Is infant weight associated with childhood blood pressure? Analysis of the Promotion of Breastfeeding Intervention Trial (PROBIT) cohort

Associations of childhood BMI traits with blood pressure and glycated haemoglobin in 6-9-year-old Samoan children

INTRODUCTION

Prevalence and risk factors for elevated glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and blood pressure (BP) are poorly understood among Pacific children. We examined associations of HbA1c and BP in 6-9 year-olds with body mass index (BMI) at ages 2, 5, and BMI velocity between 2-9 years in Samoa.

METHODS

HbA1c (capillary blood) and BP were measured in n = 410 Samoan children who were part of an ongoing cohort study. Multilevel models predicted BMI trajectory characteristics. Generalized linear regressions assessed associations of childhood characteristics and BMI trajectories with HbA1c and BP treated as both continuous and categorical outcomes. Primary caregiver-reported childhood characteristics were used as covariates.

RESULTS

Overall, 12.90% (n = 53) of children had high HbA1c (≥5.7%) and 33.17% (n = 136) had elevated BP. BMI at 5-years and BMI velocity were positively associated with high HbA1c prevalence in males. A 1 kg/m2 per year higher velocity was associated with a 1.71 (95% CI: 1.07, 2.75) times higher prevalence of high HbA1c. In females, higher BMI at 5-years and greater BMI velocity were associated with higher BP at 6-9 years (95% CI: 1.12, 1.40, and 1.42, 2.74, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Monitoring childhood BMI trajectories may inform cardiometabolic disease screening and prevention efforts in this at-risk population.

Birth weight influences differently on systolic and diastolic blood pressure in children and adolescents aged 8-15

Aim

Globally, hypertension is one of the main threats to public health and a significant risk factor predisposing individuals to various cardiovascular conditions. Hypertension in the young is particularly complex and challenging. Accumulating evidence has implicated that low birth weight is vital for elevated blood pressure, and birth weight was negatively correlated with blood pressure. However, fewer studies with conflicting results have addressed the associations between birth weight and blood pressure in children and adolescents, and there is no relevant research conducted in the NHANES population. The principal objective of this project was to investigate the relationship between birth weight and blood pressure in children and adolescents in NHANES.

Methods

A total of 7600 subjects aged 8 to15 were enrolled in the present study from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2007–2018. Outcome variables were systolic blood pressure(SBP) and diastolic blood pressure(DBP). Birth weight was regarded as an independent variable. EmpowerStats software and R (version 3.4.3) were performed to examine the association between birth weight and SBP or DBP.

Results

Birth weight was negatively correlated with SBP in the fully-adjusted model(β = -0.02, 95%CI: -0.04 to -0.04, p = 0.0013), especially in non-Hispanic White (β = -0.03, 95%CI: -0.06 to -0.00,p = 0.0446), aged between 13 to 15(β = -0.03, 95%CI: -0.04 to -0.01, p = 0.0027), and male individuals(β = -0.03, 95%CI: -0.05 to -0.01, p = 0.0027). However, there was no unidirectional association between birth weight and DBP in the fully adjusted model(β = -0.01, 95%CI: -0.03 to 0.02, p = 0.5668) and in sub-analysis. An inverted U-shaped and J-shaped relationship was uncovered between birth weight and DBP in those aged 13 or above and Mexican Americans, respectively. The inflection point calculated by a recursive algorithm of birth weight in these groups was all 105 oz.

Conclusions

The current study identified that birth weight was negatively related to SBP but not significantly related to DBP in children and adolescents aged 8 to 15, highlighting different potential mechanisms behind high SBP and high DBP in the young. However, an inverted U-shaped and J-shaped relationship between birth weight and DBP was observed, suggesting that targeted intervention measures should be taken for different groups of people rather than generalizations.

Early childhood growth trajectory and later cognitive ability: evidence from a large prospective birth cohort of healthy term-born children

BACKGROUND

Most studies of associations between child growth and cognitive ability were based on size at one or two ages and a single measure of cognition. We aimed to characterize different aspects of early growth and their associations with cognitive outcomes in childhood through adolescence.

METHODS

In a sample of 12 368 Belarusian children born at term, we examined associations of length/height and weight trajectories over the first 6.5 years of life with cognitive ability at 6.5 and 16 years and its change over time. We estimated growth trajectories using two random-effects models-the SuperImposition by Translation and Rotation to model overall patterns of growth and the Jenss-Bayley to distinguish growth in infancy from post infancy. Cognitive ability was measured using the Wechsler Abbreviated Scales of Intelligence at 6.5 years and the computerized NeuroTrax test at 16 years.

RESULTS

Higher length/height between birth and 6.5 years was associated with higher cognitive scores at 6.5 and 16 years {2.7 points [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.1, 3.2] and 2.5 points [95% CI: 1.9, 3.0], respectively, per standard deviation [SD] increase}. A 1-SD delay in the childhood height-growth spurt was negatively associated with cognitive scores [-2.4 (95% CI: -3.0, -1.8) at age 6.5; -2.2 (95% CI: -2.7, -1.6) at 16 years]. Birth size and post-infancy growth velocity were positively associated with cognitive scores at both ages. Height trajectories were not associated with the change in cognitive score. Similar results were observed for weight trajectories.

CONCLUSIONS

Among term infants, the overall size, timing of the childhood growth spurt, size at birth and post-infancy growth velocity were all associated with cognitive ability at early-school age and adolescence.

Prepubertal Dietary and Plasma Phospholipid Fatty Acids Related to Puberty Timing: Longitudinal Cohort and Mendelian Randomization Analyses

Dietary intakes of polyunsaturated, monounsaturated and saturated fatty acids (FAs) have been inconsistently associated with puberty timing. We examined longitudinal associations of prepubertal dietary and plasma phospholipid FAs with several puberty timing traits in boys and girls. In the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, prepubertal fat intakes at 3-7.5 years and plasma phospholipid FAs at 7.5 years were measured. Timings of Tanner stage 2 genital or breast development and voice breaking or menarche from repeated reports at 8-17 years, and age at peak height velocity (PHV) from repeated height measurements at 5-20 years were estimated. In linear regression models with adjustment for maternal and infant characteristics, dietary substitution of polyunsaturated FAs for saturated FAs, and higher concentrations of dihomo-γ-linolenic acid (20:3n6) and palmitoleic acid (16:1n7) were associated with earlier timing of puberty traits in girls (n = 3872) but not boys (n = 3654). In Mendelian Randomization models, higher genetically predicted circulating dihomo-γ-linolenic acid was associated with earlier menarche in girls. Based on repeated dietary intake data, objectively measured FAs and genetic causal inference, these findings suggest that dietary and endogenous metabolic pathways that increase plasma dihomo-γ-linolenic acid, an intermediate metabolite of n-6 polyunsaturated FAs, may promote earlier puberty timing in girls.

Early Determinants of Childhood Blood Pressure at the Age of 6 Years: The GECKO Drenthe and ABCD Study Birth Cohorts

Background

There is still uncertainty about the nature and relative impact of early determinants on childhood blood pressure. This study explored determinants of blood pressure at the age of 6 years in 2 Dutch birth cohorts.

