Modeling Long-term Vaccination Strategies With MenAfriVac in the African Meningitis Belt

Meningococcal A conjugate vaccine coverage in the meningitis belt of Africa from 2010 to 2021: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

As of the end of 2021, twenty-four countries in the African meningitis belt have rolled out mass campaigns of MenAfriVac®, a meningococcal A conjugate vaccine (MACV) first introduced in 2010. Twelve have completed introduction of MACV into routine immunisation (RI) schedules. Although select post-campaign coverage data are published, no study currently comprehensively estimates MACV coverage from both routine and campaign sources in the meningitis belt across age, country, and time.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we assembled campaign data from the twenty-four countries that had introduced any immunisation activity during or before the year 2021 (Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Eritrea, the Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Kenya, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, South Sudan, Sudan, Togo and Uganda) via WHO reports and RI data via systematic review. Next, we modelled RI coverage using Spatiotemporal Gaussian Process Regression. Then, we synthesized these estimates with campaign data into a cohort model, tracking coverage for each age cohort from age 1 to 29 years over time for each country.

FINDINGS

Coverage in high-risk locations amongst children aged 1-4 in 2021 was estimated to be highest in Togo with 96.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 92.0-99.0), followed by Niger with 87.2% (95% UI 85.3-89.0) and Burkina Faso, with 86.4% (95% UI 85.1-87.6). These countries had high coverage values driven by an initial successful mass immunisation campaign, followed by a catch-up campaign, followed by introduction of RI. Due to the influence of older mass vaccination campaigns, coverage proportions skewed higher in the 1-29 age group than the 1-4 group, with a median coverage of 82.9% in 2021 in the broader age group compared to 45.6% in the narrower age group.

INTERPRETATION

These estimates highlight where gaps in immunisation remain and emphasise the need for broader efforts to strengthen RI systems. This methodological framework can be applied to estimate coverage for any vaccine that has been delivered in both routine and supplemental immunisation activities.

FUNDING

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

COVID-19 impact on routine immunisations for vaccine-preventable diseases: Projecting the effect of different routes to recovery

Over the past two decades, vaccination programmes for vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) have expanded across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, the rise of COVID-19 resulted in global disruption to routine immunisation activities. Such disruptions could have a detrimental effect on public health, leading to more deaths from VPDs, particularly without mitigation efforts. Hence, as routine immunisation activities resume, it is important to estimate the effectiveness of different approaches for recovery. We apply an impact extrapolation method developed by the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium to estimate the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions with different recovery scenarios for ten VPDs across 112 LMICs. We focus on deaths averted due to routine immunisations occurring in the years 2020–2030 and investigate two recovery scenarios relative to a no-COVID-19 scenario. In the recovery scenarios, we assume a 10% COVID-19-related drop in routine immunisation coverage in the year 2020. We then linearly interpolate coverage to the year 2030 to investigate two routes to recovery, whereby the immunization agenda (IA2030) targets are reached by 2030 or fall short by 10%. We estimate that falling short of the IA2030 targets by 10% leads to 11.26% fewer fully vaccinated persons (FVPs) and 11.34% more deaths over the years 2020–2030 relative to the no-COVID-19 scenario, whereas, reaching the IA2030 targets reduces these proportions to 5% fewer FVPs and 5.22% more deaths. The impact of the disruption varies across the VPDs with diseases where coverage expands drastically in future years facing a smaller detrimental effect. Overall, our results show that drops in routine immunisation coverage could result in more deaths due to VPDs. As the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions is dependent on the vaccination coverage that is achieved over the coming years, the continued efforts of building up coverage and addressing gaps in immunity are vital in the road to recovery.

Evaluating the Impact of Meningococcal Vaccines With Synthetic Controls

Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) has a low and unpredictable incidence, presenting challenges for real-world evaluations of meningococcal vaccines. Traditionally, meningococcal vaccine impact is evaluated by predicting counterfactuals from pre-immunization IMD incidences, possibly controlling for IMD in unvaccinated age groups, but the selection of controls can influence results. We retrospectively applied a synthetic control (SC) method, previously used for pneumococcal disease, to data from 2 programs for immunization of infants against serogroups B and C IMD in England and Brazil. Time series of infectious/noninfectious diseases in infants and IMD cases in older unvaccinated age groups were used as candidate controls, automatically combined in a SC through Bayesian variable selection. SC closely predicted IMD in absence of vaccination, adjusting for nontrivial changes in IMD incidence. Vaccine impact estimates were in line with previous assessments. IMD cases in unvaccinated age groups were the most frequent SC-selected controls. Similar results were obtained when excluding IMD from control sets and using other diseases only, particularly respiratory diseases and measles. Using non-IMD controls may be important where there are herd immunity effects. SC is a robust and flexible method that addresses uncertainty introduced when equally plausible controls exhibit different post-immunization behaviors, allowing objective comparisons of IMD programs between countries.

Disease transmission and mass gatherings: a case study on meningococcal infection during Hajj

Background

Mass gatherings can not only trigger major outbreaks on-site but also facilitate global spread of infectious pathogens. Hajj is one of the largest mass gathering events worldwide where over two million pilgrims from all over the world gather annually creating intense congestion.

Methods

We developed a meta-population model to represent the transmission dynamics of Neisseria meningitidis and the impact of Hajj pilgrimage on the risk of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) for pilgrims population, local population at the Hajj site and country of origin of Hajj pilgrims. This model was calibrated using data on IMD over 17 years (1995–2011) and further used to simulate potential changes in vaccine policy and endemic conditions.

Results

The effect of increased density of contacts during Hajj was estimated to generate a 78-fold increase in disease transmission that impacts not only pilgrims but also the local population. Quadrivalent ACWY vaccination was found to be very effective in reducing the risk of outbreak during Hajj. Hajj has more limited impact on IMD transmission and exportation in the pilgrim countries of origin, although not negligible given the size of the population considered.

Conclusion

The analysis performed highlighted the amplifying effect of mass gathering on N. meningitidis transmission and confirm vaccination as a very effective preventive measure to mitigate outbreak risks.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07234-4.

Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world

Background

Vaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and yellow fever over the years 2000-2030 across 112 countries.

Methods

Twenty-one mathematical models estimated disease burden using standardised demographic and immunisation data. Impact was attributed to the year of vaccination through vaccine-activity-stratified impact ratios.

Results

We estimate 97 (95%CrI[80, 120]) million deaths would be averted due to vaccination activities over 2000-2030, with 50 (95%CrI[41, 62]) million deaths averted by activities between 2000 and 2019. For children under-5 born between 2000 and 2030, we estimate 52 (95%CrI[41, 69]) million more deaths would occur over their lifetimes without vaccination against these diseases.

