Integrating community-based verbal autopsy into civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS): system-level considerations

Under-5 mortality surveillance in low-income and middle-income countries: insights from two Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems in rural Gambia

Without complete data on under-5 mortality, tracking progress towards achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 will be challenging. Such data are also needed to ensure proper planning and prioritisation of scarce resources in low-income and middle-income countries. However, most low-income and middle-income countries have weak Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) systems, leaving a critical gap in understanding under-5 mortality dynamics. This paper outlines a community-based approach to enhance under-5 mortality surveillance in low-income countries, using The Gambia as a case study. The methodology involves Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSSs) in Basse and Fuladu West, employing unique identification numbers, periodical household visits and collaboration with communities, village reporters and project field workers to ensure comprehensive data collection. Verbal autopsies (VAs) are conducted by trained field workers, and causes of death are determined using the physician-certified VA method. Between 1 September 2019 and 1 September 2023, 1333 deaths were detected, for which causes of death were determined for 97.1% (1294 of 1333). The most common causes of death detected were acute respiratory infections including pneumonia, sepsis, diarrhoeal diseases and birth asphyxia. Challenges include the cost of maintaining the HDSSs, poor road infrastructure, Electronic Data Capture transition challenges, and the need for national integration of HDSS data into the CRVS system. The success of this model highlights its potential for scalable and adaptable under-5 mortality surveillance in resource-limited settings.

Exploring challenges and recommendations for verbal autopsy implementation in low-/middle-income countries: a cross-sectional study of Iringa Region-Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Verbal autopsy (VA) plays a vital role in providing cause-of-death information in places where such information is not available. Many low-/middle-income countries (LMICs) including Tanzania are still struggling to yield quality and adequate cause-of-death data for Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS).

OBJECTIVE

To highlight challenges and recommendations for VA implementation to support LMICs yield quality and adequate mortality statistics for informed decisions on healthcare interventions.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

STUDY SETTING

Iringa region in Tanzania.

PARTICIPANTS

41 people including 33 community health workers, 1 VA national coordinator, 5 national task force members, 1 VA regional coordinator and 1 member of the VA data management team.

RESULTS

The perceived challenges of key informants include a weak death notification system, lengthy VA questionnaire, poor data quality and inconsistent responses, lack of clarity in the inclusion criteria, poor commitment to roles and responsibilities, poor coordination, poor financial mechanism and no or delayed feedback to VA implementers. Based on these findings, we recommend the following strategies for effective adaptation and use of VAs: (1) reinforce or implement legislative procedures towards the legal requirement for death notification. (2) Engage key stakeholders in the overall implementation of VAs. (3) Build capacity for data collection, monitoring, processing and use of VA data. (4) Improve the VA questionnaire and quality control mechanism for optimal use in data collection. (5) Create sustainable financing mechanisms and institutionalisation of VA implementation. (6) Integrating VA Implementation in CRVS.

CONCLUSION

Effective VA implementation demands through planning, stakeholder engagement, upskilling of local experts and fair compensation for interviewers. Such coordinated endeavours will overcome systemic, technical and behavioural challenges hindering VA's successful implementation.

Ethical and cultural implications for conducting verbal autopsies in South and Southeast Asia: a qualitative study

INTRODUCTION

Causes of deaths often go unrecorded in lower income countries, yet this information is critical. Verbal autopsy is a questionnaire interview with a family member or caregiver to elicit the symptoms and circumstances preceding a death and assign a probable cause. The social and cultural aspects of verbal autopsy have gotten less attention than the technical aspects and have not been widely explored in South and Southeast Asia settings.

METHODS

Between October 2021 and March 2023, prior to implementing a verbal autopsy study at rural sites in Bangladesh, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Thailand, focus group discussions were conducted with village heads, religious leaders and community members from varied demographic backgrounds. Thematic analysis elucidated customs and traditional views surrounding death to understand local ethnocultural sensitivities.

RESULTS

We found that death rituals varied greatly among religions, ethnicities and by socioeconomic status. Mourning periods were reported to last 3-100 days and related to the cause of death, age and how close the deceased person was to the family. Participants advised that interviews should happen after mourning periods to avoid emotional distress, but not long after so as to avoid recall bias. Interviewers should be introduced to respondents by a trusted local person. To provide reassurance and confidentiality, a family's residence is the preferred interview location. Interview questions require careful local language translation, and community sensitisation is important before data collection.

CONCLUSION

Verbal autopsy is acceptable across a wide range of cultural settings in Southeast Asia, provided that local norms are preidentified and followed.

Cardiovascular disease mortality based on verbal autopsy in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

Objective

To conduct a systematic review of verbal autopsy studies in low- and middle-income countries to estimate the fraction of deaths due to cardiovascular disease.

Method

We searched MEDLINE®, Embase® and Scopus databases for verbal autopsy studies in low- and middle-income countries that reported deaths from cardiovascular disease. Two reviewers screened the studies, extracted data and assessed study quality. We calculated cause-specific mortality fractions for cardiovascular disease for each study, both overall and according to age, sex, geographical location and type of cardiovascular disease.

Findings

We identified 42 studies for inclusion in the review. Overall, the cardiovascular disease cause-specific mortality fractions for people aged 15 years and above was 22.9%. This fraction was generally higher for males (24.7%) than females (20.9%), but the pattern varied across World Health Organization regions. The highest cardiovascular disease mortality fraction was reported in the Western Pacific Region (26.3%), followed by the South-East Asia Region (24.1%) and the African Region (12.7%). The cardiovascular disease mortality fraction was higher in urban than rural populations in all regions, except the South-East Asia Region. The mortality fraction for ischaemic heart disease (12.3%) was higher than that for stroke (8.7%). Overall, 69.4% of cardiovascular disease deaths were reported in people aged 65 years and above.

Conclusion

The burden of cardiovascular disease deaths outside health-care settings in low- and middle-income countries is substantial. Increasing coverage of verbal autopsies in these countries could help fill gaps in cardiovascular disease mortality data and improve monitoring of national, regional and global health goals.

Undiagnosed Pulmonary Tuberculosis (TB) and Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Adults Dying at Home in a High-TB-Burden Setting, Before and During Pandemic COVID-19: An Autopsy Study

BACKGROUND

Missing or undiagnosed patients with tuberculosis (TB) or coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are of concern. Identifying both infections in patients with no diagnosis prior to death contributes to understanding the burden of disease. To confirm reports of global reduction in TB incidence, a 2012 autopsy study of adults dying at home of natural causes in a high-TB-burden setting was repeated, including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) assessments after the first COVID-19 surge in South Africa.

METHODS

Adult decedents who died at home with insufficient information to determine cause of death, no recent hospitalization, and no current antemortem TB or COVID-19 diagnosis were identified between March 2019 and October 2020 with a 4-month halt during lockdown. A standardized verbal autopsy followed by minimally invasive needle autopsy (MIA) was performed. Biopsies were taken for histopathology from liver, bilateral brain and lung; bronchoalveolar lavage fluid was collected for Xpert (MTB/RIF) and mycobacterial culture, and blood for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing. After the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, a nasopharyngeal swab and lung tissue were subjected to SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing.

RESULTS

Sixty-six MIAs were completed in 25 men and 41 women (median age, 60 years); 68.2% had antemortem respiratory symptoms and 30.3% were people with HIV. Overall, TB was diagnosed in 11 of 66 (16.7%) decedents, and 14 of 41 (34.1%) in the COVID-19 pandemic were SARS-CoV-2 positive.

CONCLUSIONS

Undiagnosed TB in adults dying at home has decreased but remains unacceptably high. Forty percent of decedents had undiagnosed COVID-19, suggesting that estimates of excess deaths may underestimate the impact of SARS-CoV-2 on mortality.

A roadmap for using DHIS2 data to track progress in key health indicators in the Global South: experience from sub-saharan Africa

High quality health data as collected by health management information systems (HMIS) is an important building block of national health systems. District Health Information System 2 (DHIS2) software is an innovation in data management and monitoring for strengthening HMIS that has been widely implemented in low and middle-income countries in the last decade. However, analysts and decision-makers still face significant challenges in fully utilizing the capabilities of DHIS2 data to pursue national and international health agendas. We aimed to (i) identify the most relevant health indicators captured by DHIS2 for tracking progress towards the Sustainable Development goals in sub-Saharan African countries and (ii) present a clear roadmap for improving DHIS2 data quality and consistency, with a special focus on immediately actionable solutions. We identified that key indicators in child and maternal health (e.g. vaccine coverage, maternal deaths) are currently being tracked in the DHIS2 of most countries, while other indicators (e.g. HIV/AIDS) would benefit from streamlining the number of indicators collected and standardizing case definitions. Common data issues included unreliable denominators for calculation of incidence, differences in reporting among health facilities, and programmatic differences in data quality. We proposed solutions for many common data pitfalls at the analysis level, including standardized data cleaning pipelines, k-means clustering to identify high performing health facilities in terms of data quality, and imputation methods. While we focus on immediately actionable solutions for DHIS2 analysts, improvements at the point of data collection are the most rigorous. By investing in improving data quality and monitoring, countries can leverage the current global attention on health data to strengthen HMIS and progress towards national and international health priorities.

Enhancing the value of death registration with verbal autopsy data: a pilot study in the Senegalese urban population in 2019

BACKGROUND

There is no source of data on causes of death in Senegal that covers both community and hospital deaths. Yet the death registration system in the Dakar region is relatively complete (>80%) and could be expanded to provide information on the diseases and injuries that led to death.

METHODS

In this pilot study, we recorded all deaths that occurred over 2 months and were reported in the 72 civil registration offices in the Dakar region. We selected the deaths of residents of the region and administered a verbal autopsy to a relative of the deceased to identify the underlying causes of death. Causes of death were assigned using the InterVA5 model.

