Extreme mortality after first introduction of measles virus to the polynesian island of Rotuma, 1911

Transoceanic pathogen transfer in the age of sail and steam

In the centuries following Christopher Columbus's 1492 voyage to the Americas, transoceanic travel opened unprecedented pathways in global pathogen circulation. Yet no biological transfer is a single, discrete event. We use mathematical modeling to quantify historical risk of shipborne pathogen introduction, exploring the respective contributions of journey time, ship size, population susceptibility, transmission intensity, density dependence, and pathogen biology. We contextualize our results using port arrivals data from San Francisco, 1850 to 1852, and from a selection of historically significant voyages, 1492 to 1918. We offer numerical estimates of introduction risk across historically realistic ranges of journey time and ship population size, and show that both steam travel and shipping regimes that involved frequent, large-scale movement of people substantially increased risk of transoceanic pathogen circulation.

Extreme mortality during a historical measles outbreak on Rotuma is consistent with measles immunosuppression

Until the early twentieth century, populations on many Pacific Islands had never experienced measles. As travel to the Pacific Islands by Europeans became more common, the arrival of measles and other pathogens had devastating consequences. In 1911, Rotuma in Fiji was hit by a measles epidemic, which killed 13% of the island population. Detailed records show two mortality peaks, with individuals reported as dying solely from measles in the first and from measles and diarrhoea in the second. Measles is known to disrupt immune system function. Here, we investigate whether the pattern of mortality on Rotuma in 1911 was a consequence of the immunosuppressive effects of measles. We use a compartmental model to simulate measles infection and immunosuppression. Whilst immunosuppressed, we assume that individuals are vulnerable to dysfunctional reactions triggered by either (i) a newly introduced infectious agent arriving at the same time as measles or (ii) microbes already present in the population in a pre-existing equilibrium state. We show that both forms of the immunosuppression model provide a plausible fit to the data and that the inclusion of immunosuppression in the model leads to more realistic estimates of measles epidemiological parameters than when immunosuppression is not included.

Aerosol transmission of human pathogens: From miasmata to modern viral pandemics and their preservation potential in the Anthropocene record

Ongoing uncertainty over the relative importance of aerosol transmission of COVID-19 is in part rooted in the history of medical science and our understanding of how epidemic diseases can spread through human populations. Ancient Greek medical theory held that such illnesses are transmitted by airborne pathogenic emanations containing particulate matter ("miasmata"). Notable Roman and medieval scholars such as Varro, Ibn al-Khatib and Fracastoro developed these ideas, combining them with early germ theory and the concept of contagion. A widely held but vaguely defined belief in toxic miasmatic mists as a dominant causative agent in disease propagation was overtaken by the science of 19th century microbiology and epidemiology, especially in the study of cholera, which was proven to be mainly transmitted by contaminated water. Airborne disease transmission came to be viewed as burdened by a dubious historical reputation and difficult to demonstrate convincingly. A breakthrough came with the classic mid-20th century work of Wells, Riley and Mills who proved how expiratory aerosols (their "droplet nuclei") could transport still-infectious tuberculosis bacteria through ventilation systems. The topic of aerosol transmission of pathogenic respiratory diseases assumed a new dimension with the mid-late 20th century "Great Acceleration" of an increasingly hypermobile human population repeatedly infected by different strains of zoonotic viruses, and has taken centre stage this century in response to outbreaks of new respiratory infections that include coronaviruses. From a geoscience perspective, the consequences of pandemic-status diseases such as COVID-19, produced by viral pathogens utilising aerosols to infect a human population currently approaching 8 billion, are far-reaching and unprecedented. The obvious and sudden impacts on for example waste plastic production, water and air quality and atmospheric chemistry are accelerating human awareness of current environmental challenges. As such, the "anthropause" lockdown enforced by COVID-19 may come to be seen as a harbinger of change great enough to be preserved in the Anthropocene stratal record.

