Emerging Themes and Approaches in Plant Virus Epidemiology

Plant diseases caused by viruses share many common features with those caused by other pathogen taxa in terms of the host-pathogen interaction, but there are also distinctive features in epidemiology, most apparent where transmission is by vectors. Consequently, the host-virus-vector-environment interaction presents a continuing challenge in attempts to understand and predict the course of plant virus epidemics. Theoretical concepts, based on the underlying biology, can be expressed in mathematical models and tested through quantitative assessments of epidemics in the field; this remains a goal in understanding why plant virus epidemics occur and how they can be controlled. To this end, this review identifies recent emerging themes and approaches to fill in knowledge gaps in plant virus epidemiology. We review quantitative work on the impact of climatic fluctuations and change on plants, viruses, and vectors under different scenarios where impacts on the individual components of the plant-virus-vector interaction may vary disproportionately; there is a continuing, sometimes discordant, debate on host resistance and tolerance as plant defense mechanisms, including aspects of farmer behavior and attitudes toward disease management that may affect deployment in crops; disentangling host-virus-vector-environment interactions, as these contribute to temporal and spatial disease progress in field populations; computational techniques for estimating epidemiological parameters from field observations; and the use of optimal control analysis to assess disease control options. We end by proposing new challenges and questions in plant virus epidemiology.

Intraspecific trait variation and changing life-history strategies explain host community disease risk along a temperature gradient

Predicting how climate change will affect disease risk is complicated by the fact that changing environmental conditions can affect disease through direct and indirect effects. Species with fast-paced life-history strategies often amplify disease, and changing climate can modify life-history composition of communities thereby altering disease risk. However, individuals within a species can also respond to changing conditions with intraspecific trait variation. To test the effect of temperature, as well as inter- and intraspecifc trait variation on community disease risk, we measured foliar disease and specific leaf area (SLA; a proxy for life-history strategy) on more than 2500 host (plant) individuals in 199 communities across a 1101 m elevational gradient in southeastern Switzerland. There was no direct effect of increasing temperature on disease. Instead, increasing temperature favoured species with higher SLA, fast-paced life-history strategies. This effect was balanced by intraspecific variation in SLA: on average, host individuals expressed lower SLA with increasing temperature, and this effect was stronger among species adapted to warmer temperatures and lower latitudes. These results demonstrate how impacts of changing temperature on disease may depend on how temperature combines and interacts with host community structure while indicating that evolutionary constraints can determine how these effects are manifested under global change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease ecology and evolution in a changing world'.

Mammal assemblage composition predicts global patterns in emerging infectious disease risk

As a source of emerging infectious diseases, wildlife assemblages (and related spatial patterns) must be quantitatively assessed to help identify high-risk locations. Previous assessments have largely focussed on the distributions of individual species; however, transmission dynamics are expected to depend on assemblage composition. Moreover, disease-diversity relationships have mainly been studied in the context of species loss, but assemblage composition and disease risk (e.g. infection prevalence in wildlife assemblages) can change without extinction. Based on the predicted distributions and abundances of 4466 mammal species, we estimated global patterns of disease risk through the calculation of the community-level basic reproductive ratio R0, an index of invasion potential, persistence, and maximum prevalence of a pathogen in a wildlife assemblage. For density-dependent diseases, we found that, in addition to tropical areas which are commonly viewed as infectious disease hotspots, northern temperate latitudes included high-risk areas. We also forecasted the effects of climate change and habitat loss from 2015 to 2035. Over this period, many local assemblages showed no net loss of species richness, but the assemblage composition (i.e. the mix of species and their abundances) changed considerably. Simultaneously, most areas experienced a decreased risk of density-dependent diseases but an increased risk of frequency-dependent diseases. We further explored the factors driving these changes in disease risk. Our results suggest that biodiversity and changes therein jointly influence disease risk. Understanding these changes and their drivers and ultimately identifying emerging infectious disease hotspots can help health officials prioritize resource distribution.

