A Long-Lived Alpine Perennial Advances Flowering under Warmer Conditions but Not Enough to Maintain Reproductive Success

AbstractAssessing whether phenological shifts in response to climate change confer a fitness advantage requires investigating the relationships among phenology, fitness, and environmental drivers of selection. Despite widely documented advancements in phenology with warming climate, we lack empirical estimates of how selection on phenology varies in response to continuous climate drivers or how phenological shifts in response to warming conditions affect fitness. We leverage an unusual long-term dataset with repeated, individual measurements of phenology and reproduction in a long-lived alpine plant. We analyze phenotypic plasticity in flowering phenology in relation to two climate drivers, snowmelt timing and growing degree days (GDDs). Plants flower earlier with increased GDDs and earlier snowmelt, and directional selection also favors earlier flowering under these conditions. However, reproduction still declines with warming and early snowmelt, even when flowering is early. Furthermore, the steepness of this reproductive decline increases dramatically with warming conditions, resulting in very little fruit production regardless of flowering time once GDDs exceed approximately 225 degree days or snowmelt occurs before May 15. Even though advancing phenology confers a fitness advantage relative to stasis, these shifts are insufficient to maintain reproduction under warming, highlighting limits to the potential benefits of phenological plasticity under climate change.

Heat stress reveals a fertility debt owing to postcopulatory sexual selection

Climates are changing rapidly, demanding equally rapid adaptation of natural populations. Whether sexual selection can aid such adaptation is under debate; while sexual selection should promote adaptation when individuals with high mating success are also best adapted to their local surroundings, the expression of sexually selected traits can incur costs. Here we asked what the demographic consequences of such costs may be once climates change to become harsher and the strength of natural selection increases. We first adopted a classic life history theory framework, incorporating a trade-off between reproduction and maintenance, and applied it to the male germline to generate formalized predictions for how an evolutionary history of strong postcopulatory sexual selection (sperm competition) may affect male fertility under acute adult heat stress. We then tested these predictions by assessing the thermal sensitivity of fertility (TSF) in replicated lineages of seed beetles maintained for 68 generations under three alternative mating regimes manipulating the opportunity for sexual and natural selection. In line with the theoretical predictions, we find that males evolving under strong sexual selection suffer from increased TSF. Interestingly, females from the regime under strong sexual selection, who experienced relaxed selection on their own reproductive effort, had high fertility in benign settings but suffered increased TSF, like their brothers. This implies that female fertility and TSF evolved through genetic correlation with reproductive traits sexually selected in males. Paternal but not maternal heat stress reduced offspring fertility with no evidence for adaptive transgenerational plasticity among heat-exposed offspring, indicating that the observed effects may compound over generations. Our results suggest that trade-offs between fertility and traits increasing success in postcopulatory sexual selection can be revealed in harsh environments. This can put polyandrous species under immediate risk during extreme heat waves expected under future climate change.

Divergent mechanisms of reduced growth performance in Betula ermanii saplings from high-altitude and low-latitude range edges

The reduced growth performance of individuals from range edges is a common phenomenon in various taxa, and considered to be an evolutionary factor that limits the species' range. However, most studies did not distinguish between two mechanisms that can lead to this reduction: genetic load and adaptive selection to harsh conditions. To address this lack of understanding, we investigated the climatic and genetic factors underlying the growth performance of Betula ermanii saplings transplanted from 11 populations including high-altitude edge and low-latitude edge population. We estimated the climatic position of the populations within the overall B. ermanii's distribution, and the genetic composition and diversity using restriction-site associated DNA sequencing, and measured survival, growth rates and individual size of the saplings. The high-altitude edge population (APW) was located below the 95% significance interval for the mean annual temperature range, but did not show any distinctive genetic characteristics. In contrast, the low-latitude edge population (SHK) exhibited a high level of linkage disequilibrium, low genetic diversity, a distinct genetic composition from the other populations, and a high relatedness coefficient. Both APW and SHK saplings displayed lower survival rates, heights and diameters, while SHK saplings also exhibited lower growth rates than the other populations' saplings. The low heights and diameters of APW saplings was likely the result of adaptive selection to harsh conditions, while the low survival and growth rates of SHK saplings was likely the result of genetic load. Our findings shed light on the mechanisms underlying the reduced growth performance of range-edge populations.

The effect of experimental pollinator decline on pollinator-mediated selection on floral traits

Human-mediated environmental change, by reducing mean fitness, is hypothesized to strengthen selection on traits that mediate interactions among species. For example, human-mediated declines in pollinator populations are hypothesized to reduce mean seed production by increasing the magnitude of pollen limitation and thus strengthen pollinator-mediated selection on floral traits that increase pollinator attraction or pollen transfer efficiency. To test this hypothesis, we measured two female fitness components and six floral traits of Lobelia siphilitica plants exposed to supplemental hand-pollination, ambient open-pollination, or reduced open-pollination treatments. The reduced treatment simulated pollinator decline, while the supplemental treatment was used to estimate pollen limitation and pollinator-mediated selection. We found that plants in the reduced pollination treatment were significantly pollen limited, resulting in pollinator-mediated selection for taller inflorescences and more vibrant petals, both traits that could increase pollinator attraction. This contrasts with plants in the ambient pollination treatment, where reproduction was not pollen limited and there was not significant pollinator-mediated selection on any floral trait. Our results support the hypothesis that human-mediated environmental change can strengthen selection on traits of interacting species and suggest that these traits have the potential to evolve in response to changing environments.

Effects of geo-climate factors on phenotypic variation in cone and seed traits of Pinus yunnanensis

Evaluating variations in reproductive traits and the response of the variations to geo-climate conditions are essential for understanding the persistence, evolution, and range dynamics of plant populations. However, there are insufficient studies to attempt to analyze the importance of geo-climate factors in explaining within- or among-population variation in reproductive traits. We examined 14 traits for 2671 cones of Pinus yunnanensis collected from nine populations in the mountains of Southwest China to characterize the patterns of phenotypic variation of traits and estimate environmental effects on these trait performances and trait variation. We found the contribution of intrapopulation variation to the overall variation was greater than the interpopulation variation and the larger coefficients of variation for the populations lying at the edge of northern and southern regions. Climatic variables are more important than geographical and tree size variables in their relationships to cone and seed traits. Populations in more humid and warmer climate expressed greater cone and seed weight and seed number but lower seed abortion rate, while the larger coefficients of variation in seed weight and number were detected in northern and southern marginal regions with drier or colder climate. Our study illustrates that intraspecific trait variation should be considered when examining plant species response to changing climate and suggests that the high variability rather than high quality of seed traits in the marginal regions with drier or colder climate might foster plant-population persistence in stressful conditions.

