The Potential Epidemiological Impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Epidemic and the Cost-effectiveness of Linked, Opt-out HIV Testing: A Modeling Study in 6 US Cities

The effects of HIV self-testing on HIV incidence and awareness of status among men who have sex with men in the United States: Insights from a novel compartmental model

BACKGROUND

The OraQuick In-Home HIV self-test represents a fast, inexpensive, and convenient method for users to assess their HIV status. If integrated thoughtfully into existing testing practices, accompanied by efficient pathways to formal diagnosis, self-testing could enhance both HIV awareness and reduce HIV incidence. However, currently available self-tests are less sensitive, particularly for recent infection, when compared to gold-standard laboratory tests. It is important to understand the impact if some portion of standard testing is replaced by self-tests. We used a compartmental model to evaluate the effects of self-testing in diverse scenarios among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States for the period 2020-2030, and to understand which scenarios maximize the advantages of self-testing.

METHODS

We introduced a novel 4-compartment model for HIV self-testing. We employed the model under different screening rates, self-test proportions, and delays to diagnosis for those identified through self-tests to determine the potential effects of self-testing on HIV incidence and awareness of status when applied to the US MSM population. We studied scenarios in which self-tests supplement laboratory-based tests, with no replacement, and scenarios in which some replacement occurs. We also examined how future improvements in self-test sensitivity may affect our results.

RESULTS

When HIV self-tests are supplemental rather than substitutes for laboratory-based testing, self-testing can decrease HIV incidence among MSM in the US by up to 10 % and increase awareness of status among MSM from 85 % to 91 % over a 10-year period, provided linkage to care and formal diagnosis occur promptly following a positive self-test (90 days or less). As self-tests replace a higher percentage laboratory-based testing algorithms, increases in overall testing rates were necessary to ensure reductions in HIV incidence. However, such needed increases were relatively small (under 10 % for prompt engagement in care and moderate levels of replacement). Improvements in self-test sensitivity and/or decreases in the detection period may further reduce any necessary increases in overall testing by up to 40 %.

CONCLUSIONS

If properly utilized, self-testing can provide significant long-term reductions to HIV incidence and improve awareness of HIV status. Ensuring that self-testing increases overall testing and that formal diagnosis and engagement in care occur promptly following a positive self-test are necessary to maximize the benefits of self-testing. Future improvements in self-test sensitivity and reductions in the detection period would further reduce HIV incidence and the potential risks associated with replacing laboratory tests with self-tests.

Characteristics and outcomes of people living with HIV hospitalised at tertiary healthcare institutions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico City

BACKGROUND

While existing research on people living with HIV (PWH) during the COVID-19 pandemic primarily focused on their clinical outcomes, a critical gap remains in understanding the implications of COVID-19 delivery of in-hospital care services to PWH. Our study aimed to describe the characteristics and outcomes of PWH hospitalised during 2020 in Mexico City, comparing patients admitted due to COVID-19 vs. patients admitted due to other causes.

METHODS

All PWH hospitalised for ≥ 24 h at four institutions in Mexico City from January 1st to December 31st, 2020 were included. Patients were classified into two groups according to the leading cause of their first hospitalisation: COVID-19 or non-COVID-19. Characteristics among groups were compared using chi-square and Kruskal tests. A Cox model was used to describe the risk of death after hospitalisation and the characteristics associated with this outcome. Mortality and hospitalisation events were compared to data from 2019.

RESULTS

Overall, we included 238 PWH hospitalised in 2020. Among them, 42 (18%) were hospitalised due to COVID-19 and 196 (82%) due to non-COVID-19 causes, mainly AIDS-defining events (ADE). PWH hospitalised due to COVID-19 had higher CD4 + cell counts (380 cells/mm3 [IQR: 184-580] vs. 97 cells/mm3 [IQR: 34-272], p < 0.01) and a higher proportion of virologic suppression (VS) compared to those hospitalised due to non-COVID-19 causes (92% vs. 55%, p < 0.01). The adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for AIDS was 3.1 (95%CI: 1.3-7.2). COVID-19 was not associated with death (aHR 0.9 [95%CI: 0.3-2.9]). Compared to 2019, mortality was significantly higher in 2020 (19% vs. 9%, p < 0.01), while hospitalisations decreased by 57%.

CONCLUSIONS

PWH with COVID-19 had higher VS and CD4 + cell counts and lower mortality compared to those hospitalised due to non-COVID-19-related causes, who more often were recently diagnosed with HIV and had ADEs. Most hospitalisations and deaths in 2020 in PWH were related to advanced HIV disease. The increased mortality and decreased hospitalisations of PWH during 2020 evidence the impact of the interruption of health services delivery for PWH with advanced disease due to the pandemic. Our findings highlight the challenges faced by PWH during 2020 in a country where advanced HIV remains a concern.

New sexually transmitted HIV infections from 2016 to 2050 in Guangdong Province, China: a study based on a dynamic compartmental model

BACKGROUND

In Guangdong Province, China, there is lack of information on the HIV epidemic among high-risk groups and the general population, particularly in relation to sexual transmission, which is a predominant route. The new HIV infections each year is also uncertain owing to HIV transmission from men who have sex with men (MSM) to women, as a substantial proportion of MSM also have female sexual partnerships to comply with social demands in China.

METHODS

A deterministic compartmental model was developed to predict new HIV infections in four risk groups, including heterosexual men and women and low- and high-risk MSM, in Guangdong Province from 2016 to 2050, considering HIV transmission from MSM to women. The new HIV infections and its 95% credible interval (CrI) were predicted. An adaptive sequential Monte Carlo method for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC-SMC) was used to estimate the unknown parameter, a mixing index. We calibrated our results based on new HIV diagnoses and proportions of late diagnoses. The Morris and Sobol methods were applied in the sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

New HIV infections increased during and 2 years after the COVID-19 pandemic, then declined until 2050. New infections rose from 8,828 [95% credible interval (CrI): 6,435-10,451] in 2016 to 9,652 (95% CrI: 7,027-11,434) in 2019, peaking at 11,152 (95% CrI: 8,337-13,062) in 2024 before declining to 7,084 (95% CrI: 5,165-8,385) in 2035 and 4,849 (95% CrI: 3,524-5,747) in 2050. Women accounted for approximately 25.0% of new HIV infections, MSM accounted for 40.0% (approximately 55.0% of men), and high-risk MSM accounted for approximately 25.0% of the total. The ABC-SMC mixing index was 0.504 (95% CrI: 0.239-0.894).

CONCLUSIONS

Given that new HIV infections and the proportion of women were relatively high in our calibrated model, to some extent, the HIV epidemic in Guangdong Province remains serious, and services for HIV prevention and control are urgently needed to return to the levels before the COVID-19 epidemic, especially in promoting condom-based safe sex and increasing awareness of HIV prevention to general population.