From rare disorders of immunity to common determinants of infection: Following the mechanistic thread

The immense interindividual clinical variability during any infection is a long-standing enigma. Inborn errors of IFN-γ and IFN-α/β immunity underlying rare infections with weakly virulent mycobacteria and seasonal influenza virus have inspired studies of two common infections: tuberculosis and COVID-19. A TYK2 genotype impairing IFN-γ production accounts for about 1% of tuberculosis cases, and autoantibodies neutralizing IFN-α/β account for about 15% of critical COVID-19 cases. The discovery of inborn errors and mechanisms underlying rare infections drove the identification of common monogenic or autoimmune determinants of related common infections. This "rare-to-common" genetic and mechanistic approach to infectious diseases may be of heuristic value.

Viruses That Can and Cannot Coexist With Humans and the Future of SARS-CoV-2

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has become a worldwide pandemic. Many projections concerning the outbreak, such as the estimated number of cases and deaths in upcoming months, have been made available. However, what happens to the virus after the pandemic subsides has not been fully explored. In this article, we discuss the ways that past and present human viruses have emerged via zoonotic transmission, the mechanisms that they have acquired the ability for effective transmission among humans, the process to sustain a chain of transmission to coexist with humans, and the factors important for complete containment leading to eradication of viruses. These aspects of viral disease may provide clues for the future path that SARS-CoV-2 might take in relation to human infection.

Examining the Complex Relationship Between Tuberculosis and Other Infectious Diseases in Children

Millions of children are exposed to tuberculosis (TB) each year, many of which become infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Most children can immunologically contain or eradicate the organism without pathology developing. However, in a minority, the organism overcomes the immunological constraints, proliferates and causes TB disease. Each year a million children develop TB disease, with a quarter dying. While it is known that young children and those with immunodeficiencies are at increased risk of progression from TB infection to TB disease, our understanding of risk factors for this transition is limited. The most immunologically disruptive process that can happen during childhood is infection with another pathogen and yet the impact of co-infections on TB risk is poorly investigated. Many diseases have overlapping geographical distributions to TB and affect similar patient populations. It is therefore likely that infection with viruses, bacteria, fungi and protozoa may impact on the risk of developing TB disease following exposure and infection, although disentangling correlation and causation is challenging. As vaccinations also disrupt immunological pathways, these may also impact on TB risk. In this article we describe the pediatric immune response to M. tuberculosis and then review the existing evidence of the impact of co-infection with other pathogens, as well as vaccination, on the host response to M. tuberculosis. We focus on the impact of other organisms on the risk of TB disease in children, in particularly evaluating if co-infections drive host immune responses in an age-dependent way. We finally propose priorities for future research in this field. An improved understanding of the impact of co-infections on TB could assist in TB control strategies, vaccine development (for TB vaccines or vaccines for other organisms), TB treatment approaches and TB diagnostics.

Fluctuating and Geographically Specific Selection Characterize Rapid Evolution of the Human KIR Region

The killer-cell immunoglobulin-like receptor (KIR) region comprises a fast-evolving family of genes that encode receptors for natural killer (NK) cells and have crucial role in host defense. Evolution of KIR was examined in the context of the human genome. Gene-content diversity and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in the KIR genes and flanking regions were compared to >660,000 genome-wide SNPs in over 800 individuals from 52 populations of the human genome diversity panel (HGDP). KIR allelic diversity was further examined using next generation sequencing in a subset of 56 individuals. We identified the SNP rs587560 located in KIR3DL3 as a marker of KIR2DL2 and KIR2DL3 and, consequently, Cen A and Cen B haplotypes. We also show that combinations of two KIR2DL4 SNPs (rs35656676 and rs592645) distinguish KIR3DL1 from KIR3DS1 and also define the major KIR3DL1 high- and low-expressing alleles lineages. Comparing the diversity of the SNPs within the KIR region to remainder of the genome, we observed a high diversity for the centromeric KIR region consistent with balancing selection (p < 0.01); in contrast, centromeric KIR diversity is significantly reduced in East Asian populations (p < 0.01), indicating purifying selection. By analyzing SNP haplotypes in a region spanning ~500 kb that includes the KIR cluster, we observed evidence of strong positive selection in Africa for high-expressing KIR3DL1 alleles, favored over the low-expressing alleles (p < 0.01). In sharp contrast, the strong positive selection (p < 0.01) that we also observed in the telomeric KIR region in Oceanic populations tracked with a high frequency of KIR3DS1. In addition, we demonstrated that worldwide frequency of high-expression KIR3DL1 alleles was correlated with virus with virus (r = 0.64, p < 10⁻⁶) and protozoa (r = 0.69, p < 10⁻⁶) loads, which points to selection globally on KIR3DL1 high-expressing alleles attributable to pathogen exposure.

