Global trend of aetiology-based primary liver cancer incidence from 1990 to 2030: a modelling study

Trends in prevalence, mortality, and risk factors of dementia among the oldest-old adults in the United States: the role of the obesity epidemic

The oldest-old population, those aged ≥ 80 years, is the fastest-growing group in the United States (US), grappling with an increasingly heavy burden of dementia. We aimed to dissect the trends in dementia prevalence, mortality, and risk factors, and predict future levels among this demographic. Leveraging data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we examined the trends in dementia prevalence, mortality, and risk factors (with a particular focus on body mass index, BMI) for US oldest-old adults. Through decomposition analysis, we identified key population-level contributors to these trends. Predictive modeling was employed to estimate future prevalence and mortality levels over the next decade. Between 1990 and 2019, the number of dementia cases and deaths among the oldest-old in the US increased by approximately 1.37 million and 60,000 respectively. The population growth and aging were highlighted as the primary drivers of this increase. High BMI emerged as a growing risk factor. Females showed a disproportionately higher dementia burden, characterized by a unique risk factor profile, including BMI. Predictions for 2030 anticipate nearly 4 million dementia cases and 160,000 related deaths, with a marked increase in prevalence and mortality anticipated among those aged 80-89. The past 30 years have witnessed a notable rise in both the prevalence and mortality of dementia among the oldest-old in the US, accompanied by a significant shift in risk factors, with obesity taking a forefront position. Targeted age and sex-specific public health strategies that address obesity control are needed to mitigate the dementia burden effectively.

Global, regional, and national burdens of leukemia from 1990 to 2019: A systematic analysis of the global burden of disease in 2019 based on the APC model

BACKGROUND

Leukemia is the tenth most common cause of cancer death worldwide and one of the most important causes of disability. To understand the current status and changing trends of the disease burden of leukemia at the global, regional, and national levels, and to provide a scientific basis for the development of leukemia prevention and treatment strategies.

METHODS

Based on open data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019), R software was used to calculate estimated annual percentage changes to estimate trends in the age-standardized incidence (ASIR) and the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate due to leukemia and its major subtypes from 1990 to 2019.

RESULTS

In 2019, globally, the number of incidences and DALYs of leukemia were 643.6 × 103 (587.0 × 103, 699.7 × 103) and 11,657.5 × 103 (10529.1 × 103, 12700.7 × 103), respectively. The ASIR (estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) = -0.37, 95%UI -0.46 to -0.28) and the age-standardized DALY rate (EAPC = -1.72, 95%UI -1.80 to -1.65) of leukemia showed a decreasing trend from 1990 to 2019. The APC model analysis showed that the age effect of leukemia risk was a "U"-shaped distribution of relative risk (RR) with increasing age from 1990 to 2019, globally. The time effect was an increase in incidence rate with increasing years but a decrease in DALY rate with increasing years. The cohort effects of both incidence and DALY rates tended to increase and then decrease with the development of the birth cohort. In 1990 and 2019, smoking, high body-mass index, occupational exposure to benzene, and occupational exposure to formaldehyde were risk factors for DALY in leukemia, especially in areas with high SDI.

CONCLUSIONS

From 1990 to 2019, the disease burden of leukemia showed a decreasing trend, but it is worth noting that its overall severity is still very high. The disease burden of leukemia varies greatly from region to region, and exclusive strategies for the prevention and treatment of leukemia should be developed according to the economic and cultural development of each region.

Worldwide burden of liver cancer due to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis from 1990 to 2019: insights from the Global Burden of Disease study

Introduction

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) is increasingly becoming a prevalent cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Our study examines the burden of MASH-related HCC globally, regionally, and nationally, along with associated risk factors from 1990 to 2019, considering variables such as age, sex, and socioeconomic status.

Objective

We aimed to report the global, regional, and national burden of liver cancer due to MASH and its attributable risk factors between 1990 and 2019, by age, sex, and sociodemographic index (SDI).

Methods

Utilizing the Global Burden of Disease 2019 project, we analyzed data on prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for liver cancer attributable to MASH across 204 countries. We provided counts and rates per 100,000 population, including 95% uncertainty intervals.

Results

In 2019, there were 46.8 thousand cases of MASH-related HCC, leading to 34.7 thousand deaths, and 795.8 thousand DALYs globally. While the prevalence increased by 19.8% since 1990, the death and DALY rates decreased by 5.3% and 15.1%, respectively. The highest prevalence was in High-income Asia Pacific, with the greatest increases observed in Australasia, Central Asia, and High-income North America. Southern Sub-Saharan Africa reported the highest death rate, while the lowest rates were in parts of Latin America, Central Sub-Saharan Africa, and Eastern Europe. DALY rates were the highest in Southern Sub-Saharan Africa and the lowest in Tropical Latin America.

Discussion

The burden of MASH-related HCC is expected to rise slightly over the next decade. This disease, which is not associated with the SDI, remains a major public health problem. In addition, the escalating rates of obesity, demographic shifts, and an aging population could position MASH as a leading factor in liver cancer cases, surpassing viral hepatitis. It is imperative, therefore, that the forthcoming years see the implementation of strategic interventions aimed at the early detection and prevention of liver cancer associated with MASH.

The overall and smoking-attributable burden of multiple sclerosis among older adults aged 65-89 years from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2040

Background

The global prevalence of aging individuals with multiple sclerosis (MS) is increasing. This study aimed to assess the burden and trends of overall and smoking-attributable MS in older adults aged 65-89 years at the global, regional, and national levels.

Methods

The number and rates of years of life lived with disability (YLD) and years of life lost (YLL) due to MS for older adults in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in the age-standardized YLD and YLL rates were calculated to quantify the temporal trends. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the trends from 2020 to 2040.

Results

In 2019, there were an estimated 80,040 (95% uncertainty interval 57,534 to 103,608) YLD and 139,132 (107,632 to 161,172) YLL caused by MS among older adults globally. The age-standardized YLD and YLL rates decreased by an average of -0.21% (95% CI -0.26 to -0.16) and - 0.2% (95% CI -0.26 to -0.14) per year for overall MS from 1990 to 2019, respectively. The number of YLL globally in 2019 was 7,891 (5,003 to 10,991) and 15,667 (10,833 to 20,076) due to smoking-attributable MS. The age-standardized YLD and YLL rates decreased by an annual average of -1.14% (95% CI -1.25 to -1.04) and - 1.15% (95% CI -1.27 to -1.03) for MS attributable to smoking. Although the global age-standardized rates of YLD and YLL for MS among older adults declined from 1990 to 2019, many regions showed increases. The largest increase in age-standardized YLD rate of MS was observed in East Asia (average annual change 1.62% [95% CI: 1.56 to 1.68]), while the largest increase in the age-standardized YLL rate occurred in High-income North America (1.74% [1.53 to 1.96]). Nationally, the age-standardized YLD and YLL rates for overall and smoking-attributable MS increased exponentially with increases in SDI level (all model p < 0.001). Furthermore, projections have also indicated an expected decrease in the age-standardized rates of YLD and YLL of MS in the elderly population from 2020 to 2040.

Conclusion

Tracking trends in MS burden among older adults provides insights into the potential shifts in disease patterns over time. The findings lay the groundwork for informed decision-making in public health and healthcare delivery, aiming to ensure that older adults with MS receive appropriate care and support.

Comparison of secular trends of leukemia in China and the United States from 1990 to 2021 and their projections for the next 15 years

Background

Leukemia imposes a large healthcare burden both in China and the United States (US). The disease burden differs greatly between the two countries, but related research is limited. We explored the differences in leukemia incidence and mortality between China and the US.

Methods

Data on leukemia in China and the US from 1990 to 2021 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database. Incidence and mortality were used to estimate the disease burden, and joinpoint regression was performed to compare their secular trends. We used an age-period-cohort model to analyze the effects of age, period, and birth cohort and project future trends in the next 15 years.

Results

In 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of leukemia were lower in China than in the US. However, the incidence and mortality of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) was considerably higher in China. In the past decades, the ASIR showed decreased tendency in the US, while ASIR showed stable in China. The ASDR tended to decrease in both countries from 1990 to 2021. Males have higher rates of incidence and mortality than females in two countries. The age effects showed that children and older individuals have higher RRs for incidence and mortality in China, while the RRs for incidence and mortality in the US particularly increased in the older population. The disease burden of leukemia in children is obviously greater in China. The ASIRs and ASDRs of leukemia will continue to decline in the next 15 years in China and the US, with the US experiencing a more obvious downtrend.

