The impact of smoking on gender differences in life expectancy: more heterogeneous than often stated

Contributions of age groups and causes of death to the sex gap in lifespan variation in Europe

Much less is known about the sex gap in lifespan variation, which reflects inequalities in the length of life, than about the sex gap in life expectancy (average length of life). We examined the contributions of age groups and causes of death to the sex gap in lifespan variation for 28 European countries, grouped into five European regions. In 2010-15, males in Europe displayed a 6.8-year-lower life expectancy and a 2.3-year-higher standard deviation in lifespan than females, with clear regional differences. Sex differences in lifespan variation are attributable largely to higher external mortality among males aged 30-39, whereas sex differences in life expectancy are due predominantly to higher smoking-related and cardiovascular disease mortality among males aged 60-69. The distinct findings for the sex gap in lifespan variation and the sex gap in life expectancy provide additional insights into the survival differences between the sexes.

Gender Disparities in Blood Pressure and the Role of Body Mass Index: A Birth Cohort Analysis in China

BACKGROUND

The slow decline in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and the stagnant or increasing hypertension prevalence in low- and middle-income countries necessitate investigation. Evolving gender disparities suggested that male cardiovascular health disadvantage may be preventable, offering potential for enhancing population cardiovascular health. Despite global body mass index (BMI) increases, its role in shaping the gender disparities remains underexplored.

OBJECTIVE

This study investigated the birth cohort dynamics of gender disparities in systolic/diastolic blood pressure (SBP/DBP) in China, one of the world's largest low- and middle-income countries, and explored the potential role of BMI in explaining the changing gender disparities.

METHODS

Data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (1991-2015) were analyzed using multilevel growth-curve models to estimate gender- and cohort-specific SBP/DBP trajectories among individuals born between 1950 and 1975.

RESULTS

Men had higher SBP and DBP than women at the sample's mean age of 41.7 years. The gender disparities in SBP and DBP increased with each successive one-year cohort from 1950 to 1975 by 0.14 mm Hg and 0.09 mm Hg, respectively. Adjusting for BMI reduced the increasing gender disparities in SBP and DBP by 31.9% and 34.4%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Chinese men experienced a greater increase in SBP/DBP across successive cohorts compared to women. The increasing gender disparities in SBP/DBP were partially attributable to a greater BMI increase across cohorts among men. Given these findings, prioritizing interventions that aim to reduce BMI, particularly among men, could potentially alleviate the burden of CVD in China through lowering SBP/DBP.

A fuzzy decision support model for the evaluation and selection of healthcare projects in the framework of competition

Our research aims to support decision-making regarding the financing of healthcare projects by structural funds with policies targeting reduction of the development gap among different regions and countries of the European Union as well as the achievement of economic and social cohesion. A fuzzy decision support model for the evaluation and selection of healthcare projects should rank the project applications for the selected region, accounting for the investor's wishes in the form of a regional coefficient in order to reduce the development gap between regions. On the one hand, our proposed model evaluates project applications based on selected criteria, which may be structured, weakly structured, or unstructured. On the other hand, it also incorporates information on the level of healthcare development in the region. The obtained ranking increases the degree of validity of the decision regarding the selection of projects for financing by investors, considering the level of development of the region where the project will be implemented. At the expense of European Union (EU) structural funds, a village, city, region, or state can receive funds for modernization and development of the healthcare sector and all related processes. To minimize risks, it is necessary to implement adequate support systems for decision-making in the assessment of project applications, as well as regional policy in the region where the project will be implemented. The primary goal of this study was to develop a complex fuzzy decision support model for the evaluation and selection of projects in the field of healthcare with the aim of reducing the development gap between regions. Based on the above description, we formed the following scientific hypothesis for this research: if the project selected for financing can successfully achieve its stated goals and increase the level of development of its region, it should be evaluated positively. This evaluation can be obtained using a complex fuzzy model constructed to account for the region's level of development in terms of the availability and quality of healthcare services in the region where the project will be implemented.

Ideal cardiovascular health metrics and life expectancy free of cardiovascular diseases: a prospective cohort study

Objectives

Whether cardiovascular health (CVH) metrics impact longevity with and without cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) has not been well established. This study aimed to investigate the association between CVH metrics and life expectancy in participants free of CVD events. We hypothesized that ideal CVH status was associated with increased life expectancy and assessed the effect of CVH status as a prevention target of longevity in the framework of predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine (PPPM/3PM).