T Lymphocytes as Measurable Targets of Protection and Vaccination Against Viral Disorders

Continuous epidemiological surveillance of existing and emerging viruses and their associated disorders is gaining importance in light of their abilities to cause unpredictable outbreaks as a result of increased travel and vaccination choices by steadily growing and aging populations. Close surveillance of outbreaks and herd immunity are also at the forefront, even in industrialized countries, where previously eradicated viruses are now at risk of re-emergence due to instances of strain recombination, contractions in viral vector geographies, and from their potential use as agents of bioterrorism. There is a great need for the rational design of current and future vaccines targeting viruses, with a strong focus on vaccine targeting of adaptive immune effector memory T cells as the gold standard of immunity conferring long-lived protection against a wide variety of pathogens and malignancies. Here, we review viruses that have historically caused large outbreaks and severe lethal disorders, including respiratory, gastric, skin, hepatic, neurologic, and hemorrhagic fevers. To observe trends in vaccinology against these viral disorders, we describe viral genetic, replication, transmission, and tropism, host-immune evasion strategies, and the epidemiology and health risks of their associated syndromes. We focus on immunity generated against both natural infection and vaccination, where a steady shift in conferred vaccination immunogenicity is observed from quantifying activated and proliferating, long-lived effector memory T cell subsets, as the prominent biomarkers of long-term immunity against viruses and their associated disorders causing high morbidity and mortality rates.

Back to the Future: Lessons Learned From the 1918 Influenza Pandemic

2018 marks the 100-year anniversary of the 1918 influenza pandemic, which killed ~50 million people worldwide. The severity of this pandemic resulted from a complex interplay between viral, host, and societal factors. Here, we review the viral, genetic and immune factors that contributed to the severity of the 1918 pandemic and discuss the implications for modern pandemic preparedness. We address unresolved questions of why the 1918 influenza H1N1 virus was more virulent than other influenza pandemics and why some people survived the 1918 pandemic and others succumbed to the infection. While current studies suggest that viral factors such as haemagglutinin and polymerase gene segments most likely contributed to a potent, dysregulated pro-inflammatory cytokine storm in victims of the pandemic, a shift in case-fatality for the 1918 pandemic toward young adults was most likely associated with the host's immune status. Lack of pre-existing virus-specific and/or cross-reactive antibodies and cellular immunity in children and young adults likely contributed to the high attack rate and rapid spread of the 1918 H1N1 virus. In contrast, lower mortality rate in in the older (>30 years) adult population points toward the beneficial effects of pre-existing cross-reactive immunity. In addition to the role of humoral and cellular immunity, there is a growing body of evidence to suggest that individual genetic differences, especially involving single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), contribute to differences in the severity of influenza virus infections. Co-infections with bacterial pathogens, and possibly measles and malaria, co-morbidities, malnutrition or obesity are also known to affect the severity of influenza disease, and likely influenced 1918 H1N1 disease severity and outcomes. Additionally, we also discuss the new challenges, such as changing population demographics, antibiotic resistance and climate change, which we will face in the context of any future influenza virus pandemic. In the last decade there has been a dramatic increase in the number of severe influenza virus strains entering the human population from animal reservoirs (including highly pathogenic H7N9 and H5N1 viruses). An understanding of past influenza virus pandemics and the lessons that we have learnt from them has therefore never been more pertinent.

