Mortality and population drinking: a review of the literature

Trends in alcohol-related harm among Swedish youth: Do in-patient care registry data match drinking trends?

INTRODUCTION

Youth drinking has been declining in Sweden since the year 2000. There is a paucity of studies examining trends in alcohol-related harm during this period. The overall aim of the present study is to examine how trends in alcohol-related harm match trends in drinking among Swedish youths during 2000-2021.

METHODS

Measures of alcohol use were obtained from national school surveys. Prevalence rates of any alcohol use and heavy episodic drinking were used. Alcohol-related harm indicators were obtained from registry information from the National Board of Health and Welfare. Annual trends in harm indicators were tested with linear regression models and correlations between alcohol use and alcohol-related harm indicators were assessed using Pearson's correlation on annual data.

RESULTS

Statistically significant negative trends were observed for all alcohol-related harm indicators for the period 2000-2021. Significant correlations were found for both measures of alcohol use and all alcohol-related harm indicators.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

The levels of alcohol-related harm have declined among youths in Sweden during the period 2000-2021. The trends in harm seem to reflect the decline in youth drinking that has occurred during the same period.

Trends in alcohol-related liver disease mortality in Australia: An age-period-cohort perspective

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

There have been few systematic attempts to examine how alcohol-related mortality has changed in Australia, and no studies that have explored cohort effects in alcohol-related mortality. This study uses more than 50 years of data to measure age, period and cohort trends in alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) mortality.

DESIGN, SETTING AND CASES

This was a retrospective age-period-cohort analysis of total Australian ALD mortality data from 1968 to 2020 in Australia. There was a total of 35 822 deaths-27 208 men (76%) and 8614 women (24%).

MEASUREMENTS

Deaths from ALD were grouped into 5-year age groups and periods (e.g. deaths for 20-24-year-olds between 1968 and 1972 were combined).

FINDINGS

ALD mortality peaked in the late 1970s and early 1980s for both men and women. In age-period-cohort models, mortality was highest for cohorts born 1915-30. For example, men born between 1923 and 1927 had a relative risk of 1.58 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.52, 1.64] compared with men born between 1948 and 1952. For women, there was an increase in risk for cohorts born in the 1960s [e.g. the 1963-67 cohort had a relative risk (RR) of 1.16 (95% CI = 1.07, 1.25) compared with women born in 1948-52]. For men, there was a broad decline in mortality over time [e.g. in 2020, the RR was 0.87 (95% CI = 0.82, 0.92) compared with the reference year of 2000]. For women, mortality declined until 2000 and has been stable since.

CONCLUSIONS

Alcohol-related liver disease mortality has declined across the Australian population since the 1970s and 1980s partly due to cohort-specific shifts as the highest-risk birth cohorts age. For women, this decline had stalled by the year 2000, and cohorts of women born during the 1960s were at higher risk than earlier cohorts, suggesting the need for thoughtful interventions as this population enters its highest-risk years for ALD mortality.

The association between population drinking and ischemic heart disease mortality in educational groups

A large number of observational studies have found a J-shaped relationship between alcohol intake and ischemic heart disease (IHD) risk. However, some studies suggest that the alleged cardio-protective effect may be an artifact in the way that the elevated risk for abstainers is due to self-selection on risk factors for IHD. The aim of this paper is to estimate the association between alcohol and IHD-mortality on the basis of aggregate time-series data, where the problem with selection effects is not present. In addition, we will analyze SES-specific mortality to investigate whether there is any socio-economic gradient in the relationship at issue. SES was measured by educational level. We used IHD-mortality in three educational groups as outcome. Per capita alcohol consumption was proxied by Systembolaget's alcohol sales (litres of alcohol 100% per capita 15+). Swedish quarterly data on mortality and alcohol consumption spanned the period 1991Q1-2020Q4. We applied SARIMA time-series analysis. Survey data were used to construct an indicator of heavy SES-specific episodic drinking. The estimated association between per capita consumption and IHD-mortality was positive and statistically significant in the two groups with primary and secondary education, but not in the group with postsecondary education. The association was significantly stronger the lower the educational group. Although the associations were generally stronger for males than for females, these differences were not statistically significant (P > 0.05). Our findings suggest that the detrimental impact of per capita consumption on IHD-mortality was stronger the lower the educational group.

The Impact of Aggregate Level Alcohol Consumption on Homicide Rates: A Time Series Analysis

Consumption of alcohol has an impact on violent crimes and homicides. The study examines the association between aggregate level consumption of spirit and homicide rates in the State of Kerala in India. Time-series analyses were conducted by building Autoregressive Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARMAX) models and OLS Regression models to explain the relationship between the monthly rate of consumption of alcoholic spirits and homicide rates. The study concludes that consumption of alcoholic spirits has a statistically significant impact on the total homicide rates and the male and female homicide rates. The study has significant policy implications being one of the first studies examining the relationship between alcohol consumption and homicide rates in India and suggesting methods to address challenges of adverse public health consequences associated with alcohol consumption.

Wuliangye Baijiu but not ethanol reduces cardiovascular disease risks in a zebrafish thrombosis model

Understanding how Baijiu facilitates blood circulation and prevents blood stasis is crucial for revealing the mechanism of Baijiu for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk reduction. Here we established a zebrafish thrombosis model induced using arachidonic acid (AA) to quantitatively evaluate the antithrombotic effect of Wuliangye Baijiu. The prevention and reduction effects of aspirin, Wuliangye, and ethanol on thrombosis were compared using imaging and molecular characterization. Wuliangye Baijiu reduces thrombotic risks and oxidative stress in the AA-treated zebrafish, while ethanol with the same concentration has no similar effect. The prevention and reduction effects of Wuliangye on thrombosis are attributed to the change in the metabolic and signaling pathways related to platelet aggregation and adhesion, oxidative stress and inflammatory response.

To drink or not to drink: A study of the association between rates of non-drinkers and per drinker mean alcohol consumption in the Swedish general population

INTRODUCTION

Understanding how the mean consumption per drinker and rates of non-drinking interplay to form overall per capita alcohol consumption is imperative for our understanding of population drinking. The aim of the present study is to examine the association between rates of non-drinkers and per drinker mean alcohol consumption in the Swedish adult population and for different percentiles of drinkers.

METHODS

Data came from a monthly telephone survey of drinking habits in the Swedish adult population between 2002 and 2013. Alcohol consumption and non-drinking during the last 30 days were measured by beverage-specific quantity-frequency questions. Regression models estimated the association between the rate of non-drinkers and per drinker volume on annual data. Auto-regressive integrated moving average time-series models estimated the association on monthly data.

RESULTS

A significant (P < 0.01) negative association (-0.849) was found between the rate of non-drinkers and per drinker mean volume on annual data. A unit increase in non-drinking was associated with a decline of 0.85 cl of pure alcohol among drinkers. This finding was mirrored across all percentiles of consumption. The semi-log models found that a 1% unit increase in the rate of non-drinkers was followed by a 2% reduction in per drinker mean consumption. Auto-regressive integrated moving average time-series models verified these results.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

There is a significant association between the proportion of non-drinkers and the amount of drinking among drinkers. The theory of collectivity of drinking cultures should also include the non-drinking part of the population.

Declines in alcohol consumption in Australia: some challenges to the theory of collectivity

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

There is significant debate about whether or not changes in per-capita alcohol consumption occur collectively across the entire distribution of drinking. This study used data from a decade of declining drinking in Australia to test the collectivity of drinking trends.

DESIGN

Repeated cross-sectional surveys (2010, 2013, 2016, 2019), analysed with quantile regression techniques assessing trends in drinking for 20 quantile groups.

SETTING

Australia.

PARTICIPANTS

A general population sample (total n = 85 891; males = 39 182, females = 46 709) aged 14 years and over.