Methods

A total of 92,795 participants in the Kailuan study were examined and thereafter followed up until 2020. We considered three transitions (from non-CVD events to incident CVD events, from non-CVD events to mortality, and from CVD events to mortality). The multistate lifetable method was applied to estimate the life expectancy.

Results

During a median follow-up of 13 years, 12,541 (13.51%) deaths occurred. Compared with poor CVH, ideal CVH attenuated the risk of incident CVD events and mortality without CVD events by approximately 58% and 27%, respectively. Women with ideal CVH at age 35 had a 5.00 (3.23-6.77) year longer life expectancy free of CVD events than did women with poor CVH metrics. Among men, ideal CVH was associated with a 6.74 (5.55-7.93) year longer life expectancy free of CVD events.

Conclusion

An ideal CVH status is associated with a lower risk of premature mortality and a longer life expectancy, either in the general population or in CVD patients, which are cost-effective ways for personalized medicine of potential CVD patients. Our findings suggest that the promotion of a higher CVH score or ideal CVH status would result in reduced burdens of CVD events and extended disease-free life expectancy, which offered an accurate prediction for primary care following the concept of PPPM/3PM.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13167-023-00322-8.

Patterns in age and cause of death contribution to the sex gap in life expectancy: a comparison among ten countries

Women live longer than men and the absolute difference between male and female mortality risk reaches its maximum at old ages. We decomposed the sex gap in life expectancy and investigated the changes over time of the profile of the age–cause specific contributions with indicators of location, magnitude and dispersion in ten countries. Data were retrieved from the Human Cause-of-Death Database. The decomposition analyses revealed that neoplasm, heart diseases and external causes were the main drivers of the gender gap. We also find two main patterns in the development of age-specific contributions. With mortality delay, regarding neoplasm-related mortality and heart disease-related mortality, the shift (i.e., movement of the modal age at contribution towards older ages) and compression (i.e., dispersion concentrated on a shorter age interval) of the survival advantage of women over a narrower age range reveal that men are gradually improving their survival. This might be linked to improvements in survival, diagnosis and access to treatment, at least to those ages no longer affected by the most significant differences.

The Gender Gap in Life Expectancy in Urban and Rural China, 2013–2018

Background

Gender differences in mortality are embedded within mortality transitions. Rural residents generally lag behind their urban counterparts in the transitions. The study objective is to identify major causes of death that drive gender differences in mortality in urban and rural China.

Methods

We use age-, gender-, urban-rural- and cause-specific mortality data (2013–2018) derived from the national mortality surveillance system that covered about 24% of the Chinese population. We apply Arriaga's method to decompose age- and cause-specific contributions to the gender gap in life expectancy at birth. Analyses are stratified by urban-rural residence.

Results

Women had a higher life expectancy at birth than men in both urban and rural areas. Cancers, cardiovascular disease, external causes, and respiratory disease accounted for more than 90% of the gender gap in both areas during 2013–2018. In urban areas, the gender gap decreased from 5.17 years in 2013–2015 to 4.98 years in 2016–2018. In rural areas, the gender gap stayed rather constant (2013–2015: 5.68 years; 2016–2018: 5.65 years). Traffic accidents, among external causes, contributed the most to decreasing the gender gap (urban: −0.07 years; rural: −0.10 years), especially in the 0–44 age group. However, the decrease in the gender gap was counteracted by an increase in the gender gap attributable to ischemic heart disease (urban: +0.05 years; rural: +0.08 years) and lung cancer (urban: +0.02 years; rural: +0.05 years) in older age groups. The gender gap attributable either to cerebrovascular disease or to chronic lower respiratory disease decreased in urban areas but increased in rural areas.

Conclusions

The urban-rural variations in the cause-specific contributions to the gender gap in China suggest the necessity of implementing urban-rural-specific interventions to improve population health and health equity.

Slowdown in Mortality Improvement in the Past Decade: A US/UK Comparison

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the slowdown in mortality improvement in the United States, United Kingdom, and comparator countries observed in the first decade of the twenty-first century and critically evaluate proposed explanations.

METHODS

Change-point analysis to identify the year of change in comparison of national mortality trends and linear spline models in the investigation of subnational differences using data from the Human Mortality Database, Global Burden of Disease cause-specific data, and, for the United Kingdom, national statistics data. Consideration of the impact of using different methods to estimate overall mortality is also concluded together with a review of methodological assumptions made in previous studies.

RESULTS

The results confirm the slowdown in mortality improvement observed in the early twenty-first century but indicate that proposed explanations for this are inadequate on a range of counts.

DISCUSSION

Mortality improvement slowed down in the early twenty-first century but the explanations advanced, such as opioid use in the United States or influenza epidemics and austerity programs in the United Kingdom, seem unlikely to account for this. Further research considering longer-term life course and cohort influences is needed.