RESULTS

The age structure of deaths registered at the civil registry differed from that of the census, with a proportion of infant deaths about twice as high as in the census. The main causes of death were prematurity and obstetric asphyxia in newborns. Meningitis and encephalitis, severe malnutrition, and acute respiratory infections were the leading causes from 1 month to 15 years of age. Cardiovascular diseases accounted for 27% of deaths in adults aged 15-64 and 45% of deaths among adults above age 65, while neoplasms accounted for 20% and 12% of deaths in these two age groups, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates that the epidemiological transition is at an advanced stage in urban areas of Dakar, and underlines the importance of conducting regular studies based on verbal autopsies of deaths reported in civil registration offices.

The Need to Address Fragmentation and Silos in Mortality Information Systems: The Case of Ghana and Peru

Objectives: We aimed to understand the information architecture and degree of integration of mortality surveillance systems in Ghana and Peru. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study using a combination of document review and unstructured interviews to describe and analyse the sub-systems collecting mortality data. Results: We identified 18 and 16 information subsystems with independent databases capturing death events in Peru and Ghana respectively. The mortality information architecture was highly fragmented with a multiplicity of unconnected data silos and with formal and informal data collection systems. Conclusion: Reliable and timely information about who dies where and from what underlying cause is essential to reporting progress on Sustainable Development Goals, ensuring policies are responding to population health dynamics, and understanding the impact of threats and events like the COVID-19 pandemic. Integrating systems hosted in different parts of government remains a challenge for countries and limits the ability of statistics systems to produce accurate and timely information. Our study exposes multiple opportunities to improve the design of mortality surveillance systems by integrating existing subsystems currently operating in silos.

Validation studies of verbal autopsy methods: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Verbal autopsy (VA) has emerged as an increasingly popular technique to assign cause of death in parts of the world where the majority of deaths occur without proper medical certification. The purpose of this study was to examine the key characteristics of studies that have attempted to validate VA cause of death against an established cause of death.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted by searching the MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane-library, and Scopus electronic databases. Included studies contained 1) a VA component, 2) a validation component, and 3) original analysis or re-analysis. Characteristics of VA studies were extracted. A total of 527 studies were assessed, and 481 studies screened to give 66 studies selected for data extraction.

RESULTS

Sixty-six studies were included from multiple countries. Ten studies used an existing database. Sixteen studies used the World Health Organization VA questionnaire and 5 studies used the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium VA questionnaire. Physician certification was used in 36 studies and computer coded methods were used in 14 studies. Thirty-seven studies used high level comparator data with detailed laboratory investigations.

CONCLUSION

Most studies found VA to be an effective cause of death assignment method and compared VA cause of death to a high-quality established cause of death. Nonetheless, there were inconsistencies in the methodologies of the validation studies, and many used poor quality comparison cause of death data. Future VA validation studies should adhere to consistent methodological criteria so that policymakers can easily interpret the findings to select the most appropriate VA method.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION

CRD42020186886.

Strengthening causes of death identification through community-based verbal autopsy during the COVID-19 pandemic

Introduction

Indonesia has not optimally provided complete and reliable civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS). Death certification is one of the elements of the CRVS system. Reliable data on death rates and causes serve as the basis for building a strong evidence base for public health policy, planning, monitoring, and evaluation. This study aims to implement an approach to identifying the cause of death through verbal autopsy by empowering community health workers during the pandemic.

Method

This study is implementation research with the empowerment of the community, in this case, health cadres and health facilitators/workers, to identify the cause of death through a mobile-based verbal autopsy. This implementation research consisted of four main activities: community-based verbal autopsy, mobile-based verbal autopsy development, data collection, and analysis of the suspected causes of death using InterVA-5.

Result

From October to November 2020, a total of 143 respondents were willing to do a verbal autopsy interview (response rate of 58%). Of 143 respondents, most of them were women (112 or 78.3%), was the child of the deceased (61 or 42.7%) and lived with the deceased until before he/she died (120 or 83.9%). Based on the characteristics of the deceased, of 143 deceased, 78 (54.5%) were male, 134 (93.7%) were adults, 100 (69.9%) died at home, and 119 (83.2%) did not have a death certificate stating the cause of death. The cause of death of 143 deceased mainly was infectious disease (92 or 64.3%), followed by non-communicable disease (39 or 27.3%), external factors (5 or 3.5%), and unknown factors (4 or 2.8%). In sequence, the top five suspected causes of death are acute respiratory infection, including pneumonia (72 or 50.3%), other and unspecified infectious disease (18 or 12.6%), other and unspecified cardiac disease (17 or 11.9%), acute cardiac disease (4 or 2.8%), and Digestive neoplasms (4 or 2.8%).

Conclusion

The findings showed that the mobile-based verbal autopsy using a community-based mechanism was feasible during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Validation of SmartVA using conventional autopsy: A study of adult deaths in Brazil

BACKGROUND

Accurate cause of death data are essential to guide health policy. However, mortality surveillance is limited in many low-income countries. In such settings, verbal autopsy (VA) is increasingly used to provide population-level cause of death data. VAs are now widely interpreted using the automated algorithms SmartVA and InterVA. Here we use conventional autopsy as the gold standard to validate SmartVA methodology.

METHODS

This study included adult deaths from natural causes in São Paulo and Recife for which conventional autopsy was indicated. VA was conducted with a relative of the deceased using an amended version of the SmartVA instrument to suit the local context. Causes of death from VA were produced using the SmartVA-Analyze program. Physician coded verbal autopsy (PCVA), conducted on the same questionnaires, and Global Burden of Disease Study data were used as additional comparators. Cause of death data were grouped into 10 broad causes for the validation due to the real-world utility of VA lying in identifying broad population cause of death patterns.

FINDINGS

The study included 2,060 deaths in São Paulo and 1,079 in Recife. The cause specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) estimated using SmartVA were broadly similar to conventional autopsy for: cardiovascular diseases (46.8% vs 54.0%, respectively), cancers (10.6% vs 11.4%), infections (7.0% vs 10.4%) and chronic respiratory disease (4.1% vs 3.7%), causes accounting for 76.1% of the autopsy dataset. The SmartVA CSMF estimates were lower than autopsy for "Other NCDs" (7.8% vs 14.6%) and higher for diabetes (13.0% vs 6.6%). CSMF accuracy of SmartVA compared to autopsy was 84.5%. CSMF accuracy for PCVA was 93.0%.

INTERPRETATION

The results suggest that SmartVA can, with reasonable accuracy, predict the broad cause of death groups important to assess a population's epidemiological transition. VA remains a useful tool for understanding causes of death where medical certification is not possible.

Social and demographic correlates of cardiovascular mortality in the Kassena-Nankana districts of Ghana: a verbal post-mortem analysis

BACKGROUND

The burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Ghana is rising, but details on its epidemiology are scarce. We sought to quantify mortality due to CVD in two districts in rural Ghana using verbal post-mortem (VPM) data.

METHODS

We conducted a proportional sub-hazards analysis of 10 232 deaths in the Kassena-Nankana East and West districts from 2005 to 2012, to determine adult mortality attributed to CVD over time. We stratified results by age, gender and socio-economic status (SES), and compared CVD mortality among SES and gender strata over time. A competing risk model estimated the cumulative effect of eliminating CVD from the area.

RESULTS

From 2005 to 2012, CVD mortality more than doubled overall, from 0.51 deaths for every 1000 person-years in 2005 to 1.08 per 1000 person-years in 2012. Mortality peaked in 2008 at 1.23 deaths per 1000 person-years. Increases were comparable in men (2.0) and women (2.3), but greater among the poorest residents (3.3) than the richest (1.3), and among persons aged 55-69 years (2.1) than those aged ≥70 years (1.8). By 2012, male and female CVD mortality was highest in middle-SES persons. We project that eliminating CVD would increase the number of individuals reaching age 73 years from 35% to 40%, adding 1.6 years of life expectancy.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of CVD on overall mortality in the Upper East Region is substantial and markedly increasing. CVD mortality has especially increased in lower-income persons and persons in middle age. Further initiatives for the surveillance and control of CVD in these vulnerable populations are needed.

Generating cause of death information to inform health policy: implementation of an automated verbal autopsy system in the Solomon Islands

Background

Good quality cause of death (COD) information is fundamental for formulating and evaluating public health policy; yet most deaths in developing countries, including the Solomon Islands, occur at home without medical certification of cause of death (MCCOD). As a result, COD data in such contexts are often of limited use for policy and planning. Verbal autopsies (VAs) are a cost-effective way of generating reliable COD information in populations lacking comprehensive MCCOD coverage, but this method has not previously been applied in the Solomon Islands. This study describes the establishment of a VA system to estimate the cause specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) for community deaths that are not medically certified in the Solomon Islands.

Methods

Automated VA methods (SmartVA) were introduced into the Solomon Islands in 2016. Trained data collectors (nurses) conducted VAs on eligible deaths to December 2020 using electronic tablet devices and VA responses were analysed using the Tariff 2.0 automated diagnostic algorithm. CSMFs were generated for both non-inpatient deaths in hospitals (i.e. ‘dead on/by arrival’) and community deaths.

Results

VA was applied to 914 adolescent-and-adult deaths with a median (IQR) age of 62 (45–75) years, 61% of whom were males. A specific COD could be diagnosed for more than 85% of deaths. The leading causes of death for both sexes combined were: ischemic heart disease (16.3%), stroke (13.5%), diabetes (8.1%), pneumonia (5.7%) and chronic-respiratory disease (4.8%). Stroke was the top-ranked cause for females, and ischaemic heart disease the leading cause for males. The CSMFs from the VAs were similar to Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates. Overall, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) accounted for 73% of adult deaths; communicable, maternal and nutritional conditions 15%, and injuries 12%. Six of the ten leading causes reported for facility deaths in the Solomon Islands were also identified as leading causes of community deaths based on the VA diagnoses.