Water deficit changes patterns of selection on floral signals and nectar rewards in the common morning glory

Understanding whether and how resource limitation alters phenotypic selection on floral traits is key to predict the evolution of plant-pollinator interactions under climate change. Two important resources predicted to decline with our changing climate are pollinators and water in the form of increased droughts. Most work, however, has studied these selective agents separately and in the case of water deficit, studies are rare. Here, we use the common morning glory (Ipomoea purpurea) to investigate the effects of experimental reduction in pollinator access and water availability on floral signals and nectar rewards and their effects on phenotypic selection on these traits. We conducted a manipulative experiment in a common garden, where we grew plants in three treatments: (1) pollinator restriction, (2) water reduction and (3) unmanipulated control. Plants in pollinator restriction and control treatments were well-watered compared to water deficit. We found that in contrast to pollinator restriction, water deficit had strong effects altering floral signals and nectar rewards but also differed in the direction and strength of selection on these traits compared to control plants. Water deficit increased the opportunity for selection, and selection in this treatment favoured lower nectar volumes and larger floral sizes, which might further alter pollinator visitation. In addition, well-watered plants, both in control and pollinator deficit, showed similar patterns of selection to increase nectar volume suggesting non-pollinator-mediated selection on nectar. Our study shows that floral traits may evolve in response to reduction in water access faster than to declines in pollinators and reinforces that abiotic factors can be important agents of selection for floral traits. Although only few experimental selection studies have manipulated access to biotic and abiotic resources, our results suggest that this approach is key for understanding how pollination systems may evolve under climate change.

Soil water and nutrient availability interactively modify pollinator-mediated directional and correlational selection on floral display

The individual and combined effects of abiotic factors on pollinator-mediated selection on floral traits are not well documented. To examine potential interactive effects of water and nutrient availability on pollinator-mediated selection on three floral display traits of Primula tibetica, we manipulated pollination and nutrient availability in a factorial experiment, conducted at two common garden sites with different soil water content (natural vs addition). We found that both water and nutrient availability affected floral trait expression in P. tibetica and that hand pollination increased seed production most when both nutrient content and water content were high, indicating joint pollen and resource limitation. We documented selection on all floral traits, and pollinators contributed to directional and correlational selection on plant height and number of flowers. Soil water and nutrient availability interactively influenced the strength of both pollinator-mediated directional and correlational selection, with significant selection observed when nutrient or water availability was high, but not when none or both were added. The results suggest that resource limitation constrains the response of P. tibetica to among-individual variation in pollen receipt, that addition of nutrients or water leads to pollinator-mediated selection and that effects of the two abiotic factors are nonadditive.

Simulated pollinator decline has similar effects on seed production of female and hermaphrodite Lobelia siphilitica, but different effects on selection on floral traits

PREMISE

Pollinator decline, by reducing seed production, is predicted to strengthen natural selection on floral traits. However, the effect of pollinator decline on gender dimorphic species (such as gynodioecious species, where plants produce female or hermaphrodite flowers) may differ between the sex morphs: if pollinator decline reduces the seed production of females more than hermaphrodites, then it should also have a larger effect on selection on floral traits in females than in hermaphrodites.

METHODS

To simulate pollinator decline, we experimentally reduced pollinator access to female and hermaphrodite Lobelia siphilitica plants. We compared the seed production of plants in the reduced pollination treatment to plants that were exposed to ambient pollination conditions. Within each treatment, we also measured directional selection on four floral traits of females and hermaphrodites.

RESULTS

Experimentally reducing pollination decreased seed production of both females and hermaphrodites by ~21%. Reducing pollination also strengthened selection on floral traits, but this effect was not larger in females than in hermaphrodites. Instead, reducing pollination intensified selection for taller inflorescences in hermaphrodites, but did not intensify selection on any floral trait in females.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that pollinator decline will not have a larger effect on either seed production or selection on floral traits of female plants. As such, any effect of pollinator decline on seed production may be similar for gender dimorphic and monomorphic species. However, the potential for floral traits of females (and thus of gender dimorphic species) to evolve in response to pollinator decline may be limited.

Parasitism shapes selection by drastically reducing host fitness and increasing host fitness variation

Determining the effects of parasites on host reproduction is key to understanding how parasites affect the underpinnings of selection on hosts. Although infection is expected to be costly, reducing mean fitness, infection could also increase variation in fitness costs among hosts, both of which determine the potential for selection on hosts. To test these ideas, we used a phylogenetically informed meta-analysis of 118 studies to examine how changes in the mean and variance in the outcome of reproduction differed between parasitized and non-parasitized hosts. We found that parasites had severe negative effects on mean fitness, with parasitized hosts suffering reductions in fecundity, viability and mating success. Parasite infection also increased variance in reproduction, particularly fecundity and offspring viability. Surprisingly, parasites had similar effects on viability when either the male or female was parasitized. These results not only provide the first synthetic, comparative, and quantitative summary of the strong deleterious effects of parasites on host reproductive fitness, but also reveal a consistent role for parasites in shaping the opportunity for selection.

Host-Associated Rhizobial Fitness: Dependence on Nitrogen, Density, Community Complexity, and Legume Genotype

The environmental context of the nitrogen-fixing mutualism between leguminous plants and rhizobial bacteria varies over space and time. Variation in resource availability, population density, and composition likely affect the ecology and evolution of rhizobia and their symbiotic interactions with hosts. We examined how host genotype, nitrogen addition, rhizobial density, and community complexity affected selection on 68 rhizobial strains in the Sinorhizobium meliloti–Medicago truncatula mutualism. As expected, host genotype had a substantial effect on the size, number, and strain composition of root nodules (the symbiotic organ). The understudied environmental variable of rhizobial density had a stronger effect on nodule strain frequency than the addition of low nitrogen levels. Higher inoculum density resulted in a nodule community that was less diverse and more beneficial but only in the context of the more selective host genotype. Higher density resulted in more diverse and less beneficial nodule communities with the less selective host. Density effects on strain composition deserve additional scrutiny as they can create feedback between ecological and evolutionary processes. Finally, we found that relative strain rankings were stable across increasing community complexity (2, 3, 8, or 68 strains). This unexpected result suggests that higher-order interactions between strains are rare in the context of nodule formation and development. Our work highlights the importance of examining mechanisms of density-dependent strain fitness and developing theoretical predictions that incorporate density dependence. Furthermore, our results have translational relevance for overcoming establishment barriers in bioinoculants and motivating breeding programs that maintain beneficial plant-microbe interactions across diverse agroecological contexts.