Host population structure for tolerance determines the evolution of plant-virus interactions

Heterogeneity for plant defences determines both the capacity of host populations to buffer the effect of infection and the pathogen´s fitness. However, little information is known on how host population structure for tolerance, a major plant defence, impacts the evolution of plant-pathogen interactions. By performing 10 serial passages of Turnip mosaic virus (TuMV) in Arabidopsis thaliana populations with varying proportion of tolerant genotypes simulating different structures for this trait, we analysed how host heterogeneity for this defence shapes the evolution of both virus multiplication, the effect of infection on plant fecundity and mortality, and plant tolerance and resistance. Results indicated that a higher proportion of tolerant genotypes in the host population promotes virus multiplication and reduces the effect of infection on plant mortality, but not on plant fecundity. These changes resulted in more effective plant tolerance to virus infection. Conversely, a lower proportion of tolerant genotypes reduced virus multiplication, boosting plant resistance. Our work for the first time provides evidence of the main role of host population structure for tolerance on pathogen evolution and on the subsequent feedback loops on plant defences.

The effect of host community functional traits on plant disease risk varies along an elevational gradient

Quantifying the relative impact of environmental conditions and host community structure on disease is one of the greatest challenges of the 21st century, as both climate and biodiversity are changing at unprecedented rates. Both increasing temperature and shifting host communities toward more fast-paced life-history strategies are predicted to increase disease, yet their independent and interactive effects on disease in natural communities remain unknown. Here, we address this challenge by surveying foliar disease symptoms in 220, 0.5 m-diameter herbaceous plant communities along a 1100-m elevational gradient. We find that increasing temperature associated with lower elevation can increase disease by (1) relaxing constraints on parasite growth and reproduction, (2) determining which host species are present in a given location, and (3) strengthening the positive effect of host community pace-of-life on disease. These results provide the first field evidence, under natural conditions, that environmental gradients can alter how host community structure affects disease.

Climate change is causing shifts in the ecology and biodiversity of different world regions at unprecedented rates. Global warming is also linked with changes in the risk for certain infectious diseases in humans, but also in animals and plants. There are several possible mechanisms for this. For one thing, changing weather patterns may affect how pathogens grow and reproduce. For another, the distribution ranges of animal and plant hosts of certain disease-causing pathogens are changing because of global warming. This means that the distributions of pathogens are also changing, and so is the severity of the diseases that they cause.

Increasing temperatures may also influence the physiological traits that make host species suitable for pathogens. This is because the traits that allow species to survive or adapt to changes in their environment may also make them better at hosting and transmitting the pathogens that cause disease. For example, in plant communities, rising temperatures could favor species with faster growth rates, quicker reproduction and high dispersal, and these traits are often associated with more efficient spread of disease.

Despite a lot of research into the effects of climate, it remains unclear how temperature, pathogen growth and reproduction, and host species’ traits and distributions combine and interact to alter infectious disease risk, especially in wild plant communities. To investigate this, Halliday, Jalo and Laine studied an area in southeast Switzerland where natural temperature and biodiversity change gradually through the region. The aim was to explore how relationships between plant biodiversity, pathogens and disease risk change with temperature, and to understand whether environmental or biological factors influence infectious disease risk more.

Halliday, Jalo and Laine measured the levels of fungal diseases found in the leaves of plant communities spanning 1,100 meters of elevation, showing that higher temperatures increase disease risk both directly and indirectly. Directly, higher temperatures increased pathogen growth and reproduction, and indirectly, they influenced which plants were present and therefore able to act as disease hosts. The results also indicated that temperature can affect how the traits of plants drive the transmission rates of fungal pathogens. Important predictors of disease risk were traits relating to the growth rate of host plants, which tended to increase in areas with low elevation where the surface of the soil was warm.

This study represents the first analysis, in wild plants, of how changing temperatures, the traits of shifting host species, and resident parasite populations interact to impact infectious disease risk. The insights Halliday, Jalo and Laine provided could aid in predicting how global climate change will influence infectious disease risk.

