A Dose-finding Study of a Wild-type Influenza A(H3N2) Virus in a Healthy Volunteer Human Challenge Model

Single-cell analysis of VACV infection reveals pathogen-driven timing of early and late phases and host-limited dynamics of virus production

The extent and origin of variation in the replication dynamics of complex DNA viruses is not well-defined. Here, we investigate the vaccinia virus (VACV) infection cycle at the single-cell level, quantifying the temporal dynamics of early and post(dna)-replicative phase gene expression across thousands of infections. We found that viral factors determine the initiation time of these phases, and this is influenced by the multiplicity of infection (MOI). In contrast, virus production dynamics are largely constrained by the host cell. Additionally, between-cell variability in infection start time and virus production rate were strongly influenced by MOI, providing evidence for cooperativity between infecting virions. Blocking programmed cell death by pan-caspase inhibition increased infection frequency but not virus production at the population level due to a concurrent attenuation of per-cell virus yield, suggesting a dual role for caspase signaling in VACV infection. Our findings provide key insights into the pivotal factors influencing heterogeneity in the infection cycle of a large DNA virus at the single-cell level.

Symptom propagation in respiratory pathogens of public health concern: a review of the evidence

Symptom propagation occurs when the symptom set an individual experiences is correlated with the symptom set of the individual who infected them. Symptom propagation may dramatically affect epidemiological outcomes, potentially causing clusters of severe disease. Conversely, it could result in chains of mild infection, generating widespread immunity with minimal cost to public health. Despite accumulating evidence that symptom propagation occurs for many respiratory pathogens, the underlying mechanisms are not well understood. Here, we conducted a scoping literature review for 14 respiratory pathogens to ascertain the extent of evidence for symptom propagation by two mechanisms: dose-severity relationships and route-severity relationships. We identify considerable heterogeneity between pathogens in the relative importance of the two mechanisms, highlighting the importance of pathogen-specific investigations. For almost all pathogens, including influenza and SARS-CoV-2, we found support for at least one of the two mechanisms. For some pathogens, including influenza, we found convincing evidence that both mechanisms contribute to symptom propagation. Furthermore, infectious disease models traditionally do not include symptom propagation. We summarize the present state of modelling advancements to address the methodological gap. We then investigate a simplified disease outbreak scenario, finding that under strong symptom propagation, isolating mildly infected individuals can have negative epidemiological implications.

Epidemiological and health economic implications of symptom propagation in respiratory pathogens: A mathematical modelling investigation

BACKGROUND

Respiratory pathogens inflict a substantial burden on public health and the economy. Although the severity of symptoms caused by these pathogens can vary from asymptomatic to fatal, the factors that determine symptom severity are not fully understood. Correlations in symptoms between infector-infectee pairs, for which evidence is accumulating, can generate large-scale clusters of severe infections that could be devastating to those most at risk, whilst also conceivably leading to chains of mild or asymptomatic infections that generate widespread immunity with minimal cost to public health. Although this effect could be harnessed to amplify the impact of interventions that reduce symptom severity, the mechanistic representation of symptom propagation within mathematical and health economic modelling of respiratory diseases is understudied.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We propose a novel framework for incorporating different levels of symptom propagation into models of infectious disease transmission via a single parameter, α. Varying α tunes the model from having no symptom propagation (α = 0, as typically assumed) to one where symptoms always propagate (α = 1). For parameters corresponding to three respiratory pathogens-seasonal influenza, pandemic influenza and SARS-CoV-2-we explored how symptom propagation impacted the relative epidemiological and health-economic performance of three interventions, conceptualised as vaccines with different actions: symptom-attenuating (labelled SA), infection-blocking (IB) and infection-blocking admitting only mild breakthrough infections (IB_MB). In the absence of interventions, with fixed underlying epidemiological parameters, stronger symptom propagation increased the proportion of cases that were severe. For SA and IB_MB, interventions were more effective at reducing prevalence (all infections and severe cases) for higher strengths of symptom propagation. For IB, symptom propagation had no impact on effectiveness, and for seasonal influenza this intervention type was more effective than SA at reducing severe infections for all strengths of symptom propagation. For pandemic influenza and SARS-CoV-2, at low intervention uptake, SA was more effective than IB for all levels of symptom propagation; for high uptake, SA only became more effective under strong symptom propagation. Health economic assessments found that, for SA-type interventions, the amount one could spend on control whilst maintaining a cost-effective intervention (termed threshold unit intervention cost) was very sensitive to the strength of symptom propagation.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the preferred intervention type depended on the combination of the strength of symptom propagation and uptake. Given the importance of determining robust public health responses, we highlight the need to gather further data on symptom propagation, with our modelling framework acting as a template for future analysis.

Single-virus-sensitive barcode qPCR mediated by the aggregation of gold nanoparticle probes

Herein, we developed a gold nanoparticle (GNP)-mediated barcode qPCR strategy with a sensitivity for a single virus particle per reaction for the detection of influenza virus H3N2. The analysis of the results for pure virus and real virus samples show that GNP-mediated barcode qPCR is ∼16 times more sensitive than conventional qPCR, demonstrating the potential to reduce false negatives and improve early diagnosis of viral infections.

Pan-antiviral effects of a PIKfyve inhibitor on respiratory virus infection in human nasal epithelium and mice

Endocytosis, or internalization through endosomes, is a major cell entry mechanism used by respiratory viruses. Phosphoinositide 5-kinase (PIKfyve) is a critical enzyme for the synthesis of phosphatidylinositol (3, 5)biphosphate (PtdIns (3, 5)P2) and has been implicated in virus trafficking via the endocytic pathway. In fact, antiviral effects of PIKfyve inhibitors against SARS-CoV-2 and Ebola have been reported, but there is little evidence regarding other respiratory viruses. In this study, we demonstrated the antiviral effects of PIKfyve inhibitors on influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus in vitro and in vivo. PIKfyve inhibitors Apilimod mesylate (AM) and YM201636 concentration-dependently inhibited several influenza strains in an MDCK cell-cytopathic assay. AM also reduced the viral load and cytokine release, while improving the cell integrity of human nasal air-liquid interface cultured epithelium infected with influenza PR8. In PR8-infected mice, AM (2 mg/mL), when intranasally treated, exhibited a significant reduction of viral load and inflammation and inhibited weight loss caused by influenza infection, with effects being similar to oral oseltamivir (10 mg/kg). In addition, AM demonstrated antiviral effects in RSV A2-infected human nasal epithelium in vitro and mouse in vivo, with an equivalent effect to that of ribavirin. AM also showed antiviral effects against human rhinovirus and seasonal coronavirus in vitro. Thus, PIKfyve is found to be involved in influenza and RSV infection, and PIKfyve inhibitor is a promising molecule for a pan-viral approach against respiratory viruses.