The combined impact of smoking, obesity and alcohol on life-expectancy trends in Europe

BACKGROUND

Smoking, obesity and alcohol abuse greatly affect mortality and exhibit a distinct time dynamic, with their prevalence and associated mortality rates increasing and (eventually) declining over time. Their combined impact on secular trends in life expectancy is unknown but is relevant for understanding these trends. We therefore estimate the combined impact of smoking, obesity and alcohol on life-expectancy trends in Europe.

METHODS

We used estimated national age-specific smoking-, obesity- and alcohol-attributable mortality fractions for 30 European countries by sex, 1990-2014, which we aggregated multiplicatively to obtain lifestyle-attributable mortality. We estimated potential gains in life expectancy by eliminating lifestyle-attributable mortality and compared past trends in life expectancy at birth (e0) with and without lifestyle-attributable mortality. We examined all countries combined, by region and individually.

RESULTS

Among men, the combined impact of smoking, obesity and alcohol on e0 declined from 6.6 years in 1990 to 5.8 years in 2014, mainly due to declining smoking-attributable mortality. Among women, the combined impact increased from 1.9 to 2.3 years due to mortality increases in all three lifestyle-related factors. The observed increase in e0 over the 1990-2014 period was 5.0 years for men and 4.0 years for women. After excluding lifestyle-attributable mortality, this increase would have been 4.2-4.3 years for both men and women.

CONCLUSION

Without the combined impact of smoking, obesity and alcohol, the increase over time in life expectancy at birth would have been smaller among men but larger among women, resulting in a stable increase in e0, parallel for men and women.

Socioeconomic inequalities in lung cancer - a time trend analysis with German health insurance data

BACKGROUND

Lung Cancer (LC) is one of the most prevalent cancer diseases. Due to the lack of databases which allow the combination of information on individual socioeconomic status (SES) and cancer incidence, research on social inequalities in LC among the German population is rare. The aim of the study is to analyse time trends in social inequalities in LC in Germany.

METHODS

The analyses are based on data of a large statutory health insurance provider. The data contain information on diagnoses, occupation and education (working age), and income (full age range) of the insurance population. Trends were analysed for two subpopulations (retirement age and working age) and stratified by sex. The analyses are based on incidence rates and proportional hazard models spanning the periods 2006-2009, 2010-2013 and 2014-2017.

RESULTS

Incidence rates declined in men but increased in women. For men, inequalities were strongest in terms of income and the decline in incidence was most pronounced in middle- and higher-income men. Among women at retirement age, a reversed income gradient was found which disappeared in the second period. The educational gradient among the working-age population decreased over time due to the trend towards increasing incidence among individuals with higher education. Declining gradients were also found for occupational position.

CONCLUSION

The findings reveal considerable inequalities in LC and that trends vary with respect to SES, sex and age. Widening income inequalities were found in the retired population, while educational and occupational inequalities tend to narrow among the working-age population.

Medical mortality in an emergency department in Nigeria: the transition is obvious!

Introduction

The emergency department (ED), a major entry point into the hospital, provides an insight to the type of cases seen, the quality of care and mortality spectrum in a health institution. We aim to identify the spectrum of medical causes of mortality in our ED, the demographic pattern and duration of stay before death.

Method

This is a retrospective study that looked at medical mortality in the ED from January 2004 to December 2009. We obtained data on the demographics and causes of death from the medical records and case notes of the deceased.

Results

A total of 16587 patients were admitted during the period under review, of these 1262 (7.61%) died in the ED. The male to female ratio was 1.58:1.0 [772 males (61.2%), and 489 females (38.8%)]. Mortality was highest among the 20–45 years age range, followed by 46–65 years, >65 years and < 20 years in decreasing frequency [589(46.7%), 421(33.4%), 186 (14.8%) and 66(5.2%) respectively]. The three most common causes of death were stroke 315(25%), HIV related illnesses 126(10.0%), and heart failure 123(9.7%). Most deaths occurred less than 24hours of admission, 550(43.6%), followed by one day (36.0%) and two days (10.8%) post admissions respectively.

Conclusion

The commonest cause of death in the ED was stroke. The burden of death was highest in the younger age group, with most occurring less than 24 hours of admission.

The Role of Smoking in Country Differences in Life Expectancy Across Europe, 1985-2014

INTRODUCTION

Smoking contributes substantially to mortality levels and trends. Its role in country differences in mortality has, however, hardly been quantified. The current study formally assesses the-so far unknown-changing contribution of smoking to country differences in life expectancy at birth (e0) across Europe.