Adolescent HIV Screening and Opt-Out Testing as a Standard of Care

Despite the significant steps made in the diagnosis and treatment of HIV, there is still a notable amount of people living with HIV without being diagnosed, with a fair portion of these infections occurring in adolescents and young adults. For some individuals, by the time they are diagnosed they are living with advanced-staged disease, missing the opportunity for receiving antiretroviral treatment that would have markedly reduced their morbidity, mortality, and risk of transmission to others. Opt-out testing, or notifying the patient the test will be performed unless explicitly declined or deferred, increases the rates of testing while reducing the stigma of the disease. It is a universal recommendation for those between ages 13 and 55 years to have an HIV screening test. It should be standard of care for HIV tests in the adolescent population to be structured as an opt-out screening in both the ambulatory and acute care settings. [Pediatr Ann. 2024;53(4):e111-e113.].

Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 on HIV Outcomes in the United States: A Modeling Study

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic impacted sexual behaviors and the HIV continuum of care in the United States, reducing HIV testing and diagnosis, and use of preexposure prophylaxis and antiretroviral therapy. We aimed to understand the future implications of these effects through a modeling study.

METHODS

We first ran our compartmental model of HIV transmission in the United States accounting for pandemic-related short-term changes in transmission behavior and HIV prevention and care provision in 2020 to 2021 only. We then ran a comparison scenario that did not apply pandemic effects but assumed a continuation of past HIV prevention and care trends. We compared results from the 2 scenarios through 2024.

RESULTS

HIV incidence was 4·4% lower in 2020 to 2021 for the pandemic scenario compared with the no-pandemic scenario because of reduced levels of transmission behavior, despite reductions in HIV prevention and care caused by the pandemic. However, reduced care led to less viral load suppression among people with HIV in 2020, and in turn, our model resulted in a slightly greater incidence of 2·0% from 2022 to 2024 in the COVID-19 scenario, as compared with the non-COVID scenario.

DISCUSSION

Disruptions in HIV prevention and care services during COVID-19 may lead to somewhat higher postpandemic HIV incidence than assuming prepandemic trends in HIV care and prevention continued. These results underscore the importance of continuing to increase HIV prevention and care efforts in the coming years.

Concurrent Testing for COVID-19 and HIV Infection at 6 High-Volume Emergency Departments in a Priority Jurisdiction for Ending the HIV Epidemic in the United States

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic caused disruptions in access to routine HIV screening.

SETTING

We assess HIV and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) testing across 6 emergency departments (EDs) in Cook County, Illinois.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the number of SARS-CoV-2 tests, HIV screens, and the proportion of concurrent tests (encounters with both SARS-CoV-2 and HIV testing), correlating with diagnoses of new and acute HIV infection.

RESULTS

Five sites reported data from March 1, 2020, to February 28, 2021, and 1 site from September 1, 2020, to February 28, 2021. A total of 1,13,645 SARS-CoV-2 and 36,094 HIV tests were performed; 17,469 of these were concurrent tests. There were 102 new HIV diagnoses, including 25 acute infections. Concurrent testing proportions ranged from 6.7% to 37% across sites (P < 0.001). HIV testing volume correlated with the number of new diagnoses (r = 0.66, P < 0.01). HIV testing with symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 testing was strongly correlated with diagnosis of acute infections (r = 0.87, P < 0.001); this was not statistically significant when controlling for HIV testing volumes (r = 0.59, P = 0.056). Acute patients were more likely to undergo concurrent testing (21/25) versus other new diagnoses (29/77; odds ratio = 8.69, 95% CI: 2.7 to 27.8, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Incorporating HIV screening into SARS-CoV-2 testing in the ED can help maintain HIV screening volumes. Although all patients presenting to the ED should be offered opt-out HIV screening, testing individuals with symptoms of COVID-19 or other viral illness affords the opportunity to diagnose symptomatic acute and early HIV infection, rapidly link to care, and initiate treatment.

The impact of COVID-19 on the HIV continuum of care: challenges, innovations, and opportunities

INTRODUCTION

In February 2019, the United States (US) launched the Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) initiative with emphasis on improving the various steps of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) prevention and care continuum. However, in March 2020, the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic was declared, curtailing efforts to end the epidemic in the US.

AREAS COVERED

To describe the impact of the pandemic on EHE in the US, the authors performed a comprehensive literature review focusing on outcomes at each step of the HIV care continuum. Simultaneously, they identified examples of pandemic-era innovations that may help EHE.

EXPERT OPINION

Numerous studies demonstrated pandemic-related disruptions across the care continuum as well as the impact on preexisting barriers to care among People with HIV (PWH) at higher risk for poor outcomes. As the pandemic progressed, innovative approaches to delivering healthcare and providing essential services emerged, including widespread use of telemedicine, expansion of home-based care, self-collected sexually transmitted infection (STI) and HIV testing, and co-located testing for COVID-19 and HIV/STIs. While the COVID-19 pandemic initially hindered achieving EHE in the US, the ability to be agile, flexible, and creative led to innovation in HIV care delivery that may ultimately assist in meeting EHE goals as we transition into the post-pandemic era.

Impact of COVID-19 Response on the HIV Epidemic in Men Who Have Sex With Men in San Francisco County: The Importance of Rapid Return to Normalcy

BACKGROUND

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, San Francisco County (SFC) had to shift many nonemergency health care resources to COVID-19, reducing HIV control resources. We sought to quantify COVID-19 effects on HIV burden among men who have sex with men (MSM) as SFC returns to pre-COVID service levels and progresses toward the Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) goals.

SETTING

Microsimulation model of MSM in SFC tracking HIV progression and treatment.

METHODS

Scenario analysis where services affected by COVID-19 [testing, care engagement, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) uptake, and retention] return to pre-COVID levels by the end of 2022 or 2025, compared against a counterfactual where COVID-19 changes never occurred. We also examined scenarios where resources are prioritized to reach new patients or retain of existing patients from 2023 to 2025 before all services return to pre-COVID levels.

RESULTS

The annual number of MSM prescribed PrEP, newly acquired HIV, newly diagnosed, and achieving viral load suppression (VLS) rebound quickly after HIV care returns to pre-COVID levels. However, COVID-19 service disruptions result in measurable reductions in cumulative PrEP use, VLS person-years, incidence, and an increase in deaths over the 2020-2035 period. The burden is statistically significantly larger if these effects end in 2025 instead of 2022. Prioritizing HIV care/prevention initiation over retention results in more person-years of PrEP but less VLS person-years and more deaths, influencing EHE PrEP outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Earlier HIV care return to pre-COVID levels results in lower cumulative HIV burdens. Resource prioritization decisions may differentially affect different EHE goals.

Isolating the Effect of COVID-19-Related Disruptions on HIV Diagnoses in the United States in 2020

BACKGROUND

Diagnoses of HIV in the United States decreased by 17% in 2020 due to COVID-related disruptions. The extent to which this decrease is attributable to changes in HIV testing versus HIV transmission is unclear. We seek to better understand this issue by analyzing the discrepancy in expected versus observed HIV diagnoses in 2020 among persons who acquired HIV between 2010 and 2019 because changes in diagnosis patterns in this cohort cannot be attributed to changes in transmission.