Conclusions

Over the past decades, the ASDRs in two countries both tended to decrease. And compared to the US, China had lower leukemia incidence and mortality, However, the ASIRs in China tended toward stable, which it was showed downtrend in the US. Children have obviously greater RRs for incidence and mortality in China. The incidence and mortality will decrease continuously in two countries. Effective intervention measures are needed to reduce the burden of leukemia.

Socioeconomic characteristics, cancer mortality, and universal health coverage: A global analysis

BACKGROUND

Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all individuals attaining accessible health interventions at an affordable cost. We examined current patterns and temporal trends of cancer mortality and UHC across sociodemographic index (SDI) settings, and quantified these association.

METHODS

We used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 and Our World in Data. The UHC effective coverage index was obtained to assess the potential population health gains delivered by health systems. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) with a 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated to quantify the trend of cancer age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR). A generalized linear model was applied to estimate the association between ASMR and UHC.

FINDINGS

The high (EAPC = -0.9% [95% CI, -1.0%, -0.9%]) and high-middle (-0.9% [-1.0%, -0.8%]) SDI regions had the fastest decline in ASMR (per 100,000) for total cancers from 1990 to 2019. The overall UHC effective coverage index increased by 27.9% in the high-SDI quintile to 62.2% in the low-SDI quintile. A negative association was observed between ASMR for all-cancer (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 0.87 [0.76, 0.99]), stomach (0.73 [0.56, 0.95]), breast (0.64 [0.52, 0.79]), cervical (0.42 [0.30, 0.60]), lip and oral cavity (0.55 [0.40, 0.75]), and nasopharynx (0.42 [0.26, 0.68]) cancers and high UHC level (the lowest as the reference).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings strengthen the evidence base for achieving UHC to improve cancer outcomes.

FUNDING

This work is funded by the China National Natural Science Foundation and Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Innovation Fund for Medical Science.

Global burden and attributable risk factors of breast cancer in young women: historical trends from 1990 to 2019 and forecasts to 2030 by sociodemographic index regions and countries

Background

Breast cancer in young women (BCY) is much less common but has significant health sequelae and societal costs. We aimed to evaluate the global and regional burden of breast cancer in women aged 15-39 years from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We collected detailed data on breast cancer from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) Data Resources. The age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardised disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR), and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were used to assess the disease burden of BCY. The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model was used to forecast disease burden from 2020 to 2030.

Results

From 1990 to 2019, significant increases in ASIR were found for BCY (EAPC = 0.59, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.5 to 0.68), whereas decreases in ASMR (EAPC = -0.41, 95% CI = -0.53 to -0.3) and ASDR (EAPC = -0.35, 95% CI = -0.46 to -0.24). Across countries with varying sociodemographic indexes (SDI), all regions showed an upward trend in BCY morbidity, except for countries with a high SDI. While mortality and DALYs rates have decreased in countries with high, high-middle, and middle SDI, they have increased in countries with low-middle and low SDI. Countries with lower SDIs are projected to bear the greatest burden of BCY over the next decade, including both low and low-middle categories. Alcohol use was the main risk factor attributed to BCY deaths in most countries, while exposure to second hand smoke was the predominant risk factor for BCY deaths in middle and low-middle SDI countries.

Conclusions

The burden of breast cancer in young women is on the rise worldwide, and there are significant regional differences. Countries with a low-middle or low SDI face even more challenges, as they experienced a more significant and increasing BCY burden than countries with higher SDIs.

Age-specific incidence trends of 32 cancers in China, 1983 to 2032: Evidence from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents

The long-term incidence trends of 32 cancers in China remained unclear. Cancer statistics for young population were often presented in aggregate, masking important heterogeneity. We aimed to assess the incidence trends of 32 cancers in China from 1983 to 2032, stratified by sex and age groups. Data on cancer incidence from 1983 to 2017 were extracted from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volumes VI-XII. The age-period-cohort model was utilized to assess age and birth cohort effects on the temporal trends of 32 cancers in China, while the Bayesian age-period-cohort model was utilized to project future trends from 2018 to 2032. An increase in cohort effects is observed in some cancers such as thyroid and kidney cancers. Eight of the 12 obesity-related cancers may rise in the 0-14 age group, and nine in the 15-39 age group from 2013 to 2032. Liver and stomach cancers show an increasing trend among the younger population, contrasting with the observed declining trend in the middle-aged population. There has been a significant rise in the proportions of cervical cancer among females aged 40-64 (4.3%-19.1%), and prostate cancer among males aged 65+ (1.1%-11.8%) from 1983 to 2032. Cancer spectrum in China is shifting toward that in developed countries. Incidence rates of most cancers across different age groups may increase in recent cohorts. It is essential to insist effective preventive interventions, and promote healthier lifestyles, such as reducing obesity, especially among younger population.

Changing Trends in the Global Disease Burden of Pancreatic Cancer from 1990 to 2030

AIM

To explore the global burden of pancreatic cancer (PC) from 1990 to 2019, evaluate independent effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of PC, and predict the incidence of PC in the next decade.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We calculated the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), and age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of PC. Joinpoint Poisson regression analysis was performed to identify the temporal trends in the incidence of PC. Then, a two-factor model was constructed using the Poisson log-linear model, and a three-factor model was constructed using the intrinsic estimator (IE) method to estimate the independent effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of PC. Finally, the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was also used to predict the age-standardized global incidence rate of PC and age-standardized new PC cases from 2020 to 2030.

RESULTS

Overall, the DALY rate, ASMR, ASIR, and ASPR all increased from 1990 to 2019. The ASIR in males increased from 6 per 100,000 in 1990 to 7.5 per 100,000 in 2019 and was predicted to rise to 8.2 per 100,000 by 2030. Meanwhile, the ASIR in females rose from 4.5 per 100,000 in 1990 to 5.7 per 100,000 in 2019 and was predicted to rise to 6.3 per 100,000 by 2030. The age effect on the incidence of PC showed sharp increasing trends from 40 to 79 years. The period effect continuously increased with advancing periods, but the cohort effect showed substantial decreasing trends.

CONCLUSIONS

The age and period effect on the incidence of PC presented increasing trends, while the cohort effect showed decreasing trends. All indicators of the global burden of PC are increasing in both males and females, and the ASIR is predicted to rise at an alarming rate by 2030. Thus, timely screening and intervention are recommended, especially for earlier birth cohorts at high risk.

Ensemble learning enhances the precision of preliminary detection of primary hepatocellular carcinoma based on serological and demographic indices

Primary hepatocellular carcinoma (PHC) is associated with high rates of morbidity and malignancy in China and throughout the world. In clinical practice, a combination of ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) measurement is frequently employed for initial screening. However, the accuracy of this approach often falls short of the desired standard. Consequently, this study aimed to investigate the enhancement of precision of preliminary detection of PHC by ensemble learning techniques. To achieve this, 712 patients with PHC and 1887 healthy controls were enrolled for the assessment of four ensemble learning methods, namely, Random Forest (RF), LightGBM, Xgboost, and Catboost. A total of eleven characteristics, comprising nine serological indices and two demographic indices, were selected from the participants for use in detecting PHC. The findings identified an optimal feature subset consisting of eight features, namely AFP, albumin (ALB), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), platelets (PLT), age, alkaline phosphatase (ALP), hemoglobin (Hb), and body mass index (BMI), that achieved the highest classification accuracy of 96.62%. This emphasizes the importance of the collective use of these features in PHC diagnosis. In conclusion, the results provide evidence that the integration of serological and demographic indices together with ensemble learning models, can contribute to the precision of preliminary diagnosis of PHC.

Hepatocellular carcinoma-the role of the underlying liver disease in clinical practice

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common causes of cancer-related mortality. This particular type of cancer has the distinctive characteristic of mostly happening in individuals with an underlying liver disease. This makes the management of patients more challenging, since physicians must take into consideration two different conditions, the chronic liver disease and the tumor. The underlying liver disease has several implications in clinical practice, because different kinds of chronic liver disease can lead to varying degrees of risk of developing HCC, obstacles in surveillance, and differences in the efficacy of the treatment against HCC. A shift in the prevalence of liver diseases has been evident over the last few years, with viral hepatitis gradually losing the leading position as cause of HCC and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease gaining importance. Therefore, in an era of personalized medicine, it is imperative that physicians are aware of the underlying liver disease of individuals with HCC and its impact in the management of their tumors.

Ileitis promotes MASLD progression via bile acid modulation and enhanced TGR5 signaling in ileal CD8+ T cells

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Clinical evidence substantiates a link between inflammatory bowel disease, particularly Crohn's disease (CD), and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). This study aims to explore the underlying molecular mechanisms responsible for this association.