The unusually diverse mortality patterns in the Pacific region during the 1918-21 influenza pandemic: reflections at the pandemic's centenary

The 1918-21 influenza pandemic was the most lethal natural event in recent history. In the Pacific region, the pandemic's effects varied greatly across different populations and settings. In this region, the pandemic's lethal effects extended over 3 years, from November, 1918, in New Zealand to as late as July, 1921, in New Caledonia. Although a single virus strain probably affected all the islands, mortality varied from less than 0·1% in Tasmania, to 22% in Western Samoa. The varied expressions of the pandemic across the islands reflected the nature and timing of past influenza epidemics, degrees of social isolation, ethnicity and sex-related effects, and the likelihood of exposures to pathogenic respiratory bacteria during influenza illnesses. The high case-fatality rate associated with this pandemic seems unlikely to recur in future influenza pandemics; however, understanding the critical determinants of the mass mortality associated with the 1918-21 pandemic is essential to prepare for future pandemics.

Pneumonia, Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome, and Early Immune-Modulator Therapy

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is caused by infectious insults, such as pneumonia from various pathogens or related to other noninfectious events. Clinical and histopathologic characteristics are similar across severely affected patients, suggesting that a common mode of immune reaction may be involved in the immunopathogenesis of ARDS. There may be etiologic substances that have an affinity for respiratory cells and induce lung cell injury in cases of ARDS. These substances originate not only from pathogens, but also from injured host cells. At the molecular level, these substances have various sizes and biochemical characteristics, classifying them as protein substances and non-protein substances. Immune cells and immune proteins may recognize and act on these substances, including pathogenic proteins and peptides, depending upon the size and biochemical properties of the substances (this theory is known as the protein-homeostasis-system hypothesis). The severity or chronicity of ARDS depends on the amount of etiologic substances with corresponding immune reactions, the duration of the appearance of specific immune cells, or the repertoire of specific immune cells that control the substances. Therefore, treatment with early systemic immune modulators (corticosteroids and/or intravenous immunoglobulin) as soon as possible may reduce aberrant immune responses in the potential stage of ARDS.

Rapid mortality transition of Pacific Islands in the 19th century

The depopulation of Pacific islands during the 16th to 19th centuries is a striking example of historical mass mortality due to infectious disease. Pacific Island populations have not been subject to such cataclysmic infectious disease mortality since. Here we explore the processes which could have given rise to this shift in infectious disease mortality patterns. We show, using mathematical models, that the population dynamics exhibited by Pacific Island populations are unlikely to be the result of Darwinian evolution. We propose that extreme mortality during first-contact epidemics is a function of epidemiological isolation, not a lack of previous selection. If, as pathogens become established in populations, extreme mortality is rapidly suppressed by herd immunity, Pacific Island population mortality patterns can be explained with no need to invoke genetic change. We discuss the mechanisms by which this could occur, including (i) a link between the proportion of the population transmitting infectious agents and case-fatality rates, and (ii) the course of infection with pathogens such as measles and smallpox being more severe in adults than in children. Overall, we consider the present-day risk of mass mortality from newly emerging infectious diseases is unlikely to be greater on Pacific islands than in other geographical areas.

Lethality of First Contact Dysentery Epidemics on Pacific Islands

Infectious diseases depopulated many isolated Pacific islands when they were first exposed to global pathogen circulation from the 18th century. Although the mortality was great, the lack of medical observers makes determination of what happened during these historical epidemics largely speculative. Bacillary dysentery caused by Shigella is the most likely infection causing some of the most lethal island epidemics. The fragmentary historical record is reviewed to gain insight into the possible causes of the extreme lethality that was observed during first-contact epidemics in the Pacific. Immune aspects of the early dysentery epidemics and postmeasles infection resulting in subacute inflammatory enteric disease suggest that epidemiologic isolation was the major lethality risk factor on Pacific islands in the 19th century. Other possible risk factors include human leukocyte antigen homogeneity from a founder effect and pathogen-induced derangement of immune tolerance to gut flora. If this analysis is correct, then Pacific islands are currently at no greater risk of emerging disease epidemics than other developing countries despite their dark history.

