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Li X, Zhang L, Tan C, Wu Y, Zhang Z, Ding J, Li Y. The impact of temperature, humidity and closing school on the mumps epidemic: a case study in the mainland of China. BMC Public Health 2024; 24:1632. [PMID: 38898424 PMCID: PMC11186224 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-024-18819-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/28/2023] [Accepted: 05/09/2024] [Indexed: 06/21/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND To control resurging infectious diseases like mumps, it is necessary to resort to effective control and preventive measures. These measures include increasing vaccine coverage, providing the community with advice on how to reduce exposure, and closing schools. To justify such intervention, it is important to understand how well each of these measures helps to limit transmission. METHODS In this paper, we propose a simple SEILR (susceptible-exposed-symptomatically infectious-asymptomatically infectious-recovered) model by using a novel transmission rate function to incorporate temperature, humidity, and closing school factors. This new transmission rate function allows us to verify the impact of each factor either separately or combined. Using reported mumps cases from 2004 to 2018 in the mainland of China, we perform data fitting and parameter estimation to evaluate the basic reproduction number R 0 . As a wide range of one-dose measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine programs in China started only in 2008, we use different vaccination proportions for the first Stage I period (from 2004 to 2008) and the second Stage II period (from 2009 to 2018). This allows us to verify the importance of higher vaccine coverage with a possible second dose of MMR vaccine. RESULTS We find that the basic reproduction number R 0 is generally between 1 and 3. We then use the Akaike Information Criteria to assess the extent to which each of the three factors contributed to the spread of mumps. The findings suggest that the impact of all three factors is substantial, with temperature having the most significant impact, followed by school opening and closing, and finally humidity. CONCLUSION We conclude that the strategy of increasing vaccine coverage, changing micro-climate (temperature and humidity), and closing schools can greatly reduce mumps transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaoqun Li
- School of Information and Mathematics, Yangtze University, Nanhuan Road, Jingzhou, 434023, China
| | - Lianyun Zhang
- School of Information and Mathematics, Yangtze University, Nanhuan Road, Jingzhou, 434023, China
| | - Changlei Tan
- Information Engineering College, Hunan Applied Technology University, Shanjuan Road, Changde, 415100, China
| | - Yan Wu
- Department of Operations Research and Information Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Pingle Garden, Beijing, 100124, China
| | - Ziheng Zhang
- School of Environment, Education & Development (SEED), The University of Manchester, Oxford Road, M139PL, Manchester, UK
| | - Juan Ding
- Jingzhou Hospital Affiliated to Yangtze University, Chuyuan Avenue, Jingzhou, 434023, China.
| | - Yong Li
- School of Information and Mathematics, Yangtze University, Nanhuan Road, Jingzhou, 434023, China.
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Zhang H, Su K, Zhong X. Association between Meteorological Factors and Mumps and Models for Prediction in Chongqing, China. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:ijerph19116625. [PMID: 35682208 PMCID: PMC9180516 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19116625] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/23/2022] [Revised: 05/20/2022] [Accepted: 05/27/2022] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
(1) Background: To explore whether meteorological factors have an impact on the prevalence of mumps, and to make a short−term prediction of the case number of mumps in Chongqing. (2) Methods: K−means clustering algorithm was used to divide the monthly mumps cases of each year into the high and low case number clusters, and Student t−test was applied for difference analysis. The cross−correlation function (CCF) was used to evaluate the correlation between the meteorological factors and mumps, and an ARIMAX model was constructed by additionally incorporating meteorological factors as exogenous variables in the ARIMA model, and a short−term prediction was conducted for mumps in Chongqing, evaluated by MAE, RMSE. (3) Results: All the meteorological factors were significantly different (p < 0.05), except for the relative humidity between the high and low case number clusters. The CCF and ARIMAX model showed that monthly precipitation, temperature, relative humidity and wind velocity were associated with mumps, and there were significant lag effects. The ARIMAX model could accurately predict mumps in the short term, and the prediction errors (MAE, RMSE) were lower than those of the ARIMA model. (4) Conclusions: Meteorological factors can affect the occurrence of mumps, and the ARIMAX model can effectively predict the incidence trend of mumps in Chongqing, which can provide an early warning for relevant departments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hong Zhang
- School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400016, China; (H.Z.); (K.S.)
| | - Kun Su
- School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400016, China; (H.Z.); (K.S.)
- Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing 400042, China
- Chongqing Public Health Medical Center, Chongqing 400036, China
| | - Xiaoni Zhong
- School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400016, China; (H.Z.); (K.S.)
- Correspondence:
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Wang T, Wang J, Rao J, Han Y, Luo Z, Jia L, Chen L, Wang C, Zhang Y, Zhang J. Meta-analysis of the effects of ambient temperature and relative humidity on the risk of mumps. Sci Rep 2022; 12:6440. [PMID: 35440700 PMCID: PMC9017417 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-10138-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/06/2021] [Accepted: 04/01/2022] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Many studies have shown that the relationship between ambient temperature, relative humidity and mumps has been highlighted. However, these studies showed inconsistent results. Therefore, the goal of our study is to conduct a meta-analysis to clarify this relationship and to quantify the size of these effects as well as the potential factors. Systematic literature researches on PubMed, Embase.com, Web of Science Core Collection, Cochrane library, Chinese BioMedical Literature Database (CBM) and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) were performed up to February 7, 2022 for articles analyzing the relationships between ambient temperature, relative humidity and incidence of mumps. Eligibility assessment and data extraction were conducted independently by two researchers, and meta-analysis was performed to synthesize these data. We also assessed sources of heterogeneity by study region, regional climate, study population. Finally, a total of 14 studies were screened out from 1154 records and identified to estimate the relationship between ambient temperature, relative humidity and incidence of mumps. It was found that per 1 °C increase and decrease in the ambient temperature were significantly associated with increased incidence of mumps with RR of 1.0191 (95% CI: 1.0129–1.0252, I2 = 92.0%, Egger’s test P = 0.001, N = 13) for per 1 °C increase and 1.0244 (95% CI: 1.0130–1.0359, I2 = 86.6%, Egger’s test P = 0.077, N = 9) for per 1 °C decrease. As to relative humidity, only high effect of relative humidity was slightly significant (for per 1 unit increase with RR of 1.0088 (95% CI: 1.0027–1.0150), I2 = 72.6%, Egger’s test P = 0.159, N = 9). Subgroup analysis showed that regional climate with temperate areas may have a higher risk of incidence of mumps than areas with subtropical climate in cold effect of ambient temperature and low effect of relative humidity. In addition, meta-regression analysis showed that regional climate may affect the association between incidence of mumps and cold effect of ambient temperature. Our results suggest ambient temperature could affect the incidence of mumps significantly, of which both hot and cold effect of ambient temperature may increase the incidence of mumps. Further studies are still needed to clarify the relationship between the incidence of mumps and ambient temperature outside of east Asia, and many other meteorological factors. These results of ambient temperature are important for establishing preventive measures on mumps, especially in temperate areas. The policy-makers should pay more attention to ambient temperature changes and take protective measures in advance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Taiwu Wang
- Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Eastern Theater Command, Nanjing, 210002, China
| | - Junjun Wang
- Nanjing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, 210002, China.,Chinese Field Epidemiology Training Program, Beijing, 100050, China
| | - Jixian Rao
- Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Eastern Theater Command, Nanjing, 210002, China
| | - Yifang Han
- Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Eastern Theater Command, Nanjing, 210002, China
| | - Zhenghan Luo
- Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Eastern Theater Command, Nanjing, 210002, China
| | - Lingru Jia
- Wuxi Center of Joint Logistic Support Force, Wuxi, 214000, China
| | - Leru Chen
- Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Eastern Theater Command, Nanjing, 210002, China
| | - Chunhui Wang
- Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Eastern Theater Command, Nanjing, 210002, China
| | - Yao Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology, College of Preventive Medicine, Army Medical University, Chongqing, 400038, China.
| | - Jinhai Zhang
- Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Eastern Theater Command, Nanjing, 210002, China.