Conclusions

This study represents the largest assessment of vaccine impact before COVID-19-related disruptions and provides motivation for sustaining and improving global vaccination coverage in the future.

Funding

VIMC is jointly funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) (BMGF grant number: OPP1157270 / INV-009125). Funding from Gavi is channelled via VIMC to the Consortium's modelling groups (VIMC-funded institutions represented in this paper: Imperial College London, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Public Health England, Johns Hopkins University, The Pennsylvania State University, Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Kaiser Permanente Washington, University of Cambridge, University of Notre Dame, Harvard University, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Emory University, National University of Singapore). Funding from BMGF was used for salaries of the Consortium secretariat (authors represented here: TBH, MJ, XL, SE-L, JT, KW, NMF, KAMG); and channelled via VIMC for travel and subsistence costs of all Consortium members (all authors). We also acknowledge funding from the UK Medical Research Council and Department for International Development, which supported aspects of VIMC's work (MRC grant number: MR/R015600/1).JHH acknowledges funding from National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship; Richard and Peggy Notebaert Premier Fellowship from the University of Notre Dame. BAL acknowledges funding from NIH/NIGMS (grant number R01 GM124280) and NIH/NIAID (grant number R01 AI112970). The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) receives funding support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.This paper was compiled by all coauthors, including two coauthors from Gavi. Other funders had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report. All authors had full access to all the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication.

Impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to measles, meningococcal A, and yellow fever vaccination in 10 countries

Background

Childhood immunisation services have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. WHO recommends considering outbreak risk using epidemiological criteria when deciding whether to conduct preventive vaccination campaigns during the pandemic.

Methods

We used two to three models per infection to estimate the health impact of 50% reduced routine vaccination coverage in 2020 and delay of campaign vaccination from 2020 to 2021 for measles vaccination in Bangladesh, Chad, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Sudan, for meningococcal A vaccination in Burkina Faso, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria, and for yellow fever vaccination in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ghana, and Nigeria. Our counterfactual comparative scenario was sustaining immunisation services at coverage projections made prior to COVID-19 (i.e. without any disruption).

Results

Reduced routine vaccination coverage in 2020 without catch-up vaccination may lead to an increase in measles and yellow fever disease burden in the modelled countries. Delaying planned campaigns in Ethiopia and Nigeria by a year may significantly increase the risk of measles outbreaks (both countries did complete their supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs) planned for 2020). For yellow fever vaccination, delay in campaigns leads to a potential disease burden rise of >1 death per 100,000 people per year until the campaigns are implemented. For meningococcal A vaccination, short-term disruptions in 2020 are unlikely to have a significant impact due to the persistence of direct and indirect benefits from past introductory campaigns of the 1- to 29-year-old population, bolstered by inclusion of the vaccine into the routine immunisation schedule accompanied by further catch-up campaigns.

Conclusions

The impact of COVID-19-related disruption to vaccination programs varies between infections and countries. Planning and implementation of campaigns should consider country and infection-specific epidemiological factors and local immunity gaps worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic when prioritising vaccines and strategies for catch-up vaccination.

Funding

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.

Understanding the Role of Duration of Vaccine Protection with MenAfriVac: Simulating Alternative Vaccination Strategies

We previously developed a transmission dynamic model of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A (NmA) with the aim of forecasting the relative benefits of different immunisation strategies with MenAfriVac. Our findings suggested that the most effective strategy in maintaining disease control was the introduction of MenAfriVac into the Expanded Programme on Immunisation (EPI). This strategy is currently being followed by the countries of the meningitis belt. Since then, the persistence of vaccine-induced antibodies has been further studied and new data suggest that immune response is influenced by the age at vaccination. Here, we aim to investigate the influence of both the duration and age-specificity of vaccine-induced protection on our model predictions and explore how the optimal vaccination strategy may change in the long-term. We adapted our previous model and considered plausible alternative immunization strategies, including the addition of a booster dose to the current schedule, as well as the routine vaccination of school-aged children for a range of different assumptions regarding the duration of protection. To allow for a comparison between the different strategies, we use several metrics, including the median age of infection, the number of people needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one case, the age distribution of cases for each strategy, as well as the time it takes for the number of cases to start increasing after the honeymoon period (resurgence). None of the strategies explored in this work is superior in all respects. This is especially true when vaccine-induced protection is the same regardless of the age at vaccination. Uncertainty in the duration of protection is important. For duration of protection lasting for an average of 18 years or longer, the model predicts elimination of NmA cases. Assuming that vaccine protection is more durable for individuals vaccinated after the age of 5 years, routine immunization of older children would be more efficient in reducing disease incidence and would also result in a fewer number of doses necessary to prevent one case. Assuming that elimination does not occur, adding a booster dose is likely to prevent most cases but the caveat will be a more costly intervention. These results can be used to understand important sources of uncertainty around MenAfriVac and support decisions by policymakers.

Meningococcal carriage 7 years after introduction of a serogroup A meningococcal conjugate vaccine in Burkina Faso: results from four cross-sectional carriage surveys

BACKGROUND

In the first 2 years after a nationwide mass vaccination campaign of 1-29-year-olds with a meningococcal serogroup A conjugate vaccine (MenAfriVac) in Burkina Faso, carriage and disease due to serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis were nearly eliminated. We aimed to assess the long-term effect of MenAfriVac vaccination on meningococcal carriage and herd immunity.

METHODS

We did four cross-sectional studies of meningococcal carriage in people aged 9 months to 36 years in two districts of Burkina Faso between May 2, 2016, and Nov 6, 2017. Demographic information and oropharyngeal swabs were collected. Meningococcal isolates were characterised using whole-genome sequencing.

FINDINGS

Of 14 295 eligible people, 13 758 consented and had specimens collected and laboratory results available, 1035 of whom were meningococcal carriers. Accounting for the complex survey design, prevalence of meningococcal carriage was 7·60% (95% CI 5·67-9·52), including 6·98% (4·86-9·11) non-groupable, 0·48% (0·01-0·95) serogroup W, 0·10% (0·01-0·18) serogroup C, 0·03% (0·00-0·80) serogroup E, and 0% serogroup A. Prevalence ranged from 5·44% (95% CI 4·18-6·69) to 9·14% (6·01-12·27) by district, from 4·67% (2·71-6·64) to 11·17% (6·75-15·59) by round, and from 3·39% (0·00-8·30) to 10·43% (8·08-12·79) by age group. By clonal complex, 822 (88%) of 934 non-groupable isolates were CC192, all 83 (100%) serogroup W isolates were CC11, and nine (69%) of 13 serogroup C isolates were CC10217.