Methods and Results

Results of hierarchical multiple linear regression analyses in GECKO (Groningen Expert Center for Kids With Obesity) Drenthe study (n=1613) were replicated in ABCD (Amsterdam Born Children and Their Development) study (n=2052). All analyses were adjusted for child's age, sex, height, and body mass index (BMI), and maternal education and subsequently performed in the combined sample. No associations were found between maternal smoking during pregnancy and childhood blood pressure. In the total sample, maternal prepregnancy BMI was positively associated with systolic blood pressure (SBP) (β [95% CI], 0.09 [0.02–0.16] mm Hg) and diastolic blood pressure (β [95% CI], 0.11 [0.04–0.17] mm Hg). Children of women with hypertension had higher SBP (β [95% CI], 0.98 [0.17–1.79] mm Hg). Birth weight standardized for gestational age was inversely associated with SBP (β [95% CI], −6.93 [−9.25 to −4.61] mm Hg) and diastolic blood pressure (β [95% CI], −3.65 [−5.70 to −1.61] mm Hg). Longer gestational age was associated with lower SBP (β [95% CI] per week, −0.25 [−0.42 to −0.08] mm Hg). Breastfeeding for 1 to 3 months was associated with lower SBP (β [95% CI], −0.96 [−1.82 to −0.09] mm Hg) compared with no or <1 month of breastfeeding. Early BMI gain from the age of 2 to 6 years was positively associated with SBP (β [95% CI], 0.41 [0.08–0.74] mm Hg) and diastolic blood pressure (β [95% CI], 0.37 [0.07–0.66] mm Hg), but no effect modification by birth weight was found.

Conclusions

Higher maternal prepregnancy BMI, maternal hypertension, a relatively lower birth weight for gestational age, shorter gestational age, limited duration of breastfeeding, and more rapid early BMI gain contribute to higher childhood blood pressure at the age of 6 years.

Associations of growth from birth to puberty with blood pressure and lipid profile at ~17.5 years: evidence from Hong Kong's "Children of 1997" birth cohort

The role of early growth in later health is controversial. We examined the associations of growth at different phases from birth to puberty with blood pressure and lipid profile at ~17.5 years. In the population-representative "Children of 1997" birth cohort, growth was measured as (i) weight-for-age z score (WAZ) at birth and WAZ gains from 0 to 2 and 2 to 8 years and (ii) body-mass-index-for-age z score (BAZ) and length/height-for-age z score (LAZ) at 3 months and BAZ and LAZ gains from 3 months to 3 years, 3 to 8 years and 8 to 14 years, based on the World Health Organization growth standards/references. Adjusted partial least squares regression was used to assess simultaneously the associations of growth with height-, age- and sex-specific systolic (SBPZ) and diastolic blood pressure z scores (DBPZ), low- (LDL) and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and triglycerides (TG) at ~17.5 years. Among 3410 children, higher WAZ, BAZ and LAZ gains from initial size to 8 years were associated with higher SBPZ. Higher gains in WAZ and BAZ from 2 to 8 years were consistently associated with higher DBPZ, LDL and TG and lower HDL. Lower LAZ at 3 months and higher LAZ gain from 3 months to 3 years were associated with lower HDL and higher TG. Greater growth in weight, body mass index and length/height had negative associations with blood pressure and lipid profile at ~17.5 years, but the differences by growth measure, phase and outcome suggest a complex underlying process.

The Get-Up! study: adiposity and blood pressure in Australian toddlers

BACKGROUND

Because the elevated blood pressure (BP) in childhood is strongly associated with overweight and is a risk factor for later cardiovascular disease, a need to comprehend the early development of BP and its association with overweight is needed. We assessed differences of BP by weight status in Australian toddlers.

METHODS

From the Get-Up! Study in Australia, this sample included 265 toddlers (136 boys), aged 19.6 ± 4.2 months. BP was measured with a digital vital signs monitor. Participants were categorized as nonoverweight and overweight according to the World Health Organization definition for body mass index (BMI). Physical activity was captured with activPAL accelerometers, during childcare hours. To test differences in BP between nonoverweight and overweight children, we performed an analysis of covariance adjusting for sex, age, physical activity, and socioeconomic status.

RESULTS

Children with overweight showed higher z systolic BP values (P = .042 for BMI and P = .023 for waist circumference) when compared to nonoverweight children. However, no differences were found for z diastolic BP levels, between overweight and nonoverweight children. After adjustments for potential confounders (socioeconomic status, physical activity, sex, and age), there were no significant differences in BP variables between BMI and waist circumference groups.

CONCLUSIONS

No associations between adiposity and BP levels were found in this sample. The unadjusted results, however, showed that children with higher levels of adiposity (BMI and waist circumference) exhibited higher levels of BP. Additional research is needed to determine which environmental and genetic factors might contribute to pediatric hypertension, particularly among toddlers.

Growth During Infancy and Early Childhood and Its Association With Metabolic Risk Biomarkers at 11.5 Years of Age

The evidence that fetal life and early infancy are "critical" or "sensitive" ages for later development of cardiometabolic disease is based on flawed methods for comparing different age periods. Moreover, most previous studies have limited their focus to weight gain, rather than growth in length/height or body mass index (weight (kg)/height (m)2). We undertook a secondary analysis of data from the Promotion of Breastfeeding Intervention Trial (1996-2010), a birth cohort study nested within a large cluster-randomized trial in the Republic of Belarus, that had repeated measurements of weight and length/height taken from birth to 11.5 years of age. We used mixed-effects linear models to analyze associations of changes in standardized weight, length/height, and body mass index during 5 age periods (conception to birth, birth to age 3 months, ages 3-12 months, ages 12 months-6.5 years, and ages 6.5-11.5 years) with fasting glucose, insulin, insulin resistance, β-cell function, and adiponectin at age 11.5 years. We observed strong associations between the metabolic markers and all 3 growth measures, with the largest magnitudes being observed during the latest age period (ages 6.5-11.5 years) and negligible associations during gestation and the first year of life. Later age periods appear more "sensitive" than earlier periods to the adverse metabolic association with rapid growth in childhood.

Analysis of 'sensitive' periods of fetal and child growth

BACKGROUND

Birth weight and weight gain in infancy and early childhood are commonly studied as risk factors for later cardiometabolic diseases. In this study, we explore methods for quantifying weight gain during different age periods and for comparing the magnitude of the associations with later blood pressure.

METHODS

Based on data from a birth cohort study nested within a large cluster-randomized trial with repeated measures of weight from birth to 16 years of age, we compared the results of four analytic approaches to assess sensitive periods of growth in relation to blood pressure at age 16 years.

RESULTS

Approaches based on z-scores of weight or weight gain velocity (both standardized for age and sex) or on regression-based conditional weight standardized residuals yielded more coherent results than an approach based on absolute weight gain velocity. Weight gain standardized by sex and age was positively associated with blood pressure at 16 years at all postnatal age periods, but the magnitude of association was larger during adolescence (11.5-16 years) than during earlier intervals (0-3 months, 3-12 months, 1-6.5 years or 6.5-11.5 years).

CONCLUSIONS

Standardization of weight and weight gain by age and sex, or regression-based standardized residuals based on conditional weight, reflects relative gain and thus accounts for the rapid weight gains normally observed in early infancy and puberty. Adolescence appears to be a more sensitive period for relative weight gain effects on later blood pressure than earlier periods, even those of similar duration.

Association of BMI with Linear Growth and Pubertal Development

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship of BMI with subsequent statural growth among children born in the era of the obesity epidemic.