METHODS

MASLD was induced by administering high-fat and western diets, while inflammatory bowel disease was induced using DSS (dextran sulfate sodium) and the Il10 knockout (KO) mouse model. The investigation into the role of secondary bile acids (SBAs) in ileitis involved employing metagenomic sequencing, conducting metabolomics detection, performing fecal microbiota transplantation, and constructing CD8+ T cell-specific gene knockout mice.

RESULTS

In MASLD+DSS and Il10 KO MASLD mice, we observed ileitis characterized by T-cell infiltration and activation in the terminal ileum. This condition resulted in decreased bile acid levels in the portal vein and liver, inhibited hepatic farnesoid X receptor (FXR) activation, and exacerbated MASLD. Metagenomic and metabolomic analysis of ileal contents revealed increased Clostridium proliferation and elevated SBA levels in MASLD-associated ileitis. Experiments using germ-free mice and fecal microbiota transplantation suggested an association between SBA and MASLD-related ileitis. In vitro, SBAs promoted CD8+ T-cell activation via the TGR5, mTOR, and oxidative phosphorylation pathways. In vivo, TGR5 KO in CD8+ T cells effectively alleviated ileitis and reversed the MASLD phenotype. Clinical data further supported these findings, demonstrating a positive correlation between ileitis and MASLD.

CONCLUSION

MASLD-induced changes in intestinal flora result in elevated levels of SBAs in the ileum. In the presence of a compromised intestinal barrier, this leads to severe CD8+ T cell-mediated ileitis through the TGR5/mTOR/oxidative phosphorylation signaling pathway. Ileitis-induced tissue damage impairs enterohepatic circulation, inhibits hepatic FXR activation, and exacerbates the MASLD phenotype.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Our study provides a comprehensive investigation of the interplay and underlying mechanisms connecting ileitis and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). Secondary bile acids produced by intestinal bacteria act as the critical link between MASLD and ileitis. Secondary bile acids exert their influence by disrupting liver lipid metabolism through the promotion of CD8+ T cell-mediated ileitis. In future endeavors to prevent and treat MASLD, it is essential to thoroughly account for the impact of the intestinal tract, especially the ileum, on liver function via the enterohepatic circulation.

Type 1 and type 2 diabetes mortality burden: Predictions for 2030 based on Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis of China and global mortality burden from 1990 to 2019

AIMS

This study assessed diabetes (type 1 and type 2) mortality in China and globally from 1990 to 2019, predicting the next decade's trends.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data came from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. The annual percentage change (AAPC) in age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) for diabetes (type 1 and type 2) during 1990-2019 was calculated. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model predicted diabetes (type 1 and type 2) mortality from 2020 to 2030.

RESULTS

In China, type 1 diabetes deaths declined from 6,005 to 4,504 cases (AAPC -2.827), while type 2 diabetes deaths rose from 64,084 to 168,388 cases (AAPC -0.763) from 1990 to 2019. Globally, type 1 diabetes deaths increased from 55,417 to 78,236 cases (AAPC 0.223), and type 2 diabetes deaths increased from 606,407 to 1,472,934 cases (AAPC 0.365). Both China and global trends showed declining type 1 diabetes ASMR. However, female type 2 diabetes ASMR in China initially increased and then decreased, while males had a rebound trend. Peak type 1 diabetes deaths were in the 40-44 age group, and type 2 diabetes peaked in those over 70. BAPC predicted declining diabetes (type 1 and type 2) mortality burden in China and globally over the next 10 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Type 2 diabetes mortality remained high in China and globally despite decreasing type 1 diabetes mortality over 30 years. Predictions suggest a gradual decrease in diabetes mortality over the next decade, highlighting the need for continued focus on type 2 diabetes prevention and treatment.

Colorectal cancer and its attributable risk factors in East Asia, 1990-2030

BACKGROUND

The disease burden of colorectal cancer in East Asia has been at a high level. However, the epidemiological characteristics of the disease burden in this region have not been systematically studied.

METHOD

Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 program. Joinpoint analysis was used to identify long-term trends in mortality of colorectal cancer. Independent effects of age, period, and cohort were detected by the age-period-cohort model. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was performed to predict the burden of colorectal cancer across East Asia by 2030.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) showed upward trends in mainland China (1.05 [95% confidence interval (CI)], 0.82, 1.28) as well as Taiwan Province of China (1.81 [95% CI], 1.51, 2.10) but downward in Japan (-0.60 [95% CI], -0.70, -0.49) (P < 0.05). Attributable risk factors for colorectal cancer in East Asia remained stable over 30 years, while the risk of metabolic factors is noteworthy in the future. In the next decade, the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of colorectal cancer in China was predicted to surpass that of Japan and South Korea in expectation.

CONCLUSION

The mortality of colorectal cancer is escalating in developing countries, while it is gradually declining in high-income countries across East Asia. Nonetheless, the disease burden of colorectal cancer in high-income countries remains substantial level.

Epidemiology of 369 diseases and injuries attributable to 84 risk factors: 1990-2019 with 2040 projection

The global burden of diseases and injuries poses complex and pressing challenges. This study analyzed 369 diseases and injuries attributed to 84 risk factors globally from 1990 to 2019, projecting trends to 2040. In 2019, global risks caused 35 million deaths. Non-communicable diseases were responsible for 8.2 million deaths, primarily from air pollution (5.5 million). Cardiovascular disease from air pollution had a high age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate (1,073.40). Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused 1.4 million deaths, mainly due to unsafe water and sanitation. Occupational risks resulted in 184,269 transport-related deaths. Behavioral risks caused 21.6 million deaths, with dietary factors causing 6.9 million cardiovascular deaths. Diabetes linked to sugar-sweetened beverages showed significant growth (1990-2019). Metabolic risks led to 18.6 million deaths. Projections to 2040 indicated persistent challenges, emphasizing the urgent need for targeted interventions and policies to alleviate the global burden of diseases and injuries.

Mortality burden and future projections of major risk factors for esophageal cancer in China from 1990 to 2019

OBJECTIVE

This study, based on Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data, aimed to report the long-term trend in mortality rates caused by risk factors for esophageal cancer (EC) in China from 1990 to 2019 and predict the burden of EC mortality caused by these risk factors over the next 15 years.

METHODS

We examined six risk factors that influenced EC mortality rates in China and their respective rankings. Furthermore, we analyzed the number of deaths and crude mortality rates (CMR) caused by these risk factors for both sexes and different age groups. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and the number of deaths across all age groups were also analyzed. Finally, we utilized the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model to predict the trends in ASMR burden caused by these risk factors in the future.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the percentage changes in ASMR for EC caused by the six risk factors in China were as follows: smoking (- 33.4%), alcohol consumption (- 23.0%), low fruit intake (- 73.6%), low vegetable intake (- 96.0%), high Body Mass Index (BMI) (25.1%), and tobacco chewing (- 32.8%). In 2019, the top three risk factors contributing to EC ASMR in China were smoking, alcohol consumption, and high BMI. Overall, the ASMR for EC in China fluctuated and declined from 1990 to 2019. The most common risk factors for males were smoking and alcohol consumption, while low fruit intake and high BMI were the most common risk factors for females. The impact of these risk factors on EC mortality increased with age, except for the elderly population. BAPC analysis indicated that the influence of these risk factors on ASMR was expected to remain relatively stable in the next 15 years, suggesting a continued significant burden of EC.

CONCLUSION

The projected burden of EC mortality in China was expected to continue increasing steadily over the next 15 years, highlighting the pressing need for disease control measures. To alleviate this burden, targeted prevention and control policies addressing risk factors for EC such as smoking, alcohol consumption, and high BMI are necessary.

Incidence trends of primary liver cancer in different geographical regions of China from 1978 to 2012 and projections to 2032: An age-period-cohort analysis

China accounted for 45.3% of new cases of primary liver cancer (PLC) worldwide in 2020. While variations in PLC incidence between different regions of China and decreasing incidence in overall China have been reported, incidence patterns have not been thoroughly explored by region. We examined the nearly status and temporal trends of PLC incidence in different geographical regions in China and project future trends. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) was estimated for 1978 to 2012 by different geographical regions and gender in China. Age-period-cohort model was adopted to evaluate age and birth cohort effects on the temporal trend of five registries of China (Hong Kong, Shanghai, Jiashan, Harbin and Zhongshan), Bayesian age-period-cohort model was adopted to project future trends for 2013 to 2032. PLC incidence in China exhibits marked geographical disparity, with the highest incidence in Southwest China, and gender differences being particularly pronounced in South China. While other registries exhibited decreasing trend, Zhongshan exhibited an increasing trend, with the cohort effect showing a marked upward trend for females born in 1916 to 1949 and males born in 1916 to 1962. During 2013 to 2032, the ASR appears to increase by 86.9% for men and 40.0% for women in Zhongshan, while the remaining registries will decline by around 50%. Since the high incidence of hepatitis B virus infection in early birth cohort, recent rise of nonviral risk factors and the severe aging of the Chinese population, it may be critical to tailor future prevention and control strategies for PLC to the distribution of risk factors in different geographical regions.