Life history and population regulation shape demographic competence and influence the maintenance of endemic disease

Host life history and demography play important roles in host-pathogen dynamics, by influencing the ability of hosts and their pathogens to coexist. We introduce the concept of demographic competence to describe the ability of host populations to sustain endemic infectious disease. Hosts with high demographic competence are more likely to act as keystone hosts and constitute reservoirs of infection that can spill over into other species. We propose that the pace of host life history will interact with pathogen life history to influence demographic competence. Our models demonstrate that slow-living hosts (with high survival and low recruitment rates) have greater demographic competence than fast-living hosts (with low survival and high recruitment rates) for susceptible-infected disease dynamics, although this difference is reduced when populations of slow hosts are age structured. Demographic competence is generally greater among hosts with populations regulated by survival compared to reproduction, but this difference is smallest among slow life histories and reversed for some pathogens with frequency-dependent transmission. An association between pathogen life history traits and the demographic competence of faster-living hosts also has implications for trade-offs between pathogen virulence and transmissibility. Overall, we demonstrate how host life history traits can help predict wildlife reservoirs of zoonoses and the vulnerability of populations to disease-induced extinction.

Sick plants in grassland communities: a growth-defense trade-off is the main driver of fungal pathogen abundance

Aboveground fungal pathogens can substantially reduce biomass production in grasslands. However, we lack a mechanistic understanding of the drivers of fungal pathogen infection and impact. Using a grassland global change and biodiversity experiment we show that the trade-off between plant growth and defense is the main determinant of infection incidence. In contrast, nitrogen addition only indirectly increased incidence via shifting plant communities towards faster growing species. Plant diversity did not decrease incidence, likely because spillover of generalist pathogens or dominance of susceptible plants counteracted negative diversity effects. A fungicide treatment increased plant biomass production and high levels of infection incidence were associated with reduced biomass. However, pathogen impact was context dependent and infection incidence reduced biomass more strongly in diverse communities. Our results show that a growth-defense trade-off is the key driver of pathogen incidence, but pathogen impact is determined by several mechanisms and may depend on pathogen community composition.

Deeply conserved susceptibility in a multi-host, multi-parasite system

Variation in susceptibility is ubiquitous in multi-host, multi-parasite assemblages, and can have profound implications for ecology and evolution in these systems. The extent to which susceptibility to parasites is phylogenetically conserved among hosts can be revealed by analysing diverse regional communities. We screened for haemosporidian parasites in 3983 birds representing 40 families and 523 species, spanning ~ 4500 m elevation in the tropical Andes. To quantify the influence of host phylogeny on infection status, we applied Bayesian phylogenetic multilevel models that included a suite of environmental, spatial, temporal, life history and ecological predictors. We found evidence of deeply conserved susceptibility across the avian tree; host phylogeny explained substantial variation in infection status, and results were robust to phylogenetic uncertainty. Our study suggests that susceptibility is governed, in part, by conserved, latent aspects of anti-parasite defence. This demonstrates the importance of deep phylogeny for understanding present-day ecological interactions.

Evolutionary Determinants of Host and Vector Manipulation by Plant Viruses

Plant viruses possess adaptations for facilitating acquisition, retention, and inoculation by vectors. Until recently, it was hypothesized that these adaptations are limited to virus proteins that enable virions to bind to vector mouthparts or invade their internal tissues. However, increasing evidence suggests that viruses can also manipulate host plant phenotypes and vector behaviors in ways that enhance their own transmission. Manipulation of vector-host interactions occurs through virus effects on host cues that mediate vector orientation, feeding, and dispersal behaviors, and thereby, the probability of virus transmission. Effects on host phenotypes vary by pathosystem but show a remarkable degree of convergence among unrelated viruses whose transmission is favored by the same vector behaviors. Convergence based on transmission mechanism, rather than phylogeny, supports the hypothesis that virus effects are adaptive and not just by-products of infection. Based on this, it has been proposed that viruses manipulate hosts through multifunctional proteins that facilitate exploitation of host resources and elicitation of specific changes in host phenotypes. But this proposition is rarely discussed in the context of the numerous constraints on virus evolution imposed by molecular and environmental factors, which figure prominently in research on virus-host interactions not dealing with host manipulation. To explore the implications of this oversight, we synthesized available literature to identify patterns in virus effects among pathogens with shared transmission mechanisms and discussed the results of this synthesis in the context of molecular and environmental constraints on virus evolution, limitations of existing studies, and prospects for future research.