MEASUREMENTS

Past-year volume of alcohol consumed was measured using standard graduated frequency survey questions. Models were stratified by sex and age group.

FINDINGS

Throughout the whole population, alcohol consumption had declined in all percentile groups, with the largest proportional declines evident for light and moderate drinkers [e.g. drinkers in the 25th percentile declined by 32.7%; 95% confidence interval (CI) = -41.6, -22.3% per wave]. Broadly collective declines were also found for younger men and women with significant declines in every percentile group, but older groups showed some evidence of polarization. For example, women aged 45-64 years significantly increased their consumption (2.9% per wave, 95% CI = 0.3-5.5%), while consumption for those in the 25th percentile fell significantly (-16.7%, 95% CI = -27.6, -4.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

The declines in Australian drinking since 2010 have included important deviations from the collectivity predicted by Skog's influential theory of collectivity of drinking, with markedly different patterns evident among different demographic groups.

Associations between Mental Resilience, Mood, Coping, Personality, and Hangover Severity

Extensive research exists on relationships between psychological constructs and alcohol consumption. However, research on relationships with hangover severity remains limited. This study aimed to assess the associations between mental resilience, mood (i.e., depression, anxiety, and stress), coping, personality, and hangover severity. A total of N = 690 participants completed an online survey by answering questions regarding their demographics, alcohol use, hangover prevalence and severity, and several psychological assessments (Brief Resilience Scale, DASS-21, Brief Cope, and Brief Version of the Big Five Personality Inventory). Significant associations were found between hangover severity and mental resilience, mood, and avoidant coping. Higher levels of mental resilience were associated with less severe hangovers, whereas poorer mood was associated with more severe hangovers. No significant associations were found with personality traits. These findings demonstrate that several associations between psychological constructs and hangover severity exist and suggest a role of psychological factors in the pathology of the alcohol hangover. As our findings contrast with the results of previous studies that did not report an association between mental resilience and the presence and severity of hangovers, further research is warranted.

Declining Life Expectancy in the United States: Missing the Trees for the Forest

In recent years, life expectancy in the United States has stagnated, followed by three consecutive years of decline. The decline is small in absolute terms but is unprecedented and has generated considerable research interest and theorizing about potential causes. Recent trends show that the decline has affected nearly all race/ethnic and gender groups, and the proximate causes of the decline are increases in opioid overdose deaths, suicide, homicide, and Alzheimer's disease. A slowdown in the long-term decline in mortality from cardiovascular diseases has also prevented life expectancy from improving further. Although a popular explanation for the decline is the cumulative decline in living standards across generations, recent trends suggest that distinct mechanisms for specific causes of death are more plausible explanations. Interventions to stem the increase in overdose deaths, reduce access to mechanisms that contribute to violent deaths, and decrease cardiovascular risk over the life course are urgently needed to improve mortality in the United States.

Trends in alcohol consumption among adolescents in Europe: Do changes occur in concert?

OBJECTIVE

The present paper extends the scope of testing Skog's theory on the 'collectivity of drinking culture' to adolescent alcohol use in 26 European countries. The aim was to 1) examine whether changes in adolescent alcohol use are consistent across different consumption levels, and 2) explore whether trends in heavy and light drinkers diverged or converged.

METHOD

Data came from six waves of the cross-sectional European School Survey Project on Alcohol and other Drugs (ESPAD) between 1999 and 2019. The sample consisted of n = 452,935 students aged 15-16 years. Trends in alcohol volume across consumption levels including abstainers were estimated by quantile regression models (50th, 80th, 90th and 95th percentile). Countries were classified according to trends showing (soft/hard) collectivity or (soft/hard) polarisation. Trends in heavy drinkers were compared with the population trend.

RESULTS

Trends in alcohol consumption at different levels across 26 European countries in the period 1999-2019 were not homogeneous. Collective changes were found in 15 (14 soft/1 hard), and polarised trends in 11 countries (5 soft/6 hard). Collectivity was generally associated with a declining trend. In 18 countries, trends in heavy and light drinkers diverged.

CONCLUSION

Accepting some variation in the strength of changes across consumption levels, changes in many European countries occurred in the same direction. Yet, diverging trends at different consumption levels in most countries indicate a less beneficial change in heavy compared with light drinkers, implying that in addition to universal population-level strategies, intervention strategies targeting specific risk groups are needed to prevent alcohol-related harm.

Alcohol control policy measures and all-cause mortality in Lithuania: an interrupted time-series analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Alcohol use has been identified as a major risk factor for burden of mortality and disease, particularly for countries in eastern Europe. During the past two decades, several countries in this region have implemented effective alcohol policy measures to combat this burden. The aim of the current study was to measure the association between Lithuania's alcohol control policies and adult all-cause mortality.

DESIGN

Interrupted time-series methodology by means of general additive models.

SETTING

Lithuania.

PARTICIPANTS

Adult population of Lithuania, aged 20 years and older.

MEASUREMENTS

Alcohol control policies were ascertained via a document review of relevant legislation materials. Policy effects were evaluated as follows: (1) slope changes in periods of legislative (non-)activity with regard to alcohol control policy (analysis 1); (2) level changes of three interventions following recommendations of the World Health Organization (analysis 2); and (3) level changes of seven interventions judged a priori by an international panel of experts (analysis 3). Mortality was measured by sex-stratified and total monthly age-standardized rates of all-cause mortality for the adult population.

FINDINGS

During the period 2001-18, effective alcohol control policy measures were implemented on several occasions, and in those years the all-cause mortality rate declined by approximately 3.2% more than in years without such policies. In particular, the implementation of increased taxation in 2017 was associated with reduced mortality over and above the general trend for men and in total for all analyses, which amounted to 1452 deaths avoided (95% confidence interval = -166 to -2739) in the year following the implementation of the policy.

CONCLUSIONS

Alcohol control policies in Lithuania appear to have reduced the overall adult all-cause mortality over and above secular trends.

Alcohol and the Risk of Injury

Globally, almost four and a half million people died from injury in 2019. Alcohol's contribution to injury-related premature loss of life, disability and ill-health is pervasive, touching individuals, families and societies throughout the world. We conducted a review of research evidence for alcohol's causal role in injury by focusing on previously published systematic reviews, meta-analyses and where indicated, key studies. The review summarises evidence for pharmacological and physiological effects that support postulated causal pathways, highlights findings and knowledge gaps relevant to specific forms of injury (i.e., violence, suicide and self-harm, road injury, falls, burns, workplace injuries) and lays out options for evidence-based prevention.

Is the theory of collectivity of drinking cultures valid across educational groups?

Introduction

To explore whether Skog's theory of collectivity of drinking cultures is valid across groups with different socioeconomic position (SEP).

Methods

Individual‐level information on alcohol consumption and SEP for the years 2004–2014 were retrieved from the Monitoring Project; a nationally representative monthly alcohol use survey. The analytical sample consisted of 162 369 respondents aged 25–79 years. SEP was measured by education level. Alcohol use was measured by yearly volume of consumption and frequency of heavy episodic drinking (HED). Respondents were divided into six SEP‐groups based on their education level and sex. Mean yearly volume consumption and prevalence of monthly HED was calculated for each group and graphically plotted against the overall mean volume of consumption.

Results

The yearly changes in overall mean consumption during the study period reflected a collective shift in drinking across groups with basic, intermediate and high education. There were also indications that changes in overall mean consumption reflected collective shifts in the prevalence of HED across the SEP‐groups. Moreover, while the magnitude of the associations for both average volume and HED differed somewhat in strength across the SEP‐groups, they were clearly in the same, positive, direction.

Discussion and Conclusions

Our findings add support for including a socioeconomic dimension to Skog's theory of collectivity of drinking cultures. Future studies should replicate our analyses on cases and periods with more tangible changes in the price and availability of alcohol.