METHODS

We developed 3 methods based on the CD4-depletion model to estimate excess missed diagnoses in 2020 among persons with HIV (PWH) infected from 2010 to 2019. We stratified the results by transmission group, sex assigned at birth, race/ethnicity, and region to examine differences by group and confirm the reliability of our estimates. We performed similar analyses projecting diagnoses in 2019 among PWH infected from 2010 to 2018 to evaluate the accuracy of our methods against surveillance data.

RESULTS

There were approximately 3100-3300 (approximately 18%) fewer diagnoses than expected in 2020 among PWH infected from 2010 to 2019. Females (at birth), heterosexuals, persons who inject drugs, and Hispanic/Latino PWH missed diagnoses at higher levels than the overall population. Validation and stratification analyses confirmed the accuracy and reliability of our estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

The substantial drop in number of previously infected PWH diagnosed in 2020 suggests that changes in testing played a substantial role in the observed decrease. Levels of missed diagnoses differed substantially across population subgroups. Increasing testing efforts and innovative strategies to reach undiagnosed PWH are needed to offset this diagnosis gap. These analyses may be used to inform future estimates of HIV transmission during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Evaluation of the impact of COVID-19 in people coinfected with HIV and/or tuberculosis in low-income countries: study protocol for mixed methods research in Burkina Faso

BACKGROUND

An issue of particular concern is the impact of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019 nCOV) on the people coinfected with the Human Immuno-deficiency Virus (HIV) and/or tuberculosis (TB). Unfortunately, this interaction has not been well explored in African despite the large proportion of these risk populations living with HIV and/or patients and/or tuberculosis (TB) in the African region. This study aims to design a research protocol for assessment of the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on these risk populations in response to COVID-19 strategic plans in Burkina Faso by generating serological, epidemiological, virological, clinical and socio-anthropological evidence-based data.

METHODS

A multidisciplinary research will be conducted in the city of Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso using mixed methods. Data will be collected from a cohort of people living with HIV and/or TB patients in the city (i) to determine the proportion of people with specific antibodies against the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) using retrospective data ; (ii) to determine the proportion of people infected with Covid-19 and the dynamics of viral loads and antibodies in these people based on prospective data; (iii) to identify circulating SARS-COV-2 variants and novel biomarkers using prospective data ; (iv) to analyze perceptions, community experiences and response strategies during the public health emergencies imposed by COVID-19 through a qualitative study.

DISCUSSION

This study will generate factual and comprehensive data that will contribute in improving response strategies to COVID-19 and the other possible emerging diseases with keen interest on the risk populations living with HIV and/or TB infected patients.

Factors associated with the adoption of evidence-based innovations by substance use disorder treatment organizations: A study of HIV testing

INTRODUCTION

Though prior research shows that a range of important regulatory, market, community, and organizational factors influence the adoption of evidence-based practices (EBPs) among health care organizations, we have little understanding of how these factors relate to each other. To address this gap, we test a conceptual model that emphasizes indirect, mediated effects among key factors related to HIV testing in substance use disorder treatment organizations (SUTs), a critical EBP during the US opioid epidemic.

METHODS

We draw on nationally representative data from the 2014 (n = 697) and 2017 (n = 657) National Drug Abuse Treatment System Survey (NDATSS) to measure the adoption of HIV testing among the nation's SUTs and their key organizational characteristics; we also draw on data from the US Census Bureau; Centers for Disease Control; and legislative sources to measure regulatory and community environments. We estimate cross-sectional and longitudinal structural equation models (SEM) to test the proposed model.

RESULTS

Our longitudinal model of the adoption of HIV testing by SUTs in the United States identifies a pathway by which community and market characteristics (rurality and the number of other SUTs in the area) are related to key sociotechnical characteristics of these organizations (alignment of clients, staff, and harm-reduction culture) that, in turn, are related to the adoption of this EBP.

CONCLUSIONS

Results also show the importance of developing conceptual models that include indirect effects to account for organizational adoption of EBPs.

Impacts of COVID-19 on sexual behaviors, HIV prevention and care among men who have sex with men: A comparison of New York City and Metropolitan Atlanta

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted HIV prevention, care, and transmission opportunities. This likely varies by geography, given differences in COVID-19 burden and mandates over time, and by age, given different likelihoods of severe COVID-19 consequences. We consider changes in sexual behavior, HIV testing, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use and antiretroviral therapy (ART) use among men who have sex with men (MSM) over the first year of the COVID-19 epidemic, comparing the Atlanta metropolitan area and New York City (NYC). We use two continuous time-series datasets and one panel dataset, assessing changes over time within city and comparing across cities, and disaggregate major findings by age. For clinical results, ART use showed by far the smallest reductions, and testing the largest. Disruptions occurred concurrently between cities, despite the major wave of COVID-19, and government mandates, occurring later in Atlanta. Test positivity increased in NYC only. In both cities, younger MSM saw the greatest reductions in testing and PrEP use, but the smallest in sexual behavior. Reduced clinical service usage would be unconcerning if stemming solely from reductions in exposure; however, the patterns for young MSM suggest that the COVID-19 epidemic likely generated new conditions for increased HIV transmission, especially in this cohort.

CD4 + Count: a Variable to Be Considered to Prioritize COVID-19 Vaccination in PLHIV

The outbreak of the COVID-19 propagates, pressurizing the healthcare system by emphasizing and worsening the inequities. While many vaccines have shown excellent efficacy in protecting the general public from the COVID-19 infection, the efficacy of these vaccines for people living with HIV (PLHIV), especially those having a different range of CD4 + T-cell, has yet to be thoroughly investigated. Few studies have uncovered the escalated infection and death rates due to the COVID-19 infection in individuals with low CD4 + T-cells. Additionally, PLHIV has a low CD4 + count; furthermore, specific CD4 + T cells for coronavirus have a vigorous Th1 role and are related to the protective antibody responses. Follicular helper T cells (TFH) are vulnerable to HIV and virus-specific CD4 & CD8 T-cells which are essential for viral infection clearance and defective immune responses which further contributes to the development of illness. The specific CD8 & CD4 + T-cell reaction to severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) was identified in almost all COVID-19 recovered individuals, which is related to the size of antibodies of immunoglobulin G. It has previously been demonstrated that PLHIV has decreased responses to certain vaccines and that these responses are reliant on CD4 + T-cell levels. COVID-19 vaccines will likely have a lower response or limited effect, in PLHIV having low CD4 + T-cells.

Impact of COVID-19 on HIV Testing Among AIDS Institute-Funded Providers in New York State-A Time Series Analysis

BACKGROUND

New York State (NYS) was at the intersection of the HIV epidemic and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic leading to a disruption in HIV-preventive services. This study sought to determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and mitigation efforts on HIV-testing trends in NYS among AIDS Institute (AI)-funded providers.

METHODS

We analyzed weekly testing data from the AI Reporting System from January 1, 2017, to June 27, 2021, to fit an interrupted time series model that predicted the expected number of HIV tests among AI-funded providers in NYS had the COVID-19 pandemic not occurred. The actual observed numbers of HIV testing that occurred from weeks beginning March 15, 2020, to June 30, 2021, were compared with the number of HIV tests predicted by the model.