IMPORTANCE Legume crops establish beneficial associations with rhizobial bacteria that perform biological nitrogen fixation, providing nitrogen to plants without the economic and greenhouse gas emission costs of chemical nitrogen inputs. Here, we examine the influence of three environmental factors that vary in agricultural fields on strain relative fitness in nodules. In addition to manipulating nitrogen, we also use two biotic variables that have rarely been examined: the rhizobial community's density and complexity. Taken together, our results suggest that (i) breeding legume varieties that select beneficial strains despite environmental variation is possible, (ii) changes in rhizobial population densities that occur routinely in agricultural fields could drive evolutionary changes in rhizobial populations, and (iii) the lack of higher-order interactions between strains will allow the high-throughput assessments of rhizobia winners and losers during plant interactions.

Multivariate selection mediated by aridity predicts divergence of drought-resistant traits along natural aridity gradients of an invasive weed

Geographical variation in the environment underpins selection for local adaptation and evolutionary divergence among populations. Because many environmental conditions vary across species' ranges, identifying the specific environmental variables underlying local adaptation is profoundly challenging. We tested whether natural selection mediated by aridity predicts clinal divergence among invasive populations of capeweed (Arctotheca calendula) that established and spread across southern Australia during the last two centuries. Using common garden experiments with two environmental treatments (wet and dry) that mimic aridity conditions across capeweed's invasive range, we estimated clinal divergence and effects of aridity on fitness and multivariate phenotypic selection in populations sampled along aridity gradients in Australia. We show that: (1) capeweed populations have relatively high fitness in aridity environments similar to their sampling locations; (2) the magnitude and direction of selection strongly differs between wet and dry treatments, with drought stress increasing the strength of selection; and (3) differences in directional selection between wet and dry treatments predict patterns of clinal divergence across the aridity gradient, particularly for traits affecting biomass, flowering phenology and putative antioxidant expression. Our results suggest that aridity-mediated selection contributes to trait diversification among invasive capeweed populations, possibly facilitating the expansion of capeweed across southern Australia.

Natural selection fluctuates at an extremely fine spatial scale inside a wild population of snapdragon plants

Spatial variation in natural selection is expected to shape phenotypic variation of wild populations and drive their evolution. Although evidence of phenotypic divergence across populations experiencing different selection regimes is abundant, investigations of intrapopulation variation in selection pressures remain rare. Fine-grained spatial environmental heterogeneity can be expected to influence selective forces within a wild population and thereby alter its fitness function by producing multiple fitness optima at a fine spatial scale. Here, we tested this hypothesis in a wild population of snapdragon plants living on an extremely small island in southern France (about 7500 m² ). We estimated the spline-based fitness function linking individuals' fitness and five morphological traits in interaction with three spatially variable ecological drivers. We found that selection acting on several traits varied both in magnitude and direction in response to environmental variables at the scale of a meter. Our findings illustrate how different phenotypes can be selected at different locations within a population in response to environmental variation. Investigating spatial variation in selection within a population, in association with ecological conditions, represents an opportunity to identify putative ecological drivers of selection in the wild.

The function of floral traits and phenotypic selection in Aconitum gymnandrum (Ranunculaceae)

Floral evolution in angiosperms is thought to be driven by pollinator-mediated selection. Understanding flower integration and adaptation requires resolving the additive and nonadditive contributions of floral pollinator attraction and pollination efficiency traits to fitness components. In this study, a flower manipulation experiment with a factorial design was used to study the adaptive significance of galea height (a putative attraction trait) and entrance width (a putative efficiency trait) in Aconitum gymnandrum Maxim. flowers. Simultaneously, phenotypic selection analysis was conducted to examine selection by pollinators on galea height, entrance width, nectar production and plant height. Increased galea height increased the pollinator visitation rate, which confirmed its attractiveness function. Increasing floral entrance width by spreading the lower sepals increased the seed number per fruit without affecting pollinator visitation. This suggests a pollination efficiency role for the entrance width. The phenotypic selection analysis, however, did not provide evidence of pollinator-mediated selection for either of these traist, but it did for plant height. According to the manipulation treatment and correlational selection results, the combined variation in galea height and entrance width of A. gymnandrum flowers did not have nonadditive effects on female reproductive success. This study demonstrated the adaptive value of A. gymnandrum flowers through manipulation of an attractiveness trait and an efficiency trait. However, neither trait was associated with pollinator-mediated selection. A combination of manipulating traits and determining current phenotypic selection could help to elucidate the mechanism of selection on floral traits involved in different functions and flower integration.

Environmental effects on the genetic architecture of fitness components in a simultaneous hermaphrodite

Understanding how environmental change affects genetic variances and covariances of reproductive traits is key to formulate firm predictions on evolutionary responses. This is particularly true for sex-specific variance in reproductive success, which has been argued to affect how populations can adapt to environmental change. Our current knowledge on the impact of environmental stress on sex-specific genetic architecture of fitness components is still limited and restricted to separate-sexed organisms. However, hermaphroditism is widespread across animals and may entail interesting peculiarities with respect to genetic constraints imposed on the evolution of male and female reproduction. We explored how food restriction affects the genetic variance-covariance (G) matrix of body size and reproductive success of the simultaneously hermaphroditic freshwater snail Physa acuta. Our results provide strong evidence that the imposed environmental stress elevated the opportunity for selection in both sex functions. However, the G-matrix remained largely stable across the tested food treatments. Importantly, our results provide no support for cross-sex genetic correlations suggesting no strong evolutionary coupling of male and female reproductive traits. We discuss potential implications for the adaptation to changing environments and highlight the need for more quantitative genetic studies on male and female fitness components in simultaneous hermaphrodites.