Plant Virus Epidemiology: Applications and Prospects for Mathematical Modeling and Analysis to Improve Understanding and Disease Control

In recent years, mathematical modeling has increasingly been used to complement experimental and observational studies of biological phenomena across different levels of organization. In this article, we consider the contribution of mathematical models developed using a wide range of techniques and uses to the study of plant virus disease epidemics. Our emphasis is on the extent to which models have contributed to answering biological questions and indeed raised questions related to the epidemiology and ecology of plant viruses and the diseases caused. In some cases, models have led to direct applications in disease control, but arguably their impact is better judged through their influence in guiding research direction and improving understanding across the characteristic spatiotemporal scales of plant virus epidemics. We restrict this article to plant virus diseases for reasons of length and to maintain focus even though we recognize that modeling has played a major and perhaps greater part in the epidemiology of other plant pathogen taxa, including vector-borne bacteria and phytoplasmas.

Ecological Complexity in Plant Virus Host Range Evolution

The host range of a plant virus is the number of species in which it can reproduce. Most studies of plant virus host range evolution have focused on the genetics of host-pathogen interactions. However, the distribution and abundance of plant viruses and their hosts do not always overlap, and these spatial and temporal discontinuities in plant virus-host interactions can result in various ecological processes that shape host range evolution. Recent work shows that the distributions of pathogenic and resistant genotypes, vectors, and other resources supporting transmission vary widely in the environment, producing both expected and unanticipated patterns. The distributions of all of these factors are influenced further by competitive effects, natural enemies, anthropogenic disturbance, the abiotic environment, and herbivory to mention some. We suggest the need for further development of approaches that (i) explicitly consider resource use and the abiotic and biotic factors that affect the strategies by which viruses exploit resources; and (ii) are sensitive across scales. Host range and habitat specificity will largely determine which phyla are most likely to be new hosts, but predicting which host and when it is likely to be infected is enormously challenging because it is unclear how environmental heterogeneity affects the interactions of viruses and hosts.

Behavioural phenotypes predict disease susceptibility and infectiousness

Behavioural phenotypes may provide a means for identifying individuals that disproportionally contribute to disease spread and epizootic outbreaks. For example, bolder phenotypes may experience greater exposure and susceptibility to pathogenic infection because of distinct interactions with conspecifics and their environment. We tested the value of behavioural phenotypes in larval amphibians for predicting ranavirus transmission in experimental trials. We found that behavioural phenotypes characterized by latency-to-food and swimming profiles were predictive of disease susceptibility and infectiousness defined as the capacity of an infected host to transmit an infection by contacts. While viral shedding rates were positively associated with transmission, we also found an inverse relationship between contacts and infections. Together these results suggest intrinsic traits that influence behaviour and the quantity of pathogens shed during conspecific interactions may be an important contributor to ranavirus transmission. These results suggest that behavioural phenotypes provide a means to identify individuals more likely to spread disease and thus give insights into disease outbreaks that threaten wildlife and humans.