INTERPRETATION

Our results show the continued effect of MenAfriVac on serogroup A meningococcal carriage, for at least 7 years, among vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts. Carriage prevalence of epidemic-prone serogroup C CC10217 and serogroup W CC11 was low. Continued monitoring of N meningitidis carriage will be crucial to further assess the effect of MenAfriVac and inform the vaccination strategy for future multivalent meningococcal vaccines.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.

The environmental drivers of bacterial meningitis epidemics in the Democratic Republic of Congo, central Africa

INTRODUCTION

Bacterial meningitis still constitutes an important threat in Africa. In the meningitis belt, a clear seasonal pattern in the incidence of meningococcal disease during the dry season has been previously correlated with several environmental parameters like dust and sand particles as well as the Harmattan winds. In parallel, the evidence of seasonality in meningitis dynamics and its environmental variables remain poorly studied outside the meningitis belt. This study explores several environmental factors associated with meningitis cases in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), central Africa, outside the meningitis belt area.

METHODS

Non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis' tests were used to establish the difference between the different health zones, climate and vegetation types in relation to both the number of cases and attack rates for the period 2000-2018. The relationships between the number of meningitis cases for the different health zones and environmental and socio-economical parameters collected were modeled using different generalized linear (GLMs) and generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), and different error structure in the different models, i.e., Poisson, binomial negative, zero-inflated binomial negative and more elaborated multi-hierarchical zero-inflated binomial negative models, with randomization of certain parameters or factors (health zones, vegetation and climate types). Comparing the different statistical models, the model with the smallest Akaike's information criterion (AIC) were selected as the best ones. 515 different health zones from 26 distinct provinces were considered for the construction of the different GLM and GLMM models.

RESULTS

Non-parametric bivariate statistics showed that there were more meningitis cases in urban health zones than in rural conditions (χ2 = 6.910, p-value = 0.009), in areas dominated by savannah landscape than in areas with dense forest or forest in mountainous areas (χ2 = 15.185, p-value = 0.001), and with no significant difference between climate types (χ2 = 1.211, p-value = 0,449). Additionally, no significant difference was observed for attack rate between the two types of heath zones (χ2 = 0.982, p-value = 0.322). Conversely, strong differences in attack rate values were obtained for vegetation types (χ2 = 13.627, p-value = 0,001) and climate types (χ2 = 13.627, p-value = 0,001). This work demonstrates that, all other parameters kept constant, an urban health zone located at high latitude and longitude eastwards, located at low-altitude like in valley ecosystems predominantly covered by savannah biome, with a humid tropical climate are at higher risk for the development of meningitis. In addition, the regions with mean range temperature and a population with a low index of economic well-being (IEW) constitute the perfect conditions for the development of meningitis in DRC.

CONCLUSION

In a context of global environmental change, particularly climate change, our findings tend to show that an interplay of different environmental and socio-economic drivers are important to consider in the epidemiology of bacterial meningitis epidemics in DRC. This information is important to help improving meningitis control strategies in a large country located outside of the so-called meningitis belt.

Mathematical modeling and analysis of meningococcal meningitis transmission dynamics

Meningococcal meningitis (MCM) is one of the serious public health threats in the tropical and sub-tropical regions. In this paper, we propose an epidemic model to study the transmission dynamics of MCM with high- and low-risk susceptible populations. The model considers two different groups of susceptible individuals depending on the availability of medical resources (MR, including hospitals, health workers, etc.), which varies the infection risk. We find that the model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation (BB), which increases the difficulty of MCM control since the dynamics are not merely relying on the basic reproduction number, [Formula: see text]. This study explores the effects of MR on the MCM epidemics by mathematical analysis and shows the existence of BB on MCM disease. Our findings suggest that providing adequate MR in a community is crucial in mitigating MCM incidences and deaths, especially, in the MCM endemic regions.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Serogroup C Meningococcal Meningitis Spread in Niger and Nigeria and Implications for Epidemic Response

BACKGROUND

After the re-emergence of serogroup C meningococcal meningitis (MM) in Nigeria and Niger, we aimed to re-evaluate the vaccination policy used to respond to outbreaks of MM in the African meningitis belt by investigating alternative strategies using a lower incidence threshold and information about neighboring districts.

METHODS

We used data on suspected and laboratory-confirmed cases in Niger and Nigeria from 2013 to 2017. We calculated global and local Moran's I-statistics to identify spatial clustering of districts with high MM incidence. We used a Pinner model to estimate the impact of vaccination campaigns occurring between 2015 and 2017 and to evaluate the impact of 3 alternative district-level vaccination strategies, compared with that currently used.

RESULTS

We found significant clustering of high incidence districts in every year, with local clusters around Tambuwal, Nigeria in 2013 and 2014, Niamey, Niger in 2016, and in Sokoto and Zamfara States in Nigeria in 2017.We estimate that the vaccination campaigns implemented in 2015, 2016, and 2017 prevented 6% of MM cases. Using the current strategy but with high coverage (85%) and timely distribution (4 weeks), these campaigns could have prevented 10% of cases. This strategy required the fewest doses of vaccine to prevent a case. None of the alternative strategies we evaluated were more efficient, but they would have prevented the occurrence of more cases overall.

CONCLUSIONS

Although we observed significant spatial clustering in MM in Nigeria and Niger between 2013 and 2017, there is no strong evidence to support a change in methods for epidemic response in terms of lowering the intervention threshold or targeting neighboring districts for reactive vaccination.

Status of the Rollout of the Meningococcal Serogroup A Conjugate Vaccine in African Meningitis Belt Countries in 2018

BACKGROUND

A novel meningococcal serogroup A conjugate vaccine (MACV [MenAfriVac]) was developed as part of efforts to prevent frequent meningitis outbreaks in the African meningitis belt. The MACV was first used widely and with great success, beginning in December 2010, during initial deployment in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. Since then, MACV rollout has continued in other countries in the meningitis belt through mass preventive campaigns and, more recently, introduction into routine childhood immunization programs associated with extended catch-up vaccinations.

METHODS

We reviewed country reports on MACV campaigns and routine immunization data reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for Africa from 2010 to 2018, as well as country plans for MACV introduction into routine immunization programs.

RESULTS

By the end of 2018, 304 894 726 persons in 22 of 26 meningitis belt countries had received MACV through mass preventive campaigns targeting individuals aged 1-29 years. Eight of these countries have introduced MACV into their national routine immunization programs, including 7 with catch-up vaccinations for birth cohorts born after the initial rollout. The Central African Republic introduced MACV into its routine immunization program immediately after the mass 1- to 29-year-old vaccinations in 2017 so no catch-up was needed.

CONCLUSIONS

From 2010 to 2018, successful rollout of MACV has been recorded in 22 countries through mass preventive campaigns followed by introduction into routine immunization programs in 8 of these countries. Efforts continue to complete MACV introduction in the remaining meningitis belt countries to ensure long-term herd protection.