Sialic Acid-Modified O-GlcNAc Transferase Inhibitor Liposome Presents Antitumor Effect in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

O-linked-N-acetylglucosaminylation (O-GlcNAcylation) plays a key role in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development, and the inhibition of O-GlcNAcylation has therapeutic potential. To decrease the systemic adverse events and increase targeting, we used sialic acid (SA)-decorated liposomes loaded with OSMI-1, an inhibitor of the O-GlcNAcylation, to further improve the anti-HCC effect. Fifty pairs of HCC tissue samples and the cancer genome atlas database were used to analyze the expression of O-GlcNAc transferase (OGT) and its effects on prognosis and immune cell infiltration. OSMI-1 cells were treated with SA and liposomes. Western blotting, immunofluorescence, cell proliferation assay, flow cytometry, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, immunohistochemistry, and tumorigenicity assays were used to investigate the antitumor effect of SA-modified OSMI-1 liposomes in vitro and in vivo. OGT was highly expressed in HCC tissues, negatively correlated with the degree of tumor infiltration of CD8+ and CD4+T cells and prognosis, and positively correlated with the degree of Treg cell infiltration. SA-modified OSMI-1 liposome (OSMI-1-SAL) was synthesized with stable hydrodynamic size distribution. Both in vitro and in vivo, OSMI-1-SAL exhibited satisfactory biosafety and rapid uptake by HCC cells. Compared to free OSMI-1, OSMI-1-SAL had a stronger capacity for suppressing the proliferation and promoting the apoptosis of HCC cells. Moreover, OSMI-1-SAL effectively inhibited tumor initiation and development in mice. OSMI-1-SAL also promoted the release of damage-associated molecular patterns, including anticalreticulin, high-mobility-group protein B1, and adenosine triphosphate, from HCC cells and further promoted the activation and proliferation of the CD8+ and CD4+T cells. In conclusion, the OSMI-1-SAL synthesized in this study can target HCC cells, inhibit tumor proliferation, induce tumor immunogenic cell death, enhance tumor immunogenicity, and promote antitumor immune responses, which has the potential for clinical application in the future.

Silencing of FAM111B inhibited proliferation, migration and invasion of hepatoma cells through activating p53 pathway

BACKGROUND

The function of Family with sequence similarity 111 member B (FAM111B) has been reported in multiple malignancies, but its involvement in occurrence and development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is still unclear.

PURPOSE

To investigate the role of FAM111B in HCC and explore the potential molecular mechanism.

METHODS

We examined the mRNA level of FAM111B via qPCR and protein level via immunohistochemistry in human HCC tissues. siRNA was used to construct a FAM111B-knockdown model in HCC cell lines. CCK-8, colony formation, transwell, and wound healing assays were performed to investigate the effect of FAM111B on proliferation, migration and invasion of HCC cell. Gene Set Enrichment Analysis, western blotting, and flow cytometry were carried out to find the related molecular mechanism.

RESULTS

Human HCC tumor tissues exhibited higher expression of FAM111B, and high FAM111B expression was associated with poor prognosis. Vitro assays demonstrated that knockdown of FAM111B greatly repressed proliferation, migration and invasion of HCC cells. Furthermore, silencing of FAM111B significantly resulted in cell cycle arrest at G0/G1 and downregulation of epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT)-related proteins MMP7 and MMP9 via activation of p53 pathway.

CONCLUSION

FAM111B played an essential role in promoting HCC development by regulation of p53 pathway.

Changing prevalence of chronic hepatitis B virus infection in China between 1973 and 2021: a systematic literature review and meta-analysis of 3740 studies and 231 million people

OBJECTIVE

China concentrates a large part of the global burden of HBV infection, playing a pivotal role in achieving the WHO 2030 global hepatitis elimination target.

METHODS

We searched for studies reporting HBV surface antigen (HBsAg) seroprevalence in five databases until January 2023. Eligible data were pooled using a generalised linear mixed model with random effects to obtain summary HBsAg seroprevalence. Linear regression was used to estimate annual percentage change (APC) and HBsAg prevalence in 2021.

RESULTS

3740 studies, including 231 million subjects, were meta-analysed. HBsAg seroprevalence for the general population decreased from 9.6% (95% CI 8.4 to 10.9%) in 1973-1984 to 3.0% (95% CI 2.1 to 3.9%) in 2021 (APC=-3.77; p<0.0001). Decreases were more pronounced in children <5 years (APC=-7.72; p<0.0001) and 5-18 years (-7.58; p<0.0001), than in people aged 19-59 years (-2.44; p<0.0001), whereas HBsAg seroprevalence increased in persons ≥60 years (2.84; p=0.0007). Significant decreases were observed in all six major Chinese regions, in both men (APC=-3.90; p<0.0001) and women (-1.82; p<0.0001) and in high-risk populations. An estimated 43.3 million (95% uncertainty interval 30.7-55.9) persons remained infected with HBV in China in 2021 (3.0%), with notable heterogeneity by region (<1.5% in North China to>6% in Taiwan and Hong Kong) and age (0.3%, 1.0%, 4.7% and 5.6% for <5 years, 5-18 years, 19-59 years and ≥60 years, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

China has experienced remarkable decreases in HBV infection over the last four decades, but variations in HBsAg prevalence persist in subpopulations. Ongoing prevention of HBV transmission is needed to meet HBV elimination targets by 2030.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

PROSPERO (CRD42021284217).

Global, regional, and national thyroid cancer age-period-cohort modeling and Bayesian predictive modeling studies: A systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study 2019

Objective

To analyze the changing trend of the global burden of thyroid cancer (TC) and its associated risk factors using data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 (GBD 2019).

Methods

This study utilized the GBD 2019 database to analyze the burden trend of TC in various regions and countries from 1990 to 2019, while also examining the age-period-cohort (APC) effect. Additionally, the study used Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) and predictive models to forecast TC incidence up until 2030.

Results

According to data from 2019, there were 233,846.64 (95 % UI 211,636.89-252,806.55) cases of TC worldwide. The burden of TC varies among regions and countries, with higher incidence rates observed in moderate and above SDI regions. Age and gender also play a role, with incidence rates peaking in the >95 age group for men and the 70-74 age group for women. Additionally, women have a higher incidence than men. The APC model revealed that the impact of age was most significant among individuals aged 95 years and older, while it was lowest among those aged 0-14 years. Additionally, the period effect showed a relatively low risk of morbidity with a Period RR < 0 during 1990-2004 and a high relative risk of morbidity with a Period RR > 0 during 2005-2019. Furthermore, the cohort effect demonstrated that the relative risk of developing the disease was lower before 1950 and higher after 1950. Predicted values show an increasing trend in thyroid incidence over the next 30 years.

Conclusions

The findings of this study highlight the continued significance of thyroid cancer as a global public health issue. It is crucial to develop targeted interventions that address the specific risk factors associated with thyroid cancer. Furthermore, health policies should be customized and adapted to the unique needs of different regions and populations.

Global, regional, and national time trends in cancer mortality attributable to high fasting plasma glucose: an age-period cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

High fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) is the fastest-growing risk factor for cancer deaths worldwide. We reported the cancer mortality attributable to HFPG at global, regional, and national levels over the past three decades and associations with age, period, and birth cohort.

METHODS

Data for this study were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, and we used age-period-cohort modelling to estimate age, cohort and period effects, as well as net drift (overall annual percentage change) and local drift (annual percentage change in each age group).

RESULTS

Over the past 30 years, the global age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) attributable to HFPG has increased by 27.8%. The ASMR in 2019 was highest in the male population in high sociodemographic index (SDI) areas (8.70; 95% CI, 2.23-18.04). The net drift for mortality was highest in the female population in low SDI areas (2.33; 95% CI, 2.12-2.55). Unfavourable period and cohort effects were found across all SDI quintiles. Cancer subtypes such as "trachea, bronchus, and lung cancers", "colon and rectal cancers", "breast cancer" and "pancreatic cancer" exhibited similar trends.

CONCLUSIONS

The cancer mortality attributable to HFPG has surged during the past three decades. Unfavourable age-period-cohort effects on mortality were observed across all SDI quintiles, and the cancer mortality attributable to HFPG is expected to continue to increase rapidly in the future, particularly in lower SDI locations. This is a grim global public health issue that requires immediate attention.