Impact of Alcohol Policies on Suicidal Behavior: A Systematic Literature Review

Alcohol consumption has been found to be related to suicidal behavior at the individual and population level, but there is lack of literature reviews on the effect of alcohol policies on suicidal behavior. Therefore, the aim of the current study is to conduct a systematic literature review of the impact of alcohol policies at the population level on suicidal behavior and ideation. We searched the Cochrane CENTRAL, Cochrane DARE, EMBASE, Medline, ProQuest, PsycINFO, PubMed, SCOPUS, and Web of Science electronic databases in March 2019. Papers analyzing alcohol policies limiting alcohol use and studying suicidal behaviors as an outcome measure were included; we identified 19 papers. Although the methods and effect sizes varied substantially in the studies, reducing alcohol often led to reduction in suicidal behavior. Ecological-level studies predominantly investigated the effect of restrictions on alcohol availability and increased cost of alcohol, and the majority presented a reduction in suicides across Western and Eastern Europe, as well as the US. The majority of studies were rated as unclear risk of bias for a number of domains due to a lack of clear reporting. Policies targeting harmful alcohol consumption may contribute towards a reduction in suicidal behavior at the population level.

The link between per capita alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harm in educational groups

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS

Research based on individual-level data suggests that the same amount of alcohol yields more harm in low-socioeconomic status (SES) groups than in high-SES groups. Little is known whether the effect of changes in population-level alcohol consumption on harm rates differs by SES-groups. The aim of this study was to elucidate this issue by estimating the association between per capita alcohol consumption and SES-specific rates of alcohol-related mortality.

DESIGN AND METHODS

Per capita alcohol consumption was proxied by Systembolaget's alcohol sales (litres 100% alcohol per capita 15+). Quarterly data on mortality and alcohol consumption spanned the period 1991Q1-2017Q4. We used two outcomes: (i) alcohol-specific mortality (deaths with an explicit alcohol diagnosis); and (ii) violent deaths. SES was measured by education. We used three educational groups: (i) low (<10 years); (ii): intermediate (10-12 years); and (iii) high (13+ years). We applied error correction modelling to estimate the association between alcohol and alcohol-specific mortality, and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average-modelling to estimate the association between alcohol and violent deaths.

RESULTS

The estimated associations between per capita consumption and the two outcomes were positive and statistically significant in the two groups with low and intermediate education, but not in the high education group. There was a significant gradient in the level of association between alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harm by educational group; the association was stronger the lower the educational group.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that the association between per capita consumption and alcohol-related harm was stronger the lower the educational group.

Effect of alcohol prohibition on liver cirrhosis mortality rates in Canada from 1901 to 1956: A time-series analysis

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS

The extent to which alcohol consumption in Canada was affected by alcohol prohibition in the early 20th century remains unclear. Since there is a dearth of data on consumption during this time, we estimated the effect of alcohol prohibition on alcohol consumption, as measured by changes in liver cirrhosis mortality rates in Canada.

DESIGN AND METHODS

Annual liver cirrhosis mortality data were obtained for 1901 to 1956 for the provinces of Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Ontario and Saskatchewan. Changes in death rates were assessed, by province, using autoregressive integrated moving average models. Results were pooled across provinces using a fixed effects meta-analysis. A secondary fixed effects meta-analysis was performed which only included provinces with data for before, during and after prohibition, and excluded provinces with data only beginning during prohibition.

RESULTS

Prohibition was associated with a statistically significant decrease in liver cirrhosis death rates only in Nova Scotia (P = 0.01). Pooling of provincial results indicated that prohibition resulted in 0.39 (95% confidence interval 0.06, 0.72; P = 0.02) fewer liver cirrhosis deaths per 100 000 people. In the restricted meta-analysis, prohibition resulted in 0.65 (95% confidence interval 0.18, 1.12; P < 0.01) fewer liver cirrhosis deaths per 100 000 people.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Although alcohol prohibition in Canada did not eliminate alcohol consumption, our findings suggest that prohibition was associated with reduced consumption, as evidenced by a reduction in liver cirrhosis mortality rates. Further, it's important to reflect on alcohol's history in Canada and use those policy lessons to guide the construction of effective cannabis legislation.

Alcohol control policies and mortality trends in Belarus

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Belarus is among the countries that have very high alcohol consumption levels, and that suffer from a huge burden of excessive drinking. This paper aims to explore the peculiarities of the alcohol control policies implemented in Belarus, and to link these policies to the trends in alcohol consumption and mortality.

DATA AND METHODS

Our narrative review of alcohol policies and anti-alcohol measures is based on the laws, directives and other official documents issued by Belarusian authorities since the early 1990s. The data on alcohol consumption and other relevant variables originate from official statistical books. Our analysis of mortality trends is based upon official statistical tables by causes of death.

RESULTS

Despite the large number of government policy initiatives that authorities claimed were controlling the problem, alcohol consumption in Belarus grew rapidly up to 2010, when it reached the highest level in the world. This negative trend can be largely attributed to inconsistent alcohol control policies. In particular, the implementation of excise taxes encouraged the manufacturing of inexpensive fortified fruit wines. Additionally, measures designed to raise the price of alcohol were inadequate, resulting in strong alcoholic drinks (e.g. vodka) becoming more affordable. However, the third anti-alcohol campaign, which was launched in 2011, led to declines in both alcohol consumption and alcohol-related mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Belarus has acquired the experience and the legislative foundation needed to implement effective alcohol control polices. To further reduce alcohol-related harm in Belarus, a steady and consistent long-term policy perspective is required.

Significant decrease in the rate of fatal alcohol poisonings in Finland validated by blood alcohol concentration statistics

BACKGROUND

Alcohol may cause death directly by acute poisoning, as well as induce illnesses or accidents that lead to death. Our research question was whether the current decreasing trend in acute fatal alcohol poisonings in Finland is a real phenomenon or an artefact caused by possible changes in the process of determining the cause of death.

METHODS

All cases in the national post-mortem toxicology database in which the underlying cause of death was acute alcohol poisoning in 1987-2018 were investigated in terms of blood alcohol concentration (BAC), age and gender. The number of acute alcohol poisonings was compared to the number of deaths from alcohol induced illness in the post-mortem toxicology database.

RESULTS

A total of 12 126 acute alcohol poisoning cases were retrieved. Between 2004 and 2017 the number of acute alcohol poisonings decreased 60.1 %. At the same time the number of alcohol induced illnesses in the study material remained stable or decreased marginally. The median BAC in all acute alcohol poisonings was 3.2 g/kg. The annual median BAC values showed a small but significant decrease over the study period. The proportion of women in acute alcohol poisonings increased significantly over the study period, from 17.1%-22.3%. Women were on average 2.5 years older than men.

CONCLUSIONS

On grounds of the BAC statistics and supporting evidence, we conclude that the significant decrease in the number of fatal alcohol poisonings is true and likely reflects changes in the overall consumption of alcohol.

Alcohol Consumption and Violent Deaths in the City of Sao Paulo in 2015

Background: Excessive alcohol consumption is a serious public health issue, because drunkenness affects critical judgment and self-control, making people more vulnerable to violence and accidents, with thus a potential association between alcohol consumption and violent deaths. Objective: To assess the association between alcohol consumption and violent deaths in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, in 2015, and its relationship with gender, age, cause of death and blood alcohol concentration (BAC) of victims. Methods: A cross-sectional retrospective study was conducted by collection of data from 2,882 victims of violent deaths subjected to examination of BAC from the archives of the Institute of Legal Medicine of the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Results: Alcohol was detected in blood samples of 27.06% of the victims and mean BAC levels were 1.92 ± 1.24 g/L. The mean age of the victims was 33.49 ± 15.19 years. The majority of the victims were male (84.14%) and the prevalence of positive BAC was higher amongst men (28.74%) than women (18.16%). Homicide was the most prevalent cause of death in the sample (36.57%), but there were a higher proportion of traffic accidents victims with positive BAC (32.01%), as well as higher BAC levels in these victims (46.77% in the range of 1.6-2.5 g/L). Conclusions: The results obtained in this study support a potential association between alcohol consumption and violent deaths in the city of Sao Paulo, mainly in traffic accidents victims.