Optimal Control Analysis of Pneumonia and Meningitis Coinfection

In this paper, we proposed a deterministic model of pneumonia-meningitis coinfection. We used a system of seven ordinary differential equations. Firstly, the qualitative behaviours of the model such as positivity of the solution, existence of the solution, the equilibrium points, basic reproduction number, analysis of equilibrium points, and sensitivity analysis are studied. The disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is kept less than unity, and conditions for global stability are established. Then, the basic model is extended to optimal control by incorporating four control interventions, such as prevention of pneumonia as well as meningitis and also treatment of pneumonia and meningitis diseases. The optimality system is obtained by using Pontryagin's maximum principle. For simulation of the optimality system, we proposed five strategies to check the effect of the controls. First, we consider prevention only for both diseases, and the result shows that applying prevention control has a great impact in bringing down the expansion of pneumonia, meningitis, and their coinfection in the specified period of time. The other strategies are prevention effort for pneumonia and treatment effort for meningitis, prevention effort for meningitis and treatment effort for pneumonia, treatment effort for both diseases, and using all interventions. We obtained that each of the listed strategies is effective in minimizing the expansion of pneumonia-only, meningitis-only, and coinfectious population in the specified period of time.

Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Uses of Polyvalent Meningococcal Vaccines in Niger: An Agent-Based Transmission Modeling Study

Background. Despite the introduction of an effective serogroup A conjugate vaccine (MenAfriVac™), sporadic epidemics of other Neisseria meningitidis serogroups remain a concern in Africa. Polyvalent meningococcal conjugate (PMC) vaccines may offer alternatives to current strategies that rely on routine infant vaccination with MenAfriVac plus, in the event of an epidemic, district-specific reactive campaigns using polyvalent meningococcal polysaccharide (PMP) vaccines. Methods. We developed an agent-based transmission model of N. meningitidis in Niger to compare the health effects and costs of current vaccination practice and 3 alternatives. Each alternative replaces MenAfriVac in the infant vaccination series with PMC and either replaces PMP with PMC for reactive campaigns or implements a one-time catch up campaign with PMC for children and young adults. Results. Over a 28-year period, replacement of MenAfriVac with PMC in the infant immunization series and of PMP in reactive campaigns would avert 63% of expected cases (95% prediction interval 49%-75%) if elimination of serogroup A is not followed by serogroup replacement. At a PMC price of $4/dose, this would cost $1412 ($81-$3510) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. If serogroup replacement occurs, the cost-effectiveness of this strategy improves to $662 (cost-saving, $2473) per DALY averted. Sensitivity analyses accounting for incomplete laboratory confirmation suggest that a catch-up PMC campaign would also meet standard cost-effectiveness thresholds. Limitations. The assumption that polyvalent vaccines offer similar protection against all serogroups is simplifying. Conclusions. The use of PMC vaccines to replace MenAfriVac in routine infant immunization and in district-specific reactive campaigns would have important health benefits and is likely to be cost-effective in Niger. An additional PMC catch-up campaign would also be cost-effective if we account for incomplete laboratory reporting.

Serogroup-specific meningococcal carriage by age group: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

Neisseria meningitidis carriage prevalence has known variation across the lifespan, but it is unclear whether carriage varies among meningococcal capsular groups. Therefore, we aimed to characterise group-specific meningococcal carriage by age group and world region from 2007 to 2016.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health Database, WHO Global Health Library, Web of Science, Current Contents Connects, China National Knowledge Infrastructure and Wanfang were systematically searched. Database searches were conducted through July 2018 and Google Scholar forward searches of included studies were conducted through August 2018. References of included studies and relevant conference abstracts were also searched to identify additional articles for inclusion.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Studies were eligible for inclusion if they reported capsular group-specific meningococcal carriage in a healthy population of a specified age group and geographical region. For this review, only studies conducted between 2007 and 2016 were included.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Data were independently extracted by two authors into Microsoft Access. Studies were assessed for risk of bias using the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Checklist for Studies Reporting Prevalence Data. Studies eligible for inclusion in quantitative analyses by pre-specified age groups were pooled using random effects meta-analyses. Results are reported by capsular group, age group and WHO region. Where meta-analyses were not appropriate, study results were discussed narratively.

RESULTS

7511 articles were identified and 65 were eligible for inclusion. Adolescents and young adults were the focus of many studies (n=24), especially in the Americas and Europe. Studies from China and Africa, typically, included data from a wider age range. The overall carriage prevalence varied markedly by age group and region. Based on the available data, 21 studies were included in meta-analyses reporting serogroup carriage for: all ages in Africa, 18-24-year olds in the Americas, and 11-17 and 18-24-year olds in Europe. Capsular groups W, X, Y and 'other' (non-ABCWXY, including non-groupable) were the most prevalent in Africa, and 5-17-year olds had higher carriage prevalence than other age groups. 'Other' serogroups (11.5%, 95% CI 1.6% to 16.1%) were the most common among 18-24-year olds from the Americas. In Europe, 18-24-year old were carriers more frequently than 11-17-year olds, and groups B (5.0%, 95% CI 3.0% to 7.5%), Y (3.9%, 95% CI 1.3% to 7.8%) and 'other' (6.4%, 95% CI 3.1% to 10.8%) were the most commonly carried in the older age group.

CONCLUSIONS

Of the age groups included in the analysis, carriage patterns by age were similar across capsular groups within a region but differed between regions. Data gaps remain for age- and capsular group-specific carriage in many regions, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean and South-East Asia. As such, clear and robust conclusions about the variation of capsular group-specific carriage by age group and WHO region were unable to be determined.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42017074671.

Kinetics of maternally-derived serogroup A, C, Y and W-specific meningococcal immunoglobulin G in Malian women and infants

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Immunisation with MCV during pregnancy resulted in an antibody response.

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Maternal immunization with MCV conveyed protective levels of MenA IgG at birth.

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Infant antibody levels declined over the first 3 months of life.

A prospective, randomised, controlled observer-blind trial measuring the efficacy and immunogenicity of trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) and the immunogenicity of quadrivalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine (MCV) in pregnant women and their infants up to 6 months of age was conducted in Mali. Here we reported the immunogenicity of MCV, which was used as a comparator vaccine to TIV, in this population. Third-trimester pregnant Malian women were randomized to receive TIV or MCV. Blood samples were collected from women prior to vaccination, 28 days post-vaccination, at delivery and 3 and 6 months post-delivery and from infants at birth and 3 and 6 months of age. Meningococcal-specific serogroup (Men) A, C, Y and W-specific antibodies were measured by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay in a randomly selected subset of 50 mother-infant pairs where the mother had received MCV. At birth, 94.0% (47/50) of infants had MenA specific IgG levels ≥ 2 µg/mL decreasing to 72.9% and 30.4% at 3 and 6 months of age. For MenC, 81.3% (39/48) of infants had MenC specific IgG levels ≥ 2 µg/mL at birth decreasing to 29.4% and 17.8% at 3 and 6 months of age. For MenY, 89.6% (43/48) of infants had MenY specific IgG levels ≥ 2 µg/mL at birth decreasing to 64.6% and 62.5% at 3 and 6 months of age. For MenW, 89.6% (43/48) of infants had MenW specific IgG levels ≥ 2 μg/ml at birth decreasing to 62.5% and 41.7% at 3 and 6 months of age.