RESULTS

In the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic, our model predicted that there would have been 45,605 HIV tests among AI-funded providers between the weeks beginning March 15, 2020, to June 27, 2021. We observed 20,742 HIV tests, representing a 54.5% reduction. We observed percent decreases of greater than 50% for HIV testing among AI-funded providers for New York City (52.9%) and rest of state (59.8%) regions, male (50.6%) and female (66.8%) genders, as well as Black (59.2%), Hispanic (52.8%), mixed race (57.5%), other (50.3%), and White (50.1%) race and ethnicities.

CONCLUSION

HIV testing among AI-funded providers in NYS has declined substantially following the COVID-19 pandemic, reflecting decreased access to, and/or demand for, testing among persons at elevated risk for HIV. Initiatives to increase HIV testing and maintain access to HIV prevention services need to be explored following COVID-19.

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 lockdown on expansion of HIV transmission clusters among key populations: A retrospective phylogenetic analysis

Background

Public health measures designed to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission led to reduced access to care and prevention services for people living with or at risk of acquiring HIV, particularly during the initial introduction of extensive restrictions. This reduction in access may have contributed to increases in HIV transmission not outweighed by decreases in transmission occurring as a result of reduced contact rates promoted by the same public health measures.

Methods

We synthesize available province-wide HIV data in British Columbia, Canada, together with public mobility data to phylogenetically investigate the early impacts of SARS-CoV-2 on HIV transmission. Cluster growth, coalescent branching events and lineage-level diversification rates were assessed in "pre-lockdown" (January 22-March 21, 2020), "lockdown" (March 22-May 20, 2020) and "post-lockdown" (May 21-July 19, 2020) to facilitate comparison of transmission trends across key populations.

Findings

Results reveal increased HIV transmission in a limited number of clusters in association with reduced access to health services during the initial introduction of SARS-CoV-2-related restrictions. In particular, clusters associated with people who inject drugs (PWID) show rapid growth, extensive branching events in phylogenetic trees during and following the lockdown period, and elevated median change in individuals' viral diversification rates during lockdown compared to clusters associated with men who have sex with men (MSM), consistent with increased transmission rates between PWID.

Interpretation

Increased vigilance and innovative targeted solutions are critical to offset potential negative impacts of SARS-CoV-2 or future pandemic-related restrictions on HIV epidemic dynamics.

Funding

Funding sources include Genome Canada and Genome BC, the Public Health Agency of Canada, the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research Coronavirus Rapid Response Programme. Student funding includes a NSERC CREATE scholarship and a Canadian Institutes of Health Research graduate fellowship.

A stakeholder-driven framework for measuring potential change in the health risks of people who inject drugs (PWID) during the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

People who inject drugs (PWID) have likely borne disproportionate health consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. PWID experienced both interruptions and changes to drug supply and delivery modes of harm reduction, treatment, and other medical services, leading to potentially increased risks for HIV, hepatitis C virus (HCV), and overdose. Given surveillance and research disruptions, proximal, indirect indicators of infectious diseases and overdose should be developed for timely measurement of health effects of the pandemic on PWID.

METHODS

We used group concept mapping and a systems thinking approach to produce an expert stakeholder-generated, multi-level framework for monitoring changes in PWID health outcomes potentially attributable to COVID-19 in the U.S. This socio-ecological measurement framework elucidates proximal and distal contributors to infectious disease and overdose outcomes, many of which can be measured using existing data sources.

RESULTS

The framework includes multi-level components including policy considerations, drug supply/distribution systems, the service delivery landscape, network factors, and individual characteristics such as mental and general health status and service utilization. These components are generally mediated by substance use and sexual behavioral factors to cause changes in incidence of HIV, HCV, sexually transmitted infections, wound/skin infections, and overdose.

CONCLUSION

This measurement framework is intended to increase the quality and timeliness of research on the impacts of COVID-19 in the context of the current pandemic and future crises. Next steps include a ranking process to narrow the drivers of change in health risks to a concise set of indicators that adequately represent framework components, can be written as measurable indicators, and are quantifiable using existing data sources, as well as a publicly available web-based platform for summary data contributions.

Intersecting epidemics: the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 on the HIV prevention and care continua in the United States

OBJECTIVE

To summarize the broad impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on HIV prevention and care in the United States with a focus on the status-neutral HIV care continuum.

DESIGN

We conducted an editorial review of peer-reviewed literature on the topics of HIV-risk behaviors, sexually transmitted illness (STI) and HIV prevalence, HIV prevention and treatment trends, and evolving practices during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

For relevant literature, we reviewed, summarized, and categorized into themes that span the HIV prevention and care continua, including sexual risk behaviors, mental health, and substance use.

RESULTS

We identified important changes within each component of the HIV care continuum across the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic. Shifts in prevention practices, engagement with care, care provision, medication adherence, testing, and prevalence rates were observed during the pandemic.

CONCLUSION

Although heightened disparities for people at risk for, and living with, HIV were seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, many health systems and clinics have achieved and maintained engagement in HIV prevention and care. This review highlights barriers and innovative solutions that can support durable and accessible health systems through future public health crises.

Status of the HIV epidemic in key populations in the Middle East and north Africa: knowns and unknowns

The Middle East and north Africa is one of only two world regions where HIV incidence is on the rise, with most infections occurring among key populations: people who inject drugs, men who have sex with men, and female sex workers. In this Review, we show a trend of increasing HIV prevalence among the three key populations in the Middle East and north Africa. Although the epidemic continues at a low level in some countries or localities within a country, there is evidence for concentrated epidemics, with sustained transmission at considerable HIV prevalence among people who inject drugs and men who have sex with men in over half of countries in the region with data, and among female sex workers in several countries. Most epidemics emerged around 2003 or thereafter. The status of the epidemic among key populations remains unknown in several countries due to persistent data gaps. The HIV response in Middle East and north Africa remains far below global targets for prevention, testing, and treatment. It is hindered by underfunding, poor surveillance, and stigma, all of which are compounded by widespread conflict and humanitarian crises, and most recently, the advent of COVID-19. Investment is needed to put the region on track towards the target of eliminating HIV/AIDS as a global health threat by 2030. Reaching this target will not be possible without tailoring the response to the needs of key populations, while addressing, to the extent possible, the complex structural and operational barriers to success.