Mixed Infections of Four Viruses, the Incidence and Phylogenetic Relationships of Sweet Potato Chlorotic Fleck Virus (Betaflexiviridae) Isolates in Wild Species and Sweetpotatoes in Uganda and Evidence of Distinct Isolates in East Africa

Viruses infecting wild flora may have a significant negative impact on nearby crops, and vice-versa. Only limited information is available on wild species able to host economically important viruses that infect sweetpotatoes (Ipomoea batatas). In this study, Sweet potato chlorotic fleck virus (SPCFV; Carlavirus, Betaflexiviridae) and Sweet potato chlorotic stunt virus (SPCSV; Crinivirus, Closteroviridae) were surveyed in wild plants of family Convolvulaceae (genera Astripomoea, Ipomoea, Hewittia and Lepistemon) in Uganda. Plants belonging to 26 wild species, including annuals, biannuals and perennials from four agro-ecological zones, were observed for virus-like symptoms in 2004 and 2007 and sampled for virus testing. SPCFV was detected in 84 (2.9%) of 2864 plants tested from 17 species. SPCSV was detected in 66 (5.4%) of the 1224 plants from 12 species sampled in 2007. Some SPCSV-infected plants were also infected with Sweet potato feathery mottle virus (SPFMV; Potyvirus, Potyviridae; 1.3%), Sweet potato mild mottle virus (SPMMV; Ipomovirus, Potyviridae; 0.5%) or both (0.4%), but none of these three viruses were detected in SPCFV-infected plants. Co-infection of SPFMV with SPMMV was detected in 1.2% of plants sampled. Virus-like symptoms were observed in 367 wild plants (12.8%), of which 42 plants (11.4%) were negative for the viruses tested. Almost all (92.4%) the 419 sweetpotato plants sampled from fields close to the tested wild plants displayed virus-like symptoms, and 87.1% were infected with one or more of the four viruses. Phylogenetic and evolutionary analyses of the 3'-proximal genomic region of SPCFV, including the silencing suppressor (NaBP)- and coat protein (CP)-coding regions implicated strong purifying selection on the CP and NaBP, and that the SPCFV strains from East Africa are distinguishable from those from other continents. However, the strains from wild species and sweetpotato were indistinguishable, suggesting reciprocal movement of SPCFV between wild and cultivated Convolvulaceae plants in the field.

The diversity-disease relationship: evidence for and criticisms of the dilution effect

The dilution effect, that high host species diversity can reduce disease risk, has attracted much attention in the context of global biodiversity decline and increasing disease emergence. Recent studies have criticized the generality of the dilution effect and argued that it only occurs under certain circumstances. Nevertheless, evidence for the existence of a dilution effect was reported in about 80% of the studies that addressed the diversity-disease relationship, and a recent meta-analysis found that the dilution effect is widespread. We here review supporting and critical studies, point out the causes underlying the current disputes. The dilution is expected to be strong when the competent host species tend to remain when species diversity declines, characterized as a negative relationship between species' reservoir competence and local extinction risk. We here conclude that most studies support a negative competence-extinction relationship. We then synthesize the current knowledge on how the diversity-disease relationship can be modified by particular species in community, by the scales of analyses, and by the disease risk measures. We also highlight the complex role of habitat fragmentation in the diversity-disease relationship from epidemiological, evolutionary and ecological perspectives, and construct a synthetic framework integrating these three perspectives. We suggest that future studies should test the diversity-disease relationship across different scales and consider the multiple effects of landscape fragmentation.

The context of host competence: a role for plasticity in host-parasite dynamics

Even apparently similar hosts can respond differently to the same parasites. Some individuals or specific groups of individuals disproportionately affect disease dynamics. Understanding the sources of among-host heterogeneity in the ability to transmit parasites would improve disease management. A major source of host variation might be phenotypic plasticity - the tendency for phenotypes to change across different environments. Plasticity might be as important as, or even more important than, genetic change, especially in light of human modifications of the environment, because it can occur on a more rapid timescale than evolution. We argue that variation in phenotypic plasticity among and within species strongly contributes to epidemiological dynamics when parasites are shared among multiple hosts, which is often the case.