Conclusions

NCDs are the leading cause of adult deaths in the Solomon Islands. Automated VA methods are an effective means of generating reliable COD information for community deaths in the Solomon Islands and should be routinely incorporated into the national mortality surveillance system.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-12180-y.

Integrating community-based verbal autopsy into civil registration and vital statistics: lessons learnt from five countries

This paper describes the lessons from scaling up a verbal autopsy (VA) intervention to improve data about causes of death according to a nine-domain framework: governance, design, operations, human resources, financing, infrastructure, logistics, information technologies and data quality assurance. We use experiences from China, Myanmar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines and Solomon Islands to explore how VA has been successfully implemented in different contexts, to guide other countries in their VA implementation. The governance structure for VA implementation comprised a multidisciplinary team of technical experts, implementers and staff at different levels within ministries. A staged approach to VA implementation involved scoping and mapping of death registration processes, followed by pretest and pilot phases which allowed for redesign before a phased scale-up. Existing health workforce in countries were trained to conduct the VA interviews as part of their routine role. Costs included training and compensation for the VA interviewers, information technology (IT) infrastructure costs, advocacy and dissemination, which were borne by the funding agency in early stages of implementation. The complexity of the necessary infrastructure, logistics and IT support required for VA increased with scale-up. Quality assurance was built into the different phases of the implementation. VA as a source of cause of death data for community deaths will be needed for some time. With the right technical and political support, countries can scale up this intervention to ensure ongoing collection of quality and timely information on community deaths for use in health planning and better monitoring of national and global health goals.

Estimating causes of death where there is no medical certification: evolution and state of the art of verbal autopsy

Over the past 70 years, significant advances have been made in determining the causes of death in populations not served by official medical certification of cause at the time of death using a technique known as Verbal Autopsy (VA). VA involves an interview of the family or caregivers of the deceased after a suitable bereavement interval about the circumstances, signs and symptoms of the deceased in the period leading to death. The VA interview data are then interpreted by physicians or, more recently, computer algorithms, to assign a probable cause of death. VA was originally developed and applied in field research settings. This paper traces the evolution of VA methods with special emphasis on the World Health Organization's (WHO)'s efforts to standardize VA instruments and methods for expanded use in routine health information and vital statistics systems in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). These advances in VA methods are culminating this year with the release of the 2022 WHO Standard Verbal Autopsy (VA) Toolkit. This paper highlights the many contributions the late Professor Peter Byass made to the current VA standards and methods, most notably, the development of InterVA, the most commonly used automated computer algorithm for interpreting data collected in the WHO standard instruments, and the capacity building in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) that he promoted. This paper also provides an overview of the methods used to improve the current WHO VA standards, a catalogue of the changes and improvements in the instruments, and a mapping of current applications of the WHO VA standard approach in LMICs. It also provides access to tools and guidance needed for VA implementation in Civil Registration and Vital Statistics Systems at scale.

Improving quality of medical certification of causes of death in health facilities in Tanzania 2014-2019

BACKGROUND

Monitoring medically certified causes of death is essential to shape national health policies, track progress to Sustainable Development Goals, and gauge responses to epidemic and pandemic disease. The combination of electronic health information systems with new methods for data quality monitoring can facilitate quality assessments and help target quality improvement. Since 2015, Tanzania has been upgrading its Civil Registration and Vital Statistics system including efforts to improve the availability and quality of mortality data.

METHODS

We used a computer application (ANACONDA v4.01) to assess the quality of medical certification of cause of death (MCCD) and ICD-10 coding for the underlying cause of death for 155,461 deaths from health facilities from 2014 to 2018. From 2018 to 2019, we continued quality analysis for 2690 deaths in one large administrative region 9 months before, and 9 months following MCCD quality improvement interventions. Interventions addressed governance, training, process, and practice. We assessed changes in the levels, distributions, and nature of unusable and insufficiently specified codes, and how these influenced estimates of the leading causes of death.

RESULTS

9.7% of expected annual deaths in Tanzania obtained a medically certified cause of death. Of these, 52% of MCCD ICD-10 codes were usable for health policy and planning, with no significant improvement over 5 years. Of certified deaths, 25% had unusable codes, 17% had insufficiently specified codes, and 6% were undetermined causes. Comparing the before and after intervention periods in one Region, codes usable for public health policy purposes improved from 48 to 65% within 1 year and the resulting distortions in the top twenty cause-specific mortality fractions due to unusable causes reduced from 27.4 to 13.5%.

CONCLUSION

Data from less than 5% of annual deaths in Tanzania are usable for informing policy. For deaths with medical certification, errors were prevalent in almost half. This constrains capacity to monitor the 15 SDG indicators that require cause-specific mortality. Sustainable quality assurance mechanisms and interventions can result in rapid improvements in the quality of medically certified causes of death. ANACONDA provides an effective means for evaluation of such changes and helps target interventions to remaining weaknesses.

Verbal autopsy models in determining causes of death

OBJECTIVES

To systematically review current practices, strengths and limitations of existing VA approaches to increase understanding of health system stakeholders and researchers.

METHODS

The review was conducted and reported based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines, in which articles were systematically obtained from the PubMed and SCOPUS online databases. The search was limited to English language journal articles published between 2010 and 2020. The review identified 5602 articles and after thorough scrutiny, 25 articles related to VA approaches were included.

RESULTS

(1) InterVA and Tariff are widely used VA models; (2) Bayes rule is the most common and successful algorithm; (3) the lack of standardised datasets and metrics to evaluate models creates bias in determining VA model performance; (4) performance of the models trained using in-hospital data cannot be replicated in community death; (5) the performance of models among physicians and computer-coded algorithms differs with variation in settings.

CONCLUSION

The physician-certified verbal autopsy (PCVA) approaches are more effective in determining community CoD while computerised coding of verbal autopsy (CCVA) models perform well when the underlying CoD are reliably established using hospital data where data are trained in a similar environment to the target population. Our study recommends the use of hybrid models that combine strengths from various models and using an open standards dataset that includes death from different settings.

Motivations and barriers to death registration in Dakar, Senegal

Strengthening civil registration systems requires a better understanding of motivations and barriers related to the registration of deaths. We used data from the 2013 Senegalese census to identify deaths that are more likely to be registered in the Dakar region, where the completeness of death registration is higher than 80%. We also interviewed relatives of the deceased whose death had been registered to collect data on reasons for registration and sources of information about the process. The likelihood of death registration was positively associated with age at death and household wealth. Death registration was also more likely in households whose head was older, had attended school, and had a birth certificate. At the borough commune level, the geographical accessibility of civil registration centres and population density were both positively associated with completeness of death registration. The main motivations for registering deaths were compliance with the legal obligation to do so and willingness to obtain a burial permit and a death certificate. Families, health facilities, and friends were the primary sources of information about death registration. Further research is needed to identify effective interventions to increase death registration completeness in Dakar, particularly amongst the poorest households and neighbourhoods on the outskirts of the city.

The ethical implications of verbal autopsy: responding to emotional and moral distress

Background

Verbal autopsy is a pragmatic approach for generating cause-of-death data in contexts without well-functioning civil registration and vital statistics systems. It has primarily been conducted in health and demographic surveillance systems (HDSS) in Africa and Asia. Although significant resources have been invested to develop the technical aspects of verbal autopsy, ethical issues have received little attention. We explored the benefits and burdens of verbal autopsy in HDSS settings and identified potential strategies to respond to the ethical issues identified.

Methods

This research was based on a case study approach centred on two contrasting HDSS in Kenya and followed the Mapping-Framing-Shaping Framework for empirical bioethics research. Data were collected through individual interviews, focus group discussions, document reviews and non-participant observations. 115 participants were involved, including 86 community members (HDSS residents and community representatives), and 29 research staff (HDSS managers, researchers, census field workers and verbal autopsy interviewers).

Results

The use of verbal autopsy data for research and public health was described as the most common potential benefit of verbal autopsy in HDSS. Community members mentioned the potential uses of verbal autopsy data in addressing immediate public health problems for the local population while research staff emphasized the benefits of verbal autopsy to research and the wider public. The most prominent burden associated with the verbal autopsy was emotional distress for verbal autopsy interviewers and respondents. Moral events linked to the interview, such as being unsure of the right thing to do (moral uncertainty) or knowing the right thing to do and being constrained from acting (moral constraint), emerged as key causes of emotional distress for verbal autopsy interviewers.

Conclusions

The collection of cause-of-death data through verbal autopsy in HDSS settings presents important ethical and emotional challenges for verbal autopsy interviewers and respondents. These challenges include emotional distress for respondents and moral distress for interviewers. This empirical ethics study provides detailed accounts of the distress caused by verbal autopsy and highlights ethical tensions between potential population benefits and risks to individuals. It includes recommendations for policy and practice to address emotional and moral distress in verbal autopsy.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12910-021-00683-7.

Causes and circumstances of maternal death: a secondary analysis of the Community-Level Interventions for Pre-eclampsia (CLIP) trials cohort

BACKGROUND

Incomplete vital registration systems mean that causes of death during pregnancy and childbirth are poorly understood in low-income and middle-income countries. To inform global efforts to reduce maternal mortality, we compared physician review and computerised analysis of verbal autopsies (interpreting verbal autopsies [InterVA] software), to understand their agreement on maternal cause of death and circumstances of mortality categories (COMCATs) in the Community-Level Interventions for Pre-eclampsia (CLIP) cluster randomised trials.