METHODS

Among 18,271 children from Belarus (n = 16,781, born 1996 to 1997) and the United States (n = 1,490, born 1999 to 2002), multivariable linear and ordinal logistic regression was used to analyze associations of BMI z score from infancy to adolescence with subsequent standardized length and height velocity, standing height and its components (trunk and leg lengths), and pubertal timing.

RESULTS

The prevalence of early adolescent obesity was 6.2% in Belarus and 12.8% in the United States. In both Belarusian and US children, higher BMI z scores in infancy and childhood were associated with faster length and height velocity in early life, while higher BMI z scores during middle childhood were associated with slower length and height velocity during adolescence. Associations with greater standing height and trunk length and earlier pubertal development in adolescence were stronger for BMI z scores at middle childhood than BMI z scores at birth or infancy.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings in both Belarus and the United States support the role of higher BMI in accelerating linear growth in early life (taller stature and longer trunk length) but earlier pubertal development and slower linear growth during adolescence.

Higher Weight and Weight Gain after 4 Years of Age Rather than Weight at Birth Are Associated with Adiposity, Markers of Glucose Metabolism, and Blood Pressure in 5-Year-Old Ethiopian Children

BACKGROUND

Fetal and early life growth is associated with adult risk of obesity and cardiometabolic disease. However, little is known about the relative importance of birth weight and successive periods of weight gain on markers of cardiometabolic risk in childhood in low-income populations.

OBJECTIVES

The objective was to study associations of birth weight and weight gain velocities in selected age intervals from birth to 60 mo with height, fat-free mass (FFM), and markers of adiposity and cardiometabolic risk at 60 mo.

METHODS

In a prospective cohort study of 375 Ethiopian children aged 60 mo, we estimated individual weight gain velocities in the periods between birth and 3, 6, 24, 48, and 60 mo using linear-spline mixed-effects modeling. Subsequently, we analyzed associations of birth weight, weight gain velocities, and current weight with height, FFM, and markers of adiposity and cardiometabolic risk.

RESULTS

Weight gain from 48 to 60 mo and weight at 60 mo rather than birth weight were the strongest correlates of insulin, C-peptide, HOMA-IR, blood pressure, height, FFM, waist circumference, and fat mass at 60 mo. For instance, 1 SD higher (1 SD = 50 g/mo) weight accretion from 48 to 60 mo was associated with a higher insulin of 23.3% (95% CI: 9.6%, 38.8%), C-peptide of 11.4% (2.7%, 20.8%), systolic blood pressure of 1.4 mm Hg (0.6, 2.3 mm Hg), fat mass of 0.72 kg (0.59, 0.85 kg), and FFM of 0.70 kg (0.56, 0.85 kg). Weight gain from 0 to 3 mo was positively associated with LDL cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, height, and the body composition indices, and weight gain from 24 to 48 mo was inversely associated with blood glucose.

CONCLUSIONS

In 60-mo-old Ethiopian urban children, weight gain and weight after 48 mo rather than weight at birth may represent a sensitive period for variations in markers of adiposity and glucose metabolism. The birth cohort is registered at https://www.isrctn.com/ as ISRCTN46718296.

Arterial Structural and Functional Characteristics at End of Early Childhood and Beginning of Adulthood: Impact of Body Size Gain during Early, Intermediate, Late and Global Growth

An association between nutritional characteristics in theearlylife stages and the state of the cardiovascular (CV) system in early childhood itself and/or at the beginning of adulthood has been postulated. It is still controversial whether changes in weight, height and/or body mass index (BMI) during childhood or adolescence are independently associated with hemodynamics and/or arterial properties in early childhood and adulthood. Aims: First, to evaluate and compare the strength of association between CVproperties (at 6 and 18 years (y)) and (a) anthropometric data at specific growth stages (e.g., birth, 6 y, 18 y) and (b) anthropometric changes during early (0–2 y), intermediate (0–6 y), late (6–18 y) and global (0–18 y) growth. Second, to determine whether the associations between CVproperties and growth-related body changes depend on size at birth and/or at the time of CVstudy. Third, to analyze the capacity of growth-related body size changes to explain hemodynamic and arterial properties in early childhood and adulthood before and after adjusting for exposure to CV risk factors. Anthropometric, hemodynamic (central, peripheral) and arterial parameters (structural, functional; elastic, transitional and muscular arteries) were assessed in two cohorts (children, n = 682; adolescents, n = 340). Data wereobtained and analyzed following identical protocols. Results: Body-size changes in infancy (0–2 y) and childhood (0–6 y) showed similar strength of association with CV properties at 6 y. Conversely, 0–6, 6-18 or 0–18 ychanges were not associated with CV parameters at 18 y. The association between CV properties at 6 yand body-size changes during growth showed: equal or greater strength than the observed for body-size at birth, and lower strength compared to that obtained for current z-BMI. Conversely, only z-BMI at 18 y showed associations with CV z-scores at 18 y. Body size at birth showed almost no association with CVproperties at 6 or 18 y. Conclusion: current z-BMI showed the greatest capacity to explain variations in CV properties at 6 and 18 y. Variations in some CV parameters were mainly explained by growth-related anthropometric changes and/or by their interaction with current z-BMI. Body size at birth showed almost no association with arterial properties at 6 or 18 y.

Association between birth weight and childhood cardiovascular disease risk factors in West Virginia

The reported associations between birth weight and childhood cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors have been inconsistent. In this study, we investigated the relationship between birth weight and CVD risk factors at 11 years of age. This study used longitudinally linked data from three cross-sectional datasets (N = 22,136) in West Virginia; analysis was restricted to children born full-term (N = 19,583). The outcome variables included resting blood pressure [systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP)] and lipid profile [total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, non-HDL, and triglycerides (TG)]. Multiple regression analyses were performed, adjusting for child's body mass index (BMI), sociodemographics, and lifestyle characteristics. Unadjusted analyses showed a statistically significant association between birth weight and SBP, DBP, HDL, and TG. When adjusted for the child's BMI, the association between birth weight and HDL [b = 0.14 (95% CI: 0.11, 0.18) mg/dl per 1000 g increase] and between birth weight and TG [b = -0.007 (-0.008, -0.005) mg/dl per 1000 g increase] remained statistically significant. In the fully adjusted model, low birth weight was associated with higher LDL, non-HDL, and TGs, and lower HDL levels. The child's current BMI at 11 years of age partially (for HDL, non-HDL, and TG) and fully mediated (for SBP and DBP) the relationship between birth weight and select CVD risk factors. While effects were modest, these risk factors may persist and amplify with age, leading to potentially unfavorable consequences in later adulthood.

Being underweight in adolescence is independently associated with adult-onset diabetes among women: The Japan Nurses' Health Study

AIMS/INTRODUCTION

To examine the association between adult-onset diabetes and life-course bodyweight changes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In a cross-sectional study, 17,398 Japanese female nurses aged ≥30 years completed a self-administered questionnaire in 2001-2007. Bodyweight indices were calculated for three life stages: birthweight (adjusted for gestational age), body mass index (BMI) at age 18 years and current BMI. Odds ratios for being diagnosed with adult-onset diabetes were calculated according to the combined bodyweight categories of two life stages: at birth and age 18 years; and at age 18 years and the survey (current). Path analysis was carried out to decompose the effect of each bodyweight index into direct and mediating effects.