Viral pathogen production in a wild grass host driven by host growth and soil nitrogen

Nutrient limitation is a basic ecological constraint that has received little attention in studies on virus production and disease dynamics. Nutrient availability could directly limit the production of viral nucleic acids and proteins, or alternatively limit host growth and thus indirectly limit metabolic pathways necessary for viral replication. In order to compare direct and indirect effects of nutrient limitation on virus production within hosts, we manipulated soil nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) availability in a glasshouse for the wild grass host Bromus hordeaceus and the viral pathogen Barley yellow dwarf virus-PAV. We found that soil N additions increased viral concentrations within host tissues, and the effect was mediated by host growth. Specifically, in statistical models evaluating the roles of host biomass production, leaf N and leaf P, viral production depended most strongly on host biomass, rather than the concentration of either nutrient. Furthermore, at low soil N, larger plants supported greater viral concentrations than smaller ones, whereas at high N, smaller plants supported greater viral concentrations. Our results suggest that enhanced viral productivity under N enrichment is an indirect consequence of nutrient stimulation to host growth rate. Heightened pathogen production in plants has important implications for a world facing increasing rates of nutrient deposition.

Differential Impacts of Virus Diversity on Biomass Production of a Native and an Exotic Grass Host

Pathogens are common and diverse in natural communities and have been implicated in the success of host invasions. Yet few studies have experimentally measured how pathogens impact native versus exotic hosts, particularly when individual hosts are simultaneously coinfected by diverse pathogens. To estimate effects of interactions among multiple pathogens within host individuals on both transmission of pathogens and fitness consequences for hosts, we conducted a greenhouse experiment using California grassland species: the native perennial grass Nassella (Stipa) pulchra, the exotic annual grass Bromus hordeaceus, and three virus species, Barley yellow dwarf virus-PAV, Barley yellow dwarf virus-MAV, and Cereal yellow dwarf virus-RPV. In terms of virus transmission, the native host was less susceptible than the exotic host to MAV. Coinfection of PAV and MAV did not occur in any of the 157 co-inoculated native host plants. In the exotic host, PAV infection most strongly reduced root and shoot biomass, and coinfections that included PAV severely reduced biomass. Infection with single or multiple viruses did not affect biomass in the native host. However, in this species the most potentially pathogenic coinfections (PAV + MAV and PAV + MAV + RPV) did not occur. Together, these results suggest that interactions among multiple pathogens can have important consequences for host health, which may not be predictable from interactions between hosts and individual pathogens. This work addresses a key empirical gap in understanding the impact of multiple generalist pathogens on competing host species, with potential implications for population and community dynamics of native and exotic species. It also demonstrates how pathogens with relatively mild impacts independently can more substantially reduce host performance in coinfection.

Resources, mortality, and disease ecology: Importance of positive feedbacks between host growth rate and pathogen dynamics

Resource theory and metabolic scaling theory suggest that the dynamics of a pathogen within a host should strongly depend upon the rate of host cell metabolism. Once an infection occurs, key ecological interactions occur on or within the host organism that determine whether the pathogen dies out, persists as a chronic infection, or grows to densities that lead to host death. We hypothesize that, in general, conditions favoring rapid host growth rates should amplify the replication and proliferation of both fungal and viral pathogens. If a host population experiences an increase in mortality, to persist it must have a higher growth rate, per host, often reflecting greater resource availability per capita. We hypothesize that this could indirectly foster the pathogen, which also benefits from increased within-host resource turnover. We first bring together in a short review a number of key prior studies which illustrate resource effects on viral and fungal pathogen dynamics. We then report new results from a semi-continuous cell culture experiment with SHIV, demonstrating that higher mortality rates indeed can promote viral proliferation. We develop a simple model that illustrates dynamical consequences of these resource effects, including interesting effects such as alternative stable states and oscillatory dynamics. Our paper contributes to a growing body of literature at the interface of ecology and infectious disease epidemiology, emphasizing that host abundances alone do not drive community dynamics: the physiological state and resource content of infected hosts also strongly influence host-pathogen interactions.