Reproductive trade-offs and phenotypic selection change with body condition, but not with predation regime, across island lizard populations

Trade-offs between reproduction and survival are central to life-history theory and are expected to shape patterns of phenotypic selection, but the ecological factors structuring these trade-offs and resultant patterns of selection are generally unknown. We manipulated reproductive investment and predation regime in island populations of brown anole lizards (Anolis sagrei) to test (1) whether previously documented increases in the survival of experimentally non-reproductive females (OVX = ovariectomy) reflect the greater susceptibility of reproductive females (SHAM = control) to predation and (2) whether phenotypic selection differs as a function of reproductive investment and predation regime. OVX females exceeded SHAM controls in growth, mass gain and body condition, indicating pronounced energetic costs of reproduction. Although mortality was greatest in the presence of bird and snake predators, differences in survival between OVX and SHAM were unrelated to predation regime, as were patterns of natural selection on body size. Instead, we found that body condition at the conclusion of the experiment differed significantly across populations, suggesting that local environments varied in their ability to support mass gain and positive energy balance. As mean body condition improved across populations, the magnitude of the survival cost of reproduction increased, linear selection on body size shifted from positive to negative, and quadratic selection shifted from stabilizing to weakly disruptive. Our results suggest that reproductive trade-offs and patterns of phenotypic selection in female brown anoles are more sensitive to inferred variation in environmental quality than to experimentally induced variation in predation.

Geographic patterns of seed trait variation in an invasive species: how much can close populations differ?

Seeds play a major role in plant species persistence and expansion, and therefore they are essential when modeling species dynamics. However, homogeneity in seed traits is generally assumed, underestimating intraspecific trait variability across the geographic space, which might bias species success models. The aim of this study was to evaluate the existence and consequences of interpopulation variability in seed traits of the invasive species Carpobrotus edulis at different geographical scales. We measured seed production, morphology, vigour and longevity of nine populations of C. edulis along the Catalan coast (NE Spain) from three differentiated zones with a human presence gradient. Geographic distances between populations were contrasted against individual and multivariate trait distances to explore trait variation along the territory, evaluating the role of bioclimatic variables and human density of the different zones. The analysis revealed high interpopulation variability that was not explained by geographic distance, as regardless of the little distance between some populations (< 0.5 km), significant differences were found in several seed traits. Seed production, germination, and persistence traits showed the strongest spatial variability up to 6000% of percent trait variability between populations, leading to differentiated C. edulis soil seed bank dynamics at small distances, which may demand differentiated strategies for a cost-effective species management. Seed trait variability was influenced by human density but also bioclimatic conditions, suggesting a potential impact of increased anthropogenic pressure and climate shifts. Geographic interpopulation trait variation should be included in ecological models and will be important for assessing species responses to environmental heterogeneity and change.

Selection on heritable social network positions is context-dependent in Drosophila melanogaster

Social group structure is highly variable and can be important for nearly every aspect of behavior and its fitness consequences. Group structure can be modeled using social network analysis, but we know little about the evolutionary factors shaping and maintaining variation in how individuals are embedded within their networks (i.e., network position). While network position is a pervasive target of selection, it remains unclear whether network position is heritable and can respond to selection. Furthermore, it is unclear how environmental factors interact with genotypic effects on network positions, or how environmental factors shape selection on heritable network structure. Here we show multiple measures of social network position are heritable, using replicate genotypes and replicate social groups of Drosophila melanogaster flies. Our results indicate genotypic differences in network position are largely robust to changes in the environment flies experience, though some measures of network position do vary across environments. We also show selection on multiple network position metrics depends on the environmental context they are expressed in, laying the groundwork for better understanding how spatio-temporal variation in selection contributes to the evolution of variable social group structure.

Adaptation across geographic ranges is consistent with strong selection in marginal climates and legacies of range expansion

Every species experiences limits to its geographic distribution. Some evolutionary models predict that populations at range edges are less well adapted to their local environments due to drift, expansion load, or swamping gene flow from the range interior. Alternatively, populations near range edges might be uniquely adapted to marginal environments. In this study, we use a database of transplant studies that quantify performance at broad geographic scales to test how local adaptation, site quality, and population quality change from spatial and climatic range centers toward edges. We find that populations from poleward edges perform relatively poorly, both on average across all sites (15% lower population quality) and when compared to other populations at home (31% relative fitness disadvantage), consistent with these populations harboring high genetic load. Populations from equatorial edges also perform poorly on average (18% lower population quality) but, in contrast, outperform foreign populations (16% relative fitness advantage), suggesting that populations from equatorial edges have strongly adapted to unique environments. Finally, we find that populations from sites that are thermally extreme relative to the species' niche demonstrate strong local adaptation, regardless of their geographic position. Our findings indicate that both nonadaptive processes and adaptive evolution contribute to variation in adaptation across species' ranges.

Preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses in ecology and evolutionary biology: a PRISMA extension

Since the early 1990s, ecologists and evolutionary biologists have aggregated primary research using meta-analytic methods to understand ecological and evolutionary phenomena. Meta-analyses can resolve long-standing disputes, dispel spurious claims, and generate new research questions. At their worst, however, meta-analysis publications are wolves in sheep's clothing: subjective with biased conclusions, hidden under coats of objective authority. Conclusions can be rendered unreliable by inappropriate statistical methods, problems with the methods used to select primary research, or problems within the primary research itself. Because of these risks, meta-analyses are increasingly conducted as part of systematic reviews, which use structured, transparent, and reproducible methods to collate and summarise evidence. For readers to determine whether the conclusions from a systematic review or meta-analysis should be trusted - and to be able to build upon the review - authors need to report what they did, why they did it, and what they found. Complete, transparent, and reproducible reporting is measured by 'reporting quality'. To assess perceptions and standards of reporting quality of systematic reviews and meta-analyses published in ecology and evolutionary biology, we surveyed 208 researchers with relevant experience (as authors, reviewers, or editors), and conducted detailed evaluations of 102 systematic review and meta-analysis papers published between 2010 and 2019. Reporting quality was far below optimal and approximately normally distributed. Measured reporting quality was lower than what the community perceived, particularly for the systematic review methods required to measure trustworthiness. The minority of assessed papers that referenced a guideline (~16%) showed substantially higher reporting quality than average, and surveyed researchers showed interest in using a reporting guideline to improve reporting quality. The leading guideline for improving reporting quality of systematic reviews is the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement. Here we unveil an extension of PRISMA to serve the meta-analysis community in ecology and evolutionary biology: PRISMA-EcoEvo (version 1.0). PRISMA-EcoEvo is a checklist of 27 main items that, when applicable, should be reported in systematic review and meta-analysis publications summarising primary research in ecology and evolutionary biology. In this explanation and elaboration document, we provide guidance for authors, reviewers, and editors, with explanations for each item on the checklist, including supplementary examples from published papers. Authors can consult this PRISMA-EcoEvo guideline both in the planning and writing stages of a systematic review and meta-analysis, to increase reporting quality of submitted manuscripts. Reviewers and editors can use the checklist to assess reporting quality in the manuscripts they review. Overall, PRISMA-EcoEvo is a resource for the ecology and evolutionary biology community to facilitate transparent and comprehensively reported systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