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Xie W, Zhao H, Shu C, Wang B, Zeng W, Zhan Y. Association between ozone exposure and prevalence of mumps: a time-series study in a Megacity of Southwest China. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2021; 28:64848-64857. [PMID: 34318412 PMCID: PMC8315250 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-15473-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2021] [Accepted: 07/13/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
In the present study, we aim to evaluate the delayed and cumulative effect of ozone (O3) exposure on mumps in a megacity with high population density and high humidity. We took Chongqing, a megacity in Southwest China, as the research area and 2013-2017 as the research period. A total of 49,258 confirmed mumps cases were collected from 122 hospitals of Chongqing. We employed the distributed lag nonlinear models with quasi-Poisson link to investigate the relationship between prevalence of mumps and O3 exposure after adjusting for the effects of meteorological conditions. The results show that the effect of O3 exposure on mumps was mainly manifested in the lag of 0-7 days. The single-day ;lag effect was the most obvious on the 4th day, with the relative risk (RR) of mumps occurs of 1.006 (95% CI: 1.003-1.007) per 10 μg/m3 in the O3 exposure. The cumulative RR within 7 days was 1.025 (95% CI: 1.013-1.038). Our results suggest that O3 exposure can increase the risk of mumps infection, which fills the gap of relevant research in mountainous areas with high population density and high humidity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenjun Xie
- Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
| | - Han Zhao
- Chongqing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, China
| | - Chang Shu
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders; National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders, Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Bin Wang
- Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
- Yibin Institute of Industrial Technology, Sichuan University Yibin Park, Yibin, China
| | - Wen Zeng
- Sichuan University-the Hong Kong Polytechnic University Institute for Disaster Management and Reconstruction, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
| | - Yu Zhan
- Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
- Yibin Institute of Industrial Technology, Sichuan University Yibin Park, Yibin, China.
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Zhu Y, Zhang D, Hu Y, Li C, Jia Y, She K, Liu T, Xu Q, Zhang Y, Li X. Exploring the Relationship between Mumps and Meteorological Factors in Shandong Province, China Based on a Two-Stage Model. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:ijerph181910359. [PMID: 34639658 PMCID: PMC8508524 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph181910359] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/08/2021] [Revised: 09/27/2021] [Accepted: 09/28/2021] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
Abstract
Background: Small-scale studies have identified temperature and other meteorological factors as risk factors for human health. However, only a few have quantified the specific impact of meteorological factors on mumps. A quantitative examination of the exposure–response relationship between meteorological factors and mumps is needed to provide new insights for multi-city analysis. Methods: The daily recorded number of mumps cases and meteorological data in 17 cities of Shandong Province from 2009 to 2017 were collected. A two-stage model was built to explore the relationship between meteorological factors and mumps. Results: A total of 104,685 cases of mumps were recorded from 2009 to 2017. After controlling for seasonality and long-term trends, the effect of low temperature on mumps was significant at the provincial level, with a cumulative RR of 1.035 (95%CI: 1.002–1.069) with a 1-day lagged effect. The proportion of primary and middle school students was determined as an effect modifier, which had a significant impact on mumps (Stat = 8.374, p = 0.039). There was heterogeneity in the combined effect of temperature on mumps (Q = 95.447, p = 0.000), and its size was I2 = 49.7%. Conclusions: We have identified a non-linear relationship between mumps and temperature in Shandong Province. In particular, low temperatures could bring more cases of mumps, with certain lagged effects. More public health measures should be taken to reduce the risks when temperatures are low, especially for cities with a high proportion of primary and secondary school students.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuchen Zhu
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China; (Y.Z.); (D.Z.); (C.L.); (Y.J.); (K.S.); (T.L.)
| | - Dandan Zhang
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China; (Y.Z.); (D.Z.); (C.L.); (Y.J.); (K.S.); (T.L.)
- Heze Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Heze 274003, China
| | - Yuchen Hu
- MRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL, Institute of Clinical Trials and Methodology, 90 High Holborn, London WC1V 6LJ, UK;
| | - Chunyu Li
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China; (Y.Z.); (D.Z.); (C.L.); (Y.J.); (K.S.); (T.L.)
| | - Yan Jia
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China; (Y.Z.); (D.Z.); (C.L.); (Y.J.); (K.S.); (T.L.)
| | - Kaili She
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China; (Y.Z.); (D.Z.); (C.L.); (Y.J.); (K.S.); (T.L.)
| | - Tingxuan Liu
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China; (Y.Z.); (D.Z.); (C.L.); (Y.J.); (K.S.); (T.L.)
| | - Qing Xu
- Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250012, China;
| | - Ying Zhang
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW 2006, Australia;
| | - Xiujun Li
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China; (Y.Z.); (D.Z.); (C.L.); (Y.J.); (K.S.); (T.L.)