Alcohol consumption and alcohol policy in Estonia 2000-2017 in the context of Baltic and Nordic countries

Introduction and Aims

Alcohol consumption has become a global health threat and there is need for an evidence‐based global alcohol policy. This study aimed to describe alcohol consumption in parallel with alcohol policy in 2000–2017 in Estonia in the context of Baltic and Nordic countries.

Design and Methods

A review of routine statistics concerning alcohol consumption and the pertinent legislation in Estonia was performed. The measures used to assess the effects of alcohol policy were adult (15 and older) pure alcohol per capita consumption (APC) in litres, alcohol outlet densities and opening hours, taxes and the price of alcoholic beverages.

Results

Adult domestic APC in Estonia increased from 9.3 to 14.8 in 2000–2007 and thereafter decreased to 10.2 in 2016 (10.3 in 2017). Adult APC in Estonia was lower than that in Latvia and Lithuania but higher than that in Nordic countries. Since 2010, beer has been the most prevalent alcoholic beverage in Estonia. The density and opening hours of alcohol retail shops were much higher in Estonia and other Baltic countries than in Nordic countries. The alcohol retail price increased twice from 2006 to 2017 in Estonia, resulting in a double price difference with Latvia.

Discussion and Conclusions

Evidence‐based comprehensive alcohol policy should continue in Estonia. Based on the example of Nordic countries, more attention should be paid to the physical availability of alcohol in Estonia. In terms of economic availability, it is important to focus on the cross‐border alcohol trade to achieve improvements in public health.

The Road to the Alcohol Act 2018 in Finland: A conflict between public health objectives and neoliberal goals

Finnish alcohol policy has aimed for decades years to mitigate alcohol-related harm by using high taxation and restrictions on the physical availability of alcohol. The state monopoly on the retail of alcohol has played a central role in reducing the availability of alcohol. In 2011, preparations began for a comprehensive reform of the Alcohol Act 1994. Over time, the issue became highly politicised, lobbied and divisive. It took intense work of two consecutive governments to finalise the reform. The new Alcohol Act came into force in 2018. It expanded the rights of grocery stores to sell alcohol and reduced the administrative burden for on-premise sales. As a result, the state monopoly on the retail of alcohol was weakened, but it still has an important impact on the physical availability of alcohol. The Finnish public health community expected an increase in alcohol sales following the reform because of greater alcohol availability and expected price reductions related to greater competition of sales in grocery stores. However, prices decreased less than expected in 2018, partly due to a simultaneous increase in alcohol taxes. It is difficult to evaluate the impact of the reform at this early stage. However, after the reform, the 10-year (2008-2017) downward trend in the total per capita alcohol consumption was discontinued despite the tax increase. According to preliminary analyses, the change in the law may have slightly increased recorded alcohol sales but the effect was not statistically significant.

Sex disparities in premature adult mortality in Estonia 1995-2016: a national register-based study

OBJECTIVES

To quantify sex disparities in cause-specific premature adult mortality in Estonia, to determine the causes of death with the largest differences, to provide insight into related behaviours and to offer some guidance to public health policy-makers based on the results of the study.

DESIGN

A national register-based study.

SETTING

Estonia.

DATA

Individual records of deaths at ages 20-69 years in 1995-2016 from the Estonian causes of death register; data on tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption in the adult population in 1996-2016 from the biennial postal survey of health behaviour.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Overall and cause-specific age-standardised mortality rates, average annual percentage changes in mortality, and cause-specific men-to-women mortality rate ratios were calculated. In addition, the age-standardised prevalence proportions of tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption and men-to-women prevalence rate ratios were determined.

RESULTS

Overall premature adult mortality decreased considerably during 1995-2016, but no reduction was observed with respect to the large relative sex disparities. In circulatory disease mortality, the disparities widened significantly over time. Extremely high mortality rate ratios were observed for cancer of the upper aerodigestive tract and for lung cancer. There was a stable, more than fivefold male excess mortality from external causes. A fourfold male disadvantage was evident for alcohol poisoning, mental disorders due to alcohol and alcohol-related degeneration of the nervous system as a group. The prevalence of tobacco smoking and harmful alcohol consumption among men exceeded that among women by factors of two and six, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Even though premature adult mortality has markedly decreased over time, there has been no success in diminishing the large sex differences in the mortality patterns, mostly associated with smoking and excessive alcohol consumption, both more prevalent among men. Estonia needs a comprehensive and consistent alcohol policy while maintaining and further developing antitobacco measures.

Impact of legislation to reduce the drink-drive limit on road traffic accidents and alcohol consumption in Scotland: a natural experiment study

Background

It is widely recognised that drink driving is a leading cause of road traffic accidents (RTAs). There is evidence that changing the drink-drive limit from a blood alcohol concentration of 0.08 to 0.05 g/dl is effective in reducing RTAs. Scotland changed the blood alcohol concentration limit to 0.05 g/dl on 5 December 2014.

Aims

To assess whether or not the numbers and rates of RTAs and per capita alcohol consumption in Scotland were reduced because of the 2014 drink-drive legislation. To assess whether or not the 2014 change in legislation provided good value for money.

Design

A natural experimental, quantitative study. The control group was England and Wales, that is, the other countries in Great Britain, where the drink-drive legislation remained unchanged.

Setting

Great Britain.

Participants

The entire population of Scotland, England and Wales for the period of January 2013–December 2016.

Intervention

The change to drink-drive legislation in Scotland.

Outcome measures

The counts and rates of RTAs; and per capita alcohol consumption.

Methods

For the numbers and rates of RTAs (both traffic flow and population denominators were used), and separately for the intervention and control trial groups, negative binomial regression models were fitted to panel data sets to test for a change in outcome level after the new 2014 legislation was in place. To obtain a ‘difference-in-differences’ (DiD)-type measure of effect, an interaction term between the intervention group indicator and the binary covariate for indicating pre and post change in legislation (‘pseudo’-change for the control group) was assessed. For off- and on-trade per capita alcohol sales, and separately for the intervention and control trial group, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average error models were fitted to the relevant time series.

Results

The change to drink-drive legislation was associated with a 2% relative decrease in RTAs in Scotland [relative risk (RR) 0.98, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.04; p = 0.53]. However, the pseudo-change in legislation was associated with a 5% decrease in RTAs in England and Wales (RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.00; p = 0.05). For RTA rates, with traffic flow as the denominator, the DiD-type estimate indicated a 7% increase in rates for Scotland relative to England and Wales (unadjusted RR 1.07, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.17; p = 0.1). The change to drink-drive legislation was associated with a 0.3% relative decrease in per capita off-trade sales (–0.3%, 95% CI –1.7% to 1.1%; p = 0.71) and a 0.7% decrease in per capita on-trade sales (–0.7%, 95% CI –0.8% to –0.5%; p < 0.001).

Conclusion

The change to drink-drive legislation in Scotland in December 2014 did not have the expected effect of reducing RTAs in the country, and nor did it change alcohol drinking levels in Scotland. This main finding for RTAs was unexpected and the research has shown that a lack of enforcement is the most likely reason for legislation failure.

Future work

Investigations into how the public interpret and act on changes in drink-drive legislation would be welcome, as would research into whether or not previous change in drink-drive legislation effects on RTAs in other jurisdictions are associated with the level of enforcement that took place.