RESULTS

After adjustment for age at survey and parental diabetes history, "low" birthweight (<25th percentile), when combined with either "low" or "high" BMI (≥75th percentile) at age 18 years, had significant odds ratios (2.32, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.22-4.44; 3.69, 95% CI 2.12-6.42, respectively) compared with the group of "middle" category (25th-74th percentile) at both life stages. The combination of "low" BMI at age 18 years and "high" current BMIs showed the highest odds ratio (7.97, 95% CI 3.97-16.00). Among women without parental diabetes history, "low" BMI at age 18 years showed a significantly high odds ratio (2.25, 95% CI 1.01-4.99), even when combined with the "middle" category of current BMI. Path analysis showed that both birthweight and BMI at age 18 years had a negative direct effect on adult-onset diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Underweight at adolescence, as well as overweight, is a potential risk factor for adult-onset diabetes among Japanese women.

Association of accelerated body mass index gain with repeated measures of blood pressure in early childhood

Background/objectives

We examined the association for rates of age- and sex-standardized body mass index (zBMI) gain between 0–3, 3–18, and 18–36 months with BP in children at 36–72 months of age.

Methods

We collected repeated measures of zBMI and BP in 2502 children. zBMI was calculated using the World Health Organization standards. Each child’s zBMI at birth and rates of zBMI gain in each period from birth to 36 months were estimated using linear spline multilevel models. Generalized estimating equations were used to determine whether zBMI at birth and zBMI gain between 0–3, 3–18, and 18–36 months were each associated with repeated measures of BP at 36–72 months of age. We sequentially conditioned on zBMI at birth and zBMI gain in each period prior to each period tested, as covariates, and adjusted for important socio-demographic, familial, and study design covariates. We examined whether these associations were modified by birthweight or maternal obesity, by including interaction terms.

Results

After adjusting for all covariates and conditioning on prior zBMI gains, a 1 standard deviation unit faster rate of zBMI gain during 0–3 months, (β = 0.59 mmHg; 95% CI 0.31, 0.86) and 3–18 months (β = 0.74 mmHg; 95% CI 0.46, 1.03) were each associated with higher systolic BP at 36–72 months. No significant associations were observed, however, for zBMI at birth or zBMI gain in the 18–36 month growth period. zBMI gains from 0–3 and 3–18 months were also associated with diastolic BP. Birthweight significantly modified the relationship during the 3–18 month period (p = 0.02), with the low birthweight group exhibiting the strongest association for faster rate of zBMI gain with higher systolic BP (β = 1.31 mmHg; 95% CI 0.14, 2.48).

Conclusions

Given that long-term exposure to small elevations in BP are associated with subclinical cardiovascular disease, promoting interventions targeting healthy growth in infancy may be important.

Patterns of body mass index milestones in early life and cardiometabolic risk in early adolescence

BACKGROUND

Few studies have examined the independent and combined relationships of body mass index (BMI) peak and rebound with adiposity, insulin resistance and metabolic risk later in life. We used data from Project Viva, a well-characterized birth cohort from Boston with repeated measures of BMI, to help fill this gap.

METHODS

Among 1681 children with BMI data from birth to mid childhood, we fitted individual BMI trajectories using mixed-effects models with natural cubic splines and estimated age, and magnitude of BMI, at peak (in infancy) and rebound (in early childhood). We obtained cardiometabolic measures of the children in early adolescence (median 12.9 years) and analysed their associations with the BMI parameters.

RESULTS

After adjusting for potential confounders, age and magnitude at infancy BMI peak were associated with greater adolescent adiposity, and earlier adiposity rebound was strongly associated with greater adiposity, insulin resistance and metabolic risk score independently of BMI peak. Children with a normal timing of BMI peak plus early rebound had an adverse cardiometabolic profile, characterized by higher fat mass index {β 2.2 kg/m2 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.6, 2.9]}, trunk fat mass index [1.1 kg/m2 (0.8, 1.5)], insulin resistance [0.2 units (0.04, 0.4)] and metabolic risk score [0.4 units (0.2, 0.5)] compared with children with a normal BMI peak and a normal rebound pattern. Children without a BMI peak (no decline in BMI after the rise in infancy) also had adverse adolescent metabolic profiles.

CONCLUSIONS

Early age at BMI rebound is a strong risk factor for cardiometabolic risk, independent of BMI peak. Children with a normal peak-early rebound pattern, or without any BMI decline following infancy, are at greatest risk of adverse cardiometabolic profile in adolescence. Routine monitoring of BMI may help to identify children who are at greatest risk of developing an adverse cardiometabolic profile in later life and who may be targeted for preventive interventions.

Excess early postnatal weight gain and blood pressure in healthy young children

Blood pressure (BP) tracks from childhood to adulthood, and early BP trajectories predict cardiovascular disease risk later in life. Excess postnatal weight gain is associated with vascular changes early in life. However, to what extent it is associated with children's BP is largely unknown. In 853 healthy 5-year-old children of the Wheezing-Illnesses-Study-Leidsche-Rijn (WHISTLER) birth cohort, systolic (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) were measured, and z scores of individual weight gain rates adjusted for length gain rates were calculated using at least two weight and length measurements from birth until 3 months of age. Linear regression analyses were conducted to investigate the association between weight gain rates adjusted for length gain rates and BP adjusted for sex and ethnicity. Each standard deviation increase in weight gain rates adjusted for length gain rates was associated with 0.9 mmHg (95% CI 0.3, 1.5) higher sitting SBP after adjustment for confounders. Particularly in children in the lowest birth size decile, high excess weight gain was associated with higher sitting SBP values compared to children with low weight gain rates adjusted for length gain rates. BMI and visceral adipose tissue partly explained the association between excess weight gain and sitting SBP (β 0.5 mmHg, 95% CI -0.3, 1.3). Weight gain rates adjusted for length gain rates were not associated with supine SBP or DBP. Children with excess weight gain, properly adjusted for length gain, in the first three months of life, particularly those with a small birth size, showed higher sitting systolic BP at the age of 5 years.

Relative Weight Gain Through Age 4 Years Is Associated with Increased Adiposity, and Higher Blood Pressure and Insulinemia at 4-5 Years of Age in Mexican Children

Background

Rapid early weight gain has been associated with increased risk of obesity and cardiometabolic alterations, but evidence in low and middle-income countries is inconclusive.

Objective

We evaluated the relation between relative weight gain from 1 to 48 mo with adiposity and cardiometabolic risk factors at 4-5 y of age, and determined if adiposity is a mediator for cardiometabolic alterations.

Methods

We studied 428 Mexican children with anthropometric and blood pressure (BP) information from birth to 5 y of age from POSGRAD (Prenatal Omega-3 fatty acid Supplementation and child GRowth And Development), of whom 334 provided measures of adiposity and cardiometabolic risk markers at 4 y. We estimated relative weight gain by means of conditional weight-for-height z scores for the age intervals 1-6, 6-12, 12-24, and 24-48 mo. Associations between relative weight gain and adiposity and cardiometabolic risk markers (lipid profile, triglycerides, insulin, glucose, and BP) were analyzed by multivariate multiple linear models and path analysis.