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +86-531-8838-2140
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Lin CY, Su SB, Peng CJ, Chen KT. The incidence of mumps in Taiwan and its association with the meteorological parameters: An observational study. Medicine (Baltimore) 2021; 100:e27267. [PMID: 34664880 PMCID: PMC8447993 DOI: 10.1097/md.0000000000027267] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2021] [Accepted: 08/31/2021] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Mumps is an acute and common childhood disease caused by paramyxovirus. It has been reported that the occurrence of mumps is influenced by seasonality. However, the role of meteorological variables in the incidence of mumps remains unclear. The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps infection. Poisson regression analysis was used to study the relationship between weather variability and the incidence of mumps in Taiwan. Between 2012 and 2018, 5459 cases of mumps cases were reported to the Centers for Disease Control, Taiwan (Taiwan CDC). The occurrence of mumps virus infections revealed significant seasonality in the spring and summer seasons in Taiwan. The incidence of mumps virus infections began to increase at temperatures of 15°C and started to decline if the temperature was higher than 29°C (r2 = 0.387, P = .008). Similarly, the number of mumps cases began to increase at a relative humidity of 65% to 69% (r2 = 0.838, P < .029). The number of mumps cases was positively associated with temperature and relative humidity during the period preceding the infection. This study showed that the occurrence of mumps is significantly associated with increasing temperature and relative humidity in Taiwan. Therefore, these factors could be regarded as early warning signals and indicate the need to strengthen the intervention and prevention of mumps.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cheng-Yao Lin
- Division of Hematology-Oncology, Department of Internal Medicine, Chi-Mei Medical Center, Liouying, Tainan, Taiwan
- Department of Senior Welfare and Services, Southern Taiwan University of Science and Technology, Tainan, Taiwan
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Shih-Bin Su
- Department of Occupational Medicine, Chi-Mei Medical Center, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Cheau-Jane Peng
- Department of Senior Welfare and Services, Southern Taiwan University of Science and Technology, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Kow-Tong Chen
- Department of Occupational Medicine, Tainan Municipal Hospital, Tainan, Taiwan
- Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan
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Associations between Meteorological Factors and Reported Mumps Cases from 1999 to 2020 in Japan. EPIDEMIOLGIA (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2021; 2:162-178. [PMID: 36417181 PMCID: PMC9620933 DOI: 10.3390/epidemiologia2020013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2021] [Revised: 03/12/2021] [Accepted: 03/29/2021] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
The present study investigated associations between epidemiological mumps patterns and meteorological factors in Japan. We used mumps surveillance data and meteorological data from all 47 prefectures of Japan from 1999 to 2020. A time-series analysis incorporating spectral analysis and the least-squares method was adopted. In all power spectral densities for the 47 prefectures, spectral lines were observed at frequency positions corresponding to 1-year and 6-month cycles. Optimum least-squares fitting (LSF) curves calculated with the 1-year and 6-month cycles explained the underlying variation in the mumps data. The LSF curves reproduced bimodal and unimodal cycles that are clearly observed in northern and southern Japan, respectively. In investigating factors associated with the seasonality of mumps epidemics, we defined the contribution ratios of a 1-year cycle (Q1) and 6-month cycle (Q2) as the contributions of amplitudes of 1-year and 6-month cycles, respectively, to the entire amplitude of the time series data. Q1 and Q2 were significantly correlated with annual mean temperature. The vaccine coverage rate of a measles-mumps-rubella vaccine might not have affected the 1-year and 6-month modes of the time series data. The results of the study suggest an association between mean temperature and mumps epidemics in Japan.
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Lin S, Ruan S, Geng X, Song K, Cui L, Liu X, Zhang Y, Cao M, Zhang Y. Non-linear relationships and interactions of meteorological factors on mumps in Jinan, China. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2021; 65:555-563. [PMID: 33180186 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-020-02048-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2020] [Revised: 10/02/2020] [Accepted: 11/03/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Although vaccination is available, mumps remains a public health concern in many countries including China. Previous studies have indicated the impact of meteorological factors and mumps, but findings vary across different regions with limited evidence to inform local public health responses. We aim to examine the impacts of meteorological variables on mumps in Jinan, a temperate city of China, and explore the interactions of temperature with humidity or wind speed. Weekly meteorological data and notified cases of mumps in Jinan were collected for 2014-2018. Regression analyses using the generalized additive model were performed with considerations of multicollinearity, lag effects, school holidays, long-term trend, and seasonality. A stratification model was applied to investigate the interaction. We found a non-linear relationship between weekly mean temperature and the number of cases. Between 1.2 and 24.5 °C, the excess risk (ER) of mumps for a 1 °C increase in weekly mean temperature was 3.08% (95% CI 1.32 to 4.87%) at 0-week lag. The lagged effects could last for 3 weeks. There were interactions between mean temperature and relative humidity or wind speed. The effect of mean temperature was enhanced in days with low relative humidity or high wind speed. This study suggests that temperature is positively associated with mumps cases with thresholds in the temperate city of China, and the effect can be modified by relative humidity and wind speed and is independent of vaccine coverage. Findings could be integrated into current early warning systems of mumps in order to protect people's health from the risk of changing climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shaoqian Lin
- Jinan Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 2 Weiliu Road, Huaiyin District, Jinan, 250021, China
| | - Shiman Ruan
- Jinan Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 2 Weiliu Road, Huaiyin District, Jinan, 250021, China
| | - Xingyi Geng
- Jinan Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 2 Weiliu Road, Huaiyin District, Jinan, 250021, China
| | - Kaijun Song
- Jinan Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 2 Weiliu Road, Huaiyin District, Jinan, 250021, China
| | - Liangliang Cui
- Jinan Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 2 Weiliu Road, Huaiyin District, Jinan, 250021, China
| | - Xiaoxue Liu
- Jinan Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 2 Weiliu Road, Huaiyin District, Jinan, 250021, China
| | - Yingjian Zhang
- Jinan Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 2 Weiliu Road, Huaiyin District, Jinan, 250021, China
| | - Meng Cao
- Jinan Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 2 Weiliu Road, Huaiyin District, Jinan, 250021, China
| | - Ying Zhang
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW, 2006, Australia.
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Zha WT, Li WT, Zhou N, Zhu JJ, Feng R, Li T, Du YB, Liu Y, Hong XQ, Lv Y. Effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of mumps and models for prediction, China. BMC Infect Dis 2020; 20:468. [PMID: 32615923 PMCID: PMC7331163 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-020-05180-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/28/2019] [Accepted: 06/19/2020] [Indexed: 11/12/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Mumps is an acute respiratory infectious disease with obvious regional and seasonal differences. Exploring the impact of climate factors on the incidence of mumps and predicting its incidence trend on this basis could effectively control the outbreak and epidemic of mumps. METHODS Considering the great differences of climate in the vast territory of China, this study divided the Chinese mainland into seven regions according to the administrative planning criteria, data of Mumps were collected from the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System, ARIMA model and ARIMAX model with meteorological factors were established to predict the incidence of mumps. RESULTS In this study, we found that precipitation, air pressure, temperature, and wind speed had an impact on the incidence of mumps in most regions of China and the incidence of mumps in the north and southwest China was more susceptible to climate factors. Considering meteorological factors, the average relative error of ARIMAX model was 10.87%, which was lower than ARIMA model (15.57%). CONCLUSIONS Meteorology factors were the important factors which can affect the incidence of mumps, ARIMAX model with meteorological factors could better simulate and predict the incidence of mumps in China, which has certain reference value for the prevention and control of mumps.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wen-Ting Zha
- Key Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, School of Medicine, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, Hunan, People's Republic of China, 410081
| | - Wei-Tong Li
- Key Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, School of Medicine, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, Hunan, People's Republic of China, 410081
| | - Nan Zhou
- Key Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, School of Medicine, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, Hunan, People's Republic of China, 410081
| | - Jia-Jia Zhu
- Key Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, School of Medicine, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, Hunan, People's Republic of China, 410081
| | - Ruihua Feng
- Key Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, School of Medicine, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, Hunan, People's Republic of China, 410081
| | - Tong Li
- Key Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, School of Medicine, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, Hunan, People's Republic of China, 410081
| | - Yan-Bing Du
- Key Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, School of Medicine, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, Hunan, People's Republic of China, 410081
| | - Ying Liu
- Key Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, School of Medicine, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, Hunan, People's Republic of China, 410081
| | - Xiu-Qin Hong
- Key Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, School of Medicine, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, Hunan, People's Republic of China, 410081
| | - Yuan Lv
- Key Laboratory of Molecular Epidemiology of Hunan Province, School of Medicine, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, Hunan, People's Republic of China, 410081.