METHODS

Using all-cause mortality data and indirectly estimated smoking-attributable mortality rates by age and sex for 30 European countries from 1985 to 2014, the differences in e0 between each individual European country and the weighted average were decomposed into a smoking- and a nonsmoking-related part.

RESULTS

In 2014, e0 ranged from 70.8 years in Russia to 83.1 years in Switzerland. Men exhibited larger country differences than women (variance of 21.9 and 7.0 years, respectively). Country differences in e0 increased up to 2005 and declined thereafter. Among men, the average contribution of smoking to the country differences in e0 was highest around 1990 (47%) and declined to 35% in 2014. Among women, the average relative contribution of smoking declined from 1991 to 2011, and smoking resulted in smaller differences with the average e0 level in the majority of European countries. For both sexes combined, the contribution of smoking to country differences in e0 was higher than 20% throughout the period.

CONCLUSIONS

Smoking contributed substantially to the country differences in e0 in Europe, their increases up to 1991, and their decreases since 2005, especially among men. Policies that discourage smoking can help to reduce inequalities in mortality levels across Europe in the long run.

IMPLICATIONS

Smoking contributes substantially to country differences in life expectancy at birth (e0) in Europe, particularly among men, for whom the contribution was highest around 1990 (47%) and declined to 35% in 2014. In line with the anticipated progression of the smoking epidemic, the differences between European countries in e0 due to smoking are expected to further decline among men, but to increase among women. The role of smoking in mortality convergence since 2005 illustrates that smoking policies can help to reduce inequalities in life expectancy levels across Europe, particularly when they target smoking in countries with low e0.

Compression, expansion, or maybe both? Growing inequalities in lung cancer in Germany

BACKGROUND

Lung Cancer (LC) is one of the most common malign diseases worldwide. So far, it is unclear if the development of LC incidence and mortality leads to morbidity compression or expansion and whether these developments differ by socioeconomic characteristics. This study analyses time trends in social and gender inequalities in life years with and without LC in Germany.

METHODS

The study is based on data of a large German statutory health insurance provider (N = 2,511,790). Incidence and mortality risks were estimated from multistate survival models. Trends in life years with and without LC were analysed using multistate life table analyses. All analyses were performed separately for gender, time period (2006-2009 and 2014-2017), and income group (<60% and ≥60% of the German average income).

RESULTS

Among men, declining LC incidence rates resulted in gains of life years free of LC and declining LC- affected life years and led to a relative compression, which was strongest in men with higher incomes. Among women, a clear increase in life years with LC led to an expansion of the lifespan affected by LC. This expansion was mainly driven by increasing incidence rates in women with low incomes. Overall, income inequalities in LC increased in both genders.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analyses reveal that developments in the length of life affected by LC differed substantially by gender and income and led to widening health inequalities over time. Public health efforts should mainly focus on vulnerable groups to reduce the persisting social inequalities in LC.

Do Women with Diabetes Need More Intensive Action for Cardiovascular Reduction than Men with Diabetes?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This narrative review makes the case for greater efforts to reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in women with diabetes.

RECENT FINDINGS

In a recent meta-analysis including five CVOTs of diabetes medications with 46,606 subjects, women (vs men) with type 2 diabetes had a higher relative risk for stroke (RR 1.28; 95% CI 1.09, 1.50) and heart failure (1.30; 1.21, 1.40). Prior studies found higher "within-gender" RR for CVD mortality in women with diabetes although men have an absolute higher risk. Women with prior gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) have a 2-fold higher CVD risk than the background population. Worse CVD and CVD risk factor management in women, as well as lower female therapy adherence, contribute further to these disparities. The mechanism behind this excess risk includes biological, hormonal, socioeconomic, clinical, and behavioral factors that still require further investigation. The need for more intensive CVD reduction in women now includes more attention to screening for both incident diabetes and CVD risk factors among high-risk women.

Similarities and Differences Between Sexes and Countries in the Mortality Imprint of the Smoking Epidemic in 34 Low-Mortality Countries, 1950-2014

INTRODUCTION

The smoking epidemic greatly affected mortality levels and trends, especially among men in low-mortality countries. The objective of this article was to examine similarities and differences between sexes and low-mortality countries in the mortality imprint of the smoking epidemic. This will provide important additions to the smoking epidemic model, but also improve our understanding of the differential impact of the smoking epidemic, and provide insights into its future impact.