Economic Challenges and Behavioral and Mental Health Risks for Overdose during the COVID-19 Pandemic among People Who Inject Drugs

People who inject drugs (PWID) are a population that disproportionately struggles with economic and mental health challenges. However, despite numerous reports of people globally experiencing new or exacerbated economic and/or mental health challenges during the COVID-19 pandemic, the literature on the effect of the pandemic on PWID and their risk for harm (e.g., overdose) remains sparse. The present study will describe reported changes during the pandemic in risk factors for drug overdose (including changes in mental health symptoms and care access) among PWID in Chicago, and it will examine associations between such risk factor changes and the experience of economic challenges during the pandemic. Participants from an ongoing longitudinal study of young PWID from the Chicago suburbs and their injection risk network members (N = 138; mean age = 28.7 years) were interviewed about changes in their experiences, substance use behavior, and mental health since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Bivariate cross tabulations were computed of each "overdose risk factor" with experiences of economic challenges during the pandemic. Fisher's Exact Tests were used to assess statistical significance. Adjusted logistic regression models were also conducted that controlled for sociodemographic characteristics, for time elapsed since the start of the pandemic, and for pre-pandemic income, homelessness, and injection frequency. Over half of our sample reported using alone more than usual during the pandemic, and over 40% reported using more than usual and/or buying drugs that were of a decreased purity or quality. Additionally, a large proportion of our sample (52.5% of those asked) reported more difficulty than usual accessing mental health care. Experiencing loss of a source of income during the pandemic was associated with using more drugs, using alone more, using a larger amount of drugs while using alone, wanting to stop using but being unable, and difficulty accessing mental health care. The preliminary associations found by the present study suggest that economic challenges or disruptions experienced during the pandemic are likely to increase risk for overdose among PWID experiencing such challenges, via changes in the above behaviors and/or conditions that are associated with risk for overdose. Intervention efforts should therefore be focused not only directly on overdose prevention, but also on assisting PWID with their economic challenges and helping them regain economic stability and access to services that may have been impeded by financial difficulty.

COVID-19 Burden on HIV Patients Attending Antiretroviral Therapy in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: A Multicenter Cross-Sectional Study

Background

There has been promising progress toward screening, testing, and retaining patients with HIV in care in Ethiopia. Concern exists that possible disruptions in HIV programs due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) could result in a more HIV-related mortality and new HIV infections. This study aimed to investigate the real-time burden of COVID-19 on patients with HIV attending antiretroviral therapy.

Methods

We conducted a facility-based, multicenter, and cross-sectional study among patients with HIV attending antiretroviral therapy in 10 healthcare facilities in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, in the COVID-19 pandemic period. Data were collected using adapted, interviewer-based questionnaires, and entered into EpiInfo version 7 and exported to SPSS version 26 for analysis.

Result

A total of 212 patients with HIV were included. The participants who missed visits for refill were 58 (27.4%). When the effects of other independent variables on appointments/visits for refill were controlled, the following characteristics were found to be the most important predictors of missed appointments (p< 0.05): age ≥ 55 [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 6.73, 95% CI (1.495-30.310)], fear of COVID-19 [AOR = 24.93, 95% CI (2.798-222.279)], transport disruption [AOR = 4.90, 95% CI (1.031-23.174)], reduced income for traveling to a health facility [AOR = 5.64, 95% CI (1.234-25.812)], limited access to masks [AOR = 7.67, 95% CI (1.303-45.174)], sanitizer [AOR = 0.07, 95% CI (0.007-0.729)], and non-medical support [AOR = 2.32, 95% CI (1.547-12.596)]. The participants were well aware of the COVID-19 preventive measures. The most costly COVID-19 preventive measures that cause financial burden to the patients were the costs for buying face masks (63.7%), disinfectants (55.2%), and soap for handwashing (22.2%). The participants who missed follow-up diagnostic tests were 56 (26.4%). Variables, which were found to be statistically significant, include the following: age ≥ 55 [AOR = 0.22, 95% CI (0.076-0.621)], partial lockdown [AOR = 0.10, 95% CI (0.011-0.833)], limited access to health services [AOR = 0.15, 95% CI (0.045-0.475)], reduced income for traveling to health facility [AOR = 0.18, 95% CI (0.039-0.784)], and unable to get masks [AOR = 0.12, 95% CI (0.026-0.543)]. The participants who missed counseling services were 55 (25.9%). In multivariate logistic regression, the following were statistically significant: age ≥ 55 [AOR = 0.21, 95% CI (0.078-0.570)], fear of COVID-19 [AOR = 0.11, 95% CI (0.013-0.912)], reduced income [AOR = 0.17, 95% CI (0.041-0.699)], unable to get face masks [AOR = 0.19, 95% CI (0.039-0.959)], and partial lockdown [AOR = 0.08, 95% CI (0.008-0.790)].

Conclusions

The COVID-19 had a significant burden on patients with HIV to attend their routine clinical care and treatment, which may lead to treatment failure and drug resistance. The impact was on their appointments for medication refills and clinical and laboratory follow-ups. Targeted initiatives are needed to sustain HIV clinical care and treatment services and improve the well-being of people living with HIV.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus transmission by HIV Risk Group and Along the HIV Care Continuum: A Contrast of 6 US Cities

BACKGROUND

Understanding the sources of HIV transmission provides a basis for prioritizing HIV prevention resources in specific geographic regions and populations. This study estimated the number, proportion, and rate of HIV transmissions attributable to individuals along the HIV care continuum within different HIV transmission risk groups in 6 US cities.

METHODS

We used a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model that draws on racial behavior-specific or ethnic behavior-specific and risk behavior-specific linkage to HIV care and use of HIV prevention services from local, state, and national surveillance sources. We estimated the rate and number of HIV transmissions attributable to individuals in the stage of acute undiagnosed HIV, nonacute undiagnosed HIV, HIV diagnosed but antiretroviral therapy (ART) naïve, off ART, and on ART, stratified by HIV transmission group for the 2019 calendar year.

RESULTS

Individuals with undiagnosed nonacute HIV infection accounted for the highest proportion of total transmissions in every city, ranging from 36.8% (26.7%-44.9%) in New York City to 64.9% (47.0%-71.6%) in Baltimore. Individuals who had discontinued ART contributed to the second highest percentage of total infections in 4 of 6 cities. Individuals with acute HIV had the highest transmission rate per 100 person-years, ranging from 76.4 (58.9-135.9) in Miami to 160.2 (85.7-302.8) in Baltimore.

CONCLUSION

These findings underline the importance of both early diagnosis and improved ART retention for ending the HIV epidemic in the United States. Differences in the sources of transmission across cities indicate that localized priority setting to effectively address diverse microepidemics at different stages of epidemic control is necessary.

Potential Effects of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic on Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Transmission: A Modeling Study in 32 US Cities

BACKGROUND

The degree to which the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic will affect the US human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic is unclear.

METHODS

We used the Johns Hopkins Epidemiologic and Economic Model to project HIV infections from 2020 to 2025 in 32 US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). We sampled a range of effects of the pandemic on sexual transmission (0-50% reduction), viral suppression among people with HIV (0-40% reduction), HIV testing (0-50% reduction), and pre-exposure prophylaxis use (0-30% reduction), and indexed reductions over time to Google Community Mobility Reports.

RESULTS

Simulations projected reported diagnoses would drop in 2020 and rebound in 2021 or 2022, regardless of underlying incidence. If sexual transmission normalized by July 2021 and HIV care normalized by January 2022, we projected 1161 (1%) more infections from 2020 to 2025 across all 32 cities than if COVID-19 had not occurred. Among "optimistic" simulations in which sexual transmission was sharply reduced and viral suppression was maintained we projected 8% lower incidence (95% credible interval: 14% lower to no change). Among "pessimistic" simulations where sexual transmission was largely unchanged but viral suppression fell, we projected 11% higher incidence (1-21% higher). MSA-specific projections are available at www.jheem.org?covid.