Trends in incidence and mortality for ovarian cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and its forecasted levels in 30 years

BACKGROUND

The specific long-term trend in ovarian cancer (OC) rates in China has been rarely investigated. We aimed to estimate the temporal trends in incidence and mortality rates from 1990 to 2019 in OC and predict the next 30-year levels. Data on the incidence, mortality rates, and the number of new cases and deaths cases due to OC in the China cohort from 1990 to 2019 were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Temporal trends in incidence and mortality rates were evaluated by joinpoint regression models. The incidence and mortality rates and the estimated number of cases from 2020 to 2049 were predicted using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

RESULTS

Consecutive increasing trends in age-standardized incidence (average annual percent change [AAPC] = 2.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.90-2.16; p < 0.001) and mortality (AAPC = 1.58; 95% CI, 1.38-1.78; p < 0.001) rates in OC were observed from 1990-2019 in China. Theoretically, both the estimated age-standardized (per 100,000 women) incidence (from 4.77 in 2019 to 8.95 in 2049) and mortality (from 2.88 in 2019 to 4.03 in 2049) rates will continue to increase substantially in the coming 30 years. And the estimated number of new cases of, and deaths from OC will increase by more than 3 times between 2019 and 2049.

CONCLUSIONS

The disease burden of OC in incidence and mortality has been increasing in China over the past 30 years and will be predicted to increase continuously in the coming three decades.

Global trajectories of liver cancer burden from 1990 to 2019 and projection to 2035

BACKGROUND

Large disparities exist in liver cancer burden trends across countries but are poorly understood. We aimed to investigate the global trajectories of liver cancer burden, explore the driving forces, and predict future trends.

METHODS

Data on the liver cancer burden in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) trajectories were defined using growth mixture models. Five major risk factors contributing to changes in the ASIR or ASMR and socioeconomic determinants were explored using the identified trajectories. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict future trends through 2035.

RESULTS

Three trajectories of liver cancer burden were identified: increasing, stable, and decreasing groups. Almost half of the American countries were classified in the decreasing group (48.6% for ASIR and ASMR), and the increasing group was the most common in the European region (ASIR, 49.1%; ASMR, 37.7%). In the decreasing group, the decrease of liver cancer due to hepatitis B contributed 63.4% and 60.4% of the total decreases in ASIR and ASMR, respectively. The increase of liver cancer due to alcohol use, hepatitis C, and hepatitis B contributed the most to the increase in the increasing group (30.8%, 31.1%, and 24.2% for ASIR; 33.7%, 30.2%, and 22.2% for ASMR, respectively). The increasing group was associated with a higher sociodemographic index, gross domestic product per capita, health expenditure per capita, and universal health coverage (all P <0.05). Significant variations in disease burden are predicted to continue through 2035, with a disproportionate burden in the decreasing group.

CONCLUSION

Global disparities were observed in liver cancer burden trajectories. Hepatitis B, alcohol use, and hepatitis C were identified as driving forces in different regions.

The rising death burden of atrial fibrillation and flutter in low-income regions and younger populations

Objective

The aim of the study was to depict the global death burden of atrial fibrillation and/or flutter (AFF) between 1990 and 2019 and predict this burden in the next decade.

Methods

We retrieved annual death data on cases and rates of AFF between 1990 and 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 and projected the trends for 2020-2029 by developing the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

Results

The global number of deaths from AFF increased from 117,038.00 in 1990 to 315,336.80 in 2019. This number is projected to reach 404,593.40 by 2029. The age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) of AFF have increased significantly in low- to middle-sociodemographic index (SDI) regions, which will surpass that in high SDI regions and reach above 4.60 per 100,000 by 2029. Globally, women have a higher ASMR than men, which is largely attributed to disproportionately higher mortality in women than men in lower SDI regions. Notably, AFF-related premature mortality continues to worsen worldwide. A pandemic of high systolic blood pressure and high body mass index (BMI) largely contributes to AFF-associated death. In particular, low- to middle-SDI regions and younger populations are increasingly affected by the rapidly growing current and future risk of high BMI.

Conclusion

The global death burden of AFF in low-income countries and younger generations have not been sufficiently controlled in the past and will continue growing in the future, which is largely attributed to metabolic risks, particularly for high BMI. There is an urgent need to implement effective measures to control AFF-related mortality.

Potential Gains in Health-Adjusted Life Expectancy by Reducing Burden of Noncommunicable Diseases in 188 Countries: A Population-Based Study

OBJECTIVES

This article quantifies the potential gains in health-adjusted life expectancy for people aged 30 to 70 years (HALE_[30-70]) by examining the reductions in disability in addition to premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases (NCDs).

METHODS

We extracted data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 for 4 major NCDs (cancers, cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes mellitus) in 188 countries from 2010 to 2019. Estimates of the potential gains in HALE_[30-70] were based on a counterfactual analysis involving 3 alternative future scenarios: (1) achieve Sustainable Development Goals target 3.4 but do not make any progress on disability reduction, (2) achieve Sustainable Development Goals target 3.4 and eliminate NCD-related disability, and (3) eliminate all NCD-related mortality and disability.

RESULTS

In all scenarios, the high-income group has the greatest potential gains in HALE_[30-70], above the global average. For all specific causes, potential gains in HALE_[30-70] decrease as income levels fall. Across these 3 scenarios, the potential gains in HALE_[30-70] globally of reducing premature mortality for 4 major NCDs are 3.13 years, 4.53 years, and 7.32 years, respectively. In scenario A, all income groups have the greatest potential gains in HALE_[30-70] from diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases. In scenarios B and C, the high-income group has the greatest potential gains in HALE_[30-70] from cancer intervention, and the other income groups have the greatest potential gains in HALE_[30-70] from cardiovascular diseases intervention.

CONCLUSION

Reducing premature death and disability from 4 major NCDs at once and attaching equal importance to each lead to a sizable improvement in HALE_[30-70].

Association of Viral Hepatitis Status and Post-hepatectomy Outcomes in the Era of Direct-Acting Antivirals

BACKGROUND

The role of viral hepatitis status in post-hepatectomy outcomes has yet to be delineated. This large, multicentred contemporary study aimed to evaluate the effect of viral hepatitis status on 30-day post-hepatectomy complications in patients treated for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

Patients from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database with known viral hepatitis status, who underwent hepatectomy for HCC between 2014 and 2018, were included. Patients were classified as HBV-only, HCV-only, HBV and HCV co-infection (HBV/HCV), or no viral hepatitis (NV). Multivariable models were used to assess outcomes of interest. The primary outcome was any 30-day post-hepatectomy complication. The secondary outcomes were major complications and post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF). Subgroup analyses were performed for cirrhotic and noncirrhotic patients.

RESULTS

A total of 3234 patients were included. The 30-day complication rate was 207/663 (31.2%) HBV, 356/1077 (33.1%) HCV, 29/81 (35.8%) HBV/HCV, and 534/1413 (37.8%) NV (p = 0.01). On adjusted analysis, viral hepatitis status was not associated with occurrence of any 30-day post-hepatectomy complications (ref: NV, HBV odds ratio (OR) 0.89 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.71-1.12]; HCV OR 0.91 [95% CI: 0.75-1.10]; HBV/HCV OR 1.17 [95% CI: 0.71-1.93]). Similar results were found in cirrhotic and noncirrhotic subgroups, and for secondary outcomes: occurrence of any major complications and PHLF.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with HCC managed with resection, viral hepatitis status is not associated with 30-day post-hepatectomy complications, major complications, or PHLF compared with NV. This suggests that clinical decisions and prognostication of 30-day outcomes in this population likely should not be made based on viral hepatitis status.

Advancements in Research on Constructing Physiological and Pathological Liver Models and Their Applications Utilizing Bioprinting Technology

In recent decades, significant progress has been made in liver tissue engineering through the use of 3D bioprinting technology. This technology offers the ability to create personalized biological structures with precise geometric design capabilities. The complex and multifaceted nature of liver diseases underscores the need for advanced technologies to accurately mimic the physiological and mechanical characteristics, as well as organ-level functions, of liver tissue in vitro. Bioprinting stands out as a superior option over traditional two-dimensional cell culture models and animal models due to its stronger biomimetic advantages. Through the use of bioprinting, it is possible to create liver tissue with a level of structural and functional complexity that more closely resembles the real organ, allowing for more accurate disease modeling and drug testing. As a result, it is a promising tool for restoring and replacing damaged tissue and organs in the field of liver tissue engineering and drug research. This article aims to present a comprehensive overview of the progress made in liver tissue engineering using bioprinting technology to provide valuable insights for researchers. The paper provides a detailed account of the history of liver tissue engineering, highlights the current 3D bioprinting methods and bioinks that are widely used, and accentuates the importance of existing in vitro liver tissue models based on 3D bioprinting and their biomedical applications. Additionally, the article explores the challenges faced by 3D bioprinting and predicts future trends in the field. The progress of 3D bioprinting technology is poised to bring new approaches to printing liver tissue in vitro, while offering powerful tools for drug development, testing, liver disease modeling, transplantation, and regeneration, which hold great academic and practical significance.