Maternal immunization with MCV conveyed protective levels of IgG at birth through to 3 months of age in the majority of infants.

Antibody kinetics following vaccination with MenAfriVac: an analysis of serological data from randomised trials

BACKGROUND

A meningococcal group A conjugate vaccine, PsA-TT (also known as MenAfriVac), was developed with the support of the Meningitis Vaccine Project. Around 280 million individuals aged 1-29 years have been immunised across the African meningitis belt. We analysed the kinetics of vaccine-induced antibody response and assessed the possible implications for duration of protection.

METHODS

We obtained data from two longitudinal studies done in The Gambia, Mali, and Senegal of antibody responses in 193 children aged 12-23 months and 604 participants aged 2-29 years following MenAfriVac vaccination. Antibodies were measured using two methods: group A serum bactericidal antibody (SBA) assay and group A-specific IgG ELISA. Data on antibody responses were analysed using a mixed-effects statistical model accounting for the mean response and variation in patterns of antibody kinetics. Determinants of antibody duration were investigated using regression analysis.

FINDINGS

In children age 12-23 months, the reduction in MenAfriVac-induced antibody levels assessed by SBA titres had two phases: with 97·0% (95% credible interval [CrI] 95·1-98·3) of the response being short lived and decaying within the first 6 months and the remainder being long lived and decaying with a half-life of 2690 days (95% CrI 1016-15 078). Antibody levels assessed by SBA titres in participants aged 2-29 years were more persistent, with 95·0% (85·7-98·1) of the response being short lived, and the long lived phase decaying with a half-life of 6007 days (95% CrI 2826-14 279). Greater pre-vaccination antibody levels were associated with greater immunogenicity following vaccination, as well as greater antibody persistence. Despite rapid antibody declines in the first phase, antibodies in the second phase persisted at SBA titres greater than 128. Although there is no strong evidence base for a correlate of protection against infection with Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, we use an assumed SBA titre of 128 as a threshold of protection to predict that 20 years after vaccination with a single dose of MenAfriVac, vaccine efficacy will be 52% (29-73) in children vaccinated at age 12-23 months and 70% (60-79) in participants vaccinated at age 2-29 years.

INTERPRETATION

Population-level immunity induced by routine vaccination with the Expanded Programme on Immunization is predicted to persist at levels sufficient to confer more than 50% protection over a 20-year time period. Further increases in population-level immunity could be obtained via mass campaigns or by delaying the age of vaccination through the Expanded Programme on Immunization. However, the benefits of such a strategy would need to be weighed against the risks of leaving young children unvaccinated for longer.

FUNDING

Meningitis Vaccine Project and Institut Pasteur.

The Global Meningococcal Initiative meeting on prevention of meningococcal disease worldwide: Epidemiology, surveillance, hypervirulent strains, antibiotic resistance and high-risk populations

INTRODUCTION

The 2018 Global Meningococcal Initiative (GMI) meeting focused on evolving invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) epidemiology, surveillance, and protection strategies worldwide, with emphasis on emerging antibiotic resistance and protection of high-risk populations. The GMI is comprised of a multidisciplinary group of scientists and clinicians representing institutions from several continents.

AREAS COVERED

Given that the incidence and prevalence of IMD continually varies both geographically and temporally, and surveillance systems differ worldwide, the true burden of IMD remains unknown. Genomic alterations may increase the epidemic potential of meningococcal strains. Vaccination and (to a lesser extent) antimicrobial prophylaxis are the mainstays of IMD prevention. Experiences from across the globe advocate the use of conjugate vaccines, with promising evidence growing for protein vaccines. Multivalent vaccines can broaden protection against IMD. Application of protection strategies to high-risk groups, including individuals with asplenia, complement deficiencies and human immunodeficiency virus, laboratory workers, persons receiving eculizumab, and men who have sex with men, as well as attendees at mass gatherings, may prevent outbreaks. There was, however, evidence that reduced susceptibility to antibiotics was increasing worldwide.

EXPERT COMMENTARY

The current GMI global recommendations were reinforced, with several other global initiatives underway to support IMD protection and prevention.

Initial validation of a simulation model for estimating the impact of serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis vaccination in the African meningitis belt

We previously developed a mathematical simulation of serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis (NmA) transmission in Burkina Faso, with the goal of forecasting the relative benefit of different vaccination programs. Here, we revisit key structural assumptions of the model by comparing how accurately the different assumptions reproduce observed NmA trends following vaccine introduction. A priori, we updated several of the model's parameters based on recently published studies. We simulated NmA disease under different assumptions about duration of vaccine-induced protection (including the possibility that vaccine-induced protection may last longer than natural immunity). We compared simulated and observed case counts from 2011-2017. We then used the best-fit model to forecast the impact of different vaccination strategies. Our updated model, with the assumption that vaccine-induced immunity lasts longer than immunity following NmA colonization, was able to reproduce observed trends in NmA disease. The updated model predicts that, following a mass campaign among persons 1-29 years of age, either routine immunization of 9 month-old children or periodic mini-campaigns among children 1-4 years of age will lead to sustained control of epidemic NmA in Burkina Faso. This validated model can help public health officials set policies for meningococcal vaccination in Africa.

Compartmental models for seasonal hyperendemic bacterial meningitis in the African meningitis belt

The pathophysiological mechanisms underlying the seasonal dynamic and epidemic occurrence of bacterial meningitis in the African meningitis belt remain unknown. Regular seasonality (seasonal hyperendemicity) is observed for both meningococcal and pneumococcal meningitis and understanding this is critical for better prevention and modelling. The two principal hypotheses for hyperendemicity during the dry season imply (1) an increased risk of invasive disease given asymptomatic carriage of meningococci and pneumococci; or (2) an increased transmission of these bacteria from carriers and ill individuals. In this study, we formulated three compartmental deterministic models of seasonal hyperendemicity, featuring one (model1-'inv' or model2-'transm'), or a combination (model3-'inv-transm') of the two hypotheses. We parameterised the models based on current knowledge on meningococcal and pneumococcal biology and pathophysiology. We compared the three models' performance in reproducing weekly incidences of suspected cases of acute bacterial meningitis reported by health centres in Burkina Faso during 2004-2010, through the meningitis surveillance system. The three models performed well (coefficient of determination R2, 0.72, 0.86 and 0.87, respectively). Model2-'transm' and model3-'inv-transm' better captured the amplitude of the seasonal incidence. However, model2-'transm' required a higher constant invasion rate for a similar average baseline transmission rate. The results suggest that a combination of seasonal changes of the risk of invasive disease and carriage transmission is involved in the hyperendemic seasonality of bacterial meningitis in the African meningitis belt. Consequently, both interventions reducing the risk of nasopharyngeal invasion and the bacteria transmission, especially during the dry season are believed to be needed to limit the recurrent seasonality of bacterial meningitis in the meningitis belt.