CONCLUSIONS

The effects of COVID-19 on HIV transmission remain uncertain and differ between cities. Reported diagnoses of HIV in 2020-2021 are likely to correlate poorly with underlying incidence. Minimizing disruptions to HIV care is critical to mitigating negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV transmission.

What Will It Take to End HIV in the United States? : A Comprehensive, Local-Level Modeling Study

BACKGROUND

The Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) initiative aims to reduce incident HIV infections by 90% over a span of 10 years. The intensity of interventions needed to achieve this for local epidemics is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the effect of HIV interventions at the city level.

DESIGN

A compartmental model of city-level HIV transmission stratified by age, race, sex, and HIV risk factor was developed and calibrated.

SETTING

32 priority metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs).

PATIENTS

Simulated populations in each MSA.

INTERVENTION

Combinations of HIV testing and preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) coverage among those at risk for HIV, plus viral suppression in persons with diagnosed HIV infection.

MEASUREMENTS

The primary outcome was the projected reduction in incident cases from 2020 to 2030.

RESULTS

Absent intervention, HIV incidence was projected to decrease by 19% across all 32 MSAs. Modest increases in testing (1.25-fold per year), PrEP coverage (5 percentage points), and viral suppression (10 percentage points) across the population could achieve reductions of 34% to 67% by 2030. Twenty-five percent PrEP coverage, testing twice a year on average, and 90% viral suppression among young Black and Hispanic men who have sex with men (MSM) achieved similar reductions (13% to 68%). Including all MSM and persons who inject drugs could reduce incidence by 48% to 90%. Thirteen of 32 MSAs could achieve greater than 90% reductions in HIV incidence with large-scale interventions that include heterosexuals. A web application with location-specific results is publicly available (www.jheem.org).

LIMITATION

The COVID-19 pandemic was not represented.

CONCLUSION

Large reductions in HIV incidence are achievable with substantial investment, but the EHE goals will be difficult to achieve in most locations. An interactive model that can help policymakers maximize the effect in their local environments is presented.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institutes of Health.

COVID-19 Burden on HIV Patients Attending Antiretroviral Therapy in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: A Multicenter Cross-Sectional Study

Background

There has been promising progress towards screening, testing, and retaining HIV patients in care in Ethiopia. Concern exists that possible disruptions in HIV programs due to COVID-19 could result in more HIV-related mortality and new HIV infections. This study aimed to investigate the real-time burden of COVID-19 on HIV patients attending antiretroviral therapy.

Methods

We conducted a facility-based, multicentre, cross-sectional study among HIV patients attending antiretroviral therapy in 10 healthcare facilities in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, in the COVID-19 pandemic period. Data was collected using adapted, interviewer-based questionnaires, and entered into Epi Info version 7 and exported to SPSS version 26 for analysis.

Result

A total of 212 patients with HIV were included. Participants who missed visits for refill were 58 (27.4%). When the effects of other independent variables on appointments/visits for refill were controlled, the following characteristics were found to be the most important pridictors of missed appointments (P < 0.05): age ≥ 55 [AOR = 6.73, 95% CI (1.495–30.310)], fear of COVID-19 [AOR = 24.93, 95% CI (2.798-222.279)], transport disruption [AOR = 4.90, 95% CI (1.031–23.174)], reduced income for traveling to health facility [AOR = 5.64, 95% CI (1.234–25.812)], and limited access to mask [AOR = 7.67, 95% CI (1.303–45.174)], sanitizer [AOR = 0.07, 95% CI (0.007–0.729)] and non-medical support [AOR = 2.32, 95% CI (1.547–12.596)]. The participants were well aware of the COVID-19 preventive measures. The most costly COVID-19 preventive measures that cause financial burden to the patients were costs for buying facemasks (63.7%), disinfectants (55.2) and sops for handwashing (22.2). Participants who missed follow-up diagnostic tests were 56 (26.4%). Variables which were found to be statistically significant include the following: age ≥ 55 [AOR = 0.22, 95% CI (0.076–0.621)], partial lockdown [AOR = 0.10, 95% CI (0.011–0.833)], limited access to health services [AOR = 0.15, 95% CI (0.045–0.475)], reduced income for traveling to health facility [AOR = 0.18, 95% CI (0.039–0.784)], and unable to get mask [AOR = 0.12, 95% CI (0.026–0.543)]. Participants who missed counseling services were 55 (25.9%). In multivariate logistic regression the following were statisticaly significant: age ≥ 55 [AOR = 0.21, 95% CI (0.078–0.570)], fear of COVID-19 [AOR = 0.11, 95% CI (0.013–0.912)], reduced income [AOR = 0.17, 95% CI (0.041–0.699)], unable to get face mask [AOR = 0.19, 95%CI (0.039–0.959)], and partial lockdown [AOR = 0.08, 95% CI (0.008–0.790)].

Conclusions

COVID-19 had a significant burden on HIV patients to attend their routine clinical care and treatment, which may lead to treatment failure and drug resistance. The impact was on their appointments for medication refills and clinical and laboratory follow-ups. Targeted initiatives are needed to sustain HIV clinical care and treatment services and improve the wellbeing of people living with HIV.

The potential effect of COVID-19-related disruptions on HIV incidence and HIV-related mortality among men who have sex with men in the USA: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

During the COVID-19 pandemic, men who have sex with men (MSM) in the USA have reported similar or fewer sexual partners and reduced HIV testing and care access compared with before the pandemic. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use has also declined. We aimed to quantify the potential effect of COVID-19 on HIV incidence and HIV-related mortality among US MSM.

METHODS

We used a calibrated, deterministic, compartmental HIV transmission model for MSM in Baltimore (MD, USA) and available data on COVID-19-related disruptions to HIV services to predict effects of reductions in sexual partners (0%, 25%, 50%), condom use (5%), HIV testing (20%), viral suppression (10%), PrEP initiations (72%), PrEP adherence (9%), and antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiations (50%). In our main analysis, we modelled disruptions due to COVID-19 starting Jan 1, 2020, and lasting 6 months. We estimated the median change in cumulative new HIV infections and HIV-related deaths among MSM over 1 and 5 years, compared with a base case scenario without COVID-19-related disruptions.