METHODS

The CLIP trials took place in India, Pakistan, and Mozambique, enrolling pregnant women aged 12-49 years between Nov 1, 2014, and Feb 28, 2017. 69 330 pregnant women were enrolled in 44 clusters (36 008 in the 22 intervention clusters and 33 322 in the 22 control clusters). In this secondary analysis of maternal deaths in CLIP, we included women who died in any of the 22 intervention clusters or 22 control clusters. Trained staff administered the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy after maternal deaths. Two physicians (and a third for consensus, if needed) reviewed trial surveillance data and verbal autopsies, and, in intervention clusters, community health worker-led visit data. They determined cause of death according to the WHO International Classification of Diseases-Maternal Mortality (ICD-MM). Verbal autopsies were also analysed by InterVA computer models (versions 4 and 5) to generate cause of death. COMCAT analysis was provided by InterVA-5 and, in India, by physician review of Maternal Newborn Health Registry data. Causes of death and COMCATs assigned by physician review, Inter-VA-4, and InterVA-5 were compared, with agreement assessed with Cohen's κ coefficient.

FINDINGS

Of 61 988 pregnancies with successful follow-up in the CLIP trials, 143 maternal deaths were reported (16 deaths in India, 105 in Pakistan, and 22 in Mozambique). The maternal death rate was 231 (95% CI 193-268) per 100 000 identified pregnancies. Most deaths were attributed to direct maternal causes (rather than indirect or undetermined causes as per ICD-MM classification), with fair to good agreement between physician review and InterVA-4 (κ=0·56 [95% CI 0·43-0·66]) or InterVA-5 (κ=0·44 [0·30-0·57]), and InterVA-4 and InterVA-5 (κ=0·72 [0·60-0·84]). The top three causes of death were the same by physician review, InterVA-4, and InterVA-5 (ICD-MM categories obstetric haemorrhage, non-obstetric complications, and hypertensive disorders); however, attribution of individual patient deaths to obstetric haemorrhage varied more between methods (physician review, 38 [27%] deaths; InterVA-4, 69 [48%] deaths; and InterVA-5, 82 [57%] deaths), than did attribution to non-obstetric causes (physician review, 39 [27%] deaths; InterVA-4, 37 [26%] deaths; and InterVA-5, 28 [20%] deaths) or hypertensive disorders (physician review, 23 [16%] deaths; InterVA-4, 25 [17%] deaths; and InterVA-5, 24 [17%] deaths). Agreement for all nine ICD-MM categories was fair for physician review versus InterVA-4 (κ=0·48 [0·38-0·58]), poor for physician review versus InterVA-5 (κ=0·36 [0·27-0·46]), and good for InterVA-4 versus InterVA-5 (κ=0·69 [0·59-0·79]). The most commonly assigned COMCATs by InterVA-5 were emergencies (68 [48%] of 143 deaths) and health systems (62 [43%] deaths), and by physician review (India only) were health systems (seven [44%] of 16 deaths) and inevitability (five [31%] deaths); agreement between InterVA-5 and physician review (India data only) was poor (κ=0·04 [0·00-0·15]).

INTERPRETATION

Our findings indicate that InterVA-5 is less accurate than InterVA-4 at ascertaining causes and circumstances of maternal death, when compared with physician review. Our results suggest a need to improve the next iteration of InterVA, and for researchers and clinicians to preferentially use InterVA-4 when recording maternal deaths.

FUNDING

University of British Columbia (grantee of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation).

Birth and death notification via mobile devices: a mixed methods systematic review

BACKGROUND

Ministries of health, donors, and other decision-makers are exploring how they can use mobile technologies to acquire accurate and timely statistics on births and deaths. These stakeholders have called for evidence-based guidance on this topic. This review was carried out to support World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations on digital interventions for health system strengthening.

OBJECTIVES

Primary objective: To assess the effects of birth notification and death notification via a mobile device, compared to standard practice. Secondary objectives: To describe the range of strategies used to implement birth and death notification via mobile devices and identify factors influencing the implementation of birth and death notification via mobile devices.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, the Global Health Library, and POPLINE (August 2, 2019). We searched two trial registries (August 2, 2019). We also searched Epistemonikos for related systematic reviews and potentially eligible primary studies (August 27, 2019). We conducted a grey literature search using mHealthevidence.org (August 15, 2017) and issued a call for papers through popular digital health communities of practice. Finally, we conducted citation searches of included studies in Web of Science and Google Scholar (May 15, 2020). We searched for studies published after 2000 in any language.  SELECTION CRITERIA: For the primary objective, we included individual and cluster-randomised trials; cross-over and stepped-wedge study designs; controlled before-after studies, provided they have at least two intervention sites and two control sites; and interrupted time series studies. For the secondary objectives, we included any study design, either quantitative, qualitative, or descriptive, that aimed to describe current strategies for birth and death notification via mobile devices; or to explore factors that influence the implementation of these strategies, including studies of acceptability or feasibility. For the primary objective, we included studies that compared birth and death notification via mobile devices with standard practice. For the secondary objectives, we included studies of birth and death notification via mobile device as long as we could extract data relevant to our secondary objectives. We included studies of all cadres of healthcare providers, including lay health workers; administrative, managerial, and supervisory staff; focal individuals at the village or community level; children whose births were being notified and their parents/caregivers; and individuals whose deaths were being notified and their relatives/caregivers.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

For the primary objective, two authors independently screened all records, extracted data from the included studies and assessed risk of bias. For the analyses of the primary objective, we reported means and proportions, where appropriate. We used the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach to assess the certainty of the evidence and we prepared a 'Summary of Findings' table. For the secondary objectives, two authors screened all records, one author extracted data from the included studies and assessed methodological limitations using the WEIRD tool and a second author checked the data and assessments. We carried out a framework analysis using the Supporting the Use of Research Evidence (SURE) framework to identify themes in the data. We used the GRADE-CERQual (Confidence in the Evidence from Reviews of Qualitative research) approach to assess our confidence in the evidence and we prepared a 'Summary of Qualitative Findings' table.

MAIN RESULTS

For the primary objective, we included one study, which used a controlled before-after study design. The study was conducted in Lao People's Democratic Republic and assessed the effect of using mobile devices for birth notification on outcomes related to coverage and timeliness of Hepatitis B vaccination. However, we are uncertain of the effect of this approach on these outcomes because the certainty of this evidence was assessed as very low. The included study did not assess resource use or unintended consequences. For the primary objective, we did not identify any studies using mobile devices for death notification. For the secondary objective, we included 21 studies. All studies were conducted in low- or middle-income settings. They focussed on identification of births and deaths in rural, remote, or marginalised populations who are typically under-represented in civil registration processes or traditionally seen as having poor access to health services. The review identified several factors that could influence the implementation of birth-death notification via mobile device. These factors were tied to the health system, the person responsible for notifying, the community and families; and include: - Geographic barriers that could prevent people's access to birth-death notification and post-notification services - Access to health workers and other notifiers with enough training, supervision, support, and incentives - Monitoring systems that ensure the quality and timeliness of the birth and death data - Legal frameworks that allow births and deaths to be notified by mobile device and by different types of notifiers - Community awareness of the need to register births and deaths - Socio-cultural norms around birth and death - Government commitment - Cost to the system, to health workers and to families - Access to electricity and network connectivity, and compatibility with existing systems - Systems that protect data confidentiality We have low to moderate confidence in these findings. This was mainly because of concerns about methodological limitations and data adequacy.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We need more, well-designed studies of the effect of birth and death notification via mobile devices and on factors that may influence its implementation.

Potentials of community-based early detection of cardiovascular disease risk during the COVID-19 pandemic

Background

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to a significant decline in Non Communicable Diseases (NCD) screening and early detection activities, especially Cardiovascular Disease (CVD). This study aims to assess the potential of community-based self-screening of CVD risk through the mhealth application.

Methods

This is operational research by actively involving the community to carry out self-screening through the mHealth application. Community health workers were recruited as facilitators who encourage the community to carry out self-screening. To evaluate the potential of community-based self-screening of CVD risk, we use several indicators: responses rate, level of CVD risk, and community acceptance.

Results

Of the 846 individuals reached by the cadres, 53% or 442 individuals carried out self-screening. Based on the results of self-screening of CVD risk, it is known that around 21.3% are at high risk of developing CVD in the next 10 years. The results of the evaluation of semi-structured questions showed that about 48% of the people had positive impressions, 22% assessed that this self-screening could increase awareness and was informative, 3% suggested improvements to self-screening tools.

Conclusion

Cadres play an important role in reaching and facilitating the community in their environment to remain aware of their health conditions by conducting self-screening of CVD risk. The availability of the mHealth application that the public can easily access can simplify CVD risk prediction and expand screening coverage, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, where there are social restrictions policies and community activities.

Mortality surveillance and verbal autopsy strategies: experiences, challenges and lessons learnt in Papua New Guinea

Full notification of deaths and compilation of good quality cause of death data are core, sequential and essential components of a functional civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) system. In collaboration with the Government of Papua New Guinea (PNG), trial mortality surveillance activities were established at sites in Alotau District in Milne Bay Province, Tambul-Nebilyer District in Western Highlands Province and Talasea District in West New Britain Province.Provincial Health Authorities trialled strategies to improve completeness of death notification and implement an automated verbal autopsy methodology, including use of different notification agents and paper or mobile phone methods. Completeness of death notification improved from virtually 0% to 20% in Talasea, 25% and 75% using mobile phone and paper notification strategies, respectively, in Alotau, and 69% in Tambul-Nebilyer. We discuss the challenges and lessons learnt with implementing these activities in PNG, including logistical considerations and incentives.Our experience indicates that strategies to maximise completeness of notification should be tailored to the local context, which in PNG includes significant geographical, cultural and political diversity. We report that health workers have great potential to improve the CRVS programme in PNG through managing the collection of notification and verbal autopsy data. In light of our findings, and in consultation with the main government CRVS stakeholders and the National CRVS Committee, we make recommendations regarding the requirements at each level of the health system to optimise mortality surveillance in order to generate the essential health intelligence required for policy and planning.