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Almetwally AA, Bin-Jumah M, Allam AA. Ambient air pollution and its influence on human health and welfare: an overview. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2020; 27:24815-24830. [PMID: 32363462 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-020-09042-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 77] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2020] [Accepted: 04/23/2020] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
Human health is closely related to his environment. The influence of exposure to air pollutants on human health and well-being has been an interesting subject and gained much volume of research over the last 50 years. In general, polluted air is considered one of the major factors leading to many diseases such as cardiovascular and respiratory disease and lung cancer for the people. Besides, air pollution adversely affects the animals and deteriorates the plant environment. The overarching objective of this review is to explore the previous researches regarding the causes and sources of air pollution, how to control it and its detrimental effects on human health. The definition of air pollution and its sources were introduced extensively. Major air pollutants and their noxious effects were detailed. Detrimental impacts of air pollution on human health and well-being were also presented.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alsaid Ahmed Almetwally
- Textile Engineering Department, Textile Research Division, National Research Centre, Dokki, Cairo, Egypt.
| | - May Bin-Jumah
- Biology Department, College of Science, Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Ahmed A Allam
- Department of Zoology, Faculty of Science, Beni-Suef University, Beni-Suef, 65211, Egypt
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Sikhosana ML, Kuonza L, Motaze NV. Epidemiology of laboratory-confirmed mumps infections in South Africa, 2012-2017: a cross-sectional study. BMC Public Health 2020; 20:668. [PMID: 32397991 PMCID: PMC7216493 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-020-08835-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2020] [Accepted: 05/03/2020] [Indexed: 08/30/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Data on the burden of mumps in South Africa are limited and the epidemiology of mumps in this setting is not well understood. We present an analysis of mumps data in South Africa from 2012 to 2017. Methods This cross-sectional study included secondary data on laboratory-confirmed mumps infections from 2012 to 2017, archived at the South African National Health Laboratory Services’ data repository as well as from four private laboratories. Mumps-specific immunoglobulin M (IgM) and/or viral nucleic acid positive results represented acute infections. We used age-specific mid-year population estimates for each study year as denominators when calculating annual cumulative incidence. Seasonality was based on the season that showed a peak in infections. Results Out of 48,580 records obtained from the public and private sectors, 46,713 (96.2%) were from the private sector. Over the study period, there were 7494 acute infections, 7085 (94.5%) of which were recorded in the private sector. Of these 7494 infections, 3924 (52.4%) occurred in males. The proportion of samples tested that were IgM positive was 18.6% (1058/5682) in 2012, 15% (1016/6790) in 2013, 15.8% (1280/8093) in 2014, 15.5% (1384/8944) in 2015, 13.1% (1260/9629) in 2016 and 15.8% (1496/9442) in 2017. The cumulative incidence rate per 100,000 was highest in children between one and 9 years throughout the study period. The cumulative incidence of infections was highest in the Western Cape, Gauteng and the Northern Cape. Infections peaked in June and November. Conclusion Laboratory-confirmed mumps infections predominantly occurred in spring, affecting children below 10 years of age and individuals who were male. There were fewer tests performed in the public sector compared to the private sector. Since only laboratory data was analysed our results represent and underestimate of disease burden. Further studies that include clinical data are required to provide better estimates of disease burden in South Africa.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mpho Lerato Sikhosana
- South African Field Epidemiology Training Programme, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Division of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa.
| | - Lazarus Kuonza
- South African Field Epidemiology Training Programme, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Division of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa.,Division of Public Health Surveillance and Response, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Division of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa.,School of Health Systems and Public Health, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
| | - Nkengafac Villyen Motaze
- Centre for Vaccines and Immunology, National Institute for Communicable Diseases, a division of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa.,Department of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
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The role of meteorological factors on mumps incidence among children in Guangzhou, Southern China. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0232273. [PMID: 32348370 PMCID: PMC7190132 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0232273] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2019] [Accepted: 04/10/2020] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Mumps, a common childhood disease, has a high incidence in Guangzhou city, China. It has been proven that mumps is influenced by seasonality. However, the role of meteorological factors among children is yet to be fully ascertained. This study explored the association between meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps among children in Guangzhou. Distributed lag nonlinear models were used to evaluate the correlation between meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps among children from 2014–2018. The nonlinear lag effects of some meteorological factors were detected. Mean temperature, atmospheric pressure, and relative humidity were positively correlated with mumps incidence, contrary to that of wind speed. Extreme effects of temperature, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and relative humidity on the incidence of mumps among children in Guangzhou were evaluated in a subgroup analysis according to gender and age. Our preliminary results offered fundamental information to better understand the epidemic trends of mumps among children to develop an early warning system, and strengthen the intervention and prevention of mumps.
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Su SB, Chang HL, Chen KT. Current Status of Mumps Virus Infection: Epidemiology, Pathogenesis, and Vaccine. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 17:ijerph17051686. [PMID: 32150969 PMCID: PMC7084951 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17051686] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2020] [Revised: 02/28/2020] [Accepted: 02/29/2020] [Indexed: 01/03/2023]
Abstract
Mumps is an important childhood infectious disease caused by mumps virus (MuV). We reviewed the epidemiology, pathogenesis, and vaccine development of mumps. Previous studies were identified using the key words “mumps” and “epidemiology”, “pathogenesis” or “vaccine” in MEDLINE, PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Google Scholar. We excluded the articles that were not published in the English language, manuscripts without abstracts, and opinion articles from the review. The number of cases caused by MuV decreased steeply after the introduction of the mumps vaccine worldwide. In recent years, a global resurgence of mumps cases in developed countries and cases of aseptic meningitis caused by some mumps vaccine strains have renewed the importance of MuV infection worldwide. The performance of mumps vaccination has become an important issue for controlling mumps infections. Vaccine development and routine vaccination are still effective measures to globally reduce the incidence of mumps infections. During outbreaks, a third of MMR vaccine is recommended for groups of persons determined by public authorities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shih-Bin Su
- Department of Occupational Medicine, Chi-Mei Medical Center, Tainan 710, Taiwan;
| | - Hsiao-Liang Chang
- Department of Surveillance, Centers for Disease Control, Taipei 100, Taiwan;
| | - Kow-Tong Chen
- Department of Occupational Medicine, Tainan Municipal Hospital (managed by Show Chwan Medical Care Corporation), Tainan 701, Taiwan
- Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 701, Taiwan
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +886-6-2609926; Fax: +886-6-2606351
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Wu H, You E, Jiang C, Yang Y, Wang L, Niu Q, Lu X, Huang F. Effects of extreme meteorological factors on daily mumps cases in Hefei, China, during 2011-2016. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2020; 27:4489-4501. [PMID: 31832956 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-019-07073-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/11/2019] [Accepted: 11/14/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Mumps remains one of the worldwide major health problems over the past decade. Seasonal variations of mumps indicate that meteorological factors play an important role in the development of mumps, but few studies have investigated the relationship between extreme meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps. Daily mumps cases and meteorological factors in Hefei, China, from 2011 to 2016 were obtained. A generalized additive model combined with the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to quantify the risk of extreme meteorological factors on mumps incidence. Nonlinear relationships were observed among all meteorological factors and mumps incidence. We found that extremely low and high temperatures increased the risk of mumps. The relative risks (RRs) of the cumulative effects along 30 lag days were 2.02 (95%CI: 1.14-3.56) and 2.42 (95%CI: 1.37-4.24), respectively. Both short and long sunshine duration had negative correlation on mumps, with cumulative RRs of 0.64 (95%CI: 0.46-0.92) and 0.57 (95%CI: 0.44-0.74), respectively. In the subgroup analysis, males were found to be more sensitive to extreme weather, especially extreme temperatures and sunshine duration. This study suggests that extreme meteorological factors, especially extreme temperatures and sunshine duration, exert a significant impact on the incidence of mumps. When formulating and implementing effective strategies to the prevention and control of mumps, authorities should take the effect caused by extreme meteorological factors into consideration and pay more attention to susceptible populations, such as male children and teenagers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Huabing Wu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Enqing You
- Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 86 Luan Road, Luyang District, Hefei, 230061, Anhui, China
| | - Chunxiao Jiang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Yuwei Yang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Ling Wang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Qingshan Niu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Xuelei Lu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Fen Huang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China.