Projections of Lung Cancer Incidence by 2035 in 40 Countries Worldwide: Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND

The global burden of lung cancer (LC) is increasing. Quantitative projections of the future LC burden in different world regions could help optimize the allocation of resources and provide a benchmark for evaluating LC prevention and control interventions.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to predict the future incidence of LC in 40 countries by 2035, with an emphasis on country- and sex-specific disparities.

METHODS

Data on LC incidence from 1978 to 2012 were extracted from 126 cancer registries of 40 countries in Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volumes V-XI and used for the projection. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) per 100,000 person-years and the number of incident cases were predicted through 2035, using the NORDPRED age-period-cohort model.

RESULTS

Global ASRs of the 40 studied countries were predicted to decrease by 23% (8.2/35.8) among males, from 35.8 per 100,000 person-years in 2010 to 27.6 in 2035, and increase by 2% (0.3/16.8) among females, from 16.8 in 2010 to 17.1 in 2035. The ASRs of LC among females are projected to continue increasing dramatically in most countries by 2035, with peaks after the 2020s in most European, Eastern Asian, and Oceanian countries, whereas the ASRs among males will continue to decline in almost all countries. The ASRs among females are predicted to almost reach those among males in Ireland, Norway, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Canada, the United States, and New Zealand in 2025 and in Slovenia in 2035 and even surpass those among males in Denmark in 2020 and in Brazil and Colombia in 2025. In 2035, the highest ASRs are projected to occur among males in Belarus (49.3) and among females in Denmark (36.8). The number of new cases in 40 countries is predicted to increase by 65.32% (858,000/1,314,000), from 1.31 million in 2010 to 2.17 million in 2035. China will have the largest number of new cases.

CONCLUSIONS

LC incidence is expected to continue to increase through 2035 in most countries, making LC a major public health challenge worldwide. The ongoing transition in the epidemiology of LC highlights the need for resource redistribution and improved LC control measures to reduce future LC burden worldwide.

Hepatocellular carcinoma in non-alcoholic steatohepatitis without cirrhosis

Cirrhosis is an emerging major cause of the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), up to 50% of patients with HCC had no clinical or histological evidence of cirrhosis. It is currently challenging to propose general recommendations for screening patients with NAFLD without cirrhosis, and each patient should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis based on the profile of specific risk factors identified. For HCC screening in NAFLD, a valid precision-based screening is needed. Currently, when evaluating this population of patients, the use of non-invasive methods can guide the selection of those who should undergo a screening and surveillance program. Hence, the objective of the present study is to review the epidemiology, the pathophysiology, the histopathological aspects, the current recommendations, and novel perspectives in the surveillance of non-cirrhotic NAFLD-related HCC.

Development and Validation of a nomogram for forecasting survival of alcohol related hepatocellular carcinoma patients

BACKGROUND

With the increasing incidence and prevalence of alcoholic liver disease, alcohol-related hepatocellular carcinoma has become a serious public health problem worthy of attention in China. However, there is currently no prognostic prediction model for alcohol-related hepatocellular carcinoma.

METHODS

The retrospective analysis research of alcohol related hepatocellular carcinoma patients was conducted from January 2010 to December 2014. Independent prognostic factors of alcohol related hepatocellular carcinoma were identified by Lasso regression and multivariate COX proportional model analysis, and the nomogram model was constructed. The reliability and accuracy of the model were assessed using the concordance index(C-Index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve. Evaluate the clinical benefit and application value of the model through clinical decision curve analysis (DCA). The prognosis was assessed by the Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival curve.

RESULTS

In sum, 383 patients were included in our study. Patients were stochastically assigned to training cohort (n=271) and validation cohort (n=112) according to 7:3 ratio. The predictors included in the nomogram were splenectomy, platelet count (PLT), creatinine (CRE), Prealbumin (PA), mean erythrocyte hemoglobin concentration (MCHC), red blood cell distribution width (RDW) and TNM. Our nomogram demonstrated excellent discriminatory power (C-index) and good calibration at 1-year, 3-year and 5- year overall survival (OS). Compared to TNM and Child-Pugh model, the nomogram had better discriminative ability and higher accuracy. DCA showed high clinical benefit and application value of the model.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram model we established can precisely forcasting the prognosis of alcohol related hepatocellular carcinoma patients, which would be helpful for the early warning of alcohol related hepatocellular carcinoma and predict prognosis in patients with alcoholic hepatocellular carcinoma.

Establishment of a Prognostic Model for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Based on Bioinformatics and the Role of NR6A1 in the Progression of HCC

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Generally acceptable prognostic models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are not available. This study aimed to establish a prognostic model for HCC by identifying immune-related differentially expressed genes (IR-DEGs) and to investigate the potential role of NR6A1 in the progression of HCC.

METHODS

Bioinformatics analysis using The Cancer Genome Atlas and ImmPort databases was used to identify IR-DEGs. Lasso Cox regression and multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to establish a prognostic model of HCC. Kaplan-Meier analysis and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to evaluate the performance of the prognostic model, which was further verified in the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) database. Gene set enrichment analysis was used to explore the potential pathways of NR6A1. Cell counting kit 8, colony formation, wound healing, and Transwell migration assays using Huh7 cells, and tumor formation models in nude mice were conducted.

RESULTS

A prognostic model established based on ten identified IR-DEGs including HSPA4, FABP6, MAPT, NDRG1, APLN, IL17D, LHB, SPP1, GLP1R, and NR6A1, effectively predicted the prognosis of HCC patients, was confirmed by the ROC curves and verified in ICGC database. NR6A1 expression was significantly up-regulated in HCC patients, and NR6A1 was significantly associated with a low survival rate. Gene set enrichment analysis showed the enrichment of cell cycle, mTOR, WNT, and ERBB signaling pathways in patients with high NR6A1 expression. NR6A1 promoted cell proliferation, invasiveness, migration, and malignant tumor formation and growth in vitro and in vivo.

CONCLUSIONS

An effective prognostic model for HCC, based on a novel signature of 10 immune-related genes, was established. NR6A1 was up-regulated in HCC and was associated with a poor prognosis of HCC. NR6A1 promoted cell proliferation, migration, and growth of HCC, most likely through the cell cycle, mTOR, WNT, and ERBB signaling pathways.

The projections of global and regional rheumatic heart disease burden from 2020 to 2030

Background

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) remains the leading cause of preventable death and disability in children and young adults, killing an estimated 320,000 individuals worldwide yearly.

Materials and methods

We utilized the Bayesian age-period cohort (BAPC) model to project the change in disease burden from 2020 to 2030 using the data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. Then we described the projected epidemiological characteristics of RHD by region, sex, and age.

Results

The global age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of RHD increased from 1990 to 2019, and ASPR will increase to 559.88 per 100,000 population by 2030. The global age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of RHD will continue declining, while the projected death cases will increase. Furthermore, ASPR and cases of RHD-associated HF will continue rising, and there will be 2,922,840 heart failure (HF) cases in 2030 globally. Female subjects will still be the dominant population compared to male subjects, and the ASPR of RHD and the ASPR of RHD-associated HF in female subjects will continue to increase from 2020 to 2030. Young people will have the highest ASPR of RHD among all age groups globally, while the elderly will bear a greater death and HF burden.

Conclusion

In the following decade, the RHD burden will remain severe. There are large variations in the trend of RHD burden by region, sex, and age. Targeted and effective strategies are needed for the management of RHD, particularly in female subjects and young people in developing regions.

Comparison of primary liver cancer mortality estimates from World Health Organization, global burden disease and global cancer observatory

AIMS

This study aims to compare estimates of primary liver cancer mortality from World Health Organization (WHO), Global Burden Disease (GBD) and Global Cancer Observatory (GCO).

METHODS

Liver cancer mortality was extracted from WHO, GBD and GCO for 92 countries for the most recent year. Age-standardized rate (ASR) was computed and used for current comparisons across the three data sources. Temporal trend for 75 countries was analysed and compared between WHO and GBD from 1990 to 2019 using joinpoint regression. Average annual percentage change for the most recent 10 years was used as indicator for change.

RESULTS

The estimates of ASR were quite consistent across the three data sources, but most similar estimates were found between WHO and GCO in both region and country levels. The differences in ASR were negatively correlated with completeness of cause-of-death registration, human development index and proportion of liver cancer because of alcohol consumption. Consistent trends of ASR were found from 35 countries between WHO and GBD in the most recent 10 years. However, opposite trends were found from 10 countries with five from Southern America, four from Europe and one from Asia. Of the 18 countries for projection, opposite trends between WHO and GBD were found from seven countries.