Diversity of epidemiological transition in the Pacific: Findings from the application of verbal autopsy in Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands

BACKGROUND

Cause of death data are essential for rational health planning yet are not routinely available in Papua New Guinea (PNG) and Solomon Islands. Indirect estimation of cause of death patterns suggests these populations are epidemiologically similar, but such assessments are not based on direct evidence.

METHODS

Verbal autopsy (VA) interviews were conducted at three sites in PNG and nationwide in Solomon Islands. Training courses were also facilitated to improve data from medical certificates of cause of death (MCCODs) in both countries. Data were categorised into broad groups of endemic and emerging conditions to aid assessment of the epidemiological transition.

FINDINGS

Between 2017 and 2020, VAs were collected for 1,814 adult deaths in PNG and 819 adult deaths in Solomon Islands. MCCODs were analysed for 662 deaths in PNG and 1,408 deaths in Solomon Islands. The VA data suggest lower NCD mortality (48.8% versus 70.3%); higher infectious mortality (27.0% versus 18.3%) and higher injury mortality (24.5% versus 11.4%) in PNG compared to Solomon Islands. Higher infectious mortality in PNG was evident for both endemic and emerging infections. Higher NCD mortality in Solomon Islands reflected much higher emerging NCDs (43.6% vs 21.4% in PNG). A similar pattern was evident from the MCCOD data.

INTERPRETATION

The cause of death patterns suggested by VA and MCCOD indicate that PNG is earlier in its epidemiological transition than Solomon Islands, with relatively higher infectious mortality and lower NCD mortality. Injury mortality was also particularly high in PNG.This study was funded by Bloomberg Philanthropies.

Improving cause of death certification in the Philippines: implementation of an electronic verbal autopsy decision support tool (SmartVA auto-analyse) to aid physician diagnoses of out-of-facility deaths

Background

The majority of deaths in the Philippines occur out-of-facility and require a medical certificate of cause of death by Municipal Health Officers (MHOs) for burial. MHOs lack a standardised certification process for out-of-facility deaths and when no medical records are available, certify a high proportion of ill-defined causes of death. We aimed to develop and introduce SmartVA Auto-Analyse, a verbal autopsy (VA) based electronic decision support tool in order to assist the MHOs in certifying out-of-facility deaths.

Method

We conducted a stakeholder consultation, process mapping and a pre-test to assess feasibility and acceptability of SmartVA Auto-Analyse. MHOs were first asked to conduct an open-ended interview from the family members of the deceased, and if they were not able to arrive at a diagnosis, continue the interview using the standardised SmartVA questionnaire. Auto-Analyse then presented the MHO with the three most likely causes of death. For the pilot, the intervention was scaled-up to 91 municipalities. We performed a mixed-methods evaluation using the cause of death data and group discussions with the MHOs.

Results

Of the 5649 deaths registered, Auto-Analyse was used to certify 4586 (81%). For the remaining 19%, doctors believed they could assign a cause of death based on the availability of medical records and the VA open narrative. When used, physicians used the Auto-Analyse diagnosis in 85% of cases to certify the cause of death. Only 13% of the deaths under the intervention had an undetermined cause of death. Group discussions identified two themes: Auto-Analyse standardized the certification of home deaths and assisted the MHOs to improve the quality of death certification.

Conclusion

Standardized VA combined with physician diagnosis using the SmartVA Auto-Analyse support tool was readily used by MHOs in the Philippines and can improve the quality of death certification of home deaths.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-10542-0.

Does recall time matter in verbal autopsies? Evidence from urban informal settlements in Nairobi, Kenya

Background: To assign a cause of death to non-medically certified deaths, verbal autopsies (VAs) are widely used to determine the cause of death. The time difference between the death and the VA interview, also referred to as recall time, varies depending on social and operational factors surrounding the death. We investigated the effect of recall time on the assignment of causes of death by VA. Methods: This is a secondary analysis of 2002-2015 survey data of the Nairobi Urban Health Demographic Surveillance System (NUHDSS). The independent variable recall time was derived from the date of death and the date when the VA was conducted. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression methods were used to calculate odds ratios of assigning a cause of death in defined categories of recall time. Results: There were 6218 deaths followed up between 2002 and 2016, out of which 5495 (88.3%) had VAs done. Recall time varied from 1-3001 days (median  92 days, IQR 44-169 days). Majority of the VAs (45.7%) were conducted between 1-3 months after death. The effect of recall time varied for different diseases. Compared to VAs conducted between 1-3 months, there was a 24% higher likelihood of identifying HIV/AIDS as the cause of death for VAs conducted 4-6 months after death (AOR 1.24; 95% CI 1.01-1.54; p-value = 0.043) and a 40% increased chance of identifying other infectious diseases as the cause of death for VAs conducted <1 month after death (AOR 1.4; 95% CI 1.02-1.92, p-value = 0.024). Conclusions: Recall time affected the assignment of VA cause of death for HIV/AIDS, other infectious diseases,maternal/neonatal and indeterminate causes. Our analysis indicates that in the urban informal setting, VAs should be conducted from one month up to 6 months after the death to improve the probability of accurately assigning the cause of death.

Estimating the mortality burden of large scale mining projects-Evidence from a prospective mortality surveillance study in Tanzania

We set up a mortality surveillance system around two of the largest gold mines in Tanzania between February 2019 and February 2020 to estimate the mortality impact of gold mines. Death circumstances were collected using a standardized verbal autopsy tool, and causes of death were assigned using the InSilicoVA algorithm. We compared cause-specific mortality fractions in mining communities with other subnational data as well as national estimates. Within mining communities, we estimated mortality risks of mining workers relative to other not working at mines. At the population level, mining communities had higher road-traffic injuries (RTI) (risk difference (RD): 3.1%, Confidence Interval (CI): 0.4%, 5.9%) and non-HIV infectious disease mortality (RD: 5.6%, CI: 0.8%, 10.3%), but lower burden of HIV mortality (RD: -5.9%, CI: -10.2%, -1.6%). Relative to non-miners living in the same communities, mining workers had over twice the mortality risk (relative risk (RR): 2.09, CI: 1.57, 2.79), with particularly large increases for death due to RTIs (RR: 14.26, CI: 4.95, 41.10) and other injuries (RR:10.10, CI: 3.40, 30.02). Our results shows that gold mines continue to be associated with a large mortality burden despite major efforts to ensure the safety in mining communities. Given that most of the additional mortality risk appears to be related to injuries programs targeting these specific risks seem most desirable.

Mortality in India established through verbal autopsies (MINErVA): Strengthening national mortality surveillance system in India

Background

Following data access and storage concerns, Government of India transferred the management of its Sample Registration System (SRS) based mortality surveillance (formerly known as the Million Death Study) to an Indian agency. This paper introduces the new system, challenges it faced and its vision for future.

Methods

The All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), New Delhi, the new nodal agency, established the “Mortality in India Established through Verbal Autopsy” (MINErVA) platform with state level partners across India in November 2017. The network in its first three years has undertaken capacity building of supervisors conducting verbal autopsy under the SRS, established a panel of trained physician reviewers and developed three IT-based platforms for training, quality control and coding. Coding of VA forms started from January 2015 onwards, and the cause specific mortality fractions (CSMF) of the first 14 185 adult verbal autopsy (VA) records for 2015 were compared with earlier published data for 2010-2013 to check for continuity of system performance.

Results

The network consists of 25 institutions and a panel of 676 trained physician reviewers. 916 supervisors have been trained in conducting verbal autopsies. More than 75 000 VA forms have been coded to date. The median time taken for finalizing cause of death on the coding platform is 37 days. The level of physician agreement (67%) and proportion of VA forms requiring adjudication (12%) are consistent with published literature. Preliminary CSMF estimates for 2015 were comparable with those for 2010-2013 and identified same top ten causes of death. In addition to the delay, two major challenges identified for coding were language proficiency of physician reviewers vis-à-vis language of narratives and quality of verbal autopsies. While an initial strategic decision was made to consolidate the system to ensure continuity, future vision of the network is to move towards technology-based solutions including electronic data capture of VAs and its analysis and improving the use of mortality data in decision making.

Conclusion

MINErVA network is now fully functional and is moving towards achieving global standards. It provides valuable lessons for other developing countries to establish their own mortality surveillance systems.

Effect of Mass Treatment with Azithromycin on Causes of Death in Children in Malawi: Secondary Analysis from the MORDOR Trial

Recent evidence indicates mass drug administration with azithromycin may reduce child mortality. This study uses verbal autopsy (VA) to investigate the causes of individual deaths during the Macrolides Oraux pour Réduire les Décès avec un Oeil sur la Résistance (MORDOR) trial in Malawi. Cluster randomization was performed as part of MORDOR. Biannual household visits were conducted to distribute azithromycin or placebo to children aged 1–59 months and update the census to identify deaths for VA. MORDOR was not powered to investigate mortality effects at individual sites, but the available evidence is presented here for hypothesis generation regarding the mechanism through which azithromycin may reduce child mortality. Automated VA analysis was performed to infer the likely cause of death using two major analysis programs, InterVA and SmartVA. A total of 334 communities were randomized to azithromycin or placebo, with more than 130,000 person-years of follow-up. During the study, there were 1,184 deaths, of which 1,131 were followed up with VA. Mortality was 9% lower in azithromycin-treated communities than in placebo communities (rate ratio 0.91 [95% CI: 0.79–1.05]; P = 0.20). The intention-to-treat analysis by cause using InterVA suggested fewer HIV/AIDS deaths in azithromycin-treated communities (rate ratio 0.70 [95% CI: 0.50–0.97]; P = 0.03) and fewer pneumonia deaths (rate ratio 0.82 [95% CI: 0.60–1.12]; P = 0.22). The use of the SmartVA algorithm suggested fewer diarrhea deaths (rate ratio 0.71 [95% CI: 0.51–1.00]; P = 0.05) and fewer pneumonia deaths (rate ratio 0.58 [95% CI: 0.33–1.00]; P = 0.05). Although this study is not able to provide strong evidence, the data suggest that the mortality reduction during MORDOR in Malawi may have been due to effects on pneumonia and diarrhea or HIV/AIDS mortality.