- Central Laboratory of Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China.
- Laboratory for environmental Toxicology, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China.
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Nonlinear effect of wind velocity on mumps in Shenzhen, China, 2013-2016. Public Health 2019; 179:178-185. [PMID: 31863968 DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2019.10.023] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/25/2019] [Revised: 10/01/2019] [Accepted: 10/30/2019] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Plenty of studies have shown that wind velocity has an influence on airborne diseases. There is, however, no consistent conclusion found on the relationship between wind velocity and mumps, and the regional heterogeneity has been largely neglected in previous studies. This study aims to explore the association between wind velocity and mumps in Shenzhen. STUDY DESIGN Ecological study. METHODS Sixteen subdistricts with the highest incidence rates of mumps were selected from Shenzhen city, and the multilevel distributed lag-nonlinear model was conducted to explore the relationship between mumps cases and wind velocity via the dlnm and lme4 packages of the software R 3.4.3. RESULTS In Shenzhen, a total of 16,997 mumps cases were reported between 2013 and 2016, and the means of daily rainfall, temperature, relative humidity, and 10 min wind velocity were 5.74 mm, 23.27 °C, 76.31% and 1.87 m/s, respectively. Obvious nonlinear correlation relationships of wind velocity and mumps risk were found, where a reverse-V curved shape was shown in the exposure dimension with the logRR value of mumps peaking at 2 m/s, and the type of nonlinear correlation varying with the levels of wind velocity in lag dimension with a peak at two lag weeks. CONCLUSIONS The lag and nonlinear association between wind velocity and number of mumps cases were examined, while there was no statistically significant associations for other meteorological factors accounting for the regional heterogeneity. Results from this study indicated that public health administrators could strengthen health education in schools on ventilation management to prevent and control mumps outbreaks.
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Zhang D, Guo Y, Rutherford S, Qi C, Wang X, Wang P, Zheng Z, Xu Q, Li X. The relationship between meteorological factors and mumps based on Boosted regression tree model. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2019; 695:133758. [PMID: 31422317 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133758] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/16/2019] [Revised: 07/29/2019] [Accepted: 08/02/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Mumps remains a major global public health problem. Many studies have explored the relationship between meteorological factors and mumps, few have comprehensively explored such associations considering nonlinear relationship, delayed effects and collinearity in order to more accurately estimate them. This study aims to explore the relationship between meteorological factors and mumps in consideration of nonlinearity, delayed effects and collinearity. METHODS We collected daily reported mumps cases and meteorological data for Jining City, Shandong Province, China from 1 January 2007 to 31 December 2016. By building a Boosted regression tree model (BRT) for each day from lag 0days to the maximum lag time, the optimal lag time was selected and the relationship between meteorological factors and mumps was explored for this lag time. RESULTS From 2007 to 2016, a total of 15,064 cases of mumps were reported in Jining, with a sex ratio of 2.11:1. Cases were most prevalent in 5-9-year-olds (42.15%) followed by 10-14-year-olds (24.72%). The optimal lag time identified was 10days and the three meteorological factors that contributed the most to the risk of mumps were daily mean temperature, daily mean relative humidity and daily mean sunshine duration. Their relative contribution rates were 24.4%, 19.9% and 18.3%, respectively. The mean temperature and sunshine duration relationships approximated a U-shaped effect on the risk of mumps, with estimated thresholds of 5.5°C and 9.5h, respectively. The effect of relative humidity on mumps increased slightly and then decreased rapidly, with a threshold of 64%. CONCLUSIONS Our study indicates that daily mean temperature, relative humidity and sunshine duration were three significant meteorological factors associated with the incidence of mumps in Jining, China. Understanding the shape of relationships and their thresholds are critical for establishing early warning systems which are important tools in the prevention and control of mumps.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dandan Zhang
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Yuming Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | | | - Chang Qi
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Xu Wang
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Peizhu Wang
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Zhaolei Zheng
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Qing Xu
- Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, China
| | - Xiujun Li
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
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Hao J, Yang Z, Huang S, Yang W, Zhu Z, Tian L, Lu Y, Xiang H, Liu S. The association between short-term exposure to ambient air pollution and the incidence of mumps in Wuhan, China: A time-series study. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2019; 177:108660. [PMID: 31445438 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2019.108660] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/25/2019] [Revised: 08/10/2019] [Accepted: 08/12/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Previous studies have estimated the association between meteorological factors and mumps outbreaks without assessing the influence of air pollution. In this research, we explored the effects of short-term exposure to air pollution on the incidence of mumps. METHODS Our time-series analysis was conducted using data collected in Wuhan, China from 2015 to 2017. Daily number of mumps cases was obtained from Disease Reporting System in Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Data on air pollution was obtained from 10 national air quality monitoring stations, including nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), ground-level ozone (O3), particulate matter less than or equal to 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10), and particulate matter less than or equal to 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5). Daily meteorological data including temperature and relative humidity were obtained from Hubei Meteorological Bureau. We performed a Poisson regression in generalized additive models (GAM) to explore the association between the incidence of mumps and exposure to air pollution. RESULTS We observed that the effects of air pollutants were statistically significant mainly in two periods, lag 0 to lag 5 and lag 20 to lag 25, with the strongest effects appearing at lag 2 and lag 23. The cumulative effects were stronger than single-day lag effects. The stratified analysis showed the effect of pollutants during the hot season was stronger than that during the cold season, especially for NO2 and SO2. CONCLUSIONS We found that exposure to NO2 and SO2 was significantly associated with higher risk of developing mumps. Our findings could help deepen the understanding of how air pollution exposure affects the incidence of mumps.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiayuan Hao
- Department of Global Health, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, 115# Donghu Road, Wuhan, 430071, China; Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, 115# Donghu Road, Wuhan, 430071, China.
| | - Zhiyi Yang
- Department of Global Health, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, 115# Donghu Road, Wuhan, 430071, China; Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, 115# Donghu Road, Wuhan, 430071, China.
| | - Shuqiong Huang
- Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, 430079, China.
| | - Wenwen Yang
- Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, 430079, China.
| | - Zhongmin Zhu
- College of Information Science and Engineering, Wuchang Shouyi University, Wuhan, 430064, China; State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430079, China.
| | - Liqiao Tian
- State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430079, China.
| | - Yuanan Lu
- Environmental Health Laboratory, Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1960 East-West Rd, Biomed Bldg, D105, Honolulu, HI, 96822, USA.
| | - Hao Xiang
- Department of Global Health, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, 115# Donghu Road, Wuhan, 430071, China; Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, 115# Donghu Road, Wuhan, 430071, China.
| | - Suyang Liu
- Department of Global Health, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, 115# Donghu Road, Wuhan, 430071, China; Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, 115# Donghu Road, Wuhan, 430071, China.