Results

A 1-unit increase in conditional weight-for-height z score within each age interval was positively associated with adiposity at 5 y, with coefficients of 0.43-0.89 for body mass index (BMI) z score, 1.08-3.65 mm for sum of skinfolds, and 1.21-3.87 cm for abdominal circumference (all P < 0.01). Positive associations were documented from ages 6 to 48 mo with systolic BP (coefficient ranges: 1.19-1.78 mm Hg; all P < 0.05) and from ages 12 to 48 mo with diastolic BP (1.28-0.94 mm Hg; P < 0.05) at 5 y. Conditional weight-for-height z scores at 12-24 and 24-48 mo of age were more strongly associated with adiposity and BP relative to younger ages. A unit increase in conditional weight-for-height z scores from 12 to 24 mo was associated with 14% higher insulin levels (P < 0.05) at 4 y. Path analyses documented that the associations of conditional weight gain with BP were mediated by BMI and sum of skinfolds.

Conclusion

Relative weight gain at most periods during the first 4 y of life was associated with greater adiposity and higher systolic and diastolic BP at 5 y. These associations with BP were mediated by adiposity. Relative weight gain from 12 to 24 mo was associated with increased serum insulin concentrations at 4 y, but there were no associations with lipid profiles or glucose concentration.

Novel metrics for growth model selection

BACKGROUND

Literature surrounding the statistical modeling of childhood growth data involves a diverse set of potential models from which investigators can choose. However, the lack of a comprehensive framework for comparing non-nested models leads to difficulty in assessing model performance. This paper proposes a framework for comparing non-nested growth models using novel metrics of predictive accuracy based on modifications of the mean squared error criteria.

METHODS

Three metrics were created: normalized, age-adjusted, and weighted mean squared error (MSE). Predictive performance metrics were used to compare linear mixed effects models and functional regression models. Prediction accuracy was assessed by partitioning the observed data into training and test datasets. This partitioning was constructed to assess prediction accuracy for backward (i.e., early growth), forward (i.e., late growth), in-range, and on new-individuals. Analyses were done with height measurements from 215 Peruvian children with data spanning from near birth to 2 years of age.

RESULTS

Functional models outperformed linear mixed effects models in all scenarios tested. In particular, prediction errors for functional concurrent regression (FCR) and functional principal component analysis models were approximately 6% lower when compared to linear mixed effects models. When we weighted subject-specific MSEs according to subject-specific growth rates during infancy, we found that FCR was the best performer in all scenarios.

CONCLUSION

With this novel approach, we can quantitatively compare non-nested models and weight subgroups of interest to select the best performing growth model for a particular application or problem at hand.

Birth Weight, Postnatal Weight Gain, and Childhood Adiposity in Relation to Lipid Profile and Blood Pressure During Early Adolescence

Background

Different pathways likely underlie the association between early weight gain and cardiovascular disease risk. We examined whether birth weight for length relationship and weight gain up to 2 years of age are associated with lipid profiles and blood pressure (BP) in early adolescence and determined whether childhood adiposity mediates these associations.

Methods and Results

Data from QUALITY (Quebec Adipose and Lifestyle Investigation in Youth), a cohort of white children with parental history of obesity, were analyzed (n=395). Sex‐specific weight for length z scores from birth to 2 years were computed. Rate of postnatal weight gain was estimated using individual slopes of weight for length z‐score measurements. Percentage of body fat was measured at 8 to 10 years. Fasting lipids and BP were measured at 10 to 12 years. Using path analysis, we found indirect effects of postnatal weight gain, through childhood adiposity, on all outcomes: Rate of postnatal weight for length gain was positively associated with childhood adiposity, which in turn was associated with unfavorable lipid and BP levels in early adolescence. In contrast, small beneficial direct effects on diastolic BP z scores, independent of weight at other time points, were found for birth weight for length (β=−0.05, 95% CI, −0.09 to −0.002) and for postnatal weight gain (β=−0.02, 95% CI, −0.03 to −0.002).

Conclusions

Among children with at least 1 obese parent, faster postnatal weight gain leads to cardiovascular risk factors in early adolescence through its effect on childhood adiposity. Although heavier newborns may have lower BP in early adolescence, this protective direct effect could be offset by a deleterious indirect effect linking birth weight to later adiposity.

Postnatal height and adiposity gain, childhood blood pressure and prehypertension risk in an Asian birth cohort

OBJECTIVE

There have been hypotheses that early life adiposity gain may influence blood pressure (BP) later in life. We examined associations between timing of height, body mass index (BMI) and adiposity gains in early life with BP at 48 months in an Asian pregnancy-birth cohort.

METHODS

In 719 children, velocities for height, BMI and abdominal circumference (AC) were calculated at five intervals [0-3, 3-12, 12-24, 24-36 and 36-48 months]. Triceps (TS) and subscapular skinfold (SS) velocities were calculated between 0-18, 18-36 and 36-48 months. Systolic (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) was measured at 48 months. Growth velocities at later periods were adjusted for growth velocities in preceding intervals, as well as measurements at birth.

RESULTS

After adjusting for confounders and child height at BP measurement, each unit z-score gain in BMI, AC, TS and SS velocities at 36-48 months were associated with 2.3 (95% CI:1.6, 3.1), 2.1 (1.3, 2.8), 1.4 (0.6, 2.2) and 1.8 (1, 2.6) mmHg higher SBP respectively, and 0.9 (0.4, 1.4), 0.9 (0.4, 1.3), 0.6 (0.1, 1.1) and 0.8 (0.3, 1.3) mmHg higher DBP respectively. BMI and adiposity velocities (AC, TS or SS) at various intervals in the first 36 months however, were not associated with BP. Faster BMI, AC, TS and SS velocities, but not height, at 36-48 months were associated with 0.22 (0.15, 0.29), 0.17 (0.10, 0.24), 0.11 (0.04, 0.19) and 0.15 (0.08, 0.23) units higher SBP z-score respectively, and OR=1.46 (95% CI: 1.13-1.90), 1.49 (1.17-1.92), 1.45 (1.09-1.92) and 1.43 (1.09, 1.88) times higher risk of prehypertension/hypertension respectively at 48 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicated that faster BMI and adiposity (AC, TS or SS) velocities only at the preceding interval before 48 months (36-48 months), but not at earlier intervals in the first 36 months, are predictive of BP and prehypertension/hypertension at 48 months.

Human milk and breastfeeding: An intervention to mitigate toxic stress

The American Academy of Nursing has identified toxic stress in childhood as a health policy concern of high priority. Adult diseases (e.g., obesity, diabetes, hypertension and cardiovascular disease) should be viewed as developmental disorders that begin early in life that could be reduced with the alleviation of toxic stress in childhood. The provision of human milk/breastfeeding is an evidence-based intervention that may hold the greatest potential to mitigate the effects of toxic stress from the moment of birth. Assisting families to make an informed choice to initiate and continue breastfeeding from birth has the potential to address both the disparity in the quality of nutrition provided infants and the economic stress experienced by families who purchase formula. The Expert Panel on Breastfeeding endorses initiatives to improve the initiation, duration, and exclusivity of breastfeeding to mitigate the effects of toxic stress in this call to action for research to build the evidence to support these critical relationships.