Does recall time matter in verbal autopsies? Evidence from urban informal settlements in Nairobi, Kenya

Background: To assign a cause of death to non-medically certified deaths, verbal autopsies (VAs) are widely used to determine the cause of death. The time difference between the death and the VA interview, also referred to as recall time, varies depending on social and operational factors surrounding the death. We investigated the effect of recall time on the assignment of causes of death by VA. Methods: This is a secondary analysis of 2002-2015 survey data of the Nairobi Urban Health Demographic Surveillance System (NUHDSS). The independent variable recall time was derived from the date of death and the date when the VA was conducted. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression methods were used to calculate odds ratios of assigning a cause of death in defined categories of recall time. Results: There were 6218 deaths followed up between 2002 and 2016, out of which 5495 (88.3%) had VAs done. Recall time varied from 1-3001 days (mean 115.5 days, sd216.8). Majority of the VAs (45.7%) were conducted between 1-3 months after death. The effect of recall time varied for different diseases. Compared to VAs conducted between 1-3 months, there was a 24% higher likelihood of identifying HIV/AIDS as the cause of death for VAs conducted 4-6 months after death (AOR 1.24; 95% CI 1.01-1.54; p-value = 0.043) and a 40% increased chance of identifying other infectious diseases as the cause of death for VAs conducted <1 month after death (AOR 1.4; 95% CI 1.02-1.92, p-value = 0.024). Conclusions: Recall time affected the assignment of VA cause of death for HIV/AIDS, other infectious diseases and maternal/neonatal causes. Our analysis indicates that in the urban informal setting, VAs should be conducted from one month up to 6 months after the death to improve the probability of accurately assigning the cause of death.

Improving the demand for birth registration: a discrete choice experiment in Ethiopia

INTRODUCTION

Birth registration remains limited in most low and middle-income countries. We investigated which characteristics of birth registration facilities might determine caregivers' decisions to register children in Ethiopia.

METHODS

We conducted a discrete choice experiment in randomly selected households in Addis Ababa and the Southern Nations, Nationalities, and People's Region. We interviewed caregivers of children 0-5 years old. We asked participants to make eight choices between pairs of hypothetical registration facilities. These facilities were characterised by six attributes selected through a literature review and consultations with local stakeholders. Levels of these attributes were assigned at random using a fractional design. We analysed the choice data using mixed logit models that account for heterogeneity in preferences across respondents. We calculated respondents' willingness to pay to access registration facilities with specific attributes. We analysed all data separately by place of residence (urban vs rural).

RESULTS

Seven hundred and five respondents made 5614 choices. They exhibited preferences for registration facilities that charged lower fees for birth certificates, that required shorter waiting time to complete procedures and that were located closer to their residence. Respondents preferred registration facilities that were open on weekends, and where they could complete procedures in a single visit. In urban areas, respondents also favoured registration facilities that remained open for extended hours on weekdays, and where the presence of only one of the parents was required for registration. There was significant heterogeneity between respondents in the utility derived from several attributes of registration facilities. Willingness to pay for access to registration facilities with particular attributes was larger in urban than rural areas.

CONCLUSION

In these regions of Ethiopia, changes to the operating schedule of registration facilities and to application procedures might help improve registration rates. Discrete choice experiments can help orient initiatives aimed at improving birth registration.

Where there is no hospital: improving the notification of community deaths

BACKGROUND

Globally, an estimated two-thirds of all deaths occur in the community, the majority of which are not attended by a physician and remain unregistered. Identifying and registering these deaths in civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems, and ascertaining the cause of death, is thus a critical challenge to ensure that policy benefits from reliable evidence on mortality levels and patterns in populations. In contrast to traditional processes for registration, death notification can be faster and more efficient at informing responsible government agencies about the event and at triggering a verbal autopsy for ascertaining cause of death. Thus, innovative approaches to death notification, tailored to suit the setting, can improve the availability and quality of information on community deaths in CRVS systems.

IMPROVING THE NOTIFICATION OF COMMUNITY DEATHS

Here, we present case studies in four countries (Bangladesh, Colombia, Myanmar and Papua New Guinea) that were part of the initial phases of the Bloomberg Data for Health Initiative at the University of Melbourne, each of which faces unique challenges to community death registration. The approaches taken promote improved notification of community deaths through a combination of interventions, including integration with the health sector, using various notifying agents and methods, and the application of information and communication technologies. One key factor for success has been the smoothing of processes linking notification, registration and initiation of a verbal autopsy interview. The processes implemented champion more active notification systems in relation to the passive systems commonly in place in these countries.

CONCLUSIONS

The case studies demonstrate the significant potential for improving death reporting through the implementation of notification practices tailored to a country's specific circumstances, including geography, cultural factors, structure of the existing CRVS system, and available human, information and communication technology resources. Strategic deployment of some, or all, of these innovations can result in rapid improvements to death notification systems and should be trialled in other settings.

Automated verbal autopsy: from research to routine use in civil registration and vital statistics systems

BACKGROUND

The majority of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) do not have adequate civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems to properly support health policy formulation. Verbal autopsy (VA), long used in research, can provide useful information on the cause of death (COD) in populations where physicians are not available to complete medical certificates of COD. Here, we report on the application of the SmartVA tool for the collection and analysis of data in several countries as part of routine CRVS activities.

METHODS

Data from VA interviews conducted in 4 of 12 countries supported by the Bloomberg Philanthropies Data for Health (D4H) Initiative, and at different stages of health statistical development, were analysed and assessed for plausibility: Myanmar, Papua New Guinea (PNG), Bangladesh and the Philippines. Analyses by age- and cause-specific mortality fractions were compared to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study data by country. VA interviews were analysed using SmartVA-Analyze-automated software that was designed for use in CRVS systems. The method in the Philippines differed from the other sites in that the VA output was used as a decision support tool for health officers.

RESULTS

Country strategies for VA implementation are described in detail. Comparisons between VA data and country GBD estimates by age and cause revealed generally similar patterns and distributions. The main discrepancy was higher infectious disease mortality and lower non-communicable disease mortality at the PNG VA sites, compared to the GBD country models, which critical appraisal suggests may highlight real differences rather than implausible VA results.

CONCLUSION

Automated VA is the only feasible method for generating COD data for many populations. The results of implementation in four countries, reported here under the D4H Initiative, confirm that these methods are acceptable for wide-scale implementation and can produce reliable COD information on community deaths for which little was previously known.

BAYESIAN FACTOR MODELS FOR PROBABILISTIC CAUSE OF DEATH ASSESSMENT WITH VERBAL AUTOPSIES

The distribution of deaths by cause provides crucial information for public health planning, response and evaluation. About 60% of deaths globally are not registered or given a cause, limiting our ability to understand disease epidemiology. Verbal autopsy (VA) surveys are increasingly used in such settings to collect information on the signs, symptoms and medical history of people who have recently died. This article develops a novel Bayesian method for estimation of population distributions of deaths by cause using verbal autopsy data. The proposed approach is based on a multivariate probit model where associations among items in questionnaires are flexibly induced by latent factors. Using the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium labeled data that include both VA and medically certified causes of death, we assess performance of the proposed method. Further, we estimate important questionnaire items that are highly associated with causes of death. This framework provides insights that will simplify future data.

Evaluating the quality of evidence for diagnosing ischemic heart disease from verbal autopsy in Indonesia

BACKGROUND

Mortality and cause of death data are fundamental to health policy development. Civil Registration and Vital Statistics systems are the ideal data source, but the system is still under development in Indonesia. A national Sample Registration System (SRS) has provided nationally representative mortality data from 128 sub-districts since 2014. Verbal autopsy (VA) is used in the SRS to obtain causes of death. The quality of VA data must be evaluated as part of the SRS data quality assessment.

AIM

To assess the strength of evidence used in the assignment of Ischaemic Heart Disease (IHD) as causes of death from VA.

METHODS

The sample frame for this study is the 4,070 deaths that had IHD assigned as the underlying cause in the SRS 2016 database. From these, 400 cases were randomly selected. A data extraction form and data entry template were designed to collect relevant data about IHD from VA questionnaires. A standardised categorisation was designed to assess the strength of evidence used to infer IHD as a cause of death. A pilot test of 50 cases was carried out. IBM SPSS software was used in this study.

RESULTS

Strong evidence of IHD as a cause of death was assigned based on surgery for coronary heart disease, chest pain and two out of: sudden death, history of heart disease, medical diagnosis of heart disease, or terminal shortness of breath. More than half (53%) of the questionnaires contained strong evidence. For deaths outside health facilities, VA questionnaires for male deaths contained acceptable evidence in significantly higher proportions as compared to those for female deaths. (P < 0.001). Nearly half of all IHD deaths were concentrated in the 50-69 year age group (48.40%), and a further 36.10% were aged 70 years or more. Nearly two-thirds of the deceased were male (58.40%). Smoking behaviour was found in 44.11% of IHD deaths, but this figure was 73.82% among males.

CONCLUSION

More than half of the VA questionnaires from the study sample were found to contain strong evidence to infer IHD as the cause of death. Results from medical records such as electrocardiograms, coronary angiographies, and load tests could have improved the strength of evidence and contributed to IHD cause of death diagnosis.

