thus offers new prospects for the analysis of mortality.