Propylene glycol inactivates respiratory viruses and prevents airborne transmission

Viruses are vulnerable as they transmit between hosts, and we aimed to exploit this critical window. We found that the ubiquitous, safe, inexpensive and biodegradable small molecule propylene glycol (PG) has robust virucidal activity. Propylene glycol rapidly inactivates a broad range of viruses including influenza A, SARS-CoV-2 and rotavirus and reduces disease burden in mice when administered intranasally at concentrations commonly found in nasal sprays. Most critically, vaporised PG efficiently abolishes influenza A virus and SARS-CoV-2 infectivity within airborne droplets, potently preventing infection at levels well below those tolerated by mammals. We present PG vapour as a first-in-class non-toxic airborne virucide that can prevent transmission of existing and emergent viral pathogens, with clear and immediate implications for public health.

Block the Spread: Barriers to Transmission of Influenza Viruses

Respiratory viruses, such as influenza viruses, cause significant morbidity and mortality worldwide through seasonal epidemics and sporadic pandemics. Influenza viruses transmit through multiple modes including contact (either direct or through a contaminated surface) and inhalation of expelled aerosols. Successful human to human transmission requires an infected donor who expels virus into the environment, a susceptible recipient, and persistence of the expelled virus within the environment. The relative efficiency of each mode can be altered by viral features, environmental parameters, donor and recipient host characteristics, and viral persistence. Interventions to mitigate transmission of influenza viruses can target any of these factors. In this review, we discuss many aspects of influenza virus transmission, including the systems to study it, as well as the impact of natural barriers and various nonpharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions.

Within-host diversity improves phylogenetic and transmission reconstruction of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

Accurate inference of who infected whom in an infectious disease outbreak is critical for the delivery of effective infection prevention and control. The increased resolution of pathogen whole-genome sequencing has significantly improved our ability to infer transmission events. Despite this, transmission inference often remains limited by the lack of genomic variation between the source case and infected contacts. Although within-host genetic diversity is common among a wide variety of pathogens, conventional whole-genome sequencing phylogenetic approaches exclusively use consensus sequences, which consider only the most prevalent nucleotide at each position and therefore fail to capture low-frequency variation within samples. We hypothesized that including within-sample variation in a phylogenetic model would help to identify who infected whom in instances in which this was previously impossible. Using whole-genome sequences from SARS-CoV-2 multi-institutional outbreaks as an example, we show how within-sample diversity is partially maintained among repeated serial samples from the same host, it can transmitted between those cases with known epidemiological links, and how this improves phylogenetic inference and our understanding of who infected whom. Our technique is applicable to other infectious diseases and has immediate clinical utility in infection prevention and control.

A Multicenter, Controlled Human Infection Study of Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in Healthy Adults

BACKGROUND

We evaluated the associations between baseline influenza virus-specific hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) and microneutralization (MN) titers and subsequent symptomatic influenza virus infection in a controlled human infection study.

METHODS

We inoculated unvaccinated healthy adults aged 18-49 years with an influenza A/California/04/2009/H1N1pdm-like virus (NCT04044352). We collected serial safety labs, serum for HAI and MN, and nasopharyngeal swabs for reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing. Analyses used the putative seroprotective titer of ≥40 for HAI and MN. The primary clinical outcome was mild-to-moderate influenza disease (MMID), defined as ≥1 postchallenge positive qualitative RT-PCR test with a qualifying symptom/clinical finding.

RESULTS

Of 76 participants given influenza virus challenge, 54 (71.1%) experienced MMID. Clinical illness was generally very mild. MMID attack rates among participants with baseline titers ≥40 by HAI and MN were 64.9% and 67.9%, respectively, while MMID attack rates among participants with baseline titers <40 by HAI and MN were 76.9% and 78.3%, respectively. The estimated odds of developing MMID decreased by 19% (odds ratio, 0.81 [95% confidence interval, .62-1.06]; P = .126) for every 2-fold increase in baseline HAI. There were no significant adverse events.

CONCLUSIONS

We achieved a 71.1% attack rate of MMID. High baseline HAI and MN were associated with protection from illness. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT04044352.

Risk Factors of Severe COVID-19: A Review of Host, Viral and Environmental Factors

The clinical course and outcome of COVID-19 are highly variable, ranging from asymptomatic infections to severe disease and death. Understanding the risk factors of severe COVID-19 is relevant both in the clinical setting and at the epidemiological level. Here, we provide an overview of host, viral and environmental factors that have been shown or (in some cases) hypothesized to be associated with severe clinical outcomes. The factors considered in detail include the age and frailty, genetic polymorphisms, biological sex (and pregnancy), co- and superinfections, non-communicable comorbidities, immunological history, microbiota, and lifestyle of the patient; viral genetic variation and infecting dose; socioeconomic factors; and air pollution. For each category, we compile (sometimes conflicting) evidence for the association of the factor with COVID-19 outcomes (including the strength of the effect) and outline possible action mechanisms. We also discuss the complex interactions between the various risk factors.