Validation of verbal autopsy methods for assessment of child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa and the policy implication: a rapid review

Reliable data on the cause of child death is the cornerstone for evidence-informed health policy making towards improving child health outcomes. Unfortunately, accurate data on cause of death is essentially lacking in most countries of sub-Saharan Africa due to the widespread absence of functional Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) systems. To address this problem, verbal autopsy (VA) has gained prominence as a strategy for obtaining Cause of Death (COD) information in populations where CRVS are absent. This study reviewed publications that investigated the validation of VA methods for assessment of COD. A MEDLINE PubMed search was undertaken in June 2018 for studies published in English that investigated the validation of VA methods in sub-Saharan Africa from 1990-2018. Of the 17 studies identified, 9 fulfilled the study inclusion criteria from which additional five relevant studies were found by reviewing their references. The result showed that Physician-Certified Verbal Autopsy (PCVA) was the most widely used VA method. Validation studies comparing PCVA to hospital records, expert algorithm and InterVA demonstrated mixed and highly varied outcomes. The accuracy and reliability of the VA methods depended on level of healthcare the respondents have access to and the knowledge of the physicians on the local disease aetiology and epidemiology. As the countries in sub-Saharan Africa continue to battle with dysfunctional CRVS system, VA will remain the only viable option for the supply of child mortality data necessary for policy making.

Engaging communities in collecting and using results from verbal autopsies for child deaths: an example from urban slums in Freetown, Sierra Leone

BACKGROUND

Verbal autopsies (VAs) can provide important epidemiological information about the causes of child deaths. Though studies have been conducted to assess the validity of various types of VAs, the programmatic experience of engaging local communities in collecting and using VA has received little attention in the published literature. Concern Worldwide, an international non-governmental organization (NGO), in collaboration with the Ministry of Health and Sanitation (MOHS), has implemented a VA protocol in five urban slums of Freetown, Sierra Leone. This paper provides VA results and describes lessons learned from the VA process.

METHODS

Under-five child deaths were registered by Community Health Workers (CHWs) in five urban slums between 2014 and 2017, and a specially trained local clinician used a VA protocol to interview caretakers. Symptoms were analysed using InterVA-4 computerized algorithm, a probabilistic expert-driven model to determine the most likely cause of death. Themes in care-seeking were extracted from multiple-choice and open-ended questions. VAs were implemented in collaboration with the community and the results were shared with community stakeholders in participatory review meetings.

RESULTS

Main challenges included limitations in death notification and capacity to conduct VA for all notified deaths. A total of 215 VA were available for analysis. Among 79 neonatal deaths aged 0-27 days, the most common cause of death was neonatal pneumonia (55%); among 136 children deaths aged 1-4 years, the most common causes were malaria (56%) and pneumonia (41%). Key themes in care-seeking identified included use of traditional medicine (14% of deaths), absence of care-seeking (23% of deaths), and difficultly reaching the health facility (8% of deaths that occurred at home) during fatal illness.

CONCLUSIONS

Conducting VAs as a collaborative process with communities is challenging but can provide valuable data that can be used for local-level decision-making. The findings have practical implications for engaging the community and CHWs in reducing the number of these preventable deaths through expanded efforts at prevention, early and appropriate treatment, and reduction of barriers to care-seeking. A functional end-to-end VA system can enhance meaningful routine vital events monitoring by community, national, and international stakeholders.

An integrated approach to processing WHO-2016 verbal autopsy data: the InterVA-5 model

BACKGROUND

Verbal autopsy is an increasingly important methodology for assigning causes to otherwise uncertified deaths, which amount to around 50% of global mortality and cause much uncertainty for health planning. The World Health Organization sets international standards for the structure of verbal autopsy interviews and for cause categories that can reasonably be derived from verbal autopsy data. In addition, computer models are needed to efficiently process large quantities of verbal autopsy interviews to assign causes of death in a standardised manner. Here, we present the InterVA-5 model, developed to align with the WHO-2016 verbal autopsy standard. This is a harmonising model that can process input data from WHO-2016, as well as earlier WHO-2012 and Tariff-2 formats, to generate standardised cause-specific mortality profiles for diverse contexts. The software development involved building on the earlier InterVA-4 model, and the expanded knowledge base required for InterVA-5 was informed by analyses from a training dataset drawn from the Population Health Metrics Research Collaboration verbal autopsy reference dataset, as well as expert input.

RESULTS

The new model was evaluated against a test dataset of 6130 cases from the Population Health Metrics Research Collaboration and 4009 cases from the Afghanistan National Mortality Survey dataset. Both of these sources contained around three quarters of the input items from the WHO-2016, WHO-2012 and Tariff-2 formats. Cause-specific mortality fractions across all applicable WHO cause categories were compared between causes assigned in participating tertiary hospitals and InterVA-5 in the test dataset, with concordance correlation coefficients of 0.92 for children and 0.86 for adults. The InterVA-5 model's capacity to handle different input formats was evaluated in the Afghanistan dataset, with concordance correlation coefficients of 0.97 and 0.96 between the WHO-2016 and the WHO-2012 format for children and adults respectively, and 0.92 and 0.87 between the WHO-2016 and the Tariff-2 format respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the inherent difficulties of determining "truth" in assigning cause of death, these findings suggest that the InterVA-5 model performs well and succeeds in harmonising across a range of input formats. As more primary data collected under WHO-2016 become available, it is likely that InterVA-5 will undergo minor re-versioning in the light of practical experience. The model is an important resource for measuring and evaluating cause-specific mortality globally.

National health information systems for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals

OBJECTIVES

Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals will require data-driven public health action. There are limited publications on national health information systems that continuously generate health data. Given the need to develop these systems, we summarised their current status in low-income and middle-income countries.

SETTING

The survey team jointly developed a questionnaire covering policy, planning, legislation and organisation of case reporting, patient monitoring and civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems. From January until May 2017, we administered the questionnaire to key informants in 51 Centers for Disease Control country offices. Countries were aggregated for descriptive analyses in Microsoft Excel.

RESULTS

Key informants in 15 countries responded to the questionnaire. Several key informants did not answer all questions, leading to different denominators across questions. The Ministry of Health coordinated case reporting, patient monitoring and CRVS systems in 93% (14/15), 93% (13/14) and 53% (8/15) of responding countries, respectively. Domestic financing supported case reporting, patient monitoring and CRVS systems in 86% (12/14), 75% (9/12) and 92% (11/12) of responding countries, respectively. The most common uses for system-generated data were to guide programme response in 100% (15/15) of countries for case reporting, to calculate service coverage in 92% (12/13) of countries for patient monitoring and to estimate the national burden of disease in 83% (10/12) of countries for CRVS. Systems with an electronic component were being used for case reporting, patient monitoring, birth registration and death registration in 87% (13/15), 92% (11/12), 77% (10/13) and 64% (7/11) of responding countries, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Most responding countries have a solid foundation for policy, planning, legislation and organisation of health information systems. Further evaluation is needed to assess the quality of data generated from systems. Periodic evaluations may be useful in monitoring progress in strengthening and harmonising these systems over time.

Differences in barriers to birth and death registration in Guinea-Bissau: implications for monitoring national and global health objectives

OBJECTIVE

Improving civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems is essential to monitoring health objectives locally and globally. The barriers to birth and particularly death registration in low- and middle-income countries are however poorly understood.

METHODS

We conducted a survey among women of reproductive age in Bissau, the capital of Guinea-Bissau. We asked women with a birth in the past two years whether their child had been registered and had obtained a birth certificate. We elicited the sources of information about birth registration and asked respondents to list their reasons for (not) registering a birth. If their child had died, we asked similar questions about death registration.

RESULTS

Most women (86%) had received messages about birth registration, but few women whose child had died had heard about the need to register deaths (22%). The primary sources of information about birth registration were messages broadcast on the radio or displayed at health facilities. Information about death registration was primarily obtained through informal social networks. Only 16% of births, and 2% of deaths, had been registered. The main barriers to birth registration were administrative pre-requisites and paternal absence. The main reasons for not registering a death were lack of knowledge about death registration and lack of perceived benefits.

CONCLUSION

Strengthening CRVS systems requires addressing the specific barriers preventing birth and death registration. In Bissau, interventions to improve knowledge about death registration are needed. Simplifying registration procedures, as well as providing additional incentives, might help improve the coverage of birth registration.

Global statistics on alcohol, tobacco and illicit drug use: 2017 status report

AIMS

This review provides an up-to-date curated source of information on alcohol, tobacco and illicit drug use and their associated mortality and burden of disease. Limitations in the data are also discussed, including how these can be addressed in the future.

METHODS

Online data sources were identified through expert review. Data were obtained mainly from the World Health Organization, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

RESULTS

In 2015, the estimated prevalence among the adult population was 18.4% for heavy episodic alcohol use (in the past 30 days); 15.2% for daily tobacco smoking; and 3.8, 0.77, 0.37 and 0.35% for past-year cannabis, amphetamine, opioid and cocaine use, respectively. European regions had the highest prevalence of heavy episodic alcohol use and daily tobacco use. The age-standardized prevalence of alcohol dependence was 843.2 per 100 000 people; for cannabis, opioids, amphetamines and cocaine dependence it was 259.3, 220.4, 86.0 and 52.5 per 100 000 people, respectively. High-income North America region had among the highest rates of cannabis, opioid and cocaine dependence. Attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were highest for tobacco smoking (170.9 million DALYs), followed by alcohol (85.0 million) and illicit drugs (27.8 million). Substance-attributable mortality rates were highest for tobacco smoking (110.7 deaths per 100 000 people), followed by alcohol and illicit drugs (33.0 and 6.9 deaths per 100 000 people, respectively). Attributable age-standardized mortality rates and DALYs for alcohol and illicit drugs were highest in eastern Europe; attributable age-standardized tobacco mortality rates and DALYs were highest in Oceania.