Age-specific measles mortality during the late 19th–early 20th centuries

Measles mortality fell prior to the introduction of vaccines or antibiotics. By examining historical mortality reports we sought to determine how much measles mortality was due to epidemiological factors such as isolation from major population centres or increased age at time of infection. Age-specific records were available from Aberdeen; Scotland; New Zealand and the states of Australia at the end of the 19th and beginning of the 20th centuries. Despite the relative isolation of Australia, measles mortality was concentrated in very young children similar to Aberdeen. In the more isolated states of Tasmania, Western Australia and Queensland adults made up 14–15% of measles deaths as opposed to 8–9% in Victoria, South Australia and New South Wales. Mortality in Iceland and Faroe Islands during the 1846 measles epidemic was used as an example of islands isolated from respiratory pathogens. The transition from crisis mortality across all ages to deaths concentrated in young children occurred prior to the earliest age-specific mortality data collected. Factors in addition to adult age of infection and epidemiological isolation such as nutritional status and viral virulence may have contributed to measles mortality outcomes a century ago.

Picornavirus infection leading to immunosuppression

Viruses, such as HIV, hepatitis A, poliovirus, coxsackievirus B3 and foot-and-mouth disease virus, use a variety of mechanisms to suppress the human immune system in order to evade clearance by the host. Therefore, investigating how a few changes in the viral genome of a nonlethal virus can lead to an alteration in disease, from survivable to immunosuppression and death, would provide valuable information into viral pathogenesis. In addition, we propose that gaining a better insight into how these viruses suppress an antiviral immune response could lead to viral-based therapeutics to combat specifc autoimmune diseases such as multiple sclerosis and Type 1 diabetes.

Measles epidemics of variable lethality in the early 20th century

Until the mid-20th century, mortality rates were often very high during measles epidemics, particularly among previously isolated populations (e.g., islanders), refugees/internees who were forcibly crowded into camps, and military recruits. Searching for insights regarding measles mortality rates, we reviewed historical records of measles epidemics on the Polynesian island of Rotuma (in 1911), in Boer War concentration camps (in 1900-1902), and in US Army mobilization camps during the First World War (in 1917-1918). Records classified measles deaths by date and clinical causes; by demographic characteristics, family relationships (for Rotuma islanders and Boer camp internees), and prior residences; and by camp (for Boer internees and US Army recruits). During the Rotuman and Boer War epidemics, measles-related mortality rates were high (up to 40%); however, mortality rates differed more than 10-fold across camps/districts, even though conditions were similar. During measles epidemics, most deaths among camp internees/military recruits were due to secondary bacterial pneumonias; in contrast, most deaths among Rotuman islanders were due to gastrointestinal complications. The clinical expressions, courses, and outcomes of measles during first-contact epidemics differ from those during camp epidemics. The degree of isolation from respiratory pathogens other than measles may significantly determine measles-related mortality risk.