METHODS

Using lung-cancer mortality data for 30 European and four North American or Australasian countries, smoking-attributable mortality fractions (SAMF) by sex, age (35-99), and year (1950-2014) were indirectly estimated. The timing and level of the peak in SAMF35-99, estimated using weighting and smoothing, were compared.

RESULTS

Among men in all countries except Bulgaria, a clear wave pattern was observed, with SAMF35-99 peaking, on average, at 33.4% in 1986. Eastern European men experienced the highest (40%) and Swedish men the lowest (16%) peak. Among women, SAMF35-99 peaked, on average, at 18.1% in 2007 in the North American/Australasian countries and five Northwestern European countries, and increased, on average, to 7.5% in 2014 in the remaining countries (4% in Southern and Eastern Europe). The average sex difference in the peak is at least 25.6 years in its timing and at most 22.9 percentage points in its level.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the progression of smoking-attributable mortality in low-mortality countries was similar, there are important unexpected sex and country differences in the maximum mortality impact of the smoking epidemic driven by cross-country differences in economic, political, and emancipatory progress.

IMPLICATIONS

The formal, systematic, and comprehensive analysis of similarities and differences between sexes and 34 low-mortality countries in long-term time trends (1950-2014) in smoking-attributable mortality provided important additions to the Global Burden of Disease study and the descriptive smoking epidemic model (Lopez et al.). Despite a general increase followed by a decline, the timing of the maximum mortality impact differs more between sexes than previously anticipated, but less between regions. The maximum mortality impact among men differs considerably between countries. The observed substantial diversity warrants country-specific tobacco control interventions and increased attention to the current or expected higher smoking-attributable mortality shares among women compared to men.

Changing contribution of smoking to the sex differences in life expectancy in Europe, 1950-2014

This article provides a detailed and overarching illustration of the contribution of smoking to sex differences in life expectancy at birth (e0) in Europe, focusing on changes over time and differences between both European countries and European regions. For this purpose, the sex difference in e0 for 31 European countries over the 1950–2014 period was decomposed into a smoking- and a non-smoking-related part, using all-cause mortality data and indirectly estimated smoking-attributable mortality rates by age and sex, and a formal decomposition analysis. It was found that smoking-attributable mortality contributed, on average, 3 years (43.5%) to the 7-year life expectancy difference between women and men in 2014. This contribution, was largest in 1995, at 5.2 out of 9.0 years, and subsequently declined in parallel with the average sex difference in life expectancy. The average contribution of smoking-attributable mortality was especially large in North-Western Europe around 1975; in Southern Europe around 1985; and in Eastern Europe around 1990–1995, when smoking-attributable mortality reached maximum levels among men, but was still low among women. The observed parallel decline from 1995 onwards in the sex differences in e0 and the absolute contribution of smoking to this sex difference suggests that this recent decline in the sex difference in e0 can be almost fully explained by historical changes in sex differences in smoking, and, consequently, smoking-attributable mortality. In line with the progression of the smoking epidemic, the sex differences in life expectancy in Europe are expected to further decline in the future.

[Gender equality and the gender gap in life expectancy in Germany]

BACKGROUND

The gender gap in life expectancy is documented worldwide with lower life expectancy in male new-borns. International studies have shown that the gender gap in life expectancy varies markedly with gender inequality.

OBJECTIVES

The paper addresses the questions: (1) whether there are life-expectancy differences between the federal states and whether the extent of gender equality at federal level is associated with (2) gender differences in life expectancy and (3) the life expectancy of women and men.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The Gender Inequality Index (GII) developed by the United Nations Development Project was calculated using data from the federal states. Using linear regressions, GII was associated with the gender gap in life expectancy as well as with life expectancy in males and females.

RESULTS

The GII varies between 0.065 (Bavaria) and 0.117 (Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) and the gender gap in life expectancy differs by almost two years within Germany. We found a correlation between the gender difference in life expectancy and GII (R² linear = 0.848) as well as between GII and life expectancy of male (R² linear = 0.700), but not female newborns (R² linear = 0.102). The association remains if GDP is taken into account as an indicator of economic power.

CONCLUSIONS

Gender equality seems to be positively related to the life expectancy of men. This can be explained by the reduced importance of male gender stereotypes and associated risk behaviors. The requirements for gender-differentiated interventions formulated in the Prevention Act (Präventionsgesetz) are highly significant.