Early Weight Gain, Linear Growth, and Mid-Childhood Blood Pressure: A Prospective Study in Project Viva

In recent years, the prevalence of hypertension and prehypertension increased markedly among children and adolescents, highlighting the importance of identifying determinants of elevated blood pressure early in life. Low birth weight and rapid early childhood weight gain are associated with higher future blood pressure. However, few studies have examined the timing of postnatal weight gain in relation to later blood pressure, and little is known regarding the contribution of linear growth. We studied 957 participants in Project Viva, an ongoing US prebirth cohort. We examined the relations of gains in body mass index z-score and length/height z-score during 4 early life age intervals (birth to 6 months, 6 months to 1 year, 1 to 2 years, and 2 to 3 years) with blood pressure during mid-childhood (6-10 years) and evaluated whether these relations differed by birth size. After accounting for confounders, each additional z-score gain in body mass index during birth to 6 months and 2 to 3 years was associated with 0.81 (0.15, 1.46) and 1.61 (0.33, 2.89) mm Hg higher systolic blood pressure, respectively. Length/height gain was unrelated to mid-childhood blood pressure, and there was no evidence of effect modification by birth size for body mass index or length/height z-score gain. Our findings suggest that more rapid gain in body mass index during the first 6 postnatal months and in the preschool years may lead to higher systolic blood pressure in mid-childhood, regardless of size at birth. Strategies to reduce accrual of excess adiposity during early life may reduce mid-childhood blood pressure, which may also impact adult blood pressure and cardiovascular health.

Modelling subject-specific childhood growth using linear mixed-effect models with cubic regression splines

Background

Childhood growth is a cornerstone of pediatric research. Statistical models need to consider individual trajectories to adequately describe growth outcomes. Specifically, well-defined longitudinal models are essential to characterize both population and subject-specific growth. Linear mixed-effect models with cubic regression splines can account for the nonlinearity of growth curves and provide reasonable estimators of population and subject-specific growth, velocity and acceleration.

Methods

We provide a stepwise approach that builds from simple to complex models, and account for the intrinsic complexity of the data. We start with standard cubic splines regression models and build up to a model that includes subject-specific random intercepts and slopes and residual autocorrelation. We then compared cubic regression splines vis-à-vis linear piecewise splines, and with varying number of knots and positions. Statistical code is provided to ensure reproducibility and improve dissemination of methods. Models are applied to longitudinal height measurements in a cohort of 215 Peruvian children followed from birth until their fourth year of life.

Results

Unexplained variability, as measured by the variance of the regression model, was reduced from 7.34 when using ordinary least squares to 0.81 (p < 0.001) when using a linear mixed-effect models with random slopes and a first order continuous autoregressive error term. There was substantial heterogeneity in both the intercept (p < 0.001) and slopes (p < 0.001) of the individual growth trajectories. We also identified important serial correlation within the structure of the data (ρ = 0.66; 95 % CI 0.64 to 0.68; p < 0.001), which we modeled with a first order continuous autoregressive error term as evidenced by the variogram of the residuals and by a lack of association among residuals. The final model provides a parametric linear regression equation for both estimation and prediction of population- and individual-level growth in height. We show that cubic regression splines are superior to linear regression splines for the case of a small number of knots in both estimation and prediction with the full linear mixed effect model (AIC 19,352 vs. 19,598, respectively). While the regression parameters are more complex to interpret in the former, we argue that inference for any problem depends more on the estimated curve or differences in curves rather than the coefficients. Moreover, use of cubic regression splines provides biological meaningful growth velocity and acceleration curves despite increased complexity in coefficient interpretation.

Conclusions

Through this stepwise approach, we provide a set of tools to model longitudinal childhood data for non-statisticians using linear mixed-effect models.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12982-015-0038-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Rapid increases in infant adiposity and overweight/obesity in childhood are associated with higher central and brachial blood pressure in early adulthood

Background:

Small size at birth and greater BMI in childhood are associated with greater brachial blood pressure (BP) in later life. Aortic (central) BP differs from brachial BP and is more predictive of organ damage and cardiovascular events; the relationship between BMI in childhood and central BP is not known.

Methods:

Using data from 3154 people from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, we assessed associations between repeated measures of BMI from birth to age 10 with central and brachial BP at age 17.

Results:

Lower BMI at birth (thinness) was associated with greater central and brachial BP. No associations were seen between BMI in early childhood (<7 years) and later BP, but greater BMI from 7 to 10 years was associated with higher BP. Associations were similar for central and brachial SBP and for DBP, and were stronger in males compared with females. The highest BP was seen in participants who were low-birth-weight and overweight or obese at both the end of infancy (age 2) and at the time of BP assessment (age 17); mean central SBP was 104.2 mmHg (SD = 11.0) compared with 100.7 (SD = 10.5) in participants who were normal-birth-weight and overweight or obese at 2 and 17 years.

Conclusion:

Small size at birth followed by rapid adiposity gain in infancy and continued overweight/obesity are associated with greater BP in young adulthood. These findings emphasize the importance of maintenance of normal weight in childhood for the prevention of high BP.

Associations between early body mass index trajectories and later metabolic risk factors in European children: the IDEFICS study

Faster growth seems to be a common factor in several hypotheses relating early life exposures to subsequent health. This study aims to investigate the association between body mass index (BMI) trajectories during infancy/childhood and later metabolic risk in order to identify sensitive periods of growth affecting health. In a first step, BMI trajectories of 3301 European children that participated in the multi-centre Identification and Prevention of Dietary and Lifestyle-induced Health Effects in Children and Infants (IDEFICS) study were modelled using linear-spline mixed-effects models. The estimated random coefficients indicating initial subject-specific BMI and rates of change in BMI over time were used as exposure variables in a second step and related to a metabolic syndrome (MetS) score and its single components based on conditional regression models (mean age at outcome assessment: 8.5 years). All exposures under investigation, i.e. BMI at birth, rates of BMI change during infancy (0 to <9 months), early childhood (9 months to <6 years) and later childhood (≥6 years) as well as current BMI z-score were significantly associated with the later MetS score. Associations were strongest for the rate of BMI change in early childhood (1.78 [1.66; 1.90]; β estimate and 99 % confidence interval) and current BMI z-score (1.16 [0.96; 1.38]) and less pronounced for BMI at birth (0.62 [0.47; 0.78]). Results slightly differed with regard to the single metabolic factors. Starting from birth rapid BMI growth, especially in the time window of 9 months to <6 years, is significantly related to later metabolic risk in children. Much of the associations of early BMI growth may further be mediated through the effects on subsequent BMI growth.

Weight trajectories through infancy and childhood and risk of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in adolescence: the ALSPAC study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Adiposity is a key risk factor for NAFLD. Few studies have examined prospective associations of infant and childhood adiposity with subsequent NAFLD risk. We examined associations of weight-for-height trajectories from birth to age 10 with liver outcomes in adolescence, and assessed the extent to which associations are mediated through fat mass at the time of outcome assessment.

METHODS

Individual trajectories of weight and height were estimated for participants in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children using random-effects linear-spline models. Associations of birthweight (adjusted for birth length) and weight change (adjusted for length/height change) from 0-3 months, 3 months-1 y, 1-3 y, 3-7 y, and 7-10 y with ultrasound scan (USS) determined liver fat and stiffness, and serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) at mean age 17.8 y were assessed with linear and logistic regressions. Mediation by concurrent fat mass was assessed with adjustment for fat mass at mean age 17.8 y.

RESULTS

Birth weight was positively associated with liver stiffness and negatively with ALT and AST. Weight change from birth to 1 y was not associated with outcomes. Weight change from 1-3 y, 3-7 y, and 7-10 y was consistently positively associated with USS and blood-based liver outcomes. Adjusting for fat mass at mean age 17.8 y attenuated associations toward the null, suggesting associations are largely mediated by concurrent body fatness.

CONCLUSIONS

Greater rates of weight-for-height change between 1 y and 10 y are consistently associated with adverse liver outcomes in adolescence. These associations are largely mediated through concurrent fatness.