Controlled Human Infection Models To Accelerate Vaccine Development

The timelines for developing vaccines against infectious diseases are lengthy, and often vaccines that reach the stage of large phase 3 field trials fail to provide the desired level of protective efficacy. The application of controlled human challenge models of infection and disease at the appropriate stages of development could accelerate development of candidate vaccines and, in fact, has done so successfully in some limited cases. Human challenge models could potentially be used to gather critical information on pathogenesis, inform strain selection for vaccines, explore cross-protective immunity, identify immune correlates of protection and mechanisms of protection induced by infection or evoked by candidate vaccines, guide decisions on appropriate trial endpoints, and evaluate vaccine efficacy. We prepared this report to motivate fellow scientists to exploit the potential capacity of controlled human challenge experiments to advance vaccine development. In this review, we considered available challenge models for 17 infectious diseases in the context of the public health importance of each disease, the diversity and pathogenesis of the causative organisms, the vaccine candidates under development, and each model's capacity to evaluate them and identify correlates of protective immunity. Our broad assessment indicated that human challenge models have not yet reached their full potential to support the development of vaccines against infectious diseases. On the basis of our review, however, we believe that describing an ideal challenge model is possible, as is further developing existing and future challenge models.

An inactivated multivalent influenza A virus vaccine is broadly protective in mice and ferrets

Influenza A viruses (IAVs) present major public health threats from annual seasonal epidemics and pandemics and from viruses adapted to a variety of animals including poultry, pigs, and horses. Vaccines that broadly protect against all such IAVs, so-called "universal" influenza vaccines, do not currently exist but are urgently needed. Here, we demonstrated that an inactivated, multivalent whole-virus vaccine, delivered intramuscularly or intranasally, was broadly protective against challenges with multiple IAV hemagglutinin and neuraminidase subtypes in both mice and ferrets. The vaccine is composed of four β-propiolactone-inactivated low-pathogenicity avian IAV subtypes of H1N9, H3N8, H5N1, and H7N3. Vaccinated mice and ferrets demonstrated substantial protection against a variety of IAVs, including the 1918 H1N1 strain, the highly pathogenic avian H5N8 strain, and H7N9. We also observed protection against challenge with antigenically variable and heterosubtypic avian, swine, and human viruses. Compared to control animals, vaccinated mice and ferrets demonstrated marked reductions in viral titers, lung pathology, and host inflammatory responses. This vaccine approach indicates the feasibility of eliciting broad, heterosubtypic IAV protection and identifies a promising candidate for influenza vaccine clinical development.

A Brief History of Human Challenge Studies (1900-2021) Emphasising the Virology, Regulatory and Ethical Requirements, Raison D'etre, Ethnography, Selection of Volunteers and Unit Design

Venetian quarantine 400 years ago was an important public health measure. Since 1900 this has been refined to include "challenge" or deliberate infection with pathogens be they viruses, bacteria, or parasites. Our focus is virology and ranges from the early experiments in Cuba with Yellow Fever Virus to the most widespread pathogen of our current times, COVID-19. The latter has so far caused over four million deaths worldwide and 190 million cases of the disease. Quarantine and challenge were also used to investigate the Spanish Influenza of 1918 which caused over 100 million deaths. We consider here the merits of the approach, that is the speeding up of knowledge in a practical sense leading to the more rapid licensing of vaccines and antimicrobials. At the core of quarantine and challenge initiatives is the design of the unit to allow safe confinement of the pathogen and protection of the staff. Most important though is the safety of volunteers. We can see now, as in 1900, that members of our society are prepared and willing to engage in these experiments for the public good. Our ethnology study, where the investigator observed the experiment from within the quarantine, gave us the first indication of changing attitudes amongst volunteers whilst in quarantine. These quarantine experiments, referred to as challenge studies, human infection studies, or "controlled human infection models" involve thousands of clinical samples taken over two to three weeks and can provide a wealth of immunological and molecular data on the infection itself and could allow the discovery of new targets for vaccines and therapeutics. The Yellow Fever studies from 121 years ago gave the impetus for development of a successful vaccine still used today whilst also uncovering the nature of the Yellow Fever agent, namely that it was a virus. We outline how carefully these experiments are approached and the necessity to have high quality units with self-contained air-flow along with extensive personal protective equipment for nursing and medical staff. Most important is the employment of highly trained scientific, medical and nursing staff. We face a future of emerging pathogens driven by the increasing global population, deforestation, climate change, antibiotic resistance and increased global travel. These emerging pathogens may be pathogens we currently are not aware of or have not caused outbreaks historically but could also be mutated forms of known pathogens including viruses such as influenza (H7N9, H5N1 etc.) and coronaviruses. This calls for challenge studies to be part of future pandemic preparedness as an additional tool to assist with the rapid development of broad-spectrum antimicrobials, immunomodulators and new vaccines.

Within-host diversity improves phylogenetic and transmission reconstruction of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

Accurate inference of who infected whom in an infectious disease outbreak is critical for the delivery of effective infection prevention and control. The increased resolution of pathogen whole-genome sequencing has significantly improved our ability to infer transmission events. Despite this, transmission inference often remains limited by the lack of genomic variation between the source case and infected contacts. Although within-host genetic diversity is common among a wide variety of pathogens, conventional whole-genome sequencing phylogenetic approaches to reconstruct outbreaks exclusively use consensus sequences, which consider only the most prevalent nucleotide at each position and therefore fail to capture low frequency variation within samples. We hypothesized that including within-sample variation in a phylogenetic model would help to identify who infected whom in instances in which this was previously impossible. Using whole-genome sequences from SARS-CoV-2 multi-institutional outbreaks as an example, we show how within-sample diversity is stable among repeated serial samples from the same host, is transmitted between those cases with known epidemiological links, and how this improves phylogenetic inference and our understanding of who infected whom. Our technique is applicable to other infectious diseases and has immediate clinical utility in infection prevention and control.

Clinical analysis on diagnostic accuracy of Bosch Vivalytic SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care test and evaluation of cycle threshold at admission for COVID-19 risk assessment

BACKGROUND

Point-of-care (POC) polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests have the ability to improve testing efficiency in the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. However, real-world data on POC tests is scarce.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the efficiency of a novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) POC test in a clinical setting and examine the prognostic value of cycle threshold (CT) on admission on the length of hospital stay (LOS) in COVID-19 patients.

METHODS

Patients hospitalised between January and May 2021 were included in this prospective cohort study. Patients' nasopharyngeal swabs were tested for SARS-CoV-2 with Allplex™2019-nCoV (Seegene Inc.) real-time (RT) PCR assay as gold standard as well as a novel POC test (Bosch Vivalytic SARS-CoV-2 [Bosch]) and the SARS-CoV-2 Rapid Antigen Test (Roche) accordingly. Clinical sensitivity and specificity as well as inter- and intra-assay variability were analyzed.