Measles immune suppression: lessons from the macaque model

Measles remains a significant childhood disease, and is associated with a transient immune suppression. Paradoxically, measles virus (MV) infection also induces robust MV-specific immune responses. Current hypotheses for the mechanism underlying measles immune suppression focus on functional impairment of lymphocytes or antigen-presenting cells, caused by infection with or exposure to MV. We have generated stable recombinant MVs that express enhanced green fluorescent protein, and remain virulent in non-human primates. By performing a comprehensive study of virological, immunological, hematological and histopathological observations made in animals euthanized at different time points after MV infection, we developed a model explaining measles immune suppression which fits with the "measles paradox". Here we show that MV preferentially infects CD45RA(-) memory T-lymphocytes and follicular B-lymphocytes, resulting in high infection levels in these populations. After the peak of viremia MV-infected lymphocytes were cleared within days, followed by immune activation and lymph node enlargement. During this period tuberculin-specific T-lymphocyte responses disappeared, whilst strong MV-specific T-lymphocyte responses emerged. Histopathological analysis of lymphoid tissues showed lymphocyte depletion in the B- and T-cell areas in the absence of apoptotic cells, paralleled by infiltration of T-lymphocytes into B-cell follicles and reappearance of proliferating cells. Our findings indicate an immune-mediated clearance of MV-infected CD45RA(-) memory T-lymphocytes and follicular B-lymphocytes, which causes temporary immunological amnesia. The rapid oligoclonal expansion of MV-specific lymphocytes and bystander cells masks this depletion, explaining the short duration of measles lymphopenia yet long duration of immune suppression.

Pacific islands which escaped the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic and their subsequent mortality experiences

Very few Pacific islands escaped the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic. Subsequent influenza epidemics in the established colonial outposts of American Samoa and New Caledonia infected many but killed very few persons whereas the extraordinarily isolated Niue, Rotuma, Jaliut and Yule islands experienced high mortality influenza epidemics (>3% of population) following 1918. These dichotomous outcomes indicate that previous influenza exposure and degree of epidemiological isolation were important mortality risk factors during influenza epidemics on Pacific islands.

Pandemic 2009 H1N1 virus infection in children and adults: A cohort study at a single hospital throughout the epidemic

BACKGROUND

In 2009, there was an influenza pandemic in South Korea. The aim of this study was to evaluate the epidemiological, clinical and laboratory characteristics of this infection in children and adults.

METHODS

We evaluated the epidemiologic characteristics of patients infected with the 2009 H1N1 influenza A virus (4,463 patients, age range from 2 mo to 86 y), and the clinical and laboratory findings of 373 inpatients (80/217 children, ≤ 15 y, had pneumonia and 36/156 adults, > 16 y, had pneumonia) in a single hospital during the epidemic.

RESULTS

The majority of infected patients (94%) were less than 40 y, and greater than 90% of cases occurred during a two-month period. The rates of admission and pneumonia were 8.4% (373/4,463) and 2.5% (116/4,463), respectively. The rates of admission and pneumonia, total duration of fever, the frequency of underlying diseases, and the values of C-reactive protein and erythrocyte sedimentation rate tended to increase as age increased; highest rates were found in the ≥ 65 y group. Pneumonia was founded more boys than girls in children, but more female than male in adults. The adult patients with pneumonia had higher leukocyte counts with lower lymphocyte differentials than the group without pneumonia, as shown in children group.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that the immunologic reaction to viral insults may be associated with age, sex and underlying diseases, and that unknown herd immunity may affect populations. The patients with underlying diseases, especially in older patients may have immunologic insufficiency that is associated with immunologic consumption by the underlying diseases.

Measles virus, immune control, and persistence

Measles remains one of the most important causes of child morbidity and mortality worldwide with the greatest burden in the youngest children. Most acute measles deaths are owing to secondary infections that result from a poorly understood measles-induced suppression of immune responses. Young children are also vulnerable to late development of subacute sclerosing panencephalitis, a progressive, uniformly fatal neurologic disease caused by persistent measles virus (MeV) infection. During acute infection, the rash marks the appearance of the adaptive immune response and CD8(+) T cell-mediated clearance of infectious virus. However, after clearance of infectious virus, MeV RNA persists and can be detected in blood, respiratory secretions, urine, and lymphoid tissue for many weeks to months. This prolonged period of virus clearance may help to explain measles immunosuppression and the development of lifelong immunity to re-infection, as well as occasional infection of the nervous system. Once MeV infects neurons, the virus can spread trans-synaptically and the envelope proteins needed to form infectious virus are unnecessary, accumulate mutations, and can establish persistent infection. Identification of the immune mechanisms required for the clearance of MeV RNA from multiple sites will enlighten our understanding of the development of disease owing to persistent infection.