CONCLUSION

While the ASR of primary liver cancer mortality was comparable across the three data sources, most similar estimates were found between WHO and GCO. The opposite trends found from 10 countries between WHO and GBD raised concerns of true patterns in these countries.

Comparison of time trends in the incidence of primary liver cancer between China and the United States: an age-period-cohort analysis of the Global Burden of Disease 2019

BACKGROUND

China and the United States (US) ranked first and third in terms of new liver cancer cases and deaths globally in 2020. Therefore, a comprehensive assessment of trends in the incidence of primary liver cancer with four major etiological factors between China and the US during the past 30 years with age-period-cohort (APC) analyses is warranted.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019, and period/cohort relative risks were estimated by APC modeling from 1990 to 2019.

RESULTS

In 2019, there were 211,000 new liver cancer cases in China and 28,000 in the US, accounting for 39.4% and 5.2% of global liver cancer cases, respectively. For China, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) consecutively decreased before 2005 but increased slightly since then, whereas the ASIR continuously increased in the US. Among the four etiological factors of liver cancer, the fastest reduction in incidence was observed in hepatitis B virus-related liver cancer among Chinese women, and the fastest increase was in nonalcoholic steatosis hepatitis (NASH)-related liver cancer among American men. The greatest reduction in the incidence of liver cancer was observed at the age of 53 years in Chinese men (-5.2%/year) and 33 years in Chinese women (-6.6%/year), while it peaked at 58 years old in both American men and women (4.5%/year vs . 2.8%/year). Furthermore, the period risks of alcohol- and NASH-related liver cancer among Chinese men have been elevated since 2013. Simultaneously, leveled- off period risks were observed in hepatitis C viral-related liver cancer in both American men and women.

CONCLUSIONS

Currently, both viral and lifestyle factors have been and will continue to play an important role in the time trends of liver cancer in both countries. More tailored and efficient preventive strategies should be designed to target both viral and lifestyle factors to prevent and control liver cancer.

Sirolimus vs tacrolimus: Which one is the best therapeutic option for patients undergoing liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma?

Liver transplantation (LT) withstands as the most preferred therapeutic option for patients afflicted with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and cirrhosis. To improve prognosis post-transplant, as well as to prevent the occurrence of rejection, a life-long immunosuppression strategy is implemented. The following letter to the editor highlights and provides novel evidence from recently published literature on topics discussed within the review article titled “Trends of rapamycin in survival benefits of liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma” in World J Gastrointest Surg 2021; 13: 953-966. In the recent manuscript, the authors compared immunosuppressive drugs such as the newer option first-generation mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitor, also known as sirolimus, with the most widely used first-generation calcineurin inhibitors, such as tacrolimus (TAC). TAC is commonly known as the most effective immunosuppressive drug after LT, but it has been reported to cause intolerable side effects such as nephrotoxicity, neurotoxicity, diabetes, hypertension, gastrointestinal disturbances, increased risk of infections, and malignancies. It is necessary for physicians to be aware of recent advances in tacrolimus and sirolimus therapies to compare and understand distinctly the effectiveness and tolerability of these drugs. This will assist clinicians in making the best treatment decisions and improve the clinical prognosis of LT recipients with HCC.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease-related hepatocellular carcinoma: Is there a role for immunotherapy?

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is among the most common cancers and it is a major cause of cancer-related deaths. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) affects approximately one fourth of individuals worldwide and it is becoming one of the most important causes of HCC. The pathogenic mechanisms leading to NAFLD-related HCC are complex and not completely understood. However, metabolic, fibrogenic, oncogenic, inflammatory and immunological pathways seem to be involved. First-line therapy of advanced HCC has recently undergone major changes, since the combination of atezolizumab and bevacizumab was proven to increase survival when compared to sorafenib. Other immune-oncology drugs are also demonstrating promising results in patients with advanced HCC when compared to traditional systemic therapy. However, initial studies raised concerns that the advantages of immunotherapy might depend on the underlying liver disease, which seems to be particularly important in NAFLD-related HCC, as these tumors might not benefit from it. This article will review the mechanisms of NAFLD-related hepatocarcinogenesis, with an emphasis on its immune aspects, the efficacy of traditional systemic therapy for advanced NAFLD-related HCC, and the most recent data on the role of immunotherapy for this specific group of patients, showing that the management of this condition should be individualized and that a general recommendation cannot be made at this time.

Trends in Musculoskeletal Rehabilitation Needs in China From 1990 to 2030: A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Modeling Study

Background

Disability and medical expenses caused by musculoskeletal disorders in China had a great impact on the global health and economy. Rehabilitation is essential for dealing with musculoskeletal disorders. However, China's musculoskeletal rehabilitation needs remain unknown. This study aimed to examine the secular trends for musculoskeletal rehabilitation needs in China from 1990 to 2030.

Methods

Data on musculoskeletal rehabilitation needs were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) repository. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to reflect fluctuations in the age-standardized rates. The Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to project rehabilitation needs.

Results

The number of prevalent cases and years lived with disability (YLD) counts in need of musculoskeletal rehabilitation increased greatly in China from 1990 to 2019. There will be 465.9 million Chinese people in need of rehabilitation, with the age-standardized prevalence rate increasing to 21,151.0 [2.5-97.5% predictive interval (95% PI) 14,872.6-27,429.3] per 100,000 persons in 2030. Similarly, the YLD counts will increase to 40.1 million, with the age-standardized YLD rate increasing to 1,811.2 (95% PI 1,232.5-2,390.0) per 100,000 persons in 2030.

Conclusions

Increasing trends in musculoskeletal rehabilitation needs were found from 1990 to 2019, which will be anticipated through 2030. Rehabilitation is suggested to be integrated into primary care settings.

Splenomegaly in predicting the survival of patients with advanced primary liver cancer treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) play an increasingly important role in the treatment of primary liver cancer (PLC). Some patients with PLC experience symptoms of splenomegaly. Splenomegaly may affect the efficacy of ICIs due to an imbalance of the immune microenvironment. Currently, there is a lack of evidence on the relationship between splenomegaly and prognosis in patients with PLC treated with ICIs. This study analyzed the relationship between splenomegaly and prognosis in patients with PLC treated with ICIs.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study of 161 patients with PLC treated with ICIs, splenomegaly was diagnosed using computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging and the impact of splenomegaly on patient survival was analyzed.

RESULTS

Through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, we determined that splenomegaly was associated with shortened overall survival (p = 0.002) and progression-free survival (p = 0.013) in patients with PLC treated with ICIs. Kaplan-Meier analysis further validated our results. The overall survival and progression-free survival of patients with splenomegaly were significantly shorter than those of patients without splenomegaly (p < 0.01 and p = 0.02, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

We concluded that splenomegaly was a predictor of prognosis in patients with PLC treated with ICIs. This is the first study to report this important finding.

Inflammation and Cancer: From the Development of Personalized Indicators to Novel Therapeutic Strategies

Colorectal (CRC) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are associated with chronic inflammation, which plays a role in tumor development and malignant progression. An unmet medical need in these settings is the availability of sensitive and specific noninvasive biomarkers. Their use will allow surveillance of high-risk populations, early detection, and monitoring of disease progression. Moreover, the characterization of specific fingerprints of patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) without or with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) at the early stages of liver fibrosis is necessary. Some lines of evidence show the contribution of platelets to intestinal and liver inflammation. Thus, low-dose Aspirin, an antiplatelet agent, reduces CRC and liver cancer incidence and mortality. Aspirin also produces antifibrotic effects in NAFLD. Activated platelets can trigger chronic inflammation and tissue fibrosis via the release of soluble mediators, such as thromboxane (TX) A2 and tumor growth factor (TGF)-β, and vesicles containing genetic material (including microRNA). These platelet-derived products contribute to cyclooxygenase (COX)-2 expression and prostaglandin (PG)E2 biosynthesis by tumor microenvironment cells, such as immune and endothelial cells and fibroblasts, alongside cancer cells. Enhanced COX-2-dependent PGE2 plays a crucial role in chronic inflammation and promotes tumor progression, angiogenesis, and metastasis. Antiplatelet agents can indirectly prevent the induction of COX-2 in target cells by inhibiting platelet activation. Differently, selective COX-2 inhibitors (coxibs) block the activity of COX-2 expressed in the tumor microenvironment and cancer cells. However, coxib chemopreventive effects are hampered by the interference with cardiovascular homeostasis via the coincident inhibition of vascular COX-2-dependent prostacyclin biosynthesis, resulting in enhanced risk of atherothrombosis. A strategy to improve anti-inflammatory agents' use in cancer prevention could be to develop tissue-specific drug delivery systems. Platelet ability to interact with tumor cells and transfer their molecular cargo can be employed to design platelet-mediated drug delivery systems to enhance the efficacy and reduce toxicity associated with anti-inflammatory agents in these settings. Another peculiarity of platelets is their capability to uptake proteins and transcripts from the circulation. Thus, cancer patient platelets show specific proteomic and transcriptomic expression profiles that could be used as biomarkers for early cancer detection and disease monitoring.