RESULTS

120 patients met the inclusion criteria with 46 (38%) having a definite COVID-19 diagnosis by RT-PCR. Bosch Vivalytic SARS-CoV-2 POC had a sensitivity of 88% and specificity of 96%. The inter- and intra- assay variability was below 15%. The CT value at baseline was lower in patients with LOS ≥ 10 days when compared to patients with LOS < 10 days (27.82 (± 4.648) vs. 36.2 (25.9-39.18); p = 0.0191). There was a negative correlation of CT at admission and LOS (r[44]s = - 0.31; p = 0.038) but only age was associated with the probability of an increased LOS in a multiple logistic regression analysis (OR 1.105 [95% CI, 1.03-1.19]; p = 0.006).

CONCLUSION

Our data indicate that POC testing with Bosch Vivalytic SARS-CoV-2 is a valid strategy to identify COVID-19 patients and decrease turnaround time to definite COVID-19 diagnosis. Also, our data suggest that age at admission possibly with CT value as a combined parameter could be a promising tool for risk assessment of increased length of hospital stay and severity of disease in COVID-19 patients.

Modeling COVID-19 Mortality Across 44 Countries: Face Covering May Reduce Deaths

INTRODUCTION

Despite ongoing efforts to vaccinate communities against COVID-19, the necessity of face mask use in controlling the pandemic remains subject to debate. Several studies have investigated face masks and COVID-19, covering smaller and less diverse populations than this study's sample. This study examines a hypothesized association of face-covering mandates with COVID-19 mortality decline across 44 countries in 2 continents.

METHODS

In a retrospective cohort study, changes in COVID-19‒related daily mortality rate per million population from February 15 to May 31, 2020 were compared between 27 countries with and 17 countries without face mask mandates in nearly 1 billion (911,446,220 total) people. Longitudinal mixed effect modeling was applied and adjusted for over 10 relevant demographic, social, clinical, and time-dependent confounders.

RESULTS

Average COVID-19 mortality per million was 288.54 in countries without face mask policies and 48.40 in countries with face mask policies. In no mask countries, adjusted average daily increase was 0.1553 - 0.0017 X (days since the first case) log deaths per million, compared with 0.0900 - 0.0009 X (days since the first case) log deaths per million in the countries with a mandate. A total of 60 days into the pandemic, countries without face mask mandates had an average daily increase of 0.0533 deaths per million, compared with the average daily increase of 0.0360 deaths per million for countries with face mask mandates.

CONCLUSIONS

This study's significant results show that face mask mandates were associated with lower COVID-19 deaths rates than the rates in countries without mandates. These findings support the use of face masks to prevent excess COVID-19 deaths and should be advised during airborne disease epidemics.

SARS-CoV-2 Gene Expression as a Prognosis Predictor for COVID-19

Introduction: Real time quantitative PCR is the gold standard for detection of SARS-CoV-2 which is specific, sensitive, and simple quantitative. The target of RT-qPCR is to assess the expression level of the SARS-CoV-2 gene through cycle threshold values (CT-value). The purpose of this study was to analyze the association of the level of SARS-CoV-2 gene expression and the severity of COVID-19 in patients hospitalized. Method: This research is an analytic observational study with cross sectional method. While the research sample was taken using a consecutive sampling technique from the Medical Records of Sumedang Hospital and Cideres Hospital, West Java, Indonesia from December 2020 to March 2021. Patient parameters include analysis of age, sex, comorbidity, and disease severity. The severity of the patient is classified based on complaints and oxygen saturation. The expression level of the SARS-CoV-2 N gene and E gene were assessed by calculating the relative quantification by comparing the expression of the E and N gene with the expression of the internal control gene by Livak formula (2-ΔΔCT Formula). Result: The Spearman correlation test showed that there was a relationship between the expression of SARS-CoV-2 genes E and N genes with the severity of COVID-19 patients (with r=0.374 and p<0.0001) and (with r=0.452 and p<0.0001). Conclusions:  There is an correlation between the level of expression of genes E and gene N with the severity of patients.  

Assessment of Risks Associated With Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Experimental Human Infection Studies

Controlled human infection (CHI) models for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been proposed as a tool to accelerate the development of vaccines and drugs. Such models carry inherent risks. Participants may develop severe disease or complications after deliberate infection. Prolonged isolation may negatively impact their well-being. Through secondary infection of study personnel or participant household contacts, the experimental virus strain may cause a community outbreak. We identified risks associated with such a SARS-CoV-2 CHI model and assessed their likelihood and impact and propose strategies that mitigate these risks. In this report, we show that risks can be minimized with proper risk mitigation strategies; the residual risk, however, should be weighed carefully against the scientific and social values of such a CHI model.

Importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions in lowering the viral inoculum to reduce susceptibility to infection by SARS-CoV-2 and potentially disease severity

Adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been highly variable across settings, particularly in the USA. In this Personal View, we review data supporting the importance of the viral inoculum (the dose of viral particles from an infected source over time) in increasing the probability of infection in respiratory, gastrointestinal, and sexually transmitted viral infections in humans. We also review the available evidence linking the relationship of the viral inoculum to disease severity. Non-pharmaceutical interventions might reduce the susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection by reducing the viral inoculum when there is exposure to an infectious source. Data from physical sciences research suggest that masks protect the wearer by filtering virus from external sources, and others by reducing expulsion of virus by the wearer. Social distancing, handwashing, and improved ventilation also reduce the exposure amount of viral particles from an infectious source. Maintaining and increasing non-pharmaceutical interventions can help to quell SARS-CoV-2 as we enter the second year of the pandemic. Finally, we argue that even as safe and effective vaccines are being rolled out, non-pharmaceutical interventions will continue to play an essential role in suppressing SARS-CoV-2 transmission until equitable and widespread vaccine administration has been completed.