Beyond birth-weight: early growth and adolescent blood pressure in a Peruvian population

Background. Longitudinal investigations into the origins of adult essential hypertension have found elevated blood pressure in children to accurately track into adulthood, however the direct causes of essential hypertension in adolescence and adulthood remains unclear.

Methods. We revisited 152 Peruvian adolescents from a birth cohort tracked from 0 to 30 months of age, and evaluated growth via monthly anthropometric measurements between 1995 and 1998, and obtained anthropometric and blood pressure measurements 11–14 years later. We used multivariable regression models to study the effects of infantile and childhood growth trends on blood pressure and central obesity in early adolescence.

Results. In regression models adjusted for interim changes in weight and height, each 0.1 SD increase in weight for length from 0 to 5 months of age, and 1 SD increase from 6 to 30 months of age, was associated with decreased adolescent systolic blood pressure by 1.3 mm Hg (95% CI −2.4 to −0.1) and 2.5 mm Hg (95% CI −4.9 to 0.0), and decreased waist circumference by 0.6 (95% CI −1.1 to 0.0) and 1.2 cm (95% CI −2.3 to −0.1), respectively. Growth in infancy and early childhood was not significantly associated with adolescent waist-to-hip ratio.

Conclusions. Rapid compensatory growth in early life has been posited to increase the risk of long-term cardiovascular morbidities such that nutritional interventions may do more harm than good. However, we found increased weight growth during infancy and early childhood to be associated with decreased systolic blood pressure and central adiposity in adolescence.

Simulated growth trajectories and blood pressure in adolescence: Hong Kong's Chinese Birth Cohort

BACKGROUND

Patterns and amounts of growth may determine adult blood pressure. Growth at different phases is correlated and affects current size, making effects on blood pressure difficult to distinguish. We decomposed growth to 13 years into independent associations with blood pressure and estimated how reaching the same size by different routes could affect adolescent blood pressure.

METHODS

Using estimates from partial least squares for the associations of birth weight, height, and BMI at 3 months, growth at 3-9 months, 9-36 months, 3-8 years and 8-13 years and size at 13 years with SBP and DBP in 5247 term births (67% follow-up) from Hong Kong's 'Children of 1997' Birth Cohort, we estimated SBP and DBP at 13 years for 99 simulated growth trajectories resulting in the same size using nonparametric bootstrapping.

RESULTS

High birth weight followed by slower growth was associated with lower SBP in both sexes and DBP in boys. Greater height to 3 years followed by slower height growth was associated with lower SBP in boys. Higher BMI until 9 months followed by slower BMI growth was associated with lower blood pressure in boys.

CONCLUSION

High birth weight or larger early size was associated with lower blood pressure if followed by slower later growth, consistent with the fetal origin hypothesis. However, whether these patterns are due to fetal and infant metabolic programming or to allowing slower growth at periods when rapid growth is harmful is unknown.

Effects of promoting longer-term and exclusive breastfeeding on cardiometabolic risk factors at age 11.5 years: a cluster-randomized, controlled trial

BACKGROUND

The duration and exclusivity of breastfeeding in infancy have been inversely associated with future cardiometabolic risk. We investigated the effects of an experimental intervention to promote increased duration of exclusive breastfeeding on cardiometabolic risk factors in childhood.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We followed-up children in the Promotion of Breastfeeding Intervention Trial, a cluster-randomized trial of a breastfeeding promotion intervention based on the World Health Organization/United Nations Children's Fund Baby-Friendly Hospital Initiative. In 1996 to 1997, 17 046 breastfeeding mother-infant pairs were enrolled from 31 Belarusian maternity hospitals and affiliated polyclinics (16 intervention versus 15 control sites); 13 879 (81.4%) children were followed up at 11.5 years, with 13 616 (79.9%) who had fasted and did not have diabetes mellitus. The outcomes were blood pressure; fasting insulin, adiponectin, glucose, and apolipoprotein A1; and the presence of metabolic syndrome. Analysis was by intention to treat, accounting for clustering within hospitals/clinics. The intervention substantially increased breastfeeding duration and exclusivity in comparison with the control arm (43% versus 6% and 7.9% versus 0.6% exclusively breastfed at 3 and 6 months, respectively). Cluster-adjusted mean differences at 11.5 years between experimental versus control groups were as follows: 1.0 mm Hg (95% confidence interval, -1.1 to 3.1) for systolic and 0.8 mm Hg (-0.6 to 2.3) for diastolic blood pressure; -0.1 mmol/L (-0.2 to 0.1) for glucose; 8% (-3% to 34%) for insulin; -0.3 μg/mL (-1.5 to 0.9) for adiponectin; and 0.0 g/L (-0.1 to 0.1) for apolipoprotein A1. The cluster-adjusted odds ratio for metabolic syndrome, comparing experimental versus control groups, was 1.21 (0.85 to 1.72).

CONCLUSIONS

An intervention to improve breastfeeding duration and exclusivity among healthy term infants did not influence cardiometabolic risk factors in childhood.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials: ISRCTN37687716 (http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN37687716). URL: http://clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01561612.

Risk factors associated with high blood pressure in two-to five-year-old children

BACKGROUND

Over recent decades, the prevalence of high blood pressure (BP) has increased among children. Several risk factors are involved in the genesis of high BP during childhood, and their early identification can prevent the development of that disease.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the prevalence of high BP and associated factors in children.

METHODS

Cross-sectional, population-based study, carried out at the household. This study included 276 two- to five-year-old children in the city of Goiânia, state of Goiás, and assessed their BP, sociodemographic characteristics, birth weight, high BP family history, passive smoking, maternal breastfeeding, dietary habits, sedentary lifestyle and nutritional status. Poisson regression was used to assess the association between risk factors and high BP.

RESULTS

Their mean age was 3.1 ± 0.79 years, and high BP and overweight were observed in 19.9% and 11.2% of the children, respectively. Direct association of high BP was identified with age [prevalence ratio (PR) = 2.3; 95%CI: 1.2 - 4.8; p = 0.017] and overweight (PR = 2.0; 95%CI: 1.2 - 3.6; p = 0.014). No other variable associated with high BP.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of high BP in children was high. Overweight and younger children had greater prevalence of high BP.

Linear spline multilevel models for summarising childhood growth trajectories: A guide to their application using examples from five birth cohorts

Childhood growth is of interest in medical research concerned with determinants and consequences of variation from healthy growth and development. Linear spline multilevel modelling is a useful approach for deriving individual summary measures of growth, which overcomes several data issues (co-linearity of repeat measures, the requirement for all individuals to be measured at the same ages and bias due to missing data). Here, we outline the application of this methodology to model individual trajectories of length/height and weight, drawing on examples from five cohorts from different generations and different geographical regions with varying levels of economic development. We describe the unique features of the data within each cohort that have implications for the application of linear spline multilevel models, for example, differences in the density and inter-individual variation in measurement occasions, and multiple sources of measurement with varying measurement error. After providing example Stata syntax and a suggested workflow for the implementation of linear spline multilevel models, we conclude with a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of the linear spline approach compared with other growth modelling methods such as fractional polynomials, more complex spline functions and other non-linear models.