FINDINGS

A 25% reduction in sexual partners for 6 months among MSM in Baltimore, without HIV service changes, could reduce new HIV infections by median 12·2% (95% credible interval 11·7 to 12·8) over 1 year and median 3·0% (2·6 to 3·4) over 5 years. In the absence of changes in sexual behaviour, the 6-month estimated reductions in condom use, HIV testing, viral suppression, PrEP initiations, PrEP adherence, and ART initiations combined are predicted to increase new HIV infections by median 10·5% (5·8 to 16·5) over 1 year, and by median 3·5% (2·1 to 5·4) over 5 years. Disruptions to ART initiations and viral suppression are estimated to substantially increase HIV-related deaths (ART initiations by median 1·7% [0·8 to 3·2], viral suppression by median 9·5% [5·2 to 15·9]) over 1 year, with smaller proportional increases over 5 years. The other individual disruptions (to HIV testing, PrEP and condom use, PrEP initiation, and partner numbers) were estimated to have little effect on HIV-related deaths (<1% change over 1 or 5 years). A 25% reduction in sexual partnerships is estimated to offset the effect of the combined service disruptions on new HIV infections (change over 1 year: median -3·9% [-7·4 to 1·0]; over 5 years: median 0·0% [-0·9 to 1·4]), but not on HIV deaths (change over 1 year: 11·0% [6·2 to 17·7]; over 5 years: 2·6% [1·5 to 4·3]).

INTERPRETATION

Maintaining access to ART and adherence support is of the utmost importance to maintain viral suppression and minimise excess HIV-related mortality due to COVID-19 restrictions in the USA, even if disruptions to services are accompanied by reductions in sexual partnerships.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health.

The impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on HIV care in 65 South African primary care clinics: an interrupted time series analysis

BACKGROUND

The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV outcomes in low-income and middle-income countries is poorly described. We aimed to measure the impact of the 2020 national COVID-19 lockdown on HIV testing and treatment in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, where 1·7 million people are living with HIV.

METHODS

In this interrupted time series analysis, we analysed anonymised programmatic data from 65 primary care clinics in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. We included data from people testing for HIV, initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART), and collecting ART at participating clinics during the study period, with no age restrictions. We used descriptive statistics to summarise demographic and clinical data, and present crude summaries of the main outcomes of numbers of HIV tests per month, ART initiations per week, and ART collection visits per week, before and after the national lockdown that began on March 27, 2020. We used Poisson segmented regression models to estimate the immediate impact of the lockdown on these outcomes, as well as post-lockdown trends.

FINDINGS

Between Jan 1, 2018, and July 31, 2020, we recorded 1 315 439 HIV tests. Between Jan 1, 2018, and June 15, 2020, we recorded 71 142 ART initiations and 2 319 992 ART collection visits. We recorded a median of 41 926 HIV tests per month before lockdown (January, 2018, to March, 2020; IQR 37 838-51 069) and a median of 38 911 HIV tests per month after lockdown (April, 2020, to July, 2020; IQR 32 699-42 756). In the Poisson regression model, taking into account long-term trends, lockdown was associated with an estimated 47·6% decrease in HIV testing in April, 2020 (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0·524, 95% CI 0·446-0·615). ART initiations decreased from a median of 571 per week before lockdown (IQR 498-678), to 375 per week after lockdown (331-399), with an estimated 46·2% decrease in the Poisson regression model in the first week of lockdown (March 30, 2020, to April 5, 2020; IRR 0·538, 0·459-0·630). There was no marked change in the number of ART collection visits (median 18 519 visits per week before lockdown [IQR 17 074-19 922] vs 17 863 visits per week after lockdown [17 509-18 995]; estimated effect in the first week of lockdown IRR 0·932, 95% CI 0·794-1·093). As restrictions eased, HIV testing and ART initiations gradually improved towards pre-lockdown levels (slope change 1·183/month, 95% CI 1·113-1·256 for HIV testing; 1·156/month, 1·085-1·230 for ART initiations).

INTERPRETATION

ART provision was generally maintained during the 2020 COVID-19 lockdown, but HIV testing and ART initiations were heavily impacted. Strategies to increase testing and treatment initiation should be implemented.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, Africa Oxford Initiative.

COVID-19 Outcomes Among Persons Living With or Without Diagnosed HIV Infection in New York State

Importance

New York State has been an epicenter for both the US coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and HIV/AIDS epidemics. Persons living with diagnosed HIV may be more prone to COVID-19 infection and severe outcomes, yet few studies have assessed this possibility at a population level.

Objective

To evaluate the association between HIV diagnosis and COVID-19 diagnosis, hospitalization, and in-hospital death in New York State.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study, conducted in New York State, including New York City, between March 1 and June 15, 2020, matched data from HIV surveillance, COVID-19 laboratory-confirmed diagnoses, and hospitalization databases to provide a full population-level comparison of COVID-19 outcomes between persons living with diagnosed HIV and persons living without diagnosed HIV.

Exposures

Diagnosis of HIV infection through December 31, 2019.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcomes were COVID-19 diagnosis, hospitalization, and in-hospital death. COVID-19 diagnoses, hospitalizations, and in-hospital death rates comparing persons living with diagnosed HIV with persons living without dianosed HIV were computed, with unadjusted rate ratios and indirect standardized rate ratios (sRR), adjusting for sex, age, and region. Adjusted rate ratios (aRRs) for outcomes specific to persons living with diagnosed HIV were assessed by age, sex, region, race/ethnicity, transmission risk, and CD4+ T-cell count-defined HIV disease stage, using Poisson regression models.

Results

A total of 2988 persons living with diagnosed HIV (2109 men [70.6%]; 2409 living in New York City [80.6%]; mean [SD] age, 54.0 [13.3] years) received a diagnosis of COVID-19. Of these persons living with diagnosed HIV, 896 were hospitalized and 207 died in the hospital through June 15, 2020. After standardization, persons living with diagnosed HIV and persons living without diagnosed HIV had similar diagnosis rates (sRR, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.91-0.97]), but persons living with diagnosed HIV were hospitalized more than persons living without diagnosed HIV, per population (sRR, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.29-1.47]) and among those diagnosed (sRR, 1.47 [95% CI, 1.37-1.56]). Elevated mortality among persons living with diagnosed HIV was observed per population (sRR, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.07-1.40]) and among those diagnosed (sRR, 1.30 [95% CI, 1.13-1.48]) but not among those hospitalized (sRR, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.83-1.09]). Among persons living with diagnosed HIV, non-Hispanic Black individuals (aRR, 1.59 [95% CI, 1.40-1.81]) and Hispanic individuals (aRR, 2.08 [95% CI, 1.83-2.37]) were more likely to receive a diagnosis of COVID-19 than White individuals, but they were not more likely to be hospitalized once they received a diagnosis or to die once hospitalized. Hospitalization risk increased with disease progression to HIV stage 2 (aRR, 1.29 [95% CI, 1.11-1.49]) and stage 3 (aRR, 1.69 [95% CI, 1.38-2.07]) relative to stage 1.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study, persons living with diagnosed HIV experienced poorer COVID-related outcomes relative to persons living without diagnosed HIV; Previous HIV diagnosis was associated with higher rates of severe disease requiring hospitalization, and hospitalization risk increased with progression of HIV disease stage.