The Emerging Influences of Alpha-Fetoprotein in the Tumorigenesis and Progression of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the sixth most common cancer worldwide, and its mortality rate is the third-highest, after lung cancer and colorectal cancer. Currently, systematic targeted therapies for HCC mainly include multiple kinase inhibitors and immunotherapy. However, these drugs carry a black-box warning about the potential for inducing severe toxicity, and they do not significantly prolong the survival period of patients due to the highly heterogeneous characteristics of HCC etiology. In order to improve the prediction, effective treatment and prognosis of HCC, the tools and different biomarkers in clinical practices are recommended. Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is the earliest and the most widely used serum marker in the detection of HCC. Interestingly, serum AFP and cytoplasmic AFP show different, even opposite, roles in the cancer progression of HCC. This review focuses on biological characteristics, regulatory mechanisms for gene expression, emerging influences of AFP in HCC and its possible implications in HCC-targeted therapy.

Hepatocellular carcinoma in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: A growing challenge

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common cause of liver disease worldwide, and its prevalence increases continuously. As it predisposes to hepatocellular carcinoma both in the presence and in the absence of cirrhosis, it is not surprising that the incidence of NAFLD-related hepatocellular carcinoma would also rise. Some of the mechanisms involved in hepatocarcinogenesis are particular to individuals with fatty liver, and they help explain why liver cancer develops even in patients without cirrhosis. Genetic and immune-mediated mechanisms seem to play an important role in the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in this population. Currently, it is consensual that patients with NAFLD-related cirrhosis should be surveilled with ultrasonography every 6 mo (with or without alpha-fetoprotein), but it is known that they are less likely to follow this recommendation than individuals with other kinds of liver disease. Moreover, the performance of the methods of surveillance are lower in NAFLD than they are in other liver diseases. Furthermore, it is not clear which subgroups of patients without cirrhosis should undergo surveillance. Understanding the mechanisms of hepatocarcinogenesis in NAFLD could hopefully lead to the identification of biomarkers to be used in the surveillance for liver cancer in these individuals. By improving surveillance, tumors could be detected in earlier stages, amenable to curative treatments.

Immune aspects of hepatocellular carcinoma: From immune markers for early detection to immunotherapy

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most prevalent cancers and one of the main causes of cancer-related deaths worldwide. Most HCCs develop in an inflammatory microenvironment, and mounting evidence emphasizes the importance of immune aspects in hepatocarcinogenesis. In normal physiology, both innate and adaptive immune responses are responsible for eliminating malignantly transformed cells, thus preventing the development of liver cancer. However, in the setting of impaired natural killer cells and exhaustion of T cells, HCC can develop. The immunogenic features of HCC have relevant clinical implications. There is a large number of immune markers currently being studied for the early detection of liver cancer, which would be critical in order to improve surveillance programs. Moreover, novel immunotherapies have recently been proven to be effective, and the combination of atezolizumab and bevacizumab is currently the most effective treatment for advanced HCC. It is expected that in the near future different subgroups of patients will benefit from specific immunotherapy. The better we understand the immune aspects of HCC, the greater the benefit to patients through surveillance aiming for early detection of liver cancer, which allows for curative treatments, and, in cases of advanced disease, through the selection of the best possible therapy for each individual.

Current impact of viral hepatitis on liver cancer development: The challenge remains

Chronic infections due to hepatitis B and hepatitis C viruses are responsible for most cases of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide, and this association is likely to remain during the next decade. Moreover, viral hepatitis-related HCC imposes an important burden on public health in terms of disability-adjusted life years. In order to reduce such a burden, some major challenges must be faced. Universal vaccination against hepatitis B virus, especially in the neonatal period, is probably the most relevant primary preventive measure against the development of HCC. Moreover, considering the large adult population already infected with hepatitis B and C viruses, it is also imperative to identify these individuals to ensure their access to treatment. Both hepatitis B and C currently have highly effective therapies, which are able to diminish the risk of development of liver cancer. Finally, it is essential for individuals at high-risk of HCC to be included in surveillance programs, so that tumors are detected at an early stage. Patients with hepatitis B or C and advanced liver fibrosis or cirrhosis benefit from being followed in a surveillance program. As hepatitis B virus is oncogenic and capable of leading to liver cancer even in individuals with early stages of liver fibrosis, other high-risk groups of patients with hepatitis B are also candidates for surveillance. Considerable effort is required concerning these strategies in order to decrease the incidence and the mortality of viral hepatitis-related HCC.

The Clinical Role of Serum Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 3 in Hepatitis C Virus-Infected Patients with Early Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Simple Summary

The identification of diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers for the management of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma is an unmet need. Here we investigate the potential clinical utility of the measurement of serum epidermal growth factor receptor 3 (i.e., ERBB3) in hepatitis C virus-infected patients with early hepatocellular carcinoma. Median values of serum ERBB3 were similar between patients with cirrhosis and those with early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC); therefore, the measurement of the biomarker in the setting of HCC surveillance appeared unsuitable. Conversely, in patients with early HCC, serum ERBB3 values were significantly associated with overall survival, suggesting that the biomarker may be useful to tailor appropriate treatment strategies in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients with early hepatocellular carcinoma.

Abstract

Epidermal growth factor receptor 3 (ERBB3) is a surface tyrosine kinase receptor belonging to the EGFR/ERBB family, involved in tumor development and progression. We evaluated the diagnostic and prognostic value of serum ERBB3 measurement in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients with early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). A total of 164 HCV-infected patients (82 with cirrhosis and 82 with early HCC) were included in the study. HCC was classified according to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system. Among patients with HCC, 23 (28%) had a diagnosis of very early tumor (BCLC = 0), while 59 (62%) had a diagnosis of early HCC (BCLC = A). Median overall survival (OS) in patients with HCC was 79.2 (95% CI 51.6–124.8) months. While ERBB3 serum values were similar between patients with cirrhosis and those with HCC (p = 0.993), in the latter, serum ERBB3 ≥ 2860 RU resulted significantly and independently associated with OS (Hazard Ratio = 2.24, 95% CI 1.16–4.35, p = 0.017). Consistently, the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates in patients with serum ERBB3 ≥ 2860 RU were 90% (36/40), 53% (19/36), and 28% (8/29) in comparison to patients with serum ERBB3 < 2860 RU, which were 98% (40/41), 80% (32/40), and 74% (26/35) (Log-rank test; p = 0.014). In conclusion, serum ERBB3 values resulted an independent prognostic factor of patients with early HCC and might be useful to tailor more personalized treatment strategies.

Burden of Thyroid Cancer From 1990 to 2019 and Projections of Incidence and Mortality Until 2039 in China: Findings From Global Burden of Disease Study

Projecting the burden of thyroid cancer (TC) over time provides essential information to effectively plan measures for its management and prevention. This research obtained data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study from between 1990 and 2019 to model how TC will affect China until 2039 by conducting the Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis. The number of new TC cases in China was 10,030 in 1990, 39,080 in 2019, and is projected to be 47,820 in 2039. This corresponds to 3,320, 7,240, and 4,160 deaths, respectively. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) cases increased from 103,490 in 1990 to 187,320 in 2019. The age-standardized rate (ASR) of incidence increased from 1.01 to 2.05 during 1990-2019 and was projected to increase to 3.37 per 100,000 person-years until 2039. The ASR of mortality (ASMR) remained stable during the study period and was projected to have a mild decline from 0.39 to 0.29/100,000 during 2020-2039. Although the ASMR in male patients has maintained increasing at a rate of 2.2% per year over the past 30 years, it is expected to decline at a rate of 1.07% per year in 2019-2039. The most significant increase in crude incidence occurred in people aged 45-65 from 1990 to 2019, however, this will shift into young people aged 10-24 from 2020 to 2039. In addition, the proportion of deaths and DALYs caused by obesity increased from 1990 to 2019 and affected men more than women. In conclusion, a substantial increase in counts of incidence of TC in China is projected over the next two decades, combined with the slightly declining mortality, indicating that rational health policies are needed in the future to cope with the increasing number of TC patients, especially among males and adolescents.