A critical evaluation of statistical approaches to examining the role of growth trajectories in the developmental origins of health and disease

The developmental origins of health and disease hypothesis suggests that small birth size in conjunction with rapid compensatory childhood growth might yield a greater risk of developing chronic diseases in later life. For example, there is evidence that people who developed coronary heart disease and diabetes experienced different growth trajectories from those who did not develop these diseases. However, some of the methods used in these articles may have been flawed. We critically evaluate proposed approaches for identifying the growth trajectories distinctive to those developing later disease and identifying critical phases of growth during the early lifecourse. Among the approaches we examined (tracing the z-scores, lifecourse plots and models, lifecourse path analysis, conditional body size analysis, multilevel analysis, latent growth curve models and growth mixture models) conditional body size analysis, multilevel analysis, latent growth curve models and growth mixture models are least prone to collinearity problems caused by repeated measures. Multilevel analysis is more flexible when body size is not measured at the same age for all cohort members. Strengths and weaknesses of each approach are illustrated using real data. Demonstrating the influence of growth trajectories on later disease is complex and challenging; therefore, it is likely that a combination of approaches will be required to unravel the complexity in lifecourse research.

Describing differences in weight and length growth trajectories between white and Pakistani infants in the UK: analysis of the Born in Bradford birth cohort study using multilevel linear spline models

OBJECTIVE

To describe the growth pattern from birth to 2 years of UK-born white British and Pakistani infants.

DESIGN

Birth cohort.

SETTING

Bradford, UK.

PARTICIPANTS

314 white British boys, 383 Pakistani boys, 328 white British girls and 409 Pakistani girls.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Weight and length trajectories based on repeat measurements from birth to 2 years.

RESULTS

Linear spline multilevel models for weight and length with knot points at 4 and 9 months fitted the data well. At birth Pakistani boys were 210 g lighter (95% CI -290 to -120) and 0.5 cm shorter (-1.04 to 0.02) and Pakistani girls were 180 g lighter (-260 to -100) and 0.5 cm shorter (-0.91 to -0.03) than white British boys and girls, respectively. Pakistani infants gained length faster than white British infants between 0 and 4 months (+0.3 cm/month (0.1 to 0.5) for boys and +0.4 cm/month (0.2 to 0.6) for girls) and gained more weight per month between 9 and 24 months (+10 g/month (0 to 30) for boys and +30 g/month (20 to 40) for girls). Adjustment for maternal height attenuated ethnic differences in weight and length at birth, but not in postnatal growth. Adjustment for other confounders did not explain differences in any outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Pakistani infants were lighter and had shorter predicted mean length at birth than white British infants, but gained weight and length quicker in infancy. By age 2 years both ethnic groups had similar weight, but Pakistani infants were on average taller than white British infants.

Cohort profile: The promotion of breastfeeding intervention trial (PROBIT)

The PROmotion of Breastfeeding Intervention Trial (PROBIT) is a multicentre, cluster-randomized controlled trial conducted in the Republic of Belarus, in which the experimental intervention was the promotion of increased breastfeeding duration and exclusivity, modelled on the Baby-friendly hospital initiative. Between June 1996 and December 1997, 17,046 mother-infant pairs were recruited during their postpartum hospital stay from 31 maternity hospitals, of which 16 hospitals and their affiliated polyclinics had been randomly assigned to the arm of PROBIT investigating the promotion of breastfeeding and 15 had been assigned to the control arm, in which breastfeeding practices and policies in effect at the time of randomization was continued. Of the mother-infant pairs originally recruited for the study, 16,492 (96.7%) were followed at regular intervals until the infants were 12 months of age (PROBIT I) for the outcomes of breastfeeding duration and exclusivity; gastrointestinal and respiratory infections; and atopic eczema. Subsequently, 13,889 (81.5%) of the children from these mother-infant pairs were followed-up at age 6.5 years (PROBIT II) for anthropometry, blood pressure (BP), behaviour, dental health, cognitive function, asthma and atopy outcomes, and 13,879 (81.4%) children were followed to the age of 11.5 years (PROBIT III) for anthropometry, body composition, BP, and the measurement of fasted glucose, insulin, adiponectin, insulin-like growth factor-I, and apolipoproteins. The trial registration number for Current Controlled Trials is ISRCTN37687716 and that for ClinicalTrials.gov is NCT01561612. Proposals for collaboration are welcome, and enquires about PROBIT should be made to an executive group of the study steering committee (M.S.K., R.M.M., and E.O.). More information, including information about how to access the trial data, data collection documents, and bibliography, is available at the trial website (http://www.bristol.ac.uk/social-community-medicine/projects/probit/).

Associations of postnatal growth with asthma and atopy: the PROBIT Study

BACKGROUND

It has been hypothesised that postnatal weight and length/height gain are variously related to wheeze, asthma and atopy; however, supporting evidence is limited and inconsistent.

METHODS

Weights and lengths/heights of 12,171 term infants were measured from birth to 12 months and at 6.5 yr and extracted from polyclinic records prospectively obtained between 12 and 60 months. Atopic phenotypes were ascertained at 6.5 yr with the International Study of Asthma and Allergy in Childhood questionnaire and skin prick tests. Logistic regression models investigated whether rates of weight and length/height gain from infancy to mid-childhood were associated with atopy phenotypes that have occurred ever or in the last 12 months.

RESULTS

After controlling for confounders and prior weight and length/height gain, all weight gain variables except birth weight were positively associated with ever having wheezed (p < 0.1). A one s.d. increase in weight gain rate between 0 and 3 months was associated with a 12% increase (2-23%) in allergic rhinitis ever. No other consistent patterns of association were found for weight gain or length/height gain rate between 0 and 60 months with atopic outcomes at 6.5 yr. In contrast, all atopy outcomes except for ever having asthma were associated with current weight and height, even after controlling for prior growth.

CONCLUSION

Current height and weight are more strongly associated with the development of atopic phenotypes in childhood than patterns of infant and early childhood growth, which may well reflect reverse causality (atopy effects on growth) or residual confounding by an unknown common cause of growth and atopy.

Early life growth trajectories and future risk for overweight

Objective:

Standard approaches have found that rapid growth during the first 2 years of life is a risk factor for overweight in later childhood. Our objective was to test whether growth velocity, independent of concurrent size, was associated with overweight using a nonlinear random-effects model that allows for enhanced specifications and estimations.

Methods:

Longitudinal data from a birth cohort in Mexico (n=586) were used to estimate growth trajectories over 0–24 months for body mass index (BMI), length and weight using the SuperImposition by Translation and Rotation (SITAR) models. The SITAR models use a nonlinear random-effects model to estimate an average growth curve for BMI, length and weight and each participant's deviation from this curve on three dimensions—size, velocity and timing of peak velocity. We used logistic regression to estimate the association between overweight status at 7–9 years and size, velocity and timing of BMI, length and weight trajectories during 0–24 months. We tested whether any association between velocity and overweight varied by relative size during 0–24 months or birth weight.

Results:

SITAR models explained the majority of the variance in BMI (73%), height (86%) and weight (85%) between 0–24 months. When analyzed individually, relative BMI/length/weight (size) and BMI/length/weight velocity during 0–24 months were each associated with increased odds of overweight in late childhood. Associations for timing of peak velocity varied by anthropometric measure. However, in the mutually adjusted models, only relative BMI/length/weight (size) remained statistically significant. We found no evidence that any association between velocity and overweight varied by size during 0–24 months or birth weight.

Conclusions:

After mutual adjustment, size during 0–24 months of life (as opposed to birth size), but not velocity or timing of peak velocity, was most consistently associated with overweight in later childhood.