Avoidable Cancer Mortality in Germany Since Reunification: Regional Variation and Sex Differences

Background: Regional comparisons of cancer-related mortality in Germany are traditionally focused on disparities between East and West Germany. Recent improvements in all-cause and cancer-related mortality show a diverse regional pattern beyond the known East-West mortality divide. A generalized approach of the avoidable/amenable cancer mortality definition is applied for suitable regional comparisons of long-term trends. Methods: Standardized death rates of preventable and amenable cancer mortality for men and women were computed for the period 1990-2014 to observe sex-specific excess mortality due to specific cancers after the German reunification. For regional comparison, three German super regions were defined in Eastern, Northwestern, and Southwestern Germany to account for similarities in long-term regional premature and cancer-related mortality patterns, socioeconomic characteristics, and age structure. Results: Since preventable and amenable cancer mortality rates typically have driven the recent trends in premature mortality, our findings underline the current regional pattern of preventable cancer mortality for males with disadvantages for Eastern Germany, and advantages for Southwestern Germany. Among women, the preventable cancer mortality has increased in Northwestern and Southwestern Germany after the German reunification but has decreased in Eastern Germany and converged to the pattern of Southwestern Germany. Similar patterns can be observed for females in amenable cancer mortality. Conclusions: Although the "traditional" East-West gap in preventable cancer mortality was still evident in males, our study provides some hints for more regional diversity in avoidable cancer mortality in women. An establishing north-south divide in avoidable cancer mortality could alter the future trends in regional cancer-related mortality in Germany.

Sex disparities in premature adult mortality in Estonia 1995-2016: a national register-based study

OBJECTIVES

To quantify sex disparities in cause-specific premature adult mortality in Estonia, to determine the causes of death with the largest differences, to provide insight into related behaviours and to offer some guidance to public health policy-makers based on the results of the study.

DESIGN

A national register-based study.

SETTING

Estonia.

DATA

Individual records of deaths at ages 20-69 years in 1995-2016 from the Estonian causes of death register; data on tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption in the adult population in 1996-2016 from the biennial postal survey of health behaviour.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Overall and cause-specific age-standardised mortality rates, average annual percentage changes in mortality, and cause-specific men-to-women mortality rate ratios were calculated. In addition, the age-standardised prevalence proportions of tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption and men-to-women prevalence rate ratios were determined.

RESULTS

Overall premature adult mortality decreased considerably during 1995-2016, but no reduction was observed with respect to the large relative sex disparities. In circulatory disease mortality, the disparities widened significantly over time. Extremely high mortality rate ratios were observed for cancer of the upper aerodigestive tract and for lung cancer. There was a stable, more than fivefold male excess mortality from external causes. A fourfold male disadvantage was evident for alcohol poisoning, mental disorders due to alcohol and alcohol-related degeneration of the nervous system as a group. The prevalence of tobacco smoking and harmful alcohol consumption among men exceeded that among women by factors of two and six, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Even though premature adult mortality has markedly decreased over time, there has been no success in diminishing the large sex differences in the mortality patterns, mostly associated with smoking and excessive alcohol consumption, both more prevalent among men. Estonia needs a comprehensive and consistent alcohol policy while maintaining and further developing antitobacco measures.

The contribution of smoking-related deaths to the gender gap in life expectancy in Sweden between 1997 and 2016

Aims: In recent decades, smoking-related mortality has declined among men and increased among women in Sweden. We estimate the contribution of smoking-related deaths to the narrowing of the gender gap in life expectancy in Sweden between 1997 and 2016. Methods: We extracted population data on deaths and population under risk on the entire Swedish population aged 25 years and over for the period 1997-2016. Smoking-related mortality was assessed using an indirect method based on lung cancer mortality. We then estimated the contribution of smoking to the gender gap in life expectancy by comparing the observed life expectancies to life expectancies excluding smoking-related deaths. Results: The gender gap in life expectancy was 5.0 years in 1997 and 3.4 years in 2016. The gender gap narrowed by 1.6 years, of which 0.6 years were attributable to smoking-related deaths. Conclusions: The combination of decreasing smoking-related mortality among men and increasing smoking-related mortality among women in Sweden accounted for almost 40% of the narrowing of the gender gap in life expectancy during the period 1997-2016.

Alcohol and gender gaps in life expectancy in eight Central and Eastern European countries

Background

Gender differences in life expectancy (LE) have been traditionally large in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), and alcohol has been hypothesized to be one of its main determinants. We examined the role of alcohol in gender differences in LE in Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Russia and Ukraine, and changes in this role from 1965 until 2012.

Methods

We decomposed the gender differences in LE at birth into alcohol- and non-alcohol-related mortality. We examined causes of death wholly attributable to alcohol over the whole period, and estimated from 1990 onwards additional alcohol-attributable mortality by using alcohol-attributable fractions from the Global Burden of Disease study.