Nothing in Evolution Makes Sense Except in the Light of Biology

A key question in biology is the predictability of the evolutionary process. If we can correctly predict the outcome of evolution, we may be better equipped to anticipate and manage species' adaptation to climate change, habitat loss, invasive species, or emerging infectious diseases, as well as improve our basic understanding of the history of life on Earth. In the present article, we ask the questions when, why, and if the outcome of future evolution is predictable. We first define predictable and then discuss two conflicting views: that evolution is inherently unpredictable and that evolution is predictable given the ability to collect the right data. We identify factors that generate unpredictability, the data that might be required to make predictions at some level of precision or at a specific timescale, and the intellectual and translational value of understanding when prediction is or is not possible.

Physiological adaptation to cities as a proxy to forecast global-scale responses to climate change

Cities are emerging as a new venue to overcome the challenges of obtaining data on compensatory responses to climatic warming through phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary change. In this Review, we highlight how cities can be used to explore physiological trait responses to experimental warming, and also how cities can be used as human-made space-for-time substitutions. We assessed the current literature and found evidence for significant plasticity and evolution in thermal tolerance trait responses to urban heat islands. For those studies that reported both plastic and evolved components of thermal tolerance, we found evidence that both mechanisms contributed to phenotypic shifts in thermal tolerance, rather than plastic responses precluding or limiting evolved responses. Interestingly though, for a broader range of studies, we found that the magnitude of evolved shifts in thermal tolerance was not significantly different from the magnitude of shift in those studies that only reported phenotypic results, which could be a product of evolution, plasticity, or both. Regardless, the magnitude of shifts in urban thermal tolerance phenotypes was comparable to more traditional space-for-time substitutions across latitudinal and altitudinal clines in environmental temperature. We conclude by considering how urban-derived estimates of plasticity and evolution of thermal tolerance traits can be used to improve forecasting methods, including macrophysiological models and species distribution modelling approaches. Finally, we consider areas for further exploration including sub-lethal performance traits and thermal performance curves, assessing the adaptive nature of trait shifts, and taking full advantage of the environmental thermal variation that cities generate.

Towards the flower economics spectrum

Understanding how floral traits affect reproduction is key for understanding genetic diversity, speciation, and trait evolution in the face of global changes and pollinator decline. However, there has not yet been a unified framework to characterize the major trade-offs and axes of floral trait variation. Here, we propose the development of a floral economics spectrum (FES) that incorporates the multiple pathways by which floral traits can be shaped by multiple agents of selection acting on multiple flower functions. For example, while pollinator-mediated selection has been considered the primary factor affecting flower evolution, selection by nonpollinator agents can reinforce or oppose pollinator selection, and, therefore, affect floral trait variation. In addition to pollinators, the FES should consider nonpollinator biotic agents and floral physiological costs, broadening the drivers of floral traits beyond pollinators. We discuss how coordinated evolution and trade-offs among floral traits and between floral and vegetative traits may influence the distribution of floral traits across biomes and lineages, thereby influencing organismal evolution and community assembly.

Using ecological context to interpret spatiotemporal variation in natural selection

Spatiotemporal variation in natural selection is expected, but difficult to estimate. Pollinator-mediated selection on floral traits provides a good system for understanding and linking variation in selection to differences in ecological context. We studied pollinator-mediated selection in five populations of Dalechampia scandens (Euphorbiaceae) in Costa Rica and Mexico. Using a nonlinear path-analytical approach, we assessed several functional components of selection, and linked variation in pollinator-mediated selection across time and space to variation in pollinator assemblages. After correcting for estimation error, we detected moderate variation in net selection on two out of four blossom traits. Both the opportunity for selection and the mean strength of selection decreased with increasing reliability of cross-pollination. Selection for pollinator attraction was consistently positive and stronger on advertisement than reward traits. Selection on traits affecting pollen transfer from the pollinator to the stigmas was strong only when cross-pollination was unreliable and there was a mismatch between pollinator and blossom size. These results illustrate how consideration of trait function and ecological context can facilitate both the detection and the causal understanding of spatiotemporal variation in natural selection.

What Do We Really Know About Adaptation at Range Edges?

Recent theory and empirical evidence have provided new insights regarding how evolutionary forces interact to shape adaptation at stable and transient range margins. Predictions regarding trait divergence at leading edges are frequently supported. However, declines in fitness at and beyond edges show that trait divergence has sometimes been insufficient to maintain high fitness, so identifying constraints to adaptation at range edges remains a key challenge. Indirect evidence suggests that range expansion may be limited by adaptive genetic variation, but direct estimates of genetic constraints at and beyond range edges are still scarce. Sequence data suggest increased genetic load in edge populations in several systems, but its causes and fitness consequences are usually poorly understood. The balance between maladaptive and positive effects of gene flow on fitness at range edges deserves further study. It is becoming increasingly clear that characterizations about degree of adaptation based solely on geographical peripherality are unsupported.