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Zhu H, Zhao H, Ou R, Xiang H, Hu L, Jing D, Sharma M, Ye M. Epidemiological Characteristics and Spatiotemporal Analysis of Mumps from 2004 to 2018 in Chongqing, China. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2019; 16:ijerph16173052. [PMID: 31443544 PMCID: PMC6747306 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16173052] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2019] [Revised: 08/17/2019] [Accepted: 08/19/2019] [Indexed: 01/16/2023]
Abstract
Mumps vaccines have been widely used in recent years, but frequent mumps outbreaks and re-emergence around the world have not stopped. Mumps still remains a serious public health problem with a high incidence in China. The status of mumps epidemics in Chongqing, the largest city in China, is still unclear. This study aimed to investigate the epidemiological and spatiotemporal characteristics of mumps and to provide a scientific basis for formulating effective strategies for its prevention and control. Surveillance data of mumps in Chongqing from January 2004 to December 2018 were collected from the National Notifiable Diseases Reporting Information System. A descriptive analysis was conducted to understand the epidemiological characteristics. Hot spots and spatiotemporal patterns were identified by performing a spatial autocorrelation analysis, a purely spatial scan, and a spatiotemporal scan at the county level based on geographic information systems. A total of 895,429 mumps cases were reported in Chongqing, with an annual average incidence of 36.34 per 100,000. The yearly incidence of mumps decreased markedly from 2004 to 2007, increased sharply from 2007 to 2011, and then tapered with a two-year cyclical peak after 2011. The onset of mumps showed an obvious bimodal seasonal distribution, with a higher peak of mumps observed from April to July of each year. Children aged 5–9 years old, males, and students were the prime high-risk groups. The spatial distribution of mumps did not exhibit significant global autocorrelation in most years, but local indicators of spatial autocorrelation and scan statistics detected high-incidence clusters which were mainly located in the midwestern, western, northeastern, and southwestern parts of Chongqing. The aggregation time frame detected by the purely temporal scan was between March 2009 and July 2013. The incidence of mumps in Chongqing from 2004 to 2018 featured significant spatial heterogeneity and spatiotemporal clustering. The findings of this study might assist public health agencies to develop real-time space monitoring, especially in the clustering regions and at peak periods; to improve immunization strategies for long-term prevention; and to deploy health resources reasonably.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hua Zhu
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400016, China
| | - Han Zhao
- Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing 400042, China
| | - Rong Ou
- Department of Medical Informatics Library, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400016, China
| | - Haiyan Xiang
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400016, China
| | - Ling Hu
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400016, China
| | - Dan Jing
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400016, China
| | - Manoj Sharma
- Department of Behavioral and Environmental Health, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS 39213, USA
| | - Mengliang Ye
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400016, China.
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Abstract
The consistent, sporadic transmission of shigellosis in Taiwan necessitates an exploration of risk factors for the occurrence of shigellosis. The purpose of this study was to study the epidemiologic characteristics and the relationship between climatic factors and the incidence of shigellosis in Taiwan. We collected data from cases of shigellosis reported to the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control (Taiwan CDC) from 2001 to 2016. Climatic data were obtained from the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau. The relationships between weather variability and the incidence of shigellosis in Taiwan were determined via Poisson regression analyses. During the 16-year study period, a total of 4171 clinical cases of shigellosis were reported to the Taiwan CDC. Among them, 1926 (46.2%) were classified as confirmed cases. The incidence of shigellosis showed significant seasonality, with the majority of cases occurring in summertime (for oscillation, P < .001). The number of shigellosis cases started to increase when temperatures reached 21°C (r = 0.88, P < .001). Similarly, the number of shigellosis cases began to increase at a relative humidity of 70-74% (r = 0.75, P < .005). The number of shigellosis cases was positively associated with the mean temperature and relative humidity in the period preceding the infection. In conclusion, the occurrence of shigellosis is significantly associated with increasing temperature and relative humidity in Taiwan. Therefore, these factors could be regarded as warning signals indicating the need to implement preventive measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chian-Ching Chen
- Department of Business Administration, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology
| | - Chuan-Yao Lin
- Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei
| | - Kow-Tong Chen
- Department of Occupational Medicine, Tainan Municipal Hospital (Managed by Show Chwan Medical Care Corporation)
- Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan
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Hao Y, Wang RR, Han L, Wang H, Zhang X, Tang QL, Yan L, He J. Time series analysis of mumps and meteorological factors in Beijing, China. BMC Infect Dis 2019; 19:435. [PMID: 31101079 PMCID: PMC6525345 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-019-4011-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/19/2018] [Accepted: 04/22/2019] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Over the past decades there have been outbreaks of mumps in many countries, even in populations that were vaccinated. Some studies suggest that the incidence of mumps is related to meteorological changes, but the results of these studies vary in different regions. To date there is no reported study on correlations between mumps incidence and meteorological parameters in Beijing, China. Methods A time series analysis incorporating selected weather factors and the number of mumps cases from 1990 to 2012 in Beijing was performed. First, correlations between meteorological variables and the number of mumps cases were assessed. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model with explanatory variables (SARIMAX) was then constructed to predict mumps cases. Results Mean temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, vapor pressure, and wind speed were significantly associated with mumps incidence. After constructing the SARIMAX model, mean temperature at lag 0 (β = 0.016, p < 0.05, 95% confidence interval 0.001 to 0.032) was positively associated with mumps incidence, while vapor pressure at lag 2 (β = ˗0.018, p < 0.05, 95% confidence interval ˗0.038 to ˗0.002) was negatively associated. SARIMAX (1, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)12 with temperature at lag 0 was the best predictive construct. Conclusions The incidence of mumps in Beijing from 1990 to 2012 was significantly correlated with meteorological variables. Combining meteorological variables, a predictive SARIMAX model that could be used to preemptively estimate the incidence of mumps in Beijing was established. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-019-4011-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yu Hao
- School of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, No. 11, Bei San Huan East Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100029, China
| | - Ran-Ran Wang
- School of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, No. 11, Bei San Huan East Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100029, China
| | - Ling Han
- School of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, No. 11, Bei San Huan East Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100029, China
| | - Hong Wang
- School of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, No. 11, Bei San Huan East Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100029, China
| | - Xuan Zhang
- Hong Kong Chinese Medicine Clinical Study Centre, Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (Hong Kong Center), School of Chinese Medicine, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong, China
| | - Qiao-Ling Tang
- School of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, No. 11, Bei San Huan East Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100029, China
| | - Long Yan
- School of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, No. 11, Bei San Huan East Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100029, China
| | - Juan He
- School of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, No. 11, Bei San Huan East Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100029, China.