CONCLUSIONS

In 2015 alcohol use and tobacco smoking use between them cost the human population more than a quarter of a billion disability-adjusted life years, with illicit drugs costing further tens of millions. Europeans suffered proportionately more, but in absolute terms the mortality rate was greatest in low- and middle-income countries with large populations and where the quality of data was more limited. Better standardized and rigorous methods for data collection, collation and reporting are needed to assess more accurately the geographical and temporal trends in substance use and its disease burden.

Performance of verbal autopsy methods in estimating HIV-associated mortality among adults in South Africa

INTRODUCTION

Verbal autopsy (VA) can be integrated into civil registration and vital statistics systems, but its accuracy in determining HIV-associated causes of death (CoD) is uncertain. We assessed the sensitivity and specificity of VA questions in determining HIV status and antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation and compared HIV-associated mortality fractions assigned by different VA interpretation methods.

METHODS

Using the WHO 2012 instrument with added ART questions, VA was conducted for deaths among adults with known HIV status (356 HIV positive and 103 HIV negative) in South Africa. CoD were assigned using physician-certified VA (PCVA) and computer-coded VA (CCVA) methods and compared with documented HIV status.

RESULTS

The sensitivity of VA questions in detecting HIV status and ART initiation was 84.3% (95% CI 80 to 88) and 91.0% (95% CI 86 to 95); 283/356 (79.5%) HIV-positive individuals were assigned HIV-associated CoD by PCVA, 166 (46.6%) by InterVA-4.03, 201 (56.5%) by InterVA-5, and 80 (22.5%) and 289 (81.2%) by SmartVA-Analyze V.1.1.1 and V.1.2.1. Agreement between PCVA and older CCVA methods was poor (chance-corrected concordance [CCC] <0; cause-specific mortality fraction [CSMF] accuracy ≤56%) but better between PCVA and updated methods (CCC 0.21-0.75; CSMF accuracy 65%-98%). All methods were specific (specificity 87% to 96%) in assigning HIV-associated CoD.

CONCLUSION

All CCVA interpretation methods underestimated the HIV-associated mortality fraction compared with PCVA; InterVA-5 and SmartVA-Analyze V.1.2.1 performed better than earlier versions. Changes to VA methods and classification systems are needed to track progress towards targets for reducing HIV-associated mortality.

Validation of verbal autopsy methods using hospital medical records: a case study in Vietnam

BACKGROUND

Information on causes of death (COD) is crucial for measuring the health outcomes of populations and progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals. In many countries such as Vietnam where the civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) system is dysfunctional, information on vital events will continue to rely on verbal autopsy (VA) methods. This study assesses the validity of VA methods used in Vietnam, and provides recommendations on methods for implementing VA validation studies in Vietnam.

METHODS

This validation study was conducted on a sample of 670 deaths from a recent VA study in Quang Ninh province. The study covered 116 cases from this sample, which met three inclusion criteria: a) the death occurred within 30 days of discharge after last hospitalisation, and b) medical records (MRs) for the deceased were available from respective hospitals, and c) the medical record mentioned that the patient was terminally ill at discharge. For each death, the underlying cause of death (UCOD) identified from MRs was compared to the UCOD from VA. The validity of VA diagnoses for major causes of death was measured using sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value (PPV).

RESULTS

The sensitivity of VA was at least 75% in identifying some leading CODs such as stroke, road traffic accidents and several site-specific cancers. However, sensitivity was less than 50% for other important causes including ischemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, and diabetes. Overall, there was 57% agreement between UCOD from VA and MR, which increased to 76% when multiple causes from VA were compared to UCOD from MR.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that VA is a valid method to ascertain UCOD in contexts such as Vietnam. Furthermore, within cultural contexts in which patients prefer to die at home instead of a healthcare facility, using the available MRs as the gold standard may be meaningful to the extent that recall bias from the interval between last hospital discharge and death can be minimized. Therefore, future studies should evaluate validity of MRs as a gold standard for VA studies in contexts similar to the Vietnamese context.

Verbal autopsy in health policy and systems: a literature review

Introduction

Estimates suggest that one in two deaths go unrecorded globally every year in terms of medical causes, with the majority occurring in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). This can be related to low investment in civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems. Verbal autopsy (VA) is a method that enables identification of cause of death where no other routine systems are in place and where many people die at home. Considering the utility of VA as a pragmatic, interim solution to the lack of functional CRVS, this review aimed to examine the use of VA to inform health policy and systems improvements.

Methods

A literature review was conducted including papers published between 2010 and 2017 according to a systematic search strategy. Inclusion of papers and data extraction were assessed by three reviewers. Thereafter, thematic analysis and narrative synthesis were conducted in which evidence was critically examined and key themes were identified.

Results

Twenty-six papers applying VA to inform health policy and systems developments were selected, including studies in 15 LMICs in Africa, Asia, the Middle East and South America. The majority of studies applied VA in surveillance sites or programmes actively engaging with decision makers and governments in different ways and to different degrees. In the papers reviewed, the value of continuous collection of cause of death data, supplemented by social and community-based investigations and underpinned by electronic data innovations, to establish a robust and reliable evidence base for health policies and programmes was clearly recognised.

Conclusion

VA has considerable potential to inform policy, planning and measurement of progress towards goals and targets. Working collaboratively at sub-national, national and international levels facilitates data collection, aggregation and dissemination linked to routine information systems. When used in partnerships between researchers and authorities, VA can help to close critical information gaps and guide policy development, implementation, evaluation and investment in health systems.

Use of verbal autopsy and social autopsy in humanitarian crises

INTRODUCTION

Two billion people live in countries affected by conflict, violence and fragility. These are exceptional situations in which mortality shifts dramatically and in which civil registration and vital statistics systems are often weakened or cease to function. Verbal autopsy and social autopsy (VA and SA) are methods used to assign causes of death and understand the contexts in which these occur, in settings where information is otherwise unavailable. This review sought to explore the use of VA and SA in humanitarian crises, with a focus on how these approaches are used to inform policy and programme responses.

METHODS

A rapid scoping review was conducted on the use of VA and SA in humanitarian crises in low and middle-income countries since 1991. Drawing on a maximum variation approach, two settings of application ('application contexts') were selected and investigated via nine semi-structured expert interviews.

RESULTS

VA can determine causes of death in crisis-affected populations where no other registration system is in place. Combined with SA and active community involvement, these methods can deliver a holistic view of obstacles to seeking and receiving essential healthcare, yielding context-specific information to inform appropriate responses. The contexts in which VA and SA are used require adaptations to standard tools, and new mobile developments in VA raise specific ethical considerations. Furthermore, collecting and sythesising data in a timely, continuous manner, and ensuring coordination and communication between agencies, is important to realise the potential of these approaches.

CONCLUSION

VA and SA are valuable research methods to foster evidence-informed responses for populations affected by humanitarian crises. When coordinated and communicated effectively, data generated through these methods can help to identify levels, causes and circumstances of deaths among vulnerable groups, and can enable planning and allocating resources effectively, potentially improving health system resilience to future crises.

Performance of InSilicoVA for assigning causes of death to verbal autopsies: multisite validation study using clinical diagnostic gold standards

BACKGROUND

Recently, a new algorithm for automatic computer certification of verbal autopsy data named InSilicoVA was published. The authors presented their algorithm as a statistical method and assessed its performance using a single set of model predictors and one age group.

METHODS

We perform a standard procedure for analyzing the predictive accuracy of verbal autopsy classification methods using the same data and the publicly available implementation of the algorithm released by the authors. We extend the original analysis to include children and neonates, instead of only adults, and test accuracy using different sets of predictors, including the set used in the original paper and a set that matches the released software.

RESULTS

The population-level performance (i.e., predictive accuracy) of the algorithm varied from 2.1 to 37.6% when trained on data preprocessed similarly as in the original study. When trained on data that matched the software default format, the performance ranged from -11.5 to 17.5%. When using the default training data provided, the performance ranged from -59.4 to -38.5%. Overall, the InSilicoVA predictive accuracy was found to be 11.6-8.2 percentage points lower than that of an alternative algorithm. Additionally, the sensitivity for InSilicoVA was consistently lower than that for an alternative diagnostic algorithm (Tariff 2.0), although the specificity was comparable.

CONCLUSIONS

The default format and training data provided by the software lead to results that are at best suboptimal, with poor cause-of-death predictive performance. This method is likely to generate erroneous cause of death predictions and, even if properly configured, is not as accurate as alternative automated diagnostic methods.

New challenges for verbal autopsy: Considering the ethical and social implications of verbal autopsy methods in routine health information systems

Verbal autopsy (VA) methods are designed to collect cause-of-death information from populations where many deaths occur outside of health facilities and where death certification is weak or absent. A VA consists of an interview with a relative or carer of a recently deceased individual in order to gather information on the signs and symptoms the decedent presented with prior to death. These details are then used to determine and assign a likely cause-of-death. At a population level this information can be invaluable to help guide prioritisation and direct health policy and services. To date VAs have largely been restricted to research contexts but many countries are now venturing to incorporate VA methods into routine civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems. Given the sensitive nature of death, however, there are a number of ethical, legal and social issues that should be considered when scaling-up VAs, particularly in the cross-cultural and socio-economically disadvantaged environments in which they are typically applied. Considering each step of the VA process this paper provides a narrative review of the social context of VA methods. Harnessing the experiences of applying and rolling out VAs as part of routine CRVS systems in a number of low and middle income countries, we identify potential issues that countries and implementing institutions need to consider when incorporating VAs into CRVS systems and point to areas that could benefit from further research and deliberation.