Results

In the eight CEE countries, women's advantage in LE relative to men increased from 7.3 years on average in 1965 to 10.0 years on average in 2012. All alcohol-attributable mortality contributed 1.9 years on average (uncertainty intervals (UI): 1.2-2.5; 18.8%) to the gender differences from 1990 to 2012. Its relative contribution increased in most countries until around 2005, and declined thereafter, resulting in a contribution of at least 15% in 2012. The absolute contribution of alcohol to the LE gender gap was strongly correlated with the overall LE gender differences (Pearson's r > 0.75), except in Poland and Estonia.

Conclusions

Despite recent declines, the contribution of sex differences in excessive alcohol consumption to the LE gender gap is substantial, and should not be neglected. Tackling gender differences in alcohol consumption and alcohol-attributable mortality would contribute to further progress in reducing mortality.

Mortality and life expectancy forecast for (comparatively) high mortality countries

Background

The Lee–Carter method and its later variants are widely accepted extrapolative methods for forecasting mortality and life expectancy in industrial countries due to their simplicity and availability of high quality long time series data.

Objective

We compared and contrasted mortality forecasting models for higher mortality regimes that lack long time series data of good quality, which is common in several Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries.

Data and methods

We utilized seven different variants of the Lee–Carter method and coherent mortality forecasts of various CEE countries, and the Bayesian Hierarchical Model used by the United Nations to produce probabilistic forecasts. The data of nine CEE countries with comparatively higher mortality have been considered.

Results

The performance of the forecasting models for the nine CEE countries was found to be lower than that observed for low-mortality countries. No model gives uniquely best performance for all the nine CEE countries. Most of the LC variants produced lower forecasts of life expectancies than current life expectancy values for Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine. A coherent mortality forecast could not overcome the limitations of single population forecasting techniques due to increasing mortality differences between these countries over the fitting period (mortality divergence). In the same context, the use of the probabilistic forecasting technique from the Bayesian framework resulted in a better forecast than some of the extrapolative methods but also produced a wider prediction interval for several countries. The more detailed analysis for Hungary indicates that a better fit of certain forecasting methods may occur in the later part of the life span rather than the whole life span.

Conclusion

These findings imply the necessity of inventing a new forecasting technique for high-mortality countries.

Why is the gender gap in life expectancy decreasing? The impact of age- and cause-specific mortality in Sweden 1997-2014

OBJECTIVES

To enhance the understanding of the current increase in life expectancy and decreasing gender gap in life expectancy.

METHODS

We obtained data on underlying cause of death from the National Board of Health and Welfare in Sweden for 1997 and 2014 and used Arriaga's method to decompose life expectancy by age group and 24 causes of death.

RESULTS

Decreased mortality from ischemic heart disease had the largest impact on the increased life expectancy of both men and women and on the decreased gender gap in life expectancy. Increased mortality from Alzheimer's disease negatively influenced overall life expectancy, but because of higher female mortality, it also served to decrease the gender gap in life expectancy. The impact of other causes of death, particularly smoking-related causes, decreased in men but increased in women, also reducing the gap in life expectancy.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that a focus on overall changes in life expectancies may hide important differences in age- and cause-specific mortality. It also emphasizes the importance of addressing modifiable lifestyle factors to reduce avoidable mortality.

Ageing populations in the Nordic countries: Mortality and longevity from 1990 to 2014

Aims: Cross-country comparisons of mortality and longevity patterns of Nordic populations could contribute with novel insights into the compositional changes of these populations. We investigated three metrics of population ageing: the proportion of the population aged 75+ and 90+ years, the proportion of birth cohorts reaching 75 and 90 years, and life expectancy (LE) at age 75 and 90 years in Sweden, Norway, Iceland, Denmark and Finland, in the period 1990-2014. Methods: Demographic information was collected from national statistical databases and the Human Mortality Database. Results: All metrics on population ageing increased during the study period, but there were some cross-country variations. Finland experienced a notably steep increase in the proportion of 75+ and 90+ year olds compared to the other countries. Regarding the proportion reaching old ages, the Finnish lagged behind from the beginning, but females decreased this difference. The Danes were more similar to the other countries at the beginning, but did not experience the same increase over time. Gender-specific LE at age 75 and 90 years was similar overall in the five countries. Conclusions: Developments in cross-country variation suggest that survival until old age has become more similar for Finnish females and more different for Danish males and females compared with the other countries in recent decades. This provides perspectives on the potential to improve longevity in Denmark and Finland. Similarities in LE in old age suggest that expected mortality in old age has been more similar throughout the study period.