Multivariate phenotypic divergence along an urbanization gradient

Evidence suggests that natural populations can evolve to better tolerate the novel environmental conditions associated with urban areas. Studies of adaptive divergence in urban areas often examine one or a few traits at a time from populations residing only at the most extreme urban and nonurban habitats. Thus, whether urbanization drives divergence in many traits simultaneously in a manner that varies with the degree of urbanization remains unclear. To address this gap, we generated seed families of white clover (Trifolium repens) collected from 27 populations along an urbanization gradient in Toronto, Canada, grew them in a common garden, and measured 14 phenotypic traits. Families from urban sites had evolved later phenology and germination, larger flowers, thinner stolons, reduced cyanogenesis, greater biomass and greater seed set. Pollinator observations revealed near-complete turnover of pollinator morphological groups along the urbanization gradient, which may explain some of the observed divergences in floral traits and phenology. Our results suggest that adaptation to urban environments involves multiple traits.

Evolution in novel environments: Do restored prairie populations experience strong selection?

When populations colonize new habitats, they are likely to experience novel environmental conditions, and as a consequence may experience strong selection. While selection and the resulting evolutionary responses may have important implications for establishment success in colonizing populations, few studies have estimated selection in such scenarios. Here we examined evidence of selection in recently established plant populations in two prairie restorations in close proximity (<15 km apart) using two approaches: (1) we tested for evidence of past selection on a suite of traits in two Chamaecrista fasciculata populations by comparing the restored populations to each other and their shared source population in common gardens to quantify evolutionary responses and (2) we measured selection in the field. We found evidence of past selection on flowering time, specific leaf area, and root nodule production in one of the populations, but detected contemporary selection on only one trait (plant height). Our findings demonstrate that while selection can occur in colonizing populations, resulting in significant trait differences between restored populations in fewer than six generations, evolutionary responses differ across even nearby populations sown with the same source population. Because contemporary measures of selection differed from evolutionary responses to past selection, our findings also suggest that selection likely differs over the early stages of succession that characterize young prairies.

Predictors of colony extinction vary by habitat type in social spiders

Many animal societies are susceptible to mass mortality events and collapse. Elucidating how environmental pressures determine patterns of collapse is important for understanding how such societies function and evolve. Using the social spider Stegodyphus dumicola, we investigated the environmental drivers of colony extinction along two precipitation gradients across southern Africa, using the Namib and Kalahari deserts versus wetter savanna habitats to the north and east. We deployed experimental colonies (n = 242) along two ~ 800-km transects and returned to assess colony success in the field after 2 months. Specifically, we noted colony extinction events after the 2-month duration and collected environmental data on the correlates of those extinction events (e.g., evidence of ant attacks, no. of prey captured). We found that colony extinction events at desert sites were more frequently associated with attacks by predatory ants as compared with savanna sites, while colony extinctions in wetter savannas sites were more tightly associated with fungal outbreaks. Our findings support the hypothesis that environments vary in the selection pressures that they impose on social organisms, which may explain why different social phenotypes are often favored in each habitat.

Predators weaken prey intraspecific competition through phenotypic selection

Predators have a key role shaping competitor dynamics in food webs. Perhaps the most obvious way this occurs is when predators reduce competitor densities. However, consumption could also generate phenotypic selection on prey that determines the strength of competition, thus coupling consumptive and trait-based effects of predators. In a mesocosm experiment simulating fish predation on damselflies, we found that selection against high damselfly activity rates - a phenotype mediating predation and competition - weakened the strength of density dependence in damselfly growth rates. A field experiment corroborated this finding and showed that increasing damselfly densities in lakes with high fish densities had limited effects on damselfly growth rates but generated a precipitous growth rate decline where fish densities were lower - a pattern expected because of spatial variation in selection imposed by predation. These results suggest that accounting for both consumption and selection is necessary to determine how predators regulate prey competitive interactions.

Where is the optimum? Predicting the variation of selection along climatic gradients and the adaptive value of plasticity. A case study on tree phenology

Many theoretical models predict when genetic evolution and phenotypic plasticity allow adaptation to changing environmental conditions. These models generally assume stabilizing selection around some optimal phenotype. We however often ignore how optimal phenotypes change with the environment, which limit our understanding of the adaptive value of phenotypic plasticity. Here, we propose an approach based on our knowledge of the causal relationships between climate, adaptive traits, and fitness to further these questions. This approach relies on a sensitivity analysis of the process‐based model phenofit, which mathematically formalizes these causal relationships, to predict fitness landscapes and optimal budburst dates along elevation gradients in three major European tree species. Variation in the overall shape of the fitness landscape and resulting directional selection gradients were found to be mainly driven by temperature variation. The optimal budburst date was delayed with elevation, while the range of dates allowing high fitness narrowed and the maximal fitness at the optimum decreased. We also found that the plasticity of the budburst date should allow tracking the spatial variation in the optimal date, but with variable mismatch depending on the species, ranging from negligible mismatch in fir, moderate in beech, to large in oak. Phenotypic plasticity would therefore be more adaptive in fir and beech than in oak. In all species, we predicted stronger directional selection for earlier budburst date at higher elevation. The weak selection on budburst date in fir should result in the evolution of negligible genetic divergence, while beech and oak would evolve counter‐gradient variation, where genetic and environmental effects are in opposite directions. Our study suggests that theoretical models should consider how whole fitness landscapes change with the environment. The approach introduced here has the potential to be developed for other traits and species to explore how populations will adapt to climate change.

Natural variation on whole-plant form in the wild is influenced by multivariate soil nutrient characteristics: natural selection acts on root traits

PREMISE

In the complex soil nutrient environments of wild populations of annual plants, in general, low nutrient availability restricts growth and alters root-shoot relationships. However, our knowledge of natural selection on roots in field settings is limited. We sought to determine whether selection acts directly on root traits and to identify which components of the soil environment were potential agents of selection.

METHODS

We studied wild native populations of Arabidopsis thaliana across 4 years, measuring aboveground and belowground traits and analyzing soil nutrients. Using multivariate methods, we examined patterns of natural selection and identified soil attributes that contributed to whole-plant form. In a common garden experiment at two field sites with contrasting soil texture, we examined patterns of selection on root and shoot traits.

RESULTS

In wild populations, we uncovered selection for above- and belowground size and architectural traits. We detected variation through time and identified soil components that influenced fruit production. In the garden experiment, we detected a distinct positive selection for total root length at the site with greater water-holding capacity and negative selection for measures of root architecture at the field site with reduced nutrient availability and water holding capacity.