Prevalence of Neutralising Antibodies to HCoV-NL63 in Healthy Adults in Australia

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of understanding the immune response to seasonal human coronavirus (HCoV) infections such as HCoV-NL63, how existing neutralising antibodies to HCoV may modulate responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection, and the utility of seasonal HCoV as human challenge models. Therefore, in this study we quantified HCoV-NL63 neutralising antibody titres in a healthy adult population using plasma from 100 blood donors in Australia. A microneutralisation assay was performed with plasma diluted from 1:10 to 1:160 and tested with the HCoV-NL63 Amsterdam-1 strain. Neutralising antibodies were detected in 71% of the plasma samples, with a median geometric mean titre of 14. This titre was similar to those reported in convalescent sera taken from individuals 3–7 months following asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, and 2–3 years post-infection from symptomatic SARS-CoV-1 patients. HCoV-NL63 neutralising antibody titres decreased with increasing age (R² = 0.042, p = 0.038), but did not differ by sex. Overall, this study demonstrates that neutralising antibody to HCoV-NL63 is detectable in approximately 71% of the healthy adult population of Australia. Similar titres did not impede the use of another seasonal human coronavirus (HCoV-229E) in a human challenge model, thus, HCoV-NL63 may be useful as a human challenge model for more pathogenic coronaviruses.

Antibody Responsiveness to Influenza: What Drives It?

The induction of a specific antibody response has long been accepted as a serological hallmark of recent infection or antigen exposure. Much of our understanding of the influenza antibody response has been derived from studying antibodies that target the hemagglutinin (HA) protein. However, growing evidence points to limitations associated with this approach. In this review, we aim to highlight the issue of antibody non-responsiveness after influenza virus infection and vaccination. We will then provide an overview of the major factors known to influence antibody responsiveness to influenza after infection and vaccination. We discuss the biological factors such as age, sex, influence of prior immunity, genetics, and some chronic infections that may affect the induction of influenza antibody responses. We also discuss the technical factors, such as assay choices, strain variations, and viral properties that may influence the sensitivity of the assays used to measure influenza antibodies. Understanding these factors will hopefully provide a more comprehensive picture of what influenza immunogenicity and protection means, which will be important in our effort to improve influenza vaccines.

Animal Models Utilized for the Development of Influenza Virus Vaccines

Animal models have been an important tool for the development of influenza virus vaccines since the 1940s. Over the past 80 years, influenza virus vaccines have evolved into more complex formulations, including trivalent and quadrivalent inactivated vaccines, live-attenuated vaccines, and subunit vaccines. However, annual effectiveness data shows that current vaccines have varying levels of protection that range between 40–60% and must be reformulated every few years to combat antigenic drift. To address these issues, novel influenza virus vaccines are currently in development. These vaccines rely heavily on animal models to determine efficacy and immunogenicity. In this review, we describe seasonal and novel influenza virus vaccines and highlight important animal models used to develop them.

Cohabitation With a Known Coronavirus Disease 2019 Case Is Associated With Greater Antibody Concentration and Symptom Severity in a Community-Based Sample of Seropositive Adults

In a community-based sample of seropositive adults (n = 1101), we found that seropositive individuals who lived with a known coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case exhibited higher blood anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 spike receptor-binding domain immunoglobulin G concentrations and greater symptom severity compared to seropositive individuals who did not live with a known COVID-19 case.

Slight reduction in SARS-CoV-2 exposure viral load due to masking results in a significant reduction in transmission with widespread implementation

Masks are a vital tool for limiting SARS-CoV-2 spread in the population. Here we utilize a mathematical model to assess the impact of masking on transmission within individual transmission pairs and at the population level. Our model quantitatively links mask efficacy to reductions in viral load and subsequent transmission risk. Our results reinforce that the use of masks by both a potential transmitter and exposed person substantially reduces the probability of successful transmission, even if masks only lower exposure viral load by ~ 50%. Slight increases in mask adherence and/or efficacy above current levels would reduce the effective reproductive number (R_e) substantially below 1, particularly if implemented comprehensively in potential super-spreader environments. Our model predicts that moderately efficacious masks will also lower exposure viral load tenfold among people who get infected despite masking, potentially limiting infection severity. Because peak viral load tends to occur pre-symptomatically, we also identify that antiviral therapy targeting symptomatic individuals is unlikely to impact transmission risk. Instead, antiviral therapy would only lower R_e if dosed as post-exposure prophylaxis and if given to ~ 50% of newly infected people within 3 days of an exposure. These results highlight the primacy of masking relative to other biomedical interventions under consideration for limiting the extent of the COVID-19 pandemic prior to widespread implementation of a vaccine. To confirm this prediction, we used a regression model of King County, Washington data and simulated the counterfactual scenario without mask wearing to estimate that in the absence of additional interventions, mask wearing decreased R_e from 1.3–1.5 to ~ 1.0 between June and September 2020.

Systems Biological Analysis of Immune Response to Influenza Vaccination

The last decade has witnessed tremendous progress in immunology and vaccinology, owing to several scientific and technological breakthroughs. Systems vaccinology is a field that has emerged at the forefront of vaccine research and development and provides a unique way to probe immune responses to vaccination in humans. The goals of systems vaccinology are to use systems-based approaches to define signatures that can be used to predict vaccine immunogenicity and efficacy and to delineate the molecular mechanisms driving protective immunity. The application of systems biological approaches in influenza vaccination studies has enabled the discovery of early signatures that predict immunogenicity to vaccination and yielded novel mechanistic insights about vaccine-induced immunity. Here we review the contributions of systems vaccinology to influenza vaccine development and critically examine the potential of systems vaccinology toward enabling the development of a universal influenza vaccine that provides robust and durable immunity against diverse influenza viruses.

Droplets and aerosols: An artificial dichotomy in respiratory virus transmission

In the medical literature, three mutually non-exclusive modes of pathogen transmission associated with respiratory droplets are usually identified: contact, droplet, and airborne (or aerosol) transmission. The demarcation between droplet and airborne transmission is often based on a cut-off droplet diameter, most commonly 5 μm. We argue here that the infectivity of a droplet, and consequently the transmissivity of the virus, as a function of droplet size is a continuum, depending on numerous factors (gravitational settling rate, transport, and dispersion in a turbulent air jet, viral load and viral shedding, virus inactivation) that cannot be adequately characterized by a single droplet diameter. We propose instead that droplet and aerosol transmission should be replaced by a unique airborne transmission mode, to be distinguished from contact transmission.