Trial registration

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN38602189.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme and will be published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 7, No. 12. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Has the Relationship Between Alcohol Consumption and Alcohol-Related Risky Behaviour Changed in Australia? An Exploratory Study

AIMS

Recent studies have pointed to diverging trends between alcohol consumption and harm rates. One explanation for these trends is the normalization hypothesis, which suggests that declines in alcohol consumption will result in more risky behaviour by the remaining drinkers as consumption becomes a more deviant behaviour. We examine how the relationship between alcohol consumption and risky behaviour has changed in Australia over a fourteen-year period.

METHODS

Risky behaviour and alcohol consumption were obtained from six waves (2001, 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016) of the National Drug Strategy Household Survey (NDSHS). 115,115 respondents aged over 14 were included in this study. Poisson regression analyses were conducted to examine the relationship between risky behaviour and two measures of alcohol consumption (average volume per day and risky drinking occasions per month) over six NDSHS waves. Interaction terms between year and the drinking variables were included in each model to identify shifts in this relationship between consumption and harm.

RESULTS

Respondents with greater alcohol consumption were more likely to report risky behaviour (IRR = 1.15, 95% CI = 1.13-1.16). Risky behaviour generally declined over time however older participants reported more risky behaviour over time. Generally, the relationship between alcohol consumption and risky behaviour has remained stable, with some very minor upward shifts for young drinkers (aged 14-29; highest IRR = 1.03, 95% CI = 1.01-1.04).

CONCLUSIONS

We found little support for the normalization hypothesis-risky behaviour tends to shift consistently along with drinking levels. Results suggest that recent reductions in alcohol consumption should lead to reductions in rates of harm.

Heavy drinking and contextual risk factors among adults in South Africa: findings from the International Alcohol Control study

Background

There is limited information about the potential individual-level and contextual drivers of heavy drinking in South Africa. This study aimed to identify risk factors for heavy drinking in Tshwane, South Africa.

Methods

A household survey using a multi-stage stratified cluster random sampling design. Complete consumption and income data were available on 713 adults. Heavy drinking was defined as consuming ≥120 ml (96 g) of absolute alcohol (AA) for men and ≥ 90 ml (72 g) AA for women at any location at least monthly.

Results

53% of the sample were heavy drinkers. Bivariate analyses revealed that heavy drinking differed by marital status, primary drinking location, and container size. Using simple logistic regression, only cider consumption was found to lower the odds of heavy drinking. Persons who primarily drank in someone else’s home, nightclubs, and sports clubs had increased odds of heavy drinking. Using multiple logistic regression and adjusting for marital status and primary container size, single persons were found to have substantially higher odds of heavy drinking. Persons who drank their primary beverage from above average-sized containers at their primary location had 7.9 times the odds of heavy drinking as compared to persons who drank from average-sized containers. Some significant associations between heavy drinking and age, race, and income were found for certain beverages.

Conclusion

Rates of heavy drinking were higher than expected giving impetus to various alcohol policy reforms under consideration in South Africa. Better labeling of the alcohol content of different containers is needed together with limiting production, marketing and serving of alcohol in large containers.

Women's role in the rise in drinking in Australia 1950-80: an age-period-cohort analysis of data from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

In Australia, as in many countries, alcohol consumption increased dramatically during the second half of the 20th century, with increased availability of alcohol, relaxation of attitudes towards drinking and shifting roles and opportunities for women as facilitating factors. We sought to investigate drinking trends by gender and birth cohort in Australia during this period.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING, PARTICIPANTS AND MEASUREMENTS

Using the usual frequency and quantity of beverage-specific alcohol intake for 10-year periods from age 20, reported retrospectively from 40 789 participants aged 40-69 years (born 1920-49) at recruitment to the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study in 1990-94, we compared trends in alcohol consumption by sex in Australia between 1950 and 1990. Participants' average daily consumption for age decades were transformed to estimated intakes for 1950, 1960, 1970, 1980 and 1990.

FINDINGS

Alcohol consumption was higher for men than women during each decade. Alcohol consumption increased for both sexes in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, and fell after 1980. The rise before 1980 was roughly equal in absolute terms for both sexes, but much greater relative to 1950 for women. Women born during 1930-39 and 1940-49 drank more alcohol during early-middle adulthood (ages 20-40) than women born during 1920-29. In the 1980s, the fall was greater in absolute terms for men, but roughly equal relative to 1950 for both sexes. In both sexes, the decline in drinking in the 1980s for birth-decade cohorts was roughly in parallel.

CONCLUSIONS

Specific birth cohorts were influential in the rise in alcohol consumption by Australian women born in 1920-49 after World War II. Much of the convergence with men's drinking after 1980 reflects large reductions in drinking among men.

Increased Alcohol Consumption Among Swedish 70-Year-Olds 1976 to 2016: Analysis of Data from The Gothenburg H70 Birth Cohort Studies, Sweden

BACKGROUND

The older adult population is increasing worldwide, as is the number of older adults who consume alcohol. Although there is a growing body of research on alcohol consumption among older people, few studies focus on changes in at-risk consumption over time across well-defined birth cohorts of older adults.

METHODS

This study used a serial cross-sectional design in order to compare alcohol consumption patterns among birth cohorts of Swedish 70-year-olds (total n = 2,268) examined in 1976 to 1977 (n = 393), 1992 to 1993 (n = 248), 2000 to 2002 (n = 458), and 2014 to 2016 (n = 1,169). Participants took part in a multidisciplinary study on health and aging. Face-to-face interviews were conducted by healthcare professionals. Protocols regarding alcohol consumption were similar for all cohorts. The volume of weekly alcohol consumption was estimated during the past month. At-risk consumption was defined as ≥100 g alcohol/wk corresponding roughly to the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism definition of heavy consumption.

RESULTS

The proportion of at-risk consumers among men increased from 16.1% in 1976 to 1977 to 29.9% in 2000 to 2002 (p = 0.001) and 45.3% in 2014 to 2016 (p < 0.001). In women, proportions were low in 1976 to 1977 (0.5%) and 1992 to 1993 (2.0%; p = 0.134), but increased to 9.5% in 2000 to 2002 (p < 0.001) and 24.3% in 2014 to 2016 (p < 0.001). The male:female ratio regarding consumption of ≥100 g/wk decreased from 32.2:1 in 1976 to 1977 to 3.1:1 in 2000 to 2002 to 1.9:1 in 2014 to 2016. Spirit consumption decreased dramatically among men during the study period, while women reported very low spirit consumption at all examinations. Wine consumption increased in both sexes between 2000 to 2002 and 2014 to 2016. Beer consumption increased among men between 2000 to 2002 and 2014 to 2016.

CONCLUSIONS

Recent cohorts of 70-year-olds in Sweden report significantly higher levels of alcohol consumption than previous cohorts. There was a dramatic increase in at-risk consumption among 70-year-olds from the 1970s to the mid-2010s, and this was particularly pronounced among women.

The total consumption model applied to gambling: Empirical validity and implications for gambling policy

Aim:

The total consumption model (TCM) originates from studies of the distribution of alcohol consumption and posits that there is a strong association between the total consumption and the prevalence of excessive/harmful consumption in a population. The policy implication of the TCM is that policy measures which effectively lead to a reduction of the total consumption, will most likely also reduce the extent of harmful consumption and related harms. Problem gambling constitutes a public health issue and more insight into problem gambling at the societal level and a better understanding of how public policies may impact on the harm level, are strongly needed. The aim of this study was to review the literature pertaining to empirical validity of the TCM with regard to gambling behaviour and problem gambling and, on the basis of the literature review, to discuss the policy implications of the TCM.

Methods:

The study is based on a literature mapping through systematic searches in literature databases, and forward and backward reference searches.

Results:

The literature searches identified a total of 12 empirical studies that examined the total consumption model or provided relevant data. All but one of these studies found empirical support for the TCM; that is, a positive association between population gambling mean and prevalence of excessive or problem gambling. Such associations were found both with cross-sectional data and with longitudinal data.