CONCLUSIONS

Patterns of natural selection on belowground traits varied through time, across field sites and experimental gardens. Simultaneous investigations of above- and belowground traits reveal trait functional relationships on which natural selection can act, highlighting the influence of edaphic features on evolutionary processes in wild annual plant populations.

Context Dependence of Local Adaptation to Abiotic and Biotic Environments: A Quantitative and Qualitative Synthesis

Understanding how spatially variable selection shapes adaptation is an area of long-standing interest in evolutionary ecology. Recent meta-analyses have quantified the extent of local adaptation, but the relative importance of abiotic and biotic factors in driving population divergence remains poorly understood. To address this gap, we combined a quantitative meta-analysis and a qualitative metasynthesis to (1) quantify the magnitude of local adaptation to abiotic and biotic factors and (2) characterize major themes that influence the motivation and design of experiments that seek to test for local adaptation. Using local-foreign contrasts as a metric of local adaptation (or maladaptation), we found that local adaptation was greater in the presence than in the absence of a biotic interactor, especially for plants. We also found that biotic environments had stronger effects on fitness than abiotic environments when ignoring whether those environments were local versus foreign. Finally, biotic effects were stronger at low latitudes, and abiotic effects were stronger at high latitudes. Our qualitative analysis revealed that the lens through which local adaptation has been examined differs for abiotic and biotic factors. It also revealed biases in the design and implementation of experiments that make quantitative results challenging to interpret and provided directions for future research.

Biotic and anthropogenic forces rival climatic/abiotic factors in determining global plant population growth and fitness

Knowing which of multiple environmental factors (climate, other species, humans, etc.) most strongly affect wild plants and animals could focus our attention on the future environmental changes most likely to influence biodiversity. However, we find that abiotic, biotic, and human influences on plant populations are of similar strengths, for different kinds of plants and in multiple locations and environments. The effects of these factors on plant evolution are also likely to be similar. Thus, there is unlikely to be a shortcut to considering all of these factors when predicting the future ecological and evolutionary responses of species and of biodiversity to environmental changes.

Multiple, simultaneous environmental changes, in climatic/abiotic factors, interacting species, and direct human influences, are impacting natural populations and thus biodiversity, ecosystem services, and evolutionary trajectories. Determining whether the magnitudes of the population impacts of abiotic, biotic, and anthropogenic drivers differ, accounting for their direct effects and effects mediated through other drivers, would allow us to better predict population fates and design mitigation strategies. We compiled 644 paired values of the population growth rate (λ) from high and low levels of an identified driver from demographic studies of terrestrial plants. Among abiotic drivers, natural disturbance (not climate), and among biotic drivers, interactions with neighboring plants had the strongest effects on λ. However, when drivers were combined into the 3 main types, their average effects on λ did not differ. For the subset of studies that measured both the average and variability of the driver, λ was marginally more sensitive to 1 SD of change in abiotic drivers relative to biotic drivers, but sensitivity to biotic drivers was still substantial. Similar impact magnitudes for abiotic/biotic/anthropogenic drivers hold for plants of different growth forms, for different latitudinal zones, and for biomes characterized by harsher or milder abiotic conditions, suggesting that all 3 drivers have equivalent impacts across a variety of contexts. Thus, the best available information about the integrated effects of drivers on all demographic rates provides no justification for ignoring drivers of any of these 3 types when projecting ecological and evolutionary responses of populations and of biodiversity to environmental changes.

Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient

Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species.

It is unclear whether species’ responses to climate change tend to be adaptive or sufficient to keep up with climate change. Here, Radchuk et al. perform a meta-analysis showing that in birds phenology has advanced adaptively in some species, though not all the way to the new optima.

Evolutionary ecology of nectar

Background

Floral nectar is an important determinant of plant-pollinator interactions and an integral component of pollination syndromes, suggesting it is under pollinator-mediated selection. However, compared to floral display traits, we know little about the evolutionary ecology of nectar. Combining a literature review with a meta-analysis approach, we summarize the evidence for heritable variation in nectar traits and link this variation to pollinator response and plant fitness. We further review associations between nectar traits and floral signals and discuss them in the context of honest signalling and targets of selection.

Scope

Although nectar is strongly influenced by environmental factors, heritable variation in nectar production rate has been documented in several populations (mean h2 = 0.31). Almost nothing is known about heritability of other nectar traits, such as sugar and amino acid concentrations. Only a handful of studies have quantified selection on nectar traits, and few find statistically significant selection. Pollinator responses to nectar traits indicate they may drive selection, but studies tying pollinator preferences to plant fitness are lacking. So far, only one study conclusively identified pollinators as selective agents on a nectar trait, and the role of microbes, herbivores, nectar robbers and abiotic factors in nectar evolution is largely hypothetical. Finally, there is a trend for positive correlations among floral cues and nectar traits, indicating honest signalling of rewards.

Conclusions

Important progress can be made by studies that quantify current selection on nectar in natural populations, as well as experimental approaches that identify the target traits and selective agents involved. Signal-reward associations suggest that correlational selection may shape evolution of nectar traits, and studies exploring these more complex forms of natural selection are needed. Many questions about nectar evolution remain unanswered, making this a field ripe for future research.

A meta-analysis of the agents of selection on floral traits

Floral traits are hypothesized to evolve primarily in response to selection by pollinators. However, selection can also be mediated by other environmental factors. To understand the relative importance of pollinator-mediated selection and its variation among trait and pollinator types, we analyzed directional selection gradients on floral traits from experiments that manipulated the environment to identify agents of selection. Pollinator-mediated selection was stronger than selection by other biotic factors (e.g., herbivores), but similar in strength to selection by abiotic factors (e.g., soil water), providing partial support for the hypothesis that floral traits evolve primarily in response to pollinators. Pollinator-mediated selection was stronger on pollination efficiency traits than on other trait types, as expected if efficiency traits affect fitness via interactions with pollinators, but other trait types also affect fitness via other environmental factors. In addition to varying among trait types, pollinator-mediated selection varied among pollinator taxa: selection was stronger when bees, long-tongued flies, or birds were the primary visitors than when the primary visitors were Lepidoptera or multiple animal taxa. Finally, reducing pollinator access to flowers had a relatively small effect on selection on floral traits, suggesting that anthropogenic declines in pollinator populations would initially have modest effects on floral evolution.