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Yu G, Yang R, Yu D, Cai J, Tang J, Zhai W, Wei Y, Chen S, Chen Q, Zhong G, Qin J. Impact of meteorological factors on mumps and potential effect modifiers: An analysis of 10 cities in Guangxi, Southern China. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2018; 166:577-587. [PMID: 29966878 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2018.06.047] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/12/2018] [Revised: 06/19/2018] [Accepted: 06/21/2018] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND In the current context of global climate change, understanding the impact of climate on respiratory infectious diseases such as mumps and the potential modified factors is crucial, especially in developing countries. However, research on the climate-related incidence of mumps is rare, inconsistent and mainly limited to a single city or region. METHODS Daily mumps cases and meteorological variables of 10 cities in Guangxi, Southern China were collected for 2005-2017. Two-stage analyses were performed to assess the relationship between meteorological factors and mumps incidence during two time-periods: 2005-2012 and 2013-2017, separately. First, a Poisson regression model that allows over-dispersion was used to estimate the city-specific climate-related morbidity after controlling for temporal trends, day of week, and national statutory holidays. Then, we used a multivariate meta-analytical model to pool the city-specific effect estimates and conducted subgroup analyses. Multivariate meta-regression was applied to detect potential effect modifiers. RESULTS Non-linear relationships were observed among mean temperature, wind speed, and mumps incidence in 2005-2012. The impact of high temperature on mumps incidence was short and rapid, whereas the impact of low temperature was long and slow. The total cumulative relative risk (RR) associated with hot temperature was 1.18 [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.93, 1.48], which was calculated by comparing the incidence of mumps above the 90th percentile of temperature with its incidence at the median temperature at lag of 0-30 days. Meanwhile, the RR associated with cold temperature was calculated to be 1.50 (95% CI: 1.08, 2.10) by comparing the incidence of mumps below the 10th percentile of temperature with its incidence at the median temperature. Similarly, the RRs associated with windless and windy conditions for the total population were 1.23 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.46) and 0.83 (95% CI: 0.67, 1.02), respectively. Effects based on extreme temperature and wind speed conditions were more prominent in males than in females. Compared with children and adults, adolescents (5-14 years old) were more sensitive to extreme weather conditions. Geographical latitude, Population density, GDP per capita, Number of health institutions, Highly educated population and Inoculation rate were considered the most likely associated modifiers. In addition, the correlation between meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps and modification of socioeconomic factors after 2013 showed similar curves compared with results in 2005-2012, but the cumulative effect was not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS Meteorological factors, such as temperature and wind speed, exert a significant impact on the incidence of mumps. The relationship varies depending on gender and age. Socioeconomic factors such as vaccination, GDP, geographical latitude, etc. may substantially affect the weather-related mumps incidence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guoqi Yu
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Guangxi Medical University, Shuangyong Road 22, Nanning, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China
| | - Rencong Yang
- Guangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Institute of Vaccination, Nanning, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China
| | - Dongmei Yu
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Guangxi Medical University, Shuangyong Road 22, Nanning, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China
| | - Jiansheng Cai
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Guangxi Medical University, Shuangyong Road 22, Nanning, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China
| | - Jiexia Tang
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Guangxi Medical University, Shuangyong Road 22, Nanning, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China
| | - Wenwen Zhai
- Department of Health Related Social and Behavioral Science, West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
| | - Yi Wei
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Guangxi Medical University, Shuangyong Road 22, Nanning, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China
| | - Shiyi Chen
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Guangxi Medical University, Shuangyong Road 22, Nanning, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China
| | - Quanhui Chen
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Guangxi Medical University, Shuangyong Road 22, Nanning, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China
| | - Ge Zhong
- Guangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Institute of Vaccination, Nanning, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China.
| | - Jian Qin
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Guangxi Medical University, Shuangyong Road 22, Nanning, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China; Guangxi Colleges and Universities Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control of Highly Prevalent Diseases, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China.
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Hu W, Li Y, Han W, Xue L, Zhang W, Ma W, Bi P. Meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps in Fujian Province, China, 2005-2013: Non-linear effects. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2018; 619-620:1286-1298. [PMID: 29734606 PMCID: PMC7112015 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.108] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2017] [Revised: 11/09/2017] [Accepted: 11/09/2017] [Indexed: 04/14/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Mumps is still an important public health issue in the world with several recent outbreaks. The seasonable distribution of the disease suggested that meteorological factors may influence the incidence of mumps. The aim of this study was to explore the possible association between meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps, and to provide scientific evidence to relevant health authorities for the disease control and prevention. METHODS We obtained the data of mumps cases and daily meteorological factors in Fujian Province in Eastern China over the period of 2005-2013. Using distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) approach, we assessed the relationship between the meteorological factors and mumps incidence. RESULTS The effects of meteorological factors on the mumps incidence were all non-linear. Compared with the lowest risk values, the upper level of precipitation, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity could increase the risk of mumps, whereas the low level of wind velocity, temperature, diurnal temperature range and sunshine duration may also increase the risk. Moderate atmospheric pressure and low wind velocity had larger cumulative effects within 30lagdays and the relative risks were 10.02 (95%CI: 2.47-40.71) and 12.45 (95%CI: 1.40-110.78). For temperature, the cumulative effect within 30lagdays of minimum temperature was higher than that from maximum temperature in most populations. The cumulative effects of minimum temperature for males, children aged 10-14 and students were higher than those in other populations. CONCLUSIONS Meteorological factors, especially temperature and wind velocity, should be taken into consideration in the prevention and warning of possible mumps epidemic. Special attention should be paid to the vulnerable populations, such as teenagers and young adults.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenqi Hu
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, 44 West Wenhua Road, Jinan, Shandong 250012, PR China
| | - Yuying Li
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, 44 West Wenhua Road, Jinan, Shandong 250012, PR China
| | - Weixiao Han
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, 44 West Wenhua Road, Jinan, Shandong 250012, PR China
| | - Li Xue
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, 44 West Wenhua Road, Jinan, Shandong 250012, PR China
| | - Wenchao Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, 44 West Wenhua Road, Jinan, Shandong 250012, PR China
| | - Wei Ma
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, 44 West Wenhua Road, Jinan, Shandong 250012, PR China; Climate Change and Health Center, Shandong University, 44 West Wenhua Road, Jinan, Shandong 250012, PR China.
| | - Peng Bi
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Level 8, Hughes Building, North Terrace Campus, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia.