Conclusion:

There is a small but fairly consistent literature lending empirical support to the total consumption model. An important policy implication is that interventions which are successful in reducing overall gambling are likely also to reduce problem gambling incidence.

Baseline and longitudinal change in blood pressure and mortality in a Chinese cohort

Background

A J-curve association has been demonstrated for blood pressure (BP) and all-cause mortality, but data on longitudinal change of BP and mortality in Chinese population are limited.

Methods

We performed a retrospective cohort study to examine the association between BP (at baseline and longitudinal change) and risk of mortality in Yinzhou District, Ningbo, China, based on the Yinzhou Health Information System. At baseline, a total of 181 352 subjects aged over 18 years with at least one BP examination record were recruited through the Yinzhou Health Information System. The final analysis was restricted to 168 061 participants after exclusion of outliers of BP.

Results

A U-shaped association was observed for BP at baseline and risk of total and cardiovascular mortality. When compared with normotensive participants, patients with hypotension (HRs=1.51, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.88) and stage 3 hypertension (1.28, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.50) had an increased risk of all-cause mortality. Relative to stable BP of normotension, having a rise in BP from normotension to hypertension or from prehypertension to hypertension both conferred an increased risk of total and cardiovascular mortality (total: 1.39 (95% 1.10 to 1.75) and 1.40 (95% 1.15 to 1.69); cardiovascular: 2.22 (95% CI 1.35 to 3.65) and 1.89 (95% CI 1.20 to 2.96), respectively).

Conclusions

Our findings emphasise that hypotension and stage 3 hypertension were associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality. Longitudinal change from normotensive or prehypertensive levels to 140/90 mm Hg or higher could increase the risk of total and cardiovascular mortality.

Temporal Associations of Alcohol and Tobacco Consumption With Cancer Mortality

IMPORTANCE

Understanding whether the population-level consumption of alcohol and tobacco is associated with cancer mortality is a crucial question for public health policy that has not been answered by previous studies.

OBJECTIVE

To examine temporal associations of alcohol and tobacco consumption with overall cancer mortality in the Australian population, looking across different sex and age groups.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This population-based cohort study conducted a time series analysis (autoregressive integrated moving average models) using aggregate-level annual time series data from multiple sources. Data on alcohol consumption and tobacco consumption per capita between 1935 and 2014 among the Australian population aged 15 years and older were collected from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Cancer Council Victoria. Analysis was conducted from June 1, 2017, to October 30, 2017.

EXPOSURES

Sex- and age-specific cancer mortality rates from 1968 to 2014 were collected from the Australian Institute Health and Welfare.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Population-level cancer mortality in different sex and age groups in Australia, controlling for the effects of health expenditure.

RESULTS

Among the Australian total population aged 15 years and older in this study, 50.5% were women. Cancer death rates per 100 000 persons increased from 199 in 1968 to 214 in 1989 and then decreased steadily to 162 in 2014. Taking into account lagged effects, 1-L decreases in alcohol consumption per capita were associated with a decline of 3.9% in overall cancer mortality over a 20-year period, and 1-kg decreases in tobacco consumption per capita were associated with a 16% reduction. Alcohol consumption per capita was significantly associated with overall cancer mortality among men aged 50 to 69 years and women aged 50 years and older. Tobacco consumption per capita was found to be significantly associated with overall cancer mortality only among men aged 50 years and older.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study, alcohol consumption per capita was positively associated with overall cancer mortality among older men and women, and tobacco consumption per capita was positively associated with overall cancer mortality among older men over a 20-year period. This study provides evidence that a decrease in population-level drinking and tobacco smoking could lead to a reduction in cancer mortality.

A cross-national study of the population-level association between alcohol consumption and suicide rates

INTRODUCTION

The objective of this study was to explore the association between population-level alcohol consumption and cross-national suicide rates. Suicide mortality rates vary substantially by nation, as do the level and character of alcohol consumption. Only a few prior studies examined this association, however, and they used a small number of nations and failed to test for the multiple hypothesized pathways through which any association may operate.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We obtained data from the World Health Organization for a sample of 83 nations. Controlling for potential structural covariates, we tested four theoretical mechanisms through which population-level alcohol consumption may influence national suicide rates.

RESULTS

Results showed no evidence of threshold effects, nor were risky national drinking patterns associated with higher suicide rates. We found evidence for the most common explanation that total per capita consumption is linearly associated with suicide rates. Our other findings, however, suggested this linear association masks more complex beverage-specific effects. Per capita wine consumption was not associated with male or female suicide rates, per capita spirits consumption was associated with both male and female suicide rates, per capita beer consumption was associated with male suicide rates, and per capita consumption of "other" alcohol types was associated with female suicide rates.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Testing for only a linear association between total alcohol consumption and suicide rates fails to tell the whole story. Further research requires exploration of beverage-specific effects and other potential mechanisms, and consideration of national alcohol policies to reduce suicide rates.

Cost of Intensive Care Treatment for Liver Disorders at Tertiary Care Level in India

BACKGROUND

Liver diseases contribute significantly to the health and economic burden globally. We undertook this study to assess the health system costs, out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditure and extent of financial risk protection associated with treatment of liver disorders in a tertiary care public sector hospital in India.

METHODOLOGY

The present study was undertaken in an intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary care hospital in North India. It comprised an ICU and an HDU (high dependency unit). Bottom-up micro-costing was undertaken to assess the health system costs. Data on OOP expenditure and indirect costs were collected for 150 liver disorder patients admitted to the ICU or HDU from December 2013 to October 2014. Per-patient and per-bed-day costs of treatment were estimated from both health system and patient perspectives. Financial risk protection was assessed by computing prevalence of catastrophic health expenditure as a result of OOP expenditure.

RESULTS

In 2013-2014, health system costs per patient treated in the ICU and HDU were US$2728 [Indian National Rupee (INR) 1,63,664] and US$1966 (INR 1,17,985), respectively. The mean OOP expenditures for treatment in the ICU and HDU were US$2372 (INR 1,42,297) and US$1752 (INR 1,05,093), respectively. Indirect costs of hospitalization in ICU and HDU patients were US$166 (INR 9952) and US$182 (INR 10,903), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Treatment of chronic liver disorders poses an economic challenge for both the health system and patients. There is a need to focus on prevention of liver disorders, and finding ways to treat patients without exposing their households to the catastrophic effect of OOP expenditure.

Problem Drinking, Alcohol-Related Violence, and Homelessness among Youth Living in the Slums of Kampala, Uganda

This paper examines problem drinking, alcohol-related violence, and homelessness among youth living in the slums of Kampala—an understudied population at high-risk for both alcohol use and violence. This study is based on a cross-sectional survey conducted in 2014 with youth living in the slums and streets of Kampala, Uganda (n = 1134), who were attending Uganda Youth Development Link drop-in centers. The analyses for this paper were restricted to youth who reported current alcohol consumption (n = 346). Problem drinking patterns were assessed among youth involved in alcohol-related violence. Mediation analyses were conducted to examine the impact of homelessness on alcohol-related violence through different measures of problem drinking. Nearly 46% of youth who consumed alcohol were involved in alcohol-related violence. Problem drinkers were more likely to report getting in an accident (χ² = 6.8, df = 1, p = 0.009), having serious problems with parents (χ² = 21.1, df = 1, p < 0.0001) and friends (χ² = 18.2, df = 1, p < 0.0001), being a victim of robbery (χ² = 8.8, df = 1, p = 0.003), and going to a hospital (χ² = 15.6, df = 1, p < 0.0001). For the mediation analyses, statistically significant models were observed for frequent drinking, heavy drinking, and drunkenness. Interventions should focus on delaying and reducing alcohol use in this high-risk population.