[The changing sex differences in life expectancy in Spain (1980-2012): decomposition by age and cause]

OBJECTIVE

To calculate and analyse the contributions of changes in mortality by age groups and selected causes of death to sex differences in life expectancy at birth in Spain from 1980 to 2012.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study with three time points (1980, 1995, and 2012). We used data from Human Cause-of-Death Database and Human Mortality Database. We use a decomposition method of the differences in life expectancy and gender differences in life expectancy from changes in mortality by 5-year age groups and causes of death between women and men.

RESULTS

From 1980 to 1995, the lower mortality of women from 25 years old, and the differences in mortality by HIV/AIDS, lung cancer, and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases contributed to the gap increase. From 1995 to 2012, greatest improvement in mortality of males under 74 years of age, and in improving male mortality from HIV/AIDS, acute myocardial infarction and traffic accidents contributed to the narrowing.

CONCLUSIONS

The difference in life expectancy at birth between men and women has decreased since 1995 due to a greater improvement in mortality from causes of death associated with risky behaviours and habits of the working age male population.

Life Course Changes in Smoking by Gender and Education: A Cohort Comparison Across France and the United States

Widening of educational disparities and a narrowing female advantage in mortality stem in good part from disparities in smoking. The changes in smoking and mortality disparities across cohorts and countries have been explained by an epidemic model of cigarette use but are also related to life course changes. To better describe and understand changing disparities over the life course, we compare age patterns of smoking in three cohorts and two nations (France and the United States) using smoking history measures from the 2010 French Health Barometer (N = 20,940) and the 2010 U.S. National Health Interview Survey Sample Adult File (N = 20,444). The results demonstrate statistically significant widening of gender and educational differences from adolescence to early and middle adulthood, thus accentuating the disparities already emerging during adolescence. In addition, the widening disparities over the life course have been changing across cohorts: Age differences in educational disparities have grown in recent cohorts (especially in France), while age differences in gender disparities have narrowed. The findings highlight the multiple sources of inequality in smoking and health in high-income nations.

The impact of cigarette smoking on life expectancy between 1980 and 2010: a global perspective

INTRODUCTION

Tobacco smoking is among the leading causes of preventable mortality worldwide. We assessed the impact of smoking on life expectancy worldwide between 1980 and 2010.

METHODS

We retrieved cause-specific mortality data from the WHO Mortality Database by sex, year and age for 63 countries with high or moderate quality data (1980-2010). Using the time of the peak of the smoking epidemic by country, relative risks from the three waves of the Cancer Prevention Study were applied to calculate the smoking impact ratio and population attributable fraction. Finally, we estimated the potential gain in life expectancy at age 40 if smoking-related deaths in middle age (40-79 years) were eliminated.

RESULTS

Currently, tobacco smoking is related to approximately 20% of total adult mortality in the countries in this study (24% in men and 12% in women). If smoking-related deaths were eliminated, adult life expectancy would increase on average by 2.4 years in men (0.1 in Uzbekistan to 4.8 years in Hungary) and 1 year in women (0.1 in Kyrgyzstan to 2.9 years in the USA). The proportion of smoking-related mortality among men has declined in most countries, but has increased in the most populous country in the world, that is, China from 4.6% to 7.3%. Increases in the impact of tobacco on life expectancy were observed among women in high-income countries.

CONCLUSIONS

Recent trends indicate a substantial rise in the population-level impact of tobacco smoking on life expectancy in women and in middle-income countries. High-quality local data are needed in most low-income countries.

Visualising variation in mortality rates across the life course and by sex, USA and comparator states, 1933-2010

BACKGROUND

Previous research showed that younger adult males in the USA have, since the 1950s, died at a faster rate than females of the same age. In this paper, we quantify this difference, and explore possible explanations for the differences at different ages and in different years.

METHODS

Using data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD), the number of additional male deaths per 10 000 female deaths was calculated for each year from 1933 to 2010, and for each year of age from 0 to 60 years, for the USA, and a number of other countries for comparison. The data were explored visually using shaded contour plots.

RESULTS

Gender differences in excess mortality have increased. Coming of age (between the ages of 15 and 25 years of age) is especially perilous for men relative to women now compared with the past in the USA; the visualisations highlight this change as important.

CONCLUSIONS

Sex differences in mortality risks at various ages are not static. While women may today have an advantage when it comes to life expectancy, in the USA, this has greatly increased since the 1930s. Just as young adulthood for women has been made safer through safer antenatal and childbirth practices, changes in public policy can make the social environment safer for men.