Exploring Risks of Human Challenge Trials For COVID-19

Human challenge trials (HCTs) are a potential method to accelerate development of vaccines and therapeutics. However, HCTs for COVID-19 pose ethical and practical challenges, in part due to the unclear and developing risks. In this article , we introduce an interactive model for exploring some risks of a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-COV-2) dosing study, a prerequisite for any COVID-19 challenge trials. The risk estimates we use are based on a Bayesian evidence synthesis model which can incorporate new data on infection fatality risks (IFRs) to patients, and infer rates of hospitalization. The model estimates individual risk, which we then extrapolate to overall mortality and hospitalization risk in a dosing study. We provide a web tool to explore risk under different study designs. Based on the Bayesian model, IFR for someone between 20 and 30 years of age is 15.1 in 100,000, with a 95% uncertainty interval from 11.8 to 19.2, while risk of hospitalization is 130 per 100,000 (100-160). However, risk will be reduced in an HCT via screening for comorbidities, selecting lower-risk population, and providing treatment. Accounting for this with stronger assumptions, we project the fatality risk to be as low as 2.5 per 100,000 (1.6-3.9) and the hospitalization risk to be 22.0 per 100,000 (14.0-33.7). We therefore find a 50-person dosing trial has a 99.74% (99.8-99.9%) chance of no fatalities, and a 98.9% (98.3-99.3%) probability of no cases requiring hospitalization.

Activated CD4+ T cells and CD14hiCD16+ monocytes correlate with antibody response following influenza virus infection in humans

The failure to mount an antibody response following viral infection or seroconversion failure is a largely underappreciated and poorly understood phenomenon. Here, we identified immunologic markers associated with robust antibody responses after influenza virus infection in two independent human cohorts, SHIVERS and FLU09, based in Auckland, New Zealand and Memphis, Tennessee, USA, respectively. In the SHIVERS cohort, seroconversion significantly associates with (1) hospitalization, (2) greater numbers of proliferating, activated CD4⁺ T cells, but not CD8⁺ T cells, in the periphery during the acute phase of illness, and (3) fewer inflammatory monocytes (CD14^hiCD16⁺) by convalescence. In the FLU09 cohort, fewer CD14^hiCD16⁺ monocytes during early illness in the nasal mucosa were also associated with the generation of influenza-specific mucosal immunoglobulin A (IgA) and IgG antibodies. Our study demonstrates that seroconversion failure after infection is a definable immunological phenomenon, associated with quantifiable cellular markers that can be used to improve diagnostics, vaccine efficacy, and epidemiologic efforts.

Post-infection seroconversion is associated with severity of influenza virus infection

Seroconverters have early proliferation and activation of CD4⁺ T cells

CD8⁺ T cells are unaffected

CD14^hiCD16⁺ monocytes in the blood and nasal mucosa is associated with antibody response

On the SARS-CoV-2 "Variolation Hypothesis": No Association Between Viral Load of Index Cases and COVID-19 Severity of Secondary Cases

Background: Emerging evidence supports the “variolation hypothesis” in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), but the derivative idea that the viral load of index cases may predict disease severity in secondary cases could be unsubstantiated. We assessed whether the prevalence of symptomatic infections, hospitalization, and deaths in household contacts of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases differed according to the SARS-CoV-2 PCR cycle threshold (Ct) from nasal-pharyngeal swab at diagnosis of linked index cases.

Methods: Cross-sectional study on household contacts of COVID-19 cases randomly sampled from all the infections diagnosed in March at our Microbiology Laboratory (Amedeo di Savoia, Turin). Data were retrospectively collected by phone interviews and from the Piedmont regional platform for COVID-19 emergency. Index cases were classified as high (HVl) and low viral load (LVl) according to two exploratory cut-offs of RdRp gene Ct value. Secondary cases were defined as swab confirmed or symptom based likely when not tested but presenting compatible clinical picture.

Results: One hundred thirty-two index cases of whom 87.9% symptomatic and 289 household contacts were included. The latter were male and Caucasian in 44.3 and 95.8% of cases, with a median age of 34 years (19–57). Seventy-four were swab confirmed and other 28 were symptom based likely secondary cases. Considering both, the contacts of HVl and LVl did not differ in the prevalence of symptomatic infections nor COVID-19-related hospitalization and death. No difference in median Ct of index cases between symptomatic and asymptomatic, hospitalized and not hospitalized, or deceased and survived secondary cases was found. Negative findings were confirmed after adjusting for differences in time between COVID-19 onset and swab collection of index cases (median 5 days) and after removing pediatric secondary cases.

Conclusions: The amount of SARS-CoV-2 of the source at diagnosis does not predict clinical outcomes of linked secondary cases. Considering the impelling release of assays for SARS-CoV-2 RNA exact quantification, these negative findings should inform clinical and public health strategies on how to interpret and use the data.

Exposure to SARS-CoV-2 within the household is associated with greater symptom severity and stronger antibody responses in a community-based sample of seropositive adults

Magnitude of SARS-CoV-2 virus exposure may contribute to symptom severity. In a sample of seropositive adults (n=1101), we found that individuals who lived with a known COVID-19 case exhibited greater symptom severity and IgG concentrations compared to individuals who were seropositive but did not live with a known case (P<0.0001).

Pre-existing heterosubtypic immunity provides a barrier to airborne transmission of influenza viruses

Human-to-human transmission of influenza viruses is a serious public health threat, yet the precise role of immunity from previous infections on the susceptibility to airborne infection is still unknown. Using the ferret model, we examined the roles of exposure duration and heterosubtypic immunity on influenza transmission. We demonstrate that a 48 hour exposure is sufficient for efficient transmission of H1N1 and H3N2 viruses. To test pre-existing immunity, a gap of 8–12 weeks between primary and secondary infections was imposed to reduce innate responses and ensure robust infection of donor animals with heterosubtypic viruses. We found that pre-existing H3N2 immunity did not significantly block transmission of the 2009 H1N1pandemic (H1N1pdm09) virus to immune animals. Surprisingly, airborne transmission of seasonal H3N2 influenza strains was abrogated in recipient animals with H1N1pdm09 pre-existing immunity. This protection from natural infection with H3N2 virus was independent of neutralizing antibodies. Pre-existing immunity with influenza B virus did not block H3N2 virus transmission, indicating that the protection was likely driven by the adaptive immune response. We demonstrate that pre-existing immunity can impact susceptibility to heterologous influenza virus strains, and implicate a novel correlate of protection that can limit the spread of respiratory pathogens through the air.