Utilizing Policy and Electronic Health Record (EHR) System Modifications to Implement and Sustain Routine Opt-Out HIV Screening and Linkage to Care During the COVID-19 Pandemic

The burden of HIV infection disproportionately impacts Black people across the United States. New York City (NYC) has taken substantial steps to End the HIV Epidemic, boasting reductions in new HIV infections by 40% since 2015; however, racial inequities persist. In 2019, Black people living in NYC accounted for 24% of the population, yet represented 46.1% of new HIV diagnoses and 48.7% of HIV deaths. To address the high incidence of HIV in a predominately Black community in Central Brooklyn, Brookdale Hospital Medical Center (BHMC) developed a multi-faceted approach to increase routine opt-out HIV screening and linkage. In order to integrate HIV testing into routine clinical care, BHMC leadership updated screening policies; developed an Electronic Health Record (EHR) algorithm to trigger HIV screening in five BHMC ambulatory clinics; and modified the EHR to transmit positive HIV screening results to patient navigators dedicated to linking patients to HIV care. During the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, between March and April 2020, HIV screening across all five ambulatory sites decreased by 87.3%. After activation of the EHR algorithm in three ambulatory sites in June 2020, HIV screening increased 216.3% from the prior month. By the time the final EHR algorithm launched in August 2020, HIV testing had fully rebounded to pre-pandemic levels. Policies supporting routine opt-out HIV screening coupled with EHR-prompted screening can improve and sustain HIV testing in a Black community with a high incidence and prevalence of HIV.

Disparity in HIV Service Interruption in the Outbreak of COVID-19 in South Carolina

To examine HIV service interruptions during the COIVD-19 outbreak in South Carolina (SC) and identify geospatial and socioeconomic correlates of such interruptions, we collected qualitative, geospatial, and quantitative data from 27 Ryan White HIV clinics in SC in March, 2020. HIV service interruptions were categorized (none, minimal, partial, and complete interruption) and analyzed for geospatial heterogeneity. Nearly 56% of the HIV clinics were partially interrupted and 26% were completely closed. Geospatial heterogeneity of service interruption existed but did not exactly overlap with the geospatial pattern of COVID-19 outbreak. The percentage of uninsured in the service catchment areas was significantly correlated with HIV service interruption (F = 3.987, P = .02). This mixed-method study demonstrated the disparity of HIV service interruptions in the COVID-19 in SC and suggested a contribution of existing socioeconomic gaps to this disparity. These findings may inform the resources allocation and future strategies to respond to public health emergencies.

Estimating the potential impact of COVID-19-related disruptions on HIV incidence and mortality among men who have sex with men in the United States: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

During the COVID-19 pandemic, gay and other men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States (US) report similar or fewer sexual partners and reduced HIV testing and care access. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use has declined. We estimated the potential impact of COVID-19 on HIV incidence and mortality among US MSM.

METHODS

We used a calibrated HIV transmission model for MSM in Baltimore, Maryland, and available data on COVID-19-related disruptions to predict impacts of data-driven reductions in sexual partners(0%,25%,50%), condom use(5%), HIV testing(20%), viral suppression(10%), PrEP initiations(72%), PrEP use(9%) and ART initiations(50%), exploring different disruption durations and magnitudes. We estimated the median (95% credible interval) change in cumulative new HIV infections and deaths among MSM over one and five years, compared with a scenario without COVID-19-related disruptions.

FINDINGS

A six-month 25% reduction in sexual partners among Baltimore MSM, without HIV service changes, could reduce new HIV infections by 12·2%(11·7,12·8%) and 3·0%(2·6,3·4%) over one and five years, respectively. In the absence of changes in sexual behaviour, the six-month data-driven disruptions to condom use, testing, viral suppression, PrEP initiations, PrEP use and ART initiations combined were predicted to increase new HIV infections by 10·5%(5·8,16·5%) over one year, and by 3·5%(2·1,5·4%) over five years. A 25% reduction in partnerships offsets the negative impact of these combined service disruptions on new HIV infections (overall reduction 3·9%(-1·0,7·4%), 0·0%(-1·4,0·9%) over one, five years, respectively), but not on HIV deaths (corresponding increases 11·0%(6·2,17·7%), 2·6%(1·5,4·3%)). The predicted impacts of reductions in partnerships or viral suppression doubled if they lasted 12 months or if disruptions were twice as large.

INTERPRETATION

Maintaining access to ART and adherence support is of the utmost importance to minimise excess HIV-related mortality due to COVID-19 restrictions in the US, even if accompanied by reductions in sexual partnerships.

FUNDING

NIH.

RESEARCH IN CONTEXT

Evidence before this study: The COVID-19 pandemic and responses to it have disrupted HIV prevention and treatment services and led to changes in sexual risk behaviour in the United States, but the overall potential impact on HIV transmission and HIV-related mortality is not known. We searched PubMed for articles documenting COVID-related disruptions to HIV prevention and treatment and changes in sexual risk behaviour in the United States, published between 1 st January and 7 th October 2020, with no language restrictions, using the terms COVID* AND (HIV OR AIDS) AND ("United States" OR US). We identified three cross-sectional surveys assessing changes in sexual risk behaviour among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States, one finding a reduction, one a slight increase, and one no change in partner numbers during COVID-19 restrictions. Two of these studies also found reductions in reported HIV testing, HIV care and/or access to pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among MSM due to COVID-19. A separate study from a San Francisco clinic found declines in viral suppression among its clients during lockdown. We searched PubMed for articles estimating the impact of COVID-related disruptions on HIV transmission and mortality published between 1 st January 2020 and 12 th October 2020, with no language restrictions, using the following terms: COVID* AND model* AND (HIV OR AIDS). We identified two published studies which had used mathematical modelling to estimate the impact of hypothetical COVID-19-related disruptions to HIV programmes on HIV-related deaths and/or new HIV infections in Africa, another published study using modelling to estimate the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions and linked HIV and SARS-CoV-2 testing on new HIV infections in six cities in the United States, and a pre-print reporting modelling of the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions on HIV incidence among men who have sex with men in Atlanta, United States. None of these studies were informed by data on the size of these disruptions. The two African studies and the Atlanta study assessed the impact of disruptions to different healthcare disruptions separately, and all found that the greatest negative impacts on new HIV infections and/or deaths would arise from interruptions to antiretroviral therapy. They all found smaller effects on HIV-related mortality and/or incidence from other healthcare disruptions, including HIV testing, PrEP use and condom supplies. The United States study assessing the impact of linked HIV and SARS-CoV-2 testing estimated that this could substantially reduce HIV incidence. Added value of this study: We used mathematical modelling to derive estimates of the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated restrictions on HIV incidence and mortality among MSM in the United States, directly informed by data from the United States on disruptions to HIV testing, antiretroviral therapy and pre-exposure prophylaxis services and reported changes in sexual risk behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic. We also assessed the impact of an HIV testing campaign during COVID-19 lockdown.Implications of all the available evidence: In the United States, maintaining access to antiretroviral therapy and adherence support for both existing and new users will be crucial to minimize excess HIV-related deaths arising from the COVID-19 pandemic among men who have sex with men. While reductions in sexual risk behaviour may offset increases in new HIV infections arising from disruptions to HIV prevention and treatment services, this will not offset the additional HIV-related deaths which are also predicted to occur. There are mixed findings on the impact of an HIV testing campaign among US MSM during COVID-19 lockdown. Together, these studies highlight the importance of maintaining effective HIV treatment provision during the COVID-19 pandemic.