Child injury deaths linked with adult alcohol consumption: A time series analysis

OBJECTIVE

This paper aims to quantify the population-level associations between child injury deaths and adult (aged 15+ years) per capita alcohol consumption (PCC) and between child injury deaths and the impact of major alcohol and safety policy changes in Australia.

METHODS

All child deaths due to external causes during 1910-2013, and child deaths due specifically to road crashes, assaults, suicide and other external causes, were obtained from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. Child (0-14 year) mortality rates were analysed in relation to PCC using an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model.

RESULTS

A positive association between PCC and overall child external mortality was identified. The estimated coefficient was 0.326 (p = .002), indicating that a 10% decrease in PCC was associated with a 3.3% reduction in child injury mortality. A positive association was identified for road traffic and other child injury mortality, but not assault injuries. The introduction of compulsory seatbelt legislation in combination with random breath testing was associated with a reduction in overall injury and road traffic child mortality. Decreasing the legal drinking age was associated with an increase in the rate of other external-cause child mortality.

CONCLUSION

Reducing PCC in Australia is likely to result in a small but significant reduction in the injury mortality rate of children aged 0-14 years.

Alcohol-induced risk behaviors among Brazilian nightclub patrons: a latent class analysis

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is to identify risk behavior profiles associated with alcohol consumption among patrons during or just after departure from nightclubs in São Paulo, Brazil.

STUDY DESIGN

Cross-sectional survey.

METHODS

The study used a two-stage cluster sampling survey design. Data were collected on a probabilistic sample of nightclub patrons. Overall, 2422 patrons were interviewed at the entrance of 31 nightclubs. Latent class analysis (LCA) was used to identify risk behavior profiles with an emphasis on risky driving, fights, alcoholic blackouts, and harm and unsafe sex.

RESULTS

A 3-class LCA model was selected, with classes consisting of low (43%), medium (33%), and high (24%) risk patrons. Compared to patrons in the low-risk class, patrons in the medium- and high-risk classes were more likely to be men (odds ratio [OR] = 2.2, 95% confidence interval {CI} [1.2-4.0] and OR = 3.2, 95% CI [1.8-5.8], respectively), to have engaged in binge drinking during the last year (OR = 15.0, 95% CI [7.2-31.3] and OR = 14.3, 95% CI [9.4-21.8]), to be in the highest socioeconomic stratum (OR = 2.6, 95% CI [1.3-5.1] and OR = 2.0, 95% CI [1.2-3.5]) and to have been interviewed at a hip-hop music nightclub (OR = 2.8, 95% CI [1.1-6.8] and OR = 3.7, 95% CI [1.5-9.1]).

CONCLUSIONS

Risk behaviors were not equally distributed among nightclubs. Individual- and environmental-level characteristics are associated with higher risk. Alcohol harm reduction, such as the implementation of a responsible drinking service, should be implemented in São Paulo nightclubs.

Binge drinking and the risk of liver events: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Binge drinking or heavy episodic drinking is increasingly prevalent, but the health effects are incompletely understood. We investigated whether binge drinking increases the risk for liver disease above and beyond the risk due to average alcohol consumption.

METHODS

6366 subjects without baseline liver disease who participated in the Finnish population-based Health 2000 Study (2000-2001), a nationally representative cohort. Follow-up data from national registers until 2013 were analysed for liver-related admissions, mortality and liver cancer. Binge drinking (≥5 drinks per occasion, standard drink 12 g ethanol) was categorised as weekly, monthly, or as less often or none. Multiple confounders were considered.

RESULTS

Eighty-four subjects developed decompensated liver disease. Binge drinking frequency showed a direct association with liver-disease risk after adjustment for average daily alcohol intake and age. After adjustment, the hazard ratios (HRs) for weekly and monthly binge drinking were 3.45 (P=.001) and 2.26 (P=.007) and were higher after excluding regular heavy drinkers. The HR for weekly binging was 6.82 (P=.02) in women; 2.34 (P=.03) in men; and 4.29 (P=.001) in subjects with the metabolic syndrome. Weekly binge drinking and the metabolic syndrome produced supra-additive increases in the risk of decompensated liver disease. Weekly, and to a lesser extent monthly, binging retained significance in sequential multivariate models that additionally adjusted for beverage preference and lifestyle, metabolic, and socioeconomic factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Binge drinking is associated with an increased risk for liver disease independently of average alcohol intake and confounders. The rising prevalence of binge drinking and the metabolic syndrome is particularly concerning.

Effectiveness of a web-based intervention to reduce alcohol consumption among French hazardous drinkers: a randomized controlled trial

This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of a web-based intervention to reduce alcohol consumption among hazardous drinkers. A two-group parallel randomized controlled trial was conducted among adults identified as hazardous drinkers according to the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test. The intervention delivers personalized normative feedback and some general information about alcohol. Participants can review their motivations and fears regarding reducing their alcohol intake, set individual goals and monitor their progress via a consumption diary and other tools. Within the control group, participants were provided with the same diary but could not access other services from the program. The primary outcome measure was the absolute difference in weekly alcohol intake (WAI) between baseline and 6-week follow-up. Secondary outcome measures included: relative difference in WAI; difference in excessive drinking and significant WAI reduction (decrease of 10% or more in WAI). One thousand one hundred and forty-seven people participated in the trial and 339 subjects completed it. Relative to the control group, participants in the intervention group reported a significantly greater mean absolute reduction in WAI (-3.3 versus -1.2, P = 0.03). Secondary outcomes also presented significant effects. This trial provides preliminary support to the effectiveness of this program in helping hazardous drinkers reduce their drinking, provided it is completely and regularly used.

Development in Alcohol-Related Harm in Denmark 1990–2005

Aims

This article, as part of a Nordic project, aims at studying the development of alcohol-related harms in the Danish society in the 1990s and early 2000s, a period when alcohol consumption was stable at a relatively high Nordic level.

Data

The study is based on data on sales of alcohol and on register data on alcohol-related morbidity, mortality, traffic accidents and the development of violent crimes.

Analysis

Both total alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harm have been practically unchanged during the period, in spite of large changes in consumption of the different types of alcohol. Pancreatitis mortality and hospitalisations of men due to alcoholism, alcohol psychosis and poisoning have increased, while alcohol-related traffic accidents and detentions due to drunkenness have decreased. These developments may mirror changes in the activities and structure of various authorities.

Conclusions

To properly estimate the effects of changes in drinking patterns on alcohol-related harms new measures of alcohol-related harms are needed that take into account the attributable etiological fraction of alcohol to for instance coronary heart disease. There is also a need for better measures of social consequences of drinking.

Variations in Alcohol-Related Mortality in the Nordic Countries after 1995—Continuity or Change?

Aims

The main aim of the present paper was to describe and analyse the recent development regarding differences in alcohol-related mortality between the Nordic countries. To what extent do various forms of alcohol-related mortality differ between the Nordic countries, and is a similar cross-national pattern found for men and women? Do differences in mortality rates correspond to variations in levels of alcohol consumption, and have any changes occurred with respect to these variations?

Data

Age-adjusted mortality from alcohol-specific causes, liver cirrhosis, alcohol poisonings and fatal accidents were compared between countries and in relation to recorded per capita consumption for two approximate time periods, 1995–1999 and 2000–2004 R2 was used to evaluate the extent to which differences in per capita consumption accounted for the mortality differences.

Results

Finland and Denmark had typically 2–5 times higher chronic alcohol-related mortality, e.g., cirrhosis, than Sweden, Norway and Iceland, whereas for acute mortality only Finland, and particularly Finnish men, stood out with high mortality rates, e.g., alcohol poisonings. Danish women tended to have higher or more similar mortality in relation to Finnish women in cases when this is not true for men. Differences in per capita consumption accounted for a significant part of variations in chronic alcohol mortality but to a lesser extent for variations in alcohol poisonings and fatal accidents. No marked changes in country differences occurred during the study period.