Influenza viruses pose a major public health threat through both seasonal epidemics and sporadic pandemics. An individual’s first influenza virus infection leaves long-lasting immunity, which plays an unknown role on susceptibility to airborne transmission of new viral strains. We show that pre-existing heterosubtypic immunity against the 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus protects recipient animals from airborne transmission of a seasonal H3N2 influenza virus, which is independent of cross-neutralizing antibodies. Pre-existing immunity with influenza B viruses was not protective suggesting that this phenomenon is driven by an adaptive response. Taken together, these data indicate that pre-existing immunity is an important barrier to airborne transmission and can influence the emergence and spread of potentially pandemic viruses.

Diagnostic SARS-CoV-2 Cycle Threshold Value Predicts Disease Severity, Survival, and Six-Month Sequelae in COVID-19 Symptomatic Patients

To date, there is no severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2-(SARS-CoV-2)-specific prognostic biomarker available. We assessed whether SARS-CoV-2 cycle threshold (Ct) value at diagnosis could predict novel CoronaVirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity, clinical manifestations, and six-month sequelae. Hospitalized and outpatient cases were randomly sampled from the diagnoses of March 2020 and data collected at 6 months by interview and from the regional database for COVID-19 emergency. Patients were stratified according to their RNA-dependent-RNA-polymerase Ct in the nasopharyngeal swab at diagnosis as follows: Group A ≤ 20.0, 20.0 < group B ≤ 28.0, and Group C > 28.0. Disease severity was classified according to a composite scale evaluating hospital admission, worst oxygen support required, and survival. Two hundred patients were included, 27.5% in Groups A and B both, 45.0% in Group C; 90% of patients were symptomatic and 63.7% were hospitalized. The median time from COVID-19 onset to swab collection was five days. Lethality, disease severity, type, and number of signs and symptoms, as well as six-month sequelae distributed inversely among the groups with respect to SARS-CoV-2 Ct. After controlling for confounding, SARS-CoV-2 Ct at diagnosis was still associated with COVID-19-related death (p = 0.023), disease severity (p = 0.023), number of signs and symptoms (p < 0.01), and presence of six-month sequelae (p < 0.01). Early quantification of SARS-CoV-2 may be a useful predictive marker to inform differential strategies of clinical management and resource allocation.

Outcomes of COVID-19 Among Hospitalized Health Care Workers in North America

Importance

Although health care workers (HCWs) are at higher risk of acquiring coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), it is unclear whether they are at risk of poorer outcomes.

Objective

To evaluate the association between HCW status and outcomes among patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective, observational cohort study included consecutive adult patients hospitalized with a diagnosis of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 across 36 North American centers from April 15 to June 5, 2020. Data were collected from 1992 patients. Data were analyzed from September 10 to October 1, 2020.

Exposures

Data on patient baseline characteristics, comorbidities, presenting symptoms, treatments, and outcomes were collected, including HCW status.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was a requirement for mechanical ventilation or death. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to yield adjusted odds ratios (AORs) and 95% CIs for the association between HCW status and COVID-19-related outcomes in a 3:1 propensity score-matched cohort, adjusting for residual confounding after matching.

Results

In total, 1790 patients were included, comprising 127 HCWs and 1663 non-HCWs. After 3:1 propensity score matching, 122 HCWs were matched to 366 non-HCWs. Women comprised 71 (58.2%) of matched HCWs and 214 (58.5%) of matched non-HCWs. Matched HCWs had a mean (SD) age of 52 (13) years, whereas matched non-HCWs had a mean (SD) age of 57 (17) years. In the matched cohort, the odds of the primary outcome, mechanical ventilation or death, were not significantly different for HCWs compared with non-HCWs (AOR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.34-1.04). The HCWs were less likely to require admission to an intensive care unit (AOR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.34-0.92) and were also less likely to require an admission of 7 days or longer (AOR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.34-0.83). There were no differences between matched HCWs and non-HCWs in terms of mechanical ventilation (AOR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.37-1.17), death (AOR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.18-1.27), or vasopressor requirements (AOR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.37-1.24).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this propensity score-matched multicenter cohort study, HCW status was not associated with poorer outcomes among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and, in fact, was associated with a shorter length of hospitalization and decreased likelihood of intensive care unit admission. Further research is needed to elucidate the proportion of HCW infections acquired in the workplace and to assess whether HCW type is associated with outcomes.

COVID-19: Does the infectious inoculum dose-response relationship contribute to understanding heterogeneity in disease severity and transmission dynamics?

The variation in the speed and intensity of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and severity of the resulting COVID-19 disease are still imperfectly understood. We postulate a dose-response relationship in COVID-19, and that "the dose of virus in the initial inoculum" is an important missing link in understanding several incompletely explained observations in COVID-19 as a factor in transmission dynamics and severity of disease. We hypothesize that: (1) Viral dose in inoculum is related to severity of disease, (2) Severity of disease is related to transmission potential, and (3) In certain contexts, chains of severe cases can build up to severe local outbreaks, and large-scale intensive epidemics. Considerable evidence from other infectious diseases substantiates this hypothesis and recent evidence from COVID-19 points in the same direction. We suggest research avenues to validate the hypothesis. If proven, our hypothesis could strengthen the scientific basis for deciding priority containment measures in various contexts in particular the importance of avoiding super-spreading events and the benefits of mass masking.