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Phung D, Nguyen HX, Nguyen HLT, Luong AM, Do CM, Tran QD, Chu C. The effects of socioecological factors on variation of communicable diseases: A multiple-disease study at the national scale of Vietnam. PLoS One 2018; 13:e0193246. [PMID: 29494623 PMCID: PMC5832231 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0193246] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2017] [Accepted: 02/07/2018] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To examine the effects of socioecological factors on multiple communicable diseases across Vietnam. METHODS We used the Moran's I tests to evaluate spatial clusters of diseases and applied multilevel negative binomial regression models using the Bayesian framework to analyse the association between socioecological factors and the diseases queried by oral, airborne, vector-borne, and animal transmission diseases. RESULTS AND SIGNIFICANCE The study found that oral-transmission diseases were spatially distributed across the country; whereas, the airborne-transmission diseases were more clustered in the Northwest and vector-borne transmission diseases were more clustered in the South. Most of diseases were sensitive with climatic factors. For instance, a 1°C increase in average temperature is significantly associated with 0.4% (95CI, 0.3-0.5), 2.5% (95%CI, 1.4-3.6), 0.9% (95%CI, 0.6-1.4), 1.1% (95%CI), 5% (95%CI, 3-.7.4), 0.4% (95%CI, 0.2-0.7), and 2% (95%CI, 1.5-2.8) increase in risk of diarrhoea, shigellosis, mumps, influenza, dengue, malaria, and rabies respectively. The influences of socio-economic factors on risk of communicable diseases are varied by factors with the biggest influence of population density. The research findings reflect an important implication for the climate change adaptation strategies of health sectors. A development of weather-based early warning systems should be considered to strengthen communicable disease prevention in Vietnam.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dung Phung
- Centre for Environment and Population Health, Menzies Health Institute Queensland, Griffith University, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Huong Xuan Nguyen
- Da Nang University of Medical Technology and Pharmacy, Da Nang, Vietnam
| | | | - Anh Mai Luong
- Health Environment Management Agency, Ministry of Health, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Cuong Manh Do
- Health Environment Management Agency, Ministry of Health, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Quang Dai Tran
- General Department of Preventive Medicine, Ministry of Health, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Cordia Chu
- Centre for Environment and Population Health, Menzies Health Institute Queensland, Griffith University, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
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24
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Lin CL, Chang HL, Lin CY, Chen KT. Seasonal Patterns of Japanese Encephalitis and Associated Meteorological Factors in Taiwan. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2017; 14:E1317. [PMID: 29109371 PMCID: PMC5707956 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph14111317] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/22/2017] [Revised: 10/25/2017] [Accepted: 10/27/2017] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
The persistent transmission of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) in Taiwan necessitates exploring the risk factors of occurrence of Japanese encephalitis (JE). The purpose of this study was to assess the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of JE in Taiwan. We collected data for cases of JE reported to the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control (Taiwan CDC) from 2000 to 2014. Meteorological data were obtained from the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau. The relationships between weather variability and the incidence of JE in Taiwan were determined via Poisson regression analysis and a case-crossover methodology. During the 15-year study period, a total of 379 cases of JE were reported. The incidence of JE showed significant seasonality, with the majority of cases occurring in summertime (for oscillation, p < 0.001). The number of JE cases started to increase at temperatures of 22 °C (r² = 0.88, p < 0.001). Similarly, the number of JE cases began to increase at a relative humidity of 70-74% (r² = 0.75, p < 0.005). The number of JE cases was positively associated with mean temperature and relative humidity in the period preceding the infection. In conclusion, the occurrence of JE is significantly associated with increasing temperature and relative humidity in Taiwan. Therefore, these factors could be regarded as warning signals indicating the need to implement preventive measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Che-Liang Lin
- Internal Medicine Chest Division, Chi-Mei Medical Center, Liouying, Tainan 736, Taiwan.
| | - Hsiao-Ling Chang
- Division of Infection Control and Biosafety, Centers for Disease Control, Ministry of Health and Welfare, Taipei 104, Taiwan.
- School of Public Health, National Defense Medical Center, National Defense University, Taipei 117, Taiwan.
| | - Chuan-Yao Lin
- Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, 115, Taiwan.
| | - Kow-Tong Chen
- Department of Occupational Medicine, Tainan Municipal Hospital (Managed by Show Chwan Medical Care Corporation), Tainan 701, Taiwan.
- Department of Public Health, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 701, Taiwan.
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25
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Li R, Cheng S, Luo C, Rutherford S, Cao J, Xu Q, Liu X, Liu Y, Xue F, Xu Q, Li X. Epidemiological Characteristics and Spatial-Temporal Clusters of Mumps in Shandong Province, China, 2005-2014. Sci Rep 2017; 7:46328. [PMID: 28397866 PMCID: PMC5387744 DOI: 10.1038/srep46328] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/02/2016] [Accepted: 03/15/2017] [Indexed: 01/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Mumps presents a serious threat to public health in China. We conducted a descriptive analysis to identify the epidemiological characteristics of mumps in Shandong Province. Spatial autocorrelation and space-time scan analyses were utilized to detect spatial-temporal clusters. From 2005 to 2014, 115745 mumps cases were reported in Shandong, with an average male-to-female ratio of 1.94. Mumps occurred mostly in spring (32.17% of all reported cases) and in children aged 5 to 9 (40.79% of all reported cases). The Moran’s I test was significant and local indicators of spatial autocorrelation (LISA) analysis revealed significant spatial clusters with high incidence. The results showed that the mid-west of Shandong Province and some coastal regions (Qingdao City and Weihai City) were high-risk areas, particularly in the center of the Jining City and the junction of Dongying City, Binzhou City and Zibo City. The results could assist local and national public health agencies in formulating better public health strategic planning and resource allocation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Runzi Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China
| | - Shenghui Cheng
- Visual Analytics and Imaging Lab, Computer Science Department, Stony Brook University, New York 10024, America
| | - Cheng Luo
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China
| | - Shannon Rutherford
- School of Medicine &Centre for Environment and Population Health, Griffith University, Queensland 4218, Australia
| | - Jin Cao
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China
| | - Qinqin Xu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China
| | - Xiaodong Liu
- Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China
| | - Yanxun Liu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China
| | - Fuzhong Xue
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China
| | - Qing Xu
- Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China
| | - Xiujun Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, Shandong, China
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26
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Li R, Lin H, Liang Y, Zhang T, Luo C, Jiang Z, Xu Q, Xue F, Liu Y, Li X. The short-term association between meteorological factors and mumps in Jining, China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2016; 568:1069-1075. [PMID: 27353959 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.06.158] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2016] [Revised: 06/20/2016] [Accepted: 06/20/2016] [Indexed: 04/15/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND An increasing trend of the incidence of mumps has been observed in a few developing countries in recent years, presenting a major threat to children's health. A few studies have examined the relationship between meteorological factors and mumps with inconsistent findings. METHODS The daily data of meteorological variables and mumps from 2009 to 2013 were obtained from Jining, a temperate inland city of China. A generalized additive model was used to quantify the association between meteorological factors and mumps based on the exposure-response relationship. RESULTS A total of 8520 mumps cases were included in this study. We found a nonlinear relationship of daily mean temperature, sunshine duration and relative humidity with mumps, with an approximately linear association for mean temperature above 4°C (excess risk (ER) for 1°C increase was 2.72%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.38%, 3.05% on the current day), for relative humidity above 54%, the ER for 1% increase was -1.86% (95% CI: -2.06%, -1.65%) at lag day 14; and for sunshine duration higher than 5h/d, the ER for per 1h/d increase was12.91% (95% CI: 11.38%, 14.47%) at lag day 1. While we found linear effects for daily wind speed (ER: 2.98%, 95% CI: 2.71%, 3.26% at lag day 13). CONCLUSIONS This study suggests that meteorological factors might be important predictors of incidence of mumps, and should be considered in its control and prevention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Runzi Li
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Hualiang Lin
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
| | - Yumin Liang
- Jining Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jining, Shandong, China
| | - Tao Zhang
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Cheng Luo
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Zheng Jiang
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Qinqin Xu
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Fuzhong Xue
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Yanxun Liu
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
| | - Xiujun Li
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China.
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