Human influences on the strength of phenotypic selection

Human activities are driving rapid phenotypic change in many species, with harvesting considered to be a particularly potent evolutionary force. We hypothesized that faster evolutionary change in human-disturbed populations could be caused by a strengthening of phenotypic selection, for example, if human disturbances trigger maladaptation and/or increase the opportunity for selection. We tested this hypothesis by synthesizing 1,366 phenotypic selection coefficients from 37 species exposed to various anthropogenic disturbances, including harvest. We used a paired design that only included studies measuring selection on the same traits in both human-disturbed and control (not obviously human-disturbed "natural") populations. Surprisingly, this meta-analysis did not reveal stronger selection in human-disturbed environments; in fact, we even found some evidence that human disturbances might slightly reduce selection strength. The only clear exceptions were two fisheries showing very strong harvest selection. On closer inspection, we discovered that many disturbances weakened selection by increasing absolute fitness and by decreasing the opportunity for selection-thus explaining what initially seemed a counterintuitive result. We discuss how human disturbances can sometimes weaken rather than strengthen selection, and why measuring the total effect of disturbances on selection is exceedingly difficult. Despite these challenges, documenting human influences on selection can reveal disturbances with particularly strong effects (e.g., fishing), and thus better inform the management of populations exposed to these disturbances.

Grazers affect selection on inflorescence height both directly and indirectly and effects change over time

Selection mediated by one biotic agent will often be modified by the presence of other biotic interactions, and the importance of such indirect effects might change over time. We conducted an 11-yr field experiment to test the prediction that large grazers affect selection on floral display of the dimorphic herb Primula farinosa not only directly through differential grazing damage, but also indirectly by affecting vegetation height and thereby selection mediated by pollinators and seed predators. Exclusion of large grazers increased vegetation height and the strength of pollinator-mediated selection for tall inflorescences and seed-predator-mediated selection for short inflorescences. The direct effect of grazers on selection resulting from differential grazing damage to the two scape morphs showed no temporal trend. By contrast, the increase in vegetation height in exclosures over time was associated with an increase in selection mediated by pollinators and seed predators. In the early years of the experiment, the indirect effects of grazers on selection mediated by pollinators and seed predators were weak, whereas at the end of the experiment, the indirect effects were of similar magnitude as the direct effect due to differential grazing damage. The results demonstrate that the indirect effects of a selective agent can be as strong as its direct effects, and that the relative importance of direct vs. indirect effects on selection can change over time. A full understanding of the ecological processes governing variation in selection thus requires that both direct and indirect effects of biotic interactions are assessed.

Ecological sorting and character displacement contribute to the structure of communities of Clarkia species

Despite long-standing interest in the evolutionary ecology of plants that share pollinators, few studies have explored how these interactions may affect communities during both community assembly (ecological sorting) and through ongoing, in situ evolution (character displacement), and how the effects of these interactions may change with community context. To determine if communities display patterns consistent with ecological sorting, we assessed the frequency of co-occurrence of four species of Clarkia in the southern Sierra foothills (Kern County, CA, USA). To investigate potential character displacement, we measured pollination-related traits on plants grown in a greenhouse common garden from seed collected in communities with one, two or four Clarkia species. Among the four species of Clarkia in this region, the two species that are often found in multi-species communities also co-occur with one another more frequently than expected under a null model. This pattern is consistent with ecological sorting, although further investigation is needed to determine the role of pollinators in shaping community assembly. Patterns of trait variation in a common garden suggest that these two species have diverged in floral traits and converged in flowering time where they co-occur, which is consistent with character displacement. Trait variation across community types also suggests that the process and outcome of character displacement may vary with community context. Because community context appears to affect both the direction and magnitude of character displacement, change in more species-rich communities may not be predictable from patterns of change in simpler communities.

Trade-offs between larval survival and adult ornament development depend on predator regime in a territorial dragonfly

Trade-offs between juvenile survival and the development of sexually selected traits can cause ontogenetic conflict between life stages that constrains adaptive evolution. However, the potential for ecological interactions to alter the presence or strength of these trade-offs remains largely unexplored. Antagonistic selection over the accumulation and storage of resources could be one common cause of environment-specific trade-offs between life stages: higher condition may simultaneously enhance adult ornament development and increase juvenile vulnerability to predators. We tested this hypothesis in an ornamented dragonfly (Pachydiplax longipennis). Higher larval body condition indeed enhanced the initial development of its intrasexually selected wing coloration, but was opposed by viability selection in the presence of large aeshnid predators. In contrast, viability selection did not oppose larval body condition in pools when aeshnids were absent, and was not affected when we manipulated cannibalism risk. Trade-offs between larval survival and ornament development, mediated through the conflicting effects of body condition, therefore occurred only under high predation risk. We additionally characterized how body condition influences several traits associated with predator avoidance. Although body condition did not affect burst distance, it did increase larval abdomen size, potentially making larvae easier targets for aeshnid predators. As high body condition similarly increases vulnerability to predators in many other animals, predator-mediated costs of juvenile resource accumulation could be a common, environment-specific limitation on the elaboration of sexually selected traits.

Fluctuating selection and its (elusive) evolutionary consequences in a wild rodent population

Temporal fluctuations in the strength and direction of selection are often proposed as a mechanism that slows down evolution, both over geological and contemporary timescales. Both the prevalence of fluctuating selection and its relevance for evolutionary dynamics remain poorly understood however, especially on contemporary timescales: unbiased empirical estimates of variation in selection are scarce, and the question of how much of the variation in selection translates into variation in genetic change has largely been ignored. Using long-term individual-based data for a wild rodent population, we quantify the magnitude of fluctuating selection on body size. Subsequently, we estimate the evolutionary dynamics of size and test for a link between fluctuating selection and evolution. We show that, over the past 11 years, phenotypic selection on body size has fluctuated significantly. However, the strength and direction of genetic change have remained largely constant over the study period; that is, the rate of genetic change was similar in years where selection favoured heavier vs. lighter individuals. This result suggests that over shorter timescales, fluctuating selection does not necessarily translate into fluctuating evolution. Importantly however, individual-based simulations show that the correlation between fluctuating selection and fluctuating evolution can be obscured by the effect of drift, and that substantially more data are required for a precise and accurate estimate of this correlation. We identify new challenges in measuring the coupling between selection and evolution, and provide methods and guidelines to overcome them.