Human Challenge Studies With Wild-Type Severe Acute Respiratory Sydrome Coronavirus 2 Violate Longstanding Codes of Human Subjects Research

This manuscript explores the ethics of human inoculation experiments in young healthy adults with wild-type severe acute respiratory sydrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) as a tool to evaluate vaccine efficacy in the context of the Nuremberg Code, the Declaration of Helsinki, and the Belmont Report, and in the context of dose-response relationships with infectious agents. Despite societal pressure to develop a SARS-CoV-2 challenge model to evaluate vaccines, we argue that there are substantial risks that cannot be adequately defined because the dose of SARS-CoV-2 that causes severe disease in young adults is unknown. In the absence of curative therapy, even if a volunteer consents, longstanding ethical codes governing human subjects research preclude the conduct of such experiments.

Low-dose and oral exposure to SARS-CoV-2 may help us understand and prevent severe COVID-19

Background

The effectiveness and sustainability of current public health interventions designed to prevent severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission remain of great concern in many settings, especially in the absence of a transmission-preventing vaccine.

Hypothesis

It was hypothesized that a more targeted set of interventions focusing on preventing severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), rather than SARS-CoV-2 transmission, would be less disruptive to society. To identify these, it would be helpful to better understand how the infecting dose of SARS-CoV-2 and its route of infection influence the clinical outcome, immunological protection, and likelihood of onward transmission.

Proposal

It is suggested that carefully controlled human infection model (CHIM) studies involving intranasal and oral administration of progressively increasing doses of SARS-CoV-2, starting with low levels, to healthy young adult volunteers may be the most expeditious and definitive way to answer these questions. Such studies would differ in objective from CHIM proposals designed to expedite vaccine development, although the latter might be adapted to address some of the questions raised here.

Implications

Results from the studies proposed here could help elucidate the relationship of infection to COVID-19 and thereby provide a scientific basis for more targeted and sustainable application of public health control measures, and inform the design of improved immunotherapeutics and more targeted vaccine development.

Safety and Efficacy of CR6261 in an Influenza A H1N1 Healthy Human Challenge Model

BACKGROUND

It is imperative to identify new targets for improved vaccines and therapeutics against influenza and one such target is the relatively conserved stalk region of the influenza A hemagglutinin (HA) surface protein.

METHODS

We conducted a randomized, double-blind, Phase II placebo-controlled trial of a monoclonal antibody that targets the HA stalk (CR6261) in a H1N1pdm09 healthy volunteer human challenge model. A single 50mg/kg dose of CR6261 was infused 24 hours after challenge and the primary efficacy outcome was area under the curve of viral RNA detection over time.

RESULTS

Ninety-one healthy volunteers were randomized and underwent influenza challenge; 49 received CR6261 and 42 placebo. CR6261 had no statistically significant effect on AUC (AUC 48.56 log (copies/mL) x days, IQR 202 vs. AUC 25.53 log (copies/mL) x days, IQR 155), P=0.315), and no clinically significant effect on influenza disease measures including number of symptoms, duration of symptoms, or FLU-PRO scores. Preexisting anti-NA antibody titers were most predictive of reduced influenza disease. CR6261 reached a mean peak serum concentration of 1x10 6 ng/ml 15 minutes after infusion, and a mean peak of 5.97x10 2 ng/ml in the nasal mucosa 2-3 days after infusion.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study suggest that a monoclonal anti-stalk approach to prevent or treat influenza infection may be limited in efficacy. Future approaches should consider including and evaluating anti-stalk antibodies as part of a multi-faceted strategy rather than as a standalone therapeutic.

Flu Universal Vaccines: New Tricks on an Old Virus

Conventional influenza vaccines are based on predicting the circulating viruses year by year, conferring limited effectiveness since the antigenicity of vaccine strains does not always match the circulating viruses. This necessitates development of universal influenza vaccines that provide broader and lasting protection against pan-influenza viruses. The discovery of the highly conserved immunogens (epitopes) of influenza viruses provides attractive targets for universal vaccine design. Here we review the current understanding with broadly protective immunogens (epitopes) and discuss several important considerations to achieve the goal of universal influenza vaccines.

Negative pressure face shield for flexible laryngoscopy in the COVID-19 era

OBJECTIVE

Introduce novel methods and materials to limit microdroplet spread when performing transnasal aerosol generating procedures in the COVID-19 era.

METHODS

Prototypes of a negative pressure face shield (NPFS) were tested then used clinically to create a suction-clearing negative pressure microenvironment with controlled access to the nose and mouth. Air pressure measurements within prototypes were followed by prospective evaluation of 30 consecutive patients treated with the device assessed through questionnaires and monitoring oximetry.

RESULTS

The NPFS is a transparent acrylic barrier with two anterior instrumentation ports and a side port to which continuous suction is applied. It is positioned on a stand and employs a disposable antimicrobial wrap to secure an enclosure around the head. This assembly was successfully used to complete transnasal laryngoscopy in all 30 patients studied. Tolerance of the design was excellent, with postprocedure questionnaire identifying no shortness of breath (27/30), no claustrophobia (27/30), no pain (29/30), and no significant changes in pulse oximetry.

CONCLUSION

Diagnostic laryngoscopy was successfully performed in a negative pressure microenvironment created to limit dispersion of aerosols. Further application of the NPFS device is targeted for use with transnasal laryngeal laser and biopsy procedures to be followed by additional modification to enable intranasal and intraoral procedures in a similar protected environment.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level 2b (Cohort Study).

Efficacy of FLU-v, a broad-spectrum influenza vaccine, in a randomized phase IIb human influenza challenge study

FLU-v, developed by PepTcell (SEEK), is a peptide vaccine aiming to provide a broadly protective cellular immune response against influenza A and B. A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, single-center, phase IIb efficacy and safety trial was conducted. One hundred and fifty-three healthy individuals 18-55 years of age were randomized to receive one or two doses of adjuvanted FLU-v or adjuvanted placebo subcutaneously on days -43 and -22, prior to intranasal challenge on day 0 with the A/California/04/2009/H1N1 human influenza A challenge virus. The primary objective of the study was to identify a reduction in mild to moderate influenza disease (MMID) defined as the presence of viral shedding and clinical influenza symptoms. Single-dose adjuvanted FLU-v recipients (n = 40) were significantly less likely to develop MMID after challenge vs placebo (n = 42) (32.5% vs 54.8% p = 0.035). FLU-v should continue to be evaluated and cellular immunity explored further as a possible important correlate of protection against influenza.