Immunogenicity and safety of MenACWY-TT, a meningococcal conjugate vaccine, co-administered with routine childhood vaccine in healthy infants: A phase III, randomized study

BACKGROUND

Invasive meningococcal disease has a high burden in young children, particularly during infancy. We investigated the immunogenicity and safety of a quadrivalent meningococcal conjugated vaccine (MenACWY-TT) co-administered with routine vaccines in healthy infants.

METHODS

In this phase IIIb study (NCT01340898) conducted in 2 centers in Lebanon and Mexico, 750 infants were randomized (2:1:1) to receive MenACWY-TT according to 3 schedules: 3+1 (at ages 2, 4, 6 and 15-18 months; group ACWY3+1); 1+1 (at 6 and 15-18 months; group ACWY1+1) or single-dose at 15-18 months (group ACWY1). All infants received PHiD-CV and DTPa-IPV/Hib at ages 2, 4, 6, 15-18 months. Immune responses to MenACWY-TT were assessed by rSBA and hSBA at 7 months (groups ACWY3+1, ACWY1+1) and pre- and post-vaccination at 15-18 months of age (all groups). Immune responses to co-administered vaccines, reactogenicity and safety were also evaluated.

RESULTS

Immunogenicity of MenACWY-TT at 1 month post-primary vaccination was demonstrated in group ACWY3+1: the lower limit of the 95% confidence interval for the percentage of infants with rSBA titers ≥8 was >80% for each serogroup. At 7 months of age, ≥93.9% of MenACWY-TT-primed infants had rSBA titers ≥8. Post-MenACWY-TT vaccination at age 15-18 months, ≥96.3% of participants in all groups had rSBA titers ≥8, regardless of the number of doses received previously. The percentage of infants with hSBA titers ≥4 were ≥87.2% and ≥89.7% at post-primary and booster/single-dose vaccination, respectively. Immune responses to PHiD-CV and DTPa-IPV/Hib did not seem impacted by co-administration with MenACWY-TT in infancy. The incidence of all adverse events was similar among groups. Serious adverse events were reported for 63/750 children in all groups; none were considered vaccine-related by investigators.

CONCLUSION

Primary vaccination with 3 or 1 dose(s) of MenACWY-TT when co-administered with routine pediatric vaccines in infants is immunogenic and well-tolerated.

Successful African introduction of a new Group A meningococcal conjugate vaccine: Future challenges and next steps

The introduction of a new Group A meningococcal conjugate vaccine, MenAfriVacR, has been a important public health success. Group A meningococcal meningitis has disappeared in all countries where the new Men A conjugate vaccine has been used at public health scale. However, continued control of Group A disease in sub-Saharan Africa will require that community immunity against Group A meningococci be maintained. Modeling studies have shown that unless herd immunity is maintained Group A meningococcal disease will return. To ensure that African populations remain protected birth cohorts must be protected with an EPI formulation of MenAfriVacR (5 mcg) given at 9 months with Measles 1. In addition, populations born after the initial 1-29 year old campaigns and consequently not yet immunized with the new Men A conjugate vaccine, will have to be immunized in country-specific catch-up campaigns. Countries with poor EPI coverage (Measles 1 coverage < 60%) will likely need quinquennial vaccination campaigns aimed at covering 1-4 year olds. Implementing these strategies is the only sure way of ensuring that Group A meningococcal meningitis epidemics will not recur. A second problem that requires urgent attention is the challenge of dealing with Non-A meningococcal meningitis epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa. Groups C, W and X meningococci are well-established circulating strains in sub-Saharan Africa and are responsible for yearly focal meningitis epidemics that vary in severity and remain unpredictable as to size and geographic distribution. For this reason, polyvalent meningococcal conjugate vaccines that are affordable and appropriate for the African context must be developed and introduced. These new meningococcal vaccines when combined with more affordable pneumococcal conjugate vaccines offer the promise of a meningitis-free Sub-Saharan Africa.

Mathematical Modelling of Bacterial Meningitis Transmission Dynamics with Control Measures

Vaccination and treatment are the most effective ways of controlling the transmission of most infectious diseases. While vaccination helps susceptible individuals to build either a long-term immunity or short-term immunity, treatment reduces the number of disease-induced deaths and the number of infectious individuals in a community/nation. In this paper, a nonlinear deterministic model with time-dependent controls has been proposed to describe the dynamics of bacterial meningitis in a population. The model is shown to exhibit a unique globally asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium ℰ₀, when the effective reproduction number ℛ_VT ≤ 1, and a globally asymptotically stable endemic equilibrium ℰ₁, when ℛ_VT > 1; and it exhibits a transcritical bifurcation at ℛ_VT = 1. Carriers have been shown (by Tornado plot) to have a higher chance of spreading the infection than those with clinical symptoms who will sometimes be bound to bed during the acute phase of the infection. In order to find the best strategy for minimizing the number of carriers and ill individuals and the cost of control implementation, an optimal control problem is set up by defining a Lagrangian function L to be minimized subject to the proposed model. Numerical simulation of the optimal problem demonstrates that the best strategy to control bacterial meningitis is to combine vaccination with other interventions (such as treatment and public health education). Additionally, this research suggests that stakeholders should press hard for the production of existing/new vaccines and antibiotics and their disbursement to areas that are most affected by bacterial meningitis, especially Sub-Saharan Africa; furthermore, individuals who live in communities where the environment is relatively warm (hot/moisture) are advised to go for vaccination against bacterial meningitis.