Dilution versus facilitation: Impact of connectivity on disease risk in metapopulations

Epidemiological studies have suggested that increasing connectivity in metapopulations usually facilitates pathogen transmission. However, these studies focusing on single-host systems usually neglect that increasing connectivity can increase species diversity which might reduce pathogen transmission via the 'dilution effect', a hypothesis whose generality is still disputed. On the other hand, studies investigating the generality of the dilution effect were usually conducted without considering habitat structure, which is surprising as species loss is often driven by habitat fragmentation. Using a simple general model to link fragmentation to the dilution effect, we determined the effect of connectivity on disease risk and explored when the dilution effect can be detected. We showed that landscape structure can largely modify the diversity-disease relationship. The net impact of connectivity on disease risk can be either positive or negative, depending on the relative importance of the facilitation effect (through increasing contact rates among patches) versus the dilution effect (via increasing species richness). We also demonstrated that different risk indices (i.e. infection prevalence and abundance of infected hosts) react differently to increasing connectivity and species richness. Our study may contribute to the current debate on the dilution effect, and a better understanding of the impacts of fragmentation on disease risks.

The relationship between host lifespan and pathogen reservoir potential: an analysis in the system Arabidopsis thaliana--cucumber mosaic virus

Identification of the determinants of pathogen reservoir potential is central to understand disease emergence. It has been proposed that host lifespan is one such determinant: short-lived hosts will invest less in costly defenses against pathogens, so that they will be more susceptible to infection, more competent as sources of infection and/or will sustain larger vector populations, thus being effective reservoirs for the infection of long-lived hosts. This hypothesis is sustained by analyses of different hosts of multihost pathogens, but not of different genotypes of the same host species. Here we examined this hypothesis by comparing two genotypes of the plant Arabidopsis thaliana that differ largely both in life-span and in tolerance to its natural pathogen Cucumber mosaic virus (CMV). Experiments with the aphid vector Myzus persicae showed that both genotypes were similarly competent as sources for virus transmission, but the short-lived genotype was more susceptible to infection and was able to sustain larger vector populations. To explore how differences in defense against CMV and its vector relate to reservoir potential, we developed a model that was run for a set of experimentally-determined parameters, and for a realistic range of host plant and vector population densities. Model simulations showed that the less efficient defenses of the short-lived genotype resulted in higher reservoir potential, which in heterogeneous host populations may be balanced by the longer infectious period of the long-lived genotype. This balance was modulated by the demography of both host and vector populations, and by the genetic composition of the host population. Thus, within-species genetic diversity for lifespan and defenses against pathogens will result in polymorphisms for pathogen reservoir potential, which will condition within-population infection dynamics. These results are relevant for a better understanding of host-pathogen co-evolution, and of the dynamics of pathogen emergence.

Understanding pathogen emergence is a major goal of pathology, because of the high impact of emerging diseases. Pathogens emerge onto a new host from a reservoir, hence the relevance of identifying the determinants of host's reservoir potential. Host lifespan is considered as one such determinant: short-lived hosts will invest less in defenses, being more susceptible to infection, more competent as infection sources and/or will sustain larger vector populations, and thus, are effective reservoirs for long-lived host infection. Evidence for this hypothesis derives from analyses of different hosts of multihost pathogens, and here we examine whether it holds at the within-species level by comparing two genotypes of the plant Arabidopsis thaliana that differ in life-span and in tolerance to its natural pathogen Cucumber mosaic virus. Experiments showed that defenses to the virus and its aphid vector were less efficient in the short-lived genotype that, according to model simulations, was an effective reservoir under a large range of conditions. Reservoir potential, though, was modulated by the demography of host and vector and by the genetic composition of the host population. Thus, within-species genetic diversity for lifespan and pathogen defense will result in differences in reservoir potential, which will condition infection dynamics and host-pathogen co-evolution.