Conclusion

The results agree with the main prediction of the total consumption model, namely that the level of drinking is an important determinant of alcohol-related harm in society in particular for long-term negative consequences. The findings also suggest that comparisons of alcohol mortality should be gender-specific since the country differences may be different for men and women. The extent to which differences in alcohol policy may influence these national differences is also discussed.

Mot ett kontinentalt dryckesmönster, eller inte? Förändringar i svenskarnas alkoholkonsumtion mellan 1996 och 2005

Aim

Alcohol consumption on an aggregate level rose by 30 percent in Sweden between 1996 and 2004 according to available research. However, alcohol-related harm has not increased as much as expected. The purpose of this study is to analyze how the self-reported alcohol consumption changed between 1996 and 2005.

Data

Self-reported alcohol consumption was investigated with four identical surveys implemented by Statistics Sweden, 1996 (n = 5891, response rate 78.7 %), 1997 (n = 5807, response rate 77.8 %), 2004 (n = 5591, response rate 74.8 %) and 2006 (4277, response rate 75.1 %). In addition to weekly volume of alcohol consumption, we have data on beverage specific consumption, daily alcohol consumption for the different days of the week, frequency of binge drinking and several background variables of good quality.

Results

Self-reported alcohol consumption rose between 96/97 and 04/05, but only with 15 percent. The increase was relatively evenly distributed but women, older people and low to middle consumer groups increased their consumption the most. The frequency of binge drinking also increased as did the proportion of alcohol consumed during the weekend.

Conclusions

The increase in alcohol consumption was smaller in our study than the increase reported earlier. A few changes in the consumption pattern that could explain a diverging trend between the total alcohol consumption and alcohol related harms were found.

Heavy daily alcohol intake at the population level predicts the weight of alcohol in cirrhosis burden worldwide

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Studies assessing alcohol as a population level risk factor for cirrhosis typically focus on per capita consumption. However, clinical studies indicate that daily intake is a strong predictor of alcoholic cirrhosis. We aimed to identify the determinants of alcohol's contribution to the global cirrhosis burden and to evaluate the influence of daily drinking on a population level.

METHODS

We performed a comprehensive analysis of the WHO 2014 Global Status Report on Alcohol and Health. We categorized countries by heavy or moderate drinking based on daily consumption, using U.S. Department of Agriculture definitions of heavy drinking. Additional data on cirrhosis cofactors were also obtained. Uni- and multivariate models were fitted to identify independent predictors of the alcohol-attributable fraction of cirrhosis.

RESULTS

The WHO 2014 Report found that half of cirrhosis mortality worldwide is attributable to alcohol, approximating 60% in North America and Europe. In an integrative multivariate model, the designation of countries by moderate or heavy daily drinking had the strongest influence on the weight of alcohol in the cirrhosis burden. The relative contribution from alcohol increased by 11% with a transition from the moderate to heavy classification (p<0.001). Importantly, drinking patterns such as heavy episodic drinking and the type of alcohol did not independently predict the alcohol-attributable fraction of cirrhosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Heavy daily drinking on a population level significantly influences the weight of alcohol in the cirrhosis burden. Reducing heavy drinking should be considered as an important target for public health monitoring and policies.

LAY SUMMARY

We carried out an analysis of the WHO 2014 Global Status Report on Alcohol and Health, and categorized countries by their level of drinking (heavy or moderate). We found that half of the global cirrhosis cases, and 60% in both North America and Europe are associated with alcohol intake. We concluded that on a population level heavy daily drinking significantly influences the impact of alcohol on the cirrhosis burden.

Trend in alcohol use in Australia over 13 years: has there been a trend reversal?

BACKGROUND

Skog's collectivity theory of alcohol consumption predicted that changes in alcohol consumption would synchronize across all types of drinkers in a population. The aim of this paper is examine this theory in the Australian context. We examined whether there was a collective change in alcohol use in Australia from 2001 to 2013, estimated alcohol consumption in non-high risk and high risk drinkers, and examined the trends in alcohol treatment episodes.

METHODS

Data from the 2001-2013 National Drug Strategy Household Surveys (N = 127,916) was used to estimate the prevalence and alcohol consumption of abstainers, high risk drinkers and frequent heavy episodic drinkers. Closed treatment episodes recorded in the Alcohol and Other Drug Treatment Services National Minimum Dataset (N = 608,367) from 2001 to 2013 were used to examine the trends of closed alcohol treatment episodes.

RESULTS

The prevalence of non-drinkers (abstainers) decreased to the lowest level in 2004 (15.3 %) and rebounded steadily thereafter (20.4 % in 2013; p < .001). Correspondingly, the per capita consumption of high risk drinkers (2 standard drinks or more on average per day) increased from 20.7 L in 2001 to peak in 2010 (21.5 L; p = .020). Non-high risk drinkers' consumption peaked in 2004 (2.9 L) and decreased to 2.8 L in 2013 (p < .05). There were decreases in alcohol treatment episodes across nearly all birth cohorts in recent years.

CONCLUSION

These findings are partially consistent with and support Skog's collectivity theory. There has been a turnaround in alcohol consumption after a decade-long uptrend, as evident in the collective decreases in alcohol consumption among nearly all types of drinkers. There was also a turnaround in rate of treatment seeking, which peaked at 2007 and then decreased steadily. The timing of this turnaround differs with level of drinking, with non-high risk drinkers reaching its peak consumption in 2004 and high risk drinkers reaching its peak consumption in 2010.

Can routine information from electronic patient records predict a future diagnosis of alcohol use disorder?

OBJECTIVE

To explore whether information regarding potentially alcohol-related health incidents recorded in electronic patient records might aid in earlier identification of alcohol use disorders.

DESIGN

We extracted potentially alcohol-related information in electronic patient records and tested if alcohol-related diagnoses, prescriptions of codeine, tramadol, ethylmorphine, and benzodiazepines; elevated levels of gamma-glutamyl-transferase (GGT), and mean cell volume (MCV); and new sick leave certificates predicted specific alcohol use disorder.

SETTING

Nine general practitioner surgeries with varying size and stability.

SUBJECTS

Totally 20,764 patients with active electronic patient record until data gathering and with a history of at least four years without a specific alcohol use disorder after turning 18 years of age.

METHODS

The Cox proportional hazard analysis with time-dependent covariates of potential accumulated risks over the previous four years.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Time from inclusion until the first specific alcohol use disorder, defined by either an alcohol specific diagnostic code or a text fragment documenting an alcohol problem.

RESULTS

In the unadjusted and adjusted Cox-regression with time-dependent covariates all variables were highly significant with adjusted hazard ratios ranging from 1.25 to 3.50. Addictive drugs, sick leaves, GGT, MCV and International Classification for Primary Care version 2 (ICPC-2), and International Classification of Diseases version 10 (ICD-10) diagnoses were analyzed. Elevated GGT and MCV, ICD-10-diagnoses, and gender demonstrated the highest hazard ratios.

CONCLUSIONS

Many frequent health problems are potential predictors of an increased risk or vulnerability for alcohol use disorders. However, due to the modest hazard ratios, we were unable to establish a clinically useful tool. KEY POINTS Alcohol is potentially relevant for many health problems, but current strategies for identification and intervention in primary health care have not been successful. Many frequent clinical problems recorded in electronic patient records may indicate an increased risk for alcohol related health problems. The hazard ratios were modest and the resulting predictive model was unsatisfactory for diagnostic purposes. If we accepted a sensitivity as low as 0.50, the specificity slightly exceeded 0.75. With a low prevalent condition, it is obvious that the false positive problem will be vast. In addition to responding to elevated blood levels of liver enzymes, general practitioners should be aware of alcohol as a potentially relevant factor for patients with repeated events of many mental and psychosocial diagnoses and new sick leaves and repeated prescriptions of addictive drugs.