Assessing the Importance of Domestic Vaccine Manufacturing Centers: An Overview of Immunization Programs, Vaccine Manufacture, and Distribution

Vaccines have significantly reduced the detrimental effects of numerous human infectious diseases worldwide, helped to reduce drastically child mortality rates and even achieved eradication of major pathogens, such as smallpox. These achievements have been possible due to a dedicated effort for vaccine research and development, as well as an effective transfer of these vaccines to public health care systems globally. Either public or private institutions have committed to developing and manufacturing vaccines for local or international population supply. However, current vaccine manufacturers worldwide might not be able to guarantee sufficient vaccine supplies for all nations when epidemics or pandemics events could take place. Currently, different countries produce their own vaccine supplies under Good Manufacturing Practices, which include the USA, Canada, China, India, some nations in Europe and South America, such as Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, France, Argentina, and Brazil, respectively. Here, we discuss some of the vaccine programs and manufacturing capacities, comparing the current models of vaccine management between industrialized and developing countries. Because local vaccine production undoubtedly provides significant benefits for the respective population, the manufacture capacity of these prophylactic products should be included in every country as a matter of national safety.

Impact of serogroup A meningococcal conjugate vaccine for Africa

The introduction of a serogroup A meningococcal conjugate vaccine in the African meningitis belt has been a remarkable success. Meningitis due to the serogroup A meningococcus, previously responsible for most epidemics, has fallen by 99% in vaccinated countries. Success must, however, not distract from the continuing burden of meningitis in this region of Africa. The number of all meningitis epidemics at health district level has fallen by 60% following vaccination, but epidemics due to other meningococcal serogroups continue and may be increasing. The introduction of low cost multivalent conjugate vaccines must be given high public health priority.

The cost-effectiveness of alternative vaccination strategies for polyvalent meningococcal vaccines in Burkina Faso: A transmission dynamic modeling study

BACKGROUND

The introduction of a conjugate vaccine for serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis has dramatically reduced disease in the African meningitis belt. In this context, important questions remain about the performance of different vaccine policies that target remaining serogroups. Here, we estimate the health impact and cost associated with several alternative vaccination policies in Burkina Faso.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We developed and calibrated a mathematical model of meningococcal transmission to project the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted and costs associated with the current Base policy (serogroup A conjugate vaccination at 9 months, as part of the Expanded Program on Immunization [EPI], plus district-specific reactive vaccination campaigns using polyvalent meningococcal polysaccharide [PMP] vaccine in response to outbreaks) and three alternative policies: (1) Base Prime: novel polyvalent meningococcal conjugate (PMC) vaccine replaces the serogroup A conjugate in EPI and is also used in reactive campaigns; (2) Prevention 1: PMC used in EPI and in a nationwide catch-up campaign for 1-18-year-olds; and (3) Prevention 2: Prevention 1, except the nationwide campaign includes individuals up to 29 years old. Over a 30-year simulation period, Prevention 2 would avert 78% of the meningococcal cases (95% prediction interval: 63%-90%) expected under the Base policy if serogroup A is not replaced by remaining serogroups after elimination, and would avert 87% (77%-93%) of meningococcal cases if complete strain replacement occurs. Compared to the Base policy and at the PMC vaccine price of US$4 per dose, strategies that use PMC vaccine (i.e., Base Prime and Preventions 1 and 2) are expected to be cost saving if strain replacement occurs, and would cost US$51 (-US$236, US$490), US$188 (-US$97, US$626), and US$246 (-US$53, US$703) per DALY averted, respectively, if strain replacement does not occur. An important potential limitation of our study is the simplifying assumption that all circulating meningococcal serogroups can be aggregated into a single group; while this assumption is critical for model tractability, it would compromise the insights derived from our model if the effectiveness of the vaccine differs markedly between serogroups or if there are complex between-serogroup interactions that influence the frequency and magnitude of future meningitis epidemics.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that a vaccination strategy that includes a catch-up nationwide immunization campaign in young adults with a PMC vaccine and the addition of this new vaccine into EPI is cost-effective and would avert a substantial portion of meningococcal cases expected under the current World Health Organization-recommended strategy of reactive vaccination. This analysis is limited to Burkina Faso and assumes that polyvalent vaccines offer equal protection against all meningococcal serogroups; further studies are needed to evaluate the robustness of this assumption and applicability for other countries in the meningitis belt.

Lessons from the Meningitis Vaccine Project

From 2001 to 2017 the Meningitis Vaccine Project (MVP), a Gates Foundation funded partnership between PATH and the World Health Organization (WHO), successfully developed, tested, licensed, and introduced an affordable new Group A meningococcal conjugate vaccine, MenAfriVac, in sub-Saharan Africa. The vaccine was well received, and from 2010 to 2016, over 260 million Africans have received a dose of the vaccine in campaigns largely directed at 1–29-year olds. The public health impact has been dramatic with the elimination of Group A meningococcal infections wherever the vaccine has been used at public health scale. Over its 16-year life span, MVP faced many challenges, and lessons were learned that may be of interest to other groups seeking to develop vaccine products for resource-poor countries. We have chosen to highlight six elements that were keys to the success of the project: (a) country and African regional engagement during all phases of the project; (b) the evolution of the WHO/PATH partnership; (c) funding the introduction of MenAfriVac in meningitis belt countries; (d) regulatory challenges; (e) clinical trials in Africa and India; and (f ) the realities of vaccine development partnerships.

Bacterial meningitis epidemiology and return of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A cases in Burkina Faso in the five years following MenAfriVac mass vaccination campaign

Background

Historically, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A (NmA) caused large meningitis epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2010, Burkina Faso became the first country to implement a national meningococcal serogroup A conjugate vaccine (MACV) campaign. We analyzed nationwide meningitis surveillance data from Burkina Faso for the 5 years following MACV introduction.

Methods

We examined Burkina Faso’s aggregate reporting and national laboratory-confirmed case-based meningitis surveillance data from 2011–2015. We calculated incidence (cases per 100,000 persons), and described reported NmA cases.

Results

In 2011–2015, Burkina Faso reported 20,389 cases of suspected meningitis. A quarter (4,503) of suspected meningitis cases with cerebrospinal fluid specimens were laboratory-confirmed as either S. pneumoniae (57%), N. meningitidis (40%), or H. influenzae (2%). Average adjusted annual national incidence of meningococcal meningitis was 3.8 (range: 2.0–10.2 annually) and was highest among infants aged <1 year (8.4). N. meningitidis serogroup W caused the majority (64%) of meningococcal meningitis among all age groups. Only six confirmed NmA cases were reported in 2011–2015. Five cases were in children who were too young (n = 2) or otherwise not vaccinated (n = 3) during the 2010 MACV mass vaccination campaign; one case had documented MACV receipt, representing the first documented MACV failure.

Conclusions

Meningococcal meningitis incidence in Burkina Faso remains relatively low following MACV introduction. However, a substantial burden remains and NmA transmission has persisted. MACV integration into routine childhood immunization programs is essential to ensure continued protection.

Reduced schedules of 4CMenB vaccine in infants and catch-up series in children: Immunogenicity and safety results from a randomised open-label phase 3b trial

BACKGROUND

This study evaluated the immunogenicity and safety of a licensed meningococcal serogroup B vaccine (4CMenB) administered alone according to reduced schedules in infants or catch-up series in children.

METHODS

In this open-label, multicentre, phase 3b study (NCT01339923), infants randomised 1:1:1 received 4CMenB: 2+1 doses at 3½-5-11months or 6-8-11months of age, 3+1 doses at ages 2½-3½-5-11months. Children aged 2-10years received 2 catch-up doses administered 2months apart. Immune responses were measured by hSBA assays against 4 strains specific for vaccine components fHbp, NadA, PorA and NHBA. Sufficiency of immune responses was defined in groups with 2+1 doses schedules as a lower limit ≥70% for the 97.5% confidence interval of the percentage of infants with hSBA titres ≥4, 1month post-dose 2 for fHbp, NadA, PorA. Adverse events were collected for 7days post-vaccination; serious adverse events (SAEs) throughout the study.

RESULTS

754 infants and 404 children were enrolled. Post-primary vaccination, 98-100% of infants across all groups developed hSBA titres ≥4 for fHbp, NadA, PorA, and 48-77% for NHBA. Sufficiency of immune responses in infants receiving 2+1 schedules was demonstrated for fHbp, NadA, PorA after 2 doses of 4CMenB, as pre-specified criteria were met. Following receipt of 2 catch-up doses, 95-99% of children developed hSBA titres ≥4 for 4CMenB components. Similar safety profiles were observed across groups. A total of 45 SAEs were reported, 3 of which were related to vaccination.

CONCLUSION

Reduced infant schedules and catch-up series in children were immunogenic and safe, having the potential to widen 4CMenB vaccine coverage.

FUNDING

GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals SA.

[Innovations in vaccinology: challenge and opportunities for Africa]

Immunization is undoubtedly one of the most effective and most cost-effective health interventions. Vaccines continue to revolutionize our ability to prevent diseases and improve health. With all the technological advances, we are able to extend the benefits of vaccines to more people and to provide better protection from life-threatening infectious diseases. Nevertheless, thanks to the unceasing implementation of novel microbial strains on a worldwide basis, research in vaccinology must innovate continuously. African countries have made great progress in increasing routine immunization coverage rates and in introducing newly developed vaccines. New types of vaccines associated with vectorization, administration and specific licensing tools as well as with adjuvants designed to finely modulate immune responses are expected to be achieved in the near future. African countries need to work to develop a regional approach to respond effectively to the many challenges. Providing better information, implementing healthcare personnel vaccinology training programs and well targeted research projects are the keys to future achievements in the field.

Meningococcal disease in the Middle East and Africa: Findings and updates from the Global Meningococcal Initiative

The Global Meningococcal Initiative (GMI) has recently considered current issues in Middle Eastern and African countries, and produced two recommendations: (i) that vaccination of attendees should be considered for some types of mass-gathering events, as some countries mandate for the Hajj, and (ii) vaccination of people with human immunodeficiency virus should be used routinely, because of increased meningococcal disease (MD) risk. Differences exist between Middle Eastern and African countries regarding case and syndrome definitions, surveillance, and epidemiologic data gaps. Sentinel surveillance provides an overview of trends and prevalence of different capsular groups supporting vaccine selection and planning, whereas cost-effectiveness decisions require comprehensive disease burden data, ideally counting every case. Surveillance data showed importance of serogroup B MD in North Africa and serogroup W expansion in Turkey and South Africa. Success of MenAfriVac^® in the African "meningitis belt" was reviewed; the GMI believes similar benefits may follow development of a low-cost meningococcal pentavalent vaccine, currently in phase 1 clinical trial, by 2022. The importance of carriage and herd protection for controlling invasive MD and the importance of advocacy and awareness campaigns were also highlighted.

Synthesis and immunochemical evaluation of a novel Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A tetrasaccharide and its conjugate

A tetrameric repeating unit of capsular polysaccharide of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A was synthesized which mimicked natural polysaccharide in immunochemical analysis.

The Global Meningococcal Initiative: global epidemiology, the impact of vaccines on meningococcal disease and the importance of herd protection

INTRODUCTION

The 2015 Global Meningococcal Initiative (GMI) meeting discussed the global importance of meningococcal disease (MD) and its continually changing epidemiology. Areas covered: Although recent vaccination programs have been successful in reducing incidence in many countries (e.g. Neisseria meningitidis serogroup [Men]C in Brazil, MenA in the African meningitis belt), new clones have emerged, causing outbreaks (e.g. MenW in South America, MenC in Nigeria and Niger). The importance of herd protection was highlighted, emphasizing the need for high vaccination uptake among those with the highest carriage rates, as was the need for boosters to maintain individual and herd protection following decline of immune response after primary immunization. Expert commentary: The GMI Global Recommendations for Meningococcal Disease were updated to include a recommendation to enable access to whole-genome sequencing as for surveillance, guidance on strain typing to guide use of subcapsular vaccines, and recognition of the importance of advocacy and awareness campaigns.

Costs of Neisseria meningitidis Group A Disease and Economic Impact of Vaccination in Burkina Faso

Background. Five years since the successful introduction of MenAfriVac in a mass vaccination campaign targeting 1- to 29-year-olds in Burkina Faso, consideration must be given to the optimal strategies for sustaining population protection. This study aims to estimate the economic impact of a range of vaccination strategies in Burkina Faso.

Methods. We performed a cost-of-illness study, comparing different vaccination scenarios in terms of costs to both households and health systems over a 26-year time horizon. These scenarios are (1) reactive vaccination campaign (baseline comparator); (2) preventive vaccination campaign; (3) routine immunization at 9 months; and (4) a combination of routine and an initial catchup campaign of children under 5. Costs were estimated from a literature review, which included unpublished programmatic documents and peer-reviewed publications. The future disease burden for each vaccination strategy was predicted using a dynamic transmission model of group A Neisseria meningitidis.

Results. From 2010 to 2014, the total costs associated with the preventive campaign targeting 1- to 29-year-olds with MenAfriVac were similar to the estimated costs of the reactive vaccination strategy (approximately 10 million US dollars [USD]). Between 2015 and 2035, routine immunization with or without a catch-up campaign of 1- to 4-year-olds is cost saving compared with the reactive strategy, both with and without discounting costs and cases. Most of the savings are accrued from lower costs of case management and household costs resulting from a lower burden of disease. After the initial investment in the preventive strategy, 1 USD invested in the routine strategy saves an additional 1.3 USD compared to the reactive strategy.

Conclusions. Prevention strategies using MenAfriVac will be significantly cost saving in Burkina Faso, both for the health system and for households, compared with the reactive strategy. This will protect households from catastrophic expenditures and increase the development capacity of the population.